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March 1, 2008
Week in Review #9 (2008-03-01)
A week ago I opined: “Bears (being killed) on Friday; Bulls next week. It’s not right such capital slaughtering moves can be orchestrated by rumor and innuendo. This isn’t entertainment; for that we have casinos. The capital market is supposed to be the place where value is priced, and that process has become secondary to the desperate gang in charge.”
Yes, this week the Bulls got killed. At least, what happened from the outset on Friday wasn’t pretty.
Not unsurprisingly, the previous Friday’s afternoon market intervention by a TV “personality” never panned out as per the man’s rumor and innuendo. That was just more proof of concept that regulators have to put the hammer down on financial media that no longer reports the facts, but contrives stories that may be entertaining, but at the same time can cost trillions of dollars as was the case in this example.
Let’s follow the trajectory of that +230 point rocket in the DJIA last Friday, as happened minutes before the close. This week, the DJIA dropped from 12381 to 12226. The Nasdaq dropped from 1353 to 1330. This were not startling moves week over week, but the damage on Friday was between -2.5 pct and -2.7 pct.
This week, 21 of the 30 Dow stocks dropped, including ten by at least -2.38 pct and eight by -3.32 pct or more. More importantly, the previous week ending rumor and innuendo directly affected the financials. This week, the huge loser was the Financial sector (XLF -4.9 pct).
Last week’s pump became this week’s dump. Is anybody surprised?
Did I not say, this incident was “proof of concept” in the making? The notion of course is that traders were herded and slaughtered.
Last week I explained:
”…in a famine, which is the case at HB&B today, the equity market is like the Serengeti Plains of Africa. Predators kill anything in sight.As I see it, there is little difference between the zebra or wildebeest and the market short-sellers. The Maasai and lion population who, like HB&B traders, need to eat and have the tools to do so.
On Friday this week in the equity market, the Bears were herded and slaughtered. Next week it may be the Bulls. Meanwhile the famine (ie, the liquidity crisis) will worsen. Bids will drop. Hot money will continue to flood into and out of so-called “safe-havens”.
At the end of the day, conditions will change; the predators will be sated – at least those (at HB&B and their friends) who survive the carnage, because they too can and do fall victim to famine.
The market is a natural phenomenon. That’s true because we are the market, driven by our instincts and emotions.
Some of us are just a little better at it, that’s all.
What some of us see today “is a horrible liquidity crunch coming the market's way as Humungous Bank & Broker works through its deep problems. The owners of capital should not treat this lightly.” I wrote that last week.
Given that interest rates do not balloon, the sub-prime fiasco at HB&B is mostly under control at this point... But, the next problem is going to be more difficult to resolve. The Treasury Secretary will find it politically impossible to run up the 1-800-HELP flag for owners of real estate that fall into the alt-A and Prime rate crowd who cannot make their payments because they too speculated on price increases by purchasing with ARM instruments. Moreover, these typically successful business people did not figure on the prospects of economic recession (or worse), and now they already cannot get the rents they need to keep up the debt service… 1-800-HELP for the successful, working, middle-class of America: Think about it.”
Two weeks ago, I wrote:
(WIR #7 Feb. 17) Smart traders are waiting for the massive liquidity crunch that must happen to bring the spending back into line with the savings and income needed to pay for it, with commodity prices under control…I hardly think that the S&P 500 at 1350 or the DJIA at 12348 or Nasdaq Composite at 2322 can stand up to the pressures of “the price of a barrel of crude at $100, $110, $125… or an ounce of platinum at $2100, $2200, $2500…” Remember, prices are merely bids. The liquidity crunch happens when bids are withdrawn, as we saw starting in 2005 as house prices reached a very high level… To parody the dim-witted TV advertising that runs day and night for one of Canada’s largest banks, “We are not as rich as we think we are.” In fact, a lot of us in six months are going to be that much poorer… I wonder if that bank will refrain from margin calls.” (LOL)
Long-time investors in Canada’s banks, like BMO and CIBC, are finding it difficult to hold and prosper. When the managers of those banks were ripping off shareholders with their humungous profit bonuses, “mum” was the word. Now that we’re discovering the profits of HB&B were not so “rich”, do you think those fortunate souls will kick a little back into the kitty? (LOL) The shareholders would like to know.
