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April 13, 2008
Week in Review #15 (2008-04-13)
Capital markets are on tenterhooks. General Electric (GE), arguably America’s most impressive private sector company, is under fire for misleading the country with its recent statements that earning’s expectations would be met, when they were not, and that the economy and the financial system is in good shape, when a couple weeks later they are saying it is not.
So this week General Electric and its CEO Jeff Immelt are in the spotlight. When the news broke near the end of the week, the equity market was crushed and capital fled to the supposedly safe-haven of short-term US Treasury bills and notes.
On Friday, GE stock dropped -12.8%, causing a loss W/W of -14.7%. The S&P 500 futures plunged -2.0% on Friday, ending the week down -2.6%. Clearly the Bulls have lost the leadership of the General. If the equity market is to stave collapse, the pretence that Goldilocks is alive and well must be saved and new leadership step up in the equity market.
What could that possibly be? Let’s see; the Financials (XLF) were down -4.7% this week, next worst performer of all the market sectors. Hmmm, the Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) also were hammered -3.8%, so the American consumer is not spending enough to protect the consumer economy.
So, you have the manufacturers, financials and consumers all leading the market south, and only Energy (love those record high prices at the fuel pumps) up +0.3% for the XLE and Healthcare (need I say more) (IYH -0.83%) trying to support a sinking ship.
You have been entertained by GE’s CNBC long enough to conclude whether your experience in listening to “personalities” is worth it. Is it time to turn Financial TV’s version of a Reality Show off the air and get serious by studying capital market price trends and cycles?
This week, many of you have been listening to the concerns of the leaders of the European Economic Community (EEC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They, and others like them, are only saying what many of you already know. To wit: Just because market prices are high, doesn’t mean that economic value exists and that there will not be a reversion to the mean.
Obviously, you all learned that with the 2005 US housing market, and subsequent events.
We still need these bankers to come clean as to the value of their holdings of securitized mortgage-backed asset paper. Our portfolios don’t operate well in fantasy land.
If the financial backing is missing, then the bankers’ securities need to be fully written down. So far, the best estimates are that such write-downs are perhaps 25% of what they need to be. Also, the house foreclosures situation is worsening, and US home-owners and investors in the housing market are likely to take from -15% to -33% additional loss of market prices before price and value are back in balance. That situation hurts the banks more than anybody because the extent of their write-downs will need to be much higher, putting many of the banks into a position of insolvency.
The airline industry is being taken down by high fuel costs, but at least they have the reasonable expectation that people need to fly in a commercial aircraft in the years ahead. But do the people need banks? That’s a question the bankers ought to ask the telephone companies that relied on copper wires and outrageous long-distance billing until fiber optic cable and wireless technologies leveled the playing field. Now any of you can call me in the Bahamas free.
Yes, I think the bankers are in fear that the same concerns and technological solutions will lead to a global credit union or community trust. Aha, now you are starting to think, hey why not a Cara Community Trust in the Bahamas?
Well, it just might happen.
A week ago, I made the following comments that should be extended:
… it goes without saying that the new unwritten rule on Wall Street is that no investment bank of any large size is going to be allowed to fail; that the People’s money, not the shareholders capital, will stand behind the company debts and the mistakes of executive management. That offends me because I stand up for social equity, not socialism.This latest situation in Washington is simply mind-boggling to the owners of capital in America who once had a measure of faith in their capital market. Now it is apparent that the market will be played by Henry’s Rules, and Mr. Moral Hazard had the arrogance to not even show his face at these crucial hearings. That’s not right.
Careful planning on his part had Henry Paulson in China working on a deal that would help Wall Street investment bankers, which is the flow of funds from Chinese investors, public and private, into America, public and private, via investment bankers. I’ll say this again, once: Henry Paulson, as Secretary of the Treasury of the US, and the individual who was integral to the Bear Stearns-JP Morgan-Fed deal, had an absolute and total obligation to stand before Congress and give testimony as to what he did to save the financial system of America that others who gave testimony stated was so critical at the time.
Paulson knew that Rep. Senator Chuck Grassley wanted the moral hazard issue addressed. He knew that Rep. Congressman Dr. Ron Paul and Dem. Senator Bob Menendez were going to demand answers to the committees they are members of. Yes, the China mission was important. The Senate hearing was more important.
Life is all about choices. Had one of Paulson’s parents passed, he would not have gone to China. The gravity of the Congressional hearings was such that the Treasury Secretary had an obligation to stand there and give the full truth to the American people. He turtled.
He did it to protect the Fed and the Administration and the increased role he wants them to play in the US government. I say enough is enough from Mr. Moral Hazard. There is no need to have a Federal Reserve System, which manages the People’s money, under the control of private bankers. It was a ridiculous notion to begin with, and now is leading the capital market into an abyss that could possibly result in an economic depression and a very weak state of the union.
There is also no need for the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (aka PPT) to have any power whatsoever other than being one of several policy study organizations within the US government.
These are not principles on which the US was founded, and the imbalance that Paulson is recommending clearly conflicts with public policy from Congress that leads to legislation with checks and balances the People need.
At the end of the day, what goes around comes around. The People whose ancestors fought for America, and those who have recently joined it for opportunity and protection, will have their needs met. If they don’t, let’s call a spade a spade; in that unlikely event, America could no longer be called a democracy, and the bankers will have won.
Global Economics Review
The US economy probably went recessive in December. The weight of the evidence, ie, the economic data, has been piling up and can no longer be denied.
Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.
US Consumer Credit Report for FebruaryUS Pending Home Sales Index for February
US Chain Store Sales for March
US International Trade data for February
The Weekly (April 5) Jobless Claims Report which has been skyrocketing in recent weeks.
US Import and Export Price Data for March which has been skyrocketing in recent months.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for April which has been plummeting since the start of 2007.
So much for last week. Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar:
US Retail Sales for MarchUS Business Inventories for February
US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March
US Housing Starts for March and the ripple effect.
The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.
Weekly International Economic Report .
…the economies of Europe and Japan are almost as bad off as the US and are worsening week by week. I fully expect these economies to go into recession as well, which means that significantly more than 50 pct of the global economy will be in recession at the same time.The bad news gets worse because, as strong as the growth is in the emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), these markets are not unaffected by the others. I expect serious declines in the BRIC economic growth rates, and significant increases in their inflation rates, this year.
As I say, positive economic news is now infrequent, and the same is happening around the world. The already dangerous element of stagflation is now compounded by illiquid credit markets. The capital that is being injected by the Fed into the US market is merely replacing illiquid US mortgage-backed assets (now held by the Fed) with liquid funds that are being used to buy commodities and foreign securities, which is continuing to pressure the $USD.
Treasury Secretary Paulson is trying to mask the problem by having the Chinese and investors from other foreign nations buy US private and public market securities. His program only wins if Stagflation continues. The shame of it is that in the next business and economic cycle, wealth will be built by Americans domestically and the USD will strengthen. Then, Americans will see they sold off sound assets at the cycle bottom and received foreign currency when it was over-priced.
Paulson is a powerful banker without question, but he is sure proving he isn’t a good economist. I suspect he’s a better Trojan Horse than many people give him credit for.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
“Jock” is on sabbatical.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA stockcharts.com chart
For this week, 7 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 23 down; a reversal of fortune from the prior week.
Friday was a killer as 29 of the Dow 30 were down and the DJIA/S&P500 each lost -2.04% and the NASDAQ Composite dumped -2.61%. The selling was constant through the day; there was no week-ending rally. No lipstick for this pig.
