Thank you for providing us with the opportunity to learn about financial services, Bill!

Re: Credit Derivatives And Junior Precious Metals Focus Shares

Its likely that the financial services industry is overwhelmingly in favour of Credit Derivatives Swaps instead of Credit Derivative Obligations when it comes to junior precious metals focus shares.

Credit Derivative Swaps and not unlike a put option futures contract and a written in case of a a share price decline.

Eventually somebody will have a lightbulb go off in their heads and start writing Credit Derivative Obligations against junior precious metals focus shares as a contrarian bet, and this will balance out the negative bias price fixing behaviour in the junior precious metals focus shares.

A late season rally in gold prices will almost ensure this will occur.

F6

Bill, I though you would be interested on some charts pointing to extreme levels of PPI components such as Crude, Intermediate and Finished Goods taken as ratios of each other.

I posted the results and these ratios are at levels associated with reversals for commodities.

So I expect an imminent correction in commodity prices and a rally for the US Dollar.
See
http://wrahal.blogspot.com/2008/04/stretched-to-limit.html

sitting back and waiting to add to my gold position on a break above $960 or $800-$820 if we continue the recent slide.

surprised some of my JR golds didnt crash as hard as they typically have on these washouts.
this is an encouraging sign but i dont think we are out of the water yet.

Thanks Bill!

Well, accumulating long positions while the DJ-30 was testing its April 1st open last week paid off nicely! Wasn’t sure about the blast through resistance, but volume looks good. Our feeling is it will likely hold, although the SP-500 looks a lot less decisive that the Dow. Would expect some consolidation and even some more upside next week.

Seeing the broadest (on a percentage basis) buying last week in Internet, Utility, Oil, Software, Telecom, Energy, Real Estate, Materials and Retail sectors. The broadest selling (or better phrased the weakest buying) in Drugs, Biotech and Health Services. Overall, it appears some defensive stuff was neglected last week, another case for continuing the upside exploration next week. For those interested, our weekly sector report is now FREE so you can get the low down on all 273 sectors we track.

Keep those seat belts fastened.

Good Trading All…
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

Bil said today
Shanghai Composite down from 6124.04 in October and 5522.77 in January to just 3094.66 at the close this week. That loss in China of -49.5% and -44.0% from the equity market highs just 3 and 6 months ago

Remember NAZ at 5000
well shanghai is down 50%
and 50% more to go that will give Shanghai 75% hair cut.
My question is why FXP is not going up?

Re: Junior Precious Metals Focus

I truly wonder if there's anybody in the investment world contemplating writing call options on junior precious metals focus shares. These shares are so obviously priced inefficiently, they are becoming screaming buys.

Some of these companies are trading at less than a third of their net asset value and would present an opportunity for call option contracts with a strike price a few times above their share price for a short term duration till that last week of May.

Does such a thing exist for venture exchange stocks?

Bloomberg reporting Former Bank of England policy maker Willem Buiter says Bank Of England,will need to offer loan swaps to financial institutions of at least 100 billion pounds ($200 billion) to kick-start the U.K. mortgage market.

Question regarding the excellent article by Noland (posted by eventhorizon on yesterday's thread, "Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two" http://tinyurl.com/2ezjnr).

Last paragraph, what does he mean by "When the Fed and Washington radically altered the rules of U.S. finance last month, they placed in jeopardy huge positions that had been put in place to hedge against and profit from systemic crisis."

Which are these huge positions and how would they profit from the systemic crisis?

Re: Credit Derivatives

(this came via email, courtesy Bob Bronson)

Are Credit Derivatives Next?

Future Is Looking Gloomier
Amid Concern on Collateral,
Some Counterparty Worries
April 17, 2008; Page C14

In the good years, the lightning-fast growth of the market for credit derivatives -- private financial contracts that act as a form of insurance against bond and loan defaults -- was feted as a Wall Street success story. But since the credit crisis exposed the financial sector's fragility, and the flaws in bank risk management, it is starting to look ominous.

Credit derivatives outstanding surged 37% in the second half of last year alone and covered roughly $62 trillion of debt at year end, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, or Isda. Since the collateralized-debt-obligation machine that gobbled a lot of default swaps was moribund at that point, most of that volume increase reflects attempts to hedge or bet on the credit market's collapse.

Of course, that is what credit derivatives are for. Still, the growth of the market for derivatives overall raises troubling questions. The $455 trillion of such contracts has bound the financial system in a web of counterparty relationships that could magnify and spread the fallout from small problems.

