Bill - it's an election year. Smoke and mirrors rule.

Charles Schwab seems to be having some issues this morning??

planning to take another shot, jogyp?

I would suspect there is a solution. A redistribution of wealth that may not be directly revealed to the public. I think its up to us to ferret it out - Any ideas?

craig- are you the guy who just unloaded TBT at 73.47? thought it was a momentary misquote, but it's still showing as the high of the day...

These people believe they can disregard reality. They think that just by saying something they can make it so. It works temporarily. Unfortunately, at some point reality comes crashing in.

2nd..I wish! That was a fat finger somewhere!
I saw that too and wondered if it was going to hold...then the bid/ask dropped $3 LOL!

SMN - Waiting for 28.25 to add

Sharkie, just a short note to let you know that in no way am I attacking you personally.

We're just talking ideas, not personalities.
I don't think you are a racist.

I want to discuss the ideas you wrote down, not you or me.

Specfically, if this isn't to be racist, it can't include races or regions. It must be about humans. We can surely discuss immigration and the social engineering of how many people we can intigrate into our society. It's when we start slicing and dicing colors and languages that we start to have a problem and it get's silly.

I think Norm nailed it....it has to be fair across the board, color blind and deaf.

Talk of unemployment is irrelevant when farmers are leaving produce and fruit to rot in the field/on the tree due to a lack of labor.

How many recent immigrants will pick fruit? I see Craig Ferguson (Late, Late night TV) just got his citizenship. Aren't there Americans that can host late night TV? Isn't a Scot taking an American job? You see? It get's bloody silly.

You guys want to see how the market works to squeeze the most out of option buyers during expiration week? Look at the May series for Ryland (RYL). The stock price, which last week was moving down in response to the relentless stream of bad news on housing and the downgrade in their corporate bond rating, has magically recovered to the $32.50 range this week.

This is what's known as inflicting max pain. A on Friday close at or around that price ensures maximum loss for the most option holder (both puts and calls), and maximum profit for those who sold the options.

On which side of the trade do you think the pros are sitting?

In any case, this is more easily achieved in stocks which have relatively thin volume. Like RYL.

The XBRL seems like it could be a good thing. (Even though today there should be no obstacle to immediately publishing financial reports in a standardized format.) I looked at the xbrl.org website and I have to admit I am skeptical when presented with such a one sided sales pitch. While there seem like many benefits, the pitfalls should also be considered.

In the CFO.com article, the following quote stood out to me: "We want to go on record [as saying] we should go slow on legal liability," Does this mean there will be a lot of 'oops' or revisions to financial reports?

This happened last night, and *no mention* anywhere prominent in the mainstream media websites. President Bush is in Israel, and a missile is sent into a populated area of this tiny country, and this is not newsworthy? If this is not (war) news censorship, what is? What a complicit mainstream media - there must be an order out to hush this story as it would be embarassing for this sort of a millitary foul-up to happen when he is visiting and vulnerable. Maybe when news leaked out, that's what caused gold's spike this morning

---------------------------------------

Fifteen people were wounded, including four seriously, by a Grad-model Katyusha rocket that hit a shopping center in Ashkelon just hours after US President George W. Bush arrived to celebrate the state's 60th anniversary.

The rocket, fired from Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza, struck the Hutzot Mall in southern Ashkelon, causing considerable damage. Several people were initially trapped under the rubble. The four people in serious condition included a 24-year-old woman and her young daughter. In addition, 87 people were treated for shock.

In response, the IDF launched an air strike against a Hamas observation post in the Saja'iya neighborhood in Gaza City. According to Palestinian sources, two operatives were killed in the strike.

Medics evacuate a wounded woman from the site of Wednesday's rocket attack.

Palestinians also claimed that the IDF fired artillery shells from north of the Strip. No casualties were reported in this alleged separate strike.

Late Wednesday night, two mortar shells fired by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip landed in open areas south of Ashkelon. No casualties or damage were reported.

http://tinyurl.com/4yv3cl

------------------------------

.

Has anyone else noticed how CNBC cuts to commercial just before the release of the Wednesday crude oil storage report, and does the same for the natural gas report on Thursday? I have watched this behaviour for several weeks now. The report has been out for a minute or so by the time they cut to their reporter on the trading floor, and the prices have already moved.

