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April 11, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, Apr 11, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Although I am unable to complete a Daily Report at this time, I do have two valuable reports for your consideration, one on IBM and the other Hewlett-Packard, which are the subjects of the Value Line reports on DJIA companies released today.


Technical Evaluation of International Business Machines NYSE:IBM
Dow 30 GICS 45
(IBM: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jul. 11)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst

Executive Summary

This stock is in a bull market. After a Fib50% downswing, it has resumed its uptrend. The information technology sector is under performing the market and IBM is out performing both its piers and the market.

We give this stock a rating of 3 (neutral) over a possible 5 and would keep monitoring IBM.
The trend

Point and Figure trend

(Chart #1) Please click link.

• Four successive Buy signals.
• Short term Support is $102.00.
• Short term Resistance is $120.00.
• Long Term trend reversal is a close below $92.00.
• Trading just a few points from the current cycle High ($120.00).
• Most probable low is $92-$95.

Traditional Technical Analysis trend

The Daily view

(Chart #2) Please click link.

• Short term trend is up.
• Intermediary trend is up as stock is trading above rising MA 50 days ($112.18).
• Long term trend is up as stock is trading above rising MA 200 days ($110.34 - red arrow).
• Is trading near MA 400 days Bollinger Band ($122.81) (purple line). This represents “above average evaluation” given all currently know fundamental information.

The Weekly view

(Chart #3) Please click link.

• Long term trend is up.
• RSI (7) confirms longer term uptrend.
• The first part of the bear market correction was a low near Fib50%. For the time being $95.00 would be the critical downside price point should the stock “Double top.

The Monthly view

(Chart #4) Please click link.

• After a very long term “triangle breakout in the summer of 2007, the stock reached its first resistance level in the $120.00-121.00 area.
• Very long term “triangle” projection provide a price target over the high of 1999.

The Traders’ view

(Chart #5) Please click link.

• Short term trend is up.
• Support is $115.00
• Resistance is $118.00.
• Have received three buy signals.

Relative strength (RS)

Sector / Industry relative strength

(Chart #6) Please click link.

• The Information Technology is now under performing the Global index.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.
• This sector should be gradually under weighted.

Stock Specific relative strength

With respect to the Sector

(Chart #7) Please click link.

• IBM has been out performing its peers recently.
• The longer term trend is positive, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is positive.

With respect to the Benchmark

(Chart #8) Please click link.

• IBM has been out performing the benchmark recently.
• The longer term trend is positive, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is positive.


/Pierre Brodeur


Technical Evaluation of Hewlett-Packard NYSE:HPQ

Dow 30 GICS 45
(HPQ: Value Line Report Apr. 11: next one is due Jun. 11)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008
by Pierre Brodeur, Cara Trading Advisors chief technical/quant analyst

Executive Summary

This stock is in a bull market in point & figure terms but many could argue that traditional TA measures confirm that it has reversed in a bear market. The information technology sector is under performing the market and HPQ is under-performing both its peers and the market.

We give this stock a rating of 1 over a possible 5 and would avoid HPQ.

The trend

Point and Figure trend

(Chart #1) Please click link.

• Two successive Buy signals.
• Short term Support is $45.00.
• Short term Resistance is $49.00.
• Long Term trend reversal is a close below $35.00.
• From the current cycle High ($53.00) to the Low ($40.00), a drop of 24.5%.
• Most probable low is $34-$35.

Traditional Technical Analysis trend

The Daily view

(Chart #2) Please click link.

• Short term trend is down.
• Intermediary trend is down as stock is trading below rising MA 50 days ($45.93).
• Long term trend is down as stock is trading below flat MA 200 days ($47.99 - red arrow).
• Is trading just above MA 400 days ($44.28) (purple arrow and purple dotted …… line). This represents “reasonable evaluation” given all currently know fundamental information.

The Weekly view

(Chart #3) Please click link.

• Long term trend is down.
• RSI (7) confirms longer term downtrend.
• The first part of the bear market correction was a low near Fib38.2%. Next leg target would be $34.50.

The Monthly view

(Chart #4) Please click link.

• No special insight.

The Traders’ view

(Chart #5) Please click link.

• Short term trend is down.
• Support is $44.50
• Resistance is $48.
• Have received two sell signals.

Relative strength (RS)

Sector / Industry relative strength

(Chart #6) Please click link.

• The Information Technology is now under performing the Global index.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.
• This sector should be gradually under weighted.

Stock Specific relative strength

With respect to the Sector

(Chart #7) Please click link.

• HPQ has been under performing its peers recently.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.

With respect to the Benchmark

(Chart #8) Please click link.

• HPQ has been under performing the benchmark recently.
• The longer term trend is negative, the last signal is a sell and the short term trend is negative.

/Pierre Brodeur


Comments & Outlook

As you know, I support the continuing work of Dave Patch (“Patchie”) to outline weakness in the regulatory fabric of US capital markets. In his latest blog (April 10), he writes about more dubious practices on Wall Street that he believes are intended to harm Overstock.com. He calls the piece, “Several options for fraud”. I hope you read it.

