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April 30, 2008

Daily Report for Wed, Apr 30, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Tuesday, like Monday, was quiet in the capital market as traders await the Federal Reserve Bank decision on monetary policy at 2:15pm ET today. The general view is that the Fed will drop its key lending rate by -25 basis points and make some announcement that the economy and the banking system are apparently relatively stable after their earlier rate cuts; the hope in Washington is that traders will accept this report.

Minutes ago, however, the European Union approved a $7.8 billion German rescue package for the regional WestLB bank, which the media is reporting as more fall-out from the sub-prime crisis in the global markets.

The DJIA (-39.81 –o.31% to 12832), S&P 500 (-5.43 -0.39% to 1391), and NASDAQ Composite (+1.70 +0.07% to 2426) closed on the soft side with Technology (XLK +1.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.8%) stronger, and commodity price sensitive Basic Materials (XLB -3.3%) and Energy (XLE -2.3%) much weaker.

As Crude Oil ($WTIX) dropped -3.12/bbl to 115.63, mostly because of the huge UK Grangemouth refinery re-start, the Airline industry ($XAL) was able to fly even higher (+5.6%). However, with a 200-day Moving Average price of Crude Oil above $90/bbl, windfall profits for 1Q were reported by Shell and BP.

Weak economic data in Germany and the UK pushed the Euro to a four week-low against the $USD. The latest German bank to go into crisis will push the Euro lower.

With $USD strength, $GOLD dropped -$18.70/oz to 876.80. Of the Cara 100 precious metals, Silver Wheaton (SLW -10.3%) was hit the hardest. More to come today.

Merck (MRK -10.4% to 37.14) came under pressure when the FDA rejected its cholesterol drug Cordaptive. Genentech (DNA -7.1%) lost big on +344% higher average daily volume.

Visa (V +6.9% to 80.88) reported Q2 net income of $314 million ($0.52/share), which beat consensus estimates.

The 30-year US Bond ($USB) had a quite modest gain, but the action in Treasury markets was the bump (+8.3%) in T-Bill yield, and a pop of +0.42% in the $USD (to 72.88) ahead of today’s FOMC announcement, which is expected to boost the USD even further.

In the spot precious metals market at 7:26am ET today, gold, palladium, platinum and silver are down again (yesterday’s price at the same time in brackets): 867.00 (886.12), 411 (427), 1905 (1945) and 16.56 (16.75) respectively. The $USD is stronger. The Euro futures are down to 1.5513.

Crude futures have dropped to 115.31 and the DJIA futures are down -21 to 12805.


Comments & Outlook

Early yesterday, I gave another heads-up to the $USD pressure down on $GOLD. I pointed to a significant support position at 875, which is where the futures closed on the session. But, the spot and futures are continuing to fall.

Yesterday I opined that “I think the prospects are for a drop to about 800, possibly down to the 870 level that I have previously opined would be the cycle bottom of the short-term bear phase… But this is a Bull market for precious metals, longer-term. A primary Bull it is called.â€

I find it incredible that the same traders who were kissing the feet of the gold-bug newsletter writers at $1025-1030 gold, believing their every word that the subsequent sell-off was a two-day affair as the Bear Stearns mess was being cleaned up, are now showing no interest in buying gold a month or so later at 867.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
INFY 43.900 +1.610 +3.8 3.6M
NTES 22.300 +0.810 +3.8 1.4M
WFMI 32.920 +1.160 +3.7 2.8M
YHOO 27.360 +0.930 +3.5 36.7M
SBUX 16.200 +0.540 +3.4 14.3M
RIMM 126.290 +3.900 +3.2 16.5M
CTSH 32.120 +0.930 +3 3.9M
BC 16.790 +0.410 +2.5 1.3M
CVX 94.740 +2.240 +2.4 19.5M
WMT 58.610 +1.260 +2.2 17.7M
TOT 83.430 +1.420 +1.7 2.2M
BBBY 33.560 +0.550 +1.7 3.5M
ADBE 37.760 +0.580 +1.6 5.4M
IBKR 31.620 +0.480 +1.5 1.2M
GS 192.680 +2.440 +1.3 7.1M
GOL 15.220 +0.190 +1.3 784.8K
NOK 29.880 +0.370 +1.3 19.2M
ORCL 21.760 +0.250 +1.2 25.8M
GOOG 558.470 +6.350 +1.2 4.3M
QCOM 43.760 +0.470 +1.1 11.3M
KSS 50.460 +0.540 +1.1 4.8M
DIS 32.760 +0.330 +1 10.2M
PTR 147.970 +1.390 +0.9 1M
SWK 49.520 +0.330 +0.7 717.8K
BA 85.530 +0.550 +0.6 4.5M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
SLW 12.760 -1.470 -10.3 7.6M
DNA 67.930 -5.230 -7.1 16.3M
TCK 42.800 -2.610 -5.7 1.2M
PDA 49.900 -2.660 -5.1 214.6K
PBR 116.790 -5.970 -4.9 10.4M
ABV 70.520 -3.380 -4.6 716.2K
GG 34.470 -1.630 -4.5 8.8M
ECA 79.080 -3.350 -4.1 2.7M
ABX 37.500 -1.540 -3.9 10M
CCJ 34.840 -1.420 -3.9 2.5M
BBD 21.000 -0.850 -3.9 9.9M
BHP 79.400 -3.130 -3.8 4.1M
GFI 13.320 -0.500 -3.6 5.7M
VCP 30.120 -1.130 -3.6 240K
GGB 36.530 -1.260 -3.3 1.6M
RIO 36.840 -1.180 -3.1 17.5M
MICC 108.120 -3.270 -2.9 654.3K
SU 110.610 -3.340 -2.9 2.6M
TS 51.090 -1.390 -2.6 1.8M
UBS 34.470 -0.890 -2.5 2.6M
NUE 75.080 -1.920 -2.5 5.3M
GRMN 46.440 -0.970 -2 4.2M
DEO 79.860 -1.640 -2 527.3K
LEH 46.570 -0.950 -2 11.9M
KB 68.050 -1.250 -1.8 393.1K

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
WMT 58.800 58.610 +1.260 +2.20 17.69M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
DNA 67.930 -7.1 16.3M +344
SLW 12.760 -10.3 7.6M +157
CVX 94.740 +2.4 19.5M +102
NTES 22.300 +3.8 1.4M +97
IBKR 31.620 +1.5 1.2M +64
YHOO 27.360 +3.5 36.7M +56
XOM 91.790 -0.7 29.5M +42
PDA 49.900 -5.1 214.6K +38
GG 34.470 -4.5 8.8M +30
GOL 15.220 +1.3 784.8K +29
TOT 83.430 +1.7 2.2M +29
PG 65.900 -0.5 16.6M +28
ABV 70.520 -4.6 716.2K +28
BBD 21.000 -3.9 9.9M +25
ABX 37.500 -3.9 10M +24
WFMI 32.920 +3.7 2.8M +16
TS 51.090 -2.6 1.8M +11
ABB 30.250 -1 4.6M +11

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
CVX Goldman Sachs --- --- Neutral Buy
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
BBD Deutsche Bank --- --- Buy Hold
CHL Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Neutral
• PREVIOUS SESSION
KSS Baird --- 52.00 Outperform Neutral
RY Smith Barney --- --- Hold Sell


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT58.3488.1455.6630.15Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $61.87, -5.71% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
WMT58.6185.4185.3381.64Distribution Zone (for 6 days)
ECA79.0875.9959.0538.14Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-04-22 at $84.94, -6.90% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
RIMM126.2974.2568.8163.75
COST71.0073.2168.4969.95Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-28 at $70.83, +0.24% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
TT45.9672.7061.2739.75
ABB30.2572.4773.8675.51Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
CHRW62.6772.4478.4869.09Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $62.32, +0.56% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
EXC84.3371.1862.9442.82Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-21 at $86.32, -2.31% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
NKE68.2370.0863.2957.06
NUE75.0869.5070.0857.64Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-29 at $75.08, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
NTES22.3065.6572.2187.60
STO35.4765.3276.3363.12
CVX94.7464.2075.3871.58
TOT83.4363.3573.6269.94
LLTC35.0260.7880.8379.02
QCOM43.7660.7665.8570.82
WBK118.0559.4059.8872.17
IBKR31.6257.2658.8678.82
GOOG558.4753.2963.3478.46
DIS32.7652.9660.1978.28
BBBY33.5652.8267.2570.17
INFY43.9050.0865.0672.07
GS192.6849.6259.6477.33
PTR147.9749.1855.5970.56
BA85.5348.4666.5284.43
KSS50.4644.6466.4579.59
JCP43.6736.1154.0372.28

