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April 5, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, Apr 05, 2008

Markets Re-cap

On Friday, the US equity markets bounced on the further hope for Fed relief after the steep -80,000 jobs loss was reported. Fed relief is now translated as being dilution to the fiat money, leading to a commodity price rally, which happened.

By the end of the session, prices were mixed, with the DJIA down -0.13%, while the S&P 500 (+0.08%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.30%) were up.

With the US Jobs Report, which is published the first Friday of every month, there was an indication that the unemployment rate lifted to +5.1%, which is its highest point since 2005.

On the deals front, Honeywell International (HON) announced a purchase of Norcross Safety Products for $1.2 billion.

On the earnings front, Mosaic (MOS) 3Q net income surged from $42.2 million a year earlier to $520.8 million, due to rising prices and demand.


Comments & Outlook

Without stealing thunder from the Week In Review, which will be published Sunday afternoon, I would like to ask a few questions to those of you who are listening to the bullish case being presented to the public by Humungous Bank & Broker.

1. When was the last time in history that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had to bail out Wall Street, as it did a couple weeks ago to Bear Stearns (BSC)? At the beginning of the Great Depression in 1932.

"A 1932 provision of the Federal Reserve Act allows the Fed to lend to non-banks if at least five of its seven governors approve. That provision was last regularly used during the Great Depression. It is meant to underscore that the central bank should lend to non-banks only in extreme circumstances."

2. Which investment bank is widely believed to be the next weakest on Wall Street, after Bear Stearns? It is Lehman Brothers (LEH). Lehman Brothers sits on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

As I understand it, the Federal Bank of New York has, in the past month or so since the latest lending facility was created by the Board, lent almost $200 billion (about half its balance sheet, which used to be fully liquid and hence a tool for monetary policy) to Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, accepting in return illiquid securities, the very type that almost crashed Bear Stearns when no other bank would buy or lend against them.

3. Which investment banks started the humungous share buy-back of its own treasury shares at the peak of the equity market cycle in 2007? Lehman Brothers. Then Merrill Lynch. Do you recall my blogs to the effect asking why any investment bank would buy their stock at the top and not the bottom of the cycle? Do you recall me telling you why I thought it was happening? I said they were using shareholder capital to buy the stock from Friends & Family and the best clients who would return to the table after the shares had plummeted. Well, surprise, surprise.

Bill Cara: Week #17 (2007-04-28) in Review (FINAL)
The share buy-back says it all. The shorts are being squeezed. .... A week ago, Lehman Bros (LEH) and Merrill Lynch (MER) rocketed +8.2 pct +6.7 pct, ...
billcara.com/archives/2007/04/week_17_20070428_in_review_ini.html

Bill Cara: Week #18 (2007-05-05) in Review (FINAL)
Two weeks ago, Merrill Lynch (MER) rocketed +6.7 pct, whereas a week ago it was down -2.1 ... The shareholders have spoken: they like the share buy-back. ...
billcara.com/archives/2007/05/week_18_20070505_in_review_ini.html

4. Which banks, among others, are now refusing to permit clients to withdraw cash from their “near cash” accounts that had been represented as being liquid securities? Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch are clearly there in the lead.

5. If a person cannot pay collateralized debt, and as a consequence will be thrown out of their home by their banker, would that person be so inclined to repay their banker the principal and interest owing on uncollateralized debt in the form of credit card debt? Millions have been evicted, and tens of millions of Americans are now sitting in homes that have less cash value than mortgage obligation. In effect, renting would be cheaper, but the banks won’t let them unless they declare bankruptcy. But can they go bankrupt now with the new bankruptcy laws and get off the hook with the bankers?

6. After these problems in credit markets happened, because of errors in judgment by bankers, how much in total did the bankers pay themselves year-end bonuses out of capital (not from profits because the write-downs have eliminated (or will soon) most of those profits? Thirty-eight billion. How much did those investment banks borrow from the Fed last week alone just to stay solvent? Thirty-eight billion.

DC, do you really think the public doesn’t get it?


