The twilight of irredeemable debt

Before August 14, 1971, debts were obligations, and the word "bond" was to mean literally what it said: the opposite of freedom. The privilege of issuing debt had a countervailing responsibility: that of repayment.

In 1974 President Richard Nixon embraced the woolly theory of Milton Friedman and declared the irredeemable dollar a monad, that is, a thing that exists in and of itself. According to this theory the government has the power to create irredeemable debt - debt that never needs to be repaid yet will not lose its value - subject only to a "quantity rule", for example, it must not be increased by more than 3% annually. This idea is so preposterously silly that "only very learned men could have thought of it".

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JE02Dj05.html

Tag team again. While precious metals moved up after the rate cut yesterday with the momentum carrying over into Asian trading, it looks as though London was quick to snuff out the flame. Since about mid-March, gold has seen much selling pressure out of Europe which generally is not the case, at least not to this extent.

It is like gold is traded somewhat fairly in a moderately rigged market, Asia, but then is attacked aggressively in much more manipulated and heavily rigged markets, Europe and North America.

Tough to gain traction - Fireworks

David- reference your 1123p post->

i just thought China was a buy after a 50% correction...after jason (veteranwang) pointed out a better way to play the A shares, replaced FXI with CAF...you already know my take on the tone i think beijing wants to set for the olympics-> positive...easiest way to get that is a population that feels prosperous (even if it's a sham)- in that way, beijing differs little from washington...and like washington, i think they'll succeed for awhile...

there will be volatility along the way, so your strategy for trading FXP into the green should work...

good luck...

craig- nice round trip on SBUX ;)

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Changes:

Target Price Raised:

PG - $71 to $73 @ Lehman Bros.

Target Price Lowered:

GRMN - $51 to $47 @ Lehman Bros.
GRMN - $76 to $48 @ Needham

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

"Since about mid-March, gold has seen much selling pressure out of Europe which generally is not the case, at least not to this extent."

Dishoarding continues in precious metals because the StreetTRACKS ETF run by JP Morgan has dumped 50+ tonnes on the market in April. They are dishoarding via the London markets, rather than NY. The gold basis remains very tight, so that's an indicator that demand for bullion is very strong just the same. Gold leases have remained in positive territory.

Regulatory approval for the prevention of tracking sales for StreetTRACKS had been awarded in the last while, because people are sure to complain.

What dumping this much gold on the market will do is to soak up a lot of cash, that will lead investors and traders alike to leverage up. I believe the effect will be an out of season rally in the gold sector.

Anyone attending WGW meeting on May 6th in Totonto?

http://tinyurl.com/6enthn

If yes, Caraistas would appreciate update.

apologies--for typo in prior--should be "Toronto"

I disagree that gold is such a manipulated market. I also think that, in general, we would do well to avoid conspiracy theories in favor of more obvious and likely notions of causality which would be more likely to be correct.

To blame conspiracy theories is a shortcut to logic, an excuse to stop analysis and to blame unseen forces for market machinations which we do not understand. What's that light in the sky? Is it something man made or did the light come from 17 million light years away? Which theory is more likely? Gold's dropping because oil is dropping and uncle beard must, by definition, stop cutting rates soon. Cause what's he gonna do? Pay you to borrow?

re "Totonto-" reminds me of my favorite Far Side cartoon- Lone Ranger looks over at Tonto while reading from an English:Potowatomi dictionary with a wrinkled brow: "Hmmm...kemosabe..."horse's ass."

shark- i think you're right...the human brain is wired to make sense of things...when gaming crowd behavior, unless you're aware of the group dynamics, you can easily be misled into concluding a conspiracy is the only explanation...JMO...

Here's the quote about StreetTRACKS divesting their bullion:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=42256

Other sources:

http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&ned=ca&q=streettracks+gold&btnG=Search+News

I assume this is just a market opening thing, but XLF was down 0.2% and SKF is down 0.4%

Somebody should remind the new traders @ Proshares that this is supposed to be an Ultra Short, not an Ultra Long...

moderating now...

Ron Paul's Book No. 1 on Amazon

“The Revolution: A Manifesto”, released earlier this month, is currently No. 1 on the Web site’s list of top sellers, besting even Oprah’s latest Book Club selection.

http://tinyurl.com/5sgkdu

This market bites. I would do anything to take my computer and my trading stake back to 1995.

ESLR:
Seeing some buying

RE:The twilight of irredeemable debt

There are many more articles from Professor Antal Fekete. He was a professor at Memorial University in St. John's, NL for around 35 years.

Here's the link:
http://www.professorfekete.com/gsul.asp

"I disagree that gold is such a manipulated market. I also think that, in general, we would do well to avoid conspiarcy theories in favor of more obvious and likely notions of causality which would be more likely to be correct."

Hi shark_attack, of course you are entitled to your opinion but watching the gold markets for an extended period of time does reveal highly irregular counterintuitive moves. A good example occurred when Bear Stearns went bust and gold rallied sharply in Asia but then got hammered in NY. Perhaps it was just one of those "profit taking" events on Wall Street again but that would seem unlikely considering the Wall Street credibility hit taken by losing such a prestigous investment bank. GATA has almost irrefutable evidence of central bank gold manipulation so you should check out their website when you have a chance.

I suppose too that we could assume that the FED stopped reporting M3 to save a few thousand does as well. Even better is that we could assume Fort Knox is loaded with physical gold despite not being audited since the Eisenhower era.

Saying gold is not manipulated is like saying the DOW rises randomly at 3:00 pm each day and not because of PPT action. Actually, wasn't the PPT and Working Group considered myths just a few years ago?

"I would do anything to take my computer . . . . . back to 1995."

That was Lotus 1-2-3 and Windows 3.1 wasn't it?

Hang in there shark, it's May.

"April is (was) the cruelest month." -- T.S. Elliot

re gold market manipulation:

start with a fact and build your argument going forward-

1. the majority of wealth is in the possesssion of a small minoirty of people.

2. more wealth generally equals more power and influence. cant argue with that.

3. if a small minority of people posses the majority of power and influence over the vehicles which their wealth is concentrated (stocks, bonds, commodities, realestate, capital ventures)
its natural to assume the system works in their favour, for their money would not principally be there in the first place.

4. i dont believe there is a conspiracy against gold simply becuase its doubled in price over the past few years, therefore these pull backs are part of the normal rhythm of price movements.

if anything there is a conspiracy to make gold go to the moon and kill the USD dollar, for it could not happen without the tacit agreement of enough people with influcence (read: wealth).

the fact that the average joe american still does not invest in gold is proof positive that golds rise has not been on the backs of mass participation or mania. therefore who has on balance enjoyed profits during gold's rise from a few hundred an ounze to $1000?

Well, the thing is we'll never know the answers to some of these things, but given a choice between reasons on the one hand...