If anyone wants more timely info (if scalping futures for example) simply do a Google search for "eia crude oil storage" (or natural gas) within half an hour of the release at 10:30 EST. You will get a countdown window that pops up the report exactly at 10:30, before CNBC reports.

Forgot to add the link to today's NG report:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.html

2nd: Are you still holding ROM? Doing well the last couple days....

What to make of this, I don't know... although one can speculate. It's reported in lots of news outlets.

Vatican: It's OK to believe in aliens
1 day ago
VATICAN CITY (AP) — The Vatican's chief astronomer says that believing in aliens does not contradict faith in God.
The Rev. Jose Gabriel Funes, the Jesuit director of the Vatican Observatory, says that the vastness of the universe means it is possible there could be other forms of life outside Earth, even intelligent ones.
In an interview published Tuesday by Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano, Funes says that such a notion "doesn't contradict our faith" because aliens would still be God's creatures.
The interview was headlined "The extraterrestrial is my brother." Funes said that ruling out the existence of aliens would be like "putting limits" on God's creative freedom.

Also:

The big bang theory is a better explanation for the universe's existence than creationism - Father Funes "said that in his opinion the big-bang theory remains the best explanation of the origin of the universe from a scientific point of view. Above all, it's a reasonable explanation, he said. As for the biblical account of creation, Father Funes said it was wrong to expect a scientific explanation from the Bible. "

http://www.catholicnews.com/data/stories/cns/0802629.htm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article3926487.ece

"And the times, they are a changin'"

craig- no...it's been awhile since i've held ROM...what blows my mind is where QID and FXP are right now relative to the underlying indexes...the daily reset must be working against those positions...

In order to successfully argue the illegal immigration debate, don't we first have to define what it means to be a citizen? I believe that is the crux of our problem.

As I understand it, being a citizen means we are exclusive members of a club (whether that is club US or Canada or wherever)? And by being a member of the club, we get certain rights and priviledges over nonmembers. And the laws should be geared toward the rights and priviledges of the members of the club.

From my perspective, it seems like the US club is not that exclusive anymore. I believe that is really where the negative sentiment exists and that mexicans (and by extension hispanics) are simply the most obvious target. Although it is obvious that the illegal immigration influx is coming from many countries. The problem however does not lie with the immigrant (who can blame them really) but with the stewards of our respective clubs. Perhaps it is time we ask the question as to why our stewards or elected officials would seek to not make our club so exclusive anymore. What do they gain, is it at our expense (or has it been already) and what consequences are we willing to accept?

Here is the sole mention I found in mainstream media on the missile into Ashkelon, Israel, from the International Herald Tribune. It editorializes a hypothetical (and spurious in my view) link to Iran. This link seems like war-mongering to me; it's far too early, and convenient for neocon policy, to make any link to Iran. The rest of the relative news blackout persists.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/15/america/15prexy.php

Freedom57: I tried your search string on Google, exactly as written, and did not get a countdown window, nor did any website that might produce a countdown window get returned in the results. What website gives the countdown? Thanks.

back to work after mini vacation
and market is still going up

2nd/craig must have made tons of money

DUG/SMN/QID looks cheap but I am not touching them yet

AA:
Nothing new in Fr. Funes remarks...just restatement of standing views, and echoing Benedict's carefully drawn presentation from Pre-Pope days.

I like that analogy Bert.

First we really need to define the club and it's purpose. They always start this way...you know, Constitution, Bill of rights, By-laws, etc.

The club is usually set-up to benefit the members, to give them parliamentary control in order to do so, and the methods by which this will fairly happen. So far so good?

Now the club needs to determine IF they need more members for various reasons, and to gather the needed data to make an educated choice. I suppose the new members could even be those that have the skills we seek. Beyond that most clubs would run into discrimination trouble if they decided a Cuban fruit picker could be a member by touching a bridge abuttment, but a Mexican fruit picker climbing a fence was excluded.

Now we need a committee of experts that will gather the needed data and present it to the membership in order for us to accurately debate the need for new members, if any. I think I see a problem. We have no experts other than self interested lawyers (read politicians) that have no interest in serving the club. AAMOF, they are serving their own club but claiming they serve the US club and turning the membership against one another for their own gain. What's a club to do? See the By-laws....LOL! I say we vote the jerks out.

