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April 30, 2008
Daily Report for Wed, Apr 30, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Tuesday, like Monday, was quiet in the capital market as traders await the Federal Reserve Bank decision on monetary policy at 2:15pm ET today. The general view is that the Fed will drop its key lending rate by -25 basis points and make some announcement that the economy and the banking system are apparently relatively stable after their earlier rate cuts; the hope in Washington is that traders will accept this report.
Minutes ago, however, the European Union approved a $7.8 billion German rescue package for the regional WestLB bank, which the media is reporting as more fall-out from the sub-prime crisis in the global markets.
The DJIA (-39.81 –o.31% to 12832), S&P 500 (-5.43 -0.39% to 1391), and NASDAQ Composite (+1.70 +0.07% to 2426) closed on the soft side with Technology (XLK +1.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.8%) stronger, and commodity price sensitive Basic Materials (XLB -3.3%) and Energy (XLE -2.3%) much weaker.
As Crude Oil ($WTIX) dropped -3.12/bbl to 115.63, mostly because of the huge UK Grangemouth refinery re-start, the Airline industry ($XAL) was able to fly even higher (+5.6%). However, with a 200-day Moving Average price of Crude Oil above $90/bbl, windfall profits for 1Q were reported by Shell and BP.
Weak economic data in Germany and the UK pushed the Euro to a four week-low against the $USD. The latest German bank to go into crisis will push the Euro lower.
With $USD strength, $GOLD dropped -$18.70/oz to 876.80. Of the Cara 100 precious metals, Silver Wheaton (SLW -10.3%) was hit the hardest. More to come today.
Merck (MRK -10.4% to 37.14) came under pressure when the FDA rejected its cholesterol drug Cordaptive. Genentech (DNA -7.1%) lost big on +344% higher average daily volume.
Visa (V +6.9% to 80.88) reported Q2 net income of $314 million ($0.52/share), which beat consensus estimates.
The 30-year US Bond ($USB) had a quite modest gain, but the action in Treasury markets was the bump (+8.3%) in T-Bill yield, and a pop of +0.42% in the $USD (to 72.88) ahead of today’s FOMC announcement, which is expected to boost the USD even further.
In the spot precious metals market at 7:26am ET today, gold, palladium, platinum and silver are down again (yesterday’s price at the same time in brackets): 867.00 (886.12), 411 (427), 1905 (1945) and 16.56 (16.75) respectively. The $USD is stronger. The Euro futures are down to 1.5513.
Crude futures have dropped to 115.31 and the DJIA futures are down -21 to 12805.
Comments & Outlook
Early yesterday, I gave another heads-up to the $USD pressure down on $GOLD. I pointed to a significant support position at 875, which is where the futures closed on the session. But, the spot and futures are continuing to fall.
Yesterday I opined that “I think the prospects are for a drop to about 800, possibly down to the 870 level that I have previously opined would be the cycle bottom of the short-term bear phase… But this is a Bull market for precious metals, longer-term. A primary Bull it is called.â€
I find it incredible that the same traders who were kissing the feet of the gold-bug newsletter writers at $1025-1030 gold, believing their every word that the subsequent sell-off was a two-day affair as the Bear Stearns mess was being cleaned up, are now showing no interest in buying gold a month or so later at 867.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| INFY | 43.900 | +1.610 | +3.8 | 3.6M |
| NTES | 22.300 | +0.810 | +3.8 | 1.4M |
| WFMI | 32.920 | +1.160 | +3.7 | 2.8M |
| YHOO | 27.360 | +0.930 | +3.5 | 36.7M |
| SBUX | 16.200 | +0.540 | +3.4 | 14.3M |
| RIMM | 126.290 | +3.900 | +3.2 | 16.5M |
| CTSH | 32.120 | +0.930 | +3 | 3.9M |
| BC | 16.790 | +0.410 | +2.5 | 1.3M |
| CVX | 94.740 | +2.240 | +2.4 | 19.5M |
| WMT | 58.610 | +1.260 | +2.2 | 17.7M |
| TOT | 83.430 | +1.420 | +1.7 | 2.2M |
| BBBY | 33.560 | +0.550 | +1.7 | 3.5M |
| ADBE | 37.760 | +0.580 | +1.6 | 5.4M |
| IBKR | 31.620 | +0.480 | +1.5 | 1.2M |
| GS | 192.680 | +2.440 | +1.3 | 7.1M |
| GOL | 15.220 | +0.190 | +1.3 | 784.8K |
| NOK | 29.880 | +0.370 | +1.3 | 19.2M |
| ORCL | 21.760 | +0.250 | +1.2 | 25.8M |
| GOOG | 558.470 | +6.350 | +1.2 | 4.3M |
| QCOM | 43.760 | +0.470 | +1.1 | 11.3M |
| KSS | 50.460 | +0.540 | +1.1 | 4.8M |
| DIS | 32.760 | +0.330 | +1 | 10.2M |
| PTR | 147.970 | +1.390 | +0.9 | 1M |
| SWK | 49.520 | +0.330 | +0.7 | 717.8K |
| BA | 85.530 | +0.550 | +0.6 | 4.5M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| SLW | 12.760 | -1.470 | -10.3 | 7.6M |
| DNA | 67.930 | -5.230 | -7.1 | 16.3M |
| TCK | 42.800 | -2.610 | -5.7 | 1.2M |
| PDA | 49.900 | -2.660 | -5.1 | 214.6K |
| PBR | 116.790 | -5.970 | -4.9 | 10.4M |
| ABV | 70.520 | -3.380 | -4.6 | 716.2K |
| GG | 34.470 | -1.630 | -4.5 | 8.8M |
| ECA | 79.080 | -3.350 | -4.1 | 2.7M |
| ABX | 37.500 | -1.540 | -3.9 | 10M |
| CCJ | 34.840 | -1.420 | -3.9 | 2.5M |
| BBD | 21.000 | -0.850 | -3.9 | 9.9M |
| BHP | 79.400 | -3.130 | -3.8 | 4.1M |
| GFI | 13.320 | -0.500 | -3.6 | 5.7M |
| VCP | 30.120 | -1.130 | -3.6 | 240K |
| GGB | 36.530 | -1.260 | -3.3 | 1.6M |
| RIO | 36.840 | -1.180 | -3.1 | 17.5M |
| MICC | 108.120 | -3.270 | -2.9 | 654.3K |
| SU | 110.610 | -3.340 | -2.9 | 2.6M |
| TS | 51.090 | -1.390 | -2.6 | 1.8M |
| UBS | 34.470 | -0.890 | -2.5 | 2.6M |
| NUE | 75.080 | -1.920 | -2.5 | 5.3M |
| GRMN | 46.440 | -0.970 | -2 | 4.2M |
| DEO | 79.860 | -1.640 | -2 | 527.3K |
| LEH | 46.570 | -0.950 | -2 | 11.9M |
| KB | 68.050 | -1.250 | -1.8 | 393.1K |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| WMT | 58.800 | 58.610 | +1.260 | +2.20 | 17.69M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. | |||||
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| DNA | 67.930 | -7.1 | 16.3M | +344 |
| SLW | 12.760 | -10.3 | 7.6M | +157 |
| CVX | 94.740 | +2.4 | 19.5M | +102 |
| NTES | 22.300 | +3.8 | 1.4M | +97 |
| IBKR | 31.620 | +1.5 | 1.2M | +64 |
| YHOO | 27.360 | +3.5 | 36.7M | +56 |
| XOM | 91.790 | -0.7 | 29.5M | +42 |
| PDA | 49.900 | -5.1 | 214.6K | +38 |
| GG | 34.470 | -4.5 | 8.8M | +30 |
| GOL | 15.220 | +1.3 | 784.8K | +29 |
| TOT | 83.430 | +1.7 | 2.2M | +29 |
| PG | 65.900 | -0.5 | 16.6M | +28 |
| ABV | 70.520 | -4.6 | 716.2K | +28 |
| BBD | 21.000 | -3.9 | 9.9M | +25 |
| ABX | 37.500 | -3.9 | 10M | +24 |
| WFMI | 32.920 | +3.7 | 2.8M | +16 |
| TS | 51.090 | -2.6 | 1.8M | +11 |
| ABB | 30.250 | -1 | 4.6M | +11 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| CVX | Goldman Sachs | --- |
|
--- | Neutral |
|
Buy |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| BBD | Deutsche Bank | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Hold |
| CHL | Goldman Sachs | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Neutral |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| KSS | Baird | --- |
|
52.00 | Outperform |
|
Neutral |
| RY | Smith Barney | --- |
|
--- | Hold |
|
Sell |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYT | 58.34 | 88.14 | 55.66 | 30.15 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $61.87, -5.71% chg], after a 5 day DZ) |
| WMT | 58.61 | 85.41 | 85.33 | 81.64 | Distribution Zone (for 6 days) |
| ECA | 79.08 | 75.99 | 59.05 | 38.14 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-04-22 at $84.94, -6.90% chg], after a 5 day DZ) |
| RIMM | 126.29 | 74.25 | 68.81 | 63.75 | |
| COST | 71.00 | 73.21 | 68.49 | 69.95 | Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-28 at $70.83, +0.24% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| TT | 45.96 | 72.70 | 61.27 | 39.75 | |
| ABB | 30.25 | 72.47 | 73.86 | 75.51 | Distribution Zone (for 4 days) |
| CHRW | 62.67 | 72.44 | 78.48 | 69.09 | Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $62.32, +0.56% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| EXC | 84.33 | 71.18 | 62.94 | 42.82 | Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-21 at $86.32, -2.31% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| NKE | 68.23 | 70.08 | 63.29 | 57.06 | |
| NUE | 75.08 | 69.50 | 70.08 | 57.64 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-29 at $75.08, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| NTES | 22.30 | 65.65 | 72.21 | 87.60 | |
| STO | 35.47 | 65.32 | 76.33 | 63.12 | |
| CVX | 94.74 | 64.20 | 75.38 | 71.58 | |
| TOT | 83.43 | 63.35 | 73.62 | 69.94 | |
| LLTC | 35.02 | 60.78 | 80.83 | 79.02 | |
| QCOM | 43.76 | 60.76 | 65.85 | 70.82 | |
| WBK | 118.05 | 59.40 | 59.88 | 72.17 | |
| IBKR | 31.62 | 57.26 | 58.86 | 78.82 | |
| GOOG | 558.47 | 53.29 | 63.34 | 78.46 | |
| DIS | 32.76 | 52.96 | 60.19 | 78.28 | |
| BBBY | 33.56 | 52.82 | 67.25 | 70.17 | |
| INFY | 43.90 | 50.08 | 65.06 | 72.07 | |
| GS | 192.68 | 49.62 | 59.64 | 77.33 | |
| PTR | 147.97 | 49.18 | 55.59 | 70.56 | |
| BA | 85.53 | 48.46 | 66.52 | 84.43 | |
| KSS | 50.46 | 44.64 | 66.45 | 79.59 | |
| JCP | 43.67 | 36.11 | 54.03 | 72.28 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 16.20 | 10.03 | 28.31 | 36.26 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $15.86, +2.14% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| BC | 16.79 | 22.25 | 51.47 | 66.45 | |
| DELL | 18.97 | 24.49 | 37.29 | 46.22 | |
| GOL | 15.22 | 26.50 | 34.71 | 51.16 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $14.78, +2.98% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| UBS | 34.47 | 28.92 | 47.93 | 48.40 | |
| WFMI | 32.92 | 29.14 | 41.18 | 57.57 | |
| GRMN | 46.44 | 29.25 | 30.51 | 50.52 | |
| GFI | 13.32 | 33.37 | 37.40 | 27.30 | |
| WHR | 74.45 | 35.06 | 32.79 | 28.62 | |
| DNA | 67.93 | 39.30 | 28.52 | 21.46 | |
| SLW | 12.76 | 44.18 | 29.26 | 13.37 | |
| ABX | 37.50 | 45.79 | 30.21 | 20.51 | |
| DEO | 79.86 | 47.40 | 38.59 | 22.29 | |
| PG | 65.90 | 48.94 | 36.53 | 17.16 | |
| ABV | 70.52 | 52.48 | 38.31 | 20.39 | |
| GG | 34.47 | 53.44 | 37.65 | 20.85 | |
| TCK | 42.80 | 56.98 | 53.47 | 27.41 | |
| KO | 58.72 | 60.53 | 41.10 | 25.89 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
