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May 22, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Thurs., May 22, 2008, 8:40am ET

Yesterday from the Westin Our Lucaya Resort on Grand Bahama Island, I took time out of a busy schedule (LOL) to warn “…What that means for traders is that the Bull phase that started in mid-March (11731.6 low for the DJIA) may have hit a cycle high yesterday at 13136.69 for the DJIA.” ADDENDUM

"Forward, Upward, Onward Together" may be the official motto of The Bahamas, but except for the last word, possibly, it’s not the way this market is headed.

Yesterday, the DJIA closed at 12601.


ADDENDUM

The SEC Office of Interactive Disclosure has created the first in a series of podcasts designed to help answer questions about the use of interactive data for corporate filings. The first one is here.

What the SEC would like to do for follow-ups is to address questions from interested parties about this important topic. As you may know, the SEC is planning on requiring all public companies to file 10-Q and 10-K (quarterly and annual reports) in this format within three years, starting in January 2009 for the 500 largest companies, then expanding by some 1700 for year two and the rest by the year after that.

In my opinion, this interactive data initiative will revolutionize the timeliness of data in the public's hands, and also bring about a whole new world of transparency. I anticipate that thousands of you will write analytic programs to study this freely accessible data.

While the SEC are in the comment period of the rule and cannot comment on the rule itself, they will certainly field most questions from you. So if you are interested, feel free to email any and all questions to Mark Story at StoryM@sec.gov.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 22, 2008 08:40:21 AM | Category: Community Chat

Discourse

This is an intriguing webcast, recorded on Tuesday during Warren Buffett's European sojourn, in which he shares his investment philosophy with MBA students of IMD Business School in Lausanne.

Buffett describes his approach to selecting investments, interspersed with frequent one-liners that underline his down-to-earth humor.

Here is the URL: http://tinyurl.com/66y3eq

This webcast is long, but great viewing material.

Posted by: prieur [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 8:52 AM [link]

Cara 100 Update:

RIMM - New Coverage initiated with an Equal Weight rating @ First Analysis Securities

Posted by: Bull Hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:01 AM [link]

ESLR- bidding at 11.91...congrats to believers, and thank you to vinod...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:13 AM [link]

ESLR- make that 12.08...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:14 AM [link]

ESLR
wow! up 30% already.
I sold some at 11.35 thinking that was too much upside for a day
Also enjoying the ride on STP today. STP came out with good earnings this morning.

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:17 AM [link]

2nd
i will sell all my ESLR (2000) today
we may get chance to buy at lower price later on
I been burn a lot before for holding
also
I been buying High DUG and selling at Low in my last three trade

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:19 AM [link]

vinod- good decision...
DUG- you and todd harrison ;)

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:22 AM [link]

ESLR shorts will be busy covering today.

Short Interest (Shares Short) 20,622,400
Short Percent of Float 20.04 %
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=eslr

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:25 AM [link]

any thoughts on the following scenario: interest rates up (to contain inflation and boost the USD)-> commodities down-> market rallies (anyway) on lower energy/food prices?

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:25 AM [link]

MY thought
interest rate will stay low untill jan 2009
comodities and oil will go down so inflation will be contain
and market will move higher untill election ? /

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:29 AM [link]

2nd

If energy reverses, think market will rise in response. Airlines could be the big movers, especially if oil pullback is big.

Reference interest rates rising, saw an interesting chart a few days ago in which the Nikkei followed the 10 year bond price. Weren't you holding a Japanese closed or mutual fund recently?

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:33 AM [link]

Cara 100 Update:

CCL - Target Lowered from $56 to $53 @ UBS

Posted by: Bull Hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:34 AM [link]

2nd
yesterday I brought uaua/dal/nwa 200 each

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:40 AM [link]

A fifty minute interview of Jim Dines
http://tinyurl.com/5dqm5h

Posted by: viso [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:43 AM [link]

In re ESLR ... great news about the $1B sales contract. This is particularly intriguing as it should lead to a favorable resolution of the Devens II capital financing. ESLR reported they need approx. $300M to complete this portion of the facility. I expect they will need that capacity to fulfill the sales contract.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:44 AM [link]

long bond dropping fast...TBT now up 2.5%...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:57 AM [link]

path of maximum frustration today-> oil down/market rallies? no one knows, of course, but thinking the oil shorts have been squeezed enough...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:10 AM [link]

Obviously the play with eslr would have been to sell the open and flip to the short side.

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:27 AM [link]

Hindsight being 20/20

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:27 AM [link]

ESLR: Suspect stops are being taken out through the gap - perhaps it will rise again after that. Long: ELSR

Posted by: writersblock [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:30 AM [link]

Opened new positions in some small companies on TSX today and yesterday:

TRY.TO @ 2.04 - Troy Resources - small Western Australian gold producer with a new gold producing operation in Brazil

OPL.V @ 1.13 - Opel Tech - small start-up solar company - very speculative - financings by IBK capital - Bill has mentioned this one briefly in the past.

