Hope everything's cool, Bill! Ok to take a breather, that's what weblogs are about. Post when necessary.

F6

"The March 2008 SEMI Book-to-Bill Report is scheduled for publication on April 17, 2008; 3:00 p.m. PDT (subject to change)."

Thank you Bill for all you do and share with us.

Good morning.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change to report at this time:

PG - Downgraded to Hold @ Deutsche Securities.

---------------------------------------------------

Enjoy your time off, Bill. Have a great day, everyone.

Bill,
Whatever the issue, my thoughts and wishes are with you for the desired outcome.

Guess whose on the bottom?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

Dear Bill,

Best wishes to you.

Chris

2nd, looks like an AH play or you'll have to wait until premkt tomm?

Based on the comments here and particularly from Bill, I thought the following quote from "The Warren Buffet Way" might be helpful to get a sense for where we might be:

Looking back , Graham identified 3 forces that he felt were responsible for the stock market crash.
First was the manipulation of stocks by the exchanges and investment firms. Everyday, brokers were told which stocks to move and what to say in order to generate excitement about them.
Second was the common practice of lending money for the purpose of buying stocks. Banks freely loaned money to speculators, who anxiously awaited the latest hot tip from Wall Street. Bank
lending for securities purchases rose from 1 billion in 1921 to 8.5 billion in 1929. The loans were back by the value of the stocks, so when the crash occurred, everything tumbled down.
The third force was the uncontrolled optimism that was driving it all.

The danger of 1929 was not that speculation tried to masquerade as investing but rather that investing fashioned itself into speculation.

Op-Ed NYT: Not much of a Watchdog

Your SEC at work

http://tinyurl.com/6qqma6

Yesterday someone asked why the dollar was showing unusual weakness (if that's possible).

If you haven't already discovered FT's John Authers, see his video from yesterday for an excellent explanation:

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-11dc-b971-0000779fd2ac.html

Short version: inflation in Europe is going to keep the CB's from cutting rates on pace with the Fed.

i guess so...in no rush to jump into any ultrashorts right now...

n2son as a follow-up to your post

From the Daily Pfennig: Besides the Eurozone, Norway, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand rates remain unchanged and in some cases MAY see additional hikes

Hi,

Just a line re PoG to say that I am convinced that the current price is actually a good selling opportunity before a next downswing starts.

This is just my opinion, please do not trade on this. DYODD.

Cheers!

From Kitco:

Hochschild plans to buy out Lakeshore Gold (LSG.TO)

FT

http://tinyurl.com/4hemsb

Anyone watching Hecla (HL)? I've traded in and out of this stock for awhile. Unfortunately, I've missed this recent run to all time highs.

If I were in I'd be tightening my stop here.

Also, remember that ESLR reports after the close today. Today SunPower reported good results, but open down over 4%. It's coming back a bit now, but still goes to show that nothing is a sure bet. That said, I'm going to hold my ESLR into earnings.

out DUG/SMN/FXP
very lttle gain
did not like price action

onlineaces

Where are we now in regards to the
"Hindenburg Omen " ?

Maromatics,

I am curious what makes you think the price of gold is ready to head down. When I look at the daily gold chart I see a strong close above the 50 day average, bullish cross on the MACD, RSI that turned up at 50 and is heading up and finally an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows). The chart looks bullish to me with more room to move to the upside. Thanks.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I suggest that we heed the advice of our good friend and exit these markets, especially margin, unless you are maintaining some small shorts.

I too have an uneasy feeling that "something" is in the air. Too much "irrational exuburance" to coin a phrase.

As a student of history, you should note that some of the greatest names in investment from an earlier era, namely such notables as Bernard Baruch, Joseph Kennedy; exited the markets around this time of the year in 1929, soon thereafter liquidity was removed, margin requirements went up, margin calls were issued and the rest is history! John Kenneth Gailbraith wrote a book based on the "Crash of 1929". If you care for a good read, the markets today are behaving in an eerily similar manner.

I think the FED may have one more small cut in store for us on the 30TH going into the summer, after which the mantra will switch from weak dollar to strong dollar to combat inflation in the second half of the year. Rates will be raised, likely timed when most people are on summer vacation for maximum havoc. (anyone remember last August?) When this happens, the markets will tank on an epic scale. CASH, GOLD and SHORT positions will win the day.

sidebar: I was in Europe on vacation last August, fortunately I make it a habit of being "out" when I know I cannot access the markets easily.

CAUTION !!

regards
chris

N2son,
You're right on with this being the most manipulated earnings season in recent memory. It's laughable how the street cheers over companies meeting the lowered estimates. And equally funny how tech companies are meeting earnings only because of the weaker dollar.

Now more than ever is time to pay heed to Bill's statement "If you're out of the room you're out of the deal."

Speaking about manipulation, how about MER barely down and having wrote down 30 Billion so far. How big is their balance sheet anyway? Have they written more down than they have shareholder equity? Does a write down stay on the balance sheet at 100% value? If so, Bill is right that many of these companies are completely bankrupt.

Speaking about credit tightening, back in JAN and FEB we were getting a few 0.0% credit card offers per week. We're still getting the offers but now the rates are from 7.99% to 21%. It makes me think the next shoe to drop will be people carrying credit card balances they can't pay off and will have to default on. If this is true look for V and MA to sink as well as people are cut off from using credit cards.

It's amazing how these banks can take all this money from us and then tighten standards to us with our own money.

Rob.

[Bill Cara note: A write-down keeps the assets on the books, but provides for possible losses, with the amount of the provision able to be applied to current tax liability. In essence, the write-down is a tax shelter, not an admission the bank lost the value of the asset. That is the crux of the problem.

The undeniable reality is that most foreclosed properties have zero hope of returning any economic value. Many are being torn down and others are deteriorating so quickly that there would need to be huge investment in them to restore them to a position where they could be sold at a substantial loss.

Knowledgeable analysts are saying that the amount of equity in the average home in the US is about 20% and that the average loss in value over the next two years in housing prices will be about 20%, so that many more foreclosures are expected.

If people recall, I wrote that in 1990, my parent's next door neighbor came knocking on their door offering a deal on their house, which was valued at $1.1 million, with a $950,000 mortgage. The neighbor suggested my parents could buy it for the mortgage. They declined. Then the neighbor returned and said it could be bought for $850,000. Then $550,000. My Dad asked me what I thought and I suggested he offer not a dime over $300,000 all cash, no sign back. The bank accepted that day.

In relative terms, where the housing crisis is today is where the neighbor is still trying to recognize some equity above the value of the mortgage. My advice to anybody with cash is just to wait until the banker takes possession and is so desperate these 'opportunities' can be purchased with stink bids of the kind my parents made.

Here is another "Lesson". My mother's brother, Alfred Neely, was written up in Who's Who in America in the mid-30's. A young farmer from central Ontario who ventured into the financial markets in the US and made a fortune, and then was in the process of losing it. He then split with his wife who took control of whole city blocks in downtown Toronto while he took the securities. The land under those houses became hugely valuable in the 40's while my Uncle's securities became worthless. He died in the early 1950's a pauper in the care of my parents. He gave me a copy of the Who's Who and in his final years he took me around to meet his old (still wealthy) friends who felt sorry for him. I was about 12 at the time. That experience, as much as any, probably set me on the course I followed in my life.

If anybody finds a copy of that Who's Who entry, which long ago was lost from my possession, I would be grateful. I'd like to publish it in the blog.]

Being relatively new to trading and investing I am simply amazed at what is happening in the financial/government world.

Awareness can be both a virtue and a curse?

A huge thank you to Mr. Cara for so bluntly stating what he believes to be the truth.

vinod- smart move...think investors are about to get trapped-> leaning towards a bear trap, but who knows...staying out for now...

CALM- vinod, do you have a target for re-entering?

im torn,
the technicals for the XGD look good,
but the weak volume is keeping from pulling the trigger.

id like to see gold break through $960 with the shares following on strong volume before jumping back in.

the action in gold seems to have jumped following oil the past few days, but id like to see some follow through.

holding....holding....

Preaching to the converted,I know,
http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/wall-street/2008/03/17/Banks-Shirk-Subprime-Responsibility

Input on the following 2 questions would be most welcome:

Currently I am positioned in shorts [ETF’s]. All are currently underwater.

#1 Since this market is expected to drop, would it not be wise to stay put and sell once the drop occurs, or should everything be sold and the money taken completely out of the market?

#2 If you pull the money out of the market and you are not a “Qualified Eligible Participants” to invest in Mr Cara’s Forex or Metal fund then what do you do with it?

To those who answer, thank you in advance!

You have to wonder whether it was "sell in March and go away."

QT - Here's what Jesse L. says:

"If that [his initial position] does not show him a profit he must not increase his holdings because he has obviously begun wrong; he is wrong temporarily and there is no profit in being wrong at any time."

URZ has worked great. EXK has not.

out of sigm @ 17.81

QT: My own take is to hold the ultras and shorts since our thesis is the market corrects.
Then safety becomes an issue with your cash, re: Bill's take, so I am selling on the way down to get to cash. Essentially the same as selling into strength.

I'm sure others will have suggestions but foreign currency isn't difficult to purchase at the banks or in forex accts.
You likely know where to get physical gold/silver.

anyone else besides me holding sgp preferred? Bill's comments are scaring the poop out of me. Maybe all cash is not a bad place to be?

Some excerpts from today's Colin Twiggs report.

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 2 percent higher, rallying on news that JPMorgan had exceeded earnings expectations. The response is strange as the New York-based bank reported earnings of $2.37 billion — a fall of 50 percent. And the situation would have been far worse but for a $1.5 billion pretax gain from the sale of its share in the recently listed Visa Inc. We need to remind ourselves that:
this is a bear market;there is strong overhead resistance at the former primary support level of 12800; sharp rises are typical of a bear market rally.
while in a bull market retracements are sharp and prices tend to advance at a more measured pace.

2.The Fear Index
The spread between the fed funds rate and 3-month T-bills reversed back into the danger area above 1 percent. The shift from long-term to short-term maturities contributed to falling T-bill yields, but the widening spread demonstrates that investors continue to shun inter-bank and commercial paper markets, preferring the safety of treasuries.

The Fed faces the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, with banks forced to raise new capital, in order to maintain their capital ratios, at the worst possible time. The cost of capital is at its highest in a bear market. Banks have also borrowed record amounts from the Fed. Discount window borrowings now exceed total bank reserves — with a further $100 billion advanced through the Term Auction Facility. Available data goes back to 1960 and the previously recorded high for borrowed reserves was 32% (of total reserves) in 1984.

Pronouncements that the crisis is close to an end appear premature.