That is because a derivative usually isn't cancelled when it is no longer wanted. Rather, a new, mirror-image derivative is created to offset the first one. Banks also balance offsetting exposure with different counterparties, reducing their overall risk. So out of that $455 trillion, net credit exposure is a mere $2.3 trillion.

But that calculation assumes everyone in the market makes good on their obligations in a contract -- meaning no big traders like Bear Stearns Cos. suddenly wink out of existence. Even the failure of a small market participant could gum up the works, as its counterparties scramble to figure out whether they have just taken on, or shed, a bunch of risk.

Banks take steps to cover their exposures, principally by demanding collateral. But according to Isda, 37% of these derivatives aren't subject to collateral agreements. Also, the declining value of loan collateral has been a big driver of the credit crisis. Such a scenario could play out in the derivatives world, too. If so, those soothing net exposure assumptions would prove illusory.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120839719337121787.html?mod=djemITP

Bill, last Thursday you mentioned wanting to look for your mother's brother Alfred Neely in Who's Who in America. This website has a free trial...I wonder if you could find the information here. (Not sure how to use tiny URL)

http://www.marquiswhoswho.com/

http://tinyurl.com/6n7frz

Bill: not wanting to misquote but on several daily commentaries I thought I understood you to say high commodities food/oil/gold are unsustainable in bad economic times, because of affordability by the average person, but I keep thinking of the 70s stagflation which lasted for a long time and trying to reconcile that era with your comments. Perhaps you or someone could shed some light on this. Cheers.

Vinod: RE SSEC/FXI/FXP/HKCE

ALOHA !

Thanks for the IBN heads up..I threw in some INFY and IFN when i saw your post, THANK YOU !! Gorgeous downtrend line breaks..sold them!

On vacation in hawaii...saw your post and here is something to look up to dispel any myth about Shanghai, FXI and FXP correlation ..

What is FXI?
http://www.ftse.com/xinhua/english/

A dated presentation on FXI and other indices through the FTSE/Xinhua joint venture, with dated correlation between FXI25 and the SSEC
http://tinyurl.com/55aeak

Shares that trade in HK and Shanghai like PTR and SNP...they dont even correlate...so do soemthing else with your investment research time. If you trade FXI long enough..you get the sense of when it does and when it doesnt coorelate..to US indices...

IF you are asking whether FXI/FXP correlates...well does it really,really matter to trading or investment returns?

Time is better spent acquiring the wisdom of not shorting the early stages of a gap and run. :)

Thanks again for the stock recommendation..missed CALM...but no worries....always do my own due diligence.

When is Magellan going to hire you? They could use your help!

HAve a great weekend, time to be the ball!

Re: Globex

There were some comments about the effect of the Globex, this article talks about the new electronic exchange in incredulous tones with respect to the gold price:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10018.htm

If its really true that electronic trading allows naked shorting of the price index of gold, then very probably any counterparty in some sort of credit derivative swap on gold's decline, will be obliged to buy up the notional value of their contract should gold's price rise.

QT- in reference to your question from yesterday, it appears both Bill and Colin Twiggs are leaning towards a bull trap:

http://tinyurl.com/58zhnp

note, however, that traps work by (truly) convincing investors to buy/sell...investors in general are an intelligent and skeptical group, so my guess is that you will find a pretty good case for a rally over the next few trading sessions...

i noticed that potash (POT) was overbought already but then it surged to a new 52-week high last friday. the rsiapp tool shows a sell alert. however, i understand it is a hot stock. my naive question is - is a reversal or pullback very likely to happen soon? suppose you have already shorted the stock at a price level which is already higher than the previous 52-week, and it has gone higher still...should you add more short positions? or just cut your losses and get out?

i'm trying to understand how to recognize if emotions are influencing your decision-making process.

i am still learning to trade and have made many mistakes along the way. thanks for the advice :)

Hi susukacang - like you I'm relatively new but would offer a few thghts and perhaps lessons I've lerant form others. (a) you've made good choice with Bills community so stick with it (b) never enter a trade without a stop - never chagne your stop (c) how you calculate your stop is up to you - I've used various methods but now work pretty much on TA - i.e. if it isn't moving as I thght it woulkd to justify my entry then I'm out with my lines in the sand drawn either from S&R lines or Fibs(d)two opposing sites for you to chk out wrt commodity perepctive Tim Knight at SlopeofHope (thinks its a bubble) and Gary over at the cot report (http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/) thinks not. Good luck.

