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April 13, 2008

Week in Review #15 (2008-04-13)

Capital markets are on tenterhooks. General Electric (GE), arguably America’s most impressive private sector company, is under fire for misleading the country with its recent statements that earning’s expectations would be met, when they were not, and that the economy and the financial system is in good shape, when a couple weeks later they are saying it is not.

So this week General Electric and its CEO Jeff Immelt are in the spotlight. When the news broke near the end of the week, the equity market was crushed and capital fled to the supposedly safe-haven of short-term US Treasury bills and notes.

On Friday, GE stock dropped -12.8%, causing a loss W/W of -14.7%. The S&P 500 futures plunged -2.0% on Friday, ending the week down -2.6%. Clearly the Bulls have lost the leadership of the General. If the equity market is to stave collapse, the pretence that Goldilocks is alive and well must be saved and new leadership step up in the equity market.

What could that possibly be? Let’s see; the Financials (XLF) were down -4.7% this week, next worst performer of all the market sectors. Hmmm, the Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) also were hammered -3.8%, so the American consumer is not spending enough to protect the consumer economy.

So, you have the manufacturers, financials and consumers all leading the market south, and only Energy (love those record high prices at the fuel pumps) up +0.3% for the XLE and Healthcare (need I say more) (IYH -0.83%) trying to support a sinking ship.

You have been entertained by GE’s CNBC long enough to conclude whether your experience in listening to “personalities” is worth it. Is it time to turn Financial TV’s version of a Reality Show off the air and get serious by studying capital market price trends and cycles?

This week, many of you have been listening to the concerns of the leaders of the European Economic Community (EEC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They, and others like them, are only saying what many of you already know. To wit: Just because market prices are high, doesn’t mean that economic value exists and that there will not be a reversion to the mean.

Obviously, you all learned that with the 2005 US housing market, and subsequent events.

We still need these bankers to come clean as to the value of their holdings of securitized mortgage-backed asset paper. Our portfolios don’t operate well in fantasy land.

If the financial backing is missing, then the bankers’ securities need to be fully written down. So far, the best estimates are that such write-downs are perhaps 25% of what they need to be. Also, the house foreclosures situation is worsening, and US home-owners and investors in the housing market are likely to take from -15% to -33% additional loss of market prices before price and value are back in balance. That situation hurts the banks more than anybody because the extent of their write-downs will need to be much higher, putting many of the banks into a position of insolvency.

The airline industry is being taken down by high fuel costs, but at least they have the reasonable expectation that people need to fly in a commercial aircraft in the years ahead. But do the people need banks? That’s a question the bankers ought to ask the telephone companies that relied on copper wires and outrageous long-distance billing until fiber optic cable and wireless technologies leveled the playing field. Now any of you can call me in the Bahamas free.

Yes, I think the bankers are in fear that the same concerns and technological solutions will lead to a global credit union or community trust. Aha, now you are starting to think, hey why not a Cara Community Trust in the Bahamas?

Well, it just might happen.

A week ago, I made the following comments that should be extended:

… it goes without saying that the new unwritten rule on Wall Street is that no investment bank of any large size is going to be allowed to fail; that the People’s money, not the shareholders capital, will stand behind the company debts and the mistakes of executive management. That offends me because I stand up for social equity, not socialism.

This latest situation in Washington is simply mind-boggling to the owners of capital in America who once had a measure of faith in their capital market. Now it is apparent that the market will be played by Henry’s Rules, and Mr. Moral Hazard had the arrogance to not even show his face at these crucial hearings. That’s not right.

Careful planning on his part had Henry Paulson in China working on a deal that would help Wall Street investment bankers, which is the flow of funds from Chinese investors, public and private, into America, public and private, via investment bankers. I’ll say this again, once: Henry Paulson, as Secretary of the Treasury of the US, and the individual who was integral to the Bear Stearns-JP Morgan-Fed deal, had an absolute and total obligation to stand before Congress and give testimony as to what he did to save the financial system of America that others who gave testimony stated was so critical at the time.