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX16.2010.0328.3136.26Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $15.86, +2.14% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
BC16.7922.2551.4766.45
DELL18.9724.4937.2946.22
GOL15.2226.5034.7151.16Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $14.78, +2.98% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UBS34.4728.9247.9348.40
WFMI32.9229.1441.1857.57
GRMN46.4429.2530.5150.52
GFI13.3233.3737.4027.30
WHR74.4535.0632.7928.62
DNA67.9339.3028.5221.46
SLW12.7644.1829.2613.37
ABX37.5045.7930.2120.51
DEO79.8647.4038.5922.29
PG65.9048.9436.5317.16
ABV70.5252.4838.3120.39
GG34.4753.4437.6520.85
TCK42.8056.9853.4727.41
KO58.7260.5341.1025.89


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AXP 48.01 0.12 0.25% 9.19% 11.26% 1.95% -5.94% 0.44% -20.66% -22.74%
BA 85.53 0.55 0.65% 8.87% 12.99% 12.72% -1.26% 5.64% -11.82% -9.03%
VZ 38.21 0.26 0.69% 6.94% 8.83% 1.11% -11.57% -1.29% -16.92% 0.84%
C 26.32 -0.49 -1.83% 4.78% 15.44% 10.40% -8.99% -5.70% -38.35% -50.68%
DIS 32.76 0.33 1.02% 4.70% 9.46% 2.66% 2.89% 13.75% -5.54% -6.35%
AIG 47.00 -0.04 -0.09% 3.82% 6.55% 0.00% -16.52% -17.15% -25.63% -32.99%
WMT 58.61 1.26 2.20% 3.64% 4.16% 8.38% 24.97% 19.59% 30.22% 21.25%
GM 21.20 -0.74 -3.37% 3.36% 10.88% 5.21% -13.15% -22.09% -44.15% -32.83%
MCD 60.20 0.61 1.02% 3.17% 7.58% 5.78% 3.61% 18.62% 1.72% 22.98%
JPM 47.08 -0.26 -0.55% 3.13% 11.78% 0.17% 11.64% -0.78% 0.88% -10.41%
HD 29.36 -0.37 -1.24% 2.95% 5.12% -0.44% 12.45% -1.18% -6.50% -23.68%
INTC 22.62 -0.09 -0.40% 2.86% 8.18% 2.96% -10.77% 10.34% -13.86% 3.43%
UTX 73.11 0.07 0.10% 2.34% 3.20% 2.62% -2.79% -0.10% -3.52% 8.01%
BAC 37.86 -0.32 -0.84% 2.32% 6.41% -7.34% -6.66% -9.73% -21.09% -25.43%
PFE 20.24 0.01 0.05% 2.27% -2.27% -5.33% -11.65% -12.68% -17.42% -23.94%
T 38.59 0.29 0.76% 2.06% 3.38% -2.25% -5.88% 1.85% -7.55% -0.13%
GE 32.82 -0.35 -1.06% 1.52% 2.63% -14.60% -10.72% -5.58% -19.08% -10.91%
CVX 94.74 2.24 2.42% 0.76% 5.07% 9.22% 1.37% 14.70% 2.00% 21.34%
JNJ 67.19 -0.13 -0.19% 0.30% 2.35% 2.00% 1.94% 6.70% 3.40% 4.71%
CAT 81.51 -1.52 -1.83% -0.61% 7.32% 1.91% 15.40% 18.15% 10.30% 10.51%
IBM 122.85 1.16 0.95% -0.66% 4.85% 5.46% 17.35% 15.79% 7.01% 21.43%
HPQ 47.84 0.25 0.53% -0.69% 4.41% 0.53% -3.96% 10.28% -7.59% 13.12%
KO 58.72 -0.26 -0.44% -1.95% -3.64% -4.43% -3.88% 0.29% -5.05% 12.79%
PG 65.90 -0.31 -0.47% -2.33% -6.17% -7.37% -8.86% 1.89% -8.26% 4.64%
XOM 91.79 -0.66 -0.71% -2.75% 1.09% 5.48% -1.84% 7.89% -1.94% 14.22%
AA 34.65 -1.09 -3.05% -2.94% -0.55% -5.17% -4.10% 6.09% -14.30% -3.72%
DD 48.67 -0.51 -1.04% -2.97% -0.53% 1.93% 11.27% 7.80% -0.69% -2.05%
MRK 37.14 -4.30 -10.38% -3.56% -9.90% -3.08% -35.26% -22.64% -35.71% -28.38%
MMM 76.86 -0.27 -0.35% -5.32% -2.51% -5.48% -7.07% -1.49% -10.60% -5.75%
MSFT 28.64 -0.35 -1.21% -5.32% 1.38% -2.92% -18.68% -12.15% -17.15% -4.91%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change