Posted by: BillySundance [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:32 AM [link]

Cara 100 Update:

UBS - Upgraded to Market Perform @ Keefe Bruyette

GE - Target Price Lowered from $34 to $33 @ Sterne Agee

Posted by: Bull Hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:42 AM [link]

Latest From Colin Twiggs

-The Dow reversed sharply below support at 12750, completing a small double top and warning of a bull trap — and a test of 11750.

-The S&P 500 index falling below 1385 would confirm the signal

http://tinyurl.com/54qccl

Posted by: QT [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:48 AM [link]

out eslr 11.60 bought abr

Posted by: woolybear1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:50 AM [link]

Viso, first time I have ever listen to Dines, very interesting. There is an old timer that comes to Hwawii every year from Canada that swears by Dines.

Thabks for posting.

Posted by: Telestar3d [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:52 AM [link]

correction: Hawaii and thanks

Posted by: Telestar3d [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:55 AM [link]

I feel like some strong insurance is in order for the looming holiday weekend.

Had my pocket picked by buying QID at the open. It seems that AMEX does not operate the same as an electronic market nor the same as the Big Board when
it comes to opening prices.

Scaled out of UXG, buying back the calls I sold a few days ago. Stock went up 55 cents, calls 25 cents. Sweet.

Put profits into VALGF.

Holding onto that buckaroo FXP!

Posted by: robbie fields [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:56 AM [link]

As Bill says UBS is raising $15B by offering stock at $20/share. The stock is up 2% to $30 now. I guess current shareholders are rejoicing that the company is not going bankrupt and forgetting the dilution and that they can buy these shares back at $20.

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:57 AM [link]

Chinese coal company I follow, YZC, up another 4+ today. Little too rich for me with D-W-M RSI all over 70.

Noticed CAF had a few other coal companies listed. China continues to import coal from U.S., among others. Rails and shippers come into this play also. No position at this time.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 11:17 AM [link]

Bulls make money pigs get slaughtered. we're all day traders now. Even warren buffet, peter lynch and jesse livermore.

Posted by: shark_attack [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 11:31 AM [link]

shark, you have that right.

Rough market to trade if you have any travel. Have to go to San Francisco next Thursday with a return on Friday. Plan on having limited exposure with most in cash related instruments. May even park some in one or two of the currency ETFs, but even that can change quickly.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 11:38 AM [link]

Regarding banks' rights issues :

I was trading in Bangkok on a daily basis from September 1997 onwards and watched first hand the Thai banks repeatedly re-capitalizing and certain ones folding overnight.

Another gimmick used was giving away warrants
with a rights issue, effectively creating a (LEAP) options market in their stock.

I met an Israeli in Pattaya who increased his wealth immensely by investing Bt 1,000,000 in ten million warrants priced at the minimum 10 satang each at the nadir of the Thai market.

When banks start raising new capital in times like these, it's time to bail not time to pick up a "bargain".

Posted by: robbie fields [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 11:42 AM [link]

It is definitely time to bail on the financials. Both Lehman and Merril's CEO have been saying they do not need more capital and then days later both companies came out with debt offerings. They are just flat out lying and praying.

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 11:47 AM [link]

There was a very interesting conference held in Phoeniz earlier this month. The conference was held by SIFMA and in that conference was a panel dealing with short selling and regulation SHO. The link below brings you to the transcripts of this workshop. Before you follow the link, here is a tidbit of what is inside;

Anand K. Ramtahal, VP, FINRA

"I don’t know how to fight off an aiding and abetting charge when a customer misrepresents to you and you really do nothing to track the underlying fails that result from that misrepresentation. You have to seriously think about the aiding and abetting violation that is in the regulation right now so it’s, you know, really the Commission is moving in a different direction when it comes to regulation—Regulation SHO and growth of the other issues around Regulation SHO. And quite frankly I can tell you from where I sit, I mean, there is a lot going on, I was talking to my fellow panelists this morning, on the Hill, in Washington, around Regulation SHO. So we can expect to see a lot more in the way of rule making and amendments to this regulation as we move forward. So, the regulation was adopted in January 2005, but there is a lot of discussion around misrepresentation and peripheral issues wherein short and long sales have failed to deliver."


http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/301

Posted by: Patchie [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 12:04 PM [link]

robbie fields

Toured Thailand [mostly the central & northern parts] for a month. LOVED IT! Very nice people.

Posted by: QT [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 12:22 PM [link]


just posted today's TA on GDX,
enjoy.

http://jglobal.blogspot.com

Posted by: dr.cosa [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 12:44 PM [link]

Aurelian - politics? no problem! get positioned ...

Gringos focus too much on the written documents, but Pres. Correa has given signals that "responsible miners" (like Aurelian) will be authorized.

This is the view of a US banker who lives in S. America and focuses on junior miners active there. He seems to have a good feel for the politics, and for mining fundmentals:

http://tinyurl.com/5hnp8a

(Also, scroll down to see his favorable view of Minera Andes, a McEwan investment.)

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 12:51 PM [link]

Does the market close early tomorrow?

Posted by: QT [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 12:52 PM [link]

I love the Google deal with Yahoo.

