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April 26, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, Apr 26, 2008

Markets Re-cap

There is a growing disconnect between worsening macro-economic picture, with no reversal in sight, and general bullishness on Wall Street.

At the close on Friday, the DJIA (+42.91 +0.33% to 12892) and S&P 500 (+9.02 +0.65% to 1398) were buoyed by the Basic Materials (XLB +2.86%, mostly chemicals) and Financials (XLF +1.89%), while the NASDAQ Composite (-5.99 -0.25% to 2423) sank on lower Microsoft earnings (-11% to $4.39 billion vs $4.93 billion a year earlier) and guidance going forward, which pulled down the Techs (XLK -1.19%).

On the worsening economic front, the final reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for April dropped to a 26-year low.

Also on the earnings front, American Express (AXP) earnings dropped -6% ($0.85 vs $0.87) but beat consensus on the Street of $0.81, while revenue increased +11% to $7.18 billion, as expected.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) jumped +10.9% after earning $0.66/sh vs $0.31/sh a year ago and well up from a consensus $0.50/sh.

Research In Motion (RIMM/RIM) dropped -2.9% after news that the new 3G Blackberry for AT&T would be delayed.

Weakening currencies abroad (Euro -0.45% to 1.5618 and Yen -0.16% to 95.75) helped strengthen the $USD (+0.32% to 72.80).

Crude Oil ($WTIC) jumped up +$2.46/bbl to a high of 118.52, setting an intra-day high of 119.55/bbl. There were concerns over supply disruptions at a UK pipeline and in Nigeria, where Shell Oil was attacked by rebel forces again.

The US long bond dropped ($USB -0.44% to 115.59) while yields lifted across the board: 30-year $TYX +0.99% to 4.589; 10-year $TNX +1.02% to 3.866; 5-year $FVX +2.32% to 3.176; and T-Bill $IRX +5.33% to 1.285.

$GOLD stayed flat (+$0.30/oz to 889.70). On the precious metals spot market, gold, palladium, platinum and silver closed the week not very strongly at 885.15, 437.5, 1951, and 16.82, respectively.



Comments & Outlook

As noted yesterday, I think there are more problems ahead within the Financial sector, despite all the cheerleading, and on relative basis the Tech sector would be favored, although I anticipate weakness there too this year. This will be a year where costs of corporations will continue to rise, while prices will come under pressure. With both ends squeezed, the bottom line has to suffer. Financial engineering, federal bail-outs and anticipated results from 1-800-HELP, which has supported high stock prices, can work only so long.