It was anticipated, this being a Bear market and all.
In the last WIR in this space, I wrote:
This was a week spurred by a single day record gain, April 1, the biggest move since April 1, 2038, signaling the end of the Great Depression… By the end of the week, the DJIA and S&P 500 stocks were up +3.22% and +4.20% respectively… In fact it was a mixed up week. Monday was generally firm, and then came Tuesday, rocketing about +150 Dow 30 points at the open, trapping the shorts, who caved in over the next 6 ½ hours of trading into Wed. morning, with a further +300 point rise in the DJIA. The rest of the week saw a lot of selling, however. Over the final 18 ½ hours of trading in NY, the Dow 30 dropped about -100 points…But, really, the week was all about Tuesday, probably a forerunner to the testimony in the Congressional meetings over the next couple days in which it would become clear that Bear Stearns and JP Morgan had not only received a govt guarantee of some $29 billion of Bear Stearns illiquid and possibly dubious assets, but that the two had received a like amount in short-term (hopefully) borrowings from the Fed… So, here we are up on average +4.2% W/W, with the Financials (XLF) up +7.0%, but I don’t think the public feels elated.
When the US equity market rockets up on the sick Financials immediately before the most important Congressional hearing in recent memory, you have to pull your offers, stand back and when the interventionists have no more ammunition left you strike back. That’s when you sell and say thank you for the extra funds in your portfolio.
This market will only stay up as long as portfolio managers use Other People’s Money to try to stem the selling tide. These managers are trapped. If equity markets sink to a price level approximating true value, there will be lots of so-called professional managers on the outside looking for work.
I say that OPM is needed because the Administration, the Fed and Wall Street bankers are tapped out. Any more use of the People’s Treasury, and Crude Oil will be headed toward $200 and the $USD to 50 cents. How’s that going to help the economy from tail-spinning into the first Great Depression of this millennium?
So, just as I have been saying since I started blogging, financial services amounts to one massive conflict of interest. That’s the truth, so why are so many of you in denial? You probably allow it because you are enslaved to debt. The rest of you, especially those who are underwater in their home mortgages with no place to turn, admit that you are chattels of the system. You thought you were Americans, Brits, Aussies or whatever, but really your banker owns you and you don’t like me saying it.
The upside to this is that having recognized a problem, you can start to look for solutions, which I wrote about on Wednesday in the Community Chat:
ADDENDUM 1: How? Try private Swiss banks and brokers, forex funds, bullion coins and bars, collectibles, jewelry, interests in debt-free private corporations, economic real estate that has iron-clad mortgages with Triple-A tenants, and on and on. These are alternatives that even in the short run are superior to worrying about a screwed-up credit-based financial system.The problem as I see it is that every time there is a collapse of a major financial services company -- we have been watching a series of them from Japan, Australia, Europe, UK, Canada, the US -- is that clients get screwed. Yes, they may recover some or possibly all their capital, but at what cost?
Even if you wish to seek the protection of a private bank (one that does not act as principal and that is well protected against failure of some or many of its clients) there is a counter-party risk in trading with highly leveraged market makers, which is the reason why these private bank accounts are in so much cash today.
I am working on a white paper that covers the reason why this past week I signed an agreement to set up a pooled forex trading account at a Swiss brokerage house.
I don't do collectibles, jewelry or real estate, but between bullion and forex, there is no need to trade securities until after the equity market adjusts to the risks that exist today, which are not adequately priced into it. Even if I manage to find undervalued equities, I cannot be sure what happens to the price if banks and broker-dealers start to fail. I cannot trust a bank or broker-dealer to tell me the truth while facing calamity, which is why I say that at the heart of the problem is conflict of interest.
The Forex trading fund I am now affiliated with (my CFO is the Fund’s Chairman) has excelled for the past two years. The Fund trades principally Great Britain Pound Sterling/Japanese Yen (“GBP/JPY”) as well as Great Britain Pound Sterling/US Dollar (“GBP/USD”) and Euro/Japanese Yen (“EUR/JPY”).
The results over 24 months, as I understand it, are as follows:
Monthly average gross return = +5.69%
Average annual gross return = +87.57%
Monthly standard deviation = +3.90%
Sharpe ratio = 1.35
% positive months = 87.5%
Worst month = -1.40%
Best month = +13.80%
In my view this is professional cash management of the highest order.
For those who are interested and may qualify, I inserted a statement at the end of the blog. I had intended, and may still do a white paper on managing cash as an asset class, but my time is short and other events this week have been very distracting.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 lost -3.41% and -3.58% respectively.
As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY”
I think you can forget Yahoo (YHOO) from that list because it still appears that Microsoft (MSFT) is zeroing in for the acquisition. That’s two weeks now for the Yahoo Board to decide if they are going to accept a $40 billion offer. I don’t know why not? Nobody else has got that kind of money.
I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other. This week, the Tech ETF (XLK) and the Semi-conductor ETF (SMH) dropped -2.80% and -2.92% respectively while the SPY was down -2.57%. But on Friday, XLK and SMH dropped -2.76% and -3.08% respectively, while the sick Financials (XLF) and the SPY were down -1.84% and -1.95% respectively.
What traders need to do in the upcoming earnings season is focus on the Tech stocks in the non-financial Nasdaq 100 index. If these companies are beating expectations, there may be a lull in the market sell-off; but if they don’t, I suspect the market is on a fast elevator ride down.
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
This week, there were 8 sectors down and 2 up. But the two (XLU +0.33% and XLE +0.25%) were up marginally.
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data:
SPY Weekly data:
SPY Daily data:
The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
Individual Sector ETF Review
This week, there were 8 sectors (5 ETF’s) above SPY and 3 below. The worst performers were XLP, IYH and XLK. The best were XLF, SMH, and XLB.
I think I had some bad data in here last week. Sorry; this is a template and I zip right by stuff sometimes. It’s the only way I can write a book in a day. (LOL
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:
XLE Weekly data:
XLE Daily data:
XLE had a W/W gain of +0.25% to close at 77.50. That’s shocking given that the $WTIC jumped +$3.91/bbl to close the week at 110.14, hitting a high on Thursday of 112.20.
Norway’s Statoil (STO +4.1%) plus a couple Canadians (SU +2.3% and ECA +2.1%) were up, but PTR -4.6% and SLB -0.83% (-2.2% on Friday) were losers. Exxon (XOM) had a bad Friday (-1.0%).
Can Crude Oil go higher? I think it is over-bought here with the Daily RSI-7 over 70 and the Weekly approaching it. Yes, the price could go much higher, but the long-term bigger picture view is that economic slowdown will hold down the price as much as the high price will cause economic slowdown. The spec rally, I think, has lots to do with stories from the Middle East political situation. Traders today believe that the US Administration is capable of misdeeds in worsening that conflict.
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
XLB Daily data:
This week, Basic Materials (XLB -1.96%) was hurt by Friday’s loss of -1.52%, closing at 42.07.
BHP (+5.2% W/W) continues to ride the rumors of massive Chinese investment in the company. Some of the steelmakers were hit: PKX -9.6%, NUE and MT -2.7%.
A week ago I wrote that “… the gold bugs and the Wall St Bulls believe that prices are going to the moon. That’s what makes a market”. This week, the goldminers’ index ($XAU -1.62%) was down.
Speaking of steelmakers, and my usual thoughts on bought-and-paid-for media, I am shocked, but not surprised, that the former Stelco CEO (and ex-Brascan/Brookfield Exec VP) Courtney Pratt, who managed to put Canada’s premier steelmaker into bankruptcy court even as the company was earning all-time record high income (on a premise that turned out wrong), is re-writing history.
