For someone like me who is “burdened by reality,” these are difficult days.

Save for the Fed liquidity pump on Friday and the People’s Bank of China’s new pumping policy earlier in the week, this week would have been a loser.

PetroBrazil (PBR +18.5% W/W) enjoyed the results of a new oilfield discovery.

Bear with me. This will be a quick Week In Review. I didn’t have much time to do this one – mostly because I spent half the day deciding whether or not I should even make the effort.

As it turns out, I am sure to have upset a few people.

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Global Economics Review

The US economy is a worsening picture. The fact that in 15 months, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has skyrocketed from $51 to $120, is clear indication the US economy is in deep trouble. Oil prices elsewhere in the world are as bad, which means that the global economy is also in deep trouble. Some traders are in denial. They mistakenly believe there can be a sustainable disconnect between capital markets and the economy.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Existing Home Sales report for March. The picture worsens.

US Durable Goods Orders for March are still falling.

US New Home Sales for March. The data is so bad, let’s review the Econoday report:

March's new home sales report is perhaps the most alarming yet of the housing recession, falling 8.5 percent from February to an annual rate of 526,000 -- the lowest rate since 1991. The year-on-year decline of 36.6 percent is the worst since 1981. Houses for sale fell back slightly in the month to 468,000 but when compared against the sales rate shows 11.0 months of supply, up from 10.2 months in February for the most bloated reading since 1981. Prices are plunging, down 6.8 percent in the month for a 13.3 percent year-on-year decrease -- the steepest decline since 1970.

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April. The data is so bad, let’s review the Econoday report:

Consumer confidence is at its lowest point since the early 80s according to the consumer sentiment index from Reuters/University of Michigan which fell to 62.6 from a mid-month reading of 63.2. The index for March was 69.5.

So much for last week, which was another bad one. Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar:

US Economic Calendar.

Conference Board reading US Consumer confidence for April. It can’t be good if the U of Michigan reading was the lowest in 27 years.

US Govt advance reading of Q1 GDP. Nest month will be first adjustment, and the month following that will be the final adjustment. Along the line, the numbers are ridiculously biased estimates, and often quite different from the final figure, which is also an estimate. Unless the data is produced independently, it serves only as a talking point for cheerleaders of the Administration.

US Fed central bank monetary policy decision

US Personal Income and Outlays report for March. The widening gap between the wealthy and the rest in America, which skews these numbers, cannot hide the fact that consumers are becoming desperate, and more unhappy than at any time since 1982. This crisis is being et with the plan of the Administration and Congress to write free money to people in need, and for US retailers offering special discounts to those who spend their “found” money in these stores rather than pay down their debts, which would be the prudent thing to do.

US manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories for April. The factory sector is contracting despite a falling USD that helps exporters like Boeing. Factory jobs in America continue to be eliminated and sent abroad in a master plan that US bankers are financing.

US Construction Spending for March continues to fall because America is basically bankrupt.

US Jobs Report for April. Employment falls and unemployment builds. The money giveaway by the Administration and Congress is an attempt to get people working part-time in low paid jobs to give the appearance the jobs picture is improving. You know who will take credit (for something that doesn’t not exist).

US Factory Orders for March. When factory orders fell -1.3% in February, worse than the -0.6% estimate and showing a back-to-back decline with January which, together with five consecutive sub-50 reading for new orders in the ISM report, it can only be said that the US manufacturing sector is in dire straits, and spin-masters will do all they can to hide that fact.

The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.

Weekly International Economic Report .

The UK housing and construction industries are in serious trouble. The French and German business confidence has sunk. Japanese economic indexes are plummeting. The Bank of Canada cut its bank rate by 50 basis points because the economy is in a tailspin. Oil prices are at all-time records, up 140% in 15 months. Food shortages are causing riots around the world.

Yet bankers will tell you the crisis is over, and they continue to pay Talking Heads on Financial Entertainment Television, the worst of which is CNBC, to tell the great unwashed that Life is Beautiful.

Actually “… there will be no tank for Giosué; but you knew that already.” In the real world, life is not beautiful.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

For this week, 16 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 14 down.

Friday was a boost as all but Techs and Consumer Staples had a good day.

But this is still a Bear market.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The upcoming Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) takeover battle will commence soon.

As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY”

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 8 sectors down and 2 up. But the two (XLU +0.33% and XLE +0.25%) were up marginally.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IYZ	24.89	0.16	0.65%	3.79%	6.55%	7.89%	-14.67%	-0.36%	-22.58%	-22.49%
XLF	26.97	0.49	1.85%	1.97%	7.32%	9.41%	-4.90%	-0.77%	-17.52%	-27.91%
SMH	30.96	0.06	0.19%	1.84%	4.77%	8.52%	-1.28%	10.49%	-8.54%	-17.88%
XLY	32.36	0.32	1.00%	0.90%	4.93%	5.99%	0.50%	4.86%	-10.43%	-18.59%
SPY	139.60	1.28	0.93%	0.81%	4.67%	6.11%	-3.68%	4.93%	-8.06%	-6.61%
XLK	24.00	-0.29	-1.19%	0.76%	6.24%	7.10%	-8.12%	5.08%	-12.95%	-2.00%
IYH	64.04	0.52	0.82%	0.55%	0.60%	1.89%	-8.64%	-2.93%	-10.17%	-10.61%
XLI	38.37	0.53	1.40%	0.13%	5.30%	4.15%	-0.36%	7.18%	-4.72%	3.06%
XLP	27.93	-0.15	-0.53%	-0.11%	0.54%	0.11%	-1.62%	4.61%	-0.78%	0.94%
XLU	40.34	0.13	0.32%	-0.42%	2.65%	7.20%	-4.16%	5.66%	-1.56%	-4.63%
XLB	43.95	1.30	3.05%	-0.92%	4.47%	9.08%	6.42%	14.33%	3.41%	11.18%
XLE	82.88	0.96	1.17%	-1.00%	6.94%	12.72%	4.25%	20.64%	9.15%	29.18%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

This week and beyond, I will use XLK for the Tech sector and revert to a total of ten (10) sectors, but will also use Semiconductors (SMH), which is my bellwether on the economy.