Global Economics Review
This will be the biggest week of the month, other than the March 18th FOMC report, for US Econ data to consider.
US Economic Calendar for next week.
It is important to review economics reports published this past week on the US economy that continues to worsen. As I say, the positive news is now infrequent.
(Published in previous WIRs) Whether the case is negative or very slow real economic growth, the fact is that global inflation is now in the 3- and 4-pct range by even the most positively-biased calculations, so investment returns from dividends and short-term debt instruments and money market funds is clearly negative. Moreover, as equity prices are falling, the total returns from most stocks are negative. In summary, wealth is being destroyed by the trillions, month after month. One of the reasons is that the economy is in a downswing.
Along with many weekly reports, the big monthly reports that arrived this week were all negative, as follows. Going forward, I don’t see major changes to the landscape.
US Existing Home Sales for January.
US Producer Price Index for January, which is a forerunner of consumer inflation.
US Consumer Confidence for February by the Conference Board.
US Durable Goods Orders for January.
US New Home Sales for January.
US Personal Income and Spending Data for January.
So much for last week. Let’s look ahead.
US Construction spending for January, which is a forerunner of consumer inflation.
US Motor Vehicle Sales for February .
The Bank of Canada monetary policy report .
US Productivity and Costs report for February.
US Personal Income and Spending Data for 4Q2007 revised figures.
US Durable and Non-durable Goods Factor Orders for January.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing Data for February.
US Pending Home Sales Data for January.
In addition, on Thursday morning, the central bankers of the UK and Europe will deliver their monetary policy decision. Along with the Bank of Canada’s decision on Tuesday, there could be decisions to hold the line on rate cutting, which would weaken the $USD temporarily. But if the Fed follows with the same decision on March 18, that would be a signal that the precious metals and oil price rally is over and that the $USD would begin to strengthen.
That’s not to say what is likely to happen. It is still early in the month. But, if there seems to be extra spin that inflation is over the top and the economy likely to recover soon after the US government hand-outs in June (it won’t, but it’s the spin you need to look for), then the Fed could be positioned as an inflation-fighter (hahaha), with no rate cut in the cards. Cuts in the rates by Canada, the UK and Europe would help out the $USD, but also keep the fire under the inflation pot.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.
“Jock” reports:
THIS WEEK closed with 4 GREEN industry (chemicals, energy, mining, and food/beverage) and 2 RED’s (drugs, health services) compared to last week's 3 green and 4 Red.This week’s “market tenor” of 2 net GREEN was a gain of 3 industries vs. last week. Drugs have been RED for 9 of the past 10 weeks!
MACD-H rose on all industries but tobacco, drugs, and health services. Prices over the week rose in 19 industries and fell in 12.
My formula for assessing Cara100's is busted, and there’s no time to fix it. Perhaps Jeff will supply this.
[Jeff: My algorithm has some slight differences from Jock's, but I show I net of 22 green versus 2 net green last week, showing continuing improvement over the last few weeks -- see chart below.]