I just received this mail from someone who had expert knowledge of the Stelco affair:
“I shook my head in disbelief yesterday when I read an ad in the Hamilton Spectator promoting the new book by Courtney Pratt and Larry Gaudet. The name of the book is "Into The Blast Furnace", "The Forging Of A CEO'S CONSCIENCE".
The full colour ad goes on to read:
"6,000 jobs and 10,000 pensions were on the line when Stelco Inc. went into bankruptcy protection in early 2004. Businessman Courtney Pratt was hired as CEO to deal with the mess. Read exclusive excerpts from his new book only in The Hamilton Spectator. Pratt and writer Larry Gaudet detail two turbulent years of backroom deals and high emotions around the fate of Hamilton's steel plant.
April 12, 2008: Read exclusive excerpts only in the Hamilton Spectator."
It will be interesting to read the excerpt. I'll report on it later.”
I know a book that should be tossed into that blast furnace and I figure I know a couple thousand members of the Steelworkers Local 1005 who would line up for the honor. I could only imagine what they’d like to do with the author.
Everytime I see this stuff, I think I’ll go back to the Money Quotes list that I gave you in the Sat. community Chat. For example, here’s a few that come to mind when thinking about the prospects of fair and objective journalism by the ex-Stelco CEO:
27. “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie.” - Joseph Goebbels37. “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It is simply too painful to acknowledge - even to ourselves - that we’ve been so credulous.” - Carl Sagan
38. “Only the small secrets need to be protected. The big ones are kept secret by public incredulity.” - Marshall McLuhan
46. “The business of the journalist is to destroy the truth, to lie outright, to pervert, to vilify, to fawn at the feet of Mammon, and to sell his country and his race for his daily bread. You know it and I know it, so what folly is this toasting an independent press? We are the tools and vassals of rich men behind the scenes.
47. They pull the strings and we dance.” - John Swinton, New York Times Chief of Staff
60. “The great mass of people will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one. What luck for rulers that men do not think.” - Adolf Hitler
100. “When you control opinion, as corporate America controls opinion in the United States by owning the media, you can make the masses believe almost anything you want, and guide them as you please.” - Gore Vidal
I’m waiting to get a book view done by Local 1005. That will tell what happened to them and the bondholders and shareholders, all of whom got screwed by the author’s former employer, in my opinion.
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:
XLI Weekly data:
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLI (Industrials) plunged -5.10% this week to close at 36.44. Friday’s loss was -3.90%. As you, General Electric was leading the retreat. GE plunged -12.79% on Friday and -14.67%.
There is an issue of credibility here. It’s not for me to counsel the GE CEO Jeff Immelt, but the truth is I have constantly raised the issue in this blog that he is a “sunshine boy” – never saw a quarter that didn’t look up, an employee at CNBC who couldn’t cheerlead enough, and so forth.
Here is the problem. I like Jeff Immelt. He cleaned up a lot of the mess left behind by Jack Welch, Fortune Magazine’s “Manager of the Century”, 1999. I wonder if Fortune feels the same today. I know GE shareholders probably don’t.
Jeff Immelt’s company (a Cara 100) is a great one, much stronger today than it was in the 1990’s, much of it due to Immelt. But economies often go bad, and credit markets often go bad (and GE is a major player in both), so the fall-out is not-unexpected. GE remains a Cara 100 company. The price is just closer to the Accumulation zone.
Here’s the important point: CEO’s are like Commander-in-chiefs; if they aren’t boosters, they aren’t employed. More conflict of interest to investors/traders who are in need of facts. So, to resolve this situation, large corporations ought to decide to whether it’s prudent to sent their Chief Financial Officer and Chief Information Officer jointly to make all disclosures to the media. Then, just maybe, a Buy doesn’t mean hold, and a hold mean a sell. You know, aren’t we all sick and tired of the games on reality TV?
Anyway, I figured something was up a week ago. There is, you know, always going to be insider trading. It’s illegal, but it’s human nature to beat the next guy. So, I watch the prices, and had this to say after the moonshot 70-year record beating performance of the US equity market just a week and a half ago. Tell me if I didn’t smell a rat here in last week’s WIR?
Funny how GE gained just +2.59% while Fluor (FLR) continues to rumble (+8.93%), up from $105 in Feb to a recent $150. Isn’t that a sight for my dyslexic eyes? I had to type it twice before I read it properly.
Now, you know I’m not dyslexic (I didn’t want to make light of such a horrible condition), but I wanted to make the point hit home. Not to put too fine a point on it, but GE dropped -$60 billion market cap in a couple days.
Stick with me. We’ll get this thing figured out one day.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:
XLY Weekly data:
XLY Daily data:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) dropped -3.78% to close at 30.84. A week ago, XLY “roared, up +4.98% W/W to 32.05”.
Talk about volatility. Does anybody other than day traders think this is good for the capital markets?
Anyway, I let you know what I was thinking a week ago:
There was a loss (-0.47%) on Friday though. Same-store sales will be reported this coming week, and most of the retailers will be reporting March sales. I just wonder how bad it’s going to be.Except for Dillard’s (DDS +8.0% on Friday) and Circuit City (up +6.2% on Friday), the last couple days this week took some big hits in my Retailer Monitor.
That’s not to say there’s any insider trading going on. (LOL) It could actually be real investigative analysts figuring out that “no money for home mortgage payments” also means “no shoes for baby”.
The volatility in this group leads me to believe it has become the home of day traders, something like the Internet stocks of 1999. It’s hard to believe that stocks like Brunswick Corp (BC) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are up and down by 8-10% W/W.
Let’s see, BC down -8.1%, BBBY down -4.3%, BDK -6.2%.
But how about those moonshots from a week ago Friday, DDS and CC? This W/W, DDS and CC plunged -8.9% and -18.4% respectively. So, Mr SEC, how is it stocks can rally on no news +8.0% and +6.2% in a single day, which was a shocker to me, only to plunge the following week by -8.9% and -18.4%?
Maybe, if Mr SEC wasn’t telling stories to Congress this week, he might be on the ball and investigate! But, sorry, let’s not get carried away with the man’s competence. You know what I had to say about him in the last WIR after I watched his testony:
…the new reality (illiquidity) vs 1-800-HOPE. Donald Trump casting is looking for actors for his new Apprentice Show. We saw several auditions in Congress this week. The world was watching.Getting practice for the Summer Olympics, I was rating the nonsense… Dimon 9.9, Geithner 9.6, Bernanke 9.2, Cox 10.0,… It doesn’t get better than the awesome performance of the simplest questions… Mr. Cox, do you know what city this is? How many fingers am I holding up?...
I’m sorry, but this is painful to endure. On the one hand, I see this kind of stuff and then I have to deal with an SEC that’s in place to protect the very people Mr. Cox has been seated with in his last few Congressional appearances.
I said this recently, the SEC needs to work for the People. It needs a Commissioner who when being questioned in Congress will agree that there are huge problems and that he either resign or stand on his chair and shout to the world that he’s not going to take it any more.
During the day his agency goes after Martha Stewart and Conrad Black, both of whom built immense value and wealth for all of us, and then goes home to bed with HB&B. Meanwhile, the People are getting ripped off, not just in billions, but in trillions. It’s not right: they know it; we know it.
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:
XLP Weekly data:
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, Consumer Staples (XLP) lost -2.08% to close at 27.78.
