New home sales in the US in March fell to a 17-year low, down -8.5% to a seasonally adjusted 526,000 units. Elsewhere on the economic front, the employment market improved a bit with a +33K decline in weekly jobless claims to 342K. But, Durable Goods Orders for March fell -0.3%.

In the UK, the economy is growing at the slowest rate in the past 3 years. And in Japan, the inflation data was so shocking, bonds soared and the futures market had to shut down. In Germany, the highly regarded IFO business confidence index yesterday had a shocking and abrupt fall due to inflation worries, which caused a sudden change in the currency markets. The International Heral Tribune has reported that business confidence in France is the worst in 1 1/2 years. The Euro, which had been pushed to almost 1.60 just a couple days ago, is trading down at 1.5571 this morning.

On the US earnings front, Ford (F) swung to a quarterly profit, PepsiCo (PEP) earnings jumped +4.7% Y/Y, but Dow Chemical (DOW) Q1 net income fell -3.3%.

Today the world’s largest maker of wireless networks, Ericsson of Sweden said its Q1 earnings fell -55% to $445.6 million, which, because that was better than expected and sales were up +4.8%, sent the shares soaring +25% in the local market.

Nomura Holdings, Japan's largest securities firm, reported a record quarterly loss after $1.26 billion on write-downs related to bond insurers, which was 15 times worse than the lowest estimate there. Elsewhere in Japan, the strong Yen and exploding raw material costs hit Honda Motor (the largest profit drop in 10 years) and Mitsubishi Motors with massive losses.

Crude oil ($WTIC) yesterday dropped -$2.24/bbl to 116.06, but the futures this morning were up +$0.91/bbl for various reasons given by media.

$GOLD, which dropped -$16.20/oz a day ago 909.00, fell yesterday on the strong $USD (+1.05% to 72.57) a further -$19.60/oz to 889.40.

This morning at 8:45am ET, the spot prices for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are soft at 887.8, 432.5, 1932 and 16.74, although have firmed a bit in the past 20 minutes. The USD is strong again, and the June Euro is down to 1.5571. What I projected Tuesday for a significant trend reversal is likely occurring.

June DJIA futures this morning are a bit stronger (+43) to 12886.

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Comments & Outlook

The markets are being manipulated by hedge funds probably a little more than usual. Yesterday’s move in the Cara 100 US traded ADR’s in India were given a huge boost, and today the BSE 30 (India’s main equity index) was up +2.42% to 17126. The same thing occurred with the main US-traded Japanese stocks, and today the Nikkei 225 of Japan was up +2.38% to 13863. Yet, the consumer and business confidence is tracking the economic and corporate profits lower.

This morning I watched with amazement as Bloomberg trotted out some old-timer money manager to say he thought that GE was in fine shape, headed to 50. I saw the same thing in 1999 at the market top.

I do not accept market leadership from Financials or Consumer Discretionary (many of the US retailers really popped yesterday) during an extreme credit market contraction, particularly when inflation is roaring, and the housing industry sinking. I suspect that these markets are being promoted while organized networks of bankers and their Friends and Family are selling and shorting.

I have said all along that the world’s other major G-7 economies of Japan, Europe and the UK are in dreadful shape and that when the news started to sink in, the Euro would sink against the US Dollar, causing a massive sell-off of commodities. We have seen that this week in precious metals.

Gold stocks are the caboose in the market train and the last car over the roller-coaster peak. The Toronto Composite index has taken a hammering this week, down yesterday -103 (-0.74%) to 13966 and the Toronto Venture index was even worse, falling -38 -1.50% to 2479.

Some of the junior miners have been beaten up, and the picture is no different than the stock charts of 1981-2. I suspect it will get worse, and the high-cost, high-burn rate, weakly-financed juniors are in for more downside. This is the time in the market when even stock promoters for the juniors have to look themselves in the mirror and decide to stop drinking their lemonade. I wouldn’t want to be in many of these stocks without (i) confidence the picture was going to change, and (ii) my margin was cleared, and my outlook was long-term.

That’s how I see it anyway. I only point this out because I cannot stand to see another brain-dead or massively conflicted Wall Streeter tell the TV audience there is nothing to fear in this market. I think the NASDAQ has about -15% downside risk and the DJIA possibly double that.

That’s just one person’s view.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SYT	62.21	89.72	71.87	55.48	Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $61.87, +0.55% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
WMT	57.45	83.32	83.08	79.15	Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
ECA	80.15	80.80	63.49	41.00	Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-04-22 at $84.94, -5.64% chg], after a 5 day DZ)
GGB	37.71	77.54	74.71	57.99	Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $37.71, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
ABB	30.25	75.80	71.87	84.64	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
COST	70.22	74.87	69.89	71.87
RIO	37.33	72.87	62.94	48.41	Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $37.33, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
EXC	85.51	72.28	66.98	56.65	Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-21 at $86.32, -0.94% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
TT	46.00	72.10	62.34	39.85
PBR	122.05	71.67	61.05	52.58	Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-04-23 at $126.18, -3.27% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
RIMM	123.66	71.51	68.78	59.99
NUE	73.45	70.03	77.15	56.22	Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $73.45, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
CHRW	63.13	70.02	86.81	75.24	Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
CHL	88.95	66.08	70.32	71.00	Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $88.95, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
STO	34.29	65.68	71.06	55.34
TS	52.92	64.68	70.46	50.93
JNJ	67.37	64.03	71.28	78.39
ORCL	22.01	60.72	72.11	78.42
MICC	109.63	60.26	61.89	79.60
WBK	117.75	60.14	58.22	73.73
LLTC	34.74	59.74	79.86	78.02
HDB	109.73	58.40	53.41	70.42
GOOG	543.04	50.99	62.37	73.55
PTR	149.73	49.76	55.96	79.15
INFY	43.08	48.41	63.04	73.34
CSCO	26.03	46.94	62.00	79.32
GS	188.79	46.30	59.89	77.48
BA	83.00	46.00	59.56	78.50
KSS	48.26	36.57	64.04	80.37

