lot of headlines recently underscoring inflation: food, gas, wages, health-care...i don't think the Fed cuts today...whether or not the media was used to set the stage, don't know...JMO

gap-up bid in CAF...

Good morning.

One Cara 100 Ratings Change to report:

SLW - Upgraded to Sector Perform @ CIBC

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

n2s/vinod-> FSLR raises 2008 forecasts, now bidding up 6+%...seeing some carryover to ESLR, let's see if it lasts...

Reposting from end of previous thread:

A must-view Video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUpQ_EJMdGs

Even though he voted for that dunce Bush two times, strong kudos to Genesis for being a leader of this protest.

2nd
I do not think FED will cut
You have helped many of us here with your honesty,
Truth telling and you have very high credibility

I did brought MRK yesterday at 37.10
Also added more CALM
Looking at FTO if price is right

Like to gamble some so may buy one call and one put on OEX may 640
Will hold until FED announcement

Recession? What recession?

"The U.S. economy expanded at a 0.6 percent annual pace in the first quarter as an increase in inventories compensated for weaker consumer spending and a drop in business investment."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFZ5qPxNMywA&refer=home

2nd

for me ESLR is to keep for over year
it is in my IRA
I also have 1000 GLW cost 23.00
and few more

ALOHA !!

More USSA insecurity in action. Now we will have "terrorist vigilantes" roaming the USA looking for homegrown terrorists holding public meetings so as to "root out" all the "extremists", which this Bill does not define. Besides isn't this what the FBI and police are already doing with the aid of Homeland Security and the CIA? My God, how many entities do we need to create in order to kill off the US Peso faster?

H.R. 1955: Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007

Section 899B "Findings" is laughable. The last item #9 states this: "`(9) Certain governments, including the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia have significant experience with homegrown terrorism and the United States can benefit from lessons learned by those nations."

Has the US CONGRESS completely forgotten the victims of the Oklahoma City Fed Building bombing by our very own military trained homegrown terrorist Timothy McVeigh? Has it been that long ago? What has the USSA learned from that? Apparently nothing because by the #9 statement they don't even acknowledge that the USSA has ever had such an incident!

One of the focuses of this BILL will be the internet and as far as I can see by the vague definitions within the text of this BILL this site here at Bill Cara could be construed as an "extremist website" fermenting radical acts of "social equality" and "capital market" restructuring!

To see all the rest of this nonsense go to the following link:
http://tinyurl.com/26gj8m

Anything to spend more and more US Pesos and to divert attention away from the "real problem" America faces which is the US government and the FED!

vinod- MRK-> buying a component of the DJIA at the 52-wk low on panic selling will probably pay off...;)

Vinod, same here with respect to ESLR. I have a core, balanced position that I will hold so long as the fundamental story of this company and this sector remains intact.

Both ESLR and FSLR have reported that the story is only going to get better.

A link to an opinion letter drafted by a Federal Judge in DC regarding the Gary Aguirre v. SEC case. The SEC is not having much fun these days.

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/284

[Bill Cara note: Patchie, thanks for this document. You have provided another reality lessons clinic for students-of-the-market. Thank you.]

Thanks for the ongoing updates Bill. I am not sure what the book problem is you have been referring to. I got mine weeks ago and read it through. I expect to go back and study sections of it in more detail - it will be a good reference book for my investing journey.

I have not been trading the past few months - just absorbing. I am still amazed at how slowly trends and events unfold and play out, generally leaving lots of time for analysis and understanding before taking positions. Your persistence in mentoring is slowly getting through. As I get more familiar with the rhythms of the music I'm sure I will become a better dancer.

Thanks for all you do.

[Bill Cara note: The publication of "Lessons" by ISI Publications has been a success, and I extended my thanks to them for producing the book and congratulating me "on writing a very substantial work!". I decided, however, to remove myself from requirements to spend my valuable time to promote the book and co-ordinate it with Trader Wizard reports, seminars, etc. So, I decided to appoint Jim Watt (Bahamas) responsible for handling all branding, conferences, media and book sales going forward. Jim is meeting with ISI Publications this week with the intention that everybody's best interests are well served. What will come from this is a new venture called Trader Wizard Learning Systems.]

ALOHA !!