Wal-Mart (WMT +0.74% W/W) was one of a few Dow stocks that were up on the week. But this sector had a lot of losers: SBUX -6.7%, PDA -6.0% and WFMI -5.5%.
Sometimes when “baby has no shoes”, there are children whose parents cannot afford the necessities of life. Even in America.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:
IYH Weekly data:
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
IYH (healthcare) lost -0.83% W/W to close at 63.66, losing -1.49% on Friday.
Amgen (AMN +3.6%) was up this week, but some of the Big Pharma (NVS -8.9% and GSK -6.1%) got hammered.
Last couple weeks I wrote a bit about the Biotechs. I didn’t follow up this week.
In any case, there are five well-known ETFs for Biotech: BBH (+2.0% W/W), XBI (+6.2% W/W), PBE (+4.3% W/W), IBB (+5.6% W/W), and FBT (+7.7% W/W). Average them out, and that’s not a bad month this week!!
This week, I guess two of the five (XBI and PBE) had good performance. I’d just be careful if this broad market turns.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:
XLF Weekly data:
XLF Daily data:
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, the Financials (XLF -4.67%) turned south. But the prior week XLF gained +6.94% following the previous Friday’s gain of +6.02%). So traders in the Banks and Broker-Dealers are still up over the past 11 sessions.
(From WIR #14) And why not? Henry Paulson, the People’s keeper of the Treasury, has ensured his Friends & Family on Wall Street are well treated. You know who’s paying for all this, right? …The volatility in this sector is even greater than Mom & Pop’s retailers. But I’ll tell you, XLF is not Mom & Pop’s bankers… This week, can you say, without smiling, that UBS can write down $19 billion in dubious assets they own and tell the public they have to quickly raise $12 billion in new equity (because the ECB isn’t as friendly as the Fed), and the stock still rockets +21.2% W/W. Image that; these are the free markets that price the value of assets. (LOL)… What happened here is that the Fed has now become the world’s banker… Did you take note of the biggest gains W/W on Wall Street. Yes, you might have guessed, they were the biggest problems: Lehman, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, which were up +16.3%, +15.8%, and +15.6% W/W respectively (but not respectfully I might add).
Well this week, the biggest losers in XLF were LEH -9.5%, MS -8.3%, JPM -6.7% and MER -5.6%.
Wouldn’t you think it was important if all registered and affiliated staff in these firms actually had to report to the public collectively the amount of stock they are buying and selling in their own firms? The public should be able to track that (Cara) metric every day or at least every week. The data is as easy to collect and report electronically as is the XLF.
Why is it that they get to see our orders, but we get no glimpse of theirs? Since they are our advisors, it should be the other way around!
It’s like the former Chief Surgeon during Vietnam said to me in the washroom while attending an international medical informatics conference in the 1970’s: Why are we washing our hands after the event? (LOL, but you get my point)
The owner of capital who employs a servant should know what the servant is doing, and not the other way around. Ours is the information that should be kept private and confidential.
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data:
SMH Weekly data:
SMH Daily data:
Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLK Monthly data:
XLK Weekly data:
XLK Daily data:
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Semi-conductors (SMH) lost -2.92% W/W, while Technology (XLK) lost -2.80% W/W. The semi’s had SanDisk (SNDK) up again, but only by +2.2% after a week earlier rocketing up +21.5% W/W.
This is what I had to say two weeks ago about SNDK:
SNDK which was a huge loser a week ago (-10.7%) was in recovery mode (+3.5%) after the very good and hugely popular California high-tech writer John Dvorak called it a turn-around. John apparently also liked Sigma Designs (SIGM). I too like both these companies, but a Bear market is a challenging time to buy them… Bear markets are characterized by lower lows and lower highs, despite in many cases improving fundamentals, like book-to-bill ratios. If you are going to trade stocks (even buy-and-hold trades), then you need to look at the whole picture: fundamentals, quant and technicals, and macro economics…. But, I do admit there are a handful (not that I could lift them) of really good analysts and writers, and John Dvorak is one of them.
SNDK is not going to the moon. I love the company, but I don’t need to say more about the stock.
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYZ Monthly data:
IYZ Weekly data:
IYZ Daily data:
Telecom (IYZ) lost -3.19% W/W to 23.36.
AT&T (T) lost -3.1% W/W, while Verizon (VZ) dropped -4.7%.
There is no defensive sector in a Bear market. Not even sparkling dividends help the stock price when traders line up to sell.
Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLU Monthly data:
XLU Weekly data:
XLU Daily data:
XLU (Utilities) gained +0.33% W/W to 39.30, after a week earlier gaining +4.09%.
Exelon (EXC) dropped -0.84% W/W to 82.47.
A few weeks ago I wrote: “I still like the nuclear power generation companies. Exelon (EXC 79.75) was a Buy in the low 70’s in January, and may get back there again at some point.”
Then I wrote, “EXC closed at $80.40 and traded as high as 82.46 on Wed. I’d still like to buy it down in the low 70’s.” Last week, I added, “EXC closed down -0.80% to $79.76 after losing -1.38% on Friday. The price gained +4.3% a week ago, but I still wrote, “the chart shows me it will be profitable to wait… I’m still looking to buy it in the low 70’s. But this is not a rapid trader. It’s once every several years.”
Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 1.12 | 1.17 | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| 6 Month | 1.33 | 1.38 | 1.47 | 1.48 |
| 2 Year | 1.74 | 1.83 | 1.81 | 1.62 |
| 3 Year | 1.68 | 1.76 | 1.71 | 1.53 |
| 5 Year | 2.57 | 2.67 | 2.61 | 2.47 |
| 10 Year | 3.47 | 3.54 | 3.47 | 3.47 |
| 30 Year | 4.30 | 4.35 | 4.31 | 4.41 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.43 | 2.50 | 2.56 | 2.60 |
| 2yr AAA | 2.38 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| 2yr A | 2.70 | 2.81 | 3.06 | 2.63 |
| 5yr AAA | 2.96 | 3.01 | 3.07 | 3.02 |
| 5yr AA | 3.06 | 3.12 | 3.25 | 3.07 |
| 5yr A | 3.24 | 3.37 | 3.26 | 2.99 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.67 | 3.73 | 3.75 | 3.73 |
| 10yr AA | 3.51 | 3.50 | 3.72 | 3.70 |
| 10yr A | 3.86 | 3.88 | 4.16 | 4.21 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.47 | 4.46 | 4.67 | 4.65 |
| 20yr AA | 4.73 | 4.65 | 4.86 | 4.83 |
| 20yr A | 4.50 | 4.48 | 4.78 | 4.86 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.85 | 3.91 | 3.82 | 3.37 |
| 2yr A | 3.62 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.12 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.99 | 4.02 | 3.75 | 3.77 |
| 5yr AA | 4.35 | 4.49 | 4.20 | 4.11 |
| 5yr A | 4.97 | 5.24 | 4.90 | 4.73 |
| 10yr AAA | 4.90 | 4.96 | 5.67 | 4.94 |
| 10yr AA | 5.68 | 5.73 | 5.55 | 5.55 |
| 10yr A | 5.35 | 5.41 | 5.33 | 5.76 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.45 | 6.45 | 6.41 | 6.41 |
| 20yr AA | 6.09 | 6.12 | 5.90 | 6.42 |
| 20yr A | 6.32 | 6.31 | 6.28 | 6.28 |
Yields on the 10-year through 30-year Treasury bonds were flat this week, while the yields on T-Bills (-17bp) and 2-year notes (-7bp) showed a rush to safety.
