The rise of the new energy world order

Ten oil-rich states possess 82.2% of the world's proven reserves. In order of importance, they are: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Russia, Libya, Kazakhstan and Nigeria.

The possession of natural gas is even more concentrated. Three countries - Russia, Iran and Qatar - harbor an astonishing 55.8% of the world supply

A growing risk of conflict. Throughout history, major shifts in power have normally been accompanied by violence - in some cases, protracted violent upheavals. Either states at the pinnacle of power have struggled to prevent the loss of their privileged status, or challengers have fought to topple those at the top of the heap. Will that happen now? Will energy-deficit states launch campaigns to wrest the oil and gas reserves of surplus states from their control - the George W Bush administration's war in Iraq might already be thought of as one such attempt or to eliminate competitors among their deficit-state rivals?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD17Dj04.html

Merrill Lynch to write down further $6-8 billion: report

the writedowns would take the total since October to more than $30 billion and lead to a third straight quarterly net loss at Merrill, the longest such losing streak in its 94-year history.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUST23375520080416

Global warming rage lets global hunger grow

We drive, they starve.

The mass diversion of the North American grain harvest into ethanol plants for fuel is reaching its political and moral limits.

The UN says it takes 232kg of corn to fill a 50-litre car tank with ethanol. That is enough to feed a child for a year. Last week, the UN predicted "massacres" unless the biofuel policy is halted.

http://tinyurl.com/4r2f3d

Good morning.

There are no Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

Have a great day.

moeb -

In regards to the Hindenburg Omen, the rationale is this : a market can show either a greater magnitude of of established new 52 week highs or a greater number of established new 52 week lows, but not both at the same time!

When both new highs and new lows are large, the market is in an unhealthy state that is conflicted and will display extreme divergence with a bias leaning towards future prices going lower.

QT -

Yesterday the Hindenburg Omen moved from "WATCH" to "WARNING" status; A new Hindenburg Omen observation Tuesday has begun.

This is signal of a potential coming crash over the next 120 days (4 months).

Crashes only occur about 20 percent of the time after a confirmed Omen.

A confirmed Omen requires two observations.

Tuesday's is the first of a series of possible clusters. Even after a confirmed Omen, 80 percent of the time we do not get crashes.

Risks of a major decline that is less than a crash are far higher than normal after seeing two observations within a month's period of time.

October 2007 was the last time the Hindenburg Omen presented itself, and it did result in a serious decline.

Tuesday saw 77 New 52 Week Highs in the NYSE and 79 New Lows.

The lower of the two was 2.37 percent of total issues traded, which is above the 2.20 threshold.

Since New Highs and New Lows are above 2.20 percent, it is indicative of an unhealthy market, which most of the time resolves to the downside.

Tuesday's McClellan Oscillator remained negative at -6.57, a necessary condition for a Hindenburg Omen.

throwing out a few dates/numbers/ideas for technology bulls (may be a few more today than there were yesterday):

USD=ultra (2x) semi-conductors (top holdings include TXN/AMAT/30% position in INTC), ROM=ultra (2x) technology (top holdings include MSFT/AAPL/GOOG/INTC/CSCO)....if you're thinking about USD, might want to wait for a pull-back in INTC before entering...

SNDK reports Thursday (EPS estimate +0.26)
AMD reports Thursday (EPS estimate -0.51)
ESLR reports Thursday (EPS estimate -0.07)
GOOG reports Thursday (EPS estimate +4.52)

SEMI book-to-bill ratio for March release date 04/17/08 (also Thursday)...if it's greater than 1.0, watch for semis to run:

Feb-08 $1,228.9 $1,315.2 0.93
Jan-08 $1,141.0 $1,279.3 0.89
Dec-08 $1,156.3 $1,361.7 0.85
Nov-07 $1,130.7 $1,383.2 0.82
Oct-07 $1,176.9 $1,477.5 0.80
Sep-07 $1,235.0 $1,557.4 0.79
Aug-07 $1,371.2 $1,682.3 0.82
Jul-07 $1,406.3 $1,685.8 0.83
Jun-07 $1,607.6 $1,768.1 0.91
May-07 $1,641.9 $1,670.2 0.98
Apr-07 $1,567.5 $1,594.7 0.98
Mar-07 $1,419.6 $1,436.4 0.99
Feb-07 $1,398.1 $1,423.0 0.98
Jan-07 $1,445.8 $1,448.0 1.00
Dec-06 $1,497.2 $1,482.3 1.01
Nov-06 $1,426.5 $1,486.1 0.96
Oct-06 $1,468.6 $1,562.9 0.94
Sep-06 $1,639.2 $1,672.8 0.98

didn't mean to include ESLR in the above post...unrelated sector, of course, but i know several here are holding...

Lots of gaps up in pre-market trading: http://www.tradersquest.de/2008/04/16/gap-watchlist-usa-2008-04-16/

Regarding SNDK, bear in mind that Intel reported weakness in flash memory pricing. Is this already "priced" into SNDK?

JP Morgan reports write offs of $5.1 billion, but that's okay because earnings were in line with analyst estimates. Sigh...

And hey, compared to reports that Merrill will report losses of $8 billion, it's easy to see why Morgan is considered the cream of the crop.

Incredible.