This week there were 3 sectors above SPY and 7 below. I feel that the interventionists were actively buying SPY on Friday (+0.91%) to give it a boost (+0.81%) on the week.

Week over week, the worst performers were Energy (XLE -1.00%), Basic Materials (XLB -0.92%) and Utilities (XLU -0.42%).

The best were Telecom (IYZ +3.79%), Financials (XLF +1.97%) and Semi’s (SMH +1.84%).

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PTR	149.50	-0.23	-0.15%	18.51%	15.56%	16.77%	-13.91%	1.13%	-39.89%	28.26%
STO	34.70	0.41	1.20%	2.66%	7.20%	16.21%	11.08%	34.65%	3.21%	20.49%
TOT	82.20	0.78	0.96%	1.28%	6.33%	12.08%	-1.30%	13.04%	5.43%	10.26%
SLB	102.74	0.80	0.78%	0.87%	13.39%	19.94%	2.15%	32.23%	4.73%	35.42%
CVX	92.69	0.29	0.31%	-0.53%	4.38%	9.69%	-0.82%	13.29%	1.60%	18.35%
SU	115.13	2.36	2.09%	-0.93%	10.30%	17.72%	4.41%	28.82%	8.46%	40.63%
XOM	92.46	-0.14	-0.15%	-1.64%	4.33%	8.50%	-1.12%	10.15%	0.97%	15.69%
PBR	123.33	1.28	1.05%	-1.72%	9.29%	22.23%	3.80%	17.88%	40.50%	133.54%
RIG	154.73	2.87	1.89%	-2.50%	6.65%	15.32%	6.02%	21.73%	32.44%	80.57%
CEO	173.23	-0.56	-0.32%	-2.85%	9.11%	15.16%	3.47%	19.06%	-10.20%	98.70%
IMO	57.23	1.03	1.83%	-2.92%	7.76%	7.88%	4.21%	17.15%	13.51%	46.26%
ECA	81.92	1.77	2.21%	-5.00%	4.66%	9.43%	17.68%	29.58%	23.02%	51.00%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PKX	123.86	1.86	1.52%	6.35%	2.17%	4.58%	-15.43%	-5.82%	-29.13%	14.76%
BHP	84.50	1.98	2.40%	4.37%	9.67%	28.89%	20.01%	33.24%	2.55%	68.16%
NUE	75.73	2.28	3.10%	2.45%	10.33%	9.66%	30.64%	37.77%	21.62%	13.27%
DOW	40.86	1.20	3.03%	2.20%	6.10%	11.46%	5.45%	12.53%	-6.41%	-11.31%
RTP	500.80	10.81	2.21%	2.14%	8.29%	22.89%	19.32%	35.46%	42.47%	99.32%
MT	88.96	-0.29	-0.32%	0.18%	7.31%	10.73%	16.44%	41.25%	12.69%	63.98%
RIO	37.92	0.59	1.58%	-0.03%	5.86%	11.04%	15.93%	36.85%	13.23%	-10.63%
GGB	37.13	-0.58	-1.54%	-0.35%	3.31%	21.50%	29.37%	50.51%	27.38%	81.92%
VCP	30.98	0.15	0.49%	-1.37%	-1.37%	10.01%	4.31%	17.62%	3.16%	52.99%
AA	35.72	0.87	2.50%	-1.49%	1.62%	-1.08%	-1.13%	16.39%	-6.95%	-0.11%
TS	52.08	-0.84	-1.59%	-4.09%	2.86%	6.66%	17.32%	37.12%	1.19%	9.90%
TCK	45.47	-1.17	-2.51%	-4.53%	-0.11%	8.06%	25.47%	39.86%	-7.37%	-41.97%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	84.84	1.84	2.22%	7.86%	10.38%	15.48%	-2.05%	10.14%	-11.63%	-10.40%
ABB	30.07	-0.18	-0.60%	7.51%	13.13%	12.58%	4.99%	24.00%	3.55%	54.44%
GE	33.33	0.52	1.58%	1.96%	3.99%	-8.96%	-9.33%	-1.97%	-17.01%	-5.87%
FLR	161.47	4.42	2.81%	0.86%	8.04%	15.05%	11.82%	33.50%	-3.94%	65.34%
TXT	61.39	0.65	1.07%	0.69%	7.40%	12.39%	-8.11%	15.05%	-7.93%	19.07%
UTX	72.68	-0.02	-0.03%	0.23%	4.53%	6.02%	-3.36%	-0.10%	-4.01%	6.82%
UPS	72.72	-0.05	-0.07%	-0.64%	2.58%	0.64%	5.15%	3.93%	-3.00%	-0.38%
HON	60.49	0.18	0.30%	-0.82%	6.14%	8.31%	0.98%	3.85%	2.30%	12.04%
ERJ	41.76	0.08	0.19%	-1.09%	-2.16%	6.34%	-7.47%	1.90%	-13.00%	-12.07%
FDX	94.46	-0.29	-0.31%	-2.33%	1.68%	3.50%	9.63%	5.00%	-8.56%	-12.63%
CAT	82.25	0.43	0.53%	-3.55%	9.96%	6.69%	16.45%	24.75%	10.15%	12.32%
MMM	77.82	-1.31	-1.66%	-6.13%	-0.83%	-0.17%	-5.91%	3.06%	-9.61%	1.10%

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	43.20	1.23	2.93%	7.22%	12.35%	15.26%	3.72%	1.69%	-21.92%	-47.59%
DIS	32.36	0.42	1.31%	3.29%	7.22%	4.39%	1.63%	12.83%	-6.07%	-8.38%
BBBY	33.43	0.44	1.33%	3.21%	10.59%	14.84%	17.88%	13.86%	0.66%	-19.70%
BC	16.35	0.16	0.99%	1.87%	2.19%	1.43%	-3.37%	-4.39%	-19.06%	-46.76%
NKE	68.74	0.68	1.00%	1.25%	3.07%	4.37%	8.63%	22.75%	7.68%	28.20%
TM	102.06	1.96	1.96%	0.50%	6.29%	-1.67%	-4.13%	0.06%	-3.49%	-16.98%
BDK	67.58	-0.31	-0.46%	-1.10%	1.95%	3.22%	-3.36%	-3.43%	-24.69%	-26.81%
TGT	53.98	1.08	2.04%	-1.14%	3.87%	8.63%	9.03%	4.61%	-13.37%	-10.81%
EBAY	31.30	0.09	0.29%	-1.29%	1.39%	3.57%	-3.66%	16.66%	-11.21%	-7.31%
GOL	15.00	0.22	1.49%	-1.32%	-3.35%	-6.83%	-37.47%	-17.72%	-41.45%	-49.51%
WHR	76.40	2.51	3.40%	-6.84%	-7.65%	-10.54%	-4.36%	-1.77%	-8.99%	-28.86%
CCL	39.45	-0.30	-0.75%	-7.13%	-0.68%	-0.63%	-9.64%	-4.73%	-16.82%	-18.74%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KR	26.39	0.15	0.57%	5.56%	10.46%	4.89%	2.80%	4.31%	-8.27%	-11.77%
PDA	52.72	-0.63	-1.18%	4.05%	12.41%	13.62%	9.54%	27.37%	-0.57%	74.22%
WMT	57.65	0.20	0.35%	2.38%	5.20%	10.61%	22.92%	19.88%	31.38%	18.11%
PG	66.55	-0.28	-0.42%	-0.92%	-4.93%	-4.16%	-7.97%	1.90%	-6.73%	4.75%
KO	59.33	-0.92	-1.53%	-1.30%	-1.59%	-2.64%	-2.88%	1.58%	-3.21%	14.67%
WAG	35.49	-0.33	-0.92%	-1.31%	-1.64%	-5.18%	-4.95%	3.53%	-11.23%	-22.81%
DEO	81.93	-0.49	-0.59%	-1.42%	-1.03%	-0.23%	-3.68%	3.91%	-9.41%	-2.28%
BUD	47.15	-0.14	-0.30%	-1.67%	-2.50%	-1.77%	-8.68%	-0.21%	-9.80%	-7.37%
ABV	73.65	0.05	0.07%	-4.09%	-5.03%	-3.24%	1.61%	10.06%	-4.78%	23.14%
PEP	67.62	-0.38	-0.56%	-4.22%	-5.29%	-5.51%	-10.19%	-1.89%	-6.06%	0.96%
WFMI	31.19	-0.48	-1.52%	-5.34%	-2.65%	-3.97%	-21.55%	-16.94%	-34.49%	-34.90%
SBUX	15.86	-0.13	-0.81%	-13.24%	-8.11%	-6.98%	-17.87%	-19.33%	-39.40%	-50.19%

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVS	50.60	0.50	1.00%	5.88%	6.57%	-0.71%	-7.28%	0.72%	-2.09%	-13.31%
WLP	51.07	2.07	4.22%	5.43%	11.02%	18.14%	-41.30%	-31.62%	-35.06%	-35.22%
AET	43.91	1.65	3.90%	5.07%	7.05%	3.22%	-22.48%	-16.52%	-21.58%	-2.42%
GSK	45.12	1.00	2.27%	4.16%	6.04%	6.72%	-10.07%	-3.84%	-11.09%	-23.25%
JNJ	67.31	-0.06	-0.09%	1.20%	1.98%	4.88%	2.12%	7.76%	5.25%	4.07%
BMY	22.15	-0.06	-0.27%	0.23%	2.07%	3.12%	-15.23%	-3.57%	-24.56%	-25.42%
PFE	20.43	0.39	1.95%	-0.20%	-0.10%	-0.34%	-10.82%	-9.64%	-15.89%	-22.38%
DNA	71.97	-0.95	-1.30%	-1.03%	-6.28%	-10.04%	6.78%	6.17%	-3.63%	-11.58%
MDT	49.42	-0.04	-0.08%	-1.14%	-0.76%	3.26%	-0.16%	7.16%	3.63%	-7.76%
AMGN	42.25	-0.15	-0.35%	-1.90%	-1.77%	1.93%	-9.33%	-12.24%	-26.28%	-31.51%
NVO	67.05	0.05	0.07%	-5.83%	-4.62%	0.48%	5.09%	14.26%	-43.11%	-32.78%
UNH	33.99	0.40	1.19%	-8.75%	-5.24%	-1.19%	-40.02%	-32.02%	-29.96%	-35.80%

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IBN	47.20	2.35	5.24%	11.90%	21.18%	19.25%	-24.05%	-24.19%	-18.94%	1.46%
GS	192.00	3.21	1.70%	6.71%	14.76%	16.75%	-7.51%	0.33%	-15.29%	-14.89%
MS	50.65	0.26	0.52%	6.03%	16.09%	13.21%	-0.59%	3.60%	-18.31%	-40.07%
C	26.60	0.84	3.26%	5.93%	13.87%	27.70%	-8.02%	-0.15%	-35.48%	-50.56%
MER	49.64	1.55	3.22%	4.84%	13.64%	24.32%	-5.91%	-9.68%	-18.49%	-45.84%
JPM	47.79	0.82	1.75%	4.44%	12.37%	11.89%	13.33%	9.51%	3.78%	-9.52%
LEH	46.87	0.49	1.06%	3.01%	17.56%	23.77%	-24.63%	-19.01%	-17.66%	-39.27%
CS	54.91	0.85	1.57%	2.73%	2.35%	9.62%	-7.99%	1.78%	-14.74%	-30.52%
BBD	22.14	0.42	1.93%	2.12%	-26.25%	-19.49%	-27.24%	-17.91%	-29.29%	1.51%
UBS	36.00	1.09	3.12%	1.93%	6.48%	29.64%	-21.38%	-13.50%	-32.01%	-45.09%
HBC	85.78	0.99	1.17%	1.10%	2.19%	5.69%	4.05%	13.32%	-7.37%	-8.20%
DB	120.35	0.73	0.61%	-1.00%	4.36%	6.79%	-6.75%	8.01%	-3.18%	-22.83%

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ADSK	39.38	1.85	4.93%	18.36%	23.10%	23.95%	-18.37%	-4.65%	-16.66%	-4.04%
AAPL	169.73	0.79	0.47%	5.40%	15.35%	18.68%	-12.89%	30.55%	-7.14%	78.01%
CSCO	25.60	-0.43	-1.65%	4.45%	9.50%	6.31%	-3.54%	5.79%	-17.90%	-4.41%
ADBE	36.89	-0.54	-1.44%	1.71%	2.53%	4.42%	-11.56%	5.88%	-21.84%	-13.63%
QCOM	43.24	0.08	0.19%	1.62%	4.44%	7.72%	12.63%	8.10%	6.01%	-4.63%
CTSH	31.25	-0.13	-0.41%	0.94%	17.79%	7.09%	-3.04%	16.30%	-20.28%	-30.23%
INFY	43.12	0.04	0.09%	0.09%	20.41%	18.79%	-2.95%	9.86%	-11.24%	-19.54%
INTC	22.56	-0.13	-0.57%	0.04%	6.21%	8.51%	-11.01%	12.80%	-12.86%	1.35%
SAP	51.85	0.14	0.27%	-0.19%	1.77%	5.56%	2.21%	13.28%	-2.83%	3.97%
ORCL	21.59	-0.42	-1.91%	-0.96%	8.82%	11.46%	-4.00%	6.46%	2.81%	14.23%
SNDK	26.84	-0.94	-3.38%	-2.04%	1.67%	26.25%	-19.08%	4.76%	-33.10%	-38.90%
RIMM	120.04	-3.62	-2.93%	-2.58%	3.62%	4.07%	5.57%	31.84%	0.92%	165.69%

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.29	1.19	1.28	1.20
6 Month	1.65	1.62	1.60	1.41
2 Year	2.41	2.38	2.13	1.62
3 Year	2.33	2.29	2.07	1.50
5 Year	3.17	3.09	2.90	2.49
10 Year	3.87	3.82	3.71	3.46
30 Year	4.59	4.54	4.50	4.31

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.47	2.45	2.39	2.55
2yr AAA	2.42	2.38	2.31	2.48
2yr A	2.79	2.77	2.76	2.65
5yr AAA	3.10	3.04	2.98	3.03
5yr AA	3.11	3.07	3.00	3.08
5yr A	3.35	3.43	3.26	3.09
10yr AAA	3.74	3.67	3.63	3.72
10yr AA	3.64	3.60	3.53	3.92
10yr A	4.03	3.73	3.78	3.96
20yr AAA	4.45	4.39	4.35	4.60
20yr AA	4.84	4.78	4.72	5.03
20yr A	4.66	4.59	4.52	5.01

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.30	4.31	4.14	3.77
2yr A	3.97	3.90	3.82	3.55
5yr AAA	4.35	4.51	4.43	3.97
5yr AA	5.01	4.82	4.71	4.31
5yr A	5.02	5.35	5.19	4.84
10yr AAA	5.56	5.41	5.52	2.31
10yr AA	5.92	5.87	5.77	5.69
10yr A	5.55	5.57	5.45	5.51
20yr AAA	6.50	6.44	6.58	6.36
20yr AA	6.09	6.05	5.73	6.08
20yr A	6.37	6.31	6.44	6.23

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Yields on the 2-year through 30-year Treasury notes and bonds were all much higher this week, as bonds sold off under inflation pressures. Crude oil at $120 will do that.

Three weeks ago I wrote:

It’s hard to write about yields because the market is in silly season with interventionists swarming about. I say, if you are not in the room, you are out of the deal. Who knows what these guys have cooked up? All I know that the import prices are up about +7.0% Y/Y and the consumer is fed up.

Two weeks ago (my last WIR) I added: “I may be premature, but the charts are showing me a cyclic reversal in bond prices (down) and yields (up). That may not be allowed by the Fed to carry on too far, but you have been alerted to the possibility. If it should play out, that would strengthen the USD and put the commodity prices under pressure. This is a time to be extra careful if you are long commodities.”

So far, the precious metals have been hammered. You were alerted to the possibility.

Btw, I read in the Discourse about a securities industry veteran who joined the GATA crowd in Washington to raise a ruckus. I commented to a friend that that group is just as bad as HB&B. You say one thing negative about gold prices and you quickly feel the needle in your back.

I will leave it at this: the money business is impacted by closely knit vested interest groups. There are the usual powers, the politicians, central bankers and bankers, and then there are the corporate lobby groups – energy, healthcare, tobacco, and so forth, and the social groups, the religious and gun lobbies and so forth. Then you have specialized interests like the “tree huggers” and “goldbugs” and on an on. Even the so-called independents are out there at all the “investor conferences” selling their “know-it-all” expertise, each one endorsing the other, backwards and forwards. At the end of the day, these groups are all pretty much the same; they shun the truly independent trader. You are either in their choir or you are not.

As for me, I am the classic outsider. I have one interest and that is being a student of the market. I want to have an understanding of price, and in order to do that I share my ideas to the people who make those prices, which happens to be you. I learn from you – if you also are independent and objective, otherwise what I hear from you is what I already know. You see, I know what the Administration is going to say. Same for the central bankers, broker-dealer sell-side, mutual fund manager, corporate lobby groups, tree-huggers, and what have you. Who I want to hear from are the free-thinkers. And I’ll do whatever it takes to meet you, including destroying the myths that have influenced your life.

I hope that’s not too much to handle, but it’s who I am, fully transparent, and why I have so little patience with people on the dark side.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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The TLT lost -1.02% to 91.82. The TIP lost -1.06% W/W to close at 106.42.

It was only in mid-to-late March that TLT and TIP were at 97.75 and 112.11 respectively, which happens to be losses of -6.1% and -5.1% in about a month. For fixed-income investors that’s painful.

These bonds have started to sell off as I had alerted traders a couple weeks ago would soon be the case.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	30.93	2.90	10.35%	8.34%	18.78%	18.87%	-17.43%	-2.74%	-45.98%	-47.52%
DRE	25.50	0.50	2.00%	6.29%	11.65%	13.43%	-0.47%	8.33%	-21.44%	-42.26%
AVB	104.88	-0.25	-0.24%	3.73%	8.88%	10.28%	14.81%	14.12%	-9.33%	-20.06%
EQR	43.80	0.46	1.06%	3.33%	8.55%	8.55%	20.23%	16.46%	11.54%	-8.35%
FRE	27.94	1.92	7.38%	3.25%	18.94%	9.78%	-14.66%	-5.54%	-44.77%	-57.28%
CFC	5.840	0.060	1.04%	2.82%	11.03%	3.73%	-35.11%	-2.99%	-55.32%	-84.52%
NLY	17.09	0.25	1.48%	0.77%	8.51%	7.48%	-5.58%	-10.24%	0.18%	6.41%
SHY	83.13	0.01	0.01%	-0.28%	-0.96%	-1.29%	0.96%	-0.44%	2.03%	3.42%
AGG	101.40	-0.28	-0.28%	-0.59%	-1.23%	-1.40%	-0.25%	-1.64%	0.55%	1.07%
IEF	88.57	-0.12	-0.14%	-0.97%	-2.62%	-3.23%	1.07%	-1.81%	4.09%	6.52%
TLT	91.82	-0.54	-0.58%	-1.02%	-4.02%	-3.90%	-2.71%	-4.30%	1.22%	3.76%
TIP	106.42	-0.14	-0.13%	-1.06%	-2.81%	-2.94%	-0.21%	-2.55%	2.88%	5.30%

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB lost -0.37% W/W to close at 417.80. There would have been a bigger loss W/W except for a strong gain on Friday (+0.70%).

I’ll say that CRB looked ready to challenge the 50d MA (404.69) until the boost on Friday, mostly from Crude Oil, which btw came mostly from stories (eg, pipeline issues, rebel action, warship maneuvers, etc).

As I wrote four weeks ago, “unless the Fed or the Wall Street loan sharks come up with the vigorish to play this market, commodity prices sink. In a Bear market within a rapidly receding economy, with financial institution counter-party risks on the rise, buying commodity prices higher is a fool’s game. My opinion, but then this is my blog.”

As I pointed out two weeks ago, “I bring it up again here “because every time there is a commodity cycle that peaks, even temporarily, there are hard feelings by (goldbugs).” But that’s what happens in Bear markets caused by credit contraction. This is the last car in the train over the hill and down into the valley…It never fails.”

One final point: Jim Sinclair may be a saint for all I know. What I do know is that he is a gold bug who is also a mining company executive with a huge stake invested in gold. So he’s part of the sell-side. I really wish people here would try to find analysts who are independent and objective when pointing to their remarks.

In other words, if you need a crutch, make sure it’s a straight one.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) lifted +2.36/bbl or +2.03% W/W, closing at 118.52, which is hard to take for the already reeling US consumer. The high Friday was 119.55.

“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 106.24 (amazing!), and the 200d MA is 90.46.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD lost -25.50/oz (-2.79% W/W) to 889.70.

In mid-March, it was $1033.90. Sorry gold-bugs, but sometimes the price falls too. In fact, it does when the $USD rallies. But you knew that so why are you bloody defensive all the time?

Actually, you know the answer to that too.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 942.47, and the 200d MA is 818.76. So the current price is well below the 50-day MA. The price still looks weak, but then it’s all a matter of how much, if any, the FOMC cuts rates on Tuesday.

I’ll say this: if there is no rate cut, then the $USD is likely to rally even more and the gold-bugs will be crying poor and back on the conspiracy bandwagon again.

Yes, I believe in the conspiracy. But let’s just say I believe more in the trends and cycles of the price series data. That way I stay focused.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER lost -4.84% to close at 16.96, and that’s after a gain of +1.13% on Friday.

Let me remind you that $SILVER was $21.44 just a month ago.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 18.43, and the 200d MA is 15.25. The current price is well below the 50-day MA.

As I said since a couple days after the peak, when the gold-bugs were all claiming that the Bear Stearns fiasco was just a brief blip on the radar screen (or do you forget that already): “If you are a Precious Metals Bull, let’s see if silver and gold can get above the 50-day MA before we start dancing. As far as I’m concerned, until that happens, the music has stopped.”

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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This week $PLAT lost -103.30 (-4.99%) to $1968.00. That’s eight weeks of losses from a peak of $2299.00 in March.

How can you say you lost $103 an ounce an not be serious. This is real money.

The 50-day MA is 2059.64 and the 200-day MA is 1595.68. Note that the current price is now below the 50-day MA, like gold and silver.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM lost -24.35/oz W/W to 452.80.

The 50-day MA is now 486.56 and the 200-day MA is 398.26. Note that the current price is now well below the 50-day MA, like the other precious metals.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +1.85 (+0.48%) on the contracts to 391.10. The price is stagnating. Only Friday’s move of +0.93% made a gain on the week.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 382.85 and the 200-day MA is 346.22.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HMY	11.89	0.13	1.11%	-0.83%	4.21%	-1.57%	10.60%	9.38%	16.00%	-28.29%
AU	35.98	0.38	1.07%	-3.18%	-2.73%	7.89%	-21.54%	-16.35%	-20.71%	-22.29%
GFI	13.86	0.15	1.09%	-3.21%	-3.28%	-3.82%	-10.00%	-8.51%	-22.57%	-26.24%
NEM	44.73	1.73	4.02%	-3.33%	-2.68%	-3.91%	-14.62%	-16.02%	-3.12%	1.13%
LIHR	28.36	0.39	1.39%	-5.28%	-4.29%	-14.11%	-14.50%	-13.67%	-26.72%	12.36%
AUY	13.39	0.33	2.53%	-7.59%	-5.84%	-11.09%	-3.46%	-14.28%	-3.74%	-7.78%
ABX	39.67	0.44	1.12%	-9.35%	-7.07%	-11.25%	-13.80%	-23.96%	-6.15%	37.55%
BVN	63.60	1.73	2.80%	-10.13%	-7.49%	-10.27%	4.47%	-0.63%	23.33%	90.88%
EGO	6.610	0.040	0.61%	-11.04%	-8.32%	-5.57%	6.61%	5.42%	-1.34%	11.09%
GG	36.59	0.29	0.80%	-11.96%	-6.92%	-7.37%	-0.14%	-3.35%	13.28%	44.23%
AEM	62.35	0.94	1.53%	-13.61%	-9.76%	-9.86%	10.31%	-0.62%	18.88%	71.95%
KGC	19.46	0.08	0.41%	-18.30%	-14.46%	-14.57%	-3.42%	-12.26%	11.20%	42.98%

This week, the $XAU lost -12.45 -6.60% W/W to 176.06, despite Friday’s gain of +2.00%.

A week ago, under different circumstances I wrote, “Clearly, the gold bugs are hoping that the share prices precede the bullion price movement, as is typical.” Now they are hoping for an atypical move.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 187.82, and the 200d MA is 172.06. Note that the current price is right on the all-important 200-day MA.

But, aha, look at the other goldminer indexes (AMEX and Toronto). In both cases, the losses (-9.07% and -8.31% W/W) have broken down below the 200day MA, and if you check the chart you will see the current index level is underwater since back in December 2007.

Or maybe you’d like to close your eyes and blame JP Morgan.

I don’t know about you, but when important indexes drop in a single week 7, 8, and 9%, I would not be happy being long. I wouldn’t be asking mining promoters or GATA members for the answer.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD gained +1.14% to 72.80 this week.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) lost -1.20% W/W to close at 1.56.18.

Pretty soon it might get back to about 1.22 where one of the guru newsletter writers that people seem to love for some reason hated it.

I’d quote Dennis but I don’t need another enemy in one day.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound was soft (-0.60% W/W), although up +0.56% on Friday.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 198.70 and 201.22 respectively.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.67% W/W to 95.75. I thought it might gain some strength after the fiscal year ended in March, but the economy has literally hit the wall in Japan.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 97.35 and the 200-day MA is 90.46.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) lost -0.98% this week to close Friday at 98.57.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.48 and 99.19 respectively, which means the current price (98.57) is below both. The $USD did strengthen as I surmised.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

I ought to be tracking the China Yuan here (CNY). Maybe I’ll get a chance.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cny

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International Equity Markets Review

International equities are side-tracking. Traders seem to be waiting to see what central banks are ready to do in terms of more rate-cutting.

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices.

The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWH	19.43	0.02	0.10%	3.74%	7.11%	7.82%	-10.83%	-3.09%	-12.87%	16.14%
EWA	27.93	0.00	0.00%	2.05%	5.40%	8.34%	-2.95%	4.26%	-15.24%	0.79%
IFN	49.89	0.70	1.42%	1.26%	12.31%	8.20%	-19.40%	-7.01%	-9.70%	18.45%
EWG	32.86	0.22	0.67%	0.31%	4.12%	4.92%	-7.15%	9.50%	-6.81%	4.82%
EWS	13.67	-0.12	-0.87%	0.07%	3.95%	7.05%	1.33%	8.75%	-9.59%	4.75%
EWQ	36.66	0.18	0.49%	0.03%	4.24%	6.26%	-3.37%	10.89%	-5.98%	-3.63%
EWJ	13.10	0.25	1.95%	0.00%	4.55%	5.05%	-0.98%	5.05%	-5.76%	-9.90%
EWU	23.02	0.29	1.28%	0.00%	4.92%	7.37%	-3.60%	6.03%	-12.67%	-8.25%
EWZ	87.64	1.25	1.45%	-0.15%	6.02%	14.01%	8.26%	18.91%	10.27%	61.70%
EWC	32.65	0.32	0.99%	-1.51%	4.51%	7.90%	0.77%	10.16%	-3.69%	16.52%
TRF	58.61	-0.83	-1.40%	-4.78%	-0.26%	3.55%	-20.25%	-3.28%	-16.59%	-19.26%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The long-term (Monthly data series) charts of the US equity markets are showing rising technical indicators for RSI, but I am not sucked in, as you know. A couple weeks ago (when I did the last WIR), I said, “Sometimes, you just have to follow your nose.”

Well, take a look at the Weekly and Daily Stochastics. They are at a peak. It will be hard for the Bulls to sustain a rally here unless the Fed drops rates on Tuesday by more than 25 basis points, and Larry Kudlow changes his spin from “the Fed needs to cut!” to “the Fed needs to raise!”

It’s all nonsense folks, which is why I refer to clown suits.

At the end of the week, the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 small cap indexes were up +0.33%, +0.54%, +0.83% and +0.11% respectively. The NASDAQ dropped -0.25% on Friday after Microsoft (MSFT) lost a lot of money this past quarter and gave unfavorable guidance for this quarter and next.

Boeing (BA) climbed +7.9% to win this week’s Dow 30 derby. General Motors (GM) was up +6.2% for place and Citigroup was up +5.9% for show. American Express (AXP) and JP Morgan (JPM) were close by.

The losers were 3M (MMM) at -6.1%, DuPont (DD) at -4.1% and Caterpillar (CAT) at -3.6%.

Sixteen Dow stocks gained, mostly because of the pump, pump, pump on Friday. How much water is left in the well? I guess you’ll have to ask Bernanke, the man who will be telling us one thing on Tuesday and probably doing something quite different.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	84.84	1.84	2.22%	7.86%	10.38%	15.48%	-2.05%	10.14%	-11.63%	-10.40%
GM	21.38	-0.73	-3.30%	6.21%	8.97%	14.52%	-12.41%	-17.10%	-43.27%	-31.19%
C	26.60	0.84	3.26%	5.93%	13.87%	27.70%	-8.02%	-0.15%	-35.48%	-50.56%
AXP	47.77	2.59	5.73%	4.92%	10.09%	10.71%	-6.41%	5.13%	-20.06%	-23.35%
JPM	47.79	0.82	1.75%	4.44%	12.37%	11.89%	13.33%	9.51%	3.78%	-9.52%
HD	29.78	0.86	2.97%	3.84%	5.72%	8.77%	14.06%	4.38%	-3.00%	-24.61%
DIS	32.36	0.42	1.31%	3.29%	7.22%	4.39%	1.63%	12.83%	-6.07%	-8.38%
T	38.58	-0.07	-0.18%	2.85%	3.43%	2.44%	-5.90%	9.42%	-5.90%	-1.43%
VZ	37.04	0.68	1.87%	2.80%	4.07%	3.32%	-14.28%	-1.91%	-17.52%	-1.62%
MRK	40.72	0.75	1.88%	2.41%	-1.02%	-8.51%	-29.02%	-14.79%	-28.64%	-22.28%
WMT	57.65	0.20	0.35%	2.38%	5.20%	10.61%	22.92%	19.88%	31.38%	18.11%
MCD	59.67	0.09	0.15%	2.35%	7.71%	7.55%	2.70%	10.30%	2.76%	22.70%
GE	33.33	0.52	1.58%	1.96%	3.99%	-8.96%	-9.33%	-1.97%	-17.01%	-5.87%
JNJ	67.31	-0.06	-0.09%	1.20%	1.98%	4.88%	2.12%	7.76%	5.25%	4.07%
UTX	72.68	-0.02	-0.03%	0.23%	4.53%	6.02%	-3.36%	-0.10%	-4.01%	6.82%
INTC	22.56	-0.13	-0.57%	0.04%	6.21%	8.51%	-11.01%	12.80%	-12.86%	1.35%
PFE	20.43	0.39	1.95%	-0.20%	-0.10%	-0.34%	-10.82%	-9.64%	-15.89%	-22.38%
CVX	92.69	0.29	0.31%	-0.53%	4.38%	9.69%	-0.82%	13.29%	1.60%	18.35%
MSFT	29.83	-1.97	-6.19%	-0.57%	5.48%	6.88%	-15.30%	-9.44%	-6.75%	2.90%
BAC	38.30	0.43	1.14%	-0.67%	3.68%	0.60%	-5.57%	-2.99%	-18.51%	-25.24%
PG	66.55	-0.28	-0.42%	-0.92%	-4.93%	-4.16%	-7.97%	1.90%	-6.73%	4.75%
IBM	123.08	-1.11	-0.89%	-1.06%	6.10%	7.43%	17.57%	17.76%	9.10%	21.31%
KO	59.33	-0.92	-1.53%	-1.30%	-1.59%	-2.64%	-2.88%	1.58%	-3.21%	14.67%
AIG	47.53	0.56	1.19%	-1.45%	7.90%	11.05%	-15.58%	-10.69%	-23.08%	-32.08%
AA	35.72	0.87	2.50%	-1.49%	1.62%	-1.08%	-1.13%	16.39%	-6.95%	-0.11%
HPQ	47.45	-0.90	-1.86%	-1.52%	4.35%	2.95%	-4.74%	8.48%	-7.67%	13.33%
XOM	92.46	-0.14	-0.15%	-1.64%	4.33%	8.50%	-1.12%	10.15%	0.97%	15.69%
CAT	82.25	0.43	0.53%	-3.55%	9.96%	6.69%	16.45%	24.75%	10.15%	12.32%
DD	49.88	0.19	0.38%	-4.11%	1.11%	7.41%	14.04%	11.54%	3.19%	-0.18%
MMM	77.82	-1.31	-1.66%	-6.13%	-0.83%	-0.17%	-5.91%	3.06%	-9.61%	1.10%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on two Dow 30 companies: (Cara 100) United Technologies (UTX); and Caterpillar (CAT)

(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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With respect to the shares of UTX, I agree with Value Line analyst Erik Manning that there is a likelihood of downside price action for this year and perhaps, as Eric opines, “slightly below-average appreciation potential out to 2011-2013”.

The CAT doesn’t much interest me right now. There was a huge run up in the stock from 4Q02 to 2Q06, from under 20 to 80, based on the ramped up capex programs needed to support the then-growing construction, mining, and ag business. But the global economic picture has reversed.

I agree with Value Line analyst David Reimer when he writes, “We’re a bit more conservative than the company about its growth prospects, (where they are) projecting 2010 sales of $57 billion-$58 billion…and $8.00 to $10.00 in share-net by the year 2010’’… We are also conservative regarding the company’s annual share-net advances, staying near the lower end of the targeted 15% to 20% range.”