It shows how Google is expertly playing against MS and then slips around them to arrange a data swapping deal with Yahoo. Which increase its hold and usage of Data, while MS wasted lots of time trying to buy Yahoo, which wouldn't have help it anyway since its internal structure doesn't get it yet.

Just adding to the comment I made a week ago. Google is the company that understands data better than any other tech company. for the next two years this won't shift. However, the next shift will be a company that makes meta-data its main focus. But that's a another tech story. Its ready to happen now, just no one is doing it quite well enough yet.

Posted by: Casey Kochmer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 1:00 PM [link]

Oh here is a link to the Yahoo / Google story

http://tinyurl.com/65ztq4

Posted by: Casey Kochmer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 1:01 PM [link]

craig- taking advice from shark and seamus and exiting TBT in hopes of re-entering lower...who knows, really-> now that i'm out, maybe bonds really sell off?

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 1:04 PM [link]

large-cap tech catching bids...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 1:12 PM [link]

Good move 2nd...we don't want to give back 3% gains....:>)

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 1:29 PM [link]

And the beat goes on:
Food Stamp users growing – Tennessee
Food Stamp users growing – Illinois
Food Stamp users growing – Florida
Food Stamp users growing – Ohio
Food Stamp users growing – Michigan
And so forth ....

I just ran a Google on “Food Stamp” in the news and found the above listed news articles and more. All with the same message but with local statistics for the areas. Hard to say what the spin offs will be from all this, but very likely it won’t be pretty.


Posted by: spot [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 1:41 PM [link]

Fascinating that the WSJ's front-page story is about the International Energy Agency's (IEA) sharp downward revision of it's oil-supply forecast" The article points out almost immediately that the IEA has been pretty sanguine about the building energy problem. Now all of the sudden, it's a "dangerous situation," says the IEA's chief economist. I don't know where people get their credibility sometimes. It would be like Bill announcing breaking news today that we are in a credit crunch and the banks are in trouble. Where's the foresight? Moody's? I could go on....

Posted by: Denny [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 2:06 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

Patchie ... Thanks for the interview regarding SHO and I see Goldman Sachs was virtually the only broker in attendance. I guess they speak for the entire industry!

Why is it we have SHO?

Which is a pretty redundant question but one I ask because it brings me to the next question which is ... Why after some 3 years is its integrity and its function still in question? It seems obvious to me that the documentation and regulation spoken of in the meeting seems "helter skelter" and verging on "good ole boy" style enforcement! As if every broker sets his own criteria of "hit and miss"! The Goldman Sachs rep talks of reminding his reps to "document stuff"! What sort of teeth does SHO have? Seems as if these guys now operate as if there is ZERO ... NADA teeth! No consequences ... am I right?

Trading on the ASX I have seen numerous big pension plans announce they no longer will participate in "share lending" schemes. Wouldn't that solve a majority of SHO issues?

Then you have to ask as a shareholder how do I benefit when my GG shares are lent out to some unknown entity to use against me and bring make my share price go lower? The obvious answer is "I don't benefit"! Who does? Those who hold my shares in custody profit and the shorts have the potential to profit, but the actual shareholder who is working his 40-50 hour work week is totally oblivious to what happens to his shares in his pension plan or ETF ... The assumption is your shares are being managed in a way that will allow you to retire in 20 years. In reality your shares are being managed in a way that will allow the managers of your shares to retire quite nicely in 20 years.

I have to side with the Australian pension plans. Its time to stop share lending! Maybe it is a coincidence but I have noticed since share lending has stopped and the OPES PRIME type stuff the junior explorer metal sector on the ASX has done quite well. The short interest on some of these companies trading in the USA is just astronomical. I believe someone here yesterday mentioned a stock with a 20% short interest!

Naturally the US brokers, like Goldman Sachs, would advise against any elimination of share lending. Naturally ...

Posted by: kaimu [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 2:17 PM [link]

10% of Ohioans are on food stamps. 10%! And in San Diego a homeless shelter is opening overnight parking lots for people who sleep in their cars.

These are some of the data points that lead me to believe the economic situation is much worse than advertised.

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 2:17 PM [link]

Denny

RE: IEA

Why would anyone who is good at forecasting work for any international agency such as IEA? If you are really a good forecaster you are probably working for a for-profit company in some capacity.

I had a meeting last year with an analyst from an unnamed HBB firm who told me had to contact one of these international informational agencies (I will leave both unnamed) to inform them that the methodology in their supply/demand forecast was seriously flawed. He told me he proved the errors to them and they were very embarrased and apologetic.

I just looked at the IEA website and am utterly confused at what this organization actually does. There are a lot of wordy explanations about comparing international energy policies but not much to chew on.................

I'll give their opinions about as much credence as any taxi driver

Posted by: BillySundance [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 2:49 PM [link]

Article with implications for TOG, bonds and stocks.

http://tinyurl.com/52vfy2

Posted by: Telestar3d [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:15 PM [link]

kaimu....

It is not borrowing that bothers me....

It is "failure to deliver".