Yesterday I added 1-Au kilo and 15-Ag kilos to my sock drawer ... Isn't that the historical 1:15 gold/silver ratio?

I bought my wife 10oz silver bar for her birthday.
(I have a ways to go before I reach Kaimu's level!!)
And, Trading was halted this morning in the stock
with the name we shall not mention.

trading halt on KRY...uh oh...

Yeah, I just noticed the trading halt on KRY too... what's going on?

No one seems to have an inkling (sp?). No major price swings in the last few days, nothing out of the ordinary. Scouring the Yahoo MB, but nothing so far, but bashers and nonsense...

This just crossed wire on KRY:

UPDATES SHAREHOLDERS ON LAS CRISTINAS MINE
- Director General of the Administrative Office of Permits at the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources of Venezuela issued a communication to the Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana, the owner of the Las Cristinas concessions, denying a request for the authorization to affect natural resources to carry out exploration activities in the mining area of Las Cristinas in Sifontes, Bolivar State.
- The communication by the Director General appears to be in conflict with the Las Cristinas EIS approval, Construction Compliance Bond Request and Environmental Tax request issued by the MinAmb (that Crystallex posted and satisfied last summer) and the communication appears to be in opposition to all mineral mining in the Imataca Region.

looks like KRY may be denied THE permit

KRY denied

[Bill Cara note: Let this KRY situation be a lesson to traders who hang on in hope that stories come true. Where there is smoke, there's fire. Bill Cara Rule #1, if you don't feel totally comfortable with any matter related to trading or money, get out, walk away. I am sorry this situation came to this.]

GRZ crashing now!

EXETER DRILLS 719 METRES (2,358 FEET) OF 1.0 G/T (0.029 OZ/T) GOLD AND 0.38% COPPER AT CASPICHE, CHILE
BLOW OFF!

CALM may be forming inverse H&S. $34.15 is resistance. If the formation holds true it projects up to new highs - we shall see.

The stock has a nice uptrend starting from mid October of '06, and the latest low of $25.96 earlier this month hit the bottom trend line drawn from the beginning of the move.

2 year bond at 2.34 yield per yahoo (yesterday 2.35), last week 2.19, last month 1.59. Believe this move now makes the Fed comfortable as 2 year now is above overnight Fed funds rate of 2.25. Thus, IMO think Fed will either cut .25 basis point or hold. The key will be the statement . . . thinking it will signal end of cuts while closely monitoring overall economic factors for inflation, housing, etc. Seems like consensus is similar, but I wouldn't be surprised if no cut. . . . not sure market thinks the same on that.

Kudos to cyderman (think it was him) who mentioned Cara 100 GOL going thru the daily 30 RSI level a few days ago. Picked up a small position and riding it.

Watching UUP for possible entry on dollar strength depending on Fed statement.

Have a meeting late morning downtown, but hope to be back in time for announcement. Plan on joining skype upon return if time permits. Wow--KRY hit .50! (No position).

GOLD charts. I've posted charts at the following site for the GOLD:XAU ratio. The charts show we've entered the buy zone for the 3rd time this year. Hope they're helpful.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=87930

Does anyone know if Valgold will also be affected by the announcement by the Venezualan government?

Comes full circle. I actually found this site and Bill via KRY bull boards elsewhere.

BirdDog, I'm probably misreading your chart, but to me, it looks as if you have it marked so that the buy/sell zones are exactly the same. Where have I gone wrong?

FYI Venezuela is not alone in denying permitting and countries looking to grab a piece of the action as well are; Ecuador, Zambia, Mongolia, DRC, Alberta et al.
The list goes on, be aware that 'good intentions' aside, Governments worldwide see the commodity boom as a bonanza to pillage.

birddog,

its been discussed here before but the XAU is a not a true gold index compared the HUI or GDX.
i think those distortions could cause problems in the reliability of any signal generation chart.

Hey guys,

My full sympathy to any holder of KRY shares. What happened became predictable but is stillnot fair. If we weren't involved in the nonsense in the mideast we could fulfill our Monroe Doctrine obligation and kick the Shi# out of Chavez and restore a legitimate government. However, there is at least one lesson to be learned here other than the one Bill enunciated above. A lot of people were attracted to this investment because it seemed understandable...

