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April 6, 2008
Week in Review #14 (2008-04-06)
During this week’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee from Bear Stearns and JP Morgan, the world's leading bankers from Humungous Bank & Broker seemed to be in tears over the naked shorting, organized and otherwise, that had gone on in the BSC stock, going so far even as to infer that that problem, not the illiquid assets of Bear unwanted by other bankers, was the real issue.
Surprise, surprise; only when their houses are affected by vermin do these people speak up and admit that just maybe Patrick Byrne of Overstock.com, whom the same illegal short selling syndicates have tried to destroy, slander and humiliate, may have been right after all.
(From the Overstock.com website) "Patrick Byrne is waging a fight with Wall Street over naked short selling. He believes that, through the practice of naked shorting, Wall Street is cheating Main Street America and destroying small companies for a profit. Byrne feels that the SEC is failing to protect retail investors and small companies because it has been captured by Wall Street, and that the New York financial press is similarly co-opted. Byrne believes that the SEC's efforts to eliminate this abusive practice are falling short, not simply for Overstock (which has itself been on the Regulation SHO Threshold list for over two years), but in a way that creates the possibility of systemic risk for our financial world."
Of course Patrick Byrne was right. He was up against the most powerful network in the world, HB&B, and Patrick is just a guy like you and me, trying to make a living doing the right thing, while the last thing the leaders of HB&B want is social equity. They want to control us, plain and simple. Now that naked shorting is threatening their control of the capital markets, they speak up.
That is the entire point to my blog, which is to say that the owners of capital have been made subservient to those who run the credit-based financial services industry in the world, which has been headed by Mr. Moral Hazard himself, Henry Paulson.
Who were the people who permitted naked short selling in the past? Why, it’s HB&B. If these investment bankers had refused to allow unsupported short sale trading, this issue would be a non-starter. But they liked the extra commissions and knew that the practice was being done by their best clients and friends, so they allowed it.
We have discussed this issue at length here, in full support of our friend Dave Patch who has taken this fight to the SEC.
Finally some positive response from the SEC. Well done Patchie.
From: OIG [mailto:OIG@SEC.GOV] Sent: Friday, April 04, 2008 1:14 PM To: Patch, David (GE Infra, Aviation, Non-GE, US) Subject: Proposed Response on Naked Short Selling Dear Mr. Patch, We are planning on sending an update regarding the naked short selling issue to the investors who have previously expressed their concerns on this subject to us. Specifically, we plan to send out an email that mentions our meeting with you. We wanted to show you our proposed email (which we've copied below) before we send it to the investors who have corresponded with us. Please let us know if you have any thoughts on our proposed email. “ *** You previously contacted the Office of Inspector General on the subject of naked short selling. We would like to provide you with an update on our progress regarding this issue. We have conducted a thorough review of all the correspondence provided to us about naked short selling. We also met with Mr. David Patch on Wednesday, March 26, 2008, at which time he gave us an extensive briefing on this topic. We understand the seriousness of the concerns about naked short selling and have begun looking into potential audit issues related to this matter. Thank you again for providing us with information about naked short selling and we will keep you advised of further developments on this topic. *** “ Thank you, Mary Beth Sullivan Counsel to the Inspector General Office of Inspector General U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission
What we need to do is to send letters of support (e-mail) to Dave Patch (idpatch@comcast.net), particularly if you are concerned about specific cases where you believe the illegal naked shorting to be happening. Let Patchie deliver them to the SEC, where they will be heard.
By the way, I once did a blog headed "Short selling is not un-American". I couldn't find the article, but this reference was to another one that was kind of fun doing.
Mr. Sell-Side: Stop this nonsense. You'll never get rid of me! You short-seller, you.
I ought to call the SEC. Maybe even the President, because you're Un-American.Wizard: Thankfully it's not un-American to be a short-seller. On the other hand, Mr. Sell-Side; in the USA alone, the Government's SEC sees fit to permit Buy-Side to pay its mutual fund managers directly for advisory fees the shocking total of $80 billion dollars annually -- over 1.1% of over $7 trillion -- which is a travesty when, as Mr. Morningstar tells us...
So, the short selling is ok; it's the problem called "naked shorting".
I wrote another one in 2006 called “A Failure to Deliver” in which Kaimu pointed directly to the main offending culprit. Guess who? It was Jamie Dimon, the JP Morgan CEO who was the man giving testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Kaimu also outlined as he has on many occasions the dire straits facing Patrick Byrne in his fight against Wall Street. This is all coming full circle.
We are here to learn the truth, right? Re-read the “Failure to Deliver” article until you come to the point of it all – the problem at the DTCC that needs to be fixed.
The current rules don't require the brokers to fix the trades by buying shares to cover their short positions after 13 days, they merely say that if the trades aren't fixed, the broker can't do any more short-sales in that security without borrowing or arranging to borrow the stock.The Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., the New York clearing house that is owned by the big brokerage houses and whose mission is to settle and clear the lion's share of the daily stock transactions that occur in the markets, says it has no power to force brokers to fix the trades either, a fact that also frustrates critics of the current system.
"We don't have any power or legal authority to regulate or stop short-selling, naked or otherwise," the DTCC says on its Web site. "We also have no power to force member firms to close out or resolve fails to deliver."
About ten years ago, I gave a formal presentation in a major hearing conducted by the Canadian Securities Administrators, chaired by the heads of the nine major Provincial Securities Commissions. This hearing on the future of electronic markets, heard presentations from every axe-grinder in banking and capital markets in the world, from the Investment Dealers Association, all the stock exchanges and ETN’s, all the major info services, Bloomberg, Instinet, and so on.
The acting-Executive Director of the Ontario Securities Commission had asked me to present material that would serve the public interest. He gave me almost 30 minutes. So I gave my usual song-and-dance about the need to break up the broker-agent from the dealer-principal; separate the credit-based financial system from the capital market; and, along with flow diagrams even, I even showed how control of the Depository Trust & Clearing organization had to be taken away from HB&B, and put under the control of private banks that serve only the client.
The people in that room either didn’t understand the magnitude of what I was saying or they scoffed that I could break their control of the system. My associates have always said I am 15 years early.
I do agree that I am always thinking ahead, analyzing the problems, and formulating solutions. It helps me see the enemy. Patrick Byrne is not the enemy. Those Senators were staring for the afternoon at two of them, calling them wonderfully successful people and all. Yes, but for what reasons and at whose expense?
We will never have social equity unless and until the capital markets are freed of the iron fist of Humungous Bank & Broker.
I am taking time to teach you that what transpired in Congress this week, at least the pieces we were able to see on TV, was presented as a clown show, but in fact was a start to getting to the truth. All of you need to seize the moment. You have to understand that these people who run HB&B are an organized gang, hiding behind one another’s skirts, with no intention of giving up control over you. But you now see who they are. They put their pants on same as you and me. In fact, I’ll go so far to say they couldn’t carry the lunch pail of the average steelworker or auto assembly line worker who still have jobs that these people haven’t helped shipped off to countries that are cheaper but have bad labor practices, leaving 25% of Americans in debt to them with underwater mortgages and credit card debts they cannot escape.
