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Technical Evaluation of International Business Machines NYSE:IBM
Dow 30 GICS 45
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst

Executive Summary

This stock is in a bull market. After a Fib50% downswing, it has resumed its uptrend. The information technology sector is under performing the market and IBM is out performing both its piers and the market.

We give this stock a rating of 3 (neutral) over a possible 5 and would keep monitoring IBM.
The trend

Point and Figure trend

(Chart #1) Please click link.

• Four successive Buy signals.
• Short term Support is $102.00.
• Short term Resistance is $120.00.
• Long Term trend reversal is a close below $92.00.
• Trading just a few points from the current cycle High ($120.00).
• Most probable low is $92-$95.

Traditional Technical Analysis trend

The Daily view

(Chart #2) Please click link.

• Short term trend is up.
• Intermediary trend is up as stock is trading above rising MA 50 days ($112.18).
• Long term trend is up as stock is trading above rising MA 200 days ($110.34 - red arrow).
• Is trading near MA 400 days Bollinger Band ($122.81) (purple line). This represents “above average evaluation” given all currently know fundamental information.

The Weekly view

(Chart #3) Please click link.

• Long term trend is up.
• RSI (7) confirms longer term uptrend.
• The first part of the bear market correction was a low near Fib50%. For the time being $95.00 would be the critical downside price point should the stock “Double top.

The Monthly view

(Chart #4) Please click link.

• After a very long term “triangle breakout in the summer of 2007, the stock reached its first resistance level in the $120.00-121.00 area.
• Very long term “triangle” projection provide a price target over the high of 1999.

The Traders’ view

(Chart #5) Please click link.

• Short term trend is up.
• Support is $115.00
• Resistance is $118.00.
• Have received three buy signals.

Relative strength (RS)

Sector / Industry relative strength

(Chart #6) Please click link.

• The Information Technology is now under performing the Global index.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.
• This sector should be gradually under weighted.

Stock Specific relative strength

With respect to the Sector

(Chart #7) Please click link.

• IBM has been out performing its peers recently.
• The longer term trend is positive, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is positive.

With respect to the Benchmark

(Chart #8) Please click link.

• IBM has been out performing the benchmark recently.
• The longer term trend is positive, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is positive.

/Pierre Brodeur

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Technical Evaluation of Hewlett-Packard NYSE:HPQ

Dow 30 GICS 45
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jun. 11)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst

Executive Summary

This stock is in a bull market in point & figure terms but many could argue that traditional TA measures confirm that it has reversed in a bear market. The information technology sector is under performing the market and HPQ is under-performing both its peers and the market.

We give this stock a rating of 1 over a possible 5 and would avoid HPQ.

The trend

Point and Figure trend

(Chart #1) Please click link.

• Two successive Buy signals.
• Short term Support is $45.00.
• Short term Resistance is $49.00.
• Long Term trend reversal is a close below $35.00.
• From the current cycle High ($53.00) to the Low ($40.00), a drop of 24.5%.
• Most probable low is $34-$35.

Traditional Technical Analysis trend

The Daily view

(Chart #2) Please click link.

• Short term trend is down.
• Intermediary trend is down as stock is trading below rising MA 50 days ($45.93).
• Long term trend is down as stock is trading below flat MA 200 days ($47.99 - red arrow).
• Is trading just above MA 400 days ($44.28) (purple arrow and purple dotted …… line). This represents “reasonable evaluation” given all currently know fundamental information.

The Weekly view

(Chart #3) Please click link.

• Long term trend is down.
• RSI (7) confirms longer term downtrend.
• The first part of the bear market correction was a low near Fib38.2%. Next leg target would be $34.50.

The Monthly view

(Chart #4) Please click link.

• No special insight.

The Traders’ view

(Chart #5) Please click link.

• Short term trend is down.
• Support is $44.50
• Resistance is $48.
• Have received two sell signals.

Relative strength (RS)

Sector / Industry relative strength

(Chart #6) Please click link.

• The Information Technology is now under performing the Global index.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.
• This sector should be gradually under weighted.

Stock Specific relative strength

With respect to the Sector

(Chart #7) Please click link.

• HPQ has been under performing its peers recently.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.

With respect to the Benchmark

(Chart #8) Please click link.

• HPQ has been under performing the benchmark recently.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.

/Pierre Brodeur

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Comments & Outlook

As you know, I support the continuing work of Dave Patch (“Patchie”) to outline weakness in the regulatory fabric of US capital markets. In his latest blog (April 10), he writes about more dubious practices on Wall Street that he believes are intended to harm Overstock.com. He calls the piece, “Several options for fraud”. I hope you read it.