If we think about it, America is not really a place. The President, Congress, Supreme Court, Military all take an oath to defend and protect *the Constitution* of the United States. It is the ideas and ideals set forth in the Constitution that makes America what it is. Part of that appeal has been that we have taken *everyone*, the weak, the downtrodden....anybody. That's why the rest of the world puts so much hope in America.
It gives them hope we can all get along and make it.

I do wish the club concept was more wide spread, it would be a good starting point to reintroduce America to democracy and parliamentary procedure so we could fairly debate the real issues of our time.

Re: Timminco

Good synoposis of the Timminco story found on Stockwatch.com. Should be of interest, because it details the activity of notorious short selling interests and captured media at Barron's:

Stockwatch

http://tinyurl.com/4w4uao

vinod- good to have you back...sounds like you cashed out prior to your vacation (always a good idea)...

here's your chance, jogyp...

2nd: Yes, it seems as if the ultras have found a bit of a bottom while the indices still look like they're climbing. We need to examine this divergence closely IMO. Low volume range bound trading, but enough interest in ultras to hold them up?

SMN: Added at 28.26
Solar stocks selling off today.

Watch oil and commodity and metal
When this bubble burst, will keep inflation in check.
Which will keep interest rate low for a while longer
And it will drive this market higher?

[Bill Cara note: But what is going to drive commodity prices down? The slowing economy? The credit crunch? Fed tightening? Too much supply? The answer to that will tell you if the equity market can lift for long if, as and when the commodity price bubble bursts? It's quite possible, in fact probable in most cycles, that the commodity prices are the last ones to go south.]

aa, re the censorship. This is scary. I read the easily available news before coming to the Cara site. No mention of the bombing anywhere. So as a test, after checking out your link, I went thru all my news links. Get this...not even on Al Jazeera. Whats scary is what it means when they stop hiding the censorship.
To C-town... re the imigration thing. man you really blew it for us. We here in north Washington state have been moving all our stuff a few feet north every day so the helicopters from Immigration and Customs Enforcement don't notice. S'ok though, we're working on a black sub...really old surfboards screwed together and wrapped with black garbage bags.
Joking aside, the first paragraph above only makes the second paragraph less fantastic.
Peace from North Puget Sound.
Long WGW EGO, FOS.V GIX PHO CPSL...underwater 4 out of 6

Bill, regarding your comments on leadership today, you'll enjoy reading "Plain Speaking," Harry Truman's oral autobiography.

Truman would say these guys are all being handled by "Madison Avenue". That kind of leadership in his mind is the lowest kind.

On the other hand, we citizens bear responsibility too. Most of us sat there and watched "America at War, The War on Terror" being sold on our TV screens -- and didn't go "this looks like a sell job to me.

The trouble with democracy is its easy to hijack. And probably hard to take back.

Yesterday's sharp selloff on accelerating volume and today's weak bounce feels like a change in trend to me, particularly since the market tried three times to get past 1420 and couldn't and lost momentum in the process. Financials are trading ugly. Options expiration is probably playing a role somehow. We shall see.

sentimenTrader:
Over the past few weeks, technology stocks have taken a clear leadership role. That's a positive thing, as stocks in general tend to do better when high-beta sectors like technology are doing better than more-defensive sectors.

It's a good thing until it gets to be too much, too fast, and we've seen a couple of those indications lately. The ratio of Nasdaq volume to NYSE volume exploded to an extremely high level last week, a pretty reliable sign in the past that things have become too heated.
The forward performance in the NDX didn't look so hot.
The one-month forward return in the index averaged -6.1%, with only 11 days out of 83 showing a positive return. The maximum risk averaged four times greater than the maximum reward during the following month.

If we look at three-month returns, it gets even worse. The average return was -12.7% with only 6% being positive, and a risk nearly eight times greater than reward.

That ain't good, and it's a caution sign for our current juncture.

Oil - I can't find a way to bet against it, although some of you will eventually be right - it will go lower (but when?). At one point I believed that as a dollar-denominated asset, higher oil was partly based on dollar weakness. Now I just think its supply/demand, and oil is proving to have more of an inelastic curve.