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
GGB 36.150 +1.610 +4.7 3.4M
SLW 16.670 +0.650 +4.1 2.9M
TGP 30.070 +1.140 +3.9 79.7K
BHP 73.220 +2.670 +3.8 5M
UBS 33.650 +1.160 +3.6 8.9M
GOOG 471.090 +15.970 +3.5 5.9M
TCK 44.870 +1.310 +3 1.2M
CHRW 58.950 +1.510 +2.6 2.9M
ERJ 41.460 +1.010 +2.5 703.6K
CCJ 35.320 +0.850 +2.5 2.3M
GRMN 54.070 +1.260 +2.4 4.8M
SU 102.050 +2.370 +2.4 1.9M
GG 40.490 +0.940 +2.4 6.9M
BC 17.410 +0.380 +2.2 2.5M
ERTS 51.940 +1.090 +2.1 3.5M
RIO 36.670 +0.720 +2 28M
PAYX 36.390 +0.620 +1.7 4.5M
LEH 44.050 +0.730 +1.7 19.4M
STO 31.090 +0.460 +1.5 846.1K
UTX 71.730 +0.970 +1.4 4.5M
BMY 22.190 +0.300 +1.4 8M
GSK 45.330 +0.610 +1.4 1.2M
NUE 70.540 +0.940 +1.4 7.4M
DEO 85.990 +1.110 +1.3 1.1M
TEF 90.520 +1.080 +1.2 306.9K

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
HDB 95.400 -3.280 -3.3 809.9K
DELL 19.530 -0.590 -2.9 31.5M
SNDK 25.840 -0.630 -2.4 12.7M
RIMM 119.990 -2.590 -2.1 24.4M
TM 97.980 -2.060 -2.1 1.2M
RY 47.620 -0.900 -1.9 859.6K
KB 64.140 -1.190 -1.8 575K
MFC 39.410 -0.700 -1.7 1.1M
ORCL 20.350 -0.330 -1.6 53.9M
INFY 36.850 -0.560 -1.5 5.1M
IBN 38.930 -0.470 -1.2 3.6M
TGT 52.670 -0.580 -1.1 7M
CCL 41.660 -0.440 -1 3.5M
WBK 115.700 -1.170 -1 27.1K
WMT 54.400 -0.530 -1 20.7M
LLTC 32.230 -0.300 -0.9 5M
DIS 31.240 -0.290 -0.9 12.5M
MICC 94.180 -0.810 -0.9 832.7K
IBKR 28.700 -0.240 -0.8 526.6K
GOL 15.790 -0.130 -0.8 395.1K
WAG 37.900 -0.290 -0.8 4.9M
HBC 84.750 -0.640 -0.7 543.7K
GE 37.560 -0.280 -0.7 30.3M
DB 117.740 -0.870 -0.7 399.6K
BA 75.650 -0.490 -0.6 5.1M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GGB 36.800 36.150 +1.610 +4.66 3.38M
CHRW 59.430 58.950 +1.510 +2.63 2.94M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
CHL 81.440 +0 5.4M +63
DEO 85.990 +1.3 1.1M +61
BC 17.410 +2.2 2.5M +58
TM 97.980 -2.1 1.2M +53
INFY 36.850 -1.5 5.1M +53
SNDK 25.840 -2.4 12.7M +36
CHRW 58.950 +2.6 2.9M +35
CHA 65.140 -0.5 674.7K +32
DELL 19.530 -2.9 31.5M +31
GGB 36.150 +4.7 3.4M +24
NUE 70.540 +1.4 7.4M +19
RIO 36.670 +2 28M +13
ORCL 20.350 -1.6 53.9M +12

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
BHP Bernstein --- --- Mkt Perform Outperform
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
DELL WR Hambrecht --- --- Buy Hold
DELL Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Neutral
• PREVIOUS SESSION
CSCO UBS Securities --- --- Buy Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT61.5583.0470.4372.69Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
GGB36.1578.9968.8778.50
PBR110.8077.7553.4565.74
RIO36.6777.4261.5673.07
NUE70.5475.6869.2855.86
ATVI27.4075.5959.7660.74
NKE68.5175.5168.9263.06Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-02 at $67.97, +0.79% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
TT46.3375.4971.7662.72
EXC83.1774.2364.6365.28
WMT54.4073.3672.6668.27Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-04 at $54.40, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
KO60.2572.6153.9245.79
ECA76.6971.8762.2660.03
RIMM119.9970.8066.5062.79
CHRW58.9567.7773.4767.04
BHP73.2266.0957.8778.56
TEF90.5265.7957.4273.07
CHL81.4463.2960.9574.58
TCK44.8762.2165.4571.72
STO31.0956.1557.4871.81
HBC84.7553.5271.9766.72
PAYX36.3948.0864.7482.72
DOW38.8542.8457.8772.41
TGP30.0742.4454.6982.00
GSK45.3338.3551.8476.23
SNDK25.8429.9748.4070.87

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX18.5021.0146.5661.80
UBS33.6522.6544.4768.45
TM97.9823.0627.9733.00
GOL15.7924.7829.8846.84
INFY36.8526.5540.5253.28
JCP40.1827.8142.1147.42
KSS44.8227.9950.6653.30
DELL19.5328.1037.1141.96
BC17.4128.7151.6562.40
BA75.6529.2238.5649.23
AET42.0729.4415.7137.57
SNDK25.8429.9748.4070.87
GRMN54.0732.1527.2839.08
IBN38.9337.4124.6143.72