This is a serious issue for those of you who are interested in having a level playing field. Right now, one does not exist and it won’t ever happen unless we fight for it. You can do your part by contacting Dave Patch and asking him to have your voice heard at the SEC.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
PBR	115.17	88.06	57.28	75.35
GGB	36.84	78.71	72.75	70.92	Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
SYT	59.68	76.97	64.78	55.42	Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-07 at $60.82, -1.87% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ECA	79.55	76.64	70.78	76.77	Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
TT	46.13	74.25	67.83	53.24
RIO	36.36	74.02	60.88	61.79
WMT	54.66	73.24	76.03	67.30	Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-04 at $54.40, +0.48% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
ATVI	27.03	72.98	54.88	44.03
ABV	80.33	71.68	57.08	58.32
NKE	67.37	71.44	67.36	55.69	Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-02 at $67.97, -0.88% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
RIMM	120.68	70.47	67.63	60.62
NUE	71.65	69.03	75.64	58.74
BHP	77.97	68.53	63.90	79.75
CHL	82.86	66.44	61.12	70.54
CHRW	57.75	63.44	75.37	54.18
SU	107.29	63.24	61.04	78.00
TCK	46.86	61.78	67.17	70.17
STO	32.79	60.19	65.36	81.38
JNJ	66.33	59.84	68.48	71.38
CVX	89.60	59.22	59.51	73.39
TOT	78.44	55.11	58.20	72.30
ERJ	43.95	48.96	55.78	73.57
CCJ	37.42	45.43	53.38	72.41
TGP	30.23	43.98	56.92	73.85

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SBUX	17.55	15.06	34.84	40.71
BC	16.18	25.36	40.41	39.71
TM	95.41	26.24	27.41	27.14	Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
INFY	36.25	26.71	39.95	46.48
DELL	18.77	27.11	31.05	32.21	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-10 at $18.77, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UBS	33.67	29.19	45.19	61.15
OXPS	20.78	33.08	25.94	41.34
GRMN	46.56	33.60	20.26	24.45	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-10 at $46.56, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
AET	42.13	34.86	19.11	41.70

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MRK	41.71	0.77	1.88%	8.73%	-6.86%	-1.74%	-27.30%	-31.02%	-21.64%	-9.05%
BA	78.43	-0.17	-0.22%	3.01%	5.67%	8.25%	-9.46%	-4.77%	-20.52%	-13.66%
IBM	118.78	2.01	1.72%	2.38%	2.82%	1.46%	13.46%	18.88%	0.13%	23.14%
CVX	89.60	-0.35	-0.39%	2.14%	6.16%	3.31%	-4.13%	-2.50%	-2.69%	16.30%
JNJ	66.33	0.04	0.06%	1.62%	2.65%	6.04%	0.64%	-2.33%	0.76%	7.56%
UTX	71.85	1.04	1.47%	1.54%	3.52%	5.35%	-4.47%	-0.75%	-10.75%	11.48%
XOM	89.55	-0.15	-0.17%	1.50%	3.89%	4.16%	-4.23%	-2.30%	-3.84%	15.44%
KO	61.33	0.55	0.90%	1.27%	0.03%	3.62%	0.39%	-6.45%	5.98%	22.46%
DD	49.64	0.60	1.22%	1.14%	6.98%	6.57%	13.49%	9.63%	1.29%	0.96%
INTC	22.08	0.66	3.08%	0.68%	4.69%	4.55%	-12.90%	-2.04%	-14.68%	6.77%
MSFT	29.11	0.22	0.76%	0.38%	3.78%	1.68%	-17.35%	-15.21%	-3.70%	2.50%
MMM	80.35	0.76	0.95%	0.22%	3.20%	2.46%	-2.85%	0.17%	-16.14%	5.03%
PG	70.18	-0.03	-0.04%	-0.41%	1.11%	4.68%	-2.95%	-3.17%	-1.71%	11.03%
WMT	54.66	0.52	0.96%	-0.49%	4.37%	8.69%	16.55%	12.93%	19.89%	14.02%
DIS	31.35	0.50	1.62%	-0.57%	-0.10%	-0.19%	-1.54%	2.22%	-11.14%	-10.40%
MCD	55.85	0.11	0.20%	-0.69%	0.72%	4.00%	-3.87%	-3.99%	-2.07%	20.60%
HPQ	46.57	0.48	1.04%	-0.83%	-0.15%	-1.48%	-6.50%	2.71%	-10.87%	14.37%
CAT	75.71	-0.45	-0.59%	-1.76%	-1.71%	0.61%	7.19%	12.31%	-6.72%	13.08%
PFE	20.92	0.03	0.14%	-1.97%	1.75%	-1.69%	-8.69%	-13.12%	-18.09%	-19.54%
T	38.20	0.01	0.03%	-2.08%	1.43%	8.15%	-6.83%	-3.05%	-8.50%	-3.17%
C	23.71	0.13	0.55%	-2.67%	8.81%	11.79%	-18.02%	-15.65%	-49.70%	-54.75%
HD	28.38	0.71	2.57%	-2.87%	2.12%	8.61%	8.69%	12.26%	-15.66%	-25.77%
GE	36.75	0.31	0.85%	-2.88%	-0.22%	8.22%	-0.03%	2.31%	-12.10%	5.36%
AIG	45.56	0.00	0.00%	-3.04%	4.83%	4.38%	-19.08%	-21.19%	-33.52%	-31.90%
AXP	45.06	-0.02	-0.04%	-3.47%	0.51%	5.43%	-11.72%	-7.89%	-27.19%	-20.12%
JPM	43.86	-0.44	-0.99%	-5.23%	2.33%	13.60%	4.01%	6.12%	-6.50%	-10.93%
VZ	35.83	-0.19	-0.53%	-5.88%	-0.36%	3.61%	-17.08%	-17.54%	-21.48%	-5.21%
AA	36.11	-0.73	-1.98%	-6.31%	2.06%	-4.45%	-0.06%	14.85%	-6.76%	3.47%
GM	20.17	0.04	0.20%	-6.58%	4.72%	-3.63%	-17.37%	-14.82%	-47.10%	-37.13%
BAC	37.69	-0.24<