3. Three-month treasury bill yields are headed for another test of 0.50%, warning of further instability in financial markets
-Asset-backed and financial commercial paper yields are noticably higher than the fed funds rate — a risk premium not normally seen in stable conditions

2nd

My friend Here told me to buy CALM/FTO/OXPS/BSX
that was last week.they were opning up new position on them
beside that I do not know

Today's Frank Barbera:
Over the next few days, we would expect some additional upside follow thru for the XAU, which gave a short term upside projection back up to the vicinity of the March 14th highs in the 202 to 206 zone. For all intents and purposes, it is logical to expect the market to run into some sizeable resistance at that level and possibly end up consolidating between 198 and 206 for a reasonable period of time, perhaps two to three weeks. It is also quite possible that we will see a second corrective downside reaction following a

test of the mid-March highs, which could easily knock the XAU back down toward the low 180 area in late May or early June giving us yet another chance to buy. In summary, we may still have a number of weeks of overall ‘giant sideways’ corrective action ahead of us, notwithstanding these very nice trading rallies

brought some AMZN 75 put at 8.15

I should sat JUly 75

Look at them running up COF today. Early whispers of earnings, traders trying to lure us into going long and making shorts panic. Take your pick in this market. Look at MER, pretty much bankrupt and up.

I'm holding my Sept COF puts through earnings for sure.

I also have my July DUG calls underwater for now but I'm thinking they have to support the dollar soon, at least temporarily, unless the multinational Corporations need the dollar to continue to weaken as that's how many of them get their earnings increases.

Wasn't there a time not so long ago when share dilution and currency gains were considered poor earnings? Are the big traders that desperate to paint a good tape?

It seems so for now.

Rob.

Gold Bull from an Australian Site Compare shares
http://www.compareshares.com.au/zeal41.php

Jesse SLC,

To sum up my view Re PoG, lets just say that I agree with Bill in full when he comments on today's report that this is not the best of times to be log gold.

Cheers,

Part of me is also thinking this could all be to squeeze the put holders into expiration and then next week we return to a little more reality.

Look at how many puts went this month on the banks and brokerages.

Rob.

Vinod

Nice to see someone else who thinks AMZN is extremely overvalued (I also have puts). But I’ll tell you this stock has a mind of its own and doesn’t follow any real pattern. The deep institutional ownership has prevented the shorts from taking over, but if earnings miss or guidance is lowered they will be forced to sell, especially Legg Mason (I think they own 54 mil. shares) – and they are currently in the spotlight for making poor investment decisions.

It sure is a hurtin' wailin' wall of worry out there.

If everything is so good in bankland then why has LIBOR jumped from 2.71 this week to 2.8 for 1 month and 2.82 for 3 month???

Ask yourself that Jamie Dimon?? Do you still think it's 80% over or are you just 80% full of crap??

With all thins info I'm looking at some big puts on the DOW and S&P. Let's hope for a rally tomorrow up to 12700 and I'll be jumping in huge.

Rob.

Rob.

epmd
UPS/FED EX is telling us that shipping volume is down
Plus AMZN cannot make money and ship for free with high gas price
Also lots of people are hearting because of high gas and food price
And not going to shop a lot at AMZN
This baby is going down

My wife is in the process of going to cash in her
RSP account. (We are both Canadian)
There are several "Cash" accounts to choose from.
(TD Bank is where it's at) I figure TD is best positioned to ride out the coming storm. Sorry, rambling here. So the options are.....
Premium Money Market, Canadian T Bills and plain cash. We are thinking the Canadian T bill option.
So, My question to the group is if Canadian T Bills
are as safe as cash.

Interesting symetrical triangle on FXF (Swiss Franc ETF)chart waiting for a macd cross up. If it crosses I think FXF resolves to the upside.
Thoughts?

Vinod

That's what I'm betting on - although I think Q1 sales will probably be in line because of foreign exchange benefits - profits should fall short or at least outlook reduced, which will bring down the stock. They will try hard to spin results though.

BTW, the reason I was looking at FXF was to check the yen and various currencies.
With the long bond breaking the upward trendline (IEF anyway) I was curious as to why we were down to sideways yet treasuries were weak, gold weak, other currencies weak. You would think weak market, flight to safety, but treasuries and other instruments considered "safe" aren't indicating this..... That's why cash is king right now.

Vinod:
Re: Online sales

I heard an opposit theory on the radio while driving to work yesterady. It said as gas prices go up, online sales are likey to go up as more and more people are going to stay home and shop online.

In Sinking Alpha yesterday:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/72466-why-the-inflation-deflation-debate-doesn-t-matter

As of yesterday I'm 99.75% cash. Just ordered a Jawbone bluetooth (for my wife)from Amazon and they are shipping via the Post Office and not using UPS which is very unusual. I read somewhere yesterday that UPS is on the hook for 6.6 million with Sharper Image declaring bankruptcy.

I'm at page 200 on Bill's book.

The desperate push to go positive is on in the Bizarro Market. We are 95% cash with the rest making up my short positions. It is truly amazing how they try to lure people in by rallying in the face of worsening news. They're trying to make us think it's all over and we better get in before we miss it. It's their market so they can run it any way they want right?

I still think we plunge after expiration and then if enough people buy puts and go short again, then they'll run it up all month after that to try and trap everyone again. That has to be what's happening now. They don't scare me!!!

Rob.

All cash except for EUROX, eastern European fund. Even sold GE, basis of one USD! Got 37.05 a few weeks back. Waiting to see.

