vinod- scaling in (small) DUG 29.69...

Buy 100 Shares of DUG
Order Number:D22BKQPT Details Filled at $29.61

In at 43.40 QID

Casino operators (MGM, LVS,WYNN,MPEL) looking very strong this morning.

Adding to WGW at 2.96

JogyP

I was told to buy LVS yesterday I did not pay
attentin

NWA- adding at 8.48...

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell in March; Prices Lower
``There still is an imbalance in the existing housing market that needs to be corrected through lower inventories and higher sales,'' said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, which correctly forecast the sales level. ``The market will remain out of balance this year and most of next. As long as the housing market remains weak we think the economy will remain weak as well.''

http://tinyurl.com/69e2dk

Stocks composed of $DJUSEN (moves XLI & DUG):
Exxon 27% Chevron 10% ConocoPhillips 6.7% Schlumberger 6.3% Occidental Petroleum 3.67% Devon 2.67% Rig Transocean 2.6% APA Apache 2.42% Haliburton 2% Marathon Oil 2%

All are at or very near 52 week highs. OXY, RIG, DVN, APA, HAL have smashed through previous 52 week highs. XOM is under 52 week high by about $0.60, CVX is under 52 week high by $2.00. COP is under by $6, SLB is under by $10

Buy 100 Shares of NWA
Order Number:D22BSVQC Details Filled at $8.2099
Buy 100 Shares of DAL
Order Number:D22BSWZS Details Filled at $7.48

2nd

i will be out by end of day
will not keep any overnight

WFC catching a bid...still working the long financials/short commodities thesis...

Re: POG

Really good discussion from Kitco bullion dealers about where gold prices are at considering supply/demand fundamentals, with Jon Nadler(kitco) & Victor Adair(MF Global):

http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/fbn/index.php/mediaplayer/277

Two details this commentary does not address is how liquidity may affect gold prices, and how investment in bullion is generally not popular. If liquidity measures increase, then likely gold prices will benefit.

If renewed investor demand into bullion because of macroecomnic factors, it would overwhelm the gold markets.

That is, if all investors placed a portion of their investments in gold such as 5%, this would have a radical effect on gold markets. As it stands, investor demand is relatively stable, supply is stable, but liquidity measures are increasing.

Any change, such as dollar depreciation, or increased investor demand, or restrictions on mining or central bank buying can change the outlook. Its not as if any of these are thoroughly unlikely. Certainly the Bank Of Canada or the Bank Of England are two standout candidates for replenishing their supplies.

So, once again the day to day business of the gold trade is humming along, but the macroeconomic factors in play favour higher prices.

F6

todays TA on the XAU,

im sensing a similar pattern occuring on the XGD posted yesterday: a faint upward drift pattern within a broader trend. support is being tested and this week's price action will clarify if said patterns hold or are violated to the downside.

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/2008/04/xau-1-year-chart.html

i used the RSI-7 as prescribed by Bill, and the
W%R as prescribed by Jim sinclair.
comments are always welcome.

hey chuck what keeps happening to my posts?

NWA- adding at 7.51...

out QID

Bill and Friends,

The Oilsands were my friends this morning, after a couple of very uneventful days for me.
I failed to buy Chenerie Energy and thereby missed out on a fabulous move. This one will be good when it starts going up again. Also, still watching Talbots for a bottom.

Shoutout to Mike_NYC! How ya doin' Holmes? Happy Earthday everybody! Go find some vegetation and set it on fire!

By the way did you hear Erin this morning saying that POT's expensive? She is such a coquetish, comely little morsel, along with her friend Trish. And Rebecca? Don't get my engine started...

almost time to get long again, a little more down please :)

I think we are closed to 1300 S&P
than 1400

taking SMN off for now at 31.02...

vinod- nice move on QID...

That's funny...last night Cramer said it was still cheap.

Here's his reasoning:

The price of the product is still cheap to the farmers in terms of the marginal gain in crop yield per unit of potash. So they actually have some room to increase prices and/or sales. (aside: how many businesses can say that these days?) In addition, he mentioned that there are just not that many sources available.

Me? I have no idea. I'm just regurgitating last nights Cramer.

Cramer or Erin? When it comes to managing money, I'll go with the ugly old guy over the hottie. But I got no real dog in this POT hunt right now.