DUG does indeed look cheap, but I'm just not willing to take that bet at the moment. Cheers~

aa

here is the news
http://tinyurl.com/4ptvon

Out of my puts DIA JUN 130 @ $3 (bought yesterday $2.60)

Holding on FXP, 90% cash. Work seems to get in the way of my trading if I don't have a feeling of where the market is going. I might wait until tomorrow to find a trade...

Well I happily got out of MRK, and now split my stocks into UXG, DVAX and SBUX.

DVAX while risky seems to be acceptable risk as I got into it at 2.22, and I suspect the vaccine trails will be continued and the head of DVAX just bought a chuck of its stock, with the company having 60% of the stock. It appears to be in good shape to weather the current issues of the current trail issues of its vaccine. If it pops back down I will pick up a little more. UXG just seems to be stumbling like a drunkard right now, but it feels right for now so I went for it.

I like SMN but I think it will go down for another week or two still. I hope to sell 1/3rd of my UXG in a week when it next perks up at all or so to switch over then to SMN at a favorable timing.

an interesting cross relationship chart with regards to DIG and SMN

http://tinyurl.com/67hlg5

I tend to think in terms of fractal patterns, and this chart seems suggest SMN needs another week or two to run down.

Not very scientific, as I dive into this.

Oil looks like it fell off a cliff in the last 10 minutes...down like $3 from its high!

Re: BCA Research

Comments On Gold:

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080512.GIF

Comments On Commodity Currencies:

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20080515.GIF

I think this outlook supports the Commodity Futures Trading charts indicating a neutral trading stance in Gold prices, while favouring commodity currencies. But this will not resolve the cost inflation issue while this is in vigour.

http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php

What I had been looking for was a correction in Oil prices near term, which had not materialized so far. Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow in gold, it would only take a very small change to the inflow of money into the gold sector to resume the uptrend, though its been trading as if it were mid-summer for weeks. The only other time where the money flow was so low was in August 2006.

There had been a very vocal debate about whether buying in gold was either "physical" or just speculative when the price was below $500.- We might see a resumption of "physical" buying (what other kind of buying is there?) as certainly the ~50 tons of gold dishoarded from the StreetTracks ETF was bought "physically." The gold market is the standout in the precious metals sector simply because of the slow inflow of money.

I would say there's a fabulous opportunity to make an argument in favour of the velocity of money here in light of the gold charts. They say supply/demand issues have more or less stayed the same, really the only thing that has differred is the amount of available liquidity in any particular sector. Clearly, oil is being favoured over gold. A very curious way of looking at money, that.

Gold is sitting in the low water mark, very possibly due to the fact that dishoarding of ETF gold is soaking up available liquidity, thus leading to lower cash. (Plus the effect of smaller capital inflow into the ETF.)

jogyp- second chances abound, as usual...nice move...

writersblock: I didn't do a good job of explaining the EIA reports.

Normally you will get the storage report for the prior week if you access the EIA site. However, if you try to access the weekly report in the period about 20-30 minutes before a new report is announced you will get the "countdown" window that shows how many seconds until the report will be released. Your screen will refresh with the new report as soon as it is released.

If you review past EIA weekly reports you know where to find the key data that the markets react to, often a minute or two before CNBC broadcasts the results.

Hope this clarifies the previous post.

bOss, thank you for posting that, will be watching crude near futures today. Probably delayed 20 min.

Easy way to play oil is with USO which goes wildly up and down during the day. Put holders are happy :-) The plunge in the last minutes was unbelievable.

moab:

Good observation of the short-term 1420 triple-top of the S&P. I agree -- I have been selling callings and buying back the puts I wrote.

Re: POO

Well, if the price of oil is to correct, finally we might see a push into the gold sector. Also, that would contradict BCA Research.

Bill

"... in fact probable in most cycles, that the commodity prices are the last ones to go south"

I show your answer to trader here. And they agree with you, they also said that Bill has said many time that for market to go higher, Tech has to lead and it is happening

IF S&P breaks 1420 we might be going higher?

SiO2- nice timing on those USO puts yesterday...

Taking a small bet with DCR. In case oil drops faster..

ultimate combination right now would be a spike in the broad market due to sinking commodities prices...