Posted by: maggy [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:30 PM [link]

i'm turning negative-> selling CAF at a loss...only remaining position is SMN...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:31 PM [link]

trying a little FXP @ 67+...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:34 PM [link]

Short oil / short gold trade from yest working well, so I'll hold on for tomorrow. Effectively this is my "leveraged" bet on a short-term rise in the US$.

Dave

Posted by: DaveB [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:37 PM [link]

FXP/QID/+SMN/DUG-> repositioning for a drop...no logic here, pure instinct...and prepared to be wrong...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:38 PM [link]

I don't think we will get much of a move either way tomorrow. I will wait until next week to buy anything.

Holding calls on DIA 130 JUN, flat around $0.70
Holding FXP @ $78 underwater...

The rest is cash.

Posted by: b0ss [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:41 PM [link]

Re: Eurobonds

There would have to be a fairly serious collapse in the 1 - 2 year Eurobonds for the yield curve to look like this:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

Posted by: FranSix [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:50 PM [link]

2nd

If you buy FXP then this will automatically make you President of the FXP club, since the rest of us are all underwater. So lead us to higher ground ok?

Posted by: QT [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:54 PM [link]

No comment as I pass this along... just a sordid chuckle.
http://tinyurl.com/3ktbcd

Posted by: MtnGntx [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 3:57 PM [link]

Telestar3d, so as Gross says, "With global headline inflation now at 7% there is a need for new global investment solutions, a role that PIMCO is more than willing (and able) to provide." Yeh. I'll bet. Dovetails kind of nicely with the whole bit of hire Greenspan the guy who helped give us this beautiful inflation that we can now provide solutions for. Treasury bonds are so 20th century, now. I wonder what Mom and Pop are going to do about their bond funds imploding while the "with-it" PIMCO investors go riding off into this brave new world.

Posted by: Denny [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 4:41 PM [link]

Gloom about Juniors in Vancouver -

A Casey Research guy is back from a visit to Vancouver, writing there's a feeling of doom and gloom about juniors. This spells "opportunity" he continues, IF you buy smart, and buy low !

http://tinyurl.com/6rpga4

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 5:35 PM [link]

First we had Societe Generale's rogue trader, then we had Moodys' rogue computer, so when the FED finally admits they have no gold left, they can always blame the rogue security guard...

"In response to our request for access to documents involving gold swaps and the U.S. gold reserve, the Federal Reserve Board has provided GATA about 900 pages that are nearly all just copies of correspondence from the public to the Fed. As might be expected, the only documents that seem as if they might have useful information have been withheld from us or redacted into meaninglessness.

But as you may see from the most recent letter from GATA's Washington law firm, William J. Olson P.C. of McLean, Virginia, GATA is pursuing the Fed's appeal procedure in regard to the withholding and redacting, and our freedom-of-information initiative already has proven worthwhile. For it has established that the Federal Reserve does have secrets about the U.S. gold reserve -- that things have been done with their gold that the American people might object to if they were allowed to know, or that things have been done with the gold reserve that can be accomplished only by deceiving the financial markets.

The Fed's acknowledgement that it is withholding information about the U.S. gold reserve may be taken as more evidence that the U.S. government is surreptitiously manipulating the gold market."

http://tinyurl.com/4ajfcs


Posted by: fireworks [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 5:35 PM [link]

Hey, fireworks, US govt manipulation of the gold market is a matter of NATIONAL SECURITY.

Can you imagine what might happen if the terrorists learned about this ? -

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 5:48 PM [link]

Denny, agree with what you say and it is somewhat self serving of Gross. However, they are huge buyer of bonds and their demand should be softening.

Still it is good to see someone with status to say it like it is. This country (USA) lacks leadership and has for a long time. We need fresh leadership on oil policy, war policy and fiscal policy.

Everything we are addressing today with respect to oil should have begun done right after the first oil embargo. Think about how different our situation would be today if we did. Instead we have our “Kahuna’s” being squeezed in a vise by people who despise us.

The only solution I see for the regular guy is to buy the commodity stocks and perhaps Swiss Franc’s and Canadian Dollar’s.

Posted by: Telestar3d [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 5:49 PM [link]

"One in 11 Americans receive food stamps, according to federal statistics."

Ohio is not that far out of line.

Posted by: ksobo2000 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 6:31 PM [link]

QT- LOL..thanks, but i have no interest in presiding over anything...besides, my opinions can change on a dime...the only explanation i can give you for deciding to exit CAF today was an incipient awareness of 'hope' associated with the position-> whenever i find myself 'hoping' a position recovers, i try to sell (and whenever i find myself 'concerned' about a position, i try to hold)-> probably no more than the 'slope of hope/wall of worry' scenario on a personal level...in any case, we'll find out soon enough...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 7:11 PM [link]

More on the reasons behind high oil prices - good article by William Engdahl.

http://tinyurl.com/3zdngf

Posted by: DaveM [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 7:22 PM [link]

Peak Oil = No Big Oil Congolomerates

We'll still have oil, though.