I will discuss more in the Sunday Week In Review.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
IBKR 30.920 +3.050 +10.9 2.1M
HDB 114.880 +5.790 +5.3 547.2K
IBN 47.200 +2.350 +5.2 3.9M
KSS 50.650 +2.390 +5 8.8M
AET 43.910 +1.650 +3.9 5.6M
WHR 76.400 +2.510 +3.4 2.6M
UBS 36.000 +1.090 +3.1 3.5M
NUE 75.730 +2.280 +3.1 4.5M
DOW 40.860 +1.200 +3 6.1M
JCP 43.200 +1.230 +2.9 3.8M
KB 66.900 +1.850 +2.8 457.9K
BHP 84.500 +1.980 +2.4 2.8M
GSK 45.120 +1.000 +2.3 1.1M
BA 84.840 +1.840 +2.2 8.4M
ECA 81.920 +1.770 +2.2 3M
SU 115.130 +2.360 +2.1 2.8M
TGT 53.980 +1.080 +2 11.3M
OXPS 21.500 +0.420 +2 771.8K
TM 102.060 +1.960 +2 518.6K
BBD 22.140 +0.420 +1.9 6M
GS 192.000 +3.560 +1.9 12.2M
COST 71.540 +1.320 +1.9 4.6M
NTES 20.360 +0.330 +1.6 1.6M
IMO 57.100 +0.900 +1.6 330.1K
GE 33.330 +0.520 +1.6 41.5M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
SNDK 26.840 -0.940 -3.4 8.4M
RIMM 120.040 -3.620 -2.9 18.9M
TCK 45.470 -1.170 -2.5 1.1M
CHL 87.100 -1.850 -2.1 2.6M
CHA 67.000 -1.350 -2 502K
ORCL 21.590 -0.420 -1.9 28.7M
YHOO 26.800 -0.500 -1.8 50.2M
CSCO 25.600 -0.430 -1.7 53.4M
TS 52.080 -0.840 -1.6 1.7M
GGB 37.130 -0.580 -1.5 4.9M
KO 59.330 -0.920 -1.5 9.4M
WFMI 31.190 -0.480 -1.5 3.1M
ADBE 36.890 -0.540 -1.4 4.6M
DNA 71.970 -0.950 -1.3 2.6M
CHRW 62.320 -0.810 -1.3 1.1M
PDA 52.720 -0.630 -1.2 209.9K
MBT 74.410 -0.800 -1.1 1.4M
MFC 37.960 -0.360 -0.9 868.3K
WAG 35.490 -0.330 -0.9 6.7M
VIP 29.360 -0.260 -0.9 2.8M
AMAT 19.100 -0.160 -0.8 17.6M
SBUX 15.860 -0.130 -0.8 19.7M
CCL 39.450 -0.300 -0.8 4.7M
SLW 14.590 -0.110 -0.7 2.9M
ABB 30.070 -0.180 -0.6 3.3M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
WMT 58.040 57.650 +0.200 +0.35 16.98M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
NTES 20.360 +1.6 1.6M +239
IBKR 30.920 +10.9 2.1M +205
PTR 149.500 -0.2 2.7M +126
YHOO 26.800 -1.8 50.2M +124
GGB 37.130 -1.5 4.9M +99
GFI 13.860 +1.1 9.2M +63
KSS 50.650 +5 8.8M +58
AET 43.910 +3.9 5.6M +40
IBN 47.200 +5.2 3.9M +39
PDA 52.720 -1.2 209.9K +37
ABX 39.670 +1.1 11.1M +35
RIO 37.920 +1.6 29.8M +34
SBUX 15.860 -0.8 19.7M +34
CVX 92.690 +0.3 12.7M +31
WAG 35.490 -0.9 6.7M +30
WHR 76.400 +3.4 2.6M +30
CCL 39.450 -0.8 4.7M +29
WFMI 31.190 -1.5 3.1M +23
TGT 53.980 +2 11.3M +22
BA 84.840 +2.2 8.4M +21
COST 71.540 +1.9 4.6M +20
BC 16.350 +1 2.1M +18
CHA 67.000 -2 502K +18
SWK 48.930 +1.3 781.6K +16
ERTS 51.530 +0.1 3.5M +15

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
AET CSFB --- 45.00 Underperform Neutral
WMT Merrill Lynch --- 65.00 Neutral Buy
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NKE McAdams Wright --- 71.00 Buy Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT61.6988.2566.6650.91Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $61.87, -0.29% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
ECA81.9281.4763.5950.14Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-22 at $84.94, -3.56% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
WMT57.6581.1581.2180.74Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
ABB30.0775.1370.9980.38Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
RIO37.9273.3465.0154.21Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $37.33, +1.58% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
GGB37.1372.6870.1851.33Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $37.71, -1.54% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
NUE75.7372.0374.7166.86Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $73.45, +3.10% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
COST71.5471.8771.1177.72Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
EXC86.3971.7469.1464.14Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-21 at $86.32, +0.08% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
TT46.0371.0761.2641.28
PBR123.3370.6063.2756.47Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $126.18, -2.26% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
CHRW62.3269.5576.1667.30Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $62.32, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
BHP84.5068.8472.7067.50
STO34.7067.3671.3658.91
JNJ67.3163.3471.0875.69
WBK117.3161.8758.5871.45
HDB114.8861.6961.6978.92
LLTC34.6759.9071.5976.21
MICC109.3459.0460.7978.35
HBC85.7856.2872.3470.24
IBKR30.9254.7955.3275.77
DOW40.8653.9668.8976.12
GOOG544.0651.4960.7173.82
BBBY33.4351.1263.0272.44
DIS32.3650.2058.4873.37
PTR149.5049.8457.0478.27
GS192.0049.6159.0080.57
INFY43.1248.6464.4673.40
BA84.8448.3162.9082.62
IBN47.2047.1751.5777.74
KSS50.6544.2965.4987.15
GSK45.1237.7452.9970.62