"Watching Talbot's for a bottom?"

Sorry, but that's pretty funny.

I find myself watching Abercrombie for the same....

Anybody know what caused FXI to get creamed @ 11:50 EST? Just curious.

WGW at 2.82.
Is it falling knife or time to add more?

wgw -6.31%

WGI.TO -5.3

BUY wgw at 2.83

I go away for an hour and the euro is now at 1.60 and oil at 119.50. yikes

I'm starting to think that, with commodities reaching new all-time highs daily, and the dollar nearing the all-time low again that Bernacke will either have to raise rates by .25 or just hold steady on the 30th.

Maybe the G-7's message was to him and Paulson, saying it's enough and they can't cut anymore. We know he won't do if for the people. Who cares if they can't afford anything? But he may listen to the G-7, since they hold so much of our debt.

If he does cut, the dollar will hit a new all-time low and oil will likely start reaching towards 150 per barrel.

Rob.

With food shortages being reported around the world, I'm surprised that there hasn't been any governments announce that they'll reverse their misguided food for ethanol program.

Rob.

Capital One is offering 7&10 year CD's at 5.5%. This is the first time I've seen CD's being offered for over 5 years. Their rates are actually better than what National City Bank is offering. Could they possibley be in any more trouble than National City is?

7 year CDs? i don't know...if inflation starts to take off, i'd hate to be stuck in anything beyond a 6 month CD...

back into USD at 50.58 for a trade...

Re: Junior Precious Metals Focus

Eldorado Gold bid for Frontier Pacific cheaper per ounce than others
Posted: April 21, 2008, 10:30 AM by David Pett
Mining, Takeovers

Eldorado Gold Corp. stock is down just under 1% on Monday morning, after the company splashed out and made a bid for Frontier Pacific Mining Corp., owner of the Perama Hill gold and silver development project in Greece.

Eldorado's bid is valued at approximately 90¢ per share or $148-million. On a fully diluted basis, the offer would be valued at $157-million.

"The deal would increase Eldorado's resource base by approximately 13%, currently at 10.4 million ounces and if developed, Perama would add 130 thousand ounces per year, bringing Eldorado to the 500 thousand ounces per year mark," Credit Suisse analyst Anita Soni said in a note to clients.

"Additionally, it allows Eldorado to increase its foothold in Europe and diversifies Turkish exposure as it currently owns the Kisladag mine and Efemcukuru development property in Turkey."

Ms. Soni added that based on the fully diluted deal value of $157-million, she calculated a value of US$115 per ounce of measured and indicated resources, That compares to Northgate Minerals Corp.'s offer for Perseverence at US$229 per ounce and Newmont Mining's acquisition of Miramar at US$335 per ounce.

Eldorado shares were down 7¢ to $7.35 at 10:35 a.m. ET, while trading on Frontier Pacific shares were halted.

http://tinyurl.com/4hwbgx

Note: Some recent acquisitions by smaller companies were in the $40/oz. range, so prices for ounces in the ground have varied greatly.

ALOHA !!

When you import you put your entire lifestyle at risk. Try not to think of "imports" as strictly a global G7 thing only restricted to countries! If you buy power off a grid you "import". If you buy food from SafeWay you "import"! That's how I look at "imports" ... Then you have to look at other factors as to demographics that make such "imports" where you chose to live as more vulnerable or less vulnerable to shortages.

Yesterday I posted about food shortages in California. Here today you can read about Japan one of the G7 "rich" countries. Low and behold this article even mentions "self-suffciency" ... Japan has exceeded its government's "food budget"! Japanese shortages are similar to the shortages they experienced during WW2 ... If that is the case then just how advantageous is the concept of "globalization". Obviously we are now witnessing the downside! You can't depend on "globalization"! Shock of shocks ... it is always best to be "self-sufficient"! WOW ... I only learned that in Boy Scouts about 38 years ago! What was the motto then ... "BE PREPARED"? It looks as if none of the G7 leaders were ever Boy Scouts ...

The two main problems with the modern World is that there is too much money supply and too much "human supply"! Something has to give! Has the Pope approved condoms yet?

Read the last sentence in the entire article!