Ticker Name Score
-5wksScore
-4wksScore
-3wksScore
-2wksScore
-1wksScore
-0wksABB ABB Ltd. -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 ABV COMP DE BEBA AM ADS -2 +0 +2 +2 +2 +2 ABX Barrick Gold Corp. +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 +2 ADBE Adobe Systems Inc. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 AET Aetna Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 +2 ATVI Activision Inc. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 BA Boeing Co. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. +2 +2 +0 +0 -2 -2 BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 +2 BC Brunswick Corp. +0 +2 +0 +0 -2 -2 BDK Black & Decker Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 BHP BHP Billiton Ltd. -2 +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 CCJ Cameco Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +2 CCL Carnival Corp. +0 +2 -2 +0 +0 -2 CEO CNOOC Ltd. -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 +2 CHA China Telecom Corp. Ltd. -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 -2 CHL China Mobile Limited -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. -2 +2 +2 +2 +0 -2 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. +0 +2 -2 -2 +2 -2 CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. -2 +0 +0 +2 +2 +0 CVX Chevron Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +2 DB Deutsche Bank AG -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 DELL Dell Inc. +0 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 DEO Diageo plc -2 -2 -2 +2 +0 +0 DIS Walt Disney Co. -2 +0 +2 +2 +2 +2 DOW Dow Chemical Co. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 DNA Genentech Inc. +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 +2 ECA EnCana Corp. -2 +0 -2 +2 +2 +2 ERJ EMBRAER - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronutica S.A. -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 +0 ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 EXC Exelon Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 -2 GE General Electric Co. -2 +0 -2 +0 +0 +0 GFI Gold Fields Ltd. +2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 GG Goldcorp Inc. +2 +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 GGB Gerdau S.A. -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 +2 GOL GOL Linhas Areas Inteligentes S.A. -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 -2 GOOG Google Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 GRMN Garmin Ltd. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -2 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 GSK Glaxosmithkline plc -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 HBC HSBC HLDGS PLC ADS +0 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 HDB HDFC Bank Ltd. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. +0 +2 +0 +0 +0 -2 IBN ICICI Bank Ltd. -2 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 IMO Imperial Oil Ltd. -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 +2 INFY Infosys Technologies Ltd. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 INTC Intel Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 JCP J. C. Penney Company, Inc +0 +2 +2 +0 +2 +0 JNJ Johnson & Johnson -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 KB Kookmin Bank +0 +0 -2 -2 +0 +0 KO Coca-Cola Co. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 KSS Kohl's Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 LEH Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. +0 +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 LLTC Linear Technology Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 MBT Mobile Telesystems OJSC -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 MFC Manulife Financial Corporation -2 +0 -2 +0 +0 +2 MICC Millicom International Cellular SA -2 +0 -2 +2 +2 +2 NKE Nike Inc. -2 +0 +0 +2 +0 -2 NOK Nokia Corp. +0 +2 -2 +0 +2 +0 NTES Netease.com Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 NUE Nucor Corp. +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 ORCL Oracle Corp. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 OXPS optionsXpress Holdings, Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 PAYX Paychex Inc. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 +0 PDA Perdigao S.A. -2 -2 +0 +2 +2 +2 PG Procter & Gamble Co. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 PTR PetroChina Co. Ltd. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 QCOM QUALCOMM Inc. +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 RIO COMPANHIA VALE ADS -2 +0 +0 +2 +2 +2 RIMM Research In Motion Ltd. -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 +2 RY Royal Bank of Canada +0 +0 +2 +0 +0 +0 SBUX Starbucks Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 SLW Silver Wheaton Corp. +0 -2 -2 -2 +2 +2 SNDK SanDisk Corp. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 STO StatoilHydro ASA -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 +2 SU Suncor Energy Inc. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +2 SWK Stanley Works +0 +2 +0 +2 +2 +0 TCK Teck Cominco Ltd. -2 +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 TEF Telefonica SA -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 TGP Teekay LNG Partners LP. -2 -2 +2 +2 +2 +0 TGT Target Corp. +0 +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 TM Toyota Motor Corp. -2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 TOT Total SA -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 TS Tenaris SA -2 +0 -2 +0 +0 +2 TT Trane Inc +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 UBS UBS AG +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 UTX United Technologies Corp. -2 +0 -2 +0 +0 -2 VCP Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A. -2 +2 +0 +2 +2 +2 VIP Vimpel-Communications -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 -2 WAG Walgreen Co. +0 +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 WBK Westpac Banking Corp. -2 +0 -2 -2 -2 +0 WFMI Whole Foods Market Inc. +0 +0 +0 +2 -2 -2 WHR Whirlpool Corp. +0 +2 +2 +2 +2 +0 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 +0 YHOO Yahoo! Inc. -2 -2 +2 +2 +2 +2 Summary: (+2/-2/other) 7/67/26 18/47/35 11/58/31 26/24/50 38/16/46 31/26/43 Net: (+2)-(-2) -60 -29 -47 +2 +22 +5 All the major US stock indices stayed NEUTRAL. The Bombay and Shanghai composites were RED. The US$ index slid from neutral to RED, while the CRB index stayed GREEN.