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX15.8611.8431.9224.22Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-25 at $15.86, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
BC16.3513.7945.6658.84
DELL19.1121.8639.2649.83Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-04-16 at $18.72, +2.08% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
GOL15.0023.6326.0944.85Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $14.78, +1.49% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
BBD22.1426.7517.0110.41Accumulation Zone (for 8 days)
WFMI31.1928.7232.2130.52
GRMN46.0931.9523.1149.16
DNA71.9743.5336.3928.19
ABX39.6749.3633.8628.18
YHOO26.8049.8345.4326.59
PG66.5550.7239.0821.74
SLW14.5952.7837.1224.98
GG36.5959.3742.2628.19


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
BA 84.84 1.84 2.22% 7.86% 10.38% 15.48% -2.05% 10.14% -11.63% -10.40%
GM 21.38 -0.73 -3.30% 6.21% 8.97% 14.52% -12.41% -17.10% -43.27% -31.19%
C 26.60 0.84 3.26% 5.93% 13.87% 27.70% -8.02% -0.15% -35.48% -50.56%
AXP 47.77 2.59 5.73% 4.92% 10.09% 10.71% -6.41% 5.13% -20.06% -23.35%
JPM 47.79 0.82 1.75% 4.44% 12.37% 11.89% 13.33% 9.51% 3.78% -9.52%
HD 29.78 0.86 2.97% 3.84% 5.72% 8.77% 14.06% 4.38% -3.00% -24.61%
DIS 32.36 0.42 1.31% 3.29% 7.22% 4.39% 1.63% 12.83% -6.07% -8.38%
T 38.58 -0.07 -0.18% 2.85% 3.43% 2.44% -5.90% 9.42% -5.90% -1.43%
VZ 37.04 0.68 1.87% 2.80% 4.07% 3.32% -14.28% -1.91% -17.52% -1.62%
MRK 40.72 0.75 1.88% 2.41% -1.02% -8.51% -29.02% -14.79% -28.64% -22.28%
WMT 57.65 0.20 0.35% 2.38% 5.20% 10.61% 22.92% 19.88% 31.38% 18.11%
MCD 59.67 0.09 0.15% 2.35% 7.71% 7.55% 2.70% 10.30% 2.76% 22.70%
GE 33.33 0.52 1.58% 1.96% 3.99% -8.96% -9.33% -1.97% -17.01% -5.87%
JNJ 67.31 -0.06 -0.09% 1.20% 1.98% 4.88% 2.12% 7.76% 5.25% 4.07%
UTX 72.68 -0.02 -0.03% 0.23% 4.53% 6.02% -3.36% -0.10% -4.01% 6.82%
INTC 22.56 -0.13 -0.57% 0.04% 6.21% 8.51% -11.01% 12.80% -12.86% 1.35%
PFE 20.43 0.39 1.95% -0.20% -0.10% -0.34% -10.82% -9.64% -15.89% -22.38%
CVX 92.69 0.29 0.31% -0.53% 4.38% 9.69% -0.82% 13.29% 1.60% 18.35%
MSFT 29.83 -1.97 -6.19% -0.57% 5.48% 6.88% -15.30% -9.44% -6.75% 2.90%
BAC 38.30 0.43 1.14% -0.67% 3.68% 0.60% -5.57% -2.99% -18.51% -25.24%
PG 66.55 -0.28 -0.42% -0.92% -4.93% -4.16% -7.97% 1.90% -6.73% 4.75%
IBM 123.08 -1.11 -0.89% -1.06% 6.10% 7.43% 17.57% 17.76% 9.10% 21.31%
KO 59.33 -0.92 -1.53% -1.30% -1.59% -2.64% -2.88% 1.58% -3.21% 14.67%
AIG 47.53 0.56 1.19% -1.45% 7.90% 11.05% -15.58% -10.69% -23.08% -32.08%
AA 35.72 0.87 2.50% -1.49% 1.62% -1.08% -1.13% 16.39% -6.95% -0.11%
HPQ 47.45 -0.90 -1.86% -1.52% 4.35% 2.95% -4.74% 8.48% -7.67% 13.33%
XOM 92.46 -0.14 -0.15% -1.64% 4.33% 8.50% -1.12% 10.15% 0.97% 15.69%
CAT 82.25 0.43 0.53% -3.55% 9.96% 6.69% 16.45% 24.75% 10.15% 12.32%
DD 49.88 0.19 0.38% -4.11% 1.11% 7.41% 14.04% 11.54% 3.19% -0.18%
MMM 77.82 -1.31 -1.66% -6.13% -0.83% -0.17% -5.91% 3.06% -9.61% 1.10%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List