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April 8, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Apr 08, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Following a ferocious bullish media campaign in the early hours of financial entertainment television, US equity prices headed higher on low volume for most of Monday. But, profit-taking set in and the indexes closed flat.

The DJIA (+3 +0.02% to 12612), S&P 500 (+2 +0.16% to 1372.5) and Nasdaq Composite (-6.15 -0.26% to 2364.8) were quiet and mixed. The Toronto Exchange gained +77 (+0.56%) to 13800.

In the Far East, Hong Kong (+1.29% to 24579) and Japan (+1.18% to 13450) were up just about +1.25% to start the day. Then the European bourses followed through with gains of +1.0%: FTSE (+1.14% to 6015); CAC (+0.89% to 4945); and DAX (+0.85% to 6821). That boosted the US to open higher, at least.

During the day, the Healthcare sector (XLV +1.14%) was the only notable mover. Among industries, the Banks ($BKX +1.58%) and Broker-Dealers ($XBD +1.32%) were stronger, but nothing really stood out.

On the corporate scene, Alcoa (AA) reported 1Q net earnings dropped from $662 million ($0.75/sh) to $303 million ($0.37/sh), missing at $0.44/sh the Street expectations for continuing operations of $0.48/sh. Higher costs were cited.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) said it would cut 10% of its work force, which traders see as a company suffering from business pressures from industry leader Intel (INTC).

On the economics front, consumer debt grew at a more restrained pace.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) jumped +$2.86/bbl to 109.09 after a fire at Finnish company Neste Oil extended its Porvoo refinery shutdown.

The 30-year US Bond ($USB) dropped -0.64% to 118.34, while yields gained across the board (30-year $TYX +1.18% to 4.369) (10-year $TNX +2.15% to 3.556) (5-year $FVX +4.18% to 2.743) and (T-Bills +3.03% to 1.360). That strengthened the US Dollar.

Despite the $USD strengthening (+0.32%) to 72.22, while all major currencies slumped (Euro -0.08% to 157.17; Yen -0.92% to 97.60; Pound -0.26% to 198.78; and the Loonie -0.42% to 98.68), $GOLD lifted +$13.60 (+1.49%) to 926.80.

Earlier today, the All Ords of Australia (-0.87%), Hong Kong (-1.09%), BSE 30 of India (-1.08%) and Nikkei of Japan (-1.49%) were all down. At 8:27am ET, Europe was down about -1.0% (FTSE -0.73%) (CAC -0.99%) (DAX -1.01%).

The futures market has the DJIA (12555 -47), Crude Oil (108.79) and Euro (1.5645), all a bit weaker.

Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver are at 912.94, 445, 2003, and 17.71 respectively, which has softened.

The talk is of softening economic data.


Comments & Outlook

If unemployment is going to become a crisis in America, I think that the US Retailers ($RLX) will continue under pressure. Part of that pressure will also come from inflated import prices, and high costs of fuel for automobiles.

As we go into the 10th and the few days following, traders have to be watching this industry. “No shoes for baby” could become a mantra.

Yesterday, some of the US retailers continued to be knocked down (KSS -2.7% among the Cara 100 companies). I noted many losers, such as Ann Taylor (ANN -6.5%), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN -5.6%), Dilards (DDS -6.5%), TJX Stores (TJX -3.1%), Tween Brands (TWB -4.2%) and The Buckle (BKE -4.1%) all very weak on the day.