Paulson knew that Rep. Senator Chuck Grassley wanted the moral hazard issue addressed. He knew that Rep. Congressman Dr. Ron Paul and Dem. Senator Bob Menendez were going to demand answers to the committees they are members of. Yes, the China mission was important. The Senate hearing was more important.

Life is all about choices. Had one of Paulson’s parents passed, he would not have gone to China. The gravity of the Congressional hearings was such that the Treasury Secretary had an obligation to stand there and give the full truth to the American people. He turtled.

He did it to protect the Fed and the Administration and the increased role he wants them to play in the US government. I say enough is enough from Mr. Moral Hazard. There is no need to have a Federal Reserve System, which manages the People’s money, under the control of private bankers. It was a ridiculous notion to begin with, and now is leading the capital market into an abyss that could possibly result in an economic depression and a very weak state of the union.

There is also no need for the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets (aka PPT) to have any power whatsoever other than being one of several policy study organizations within the US government.

These are not principles on which the US was founded, and the imbalance that Paulson is recommending clearly conflicts with public policy from Congress that leads to legislation with checks and balances the People need.

At the end of the day, what goes around comes around. The People whose ancestors fought for America, and those who have recently joined it for opportunity and protection, will have their needs met. If they don’t, let’s call a spade a spade; in that unlikely event, America could no longer be called a democracy, and the bankers will have won.


Global Economics Review

The US economy probably went recessive in December. The weight of the evidence, ie, the economic data, has been piling up and can no longer be denied.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Consumer Credit Report for February

US Pending Home Sales Index for February

US Chain Store Sales for March

US International Trade data for February

The Weekly (April 5) Jobless Claims Report which has been skyrocketing in recent weeks.

US Import and Export Price Data for March which has been skyrocketing in recent months.

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for April which has been plummeting since the start of 2007.

So much for last week. Let’s look ahead. Here is next week’s economic calendar:

US Economic Calendar.

US Retail Sales for March

US Business Inventories for February

US Producer Price Index (PPI) for March

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March

US Housing Starts for March and the ripple effect.

US Industrial Production for March

Weekly (April 12) Jobless Claims Data

The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.

Weekly International Economic Report .

…the economies of Europe and Japan are almost as bad off as the US and are worsening week by week. I fully expect these economies to go into recession as well, which means that significantly more than 50 pct of the global economy will be in recession at the same time.

The bad news gets worse because, as strong as the growth is in the emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), these markets are not unaffected by the others. I expect serious declines in the BRIC economic growth rates, and significant increases in their inflation rates, this year.

As I say, positive economic news is now infrequent, and the same is happening around the world. The already dangerous element of stagflation is now compounded by illiquid credit markets. The capital that is being injected by the Fed into the US market is merely replacing illiquid US mortgage-backed assets (now held by the Fed) with liquid funds that are being used to buy commodities and foreign securities, which is continuing to pressure the $USD.

Treasury Secretary Paulson is trying to mask the problem by having the Chinese and investors from other foreign nations buy US private and public market securities. His program only wins if Stagflation continues. The shame of it is that in the next business and economic cycle, wealth will be built by Americans domestically and the USD will strengthen. Then, Americans will see they sold off sound assets at the cycle bottom and received foreign currency when it was over-priced.

Paulson is a powerful banker without question, but he is sure proving he isn’t a good economist. I suspect he’s a better Trojan Horse than many people give him credit for.


Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

“Jock” is on sabbatical.


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

For this week, 7 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 23 down; a reversal of fortune from the prior week.

Friday was a killer as 29 of the Dow 30 were down and the DJIA/S&P500 each lost -2.04% and the NASDAQ Composite dumped -2.61%. The selling was constant through the day; there was no week-ending rally. No lipstick for this pig.

It was anticipated, this being a Bear market and all.