Re: Gold Futures China

Probably the most ignorant comment so far in the gold markets goes out to Zhang Bizhen, General Manager of Beijing Yijing Futures Brokerage:

"The gold future price is currently higher than the spot price due to the appreciation of the Chinese currency."

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Nadler/apr182008B.html

Jawboning.

Hi,

Re PoG next week:

Traders will look for support to be tested at around 900. In my opinion, this is not likely to hold, as PoG appears to be headed dow for a retest of 887, which is also likely to break, projecting the price first to 850, and finally to 770 / 800 area, where it should hold.

I remain out, waiting for the price to come to me, but will not short, because this is a bull market.

Please do not trade on this. This is just my opinion, and I am very often wrong. DYODD.

Cheers!

Hi again,

Further to my previous post Re PoG, I would like to invite Communty Members to comment on a possible head and shoulder formation on GLD chart with a possible neckline at 88.58.

Are you also looking at this possibility?

If you also see this, would you then please comment on a price target of around 76 / 77?

Cheers!

Mom&Pop Stuff:

Precious Metal (PM) purchasing update:

This weekend I am still finding the best physical Silver (AG) purchase to be 1965-1969 JFK half dollars @ 85.227% par or about $2.25 each whereas an AG Eagle was purchased for $18.00 or 1.008% over par using World Price of AG @ $17.84.

For Gold (AU) South African Krugerrand’s where purchased @ par NYMEX 4.18.08 close of $912.20 so a ¼ Troy Ounce (Tz) came @ $228.05.

All the above was purchased at my local coin shop with cash so as to avoid any taxes and the (PM) was in my pocket and on the way to the farm !!

Maromatics:

I can't comment on the tech. analysis of GLD, but I have stopped trading in GLD because of all the reports that the ETF is possibly used to manipulate futures/shorts, makes no guarantees about loss of theft, etc. I feel a lot better about CEF although it is 50/50 gold/silver. I do remain long term bullish and short term uncertain. Out of deference for Bill I am only about 25% invested at this point. I am guessing some sideways trading and bi-directional spikes, but just a hunch. Sorry that is not really much help.

JR,

Thanks.

As previously mentioned, I am also out and waiting.

Nevertheless, I am observing, and this morning as I was looking at several charts this one came up as I was looking at GLD and that is why I put this up for discussion.

Lets wait for clarity.

Cheers!

I for one, don't have as much faith that a decline to $800.- is in the cards. We are not in the same blow-off as had occurred in May 2006. None of the fundamentals have changed measurably for the better, in fact, many of the fundamentals in place are still in place for higher prices in the gold sector.

So the place I go to look at the fundamentals is the ¥/$ chart.

Stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/2s4jga

If you have an account at Stockchart.com, you can greatly expand the chart in order to see it more clearly. Notice that short term yields are rolling over again. It is my believe that gold prices are set to track along with this chart.

Another chart I have been contemplating is the €/¥ chart, which is probably set to rollover, which would support gold prices:

stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/3x7ywk

It had a marvelous spike last week, but in general the technicals are saying a downtrend is occurring. We'll know in the next little while if the € performs like the Swissy against the ¥.

At the very least, if the € stabilizes against the ¥, then that would mean a stable gold price.

I doubt if stable prices are in the cards, given the run-up and downdraft in gold prices, we are going to see more of that.

Don Coxe had commented that the worst thing that governments could do was to impose export taxes and fix prices in agricultural commodities.

The same is happening in the mining world, where we see this week that one of the countries with the greatest mineral wealth in gold is shutting mining down for 180 days:

Bloomberg

http://tinyurl.com/6ayzch

Two companies on my junior precious metals focus watchlist, ARU.TO AND DMM.TO, as well as intermediate miner IMG.TO are all affected. Many people had said that Ecuador was no Venezuela, but I guess miners are about to have a difficult time in that country.

Here's an article from Vanity Fair about research analysts after the dot com bust:

http://tinyurl.com/3vxbns

Business
High prices haven't affected demand for gold
Chennai (PTI): The rising inflation has hit the market hard and the gold price is spiralling to a level beyond expectation, but nothing seems to stop the gold-lust consumers from buying and investing in gold.

Industry experts say that the high prices had not affected sales of gold jewellery. The consumer demand had infact increased to 773.6 tone from 721.9 tonne compared to last year.

World Gold Council Vice-President K Shivram said the gold had outperfomed all other asset classes in recent times and it had given a 30 to 35 per cent return on investment in the last year. "We can safely say gold is an investment for the consumers in the market."

"There has been a renewed interest in Gold ETFs, though they are in their early days of consolidation in Indian markets," he said adding the matured class of investors, who had been already into equity markets, were investing in Gold ETFs and had made better returns in gold than equity in these troubled times.

In the recent times when Indian equity market went into a tizzy hurtling down, there had been a flight of funds from equity to gold, he said.

The scenario, with dollar struggling to hold on against other currencies, high crude oil prices, global equity meltdown in the wake of recessionary fear in the US and static gold mine production, indicated a further rise in prices of gold in the coming days, he said.

GRT Jewellers Managing Director G R Radhakrishnan said high prices had not affected the sales and infact the trend was very positive for designer jewells.

He said, to tap the growing consumer demand across the country, the firm had planned to open more showrooms in the country in the next five years.

re GLD,

i agree weakness may be ahead but im hoping the miners do not collapse this time on a drop in the gold price, confirming that stronger hands are holding these stocks in recognition of what Don Coxe has said that a paradigm change in their valuations will take place when people realize these are no longer volatile cyclicals.

i trade the Canadian gold miners (XGD) because i dont trust the GLD, heres an early morning TA i finished over coffee. for the Canadians:

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/2008/04/canadian-gold-miners-xgdto-1-year-chart.html

I have been to Ecuador twice and I am fluent in Spanish. Most of the population is very poor and they don't like it. I think it is extremely risky to invest there. I would say the same about Venezuela where I have also been several times. Just my two pesos.

dr cosa, thank you for the chart this morning. imo, the XGD.TO is underperforming the $C gold price ($gold:$cdw)

Re: Ecuador

Is one of the richest prospects in the world for gold mining (or if you like copper/gold porphyry then, its your cup of tea).

I'm fairly certain this will have an effect over the whole industry that the benchmark environmental standard is set much higher. For instance, fewer exploitative businesses relying on impoverished labour, and possibly affect heap leaching operations since they poison the ground water.

lead batter for the bull camp: "Five signs the stock market has bottomed-
Investor sentiment, technical indicators, Treasury yields are your best clues"

By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch

http://tinyurl.com/3nfhu8

Woolybear1 -

Some of the best investments are in countries with lots of angry poor people.

Brazil's market (reflected by ETF EWZ) is up over 14 times in 5.5 years.

Largest cap stock market in the developing world, and the fastest growing.

Over the next 30 years, prospects for growth there, are better than here, IMHO.

“Bill, I thought you would be interested in some charts pointing to extreme levels of PPI components such as Crude, Intermediate and Finished Goods taken as ratios of each other.
I posted the results and these ratios are at levels associated with reversals for commodities.
So I expect an imminent correction in commodity prices and a rally for the US Dollar.
See
http://wrahal.blogspot.com/2008/04/stretched-to-limit.html”
I’m not sure I buy it long term.
Looking at the first graph (PPI FG to IM) I notice that the two bottoms in the 70s came near the ends of the oil shocks, both of which were politically driven. IMO this one is secularly driven. Also the second one bottomed around the time Volker’s inflation medicine began to show results. We haven’t even started yet. Although seemingly commodities should back off if the FED signals they’re done raising rates-the question is, how much, especially given Bill’s opinion that Europe may be facing inflationary pressures in order to battle their nascent credit issues.
Getting back to oil, on his (FG to IG vs $ chart) I find it interesting that the most recent acute declining slope seems to have occurred in 2002, which coincides potentially with the inflationary policy after 9/11, but also the secular supply driven rise in oil prices.
My questions: How much of the increase in oil prices are attributable to secular demand and falling supply versus $ inflation? One could argue that corn futures (and other soft commodities) are directly related to this question also? Next, how much of other commodity price increases (food specifically) are secularly derived because of increased emerging market demand and supply constraints? Granted the ethanol boondoggle is significant, but it’s much too politically ingrained, especially in an election year, to be touched.
I’ve always wondered, and am either too lazy and/or not smart enough to figure out where in the supply demand equation of relatively inelastic energy commodities (I group oil and food together because they are both fuels), does pricing become “irrational.” In oil we seem to have reached that level because any threat of supply disruption increases prices. The same seems to be happening with corn and the reduced plantings of other commodities working in a feedback loop. This blog does not convince me that anything but a short term correction may be on the way.

nemo,

if you havent listened to it, consider checking out Don Coxe's weekly webcast here:

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp

he addresses many of the issues you are speaking to,
the idea is that a paradigm change is happening in how we view commodities, especially grains because of the factors you mention. quantifying prices due to increased demand vs. inflation is no easy task. especially as both can fluctuate day to day as things are traded in real time.