Received an email this a.m. from a friend in Shanghai. Seems to be an uproar concerning a CNN reporter named Cafferty who made strong comments about China on an April 9th broadcast. He remarked they are "the same bunch of goons and thugs . . ." There's been calls demanding disciplinary action and apologies. CNN has allegedly issued a statement. Remarks have been viewed as racist and despicable by different groups including Legal Immigrant.

Speaking of China, saw news today where FEED bought a number of hog farms in Southern China. Lots of demand in China with rising prices. FEED is up $1.29 in premarket. (No position).

Have to wonder with the demand in China for pork, why the Canadian government is spending $50 million (see yesterday's post) to slaughter pigs. Seems like someone could make a lot of money exporting them to China IMO.

All these asset class cycles are amazing to watch over time.

Farm 1980's/Savings&Loan/Junk Bonds/Russian Growth/Internet-Dot.com/RealEstate/Commodities/EmergingGrowth/Etc.Etc.

It is almost like these "ideas" are viruses that run through our collective mental communities.

You can actually watch people as they get infected.

"You can't go wrong with real estate....they aren't making anymore."

Making money is the least of the issues Seamus.

"Canada to help ease food shortage: Ottawa"

Globe and Mail: http://tinyurl.com/5785cr

Yet they pay farmers to kill their pigs.

"OTTAWA — Canada will respond to the international appeal to alleviate the pain of surging food prices on the world's poor, says Beverly Oda, the federal Minister of International Co-operation.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government just needs a little more time to figure out how best to do it."

Amazing isn't it. And people are dieing of hunger.

Re: UNG and taxes:

Link to the Raymond James guide to Managed Limited Partnerships (MLPs) including tax rules: http://www.naptp.org/documentlinks/RaymondJamesGuidetoMLPs.pdf

Interesting passage from the 2005 Raymond James Guide to MLPs (which is all written in Q&A form) What Happens upon the Death of a Unitholder?
"Like inherited stock, inherited MLP units receive a “step-up” in basis upon the death of the owner. For estate tax purposes, the value of the unit is its fair market value, and that becomes the new basis for the heir going forward. Any capital gains or recapture of ordinary income is eliminated, which makes MLP units an excellent vehicle for estate tax management."
One can own a US MLP (or LLC) which on average typically tax defer 80 to 90% of distributions and pass those on as inheritance (when one passes on) and the tax liability is GONE!

Another passage: Should MLP Units be held in an IRA or Other Tax- Exempt Account? "One of the most attractive features of MLP income is that it is already largely tax-deferred, so there is no need to put it into an IRA to receive the tax benefit. Buying MLPs in an IRA would be similar to buying tax-free municipal bonds in an IRA – you would not benefit from the benefit. The most compelling reason, however, is that IRAs are subject to federal income tax on unrelated business taxable income, or “UBTI.” UBTI is income earned by a tax-exempt entity (such as an IRA) that does not result from tax-exempt activities. Income over $1,000 per year from MLPs is classified as UBTI and is, therefore, subject to federal tax. Note that income in this situation is considered the taxable portion of the distribution. For example, if an individual owned 3,000 units of an MLP inside of an IRA and it paid a distribution of $2.00 per unit, which was 80% tax-deferred (or 20% taxable in the current year), income would total $1,200 ($2.00 x 3,000 units x 20% taxable portion). In this scenario, taxes would be payable on $200 of income (the amount above the $1,000 limit).

Tax status of UNG: http://www.unitedstatesnaturalgasfund.com/ung_details.html

UsingTurbo Tax - enter EVERY number from every line or import the data directly if you can. Interest, cap gains, and dividends are always reportable even if box 1 is a loss. You always also need to enter box 1 as a negative number to keep track of suspended passive losses. The computer program should put a 0 on schedule E instead of the negative number

CPI data out, Orwellian in its deception.

Si02 You're right about money being the least of the issues. Seems like the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing up there . . . and I thought we Americans were the only ones who did that!

Today's housing data from Econoday

MBA applications weak:

"The mortgage bankers' purchase index slipped 0.8 percent to 381.6, right at the four-week average of 381.5 to indicate very soft demand for housing. The refinance index rose 5.2 percent to 2,866.0. Rates slipped back in the week with 30-year fixed mortgages averaging 5.74 percent."

Housing starts point to continued bust:

"Housing starts may have gotten some temporary bounce from atypically favorable winter weather but permits are still pointing down. Starts are still a little above their recent bottom even though falling back 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate. February's modest slippage followed a 7.1 percent surge in January. However, permits came in much weaker."

Mom&Pop Stuff:

jk484 thanks, it took me a couple of minutes to digest what you presented, it comes to this out on the farm:

To fill a 13.2 gallon tank of gas it takes 511.5 pounds of corn.

WOW

onlineaces,

Thanks for the Hindenburg Omen update.

I was thinking every morning we have the:

"Cara 100 Ratings Changes by Bull Hunter",

why not the:

"Hindenburg Omen Warning Update by onlineaces"?

Consider it.

Thanks again for the udate.

NWA- adding at 10.08...

Where, oh where, is Colin Twiggs??? Last post was April 10.

robon

Colin Twiggs Apr 15th

http://tinyurl.com/5ujcxu

taking SNDK and MRVL off for now...

Why is the dollar tanking this morning?

I have no position in JPM, but if you want a quick lesson in how Wall Street plays games with estimates, check out the trend in estimates for this quarter. Today we learned that JPM "beat" estimates that averaged 64 cents per share, report 69 cents per share. Well, 30 days ago, analysts estimates JPM would report 70 cents per share, which they ratcheted down from 98 cents per share a month before, which in turn were adjusted downward from $1.03 the month before that.

So, three months ago JPM was expected to report $1.03 per share in earnings. The market, however, is today cheering the fact that they have instead reported .69 per share.

C.note:

The Ethanol Scam: One of America's Biggest Political Boondoggles

the whole point of corn ethanol is not to solve America's energy crisis, but to generate one of the great political boondoggles of our time. Corn is already the most subsidized crop in America, raking in a total of $51 billion in federal handouts between 1995 and 2005 -- twice as much as wheat subsidies and four times as much as soybeans. Ethanol itself is propped up by hefty subsidies, including a fifty-one-cent-per-gallon tax allowance for refiners. And a study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development found that ethanol subsidies amount to as much as $1.38 per gallon -- about half of ethanol's wholesale market price.

But as a gasoline substitute, ethanol has big problems: Its energy density is one-third less than gasoline, which means you have to burn more of it to get the same amount of power. It also has a nasty tendency to absorb water, so it can't be transported in existing pipelines and must be distributed by truck or rail, which is tremendously inefficient.

ADM is the leading producer of ethanol, supplying more than 1 billion gallons of the fuel additive last year. Ethanol is propped up by more than 200 tax breaks and subsidies worth at least $5.5 billion a year. And ADM continues to give back: Since 2000, the company has contributed $3.7 million to state and federal politicians.

http://tinyurl.com/2h392l

taking off FNM/FRE for now...

adding to WM at 10.51...

jogyp/vinod- are you exiting SIGM, holding, or adding?

Cara 100 Update:

Upgrade:

NUE - to Buy @ Longbow

Target Price Raised:

INTC - $27 to $27.50 @ AmTech Research

UPDATE: Paulson Tops Hedge-Fund Pay List At $3.7B
Last update: 4/16/2008 10:05:22 AM

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

John Paulson, who earned $3.7 billion in 2007 shorting the subprime-mortgage market, was the highest-paid hedge fund manager in 2007, according to Alpha magazine.
George Soros and James Simons were second and third, respectively, each earning nearly $3 billion last year.
The three are among five managers who earned more than $1 billion.
Paulson, a former Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC) investment banker, runs New York-based Paulson & Co., which oversees $32 billion in assets. The fund pocketed a whopping $15 billion last year on bets that the housing market would crumble and the value of subprime mortgages would shrink.
Simons, who led the 2006 list with $1.7 billion, is head of Renaissance Technologies Corp., a leading quantitative hedge-fund firm that oversees more than $30 billion. He earned $2.8 million last year.
Soros runs Soros Fund Management and took home $2.9 million in 2007. He was the top earner on Alpha's inaugural list in 2002, with $700 million.
In fourth place was Philip Falcone of Harbinger Capital Partners who earned $1.7 billion, and Kenneth Griffin of Citadel Investment Group was fifth with $1.5 billion.
The top 25 managers earned, on average, $877 million in 2007, up 65% from 2006. Alpha doubled the list to 50 this year, and eight people from the U.K. made the cut. Managers needed to earn $210 million to qualify for the ranking.
-By Kathy Shwiff, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5975; Kathy.Shwiff@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 16, 2008 10:05 ET (14:05 GMT)

online-------- Aren't these the same guys (hedge funds) that vociferously complained when there was discussion they should be taxed like everyone else? Think they only pay the dividend tax rate or something like 20%, while Mom and Pop working two jobs each are in the 28-33% area.

HTF can anyone expect to 'earn' 3.7B?

SIGM:
I am going to hold for the 18s. I think the selloff yesterday was unwarranted.

http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/2008/04/sigma-designs-nasdaqsigm-sell-off.html

Re: Negative Silver Lease Rates

I wonder if this has struck anyone as a possiblity. You go down to Scotia Moccata and lease the entire inventory of sterling silver they have available for one month.

So, if they have something in the order of a million dollars of silver sitting around, they pay you one tenth of one percent, which is $1000.-

So an intinerant without a penny to their name can wander into Scotia Moccata, head up to the bullion desk, lease out all of the available sterling silver inventory, and be paid out 1/10th of one percent at the end of the month.

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/silverleaserate.html

BNN

Jon Nadler from Kitco

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?id=2122&vid=45826

Note that Jon states refining services are very busy, so there's lots of scrap supply. Scrap supply is as finite as investor demand is presumed to be. The factor that was not considered was liquidity as the cause of higher prices.

Levente Mady from MF Global Canada (Institutional Advisors)

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?id=2122&vid=45822

Injections of cash from the Bank Of Canada means a lower Canadian dollar, and higher Canadian gold prices. So buying Canadian gold producers to avoid $US currency risk may not be productive, unless gold equities advance significantly.

2nd: Exactly.....that 'income' is not listed on the "earned income" line of their return.

Their capital earns money.

Mom and Pop have no capital. They are in debt and hold their entire life's work in $USD...allocated in US companies.