In the last WIR in this space, I wrote:


This was a week spurred by a single day record gain, April 1, the biggest move since April 1, 2038, signaling the end of the Great Depression… By the end of the week, the DJIA and S&P 500 stocks were up +3.22% and +4.20% respectively… In fact it was a mixed up week. Monday was generally firm, and then came Tuesday, rocketing about +150 Dow 30 points at the open, trapping the shorts, who caved in over the next 6 ½ hours of trading into Wed. morning, with a further +300 point rise in the DJIA. The rest of the week saw a lot of selling, however. Over the final 18 ½ hours of trading in NY, the Dow 30 dropped about -100 points…

But, really, the week was all about Tuesday, probably a forerunner to the testimony in the Congressional meetings over the next couple days in which it would become clear that Bear Stearns and JP Morgan had not only received a govt guarantee of some $29 billion of Bear Stearns illiquid and possibly dubious assets, but that the two had received a like amount in short-term (hopefully) borrowings from the Fed… So, here we are up on average +4.2% W/W, with the Financials (XLF) up +7.0%, but I don’t think the public feels elated.

When the US equity market rockets up on the sick Financials immediately before the most important Congressional hearing in recent memory, you have to pull your offers, stand back and when the interventionists have no more ammunition left you strike back. That’s when you sell and say thank you for the extra funds in your portfolio.

This market will only stay up as long as portfolio managers use Other People’s Money to try to stem the selling tide. These managers are trapped. If equity markets sink to a price level approximating true value, there will be lots of so-called professional managers on the outside looking for work.

I say that OPM is needed because the Administration, the Fed and Wall Street bankers are tapped out. Any more use of the People’s Treasury, and Crude Oil will be headed toward $200 and the $USD to 50 cents. How’s that going to help the economy from tail-spinning into the first Great Depression of this millennium?

So, just as I have been saying since I started blogging, financial services amounts to one massive conflict of interest. That’s the truth, so why are so many of you in denial? You probably allow it because you are enslaved to debt. The rest of you, especially those who are underwater in their home mortgages with no place to turn, admit that you are chattels of the system. You thought you were Americans, Brits, Aussies or whatever, but really your banker owns you and you don’t like me saying it.

The upside to this is that having recognized a problem, you can start to look for solutions, which I wrote about on Wednesday in the Community Chat:

ADDENDUM 1: How? Try private Swiss banks and brokers, forex funds, bullion coins and bars, collectibles, jewelry, interests in debt-free private corporations, economic real estate that has iron-clad mortgages with Triple-A tenants, and on and on. These are alternatives that even in the short run are superior to worrying about a screwed-up credit-based financial system.

The problem as I see it is that every time there is a collapse of a major financial services company -- we have been watching a series of them from Japan, Australia, Europe, UK, Canada, the US -- is that clients get screwed. Yes, they may recover some or possibly all their capital, but at what cost?

Even if you wish to seek the protection of a private bank (one that does not act as principal and that is well protected against failure of some or many of its clients) there is a counter-party risk in trading with highly leveraged market makers, which is the reason why these private bank accounts are in so much cash today.

I am working on a white paper that covers the reason why this past week I signed an agreement to set up a pooled forex trading account at a Swiss brokerage house.

I don't do collectibles, jewelry or real estate, but between bullion and forex, there is no need to trade securities until after the equity market adjusts to the risks that exist today, which are not adequately priced into it. Even if I manage to find undervalued equities, I cannot be sure what happens to the price if banks and broker-dealers start to fail. I cannot trust a bank or broker-dealer to tell me the truth while facing calamity, which is why I say that at the heart of the problem is conflict of interest.

The Forex trading fund I am now affiliated with (my CFO is the Fund’s Chairman) has excelled for the past two years. The Fund trades principally Great Britain Pound Sterling/Japanese Yen (“GBP/JPY”) as well as Great Britain Pound Sterling/US Dollar (“GBP/USD”) and Euro/Japanese Yen (“EUR/JPY”).

The results over 24 months, as I understand it, are as follows:

Monthly average gross return = +5.69%
Average annual gross return = +87.57%
Monthly standard deviation = +3.90%
Sharpe ratio = 1.35
% positive months = 87.5%
Worst month = -1.40%
Best month = +13.80%

In my view this is professional cash management of the highest order.