In fact, CRB index leapt 3.72% to an all-time high for my chart (my data goes back to 1992).
GOLD stocks stayed neutral, while SILVER stocks moved from RED to GREEN.
BOTTOM LINE: The “ market tenor” crossed into positive territory - the 2nd week of advance, +3 vrs. +16 last week.
Silver flipped from RED to GREEN, while GOLD stocks stayed neutral. Some believe that when silver advances vrs. Gold, speculative money is flowing into the market. (This is because central banks don’t hold silver, and therefore can’t act to dampen the price as they can with gold.)
1 week’s change in precious metals doesn’t tell much, but does bear watching.
Jock
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA stockcharts.com chart
This week, for the Dow 30 stocks: 9 were up, 21 down. The damage was done on Friday as Dow component AIG started off the session with a $5 billion reported loss, and the economic data was terrible as well.
DJIA dropped -115 points from 12381 to 12266.39. Both the S&P 50 and Nasdaq Composite were knocked down further, percentage wise.
A week ago, the biggest winners in the Dow 30 included some banks and companies that have a huge financial component. AIG (+7.4 pct W/W) and JPM (+3.1 pct) had been winners, but then I opined: “I believe it was a short-covering rally late Friday.”
The biggest losers this week were those financial stocks that were pumped right before the horrendous AIG report and the take-down of the whole sector.
In the Dow 30, the financials: JP Morgan (JPM -7.47 pct), Bank of America (BAC -6.71 pct), American Express (AXP -6.13 pct), Citigroup (C -5.61 pct) and AIG (AIG) -4.13 pct) were trashed.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
The Nasdaq Composite dropped from 2321.8 to 2303.4 to 2271.5 this week. Nothing seems to be working, although on the strength of an early in the week move, largely on the promise of a share buy-back, IBM gained +5.36 pct W/W.
Several weeks ago I wrote in this space, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY” I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other, and you know which way I was indicating.
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
Two weeks ago, I added charts for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as well as put SPY into the expanded sector performance tables so that you can see how each sector is doing relative to the industry benchmark.
This week SPY futures lost -1.37 pct on the week to close at 133.76. The S&P 500 closed at 1330.63.
Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SPY Monthly data:
SPY Weekly data:
SPY Daily data:
The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
In this space two weeks ago, in discussing liquidity, I commented,
“… stagflation in the 1970’s took equities through a grinding 1973-74 bearish period and another milder one in 1978. At the end of the decade, however, the liquidity that had to be pumped into the system (similar to today) pushed inflation higher and interest rates soaring.But in today’s reality, soaring rates in the next two years would cause a run on mortgage foreclosures, evictions, property tear-downs and financial service company failures. So, the interventionists are likely to stay the course with more Northern Rock-type deals to come.
That is not the picture of a capital market ready to snap back to health. Good health will return as and when the dubious assets on the books of banks and investors have been written off to their realistic economic value. The prospects of that, as I say, will take time.
In the past couple weeks, the house mortgage rates have lifted, going against the grain of bond yields that are falling quickly as traders pour into risk-free US Treasuries.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
Individual Sector ETF Review
A week ago I wrote, “There are almost seven billion people living on this planet. So how is that capital market prices can be jerked around on rumor and innuendo from an individual TV “personality” to skyrocket +1.83 pct, some $2 trillion, in 30 minutes?... Same old, same old, nonsense… Do I think the equity market turned bullish at 3:00pm ET Friday in New York? Could have happened, I suppose; but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for that outcome.”
There was no government bail-out to the bond insurers on Monday or even Tuesday, as “reported” in advance. (LOL) As it became obvious that insurers like AIG were in deep doo-doo, traders, by Friday, decided to bail out themselves. The Financials plunged -3.32 pct on Friday, which led to a loss W/W of -4.85 pct.
This coming week, bullish traders will be staring down the barrel of the econ gun. There is a lot of heavy-duty reports to come.
