Shark,

It is your opinion to express and that is your right... the problem with our country is "politically" correct, limited liability. Step back and think about that for a moment.
We now live in a society when people will ridicule you for speaking your opinion?
Not in these words, someone said that is why America is on the wrong track. oh please spare me the ignorance.
The Boston Tea Party wasn't politically correct but it was good for the start of our country....

PLEASE step out of your comfort zone and appreciate other opinions. Embrace it! It isn't the problem, the problem is not understanding why people have their opinion.

If your opinion isn't mainstream, we should hear it! It starts dialogue in which we will all benefit from by learning those opinions. THAT IS A GOOD THING.

Yesterday, someone mentioned they couldn't vote for Billary, nor could I, but they're all politicians. Here's a link on Obama from Snopes:

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/50lies.asp

Norm,
We have always lived in a society where you are ridiculed for an opinion if it is not of the mainstream. Political Correctness is a recent term for a very old idea.

Revolution may be a bit more difficult now. Whereas during the Revolutionary War both sides were relatively equal on the quality of weaponry. Despite all the hurlyburly about guns in the US, the government has much greater firepower than the citizenry. So, it'll likely have to be a Ghandi thing.

Bill,

I am truly sorry for the loss of your friend.

.... the Argument Clinic?

Recent "discourse" here is reminding me of the classic Monty Python sketch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3HaRFBSq9k

Let's put the polemics aside and get back to focusing on how to defend our interests against Central Banks and HB&B !!!

http://tiny.cc/EsTgI Bill I ,saw this chart I thought you would find it interesting.I found it in an article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

SORRY, http://tiny.cc/K4JV6
THIS SHOULD TAKE YOU TO THE RIGHT PAGE!

Is anyone watching the Florida hearings?

It's interesting. These politicians are saying things like "don't let the Florida votes go uncounted", and don't disenfranchise the Floridians.

What's interesting is, the U.S. constitution doesn't say anything about political parties or primary elections. It's political parties that are extra-constitutional and there is no constitutional right to vote in primary elections, or to even hold them, or even to force people and politicians to be involved in them. If you ask me, American politics are being held hostage by these other-than-constitutional political parties.

Mike,

Chung lost his job over that? What a raw deal. And by the way Craig, I actually saw one yesterday. But they're a little bit like sports cars. Just when you're enjoying the drive, you see one you'd like to drive more. I still appreciate your message to me though.

Norm, Jock, Shark, etc. Politics is fine. Differing opinions are fine. Discussion of the facts on these topics is fine. No one is saying discussion of politics, generally accepted or not, politically correct or not, is an issue.

I have noted myself that I will not vote for Hillary Clinton, but it isn't because she is a woman. It is because of my interpretation of her character or lack of character. I could as easily say I think she has a sense of entitlement, which is what Shark was saying before he got himself off course.

Racism and sexism are not acceptable forms of discussion in any format.
Are you discussing politics and ideas or attacking humans for the unchangeable?

Shark is a smart person. He is fully capable of giving us sound reasoning for not voting for Hillary Clinton besides her gender, which is completely irrelevant. He is capable of describing a feeling of entitlement without resorting to insults.

I'm sorry, but to accept this type of discourse is to accept sexism and racism. To do or say nothing is the same acceptance.

I will not accept this as political talk, it isn't. It is what it is, sexism and racism.

To be quite frank, shark so far has presented us with his supposed political platform and he neatly ascribes to the first five or six of the 25 items of the platform of the Nazi people's party of the 1930's. I'm not going to accept that either.

I will leave this list before I accept anymore disrespectful talk of women, blacks, Mexicans, or one more racist comment from Mr. shark in this worldwide community.

I can talk all day and night and debate for as long as you can stand about real topics without adhominem attacks. I expect others to give us their best most intelligent arguments they are right, not the weakest pathetic reason they are wrong. All I've seen so far is the ignorant and ugly.
From Webster's:
Adhominem: "Appealling to one's feelings and prejudices instead of their intellect".

If Bill wants to host such a blog then I'm done and I'll find another blog. I'm sure there are several women, Hispanics and black skinned people from around the world that are thinking the same thing.

I can't think of one reason they would want to participate here with one of the community putting on his white robes and pointy hat and attacking them for who or what they are.

Is that what this blog is for or about.....or is it about "Capital Markets and SOCIAL EQUITY?

Craig,

For Christ's sake, I told you I appreciate your perspective. What the hell more do you want? I seriously doubt I subscribe to the Nazi party platform, not that I know what it is. I decry ILLEGAL immigration which probably comes from all around the world, but if you knew the grief I get from Mexican landscapers when all I want is cheap lawncare you'd have more sympathy.
I admit that I have a problem with the social engineers who'd like to install a female president, which I understand is a prejudicial viewpoint on my part but I wanted to share my feelings with you. Not all feelings are grounded in pure rationality, which reminds me.

Anyone listen to Coast to Coast AM? They're having a fascinating guest tonight.

Sat 05.31 >>
Lecturer Ori Brafman and his brother, psychologist Dr. Rom Brafman will discuss their new book Sway, which looks at why people make irrational choices.

Maybe rather than starting trouble with YOUR exclusionary, my-way-or-the-highway attitude, you should find another blog, which saddens me to agree with, but it was your suggestion. I sure as hell aint going anywhere.

TA for the GDX shows a few encouraging signs for those of us long the miners.

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

Bill, I am sorry for your loss.

I posted this week on the 6-month % change in Real PCE. You can see graphically that the level and duration qualifies for the term "recession".

Despite good relative performance of Business Investment (reported withe Durable Goods Orders),
I think that the Business Sector will follow the Consumer sector into a recession.

Craig,

You're right, some of the Nazi platform makes a lot of sense. A lot of it is socialism. Maybe we're the real Nazi's eh?

The program of the NSDAP

25 points:

1. We demand the unification of all Germans in the Greater Germany on the basis of the right of self-determination of peoples.

2. We demand equality of rights for the German people in respect to the other nations; abrogation of the peace treaties of Versailles and St. Germain.

3. We demand land and territory (colonies) for the sustenance of our people, and colonization for our surplus population.

4. Only a member of the race can be a citizen. A member of the race can only be one who is of German blood, without consideration of creed. Consequently no Jew can be a member of the race.

5. Whoever has no citizenship is to be able to live in Germany only as a guest, and must be under the authority of legislation for foreigners.

6. The right to determine matters concerning administration and law belongs only to the citizen. Therefore we demand that every public office, of any sort whatsoever, whether in the Reich, the county or municipality, be filled only by citizens. We combat the corrupting parliamentary economy, office-holding only according to party inclinations without consideration of character or abilities.

7. We demand that the state be charged first with providing the opportunity for a livelihood and way of life for the citizens. If it is impossible to sustain the total population of the State, then the members of foreign nations (non-citizens) are to be expelled from the Reich.

8. Any further immigration of non-citizens is to be prevented. We demand that all non-Germans, who have immigrated to Germany since the 2 August 1914, be forced immediately to leave the Reich.

9. All citizens must have equal rights and obligations.

10. The first obligation of every citizen must be to work both spiritually and physically. The activity of individuals is not to counteract the interests of the universality, but must have its result within the framework of the whole for the benefit of all Consequently we demand:

11. Abolition of unearned (work and labour) incomes. Breaking of rent-slavery.

12. In consideration of the monstrous sacrifice in property and blood that each war demands of the people personal enrichment through a war must be designated as a crime against the people. Therefore we demand the total confiscation of all war profits.

13. We demand the nationalization of all (previous) associated industries (trusts).

14. We demand a division of profits of all heavy industries.

15. We demand an expansion on a large scale of old age welfare.

16. We demand the creation of a healthy middle class and its conservation, immediate communalization of the great warehouses and their being leased at low cost to small firms, the utmost consideration of all small firms in contracts with the State, county or municipality.

17. We demand a land reform suitable to our needs, provision of a law for the free expropriation of land for the purposes of public utility, abolition of taxes on land and prevention of all speculation in land.

18. We demand struggle without consideration against those whose activity is injurious to the general interest. Common national criminals, usurers, Schieber and so forth are to be punished with death, without consideration of confession or race.

19. We demand substitution of a German common law in place of the Roman Law serving a materialistic world-order.

20. The state is to be responsible for a fundamental reconstruction of our whole national education program, to enable every capable and industrious German to obtain higher education and subsequently introduction into leading positions. The plans of instruction of all educational institutions are to conform with the experiences of practical life. The comprehension of the concept of the State must be striven for by the school [Staatsbuergerkunde] as early as the beginning of understanding. We demand the education at the expense of the State of outstanding intellectually gifted children of poor parents without consideration of position or profession.

21. The State is to care for the elevating national health by protecting the mother and child, by outlawing child-labor, by the encouragement of physical fitness, by means of the legal establishment of a gymnastic and sport obligation, by the utmost support of all organizations concerned with the physical instruction of the young.

22. We demand abolition of the mercenary troops and formation of a national army.

23. We demand legal opposition to known lies and their promulgation through the press. In order to enable the provision of a German press, we demand, that: a. All writers and employees of the newspapers appearing in the German language be members of the race: b. Non-German newspapers be required to have the express permission of the State to be published. They may not be printed in the German language: c. Non-Germans are forbidden by law any financial interest in German publications, or any influence on them, and as punishment for violations the closing of such a publication as well as the immediate expulsion from the Reich of the non-German concerned. Publications which are counter to the general good are to be forbidden. We demand legal prosecution of artistic and literary forms which exert a destructive influence on our national life, and the closure of organizations opposing the above made demands.

24. We demand freedom of religion for all religious denominations within the state so long as they do not endanger its existence or oppose the moral senses of the Germanic race. The Party as such advocates the standpoint of a positive Christianity without binding itself confessionally to any one denomination. It combats the Jewish-materialistic spirit within and around us, and is convinced that a lasting recovery of our nation can only succeed from within on the framework: common utility precedes individual utility.

25. For the execution of all of this we demand the formation of a strong central power in the Reich. Unlimited authority of the central parliament over the whole Reich and its organizations in general. The forming of state and profession chambers for the execution of the laws made by the Reich within the various states of the confederation. The leaders of the Party promise, if necessary by sacrificing their own lives, to support by the execution of the points set forth above without consideration.

In response to Shark's stirring defense of the Nazi's .....

I'd like to mention Tim Ord, a Wyckoffian trader with useful insights into volume as a determinant of stock market direction. Moreso than other disciples of Wyckoff, Ord's methods apply to long-term swing and position trades as well as bar-by-bar analysis.

Each Wed. he posts his views for free at decisionpoint.com :

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

His new book, although hampered by poor writing cluttered graphics, spells out his methods quite convncingly.

further on the TA vs 'instinct' discussion:

"Tom Wolfe’s “The Right Stuff” tells the story of our first astronauts, and charts the demise of the maverick, Chuck Yeager test-pilot culture of the nineteen-fifties. It was a culture defined by how unbelievably dangerous the job was. Test pilots strapped themselves into machines of barely controlled power and complexity, and a quarter of them were killed on the job. The pilots had to have focus, daring, wits, and an ability to improvise—the right stuff. But as knowledge of how to control the risks of flying accumulated—as checklists and flight simulators became more prevalent and sophisticated—the danger diminished, values of safety and conscientiousness prevailed, and the rock-star status of the test pilots was gone."

full link (kind of irrelevant, but want to attribute the quote to the right person): http://tinyurl.com/2x4hge

so really, the science of technical analysis is a big step in the right direction...

Seeing the action in TBT this week, am getting more and more convinced that the "sell bonds" trade has started to work. TBT finds every reason to go up and resists going down. If the oil price is not taken down big time early next week, I expect the markets to decline, bonds will go up a little, and I'll buy some TBT at the end of the week. Here are some exerpts from the latest John Mauldin's newsletter about Europe:

"But regardless of where one falls on the answers to these questions, one thing is sure: selling the bonds of Europe's weakest signatures and buying protection on Europe's weaker banks continues to make sense. It is some of the cheapest protection available against what remains a massive "fat- tail" risk to our financial systems. That's why we love this trade so much: the potential rewards are huge and the upfront costs still marginal. More importantly, it is a very good hedge against what would be a nightmare scenario for many financial institutions."

In the middle of his newsletter, John Mauldin noted that another reason for the interest rates to rise is US/Europe is because Asian countries are finishing buying US and European bonds in large quantities. Someone on this blog mentioned that China is planning to buy commodities with its supply of dollars and Euro. Other Asian countries will follow their example, which they would do instead of buying US/European bonds.

So apparently, it might make sense to diversify the "sell bonds" trade into some European bonds of the weaker countries. Is anyone aware of the relevant ETFs?

DavidV

shark- IMO you're extremely intelligent, and sounds like you have a decent education...i can only imagine how far you could go in the right job-> which isn't daytrading, my friend (the percentage of traders who succeed is quite small..Vad is one of the exceptional ones that make it)...i can also imagine how marrying the right woman would entirely change your perspective-> won't go so far to say your first wife was not the one, but it sounds that way...

i enjoy reading your posts...everyone here has worked through/is working through/will be working through things, and it really doesn't bother me much to read antagonistic points of view in print-> in general, i would rather see 'too much' than 'too little'-> it's amazing how much goes unsaid in life, to the detriment of understanding and communication...

go to it, man...

There's a round table of market technicians on Puplava's first hour of audios. The link should be good until next week.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

It all seems to hinge on the true cause of high oil prices. We shall know soon.

I think the Fed is at fault for 1.) debasing the currency 40% since 2001, and 2.) for flooding the world with liquidity in a highly inflationary environment. The liquidity seeks the obvious home, commodoities, and boosts demand higher than it would have been otherwise.

It's amazing to me Ben has almost everyone fooled into thinking he's the solution of the mess, when the Fed and the Treasurary are the cause.

Now that they have brought us to our knees, actual demand from China and India will hammer the nail the rest of the way into our coffin. They've already sacrificed the Airlines to save a couple banks. More banks are going to fold imminently, and there is no end in sight to falling RE prices. Just wonder who they will sacrifice next to cover up the big Ponzi scheme.

Shark Attack Could you do us the favor of posting your name at the top of your posts? It would be greatly appreciated by this reader. TIA

From Richard W. Fisher Storms on the Horizon
Remarks before the Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, California
May 28, 2008

Purging rampant inflation and a debased currency requires administering a harsh medicine. We have been there, and we know the cure that was wrought by the FOMC under Paul Volcker. Even the perception that the Fed is pursuing a cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period.

Viso: on Fishers Speech.

Interesting to note that after that speech
was delivered (5/28/08 3:00ish et) the market,
rallied into the close off of consolidation. The
market continued the rally into 2:30 the next day.

Not at all sure what it means if anything; I want
to believe the FED will become very hawkish in
the coming months although I'm doubtful.

Mishkin resigning is a step in the correct direction, but Heli-Ben carries the ball.

Fisher comments:
"The even more disturbing dark and dirty secret about deficits—especially when they careen out of control—is that they create political pressure on central bankers to adopt looser monetary policy down the road."

