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April 19, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, Apr 19, 2008

Markets Re-cap

A major advance in the US equity markets occurred on Friday with the DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 small caps all rising +1.8% and the NASDAQ Composite up +2.6%.

Spectacular 1Q results from Google (GOOG +20.0%) [net income of $1.31 billion vs $1 billion a year-ago] and a positive surprise from Citi (C) [a 1Q net loss of $5.11 billion, but beating revenue expectations and with much smaller-than-expected write-downs] pushed Industrials (XLI +3.0%) and Financials (XLF +2.2%) much higher.

For the week, the DJIA/S&P500 gained +4%, while NASDAQ jumped +5%.

A significant USD rally pulled down the Yen (-1.09%), Swiss Franc (-1.11%), and Euro (-0.54%), which, in addition to profit-taking, hammered down the precious metal prices. The Pound Sterling and Cdn Loonie gained +0.31% and +0.55% respectively, on the day.

$GOLD plunged -$27.70/oz to 915.20, although the Euro was actually stronger than it was on Tuesday when $GOLD closed at 932. So, there is definite profit-taking as well as currency pressure.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) rebounded to close at a new all-time record $116.16/bbl. There were refinery concerns in Illinois following an earthquake.

Trading in the US Treasury debt markets were affected by another rise in the 3-month LIBOR rate. The 30-year long-bond ($USB -0.21%) was down even though the yield ($TYX -0.15%) was also down. The big move in Treasuries happened in T-Bills as cash rushed back into equities to chase prices higher. The T-Bill yield ($IRX) gained +9.1% to 1.32%, signally trader satisfaction with the Citi write-down report.


Comments & Outlook

I opined early Friday, “Rather than continue to lower rates, I believe the Fed will now work toward a stronger $USD policy to achieve a similar impact.”

You knew if that happened, and it started a couple hours later, that Gold and Silver prices were headed lower, which happened. But what I didn’t say was that the Fed has no choice. Inflation is out of control in the US and elsewhere and the US authorities must keep it under control. The higher $USD, however, will depress any significant movement to the upside for equity prices except for carefully coordinated market operations from the Treasury, Fed and Humungous Bank & Broker. These rallies, then, are merely bull traps for the rest of us to sell into strength.

At the end of the day, there will be a second shoe to drop in the bankers’ de-leveraging and re-capitalization process. There will also be a continuous pull-back in housing prices, not only in America but elsewhere, which will put not only home-owners deeper underwater, but will sink some large size banks in the process, again not only in the US, but in the UK, Europe, and Japan.

So far, the Friendly Fed has not strangled the US banks like the Peoples Bank of China has to its nation’s counterpart commercial and investment banks. The credit squeeze underway there, has taken the Shanghai Composite down from 6124.04 in October and 5522.77 in January to just 3094.66 at the close this week. That loss in China of -49.5% and -44.0% from the equity market highs just 3 and 6 months ago, will be the sort of thing that ultimately could happen in other countries that are interested in prudent treasury management.

I think the leadership by the monetary authorities in many countries is pathetic. They are listening to bankers who are telling them that a multi-trillion dollar problem caused by bankers is no longer the bankers’ problem.

What this situation has done is to push me into day-trading forex, and potentially metals futures, both of which represent money and will sustain a value even in a depression. But to say there is a “future” (a sad pun) in equities [or even in debt instruments at such currently low interest rates], under the present circumstances is to accept the pretense that all is well.

Even in China, where European and North American scribes write daily of the exciting +11-12% GNP growth, there isn’t a single trader who could have survived a 100% long position in the past 3 and 6 months.

This global capital market is about bankers and credit and it’s a mess. How people can look upon it positively is beyond me. But, hey, I’m just one of you. Our contra opinion is what makes markets.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
GOOG 539.410 +89.870 +20 18.2M
GRMN 45.460 +2.960 +7 6.8M
CTSH 30.960 +1.700 +5.8 5.7M
SNDK 27.400 +1.500 +5.8 18.5M
INFY 43.080 +2.030 +4.9 5.2M
BBBY 32.390 +1.520 +4.9 9.1M
CEO 178.320 +7.960 +4.7 648.1K
MBT 75.280 +3.330 +4.6 3.3M
GS 179.930 +7.830 +4.5 16.9M
LEH 45.500 +1.860 +4.3 28.9M
OXPS 20.610 +0.840 +4.2 915.2K
JCP 40.290 +1.620 +4.2 3.5M
CHL 86.740 +3.340 +4 7.2M
RIMM 123.220 +4.590 +3.9 20.2M
VIP 31.080 +1.080 +3.6 3M
SBUX 18.280 +0.620 +3.5 12.4M
TM 101.550 +2.980 +3 769.8K
ECA 86.230 +2.480 +3 3.1M
ABB 27.970 +0.770 +2.8 2.5M
ORCL 21.800 +0.600 +2.8 47.2M
CHRW 60.210 +1.650 +2.8 1.7M
KSS 45.790 +1.240 +2.8 4.7M
TS 54.300 +1.440 +2.7 1.7M
MFC 38.580 +1.020 +2.7 1.1M
CCL 42.480 +1.080 +2.6 4.5M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
SLW 16.400 -0.820 -4.8 3.8M
GFI 14.320 -0.640 -4.3 8.5M
ABX 43.760 -1.400 -3.1 9M
PTR 126.150 -2.290 -1.8 1.3M
GG 41.560 -0.710 -1.7 9M
PDA 50.670 -0.660 -1.3 196.5K
ABV 76.790 -0.770 -1 890.6K
KO 60.110 -0.570 -0.9 11.1M
VCP 31.410 -0.280 -0.9 366.7K
TGP 28.500 -0.250 -0.9 2.6M
IBKR 27.870 -0.230 -0.8 788.1K
DNA 72.720 -0.590 -0.8 3.4M
GGB 37.260 -0.300 -0.8 2M
GOL 15.200 -0.110 -0.7 690.7K
WFMI 32.950 -0.230 -0.7 2.8M
WMT 56.310 -0.360 -0.6 19.7M
PG 67.170 -0.390 -0.6 18.3M
DEO 83.110 -0.410 -0.5 473.6K
NTES 20.340 -0.060 -0.3 879.2K
BBD 21.680 -0.060 -0.3 8.6M
AMAT 19.130 -0.040 -0.2 28.8M
RIO 37.930 -0.050 -0.1 20.6M
EXC 87.080 -0.020 -0 4.7M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
ECA 86.390 86.230 +2.480 +2.96 3.15M
TT 46.970 46.650 +0.110 +0.24 1.52M
PBR 126.640 125.490 +0.000 +0.00 9.88M
EXC 88.040 87.080 -0.020 -0.02 4.66M
WMT 57.360 56.310 -0.360 -0.64 19.74M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
GOOG 539.410 +20 18.2M +199
CHL 86.740 +4 7.2M +138
WHR 82.010 +0.7 3M +86
SNDK 27.400 +5.8 18.5M +79
ABV 76.790 -1 890.6K +78
MBT 75.280 +4.6 3.3M +76
QCOM 42.550 +1.1 29.5M +75
PG 67.170 -0.6 18.3M +60
ERTS 52.010 +1.1 4.9M +53
EXC 87.080 -0 4.7M +44
GS 179.930 +4.5 16.9M +44
PDA 50.670 -1.3 196.5K +43
CTSH 30.960 +5.8 5.7M +42
UTX 72.510 +2.4 7M +39
GFI 14.320 -4.3 8.5M +39
TOT 81.160 +1.1 2.1M +36
CEO 178.320 +4.7 648.1K +34
NOK 29.000 +0.2 26.4M +34
INFY 43.080 +4.9 5.2M +33
BBBY 32.390 +4.9 9.1M +31
NTES 20.340 -0.3 879.2K +30
ATVI 27.490 +0 5.4M +29
PTR 126.150 -1.8 1.3M +23
KO 60.110 -0.9 11.1M +23
ECA 86.230 +3 3.1M +18

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
GOOG Collins Stewart --- --- Hold Buy
GOOG Jefferies --- 600.00 Hold Buy
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
PAYX FTN Midwest Res --- --- Buy Neutral
UTX Gabelli --- --- Buy Hold
NOK JP Morgan --- --- Overweight Underweight
NOK UBS Securities --- --- Buy Neutral
GSK JP Morgan --- --- Neutral Underweight
EXC Jefferies --- 90.00 Buy Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NOK Davenport --- 32.00 Buy Neutral
PG Deutsche Bank 76.00 74.00 Buy Hold


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT64.0890.4673.2976.07Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
WMT56.3182.4978.1767.92Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-18 at $56.31, +0.00% chg], after a 4 day DZ)
ECA86.2381.1176.5080.38Distribution Zone (for 4 days)
GG41.5678.9757.8354.52
GGB37.2678.3470.9963.35Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-04-11 at $35.94, +3.67% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ATVI27.4977.7760.0267.42
RIMM123.2277.2066.8064.50
EXC87.0872.5572.8682.45Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
NKE67.8972.4764.2161.98
TT46.6572.1070.8766.10
PBR125.4972.0566.2881.94
PDA50.6771.8057.7259.93
RIO37.9371.2065.0773.52Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-17 at $37.98, -0.13% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
SU116.2171.0067.9883.63
IMO58.9570.6267.0474.64Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-17 at $58.44, +0.87% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
NUE73.9269.5672.0966.83
COST69.4368.5166.3676.35
CHRW60.2168.3771.9165.41
TS54.3066.1272.3075.64
CHL86.7465.9969.3172.34
CEO178.3264.4162.9477.48
CVX93.1864.4067.7084.12
BHP80.9664.3668.7272.13
ORCL21.8063.9866.8276.13
XOM94.0063.5568.5882.89
TCK47.6362.5571.0064.52
TOT81.1662.1364.5472.28
JNJ66.5160.9166.7770.86
NTES20.3458.7558.7470.62
LLTC33.4357.0867.3870.45
HBC84.8555.3370.1163.57
GOOG539.4151.5259.7780.73
DOW39.9851.0664.3575.78
PAYX36.7549.5164.3374.11
INFY43.0849.0064.4585.46
CCJ37.8948.3054.7270.83
DB121.5748.1461.2972.04
BBBY32.3947.7459.5970.83
UBS35.3234.2551.0071.74

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX18.2819.9747.3763.71
BBD21.6822.3716.387.77Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
BC16.0524.1242.8148.17
GOL15.2026.0027.1039.58
DELL19.4728.5642.1060.75Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-16 at $18.72, +4.01% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
JCP40.2928.6644.9756.30
AET41.7929.8721.2247.59Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-15 at $42.07, -0.67% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
GRMN45.4634.7921.4840.08Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-10 at $46.56, -2.36% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
OXPS20.6135.3829.0350.90
NOK29.0044.2934.5426.46
DNA72.7244.7938.5016.49
PG67.1755.1442.5618.55


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CAT 85.28 6.69 8.51% 14.01% 9.57% 15.46% 20.74% 35.77% 9.81% 22.93%
AIG 48.23 2.06 4.46% 9.49% 1.97% 7.13% -14.33% -7.34% -25.66% -29.54%
JPM 45.76 0.64 1.42% 7.59% 0.42% -0.52% 8.51% 16.14% -0.31% -12.12%
C 25.11 1.08 4.49% 7.49% 4.28% 11.60% -13.17% 2.70% -42.71% -52.61%
IBM 124.40 1.32 1.07% 7.24% 7.46% 5.13% 18.83% 20.31% 8.36% 31.22%
INTC 22.55 0.44 1.99% 6.17% 3.11% 3.68% -11.05% 18.68% -16.39% 5.62%
MSFT 30.00 0.78 2.67% 6.08% 2.88% 2.81% -14.82% -9.12% -3.72% 4.90%
XOM 94.00 0.62 0.66% 6.07% 5.93% 10.59% 0.52% 10.48% -1.10% 20.20%
HPQ 48.18 0.87 1.84% 5.96% 3.84% 3.61% -3.27% 10.13% -8.87% 17.57%
MMM 82.90 2.25 2.79% 5.65% 2.96% 6.31% 0.23% 10.67% -12.49% 7.55%
DD 52.02 0.81 1.58% 5.45% 5.09% 14.46% 18.93% 21.83% 8.04% 5.54%
MCD 58.30 0.97 1.69% 5.23% 4.63% 7.13% 0.34% 11.26% 2.66% 19.27%
CVX 93.18 1.19 1.29% 4.93% 5.83% 11.98% -0.30% 11.65% 0.82% 19.81%
AXP 45.53 0.83 1.86% 4.93% -1.26% -0.98% -10.80% 4.40% -22.38% -22.09%
BAC 38.56 1.09 2.91% 4.39% -2.16% -5.54% -4.93% 7.20% -21.06% -25.59%
UTX 72.51 1.72 2.43% 4.29% 1.09% 5.07% -3.59% 6.55% -6.35% 8.35%
DIS 31.33 0.55 1.79% 3.81% 0.29% -1.79% -1.60% 9.89% -9.92% -10.28%
AA 36.26 0.69 1.94% 3.16% -7.03% 4.56% 0.36% 24.60% -5.52% 5.19%
WMT 56.31 -0.36 -0.64% 2.76% 3.51% 5.79% 20.06% 18.35% 22.71% 17.39%
GM 20.13 0.34 1.72% 2.60% -2.19% 3.23% -17.53% -14.41% -49.54% -36.50%
BA 78.66 1.75 2.28% 2.34% 3.98% 5.16% -9.19% 0.33% -18.86% -16.21%
GE 32.69 0.67 2.09% 2.00% -12.97% -12.80% -11.07% -4.72% -19.86% -6.95%
HD 28.68 0.56 1.99% 1.81% -0.38% 2.21% 9.84% 9.13% -9.47% -26.54%
VZ