1) Fed policy appears to be tightening

2) Gold had a major run and is correcting, the dollar-down cycle may be ending

3) Oil and other commodities such as ag's seem to be deflating

And conspiracy theories on the other

1) Central bankers, in order to avoid the appearance of runaway inflation are selling stores of publicly-owned gold into the market to drive down the price so that their fiat currency retains more credibility

2) (Add your own conspiracy theory here)

I will chose the former and not the latter. Why? Because upon hearing the thundering of hooves, I think horses and not zebras. Could they be zebras? Of course they could. Could I be wrong? Of course I could.

CAF-> craig, i'm selling here into strength at 48.70 (7% gain since monday)...betting i can buy it back...

SLW- back into a 20% allocation at 12.72...

anyone think the market feels like it wants to break out rather than break down?

I for one appreciate the discussion, shark_attack and dr. cosa.

Sound's like shark is an Occam's razor kind of guy.

I always try to ask myself "How many people have to be "on-board" or "in" on the alleged conspiracy to make it work...the more people required to pull it off, the more I discount the possibility of a conspiracy.

anyone 'else'..

For any Elliott Wave enthusiasts out there, one of the top callers is Alf Field and he just issued his latest on gold. Here are a few snippets...

"There is a strong probability that the correction in the gold market from the $1033 peak of 17 March 2008 is complete. This view is based on (i) the fact that the anticipated decline of 16% in this correction has been achieved and (ii) that all the minor waves required to complete the correction are now in place.

If this analysis proves to be correct, then Large Wave III of Major Wave THREE will commence immediately and should be an extremely vigorous upward movement."

We shall see - Fireworks

http://tinyurl.com/3o4539

Cara 100 Update:

Downgrade:

GRMN - to Market Perform @ JMP Securities

Target Price Lowered:

GRMN - $60 to $55 @ Wedbush Morgan
GRMN - $60 to $47 @ Dougherty & Co.
SBUX - $34 to $30 @ McAdams Wright Ragen

Reference past discussions with onlineaces on Jefferson County muni bonds--now comes kickbacks.

On another note, good to see the SEC pursuing; hope to see positive ruling on swaps despite WSJ comment of "broad interpetation" by "some legal experts" in last sentence.

From online WSJ Morning Brief:

"Wall Street Journal: Birmingham, Ala.'s, mayor was sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly accepting more than $156,000 from a friend whose investment-banking firm collected fees on municipal-bond offerings and swap agreements while the mayor oversaw the finances of Jefferson County. The civil suit could establish a precedent for the SEC to bring cases related to swap agreements, a type of derivative not explicitly regulated by the agency. Some legal experts said the SEC is using a broad interpretation of securities fraud to include the swaps, characterizing them as parts of bond offerings that are subject to SEC regulation."

TA on the venture exchange (CDNX) and gold
ratio which is showing signs of reversing its natsy downtrend.

http://jglobal.blogspot.com

i used the RSI-7 but im not sure if a weekly view would be a better use of this indicator for long term charts.

comments as always are welcome.

Elliot wave probably made more sense in an earlier era when trading was longer term. But genuinely I feel that trying to apply Elliot Wave these days is like phrenology or palmistry or something. If you can count the waves and show me what you're talking about, I'll buy you a hot dog. Every once in a blue moon you'll find a 3 or 5 wave pattern that SEEMS Elliot-like, but what does that prove? One out of every 10 hookers has a heart of gold, but the odds are still against.

I don't think it would be appropriate for Bill to show his trading on this Blog, but I will share general information about my trading following the ideas and methodology that this Blog has been wise to share with me over two years of reading the commentary. First, let me state that taking control of your own destiny in these markets has been hard work for me. This has been a school for better understanding the markets and the hurdles an individual investor faces. I am not a day trader. This market has made me a short-term trader with a time horizon of one to twelve months.

So here are the results of my trading the BBC (BernardBillCara) method. I am not a wizard, just a student. Just that I had to do my income tax and I am reviewing my account in 2007.

First, I only trade stocks listed in Canada. I had a total of 12 trades based on the ideas of this Blog:

FO = -5%
HXD = -4%
ECU = -1%

AUR = 12%
KRY = 45% (Yes, I did make some money on this stock. I will return later about my "butting heads")
DML = 28%
ARU = 15%
WGI = 44%
HGU = 10%
SLW = 30%
MSV = 11%
PWT-UN = 8%

For every $100.00 of gains there was a corresponding loss of $5.61. Credit this to cutting losses short with or without stop-losses. Thanks to those who stressed this in the Blog. Also, you know that the theme back in September 2007 was this is a Bear market. It was stressed that one should sell on any rally. And, lastly park your funds in cash. Very simple. You had to decide whether you were 'against' this plan or 'for' the plan.

Any time Bill shows his strategy by example, I cut and paste the example and go over it and over it and over it until I understand. I think I now owe Bill lunch in a big way. And when his book hits the business bookstore on Bay Street, I will gladly buy one in thanks.

I will be back tomorrow or Saturday with a more detailed Year (2007) in review report both positive and negative about this Blog and about what I have learned. May 2008 is the second anniversary of my joining this Blog. Good trading to all. [035]

2nd "anyone think the market feels like it wants to break out rather than break down?"

Yes, feel that way also despite expectation of pullback after yesterday's action. . . GS tell up, oil slipping, Brazil EWZ slightly up despite BIG move yesterday . . but for how long?

CMG:
Continues to go down like a greasy burrito.

http://tinyurl.com/6rz8mv

It continues in fairly oversold territory. In addition, this curent price area (95-100) has twice in the past 12 months been an area of considerable price congestion. See the chart Mar 08 and Aug 07. For those reasons I wouldn't advise joining the trade right now, until some other reason arises.

For example, we seem to be at the $98 support/resistance level. If we move past it with strength, 95 is less powerful support, then it's clear down to 90.

But I really hope/expect the Burrito Believers to make a stand, push it back up and reload the PE. No hurry. This one will be giving it up all the way down to a more reasonable price level. The 80-85 area is the next big target.

There is currently an overhead gap on the dailies at 107-110. Keeep that in mind as a target for any pullback. If it recovers to 110, then as soon as the oscillators show a turn, I'd sell the heck out of the 115 calls.

If YUM trades in the 30 something x earnings, and they have far more powerful brands and an international growth story, no way is a one-brand burrito store worth 45x. Luckily there are plenty of CMG fan-boys who think otherwise. We'll take more of their money soon enough.

Selling those pricey calls at technical levels on strength has been, is and will be, money. Just have patience for the next setup.

shark - how do you know it's one out of ten...

Gulf States May End Dollar Pegs, Kuwait Minister Says

http://tinyurl.com/554k77

Wouldn't this adversely effect the US Ecomony sending the market downwards?