321gold.com editorials:
There are some very exciting developments going on at Terrane but the market paid almost no attention to them! The conference call conducted by the Company on April 1 generated only one question. The market for junior exploration companies is the worst we have seen in years. Being contrarian at heart, I think that this depressed market continues to offer exceptional investing opportunities, such as Terrane. Terrane Profile

One more point about Terrane's valuation: based on only proven and probable reserves, Terrane is now trading at similar valuation levels as:

* Gold Reserve - a US company operating in Venezuela under a constant threat of nationalization by Hugo Chavez;
a
* Crystallex (Terrane is trading at 1/2 of Crystellex's valuation levels) - a Canadian company operating in Venezuela;
a
* Mundoro Mining - a company operating in China with no business license since 2005;
a
* Nevsun Resources - a company constructing a mine in the volatile African nation of Eritrea.
http://tinyurl.com/484zuw

Today looks like a 400 point day for the Dow.

With the new oil invetory report out this morning, it appears DCR is almost dead and DUG/SMN header lower.

Adding OXPS because it looks cheap.

Roubini's April 15th, missive, awesome as always.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/252489/

OZN.TO -

I have been following this company for a few months now. FWIW....today is the highest volume day ever that I am aware of. 4m+ traded on TSX already today. One of the trades was a cross by CIBC of appx. 2.6m shares at $1.40 CAD.

I remember someone saying awhile back that big crosses in junior mining companies can be investors moving large chunks from taxed to tax-free accounts. Is it possible that is what is going on here?

Bank Of Canada Treasury Bill Auction:

Canada C$3.0B Of 19-Day T-Bills Yield Avg 3.389%
April 16, 2008 10:32am ET

Dow Jones Newswires

04-16-08 1031ET

Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Treasury bill rates:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/tbill.html

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/digest.html

US Treasury bond rate:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

A positive yield differential between the loonie and the buck would indicate a higher loonie.

Re: Canadian Dollar (sorry for the long post)

Canada Morning: C$ Up Sharply On Data, Global USD Weakness
April 16, 2008 10:41am ET

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--The Canadian dollar is sharply higher early Wednesday after a combination of strong Canadian economic data and another weak U.S. housing report combined to reinforce an upward move that began for the Canadian unit overnight.

The U.S. dollar was trading at C$1.0030 at 10:35 a.m. EDT (1435 GMT), from C$1.0077 at 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT) and C$1.0199 late Tuesday.

The Canadian dollar has moved to one-month highs on the brink of the C$1.0000 figure on a combination of factors, beginning with overnight gains based off the surge to new record highs for world oil prices.

Gains for the Canadian dollar accelerated in early North American dealings however, as currency markets reacted to a slew of U.S. and Canadian data.

Canada's February manufacturing report outpaced expectations for a second consecutive month, as sales jumped 1.6%.

Around the same time, the U.S. dollar was seeing broad-based losses in reaction to to March consumer price index and especially housing starts data.

While the U.S. CPI was largely as expected, the U.S. dollar was rocked by news that housing starts plummetted a further 11.9% during the month, in a showing that one U.S.-based economist termed "calamitous."

The U.S. dollar was also battered by strong euro-zone inflation data that sent the euro to new historical highs against the U.S. currency.

All told, Wednesday's developments have supported a long-awaited break of the Canadian dollar's recent narrow range-trading pattern against the U.S. dollar, and hold out the potential for follow-on gains.

"Positive Canadian data, bearish U.S. data, and a U.S. dollar that's trading with an offer tone globally has all combined to help push the Canadian dollar through C$1.0050," said George Davis, chief foreign exchange technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

While Wednesday's rally still leaves the Canadian dollar in the broader four-month-plus range on both sides of the parity mark versus the U.S. dollar, the currency's surge back to around parity suggests that a further break through parity may soon occur.

The past few months have generally seen periods of a few weeks where the Canadian dollar trades on the strong side of parity, followed by several weeks of range trade on the weak side of the C$1.0000 figure.

"It could get a bit interesting around the parity level with some option interest down there, and just psychologically as well in terms of what that number means," said Davis.

Thursday's Canadian March CPI data will likely have some role in determining whether the Canadian dollar can sustain its gains, Davis added.

Canadian bonds are narrowly mixed on both sides of unchanged early Wednesday, with the benchmark 10-year bond yielding 3.63% from 3.61% late Tuesday.

These are the exchange rates at 10:35 a.m. EDT (1435 GMT), 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), and late Tuesday.

USD/CAD 1.0030 1.0077 1.0199

EUR/CAD 1.6004 1.6054 1.6087

CAD/JPY 100.92 100.49 99.69

-Paul Evans; Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2022; paulr.evans@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-16-08 1040ET

Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

jogyp- nice call, may get your 18 on SIGM today...your +400 call may as well...

ALOHA !!

number2son ... You point out the key to this whole farce. In one phrase the entire US Economy can be summed up the same way ... REDUCED EXPECTATIONS! Any bank can meet expectations if you reduce them low enough! The rally today like many in the past have all been a "set up"! Enron management went to jail for this sort of stuff! In one word, "LYING" ... I am not sure these CEOs aren't psychopaths. I mean what else would it take to get a good night's sleep? Apparently these guys sleep like babies! You might say, "But these guys aren't killing anyone!" These CEOs are killing a lot of people's future as they leave with huge bonuses and I believe you can link a number of suicides to the actions of these CEOs. To some people their whole life is their portfolio and if your major holding was BSC, like I'm sure a number of BSC employees had, then that would devastate your future plans. Look at how many people Jim Cramer told to hold BSC ... MILLIONS of MAD MONEY viewers!!! Not just hold it but buy it because he believed it would be a takeover target ... HA! Well, in a sense it was taken over, but not quite the way Cramer expected! Is Cramer telling everyone to buy JP MORGAN? Someone is buying it today!