For those who are interested and may qualify, I inserted a statement at the end of the blog. I had intended, and may still do a white paper on managing cash as an asset class, but my time is short and other events this week have been very distracting.


NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 lost -3.41% and -3.58% respectively.

As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY”

I think you can forget Yahoo (YHOO) from that list because it still appears that Microsoft (MSFT) is zeroing in for the acquisition. That’s two weeks now for the Yahoo Board to decide if they are going to accept a $40 billion offer. I don’t know why not? Nobody else has got that kind of money.

I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other. This week, the Tech ETF (XLK) and the Semi-conductor ETF (SMH) dropped -2.80% and -2.92% respectively while the SPY was down -2.57%. But on Friday, XLK and SMH dropped -2.76% and -3.08% respectively, while the sick Financials (XLF) and the SPY were down -1.84% and -1.95% respectively.

What traders need to do in the upcoming earnings season is focus on the Tech stocks in the non-financial Nasdaq 100 index. If these companies are beating expectations, there may be a lull in the market sell-off; but if they don’t, I suspect the market is on a fast elevator ride down.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10


Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10


Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10


The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week, there were 8 sectors down and 2 up. But the two (XLU +0.33% and XLE +0.25%) were up marginally.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


SPY Monthly data:


 SPY Monthly Data

SPY Weekly data:


 SPY Weekly Data

SPY Daily data:


SPY Daily Data


The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLU 39.30 0.02 0.05% 0.33% 4.44% 2.69% -6.63% -9.51% -5.07% -3.94%
XLE 77.50 -1.20 -1.52% 0.25% 5.40% 1.93% -2.52% 2.50% 1.24% 24.86%
IYH 63.66 -0.96 -1.49% -0.83% 1.29% 1.48% -9.19% -12.60% -11.64% -7.26%
XLB 42.07 -0.65 -1.52% -1.96% 4.42% 1.79% 1.86% 5.23% -2.12% 9.41%
XLP 27.78 -0.19 -0.68% -2.08% -0.43% 1.39% -2.15% -1.73% -1.07% 3.00%
SPY 133.37 -2.65 -1.95% -2.57% 1.38% 1.31% -7.98% -4.82% -14.20% -7.39%
XLK 22.59 -0.64 -2.76% -2.80% 0.80% 1.62% -13.51% -6.73% -17.67% -4.36%
SMH 29.55 -0.94 -3.08% -2.92% 3.58% 0.82% -5.77% 4.79% -21.01% -14.27%
IYZ 23.36 -0.32 -1.35% -3.19% 1.26% 3.04% -19.92% -14.49% -30.60% -25.42%
XLY 30.84 -0.65 -2.06% -3.78% 1.02% 0.95% -4.22% 1.98% -18.11% -20.10%
XLF 25.13 -0.47 -1.84% -4.67% 1.95% 1.70% -11.39% -8.78% -28.99% -29.43%
XLI 36.44 -1.48 -3.90% -5.10% -1.09% -0.60% -5.38% 0.19% -11.42% 2.24%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


Individual Sector ETF Review

This week, there were 8 sectors (5 ETF’s) above SPY and 3 below. The worst performers were XLP, IYH and XLK. The best were XLF, SMH, and XLB.

I think I had some bad data in here last week. Sorry; this is a template and I zip right by stuff sometimes. It’s the only way I can write a book in a day. (LOL


Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Monthly Data

XLE Weekly data:


XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data:

XLE Daily Data


XLE had a W/W gain of +0.25% to close at 77.50. That’s shocking given that the $WTIC jumped +$3.91/bbl to close the week at 110.14, hitting a high on Thursday of 112.20.

Norway’s Statoil (STO +4.1%) plus a couple Canadians (SU +2.3% and ECA +2.1%) were up, but PTR -4.6% and SLB -0.83% (-2.2% on Friday) were losers. Exxon (XOM) had a bad Friday (-1.0%).

