For someone like me who is “burdened by reality,” these are difficult days.

Save for the Fed liquidity pump on Friday and the People’s Bank of China’s new pumping policy earlier in the week, this week would have been a loser.

PetroBrazil (PBR +18.5% W/W) enjoyed the results of a new oilfield discovery.

Bear with me. This will be a quick Week In Review. I didn’t have much time to do this one – mostly because I spent half the day deciding whether or not I should even make the effort.

As it turns out, I am sure to have upset a few people.

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Global Economics Review

The US economy is a worsening picture. The fact that in 15 months, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has skyrocketed from $51 to $120, is clear indication the US economy is in deep trouble. Oil prices elsewhere in the world are as bad, which means that the global economy is also in deep trouble. Some traders are in denial. They mistakenly believe there can be a sustainable disconnect between capital markets and the economy.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Existing Home Sales report for March. The picture worsens.

US Durable Goods Orders for March are still falling.

US New Home Sales for March. The data is so bad, let’s review the Econoday report:

March's new home sales report is perhaps the most alarming yet of the housing recession, falling 8.5 percent from February to an annual rate of 526,000 -- the lowest rate since 1991. The year-on-year decline of 36.6 percent is the worst since 1981. Houses for sale fell back slightly in the month to 468,000 but when compared against the sales rate shows 11.0 months of supply, up from 10.2 months in February for the most bloated reading since 1981. Prices are plunging, down 6.8 percent in the month for a 13.3 percent year-on-year decrease -- the steepest decline since 1970.

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for April. The data is so bad, let’s review the Econoday report:

Consumer confidence is at its lowest point since the early 80s according to the consumer sentiment index from Reuters/University of Michigan which fell to 62.6 from a mid-month reading of 63.2. The index for March was 69.5.

So much for last week, which was another bad one. Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar:

US Economic Calendar.

Conference Board reading US Consumer confidence for April. It can’t be good if the U of Michigan reading was the lowest in 27 years.

US Govt advance reading of Q1 GDP. Nest month will be first adjustment, and the month following that will be the final adjustment. Along the line, the numbers are ridiculously biased estimates, and often quite different from the final figure, which is also an estimate. Unless the data is produced independently, it serves only as a talking point for cheerleaders of the Administration.

US Fed central bank monetary policy decision

US Personal Income and Outlays report for March. The widening gap between the wealthy and the rest in America, which skews these numbers, cannot hide the fact that consumers are becoming desperate, and more unhappy than at any time since 1982. This crisis is being et with the plan of the Administration and Congress to write free money to people in need, and for US retailers offering special discounts to those who spend their “found” money in these stores rather than pay down their debts, which would be the prudent thing to do.

US manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories for April. The factory sector is contracting despite a falling USD that helps exporters like Boeing. Factory jobs in America continue to be eliminated and sent abroad in a master plan that US bankers are financing.

US Construction Spending for March continues to fall because America is basically bankrupt.

US Jobs Report for April. Employment falls and unemployment builds. The money giveaway by the Administration and Congress is an attempt to get people working part-time in low paid jobs to give the appearance the jobs picture is improving. You know who will take credit (for something that doesn’t not exist).

US Factory Orders for March. When factory orders fell -1.3% in February, worse than the -0.6% estimate and showing a back-to-back decline with January which, together with five consecutive sub-50 reading for new orders in the ISM report, it can only be said that the US manufacturing sector is in dire straits, and spin-masters will do all they can to hide that fact.

The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.

Weekly International Economic Report .

The UK housing and construction industries are in serious trouble. The French and German business confidence has sunk. Japanese economic indexes are plummeting. The Bank of Canada cut its bank rate by 50 basis points because the economy is in a tailspin. Oil prices are at all-time records, up 140% in 15 months. Food shortages are causing riots around the world.

Yet bankers will tell you the crisis is over, and they continue to pay Talking Heads on Financial Entertainment Television, the worst of which is CNBC, to tell the great unwashed that Life is Beautiful.

Actually “… there will be no tank for Giosué; but you knew that already.” In the real world, life is not beautiful.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

For this week, 16 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 14 down.

Friday was a boost as all but Techs and Consumer Staples had a good day.

