Here's a discussion on the mainstream press BNN.ca related to bond yields:

UBS fixed income strategist William O'Donnell

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip51963

Another thing caught my attention yesterday from the Globe discussion who are the major oil producers in the world and the perceptions around that:

The Myth About Big Oil

Globe

http://tinyurl.com/5l35zk

http://tinyurl.com/498w2h

Saturday Morning Coffee, offered free (haha) to the Cara Community. I hope you like it without sugar.

Best,

Ron

For those die-hard Crystallex (KRY) fans out there....at the current share price...this could be the "deal of the century" before the "trade of a generation"!

Chavez to Decide This Week on Crystallex, Gold Reserve Permits

By Steven Bodzin
May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crystallex International Corp. and Gold Reserve Inc. may get mining permits from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, less than two weeks after their stocks plunged on announcements operations would be blocked on environmental grounds.
``The decision will be made in the coming week,'' Environment Minister Yubiri Ortega said late yesterday in an interview at the presidential palace.
Crystallex plummeted 64 percent to 60 cents in trading on the American Stock Exchange since April 29, the day before it said Ortega's ministry would deny an environmental permit for its planned Las Cristinas mine. Gold Reserve said on the same day its permit for an existing mine would be revoked. The company's stock, traded in Toronto, has fallen 52 percent to C$1.75.
``There is irreversible environmental destruction, irreversible,'' Ortega said about the mining operations. ``If there is some type of remediation, and I don't know what in the world that could be, they may still get their permits.''
Ortega said Chavez will decide whether to grant permits after consulting with her and Minister of Basic Industries and Mining Rodolfo Sanz.
Crystallex Vice President Richard Marshall and Gold Reserve President A. Douglas Belanger didn't respond to calls for comment placed outside of business hours.
To contact the reporter on this story: Steven Bodzin in Caracas at sbodzin@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 10, 2008 02:25 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...

Crystallex Says Only Chavez Can Permit New Gold Mine (Update2)

By Stewart Bailey
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crystallex International Corp., the Canadian miner awaiting approval to develop Venezuela's biggest gold mine, said only President Hugo Chavez can award the permits needed to proceed with Las Cristinas.
The process has stalled in the office of Environment Minister Yubiri Ortega, who opposes international companies extracting Venezuela's resources, Crystallex Chief Executive Officer Gordon Thompson said yesterday. The company hopes that Rodolfo Sanz, the new minister of basic industries and mining, will intervene on Crystallex's behalf, Thompson said.
Sanz ``has to satisfy himself that there is no political liability,'' Thompson said in an interview in Toronto, where his company is based. ``Our view is that he'll walk into Chavez's office and say, `Issue it.'''
Ortega's representatives didn't respond to calls to her communications office seeking comment.
Crystallex rose 1 cent to C$2 at 4:15 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. The shares have declined 13 percent this year.
Crystallex has sold shares to fund operating costs during its four-year wait for permits for Las Cristinas. Delays have persisted even after Vice Minister of Mines Ivan Hernandez pledged in May to boost mining's economic role to help reduce the South American nation's reliance on crude-oil revenue.
Ortega's ministry approved Crystallex's final environmental-impact assessment in June and requested taxes and bonds to secure a permit, the company said in October. While the money has been paid and security lodged, the permit hasn't been issued, Thompson said.
Visit to Mine
The company isn't likely to get a meeting with Chavez to plead its case and will have to rely on Sanz to press for permission to go ahead with the mine, Thompson said. The minister requested a visit to Las Cristinas during a meeting with Crystallex's management three weeks ago, Thompson said.
``He's a tough, no-nonsense businessman who will make things happen one way or another,'' Thompson said. ``He's not the man who will sit on the file.''
Crystallex said it expects Las Cristinas to yield an average 233,000 ounces of gold a year at a cost of $346 an ounce during a life of about 64 years.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stewart Bailey in New York at sbailey7@bloomberg.net.

For the left wingers [i.e.Craig] of the group.

You pick who you want to be [Obama or Clinton].
Then start pounding away.
The meters in the corners tells how effective the punches are.

http://www.nypost.com/spsections/hill_vs_obama/

Craig

Meant that in a nice way!

Thanks Bill…

The most obvious play to exploit last week was one we warned about in here earlier in the week - the energy down/transports up pattern to reverse, and it played out magnificently…our FREE breadth based sector performance reports shows this beautifully

Clearly the broadest buying was in energy and metals & mining … the broadest selling, a much more densely populated portion of the free report (showing the consolidation/test of supports last week) we see homebuilders, retail, financials, utilities, transports, software, real estate and on and on…

We also were calling for a test of supports last week in the indexes and that’s what we got, looking ahead to next week we see a resumption of the uptrend as most likely with the point of reckoning being the sma200 for most indexes … we need to blast thru them next week or it will be more quibbling and waffling, aka consolidation lol

Good Trading
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

No worries Zeto! Although I shun labels....LOL!

3-month charts posted for GLD, GDX and XGD

http://jglobal.blogspot.com

ALOHA !!

Hawaiian currency ... the "DALA" !!

Link: http://www.hawaiidala.com/

We're on our way to being the "MONACO OF THE PACIFIC" ... A Monarchy tax haven with our own PM backed currency.

Zeto -
great game - thanks
Hillary was KO'd 3 times in a row "night night"

Bill
This week I have posted on the false sense of security that rising economic indicators provide to Investors. This tends to happen just before or during nasty economic recessions.

Lehman Brothers Raises Layoff Axe, Invents New Way To Say "You're Fired"
Henry Blodget | May 9, 2008 3:46 PM

Lehman Brothers (LEH) layoffs are expected next week. Some soon-to-be-whacked employees have apparently found out their unfortunate fates in advance. A reader submits:

A friend of mine...has heard of their likely layoff (rumors are many coming next week), not thru a direct communication from a superior, but by receiving a notice re COBRA benefits and monthly costs. They expect the official word of layoffs is coming next week. Sad way to learn about your future.

Definitely. Eliminates the need for those awkward termination speeches, though.

Now that calls for $200 oil start appearing, it seems likely that oil will start correcting very soon, maybe even this week. More about this is said on the US Global Investors homepage: http://www.usfunds.com/docs/alert/alert_main.asp

Based on my past experience, a correction in oil (which may last only a month or two) will bring down the metal prices and will cause a rally in the general stock market, especially in financials.

Can anyone else comment on the likelihood of a near-term oil correction and its effects?

DavidV

Re: POO

I think if there is a temporary correction in oil, and it doesn't take bullion prices with it, we'll see a good rally.

Though after no correction in oil this week, I presume that oil, gold, euro, ¥, whatnot all peak out simultaneously.

Re: Again, POO

"For our part, we’ve been predicting that the price of oil will reach a potentially important high near $131 (basis the June futures contract. The Amernick Letter expects a top at 129.66 followed by a correction to 105.50.) However, if the shooting match in Lebanon continues to escalate, we would not be surprised to see quotes for oil and gold climb above these targets. Please note that our minimum projection for the latter – again, basis the June contract – is 902.50."

http://rickackerman.com/commentary/2008/Do_Oil_GoldbrSniff_a_War.html

ALOHA !!

Whose been predicting oil at $200USD? Who is on TV saying in a MAD MONEY way ... BUY GOLD?

I have been waiting for a direct sign from GOLDMAN SACHS for awhile and this is the first VISIBLE sign I have seen on the TOCOM. The May 8 session Goldman Sachs INCREASED their short position by 1,117 contracts to bring their net short position to 10,911 contracts. That's a lot of short contracts! I can't wait to see what the May 9th session says ...

1117 contracts on oil or gold?

Kaimu, can you please post a link to the place where you check the short position of GS in oil and gold? Thanks!

DavidV

David,

Here's the link.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html

Look to the right under market data to get oil.

ALOHA !!

David ... Yukes posted the link, but I should explain that the GOLDMAN net short is not a LOT of contracts say compared to the STDJ net short of some 36,000, but 1,117 is a lot for a single day, especially when you look at what GOLDMAN has been doing over the past couple months or so. GOLDMAN has had a net short of over 50,000 in 2007, so they have drastically reduced their short position since the highs, but still 1,117 is a big spike up all of a sudden after months of listless sideways action. In my opinion it is the first reportable event in a long time. I only watch this because I know GOLDMAN is a definite "insider". My first bit of suspicion was their public notice predicting oil at $200USD! Then Cramer(ex-GOLDMAN exec)yelling BUY GOLD all of a sudden! Would GOLDMAN add this many shorts if this was truly the bottom of the gold correction? Maybe May 9 will tell us more. I would not act on just one "reportable" spike! It's just one of a few red flags, like the $200 oil call and Cramer hyping GOLD!

ALOHA !!

Bill ... I agree the Bahamas photos look GREAT, but who are Bob and Jay you are thanking for photos? Are they Caraistas or just locals you know there in the islands?