Here is a review of the ShadowStats hyperinflation article that I posted a few days ago:

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=35614#post35614

He says essentially that it is an extreme scenario but one that is increasing in probability.

moab

based on your chart and experience do you think we break through 1420 or will it pull back. Just looking for your thoughts, I know you can't predict the future [can you?].

I don't predict the future, only try to judge the probabilities. I'm no expert either, just amateur market observer. What I see is several stocks rallying back to the yesterday's breakdown point and you are seeing that on the S&P as well. Chances are they get sold again there. If they don't then the rally may be in tact. But oil is getting sold hard and tech (market leader) is on a weekly RSI sell signal after having come very far very fast.

Lots of risk, that is all I can say.

moab

Thanks!

Re: Airlines

MSN

http://tinyurl.com/5llfcu

If you are into airline stocks, debt ratings are very important at this juncture because they are heavily exposed to the financial sector through third party agreements, thus if credit spreads widen, this takes airlines along with it.

Check out the speculative market leaders AAPL and MA and GOOG: flatlining or selling off even as the indexes hold in there.

Moab: thanks for the hyper inflation link. I was thinking the US to be in this spot in 2010 not now...

The interesting part of the article was that there is no historical counter point to compare what is happening now.

I am following Kaimu's lead and moving to Hawaii off the mainland in August. However my sock drawer can't hold as much gold :)

Bill's tech watchlist is all green except ORCL.

Casey -

I am envious. I often dream of doing the same thing. Kaimu is an inspiration.

Good luck.

moab & others:

The triple top of 1420 in the S&P was obvious, as it was also mentioned yesterday in Trader Mike's and the Kirk Report (scroll down to Wed's post):

http://tradermike.net/

http://www.thekirkreport.com/

My bet is that the resistance at 1420 will be respected this week.

Casey... good move.

I always dreamt of living on the island, but so far opted for the next best thing, Vancouver Island. Hawaii (Big Island particularly) is still my favorite place on Earth. Will withold ultimate judgement though until I visit Bill on Bahamas :)

This is why we need to talk in probabilities. Looks like the S&P will kiss 1420 for the fourth time on the hourly chart. Rule of four indicates that this time it is likely to break resistance. It is also setting up an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Thanks 2nd. You have to be nimble in this market or you are toast. Look at USO now back above 100, amazing. I sold the puts on the plunge.

Food for thought:

The US Department of Agriculture publishes a nice report detailing the percentage of household income that is spent on food for various countries. From the latest report, the countries that spent the least are:

1. US 5.8%
2. Singapore 8.1%
3. Ireland 8.2%
4. U.K. 8.7%
5. Canada 9.3%

Note that the US percentage does not include what is spent on restaurants or take-outs, which is likely a significant percentage.

The countries where people spent the most are:

1. Azerbaijan 51.6%
2. Belarus 47.3%
3. Morocco 44.8%
4. Algeria 43.7%
5. Jordan 43.6%

In terms of per capita dollars spent annually, the picture is a little different:

Least amount spent:

1. Pakistan $18
2. India $141
3. Nigeria $168
4. Vietnam $169
5. China $207

Most amount spent:

1. Norway $3,591
2. Switzerland $3,040
3. France $2,776
4. Japan $2,768
5. Italy $2,765
18. Canada $1,994
23. US $1,848

Moab: Thanks: Its going to be hard and risky to make the leap as It represents the edge of our resources to do this, but that's nothing new for me so going for it. After being around and living in most places in the US, there isn't anywhere I feel I can call home anymore. Many many places I love in the US, but none that fit our wandering lifestyle anymore. However, I will always miss new york city the most.

One of the biggest changes I have seen in the us over 20 years is how the society is pinning people down to a single location. Movement is not as easy anymore. Many of my friends have managed to get themselves on that no fly list for just being politically active... Of course every place is becoming the same under the halls of Walmart and malls...

Vadym: I love the Bahamas and the Caribbean, we would have moved to one of the islands first but for family and business reasons staying in the US for a year or two still. I am in the middle of establishing my new business so have to play that out before leaving the country for the Caribbean.

Seems like the long way to do this, but so it goes. Never question the journey but rather enjoy it for what it brings up and forth in the change.

Anyone else find it odd that the speculative leaders like RIMM, GOOG, AAPL, MA are not breaking out while the S&P is? Leaders are now laggards?

I'm not buying it. Still holding DIA puts and COF puts. Getting hurt on my NEM puts and DUG calls but am sticking with the theme that commodities have to come down soon unless Ben and Hank want a real banger of a recession on their hands.

Rob.

why S&P is breaking out is hard to understand

moab:

Keep in mind that we are effectively 2 sessions away from option expiration. Quite often people trade the underlying (stocks) to hedge their near-the-money option positions, myself included.

Another weird day of everything trading in unison. Bonds up Stocks up Gold up Dollar up and Oil unchanged.

It's like people are throwing money at everything at once. Crazy.

Rob.

Back in: Just bought 20 puts DIA JUN 130 @ $2.50

If we go higher tomorrow, then I will buy 100 puts.

VIX @ 16.31 - very low

Teich

"Quite often people trade the underlying (stocks) to hedge their near-the-money option positions,"

Could you explain that...I am still rather new to the option world. Thanks.

Must still be the path of maximum frustration like Vad says.

Something has to give soon I would think unless we really are inflating another bubble to escape from the excesses of the last three.

Lately it looks like this bubble is in everything but real estate.

Rob.

Does a very low VIX signal complacency and that a turnaround may be coming soon?

Rob.

Low VIX signals complacency but gives no insight into when that complacency will end. Take a look at it in 2006.

June/July 2007 vix was aound 12

Speaking of the VIX, bought a few OTM Nov calls. Would have liked closer to ATM calls expiring 2-3 months out but the spreads are horrendous.

SBUX - up 3.5% after hours but I don't see any news. I sold some June $16 puts recently so I am not complaining, just curious.

ALOHA !!

HAWAII
Is part of the USA, although many people call to order flowers from us here and ask if we SHIP TO THE USA!

Not very favorable tax structure compared to the Bahamas, but compared to California we here in Hawaii are in heaven, especially if you own AG ZONED property and live on it! My neighbors and I have petitioned the local tax authority here on the Big Island to revise tax treatment of farmers even lower than the current $398 annual property tax. Sales tax is a bit over 4% and state income tax is around 6%.

Hawaii has some of the most awesome beaches in the World and is recognized as a World Class Resort for fishing, diving, surfing, boating and golfing.

Hawaii rarely has hurricane storms and we never run out of food and water. The islands here are self sustaining and we have a very high usage of alternative energy. My electricity is all geothermal, but Hawaii does have extensive use of solar and wind power.

Hawaii has very low crime rate. I looked in the paper yesterday and we had six people arrested that day here on the Big Island for mainly petty offenses like not showing up to court! DOG? Hardly ever murder or rape here compared to a murder or two a day in the Bay Area of San Francisco where we used to live. No traffic to speak of and no freeways here either! No crowds at the bank, no lines at the theatre, not much waiting at all compared to California's hectic pace!

No air conditioning or heating required ...

The air is unpolluted except for times of vog from the volcano, which changes and is never permanent. Where I live I have never had vog because tradewinds blow it off to sea.

Because of the low stress lifestyle here even US insurance actuaries list an extra four years lifespan for Hawaii residents compared to the rest of the USA.

Hawaii residents get "Kamaaina" rates, which is a discount for goods and services. As an example I just booked a room at the Hilton Hawaiian Village in Waikiki in August for $190 per night. That's about $100 less than tourists pay for the same room. I have lived in no other place in the World where residents get such discounts from major corporations and local companies as well! Its the ALOHA spirit!

Make the State of HAWAII the NATION OF HAWAII again and get rid of the US welfare system here and go back to being a Monarchy and a TAX HAVEN like a MONACO OF THE PACIFIC! The USA never had the right to invade and occupy the former HAWAIIAN NATION. Still, given history sooner or later Japan would have invaded if the USA didn't!

The only way around all that is to become a TAX HAVEN for the rich and powerful bankers and poltical leaders like Switzerland and declare total neutrality.

That's my HAWAII 5-0 FYI ...

hawaii- i've met many people in the "came here in '71/'95/whenever and never went back" category, and i can understand the attraction for them...personally, i have no plans to leave the bay area, which has always been and remains my favorite place...didn't realize you were in vancouver, vad- that is another area that i would consider as a permanent residence- we came close to buying a vacation condo in 2002, and given the drop in the USD since that time, wish we had...