As I wrote a week ago:
It’s hard to write about yields because the market is in silly season with interventionists swarming about. I say, if you are not in the room, you are out of the deal. Who knows what these guys have cooked up? All I know that the import prices are up about +7.0% Y/Y and the consumer is fed up.
I may be premature, but the charts are showing me a cyclic reversal in prices (down) and yields (up). That may not be allowed by the Fed to carry on too far, but you have been alerted to the possibility.
If it should play out, that would strengthen the USD and put the commodity prices under pressure. This is a time to be extra careful if you are long commodities.
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interest rates and bond yields.
Interactive Daily data charts:
Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
A week ago, I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw the dogs of the financial world jumping through hoops. I wrote:
In a great week for the Financials, what can anybody expect from Countrywide, Fannie and Freddie except greatness? CFC (+4.8%), FNM (+16.6%) and FRE (+8.5%) were all up this week because traders now figure these three plus the Federal Reserve Bank will all soon be departments of the Federal Government… What’s that about “full faith and trust”? Oh man, now somebody (Obama maybe?) is going to come along and spoil the party by saying that he’s sick and tired and won’t take it anymore. Then where will the Bulls be. I’ll give you a hint. They’ll be carrying placards on Wall Street demanding impeachment of President Obama, for betraying the principles of socialism. I say Wall St got into this mess and Wall St should get themselves out of it.
Well, this week, CFC dropped -10.85% (including -7.72% on Friday when credit tightened up). FNM dropped -14.17% and FRE dropped -14.89%.
Those are pretty sizeable losses for Moms & Pops whose pension plans are probably long – or will be until the class action lawsuits start.
Over the past 52 weeks, FRE is down 61.0%, FNM -51.6% and Mozilo’s baby CFC -84.3%. CEO Mozilo, btw, says he’s willing to take a cut in pay to how many millions? When thinking of cuts, I’m sure he’s glad his reign didn’t coincide with the French Revolution.
I’m sure many pensions have been wiped out over this mess at Countrywide. I wonder if somebody has drawn a price chart all the way down to $5, listing all the times Mozilo was making public statements his company was ok.
The TLT gained +0.49% W/W to close at 95.67.
There was a nice gain of +0.67% on Friday, again.
The TIP gained 0.55% W/W to close at 109.50.
There was a gain on Friday of +0.73%.
So these ETF’s have gained in a credit squeeze. Could be a tell.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts
SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:
TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:
TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:
LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
The $CRB gained +3.13% W/W to close at 407.45.
As I wrote two weeks ago, “unless the Fed or the Wall Street loan sharks come up with the vigorish to play this market, commodity prices sink. In a Bear market within a rapidly receding economy, with financial institution counter-party risks on the rise, buying commodity prices higher is a fool’s game. My opinion, but then this is my blog.”
This week, there was a noticeable pull-back in credit on Friday. Money flowed from the US and Cdn Dollar to Japan. On the same day, $CRB, $GOLD, $SILVER, and $XAU (goldminer stocks) dropped -0.26%, -0.52%, -1.96%, and -2.49% respectfully, I mean respectively. (LOL)
I bring it up again here “because every time there is a commodity cycle that peaks, even temporarily, there are hard feelings by (goldbugs).” But that’s what happens in Bear markets caused by credit contraction. This is the last car in the train over the hill and down into the valley.
It never fails.
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) lifted +3.68% W/W, which is hard to take for the already reeling US consumer. The contracts closed at $110.14, up +$3.91/bbl.
The high on Thursday hit 112.20/bbl.
“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”
The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 101.28 (amazing!), and the 200d MA is 88.27.
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
$GOLD gained +13.80/oz (+1.51% W/W) to 927.00.
The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 940.70, and the 200d MA is 805.66. So the current price is still below the 50-day MA.
Let’s see what next week brings.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
Spot silver chart for the week
This week, $SILVER lost -0.37% to close at 17.69. That’s not much, but it lost -1.03% a week ago too, and Friday’s lost was -1.96%.
Let me remind you that $SILVER was $21.44 just eighteen sessions ago.
For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 18.29, and the 200d MA is 15.01. The current price is still below the 50-day MA.
“If you are a Precious Metals Bull, let’s see if silver and gold can get above the 50-day MA before we start dancing. As far as I’m concerned, until that happens, the music has stopped.”
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
This week $PLAT lost -2.40 (-0.12%) to $2028.10. That’s four weeks of losses in a row.
The 50-day MA is 2023.95 and the 200-day MA is 1559.69. Note that the current price is barely above the 50-day MA, whereas the price of gold and silver is not.
Spot platinum chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
$PALLADIUM gained +30.90/oz W/W to 479.15. Where did that come from?
The 50-day MA is now 480.39 and the 200-day MA is 393.65. Note that the current price is now just a tad below the 50-day MA, but still below.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
This week, $COPPER lost -1.00 on the contracts to 394.45.
The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 373.30 and the 200-day MA is 344.49.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, the $XAU lost -1.62% W/W to 181.69, largely on Friday’s loss of -2.49%.
A week ago, under different circumstances I wrote, “Clearly, the gold bugs are hoping that the share prices precede the bullion price movement, as is typical.” Now they are hoping for an atypical move.
The 50d MA for $XAU is 186.844, and the 200d MA is 169.88. Note that the current price is below the 50-day MA and the 50-d MA is falling.
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Weekly data:
GDX Daily data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Forex Review
The $USD lost this week -0.26% to 71.78, after a loss of -0.45% on Friday.
The Pound was flat on Friday, but dropped a lot earlier in the week as the Bank of England lowered the bank rate, and the Euro up +0.55% after a gain on Friday of +0.47%, when the central bank (ECB) refused to lower its rate.
The Yen was up +0.58% after rallying Friday by +1.02% and the Loonie plunged -1.42%, including a drop on Friday of -0.38%.
Could be the Cdn central bank head appeasing his bosses in Washington. (LOL)
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:
The Euro ($XEU) gained +0.55% W/W to close at 1.5817, with a good day Friday (+0.47%) after Thursday’s holding steady on rates.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
The Pound was down to 197.16 (-1.07%) because of the rate cut on Thursday.
The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 198.30 and 201.37 respectively.
Weekly British Pound Index:
Daily British Pound Index:
Weekly Japanese Yen Index:
The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +0.58% W/W to 99.08. On Friday there was a huge gain (+1.02%).
The Yen’s 50-day MA is 96.60 and the 200-day MA is 89.67.
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) lost 1.42% this week to close Friday at 97.69.
The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.68 and 98.97 respectively, which means the current price (97.69) is below both. Could the $USD be strengthening as I surmise?
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
International Equity Markets Review
The FTSE (5495 to 5693 to 5947 to 5896), DAX (6314 to 6560 to 6763 to 6604) and CAC (4534 to 4696 to 4901 to 4798) all moved down this week.
The Nikkei 225 of Japan moved from 12820 to 13293 to 13324 in the past two weeks. The Shanghai Composite (3446 to 3493 was quiet), Hong Kong Hang Seng (24265 to 24668 was firm), Aussie All Ords (5663 to 5896 was firm), and BSE 30 of India (15343 to 15808 was strong).
The Toronto Composite (13668 to 13683) was quiet and the Bovespa of Brazil (64446 to 62585) took a hit.
I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.
I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices.