HI everyone

So I am ready to jump in and join you now. I spent some time watching and learning from everyone here, in order to figure out how to safely position retirement funds.
In that time I have grown to respect everyone here and Bill.

I have spent the last month setting up basic trading accounts and just reading what everyone here has been teaching to ready myself for following the flow.

In many ways as a Taoist this is a good exercise in relaxing into a practice. Not letting attachments or ego lead to delusions and misjudgments. I view money in all forms as "Currency" in other words something that must flow in order to have its power in terms of its nature

We are living in time of change, and in change I see something important to share here. That day trading is a practice in the art of possibility, or potential. It's a very Taoist way to move in life.

I hope to contribute as I can. I look forward to learning. Thanks for being so very open in this practice.

Casey

re: elliott wave

using elliott wave to actually trade is a disaster. good luck with that.

Sold May 90 calls @ 2.25 on half of V position.

V continues parabolic move, RSIs in the 90's, nosebleed.

seamus- i think it would take 13000+ for cash to jump in from the sidelines...an opportunity to sell into that kind of strength would be my expectation..

Monster rally in the $ today. If it keeps strengthening the next round of earnings reports will not be good as those currency conversion gains will disappear and the true lack of sales gains will be obvious.

I heard interesting analysis the other day that the next round of $ weakness will be against asian currencies, and this will provide the impetus for higher gold prices.

MSFT:
http://tinyurl.com/55apap

There is a great example of a well-formed upward trendline from March to May. I don't have the pay Stockcharts account that lets me annotate the charts. But it's so easy even a caveman can see the upper and lower channel trend lines (ex the spike to 32)

We have currently pulled back exactly to that rising trend line. That's a great entry point. We are also on or just sagging below the 50 day. That's a concern from a long point of view.

Note also the width of the Bolinger bands. That vol is rare in MSFT and should be sold. The 28 puts still look fat. The 27s for those with a less risky outlook. Keep in mind that it looks like we are at a technical decision point. It could break either way, but I give the edge to the upside. Even on a downward break, your 27 puts give you a cost basis with a 26 handle. Not a thing in the world wrong with that.

I hope any pros will feel free to tell me where I've overlooked something.

2nd yes, agree. . . that's why I sold short term calls on half the position . . . will take @92.25 to call my shares and I'd be more than willing to let them go at that price . . . DIA would probably be over 13K then . . on the other hand if there's a pullback, I pocket the option money.

Leveraged Gold ETF’s: The End of Gold Stocks
http://tinyurl.com/44g84c
Any opinion?

The indexes may be green but FSLR is getting crushed today - one day after it gapped up on earnings it is now penetrating support in the mid-260s - definetly some panic going on.

I'm riding this short down from a 290 basis, covered half around 268 and letting the rest ride down. Will look at reloading more short on rallies.

PS..also props to Korvus' RSI page (and Bill's RSI method) which confirmed the sell on FSLR at $286 a few days back - that gave me confidence not to panic when they gapped the stock up yesterday.....I will be clicking a few extra google ads for you tonight Korvus!

To Casey Kochmer re trading accts. Speaking from my own experience. Depending on the amount of money the acct is funded at; 25K vs 15K effects how the acct is allowed to trade. I don't consider myself a day trader but due to my own time constraints, my trading activity is compressed into 2 weekdays. As a result my online trading acct is now frozen out of making new trades. I can sell existing just not initiate new positions. Not happy with this if the TOG is heading my way. I am still selling on small rallies...just more slowly as I cannot reinvest those funds at this time. Am taking steps to liquidate other investments to reinvest the trading acct but that process takes longer.
Just a word to the wise.
peace from north puget sound
Gray

BillySundance

nice trade . . solar stocks related to price of oil; if oil comes down, the high flying solar atocks will get crushed IMO. Missed it this morning as I was preoccupied with other positions.

typo--solar "stocks"

Should clarify: if oil comes way down, solar stocks will get crushed.

FSLR:
Not a surprise.

268 is a strong support level. If you take out that, woo-hoo, see you at the 50 day. That will be about 245 and also a strong support level.

Editor's Note: John Olagues is the owner and principal consultant for Truth IN Options and a recognized authority on listed and employee stock options. After graduating from Tulane University in 1974 John applied his B.A. in mathematics and his competitive spirit to the real world of stock options. In 1976, John became a member of the Pacific Stock Exchange in San Francisco trading and managing options positions in scores of different stocks. John with a partner created Options Research, the first service to provide theoretical options values to market-makers and to the general public. In 1980, he became a member of the CBOE, where he personally traded more options in more diverse situations than any other trader.

In this article John makes the case that the Bear Stearns collapse was artificially created so that insiders could take large short positions in Bear Stearns stock prior and so that J.P. Morgan would in effect be paid $55 Billion of US tax payer money to shore up themselves and to buy Bear Stearns.

http://tinyurl.com/3pfaud

Thanks Gray

I used to live in Oly from your neck of the woods. Too much rain so now I wander in the southwest.

I opened up two 10K accounts initially. Not much but its a start. I started off with MRK at 37.17 and have half in cash as I wait. Right now I am just exploring the various stocks and learning how to use the tools so when it really all begins I know and am familiar with it all.

I have been watching for 30 years but never considered myself emotionally detached enough to truly work in this. I now feel ready to extend my practice :)

Thanks

ALOHA !!

shark ... Your views on gold represents about 99% of the American public and probably about 95% of the Canadian and European public but about only 5% of the Asia, South America, Africa, Russia and all of the OPEC public!

That is to say you place value on a US Peso and why not because that is all any of us Americans have known all our life, right? It's easy to cling to a belief you've had your entire life. A US Dollar is good and debt is good! It's much more difficult to go against the prevailing trend that gold is just for rings and teeth and has no value since it does not pay interest. Its very difficult to change, whether its buying gold for the first time or going to your first AA meeting and admitting you're an alcoholic! Why do I use the AA metaphor? Because owning and clinging to a US Peso or a Euro is similar in terms of addiction. We and many in the World are addicted to US Pesos simply becasue prices are set using the US Peso! The US Peso is the World Reserve Currency! This is the first time in all of human history that a "fiat monetary system" has been a "Reserve Currency"! Prior to this modern era going back to Roman times all currency was expressed in terms of gold because gold was money.

In terms of gold manipulation none other than Alan Greenspan himself has admitted it is a manipulated market! Just as I wrote an article that sites FOMC meeting minutes going back to 1978 showing that the US Dollar was being manipulated by then Fed Chief Burns and his protege Paul Volcker. There is manipulation of every market even computer chip prices are rigged.

You keep holding your paper IOUs known as a US Dollar and I'll keep buying gold and silver as a hedge against devaluing global "debt" known to some as "fiat money" ... There is no future in "debt" and there is none in global fiat because "fiat is debt".