Posted by: FranSix [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 7:55 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

ON FOOD STAMPS
I find it ironic that rural farming areas in the USA typical have suffered from low income levels and less infrastructure due to a smaller tax base. I have noticed a large amount of people here in rural Pahoa, Hawaii who show up at the local health food store "Island Naturals" with their EBT cards in hand. When it is the first week of the month you can hardly find parking at the banks and the food stores because thats when SSI and welfare and social security checks get cashed!


GROUND REPORT
I filled up in Hilo, Hawaii today for $3.95USD for regular grade gasoline. This was just at noon and it this gas station is on the busiest street in Hilo and the place was empty exept for me and one other guy from BIG ISLAND TOYOTA. On my drive into Hilo I have noticed more SUVs and bigger trucks on the side of the road with "for sale" signs! I never see any commuter four cylinders for sale ... Then I hear on the radio FORD is cutting production of its SUVs and big trucks 40% and trying to import into the USA small cars from its subsidiaries in Europe. Sounds like FORD has seen the light! Why does management always wait until looming bankruptcy to change direction?

Cheap gas is gone because cheap money is here to stay!

Posted by: kaimu [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 8:13 PM [link]

$2 mill cap- Sutton who picked VQS.v owns 20%, under NAV of Triant Holdings INC. (TNT.t)

Please email CEO for details on the company or ask any questions - rheath@triant.com. Ask about new business strategy and if the are involved in solar etc.

Go to the 4:23 mark of Mondays nights Market Call - Howard Sutton of Tera Capital http://www.bnn.ca

Competitor taken over for equivalent $10 per TNT share which is now $0.53 - times have changed. Extremely large clients and pretty sophisticated software, fault monitoring for semi conductors, moving into flat panel etc. $6 mill rev on $2 mil cap - needs mass - needs M&A - he is pushing Board for this.

From Stockchase:
Extremely large clients and pretty sophisticated software for fault detection to help monitoring primarily for semiconductor companies. Doing some flat-panel display work. The biggest hindrance is 1) it's a tough market for semiconductors and 2) it is too small and needs mass. Need some M & A.

From my DD and research i have found:
* Cash/Current Assets of $2.3 million - mkt cap $2.2 mil
* Customers - Sony, Panasonic, Hynix, Hitachi, Motorola Samsung, Phillips, Honeywelll, AMD
* Business Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia
* Customers in: Plasma Display, OLED Display and several pilots in LCD Display.
*Raw silicon wafer production.
* Photo Mask production.
* 500K line of credit available for HSBC
* Huge tax loss carry forwards

http://www.triant.com/

Looks like about 40% of the shares are held by larger blocks/shareholders - they renewed the Shareholder Rights plan at the last AGM and I believe they would be a target -just in my opinions.

From last Stockchase: Software that goes into large semiconductor fabs to help monitor and fault detection. Stock price has been a disappointment. One of the largest semiconductor companies in the world is one of their customers. Challenge is its size for operating in a global environment. Its one major competitor was purchased by a US public company for an equivalent price of about $10 a share.

The only major competitor was SiA Automation of France - Bought for $35 Million US. Bought by PDFS on the Nasdaq.
SiA Automation Takeover Article
http://edageek.com/2006/10/25/sia-fault-detection-classification/

http://www.pdf.com/about_pdf.phtml
http://ir.pdf.com/marketguide.cfm

Looks to me like SiA did well with European semiconductor manufacturers like Siemens/Infineon and ST Micro. Triant has done better in Asia, where 75% of the world production resides. Looks like this is where triant has and is focused. They seem to be getting new orders, for new products/industies in new countries.

Howard Sutton of Tera Capital - talks about TNT.to
go to 11:30 small cap show - Fast forward to 9:45 mark
http://www.bnn.ca/shows/past_archive.tv?day=wed

* He owns over 10% and thinks there is big value here
* Software - large Semi-Conductor Fabs - $ Bil facilities
* Fault detection and Monitoring and Machine optimization
* wonderful software - only major competitor SIA - taken over for $10 equivalent of TNT.to

http://www.triant.com

Triant develops software. Our current focus is on the semiconductor industry, where our flagship product, ModelWare, monitors equipment used to manufacture computer chips. ModelWare measures and analyses equipment performance.

Triant is a recognized leader in equipment health monitoring and advanced fault detection. We have successfully installed our software at several of the world's largest semiconductor manufacturers. These customers use ModelWare to improve the overall effectiveness of their wafer fabrication equipment. The software allows them to lower manufacturing costs, giving them a competitive advantage.

Our Mission Our Vision
to provide innovative software solutions that help our customers improve the effectiveness of their manufacturing equipment to be the technology leader, market leader, and global supplier of equipment health monitoring and advanced fault detection technology.

Our Flagship Product - Top of Page

ModelWare is equipment monitoring software that tracks equipment health in real-time and detects emerging faults. You can think of it as a very sophisticated "black box flight recorder" for wafer processing equipment, in the sense that ModelWare can be used to diagnose the cause of an equipment problem.

However, ModelWare goes beyond monitoring and post-event diagnosis. Because ModelWare automatically builds and maintains sophisticated fault detection models, the software can also be used to prevent equipment problems by detecting early signs of malfunction.