Just something to watch. Either the US consumer has savings or credit, or they do not. The US economy is weakening because they do not.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
IBN 41.570 +2.640 +6.8 3.4M
HDB 101.100 +5.700 +6 1M
CHA 68.580 +3.440 +5.3 530.6K
UBS 34.880 +1.230 +3.7 8.5M
NTES 19.960 +0.590 +3 544.6K
PTR 139.630 +4.050 +3 1.2M
GGB 37.210 +1.060 +2.9 4.6M
BBD 30.730 +0.820 +2.7 6.1M
MBT 83.880 +2.080 +2.5 1.9M
BHP 75.070 +1.850 +2.5 5.3M
TCK 45.900 +1.030 +2.3 2.4M
STO 31.770 +0.680 +2.2 1.6M
VCP 31.750 +0.620 +2 847.9K
GS 178.730 +3.330 +1.9 10.3M
DB 119.750 +2.010 +1.7 405.2K
VIP 32.640 +0.490 +1.5 5.2M
CHRW 59.830 +0.880 +1.5 2.9M
TEF 91.870 +1.350 +1.5 469.4K
MICC 95.550 +1.370 +1.5 628.9K
CHL 82.530 +1.090 +1.3 3.3M
GOL 16.000 +0.210 +1.3 525.8K
LEH 44.600 +0.550 +1.2 19.6M
GOOG 476.820 +5.730 +1.2 5.9M
ERJ 41.960 +0.500 +1.2 587.3K
GFI 13.860 +0.150 +1.1 10.1M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
AMAT 20.190 -0.700 -3.4 35.9M
WBK 112.360 -3.340 -2.9 38.8K
KSS 43.630 -1.190 -2.7 5.5M
BC 16.960 -0.450 -2.6 1.1M
GRMN 52.700 -1.370 -2.5 3.7M
NKE 66.830 -1.680 -2.5 3.3M
YHOO 27.700 -0.660 -2.3 29.4M
CSCO 23.940 -0.450 -1.8 54.6M
CCJ 34.720 -0.600 -1.7 2.4M
RIMM 118.070 -1.920 -1.6 21.2M
BBBY 31.110 -0.490 -1.6 4.3M
DELL 19.230 -0.300 -1.5 26.1M
LLTC 31.760 -0.470 -1.5 6.7M
WHR 89.900 -1.310 -1.4 951.2K
CTSH 28.970 -0.420 -1.4 2.4M
DNA 78.650 -1.080 -1.4 3.6M
OXPS 21.410 -0.290 -1.3 694.1K
SLW 16.450 -0.220 -1.3 3.2M
DEO 84.930 -1.060 -1.2 530.4K
ABV 79.110 -0.960 -1.2 405.5K
PAYX 35.980 -0.410 -1.1 3.8M
SNDK 25.570 -0.270 -1 9.3M
SBUX 18.310 -0.190 -1 6.3M
QCOM 41.670 -0.380 -0.9 12.1M
EXC 82.430 -0.740 -0.9 3.3M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GGB 37.610 37.210 +1.060 +2.93 4.57M
CHRW 60.740 59.830 +0.880 +1.49 2.86M
RIO 38.460 36.770 +0.100 +0.27 33.50M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
GGB 37.210 +2.9 4.6M +67
TCK 45.900 +2.3 2.4M +53
GFI 13.860 +1.1 10.1M +40
TM 97.470 -0.5 1.2M +39
RIO 36.770 +0.3 33.5M +34
VIP 32.640 +1.5 5.2M +27
HDB 101.100 +6 1M +27
CHRW 59.830 +1.5 2.9M +27
AMAT 20.190 -3.4 35.9M +26
WBK 112.360 -2.9 38.8K +23
STO 31.770 +2.2 1.6M +19
MBT 83.880 +2.5 1.9M +13
LLTC 31.760 -1.5 6.7M +13
BHP 75.070 +2.5 5.3M +12

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
UBS UBS Securities --- --- Neutral Buy
• PREVIOUS SESSION
BHP Bernstein --- --- Mkt Perform Outperform

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
AMAT CSFB --- --- Outperform Neutral
NUE Morgan Stanley --- --- Overweight Equal-weight
• PREVIOUS SESSION
DELL WR Hambrecht --- --- Buy Hold
DELL Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
PBR111.1083.0555.5266.86
SYT60.8280.6169.6766.25Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-07 at $60.82, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
GGB37.2178.4572.3981.74Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
TT46.4076.1978.1164.24
NUE71.2875.9070.1659.40
RIO36.7775.0364.5473.66
ATVI27.2574.4659.5853.10
NKE66.8373.5862.8051.21Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-02 at $67.97, -1.68% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
WMT54.2371.5576.3165.15Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-04 at $54.40, -0.31% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
RIMM118.0770.3466.7458.09
PDA50.1170.1955.7657.44
ECA76.7870.1562.6760.64
VCP31.7569.1559.5572.20
BHP75.0767.1961.6482.17
CHRW59.8367.0667.2870.24
TEF91.8764.7862.0578.27
CHL82.5363.6963.0576.90
TCK45.9063.0367.7975.13
CVX88.2758.8259.5770.69
STO31.7757.6964.4878.32
HBC84.8253.8372.1466.99
ERTS52.3050.9160.0770.05
PAYX35.9847.4263.0873.19
DOW38.8045.8357.7971.13
TGP30.3042.5856.9283.77
GSK45.0337.5151.7170.38
UBS34.8828.8848.9572.78