So many here believe that when the US FED stops cutting rates and actually starts raising rates that gold is dead. That will be a knee jerk response by Wall Street and the FED and I believe they will capitalize on such an announcement to take down gold, but in actuality what are they saying? What the FED is actually signaling behind the rhetoric and spin is that "inflation" exists, in other words we cannot sell our "debt" at these low rates of return because too many FRN exist! It's all about "risk". The way "risk" is expressed in "fiat" is by "monetary inflation". The more a currency inflates the more risk is assumed through debt. That's a simple principle that has been totally lost to the masses. One would think that there is "no risk" to hold one's own currency. After all if you put your money in the bank it is safe right? In fact if you keep your money in the bank long enough you will make money on your deposit. That's the illusion. The real question is what can you buy with those funds after years and decades of saving them? Ask any retiree living off their savings and Social Security. Foreign central banks are finding out the answer to that question the hard way! What is a US Peso worth compared to a Euro? Just hop on a jet and fly to Paris or London on a vacation and see how far your US Peso gets you. The less "risk" a fiat currency has the more it can buy, in terms of goods and service priced in a Fiat World. Perhaps there should be a new twelve step group called "FA" Fiat Anonymous!

The US government and the US Banks will collapse the US Peso ... These are the same entities that we have trusted for the past 95 years to ensure our currency remains strong. I ask you have they earned your trust? If you own no gold then in essence your answer is YES! If so, then I suggest you send Greenspan and Bernanke a "Thank You" letter for a job well done ...

not sure if anyone follows Tim Ord,
some interesting charts for gold sentiment:

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

ALOHA !!

This just in from Jim Sinclair ...

READ ON:
Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

I received a very important call from a steel worker who just received a DEFICIENCY NOTICE from his pension plan. I understand that the Teamsters Union has sent out the same notice to its members.

I would like to add another item that needs to be attended to. Those of you that have the ability to withdraw from your pension plans do so immediately, hopefully at the last stated value as many of these entities are up to their nose in SIVs and multiple other forms of derivatives.

What a mess. Nothing has changed.

This type of a situation will help to increase the Federal Budget Deficit, putting more weight on the US dollar. What happens to the US dollar happens to gold inversely.END

I do not have any such accounts and I do not contribute to a SEP-IRA or any IRA ...

Seamus - I do see the very tight correlation with solar and oil - but I wish I understood the reasoning better - it would seem the tighter correlation should be with natgas&coal (maybe it is I have not done the analysis.

While heating oil is used to generate electricity in some places the realtionship doesn't seem proper. You can't power your car on solar, nor can you power industrial steel manufacturing, or run railroads on solar power - I just think the strength of the correlation could be very misguided in the long run.

2nd

Dow is up5% in April
Dow usually does not go up 10% in second quarter
So, It may hit 13000, but at end of June it will be lower or same

This morning Boston Globe says growth in Ma was 3.2 while nation grew 0.6
There is job here for those who want to work
And still foreclosure is in top 10 of the nation

BillySundance

point well taken although I remember reading somewhere a report on some H.S. science project winner who built a solar vehicle. . . LOL. . no way for production and use by the masses (yet)!

Haven't done any analysis either with nat gas/coal.

Hitting the road momentarily, will be gone for the day, have a good one!

Two new ETFs offering 2x inverse on US bonds:

UltraShort Lehman Brothers 7-10 Year Treasury (PST)

http://www.proshares.com/funds/pst.html

UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT)

http://www.proshares.com/funds/tbt.html

vinod- blast off! taking CALM off @ 30.70 for now...;)

RE: Gulf States May End Dollar Pegs, Kuwait Minister Says

->There has been a lot of talk of that lately. Most of the articles I read were moving towards a peg with a basket of currencies, similar to Singapore.

seamus/vinod-> it may time to take profits and turn the trade(s) around...looking for entries into QID, SKF, FXP...

DJ-30 approaching sma200 AS PREDICTED this weekend, and look at SP-500, struggling with ema200, sma500, also AS PREDICTED this previous weekend, nice...

Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

out MRK/CALM/DUG/SMN
In QID

Re: B.C. uranium moratorium

Here's a comment from Santoy minerals:

Santoy comments on B.C. uranium mining ban

2008-04-29 13:35 ET - News Release

Mr. R. K. Netolitzky reports

SANTOY RESPONDS TO BC GOVERNMENT HALT ON URANIUM EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Santoy Resources Ltd. has informed its shareholders that the news release by British Columbia Minister of State for Mining, Kevin Krueger, dated April 24, 2008, has negatively affected the value of Santoy's equity investment in Boss Power Corp., also a TSX Venture Exchange-listed company. Boss Power was in the process of developing the Blizzard uranium deposit in the Greenwood mining division of south-central B.C. Santoy is investigating its options with regard to its investment in Boss Power to ensure that it protects the rights of the company's shareholders. Santoy remains well financed and will continue to actively explore projects in other jurisdictions in Canada that remain open for business.

The B.C. government news release confirms that the Boss Power claims included the rights to uranium, but more importantly the release does not address the expropriation procedure the government intends to use, nor any discussion regarding compensation for damage caused. The effect of the B.C. government's moratorium on uranium exploration and development is an expropriation of the Blizzard deposit. The actions of the B.C. government were completed without due process or any consultation. Santoy remains committed to the exploration for uranium as a necessary activity to promote the reduction of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, it remains confident that such exploration and development can be managed in a safe and prudent manner, as has clearly been demonstrated elsewhere in Canada over the past 50 years.

We seek Safe Harbor.

Kaimu,

You wrote "So many here believe that when the US FED stops cutting rates and actually starts raising rates that gold is dead. That will be a knee jerk response by Wall Street and the FED and I believe they will capitalize on such an announcement to take down gold"

We really agree on quite a bit. Here's one point where you and I agree completely. I think that when the fed stops lowering rates they will be surprised to find rampant inflation continuing. I think the inflation genie's definitely out of the bottle, and I think we also agree that when the truly dumb money piles out of gold it will be a huge, historic buying oppty. I look for that this year. And as always, I appreciate your unique and skeptical perspective.

vinod! rockin' and rollin' today, man...scaling into QID at 40.08...

In fact, so many of the "under 10" miners have corrected so goshdarn far it cant be long 'till they are buys.

Re: Junior Space

A junior precious metals explorer held some coal concessions and struck a coal shelf while drilling. This has to be the extreme expression of how the commodity space has taken a front seat to gold investments.

Goldsource Mines Inc (GXS.V)

Long Term Chart Yahoo.com

http://tinyurl.com/5rpz32

2nd
out DAL/NWA/UAUA

Right behind you 2nd. QID@ 40.06, SKF at 94 (a little late).

vinod- this is why i love counter-trend/sentiment trading-> they can't wait to sell it to you when it's dropping, then they can't wait to buy it back from you when it's taking off...

no competition whatsoever ;)

craig- did you get back into SBUX this morning?