READ ON:
Japan’s Hunger Becomes a Dire Warning for Other Nations
By Justin Norrie

Mariko Watanabe admits she could have chosen a better time to take up baking. This week, when the Tokyo housewife visited her local Ito-Yokado supermarket to buy butter to make a cake, she found the shelves bare.

“I went to another supermarket, and then another, and there was no butter at those either. Everywhere I went there were notices saying Japan has run out of butter. I couldn’t believe it - this is the first time in my life I’ve wanted to try baking cakes and I can’t get any butter,” said the frustrated cook.

Japan’s acute butter shortage, which has confounded bakeries, restaurants and now families across the country, is the latest unforeseen result of the global agricultural commodities crisis.

A sharp increase in the cost of imported cattle feed and a decline in milk imports, both of which are typically provided in large part by Australia, have prevented dairy farmers from keeping pace with demand.

While soaring food prices have triggered rioting among the starving millions of the third world, in wealthy Japan they have forced a pampered population to contemplate the shocking possibility of a long-term - perhaps permanent - reduction in the quality and quantity of its food.

A 130% rise in the global cost of wheat in the past year, caused partly by surging demand from China and India and a huge injection of speculative funds into wheat futures, has forced the Government to hit flour millers with three rounds of stiff mark-ups. The latest - a 30% increase this month - has given rise to speculation that Japan, which relies on imports for 90% of its annual wheat consumption, is no longer on the brink of a food crisis, but has fallen off the cliff.

According to one government poll, 80% of Japanese are frightened about what the future holds for their food supply.

Last week, as the prices of wheat and barley continued their relentless climb, the Japanese Government discovered it had exhausted its ¥230 billion ($A2.37 billion) budget for the grains with two months remaining. It was forced to call on an emergency ¥55 billion reserve to ensure it could continue feeding the nation.

“This was the first time the Government has had to take such drastic action since the war,” said Akio Shibata, an expert on food imports, who warned the Agriculture Ministry two years ago that Japan would have to cut back drastically on its sophisticated diet if it did not become more self-sufficient.

In the wake of the decision this week by Kazakhstan, the world’s fifth biggest wheat exporter, to join Russia, Ukraine and Argentina in stopping exports to satisfy domestic demand, the situation in Japan is expected to worsen.

Bakeries, forced to increase prices by up to 30% in the past year, are warning that the trend will continue. Manufacturers of miso, a culinary staple, are preparing to pass on the bump in costs caused by the rising price of soybeans and cooking oil. And the nation’s largest brewer, Kirin, is lifting beer prices for the first time in almost two decades to account for the soaring cost of barley.

“In the past, Japan was a rich country with a powerful yen that could easily buy cheap imports such as wheat, corn and soybeans,” said Mr Shibata, who directs the Marubeni Research Institute in Tokyo. “But with enormous competition from the booming Chinese and Indian economies, that’s changed forever. You also need to take into account recent developments, including the damage to crops caused by drought and other disasters in exporting countries like Australia,” where the value of wheat exports has tumbled from $3.49 billion to $2.77 billion in the past three years.

The situation has been compounded by a surge in demand for bio-fuels such as ethanol, made from maize, encouraging farmers around the world to divert their efforts away from wheat and barley and into maize, further driving up prices.

Arguably Japan’s biggest concern, however, is its weakening ability to sustain its population with domestic produce. In 2006 the country’s self-sufficiency rate fell to 39%, according to the Agriculture Ministry. It was only the second time since the ministry began keeping records in 1960 that the population derived less than 40% of its daily calorie intake from domestically grown food.

Shinichi Shogenji, dean of the University of Tokyo’s graduate school of agricultural and life sciences, said Japan’s meat consumption had increased by 900% since 1955, in part because expanding incomes had enabled families to supplement the sparse national diet of rice, fish and miso soup with more Western-style food.

This trend, combined with rapid ageing and declining rural populations, had placed the country’s self-sufficiency at a perilously low level, Professor Shogenji said.

In view of recent predictions by Goldman Sachs analysts that commodities could experience “explosive rallies” in the next two years, many are wondering if Japan could become an example to other rich nations that have relied too much on foreign supplies to put food on their tables.END

WGW now 2.68 down 10%.
May be bad news leaking out? Tempted to add more but staying away for now.

vinod- hoping the headlines on oil prices are marking a (ST) top...

Added WGW @ 2.69

...talbots for a bottom...hehe.

yous guys have a dirty mind...I'm talking about a stock here.