But this is still a Bear market.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The upcoming Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo (YHOO) takeover battle will commence soon.

As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY”

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 8 sectors down and 2 up. But the two (XLU +0.33% and XLE +0.25%) were up marginally.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IYZ	24.89	0.16	0.65%	3.79%	6.55%	7.89%	-14.67%	-0.36%	-22.58%	-22.49%
XLF	26.97	0.49	1.85%	1.97%	7.32%	9.41%	-4.90%	-0.77%	-17.52%	-27.91%
SMH	30.96	0.06	0.19%	1.84%	4.77%	8.52%	-1.28%	10.49%	-8.54%	-17.88%
XLY	32.36	0.32	1.00%	0.90%	4.93%	5.99%	0.50%	4.86%	-10.43%	-18.59%
SPY	139.60	1.28	0.93%	0.81%	4.67%	6.11%	-3.68%	4.93%	-8.06%	-6.61%
XLK	24.00	-0.29	-1.19%	0.76%	6.24%	7.10%	-8.12%	5.08%	-12.95%	-2.00%
IYH	64.04	0.52	0.82%	0.55%	0.60%	1.89%	-8.64%	-2.93%	-10.17%	-10.61%
XLI	38.37	0.53	1.40%	0.13%	5.30%	4.15%	-0.36%	7.18%	-4.72%	3.06%
XLP	27.93	-0.15	-0.53%	-0.11%	0.54%	0.11%	-1.62%	4.61%	-0.78%	0.94%
XLU	40.34	0.13	0.32%	-0.42%	2.65%	7.20%	-4.16%	5.66%	-1.56%	-4.63%
XLB	43.95	1.30	3.05%	-0.92%	4.47%	9.08%	6.42%	14.33%	3.41%	11.18%
XLE	82.88	0.96	1.17%	-1.00%	6.94%	12.72%	4.25%	20.64%	9.15%	29.18%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

This week and beyond, I will use XLK for the Tech sector and revert to a total of ten (10) sectors, but will also use Semiconductors (SMH), which is my bellwether on the economy.

This week there were 3 sectors above SPY and 7 below. I feel that the interventionists were actively buying SPY on Friday (+0.91%) to give it a boost (+0.81%) on the week.

Week over week, the worst performers were Energy (XLE -1.00%), Basic Materials (XLB -0.92%) and Utilities (XLU -0.42%).

The best were Telecom (IYZ +3.79%), Financials (XLF +1.97%) and Semi’s (SMH +1.84%).

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PTR	149.50	-0.23	-0.15%	18.51%	15.56%	16.77%	-13.91%	1.13%	-39.89%	28.26%
STO	34.70	0.41	1.20%	2.66%	7.20%	16.21%	11.08%	34.65%	3.21%	20.49%
TOT	82.20	0.78	0.96%	1.28%	6.33%	12.08%	-1.30%	13.04%	5.43%	10.26%
SLB	102.74	0.80	0.78%	0.87%	13.39%	19.94%	2.15%	32.23%	4.73%	35.42%
CVX	92.69	0.29	0.31%	-0.53%	4.38%	9.69%	-0.82%	13.29%	1.60%	18.35%
SU	115.13	2.36	2.09%	-0.93%	10.30%	17.72%	4.41%	28.82%	8.46%	40.63%
XOM	92.46	-0.14	-0.15%	-1.64%	4.33%	8.50%	-1.12%	10.15%	0.97%	15.69%
PBR	123.33	1.28	1.05%	-1.72%	9.29%	22.23%	3.80%	17.88%	40.50%	133.54%
RIG	154.73	2.87	1.89%	-2.50%	6.65%	15.32%	6.02%	21.73%	32.44%	80.57%
CEO	173.23	-0.56	-0.32%	-2.85%	9.11%	15.16%	3.47%	19.06%	-10.20%	98.70%
IMO	57.23	1.03	1.83%	-2.92%	7.76%	7.88%	4.21%	17.15%	13.51%	46.26%
ECA	81.92	1.77	2.21%	-5.00%	4.66%	9.43%	17.68%	29.58%	23.02%	51.00%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PKX	123.86	1.86	1.52%	6.35%	2.17%	4.58%	-15.43%	-5.82%	-29.13%	14.76%
BHP	84.50	1.98	2.40%	4.37%	9.67%	28.89%	20.01%	33.24%	2.55%	68.16%
NUE	75.73	2.28	3.10%	2.45%	10.33%	9.66%	30.64%	37.77%	21.62%	13.27%
DOW	40.86	1.20	3.03%	2.20%	6.10%	11.46%	5.45%	12.53%	-6.41%	-11.31%
RTP	500.80	10.81	2.21%	2.14%	8.29%	22.89%	19.32%	35.46%	42.47%	99.32%
MT	88.96	-0.29	-0.32%	0.18%	7.31%	10.73%	16.44%	41.25%	12.69%	63.98%
RIO	37.92	0.59	1.58%	-0.03%	5.86%	11.04%	15.93%	36.85%	13.23%	-10.63%
GGB	37.13	-0.58	-1.54%	-0.35%	3.31%	21.50%	29.37%	50.51%	27.38%	81.92%
VCP	30.98	0.15	0.49%	-1.37%	-1.37%	10.01%	4.31%	17.62%	3.16%	52.99%
AA	35.72	0.87	2.50%	-1.49%	1.62%	-1.08%	-1.13%	16.39%	-6.95%	-0.11%
TS	52.08	-0.84	-1.59%	-4.09%	2.86%	6.66%	17.32%	37.12%	1.19%	9.90%
TCK	45.47	-1.17	-2.51%	-4.53%	-0.11%	8.06%	25.47%	39.86%	-7.37%	-41.97%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	84.84	1.84	2.22%	7.86%	10.38%	15.48%	-2.05%	10.14%	-11.63%	-10.40%
ABB	30.07	-0.18	-0.60%	7.51%	13.13%	12.58%	4.99%	24.00%	3.55%	54.44%
GE	33.33	0.52	1.58%	1.96%	3.99%	-8.96%	-9.33%	-1.97%	-17.01%	-5.87%
FLR	161.47	4.42	2.81%	0.86%	8.04%	15.05%	11.82%	33.50%	-3.94%	65.34%
TXT	61.39	0.65	1.07%	0.69%	7.40%	12.39%	-8.11%	15.05%	-7.93%	19.07%
UTX	72.68	-0.02	-0.03%	0.23%	4.53%	6.02%	-3.36%	-0.10%	-4.01%	6.82%
UPS	72.72	-0.05	-0.07%	-0.64%	2.58%	0.64%	5.15%	3.93%	-3.00%	-0.38%
HON	60.49	0.18	0.30%	-0.82%	6.14%	8.31%	0.98%	3.85%	2.30%	12.04%
ERJ	41.76	0.08	0.19%	-1.09%	-2.16%	6.34%	-7.47%	1.90%	-13.00%	-12.07%
FDX	94.46	-0.29	-0.31%	-2.33%	1.68%	3.50%	9.63%	5.00%	-8.56%	-12.63%
CAT	82.25	0.43	0.53%	-3.55%	9.96%	6.69%	16.45%	24.75%	10.15%	12.32%
MMM	77.82	-1.31	-1.66%	-6.13%	-0.83%	-0.17%	-5.91%	3.06%	-9.61%	1.10%