Yes, finally, Mom & Pop got to see their masters, the people they have become slaves to. Recognizing the enemy is the start. Yes, these are Henry’s friends, and sad to say, unless Congress and the SEC do an about face here, the new system will be called Henry’s Rules.
To be crystal clear, I am not saying one bad thing about these firms; just about the control they have in the present structure and the executive managers who will do pretty much anything to keep in control. In fact, I said already my heart goes out to the Bear Stearns employees, who, like you, get paid to do a job and don’t expect to have their life-built pensions wiped out in a couple hours. I am happy to see them suing their bosses. What goes around comes around.
I was criticized, as I had expected, for saying two weeks ago that lawyers were changing the fundamental rules of capital markets, which is that a trade is a trade; not a maybe trade. The lawyers here were saying to me that they just carry the water for these investment bankers, and that’s where I disagree. A desperate banker doesn’t know the law, but will ask the lawyers what might be possible to help solve their dilemma. Lawyers seeking fees will not care a whit about the public interest, and that’s the problem. As soon as the JP Morgan-Bear-Fed deal was consummated at $2/share and reported, and then subsequently changed, the SEC (and Congress) had an obligation to the People to step in and stop the change. A deal was a deal. The bullet was out of the gun. Hundreds of millions of dollars, if not much more, was subsequently transacted on the basis that Bear had sold out for $2.
Congress also should be totally embarrassed that once Wall Street figured out the impact of the $29 billion guarantee, the Bear shares were worth more. By changing the deal, the JP Morgan shareholders got screwed because after the merger, there is greater dilution. And the public got screwed because if Bear shares were actually worth $10, then a full $29 billion guarantee from the Fed was not needed.
Now, it goes without saying that the new unwritten rule on Wall Street is that no investment bank of any large size is going to be allowed to fail; that the People’s money, not the shareholders capital, will stand behind the company debts and the mistakes of executive management. That offends me because I stand up for social equity, not socialism.
This latest situation in Washington is simply mind-boggling to the owners of capital in America who once had a measure of faith in their capital market. Now it is apparent that the market will be played by Henry’s Rules, and Mr. Moral Hazard had the arrogance to not even show his face at these crucial hearings. That’s not right.
A final note regarding the Treasury Secretary; I ask, is it possible under the freedom of information act to see Paulson’s income tax returns and his so-called blind trust? I think America had better awaken to what’s happening here before the upcoming change in the Administration, during which time certain people will be trying to accomplish whatever they can for themselves, Friends & Family.
This week the markets were in a state of confusion because of all the happenings in Washington. Traders are uncertain regarding the new power of HB&B, so far giving them the benefit of the doubt.
Global Economics Review
The US economy probably went recessive in December. The weight of the evidence, ie, the economic data, has been piling up and can no longer be denied.
Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.
US Motor Vehicle Sales Report for MarchUS Manufacturing Conditions Report of the ISM for March
US Construction Spending for February
US Corporate Layoffs Announced in March
The ADP US National Employment Report for March
US Durable and Non-Durable Factory Orders Data for February
So much for last week. Let’s look ahead.
Here is next week’s economic calendar:
US Consumer Credit Report for FebruaryUS Pending Home Sales Index for February
US Chain Store Sales for March
The ECB and BoE will be reporting their decisions and guidance on monetary policy at 7:00am ET and 7:45am ET respectively on Thursday.US International Trade data for February
The Weekly (April 5) Jobless Claims Report which has been skyrocketing in recent weeks.
US Import and Export Price Data for March which has been skyrocketing in recent months.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for April which has been plummeting since the start of 2007.
The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.
…the economies of Europe and Japan are almost as bad off as the US and are worsening week by week. I fully expect these economies to go into recession as well, which means that significantly more than 50 pct of the global economy will be in recession at the same time.The bad news gets worse because, as strong as the growth is in the emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), these markets are not unaffected by the others. I expect serious declines in the BRIC economic growth rates, and significant increases in their inflation rates, this year.
As I say, positive economic news is now infrequent, and the same is happening around the world. The already dangerous element of stagflation is now compounded by illiquid credit markets. The capital that is being injected by the Fed into the US market is merely replacing illiquid US mortgage-backed assets (now held by the Fed) with liquid funds that are being used to buy commodities and foreign securities, which is continuing to pressure the $USD.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
“Jock” is on sabbatical.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA stockcharts.com chart
For this most exciting week, 28 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 2 down.
This was a week spurred by a single day record gain, April 1, the biggest move since April 1, 2038, signaling the end of the Great Depression. How ironic that some people are saying this April Fool’s Day joke is signaling just the opposite. On that I am not so certain, but I am wary nonetheless.
By the end of the week, the DJIA and S&P 500 stocks were up +3.22% and +4.20% respectively. Friday was mixed.
In fact it was a mixed up week. Monday was generally firm, and then came Tuesday, rocketing about +150 Dow 30 points at the open, trapping the shorts, who caved in over the next 6 ½ hours of trading into Wed. morning, with a further +300 point rise in the DJIA. The rest of the week saw a lot of selling, however. Over the final 18 ½ hours of trading in NY, the Dow 30 dropped about -100 points, including a rallying move in mid- session trading on Friday.
But, really, the week was all about Tuesday, probably a forerunner to the testimony in the Congressional meetings over the next couple days in which it would become clear that Bear Stearns and JP Morgan had not only received a govt guarantee of some $29 billion of Bear Stearns illiquid and possibly dubious assets, but that the two had received a like amount in short-term (hopefully) borrowings from the Fed.
As I see it, HB&B made their move immediately before this testimony became apparent. In fact, all testimony to Congressional committees is supposed to be submitted days in advance and the chairs complained that these docs had been submitted (held?) to the last minute. Clearly, the TV shots showed these Congressmen reading the docs intently and pointing with one another to particular items of interest. But isn’t that another example of how Wall Street is purposeful in hiding transparency. If that wasn’t enough, the complicated responses they gave to the simplest questions only showed me that obfuscation was the name of their game.
So, here we are up on average +4.2% W/W, with the Financials (XLF) up +7.0%, but I don’t think the public feels elated.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 gained +4.86% and +4.47% respectively.
Interesting to me is that the Techs (XLK) were up +3.7% whereas the Semi-conductor component (SMH) rocketed +6.7%. SanDisk (SNDK), for example, was up +21.5% to $25.84.
Do you remember this: “SNDK, 22.52, 21.08, 16.57, 42.80, Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-03-12 at $22.52, +0.00% chg], after a 8 day AZ)”? SNDK had a Buy Alert Mar-12 at $22.52 and hit a subsequent high on Thursday at $27.07. That is a gain of +20.2% in 15 trading sessions.