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX18.3121.3744.3056.53
TM97.4723.6434.0331.77
INFY36.9626.5042.3454.40
GOL16.0026.8637.7950.33
JCP40.2627.4643.2048.06
AET42.3128.2218.9840.40
BA74.9828.5731.4544.35
BC16.9628.5849.0352.98
UBS34.8828.8848.9572.78
KSS43.6328.9845.6044.28
SNDK25.5729.0646.4567.43
DELL19.2329.1833.5637.01
GRMN52.7032.7029.6834.84


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
C 24.60 0.52 2.16% 14.85% 5.72% 17.65% -14.94% -12.95% -49.07% -52.30%
AIG 48.04 0.74 1.56% 11.08% 4.19% 12.03% -14.67% -14.67% -30.77% -28.54%
GM 21.01 0.43 2.09% 10.29% 3.09% -4.33% -13.93% -11.20% -45.00% -34.14%
MRK 40.78 0.78 1.95% 7.46% -7.84% -2.32% -28.92% -29.59% -23.79% -10.45%
AXP 46.55 0.44 0.95% 6.47% -1.81% 12.09% -8.80% -5.69% -23.81% -16.82%
JPM 45.54 -0.03 -0.07% 6.03% -2.17% 21.25% 7.99% 10.16% -4.29% -6.62%
XOM 88.92 0.18 0.20% 5.13% 3.46% 7.79% -4.91% -2.52% -2.67% 15.15%
DD 48.99 -0.51 -1.03% 4.77% 4.99% 8.87% 12.00% 13.19% -1.13% -0.67%
UTX 71.79 0.06 0.08% 4.32% 2.06% 6.37% -4.55% -3.86% -11.19% 10.57%
BAC 39.50 0.09 0.23% 4.19% -6.95% 7.51% -2.61% -1.00% -25.06% -22.32%
AA 37.44 -1.56 -4.00% 3.83% 6.85% 2.30% 3.63% 13.08% -3.48% 8.24%
CVX 88.27 0.22 0.25% 3.41% 5.07% 3.53% -5.55% -4.19% -4.39% 16.74%
WMT 54.23 -0.17 -0.31% 2.94% 1.12% 8.68% 15.63% 16.47% 19.53% 12.35%
MSFT 29.16 0.00 0.00% 2.75% -0.03% 4.63% -17.21% -15.75% -2.28% 2.14%
INTC 21.75 -0.12 -0.55% 2.69% -1.72% 8.37% -14.20% -4.94% -14.84% 11.08%
PFE 21.48 0.13 0.61% 2.63% 4.22% 0.61% -6.24% -7.53% -16.03% -16.87%
VZ 37.40 0.06 0.16% 2.61% 1.16% 6.61% -13.45% -13.73% -17.29% -1.58%
JNJ 66.14 0.41 0.62% 1.96% 1.93% 7.53% 0.35% -1.08% -0.17% 7.46%
HD 28.50 -0.29 -1.01% 1.89% -2.60% 10.12% 9.15% 12.34% -16.72% -25.04%
T 39.01 0.53 1.38% 1.85% 2.58% 11.43% -4.85% -5.84% -7.43% -0.66%
MMM 80.19 -0.33 -0.41% 1.31% 1.97% 4.81% -3.05% -1.13% -16.34% 4.48%
IBM 116.31 0.55 0.48% 1.02% -2.31% 2.08% 11.10% 16.25% 0.01% 20.50%
BA 74.98 -0.67 -0.89% 0.82% -1.72% -2.11% -13.44% -9.52% -26.67% -17.15%
GE 37.26 -0.30 -0.80% 0.68% -0.37% 15.61% 1.36% 2.99% -10.80% 6.40%
PG 70.51 -0.09 -0.13% 0.63% 0.77% 7.16% -2.49% -2.73% -0.45% 11.92%
HPQ 45.92 -0.48 -1.03% 0.57% -4.19% -2.94% -7.81% 1.26% -9.78% 9.86%
DIS 31.52 0.28 0.90% 0.45% -1.62% 2.47% -1.01% 1.16% -11.14% -9.71%
MCD 55.65 -0.07 -0.13% -0.22% -0.22% 6.47% -4.22% -4.10% -1.28% 21.56%
KO 60.37 0.12 0.20% -0.82% -1.32% 2.58% -1.18% -4.64% 3.96% 21.91%
CAT 77.25 -0.58 -0.75% -1.33% 1.60% 10.61% 9.37% 12.40% -3.83% 14.22%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

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Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLF 26.52 0.16 0.61% 6.63% -0.82% 9.05% -6.49% -3.39% -25.86% -25.84%
XLB 42.68 -0.23 -0.54% 6.25% 7.45% 7.81% 3.34%