A) there is an elephant pile of gold
B) all that's standing in the way is a rubber stamp
C) therefore the shares are undervalued.

A no-brainer, right? Wrong. Anything that seems too obvious is...too obvious.
To quote an author of a trading book, there are no gifts on Wall Street.

NYU,

I found this site that way as well. I got out of KRY long ago and from this site have been learning a lot and slowly becoming a better trader, before I was always chasing that home run so to speak.

I also found Bill's site while searching KRY stories one day about a year ago..I flew full circle also. Now I'm flying out for beers...

Kaimu has been right with his focus on political risk when investing in miners. These are national treasures in a sense of impoverished countries and they want to keep as much of the wealth for themselves as they can.

Those invested in companies with deposits in Russia ought to be wary in my opinion. Putin has been wresting energy assets from foreign firms. Metals may be next.

Wow look at KRY go..some people are F&*(^%$ crazy

Nah, they're making money on the bounce.

Moab as regards Investing in companies with deposits in Russia and being wary of them, I think its a different matter if your a certain Russian investor;)

Roman Abramovich Mined $18 Million
Highland Gold Mining, 40 percent of which Roman Abramovich's Millhouse bought at the end of last year, has turned a profit for the first time. Its proceeds grew by 21.9 percent last year to $112.1 million for a profit of $18.1 million.

Birddog - Valgold, Rusoro, KRY

Valgold has about as much land in Guyana as in VZ. I've asked them why they haven't emphasized that more in their PR/IR. Despite half-exposure to VZ, today the stock is down 7% or 1 penny.

Recall all that Chavez has done since Caristas first started following KRY: nationalized Caracas Electric, CEMEX, and certain food distribution assets; forced int'l oil companies into minority positions in Orinoco tar belt exploration (which may have more oil than Saudi Arabia). The solution to MANY problems seems to be to increase the role of the state.

Still, Caracas IS booming (I was there 2 months ago). People ARE making money - people close to the gov't. Last time I checked, Valgold's largest individual shareholder was Gustavo Cisneros, VZ's media barron, and most powerful capitalist. I think Valgold has played the politics well.

I'll also watch (Rusoro CA:RML down 15% on bigcharts)which bought the Chaco 10 mine, is led by Russians, and was upbeat on their prospects at PDAC. KRY's and GRZ's massive gold deposits have to end up in someone's hands!

At some point, they will be developed, perhaps by RML as a stalking horse for Russia's Polyus (UK:PLZL)which has a JV in Russia with Kinross, and which is said to be looking for overseas expansion opportunities.

I'll be guided by Rusoro's chart - if and when it breaks its downtrend. I won't bet the farm, and I won't KRY if things amble along for a few more months, as tends to happen in VZ.

FWIW

WGW up 6% to 2.74
May be a shift from miners with country risk .

Writersblock, thanks for the feedback. I've changed the notations on the chart to explain the levels a little better; follow the signal lines left and right to the points where the ratio line penetrates them.
Dr. Cosa, please take another look at the chart and review the gold, hui, and xau charts below the main ratio chart. You will see the buy signals have been reasonably successful in every period whether the investment has been in gold bullion or any of the gold stock indexes. Further, one might be most successful by holding gold through all cycles and buying/selling stocks based on the signals.

BridDog, thanks. I see it now. Before, you had two arrows, pointing right and left on each, so it looked as if they were pointing to the same things. Thanks,

sure feels like we see 13000/140 today...

i'd say it sure feels like whatever impact the Fed is least afraid of having after 2PM...

if we do rally on no mention of growth risks, i'd expect it to go a lot higher than 13K / 1400, at least up to the 200-day.

and it would be completely idiotic for the Fed to appear less concerned about growth than usual, after today's absolutely atrocious GDP report...

PCE durable / non-durable goods dropped substantially... we're even spending less money on gas! the PCE services was saved by an increase in household operation spending and a statistical outlying 0.4% increase in "Other" Spending. I think one of the things under that is Religion / Welfare spending, I guess we're all gettin' sceeerd. Reminds me of that scene in the Simpsons movie where everybody runs from the bar to the church and back again...