Can Crude Oil go higher? I think it is over-bought here with the Daily RSI-7 over 70 and the Weekly approaching it. Yes, the price could go much higher, but the long-term bigger picture view is that economic slowdown will hold down the price as much as the high price will cause economic slowdown. The spec rally, I think, has lots to do with stories from the Middle East political situation. Traders today believe that the US Administration is capable of misdeeds in worsening that conflict.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
STO 32.37 -0.42 -1.28% 4.12% 8.41% 4.42% 3.62% 12.40% -1.25% 17.50%
SU 104.38 -2.91 -2.71% 2.28% 6.73% -3.60% -5.34% 0.52% 5.37% 32.31%
ECA 78.27 -1.28 -1.61% 2.06% 4.56% -0.81% 12.44% 16.47% 22.64% 49.17%
PBR 112.85 -2.32 -2.01% 1.85% 11.84% 0.88% -5.02% 1.47% 36.90% 120.88%
TOT 77.31 -1.13 -1.44% 1.38% 5.41% 1.91% -7.17% -8.10% -0.94% 9.19%
RIG 145.08 -2.33 -1.58% 1.07% 8.13% 4.15% -0.60% 6.37% 25.85% 77.82%
CVX 88.80 -0.80 -0.89% 0.85% 5.09% 2.02% -4.99% -2.06% -2.42% 15.99%
IMO 53.11 -1.02 -1.88% 0.23% 0.11% -5.14% -3.30% 1.90% 9.94% 39.40%
CEO 158.77 -0.51 -0.32% -0.04% 5.55% -3.92% -5.17% -11.39% -6.21% 80.56%
XOM 88.62 -0.93 -1.04% -0.14% 3.99% 1.80% -5.23% -1.86% -4.36% 15.44%
SLB 90.61 -1.99 -2.15% -0.83% 5.78% 6.40% -9.91% -3.62% -16.55% 24.14%
PTR 129.37 -1.73 -1.32% -4.58% 1.05% -2.83% -25.50% -25.67% -33.07% 11.69%


Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada


Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Monthly Data

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data

XLB Daily data:

XLB Daily Data

This week, Basic Materials (XLB -1.96%) was hurt by Friday’s loss of -1.52%, closing at 42.07.

BHP (+5.2% W/W) continues to ride the rumors of massive Chinese investment in the company. Some of the steelmakers were hit: PKX -9.6%, NUE and MT -2.7%.

A week ago I wrote that “… the gold bugs and the Wall St Bulls believe that prices are going to the moon. That’s what makes a market”. This week, the goldminers’ index ($XAU -1.62%) was down.

Speaking of steelmakers, and my usual thoughts on bought-and-paid-for media, I am shocked, but not surprised, that the former Stelco CEO (and ex-Brascan/Brookfield Exec VP) Courtney Pratt, who managed to put Canada’s premier steelmaker into bankruptcy court even as the company was earning all-time record high income (on a premise that turned out wrong), is re-writing history.

I just received this mail from someone who had expert knowledge of the Stelco affair:

“I shook my head in disbelief yesterday when I read an ad in the Hamilton Spectator promoting the new book by Courtney Pratt and Larry Gaudet. The name of the book is "Into The Blast Furnace", "The Forging Of A CEO'S CONSCIENCE".

The full colour ad goes on to read:

"6,000 jobs and 10,000 pensions were on the line when Stelco Inc. went into bankruptcy protection in early 2004. Businessman Courtney Pratt was hired as CEO to deal with the mess. Read exclusive excerpts from his new book only in The Hamilton Spectator. Pratt and writer Larry Gaudet detail two turbulent years of backroom deals and high emotions around the fate of Hamilton's steel plant.
April 12, 2008: Read exclusive excerpts only in the Hamilton Spectator."

It will be interesting to read the excerpt. I'll report on it later.”

I know a book that should be tossed into that blast furnace and I figure I know a couple thousand members of the Steelworkers Local 1005 who would line up for the honor. I could only imagine what they’d like to do with the author.

Everytime I see this stuff, I think I’ll go back to the Money Quotes list that I gave you in the Sat. community Chat. For example, here’s a few that come to mind when thinking about the prospects of fair and objective journalism by the ex-Stelco CEO:

27. “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie.” - Joseph Goebbels

37. “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It is simply too painful to acknowledge - even to ourselves - that we’ve been so credulous.” - Carl Sagan

38. “Only the small secrets need to be protected. The big ones are kept secret by public incredulity.” - Marshall McLuhan

46. “The business of the journalist is to destroy the truth, to lie outright, to pervert, to vilify, to fawn at the feet of Mammon, and to sell his country and his race for his daily bread. You know it and I know it, so what folly is this toasting an independent press? We are the tools and vassals of rich men behind the scenes.

47. They pull the strings and we dance.” - John Swinton, New York Times Chief of Staff

60. “The great mass of people will more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one. What luck for rulers that men do not think.” - Adolf Hitler

100. “When you control opinion, as corporate America controls opinion in the United States by owning the media, you can make the masses believe almost anything you want, and guide them as you please.” - Gore Vidal

I’m waiting to get a book view done by Local 1005. That will tell what happened to them and the bondholders and shareholders, all of whom got screwed by the author’s former employer, in my opinion.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
BHP 77.05 -0.92 -1.18% 5.23% 17.53% 10.06% 9.43% 13.83% -7.90% 54.19%
RTP 462.48 -3.47 -0.74% 1.76% 13.49% 3.65% 10.19% 16.09% 26.69% 89.53%
TCK 45.52 -1.34 -2.86% 1.45% 8.17% 4.64% 25.61% 35.19% -12.55% -37.71%
VCP 31.41 -0.23 -0.73% 0.90% 11.54% 7.24% 5.76% 7.61% 10.33% 63.42%
GGB 35.94 -0.90 -2.44% -0.58% 17.60% 7.80% 25.23% 22.70% 22.24% 87.87%
TS 50.63 -0.67 -1.31% -0.73% 3.69% 1.48% 14.06% 28.63% -4.87% 8.11%
DOW 38.51 -0.09 -0.23% -0.88% 5.05% 2.89% -0.62% 6.26% -14.02% -14.59%
RIO 35.82 -0.59 -1.62% -2.32% 4.89% 4.80% 9.51% 11.94% 5.04% -10.96%
MT 82.90 -2.74 -3.20% -2.67% 3.19% 5.94% 8.51% 23.60% 5.51% 52.53%
NUE 68.64 -3.01 -4.20% -2.69% -0.61% -5.28% 18.41% 27.32% 21.27% 3.16%
PKX 121.23 -1.90 -1.54% -9.58% 2.36% 0.36% -17.23% -13.02% -34.22% 17.87%
AA 35.15 -0.96 -2.66% -9.87% -2.66% -8.63% -2.71% 10.78% -7.69% 0.20%


Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


XLI Monthly data:


XLI Monthly Data


XLI Weekly data:

XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data:

XLI Daily Data


Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
ERJ 42.68 -1.27 -2.89% 2.94% 8.68% 2.13% -5.43% -6.75% -12.77% -8.10%
BA 76.86 -1.57 -2.00% 1.60% 4.61% 3.61% -11.27% -4.55% -20.15% -14.57%
TXT 57.16 -0.24 -0.42% -1.50% 4.65% 5.50% -14.44% -3.25% -10.13% 25.49%
HON 56.99 -1.81 -3.08% -2.20% 2.04% 0.51% -4.86% 0.33% -6.39% 22.85%
FLR 149.46 -2.94 -1.93% -2.24% 6.49% 6.28% 3.50% 3.94% -3.96% 61.49%
MMM 78.47 -1.88 -2.34% -2.55% 0.67% -0.77% -5.13% 1.15% -16.84% 2.94%
ABB 26.58 -0.42 -1.56% -2.96% -0.49% 1.80% -7.19% 4.36% -3.77% 49.16%
UTX 69.53 -2.32 -3.23% -3.07% 1.43% 1.49% -7.55% -3.00% -12.26% 8.50%
CAT 74.80 -0.91 -1.20% -3.89% -2.97% -1.15% 5.90% 13.32% -5.84% 12.74%
FDX 92.90 -1.44 -1.53% -4.10% 1.79% 6.70% 7.82% 10.54% -12.68% -13.35%
UPS 70.89 -0.44 -0.62% -4.73% -1.90% 0.23% 2.50% 1.87% -7.35% 0.60%
GE 32.05 -4.70 -12.79% -14.67% -12.46% -6.42% -12.81% -8.87% -22.96% -8.30%