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
C 24.08 -0.28 -1.15% 15.60% 7.02% 13.75% -16.74% -17.02% -49.44% -53.12%
AIG 47.30 0.31 0.66% 10.51% 5.06% 10.31% -15.99% -14.47% -31.37% -29.74%
GM 20.58 -1.01 -4.68% 10.23% 5.54% -7.92% -15.69% -12.98% -44.86% -33.68%
AA 39.00 0.46 1.19% 8.00% 12.46% 1.64% 7.94% 11.84% 3.56% 13.04%
AXP 46.11 -0.57 -1.22% 6.86% 0.28% 11.67% -9.66% -6.17% -22.84% -18.11%
JPM 45.57 -0.71 -1.53% 6.70% -0.93% 21.94% 8.06% 11.34% -3.56% -6.16%
DD 49.50 0.42 0.86% 6.59% 8.91% 6.52% 13.17% 14.11% -0.26% -0.12%
INTC 21.87 -0.06 -0.27% 5.19% 0.55% 10.07% -13.73% -3.53% -14.57% 12.85%
HD 28.79 -0.43 -1.47% 5.15% 2.60% 11.76% 10.26% 15.34% -14.67% -24.46%
UTX 71.73 0.97 1.37% 4.64% 3.94% 4.21% -4.63% -4.39% -10.44% 10.47%
MSFT 29.16 0.16 0.55% 4.48% -0.07% 5.77% -17.21% -15.18% -1.85% 2.32%
WMT 54.40 -0.53 -0.96% 4.37% 2.20% 8.84% 15.99% 18.99% 20.89% 13.22%
CVX 88.05 0.33 0.38% 4.20% 5.82% 0.28% -5.79% -5.68% -4.13% 16.55%
VZ 37.34 -0.73 -1.92% 4.16% 3.38% 5.84% -13.58% -12.35% -17.79% -1.79%
PFE 21.35 0.01 0.05% 4.15% 3.69% -1.11% -6.81% -6.48% -15.61% -17.28%
XOM 88.74 0.51 0.58% 4.13% 4.40% 5.01% -5.10% -3.63% -2.40% 15.08%
BAC 39.41 -0.96 -2.38% 3.52% -3.45% 7.91% -2.84% -1.10% -24.79% -22.56%
MMM 80.52 0.35 0.44% 3.30% 3.26% 3.30% -2.65% -1.52% -14.57% 4.35%
BA 75.65 -0.49 -0.64% 2.97% 1.14% -4.85% -12.66% -11.85% -27.61% -16.20%
GE 37.56 -0.28 -0.74% 2.59% 0.19% 14.30% 2.18% 4.22% -9.93% 6.98%
JNJ 65.73 0.46 0.70% 2.42% 0.54% 4.95% -0.27% -0.17% -0.57% 7.24%
T 38.48 -0.53 -1.36% 2.18% 4.42% 9.88% -6.15% -5.89% -8.36% -1.91%
PG 70.60 0.13 0.18% 1.67% 1.77% 6.15% -2.36% -1.97% -0.32% 11.97%
IBM 115.76 -0.26 -0.22% 1.04% -2.17% 2.88% 10.57% 14.47% 0.06% 20.32%
CAT 77.83 0.76 0.99% 0.96% 5.38% 10.01% 10.19% 13.57% -1.03% 15.34%
DIS 31.24 -0.29 -0.92% 0.77% -2.07% -0.03% -1.88% 0.35% -10.49% -9.82%
HPQ 46.40 -0.56 -1.19% 0.67% -0.22% -2.89% -6.85% -1.00% -8.06% 12.90%
MCD 55.72 -0.52 -0.92% 0.43% 2.39% 5.05% -4.10% -2.33% -0.57% 23.19%
KO 60.25 -0.31 -0.51% -1.13% -1.29% 1.95% -1.38% -2.59% 4.11% 21.82%
MRK 40.00 1.64 4.28% -10.13% -7.75% -5.64% -30.28% -29.64% -24.33% -11.84%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLF 26.36 -0.40 -1.49% 6.94% 0.46% 9.02% -7.05% -3.73% -25.54% -26.25%
SMH 30.44 -0.08 -0.26% 6.69% 4.64% 7.03% -2.93% 4.07% -19.83% -10.58%
XLB 42.91 0.42 0.99% 6.50% 12.04% 4.02% 3.90% 5.22% 1.59% 11.43%
XLE 77.31