As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk. If you want, add a couple like SNDK and ADBE:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY”
I think you can forget Yahoo (YHOO) from that list because it appears this weekend that Microsoft (MSFT) is zeroing in for the acquisition. That’s three weeks for the Yahoo Board to decide if they are going to accept a $40 billion offer. I don’t know why not? Nobody else has got that kind of money. Well, maybe JP Morgan knows where to get it!! (LOL)
I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other.
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
A week ago in this space I had an inkling there might be a small rally on Monday.
This week SPY futures dropped -0.39% from 132.08 to 131.56 even though the S&P 500 dropped -1.17% from 1329.5 to 1315.2. That differential might be setting up a small rally from an over-sold position on Monday. We’ll have to watch Asia-Pacific and Europe in the early hours.
Then along came Tuesday!!
This week, the S&P 500 jumped +4.20%, although Friday was flat.
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data:
SPY Weekly data:
SPY Daily data:
The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
Individual Sector ETF Review
This week, there were 8 sectors (5 ETF’s) above SPY and 3 below. The worst performers were XLP, IYH and XLK. The best were XLF, SMH, and XLB.
I think I had some bad data in here last week. Sorry; this is a template and I zip right by stuff sometimes. It’s the only way I can write a book in a day. (LOL
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:
XLE Weekly data:
XLE Daily data:
XLB had a W/W gain of +5.14%, which follows a gain of +3.84% the previous week, to close at 77.31.
The winners in the energy sector this week were, once again, the stocks of the foreign oil producers and international oilfield services and drilling companies: PetroBrasil (PBR +9.8%), TransOcean (RIG +7.0%), CNOOC (CEO +5.6%), and Schlumberger (SLB +6.7%).
Crude Oil ($WTIC) enjoyed a big rally on Friday (+2.3%).
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
XLB Daily data:
This week, Basic Materials (XLB +6.50%) continued the prior week rally (+5.20%), to close at 42.91.
All the foreign commodity producers rallied hugely: GGB (+18.3% W/W), PKX (+13.2%), BHP (+11.7%) and RTP (+11.5%). This occurred even as the $USD continued to strengthen (+0.50%), which makes me think that some of this Fed money is going from the People to Wall Street right into foreign stocks (perhaps ahead of a NYSE melt-down?). I have to wonder why (unless the USD collapses this week in which case that move in the equities was a forerunner) because once the US equity market caves in, it’s usually the international stocks that get pummeled worse, particularly Brazil.
But, the jury is out, I think. I added that (the I think part) because I know that the gold bugs and the Wall St Bulls believe that prices are going to the moon. That’s what makes a market.
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:
XLI Weekly data:
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLI (Industrials) gained +4.23% this week to close at 38.40.
Funny how GE gained just +2.59% while Fluor (FLR) continues to rumble (+8.93%), up from $105 in Feb to a recent $150. Isn’t that a sight for my dyslexic eyes? I had to type it twice before I read it properly.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:
XLY Weekly data:
XLY Daily data:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) roared, up +4.98% W/W to 32.05.
There was a loss (-0.47%) on Friday though. Same-store sales will be reported this coming week, and most of the retailers will be reporting March sales. I just wonder how bad it’s going to be.
Except for Dillard’s (DDS +8.0% on Friday) and Circuit City (up +6.2% on Friday), the last couple days this week took some big hits in my Retailer Monitor.
That’s not to say there’s any insider trading going on. (LOL) It could actually be real investigative analysts figuring out that “no money for home mortgage payments” also means “no shoes for baby”.
The volatility in this group leads me to believe it has become the home of day traders, something like the Internet stocks of 1999. It’s hard to believe that stocks like Brunswick Corp (BC) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) are up and down by 8-10% W/W.
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:
XLP Weekly data:
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, XLP gained +1.68% to close at 28.37, which put this ETF 12 out of 12, the laggard amongst the group.
There were some nice winners, like SBUX, PDA, ABV and DEO, but KO and PEP were losers.
Speaking of Pepsico; dibs on the CEO’s job. The person gets to be limo’d or helicoptered down from beautiful White Plains NY to his Board meetings at the Fed. He gets to miss the people in between, but anyway that’s my idea of a proper job
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:
IYH Weekly data:
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
IYH (healthcare) gained +2.13% W/W to close at 64.19, which is 9th out of the 10 sector performers, and 11th out of 12 on my ETF list.
Is there a doctor in the house? I need to check my blood pressure. Biotech ($BTK) closed this week at $772.68 (up +7.44% W/W). Who would have guess there would have been such an extreme Bear market rally on Tuesday? Anyway, here’s what I wrote a week ago in this space:
During this Bear market, traders might want to look at some of the smaller Biotech companies. Their stocks are now trading in some cases down near their cash per share value. When the next Bull market starts to roar, the Biotechs ($BTK -1.40% to 719.19) will likely be a leader. That may be a while yet, so there is time to study these companies. Here is the chart link.
This only goes to show that when stocks are trading at near cash value, and down in the Accumulation Zone with bubbling Buy Alerts, you really don’t have time to study them.
In any case, there are five well-known ETFs for Biotech: BBH (+2.0% W/W), XBI (+6.2% W/W), PBE (+4.3% W/W), IBB (+5.6% W/W), and FBT (+7.7% W/W). Average them out, and that’s not a bad month this week!!
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:
XLF Weekly data:
XLF Daily data:
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, the Financials (XLF +6.94% W/W following the previous Friday’s gain of +6.02%) were far and away the leaders of the rally.
And why not? Henry Paulson, the People’s keeper of the Treasury, has ensured his Friends & Family on Wall Street are well treated. You know who’s paying for all this, right?
The volatility in this sector is even greater than Mom & Pop’s retailers. But I’ll tell you, XLF is not Mom & Pop’s bankers.
This week, can you say, without smiling, that UBS can write down $19 billion in dubious assets they own and tell the public they have to quickly raise $12 billion in new equity (because the ECB isn’t as friendly as the Fed), and the stock still rockets +21.2% W/W. Image that; these are the free markets that price the value of assets. (LOL)
What happened here is that the Fed has now become the world’s banker, just like I suppose the US military has become… (you know). Incredible as it might seem, there will be no major international bank go under because that would be a counter-party risk management issue that couldn’t be managed. It would bring down the whole system because JP Morgan, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and the rest of Wall Street lends and borrows every day from UBS. Ergo: the Fed to the rescue of a Swiss bank that a long time ago stopped being Swiss, in the ‘prudent’ sense of the word.
Did you take note of the biggest gains W/W on Wall Street. Yes, you might have guessed, they were the biggest problems: Lehman, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, which were up +16.3%, +15.8%, and +15.6% W/W respectively (but not respectfully I might add).
Did you check out the comments I made in the Saturday Report? The world is illiquid and in fear of shutting down, but the banks are rocking and rolling. Mr. Moral Hazard has really pulled one over on America.
Oh, I forgot: the new reality (illiquidity) vs 1-800-HOPE. Donald Trump casting is looking for actors for his new Apprentice Show. We saw several auditions in Congress this week. The world was watching.