XLI (Industrials) plunged -5.10% this week to close at 36.44. Friday’s loss was -3.90%. As you, General Electric was leading the retreat. GE plunged -12.79% on Friday and -14.67%.

There is an issue of credibility here. It’s not for me to counsel the GE CEO Jeff Immelt, but the truth is I have constantly raised the issue in this blog that he is a “sunshine boy” – never saw a quarter that didn’t look up, an employee at CNBC who couldn’t cheerlead enough, and so forth.

Here is the problem. I like Jeff Immelt. He cleaned up a lot of the mess left behind by Jack Welch, Fortune Magazine’s “Manager of the Century”, 1999. I wonder if Fortune feels the same today. I know GE shareholders probably don’t.

Jeff Immelt’s company (a Cara 100) is a great one, much stronger today than it was in the 1990’s, much of it due to Immelt. But economies often go bad, and credit markets often go bad (and GE is a major player in both), so the fall-out is not-unexpected. GE remains a Cara 100 company. The price is just closer to the Accumulation zone.

Here’s the important point: CEO’s are like Commander-in-chiefs; if they aren’t boosters, they aren’t employed. More conflict of interest to investors/traders who are in need of facts. So, to resolve this situation, large corporations ought to decide to whether it’s prudent to sent their Chief Financial Officer and Chief Information Officer jointly to make all disclosures to the media. Then, just maybe, a Buy doesn’t mean hold, and a hold mean a sell. You know, aren’t we all sick and tired of the games on reality TV?

Anyway, I figured something was up a week ago. There is, you know, always going to be insider trading. It’s illegal, but it’s human nature to beat the next guy. So, I watch the prices, and had this to say after the moonshot 70-year record beating performance of the US equity market just a week and a half ago. Tell me if I didn’t smell a rat here in last week’s WIR?


Funny how GE gained just +2.59% while Fluor (FLR) continues to rumble (+8.93%), up from $105 in Feb to a recent $150. Isn’t that a sight for my dyslexic eyes? I had to type it twice before I read it properly.

Now, you know I’m not dyslexic (I didn’t want to make light of such a horrible condition), but I wanted to make the point hit home. Not to put too fine a point on it, but GE dropped -$60 billion market cap in a couple days.

Stick with me. We’ll get this thing figured out one day.


Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


XLY Monthly data:


XLY Monthly Data


XLY Weekly data:


XLY Weekly Data


XLY Daily data:


XLY Daily Data

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) dropped -3.78% to close at 30.84. A week ago, XLY “roared, up +4.98% W/W to 32.05”.

Talk about volatility. Does anybody other than day traders think this is good for the capital markets?

Anyway, I let you know what I was thinking a week ago:

There was a loss (-0.47%) on Friday though. Same-store sales will be reported this coming week, and most of the retailers will be reporting March sales. I just wonder how bad it’s going to be.

Except for Dillard’s (DDS +8.0% on Friday) and Circuit City (up +6.2% on Friday), the last couple days this week took some big hits in my Retailer Monitor.

That’s not to say there’s any insider trading going on. (LOL) It could actually be real investigative analysts figuring out that “no money for home mortgage payments” also means “no shoes for baby”.

The volatility in this group leads me to believe it has become the home of day traders, something like the Internet stocks of 1999. It’s hard to believe that stocks like Brunswick Corp (BC) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are up and down by 8-10% W/W.

Let’s see, BC down -8.1%, BBBY down -4.3%, BDK -6.2%.

But how about those moonshots from a week ago Friday, DDS and CC? This W/W, DDS and CC plunged -8.9% and -18.4% respectively. So, Mr SEC, how is it stocks can rally on no news +8.0% and +6.2% in a single day, which was a shocker to me, only to plunge the following week by -8.9% and -18.4%?

Maybe, if Mr SEC wasn’t telling stories to Congress this week, he might be on the ball and investigate! But, sorry, let’s not get carried away with the man’s competence. You know what I had to say about him in the last WIR after I watched his testony:

…the new reality (illiquidity) vs 1-800-HOPE. Donald Trump casting is looking for actors for his new Apprentice Show. We saw several auditions in Congress this week. The world was watching.

Getting practice for the Summer Olympics, I was rating the nonsense… Dimon 9.9, Geithner 9.6, Bernanke 9.2, Cox 10.0,… It doesn’t get better than the awesome performance of the simplest questions… Mr. Cox, do you know what city this is? How many fingers am I holding up?...

I’m sorry, but this is painful to endure. On the one hand, I see this kind of stuff and then I have to deal with an SEC that’s in place to protect the very people Mr. Cox has been seated with in his last few Congressional appearances.

I said this recently, the SEC needs to work for the People. It needs a Commissioner who when being questioned in Congress will agree that there are huge problems and that he either resign or stand on his chair and shout to the world that he’s not going to take it any more.

During the day his agency goes after Martha Stewart and Conrad Black, both of whom built immense value and wealth for all of us, and then goes home to bed with HB&B. Meanwhile, the People are getting ripped off, not just in billions, but in trillions. It’s not right: they know it; we know it.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
TGT 51.97 -1.19 -2.24% -1.33% 4.59% 2.79% 4.97% 4.04% -19.58% -12.92%
GOL 15.52 -0.60 -3.72% -1.71% -3.60% 2.11% -35.31% -25.63% -41.19% -45.56%
TM 96.02 0.61 0.64% -2.07% -7.49% -8.55% -9.81% -6.71% -15.53% -22.90%
NKE 66.69 -0.68 -1.01% -2.66% 1.26% 9.27% 5.39% 9.87% 9.31% 23.52%
DIS 30.18 -1.17 -3.73% -3.39% -2.65% -3.67% -5.21% -0.46% -13.80% -12.75%
JCP 38.45 -1.62 -4.04% -4.31% 2.59% -3.10% -7.68% 1.56% -39.23% -53.91%
BBBY 30.23 0.56 1.89% -4.34% 3.85% 5.88% 6.59% 15.65% -13.78% -25.78%
CCL 39.72 -0.54 -1.34% -4.66% 0.05% 1.25% -9.02% 0.40% -20.96% -11.95%
BDK 66.29 -1.14 -1.69% -6.22% 1.25% 0.11% -5.21% 1.18% -18.27% -19.16%
EBAY 30.87 -1.09 -3.41% -6.28% 2.15% 15.62% -4.99% 4.01% -21.01% -8.15%
BC 16.00 -0.18 -1.11% -8.10% -0.74% 1.14% -5.44% 3.23% -28.95% -49.95%
WHR 82.73 -2.48 -2.91% -9.30% -3.13% -2.65% 3.57% 12.50% -8.32% -5.86%


Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:


XLP Monthly data:

XLP Monthly Data

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data:

XLP Daily Data


Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
WMT 54.80 0.14 0.26% 0.74% 5.14% 8.30% 16.84% 14.84% 16.84% 15.93%
KO 60.29 -1.04 -1.70% 0.07% -1.07% 2.31% -1.31% -5.46% 5.42% 21.45%
PEP 71.40 -0.30 -0.42% -0.18% -0.22% 3.12% -5.17% -8.20% -0.52% 12.96%
BUD 48.36 -0.15 -0.31% -0.27% 0.75% 3.84% -6.33% -7.53% -7.67% -6.80%
PG 70.00 -0.18 -0.26% -0.85% 0.81% 3.92% -3.19% -0.26% -2.47% 11.04%
ABV 77.55 -2.78 -3.46% -3.15% 1.88% -3.00% 7.00% 4.35% -1.00% 36.53%
DEO