Re: Oil

Prices are affected mostly by the decline of the $US and excess liquidity. Refining capacity is also another factor. Geopolitical events have caused stockpiling on top of it.

F6,

agreed,

if the LIBOR rates are fudged like so many other things we rely on to quantify value in various products, then OPEC as a cartel is no more a group of states pumping oil as fast as they can out of the ground to enrich the current regimes before the reality of declining light sweet crude and difficulties of refining sour crude become a page 3 story.

Re: LIBOR

It appears that LIBOR is probably subjected to hedonic calculation. But you know, its a rate set by agreements between banks, so its probably all over the place with special lending facilities. I suppose you could say LIBOR is opposite of treasury bill rates as a rule of thumb.

Changes in interest rates always seem to place various financial interests on the treadmill eventually.

Jock, I agree with you but, I would rather be in emerging markets with less risk of nationalization.

Regarding price of oil & gasoline:

A very different explanation of how gas prices are set (instead of supply & demand) is provided by Lindsay Williams, a pastor who worked intimately with top executives of oil companies in Alaska. Other very out-of-the-box information/claims are made as well in his book and online video. I'd be interested in community thoughts. His book has an introduction validating his information by a former US senator. His video was one of the most watched videos on Google video prior to their changing their ranking options.

He contends prices are set by the producing companies, who have ultimate pricing power.

The book online, in chapters:
http://www.reformation.org/energy-non-crisis.html

The Google Video of his lecture: (I watched this quite some time back. I remember it being quite long till he gets to the most interesting information.

The Energy Non-Crisis
Lindsey Williams talks about his first hand knowledge of Alaskan oil reserves larger than any on earth. And he talks about how the oil companies and ...
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147

A few select quotes from the book:

http://www.reformation.org/energy-non-crisis-ch2.html

In going to the Pipeline, I had no intentions of being (or becoming) involved in political issues. Indeed, my whole motivation was to help the men spiritually. I totally believe in my work as a Baptist Minister, and here was a tremendous challenge. I have always been ready to see a challenge and to fight for what I believe. When I found that the idea of a Chaplain to the Pipeline was almost anathema to the Pipeline officials, it. made me, realize even more than ever before that this was a real mission field. I regarded those men on the Pipeline as sheep without a shepherd, and simply stated, my heart went out to them.
It was only after my eyes were opened at the time of the discussions with Senator Chance and Mr. X that I was led into a totally different understanding of a troublesome situation—which I realized must be faced and presented to the American people. Hence this book.
I submit that my credibility is established. I worked on the Pipeline for two and one-half years. I was not paid by either the oil company or any government agency for all of that time, and I believe that I am entitled to claim in sincerity that I had no bias and no particular pleading. I was simply put into an unusual position of seeing and hearing facts firsthand, bringing with it the responsibility to do my part in awakening the American people to the situation—as it reall
---------
http://www.reformation.org/energy-non-crisis-ch1.html
I became convinced of the fact that there is no energy crisis when Senator Hugh Chance visited me on the Pipeline. As well as being a former Senator of the State of Colorado, he is also an outstanding Christian gentleman. He came to the Pipeline at my invitation, to speak in the work camps for which I was re sponsible as Chaplain, on the northern sector of the Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline.
While I was there I arranged for him to have a tour of the Prudhoe Bay facility. Senator Chance was shown everything he wanted to see, and he was told everything he wanted to know. The Senator was given information by a number of highly-placed responsible executives with Atlantic Richfield, and these were cooperative with him at all times. He especially gained information from one particular official whom we shall call Mr. X, because of the obvious need to protect his anonymity.
After Senator Chance had talked at length with Mr. X, we came back to my dormitory room at Pump Station No. 1 and sat down. Senator Chance said to me, "Lindsey, I can hardly believe what I have seen and heard today."
I waited to see what it was that was so startling. Remember, as yet I had no inkling that there was, in fact, no true energy crisis.
Senator Chance was very serious. He was obviously disturbed. He looked up at me as he said, "Lindsey, I was in the Senate of the State of Colorado when the Federal briefers came to inform us as to why there is an energy crisis. Lindsey, what I have heard and seen today, compared with what I was told in the Senate of the State of Colorado, makes me realize that almost everything I was told by those Federal briefers was a downright lie!"
At that point Senator Chance asked if I could arrange for another interview with Mr. X on the following day. I did arrange for that interview, and the Senator and Mr. X sat in Mr. X's office. I was allowed to be present, as Senator Hugh Chance asked question after question after question.
Senator Chance's first question was, "Mr. X, how much crude oil is there under the North Slope of Alaska, in your estimation?"
Mr. X answered, "In my estimation, from the seismographic work and the drillings we have already done, I am convinced that there is as much oil under the North Slope of Alaska as there is in all of Saudi Arabia."
Senator Hugh Chance's next question was perhaps an obvious one. "Why isn't this oil being produced, if there is an oil crisis?"

----------------

If this information has been disproven, I would be happy to be informed. If it is not, it would be another example of how more exists under heaven and earth than we may have dreamt...

Happy weekend all!

Hi,

BOE to accept mortgage backed securities in exchange for UK and European bonds up to USD 100 Bn.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abYS23GVPJMY&refer=home

Are these people nuts?

aa- the first question i always have when reading the kind of "out-of-the-box information/claims" presented above is why the information/claims have not been validated by the mainstream press? most of us are old enough to know the human psyche is prone to conspiracy theories and urban legends that ultimately prove to be hoaxes. my guess is that mr. williams and senator chance may have been pulled into one by "mr. x." on the other hand, the mainstream press has done a good job of exposing even more unbelievable conspiracies (watergate, iran-contra) in my time, so i'm open to the possibility of a story here...

so the middle class is now defined as households earning $200,000 to $250,000 a year? you might be able to stretch to make a case for that in certain areas of the country, but it sounds like both obama and clinton are revealing a little too much about the company they keep:

http://tinyurl.com/44x86a

Head and shoulders in the GLD? Sure looks like one, I guess I'd have to agree.

http://members.cox.net/liquidcool/GLD42008.jpg

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

[Bill Cara note: If the Price of Gold does crater, please (everybody) do not believe it will stay down for long. Simply back up the truck. Gold will go much higher in the years to come, I do firmly believe. But be patient, and wait for the spike to the downside. ]

It would make sense that supply is controlled by producers. It could be there is plenty of oil, they just don't want to make the spigot bigger.

Would they rather sell us 2 gallons for $50 or 1 gallon for $100.

However, if there is so much oil, why are they letting it get so expensive? I remember reading the head of OPEC's comments back in the seventies, who was a western trained econonomist, that it was not a good idea to keep the price so high that it attracts investment in alternative energy. That is what is happening now. Either, they have plenty of oil and are constraining production because they believe there are no equivalent alternatives possible, or they are running out and can't produce enough and are getting while the getting is good.

Interview with Nouriel Roubini from last week,about Foreclosures and credit crisis.

http://tinyurl.com/4lb5g7

Click on Nouriel Roubini icon to the left.

or rather link to right of page.

Is anyone buying the USD now? Just thinking it might be a good investment if you're bearish on gold in the ST. Any good ETF suggestions for this?
TIA Adam

Bill,

Appreciate the comment, I'm long the dollar and gold. Short the euro and will cover over 1.60, but hold tight under 1.58. I'm also short the TLT, but covered 1/3 at the lower trendline on Friday awaiting a small bounce.

Frankly, the reason I stopped in is because I'm a little worried about you, I hope everything is going well...

The reverse head and shoulders was an attempt at humor. Something, I'm afraid I was born without, but give it a feeble attempt now and then.

A couple of more recent examples...

BHP Billiton LTD -

http://members.cox.net/liquidcool/BHP.jpg

Freeport McMoran -

http://members.cox.net/liquidcool/FCX.jpg

Back to the cave. Again, hope all is well.

Regards,

The CoinGuy

P.S. A for what it's worth..

http://members.cox.net/liquidcool/GLD41808.jpg

Please excuse the bravado, I was among friends...