Then he opines, “By our reckoning, the company should earn about $8.75 a share in 2010.” I’ll be shocked if the company can even earn $8.00/share in 2010 unless it does so by financial engineering, ie, more debt to buy in shares and pay out huge dividend increases.

I think there is a chance the CAT will fall 20%-30% before pursuing its next life.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 1: next one is due May 2)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb 8: next one is due May 9)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Feb. 22: next one is due May 23)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 7: next one is due Jun. 6)

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Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 21: next one is due Jun. 20)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Apr. 18: next one is due Jul. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Apr. 25: next one is due Jul. 25)

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Wrap up:

You know that I always said that I would only write this blog as long as I was having fun. The fact is I am no longer having fun. At least the fun has been missing this past month.

I am not having fun dealing with bureaucrats who don’t understand the value of time and money. I am not having fun trying to explain to people why they cannot buy my book. I am not having fun explaining to people why I will not allow certain premium reports we had worked on for months to go out under my name. I am not having fun explaining to people who I care about (who are not “qualified”, “accredited” or “sophisticated”) why I cannot give them financial advice or lead them to professional services over which bankers long ago seized control over in their own interests. I am not having fun dealing with numbnuts who continuously try to use my blog for a free ride. I am not having fun explaining to people that banks have always been a conflicted advisor you should not blindly trust, but in their present desperate state are now the party you must not trust. I am not having fun for other reasons too personal to mention.

In any case, you probably sense what all of this means. A few of you, I know from 60,000 letters, care. Some of you know that after seven years, I am putting my business face on. In business I wasn’t always the nice guy I think I’ve been in retirement.

In any case, I am seeking to find solutions to all of the above. As other parties are involved, I cannot tell when or even if there will be mutually acceptable answers, but two things are as certain as certain can be: I will blog for capital markets and social equity when I feel up to doing so, and I will focus on building a financial services business for those persons who want to avail themselves of one of the only truly independent and objective services they could find. The latter is needed, whether or not I am involved.

For those of you who wish to deal direct with me today for financial services, sadly there is not much I can do right now for the average person because of securities laws that are in place to protect the bankers. But I am working on it, and will have solutions soon. I must because of the situation I see today in the marketplace. At least I feel I must lead by example.

I received a letter this morning asking me if I had watched a news magazine show in which a farmer had his life savings "traded away" by a stockbroker from one of the world’s largest financial services companies. I was told, “The broker was fined, left the industry, but of course he never did pay the fine. His boss paid a fine, but is still around to screw others.” I replied that in this cycle, the horror stories have just begun.

Securities regulators have to realize that the broker-dealer business model is a travesty that must be stopped asap. These registered representatives are not advisors; they are licensed to sell the products their employers create. The only long-term solution is to eliminate the conflict of interest, which can only be done by splitting apart the lending banks, investment banks/dealers, distributors/sales firms, and independent advisors. Each needs different checks and balances, including independent boards of directors and regulatory mechanisms than are not under the influence of bankers or politics.

The banking system must be pulled apart; but, as I see it, there is no regulator, save for Eliot Spitzer in the past, who has the guts to go down that road. Meanwhile, the situation worsens and the owners of capital are being exploited. The letter writer I will soon refer to calls them being “screwed”. Deep down Mr. Regulator, I think we both know that’s the truth.

Most everybody in financial services today can grab humungous fees in return for providing little or no value, and often little effort. Just because they can. They have the power.

If you want to guess at how big the problem is, look at the relatively small mutual funds industry. I say small, because compared to the whole revenue model of Humungous Bank & Broker, it is not large. Yet, mutual funds are a $10 trillion industry and the fees and charges (that would be just one-third as much if done without conflicts of interest) are roughly 6% or $600 billion paid out in general, selling, admin and trading charges. That’s $400 billion wasted every year – in effect stolen from Mom & Pop -- because the owners of capital are trapped in the broker-dealer model.

For this reason, I decided to promote electronic brokerages and flat fee-based financial advisors only and my firm will charge no expenses or charges of any kind for the advisory services we render. Our compensation will come 100% from successful performance. We’ll do our job in “seeking alpha” and leave it to electronic brokers and independent and objective financial advisors to “know the client” and seek the best products and services for the clients whom they know and work for.

That is the only financial services model that works 100% for the owner of capital, wealthy or not, who does not have time or skill needed to prudently and successfully manage their own capital. The broker-dealer model, which is based on conflicts of interest, is no longer acceptable.

So, if there are pure electronic brokers and independent fee-based financial planners who wish to contact me about mutually supporting the efforts of each other, I would be pleased to talk.

We are already working with a few banks and brokers, the main one being Interactive Brokers, who are licensed to deal with all types of investors across US, Canada, Europe and Asia, toward providing future services to the public in the next couple months. In this situation, you will simply establish the account with the broker in the normal course, and sign a tri-partite agreement that brings my firm into the arrangement.

For "qualified", "accredited" or "sophisticated" investors, we are rolling out a series of products and services, starting last week with the Forex managed trading account, which I consider as a very worthy cash management solution. The next ones will be for trading in metals and Cara 100-related investments, through managed futures accounts.

I am looking into a solution for a different blog manager, perhaps an independent not-for-profit charitable organization, where I continue to write and show leadership, but where the participants become members who pay a small tax-deductible organization fee to ensure that the blog is maintained at the highest standards. Perhaps as I suggested to somebody on Saturday this new manager will be more entertaining – with more photos of birds and boats and stories about wine. People like that because it’s about people, not bankers and banks and clowns on TV.

I am open to suggestions.

I seek to cut back on my blogging activities even more. For the time being I will offer the usual blog templates along with the briefest commentary, if any, that my time (and motivation) permits.

Have a good day.

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