Now that Marsh Harbour airport photo is not something you want tourists to know about unless you are trying to scare them away! HA!!

Where did they film that 1980s Robin Williams movie CLUB PARADISE? Was that the Bahamas or Jamaica? Anybody ever see that movie? I think it may be one of Robin Willians least known films! What a strange cast ... Robin, Twiggy and Peter O'Toole and some Second City/Saturday Night Live crew of actors you rarely hear of any more! Hummmmmm ...

kaimu, you mean you can't wait to see what the May 12 session says instead of May 9?

Off topic: Mothers' Day Greetings

http://tinyurl.com/6nw7hj

Re: ¥

Good write up at Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHlWa48caFMw&refer=home

Yen appreciation against the dollar and Euro declines against the Yen may spell for a rally in gold prices. Still waiting on silver lease rates to turn positive, there could be a limited stockpile with which to refine silver into sterling.

Ron,

Thank you for the "Mothers' Day Greetings" on your web page. I see you and I have a common thread that joins us [see my comment].

It's so nice to see Bill HAPPY for a change. For the last few weeks, the impression I had was that he was under a lot of stress. Now in Paradise, all the bad stuff is gone.

Great...! Enjoy Paradise Bill

Anyone have the latest post from Colin Twiggs?

The latest one I can find is April 19th.

Thanks.

Ron

I like Linda Raschke thanks for listing her name in your post today.

Caraistas: Her article is worth the read.

The Mental Aspect of Trading
by Linda Bradford Raschke

http://tinyurl.com/37axqo

ALOHA !!

Look what is the number one best selling book in CHINA? It's all about the same stuff that I have posted here before regarding elite banker manipulation of the markets and fiat money.

CURRENCY WARS by Huobi Zhansheng

Of course Bill's Theme about capital markets and social equity is reflected in this book called "CURRENCY WARS", saying that there are no free markets. Seems the 200mil new Chinese middle class are more tuned into "monetary issues" than the the American Idol shrinking middle class.

This will all sound very familiar to Caraistas but not to the Joe SixPack in Everytown, America! Many TOUT TV analysts here in the USA, like KUDLOW, who prefer dumbed-down taxpayers and investors, would argue that this book is exactly what the Communist Chinese government would promote so as to ruin the stellar reputation of the US and European free markets! More PINKO COMMIE PROPAGANDA says Rush Limbaugh ...

Still ... GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY!

In essence what I mean by that phrase "Government is only as honest as its money" is as the purchasing power of a US PESO decreases, dishonesty and manipulation of markets increases exponentially.

READ ON:
Fanning the Flames of Currency Wars

Currency Wars (Huobi Zhanzheng), a book written by a Chinese native who lived in the United States and worked on Wall Street, has become a runaway bestseller in China in the past nine months [2]. The book caused a sensation of interests and heated discussions in Chinese cyber space and other multiple forays on Western intentions behind its demand that China quickly appreciate the value of its currency. Song Hongbing, the book’s author, draws from a wide range of literature in English and argues that the modern history of international finance is primarily a process of how a very small number of powerful families in the West have established their control over governments and international institutions.

According to Song, there is no such thing as a free market when it comes to global finance and financial institutions. From the Rothschild family at the time of the Napoleonic Wars to the rise of J. P. Morgan, the Rockefellers and other prominent U.S. financial powerhouses, Song sees all the modern wars, depressions and men-made disasters having a linkage to the manipulation of a handful of Western private bankers. The Great Depression of the 1930s, the oil crises of the 1970s, and the fall of the Soviet Union were all apparently masterminded by the small group of Western bankers and financiers. The book’s significance and its number one spot in China today is due to the author’s argument that after Japan was brought to its knees by the forced appreciation of the yen, after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 that shattered the other Asian “miracle economies,” the American and European financial oligarchs are now turning their attention to China—and the form of the real Western subversion of the Chinese economy would come in the form of “currency wars.”

As the book’s preface makes very clear, the West has so far been unable to stop the rise of China but there is clear and present danger ahead. The analogy here is that China is like a huge economic development “aircraft carrier,” which can take on all challenges coming from every direction. However, just as the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has in recent years built up a small but formidable submarine force that can tail and challenge the larger U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups, China’s "economic carrier" is also vulnerable to financial sub-attacks that are launched by the powerful Western financial institutions. The book warns that China must do everything possible to prepare for and defend against a coming currency war waged and led by the U.S. and other Western countries’ financial tycoons.(more)

Link: http://tinyurl.com/5ztadt

I have always used this website "Jamestown Foundation" for research on some foriegn issues. Although this is a CFR type elitist entity you have to find out what the top manipulators are thinking and the info they covet to know the direction of US government global policy. They do print warnings ...

China Brief
China Brief is a primary source of timely information and cutting-edge analysis for policy-makers, intelligence and military personnel, academics, journalists, and business leaders. It is published under the direction of Dr. Arthur Waldron at the University of Pennsylvania and is edited by Joseph E. Lin In addition to its audience in the United States, China Brief is widely-read in East Asia, where articles are regularly translated and reprinted in leading newspapers, journals, and websites. Through the use of indigenous sources and detailed and objective analysis, China Brief keeps U.S. public and private sector decision-makers alike informed of developments and trends in China. Writers include Senior Fellow Willy Wo-Lap Lam, Drew Thompson, Wenran Jiang, and other experts, many of whom are based in Asia.

From:Lawrence G. McMillan's The Option Strategist

Charts: http://tinyurl.com/64ekk

The bulls were having things pretty much their own way, after last Thursday's big breakout to the upside, decisively over $SPX 1400. Moreover, strong gains were registered this past Tuesday, as the market reversed from down to up on a very strong day ($SPX was up 21, from low to high). But then the wheels came loose. First, a daylong decline on Wednesday took the averages down sharply. Then, today, there was a weak close. There's no getting around the fact that
this bearishness of the past two days -- abetted by a sharply rising bond
market (indicative of asset allocators moving out of stocks and into bonds) -- is putting extreme pressure on the bullish case.

We have been saying that it would be negative if $SPX closed below 1390, for that would violate the 1390-1400 support area. It closed at 1392 on Wednesday. However, perhaps what's more important is the rising trend line of $SPX and not the well-publicized 1400 support area (see $SPX chart, figure 1). The market has ways of
confusing the majority, especially when the majority is all looking at the same thing (i.e., $SPX support at 1400). So, we wouldn't say that
the $SPX chart has lost its bullishness unless $SPX were to violate that trend and close below its 20-day moving average -- both of which are
near 1380 at the present time.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain bullish, as they continue to decline on their charts (Figures 2 and 3). The rate of decline has
slowed for the equity-only weighted ratio and for the QQQQ weighted ratio, but that alone does not constitute a sell signal.

Market breadth has never been really strong all year. Then, on Wednesday, breadth readings were poor, breadth has now given new sell signals.

The volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) remain in steep downtrends, and that is bullish. This is true, even though $VIX
jumped higher on Wednesday (see Figure 4). As long as $VIX is below its declining 20-day moving average, it will be considered
bullish. In fact, it would likely have to close above 21 in order to "officially" reverse the current bullish downtrend.

So, in summary, Wednesday's sharp decline and Thursday's poor close have put the bulls on notice. However, the recent uptrend is still
intact at this point. We would change our opinion to negative if a)$VIX closed above 21, and/or b) the equity-only put-call ratios rolled
over to sell signals, and/or c) $SPX closed below 1380. Those things are possible, of course, but not certain.

While doing my sunday reading (WIR + IBD) i am starting to think crude may not peak until after the summer and the end of the summer olympics. whether by demand or pure manipulation; the Olympics remains a great headline for oils and steel/basic material companies.

And $4 gas also is a great topic for debate via the elections. Maybe the top of crude oil will signal the top of the broad markets and that is when the trade of the generation will begin?

I know most have you heard about goldman's forecast for $150-200 per barrel. Here is the link, http://tinyurl.com/5z9xtj

looking long and hard at gold charts this evening,
i cant help but think its not about gold for the next few weeks as the major indicies and oil may be the starts of the show... or the dogs:

the S&P is at a critical point where this short term rally may break below the uptrend line after failing to breach the 200 day MA.

crude oil charts are touching the top of a trendline and may need geo-political strife to keep this run going. im concerned gold may resume its downtrend if oil corrects.

CMG:
Since I called shenanigans on the "good" news at earnings, this has performed beautifuly. From 118 to 93.50 in two weeks. I think this move ended Friday.

Vad: You are the capitulation expert. I think the price action Friday, where the candle stabs out a bottom, but it does not hold and closes slightly black, looks like a possible capitulation bottom.

The volume spiked massively, and there is a developing strong bullish MCAD divergence. RSI(3) has turned up and is 30.

It's obviously too soon to call a reversal, but I'm out and looking for a long reversal entry.