Triant's unique multivariate modeling technology makes it possible to combine health monitoring, fault detection, and diagnosis and prevention. ModelWare is the world's first commercially available equipment monitoring software with these features.


Using ModelWare, our customers can:

reduce scrap, increase equipment uptime, and
reduce the use of costly and time-consuming test wafers.


Growth and the Semiconductor Industry - Top of Page

The semiconductor industry has maintained an average growth of 15% per year for the past 35 years. The industry will continue to grow, propelled by the demand for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, computers and telecommunications products.

The steady growth is a result of continuous reductions in the "cost per function" of integrated circuits, 25-30% per year on average. To date, costs have been reduced by focussing on factors related to processing technology: reducing feature size, increasing wafer size, and improving yield.

The industry recognizes that factory productivity must be improved if production cost reductions and growth are to continue. With our innovative software, Triant is pioneering changes in semiconductor manufacturing technology.


Triant develops solutions that improve factory productivity and lower manufacturing costs by improving the effectiveness and productivity of the wafer processing equipment itself.

Overall Equipment Effectiveness - Top of Page

In its recently-published Technology Roadmap, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) identified the need to improve Overall Equipment Effectiveness, referred to as OEE. OEE is an industry standard measure of equipment productivity.

The SIA has surveyed the industry and found that an average piece of wafer processing equipment has an OEE of 45%. In other words, the equipment processes revenue-generating wafers only 45% of the time. The SIA Technology Roadmap identified the need to increase OEE from 45% to 65% by 2002, and to 80% by 2011.

The number of test wafers used is a significant factor in OEE. Today, 33% of wafers processed are used to test processing equipment, to make sure the equipment is operating correctly. Since test wafers do not generate revenue, the SIA goal is to reduce that percentage to 15% by 2002, and to 5% by 2011.

Improving OEE is becoming increasingly important to both semiconductor manufacturers and capital equipment suppliers. Improvements in OEE are absolutely necessary if the industry is to keep reducing the cost of manufacturing integrated circuits.

For semiconductor manufacturers, higher OEE means lower cost and higher productivity.
For capital equipment suppliers, higher OEE means increased product differentiation.

Our Customers and Partners - Top of Page

Triant's customers include Motorola and other leading global manufacturers such as Samsung, Hitachi, Philips, LSI Logic, Honeywell, and AMD. These customers have installedModelWare in their fabs to build a comprehensive diagnosis environment for wafer production.

Triant has built a network of distribution partners that covers more than 90% of semiconductor manufacturing regions worldwide. Our partners provide sales and support ofModelWare in the Europe, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the United States.

Innotech Corporation (Innotech) is our exclusive distributor in Japan. Innotech is the leading distributor of semiconductor technology in Japan.

Master Solutions Inc. (MSI) is our distributor in Korea. MSI is an engineering company specializing in process integration and yield enhancement technologies for the Asian semiconductor industry.


Opportunities for Growth - Top of Page

The combination of capable people and effective products gives Triant Technologies a solid foundation for growth. Since our inception, we have established a reputation for the quality of our products and our customer service.

ModelWare

Triant'sModelWare is a complete, high-quality software solution. ModelWare has proven itself to be extremely robust and reliable in the very demanding environment found in today's wafer fabrication plants. ModelWare meets the need in the semiconductor industry to find new ways to increase equipment productivity.

The Triant Team

The Triant team has proven expertise in a wide range of disciplines, including engineering, physics, mathematics, computer science, and manufacturing. The Triant team also has extensive experience in real-time process data collection, advanced multivariate modeling, and fault detection.

Individually and collectively, the Triant team is motivated and committed to the work of developing innovative solutions. We encourage new ideas. We emphasize and support continuous learning, to keep pace with changing technology.

With a strong, committed team, and an effective product, Triant is poised to capitalize on this opportunity in the semiconductor industry. We have carefully selected distributors in different geographical areas to provide assistance to wafer manufacturers before, during and after installation of our software.

Once we have consolidated our position in the semiconductor industry, we plan to partner with leading companies in other industries to apply our expertise and technology. Triant's unique technology has already been applied successfully in prototype situations for power utilities and in the aerospace and medical industries.

In reaching beyond the semiconductor industry, we will realize our vision of becoming the technology leader, market leader and global supplier of equipment health monitoring and advanced fault detection technology.

Directors of the Company - Top of Page

Brian Harrison
Director and Chairman of the Board

Brian Harrison was appointed to the Board in 2002 and was appointed Chairman of the Board effective January 1, 2004. Mr. Harrison brings to the Board considerable experience in business management and corporate development and also currently serves as Chairman of the Corporate Governance Committee. Prior to retiring in 2001, he served in various senior executive positions for A.T. Kearney Inc., one of the fastest growing and most successful management consulting firms in the world and a wholly owned subsidiary of Electronic Data Systems Corporation. As a member of A.T. Kearney’s Management Board, he was responsible for the firm’s global information technology, R&D, knowledge management, marketing and human resources groups. Prior to joining A.T. Kearney in 1987, Mr. Harrison spent 13 years at Booz, Allen & Hamilton, an international management consulting firm. Mr. Harrison received an MBA in International Finance from McGill University and a BASc (Engineering Science) degree from the University of Toronto. He has co-authored several publications on business management and corporate development.