2nd
DUG is always dog for me
I never made money on Dam DuG
this time I am going to hold it for a week

"Last week, as the prices of wheat and barley continued their relentless climb, the Japanese Government discovered it had exhausted its ¥230 billion ($A2.37 billion) budget for the grains with two months remaining. It was forced to call on an emergency ¥55 billion reserve to ensure it could continue feeding the nation."

Why is the government of Japan responsible for feeding the people? Isn't that the people's responsibility? Are most people in Japan on food stamps? Am I missing something here?

Rob.

Rob,

I'm only guessing, but maybe Japanese govt acts as an intermediary to international markets, maintaining its own stockpile from which it sells to local companies? Seems feasible given their reliance on imports and the importance of food availability.

Not entirely familiar with Canadian Wheat Board, but maybe the same kind of idea, except in that case its farmers selling to centralized entity rather than having individual farmers or small coops trying to get their grains to international markets...

In uaua 13.70

Re: WGW and the POG,

I have long ago concluded that an end to rate cuts will mean an end to this inflation-driven commodities bull. And with a new administration coming in and "freezing rates" or whatever other neo-Trotskyite nonsense Hillbama can cook up, and with rates as low as they already are, the writing seems to me to be on the wall for an end to the cuts, and then, an end to POG appreciation.

WGW has broken support and made a top of some sort, you'd probably call it a "triple top" but the name is unimportant. What is important is, the stock has broken support, which is now resistance, and a further decline is likely. I see $2.25 at least. How about you?

Check out the weekly commentary from John Hussman (a fund manager and a professor of economics), posted yesterday:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc080421.htm

Yesterday he said that the market is overbought in an unfavorable market climate, and today we see what he meant. It is also interesting to note that his medium-term view of equities, bonds, and commodities exactly corresponds to Bill's scenario: a drop in equities -> flight to safety and drop in bond yields -> rise in bond yields as investors realize the inflation is too high -> drop in commodities as bond yields rise (he expects the yields to start rising significantly at about the summer time). So I guess I'll focus my trading on shorting the market on small rallies as opposed to buying commodities on small pull-backs.

DavidV

ProudPapa,
I could see that. The government probably gets a better price buying wholesale. I'd hate to have to rely on the government for my food though. They'd end up feeding friends and family first and we'd all be left with the scraps.

Maybe that's what's happening in Japan.

Rob.

shark- LOL->that's right, vinod and i dump dogs/sell dead cats/try to catch bottoms every day...

Mexican oil production is dropping quickly and should put a floor under crude...

"Mexico's state-run oil company said Monday that oil production fell 7.8 percent to 2.91 million barrels a day in the first quarter as current reserves dwindle.

Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, has struggled with falling reserves, especially at its main Cantarell oil field, and lacks the money and expertise to launch new drilling projects. Pemex only has enough proven oil reserves to last nine years at current production rates."

http://tinyurl.com/4u5zup

nothing beats squeezing shorts, though...;)

brcm up $2 after-hours...;)

unfortunately, it appears USD doesn't trade AH?

Looks like YHOO beat - wonder what that'll do to the MrSoftee takeover bid.

Dollar Gold

Some Caraistas have been speculating the dollar has bottomed as Fed rate cutting will be over after the meeting next week. And gold is done appreciating.

IMO- there may be a false temporary dollar rally if the Fed signals a temporary end to its cutting of rates but there is no way the Fed will begin to raise rates anytime soon with the current credit enviroment. They will continue to create liquidity at the current pace which is about 17%. Negative interest rates will exist through the end of 2008 and into 2009. That is negative for the dollar and positive for gold.

The financial storm is not over and the dollar is vulnerable for further losses which could turn into a dollar crisis later this year as world holders continue to lose faith in the greenback. Any temporary rise in the dollar should produce a golden buying opportunity in the shiny metal and those companies producing who produce it.

Gold has no counterparty risk....everything else does.

That's my view and I'm stickin to it.

ALOHA !!

Did anyone here get in on the IPI IPO? A 58% pop on the first day with tons of demand!