This is a serious issue for those of you who are interested in having a level playing field. Right now, one does not exist and it won’t ever happen unless we fight for it. You can do your part by contacting Dave Patch and asking him to have your voice heard at the SEC.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
CCJ 37.420 +1.600 +4.5 6.9M
CEO 159.280 +6.500 +4.3 483.2K
CHL 82.860 +2.650 +3.3 3.3M
NUE 71.650 +2.250 +3.2 4.3M
KSS 43.720 +1.320 +3.1 10.3M
INTC 22.080 +0.660 +3.1 72M
JCP 40.070 +1.150 +3 4.8M
YHOO 28.590 +0.820 +3 32.7M
CHA 66.540 +1.830 +2.8 301.4K
BMY 22.090 +0.580 +2.7 16M
KB 64.750 +1.700 +2.7 525.1K
QCOM 42.580 +1.070 +2.6 16.7M
AMAT 20.180 +0.500 +2.5 25.7M
ERJ 43.950 +1.070 +2.5 908.4K
ABV 80.330 +1.920 +2.4 858.1K
STO 32.790 +0.780 +2.4 1.3M
GGB 36.840 +0.820 +2.3 2.8M
CSCO 24.040 +0.510 +2.2 62.6M
RIMM 120.680 +2.520 +2.1 21.3M
ADBE 37.090 +0.770 +2.1 8.4M
LLTC 32.060 +0.570 +1.8 6.3M
TCK 46.860 +0.810 +1.8 1.2M
DIS 31.350 +0.500 +1.6 12.2M
PAYX 35.850 +0.560 +1.6 3.4M
TGT 53.160 +0.820 +1.6 11.6M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
IBN 40.130 -0.980 -2.4 1.9M
WHR 85.210 -1.840 -2.1 1.9M
GS 170.550 -3.590 -2.1 14.7M
PDA 48.080 -0.920 -1.9 118.9K
SNDK 26.720 -0.490 -1.8 13.2M
MBT 80.450 -1.210 -1.5 1.2M
DB 117.110 -1.130 -1 567K
UBS 33.670 -0.300 -0.9 4.5M
IMO 53.900 -0.480 -0.9 381.7K
WBK 105.500 -0.890 -0.8 30.6K
WAG 36.620 -0.290 -0.8 6.8M
TS 51.300 -0.380 -0.7 1.2M
TGP 30.230 -0.220 -0.7 51.1K
LEH 40.250 -0.290 -0.7 32.4M
TOT 78.440 -0.550 -0.7 1.5M
RIO 36.410 -0.240 -0.7 18.5M
ABB 27.000 -0.130 -0.5 7.7M
BHP 77.970 -0.340 -0.4 3M
CVX 89.600 -0.350 -0.4 9.1M
HDB 99.810 -0.370 -0.4 279.9K
WFMI 32.990 -0.120 -0.4 2.7M
CHRW 57.750 -0.210 -0.4 2.2M
TEF 89.920 -0.300 -0.3 229.2K
DOW 38.600 -0.120 -0.3 5.9M
SLW 16.450 -0.050 -0.3 2.2M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
WMT 55.330 54.660 +0.520 +0.96 28.97M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GRMN 44.700 46.560 +0.660 +1.44 5.38M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
TM 95.410 +0.2 2.8M +224
CCJ 37.420 +4.5 6.9M +157
BBBY 29.670 +0.7 16.6M +147
KSS 43.720 +3.1 10.3M +84
ABB 27.000 -0.5 7.7M +75
INFY 36.250 +0.7 5.4M +69
DNA 78.000 +0.4 6.2M +68
ABV 80.330 +2.4 858.1K +62
CTSH 27.990 +0.6 5.9M +55
WHR 85.210 -2.1 1.9M +49
SNDK 26.720 -1.8 13.2M +34
WMT 54.660 +1 29M +26
INTC 22.080 +3.1 72M +25
BMY 22.090 +2.7 16M +22
YHOO 28.590 +3 32.7M +15
MICC 90.490 +1.4 963.6K +15
DELL 18.770 +0.4 30.8M +14
ERJ 43.950 +2.5 908.4K +12
WAG 36.620 -0.8 6.8M +11
BDK 67.430 -0.2 950.3K +10

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
INTC Banc of Amer --- 27.00 Neutral Buy
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
PTR Smith Barney --- --- Hold Sell
• PREVIOUS SESSION
PG Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Neutral
BBBY Piper Jaffray --- --- Neutral Sell