Seamus: re CHSCP: I see the market thinks this diversified ag company is mainly an energy/oil play.
I don't see how oil coming down hurts their margins, farmers will still need the Cenex truck to fill their tanks and supply fertilizer and feed. With record prices I doubt they are cutting back on planted acreage, quite the opposite.
Starting to scale back in as it comes to me.

For New Traders

Top Three Trading Don'ts

[Video] http://tinyurl.com/3kr3p2

Apparently the jockey was too fat & dumb?

Crystallex Updates Shareholders on Las Cristinas
10:34 a.m. 04/30/2008 Provided By Market Wire


TORONTO, ONTARIO, Apr 30, 2008 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- CRYSTALLEX INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION (KRY) has become aware that the Director General of the Administrative Office of Permits at the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources of Venezuela ("MinAmb") has issued a communication to the Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana ("CVG"), the owner of the Las Cristinas concessions, denying a request for the authorization to affect natural resources to carry out exploration activities in the mining area of Las Cristinas in Sifontes, Bolivar State.

In issuing the communication, the Director General cites sensitivities surrounding indigenous peoples, the small miners and the environment in the area generally known as the Imataca Forest Reserve, which contains a number of mining projects, which like those of Crystallex, are seeking the required permits to continue their development and exploitation.

The communication by the Director General appears to be in conflict with the Las Cristinas EIS approval, Construction Compliance Bond Request and Environmental Tax request issued by the MinAmb (that Crystallex posted and satisfied last summer) and the communication appears to be in opposition to all mineral mining in the Imataca Region.

The communication is subject to several avenues of response, including an application for reconsideration by interested parties under Venezuelan law. Crystallex is currently working with various levels of the CVG to develop strong submissions in support of the authorization to affect natural resources. Crystallex is committed to defending its rights in the Las Cristinas project and intends to respond to this matter vigorously in accordance with its legal entitlements to protect the interests of our shareholders.

I think it's going to hit 13K and 1405 right after the announcement then it will be sell the news!!!

Rob.

What if the Fed is weary of succumbing to market expectations and then being criticized for it! What if we get an actually account of the economy and inflationary concerns – thus preventing a rate cut!!!! Ok… I’ll wake up.

Guys,

this little article is a follow-up to a couple more I posted earlier on this fundamentals vs market action divergence that is so pronounced over a course of last couple months or so, and mirrors some of discussions taking place here lately. Hope it gives additional perspective.

http://tinyurl.com/4vdkft

KRY didn't get the permit.... so my prediction is no rate cut.

Apparently pigs can fly too.
http://tinyurl.com/5b4vvu

I bought gold & silver last week, so my prediction is that those go down. I also bought some rice to help with the shortage, since the price goes down on everything I buy. :)

Anyone buying KRY on the dip(s)? How about KRI.TO?

Is anyone else on this board attending the SaskROCKS Resource Investment Conference in Saskatoon on May 5? I would be willing to ask specific questions of exhibitors that people on this board may have (time permitting), and get back next Tuesday.

http://www.saskrocks.com/

*FOMC CUTS RATE 25 BPS TO 2.00%

2:16FOMC expects inflation to ease, growth to firm
2:15FOMC emphasizes inflation, downplays risks to growth
2:15Fed cuts discount rate by quarter point to 2.25%
2:15FOMC vote to cut rates is 8-2
2:15FOMC says inflation risks rising

As long as we're in the brief lull before a major discussion of the Fed decision, I wanted to add a comment on the FXP thread of Monday and Tuesday.

First, thanks David for your excellent analysis of FXP. It's rather scary to think that because it's reset daily, it declines. That was a very useful explaination.

However, being already in 2000 shares of FXP, and believing the basic bearish case, I was heartened by Roubini's article today on the confirmation of the US being in recession: http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

Frankly, my feeling now is that sitting on the FXP position is the best alternative because of the strong bearish case that is surfacing. I know that the market rises with each increasingly negative piece of news, but that's how inflections work: it takes some time to reach the turn. So, along with my new found friend QT, I'm just going to cross all appendiges and sit tight for a week or two, and then will reassess....

How much more bad news can the bulls take????

Vad....

Bought both of your books recently.

Thanks....

Allen

We're not doing to good today.