The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart
Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart
Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart
Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:
Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
US Equity Markets Review
The US equity markets fell between -2.25% and -3.58% W/W. A week ago, after they had been very strong, I commented:
The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had another huge burst of prices that followed the pre-holiday Thursday a week earlier. Mostly Financials driven. As I said, Wall St Talking Heads were being sent to Financial Entertainment TV wearing clown costumes (“LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL”)… Five weeks ago, the DJIA closed at 12266. This week the close was 12609, which is a gain of +343 points (in five weeks of Fed pumping in maybe $300 billion on the bankers 1-800-HELP line. But, in just 7.5 hours of trading on the NYSE on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, there was a move of some +450 Dow 30 points… So, where’s the beef?... When you start to ponder that $300 billion the Fed pumped into the market in the interim, you realize that’s about 25% of their balance sheet, which as I say was once liquid and is now saddled with the assets nobody on the Street wanted… At this point, I am going to say that sometimes in a poker game a player has to ignore the cards showing on the table and instead go with the tells. Right about now, all the technical analysts are pointing to strength in market prices. My telltale is the ongoing credit crunch, the lack of positive guidance as the major companies report, the woeful retail sales, the worsening housing market, and so forth. If I had a fundamental reason for believing today’s prices in the HB&B-dominated and controlled capital market, I’d give in to the technical analysts. But, frankly, just because UBS is up this week +21.2%, LEH +16.3%, MER +15.8%, C +15.6%, FNM +16.6% and CFC +4.8%, I don’t believe for a second this is a new Bull market. These companies are in trouble, and they are restructuring and laying off staff every month.
Sometimes, you just have to follow your nose. Mine was saying that just because the Monthly RSI-7 had turned up for the Monthly charts of the major market indexes in the US, the Weekly and Daily RSI-7 were pointing down. So, I figured that the chart indicator was telling me only that there was a lull in the action to work through that 450 point move in the DJIA in the course of about 7 hours. You see Intervention can only work so far. Wait a couple days and see what happens after that.
A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Value Line Report(s) this past Friday
Here are two valuable reports for your consideration, one on Intel (INTC) and the other General Electric (GE), which are the subjects of the Value Line reports on DJIA companies released Friday, and both Cara 100 companies. Two other companies, not Cara 100’s, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and IBM (IBM), were reviewed in the Daily Report on Friday.
In my view, trading opportunities on the Bull side of this Bear market are quite limited. I would avoid any purchases of these companies until the stocks are clearly in the Accumulation Zone AND have given a Buy Alert. If I am in a position to do so, I shall give a heads-up to a general purpose Buy recommendation, but those who have followed the Cara system with the nuances would be able to figure it out on their own. At the end of the day, you, I or anybody we know will not be able to pick tops and bottoms for the stock cycles of each of these companies. But you can do better than merely following the advice of people who are flat-out conflicted in terms of their independence and objectivity, regardless of their protestations to the contrary.
Technical Evaluation of Intel Nasdaq:INTC
Dow 30 GICS 45 Cara 100
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)
Thursday, April 10, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst
Executive Summary
Since the last recession, this stock has been trading in a very wide range which only benefited swing traders (as opposed to longer term investors). This stock is very sensitive to the economic environment and given the uncertainty as to the scale and extent of the recession, volatility has increased and could increase even further in the next few quarters for this stock. We do not agree with Alan G House of Value Line who sees INTC as a “market performer”. If the stock’s beta is 1.35, that just cannot be! We do not like the risk reward potential for this stock and would recommend avoidance at this point in time. There is a possibility of further correction back to a price of $14.00-$15.00.
We give this stock a rating of 4.5 over a possible 10.
The trend
Point and Figure trend
The long term trend is negative given that the stock is trading well below its bearish support line (bold dark red line at $26.00), and at a discount of 15.4% to this line as shown on the following chart:
(Chart #1) Please click link.
The stock is currently trading above its increasing MA50 days ($20.87), but below its decreasing MA100 days ($22.62) and MA200 days ($23.78). Since it reached a secondary high of $27.00 in November 2007, it has generated its first double bottom ($22.00) sell signal. We see support at $18. If that fails, the next test would be $16.50 and then $14.50.
Traditional Technical Analysis trend
The Monthly view
The monthly chart illustrates the long term triangle formation since the stock reached a low of $12.21 in 2002. Eventually, there will be an upward or downward move outside of this formation which will say a lot about the perceived future growth of this company. In the meantime, it is only natural that a previous cycle high flyer pays the price of going nowhere during the current cycle. Since achieving a higher low of $16.16 in 2006, consistent distribution has now reversed into quiet accumulation which confirms that a breakout above $28.00 would “wake up” many Intel watchers.
(Chart #2) Please click link.
The Weekly view
The weekly chart shows a stock which has been in a trading range roughly between a low of $18.00 and a high of $28.00. The Bollinger bands shows a very wide range of ($27.61-$16.89 = $10.72) which is a reaction to the surprise downswing in early January 2008. The same situation happened in early 2006 when the stock dropped from $26.26 to a low of $16.16. It would be preferable for the Bollinger bands to narrow significantly before one considers a trading position.
(Chart #3) Please click link.
The Daily view
The daily chart shows two consecutive gaps which must be considered as potential resistance on any subsequent upswing. For the time being, the price of Intel is struggling at the top of the first gap at $22.00. It is also trading below the 400 days moving average which should also be considered as a significant resistance. The wedge formation does not augur well for the short term direction of this stock. We see more downside risk than upside potential.
(Chart #4) Please click link.
The Trader’s view
The following chart shows the two most important action signals in 2008. The first was a sell in January (red arrow) at $25 after a trend line breakdown. The second is a pending signal (green arrow), a potential triple top breakout at $22.50 which would confirm the downtrend breakout at $22.00. We would be very cautious about this buy signal given the wedge formation discussed in the daily section.
(Chart #5) Please click link.
The long term trend is negative. The intermediary trend is positive with some risk of reversal. The short term trend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows which is therefore positive.
Relative strength (RS)
Note: Given that Stockcharts does not currently cover the S&P Global 1200 index. In the meantime we have used S&P Global 100 iShares (IOO) as a proxy for the Global 1200 index knowing fully well that their correlation is quite low. This is for chart illustration purposes. However, all of our relative strength computations have been done to the S&P Global 1200 index.
Sector / Industry relative strength
Generally, Cara Trading Advisors should over weight sectors in its portfolio during all market environments which experience superior relative strength until such time as we receive a clear signal as to the change of trend in the relative strength for that sector.
Intel is part of the Information Technology sector (GICS 45). This sector has generally been performing in line with the market but recently gave a sell signal as shown on the following chart.
(Chart #6) Please click link.
With so many securities to choose from, it only makes sense to own those whose price performance is superior to its piers and to the benchmark (the market). That is why we monitor this characteristic very closely and value this attribute highly.
Stock Specific relative strength
We compared Intel to the Global Information Technology Sector ETF (IXN) as shown on the chart below:
(Chart #7) Please click link.
Intel’s relative strength is trading above the green industry bullish line, with the last signal being a buy (double top breakout at 38.23 units) and a short term uptrend (the current column of X). Intel has the highest rating possible with respect to the S&P Global Information Technology Sector index.
We compared Intel to the market (the S&P Global 1200 which we approximated with the IOO ETF) as shown on the chart below:
(Chart #8) Please click link.
Intel’s relative strength is trading below the red market bearish line, with the last signal being a sell (double bottom breakdown at 29.22 units) and a short term uptrend (the current column of X). Intel has the second lowest rating possible with respect to S&P Global 1200 index.