Re: GloomBoomDoom

Here's a video interview with Dr. Marc Faber~

video.google.com 30min.

http://tinyurl.com/6bqr8q

The mainstream media got around to reporting on the missile attack later today. Who knows why there was such a delay. Maybe the reports were delayed because the "message of the day" this morning from Bush was his speech from Israel. Maybe they needed time to know how to position the event. Most headlines still emphasize the speech as being the big story of the day rather than the attack.

e.g. "Bush strikes upbeat tone in Israel despite new challenges to peace" - Globe and Mail, Canada.

Rather than presenting a clear timeline of the events, articles like in the NYT today make it seem like there was ongoing back & forth fighting, instead of a highly unusual missile launch into the middle of a city, on a very particular day.

That is my take on today's spin doctoring.

Peace, full bellies, and good trading to all

Re: West coast and Hawaii,

My only thing about the west coast is, how do you actively trade U.S. stocks when to do so would mean getting up at about 5 or 6 AM California time, (may be do-able but not fun) and what, 2 or 3 AM Hawaii time(impossible, better stay awake from night b4)? What do you guys do? Set 'em and forget 'em or what? I need my beauty sleep ya know? I flew to Oahu in 6 th grade with my mom and dad, stayed at the H.H.V. Beautiful the way they come around and light the tiki torches around nightfall. But the plane ride was excruciating. Went to the Benihana first night there and fell asleep on the hibachi grill.

I've also kind of wondered if there isn't a delay, several milliseconds or perhaps more trading far from NYC. I know, it's all computers now, but still I wonder if it's been any kind of problem.

ReneSola (SOL) did very well against the solar group today. 2 days in a row. Closed up 17% today.

P&F points to 47.50
Piper J raised target to $40

I am watching rsi, vol to take my profits.

with options expiration who knows where this is heading short term.

**********HORRIBLE NEWS UPDATE***********

CARACAS, May 15 (Reuters) - Mineral-laden Venezuela on Thursday shut the door to new gold projects and threatened other mining and logging concessions in a step by leftist President Hugo Chavez to tighten control of natural resources.

Environment Minister Yuviri Ortega said the South American country will not give permits for any open-pit mines and will not allow companies to look for gold in its vast Imataca Forest Reserve.

"Venezuela will deny environmental permits for the open-pit mine exploitation," Ortega told Reuters in an interview. "Neither private or public companies will for now explore Imataca's gold."

Citing ecological damage, Ortega said the government was also revising all its mining and timber concessions.

OPEC member Venezuela is one of the world's top oil exporters. With its coffers bulging from record crude prices, it feels it does not need to risk further harming its environment with more mining and logging.

"For the moment we do not need to exploit these minerals; as the president says, we don't need diamonds or gold, or coal," she said, but did not give further details.

Much of the Caribbean state remains largely unpopulated and it houses diverse eco-systems including a significant chunk of the Amazon rain forest.

To those of you holding KRY and GRZ I extend my deepest sympathy.

Crystallex's Planned Mine Won't Get Venezuela Permit (Update2)

By Matthew Walter and Stewart Bailey

May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crystallex International Corp. won't receive approval for an open-pit gold mine in Bolivar state because the project may cause deforestation, Environment Minister Yubiri Ortega said.

Venezuela won't allow any open-pit mines for gold, diamonds or coal, Ortega told reporters today in Caracas. Crystallex and Gold Reserve Inc., which owns a copper and gold mine in Venezuela, said on April 30 that they were told Ortega's ministry planned to reject or revoke their permits.

``If it can only be mined from underground, it'll be unlikely anything will be economic as an underground mine,'' Kerry Smith, a mining analyst at Haywood Securities Inc. in Toronto, said in a telephone interview.

President Hugo Chavez's government has nationalized parts of the country's oil, steel and cement industries to gain control over strategic parts of the economy. Crystallex has waited four years for permits to develop an open-pit mine to tap the country's largest gold deposit. Gold Reserve also planned a pit at its nearby Brisas site.