No, I was greedy and missed my entry. Now I wait.....

I did sell the CNSL I bought at 13.88, and I wait again....:>) When we do find the bottom this one will be a LT hold/div payer. 1.54 for a 14.00 phone co. Disclosure: No position now...LOL!

Does anyone follow MU or have an opinion on this one? I see a double bottom with a possible breakout - currently being met with resistance at $8. I'm just trying to learn or gather more information from someone with more TA skills than I have.

Disclosure - Long MU

TIA

anyone considering COW? farmers can't afford to feed their livestock and it is going to the slaughter house, won't this lead to much higher meat prices? meat it still cheap here in Iowa

Interesting to see the miners all way down, but NOT.V is up 6%. What's driving NOT.V?

XAU- intraday low is 162.88...that's damned close to bill's first target of 158...

GDX in the batter's box waiting for the pitch...

GDX- if i'd been watching when it hit 41.61, i would have taken it...

vinod- speaking of baseball, i see you came out of the DUGout and hit that one out of the park...nice intraday timing on top of your original buy point...;)

AMAT- taking that one off the table today also...

oh oh - more like the Fed?!!?!

BOC Governor wants more power to take on bad debts like the Fed.

http://tinyurl.com/6a8987

Did anyone else receive shares from the Nortel class action lawsuit today? Question: did you receive a cash settlement too, if so, how does it compare $ wise with the value of the shares? Thx.

Gimbal Lock- thank you for your (1242p) links to PST/TBT...

g52- so you now have the option of increasing your leverage from 1.25x to 2x...

this market does not want to go down...

vinod- QID and SKF look like reasonable bets...the other one, i don't know-> manipulation by beijing is the wild card, so staying away...going long CAF is the safer play there...

should say, going long *on pullbacks* is the safer play...

2nd - sir, time-frame on QID? day-trade? opinion re jun/july calls @40...???

It seems quite normal to see both GM and FORD up strongly today despite double digit vehicle sales declines for the month of April. Too bad they did lose more market share as their share prices would be up even more. Can one imagine how well their shares would do if they actually increased market share? But then again, if they have historically lost money making vehicles then perhaps selling fewer vehicles would be good for the bottom line.

Disneyland trading - Fireworks

RE: UXG. Below is the response I got from US Gold regarding their future strategy. It's a pity Rob did not respond personally, as he did to my previous e-mail in November, but here it is:

****
Hi David,

What we are currently working on is resource estimates for some of our projects that should be ready in the second quarter (in the coming
weeks). The resource estimates will be done for a couple of projects in Nevada as well as Mexico. Essentially, this will tell us 1. How much gold we have 2. How much of it is mineable 3. At what cost.

Once we have these results we will be able to start looking at the other questions you raise.

Regards,

Ana E. Aguirre | Manager, Investor Relations |
US Gold Corporation |99 George St. | 3rd Flr. | Toronto, ON | M5A 2N4 |
Tel: 647-258-0395, x.170 | Toll Free: 866-441-0690 | Fax: 647-258-0408
|

-----Original Message-----
Dear Mr. McEwen,

I am a shareholder of US Gold and I have contacted you previously regarding your insights about the decline in UXG price. You wrote on January 20: "Some time later this year the juniors will begin to perform well, assuming the gold price holds up which I believe it will." Right now the gold price is where it was on
January 20 and UXG is down significantly. Why do you think UXG fell so much since then? Is it because the chances of US Gold going to production have decreased because of increasing production costs?

I think I read somewhere that US Gold has money to keep exploring until the end of 2008 - is it correct? If you don't find any new gold deposits when you run out of exploration funds, are you going to start extracting the gold you have already found? Or did you find too little gold so far to justify going into production? If you do go into production, what do you think your production costs are going to be per ounce
of gold?

I would also greatly appreciate if you could give me an updated view of the prospects of the junior mining sector.

Thank you,

David

NOT: from 3.70 to 5.20 in 4 days. Thank you Bill.

Whoa, NOT.V up 15.5%. I feel better about FXP losses today.....

gb48- re QID...can't say what the time frame is right now...all i know is we're buying on weakness, and it's a killer entry point...(you can stop calling me sir, my friend...makes me feel even older than i am ;)

David

Good letter to McEwen.

..jun/jul 40 calls-> premiums look reasonable...(btw, i agree that options limits your amount at risk, but in general, my bias with options is to sell them, not buy them-> why not buy QID and sell puts against them instead?)...

2nd - looked tempting enough so I went in with something small, took 10 QID may 40 calls, my guess goes along with your position - market will bounce lower short-term after today's uptick; hope we're right...
--gb58

Anyone follow this stock?

ICF International (NASDAQ: ICFI) - partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, climate change, environment, transportation, social programs, health, defense, and emergency management markets.

52-Week High $34.36
52-Week Low $16.72
Current Price $18.28
Change (%) 0.44 (2.47%)

SKF got pounded today... XLF was a rocket this morning well before the rest of the market launched @ lunchtime, though. Still holding up well this past hour, too.

Nasty employment #s tomorrow would set up a nice counter to today's rally... am curious to see if we get juiced over 13,000. I was expecting it earlier but now... we'll see. Would it be a bad sign if after a big up day like that we can't step over the big 13K?

ah nevermind, here it comes.

that's right...payrolls friday

Re: Junior space

Today, I was watching Wescan Goldfields. I have some interest in this company, especially as it neighbours on my gold exploration play.

In the last two days, it has risen on what I believe is a classic collapse of a naked short. Rumours have it that they have coal properties. (nothing about that on the website.)

Why I should say this, is that on no news whatsoever, an anonymous buyer kept buying and trading all day, contributing greatly to the volume traded. At one point they were relentless sellers, but when the price appreciated, they were very irrational buyers.

Up 22.5¢ on 4.8m shares volume, closing very near the high for the day, so I expect a little more of the same tomorrow.

Wescan Goldfields Inc (WGF.V)

F6

Not only did Dow close above 13K, S&P 500 close above 1400 and above last November minimum (1406), Nasdaq 100 close above 200-day MA. Cool!

Tomorrow almost for sure things will not be so pretty as I'm not expecting we pass these resistances at the first time.

Thanks,

Greetings,

Thanks to Bill and everyone else for making this my favorite site within just a couple of months of finding it.

After losing 15% on SKF the first time by buying on a breakout (buying high and looking to sell higher), I'm trying the countertrend approach of buying low and selling higher. Thanks to 2nd and Vinod, I followed you guys in with SKF at 93.33 and QID at 39.69 right before the close. The herd of bulls ran to the edge of the precipice today. They will have to run back the other way to avoid collaspe under their own weight.

Disclosure: I'm net long, but consider SKF and QID to be good short term trading hedges against my longs.

Best of luck to you all.

"Nasty employment #s tomorrow would set up a nice counter to today's rally"

Gosh, haven't we already seen so many nasty news items doing nothing but fueling further upward movement, who is to say this one is going to be any different :)

On serious note... news by itself is not really telling, reaction on it is - and the best trading opportunity comes when reaction is opposite to what news itself means. Call it manipulation if you want... but when did markets move in strict accordance with common sense? I mean... What century did tulip mania take place in?? :) Not much common sense to that, was it? And, did anything really change since then as far as market participants is concerned? Hundreds years later we still go from bubble to bubble. Internet tulips, housing tulips, commidity tulips... adjectives change, tulips remain.

Point is... read mass behavior as chart reflects it, and view divergence between common sense and price action as your clearest trading opportunity

On Brazilian stocks (ADRs), my favorite is SDA, which is not in the CARA100, but actually a bigger company than PDA and in the same space. SDA had a split not long ago. No. 1 company in this space.

Big spikes today on the McFauld plays (BMK +30%, NOT +15%, FNC +9%), as well as big 25% spike on GRZ near the end of the day. Something may be up there.

BMK (the one McEwen invested in) acquired more land near NOT's finds.

Vadym, 2nd, and others: What do you think about IYR? Do you think it will break out of the ~$71.40 level?

I prefer to short IYR over buying SRS, although the only way I could short it at my broker was to let my written IYR calls get assigned.

..."as far as market participants is concerned"

should read as "as far as market participants' behavior is concerned".

I need to learn how to use preview button... or how to speak English

Vadym,

"news by itself is not really telling, reaction on it is - and the best trading opportunity comes when reaction is opposite to what news itself means"

Can you give an example of how to put this into practice?

Maybe this one. Fed cuts yesterday 1/4 point. Should be gold positive, inflationary and weaken the dollar. Initial market reaction was gold rally and dollar fall (maybe a headfake). Then today, dollar rally's and gold falls.

How does a trader capitalize on this opportunity? How do you know when to enter the trade if there is a headfake first? Thanks.

2nd
I could not logon untill now
but my skf did not got filed . I put in too low price
yesterday my oex put and call did good. and today
june 640put got filled at 12.20 and I have 10 contract
just for your information. i know you do not do this kind of trade.

Vad,
That's what FSLR was telling me yesterday - failure to react to great news.

I posted the day before a bunch of chart indicators that were showing me a bearish divergence and weakness. Then the earnings numbers showed something like a big jump in revenues and a positive guidance - and the stock hopped up just a percent or two and then came right back down. That told me that even on great news this thing is not ready to move higher just yet.

That failure to sustain a move on stellar news had me looking for exactly what happened today - collapse of the share price, on a big market up day, right back down to the 265 area.

Jesse,

Let me cite several before going over your particular example.

One such opportunity came at 03/24 when market confirmed double bottom by breaking the top between two bottoms - and it happened when there was nothing but the darkest news all around. Now, let's suppose for some reason you skipped or missed that one - look at 03/28 - 03/31 when market retested that resistance and confirmed that it became a support now. Next one came when NQ broke 1900. And again, one headline after another is nothing but doom and gloom (absolutely true btw, thing ARE bleak). Let me also point out that it's not a postfactum analysis (hindsight is always 20/20, isn't it, and not really worth much) - I posted right here at the time that if NQ is holding double bottom pattern and breaks 1900, we have nothing to keep it from 2000. Today we were what, 20 points from 2000.

About yesterday/today... see, reaction on FOMC announcement is always violent and market is too volatile to form reliable patterns. My personal approach in such cases is to sit it out and see what transpires next. I did just that during yesterday's selloff, doing just small quick scalps on RIMM/AAPL bounces. Today, however, was very different story. Market nevere jeopardized yesteday's low went up slowly and confidently and broke yesterday's high... THAT was quite telling and gave enough opportunities.

I am not trying to say there is a sure-fire way to tell a headfake from a valid move - trading gods know I have my fair share of being shaken out. SYMC long this morning is the freshest one, darn thing stopped me out, then proceeded much higher. AMKR on another hand was the nicest thing imaginable, have a look at both intraday charts to see what I mean. So what... stop is stop, take it, forget it, move on, next bus is right around the corner. Never let shakeout lull you into false feeling of sewcurity so you blow next stop thinking that it's going to make you whole, just like previous one did. 4 of them will do, then one will never come back and that one is going to destroy you. Stay in the game by controlling you risk. Avoid situations where risk is bigger thhan you can afford (and immediate reaction on FOMC rate decision is one of those)

"Vad,
That's what FSLR was telling me yesterday - failure to react to great news."

Jesse... there you go, another great example, and very fresh! Thank you Mike

"Vadym, 2nd, and others: What do you think about IYR? Do you think it will break out of the ~$71.40 level?"

Teich... I don't know what to say because I don't think in this terms. Trading to me does not translate in "will or will not". Trading for me is IF-THEN, where IF is markets action, THEN is my reaction. To put it in context of your ETF: IF IYR is hoding above 70 and breaks 71.25, THEN I go long. IF IVR fails to break 70.70 and loses 68.70, THEN I go short. Stop is placed at the level that indicates that the reason for entry is no longer valid, and from this point on it's up to market to tewll me which it is - loss or profit; I'll take any with no second thought.

Those are examples to demonstrate the principle of approaach, please do NOT use those levels as guidance. I had just a brief glance at the chart; also, there are additional criteria to be met for entry, like volume configuration, the way stock comes to support/resistance (in a sharp parabolic movement or by slow gradual climb or slide, what general market is doing etc.

Thanks Vadym, alot of good advice in your post. Also, thanks to Mike, that is a good example.
I wasn't involved in any trades around the FOMC meeting, I am just trying to learn by observing how the market works and what type of trades to enter. Reading your blog has really brought to my attention the importance of the market reaction to news more than the news itself. Not understanding that has cost me in the past (i.e. Bear Stearns and the collapse of gold)and I am trying to avoid repeating those mistakes. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and insights.

Teich- re IYR/SRS: thanks for asking, but i will defer to Vad for an answer to your question, and I think he answered well...

fwiw, Vad's a professional, I'm not (in fact, I basically trade [probably like vinod] during breaks/lulls at work)...I don't use TA- pretty much trade on my judgment of prevailing sentiment, so in general will never have specific targets in mind-> usually think in terms of buying on weakness or when no one else seems interested (think China/airlines/technology/home finance 2-3 weeks ago), then selling into strength...which is not to say i don't 'believe in' TA-> better answer would be i just don't have the time (family, work, other interests) to learn much about it right now...just trying to have a little fun and not taking the trading too seriously...there's much more to life, right? as todd harrison might say-> it's not the destination, it's the journey...

vinod-> i know you had a great day...;)

ALOHA !!