Robert Heath
President and Chief Executive Officer

Robert Heath was appointed to the Board in 2000 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since August 2001. He also served as Chairman of the Board from June 29, 2001 until December 31, 2003, when the roles of Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer were separated in accordance with prevailing standards for enhanced corporate governance. Mr. Heath brings to the Board and Management considerable business experience to Triant and a proven track record of accelerating growth in advanced technology companies. Previously, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Strydent Software Inc., formerly the Imaging Division of Infowave Software, Inc. He has also held senior management positions with MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) and Cymbolic Sciences, following several years with IBM. Mr. Heath graduated with honors from Bath University in the United Kingdom with a Bachelor of Science in Applied Physics and an MBA from Simon Fraser University.

Richard (****) Deininger
Director

Richard (****) Deininger was appointed to the Board in May 2003. Mr. Deininger brings to the Board a wealth of semiconductor industry experience. He served for 15 years in various executive management positions at AMD, including Director of Manufacturing Technologies where he was responsible for AMD’s corporate initiatives in advanced process control (APC), strategic equipment technologies and yield management & systems. Mr. Deininger led AMD’s award winning planning and design team for its state of the art manufacturing facility located in Dresden, Germany, which is considered to be the most advanced manufacturing operation in the world. Mr. Deininger’s previous experience includes 30 years at IBM, where he held several senior-level engineering and management positions including responsibility for the planning, engineering and implementation of IBM’s semiconductor wafer fabrication lines in East Fishkill, NY. Mr. Deininger holds a BSEE degree from the Newark College of Engineering.

Richard (****) Grogan
Director

Richard (****) Grogan was appointed to the Board in November 2005. Mr Grogan brings to the Board additional financial expertise along with significant management, board and audit committee experience. He is a Chartered Accountant and retired Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Emco Limited. He currently serves on several public, private and community boards as a director and audit committee member or chair, including Virtek Vision International Inc. (TSX: VRK), Bluewater Power Corporation, Baytech Plastics, Inc. and the Sarnia Community Foundation. Mr. Grogan is also a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Quebec and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from Concordia University.

Brian Piccioni
Director

Brian Piccioni was appointed to the Board in February 2001. Mr. Piccioni brings to the Board in-depth knowledge of both the high tech sector and of capital markets. Mr. Piccioni is currently Managing Director, High Technology, Equity Research for BMO Nesbitt Burns. Prior to joining BMO Nesbitt Burns in 1998, he was a financial analyst at Marleau, Lemire Securities, a boutique brokerage firm specializing in researching and financing Canadian technology companies. Mr. Piccioni has been a high technology analyst for over 8 years and has been ranked a top 10 analyst for almost all of that time. Prior to joining the securities industry, Brian spent many years at other high technology companies in various positions. Mr. Piccioni is a Chartered Financial Analyst and has both an MBA from Concordia University and a Bachelor of Science degree from McGill University.

William J. Wignall
Director

Mr. Wignall was appointed to the board in 2006. Mr. Wignall has more than 12 years of executive management experience in the electronics industry and has held senior level positions in key functional areas including engineering, marketing, finance and general management. Until recently, he was President & CEO of Electronics Workbench, a leading supplier of electronics design automation software, which under his guidance was acquired by National Instruments Corporation (NASDAQ: NATI), a technology pioneer and leader in virtual instrumentation. Before joining Electronics Workbench, he was Vice President at Broadband Networks of Winnipeg (now part of Northern Telecom), a manufacturer of wireless broadband networking products. Prior to that he was Vice President and General Manager for Telezone, a telecom operating company, and also held various management positions at Nortel. Mr. Wignall is a registered professional engineer in Ontario and holds a B.A.Sc., Electrical Engineering from the University of Toronto.

Officers of the Company - Top of Page

Brian Harrison
Chairman of the Board and a Director of the Company

Brian Harrison was appointed to the Board in February 2002 and was appointed Chairman of the Board effective January 1, 2004. Mr. Harrison brings to the Board considerable experience in business management and corporate development and also currently serves as Chairman of the Corporate Governance Committee. Prior to retiring in 2001, he served in various senior executive positions for A.T. Kearney Inc., one of the fastest growing and most successful management consulting firms in the world and a wholly owned subsidiary of Electronic Data Systems Corporation. As a member of A.T. Kearney’s Management Board, he was responsible for the firm’s global information technology, R&D, knowledge management, marketing and human resources groups. Prior to joining A.T. Kearney in 1987, Mr. Harrison spent 13 years at Booz, Allen & Hamilton, an international management consulting firm. Mr. Harrison received an MBA in International Finance from McGill University and a BASc (Engineering Science) degree from the University of Toronto. He has co-authored several publications on business management and corporate development.