Buried in the JP MORGAN report on earnings article at Yahoo Finance was this quote ... "Compared to its peers, though, the bank has remained healthy."! Thats like saying Stalin was a nice guy compared to Hitler! JP MORGAN is the BIGGEST holder of toxic derivatives out of all the US Banks, but it is the favorite of the FED! What's "healthy" about all this?

2nd
I just got time from fixing a server
I got out SIGM at 17.25
please take look t FTO.OXPS and BSX for swing trade

will buy DAL at 8.90 and NWA at 9.60

Mahalo Kaimu!

Interesting book and video discussing how corporations act like sociopaths and even pschopaths:

Video (Google Video)
http://tinyurl.com/6n2g3e

Book (Google Books)

http://tinyurl.com/6nkntr

Ron

Anybody have a free site for intraday quote data? Or cheap options?

Nice interview with former Treasury Secretary O'Neill on Bloomberg. Calls idea of a strong dollar "vacuous notion".

Started small bite of FXP @ 78.14

More Mom&Pop Stuff:

The other day a Caraista wondered what he/she might do with all the silver coins some on this blog were buying as a hedge. Below please consider a great example now in play and very well may be coming to a gasoline pump near you:

Fuel for thought: Quarter-a-gallon gas special makes cents

By Julie French
for the Mail Tribune
April 05, 2008

ASHLAND — The cheapest gallon of gas in town is going for 25 cents — with a catch.
Gary Mallicoat, the owner of the Exit 14 Shell station off of Interstate 5, is offering one gallon of gas in exchange for quarters dated 1964 or before. He is also accepting dimes, half dollars and dollar coins.

He ran the same special as the owner of the Major Quality Discount station in Ashland in 1976, when gas prices jumped higher than $1 for the first time during the oil embargo.

He still has the original Ashland Daily Tidings news clipping from that first promotion.
"It was sitting on the wall, and I said, 'Gosh, we ought to do that again,' " he said.

In the two weeks he has been running the deal, Mallicoat has collected $40 in quarters.
"Right now, this is a better deal than the coin shops," he said.

The value of pre-1965 silver coins is hovering around $3, depending on the coin, according to Mike Drager, owner of Ashland Money and Metals.

ALOHA !!

The Rothschilds in India ... A signal that the global "smart money" bankers are moving into the real wealth of commodities! Of course the Indian farmers will be overjoyed to be getting $2 a day to farm for the Rothschild's! What will happen to the European and Japanese farmers? Globalization at work!

READ ON:
Bharti Enterprises & de Rothschilds Announce A 50:50 JV For Export Of Fresh Fruits & Vegetables

FieldFresh Foods formed at an initial investment of USD 50 million (Rs 250 crores)

The new enterprise to “LINK INDIAN FIELDS TO THE WORLD”

-Ravi Deol to head the business as President & CEO
High focus on the export of fresh fruits and vegetables; company to subsequently target processing as well.

-Utilizing the world’s best practices, management and technology, FieldFresh Foods to work towards converting India into a preferred food basket for the world

-FieldFresh Foods to target markets like the European Union, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, South East Asia, Gulf & CIS countries
Draws plans to invest in setting up a world class agri research center & model farm in Punjab in Phase I

-Indian farmers to get access to the best of contract farming practices, including the latest in farming technology & techniques

During Phase I, sourcing to be carried out in states of Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Western U.P and Uttranchal
New Delhi, September 16, 2004:Bharti Enterprises Ltd., India’s leading business conglomerate with interests in telecom and infrastructure projects, and ELRo Holdings India Ltd, an investment company founded by Sir Evelyn de Rothschild & Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, announced the creation of “FieldFresh Foods Pvt. Ltd.” The joint venture, formed with an investment of USD 50 million, plans to initially focus its attention on the global distribution of fresh fruits and vegetables in markets such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, South East Asia, Gulf & CIS countries. Subsequently, the company intends to enter into the processing of agro products. (more)

Link: http://tinyurl.com/5w67a4

Fatty - try freerealtime.com

Fatty - try also vantagewire.com

ALOHA !!

Anyone here attending this conference?

THE WORLD ECONOMIC SUMMIT
at
FREEDOM FEST 2008
"The Trade Show for Liberty"
July 10-12, 2008, Bally’s/Paris Resort
www.freedomfest.com

Three Conferences in One!

WORLD ECONOMIC SUMMIT
(Top economists & geo-political experts)

SKOUSEN’S CAFÉ
(The World’s Best Investment Seminar)

FRIDAY NIGHT FIGHTS!
(Eight great debates in 2008)

Join us for three glorious days
In fabulous Las Vegas

...once again the market is following our script nicely, hope others were getting long on Monday and Tuesday while DJ-30 was testing the April 1st opening level, very nice :) ... will be unloading at least half of calls as we approach resistance, carry the rest to see if this thing has legs

good trading all!
ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

In this morning's Daily Report, Bill wrote, "Coming soon there will be a reversal in rates as the Fed will be forced to raise them to stem the explosion in food and energy costs, and that will cause the rising trend in bond prices to reverse. At the point of reversal, the first leg of the Trade of this Generation will occur, which is to sell bonds."

Not being a bond aficionado, would appreciate some help from the board on how we might be able to profit from such a rate reversal.