I am glad to see the first of what I am sure will be many more commodity related IPOs to come. I am tired of seeing debt laden bank and services making all the BIG MONEY! The tide is turning ...

kaimu: yesterday you said commidities will not be like the 80s. COuld you expand on that? The commodity high was '81 I think. I have been fully expecting a return of oil/gold/crb to new highs in the coming 2-3 year timeframe. I'm wondering if I misread your quote. Thanks

Any ideas how to trade the $SSEC Shanghai Composite? It looks like it's making a turn. FXI does not track well. Is it on a Buy Alert?

$SSEC Shanghai Composite?

Take a look at CAF.

Thanks for CAF. I plugged it in with $SSEC, but doesn't seem to be tracking well lately. http://tinyurl.com/63kvpr

Charlie Maxwell video over at Bloomberg. Sorry, they do not seem to provide url link anymore. Scroll down to portfolio advisor section.

ALOHA !!

JRPauley ... it was in reference to the article about the farmland prices bust in the 1980s.

Here is the statement from the article ... "Flinchbaugh and others says the U.S. agricultural economy bears a striking resemblance to that seen in the mid-1970s, when a seemingly insatiable demand for U.S. crops drove up land values and farmers took advantage of their soaring equity to increase debt.

When U.S. policy changed and demand suddenly dropped at a time of rapidly rising interest rates, land values and farm income plunged, pressuring thousands of farmers to sell out and leading to the failure of nearly 300 agricultural banks."END

There are crucial financial disconnects now that did not exist in the 1980s. Add in an extra couple billion people and the need for expanded food supplies will continue. Only a population decline due to bird flu or some pandemic wil cure that. Money supply certainly shows no signs of abating!

All I meant was you cannot compare 1980s prices to now. We are in uncharted territory. We are now witnessing the collapse of the first fiat based World Reserve Currency. All past World Reserve Currency collapses, like the British Pound, were still under a gold standard.

So you did not misread since I also fully expect new highs in oil/gold/crb over the next 2-3 years and beyond.

ALOHA !!

Are gas prices really that high? Inflation adjusted we are even with prices in 1980!

Link: http://zfacts.com/p/35.html

Look how Wars effect gas prices. Wars are inflationary not deflationary. Wars are about the most destructive and least productive activity governments can engage in!

ALOHA !!

Here was a prediction from the Talking Heads guru Mr. Larry Kudlow back in 2004. If you listened to him you lost tons of money! You lost DOUBLE, because you lost betting the USDX would go up and you lost out buying gold on its way up! Why is this guy still on TV?

REA ON:
Cunning Realist 4/22/2008

That Worked Out Well

Larry Kudlow, National Review, 11/16/04:

With the reelection of President George W. Bush, cowboy capitalism will continue and then some. Pro-growth policies on tax reform, Social Security reform, tort reform, and energy reform will all keep the capital in capitalism. Watch the U.S economy continue to outperform the other large industrial countries by a wide margin, as it has since Reagan.

Which brings us back to the dollar. In order to get a piece of Bush’s ownership-society vision, foreign investors are going to have to buy dollars, not sell them. ...

In narrower terms, the current guardian of dollar value is Maestro Alan Greenspan. He has spent a distinguished career at the Fed protecting greenback purchasing power and holding down domestic inflation. For those proliferating dollar bears on Wall Street, including a number of supply-siders who have turned into inflationist worrywarts, do you really think Greenspan is about to reverse his long-held convictions? Only a few years ago the rap against Sir Alan was deflation. Having corrected that mistake, do you really think he’s embarked on a massive inflation? Highly doubtful. ...

...the Fed will gradually remove the excess dollars they appropriately created following the dreadful 9/11 attacks on the U.S. As they remove this emergency liquidity and as pro-growth tax cuts are made permanent in Bush’s second-term tax-reform program, the future value of the U.S. dollar is likely to rise, not fall. ...

The liberal chattering pundits of the old established media will continue to prattle on about budget deficits, trade deficits, a weak dollar, higher inflation, and a jobless recovery. But America’s economic future is vastly more optimistic than these negativists would have us believe. Both politics and policy are pointing toward non-inflationary prosperity. The U.S. dollar will share in this bounty.END

The Good Stuff?

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/04/good-stuff.html

Larry Kudlow, would the real president please stand up!!

Good Morning.

One small change to the Cara 100 Ratings:

ECA - Target Price Raised from $78 to $82 @ Lehman Bros.

---------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.