I would say our deficit is careening out control
and he is not talking in the future tense.

I was so sorry to read about the passing of Ian Notley.

I appreciate your wonderful detailed obituary comments. I wish I had known Mr. Notley; now I never will.

My condolences Bill on Ian Notley, one of your respected mentors...

Condolences, Bill. This is one of those situations where the right words escape me. It sounds like you are continuing Ian's philosophies and memorializing the man and his contributions. There's no higher embodiment of regard. Well done.

Now a question, one I should ask on Monday when more pros are reading:

In general, after establishing and surpassing the hurdle, does the payout exclude the gains between 0 and the hurdle? Or is it "below hurdle: zero payout. Above hurdle, payout on on full gains?"

2nd,

Why are you so sure I won't be a successful daytrader? Reasons please.

Charlieatthelake,

Of what possible benefit could it be to me to have you know my name?

Craig:

when you mention: Now to how it works. I think you have it completely backwards. People don't get what they deserve. They get what they ask for, what they *project*. Casey may chime in here on the Tao and he is more than welcome to.

Where to start: the law of attraction folks would say: you get what you ask for.

From a Taoist perspective I am not sure I could summarize it easily: Karma, Yin / Yang, balance... it all mixes together.

What we get is in reflection to the actions that we accept as ourselves. Its about how we embrace the world. It's just each person is such a complicated mixture of desires. Not many people can simplify their desires in such a way to embrace what they "think" they want.

Also too many people forfeit their actions, and as result get whatever sh*t that rolls down hill from society...

peace

Nemo: US, the government has much greater firepower than the citizenry. So, it'll likely have to be a Ghandi thing.

The problem is for that to work, people will have to 1) be willing to let go of the various comforts the society provides.... Looking outside the window of any main street of america, you cant even tell we are in a war...

2) Be willing to act, truly be oneself... too many people in the United States have been taught to be individualistic by consumption and not in true personal expression.

It's going to take quite a bit to get people to those two points, even with the current set of social and fiscal problems on the horizon.

This isn't the culture of the late 60's where the country was literally on edge of revolution... the power brokers learned quite a bit from that decade and remove much of what would have enabled people to resist the current power base.

So it goes...

peace

shark- the odds...

2nd,

You and I know each other well in this forum and I know that you are a very talented trader. I am here to assure you that I too have an awesome talent, different from yours, not as developed as Vad's perhaps YET...But I promise you. I have been on the good side of enough market action to know that this is the careeer for me, and that I will make good in my chosen profession. I assure you that this is so, and you can take it to the bank. I WILL stay in this game, and I WILL succeed if it's the last and only thing I ever do. And I am happy knowing you will be with me every step of the way.

And to anyone who is too thick to understand, that Nazi stuff was Craigs idea, I was just using it as an illustration of how stupid his comment was earlier. It was meant as hyperbolic irony, not as an endorsement of 3rd Reich policy.

(btw, if i had to guess, would say any correlation between IQ and success as a daytrader would be modest at best, and to the extent there is a correlation-> beyond a certain point further increases in IQ would be negatively correlated with success)...JMO...

2nd...I love you man, you know that.

shark- we disagree then-> i have never thought i had much talent as a trader...luck, maybe...have never even come close to thinking about quitting my day job...and i'm pretty certain if i did try to make a living trading i'd last no more than a year...however-> i admire your persistence, and look forward to seeing/(maybe helping) you succeed...

casey would be proud...that, or he's ROFLHAO...;)

2nd,

You have a killer instinct for this business. I probably would have sold my DCR up 12% Friday had I been you, but like I said, we all have our particular styles. Now there's a bad thunderstorm her now, I'm shutting down and signing off. See you guys on Monday. Could be a good day for your DCR.

shark has certain skills. he's shared some plays and techniques with me that haven't really showed up here. that's why I've never, ever said "hey man, why don't you hold on to some positions, that's where the money is" frankly it's his business and I don't want to disturb his vision. shark makes money. i dunno how much and it's not my business. but he's playing golf cuz he's done trading on days i'm sitting in my cube sucking up to my idiot boss. so i'm not telling him anything.

it's like that story "unaccompanied sonata." he's playing his music and i'm not going to pollute his vision.

frankly, i wish everyone, everywhere, who talks about trading - bloggers, commenters, columnists, etc., would also post their equity curves. when my little fund is up and running, a link to my curve is going in my sig. then everyone will know exactly how much or how little credence my words on trading are worth.

but i do feel that comments on the guys marriage and constantly telling him to not say this or that are just way out of line. keep the focus on the words and the ideas. to me there's just no bounds there. words and ideas, whether you think them odious or not, are just that. if you chose to let some anonymnous, random poster on a blog offend or upset you, it's simply a choice you have made.

Aurator,

Are you thinking the FED-pumped liquidity is going through the failing financial institutions, into commodities? The huge rise sucks in even larger external capital, and at some point the financial institutions extract the liquidity + external capital?

Shark Attack: If your name preceded your post then I could chose whether to read it or not. TIA

charlie,
please do the same.

ditto the reason.

TIA

This forum is getting a little 'out of control' - when things are good, this forum is great....please...let's keep it that way or some Big Daddy has to come in from the warm Caribbean sun and sort things out - waste of his time, no? and a waste of mine as well.

We all appreciate your better parts of contribution.

Thank you for listening.

Will AAUK abandon Peru?

A US banker/blogger based in Lima thinks it highly likely, due to local rejection in Cajamarca region of a copper project for which AAUK bid $400M.

More evidence that some local communities in Peru are rejecting new mines. In Peru and Argentina (elsewhere?) "province risk" must be assessed as well as "country risk".

http://www.incakolanews.blogspot.com/

Shark - a suggestion

Why don't you post your anti-immigrant sentiments to an anti-immigrant blog, your anti-woman sentiments to an anti-woman blog, and your anti-ivy-league sentiments to an anti-ivy-league blog?

I'll look forward to your sentiments on trading!

what about the anti-corn syrup people sticking to the anti-corn syrup blogs? and taking weight loss posts to the weight loss blogs. that stuff wasn't even close to on-topic but you haven't invited any of those guys to take it off the blog.

pretty unfair to single out one fellow.

(for the record, I think Chelsea Clinton jokes are crappy. but i think singling out one guy's off-topic thoughts because a person does not agree with them, and raising not a peep about other off-topic thoughts that are inline with the groupthink is about a million times worse. but hey, i'm funny that way. i like it when unpopular thoughts get just as much room to run as those favored by with the majority.)

Mike...

Lay off the corn syrup commentary, or you will look like a fool. The blog is partially self help. Not being dead, is step one.
You like your syrup, have at it.

Try to help some people, and they are ungrateful.

Today's threads are 80% OT. I take no BS from noone.

You know, there are thousands of blogs out there that thrive on people whining about just about everything. I don't see why this one needs to accumulate that kind of negative energy.

I take it as a sign noone can trade this mess and are under water. If so, it's not getting any better from here, probably for years.

Mike Larson on the bond markets

Heres a link to an Articleby him entitled,
"Treasuries Cracking! Rates Rising! "

http://tinyurl.com/3myas4

It looks like everyone out there is on the falling bond wagon now. Is there a single analyst that says to buy bonds? Very easy money for everyone then? This does not seem right.

More ammunition for TBT/PST/SKF. This looks like a no-brainer to me...

Bill,
My personal condolences on the passing of a great friend.
I lost my mother last week and I know that they continue to live on in us.

Long time lurker here.