I knew this was coming. Just a matter of time.

"Thieves drill gas tanks to steal fuel
High pump prices prompt thefts."

http://tinyurl.com/4hdblu

T. Boone Pickens forcasts oil near $125.00 US
I read a book authored by this guy.
You can take what he says and put it in the bank.
Opps, On second thought, A bank might be a bad idea.
(Grin)

But, I would trust his judgement, he's been around the oil patch a long time.

wasn't pickens short oil last month?

edging back into DZZ/HGD.TO..keeping it small...

re-entering SNDK at 25.82...

jogyp- SIGM is hitting your 18 target-> taking profits?

anyone buying the pullback in ESLR prior to earnings?

2nd.. I think your right.
Pickens was short on oil.

2nd - missed the 18. Planning to take some SIGM off today( I have too much of it from higher prices).
I think there will a short covering rally tomorrow.

soros' outlook right now similar to cara's:

http://tinyurl.com/647258

excerpt:

"Soros said he believed that current financial market turmoil was destroying capital and if investors managed to hang on to capital they would be "doing pretty well."

"Either you have to be very very cautious or you have to be very nimble. One or the other," he said.

"The Hungarian-born financier is promoting a new book, "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis and What It Means," where he describes the recent financial "superbubble" as the end of an era of cheap finance and loose regulation."

The human body never ceases to amaze and humble me. It is quite resilient. It can be kept "alive" almost indefinitely with a respirator and intravenous feeding. Long after clinical brain death, all the various organ systems continue to chug along unwittingly, without regard for the loss of their neuronal master circuitry.

Clinicians regularly exploit this fact, sustaining organ function long enough to schedule organ placement for needy recipients. ONly after the beauracratic an logistical technicalities are addressed, will the donor be wheeled into the operating room. Even during the explantation procedure, the body is treated as would that of "living" patient... Organ systems are carefully and tenderly dissasembled in a very specific order of hierarchy. As these systems are removed, blood vessels are tied off to prevent blood loss and subsequent shock to remaining organs. THe very last organ removed is the heart.... it keeps pumping until iced down in the chest cavity creating the momment of "death."

The current financial crisis is analougous in many respects to a "brain-dead" organ donor on life support. Behind the scenes, as our politicians and financiers go about the beaurcratic and technical business of making binding and life changing decisions, we are calmly encouraged to continue as if nothing were amiss. In my opinion, they are quite aware of the irretreivable state of affairs and are merely keeping the system running for specific and purposeful eventualites. I suspect it includes a radical dismantling of our way of life, with salvageable value being doled out to pre-ordained recipient organizations...DHS, UN, NSA, etc. I anticipate that ultimately, our national sovereignty will be "iced-down" and our populous will be forced into a reality that is radically different from the one we currently know.

I guess what I am trying to say is the fact that they are sustaining this farce does not concern me as much as why they might be sustaining this farce.

For those of us not blissfully ignorant, the process is uncomfortable, fascinating, and perhaps frightening to watch....yet we cannot take our eyes away.

Vigilance is tiring. Enjoy your rest Bill. It will all be here when you return refreshed.

ALOHA !!

This bulletin was flashed on IB today ...

To CBOE traders:
Thu Apr 17 15:00:47 2008 EST

CBOE pit traded products:NDX, OIX, RMN, RUI, RUT, SML, SPX, TNX, TXX, TYX, VIX, XEO, XSP, are currently unavailable for trading.

Is it IB or is it the CBOE?

ESLR: Stepped off at $11.18

Holding DZZ,FXP,SKF,RRPIX, short a few GE.

Seamus: Have been exiting CHSCP/lowering exposure. Taking my divs and waiting for better entry.

Re: CBOE

Too many imaginary numbers floating around, I expect.

World Crisis Not Dissimilar to 1929-1932

by Bill Cara

http://tinyurl.com/3svnvc

DJ-30 recoiling from sma100 into the close, tuff resistance here, most likely more consolidation of Wednesdays big up move tomorrow ...

Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

GOOG up 40+ afterhours at 497!!!

2nd

Sell 300 Shares of LDK
Order Number:D17CDVFZ Details Filled at $34.25
Sell 700 Shares of ESLR
Order Number:D17CDWGN Details Filled at $11.0236
Buy 500 Shares of ESLR
Order Number:D17CSXDC Details Filled at $10.75
Buy 50 Shares of SKF
Order Number:D17CTKDK Details Filled at $105.00

GOOG up 50 after hours...

ESLR REPORTS Q1 -$0.01 V -$0.07E, R $18.3 V $21.8ME
- Guides Q2 EPS -0.10 v -$0.09e, R $21.5-22.5M v $21.8Me
doesn't look good...

507-> nice call for a squeeze, jogyp

selling SNDK after-hours...

Hi,

Re PoG: summary of reasons to stay out for the time being:

A) USD / EUR

USD is challenging 1.6. The USD short side is qute crowded. An intervention can happen at any time, thereby generating serious short covering, thereby pumping up the USD for some time.

B) Financial sector problems: the next shoe can drop at any time. Gold will also be sold.

C) Option expiration next week.

D) TA

8 hour chart: CCI 20 showing divergence, falling fast. Slow Stockhastics showing bearish cross in overbought territory.

Daily chart: 20 DMA still below 50 DMA. Stockhastics showing bearish divergence in overbought territory.