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	43.20	1.23	2.93%	7.22%	12.35%	15.26%	3.72%	1.69%	-21.92%	-47.59%
DIS	32.36	0.42	1.31%	3.29%	7.22%	4.39%	1.63%	12.83%	-6.07%	-8.38%
BBBY	33.43	0.44	1.33%	3.21%	10.59%	14.84%	17.88%	13.86%	0.66%	-19.70%
BC	16.35	0.16	0.99%	1.87%	2.19%	1.43%	-3.37%	-4.39%	-19.06%	-46.76%
NKE	68.74	0.68	1.00%	1.25%	3.07%	4.37%	8.63%	22.75%	7.68%	28.20%
TM	102.06	1.96	1.96%	0.50%	6.29%	-1.67%	-4.13%	0.06%	-3.49%	-16.98%
BDK	67.58	-0.31	-0.46%	-1.10%	1.95%	3.22%	-3.36%	-3.43%	-24.69%	-26.81%
TGT	53.98	1.08	2.04%	-1.14%	3.87%	8.63%	9.03%	4.61%	-13.37%	-10.81%
EBAY	31.30	0.09	0.29%	-1.29%	1.39%	3.57%	-3.66%	16.66%	-11.21%	-7.31%
GOL	15.00	0.22	1.49%	-1.32%	-3.35%	-6.83%	-37.47%	-17.72%	-41.45%	-49.51%
WHR	76.40	2.51	3.40%	-6.84%	-7.65%	-10.54%	-4.36%	-1.77%	-8.99%	-28.86%
CCL	39.45	-0.30	-0.75%	-7.13%	-0.68%	-0.63%	-9.64%	-4.73%	-16.82%	-18.74%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KR	26.39	0.15	0.57%	5.56%	10.46%	4.89%	2.80%	4.31%	-8.27%	-11.77%
PDA	52.72	-0.63	-1.18%	4.05%	12.41%	13.62%	9.54%	27.37%	-0.57%	74.22%
WMT	57.65	0.20	0.35%	2.38%	5.20%	10.61%	22.92%	19.88%	31.38%	18.11%
PG	66.55	-0.28	-0.42%	-0.92%	-4.93%	-4.16%	-7.97%	1.90%	-6.73%	4.75%
KO	59.33	-0.92	-1.53%	-1.30%	-1.59%	-2.64%	-2.88%	1.58%	-3.21%	14.67%
WAG	35.49	-0.33	-0.92%	-1.31%	-1.64%	-5.18%	-4.95%	3.53%	-11.23%	-22.81%
DEO	81.93	-0.49	-0.59%	-1.42%	-1.03%	-0.23%	-3.68%	3.91%	-9.41%	-2.28%
BUD	47.15	-0.14	-0.30%	-1.67%	-2.50%	-1.77%	-8.68%	-0.21%	-9.80%	-7.37%
ABV	73.65	0.05	0.07%	-4.09%	-5.03%	-3.24%	1.61%	10.06%	-4.78%	23.14%
PEP	67.62	-0.38	-0.56%	-4.22%	-5.29%	-5.51%	-10.19%	-1.89%	-6.06%	0.96%
WFMI	31.19	-0.48	-1.52%	-5.34%	-2.65%	-3.97%	-21.55%	-16.94%	-34.49%	-34.90%
SBUX	15.86	-0.13	-0.81%	-13.24%	-8.11%	-6.98%	-17.87%	-19.33%	-39.40%	-50.19%

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVS	50.60	0.50	1.00%	5.88%	6.57%	-0.71%	-7.28%	0.72%	-2.09%	-13.31%
WLP	51.07	2.07	4.22%	5.43%	11.02%	18.14%	-41.30%	-31.62%	-35.06%	-35.22%
AET	43.91	1.65	3.90%	5.07%	7.05%	3.22%	-22.48%	-16.52%	-21.58%	-2.42%
GSK	45.12	1.00	2.27%	4.16%	6.04%	6.72%	-10.07%	-3.84%	-11.09%	-23.25%
JNJ	67.31	-0.06	-0.09%	1.20%	1.98%	4.88%	2.12%	7.76%	5.25%	4.07%
BMY	22.15	-0.06	-0.27%	0.23%	2.07%	3.12%	-15.23%	-3.57%	-24.56%	-25.42%
PFE	20.43	0.39	1.95%	-0.20%	-0.10%	-0.34%	-10.82%	-9.64%	-15.89%	-22.38%
DNA	71.97	-0.95	-1.30%	-1.03%	-6.28%	-10.04%	6.78%	6.17%	-3.63%	-11.58%
MDT	49.42	-0.04	-0.08%	-1.14%	-0.76%	3.26%	-0.16%	7.16%	3.63%	-7.76%
AMGN	42.25	-0.15	-0.35%	-1.90%	-1.77%	1.93%	-9.33%	-12.24%	-26.28%	-31.51%
NVO	67.05	0.05	0.07%	-5.83%	-4.62%	0.48%	5.09%	14.26%	-43.11%	-32.78%
UNH	33.99	0.40	1.19%	-8.75%	-5.24%	-1.19%	-40.02%	-32.02%	-29.96%	-35.80%

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

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