Here is my humble reminder for those sniping back and forth about the proper scope of discourse here; I submit that the overwhelming majority of readers are here to share and gain information regarding:

1. Capital markets; and
2. Social Equity.

It seems I've heard that before, somewhere.

I have to believe that anyone smart enough to deploy capital against the Market can figure out if they are truly discussing a relevant aspect of either Capital markets or Social Equity--or not.

Whether or not an individual chooses to post accordingly is their choice, but I believe a sincere desire by community members here to discuss their viewpoints regarding Capital Markets and Social Equity, or both, will continue to enrich readers and overcome any individuals that may or may not be a "distraction" . . .

[Bill Cara note: Thank you Jagvocate. It seems to me that having a broad respect for others (essential to any concept of social equity) leads one to trying to understand them in the collective sense. Those who are caught up in their own notions, however, are far more susceptible to missing significant events in capital markets, like trend and cycle reversals.]

SiO2
Your comment is timely. I just glanced at the most recent BCA Research posting (at http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp) and they address that topic.

Their conclusion: "Bottom line: The selloff in major bond markets should soon level off. If instead yields back up significantly further, we will be tempted to implement a tactical long duration position because some of the major countries are not strong enough to withstand a major backup in yields."

So then I wonder, which is supporting oil prices - demand (as per Paulson), or speculation (as per OPEC)? I'm getting the feeling there's an argument being levied through the press. Looking back the past few years, the press usually wins the argument.

i cant believe im up this early on a sunday,
i guess part of getting older is accepting that you dont have be out on the town every saturday night,
ive been up for a while and without any hangover clouds i cant believe how productive ive been.

the streets are covered with people ive never seen before in my neighbourhood because they are the morning risers...

anyway, just caught up on the discourse and having been a regular at lots of different blogs of varying subjects i can say that the variance in subject matter is nothing new, especially as the conversations continue outside of trading hours.

not sure if anyone has made the suggestion that forums be created to separate subject matter, at least on a very basic level like: bonds,gold,non-market general topics, politics, TA etc etc...

just my own 2 cents.

"It seems to me that having a broad respect for others (essential to any concept of social equity) leads one to trying to understand them in the collective sense."

every community (work, play, residential, religious) we belong to is like that-> people start off on-topic, get to know each other, then off-topic conversation becomes part of the mix...unless you're a hermit, that's life...

in general, the off-topic posts ENRICH the discourse more than they DETRACT from it-> for those who wish to skip the off-topic remarks, one poster long ago pointed out the scroll button works very nicely for that purpose...

I don't see anything wrong with the OT comments on the weekend. I do wonder where the imperical evidence is that tells us if we live a certain way according to the Bible or other religious books or philosophical concepts like Eastern religions that we will derive a better position in life or be treated better by others. It seems to me to be a bunch of one liners to nowhere. Although treating others like we would like to be treated is sound does it always come back at us? Is there really a payoff in real terms and what are the real life examples? Gandi shut down a country using some of these methods to an end mean. It was not freely given.

Having respect for the views of others does not necessarily mean that one has to hold them in esteem. It can also mean that in making a decision you give them consideration.

Several members on my family are German Jews who emigrated from Germany to the US in 1936. I was only 5 years old at the time, but I remember overhearing intense discussions as to whether it would better to remain in Germany in the hope that the wave of Nazism was a temporary phenomemon that would soon pass, or whether it was better to accept the loss of virually all wealth and leave for the US before such emigration would become impossible. Fortunately for me my parents did not remain.

In making these life and death decisions the members of my family that emigrated accorded the views of the Nazis a very healthy respect in that they believed that the force of the hate they were hearing on a daily basis would overwhelm them because there was no equally strong countervailing force.

So, I do believe that even hateful Nazi era views should not be suppressed. They should be opposed by those who are not in agreement. Only in this manner can we know how much respect (consideration not esteem) to accord such views.

Bill, my condolences to you on the passing of your friend and mentor.

Regarding what is and isn't proper discourse, I agree completely with Jagvocate's take on this. I know that Bill is sensitive to the concerns of others; regarding profanity, for example. However, sometimes someone will express an opinion that is itself profane and it leads to distractions such as the one we have experienced here.

I don't subscribe to the notion that expressing bigoted opinions is somehow worthy simply by virtue of the fact that it is someone "freely expressing themselves." That's bunk, and a healthy community should call out it for what it is.

I can think of another blog, in particular, that is ruined by the off-topic excretions of a select few. And then, of course, there is Yahoo.

This on the other hand is a great community. I thank Bill for giving us wide latitude in expressing ourselves. And for providing the leadership that makes the discussion of such high quality.

You guys are way too much. An opinion that is iteslf profane? Get real. I am going to go through this one more time. We have an uncountably large number of illegal Mexicans working illegally in the United States. How many? Some think the number may be 30 million people, others think the number may be higher, perhaps 40 million people. To decry their presence and to demand legal action against them is no less appropriate on my part than to demand that purse snatchers, rapists and murderers be apprehended.

As you know, I am appalled by the statements and actions of the Clinton Crime Family. Hilary, Billy-Bob and precious little Chelsea. I'm appalled by the number of unexplained deaths of those close to the family, appalled by Bill's actions while president (both in and out of his BVD's), and now I am freshly appalled by wife Hilary's intransigence and bellicose attitude vis a vis yesterdays determinations by the DNC and her avowal to disregard them. By way of illustration, I offered a few humorous anecdotes designed to entertain, as well a few heartfelt opinions about the precedent-breaking and totally heretofore unexplored potentiality of experiencing the first female president. My opinions. Not yours.

So many of you are reasonable and understand that freedom of speech necessitates being exposed to ideas which run counter to your own beliefs and sensibilities. Many others of you do not, and seem to think that the first and most important priority of public discourse is that it be pleasing to the ear and unchallenging intellectually. I ask you...Who is really intolerant here and who is the open minded one?

Any tips, idea, inside knowledge about who is going to be in/out of The Russell 2000
Which is going through annual reconstitution before the final lists for 2008 are released June 27?

You just like to bite shark.

2nd: You are missing the point.
It isn't topics. That is a distraction to the central point of respectful discourse.

As Bill notes above, "It seems to me that having a broad respect for others (essential to any concept of social equity) leads one to trying to understand them in the collective sense."

The point then, once again, is *not topics*, but how they are discussed("with respect"), which is "essential". I have no desire to squelch discourse (or shark), that is clearly not the purpose of my posts and I think I made that abundantly clear.

We are essentially in Bill's living room as a group. Picture yourself there. There are all kinds of people from all over the world there with you including a bunch of women. Now imagine someone belittles women there in Bill's living room. What should happen?

I'm curious, are all you guys going to rush in to defend the offender?

Imagine one or more of those women are your daughters or Bill's daughter or wife.

What exactly are you *gentlemen* going to do?

THAT is essentially what happened.

I used to regularly forget that this blog has community members all over the world. It got me in trouble a couple times. Now I keep that in the back of my mind and try to remember our diversity. We aren't all white guys from Canada and New York (or Washington).

I think it behooves us to remember that.

After reading through all of the above, the following post maybe considered way off topic but I'll chance it. :-)

Permabear' Peter Schiff's Worst-Case Scenario
By Kirk Shinkle
May 30, 2008
US News and World Report

Economic punditry tends to fall broadly into glass-half-full or half-empty categories. Then there are those who see a cracked glass, teetering on the edge of a table just moments from a shattering fall. Enter Peter Schiff, the permabear president of brokerage Euro Pacific Capital and coauthor of last year's Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse.
Schiff spent the past decade urging brokerage clients to jump ship from the American economy ahead of what he views as inevitable pain caused by a toxic cocktail of lax monetary policy, wayward spending, and tougher competition from all corners of the globe.