Weekly chart:slow stockhastics still not showing buy signal.

Fibs: if one counts the entire upswing from Aug 16th, then 61,8% correction will be complete at around 770 more or less.

That level is also where the 50 wk MA is currently at, and is also a strong chart support zone.

So, I am letting the price come to me, as I am convinced that in a few weeks I will have my buy opportunity around 770 / 800.

Will I short? No because this is a bull market, and will remain as such.

Please do not trade based on this. This is just my opinion. DYODD.

Cheers!

maromatics

Thanks for the post on gold!

Maromatics,

I'm sure that you have heard or are aware of something called "Chaos Theory." Though it applies more to physics and weather patterns, it touches on the financial aspects of our world. In a nutschell it says that a very small "seemingly insignificant" change can produce enormously greater and unpredictible events. The key here is "Unpredictible." Don't get me wrong--I feel there is great value in your stochastic lay-out. It's logical, well laid out, and it adheres to tried principles. Will it come true? I don't Know that--I will not risk prophesy; However, I am willing to state here and now that you WILL NOT be able to get an entry point in POG of 770$ this year, or next year, or next. Just my opinion!
Respectfully yours

Gus.

Vadym, learn something their story before making such irresponsible comments. The conference call is ongoing now, so you can start your research there.

Aurelian shares down 14% as Pres. Correa of Ecuador announces "Some concessions where there has been investment and exploration and that were about to enter the exploitation phase will be suspended for 180 days until there is a new legal framework," Correa told foreign reporters in Quito. "And we will write new (mining) contracts based on that legal framework."

http://tinyurl.com/43dbej

Politics is unpredictible ! By way of background, Ecuador has had very little mining, but major environmental and public health damage in the eastern Amazon region from Texaco and successor international oil companies. So, extractive industries are sensitive issues there.

MtnGntx,

Gruesome yet interesting analogy. One thing to watch though... capital markets have many organs... and they grow back all the time as a "sucker is born every minute."

I'm reading a book on Ponzi and the "Securities Exchange Company". The more things change, the more things haven't changed much since the 1920s. All it takes is some good promotion, like Jack Welch on CNBC today.

Is GLD showing a head-and-shoulders pattern with next support around $70?

http://tinyurl.com/5pk58y

Re: Saskaboom

If find it absolutely frustrating that BNN is doing a special on the resources boom in Saskatchewan, and hasn't gotten to GBN.V, which has the largest land position in the gold sector in that province.

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?sid=205&vid=46810

Note: Made money on JNN and met with Mr. Kusimurski during PDAC 2004. JNN.V sold its interest in the Greywacke gold deposit to GBN.V.

They also seem to prefer 'rock star' gold stories like Rubicon. It takes $40m. to sink an exploration shaft to the 1000m. level, where the gold is. Goldcorp. also recently found another super bonanza grade far above the 'average' grade of Rubicon, so its unlikely they'll be looking at Rubicon for a buyout.

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?sid=205&vid=46506

>:[ <= yes, very peeved aaiiee! Lapdog press!!!

Finger Lakes:

Seems the banks have been caught low balling libor and the British Bankers' Association issued a warning yesterday stating it will expel banks that it believes are manipulating the LIBOR:

http://tinyurl.com/3qspdy

QID- picking up a little after-hours...

picking up a little more ESLR after-hours...

ESLR- isn't this one of the few companies expanding operations and hiring new employees right now? i think projecting losses is natural at this stage of the game...may finally catch the bid it deserves after the weak hands sleep on it, and cooler minds prevail...

Maromatics,

I believe options expiry is tomorrow, not next week as your missive implies. Sorry to point it out, likely a mis-type but you are so well regarded here that I wouldn't want any new folks to misunderstand.

KAIMU,

could you provide some discourse regarding CBOE not allowing VIX, etc to trade today? Sounds fishy to me.

CAUTION here people, I smell a rat, not you Kaimu, just your garden variety FEDRAT !!

best regards
chris

trader C, it would come as a sense of relief if it was discovered that futures markets based on indeces and not equity were suddenly insolvent because of a huge wrong way bet on imaginary numbers.

SEMI march book-to-bill 0.89...down from february's 0.93, but even with january's 0.89 and up from december's 0.85...too close to call as to whether it's good news or bad...(definitely not great news, but also definitely not terrible news)->INTC flat after-hours...

The abcp crisis in Canadian terms is playing itself out, with some investors are reserving and using the right to sue.

In a smallish article on the matter on page 7 or even 8 of the financial section of the Mtl. Gazette recently, the final sentence was, paraphrased "..there is no disincentive for this situation to repeat itself".

Just how do I contact Geoff of Cara Trading Advisors?

George

2nd: Added ESLR AH @ 10.20. COULD have had a *really nice* 9 handle deal but Scottrade puked out AH, had to call the office. By the time I got through it was 10.20. There needs to be a line to kick Roger Rhiney in the nuts. They F'ed me up this AM too with FXP where I could have exited with a decent profit and re-entered at the close. Arrrggg! ST cost me about $1000 in lost opportunities due to their broken system today.

Added SKF with Vinod (same price) at the close and again at 103.70 AH and also a bit more FXP.

IMPORTANT FT article regarding last weeks discourse on ETF's and counter-party risk.

Traders here need to know that the banks are worried!!!

http://tinyurl.com/52fz9f

regards
chris

Thanks 2nd, I think we get a chance to sell tech/add short tech positions tomorrow on possible GOOG squeeze.

I didn't think the ESLR results were too bad.

wavesmash,

Of course, you are correct.. There has always been a market since the dawn of mankind... people will continue to trade what they have for what they want regardless of what or who conspires to control the venue. Nothing new today, but scale.

George, Geoff is go34 and he will likely read your post here.

craig/vinod- re ESLR:

i don't pretend to know anything about solar, so just going with common sense in holding/adding here-> it's a growing company in a business that other companies (AMAT) are scrambling to get into, right...i see little effect on the company with a prolonged recession-> in fact, if i had family/friends in the area worried about their jobs, i would send them to ESLR for applications...this sector is really just getting started-> how many homes in your area currently use any solar power?...honestly think the stock takes off from here...

Re: "Vadym, learn something their story before making such irresponsible comments. The conference call is ongoing now, so you can start your research there."

number2son,

not sure what you are referring to here about 'irresponsible comments'. Could you please explain?
Thanks.

Stu

Re: Counterparties

I believe what Bill has been trying to point out is to minimize exposure to counterparty risk.

We have no way of knowing if the broker that we deal with allows off balance sheet credit derivatives and secondary lien type financing that may affect the equity value of trades.

2nd

I talk to people who recommended ESLR to me
They told me it was for long term (over Year)
And in short term it may move with market may go down.
But will be more than double in long termbe

i am also confuse with tech earning
i expected to be bad but they are anything but bad

financial earning are bad but stock moving higher

kp84, I reacted to what was probably a quick take on ESLR's results. ESLR is guiding toward a loss next Q (they had already given similar guidance). The loss is attributable to start up costs for their new manufacturing facility.

The shorts have been all over this stock, so I may have read more into that comment than was there.

April 17, 2008, 6:48 pm
ComScore Shares Whacked; The Paid Click Controversy
Posted by Eric Savitz
The one obvious victim of Google’s (GOOG) better-than-expected Q1 results is ComScore (SCOR): after hours, stock is down $1.98, or 8.4%, to $21.60.

Here’s the issue. As recently as yesterday, ComScore had reported that Google’s domestic search paid clicks were up just 1.8% in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis. Then this afternoon, Google reported a 20% rise in year-over-year paid clicks. The market’s quick conclusion: ComScore screwed up.

But that may not be an accurate conclusion. ComScore actually measures only a slice of paid clicks: it looks only at domestic Google search ads - it does not include AdSense, the company’s offering for non-Google sites, and it does not include non-U.S. business, which as the company noted today now accounts for just over half of total revenue. Google does not break out the specific slice that ComScore measures. So ComScore might be dead on, but there isn’t any way to know.

You can draw a variety of conclusions from this mess. One, as some analysts have in fact pointed out, you need to be careful how you use the ComScore data, as has now been made obvious. Two, both the Street and the press - me included - did not do a very good job of explaining exactly what ComScore was measuring. Three, ComScore never did a very good job explaining to people what it was measuring; it tried to explain the slowdown, and still never fully explained its approach. And four, Google’s refusal to provide any earnings guidance leaves the Street constantly trying to fill the vacuum with whatever third party data might become available. Plenty of blame to go around.

from barron

Google’s EPS Beat Aided By Lower-Than-Expected Taxes
Posted by Eric Savitz
While the early read from the Street on Google’s (GOOG) Q1 results is largely positive, it is worth noting that the better-than-expected results came in part from a lower tax rate than most analysts had expected.

Credit Suisse’s Heath Terry calculates that a lower tax rate lifted EPS by 23 cents; the company reported $4.84, 32 cents above the consensus view of $4.52. Goldman’s James Mitchell likewise notes that EPS was higher than expected “due primarily” to a tax rate of 23% versus an expected 26%.

On the other hand, the Street seems generally pleased that paid clicks were up 20% versus last year, which while less than the 30% growth in Q4 nonetheless is a lot better than the 1.8% suggested by the most recent ComScore data.

In after hours trading, GOOG is now up $76.96, or 17.1%, at $526.50

vinod- this market will likely go down hard at some point, but it's going up right now...was it g034 that said it's a double-bottom until it isn't...in the meantime, keep trading around your positions...there is nothing wrong with changing your mind about a position every other week, every other day, or every other hour->as long as you're making more right moves than wrong moves, no one can tell you you're doing the wrong thing at any particular point in time-> someone may trade against you for a profit and exit, only for you to profit twice as much an hour later with no change in your position-> you've both won...

number2son,

Thanks.

As for the stock, I'm a follower and have already been in and out once - long for a profit.
I'm hesitant to jump in again, only because I'm at my self imposed limit of long positions.

Good trading to you and to all in the community.

Stu

in other words, listen to yourself and tune out the noise...

so GOOG's up 17% after hours...how many weak hands got taken out at 446 earlier in the day? who's to say tomorrow AMZN won't be down 17%, or ESLR up 17%...no one can predict any of this, but staking your position on weakness and/or negativity, and you increase your odds of winning...

make that staking your position on weakness increases your odds...

craig- i think you're right...speaking of changing one's mind, i'm taking off the QID i put on an hour ago-> really don't know how far a squeeze might go, i think we get a better take tomorrow morning...

ALOHA !!

vinod posted ... "Plus AMZN cannot make money and ship for free with high gas price"

Where do you get the idea that Amazon hands out free shipping? I am a partner at OVERSTOCK.COM and they make us include shipping in all our prices. I am 100% sure if Amazon advertises free shipping that their partners have shipping already built into the cost of the product. FREE SHIPPING IS A HOAX!

OVERSTOCK advertises $1USD shipping. Well, technically that's what THEY charge but as a partner I charge $20USD to ship FedEx boxes, but you'll never see that $20 shipping fee advertised anywhere on OVERSTOCK.COM! Its a game they play with the consumers! Joe Consumer ... "WOW, I'm going to buy all my stuff at OVERSTOCK because they only charge $1 shipping anywhere in the USA ... YIPEEEE!" HA !!! OH PLEASE-E-E-E!!

C'mon ... do US Consumers really believe anything is FREE? If so, then its long overdue for a trip to "CLUES-R-US"!

vinod ... nothing is free! Don't be shorting AMZN if you think the gas cost for shipping will destroy their profit margins. High jet fuel "surcharges" will destroy AMZN'z "partner's" profit margins first(AMZN has no direct exposure to shipping costs)and then work its way to AMZN, but when? When the AMZN partners fail to perform. AMZN is just a centralized retail incubator whose really just a middleman with a markup.

I believe EBAY will out perform the likes of AMZN and OSTK, although I am reading a lot of commentators who disagree right now and say EBAY will underperform. US Consumers are already turning into net retail sellers not buyers! More sellers favors EBAY, an online flea market that you don't have to drive to!

ALOHA !!

Ground Report ... Our box manufacturer, Weyerhauser was bought out by International Paper, at least here in Hawaii! Without boxes I cannot ship product and right now International paper isn't commiting to staying in the Hawaii market. I am on "wait-n-see" until May 19th!!

Start thinking in terms of the supply chain weakness. It isn't just GAS prices any more. What would happen if box supplies collapsed? Well, I am here to say that box prices like all other components have skyrocketed. Plastic flower sleeves were $0.07USD each now they are $0.11USD each, close to a 60% annual increase!

It is a very difficult time to be in business, especially a "small business" who has no political clout and will never see a US Taxpayer bailout even if my "P&L" is better than Bear Stearns! Why do we always bailout failures? Our kids will be asking us some tough questions in the years ahead when they inheret America. I doubt we will be able to answer with any honor or pride. What's the answer? We were too busy watching American Idol?

"Vadym, learn something their story before making such irresponsible comments. The conference call is ongoing now, so you can start your research there."

Sorry... what was that about?

At the moment of my post stock was down more than $1.5. That doesn't look good now, does it? How is it "irresponsible" to note that its action doesn't look good? And what does "research" have to do with it?

I realize that emotions can run high during stron stock reaction, especially one against your position... but let's keep it civil please.

craig- maybe you make the switch to IB you thought about last year...fwiw, i had a couple of instances with fidelity where market orders during highly volatile sessions were (finally) filled an hour or two later at very disadvantageous prices-> i complained, they looked into it, and in both cases they adjusted the prices in my favor! now that's integrity...

ALOHA !!

Decentralizing government needs to happen ... We need to remove the power from Washington DC and return it to the communities that generate the tax revenues. Let the lobbyist lobby us for a change and not the guys in DC with the hookers!

A different take on the Bear Stearns disaster. Carte Blanche!

READ ON:
April 7, 2008 Issue
Copyright © 2008 The American Conservative

Papering Over the Problem

Killing the dollar to save Bear Stearns

by Wilson Burman

As the news broke on March 14 that the Federal Reserve would backstop the rescue of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase, it’s unlikely that many of the drivers paying record-high prices at the gas stations off the West Side Highway thought to glance toward midtown, where two sleek towers housed the beneficiaries of the Fed’s largesse. But those unhappy drivers, along with every other taxpayer and consumer in the U.S., had just become partners in a deal that offers considerably greater risk than reward.

Headlines notwithstanding, this was not a “bailout” in the most widely understood sense of the word. Bear Stearns lasted barely a full trading day between the Fed’s action and the announcement of the acquisition by JPMorgan at $2 (later raised to $10) a share. Essentially it was a government intervention. To keep Bear Stearns temporarily afloat, the Federal Reserve extended credit through JPMorgan and agreed to bear the risk of loss on Bear’s collateral to the tune of $29 billion. The move stirred memories of Long Term Capital, the 1998 hedge-fund bailout that the Fed organized but did not fund, or the Resolution Trust Corporation, the government’s massive publicly financed response to the Savings and Loan crisis. On the continuum of expediency, the Bear Stearns episode falls somewhere between the two.(more)

*** Wilson Burman is the pen name for the New York City investment professional who writes The Cunning Realist blog. ***

Link: http://tinyurl.com/5dkv3o

He correctly points out that this isn't about "speculators" its about the old thing where too much money is chasing too few goods and services! I like how he brings the public into the discussion towards the end ... Clueless until the end! Only one guy hit the nail on the head ... Remember the kids game called "CLUE"? It was ... "Greenspan in the US Treasury with the printing press!" That's who murdered the US Peso and the US Taxpayer at the same time! Read the part about the Vietnam War and LBJ and NIXON ...

This is why I own gold and silver and oil and the companies that make it! Everything else will be "DOTCOMS"! I believe even at this blog we give bankers and the fiat system they own the benefit of the doubt way too much!

shanghai is at 3150 in the early minutes, which is down 48.6% from the high of 6124 last fall...somehow this doesn't seem to be the time to be shorting china...

http://tinyurl.com/5r6l23

Nouriel Roubini | Apr 15, 2008

"The Financial Times has now published a video interview (taped earlier this month in Italy) where Jim O'Neill (head of global macro research at Goldman Sachs) and myself discussed the US and global economic outlook."

craig- we're only 180 pts from 'resistance' at 12800...C/CAT/HON all report before the open (5/5/530 PDT)-> if all 3 beat then it's conceivable we gap up to 12800, sink the 'puts,' and see 13000 sooner rather than later...opposite scenario applies also, of course...plenty of pre-market excitement either way...

2nd: FXP, You mean long term right? :>)
I have an exit plan....just in case.

Exit when:
FXI breaks 52 wk high (152+) or S&P/DJIA break above key resistance decisively.

My bet is Mr. Market needs viagra at 12,800 and it doesn't work. I think we have another 200 pts to get shorter.

shanghai now at 3117-> personally, i'd be buying...

craig- you will have 15 minutes-> plenty of time to make coffee and get out (or in, as the case may be) LOL...

if it gaps up to open > 12800, then the squeeze is on-> i would bet >50% of shorts have the same game plan = exit if it breaks 12800...C/CAT/HON/GOOG have the potential make that happen...not saying it will, but a good game plan will take care of it...

2nd: LOL! I see we're on the same page again.....

I don't see how C beats, even Dick Bove is saying it disappoints (I've been adding SKF).
CAT disappointed last time as I recall and I have no clue this time, although financing heavy equipment has got to be interesting and for farm equipment they have plenty of competition. HON is diversified but also tied to BA...which has been issuing delays on the 777. I'm also thinking of the GE lead. 5 PDT you say?
No problemo unless ST craps out on me again.

To argue against myself the Shanghai is approaching the 3000 target and is on the down trend channel line. Could bounce off, but that would take until Monday if we took off.
So the ETF is what will move, not necessarily Shanghai. Unless it rocks today....

However, I think it needs the U.S. markets to cooperate at this point. I then get back to CT's dance calling....
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed more than 2 percent higher, rallying on news that JPMorgan had exceeded earnings expectations. The response is strange as the New York-based bank reported earnings of $2.37 billion — a fall of 50 percent. And the situation would have been far worse but for a $1.5 billion pretax gain from the sale of its share in the recently listed Visa Inc. (Associated Press). We need to remind ourselves that:

This is a bear market;
*there is strong overhead resistance at the former primary support level of 12800*;
sharp rises are typical of a bear market rally — while in a bull market retracements are sharp and prices tend to advance at a more measured pace."

I am now setup with TradeStation and I have real time access to sort percentage gain/loss on sectors that I want to view. Dow Jones has 106 subsectors that I can sort in the TradeStation Radar screen window. I have searched the net trying to find what stocks comprise each sector but there is no news. I assume that there are individual stocks in a sector like an ETF or is that not the case? Where could I find this info?

Stktrader: Top of this page, categories, GICS.

I would use it on the Cara 100's.

boy it sure feels like the quiet before the storm for some reason...

Trader C,

Thank you for the correction, which is correct.

It was not a typo from my part, as for some reason I was convinced that option expiration was next week. Therefore I would remove it from my "reasons list", but keep all the other reasons... I really am expecting PoG to pullback at any moment ( but then again I have been wrong so may times that this may be another one of those....LOL!)

:-)

For any interested, here is the options expiration calendar:

http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2008.pdf

GR Gold,

Thank you for your input.

Let's see...

Cheers mates!

stktrader

Here's an Adobe re: general industry structure sliced and diced. http://tinyurl.com/27tcbk

Here's the link to what you probably want. Dow Jones Indexes - Sector Components and their weights. The reports you run can be viewed in Excel table format.

http://tinyurl.com/5copn7

stktrader, Craig

ICB Industry Classification Benchmark: http://tinyurl.com/5nsaty

Stocks in each sector, sector sorting for free ;-) : http://tinyurl.com/2fkmz4

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/04/cara100-china-water.html

CARA, CHINA, WATER. CHARTS. Stan Bush.

maromatics,

about 4am gold took a small hit,
the volume in the stocks off the recent lows has
been very weak.

next move down through $840?

TradersQuest & others,
Thanks for the link. The value of TradeStation's sector sort is that it is happening in real time intraday so that one can see the money shifting. The reason that I asked what stocks comprise the DJ sub-sectors is that they have one called "footwear". What stocks are in that sub-sector? That I cannot find. Maybe I can call DJ and find the link to their subsector list of stocks. Once I have that I can make watchlists for each sub-sector and be able to move into various stocks as the sector shifts happen intraday or just buy/sell the matching ETF's. TradeStation is by far the best platform around. I like my one screen that has 9 time frames running at once in real time each with its own technical indicators. One click and I can make a time frame fill the screen. Change the ticker and all of the time frames change to the new stock.

ICB Industry / Sector / Subsector
3000 Consumer Goods
3700 Personal & Household Goods
3760 Personal Goods
3765 Footwear

http://tinyurl.com/5ywfxb

YOU THE MAN !!!

craig- well, here we are->i think we break 12800 today...

looking for entries into QID @ 43+, FXP in the low seventies, and SKF in the nineties...

vinod- ESLR->wondering if it may head towards 12 today...

Well heck and dang if the futures aren't over 12800. Good thing my positions are small....

stktrader - check out finviz.com - easy way to see the market