Am I correct in thinking that when the Fed reverses course and raises interest rates - then in theory, the price of bonds should reverse and start down. (Long bonds falling more than short bonds.)

So at the point of reversal (or close to it) - the smart move would be to short/buy puts on bonds (preferably long bonds - e.g. "TLT" - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)?

Thank you

Intel lowered its earnings from 32 cents a share down to 25 cents a share in the last 90 days. IBM has actually raised its earnings from 1.42 to 1.45 in the last 90 days.

Given the economic environment I don't believe IBM can beat this number, its trading at a 52 week high.

Going long IBM put options...lets see what happens...as the largest Dow Component (since its a price weighted index)...whatever happens to IBM will happen to the Dow tomorrow most likely...

bigboyz
When does IBM report today, after the closing?

Yes, suppose to be after the close. Consensus is $1.45 according to Yahoo Finance.

You can smell the hope and greed, can't you? Its like Napalm in the morning.

This rally may have legs as people come to hope that 1) the worst is behind us (trademarked) 2) stimulus checks will reignite the economy 3) The Fed will save us all

If IBM is laying off long time workers, like Genesis's friend, then how good can its business be? That doesn't mean they can't make earnings this quarter but it shows planning for a downturn.

I have seen six restaurants close in NYC, from a cheap Chinese takeout to a large expensive place. Two were closed by City Marshalls, the Chinese place for non-payment of rent and a fancy bistro for non-payment of taxes. Other places close for renovations but never reopen.

This market is a casino. Will it be red or black tomorrow?

1) Fed's mission is fighting deflation and fighting volatility...looks like they're winning (to the detriment of Main Street and benefit of Wall Street)

2) Housing still week
3) Credit markets didn't change today

it is what it is

Another thought - April is the by far the best month historically with September being the worst. Do you think it is coincidence that people are bullish at the start of spring and bearish at the start of fall.

1926 - 2006 S&P

# Jan: 1.71%
# Feb: 0.26%
# Mar: 0.63%
# Apr: 1.49%
# May: 0.27%
# June: 1.37%
# July: 1.86%
# Aug: 1.27%
# Sept: -0.76%
# Oct: 0.66%
# Nov: 1.18%
# Dec: 1.79%

Jim Willie's latest public article outlines the "flip side" of CNBC's Wall Street cheerleading hype:
http://tinyurl.com/6l6jok

At the Cambridge Resource Investment Conference in Calgary last weekend many of the presenters commented on what they perceived as a growing disconnect between Wall Street and the "real world".

MU - Micron - wasn't this one a Cara 100 a few months back? Looks like it set a nice double bottow "W" formation in late March. $8 needs to be tested before I feel it's confirmed. Anyone following this one these days?

Dave

April is the cruelest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.

The Wasteland
TS Eliot

bigboyz,

Large-player intraday money flow suggests large players have been exiting IBM since the gap-up at the end of February. Flow accelerated lately - large divergence between today's price and "effective volume". It may still have a final run-up/selling climax, remember this is options week and they could indeed match or even beat estimates, but in the intermediate term (3 months) I think long puts will do well. I just wouldn't blindly bet on a reversal this week - the market fades everything on a dime lately.

Highlights from: "Energy futures retreat sharply after hitting new records"

-The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said inventories of gas fell by 5.5 million barrels, much more than analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected. But as they read deeper into the report, they found that gas demand has fallen an average of 1 percent each of the last four weeks compared to the same period last year.

-"Demand for gasoline is terrible," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "Demand should be rising this time of year."

-However, oil investors seemed to shrug off the dollar's decline to a new low against the euro on Wednesday. That could be a sign that investors are turning from the dollar to demand fundamentals and the deteriorating economy for price direction, analysts said. A view that demand for oil remains strong globally, although it may be falling in the United States, has also supported oil prices in recent months, analysts say. But that could change, if demand continues to weaken.

-"We're seeing a major slowdown in U.S. demand growth," Flynn said.

-Still, analysts expect gas prices to rise higher before they fall. Many analysts see retail prices peaking around $3.65 a gallon next month. The Energy Department, in a recent forecast, said prices could average as high as $3.60 a gallon this summer on a monthly basis, but could rise as high as $4 on a national average basis at times.

http://tinyurl.com/5nzkff

Looking to scale into DUG around 32

The seeds of Euro frailty are being planted:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/16/cnburly116.xml

Berlusconi has pledged and alliance with Sarkozi to undermine the ECB and let politicians control interest rates, as they effectively do in the US.

With stories like this it is easy to imagine gold rising against all fiat currencies.

Learn2Invest
re: Bond reversal

Here are three inverse mutual funds to consider:

RRPIX DXKSX RYJUX

Beige Book results moved the markets down...report is bad.

US Fed Beige Book: Economic Conditions Have WeakenedLast update: 4/16/2008 2:04:28 PM
By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. economy weakened in March as consumers curbed spending and businesses endured higher costs, a Federal Reserve report said Wednesday. The Fed's "Beige Book" review, which is released about eight times a year, said consumer loan demand slowed and lending standards tightened. Labor markets weakened. The Beige Book is a summary of economic activity prepared with information from the Fed's 12 district banks. The latest, done by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, reflects data covering the end of February through early April. "Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic conditions have weakened since the last report," the report said. "Nine districts noted slowing in the pace of economic activity, while the remaining three - Boston, Cleveland, and Richmond - described activity as mixed or steady." Consumer spending was seen softening across most of the country. Tourism was generally described as strong. Demand for transportation services was generally characterized as weak. Business and health services expanded, the report said. Manufacturing trends varied. Reports on real estate and construction were anemic generally for the residential sector. Activity in the commercial sector has slowed, the Beige Book said. "Financial institutions in many districts indicated some deceleration in consumer loan demand, tightening in lending standards, and deterioration in asset quality," the report said. Farm sector conditions were improved. Activity was strong in energy. Labor markets were mostly described as weakening since the last report, issued March 5. A few districts reported ongoing shortages of skilled workers and some noted wage pressures. "Some weakening in the job market was reported in the New York, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis districts," the report said. "Cleveland reported flat employment levels, while Richmond indicated mixed trends," it said. "Boston and Kansas City indicated modest increases in employment, with some deceleration indicated in the latter. "Firms in the Philadelphia, Atlanta and Minneapolis districts reported layoffs, reductions in work hours, or hiring freezes in response to current or expected slowing in economic activity," the report said. Businesses across all districts reported increases in input costs. "In particular, price increases were consistently reported for food products, fuel and energy products, and many raw materials," the report said. Most manufacturers have raised or plan to raise prices. The response of service firms has been more mixed. "On balance, input costs have risen more rapidly than output prices, putting pressure on margins for many firms." Most district reported little change in retail

scaling back into SMN at 31.70...

Thanks, OG

kp84 - thanks for the info. I found an article at: http://tinyurl.com/4plufy

by Bill Donoghue which talks about these.

Thank you

Economic, Mortgage and Housing Rescue Bill
Testimony to House Committee on Financial Services

Some even worry about another Great Depression, and Herbert Hoover has been discussed frequently. Unfortunately, many recent comments wrongly accuse President Hoover of sitting by idly while the economy collapsed. Nothing could be further from the truth. President Hoover was extremely active in the early 1930s, pushing unprecedented peacetime legislation and regulation, intervening in grain and labor markets, and using his bully pulpit to influence business decisions.

This is also true today – many unprecedented policy actions have taken place. The federal funds rate has been cut by 57% (5.25% to 2.25%), the most rapid seven month reduction in almost sixty years. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been injected into the US financial system, using new and innovative Fed lending facilities. Non-depository institutions now have access to the discount window and the Fed actively financed the purchase of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase. Ten-years ago, a Fed-orchestrated meeting to assist Long-Term Capital Management was considered controversial.

A $150 billion stimulus bill has been passed, and the first rebate checks are scheduled to go out within weeks. Rules regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been altered to allow more balance sheet leverage, and Federal Home Loan Banks (themselves a Depression-Era entity) have been authorized to buy more mortgage loans.

Now, Congress is proposing new legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. Each of these actions, and every new proposal, is well intentioned. But, the road to serfdom is often paved with the best of intentions.

To discuss these issues today, I would like to ask and answer five important questions.

1) How did we get here?
2) Are today’s problems unique?
3) Government Failure or Market Failure?
4) What Can the Government Do?
5) Shouldn’t we think twice before overreacting?
http://tinyurl.com/4eqj2v

Case,

Good point....I actually have May puts...and will be adding the July puts before close...paying a bit up for them...if IBM rallies tommorrow on the earnings release I think ill give it till monday then finally back up the truck on July or later puts...

Thanks for the comments...

craig- short bond trade is working today!

Aden sisters on investing in gold. Their forecast is consistent with views expressed in this blog:
http://tinyurl.com/69j4xq
By the way, I have been unable to view the CNBC video referred to yesterday by moab. It wouldn't work for me yesterday or today. I wonder if CNBC has taken it off, or just my computer.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=708732748

Re: Food from India

Another reason to do my marketing at WFMI where I can try to seek out locally-grown organic foods. Why would I want to eat food grown with "night soil" used as fertilizer? Think about what is being fed to all this fish coming from fish farms in China, or their fruit and vegetable fertilizer sources for that matter. Now, more than ever, we need to know the origin of all food ( not where it is packaged or processed ) and make the decision to pay more for quality inputs.

RDR, video still seems to work, must be your computer...

WM- clearing the table at 11.10...

Yep 2nd...more ammo for your long tech idea.
I'm waiting for the report tomorrow, alittle wind at my back.....
I have a little short IEF.

Took a little profit on SNDK today in light of INTC's nand #'s. Not bad for a days sitting.

RRPIX should be doing well today too.

Slowly picking up FXP on the way down.

PCX COAL breakout high levels.

Position trades:

URZ and EXK

Should be good for a week or two.

taking FDX/UPS off the table...this leaves BA/NWA in the 'air transport' play...

craig- realize you're scaling in, but i would be cautious on FXP...

if the market "rarely accomodates the majority," this could be just the beginning...

IBM ($1.65) at 124.5 and climbing...

IBM up $4 after hours...

Well so much for the IBM puts :)

Got to admit I am impressed they pulled that off...not sure what I am missing yet...but im obviously wrong....

jogyp- not sure when the SEMI book-to-bill gets released tomorrow, but any number >1 will put us into short-squeeze territory-> consider taking (ST) longs off and reversing the trade...QID actually looks good here...

SSG/REW would give you inverse exposure to USD/ROM, neither of which offered good entry points today...

at close in into DUG/SMN/FXP/

Okay 2nd...let me get your timing right....

Are you thinking you would add QID on *tomorrow's* possible tech run-up or *now*?

BTW, sure liked the charts for the co's Sharkie posted, esp EXK. Good support just below these levels.

Thanks Shark, we'll see how it goes.

QID-> plan to enter tomorrow if/when we get a short squeeze following a better than expected SEMI book-to-bill...

2nd_ave

Are you shorting the bond market? If so can I ask you how?

QT- holding DXKSX, which is 2.5x the inverse of the 10-year...

2nd

Thanks. Now that is a mutal fund correct? Are there fees when you buy or sell?

QT- last round-trip was 3/31 purchase and 4/2 sale...$75 short-term trading fee...no other fees listed for the transactions...

vinod- you are one hell of a trader, my man...;)

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
(19:48pm April 18)

Banks reserves ("non-borrowed" ie their own reserves) are now
Apr. 9p -98981

When I checked 30 seconds ago, it said (I'm rounding the last 3 digits):
Apr. 9p -101000

So, they seem to be updating things regularly (LOL).

Folks, those of you following this know that the banks have never been negative in 50 years. Now the negative number is growing every two weeks, and is now at about negative a hundred billion. Another data point to watch in incredulity.

2008-
Jan. -3874
Feb. -17578
Mar. p -50495
Apr. 9p -98981

QT: You can also use RRPIX (1.25X long bond) or outright short one of the long bond ETF's like IEF or TLT. The mutual funds pay divs. If you short ETF's you may have to pay the person you borrowed the ETF shares from their div.

So shorting ETF's might be good for a trade but the mutuals better for longer term due to div considerations.

Sorry, RRPIX is 1.25X inverse the long bond.

2nd
only thing i did was never to keep loser too long
I got out DUG/SMN yesterday by losing over 1500
but I got them cheaper today
and i hope it work out this time

Interested in that article about silver quarters that someone posted earlier, I decided to rummage through a growing pile of change that I've collected over the last year - within I found a 1964 quarter - here goes the start to my bullion collection!

re the short bond trade:

http://tinyurl.com/3mebc2

excerpt from above link to todd harrison's column (he's quoting someone named mark bloudek):

"One of the things I've been watching closely is the inverse trading correlation between Treasury bonds and equities. The past few days have seen bonds begin a selloff while equities haven't had a corresponding rally.
Is the market signaling the flight-to-safety bid is over in the Treasury market? This is something to keep an eye on because in 1931, the long bond went from 95 to 65 and the current environment is strikingly similar to that era of deleveraging.
Will Hank [Paulson] be able to issue Treasurys/bailout the banking system if the Treasury market doesn't cooperate? If the Treasury market were to go into a deep sell off in the current environment, the economy would be headed for the deep freeze in my opinion."

vinod- i was congratulating you not only for buying at today's low, but also for a) being able to take a loss and b) being able to re-enter the same trade when it becomes attractive again...

2nd
I have learn a lot from you like size of trade
Before I will buy 500 share of stock I want to buy in one trade

Then I started doing trade in 100
Now I do it in 50. Even though trading fees add up but it is best way to do
And that what I found out
I limit my post in few sentences because of my poor English
That is the reason I can not explain why I am buying a stock

THE STRIKING PRICE DAILY

Others May Catch GE's Industrial Disease
By STEVEN M. SEARS

GENERAL ELECTRIC'S BAD EARNINGS report has brought to light a put trade in the Select Sector Industrial SPDR (XLI).

Goldman Sachs' options strategists recommend investors buy XLI June 36 puts, recently trading at $1.10, to hedge against the sectors perceived vulnerability to analysts lowering earnings estimates during the new several months. XLI was recently trading at about 37.37.

John Marshall and Stuart Kaiser, Goldman's options strategists, advised clients this morning that the options market is not pricing in enough risk for industrial stocks relative to other sectors.

"The GE earnings miss and guidance revision last week highlights how the increasingly weak macro environment can quickly sneak up on even the most diversified and well-run of industrials businesses," they said in a research report.

To be sure, GE rarely missing earnings estimates, but it did by a wide margin when it reported first-quarter earnings Friday. (See The Striking Price Daily, "GE Brings Bad Things To Light1," April 11, 2008.) The company told investors to lower earnings expectations for the rest of 2008. The earnings shortfall was primarily related to weakness in GE's financial unit, but the problems were significant enough to depress company-wide earnings per share by 7 cents per share. GE has almost 10 billion outstanding shares.

2nd & Craig

Thanks for your help tonight.

QT: Anytime!

Vinod: Some English speakers have a hard time posting, don't let English proficiency stop you from posting or saying more.

We understand exactly what you are saying.

Vinod, I learned the same thing from 2nd.
Now I buy in small lots where my fee is no more than 1%.

All -

If two of the most basic needs for the US population, food and energy, are increasing as a pretty good rate, as well as crude and gasoline (closed near $3.35 per gallon today) are rising as well, why is the market taking that as good news? If people are forced to spend more on food and energy, shouldn’t that result in less money available for spending, resulting in a further slowing of the economy?

S&P punch through 1360
when it does I buy OEX put
yesterday i brough one OEYQD at 11.40
If market goes up will add one more
it works for me

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/04/thursday-parameters-charts-and.html

Asset inflation. It's what the gubmint wants. Wall Street laughs while Main Street cries.