Even with some pain already felt as America's economy stumbles, Schiff saw nothing but downside in a recent chat with U.S. News. You'll want to buckle up for some characteristically apocalyptic talk from one of the gloomiest market watchers around. Excerpts:

Say something positive about the U.S. economy.
There's nothing good to say about our situation. The policies both the Fed and government are pursuing are making the situation worse. We've been getting a free ride on the global gravy train. Other countries are starting to reclaim their resources and goods, so as Americans are priced out of various markets, the rest of the world is going to enjoy the consumption of goods Americans had previously purchased. This is a natural consequence of this phony economy. If America had maintained a viable economy and continued to produce goods instead of merely consuming them, and if we had saved money instead of borrowing, our standard of living could rise with everybody else's. Instead, we gutted our manufacturing, let our infrastructure decay, and encouraged our citizens to borrow with reckless abandon.

So what are you doing about it?
I'm getting my clients' money outside of the United States as fast as they can send it to me. I've been recommending that to my clients for close to 10 years. You've got to own resources and energy. I was saying oil was going to $200 a barrel in 2002. I've been buying gold, silver, industrial metals, and all kinds of stocks. My main theme is the global economy will survive and the U.S. economy is a disaster. Everything is about how you benefit from the increased purchasing power and rising standard of living in the rest of the world.

OK, where are the best non-U.S. markets this year?
I still like Singapore, Hong Kong. Asian markets are the place to be. I like resource markets like Scandinavia. I'm spreading my chips around the world. I'm just avoiding the United States.

What are your best or worst calls through this downturn?
I've been bearish on bonds. U.S. bonds have lost a lot of real value but not nominal value. I still think that's going to be proven to be correct. While the housing bubble was inflating, I was telling people to rent. I was telling people to get out of tech stocks in 1998 and 1999. They kept rising, but then they collapsed, and I turned out to be right. The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything.

Most people disagree with that sort of pessimism. If you're staying in the United States, how do you invest?
If you want to be in U.S markets, you avoid anything connected with the American economy. You avoid retailers, the home builders, the financials—anything having to do with consumers buying something or paying back the money they borrowed. If you want to invest in U.S. markets, stick with exporters and resource companies. I've been saying that for five or six years; I haven't gotten anything wrong. We shorted subprime mortgages. I have clients that made 10 times their money. We've never sold an oil stock. We've never sold a gold stock.

Why don't you think soaring oil, grains, or commodities prices are the next bubble?
These prices do not constitute bubbles. They simply constitute the repricing of goods to reflect the diminished value of our money. The way you can tell there's not a bubble is that these markets are clearing. People are buying food and eating it. They're buying gasoline and using it. Speculators aren't buying gasoline and warehousing it in big facilities because they think the price is going to go up. At the same time, we've increased the supply of money dramatically, and the Fed is increasing it even faster now to deal with the bursting of the housing bubble. The only thing that can happen is for prices of commodities to rise to reflect the equilibrium of a greater supply of money. It's not even that oil prices are going up. Oil prices are staying the same. What's happening is the value of money is diminishing, so we need more units of currency to buy the same amount of oil or wheat or corn or whatever.

How about some predictions?
• I think the stock market is headed lower. Gold is going to be $1,200 to $1,500 by the end of the year. That puts the Dow at a less-than-10-to-1 price ratio to gold. Right now, it's about 13 to 1. That's another 30 percent drop in the real value of stocks by the end of the year if you price them in gold. The Dow was worth 43 ounces of gold in 2000. It'll get to 10 by the end of the year and continue to fall from there.

• Oil prices had a pretty big run and might not make more headway by the end of the year. But we could see $150 to $200 next year. I don't think oil will hit $250 because there will be enough destruction of demand in the United States to keep it from doubling. The big problem for us is if the Chinese substantially allow their currency to rise. It could increase at least fivefold against the dollar over the span of a year or two. That reduces the price of oil by 80 percent for 1.3 billion Chinese. Consumption would go through the roof, and that will drive prices through the roof for us.

• At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value. I'm confident that by next year we'll see more aggressive movements to abandon the dollar by the [Persian] Gulf region and by the Asian bloc. That's where the stuff really hits the fan.

You're a Ron Paul adviser. He's out of contention, so who wins the election, and what happens then?
The Obama presidency will be like the Jimmy Carter presidency on steroids. I'm pretty sure it's Obama because the economy will be so bad into the election that as damaged a candidate as the guy is, I don't think a Republican could beat him. I think Ron Paul could've had a slim chance because he was different enough.

So how bad do you think this economy will get?
The other problem we'll have during those years is civil [unrest]. There will be a big increase in crime. People are going to be hungry. People are going to be cold. There's a sense of entitlement in this country, and when a lot of people used to having things suddenly don't, everybody looks for someone to blame.

Really?
We're going through a very rough period in our history. In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression.

2nd

It had been four month since I started trading. And not happy at my record.
I did make more than what mutual fund or CD would have earned me.
But I look at amount of time I spend about studying and reading about market and return
I got is not good.
May be I should change my approach, I should invest more time and little money in to it
Presently I only subscribe to Barons and WSJ
I found Bill’s approach is right one for me
Since I do not follow TA and do not have expertise in it I will follow CARA 1000
And will buy the one comes under recommended list and se what happens in next 3 month
Will not touch stock under $5. Stock is under 5 for reason
I hope more member will talk and discuss about market and stock in this BLOG.
We are here because we respect, trust, and have faith in Bill and his advice. I do believe that one should have only one GURU
To follow. Too many GURUS is bad to play the market

What cracks me up is I agree with most of Sharks basic points when he makes then intelligently.

I don't go for the conspiracy/tin foil hat stuff, but his observations on the raw politics are accurate enough.

To his point on immigration:
I have no idea how he would discern anyone of the other hispanic *citizens* or non-citizens from Mexicans or Mexican American *citizens* or non-citizens (or any other citizens with dark/olive complexions) without infringing on the search and seizure rights he was so concerned about Mayor Bloomberg infringing on the other day.
Maybe he can tell us how that could be done....and he wouldn't be searched or Governor Richardson being detained?

That racial profiling argument doesn't seem to be getting much traction in light of the Constitution.

Vinod -

I'd encourage you to study TA as it is very hard to operate without it in market driven by speculators.

Thanks for your post about the Russel 2000 recomposition.

I was traveling on Friday so I'm taking a look at the charts now and I see the S&P lost more than 3 points in the last five minutes of trading. Seems strange.

The hourly chart shows a possible head and shoulders forming with a neckline of 1375. Trade through the neckline projects to 1310.

In the near future, I would like to buy alot of gold. Financially, I am doing ok. I do not have a wife or kids, so taking a chance is not a problem.
My question is about tapping into my 401k account for a loan. I have always been told this is a bad idea. Problem is, I can't figure out why. I realize I will have to pay back with "after tax" dollars, but I will also be buying the gold with "pre tax" dollars. This seems to even things out. I also realize I have to pay a 10% "penality" but I am paying this amount back to me.
The only small problem I see is that I will be taxed twice on this extra 10%...once when I pay back the loan, once when I retire and pull out this 10% money again.
Am I missing something? I would love to hear the reasons not to do this.

What cracks me up is, I agree with Craig a lot of the time when he makes his points intelligently.

QT- waay off, man...

re Schiff-> i agree with many of his predictions and the rationale he gives for them, and if he's been saying the same things for ten years, i have no problem with USNWR giving him a platform for exercising his bragging rights..