CARA Trading Advisors Projection
It is Cara Trading Advisors’ belief that we are in a full fledged bear market and therefore the tactics for accumulation will differ from that of a bull market strategy. We believe that buying breakouts is appropriate in a roaring bull market while buying support levels is the trading tactic to use in bear markets. Our analysis will therefore focus on the bear market approach.
Furthermore, given Cara Trading Advisors’ market level projection of around 10,000 for the Dow and the relatively long time frame associated with the achievement of this target, we will mostly focus on the investor’s (by opposition to the short term trader) price objectives for accumulation of the company’s stock.
Evaluating the risks and the opportunities
We used four different approaches to determine the most likely price target for this company. As it is often the case, four methods yield vastly different results and it becomes a function of your fundamental expectations for the market, the sector and the company.
Price Objective
Standard Deviation
We estimate the standard deviation of this stock to be around $2.53 or 12.0%. At the current price of $22.08, the one standard deviation downside target price is $19.55, at two standard deviations, it is $17.02 and at three standard deviations, it could hit $14.49. A 2 standard deviation event would break the long term (monthly) triangle formation while a three standard deviation event would break the last monthly low which would confirm more downside risk. Value Line has re-estimated the beta of this stock from 1.25 in January to 1.35 in April reflecting the excessive volatility of January 2008 (see weekly comments above). In an economic slowdown and a bear market, this stock would experience greater than market downside risk which is not an attribute sought after by Cara Trading Advisors currently.
Fibonacci retracement
The stock is currently in a wide trading range. We do not use Fibonacci retracement lines in such a stock configuration.
Point and Figure Price Objective
The P&F horizontal method yields $15.00 which is very close to a three standard deviation event.
Bill Cara market projection.
The current Cara Trading Advisors projection is for the Dow 30 to correct from a top of 14,198.10 to a low of 10,000 which is a bear market of -29.6%.
If the value line beta of 1.35 is with respect to the Dow30, then we should expect the Intel stock to experience the same kind of correction as the market adjusted for risk or $13.25.
Measuring true value
If the 200 days moving average ($23.78) is a reasonable expression of true value, then the stock is currently trading at a discount of 7.7%. But this moving average is currently declining as it “adjust” the true value to a less favourable fundamental environment.
We would suggest avoidance of this stock until we foresee resumption in world economic growth.
/Pierre Brodeur
Summary of Intel at Google Finance.
Technical Evaluation of Intel General Electric NYSE:GE
Dow 30 GICS 20 Cara 100
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)
Friday, April 11, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst
Executive Summary
Friday’s shock will not just go away. The technical damage will take months to repair if the current $30-$32 support holds. During that time it will be dead money with an above average yield. This downswing may no be over because we see the current support area as “weak” support not supported by sufficient historical volume. We project a price target of $25.00 and should the recession worsen, $19.00 is quite possible.
We give this stock a rating of 1.0 over a possible 10.
The trend
Point and Figure trend
The beauty of Point and Figure charts is that we were warned well in advance that the long term trend had changed. Given that GE is a proxy for the economy, we were warned well in advance by Bill Cara that the World economy was slowing down.
The long term trend is negative given that the stock is trading well below its bearish resistance line (bold dark red line at $37.00), and at a discount of 13.4% to this line as shown on the following chart:
(Chart #1) Please click link.
The stock is currently trading below the increasing MA50 days ($34.92), and decreasing MA100 days ($35.44) and MA200 days ($37.16). Since it reached a high of $41.42 in October 2007, it has generated its first double bottom ($35) sell signal. Subsequently, there was a warning sign at $34.00 (yellow 0 and orange arrow) when the shorter term uptrend line was broken. But the main sell signal was given (red arrow) when the double bottom breakdown at $32 confirmed the long term trend breakdown. The market provided investors with an opportunity to exit at a higher price (Bill Cara’s recommendation to reduce positions at higher prices in any bear rally) and even gave a new buy signal at $37 which was never confirmed since the stock was never able to breakout from the bearish long term resistance line at $38.00 (purple arrow). The stock now stands at a double bottom support price and it will be interesting to see if that holds. We see an initial support level at $31.00 (based on a previous resistance in January 2004) If that fails, the next test would be another previous breakout point at $25.00 (March 2002). If that fails, the stocks would go back down to $19.50.
Traditional Technical Analysis trend
The Monthly view
The Monthly chart illustrates the doubling of the price during the recent bull market which corresponds closely to a 61.8% retracement of the previous bear market, an interesting coincidence if only because it is a critical Fibonacci level. If GE is a good representation of the market, this should be considered as a warning than things will get worse before they get better. The yellow zone shows the Fib 50%-61.8% area which is critical to the future of this stock because if it is broken, Bill Cara’s market prediction might be too tame. It also shows significant past purchasing power at $30.00 (three black arrows).
(Chart #2) Please click link.
The Weekly view
The weekly chart shows that it did not take a lot of volume to provide a triple support of $30.00 in the past (the volume histogram is on the left side of the chart). This is just a clue that this support price may not be as strong as the price activity might suggest at first glance. It also shows that Friday’s volume was huge by historical standards, Finally, On Balance Volume confirmed RSI (7)’s trend change to negative as smart money exited the stock way in advance of the current negative news.
(Chart #3) Please click link.
The Daily view
In bear markets, we get to see more and more “torpedoes”. This one was quite a surprise including the Value Line analyst who published a relatively optimistic report on the day of the bad earnings report. The crossover of MA50 (in January 2008) and MA100 (in February 2008) below MA200 (red circles) warned of the change of trend from bullish to bearish. At current evaluations, the stock is trading near $31.56 which is the one standard deviation Bollinger Band based on the 400 days moving average. This shows that the stock reflects extreme pessimism and that the 13% drop may be excessive in the short term.
(Chart #4) Please click link.
The Trader’s view
The following chart focuses on the trader’s perspective. It shows the three most important action signals in 2008. The first was a sell in October 2007 (red arrow) at $38.50 after a trend line breakdown. Next we had the buy signal (green arrow) in March 2008 at $35.00 after a trend line breakout. Finally, the short term uptrend was reversed Friday with a breakdown below $33.00.
(Chart #5) Please click link.
The long term trend is negative. The intermediary trend is negative. The short term trend is negative.
Relative strength (RS)
Note: Given that Stockcharts does not currently cover the S&P Global 1200 index. In the meantime we have used S&P Global 100 iShares (IOO) as a proxy for the Global 1200 index knowing fully well that their correlation is quite low. This is for chart illustration purposes. However, all of our relative strength computations have been done to the S&P Global 1200 index.
Sector / Industry relative strength
Generally, Cara Trading Advisors should over weight sectors in its portfolio during all market environments which experience superior relative strength until such time as we receive a clear signal as to the change of trend in the relative strength for that sector.
General Electric is part of the Industrials sector (GICS 20). This sector has been performing in line with the market as shown on the following chart.
(Chart #6) Please click link.
The last observation is sitting on support at 79.84 units. The immediate risk is that of a breakdown below quintuple support.
With so many securities to choose from, it only makes sense to own those whose price performance is superior to its piers and to the benchmark (the market). That is why we monitor this characteristic very closely and value this attribute highly.
Stock Specific relative strength
We compared General Electric to the Global Industrials Sector ETF (EXI) as shown on the chart below:
(Chart #7) Please click link.
General Electric’s relative strength is trading below the red industry bearish line, with the last signal being a sell (double bottom breakdown at 56.36 units) and a short term downtrend (the current column of 0). GE has the lowest rating possible with respect to the S&P Global Industrials Sector index.