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
PBR115.1788.0657.2875.35
GGB36.8478.7172.7570.92Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
SYT59.6876.9764.7855.42Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-04-07 at $60.82, -1.87% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ECA79.5576.6470.7876.77Distribution Zone (for 2 days)
TT46.1374.2567.8353.24
RIO36.3674.0260.8861.79
WMT54.6673.2476.0367.30Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-04-04 at $54.40, +0.48% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
ATVI27.0372.9854.8844.03
ABV80.3371.6857.0858.32
NKE67.3771.4467.3655.69Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-04-02 at $67.97, -0.88% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
RIMM120.6870.4767.6360.62
NUE71.6569.0375.6458.74
BHP77.9768.5363.9079.75
CHL82.8666.4461.1270.54
CHRW57.7563.4475.3754.18
SU107.2963.2461.0478.00
TCK46.8661.7867.1770.17
STO32.7960.1965.3681.38
JNJ66.3359.8468.4871.38
CVX89.6059.2259.5173.39
TOT78.4455.1158.2072.30
ERJ43.9548.9655.7873.57
CCJ37.4245.4353.3872.41
TGP30.2343.9856.9273.85

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX17.5515.0634.8440.71
BC16.1825.3640.4139.71
TM95.4126.2427.4127.14Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
INFY36.2526.7139.9546.48
DELL18.7727.1131.0532.21Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-10 at $18.77, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UBS33.6729.1945.1961.15
OXPS20.7833.0825.9441.34
GRMN46.5633.6020.2624.45Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-04-10 at $46.56, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
AET42.1334.8619.1141.70


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
MRK 41.71 0.77 1.88% 8.73% -6.86% -1.74% -27.30% -31.02% -21.64% -9.05%
BA 78.43 -0.17 -0.22% 3.01% 5.67% 8.25% -9.46% -4.77% -20.52% -13.66%
IBM 118.78 2.01 1.72% 2.38% 2.82% 1.46% 13.46% 18.88% 0.13% 23.14%
CVX 89.60 -0.35 -0.39% 2.14% 6.16% 3.31% -4.13% -2.50% -2.69% 16.30%
JNJ 66.33 0.04 0.06% 1.62% 2.65% 6.04% 0.64% -2.33% 0.76% 7.56%
UTX 71.85 1.04 1.47% 1.54% 3.52% 5.35% -4.47% -0.75% -10.75% 11.48%
XOM 89.55 -0.15 -0.17% 1.50% 3.89% 4.16% -4.23% -2.30% -3.84% 15.44%
KO 61.33 0.55 0.90% 1.27% 0.03% 3.62% 0.39% -6.45% 5.98% 22.46%
DD 49.64 0.60 1.22% 1.14% 6.98% 6.57% 13.49% 9.63% 1.29% 0.96%
INTC 22.08 0.66 3.08% 0.68% 4.69% 4.55% -12.90% -2.04% -14.68% 6.77%
MSFT 29.11 0.22 0.76% 0.38% 3.78% 1.68% -17.35% -15.21% -3.70% 2.50%
MMM 80.35 0.76 0.95% 0.22% 3.20% 2.46% -2.85% 0.17% -16.14% 5.03%
PG 70.18 -0.03 -0.04% -0.41% 1.11% 4.68% -2.95% -3.17% -1.71% 11.03%
WMT 54.66 0.52 0.96% -0.49% 4.37% 8.69% 16.55% 12.93% 19.89% 14.02%
DIS 31.35 0.50 1.62% -0.57% -0.10% -0.19% -1.54% 2.22% -11.14% -10.40%
MCD 55.85 0.11 0.20% -0.69% 0.72% 4.00% -3.87% -3.99% -2.07% 20.60%
HPQ 46.57 0.48 1.04% -0.83% -0.15% -1.48% -6.50% 2.71% -10.87% 14.37%
CAT 75.71 -0.45 -0.59% -1.76% -1.71% 0.61% 7.19% 12.31% -6.72% 13.08%
PFE 20.92 0.03 0.14% -1.97% 1.75% -1.69% -8.69% -13.12% -18.09% -19.54%
T 38.20 0.01 0.03% -2.08% 1.43% 8.15% -6.83% -3.05% -8.50% -3.17%
C 23.71 0.13 0.55% -2.67% 8.81% 11.79% -18.02% -15.65% -49.70% -54.75%
HD 28.38 0.71 2.57% -2.87% 2.12% 8.61% 8.69% 12.26% -15.66% -25.77%
GE 36.75 0.31 0.85% -2.88% -0.22% 8.22% -0.03% 2.31% -12.10% 5.36%
AIG 45.56 0.00 0.00% -3.04% 4.83% 4.38% -19.08% -21.19% -33.52% -31.90%
AXP 45.06 -0.02 -0.04% -3.47% 0.51% 5.43% -11.72% -7.89% -27.19% -20.12%
JPM 43.86 -0.44 -0.99% -5.23% 2.33% 13.60% 4.01% 6.12% -6.50% -10.93%
VZ 35.83 -0.19 -0.53% -5.88% -0.36% 3.61% -17.08% -17.54% -21.48% -5.21%
AA 36.11 -0.73 -1.98% -6.31% 2.06% -4.45% -0.06% 14.85% -6.76% 3.47%
GM 20.17 0.04 0.20% -6.58% 4.72% -3.63% -17.37% -14.82% -47.10% -37.13%
BAC 37.69 -0.24<