"I was telling people to get out of tech stocks in 1998 and 1999. They kept rising, but then they collapsed, and I turned out to be right. The reality is I don't think I've been wrong on anything."

"I've been saying that for five or six years; I haven't gotten anything wrong. We shorted subprime mortgages. I have clients that made 10 times their money. We've never sold an oil stock. We've never sold a gold stock."

to be his client would have required a lot of faith, though-> i wouldn't underestimate the pain of an investor following his advice during the final run of the NASDAQ in 1999-2000, or during any of the many sell-offs in gold stocks over the past few years...shorter time horizons work much better for me...of course, it would take someone with his mind-set (ie, never having gotten anything wrong, never sold an oil or gold stock) to stay the course...(the guy has done well...no disrespect intended, just having a little fun pulling his chain)...

vinod- you're right-> more than one 'guru' does not work..i've done well with bill's calls and his time frame(s) work for me...

if you learned a little about the market the past four months and preserved your capital at the same time, you did well...

Steve: You'll pay not only the 10% but the income tax twice.

The after tax dollars you use the pay it back (once) and then again when you pull it out in retirement (twice). That's approx. 35% so you have to do well above say Buffett returns to make it work.

If it's one of those 401K's with no cash acct option and it's stocks or bonds only, then factoring in possible losses as is may get you closer.

Back from the West Coast . . . after catching up and seeing numerous shark postings, he may be right about trying to find something else to do on weekends . . .

10 yr bond over 4% and all of a sudden it seems like everyone is now on the side of shorting bonds . . . usually when the ship tilts (TLT) one way, it rolls back. Haven't checked since returning from SFO, but noticed in the past a very high put/call ratio on TLT as well as large put LEAP positions. Nevertheless, still have RRPIX and watching the short bond ETFs.

Group dynamics—Forming, Storming, Norming.

That’s what I see in the blog—group dynamics—that continually evolves as we have newbies , long time resident posters and people who have come and gone (and returned in some cases).

When someone pushes the envelope, the group has managed sufficiently; If stepping over the line, one may be sent to the woodshed (voluntarily or forced) allowing to return after enlightenment of the rules of deportment as set by Bill and the community; in some repeated cases, some have been banned.

That’s Bill’s call and it’s his blog.

groups will usually self-regulate-> when stormin' norman starts forming the rules, then it's no longer a group...

To use shark’s words, “And to anyone who is too thick to understand” walking around NYC smoking a joint can get you arrested.

If it’s Victoria, B.C., no problem, you’ll probably be joined by others. If it’s Anchorage or Portland, OR, you’re ignored or given a ticket. Have to know the lay of the land and where you are. It’s like markets.

FWIW, NYPD has reduced overall violent crime thru an enforcement program that includes minor, misdemeanor offenses. It’s actually more effective in reducing violent crime than concentrating all resources just on the violent crime, believe it or not. I won’t go into explaining all the details and whys and why nots. It is what it is. (And straight comparisons between all cities doesn’t work—it’s like comparing apples and oranges).

(Disclosure: I don’t smoke)

Heading out to Wrigley to see the Cubbies on a sunny beautiful day!
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

2nd

Yes, they do regulate themselves and that's been successful here.

Good one-"stormin' norman"--didn't he play with the Bulls? Warriors? or maybe it was back in the old neighborhood?

Signing off

Craig:
But aren't you neglecting the fact that I am getting more gold (pre tax dollars) than I would otherwise (post tax dollars) get.
Lets put this in a very simplistic scenario. Lets assume I was about to be paid $100,000 by my work. I could:
a) put 100% into my 401k account ($100,000 pre tax).
b) put 100% into my savings account ($75,000 post tax).

Now I want to buy the gold with this money. Is it better to take out a $100,000 loan from my 401k account in which case I will now have $100,000 in gold, but I will have to pay back my 401k account in post tax dollars.................or
Buy $75,000 of gold with the money in my savings account.

http://www.box.net/shared/static/9pj4m2gkkw.xls The mentioned link is my non-sectarian, non-gender centric, ecumenical, apolitical weekly sector spreadsheet that you might find both informational and non-controversial. I prepare this every week. It is free, and I cannot see who downloads it. It is in Excel format.

vinod - Working long and hard without much return to show for it ...

I've been there; done that, too. Lots of possible reasons for it but one that might be overlooked if you do not do TA, and that is ATR (Ave True Range) is a way of looking at how much a stock, etf, fund moves in range on average in a day (or week).

StockCharts lets one screen for certain levels of ATR so one might screen for and trade only those stocks that move little or a lot.

For example, if one found that he made lots of successful trades during a month or so but wound up with little extra cash over what he started with, he might look to see if he is trading only small ATR stocks. One such stock (just for example) might be BMD, which is an oil sand company. Its AveTrueRange (ATR) is only around $0.04 per day per share.

On the other hand EOG, which is an oil shale company, has an ATR of around $5.10 per day per share.

Bottom line is for the same time and effort, the higher ATR stocks can earn (or lose) multiples more money.

NOT a recommendation for for either BMD nor EOG. Hope this helps.

Lets try to take this one step further.
Lets assume I make $100,000/year and I will buy $100,000 in gold.
Lets assume $100,000 pretax = $75,000 post tax.
Lets look at a 3 year period.

a)first year, I put all $100,000 into my 401k account.
At the end of year 1, I take out a $100,000 401k loan and buy $100,000 in gold.
At the end of year 2 I have paid back my 401k with $75,000 post tax dollars.
At the end of year 3, I paid back my 401k with $25,000 post tax dollars, paid a $10,000 post tax "penalty", and have $65,000 in savings account.

I now have $100,000 in gold, $110,000 in my 401k, and $65,000 in my savings account.

b)first year, I buy $75,000 gold with post tax dollars.
At the end of year 2 I buy another $25,000 in gold and put $75,000 in savings account.
At the end of year 3, I put $100,000 into my 401k account with pre tax dollars.
In this case, I now have $100,000 in gold, $100,000 in my 401k, and $75,000 in my savings account.

Which scenario is better? Case a or case b?

b)

stev1183--The scenarios that you list cannot be undertaken. You cannot contribute 100% pretax to a 401K. The limit is considerably less than that Further, many 401(k) plans provide loan limits that would not allow you to take out a 100% loan--the limits most likely are 50% and even then there might be an absolute dollar cap less than that. (Don't mean to sound like a nit picker). So providing a "which is better" between two impossible scenarios seems like a bit of a waste of time. What you want to construct is a discounted cash flow model to include all of the inflows and outflows and apply both a time frame and a hurdle rate.

I most appreciate Bil's blog for the financial knowledge. I get enough of the OT stuff in my off-line life.

In trying to understand the TOG concept, can't get my arms around why bonds should be sold. Perhaps if bonds are in your portfolio, this would be the move, however, I never could understand why owning bonds made sense without a realistic visibility on inflation (I've never trusted CPI numbers).

Did anyone listen to Coast to Coast last night? The subject was one that's quite germain to our activity. Some Wikipedia stuff about

Loss Aversion:

In prospect theory, loss aversion refers to the tendency for people strongly to prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains. Loss aversion was first convincingly demonstrated by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.

This leads to risk aversion when people evaluate a possible gain; since people prefer avoiding losses to making gains. This explains the curvilinear shape of the prospect theory utility graph in the positive domain. Conversely people strongly prefer risks that might possibly mitigate a loss (called risk seeking behavior).

Loss aversion may also explain sunk cost effects.