It looks like it was a head-fake up and then down. Unless there's two head-fakes. You never can tell on these FED days.

Rob.

Rob- a lot of selling into the news...which may just mean we continue to rally...

QT, I know. Are you going to hold, scale down, go short FXI, or get out completely? I'm still comfortable enough with the dark clouds gathering that I can sit for a while....It's a good, and so far expensive, lesson.

Allen

I'm with you...standing my ground.

allen: it looks like I am there with you. :) I didn't sell my FXP yesterday, as I thought today will be a down day, and I may also be stuck with more FXP shares than I want to have. I find it very hard to justify selling it now, given that FXI was rising for a month and it's chart looks ripe at least for a temporary but a noticeable reversal. As I had predicted, Fed cut only 0.25% and issued a warning statement about ending its cuts, so I don't get why the market is not crashing now. How can it keep going up with such news, given that the economic situation is worsening every week??? Where else can new optimism come from???

DavidV

allen/QT- wish you guys the best, but please read the link to Vad's 157pm post...

Gold moving up....

after pouring over the Fed's decision i did 2 things:

1. nothing. im waiting for gold to find a base before re-entering the market. everything else is noise at this point

im looking to Bill's projections of $800 gold
along w/ Jim Sinclair's insistence that most of the downside action will be resolved within the next 2 weeks. this could be a critical time for the set up to the TOG. but i havent decided if i will attempt to short bonds as well. i still have to learn a little more about bond action in Canada as part of the TOG as id rather play our market than the US market for these things.

2. i read something other than finance for a while
and found a great article on free speech that i posted on my blog w/ my own thoughts on the subject, i think it ties in to the broader topic of social equity that Bill speaks of.

http://jglobal.blogspot.com

comments as always are welcomed.

excerpt from Vad's blog:

- See, you can throw your arms up in desperation and say "this market is manipulated, it's impossible to make money in it". Or, you can view it as opportunity. Think of it this way: when you have this divergence between available information and price action, this is great trading opportunity. Market moving against the obvious is the one delivering maximum possible pain to as many participants as possible. Isn't it exactly the situation where Smart Money take advantage of the Crowd? That same situation that creates the very foundation of Tape Reading principles? Nothing particularly new about it either - I can list quite a few books describing just this.

- Come on... I just can't see this rally as real.

- What do you mean "real"? It happened, didn't it? I have a chart to prove it. You must be thinking of how sustainable it is when you say "real" - now, that's another matter and is a subject of continuous read of the market action. So far it's bullish in one timeframe, still bearish in another - and both of those are right until they aren't.

Now, when I ask what your definition leads you to, I want to make one more distinction. Don't ever forget what your job as a trader is. Your job is to make money, not to lose it. If it's a market direction that makes you money, give it priority over your fundamental read.

maggy,

thank you, I am confident you'll find them useful.

BTW, I just realized where the title of article came from. Must have stuck in my memory:

"Our job as traders is to build and retain wealth, not to give it to others"

Lessons From the Trader Wizard by Bill Cara, page 11.

DavidV

How can it keep going up with such news, given that the economic situation is worsening every week??? Where else can new optimism come from???

I agree ! ! !

- GM loses $3.3 billion in 1st quarter, lowers sales outlook.

- L.A. Times .. Disappearing now: $6 trillion in housing wealth

-More $$$ needed Citigroup Increases Stock Offering to $4.5 Billion

-EU bails out German bank for $7.8 billion

i think they're buying stocks b/c the writing's on the wall for bonds? where else are you going to put your money to work?

Most of the moners on my watch list showing strength.
Adding SLW at 13.09

selling SLW/WGW/NOT.v...

Correction: Miners

adding to CAF...

Iran No Longer Using U.S. Dollar for Oil Transactions

2nd:
Betting against your trade makes me bit nervous :)
Gold and miners were selling off in anticipation of the fed pause for the last few days and my expectation/bet is that we get a releif rally for PM for a few days.

My skype isn't working.

Interesting currency move in the Australian dollar--FXA--up 1.36 or 1.45% since Fed announcement.

Always believe it's the second (sometimes third) move after Fed announcement. Immediately after announcment, VIX dropped as low as 19.69; now back above 20 @ 20.22

Whoops. Here's the link:

http://tinyurl.com/3nknpz
[Admin: replaced with TinyURL]

Here we go. :) It looks like the bulls tried to hold the market up after the Fed decision but they couldn't, and now we'll get a nice slide down. I have just shorted some XHB, since an end to rate cuts means a rise in bond yield, and XHB is historically trading opposite to bond yields (higher yields imply higher mortgage rates imply fewer people buying houses).

DavidV

Allen

We starting to make up lost $$$.

Interestingly, the commodity stocks are going up. Is the money flowing back from equities to commodities? On the one hand, I am tempted to sell my SLW and take profits (2nd_ave must know something if he did it :)), but on the other hand I am tempted to hold it as a hedge on my ultrashorts, especially since SLW appears to be much stronger today than the rest of the stocks.

2nd_ave: do you expect commodity stocks to go down tomorrow?

DavidV

Altius Minerals Corp

CALGARY, Alberta, April 30 (Reuters) - Newfoundland and Labrador Refining Corp, in the race to build North America's first new refinery in a generation, has received federal environmental approvals for it marine terminal, one of the firm's shareholders said on Wednesday.

Altius Minerals Corp (ALS.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), one of the backers of the proposed $4.6 billion refining project on Newfoundland's Placentia Bay, said in a release that John Baird, Canada's environment minister, had "announced a positive decision regarding the company's Southern Head marine terminal and associated works." ($1=$1.005 Canadian)

Brazilian stocks really moving check EWZ. Also GOL now over 16 and climbing . . daily RSI a hair under 70 at this moment.

EWZ and Brazil stocks have just exploded in the last 30 minutes.

Brazil: Investment grade by S&P.

a good read.

http://www.beearly.com/pdfFiles/Fekete29042008.pdf

Sorry I don't know how to do that tiny url thing.

wasnt the market up 150 pts just moments ago? or am i seeing things? That was quite some sell off!

tinyurl.com

It's very simple.

Craig

I've retained my CHSCP. Passed thru Minnesota right after Easter and dropped in at their Hdqs to look things over, even talked to the CEO. Executive Board is composed of former farmers for the most part. Things are booming for the farmers. Discussed their Brazilian operation, China. Liked the idea they recently hired a young manager proficent in foreign languages for one of their oversea operations.

Interestingly a number of the farmers in the copperative cashed out their stock this March to buy seed, equipment, etc., according to one of the staffers. Keeping this short.

Not a recomendation, illiquid, preferred issue, please doydd.

Seamus

do you have any information abbout PFACP?

ALOHA !!

moab ... Its not rocket science to figure out that those in power in Caracas or Washington DC will be glad to nationalize anything and everything if they believe it will convince "We The People" to keep them in power. Not even a dictator ... elected or otherwise ... feels warm and fuzzy when the citizenry are rioting in the streets! Fiscally speaking things will only get worse globally as revenues and jobs dry up in many countries facing huge debt issues.

I rate the best country risk in the World as Australia first with Canada second.

With regards to Mexico. I believe Mexico has the best country risk because along with the USA and Canada they are part of the triad trading block of NAFTA and the AMERO known as the North American Union.

Out of all the African countries I believe that Ghana has the lowest risk and is most mining friendly.

MOST LOW RISK MINING VENUE = WESTERN AUSTRALIA

David/(jogyp)- I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow...just selling miners on strength, that's all...

vinod

No, Not familiar with them . . see they're based out of NYC . . current dividend is @ 7.6% . . very illiquid, average volume is only 778 shares (yes, that's with no zeros)... total shares outstanding are 4.79 mil . . Noted somewhere traded issue is class A, which implies to me there's another class of shares which may control voting rights. Looks like a "widows and orphans" stock that someone would retain for years for possible fixed income.

CHS, Inc. is a Fortune 500 company. Again, not recomending, please doydd.

Caution: Very difficult to sell shares in illiquid stocks, especially one that trades only 778 shares a session.

Well 13000 and 1405 proved to be huge resistance today just like I thought. I would assume we'd start seeing some selling pressure soon as many people are sitting on some pretty hefty gains from The end of March.

With all the bad news piling up I'll bet many of them have their finger on the sell button. Maybe the ISM tomorrow will push them over the edge.

Rob.

GRZ:
Gold Reserve: Venezualan Ministry Of Environ Plans To Rescind Brisas Construction Permit

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/080430/gold_reserve_update.html?.v=1

Kaimu - I think you're right that Mexico is a very mining-friendly jurisdiction, but certain states their have problems.

Last night, Univision reported that Oaxaca has recently seen kidnapping of students and deployment of Federal Police in a dispute over control of the Law School. This on the heels of violent teacher strikes a few months ago which tried to remove the State Governor. Not mining related (which I believe is regulated at Federal level) but general turmoil could affect Continuum and other juniors with projects in the State of Oaxaca.

Peru also has certain regions with strong resistance to mining - for example in Central Peru where Doe Run's lead smelting operation has failed to meet its regultory commitment to stem major public health problems.

Argentina does some regulation at provincial level; certain provinces are very mining-friendly others not ...

Colombia has (diminishing) security problems (guerillas have been known to demand payments of mining cos.) but a very mining-friendly national govt.

The US has California, and Canada has Alberta ...

And thus it goes, outside of Australia.

Kaimu, Jock, how about Chile and Brazil? Lots of miners and resources there.

Assessment of Ecuador's regulatory outcomes with comment from yours truly:

http://tinyurl.com/5r955t

Si02 -

Chile, of course, is the world's largest copper producing country, has a long history of mining-friendly regulation, but has less tradition with other minerals. Haven't studied it closely, but would expect it to be a fine jurisdiction. Chile has the best overall economic performance in S.America, although its population (15M) and market are small.

Brazil (pop. 180M) is the emerging giant of S.America, and global powerhouse in agriculture, iron ore export, and increasingly in mining. I found 3 new juniors at PDAC from Brazil, not only from the historical mining state - which is named "Minas Gerais" or "General Mines" ... Brazil always surprises. Check this out, esp. the pix:

http://colossusminerals.com/main/?SerraPelada

I think you're right to raise these two countries. They're both on the "reasonable" end of the regulatory spectrum (which extends from Australia to Venezuela) and deserve more study.

link to the South China Morning Post article that mentions the possibility of CSRC (China Securities Regulatory Commission) approval of margin financing for retail investors:

http://tinyurl.com/4aj4zp

Rob- nice call today...

Since I am relatively new to the blog, didn't know if you folks knew about this guy's work:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/others/Henry.html

Who in the world owns all that credit card debt that has grown like topsy since the mortgage refinancing ATM has been closed?

The banks may own some, but like mortgage back securities much of the credit card debt has been packaged into asset (credit card obligations are called assets?) backed securities and sold off to hapless investors.

The good thing is that as many credit card debtors default there will be no hand wringing about evicting them from their homes. No big deal, just another monster of a bail out of?.

Was looking for a file on my computer and came across some "simple" rules for trading that I've collected over the years from Bill, Kirk, other posters and other sites, as well as from personal experience. Not going to include them all, but in view of some recent discussion and newbies, thought I'd post a few:

TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME ARE GOOD, SOME ARE BAD, AND THERE IS NOTHING YOU CAN DO OTHER THAN ACCEPT IT AND ACT ACCORDINGLY

IN A BULL MARKET, YOU CAN ONLY BE LONG OR NEUTRAL
IN A BEAR MARKET YOU CAN ONLY BE BEARISH OR NEUTRAL

MASS PSYCHOLOGY IS OFTEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN AN UNDERSTANDING OF ECONOMICS

YOU MAKE 90% OF YOUR MONEY IN 10% OF YOUR TIME

MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT

GO WHERE THE STRENGTH IS

2nd: Nice call the other day on CAF, woke up to a nice surprise today. Adding on pullbacks.

Speaking of mining friendly districts, another Canadian province is pulling some mining-unfriendly stuff. This news is a few days old but I don't recall seeing anything about it posted here:

British Columbia to close the door on uranium mining:

http://tinyurl.com/58kb4w

There's something similar going on out east: "Legislation has been passed that places a three year moratorium on uranium mining within the Nunatsiavut's self-governed Labrador Inuit Lands (LIL)."

In the case of BC, I find it ironic that such a tree-hugging policy took hold in a place where clear cutting of forests has been far too widespread.

Thumbing their noses at us.

New CLO, Collateralized Loan Obligations, are coming out from Lehman, Deutsch Bank, and Credit Suisse in order to sell the stuff they couldn’t sell in older issues. Guess they operate with the old P.T. Barnum business dictum that there is a fool born every minute - got snake oil?

“ ... Lehman Bros. Holdings Inc. is launching a collateralized loan obligation (CLO) that will buy a basket of takeover loans that have been mouldering on Lehman's balance sheet. The CLO, called Thalia European, will then offer bonds with various levels of risk (tranches) to investors. Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group have also revived the CLO structure to clear debt off their balance sheets... “

http://tinyurl.com/6qd8z9

Hey Jogy,

Were you in grz or kry?

Re: BC Anti-Nuclear Stance

Very backwards province anyways, used to live there. If anybody in BC had any brains, they would realize that thorium fission is a good alternative to uranium fission. Moreover, developments in fusion models which don't produce radiation are the next step. Any local interest standing in the way of nuclear development is condemning their own people to a life of dark ages and retrograde technology.

Energy needs to fulill the worlds demands can't nearly met with fossil fuels, yet B.C. sees no problem developing natural gas fields in pristine offshore areas.

Dr. Eric Lerner's lecture on focus fusion has a section on energy demand which fossil fuels could not hope to fill, which puts into question the whole debate of developing nations:

(1 hr. Google Video)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-1518007279479871760

shark - I had 1000 shares of KRY left, I sold today at .94

I sold most of them at around 2.55 last month and kept 1000 just in case the permit arrives.

GRZ was more nicer to me. I made a number of round trips on GRZ last year some decent gains.

Now I will tell you what you want to hear:)
I should have listened to you.

ProudPapa,

The clear cutting I think you are referring to in BC is the result of Pine Bark Beetle infestation. The Dept of Forestry has been very pro-active in allowing cuttings of infested areas. I've just returned from the AGM of my biggest holding (GWQ.V). It's located just east of Hwy 97 @ 108 mile road. There are vast areas of >50% pine loss and GWQ has been permitted to clear cut several those areas in hopes of saving some of the older stands of Douglass Firs. The Pine Bark Beetle was also responsible for some of the major fires in So Cal the past few years. It is a disaster for the entire forestry industry in both Canada & the US. Oh & BTW after attending the AGM & walking the property I've increased my holdings another 25%. There not much 43-101 data reported yet,(labs are months behind) but it's coming and very good, I've seen the cores, seen the trenching and the amount of Chalcopyrite & bornite I've seen is significant. The Geologists present, Dr. Bailey of GWQ, several from Imperial who attended the tour and one from the gov't responsible for the AirMag surveys all agree that GWQ will be one of the top producing mines in BC. Keep it on your radar and start your DD, it'll be worth it.

2nd_ave: why are you buying CAF, if I may ask? My FXP holding seems to be running against your CAF trade, which makes me very uncomfortable. :)

Do you think it will decouple from XLF (which is highly correlated with CAF and is possibly giving confidence to CAF investors) if XLF starts to collapse? Or do you think XLF will keep going up?

DavidV

2nd,
Thanks. I just had a feeling that we were repeating what happened last fall where we'd rally for a few weeks before the meeting and then sell the news.

Nothing else made sense to me.

Now we'll have to see if the people who went long after Bear start selling now or if there's more pumping to be had.

I'm starting to think we may see some selling pressure but I also think we have to see a stronger dollar so I'm not sure how those will reconcile.

That's why I'm all over the market I guess. Short Oil/Gold and also short COF/DIA. It would be nice to be able to resolve these opposing views.

Rob.

Bill's Goldcorp report

Ring that cash register, the Trader Wizard did it again! Proof of concept...

From Colin Twigg's report: "No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political economist."

~ Walter Bagehot.

I think my problem is not keeping my secret soul a secret. :>)

Starbucks Earnings Sink 21%

http://tinyurl.com/3u53bs

SBUX: Waiting for the pullback. Got in at 15.50 a few days back and got out Tuesday at 16.40.
Thought I might have blown it yesterday but I didn't think earnings would be good...and sure enough....