This defines the problem with Wall Street and the USA!

READ ON:
Drake to Shut Its Largest Hedge Fund, Plans New Fund This Year

May 1 (Bloomberg) -- Drake Management LLC, the New York-based firm started by former BlackRock Inc. money managers, is shutting its largest hedge fund, according to a letter to investors. It plans to start a new fund later this year.

The firm said it's winding down the $2.5 billion Global Opportunities Fund after it lost 25 percent last year and investors asked to pull money. The firm's managers, Anthony Faillace and Steve Luttrell, will decide on the fate of its two other hedge funds by the end of the May. They will continue to manage $8 billion in traditional fixed-income accounts.

``We are committed to launching successor vehicles for the funds later this year,' yesterday's unsigned letter said, referring to the onshore and offshore versions of the Global Opportunities fund. Current clients who want to invest in the new fund won't pay performance fees until their losses are recouped…END

To me this is the Wall Street equivalent of GM and FORD offering "incentives" to keep you buying their tired old gas guzzling financial coffins!

Nobody cares about "risk" any more! If you own a US Peso you own 100% RISK!

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

ALOHA !!

Today I bought Swiss Francs and Geologix ...

I got a real haircut today (mostly from a very bad entry on SKF and irrational market sentiment). You guys are right, that's strictly a short term trading vehicle.

This market has become too difficult to play with my intermediate to long term strategy. Or at least those double short ETFs anyway.

I have kept most of my cash on the sidelines based on Bill's GG report (Thank you Bill.) because I would have probably been a lot more heavily invested in PM miners at this point. A couple of my juniors are going underwater on me now and I thought I got a steal on them in August when gold was almost 200 below here and they were being dumped hard. It's almost like nothing has happened for them since then.

I can't imagine what the people that bought gold at 1030 must feel like these days. It's one wild bull ride.

I'll really be ready when the time comes for the ToG, but days like this are tough when you can't watch every tick.

Congrats to you though Vinod for having a great day! When one of you guys gets it right, that at least puts a smile on my face :)

Vadym,

"...who is to say this one is going to be any different :)"

certainly not me, i'm underwater! :-) mine is the *last* opinion anybody should trust.

seriously, though: could my answer be probability?

yesterday was a terrible day technically, (large up tail to new highs on the candlestick on big volume) today was a good day that blew it away, as you said: steady to new highs. however, the volume was not as good... and one measure of market bullishness is currently @ october levels: http://tinyurl.com/57hdlh (however this is not backed up by CBOE Put/Call ratio, which IMO is bullish but not excessively so)

as for the last unemployment report, can't get much information out of it: it came out on april 4th, was higher than expected, (barely) the market sold off for the day but came back to close only slightly negative.

IMO, we are on the obvious upswing of unemployment: http://tinyurl.com/56ljwt so values that come in above expectations are more probable.

i think employment health has been one of the key aspects of a bullish argument over the last couple weeks. so *perhaps* the market will be more sensitive to tomorrow's number.

since market reaction to negative news has been positive for a long time... if the coin keeps turning heads, eventually it must turn tails. reality sets in at some point. of course markets remain erratic longer than we can stay solvent... and at some point we must cut your losses & move on. obviously my earlier statement, and this one, both only serve to assuage my mind while in a losing position.

i see the value in reacting *to* market movements, as you summarize with your IF/THEN example. it seems that is the proper way to trade. i am currently undercapitalized, so i seek refuge in fundamentals & longer timeframes... at this stage of the game for me, a focus on capital concentration is required, not risk minimization.

Posted by: 2nd_ave at May 1, 2008 6:46 PM [link]
I can describe my trading activity just and time available like your
And my post is weaker because of my poor English

and I am learning from you all

Thnks to all for their good posting

The Rotation to tech, retail, financial, swiftly and without mercy
2nd you was correct in morning with your observation that market wants to hit 1300
I missed to use your hunch for profit

ALOHA !!

shark ... We'll have to agree to disagree on all the rest of World monetary history and Economics 101! Owning irredeemable debt is desirable ...

ONE QUESTION
"Who is buying?" The GLD ETF alone sold some 50 tons this past week. Do you agree that there has to be a buyer if there is a seller?

I can compile a huge list of news releases about all kinds of GOLD SELLERS from the IMF to the ECB to JP MORGAN(GLD)! Why is it I never see any news releases about who is BUYING? GLD sells 20 tons today ... hummm ... well where is the info on the BUYER?

When it comes to the DOW you get "BUY STUFF" all day long like Kirk Kerkorian bought 19mil shares of GM! Or Warren Buffet buys Wrigley! You never get to know who bought gold ... Gold is all about the "SELL STUFF"! It must be all the "dumb money" that will be pouring out of gold soon that is buying now!

Who is buying?

IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ...

Vadym & 2nd:

I appreciate very much your comments.

I understand that fundamentals don't matter much in the short term, as the market is a voting machine in that time frame. If IYR takes off, I am prepared to write puts against my shorted IYR shares in order to try to minimize my pain.

I cannot see commercial real estate (CRE) taking off, as retailers are closing existing stores and canceling their new-store openings. In addition, capital has become more expensive (e.g., Citigroup is raising new capital at >9 %).

"non-farm payrolls could have even dropped by 100k last month"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/75179-will-non-farm-payrolls-recover?source=headline1

Of course, even if it is true, most of the drop has probably been "priced" in.

Nikkei vaults 250+ points to open above 14000...

auhead- congrats...EOD is almost always a nice entry point, when emotions are running high and traders run out of time/have no time for decision-making-> you are almost assured of a gain at some point...better yet is when prices close at the low (or high) of the day-> nice set-ups for reversal when the inevitable remorse of sellers/buyers sets in...in any case, reaction to payrolls should provide enough volatility for decent exits if that turns out to be what you decide...

opening gap in N225 is actually a nice set-up for a sell-off by close (why would smart traders not be selling into resistance)-> which then helps to set a negative tone as trading sweeps across time zones toward the US...my guess would be a negative pre-market tomorrow, later augmented by a negative jobs report or (less likely) trumped by a positive report...all of this is conjecture, of course, and i have no bets riding on any of this playing out (other than the fact i'm holding QID), but hey-> the coffee will taste better if i'm right ;)

2nd

Hope you're right again. I would love to see some bearish movement in this market.

UXG holders

This is one UGLY chart!

http://tinyurl.com/5xwkmy

I seriously doubt we disagree about economics 101, and if so, it's because you either didn't take it or tried to teach the course yourself.

"Allen has balls of steel

Posted by: shark_attack at April 29, 2008 4:47 PM"

Sharkie, I think based on your last post, yours are titanium!

Very few are more familiar with the central bank gold suppression scheme than former banker James Turk. Here is an excerpt from his latest article...