Loss aversion implies that one who loses $100 will lose more satisfaction than another person will gain satisfaction from a $100 windfall. In marketing, the use of trial periods and rebates try to take advantage of the buyer's tendency to value the good more after he incorporates it in the status quo.

Note that whether a transaction is framed as a loss or as a gain is very important to this calculation: would you rather get a 5% discount, or avoid a 5% surcharge? The same change in price framed differently has a significant effect on consumer behavior. Though traditional economists consider this "endowment effect" and all other effects of loss aversion to be completely irrational, that is why it is so important to the fields of marketing and behavioral finance.

Oddly enough, In my case I have no problem taking actual losses albeit small ones. Where this concept affects me most acutely is in my almost pathological fear of holding positions overnight, which aversion I am trying to disabuse myself of.

Leisa:
I wanted to make the scenario as simple as I could. Basically, I wanted someone to point out why everyone seems to think taking out a 401k loan is a TERRIBLE idea. I think the only bad thing about it is that a person gets taxed twice on the 10% "penalty" he has to pay back to his 401k.

seamus- no, stormin' norman refers to (retired) general H. Norman Schwarzkopf of operation desert storm fame...

here's an interesting anecdote from wikipedia:

"One of the most remarkable incidents in a very distinguished career happened on his second tour in Vietnam in March 1970. When Schwarzkopf received word that men under his command had encountered a minefield on the notorious Batangan Peninsula, he rushed to the scene in his helicopter, as was his custom while a battalion commander, in order to make his helicopter available. He found several soldiers still trapped in the minefield. Schwarzkopf urged them to retrace their steps slowly. Still, one man tripped a mine and was severely injured but remained conscious. As the wounded man flailed in agony, the soldiers around him feared that he would set off another mine. Schwarzkopf, also injured by the explosion, crawled across the minefield to the wounded man and held him down (he was a wrestler at West Point, so he used a "pinning" technique in the process), so another could splint his shattered leg. One soldier stepped away to break a branch from a nearby tree to make the splint. In doing so, he too hit a mine, killing himself and the two men closest to him, and blowing an arm and a leg off Schwarzkopf's artillery liaison officer.

"Eventually, Schwarzkopf led his surviving men to safety, by ordering the division engineers to mark the locations of the mines with shaving cream. (Some of the mines were of French manufacture and dated back to the Indochina conflict of the 1950s; others were brought by Japanese forces in World War II). Schwarzkopf was awarded his third Silver Star for his bravery but, more importantly to Schwarzkopf, he firmly cemented his reputation as an officer who would risk his life for the soldiers under his command. Schwarzkopf was always known as a tough but caring officer. He told his men that they might not like some of his strict rules, but it was for their own good. He told them "When you get on that plane to go home, if the last thing you think about me is 'I hate that son of a bitch', then that is fine because you're going home alive." Lt. General Hal Moore later wrote that it was during his time in Vietnam that Schwarzkopf acquired what would later become his infamous temper, while arguing via radio for passing American Hueys to land and pick up his wounded men."

I am also coming to the conclusion that this primary has become so divisive, and each candidate has been tainted to the degree that, neither Clinton nor Obama stands much of a chance against McCain.

SiO2- you're right...the short bond trade has gotten a little crowded (on the airwaves, anyway)...

but then, seeing the 10-year yield back over 4% will do that...the media is drawn to 'landmark' numbers...gas at 4, oil at 100, gold at 1000-> all got crowded, but all continued going up...

"The mentioned link is my non-sectarian, non-gender centric, ecumenical, apolitical weekly sector spreadsheet....non-controversial....I cannot see who downloads it."

Lesia
LOL...Thanks for the laugh. Something we need more here.

Regarding 401(K)loan paybacks: It's not really double taxation (though I see the USA Today article where someone says that it is)--You happen to be paying back an obligation that already had preferable tax treatment with non preferential dollars. Why would you get a double benefit? So long as you are able to pay back the loan AND continue to contribute at the maximum rate, you are not facing any real detriment--rather, you are restoring an asset. HOWEVER if by paying back the loan you have to reduce or curtail altogether your contributions then you have a detriment--a detriment all the more if you are forced into a higher tax bracket. To my mind, the real risk is that you take out a large loan, lose/change your job and then have to pay the loan back. IF you do not have funds readily available, not only will be taxed as if this were ordinary income received, but the 10% penalty to boot (and keep in mind this might put you in a not so pretty tax bracket). Another risk is that you will have to liquidate other assets at a price/tax disadvantage. But I readily admit to not following the conversation very closely.

QT--I'm of the mind that humor is divine in addition and connotes great genius)--said with fool's penchant for mock humility!

2nd

I agree with you, but his point on...

"So how bad do you think this economy will get?
The other problem we'll have during those years is civil [unrest]. There will be a big increase in crime............."

concerns me.

I love America, but I have to say as a whole, Americans are a spoiled bunch and when things take a turn for the worst, I am concerned on how they will respond to it. Already I am hearing stories of my friends who are in business and the problems they now having with the general public.

QT--A turn for the worse would probably be welcome. Why? Because we've become fat, dumb and happy in our excesses (though I know that many scratch out a living). A little trouble and discomfort will remind us about our commonalities, break down silos, allow us to find common ground. We'd spend less time grousing and more time doing that which moves us forward.

HBO's documentary on John Adams (a book that I read some time ago and was surprised by my fascination with the curmudgeonly but at all times duitiful and industrious John Adams). Nothing unites like adversity. And in watching this program I was reminded that complaint without action is lazy citizenry. We've plenty of that--particularly in the political silly season. But complaint WITH action (for the greater good; not for specious, mean objectives)--action that required enormous courage and energy, and dire consequences if the final outcome was failure--what defines a real citizen. Again--being fat, dumb and happy does not provide an ideal environment for real citizenry.

Now, don't take me to task for wishing ill to befall our populace--but I'll stand by the fat, dumb and happy comment. I do my own yardwork; I clean my own house; I cook my own meals. I find it an odd paradox that to find railing here against immigrants (of any persuasion). Why is it paradoxical? It is work that a person wishes NOT to do but pay another. And who is it that is willing to do this work? And so long as the price is right, most folks don't care where these folks are legal or not. Enough said.

Thought experiments are always interesting. Here's one. Our great country (USA) falls on its knees--bankrupt, little jobs to be had for a living wage, soaring interest rates and some measure of lawlessness--and our southern neighbors having become prosperous now afford greater opportunities (we've outsourced our industrial capacity to them)--but their system is somewhat closed though there is a real underground economy that is willing to employ undocumented American workers. If by breaking their laws (but filling a real need in their economy to work harder for less money) you could afford your family a better standard of living (enough food, shelter, healthcare )what would you do?

Personally, I'd be heading South and finding a way help my family fill their bellies and cover their head.

Spot

Thanks and very interesting to know about ATR, I will keep track of ATR for stock I trade

I went to do shopping today at peasant lane mall in Nashua N.H
First time I show very few people in mall even though unemployment in N.H and MA is around 3.0% lowest in 7 years
We went to olive garden restaurant to eat lunch and place was empty

I spend Friday with Human resource department to fix some computer problem and found that we have over 500 job opening paying between 80K to 180K and company can not find enough qualify people. We do not have any opening that pays $10 to $15 per hour

Folks, what's it gonna be, the Blue (chill pill) or the Red (idiot pill)?

vinod,
You have to find your own style. All I can say is never stop learning.

You may be approaching what Seth Godin calls The Dip, and it is this point in any endevour that will seperate failure from success.

Seth, on Dips:
"Every new project (or job, or hobby, or company) starts out exciting and fun. Then it gets harder and less fun, until it hits a low point-really hard, and not much fun at all.

And then you find yourself asking if the goal is even worth the hassle. Maybe you're in a Dip-a temporary setback that will get better if you keep pushing. But maybe it's really a Cul-de-Sac, which will never get better, no matter how hard you try.

What really sets superstars apart from everyone else is the ability to escape dead ends quickly, while staying focused and motivated when it really counts."

There you have it. You may have hit The Dip. The question is, how are you going to deal with it?

I'm not having a ton of fun trading, even though so, so many of my picks are proving to be correct and getting better. But this ain't Six Flags. So all I do is work harder.

My own personal journey to trading success is being built on my never-ending work to gain knowledge. I was just thinking this morning that my reading list over the past two years has grown HUGE, and I don't expect the pace of my quest to slow at any time in the future.

Pretty much all I do is study and, at work, do enough to appear busy, while I study more. My reading list is immense. I plow through a couple of market-related books every week. All day at work I run stock scans, looking for patterns and money flows. At night I do the same, checking the 52 week highs and lows, market breadth, sentiment, etc., reflected in the days closing prices. I explore indicators and parameters, and look for new tools.

My subway reading is no longer the NY Post, but "Come In to My Trading Room"; "Gold Trading Bootcamp"; "Beyond Greed"; Murphy's "Intermarket Analysis"; "Market Wizards"; "Master Traders";"Mean Markets and Lizard Brains"; Bernsteins update to his landmark book, "Capital Ideas Evolving." The latest addition to my list is the "Series 3 Study Guide" from Kaplan. I also have an audio book of a similar Series 3 guide. Right now I'm reading Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets."

And on and on. I do try to alternate books on economic and market history with pure trading methodology, and lighter with harder, to mix it up and not burn out.

At night, to relax while I grab dinner, I check out Financial Entertainment TV. Not for trades, but to familiarize myself with more and more stock names as they are brough up. I may scan the paper during that time, but when I turn off the TV to go to bed, I finish up the day by reading more of whatever market book I have going, and as I turn off the light I curse myself for being lazy and not learning more.

Not a single bit of that will give me a trade.

But here's one thing I have learned: The styles and types of trades available are immense. From all this learning and all the market successes and mistakes I have made and read about others making, I am gradually coming to realize some of what my style will evolve to be. When I combine what will become my own style with my relentless and never ending search for learning, I feel like the rewards will begin to flow like a river. I see it just over the horizon.

But that's just me. Maybe what works for other people is different. I have years and years to catch up on. I know that I know nothing and my tools are terrible. Almost 24/7 my mind is focused on improving each.

One last thought: It's not just the prop desks on the other side of the trades, trying to take away your money. It's individual guys like me, working and studying relentlessly, and there are more than a few of us out there. That's part of what drives me.

re: 401(K) loan discussion--Keep in mind that there is a difference between a 401(k) loan and a 401(k) hardship withdrawal. With a hardship withdrawal (which is only allowed for very specific criteria) you will pay taxes and a 10% penalty. There is usually no 10% penalty for loans.

Leisa - Thanks for your a-political spreadsheet. Very interesting.

Hey, look on the bright side, folks. At least we're not talking about KRY. ;)

#2: I was on Google Earth last night trying to find the KRY property. Dunno why. Just curious to take a look. I was going to post about it, but didn't want to break the mood with more KRY. ;-)

And then I spent an hour looking at satellite pictures of Saudi sheikh palaces and blurred Soviet/Russian bomber bases near Alaska. Man, those sheikhs have some nice piles. No wonder some middle eastern governments try to block Google Maps.

Anyone have any coordinates of interesting mines or anything? I'd like to check them out from space.

Good points Mike,

I would also add a point or 2. 4 months of trading is like, you're just getting started. As I said to Fred once, you can't have unrealistic expectations...ANY expectations for yourself at this point, you haven't even been around the block yet. In addition, this is a shitty market, the worst for bulls in a good many years. Were this 1996, I'm sure your experiences would be better, as I'm sure would mine.

Your challenge is to get some experience under your belt without losing your precious capital.
I know for a fact that doing what we're doing is the most fantastic, most dangerous, most beautiful game. The market has the power to enrich you, but it also has the power to destroy, and it is that power that must be respected above all. Do what my main man Paul Jones does. Don't ask how much you can make...Ask yourself how much you can lose.
I played golf the other day with a guy who was a floor trader on the NYSE during the 50's and 60's. Talk about commission spreads... Woweee...The times they are a changin' but from what I've seen you have the potential for greatness. The market is the last best hope for achieving freedom in a world where the walls are closing in on everyone and every organization. Stay alive today, and you can fight the good fight tomorrow. Lose your capital, and you're out of the game, maybe for good.

I think even Vadym admitted trading is difficult in these times,were trading in a bear market, thats a difficult market to trade in ,the trend is unforgiving and against us with many unknowns and threats of corrections at any time.

spot: I know a lot about BMD, technically and fundamentally. Funny you bring that up.

BMD may very well be in a lengthy consolidation period. Volume should be watched carefully for a breakout. There are fundamental reasons brewing for this, as well. However, as ever, any move will show up in the charts first.

(BTW, BMD is a limestone aggregate company, and a not very succesful one at that. It's an indirect oil sands play, not an oil sands company itself. I chart this stock every day and have multiple news alerts set for Birch Mountain. Boy, has it been a dog. But as they say, every dog has it's day....)

n2s- LOL...

the blue is almost the right pill...when on your deathbed (a misnomer if ever there was one, IMO, as i believe we have eternity to explore every nuance of the universe->but that's another topic), all the inconsequential interactions will blend into background noise and you will be focusing on what really matters/mattered, right...those who read my posts know i sleep early (west coast time), usually before my six year old-> and awaken an hour later to his kiss on my cheek and 'i love you, daddy' before he heads off to bed..that was/is what mattered/matters in 10,000 B.C., during the dark ages, the romantic period, the second world war, the sixties, today and tomorrow...embrace what matters and let the rest go...

Lesia

I agree with everything you say. You and I and others like us [thinking wise] would work together or at least coexist together during difficult times. But it is the so called other people who only think of their need to please themselves that causes me concerns. They are the ones who could make society in this country a living hell.

mikenyc,

your summary of your daily rituals read like my autobiography,

good to know im not the only one who has this overwhelming feeling of wanting to read everything i can while holding down a job where im forever on the lookout a manager doest see the charts up on my screens.

the last 3 months have been for me the winter of my discontent for trading with nothing seemingly going right accept a new low carb diet regime. ha!!

Finding winners. (I say all of this with the caveat that I've no special investing prowess).

I believe that the real stories are not the ones that you hear in the media. Once you hear the story, then the stock is being sold to you. Sure, you can make some good money from the excitement, but...at some point in time that might end badly when everyone else is piled in.

Some of you may remember that I had an uber-nerd project at the beginning of the year. I loaded every frickin stock symbol by category into Stockcharts (though they have a way to do that now a little more easily). I even created a spreadsheet that had every ticker in the Dow Jones universe listed by sector. (Hmmm...I see I no longer have that on my website...I'll fix that)

I have found that carefully going through charts (within a sector) and watching the price and volume activity one can find stealth performers. I call stocks stealth performers ones that are moving up strongly--and nobody is talking about them. They are the quiet but relentless mover on uppers--somebody's building a position and they are being very quiet about it.

When I see stocks like this, I like to see who the institutional holders are and whether that number is increasing or decreasing. While I detest the dumb money smart money monikers (BSC was smart money, right?), it is the institutional holders that move a stock. So if they are buying methodically, I'd like to be able to see that.