Neither Richard Marshall, a spokesman for Crystallex, nor A. Douglas Belanger, Gold Reserve's chief executive officer, responded to messages seeking comment. Both companies have said in past weeks that they will contest permit denials.

Crystallex fell 17 cents, or 17 percent, to 83 cents as of 4:15 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. The stock has tumbled 81 percent in the past year.

Gold Reserve dropped 22 cents, or 10 percent, to $1.95 in American Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have fallen 66 percent in the past year.

``We have a policy of doing all we can to stop global warming,'' Ortega told reporters awaiting a press conference with Chavez. ``Imagine the damage that would do to our forests.''

Re: Precious Metals Focus

High grade underground mines.

F6

ALOHA !!

"Went to the Benihana first night there and fell asleep on the hibachi grill."

There you have it the first "grilled shark" in Hawaii!! HA!!

I go to bed early and being a farmer I am up at 4am any way! Add in the ASX which is a day ahead and trading as we type and living in Hawaii makes it easier to trade the ASX than the AMEX!

guess I qualify as long term lurker, retired AF in 1980 w/four years in/around vietnam. Had to comment on the Isreli "rocket" attack....nothing sinister as its the sixth long range artillary rocket {12nm) fired in last few months vs the 6nm mile one that they have fired hundreds of times from gaza, but the timing of this one was probably intentional. this site is the first one I look at everyday....the shared kbowledge is truly awesome..thanks bill

The Big Island is my favorite place ever. Like you say, Kaimu, everything is perfect there. Our only problem is being so far away from our extended family that couldn't afford to travel there. That's why we ended up in the Finger Lakes, which is very beautiful but cold in the winter, and not very congested at all because of NY's anti-business and high tax mentality.

Certainly an unintended benefit of our wrong policies but nowhere near the actual freedom you have on the Big Island.

Cheers!!

Rob.

"My only thing about the west coast is, how do you actively trade U.S. stocks when to do so would mean getting up at about 5 or 6 AM California time"

I guess it's a matter of personal preferences... I am early riser, 5 am is OK with me - and I have the benefit of being done at 1 pm, whole day ahead to enjoy life.

2nd, I am actually on Vancouver ISLAND, not Vancouver city :)

Hey Vad, where on the island? I moved from Campbell River two years ago and miss it immensely.

Rugger, southern tip... Central Saanich they call the area although as far as I am concerned, it's all Victoria :)

Yea, I miss that area. Moved from the Island to Yellowknife. Quite a change.

A $22.5 billion stake in the world's largest mining company by China should light a flame under most miners as capital always follows the direction of this Asian heavyweight. Also, there are rumours that commodities demand will soon soar as China attempts to rebuild the infrastructure damage of its recent and devastating earthquake...

"BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, surged to a record in Sydney trading after the Australian newspaper reported China want to team up with an Australian fund to purchase a 9 percent stake.

BHP rose as much as A$2.02, or 4.2 percent, to A$50.00 on the Australian stock exchange and traded at A$49.53 at 1:03 p.m. Sydney time. The possible stake would be worth about $22.5 billion."

http://tinyurl.com/4qp2no

gold trying to break above $900 this morning.

a close above $900 with a follow through of the mining shares on strong volume would make a great case for a short/intermediate term bottom

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Downgrade:

SNDK - to Market Underperform @ JMP Securities

Target Raised:

QCOM - $52 to $56 @ Oppenheimer

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and a better weekend.

SBUX: Peltz took position which explains the run-up. He must read Bill Cara too.

Ok I'll bite....Why is Crystallex worth more today when there is "absolute" certainty that they will never receive the VZ permit than it was 5 sessions ago when there was still a possibility?

Long Golden Star GSS*************

ayye caraambaaaa!!!!!!!!I'm going back to bed guys with my new cash.

Sharkie, re your earlier post, May 16, 2008 9:26 AM:
"Ok I'll bite....Why is Crystallex worth more today when there is "absolute" certainty that they will never receive the VZ permit than it was 5 sessions ago when there was still a possibility?"

I think it's because your previous 2 posts are a regurgitation of what Ortega stated previously and there still is no "absolute" certainty regarding getting/not getting the VZ permit. It's still being rebutted by Richard Marshall, the CVG and Doug Belanger (GRZ). jmo