"There is today "joint intervention" by central banks to interfere with the normal supply/demand activity in the gold market. These efforts are aimed at preventing gold from doing what it has always done throughout history. Gold is a monetary barometer because its rising price signals the mismanagement of a national currency.

So rather than take those steps needed to actually implement a strong dollar policy and thereby fight inflation, the government-directed gold cartel instead intervenes in the gold market "to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold", which was Volcker's lament. Central bank intervention in the gold market – which to me has been particularly obvious in recent weeks – is a bald attempt to make us believe that the dollar is worthy of being the world's reserve currency when in fact it is not."

http://tinyurl.com/u29c

QT- re UXG/KRY..don't know if you were around in 2006, when one poster staked his entire portfolio on KRY...bill promptly stomped on that move (rightfully so) to little effect...have you noticed that almost every time someone proclaims (outsized) confidence in a position it's a contrarian indicator? i was scanning realmoney last night, and noticed doug kass flashing his "All-in Short" headline...now, i have a lot of respect for kass' timing, but as soon as i saw that headline i immediately had one more reason to look for a rally today...i think we may have enough cash off the sidelines now to see some pain inflicted on longs for a change...

2nd

Tomorrow if serious pain is inflicted, I'll buy you a bottle of that wine you were drinking the other night!

Wonder if the KRY investor from 2006 is still around?

2nd:

Good luck on QID tomorrow. The trade should work well, since I noticed that even dogs like AMD went up 4.4%.

ALOHA !!

shark ... Okay, okay ... Economics 101 aside ... I am sure you took the class and I am sure I did not teach it! You're a smart guy!

Still ... WHO IS BUYING? Don't you find it odd that we are never informed who is buying?

Arbuckle,

2 things I'd like to comment on.

"eventually it must turn tails. reality sets in at some point"

Oh, of course. BUT (you knew there was but coming, didn't you :) the real question is, what tools do you possess to time this turn? Because fundamentals is not a ttiming tool, you may very well be right on economy and numbers and company statements but wrognly timed entry will lose you money nonetheless.

"i see the value in reacting *to* market movements, as you summarize with your IF/THEN example".

I don't want to create an impression that I do not have any mental scenario for the development I exxpect. The critical distinction though is, any such scenario is an initial assumption, kind of a framework for me, yardstick against which I measure the action. As price movement develops, I observe the collision between my scenario and reality (map and territory), and my course of action becomes clear. The advantage of such approach is, I am not married to my opinion. Nothing is invested emotionaally, my ego is not being hurt is what happens doesn't match my scenario - after all, it was created as a yardstick, not as a prediction.

There... 7 miles walk around the lake clears head enough to produce new batch of mistypes

QT
you have said "I would love to see some bearish movement in this market"

When you get feeling that market is not going to go down and I must joined the up crowd, and you become bullish
That the time market will be headed down and down to previous low

ALOHA !!

This says it all ... Direct from one of the Wall Street "players"! Why does the FED exist? I forgot?

READ ON:
Thursday, May 01, 2008

Your Lying Wallet

From the Federal Reserve's statement on Wednesday, when it cut interest rates yet again:

Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization.

Keeping in mind that individuals and businesses use these forecasts for planning purposes, let's revisit the Fed's previous predictions about inflation:

March 18, 2008: "The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization."

January 30, 2008: "The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters"...

January 22, 2008: "The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters"...

December 11, 2007: "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year"...

October 31, 2007: "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year"...

September 18, 2007: "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year"...

August 7, 2007: "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months."

June 28, 2007: "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months."

May 9, 2007: "Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time"...

March 21, 2007: "Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time"...

January 31, 2007: "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time."

December 12, 2006: "Inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand."
And excerpts from some of Bernanke's past speeches and testimony:

7/19/06: "FOMC participants project that the growth in economic activity should moderate to a pace close to that of the growth of potential both this year and next. Should that moderation occur as anticipated, it should help to limit inflation pressures over time...the economy should continue to expand at a solid and sustainable pace and core inflation should decline from its recent level over the medium term...our baseline forecast is for moderating inflation."

11/28/06: "Core inflation is expected to slow gradually from its recent level"...

3/28/07: "Core inflation, which is a better measure of the underlying inflation trend than overall inflation, seems likely to moderate gradually over time."

7/18/07: "With long-term inflation expectations contained, futures prices suggesting that investors expect energy and other commodity prices to flatten out, and pressures in both labor and product markets likely to ease modestly, core inflation should edge a bit lower, on net, over the remainder of this year and next year."

Polls show that inflation worries Americans more than jobs, the stock market, or declining house prices. This Fed has proven itself either willfully deceptive about inflation, or incapable of forecasting it. And some want to give even more authority to this bunch? The only thing the Fed needs more of is congressional oversight.END

posted by The Cunning Realist

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Argentine bonds show growing speculation that the country will default for the second time this decade as inflation and anti-government protests swell
check to see if uou have ETF that has exposr to
Argentine?

Spasibo for your input, Vadym!

We're all friends here.

?

Agreed, I was just saying "thank you" in Russian, which I assume he speaks. I'm trying to learn a few phrases here & there since my wife's family all speak it...

Jock and others had this discussion about TA. Jock said:

“Valleyrat - TA, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. I'm always amazed at how different TA packages - supposedly using the same parameters on the same indicators - show different values. Telecharts says wait, while Tradestation says buy!
TA's NOT science. So, the only thing to do is develop your own style, and follow it consistently. I can't understand how people draw such fine trendlines, and believe they MUST not be violated. If they are violated, even once, even for a few minutes, prospects change. Really?
Goes without saying that the indicators people choose to emphasize are also their own choices. Gold may just test everybody's favorite "support level" - unless it doesn't!
It may even test Fibonnaci's - although he died about 750 years ago, LONG before the invention of financial markets! LOL
I think people long for certainty and predictability, and through TA people try to convince themselves they're standing on solid ground.
But it's not that kind of world; it's an uncertain, probabilistic world -- not solid ground, rather more like a lake on which swim "black swans" more numerous than the "normal distribution" would allow .. “

Posted by: Jock at April 29, 2008 4:54 PM [link]

Jock and others, I think the point of everything we are trying to do is find a method/system that allows us to navigate the shark infested waters we swim in aka “the market.” The method of choice must suit your personality or you are doomed to frustration.

In this light, I was perusing a book I have not read in 16 years, “Technical Traders Guide to Computer Analysis of the Futures Market by Charles Le Beau and David W. Lucas.”

Here are some of the statements made that I highlighted those 16 years ago.

Allow for the possibility a trend may begin or end at any moment.

Focus on measuring and analyzing what is happening, rather than forecasting what should happen.

Wait until actual price action confirmed that their assumptions were correct.

Very little is ever known in this