We compared General Electric to the market (the S&P Global 1200 which we approximated with the IOO ETF) as shown on the chart below:
(Chart #8) Please click link.
General Electric’s relative strength is trading below the red market bearish line, with the last signal being a sell (double bottom breakdown at 45.73 units) and a short term downtrend (the current column of 0). General Electric has the lowest rating possible with respect to S&P Global 1200 index.
CARA Trading Advisors Projection
It is Cara Trading Advisors’ belief that we are in a full fledged bear market and therefore the tactics for accumulation will differ from that of a bull market strategy. We believe that buying breakouts is appropriate in a roaring bull market while buying support levels is the trading tactic to use in bear markets. Our analysis will therefore focus on the bear market approach.
Furthermore, given Cara Trading Advisors’ market level projection of around 10,000 for the Dow and the relatively long time frame associated with the achievement of this target, we will mostly focus on the investor’s (by opposition to the short term trader) price objectives for accumulation of the company’s stock.
Evaluating the risks and the opportunities
We used four different approaches to determine the most likely price target for this company. As it is often the case, four methods yield vastly different results and it becomes a function of your fundamental expectations for the market, the sector and the company.
Price Objective
Standard Deviation
We estimate the standard deviation of this stock to be around $2.31 or 7.2%. At the current price of $32.05, the one standard deviation downside target price is $29.74 (Fib-50%), at two standard deviations, it is $27.43 (Fib-61.8%) and at three standard deviations, it could hit $25.12.
Fibonacci retracement
As mentioned above, the Fib 50% and Fib 61.8% level are roughly in line with volatility targets as measured by historical standard deviation.
Point and Figure Price Objective
The P&F approach appears to be quite pessimistic for this stock given the topping formation that it has experienced. The vertical price projection method yields a price target of $17.00 (a highly improbable event much greater than 3 standard deviation) while the horizontal method yields $29.00.
Bill Cara market projection.
The current Cara Trading Advisors projection is for the Dow 30 to correct from a top of 14,198.10 to a low of 10,000 which is a bear market of -29.6%. If the value line beta of 0.90 is with respect to the Dow30, then we should expect General Electric to experience the same kind of correction as the market adjusted for risk or $23.50.
Measuring true value
If the 200 days moving average ($37.16) is a reasonable expression of true value, then the stock is currently trading at a discount of 15.9%. However, this moving average is declining in search of the new lower equilibrium value.
Beta is a measure of a stock’s sensitivity to market movements. Value Line recently re-estimated GE’s beta from 0.95 in January 2008 to 0.90 presently. This would make GE an even more “defensive” security. We do not agree. We would have re-estimated upwards… There are many ways to estimate beta. The most accessible is to do a regression of the price of a stock to the market over a significant historical period and use the slope of the regression as an estimate. The problem with such a method is that fundamentals affect beta and it should be estimated with a multiple factor model which factors in changes in the volatility of various measurable financial items including the balance sheet, earnings and cash flows. At best, we believe GE’s beta is equal to the market and therefore the effect of Bill Cara’s market projection would be worse than the $23.50 previously mentioned.
Our most probable market price projection is around $24-25 but should the recession be worst than currently predicted, then $19.00 is just a few steps away.
/Pierre Brodeur
Summary of General Electric at Google Finance.
The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 1: next one is due May 2)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb 8: next one is due May 9)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)
American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Feb. 22: next one is due May 23)
Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 7: next one is due Jun. 6)
Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 21: next one is due Jun. 20)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)
Wrap up:
This Fund that I identified as my choice for cash management is a Barbados-registered company that trades with the Swiss broker Ducascopy of Geneva Switzerland. I have checked out the broker and spoke to the CEO on Friday and the sales VP a week earlier.
[http://www.dukascopy.com/]
The Fund is offered exclusively to Qualified Eligible Participants via a registered Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) and Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) member in good standing with the US National Futures Association (NFA) and is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Fund expects to close the offering shortly.
The Fund is open only to "Accredited" investors as defined by the CFTC (ie, among other tests, an individual with a liquid net worth in excess of $1 million, or an annual net income in excess of $200,000 in the two most recent years). The rules are intricate. If you believe you qualify, but would like a clear definition, please contact me at bill@billcara.com.
The Fund is not a public offering. The offering is not required by law to be, and accordingly has not been, registered or qualified with, nor approved or disapproved by, the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") or any state securities regulatory authority, nor has such commission or any regulatory authority passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the Fund's Confidential Offering Memorandum. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.
Pursuant to an exemption from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in connection with pools whose participants are limited to Qualified Eligible Participants, an Offering Memorandum for this pool is not required to be, and has not been, filed with the Commission. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission does not pass upon the merits of participating in a pool or upon the adequacy or accuracy of an Offering Memorandum. Consequently, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has not reviewed or approved this offering or any Offering Memorandum for this pool.
For accredited investors only, I can only tell you what I am doing. Accredited investors, ie, qualified eligible persons, can obtain the Fund information directly by a referral from me at bill@billcara.com. You should be aware of the following.
The risk of investing in this product, which generally includes managers that trade futures and options, can be substantial. Prior to solicitation for such products, the rules of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC") require delivery of a Disclosure Document (Offering Memorandum) which explains, among other things, the principal risk factors and costs of any proposed alternative investment program, including the potential impact of fees and expenses, the "breakeven" point in dollars and the percentage return necessary to recover one's initial investment, and restrictions on redeeming or withdrawing one's initial investment.A copy of this Disclosure Document (Offering Memorandum) is available and should be examined in full before investing. All investors must also be provided, execute, and return to the Fund a hard-copy of the Disclosure Document (Offering Memorandum) Subscription Agreement before investing.
Among other issues, you should carefully consider whether your financial condition permits you to participate in a commodity pool Fund. In so doing, you should be aware that futures and options trading can quickly lead to large losses as well as gains. Such trading losses can sharply reduce the net asset value of the Fund and consequently the value of your interest in the Fund. In addition, restrictions on redemptions may affect your ability to withdraw your participation in the Fund.
Further, commodity pools may be subject to substantial charges for management and advisory and brokerage fees. It may be necessary for those pools that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets. The Disclosure Document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors, each expense to be charged to the investor, and a statement of the amount, as a percentage of return and dollar amount, necessary to break even, that is, to recover the amount of your initial investment.
I regret that in the hours I have available to do what I do, I have not been able to establish a legal structure for non-accredited investors who wish to deal with me. In time, I shall, but you must be aware that it will be quite an expensive undertaking and that securities rules are made, not, as advertised, to protect the public, but in essence to maintain the status quo. Without these rules, however, securities markets would be a Wild West show, completely unacceptable to all of us. So, I have always supported regulation, where it is practiced fairly.
Btw, the “Money Quotes” I published on Saturday are well known in Libertarian circles. My objective is not to proselytize (try to convert anybody to any [religious or] political doctrine like) Libertarianism. I simply want people to think for themselves, to learn, and to be able to manage their own wealth successfully. If that means competing against Wall Street as it is presently structured, or any other impediment, so be it.
Remember, it’s not enough for there to be an awakening by the People; action must be taken. There are people in the Cara Community who, anonymously, are prepared to help. I think the expertise and the personal values of the best of them come out, and these persons in the community become centers of influence as a result, perhaps by my guidance but certainly by their actions.
Onwards and upwards. Have a great trading week coming up.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 13, 2008 06:45:21 PM | Category: Cara Week in Review