Bill: I think this can be summed up in one phrase: For better or worse, in democracies such as ours, we, as voters, have the right to choose the levels of corruption, incompetence and waste that we prefer.

ALOHA !!

Bill ... as I have said before I believe America does not need a FED. Essentially the US Treasury can do the same functions as a FED and by Constitution was suppose to be the only monetary authority representing "We The People".

Why do we need a corrupt cartel of elite private bankers controlling economic data and money functions? It naturally lends itself to abuse and conflict of interest that leads to manipulations and inside trading.

Its a 95 year fiat monetary experiment that has failed miserably. If anyone still believes it will succeed you have to explain why I have to pay more than $1,800USD (1910 Sears catalog price)for a new home.

My definition of US monetary crazy: Keep making the same mistakes for 95 years and expect different results.

How long and how low does the purchasing power of the US Peso have to go before we get rid of the US FED? I guess the US Peso has to go to ZERO, because its practically there!

I look at the FED this way. The USA has hired these "expert" bankers to preserve the value of our money by acting in a fiscally responsible manner. The original idea and charter of the US FED was to mimmick a gold standard and prevent market collapse by assuming a mantle of political independence. In actuality the opposite has happened! Based on their performance in 1929 the FED should have been fired then! Based on FDRs confiscation of all American's gold the Democratic party should have been tried for Treason.

I view these things with a simplistic "farmer" type of logic. To survive in the agriculture industry you have to be adaptive and innovative, because there is no way to control Mother Nature and the weather. Its constant risk assessment. Do I plant UH 800s or do I plant more UH 232 and how do I assess what the flower market will want this coming year. My approach has been to diversify risk on a farming level by actually moving into product complimentary Hawaiian gourmet food products and maintain a historical sales based high demand inventory of plants. I have to chose my plants based on a real market place based on real market data, because if I don't I am out of business and I guarantee you I will get ZERO bailouts and my US Senator will not care one iota what happens to me and my family. What's the FED's decisions based on?

The FED is in a similar operation of risk assessment and when they allowed the derivatives markets to go unregulated they sealed the fate of American markets and their credability. I have posted here numerous times that Alan Greenspan answered "NO regulation is warranted!" while testifying in front of the HR Banking Committee. Who was grilling Greenspan on this subject of banking and derivatives regulation? Hummmmm ... Ron Paul!! The only elected representative that ever dared to question Greenspan's activities.

It flies against all that is even remotely patriotic and "logical" to allow this entity called the FED to exist. These people are crooks and they are corrupt to the core. The blueprint for their corruption was set many hundreds of years ago by the Rothschild Banking Empire.

The FED has failed to uphold their charter. It is that simple! The FED and their charter needs to be eliminated not renewed.

ALOHA !!

Oh ... have a grand MEMORIAL DAY!

I will take some time to consider what this holiday is about and honor those who are now carrying out the orders of our "elected" officials stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Republic is still viable, although on life support, still viable. Lets pray that Americans will wake up in time to preserve the future viability for our kids.

Latest from Colin Twiggs:

Dow
Continuation of the primary advance, signaled by recovery above 13000, is now unlikely. Expect a test of primary support at 11750, especially if a retracement respects the new resistance level at 12750

OilCrude
oil prices broke out above the long term trend channel, signaling an accelerating up-trend (or spike). This is likely to be followed by a sharp drop, the market tends to overreact in both directions, but may be some weeks away — too late to relieve the pressure on equity markets

Re: POO

I think with the price of oil in a price spike above its trend channel, that we should be cautious not to throw in other commodities at the same time. As has been pointed out, Gold is not even near the top of its price channel and can't be placed in the same pricing action.

A noteable move is Silver advancing against Gold this week. Another concern would be either bond yields continue to appreciate overseas as compared to treasuries in the U.S., as this would lend some support to the gold price. Another indicator is the advance of the ¥/$ trade, which gold has tracked. I believe these conditions are the very same that led to the run-up in precious metals prices, but not oil. An advance in the oil price is related to the commodities futures curve, which is not exactly set in stone.

So we may observe some differentiation between overbought oil and money trends. A sure sign would be another collapse in treasuries again, and a widening of credit spreads. We are seeing instead a rise in foreign bond yields and a narrowing of credit spreads temporarily.

I remember reading a book back in the 70's called "None Dare Call It Conspiracy" by Gary Allen. I Googled it and found it online in the form of a PDF. http://tinyurl.com/55jtbj It has some interesting information concerning the Rothschilds, J.P.Morgan and the creation of the Central Bank. It's a short read.

Reading and listening to audio for hours already this weekend, on where we are at.

Real time failure of the fiat money experiment that is gaining momentum to the downside. There is no limit to how low the dollar can go, and therefore no limit to the price of gold, oil, food, and water.

Nasty when a reserve currency fails.

Lots of debate on peak oil. Pickens is a proponent. Oil isn't being purchased at 133/bbl and hoarded, it's being used.

All the bad debt the Fed has will need to be papered over with fresh new money. Trillions. FNM is obviously insolvent. Wave two of the financial meltdown is going to begin in earnest. The dollar will begin it's next plunge that ought to take it into the mid 60's, on it's way to 40.

Think Kaimu is right; MER LEH BAC and the lot will be lined up like tin cans at a shooting gallery. The Fed being the only one who is out of ammo.

Enjoy the weekend.

how many people could leave it all behind and do this?

http://tinyurl.com/58gzub

Hmmmm.....I had a whole other notion of leaving it all behind....I was thinking simplified, downsized, but not quite this far.....
Under a bridge in Oakland somehow doesn't hold all the charm I'm looking for.

When oil rolls over will metals and the markets advance?

Posted by 2nd_ave: "i really believe beijing has an entire committee devoted to moving the market higher by august..."

Have you seen any statements in print by Chinese authorities that they want to keep up the market? I remember the authorities reduced the taxes on traders, but that was a while ago and may not be sufficient to keep up the Chinese market if the US market continues to go down. So if you can send us links to any new statements/initiatives by the Chinese authorities, I would greatly appreciate it, as it might motivate me to close my FXP position and maybe even buy CAF.

DavidV

FranSix, your post at 4:03pm contained a lot of interesting insights, but I didn't understand all of them. You wrote: "A sure sign would be another collapse in treasuries again, and a widening of credit spreads." What would that be a sure sign of? Please help me understand...

Thanks,

David

RE: Collapsing price of oil vs. bond yields.

What opinions are there about the effect of a collapse in the oil price on bond yields? On the one hand, inflation fears will subside and bond yields should fall. On the other hand, the equities will happily rise and bonds will be sold off, which will increase yields. Which one of these effects is more likely to prevail?

2nd_ave: you seem to be favoring long TBT and short oil positions -- did you consider the effect of the falling oil price on TBT or do you think there will be no effect and so TBT trade can be viewed independently?

DavidV

stonecrest: if I understood Bill correctly, he thinks that a drop in the oil price will pull down all commodities. The recent daily price moves definitely support this view, as the metals tend to go down on the days when oil falls, and market tends to rise on those days.

So my own guess about the effect of the falling oil price on TBT is that initially TBT will rise as the market rises, but then it will fall as a realization of a lower inflation sets in. Does anyone disagree with this view?

DavidV

SEC Chairman Chris Cox and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sit at the same table with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and other bankers during televised congressional hearings

Bill They were trying to sell socialization of credit risk

David- i don't think beijing will be telegraphing any moves-> market manipulation requires uncertainty on the part of investors and surprise on the part of administrators...shanghai moving higher is pure speculation on my part, and i don't recommend you make any trading decisions based on that...i've mentioned many times that i continually seek an edge in my trading by imagining what i would do were i on the opposite side of a trade, or in someone else's shoes-> most people are more alike than they are different (psychologically speaking), so i don't think it's that hard to imagine what beijing may want to have happen and how they might go about accomplishing it...as we all know by now, in spite of the human tendency to attribute greater wisdom/decisiveness/maturity to those in power, odds are you would perform just as well (maybe better) in their position...of course, beijing can only do so much-> right now, a market drop in the US appears imminent, and FXP should benefit...when the timing looks right, they have cards they can play to either reverse momentum or nudge things higher...

DUG+SMN/TBT- sure, i've thought along the lines of a) higher rates (to contain inflation)-> higher USD-> falling commodities prices-> one driver for higher stock prices/lower bond prices, or just b) reversion to the mean making all three ETFs a good investment, but i've also noticed that relationships among all of the above can leave commentators wondering (or worse, guessing)...so as you know, i simply closed out of TBT last thursday on (unexpected and inexplicable) strength, and closed out of DUG/SMN on friday on strength...none of us is smarter than the market-> i have no explanation for any of the strength in any of the three ETFs last week, and i was simply happyt to take profits when i had them...so you could say i disagree with your view on TBT for the simple reason that it makes sense, but will probably not make you money in the ST...whereas long-term nvestments benefit from fundamental analysis and logical reasoning, trading often suffers from the same->just my observations...

as to "favoring short oil/short bond positions," that is true-> simply think the profit potential is higher (of course, associated risk is higher also)...you should know by now that daytrading (which btw has never been my preferred trading style, but i use whatever works in the prevailing environment) benefits from volatility and wide swings in price, so in general i would not be looking at safe plays right now...

just posted 2 charts, the first nothing the ratio of oil to gold, its all over the place,

the second is using the "pitchfork" tool on Stockcharts, i never fully understood it but interesting results regardless,

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

See 2nd & 3rd paragraphcs at:

http://tinyurl.com/36szdn

My $0.02 worth...

anyone looking for a new eco-tourist destination in SF, here it is->Cavallo Point, right under the north (Saualito) end of the Golden Gate Bridge:

http://tinyurl.com/4rztaw

"This is a blessed place," Freed says. "Where else in the world can you gaze on the grandeur of such a bridge, be so close to the world's fourth largest financial center - San Francisco - and still be surrounded by 80,000 acres of pristine, undeveloped land? As a city, we have to be very proud that we pulled that off."

2nd Thx for the articles.

Always enjoyed the view from Sausalito more than the view under a bridge in East Oakland!

My favorite quote from The Futures Game, Richard Teweles & Frank Jones, McGraw-Hill 1997

"If the trader who uses contrary opinion can find a situation in which there is a near-unanimous opinion supported by weak reasons, he or she has, at least in theory, found a trade with high potential and low risk".

Well, if you believe oil is high, how to play it? (And I don't see it as low-risk, at least not short-term). Long DUG, short USO - other similar situations, ok. But how does one find the correct technical entry point? Does anyone fear/not fear the US summer driving season? Does it matter anymore? Any good research sites for technical analysis? I want to learn more about 50- and 200- day MAs, the RSI model, stochastics, Elliott wave, et al.

On the other hand, does anyone toss all technical stuff to the wind (like me) and just trade on instincts?

I can't find Bill Cara's book out there (I know you've all probably discussed this before); I am speaking of Notes From the Trader Wizard.

We're having a nice relaxing weekend here in Germany with no positions open over this 3-day holiday, hope that you are all enjoying the same.

Re: Gary Dorsh

Gary has the best perspective on money creation, that stock markets and prices go up when money supply is expanded.

Should the dollar strengthen at any point in time, this would be a death knell for inflation since the money supply is being absorbed and the actual physical cash on hand is in very short supply. But I don't think its necessary at any point in time for the dollar to strengthen, because in a world of floating currency, the dollar has been supplanted by rising foreign currency values.

I believe that the underlying condition for money in short supply already exists, and the reliance on credit to paper over the shortfall is as desperate as ever. Eventually the credit collapses entirely, and the extreme short supply of hard currency becomes readily apparent.

But the perception out there is that commodities should go down while markets go up. And that if the dollar strengthens, this is a healthy sign of advancement. How wrong can people be? Does anyone actually believe this stuff?

goldbug58 - I am reminded of a bookkeeper I once employed. She knew nothing and cared less about determining odds, or counts, or anything technical about gambling, but she loved to go to Las Vegas for the slots. She would literally walk up to a slot machine that someone else had just left with empty pockets, put her money in, and win more times than not. She was lucky -- genuinely.

You remind me of her. If you are lucky, and you don't need TA - just insticts -- and it works for you more times than not, then go for it.

For me, and many others, I have studied and used TA for about 30 years now, and would not trade without constant TA use. Unlike you, my instincts work against me and I lose more times than I win. The "House" at Las Vegas loves people like me.

But if you are serious about wanting to learn about TA. StockCharts offers the basics for free and their "school" is located here:
http://tinyurl.com/2vrepd

Good luck!

Re: Collapse in Treasury Yields

A collapse in treasury yields indicates a widening of credit spreads. A widening of credit spreads determines the outcome of credit markets and signals a collapse. This would have knock on effects to the markets.

But Treasury yields have been stable in the last few weeks. The reverse corollary to stable credit yields domestically has been the increase in bond yields in the foreign currencies. But eventually, there will be another run on treasuries, and that situation will change again.

So we are seeing bond routs in Yen and Euros, that is increasing yields as bonds sell off, as an effect of inflation. This is no different than seeing a collapse of domestic bond yields. This is a contributing factor to commodity prices along with the collapse of the dollar.

Its only a matter of time before this imbalance is unsustainable, and that domestic yields will collapse and perhaps with it, the whole inflationary scenario.

2nd ave:

Re: yesterday's "How many people could leave it all behind and do this?"

The Preacherman's motivation, actions and goals are highly admirable. We all should hear more stories like this and share them. Yet, Mr. Pannizzo seems to be living a very conflicted life. Obviously there's more to the story here, but the article infers that he has more or less abandoned his son.
He makes a few bucks and gives it a way every day. How is he a father figure for a son he is completely responsible for? I do not know.

Casey Kochmer raised the point the other day about conflict in our lives. Guess that is what makes us human.

"Governments don't repay outsized debts. They either default, declare a moratorium, or repudiate them."
Adam Smith

A vast amount of the outsized mortgage debt will never be repaid. Neither the Federal Government or any of its agencies will ever purchase these mortgages, hold them and back them with new treasury isssues. Instead they have Fannie and Freddie (the 2 Fs) which can be expanded like baloons because they are rumored to have the backing of the US Government(HaHa). But in fact neither is an agency of the US Government and if Congress is forced to choose between screwing the bondholders and stockholders of the the 2 Fs or raising taxes on the rich (the rest of the US population is already overtaxed and angry), my bet is that the lobbyists for the rich can convince Congress that the public's expectation that the Govt will back the 2 Fs is just and unfounded rumor. Of course this will not be done until after new 2Fs debt has been sold to the public (by Wall Street) as being as better than treasuries because of Federal Government backing and higher interest rates.

kp84- i think you caught the disturbing point in the article-> taking his religious calling to the point of driving his wife and son away-> there are elements of guilt, denial, self-denial, and pain (with a sadomasochistic edge even)...this guy's story is far from over...

instinct versus TA-

think we all agree trading is an art, and not a science...o/w, designing competing algorithms would do it, and black boxes would rule the game...

it was shark who pointed out "it's not instinct versus TA, but instinct plus TA," which is the ultimate goal-> most great painters/writers/musicians/mathematicians/and probably traders mastered their respective conventional skills before a) allowing instinct to take over [instinct is of little use without the tools/knowledge/practice necessary to act on them], or b) going on to extend the boundaries
and knowledge bases of their professions...

a few arts lend themselves to alternative learning approaches...math and music have much in common (intervals, pitch, harmony, progressions, patterns), and at the highest levels, mathematicians and musicians like to bend the rules, challenge convention, and 'play' on instinct, often discovering new 'rules' in the process...yet i would wager you won't find many self-taught mathematicians...

individuals also vary in the way their brains process information-> one trader may be lost without TA, whereas another might find if gets in the way...charts, of course, are just representations of the data out there...the interpretation of that data is what determines a successful trade, and some people can be good at interpreting that data without charts...

to each his own...find the combination that works best for you-> as long as your portfolio value goes up, and you're having fun, then i think it's working for you...

am i gonna be the guy to tell the next jimi hendrix or issac hayes to go back to music school and learn to read music? hell no, i'm going to tell them to keep playin'!

Excellent points on the Preacherman.

I'm reminded of the old saying, "charity begins at home".

I'm dealing with a similar circumstance in my family. My mom, after several automobile wrecks, is suffering from early onset dimensia.
Much emotion, guilt, anger amongst my siblings who are struggling with her life choices..... rescuing dogs and cats to the point of ignoring her own life and her family. Now it comes time to help her and there is still residual feelings by some about how they feel about it all. You all know me and my responses.....who do you think this responsibility falls to? LOL!

And one of the biggest issues? Who will rescue Mom's cats....

I wonder, who will rescue Preacherman's son and wife? When he is at his end, will the homeless be there for him or will he BE one of them?

"Good Night Dick".

Dick Martin, who rode 'Laugh-in' to fame, dies at 86.

The show was a collage of one-liners, non sequiturs, sight gags and double entendres the likes of which prime time had rarely seen, and it proved that viewers were eager for more than sleepily paced plots and polite song-and-dance. "Laugh-In" quickly vaulted to the top of the television ratings, and it spawned an array of catchphrases: "Sock it to me," "Here come da judge" and Martin's signature line, "You bet your sweet bippy."

"People are basically irreverent," Martin said in 1968, explaining the appeal of the show. "They want to see sacred cows kicked over. You can't have Harry Belafonte on your show and not have him sing a song, but we did; we had him climbing out of a bathtub, just because it looked irreverent and silly. If a show hires Robert Goulet, pays him $7,500 or $10,000, they're going to want three songs out of him; we hire Robert Goulet, pay him $210 and drop him through a trap door."

“instinct versus TA- think we all agree trading is an art, and not a science...o/w, designing competing algorithms would do it, and black boxes would rule the game...”

Whoops, now we have a topic for discussion. With all due respect for your viewpoint -- it works for you, I don’t think we “all agree trading is an art, and not a science...” There are many different viewpoints on the subject, but perhaps the most respected viewpoint is that “trading” is a *business*, not an art nor a science. The focus of best business practice is making a profit, not true for either art or science.

Because some people trade for the fun of it, supposedly, I would even go so far as to say that because of the strategies, psychology, and memory that is often involved in successful trading, the game of Chess, Bridge, or Poker might come close, but not art nor science.

TA, itself, is a bag of tools, no more, no less. With every year, as one trades and learns, the tool bag grows, but traders also use memory (which is aided by charts of historical prices), psychology (charts can show by volume changes the panic or greed that comes at various price levels), and strategies (the fact that RSI values can designate a “zone” for buying/selling is not a scientific absolute but is rather just a chart representation of a strategy that many traders have chosen to follow).

One last item. TA is applicable to all trade items for which there is data, at any time. Instinct, art, and music just are not comparable.

Just for an example, Bill Cara, the resident expert of this site, said a long time ago that one might want to watch the chart of the Yen as an indicator of what is happening to the SPX. BUT, before you look, check your instincts and write down whether you would buy the YEN here. Be honest now, just make a choice that is based on your instincts. (Note: I am not recommending any trade of any kind on the Yen nor on the SPX).

Chart is here:
http://tinyurl.com/5qvywp

Now what clue for a trade would simple analysis of observed directions and trends of the Yen and Spx give?

Save music for the background while trading, imo.

KP84:

I way I teach Taoism, the journey is the meaning for living , not the destination. But in that journey, the edges, the problems, the moments we work against give us the perspective and chance to learn how to make the journey a good one.

So yes you are right, conflict is part of our nature, the trick is finding the balance (in kindness) of how to embrace that nature.

Religion is a tool only to aid in that journey. Too many people forget, or don't realize the practices: like religion, are just that: practices to aid in the journey and not a substitution for actually living life well.

Helping people sort that out is actually the biggest part of my work.

2nd_ave:
who will rescue Preacherman's son and wife?

IN the end they will, we all have the ability (at times I work with people with substance abuse problems and other extreme issues and I know we all have a seed of hope in our being) to rescue ourselves, it's just sometimes we need a helping hand. And that helping hand cannot always be the most obvious choice. A stranger can often times help others much easier than someone who is close to them for this reason. Life is bizarre, but it is what it is.

Opps I meant Craig not 2nd_ave: on who will save comment

2nd_ave: excellent well thought out posts on nature of how to embrace life, and the nature nature of merging instinct with practice and tools!

Craig: I am still pondering one of your comments on my question yesterday :)

spot- memory, psychology and strategies-> used quite often in music also...the foundation for improvisation/composition is having memorized progessions/substitutions/intervals/patterns to the point where one can hear them and respond automatically, then take off from there...the combination of memory/psychology actually plays a distinct role in playing off an audience-> playing against their expectations/mood changes, hearing them laugh as you intentionally veer off, are all part of the ongoing nature of the performance arts ...

i have many thoughts on this topic, and i'm glad you brought it up for discussion...look forward to collecting my thoughts, furthering the discussion, changing my mind, and/or exploring other aspects of the interplay between the two approaches...

survivalism has hit main stream yet again

http://tinyurl.com/5q8lo4

which means this is not the way of the future. This represents a snapshot of now.

When-ever media begins playing with the main idea I feel it is being shown an image of what we are now, not what will be.

I see a culture beginning to wake to realities and shift towards new answers. Thats a good thing.

2nd_ave - I recognize that you may have more to say that has yet been unsaid, but I noted in your above response:
1. There was no defense for the use of "Instinct" in trading. Was it because that use is hard to prove as defendable?
2. You mentioned the technical tools of music as having a "distict role"; thus, are you not actually defending the "distict role" of TA to trading?
3. What did your instincts say about the Yen? - Just curious? 8<)

That word "distict" is supposed to be "distinct" in my last posting. Sorry.

spot

Re: Preacherman

Casey, that's it - Balance. Preacherman doesn't have that. It's his total immersion into his new existence, almost Jesus-like, that is disturbing.
Can't he balance his life with this abundant compassion while still being a dad, a husband and a son to bewildered parents?
Maybe that is a part of his journey, the discovery. It's very sad to see this happen at the expense of his son's youth.

I was looking for the past posting that had all of those great quotations. It also had a link to a video on the Federal Reserve. Could someone here post the link to this past post by Bill?

Kp84: on balance: we are missing perspective: the article gives a very narrow slice of view.

typically when someone spins off to such an extreme It's in response to some larger more powerful aspect in their life driving them. The extreme actions still represents their push to find a balance.

No "right" answers exist in these situations, just what we can do to to fit in and help out in the end within this greater puzzle.

what bothers me most is when people push their answers and form of balance onto others, in an attempt to find their own balance: in effect that's the big problem of most preaching.

oh well "so it goes" as Kurt used to say.

How many would leave it all behind and do this?
http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/
I read the book, fits in very well with my plans. Cheers

"No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country."
George S. Patton

Happy Memorial Day.

quick way to check short interest before going long or short a stock: http://shortsqueeze.com

spot- depending on the individual, one's instincts may be as good/better than reading charts...i like to gauge sentiment-> often, sentiment can be 'read' before action is taken on that sentiment, so there is the potential to 'foresee' where things are going and stake your trade on that (todd harrison recently reposted gretzky's famous 'skate to where the puck is going, not to where it is now')-> the whole point for all of us is to 'see' where things are headed, and does it matter whether you use charts or instinct? i don't know...simply saying that my instincts will often 'signal' a change in market direction before i am able to explain it...it may be that technical indicators will also 'signal' you the exact same thing either at the same time or even earlier-> if that's true, then all the more motivation for me to take the time to study TA...

i don't follow the yen, so i have no 'feel' for the chart you posted...

one question i have about TA would be if everyone is looking at the same indicators and making the same (conventional) decisions based on them, where exactly is your edge in using them? i would almost conjecture that following the indicators and doing the exact opposite of what they tell you might yield better results, at least in the short-term?

btw, in the long-term, i believe fundamental analysis and certain indicators (eg, RSI) will always trump psychology...when the market environment returns to one where long-term investing works, i plan to give up the short-term trading...i have been daytrading for a year now, but out of necessity, not preference...

Having just returned from memorial of a wonderful man, I feel a little philosophical... allow me to chime in science-art-buusiness dicussion weith my take on it.

Trading is life. Just as in life, there are elements of everything. Some science, some art, some business. some whatever-you-come-up-with and some whatever-it-is-for-you. Depending on our personality, background, training and preferences, some parts have more weight for some of us and less for others. Some approach it as a pure science, and make it work for them; others feel it's a form of art for them, and make it work as such; yet others view it as a pure business and structure their approach in according way. Then there are some who see trading as a mix, with different weight assigned to different aspects. And finalle, there are those who haven't found their happy ground yet and are in a search for answers. For those, it could be helpful to try and view trading and markets as broader phenomena than just science or art or business - their quest is likely to become more fruitful when they allow wider interpretations and look for what's "theirs" in more angles. Right approach to trading is easy to recognize: you found it when you feel it enriches your life, not makes you miserable, tense and depressed.

Me, I like this quote: Art is science made clear. (Wilson Mizner). To me trading starts with some science (not rocket science, mind you), becomes more complete and satisfactory when morphs into art (not that I view myself as Michelangelo, far from it) and all this occures within a framework of business. Throw a bit of healthy self-irony on top, and you have a recipe for wholesome experience in the markets. If at this point you comment: "Why just markets, sounds like it would work in pretty much any aspect of life" - you got it, that's exactly what I meant from the very beginning.

DavidV - on China

I am not an expert of China and it's monetary policy. But, this is what I know - The Chinese government can make a change in policy almost without rancor or hesitation. (Just look at their recent 20-yr history). Their interventions often came in a surprise and work against the mainstream public/investors. Here is a piece of news of worthy. Judge for yourself -

http://tinyurl.com/5a85uu

"A further 20%?" How about a further 50% short term and 99% long term. May you be correct!

Glad the denial of service has subsided for now anyway.

IMHO, there is no defense. You can short silver ad infinitum and you can block BC blog.

Ultimately, they will both unwind, but in the interim, it's a PIA.

May we have the peace needed to conduct a civil discussion of volatile markets!! I hope some of my credibility has been restored. This is not easy for all.

Wow.. there's an echo in here now that the culprits removed the DOS. It's not me...

I do know however, having had a local HD wiped, through my bullet proof FWs, that there is no safe haven on the web. Fortunately, I do not trade in secret. I have built my model so as to walk up to any terminal in the world at any time, ... log into 6 to 8 web sites, and be able to do everything I desire.

So far, so good. IMHO, "your" denial of the financial collapse will never trump my study of the facts and trading strategy. Good days and bad days, but in the long haul, I will win.

The momentum has clearly shifted to acknowledge peak oil and the destruction of the US Dollar through the Fed policies. That's about all you need to know about the markets going forward. None of them will reverse in the short term.

I've got a dozen short term plays mapped for Tue already.

We're goin' down folks, after the last-gasp rally.

May the farce be with you!

Bill,

Yes, the Existing Home Sales data shows a slightly higher number than the forecast consensus and, yes, the realtors and media are putting lipstick on this pig by suggesting that things aren't as bad as expected and the turn is at hand. But there is more in the equation that paints the picture. The equation is # of sales X avg price. What we are not being told is the falling price on homes sold. This is intentional, lest the market accelerate from a downward spiral into a death-dive market collapse.
This week Canadian banks will report earnings along with more write-downs. More bad news due to the mortgage fiasco will likely put a very dark cloud on markets everywhere because Canadian banks are considered top-shelf financial securities and the market is about to re-price them lower ( again ). Trading in Japan tonight ( tomorrow ) may be a tell - Nikkei is seriously down as I type.

My father's side of family "were" full time RE investors in OC. They are getting too old and have bailed, mostly, on their own plus some of my advice. Out late from Dana Pointe, where a 2200 ft**2 villa went for $975. I just returned from a visit and am happy to report all is sold.
Ohhh, the bag holders...! Maybe $575 if lucky. hehe.

The disturbing part is he sent the proceeds to a "conservative broker", who promptly bet on the Rut 2000. I'm tryin' to save them, but denial of a paradigm change runs deep. I just kicked there arse with puts in my acct.

Hopefully they will at least use the Merk Funds
as an oasis. Gave them the full data.

It's a crying shame what is perpertrated on the clueless American public by the Fed. Non-savvy investors are really toast, as well as a bunch who think they know.

I've got a friend with a million in t-bills. I've tried...

Here in TX people still believe in RE. OK, so you are right. +10% in RE and - 50% in the USD doesn't fly for me.

Save your selves, as you deem appropriate!!!

I'm taking Memorial day off. Those of you who despise me may rejoice. Those who just wonder.. WTF, likewise.

I now know better than to behave as I was taught.
Take no BS from noone.
Grunted and smiled and gladhanded enough to hit my lifetime limit.

I'm here to make money. Big money. I share my ideas, and call a spade a spade. Don't expect anything less.

If anyone's still awake you may want to look at Dennis Gartman on trading:
http://tinyurl.com/4pffef
An easy read, basically about trend following. Personally I refer to try and find trend reversals. Whenever I follow the trend I seem to be the last person "in" that triggers someone else's algorithm (probably 2nd's instincts) that says "trend overbought" time to reverse, that action then triggering someone else's stochastics reversal which kicks another's RSI values down and all leaves me hoping that the market will come back to me, which of course it doesn't. Its as if my trade was the chaos butterfly's flapping wings.

Instinct - isn't that the integration of accumulated experience? Guess I'm not too good at the integration thing. So I rely a lot on TA. Probably too much left brain and not enough right brain. Or maybe they're both there but don't talk to each other :>(

Actually instinct is inherent....already in existence at birth. Instinct reveals itself without any previous experience although there is certainly a range of expression. Not a particularly accurate word for our purposes. Perhaps to describe trader's fear, but it is accumulated experience (learning) that allows us to overcome instinctive reactions like fear or to recognize them to our advantage.

The South Africa charts look ready to roll over - the rand, the etf, the DJ SA index.

Spain, also. 4 month uptrend (on consistent and clearly weakening volume) broken Friday.

Jock, thank's for posting the link to the short interest site.

Do you (or anyone else) know of any sites where one can see a chart of short interest over time? This would be a very useful info to have...

DavidV