Interesting...having read much on petro-dollars CK Liu and various articles on Central Banking, it makes me think getting off the gold standard and putting us on the oil standard made sense. Dollars are just pieces of paper, but gold is just a shiny rock. If you're in the middle of the desert, which would you rather have, an ounce of gold, or a gallon of water. Anyway, oil-now that makes the world go round.

Oh, Bill,

I'm all for doing what make's one happy, having said that, for all the wake's I've attended, I've never once heard someone say about the dearly departed, "He never worked enough."

ALOHA !!

"More"

Floyd Norris:

Americans are cutting back on purchases of things they do not have to have, sending retail sales down sharply at many types of stores.

Those cutbacks, which now seem to be worse than at any time since the 1990-91 recession, are helping to slow the economy and to spur calls in Washington for more fiscal stimulus even before the government starts to send out money to most taxpayers next month. ...

The Census Bureau reported a small increase in retail sales for March, with overall sales up 1.8 percent over the previous year. But much of that gain was caused by higher prices. Sales at gasoline stations soared almost 19 percent as prices climbed. In food and beverage stores, sales were up 4 percent from a year earlier.

But spending more money on food and gasoline leaves less for other things, and sales were down, even without adjusting for inflation, at department stores, clothing stores and furniture stores, as well as at auto dealers.

"If prices went up, people demanded not a stable purchasing power for the marks they had, but more marks to buy what they needed. More marks were printed, and more, and more."

-Adam Fergusson, When Money Dies
The Weimar Republic

posted by The Cunning Realist at Sunday, April 20, 2008

shanghai opens on 6% gap-up...

Bill,

Suggestion for your blog:

Sometimes I don't have the time (I have a full-time job!) to go through each and every posting on your blog but when I do I often get interested in a stock/option/industry/etc by what is shared by the posters here.

Here is a widget that visually shows the most popular words mentioned visually.

In fact, it is very cool to quickly gather which popular symbols are being chatted the most.

Clicking on the word/symbol would generate a list of postings that have the word/symbol in the post.

Here is an example:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/tickercloud.html

Here is where to get one if you are interested:
http://tinyurl.com/49kmoh

2nd

i am looking at BONT
50% short
divident 3%
Pe 13
flot 11m
what is your opinion
thanks

weak dollar and strong PMs so far tonite folks...

Bill- there never really is retirement, as we all continue to grow our entire lives in understanding (of self, family, 'strangers,' and beyond), and seek to pursue old/new interests. always fascinating to watch the walls of earlier experiences/memories crumble with advancing age/maturity (if we allow it) to open up new vistas/territories to explore. personally also believe that life is eternal, that our experiences and relationships here carry through after death, and that ultimately we're given an infinite amount of time to fully explore each and every nuance of any past experience (not looking to debate this with anyone ;). you obviously have the means to pursue whatever you want at this stage-> no apologies needed as far as i'm concerned for any changes in format, style, or expectations.

cheers

vinod- i don't know...what's the story behind the high-volume move last friday?

Search for ticker cloud web page and you get Bill's page as the first Google result... from 2006. That's innovation.

But 100-hour work-weeks can't be productive. Delegate or stagnate. :)

For GLD, I see head and shoulders (but looks like more of a middle finger chart)

http://tinyurl.com/2mcf52

Lots of possibilities for going back to the $68-$72 range eventually... but today's inflation-adjusted number would probably be sitting comfortably at $82 for awhile.

But what about tomorrow - up or down?

My guess is up. Flip a coin. I call tails.

http://tinyurl.com/5ht6of

The latest out of Europe below indicates that another handcuffed central bank, this time the Bank of England, will be bailing out select banks now too. These additional printing press operations will only serve to buy time and increase the likelihood and severity of global food riots.

http://tinyurl.com/4oltb7

adam- you could try UUP...

wavesmash- your comments re GLD work for me...i don't think anyone can call a price...fwiw, simply based on intuition, if i had to bet would say it hits maro's target and then some-> the "can't happen" scenario seems to have played out a lot recently...

Trading in Asia up.
http://tinyurl.com/3xr343

vinod- re FXP-> be careful...i just don't think now is the time to be betting against china...

No axe to grind - its just interesting

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSSP3132820080421

2nd

Yes no FXP or DUG oil may go higher according to all the news story
No SNM. There is lots of demand and economy is booming in china and India
I will seat out this earning week

2nd
Friday-option expiration day always has high volume

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/04/7-7-7-s.html

Cooking up your portfolio?