Robert Heath
President, Chief Executive Officer

Robert Heath was appointed to the Board in February 2000 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since August 2001. He also served as Chairman of the Board from June 29, 2001 until December 31, 2003, when the roles of Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer were separated in accordance with prevailing standards for enhanced corporate governance. Mr. Heath brings to the Board and Management considerable business experience to Triant and a proven track record of accelerating growth in advanced technology companies. Previously, he was President & Chief Executive Officer of Strydent Software Inc., formerly the Imaging Division of Infowave Software, Inc. He has also held senior management positions with MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) and Cymbolic Sciences, following several years with IBM. Mr. Heath graduated with honors from Bath University in the United Kingdom with a Bachelor of Science in Applied Physics and an MBA from Simon Fraser University.

Mark Stephens
Chief Financial Officer & Corporate Secretary

Mark Stephens has served as Chief Financial Officer and Corporate Secretary since 1994. Mr. Stephens brings to Management over 20 years of corporate and financial management experience with public and private companies, including seven years as Secretary-Treasurer of a TSX listed technology company. Mr. Stephens holds a BA (Economics) degree and an MBA (Finance and Accounting) degree from the University of British Columbia.

If you would like to know more about the company and its products, please contact us by email or telephone:

mail@triant.com
Telephone: (604) 697-5090

Posted by: CdnxTracker [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 8:16 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

I have a friend in Las Vegas who knows a guy who started a business that places security guards at foreclosed house locations and is paid by the bank to watch the property to keep squatters and vandals away. He says this business is thriving in Las Vegas!

Las Vegas is full of entrepeneur types. I recall once back in 1999 waiting in a long line at the local Las Vegas DMV to get a drivers license and there were guys there that would wait in line for you so you didn't have to. Then they would call you on a cell phone when they were getting close to the front. I did not take advantage of that service because I thought it would not take that long, but I spent six hours there waiting!

Posted by: kaimu [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 8:22 PM [link]

so tomorrow's the friday before memorial day...plenty of workers already on vacation (including traders and investors), and no one expects much in the way of market movement-> naturally a good set-up for a major move...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 8:34 PM [link]

Silver Price Manipulation through
"Naked Shorting"

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Posted by: QT [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 9:57 PM [link]

A late entry for today, but hopefully better late than never:

The S&P 500 rose 14.6% from its mid-March lows to its recent peak just above 1440. So the bulls had their way for two months in response to the Fed's rescue of Bear Stearns. However, the move to the upside may now be over.

Today's collapse in the number of very strong stocks along with a higher than normal number of very weak stocks has put the market back into a technically weak position. That means any upside should be limited.

Two short-term positives though are the upcoming U.S. holiday and then month-end right after the holiday. If the market cannot rally and repair its current technically weak position over the next two weeks then the writing will be on the wall: the downside will be back in play.

With Meg Whitney of Oppenheimer saying that financial services firms have another $170 billion in reserve builds to go by the end of 2009 (compared to the $95 billion in write-downs and reserve builds already taken), we believe the odds of meaningful price declines in the U.S. stock market are high.

JW
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Posted by: JWibbs [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 10:52 PM [link]

2nd,
I like that strategy Sell Hope and hold concern. I'll bet that will work plenty. I always get screwed when I let either of those emotions make decisions for me.

Rob.

Posted by: Finger Lakes [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 22, 2008 11:19 PM [link]

QT, I'm working in Cairo this week, and thought I caught a glimps of a black swan floating on the Nile. I think she was headed to buy some Gulf oil, but she stopped here to buy provisions for the trip...

2nd, glad to have you join the FXP Club. We are still looking for a President, but as QT noted, you have to be above water to qualify, and most members here don't qualify....

Still expecting the correction, and if oil stays at these levels for long, it will come....

Posted by: allen [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2008 5:40 AM [link]

allen- exciting time to be in that part of the world...todd harrison's thoughts on playing the short side in crude (and he's mentioned elsewhere [along with many others] the possibility that oil has been spiking in advance of something about to happen there):

http://tinyurl.com/572od5

any verbal/visual snippets you can provide while there appreciated...

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2008 7:03 AM [link]

2nd, I'm in the energy business, but not the oil side. My GUESS is that at this price level, we'll see a demand response leading to a price drop, causing speculators to bail, resulting in a sharp drop. However, suppliers now see that their production restraint gets them better prices, so I'd bet on slower production growth keeping prices above $90 through the year. I'd be willing to bet (a small amount!) that a correction happens within three weeks, as global demand data comes in.

Posted by: allen [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2008 7:43 AM [link]

LOL! Search your feelings young 2ndwalker.....
The oil force feels like $1000 gold did a few weeks ago....

Has anyone seen a rather rotund storm trooper lady near the stage preparing to sing? She must be here somewhere.....

EVERYONE seems on the long side, we know where that goes.

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2008 8:33 AM [link]

allen- thanks

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2008 8:44 AM [link]

Good morning.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change to report:

LLTC - Downgraded to Hold @ Deutsche Securities

----------------------------------------------------

Have a great holiday weekend. Thank you to all our vets.

Posted by: Bull Hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2008 9:02 AM [link]

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