The overhead gap in the daily chart from 106-110 can easily be filled without breaking the longer-term downward trend. I'm eyeing 110 as a possible target if the reversal holds.

http://tinyurl.com/5egwu7
[Stockcharts]

SEED: Ascending triangle close to resolution.

BTW: I can't stomach our 'choices.' I'd vote for this guy, if he were eligible.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0t0EW6z8a0

ALOHA !!

I use FedEx ... and yes the fuel surcharges are dynamic!!

READ ON:
When "Dynamic" Is Too Slow...

FedEx's Alan Graf explains the company's most recent profit warning:

"While we have dynamic fuel surcharges in place, they cannot keep pace in the short-term with rapidly rising fuel prices."

Translation: If FedEx was a restaurant, it wouldn't be able to change the prices on the menu fast enough.

So the printing presses ran, and once they began to run, they were hard to stop. The price increases began to be dizzying. Menus in cafes could not be revised quickly enough. A student at Freiburg University ordered a cup of coffee at a cafe. The price on the menu was 5,000 Marks. He had two cups. When the bill came, it was for 14,000 Marks. "If you want to save money," he was told, "and you want two cups of coffee, you should order them both at the same time."

George Goodman (pen name Adam Smith), Paper Money, 1981

posted by The Cunning Realist at Monday, May 12, 2008

ALOHA !!

Looks like the "Walker Riots" will be starting sooner than I expected! If policemen riot then what? I mean how many people would be pissed off to find that they worked their whole life for nothing!!!

Perhaps the Bear Stearns employees practicing at the pistol range will soon be joined by government workers!

Accounting techniques, eh? Didn't Enron accountants go to prison for lesser crimes? Who regulates all this?

The list of bailouts is growing longer. We are now bailing out the US Banks, plus real estate victims and add on all these government pensioners. Who will bailout the US Taxpayer when the time comes?

Spend your $600 "stimulus" wisely ... even though it won't even buy an ounce of gold!

READ ON:
Growing Deficits Threaten Pensions
Accounting Tactics Conceal a Crisis For Public Workers

By David Cho

Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 11, 2008; Page A01

The funds that pay pension and health benefits to police officers, teachers and millions of other public employees across the country are facing a shortfall that could soon run into trillions of dollars.

But the accounting techniques used by state and local governments to balance their pension books disguise the extent of the crisis facing these retirees and the taxpayers who may ultimately be called on to pay the freight, according to a growing number of leading financial analysts.

State governments alone have reported they are already confronting a deficit of at least $750 billion to cover the cost of the retirement benefits they have promised. But that figure likely underestimates the actual shortfall because of the range of methods they use to make their calculations, including practices that have been barred in the private sector for decades.

Local governments use these same techniques for their pension funds and face deficits that further contribute to what some investors and analysts say may be shaping up to be a massive breach of faith with a generation of public employees.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

PDA - Downgraded to Neutral @ UBS

ECA - Target Price Raised from $88 to $92 @ Friedman Billings

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Has anyone seen the ad for some trading thing called Pipeline, the last line of the ad says "Sharks beware". Indeed.

Crystallex back in play. Break out yer titanium undershorts.

QT: Here is Colin Twiggs for May 10th.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2008-05-10.php

Does anyone here still own/plan to buy some KRY? It should make for a good daytrade at least, though I don't have the titanium to hold into Chavez' decision. It would be just like a 3rd world country to manipulate the stock down to 50 cents so that government insiders can buy buy buy the whole company only to approve their mine. Eh? If this thing happens it will truly be the "stock of the year", albeit, a year or 2 late.

[Bill Cara note: re "Stock of the Year"

The company was placed on my Preferred List -- as in prefer not to deal with -- immediately after the promoters behind this company parted ways with professional management and the auditors. With high-risk penny stocks, you put your money on the jockey after sizing the prospects of the horse. Today with Crystallex, you now have the owner and the trainer sitting together in the saddle, and the sad results are to be expected.]

Jack

Thanks!

Ok, sad results notwithstanding, this permit may be approved this week, which would turn this old nag into Seattle Slew. And what I'm talking about anyway is not what will happen later in the week, I'm talking about a today-trade. I can't see this stock going down on the news of a possible approval, which, if we are to believe the news reports, would come "straight from the horse's mouth". Admittedly, winning in this one may be more difficult than picking next Saturday's trifecta, but before we send this mare to the glue factory (or better yet, to France) let's ride her around the paddock one more time at least. Now a horse is a horse of course of course...(apologies to Bill for playing fast and loose with the equestrian metaphores, but this is kind of fun).