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SBUX	15.99	12.13	24.75	25.27	Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
BC	16.19	13.94	43.17	56.27
DELL	19.14	23.12	36.51	50.89	Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-16 at $18.72, +2.24% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BBD	21.72	25.00	17.00	8.58	Accumulation Zone (for 7 days)
GOL	14.78	26.17	24.48	39.19	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-24 at $14.78, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WFMI	31.67	28.54	32.17	35.40
BDK	67.89	28.71	47.73	52.32
JCP	41.97	29.23	48.40	63.89
GRMN	46.09	32.10	26.97	49.10
AET	42.26	32.90	25.72	52.09
WHR	73.89	36.12	31.76	20.54
NOK	28.59	38.96	33.10	28.90
ABX	39.23	48.92	29.44	23.73
PG	66.83	51.67	41.42	24.18
SLW	14.70	52.78	36.52	26.27
GG	36.30	59.94	40.63	25.49

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	22.11	1.17	5.59%	11.72%	9.62%	14.80%	-9.42%	-13.70%	-42.85%	-28.14%
MSFT	31.80	0.35	1.11%	8.83%	9.24%	13.37%	-9.71%	-4.36%	1.76%	10.46%
BA	83.00	0.91	1.11%	7.92%	5.83%	11.83%	-4.18%	6.93%	-11.95%	-11.39%
C	25.76	1.13	4.59%	7.20%	8.65%	18.22%	-10.93%	-5.74%	-38.40%	-51.22%
CAT	81.82	0.13	0.16%	4.11%	8.07%	6.22%	15.84%	25.39%	7.96%	12.37%
JPM	46.97	1.82	4.03%	4.10%	7.09%	9.59%	11.38%	4.47%	1.51%	-9.95%
MCD	59.58	0.89	1.52%	3.92%	6.68%	7.45%	2.55%	10.33%	4.25%	22.92%
DIS	31.94	0.30	0.95%	3.77%	1.88%	1.78%	0.31%	9.27%	-8.90%	-8.51%
T	38.65	0.12	0.31%	2.87%	1.18%	2.63%	-5.73%	8.11%	-6.98%	-1.15%
HD	28.92	0.79	2.81%	2.84%	1.90%	4.07%	10.76%	-2.17%	-6.35%	-26.43%
UTX	72.70	0.84	1.17%	2.70%	1.18%	4.74%	-3.34%	0.19%	-4.95%	7.27%
INTC	22.69	0.13	0.58%	2.62%	2.76%	7.59%	-10.49%	9.67%	-12.76%	3.42%
GE	32.81	0.45	1.39%	2.47%	-10.72%	-10.92%	-10.75%	-5.31%	-18.44%	-5.61%
JNJ	67.37	0.11	0.16%	2.45%	1.57%	4.26%	2.22%	6.08%	4.55%	4.47%
HPQ	48.35	0.33	0.69%	2.20%	3.82%	3.67%	-2.93%	7.71%	-6.30%	16.09%
MRK	39.97	1.35	3.50%	1.91%	-4.17%	-10.74%	-30.33%	-19.35%	-28.88%	-22.54%
AIG	46.97	3.11	7.09%	1.73%	3.09%	8.08%	-16.57%	-14.66%	-26.43%	-32.34%
VZ	36.36	0.03	0.08%	1.42%	1.48%	1.11%	-15.85%	-4.89%	-18.14%	-3.30%
WMT	57.45	0.53	0.93%	1.38%	5.10%	9.70%	22.49%	17.46%	30.96%	17.99%
AXP	45.18	0.80	1.80%	1.07%	0.27%	0.78%	-11.48%	-4.10%	-23.35%	-25.82%
BAC	37.87	1.01	2.74%	1.07%	0.48%	-1.99%	-6.63%	-5.09%	-20.24%	-25.19%
IBM	124.19	0.59	0.48%	0.90%	4.55%	7.51%	18.63%	16.16%	9.95%	26.09%
CVX	92.40	-2.08	-2.20%	0.45%	3.13%	9.48%	-1.13%	10.43%	2.78%	19.84%
KO	60.25	-0.07	-0.12%	-0.71%	-1.76%	-1.73%	-1.38%	0.62%	0.12%	16.40%
XOM	92.60	-1.62	-1.72%	-0.84%	3.41%	7.42%	-0.97%	7.67%	0.51%	17.81%
PG	66.83	-0.34	-0.51%	-1.08%	-4.77%	-3.72%	-7.58%	1.03%