Getting practice for the Summer Olympics, I was rating the nonsense… Dimon 9.9, Geithner 9.6, Bernanke 9.2, Cox 10.0,… It doesn’t get better than the awesome performance of the simplest questions… Mr. Cox, do you know what city this is? How many fingers am I holding up?...
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data:
SMH Weekly data:
SMH Daily data:
Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLK Monthly data:
XLK Weekly data:
XLK Daily data:
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Semi-conductors (SMH) gained +6.69% W/W, while Technology (XLK) gained +3.70% W/W. The semi’s had SanDisk (SNDK) pumping chips, up +21.5% W/W. This is what I had to say a week ago about SNDK:
SNDK which was a huge loser a week ago (-10.7%) was in recovery mode (+3.5%) after the very good and hugely popular California high-tech writer John Dvorak called it a turn-around. John apparently also liked Sigma Designs (SIGM). I too like both these companies, but a Bear market is a challenging time to buy them… Bear markets are characterized by lower lows and lower highs, despite in many cases improving fundamentals, like book-to-bill ratios. If you are going to trade stocks (even buy-and-hold trades), then you need to look at the whole picture: fundamentals, quant and technicals, and macro economics…. But, I do admit there are a handful (not that I could lift them) of really good analysts and writers, and John Dvorak is one of them.
But, I do admit… I missed the gain of +20.2% in 15 trading sessions from the Buy Alert Mar-12 at $22.52 to the subsequent high on Thursday at $27.07.
The problem is that I am spending too much time on distractions, like books and condos and licenses and business deals. I have to bring things to a head because working 100-hour weeks every week is not fun. Sometimes, yes; all the time, no.
Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)
Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYZ Monthly data:
IYZ Weekly data:
IYZ Daily data:
Telecom (IYZ) gained +4.59% W/W to 24.13. The loss on Friday was -0.87%, which happened a week ago on the last day of the week too.
AT&T (T) gained +2.2% W/W but was down -1.36% on Friday, while Verizon (VZ) gained +4.16% W/W and lost -1.92% on Friday.
Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)
Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLU Monthly data:
XLU Weekly data:
XLU Daily data:
XLU (Utilities) gained +4.09% W/W to 39.17, and dropped -0.10% on Friday, which was market-weighted.
Exelon (EXC) gained +4.28% W/W, including huge gains on Monday and Tuesday.
A few weeks ago I wrote: “I still like the nuclear power generation companies. Exelon (EXC 79.75) was a Buy in the low 70’s in January, and may get back there again at some point.”
Then I wrote, “EXC closed at $80.40 and traded as high as 82.46 on Wed. I’d still like to buy it down in the low 70’s.” Last week, I added, “EXC closed down -0.80% to $79.76 after losing -1.38% on Friday. The chart shows me it will be profitable to wait.”
You might say that gain of +4.3% W/W is getting the stock closer to a Sell. (LOL) I’m still looking to buy it in the low 70’s. But this is not a rapid trader. It’s once every several years.
Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| 6 Month | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.67 |
| 2 Year | 1.81 | 1.89 | 1.64 | 1.62 |
| 3 Year | 1.71 | 1.79 | 1.52 | 1.59 |
| 5 Year | 2.61 | 2.73 | 2.51 | 2.57 |
| 10 Year | 3.47 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.69 |
| 30 Year | 4.31 | 4.37 | 4.31 | 4.60 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.56 | 2.51 | 2.54 | 2.60 |
| 2yr AAA | 2.40 | 2.46 | 2.40 | 2.42 |
| 2yr A | 3.06 | 3.02 | 2.72 | 2.73 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.07 | 3.09 | 2.95 | 2.95 |
| 5yr AA | 3.25 | 3.35 | 3.12 | 2.98 |
| 5yr A | 3.26 | 3.27 | 3.06 | 3.36 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.75 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 3.82 |
| 10yr AA | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.96 | 3.68 |
| 10yr A | 4.16 | 4.17 | 3.99 | 4.30 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.67 | 4.72 | 4.75 | 4.69 |
| 20yr AA | 4.86 | 4.91 | 4.97 | 4.85 |
| 20yr A | 4.78 | 4.88 | 5.10 | 5.02 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.82 | 3.95 | 3.91 | 3.36 |
| 2yr A | 3.68 | 3.83 | 3.64 | 3.21 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.75 | 4.07 | 4.00 | 3.96 |
| 5yr AA | 4.20 | 4.68 | 4.29 | 4.17 |
| 5yr A | 4.90 | 4.84 | 5.23 | 4.47 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.67 | 5.77 | 4.67 | 5.35 |
| 10yr AA | 5.55 | 5.86 | 5.82 | 5.53 |
| 10yr A | 5.33 | 5.51 | 5.46 | 5.97 |
| 20yr AAA | 6.41 | 6.53 | 6.44 | 6.54 |
| 20yr AA | 5.90 | 6.26 | 6.12 | 6.64 |
| 20yr A | 6.28 | 6.39 | 6.31 | 6.41 |
Yields on the 2-year through 10-year Treasury bonds gained +17 to +3 basis points (bp), while the T-Bills and the 30-year T-Bond yields remained flat.
It’s hard to write about yields because the market is in silly season with interventionists swarming about. I say, if you are not in the room, you are out of the deal. Who knows what these guys have cooked up? All I know that the import prices are up about +7.0% Y/Y and the consumer is fed up.
US Import and Export Price Data for March which has been skyrocketing in recent months.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for April which has been plummeting since the start of 2007.
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interest rates and bond yields.
Interactive Daily data charts:
Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
In a great week for the Financials, what can anybody expect from Countrywide, Fannie and Freddie except greatness? CFC (+4.8%), FNM (+16.6%) and FRE (+8.5%) were all up this week because traders now figure these three plus the Federal Reserve Bank will all soon be departments of the Federal Government.
What’s that about “full faith and trust”?
Oh man, now somebody (Obama maybe?) is going to come along and spoil the party by saying that he’s sick and tired and won’t take it anymore. Then where will the Bulls be.
I’ll give you a hint. They’ll be carrying placards on Wall Street demanding impeachment of President Obama, for betraying the principles of socialism.
I say Wall St got into this mess and Wall St should get themselves out of it.
The TLT dropped -0.37% W/W and -1.68% the prior week, to close at 95.20.
There was a nice gain of +0.91% on Friday.
The TIP lost -0.67% W/W and -0.71% the prior week, despite a gain on Friday of +0.57%.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts
SHY Monthly data series chart:
IEF Monthly data series chart:
TLT Monthly data series chart:
AGG Monthly data series chart:
LQD Monthly data series chart:
TIP Monthly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
SHY Weekly data series chart:
IEF Weekly data series chart:
TLT Weekly data series chart:
AGG Weekly data series chart:
LQD Weekly data series chart:
TIP Weekly data series chart:
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
The $CRB gained just +0.14% W/W to close at 395.09.
As I wrote last week, “unless the Fed or the Wall Street loan sharks come up with the vigorish to play this market, commodity prices sink. In a Bear market within a rapidly receding economy, with financial institution counter-party risks on the rise, buying commodity prices higher is a fool’s game. My opinion, but then this is my blog.”
I note that hardened gold bugs disagree. All I can say is that “Buy and Hold” died as a wealth management strategy some time ago. Traders today must be more flexible, nimble even.
But I would appreciate any and all who join the Discourse to not say Bill says or said this and I say that. If you want to participate, it’s free and open, as long as you follow Bill’s Rules, which is if you have something to say, say it. Let people agree or disagree. If you want to mention Bill, that’s fine, but you have to follow Bill’s Rule #2, which is that (i) you have to let Bill speak for himself, and (ii) if you do quote Bill, please do it in context.
I’d like this Discourse to be even more open that that, but the problem is that in eight hours there might be 100 or 200 comments, many about me, which I probably don’t see until the damage has been done. You see, this blog is free, which means I do it when I can, and many days, especially recently, I’m busy on work stuff.
The other point I’d like to make is that it appears that some of the people here need to be assisted by a professional advisor. This is a many-to-many relationship-based blog. I will not go down the road of potentially being seen as giving specific advice. The truth is I don’t know who almost all of you are. Advice needs to be given on a one to one basis. In fact, it’s the law.
Oh, the reality. I wish it were different.
I bring it up in this section because every time there is a commodity cycle that peaks, even temporarily, there are hard feelings by people who ought to get a better grip on their emotions. If I had more time, I would phrase the wording differently – the kinder, gentler Bill, if you will – but I am getting close to my allotted time for the Sunday WIR.
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) lifted +0.58% W/W, which is nothing to speak of, so I won’t get into the details of inventories, and all that number stuff. The contracts closed at $106.23, which by my count is a very high number, and an unfriendly one to the US consumer who is already embattled.
“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”
The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 99.47 (amazing!), and the 200d MA is 87.25.
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Gold & Precious Metals Review
$GOLD dropped -$23.30 (-2.49% W/W) to 913.20, and you’d think some gold bugs hit the jackpot or the motherlode or whatever. Enough already.
As I pointed out a week ago, “I haven’t a clue why the screaming goldbugs are so wild. They ought to be crushed that the price hit 1033.90 (two weeks ago) Monday. Why, if I lost almost -12% of my capital in (thirteen) sessions, I’d be in tears.”
I just brought that up to date in case you missed the point.
The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 940.45, and the 200d MA is 798.74. So the current price is well below the 50-day MA.
I summed up my opinions on Gold a week ago:
As you can tell, I am not too wrapped up in the precious metals these days. I’d rather be in cash for a while. Let another Wall Street bank or three collapse and I’ll be ready to hit the Buy button following the collapse of commodity prices. Yes, for sure, I do believe we haven’t seen anywhere near the top of the gold cycle for the next few years.It’s just that I’d rather buy something special at $800 or lower that presently is marked up to $936.50. The fact it was on sale !! at $1033.90 less than (three) weeks ago doesn’t impress me. I have traded gold too many years to get sucked in to a bad trade.
Being dynamited in a series of explosions in a gold mine up near the Arctic Circle 20+ years ago, where I lost half my hearing, is part of my skin in the game. You might say I am not one to try swimming upstream carrying gold bricks in each hand.
Overcome your greed. Let the price come to you. Gold is money and in a couple years it will be worth that much more.
Yes, I think that Congress will be voted out en masse if they support the Paulson Plan. The public will not stand for it. Even the banker’s employees are suing them, so I cannot imagine any voter support for a Congressman who agrees to put the People’s money behind these bankers. The People know that with industry bonuses of $38 billion each year for a few years now, a banker has no need to be dialing 1-800-HOPE.
That reality may be the hammer on gold. I’m just waiting to hear the elected reps speak up to their constituents.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.
Spot silver chart for the week
This week, $SILVER lost -1.03% to close at 17.75.
Let me remind you that $SILVER was $21.44 just thirteen sessions ago.
Let the Silver price come to you.
For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 18.18, and the 200d MA is 14.88. The current price is still below the 50-day MA.
If you are a Precious Metals Bull, let’s see if silver and gold can get above the 50-day MA before we start dancing. As far as I’m concerned, until that happens, the music has stopped.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
This week $PLAT lost -18.30 (-0.89%) to $2030.50. That’s three weeks of losses in a row.
The 50-day MA is 1988.45 and the 200-day MA is 1541.33. Note that the current price is still above the 50-day MA, whereas the price of gold, silver and palladium is not.
Spot platinum chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
$PALLADIUM lost -$6.65/oz W/W to 448.25. The high was $600.00 four weeks ago, which is a rather large haircut.
The 50-day MA is now 472.65 and the 200-day MA is 391.38. Note that the current price is well below the 50-day MA.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
This week, $COPPER gained +12.30 (after last week’s gain of +$25.80) on the contracts to 395.45.
Are traders thinking about economic contraction? The high was 402.40 three weeks ago, which I think was the cycle high, so $COPPER is right there.
As I opined a week ago, “In my view, a recessionary economy cannot support these high prices for copper. Also, a credit contraction cannot support the continued speculative pumping of precious metals. But I do agree with those who feel that JP Morgan and others have controlled this market for a long time, and that prices for $COPPER are where Humungous Bankers want them to be until it suits them otherwise.”
The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 366.22 and the 200-day MA is 343.05.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
This week, the $XAU gained +2.45% W/W to 184.68, largely on Friday’s gain of 1.82%.
Clearly, the gold bugs are hoping that the share prices precede the bullion price movement, as is typical.
The 50d MA for $XAU is 187.14, and the 200d MA is 168.71. Note that the current price is still below the 50-day MA.
I am negative on the larger cap goldminers that are held by hedge funds, but recently I wrote, “That’s not to say there are not some spectacular values in the developing juniors.” Hopefully, we will issue some names soon. Unfortunately, I have too much on my plate to also do that report. I do understand that it’s coming along.
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Weekly data:
GDX Daily data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Forex Review
The $USD has gained some more strength, this week up +0.50% to 71.97 from 71.61.
The Pound was flat, and the Euro a little soft. The Yen was a lot soft and the Loonie gained over +1%.
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:
The Euro ($XEU) dropped -0.28% W/W to close at 1.5730, but had a good day Friday (+0.33%).
Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
The Pound was flat at 199.29.
The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 198.39 and 201.42 respectively, so, as I was opining last week, the Pound is fairly close to its true value.
It’s the Euro I think that is way over priced.
Weekly British Pound Index:
Daily British Pound Index:
Weekly Japanese Yen Index:
The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -2.07% W/W to 97.24.
The Yen’s 50-day MA is 96.14 and the 200-day MA is 89.24.
A week ago in this space, I opined, “I think the Yen is over-priced and soon to head lower against the USD.” Of course, I didn’t think by that much, and I did not think that the DJIA would have boomed so much. This is a dance, for sure.
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +1.23 (+1.26%) this week to close Friday at 99.10.
That’s what an ex-Goldman Sachs man in the Bank of Canada can do when receiving a call from his ex-boss. Canada doesn’t need a US peso. It needs -0.94% of a US peso, or thereabouts. (LOL)
Well, funny to me anyway.
The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.86 and 98.85 respectively, which means the current price (99.10) is between both.
Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
International Equity Markets Review
The FTSE (5495 to 5693 to 5947), DAX (6314 to 6560 to 6763) and CAC (4534 to 4696 to 4901) all moved up this week again.
The Nikkei 225 of Japan moved from 12820 to 13293. The Shanghai Composite (3446), Hong Kong Hang Seng (24265), Aussie All Ords (5663), and BSE 30 of India (15343) saw losses only for India and Shanghai.
The Toronto Composite (13668) and Bovespa of Brazil (64446) were stronger, especially the Bovespa.
I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.
I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices.
The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart
Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart
Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart
Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:
Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
US Equity Markets Review
The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had another huge burst of prices that followed the pre-holiday Thursday a week earlier. Mostly Financials driven. As I said, Wall St Talking Heads were being sent to Financial Entertainment TV wearing clown costumes (“LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL”).
Five weeks ago, the DJIA closed at 12266. This week the close was 12609, which is a gain of +343 points (in five weeks of Fed pumping in maybe $300 billion on the bankers 1-800-HELP line. But, in just 7.5 hours of trading on the NYSE on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, there was a move of some +450 Dow 30 points.
So, where’s the beef?
When you start to ponder that $300 billion the Fed pumped into the market in the interim, you realize that’s about 25% of their balance sheet, which as I say was once liquid and is now saddled with the assets nobody on the Street wanted.
Who’s running this clown show anyway? Henry Paulson, Mr. Moral Hazard, the People’s Treasury Secretary? But I digress.
The point is that the balance sheet of the Fed is looking tattered. I don’t think the banks are strong or even close to being out of the woods. This situation is looking a lot like 1928, which if true could lead to some awful things happening in the market.
At this point, I am going to say that sometimes in a poker game a player has to ignore the cards showing on the table and instead go with the tells. Right about now, all the technical analysts are pointing to strength in market prices. My telltale is the ongoing credit crunch, the lack of positive guidance as the major companies report, the woeful retail sales, the worsening housing market, and so forth. If I had a fundamental reason for believing today’s prices in the HB&B-dominated and controlled capital market, I’d give in to the technical analysts. But, frankly, just because UBS is up this week +21.2%, LEH +16.3%, MER +15.8%, C +15.6%, FNM +16.6% and CFC +4.8%, I don’t believe for a second this is a new Bull market. These companies are in trouble, and they are restructuring and laying off staff every month.
A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.
Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Value Line Report(s) this past Friday
This week, Value Line reported on Procter & Gamble (PG) and Home Depot (HD). In addition to my notes, which will be brief this week, I have added the reports of Cara Trading Advisors technical/quant analyst, Pierre Brodeur.
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
Procter & Gamble is a Cara 100 company: financially strong, well managed with high operating margins and returns on shareholder equity, and consistent Y/Y growth in revenue, cash flow, earnings and dividends.
Unfortunately, the operating and financial environment is stagflationary, which means there are pressures on both top line growth and costs, and that share prices of most stocks in the market are under pressure, including those of the best of companies.
For this reason, I would heed the words of the Value Line analyst Orly Seidman who opines: “As a long-term holding, much of its 3- to 5-year capital gains potential is already reflected in the current quotation ($69.54)”.
On Friday, PG closed at $70.60. There had been a trading Buy Alert at the end of January at about $65. Presently the M-W-D RSI-7 is 60.3/68.1/67.6. Too late to buy, although not a short-term oriented selling candidate.
I think the stock will come back to about $56 at or near the long-term Bear market bottom, and that when the next long-term Buy Alert is given PG’s RSI-7 values will be down around 30, perhaps a little higher for the Monthly at that point.
Below 60, I would begin to write puts. On down spike days while in the 60’s, I would buy calls and go long the stock.
If my adjusted cost base for PG is say 56, and the annual dividend is say $1.50, the dividend to cost would be ~2.68% (whereas its below 2.0% today). In two to three years, I would expect the stock to be priced at say $100, which would give me a 2-year Total Return (including yield) of about +41.3% or a 3-year return of about +28.8%. These are Buffett-beating numbers.
If your goal is to achieve Buffett-type returns (about +26% per year) over a long period of time, then these strategies and tactics will work for you. In all these discussions, however, the point is you don’t have to pick absolute tops and bottoms in price cycles. But in Bear markets and in bear phases for the stocks of the companies you consider top quality, you must let the price come to you.
Above all, you are managing your own wealth. You are not in competition amongst wealth managers to stay in the top quartile.
You carefully watch your portfolio as well as the stocks you’d like to have in it at the price that you want, and things will work out. If they don’t then turn to a wealth manager, and there are many good ones in our area if you’d care to look. That’s a one-to-one relationship, however, so you need to speak up as to who you are, what risk you can afford to take, what goals and objectives you have, and so forth. Then you need to see how the professional wealth manager can serve you.
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
Home Depot (HD) was once a Cara 100 company but Wall Street got its fingers into the pie. A CEO was imported and paid gazillions. It must have gone to his head because what was once a financially strong company with strong operating margins and very high return on capital suddenly went south. When Hurricane Katrina hit, this company should have been performing well. When the housing market turned bad, this company was not positioned to take advantage in the few places where it might have.
Now the company is having problems. The same-store revenues are falling, and the Value Line analyst Christopher Robertson opines that “2008 promises to be rough, as well”. He dropped his 2008 earnings forecast from $2.70 to $1.85. He cut revenue estimates. He says if you are long, you’d better be patient. I’d rather be in cash. In fact, so would the new management of Home Depot, trying to sell various parts of the business.
But here’s something to learn from Home Depot, especially for those of you who don’t see the links that exist between economy and the major corporations. As Value Line points out, same-store sales for Nov., Dec., and Jan., are down -6.6%, -7.2% and -10.8% respectively. The economic situation in North America is worsening. Product lines include building materials, lumber, floor/wall coverings, plumbing, heating, and electrical, paint and furniture, hardware and tools, garden supplies, and so forth. When the consumer stops buying, the store stops re-ordering, and manufacturing and durable goods orders fall, and shipping by rail and truck slows and drivers laid off, and service and installation workers are not hired, and on and on, through lower purchases at restaurants and hotels, and so forth. Money dries up. It’s called illiquidity. The economic books at school call it turnover or velocity.
Whatever it is, its not rocket science. When Wall Street came calling to once rock-solid Home Depot, the “superstar” CEO they brought in helped them re-engineer the company, and there, Mom & Pop, you get to see the result.
Business Week (May 23, 2006) told you all about this. So did I. Why do you think I was screaming about obscene executive compensation? It’s because Wall Street was robbing the shareholders and putting the fees and booty into their pockets and those of the friends. Nobody cared about the shareholders. These thieves figured Mom & Pop was too stupid to figure out what was really going on.
The same thing happened to a company I was once friendly with, Royal Plastics in Woodbridge Ontario. It used to be called that until HB&B came along and sweet-talked the Founder/Chairman/CEO and largest shareholder into changing the name to Royal Group Technologies to go along with their new financing packages. I told the International division president that his company was not in the technology business; they made construction materials, like wall frames that would hold poured concrete, plastic pipes, windows and decks and the like. I told him I saw problems coming. Wall St soon raped the company, and all the management options and much of their pensions were lost. The Founder even had the Securities Commission take his shares and boot him out, installing lawyers and accountants (including a close friend of mine in years past), but no construction materials experts, to take control of the Board, while HB&B stripped the company clean and sold the carcass to a US friend of theirs. These guys play tough; they even had the Ontario Finance Minister suspended from the Cabinet without proof, until they completed their pillage, whereupon the Finance Minister was re-installed, never a charge laid.
I could quickly name ten top Canadian companies that were destroyed by organized raids by people like this, including their friends as Senators, judges, securities commissioners, HB&B heads, and so on. Stelco was just one.
When do you people wake up and force your elected representatives to stop taking benefits from organized gangs and start representing the People?
If you think financial engineering is the way to social equity, I respectfully disagree.
Home Depot is just another ‘proof of concept’. A once-great company; 364,000 employees in the US and Canada. Beaten.
Technical Evaluation of Procter & Gamble NYSE:PG
Dow 30, GICS 30
Thursday, April 3, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst
Executive Summary
Since the last recession, this stock tripled with much less volatility than the average market stock. This is an incredible performance. Unless there is a serious market shock (a crash or the bursting of a market bubble demonstrating that this market is much overvalued), we do not see a lot of downside risk for this company. Under this worst case scenario, a target price of $50-$54 could be achieved. However, we believe that $56 - $58 is the most probable scenario.
We give PG a rating of 4.5 over a possible 5.
The trend
Point and Figure trend
The long term trend is very positive given that the stock is trading well above its bullish support line (bold dark green line at $56.00), and at a premium of 25% to this line as shown on chart #1:
Chart #1 (Click on link)
The stock is currently trading above all increasing MA50 days ($67.03), MA100 days($69.56) and MA200 days ($67.55), for some another clear definition of a bullish trend for any stock. Since it reached a high of $74.80 in December 2007, it has generated its first double bottom ($68) sell signal. We see a wide support zone at $60-$63. If that fails, the next test would be the long term trend line ($56). The yellow band corresponds to the Fib 38.2%% to 50% zone which was reached after the US market reached its top in autumn 2007. This zone is also supported by a confluence of numerous shorter term uptrend lines reinforcing this area as a significant buying price level. The turquoise band corresponds to the Fib 50% to 61.8% zone which if broken in conjunction with the long term bullish line would be a major reversal of trend for PG.
Traditional Technical Analysis trend
The Weekly view
The traditional weekly chart shows that the long term trend originating at the bottom of $47.27 in October 2005 and subsequently at $50.86 in July 2006 is still supporting an upward move in the cycle. The “correction” was sufficient to reverse downward all the trend identifying indicators including RSI (9), ADX (14) and MACD (12, 26, 9). However all are close to providing a “buy the bullish trend” signal again. Chart #2
Chart #2 (Click on link)
The Monthly view
The Monthly chart illustrates the exceptional growth in price since the low of the previous recession. In October 2007, the stock became “over-extended” as it broke above the trend channel for about 3 months. It has now come back inside that channel as all our trend indicators including RSI (9), ADX (14), MACD (12, 26, 9) and On Balance Volume are still quite bullish. Furthermore, this shows that under very severe market conditions, the worst that could be expected is a down move back to the Fib 50% area which also corresponds to the previous bull market top of around $50. Chart #3
Chart #3 (Click on link)
The following chart focuses on the trader’s perspective. It shows the two most important action signals in 2008. The first was a sell in January (red arrow) at $72 after a trend line breakdown and the buy signal (blue arrow) in March 2008 at $67.50 after a trend line breakout. The short term uptrend would be reversed with a breakdown below $67.50. Chart #4
Chart #4 (Click on link)
The long term trend is positive. The intermediary trend is neutral to positive (neutral because we have a lower low and a higher high – positive because the stock is trading above the 50 days moving average). The short term trend is characterized by higher highs and higher lows which is therefore positive.
Relative strength (RS)
Note: Given that Stockcharts does not currently cover the S&P Global 1200 index. In the meantime we have used S&P Global 100 iShares (IOO) as a proxy for the Global 1200 index knowing fully well that their correlation is quite low. This is for chart illustration purposes. However, all of our relative strength computations have been done to the S&P Global 1200 index.
Sector / Industry relative strength
Generally, Cara Trading Advisors should over weight sectors in its portfolio during all market environments which experience superior relative strength until such time as we receive a clear signal as to the change of trend in the relative strength for that sector.
Procter and Gamble is part of the Consumer Staples sector (GICS 30). This sector has been out performing the market as shown on the following chart. Chart #5
Chart #5 (Click on link)
However the recent double bottom breakdown followed by the bullish trend line break signals an end to the leadership of this sector. If I was managing the portfolio, I would progressively reduce the over-weight in this sector back to a neutral weighting pending additional action signals.
With so many securities to choose from, it only makes sense to own those whose price performance is superior to its piers and to the benchmark (the market). That is why we monitor this characteristic very closely and value this attribute highly.
Stock Specific relative strength
We compared Procter & Gamble to the Global Consumer Staples Sector ETF (KXI) as shown on Chart #6:
Chart #6 (Click on link)
Procter & Gamble’s relative strength is trading above the green industry bullish line, with the last signal being a buy (spread triple top breakout at 116.52 units) and a short term uptrend (the current column of X). Procter & Gamble has the highest rating possible with respect to the S&P Global Consumer Staples Sector index.
We compared Procter & Gamble to the market (the S&P Global 1200 which we approximated with the IOO ETF) as shown on Chart #7 (Click on link)
Procter & Gamble’s relative strength is trading above the green market bullish line, with the last signal being a buy (double top breakout at 96.45 units) and a short term downtrend (the current column of 0). Procter & Gamble has the second highest rating possible with respect to S&P Global 1200 index.
Market Environment
Dow Jones Industrials Review
The benchmark for the Cara 100 has been determined as the S&P Global 1200, However, given the fact that Stockcharts does not currently provide chart information for this index and given that Cara Trading Advisors provides a market projection for the Dow 30, we will use this index as a proxy for the market. Chart #8
Chart #8 (Click on link)
On my blog, Tuesday February the 26th, I wrote a piece called “Unearthing the crystal ball” (http://canadianpointandfigure.blogspot.com/2008/02/unearthing-crystal-ball.html), where I discussed the possibility that there was serious accumulation going on in large cap stocks. I even offered my own version of a head and shoulder bottoming formation. In the US, the formation is analogous to a double bottom but the trading range since the beginning of the year does look like quiet accumulation. I know this contradicts the Cara Trading Advisor’s forecast for the market and that makes me uncomfortable. However, I feel there is a strong possibility that the intermediary trend (within this wicked longer term bear market) will surprise many in the next few weeks. Indeed, if 11,750 was a qualified secondary bottom and should the market break 12,750, we can easily project a target of 13,400 to 13,550 (turquoise highlighted rectangle). The March 2008 double top breakout (blue arrow) which followed the bearish trend line breakout was a very significant event supporting the current positive market rally. If anything, we hope this analysis will provide further discussions within the Cara Trading Advisors firm…
Cara Trading Advisors Projection
It is Cara Trading Advisors’ belief that we are in a full fledged bear market and therefore the tactics for accumulation of Procter and Gamble will differ from that of a bull market strategy. We believe that buying breakouts is appropriate in a roaring bull market while buying support levels is the trading tactic to use in bear markets. Our analysis will therefore focus on the bear market approach.
Furthermore, given Cara Trading Advisors’ market level projection of around 10,000 for the Dow and the relatively long time frame associated with the achievement of this target, we will mostly focus on the investor’s (by opposition to the short term trader) price objectives for accumulation of the company’s stock.
Evaluating the risks and the opportunities
We used four different approaches to determine the most likely price target for this company. As it is often the case, four methods yield vastly different results and it becomes a function of your fundamental expectations for the market, the sector and the company.
Price Objective
Standard Deviation
We estimate the standard deviation of this stock to be around $4.85 or 7.0%. At the current price of $69.41, the one standard deviation downside target price is $64.56 (or Fib 38.2%), at two standard deviations, it is $59.71 (or Fib 50%) and a 3 standard deviation it could hit $54.86 which on the weekly chart is the initial long term trend line.
Fibonacci retracement
The stock is currently very far from any critical Fibonacci retracement lines. It may have already made its retracement in January and may have resumed its long term uptrend.
Point and Figure Price Objective
The P&F approach appears to be quite pessimistic for this stock given the topping formation that it has experienced. The vertical price projection method yields a price target of $41.00 (a highly improbable event much greater than 3 std dev) while the horizontal method yields $62.00.
Bill Cara market projection.
The current Cara Trading Advisors projection is for the Dow 30 to correct from a top of 14,198.10 to a low of 10,000 which is a bear market of -29.6%. If the value line beta of 0.65 is with respect to the Dow30, then we should expect Procter & Gamble to experience the same kind of correction as the market adjusted for risk or $56.00.
Measuring true value
If the 200 days moving average ($67.55) is a reasonable expression of true value, then the stock is currently trading roughly in line at a premium of 2.7%.
We don’t see a lot of downside risk for this company, at least compared to others that I have analysed recently. If anything, it is a defensive security which would provide an investor some relative refuge in a serious recession for those who have to keep this position in their portfolio.
/Pierre Brodeur, CTA chief technical/quant analyst
Technical Evaluation of Home Depot NYSE:HD
Dow 30, GICS 25
Thursday, April 3, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst
Executive Summary
This stock is in a full- fledged bear market with no end in sight for the foreseeable future.
We give HD a rating of 2 over a possible 5 and would avoid HD.
The trend
Point and Figure trend
Chart #1 (Click on link)
• Seven successive Sell signals.
• Support is $25.00.
• Resistance is $30.00.
• Long Term trend reversal is a close above $34.00.
• From the current cycle High ($41.00) to Low ($24.00), a drop of 41.5%.
• Most probable low is $19.00.
Traditional Technical Analysis trend
The Daily view
Chart #2 (Click on link)
• Short term trend is up.
• Intermediary trend is up as stock is trading above rising MA 50 days ($27.77).
• Stock is trading above declining MA 100 days ($27.40).
• Long term trend is down as stock is trading below declining MA 200 days ($31.10) and in a position to challenge it (red arrow).
• After trading below long term Bollinger Band from late October 2007 to late January 2008 (a sign of extreme pessimism), is now trading between lower BB and MA 400 days ($34.08) (purple arrow and purple dotted …… line).
The Weekly view
• Long term trend is down.
• RSI (7) confirms longer term downtrend.
• Crossing of MA200 below declining MA350 in November 2007 is quite negative.
• Long term resistance (dashed red line) is $31.00.
The Monthly view
Chart #3 (Click on link)
Chart #4 (Click on link)
• RSI (7) confirms longer term downtrend.
• From previous cycle (2000) High ($65.51) to Low ($24.00), a drop of 64%.
• Has been in a trading range between $19 and $42 since the summer of 2002.
• Support is $20.00.
• Resistance is $42.00.
The Traders’ view
Chart #5 (Click on link)
• Short term trend is up.
• Support is $27.50
• Resistance is $30-$30.50.
• A breakdown below double bottom support at $27.50 would also be a breakdown of the short term bullish uptrend line and would signify an end to the upswing.
• Have received three buy signals.
Relative strength (RS)
Sector / Industry relative strength
Chart #6 (Click on link)
• The Consumer Discretionary Sector has been moving in line with the Global 1200 index since January 2008. The trend is neutral.
• The last signal was a buy but the short term trend is negative (in a column of 0) and near a double bottom sell signal.
Stock Specific relative strength
With respect to the Sector
Chart #7 (Click on link)
• HD has been out performing its peers recently.
• The longer term trend is positive, the last signal is a buy and the short term trend is positive.
With respect to the Benchmark
Chart #8 (Click on link)
• HD has been out performing the benchmark recently.
• The longer term trend is positive, the last signal is a buy and the short term trend is positive.
Market Environment
Dow Jones Industrials Review
Chart #9 (Click on link)
/Pierre Brodeur, CTA chief technical/quant analyst
The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 1: next one is due May 2)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb 8: next one is due May 9)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)
American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
Bank of America [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(BAC: Yahoo Finance file)
(BAC: StockChart chart)
(BAC: Billcara2 chart)
(BAC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BAC: Value Line Report Feb. 22: next one is due May 23)
Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)
General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 7: next one is due Jun. 6)
Chevron Corp [GICS 10, Dow 30]
(CVX: Yahoo Finance file)
(CVX: StockChart chart)
(CVX: Billcara2 chart)
(CVX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CVX: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 21: next one is due Jun. 20)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
Wrap up:
Maybe I shouldn’t go so much into the social equity aspects of the financial markets, as I did today, but I am troubled by what I see in capital markets.
It’s not enough for there to be an awakening by the People; action must be taken. Most importantly, you need to learn how to compete against Wall Street.
In closing, I'd like to thank Pierre Brodeur for his professional analysis of the PG and HD charts. In future, I am going to add the contributions of other experts to this WIR and also to the Daily Reports. Together, we can build community that can succeed.
Onwards and upwards. Have a great trading week coming up.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 6, 2008 05:52:57 PM | Category: Cara Week in Review