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:
XLE Weekly data:
XLE Daily data:
The Energy sector ETF (XLE) started on a very strong note, but then got crushed -3.40 pct on Friday, closing the week with the only gain (+1.54 pct) of any of the ten sectors.
Speculators pumped the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil by +3.88/bbl to 102.69, which managed to hold its ground on Friday. But XLE traders decided to take profits in the stocks any way.
With more problems this week from Venezuela and Nigeria, Canada’s energy industry was lit up. By far the big winners among the ten Cara 100 Energy stocks were Canada’s ECA (+7.4 pct), SU (+6.7 pct), and IMO (+6.0 pct).
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
XLB Daily data:
Basic Materials (XLB -0.94 pct W/W) was crushed -3.07 pct on Friday, despite a USD that hardly moved on the day.
Regarding the metals and precious metals, a week ago I pointed out, once again, the parabola that defines these charts. That’s another way of saying INFLATION. HIGHER RATES OR MASSIVE RECESSION TO COME!! TAKE YOUR PICK.
I think the two weeks into the March 18 monetary decision of the FOMC will decide the near-term outlook for precious metal prices. I think they are headed down for a couple months as the $USD strengthens. Later, of course, is a different matter because I think, following the extreme volatility, there will be more upside from even the lofty prices of today.
This week, TCK +10.3 pct, TS +7.4 pct, EGO +15.7 pct, LIHR +7.4 pct, KGC +7.3 pct, and GG/G up +10 pct Monday through Thursday and then I put out a negative report. (LOL) GG/G dropped -3.4 pct on Friday.
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:
XLI Weekly data:
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLI (Industrials) lost -1.33 pct W/W, closing at 36.42. XLI dropped -2.28 pct on Friday.
ABB gained +4.8 pct after being up +3.9 pct the week before. FLR jumped +5.6 pct. TXT dropped -4.6 pct. FDX and UPS were down -1.1 pct and -2.3 pct respectively.
Last week, I wrote: “A week ago, the aircraft manufacturers had a good one with BA +6.9 pct … taking off. This week the market grounded them again: BA -2.6 pct and those jet engines of GE -2.4 pct.” I suppose there was wind of Northrup Grumman’s (NOC) $40 billion win of the Air Force contract to replace tanker planes.
I wonder if the votes in California and the Governor Schwarzenegger’s grandstanding (ie, endoresent) for McCain had an iota of involvement here.
Yes, I think political chips get called, but I’m not going to waste time thinking about it. If you’re not in the room, you’re not in the deal. We got our own stuff to worry about.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:
XLY Weekly data:
XLY Daily data:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was crushed -2.99 pct on Friday, taking it down -2.78 pct on the week.
The Cara 100 winner was BDK (+2.8 pct), while there were a bunch of losers: CCL (-6.0 pct), JCP (-5.3 pct), and WHR and EBAY (-4.9 pct).
Higher Crude Oil prices have moved to higher prices at the fuel pump, which is going to hurt the consumer spending. The economic report that was published this week showed that inflation has accounted for all the increase in spending for December and January. Does anybody believe that February or March will be any different?
At $102 this week, the Crude Oil price hit a +100 pct gain over the price ($51) of a year ago January. Thirteen months… $51 to $102… man, that’s inflation.
Who would have thought, just a few years ago, that Americans would have been pushing their shopping cart down the yellow brick road to… a warehouse?
Tell me, how do these Big Box stores look any different than the old Soviet Russian GUM department stores, other than all the goods on the shelves that nobody seems to have the money to buy.
Well, buying and paying for it are two different stories. Depends on whether you are the government or Mom & Pop.
"Wait, what did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gasoline?" Bush responded to a reporter who said some analysts expect prices to soon climb that high. "That's interesting. I hadn't heard that. . . . I know it's high now."
The price of Crude Oil set another record Thursday, but I guess the President doesn’t get out of the limousine much to smell the fumes. (LOL)
You know, given the decision to fight a war in the Middle East, I don’t think the President can really do much about the cost of oil. Congress wants theirs too, so spending just keeps going higher and higher. Who can pay? …Certainly not Mom & Pop. I guess their grandchildren get stuck with the tab. Again.
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |