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April 6, 2008
Week in Review #14 (2008-04-06)
During this week’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee from Bear Stearns and JP Morgan, the world's leading bankers from Humungous Bank & Broker seemed to be in tears over the naked shorting, organized and otherwise, that had gone on in the BSC stock, going so far even as to infer that that problem, not the illiquid assets of Bear unwanted by other bankers, was the real issue.
Surprise, surprise; only when their houses are affected by vermin do these people speak up and admit that just maybe Patrick Byrne of Overstock.com, whom the same illegal short selling syndicates have tried to destroy, slander and humiliate, may have been right after all.
(From the Overstock.com website) "Patrick Byrne is waging a fight with Wall Street over naked short selling. He believes that, through the practice of naked shorting, Wall Street is cheating Main Street America and destroying small companies for a profit. Byrne feels that the SEC is failing to protect retail investors and small companies because it has been captured by Wall Street, and that the New York financial press is similarly co-opted. Byrne believes that the SEC's efforts to eliminate this abusive practice are falling short, not simply for Overstock (which has itself been on the Regulation SHO Threshold list for over two years), but in a way that creates the possibility of systemic risk for our financial world."
Of course Patrick Byrne was right. He was up against the most powerful network in the world, HB&B, and Patrick is just a guy like you and me, trying to make a living doing the right thing, while the last thing the leaders of HB&B want is social equity. They want to control us, plain and simple. Now that naked shorting is threatening their control of the capital markets, they speak up.
That is the entire point to my blog, which is to say that the owners of capital have been made subservient to those who run the credit-based financial services industry in the world, which has been headed by Mr. Moral Hazard himself, Henry Paulson.
Who were the people who permitted naked short selling in the past? Why, it’s HB&B. If these investment bankers had refused to allow unsupported short sale trading, this issue would be a non-starter. But they liked the extra commissions and knew that the practice was being done by their best clients and friends, so they allowed it.
We have discussed this issue at length here, in full support of our friend Dave Patch who has taken this fight to the SEC.
Finally some positive response from the SEC. Well done Patchie.
From: OIG [mailto:OIG@SEC.GOV] Sent: Friday, April 04, 2008 1:14 PM To: Patch, David (GE Infra, Aviation, Non-GE, US) Subject: Proposed Response on Naked Short Selling Dear Mr. Patch, We are planning on sending an update regarding the naked short selling issue to the investors who have previously expressed their concerns on this subject to us. Specifically, we plan to send out an email that mentions our meeting with you. We wanted to show you our proposed email (which we've copied below) before we send it to the investors who have corresponded with us. Please let us know if you have any thoughts on our proposed email. “ *** You previously contacted the Office of Inspector General on the subject of naked short selling. We would like to provide you with an update on our progress regarding this issue. We have conducted a thorough review of all the correspondence provided to us about naked short selling. We also met with Mr. David Patch on Wednesday, March 26, 2008, at which time he gave us an extensive briefing on this topic. We understand the seriousness of the concerns about naked short selling and have begun looking into potential audit issues related to this matter. Thank you again for providing us with information about naked short selling and we will keep you advised of further developments on this topic. *** “ Thank you, Mary Beth Sullivan Counsel to the Inspector General Office of Inspector General U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission
What we need to do is to send letters of support (e-mail) to Dave Patch (idpatch@comcast.net), particularly if you are concerned about specific cases where you believe the illegal naked shorting to be happening. Let Patchie deliver them to the SEC, where they will be heard.
By the way, I once did a blog headed "Short selling is not un-American". I couldn't find the article, but this reference was to another one that was kind of fun doing.
Mr. Sell-Side: Stop this nonsense. You'll never get rid of me! You short-seller, you.
I ought to call the SEC. Maybe even the President, because you're Un-American.Wizard: Thankfully it's not un-American to be a short-seller. On the other hand, Mr. Sell-Side; in the USA alone, the Government's SEC sees fit to permit Buy-Side to pay its mutual fund managers directly for advisory fees the shocking total of $80 billion dollars annually -- over 1.1% of over $7 trillion -- which is a travesty when, as Mr. Morningstar tells us...
So, the short selling is ok; it's the problem called "naked shorting".
I wrote another one in 2006 called “A Failure to Deliver” in which Kaimu pointed directly to the main offending culprit. Guess who? It was Jamie Dimon, the JP Morgan CEO who was the man giving testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Kaimu also outlined as he has on many occasions the dire straits facing Patrick Byrne in his fight against Wall Street. This is all coming full circle.
We are here to learn the truth, right? Re-read the “Failure to Deliver” article until you come to the point of it all – the problem at the DTCC that needs to be fixed.
The current rules don't require the brokers to fix the trades by buying shares to cover their short positions after 13 days, they merely say that if the trades aren't fixed, the broker can't do any more short-sales in that security without borrowing or arranging to borrow the stock.The Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., the New York clearing house that is owned by the big brokerage houses and whose mission is to settle and clear the lion's share of the daily stock transactions that occur in the markets, says it has no power to force brokers to fix the trades either, a fact that also frustrates critics of the current system.
"We don't have any power or legal authority to regulate or stop short-selling, naked or otherwise," the DTCC says on its Web site. "We also have no power to force member firms to close out or resolve fails to deliver."
About ten years ago, I gave a formal presentation in a major hearing conducted by the Canadian Securities Administrators, chaired by the heads of the nine major Provincial Securities Commissions. This hearing on the future of electronic markets, heard presentations from every axe-grinder in banking and capital markets in the world, from the Investment Dealers Association, all the stock exchanges and ETN’s, all the major info services, Bloomberg, Instinet, and so on.
The acting-Executive Director of the Ontario Securities Commission had asked me to present material that would serve the public interest. He gave me almost 30 minutes. So I gave my usual song-and-dance about the need to break up the broker-agent from the dealer-principal; separate the credit-based financial system from the capital market; and, along with flow diagrams even, I even showed how control of the Depository Trust & Clearing organization had to be taken away from HB&B, and put under the control of private banks that serve only the client.
The people in that room either didn’t understand the magnitude of what I was saying or they scoffed that I could break their control of the system. My associates have always said I am 15 years early.
I do agree that I am always thinking ahead, analyzing the problems, and formulating solutions. It helps me see the enemy. Patrick Byrne is not the enemy. Those Senators were staring for the afternoon at two of them, calling them wonderfully successful people and all. Yes, but for what reasons and at whose expense?
We will never have social equity unless and until the capital markets are freed of the iron fist of Humungous Bank & Broker.
I am taking time to teach you that what transpired in Congress this week, at least the pieces we were able to see on TV, was presented as a clown show, but in fact was a start to getting to the truth. All of you need to seize the moment. You have to understand that these people who run HB&B are an organized gang, hiding behind one another’s skirts, with no intention of giving up control over you. But you now see who they are. They put their pants on same as you and me. In fact, I’ll go so far to say they couldn’t carry the lunch pail of the average steelworker or auto assembly line worker who still have jobs that these people haven’t helped shipped off to countries that are cheaper but have bad labor practices, leaving 25% of Americans in debt to them with underwater mortgages and credit card debts they cannot escape.
Yes, finally, Mom & Pop got to see their masters, the people they have become slaves to. Recognizing the enemy is the start. Yes, these are Henry’s friends, and sad to say, unless Congress and the SEC do an about face here, the new system will be called Henry’s Rules.
To be crystal clear, I am not saying one bad thing about these firms; just about the control they have in the present structure and the executive managers who will do pretty much anything to keep in control. In fact, I said already my heart goes out to the Bear Stearns employees, who, like you, get paid to do a job and don’t expect to have their life-built pensions wiped out in a couple hours. I am happy to see them suing their bosses. What goes around comes around.
I was criticized, as I had expected, for saying two weeks ago that lawyers were changing the fundamental rules of capital markets, which is that a trade is a trade; not a maybe trade. The lawyers here were saying to me that they just carry the water for these investment bankers, and that’s where I disagree. A desperate banker doesn’t know the law, but will ask the lawyers what might be possible to help solve their dilemma. Lawyers seeking fees will not care a whit about the public interest, and that’s the problem. As soon as the JP Morgan-Bear-Fed deal was consummated at $2/share and reported, and then subsequently changed, the SEC (and Congress) had an obligation to the People to step in and stop the change. A deal was a deal. The bullet was out of the gun. Hundreds of millions of dollars, if not much more, was subsequently transacted on the basis that Bear had sold out for $2.
Congress also should be totally embarrassed that once Wall Street figured out the impact of the $29 billion guarantee, the Bear shares were worth more. By changing the deal, the JP Morgan shareholders got screwed because after the merger, there is greater dilution. And the public got screwed because if Bear shares were actually worth $10, then a full $29 billion guarantee from the Fed was not needed.
Now, it goes without saying that the new unwritten rule on Wall Street is that no investment bank of any large size is going to be allowed to fail; that the People’s money, not the shareholders capital, will stand behind the company debts and the mistakes of executive management. That offends me because I stand up for social equity, not socialism.
This latest situation in Washington is simply mind-boggling to the owners of capital in America who once had a measure of faith in their capital market. Now it is apparent that the market will be played by Henry’s Rules, and Mr. Moral Hazard had the arrogance to not even show his face at these crucial hearings. That’s not right.
A final note regarding the Treasury Secretary; I ask, is it possible under the freedom of information act to see Paulson’s income tax returns and his so-called blind trust? I think America had better awaken to what’s happening here before the upcoming change in the Administration, during which time certain people will be trying to accomplish whatever they can for themselves, Friends & Family.
This week the markets were in a state of confusion because of all the happenings in Washington. Traders are uncertain regarding the new power of HB&B, so far giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Global Economics Review
The US economy probably went recessive in December. The weight of the evidence, ie, the economic data, has been piling up and can no longer be denied.
Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.
US Motor Vehicle Sales Report for MarchUS Manufacturing Conditions Report of the ISM for March
US Construction Spending for February
US Corporate Layoffs Announced in March
The ADP US National Employment Report for March
US Durable and Non-Durable Factory Orders Data for February
So much for last week. Let’s look ahead.
Here is next week’s economic calendar:
US Consumer Credit Report for FebruaryUS Pending Home Sales Index for February
US Chain Store Sales for March
The ECB and BoE will be reporting their decisions and guidance on monetary policy at 7:00am ET and 7:45am ET respectively on Thursday.US International Trade data for February
The Weekly (April 5) Jobless Claims Report which has been skyrocketing in recent weeks.
US Import and Export Price Data for March which has been skyrocketing in recent months.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for April which has been plummeting since the start of 2007.
The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.
…the economies of Europe and Japan are almost as bad off as the US and are worsening week by week. I fully expect these economies to go into recession as well, which means that significantly more than 50 pct of the global economy will be in recession at the same time.The bad news gets worse because, as strong as the growth is in the emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), these markets are not unaffected by the others. I expect serious declines in the BRIC economic growth rates, and significant increases in their inflation rates, this year.
As I say, positive economic news is now infrequent, and the same is happening around the world. The already dangerous element of stagflation is now compounded by illiquid credit markets. The capital that is being injected by the Fed into the US market is merely replacing illiquid US mortgage-backed assets (now held by the Fed) with liquid funds that are being used to buy commodities and foreign securities, which is continuing to pressure the $USD.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
“Jock” is on sabbatical.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA stockcharts.com chart
For this most exciting week, 28 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 2 down.
This was a week spurred by a single day record gain, April 1, the biggest move since April 1, 2038, signaling the end of the Great Depression. How ironic that some people are saying this April Fool’s Day joke is signaling just the opposite. On that I am not so certain, but I am wary nonetheless.
By the end of the week, the DJIA and S&P 500 stocks were up +3.22% and +4.20% respectively. Friday was mixed.
In fact it was a mixed up week. Monday was generally firm, and then came Tuesday, rocketing about +150 Dow 30 points at the open, trapping the shorts, who caved in over the next 6 ½ hours of trading into Wed. morning, with a further +300 point rise in the DJIA. The rest of the week saw a lot of selling, however. Over the final 18 ½ hours of trading in NY, the Dow 30 dropped about -100 points, including a rallying move in mid- session trading on Friday.
But, really, the week was all about Tuesday, probably a forerunner to the testimony in the Congressional meetings over the next couple days in which it would become clear that Bear Stearns and JP Morgan had not only received a govt guarantee of some $29 billion of Bear Stearns illiquid and possibly dubious assets, but that the two had received a like amount in short-term (hopefully) borrowings from the Fed.
As I see it, HB&B made their move immediately before this testimony became apparent. In fact, all testimony to Congressional committees is supposed to be submitted days in advance and the chairs complained that these docs had been submitted (held?) to the last minute. Clearly, the TV shots showed these Congressmen reading the docs intently and pointing with one another to particular items of interest. But isn’t that another example of how Wall Street is purposeful in hiding transparency. If that wasn’t enough, the complicated responses they gave to the simplest questions only showed me that obfuscation was the name of their game.
So, here we are up on average +4.2% W/W, with the Financials (XLF) up +7.0%, but I don’t think the public feels elated.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 gained +4.86% and +4.47% respectively.
Interesting to me is that the Techs (XLK) were up +3.7% whereas the Semi-conductor component (SMH) rocketed +6.7%. SanDisk (SNDK), for example, was up +21.5% to $25.84.
Do you remember this: “SNDK, 22.52, 21.08, 16.57, 42.80, Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-03-12 at $22.52, +0.00% chg], after a 8 day AZ)”? SNDK had a Buy Alert Mar-12 at $22.52 and hit a subsequent high on Thursday at $27.07. That is a gain of +20.2% in 15 trading sessions.
As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY”
I think you can forget Yahoo (YHOO) from that list because it appears this weekend that Microsoft (MSFT) is zeroing in for the acquisition. That’s three weeks for the Yahoo Board to decide if they are going to accept a $40 billion offer. I don’t know why not? Nobody else has got that kind of money. Well, maybe JP Morgan knows where to get it!! (LOL)
I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other.
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
A week ago in this space I had an inkling there might be a small rally on Monday.
This week SPY futures dropped -0.39% from 132.08 to 131.56 even though the S&P 500 dropped -1.17% from 1329.5 to 1315.2. That differential might be setting up a small rally from an over-sold position on Monday. We’ll have to watch Asia-Pacific and Europe in the early hours.
Then along came Tuesday!!
This week, the S&P 500 jumped +4.20%, although Friday was flat.
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Individual Sector ETF Review
This week, there were 8 sectors (5 ETF’s) above SPY and 3 below. The worst performers were XLP, IYH and XLK. The best were XLF, SMH, and XLB.
I think I had some bad data in here last week. Sorry; this is a template and I zip right by stuff sometimes. It’s the only way I can write a book in a day. (LOL
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLB had a W/W gain of +5.14%, which follows a gain of +3.84% the previous week, to close at 77.31.
The winners in the energy sector this week were, once again, the stocks of the foreign oil producers and international oilfield services and drilling companies: PetroBrasil (PBR +9.8%), TransOcean (RIG +7.0%), CNOOC (CEO +5.6%), and Schlumberger (SLB +6.7%).
Crude Oil ($WTIC) enjoyed a big rally on Friday (+2.3%).
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

This week, Basic Materials (XLB +6.50%) continued the prior week rally (+5.20%), to close at 42.91.
All the foreign commodity producers rallied hugely: GGB (+18.3% W/W), PKX (+13.2%), BHP (+11.7%) and RTP (+11.5%). This occurred even as the $USD continued to strengthen (+0.50%), which makes me think that some of this Fed money is going from the People to Wall Street right into foreign stocks (perhaps ahead of a NYSE melt-down?). I have to wonder why (unless the USD collapses this week in which case that move in the equities was a forerunner) because once the US equity market caves in, it’s usually the international stocks that get pummeled worse, particularly Brazil.
But, the jury is out, I think. I added that (the I think part) because I know that the gold bugs and the Wall St Bulls believe that prices are going to the moon. That’s what makes a market.
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLI (Industrials) gained +4.23% this week to close at 38.40.
Funny how GE gained just +2.59% while Fluor (FLR) continues to rumble (+8.93%), up from $105 in Feb to a recent $150. Isn’t that a sight for my dyslexic eyes? I had to type it twice before I read it properly.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) roared, up +4.98% W/W to 32.05.
There was a loss (-0.47%) on Friday though. Same-store sales will be reported this coming week, and most of the retailers will be reporting March sales. I just wonder how bad it’s going to be.
Except for Dillard’s (DDS +8.0% on Friday) and Circuit City (up +6.2% on Friday), the last couple days this week took some big hits in my Retailer Monitor.
That’s not to say there’s any insider trading going on. (LOL) It could actually be real investigative analysts figuring out that “no money for home mortgage payments” also means “no shoes for baby”.
The volatility in this group leads me to believe it has become the home of day traders, something like the Internet stocks of 1999. It’s hard to believe that stocks like Brunswick Corp (BC) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are up and down by 8-10% W/W.
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, XLP gained +1.68% to close at 28.37, which put this ETF 12 out of 12, the laggard amongst th
