I, for one, don’t buy the hype I witnessed (Monday) on Financial Entertainment Television. That was a reality show episode where the Street team was falling all over themselves in hysterics. On Bloomberg, there was even one young woman, who I cannot fathom carried an ounce of credibility in any boardroom that matters outside of Wall Street, absolutely gushing, “This is such a good news day. Everything is good.” …I am embarrassed for Bloomberg.

Maybe you recall the movie.

”Guido (Roberto Benigni), a clever Jewish-Italian waiter, successfully courts Dora (Nicoletta Braschi), a beautiful local woman. His life, however, is turned upside down a few years later when he, Dora, and their young son, Giosué (Giorgio Cantarini), are sent to a Nazi concentration camp. Refusing to give up hope, Guido tries to protect his son's innocence by pretending that their imprisonment is just an elaborate game, with the grand prize being a tank.”

It is time to face the reality: this is a Bear market and the US, European and Japanese economies are in Stagflation. Our wealth, not our innocence, needs protection.

This week there were only two sectors that “popped” with significant moves to the upside. That can be explained by the realization the Fed was backing Wall Street by putting up billions of dollars of the People’s capital, surely a defeat for fiat currency if we have ever seen one. For a couple days, at the start of the week, commodity prices soared. But by week’s end, the reality of Bears and stagflating economies had set in.

On Friday, everything came crashing down. The US equity market indexes dropped an average -1.0%. Commodities ($CRB -1.4%), Crude Oil ($WTIC -1.8%), Precious Metals ($GOLD -1.8%, $SILVER -3.3%) and Base Metals ($COPPER -1.1%) all fell on Friday. Yields on US Treasuries also dropped as liquidity withdrawals hit the equity and commodity markets.

Apparently there will be no tank for Giosué; but you knew that already.

If you paid close attention to the wonderful editorial of Don Coxe this week, you can almost hear the clowns crying. The jig of Wall Street is over and done. The music has stopped.

Sure, the handful of people who run these banks and broker-dealers can blame anyone and everyone; and the Friend they sent to Washington, Henry Paulson, can speak for a lame duck Administration as these bankers try to take control of the People’s treasury, but I don’t think either Congress or the People are listening.

In fact Congress now is demanding records and may soon commence criminal action on several fronts. The People who have lost in the aggregate unimaginable trillions have started class-action lawsuits.

Life may not always be beautiful, but it sure is interesting.

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Global Economics Review

The US economy probably went recessive in December. The weight of the evidence, ie, the economic data, has been piling up and can no longer be denied.

Here are the key US economic reports and the Econoday analysis from last week.

US Existing Home Sales for February

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey for March

US Durable Goods Orders for February

US New Home Sales for February

Final revision to 4Q US GDP and GDP Price Index

US weekly report of New Unemployment Claims

US Personal Income vs Spending data for February

US Consumer Sentiment Survey of U Michigan for March

So much for last week. Let’s look ahead.

Here is next week’s economic calendar:

US Economic Calendar.

US Motor Vehicle Sales Report for March

US Manufacturing Conditions Report of the ISM for March

US Construction Spending for February

US Corporate Layoffs Announced in March

The ADP US National Employment Report for March

US Durable and Non-Durable Factory Orders Data for February

US Non-Manufacturing Business Survey for March

US Dept of Labor Jobs Report for March

The economic issues that Americans are struggling with are now global in scope.

…the economies of Europe and Japan are almost as bad off as the US and are worsening week by week. I fully expect these economies to go into recession as well, which means that significantly more than 50 pct of the global economy will be in recession at the same time.

The bad news gets worse because, as strong as the growth is in the emerging BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), these markets are not unaffected by the others. I expect serious declines in the BRIC economic growth rates, and significant increases in their inflation rates, this year.

Weekly International Economic Report .

As I say, positive economic news is now infrequent, and the same is happening around the world.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

“Jock” is on sabbatical for a few weeks, visiting with his family the Renaissance city of Florence Italy.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

For this post-holiday week, 20 of the Dow 30 stocks were up, 10 down.

But this week was different than the past couple in that there was a lot of selling on Friday, the worst of it being Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financial (XLF) sectors and the semi-conductor industry. Without Energy and Basic Material, this week would have been a clear disaster for the Bulls, but even they must fear the fall-out of such high commodity prices.

By the end of the week, the DJIA and S&P 500 stocks were down -1.07% and -1.17% respectively.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 gained +0.14% and +0.26% respectively, but even these indexes sold down on Friday, -0.86% and -1.33% respectively.

As I say, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY” I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

This week SPY futures dropped -0.39% from 132.08 to 131.56 even though the S&P 500 dropped -1.17% from 1329.5 to 1315.2. That differential might be setting up a small rally from an over-sold position on Monday. We’ll have to watch Asia-Pacific and Europe in the early hours.

Here’s the SPY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SPY Monthly data:

SPY Weekly data:

SPY Daily data:

The tables I now show are for eleven GICS Sector Index Funds (ETF’s), including two for Technology (XLK and SMH), for a total of ten GICS sectors. They cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLB	40.29	-0.18	-0.44%	5.20%	-2.52%	-4.71%	-2.45%	-4.07%	-4.34%	6.90%
XLE	73.53	-0.19	-0.26%	3.84%	-3.29%	-6.60%	-7.51%	-8.44%	-1.88%	21.06%
XLP	27.90	0.02	0.07%	1.01%	1.82%	0.90%	-1.73%	-3.89%	-0.14%	5.56%
XLI	36.84	-0.08	-0.22%	0.57%	0.49%	-1.15%	-4.34%	-6.38%	-10.15%	3.48%
XLU	37.63	-0.45	-1.18%	0.48%	-1.67%	-2.89%	-10.60%	-12.33%	-5.76%	-5.64%
IYZ	23.07	-0.21	-0.90%	0.13%	1.76%	-5.41%	-20.91%	-22.71%	-31.85%	-25.15%
XLK	22.41	-0.07	-0.31%	0.09%	0.81%	-0.88%	-14.20%	-16.78%	-17.00%	-3.98%
IYH	62.85	-0.41	-0.65%	-0.38%	0.19%	-5.53%	-10.34%	-11.79%	-11.22%	-5.77%
SPY	131.56	-1.22	-0.92%	-0.39%	-0.07%	-3.87%	-9.23%	-10.69%	-13.78%	-7.23%
SMH	28.53	-0.37	-1.28%	-1.93%	-2.66%	-3.12%	-9.02%	-12.57%	-25.51%	-15.49%
XLY	30.53	-0.60	-1.93%	-2.30%	-0.07%	-4.95%	-5.19%	-7.29%	-16.88%	-19.23%
XLF	24.65	-0.48	-1.91%	-6.06%	-0.24%	-7.92%	-13.08%	-14.59%	-27.92%	-30.27%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. SPY XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF XLK SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

This week, there were 4 sectors (5 ETF’s) above SPY and 6 below. The worst performers were IYZ, IYH and XLF. The best were XLB, XLE and XLI.

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

A week earlier, the Energy sector (XLE) was crushed (-6.87%), just like Basic Materials (-7.33% W/W), probably because the failure of Bear Stearns and the worries over a possible MF Global failure had caused commodities to be sold. Moreover the Chicago exchanges increased their margin requirements for ag commodities, and I feel they would have done the same for energy and metals except that hedge funds would have taken their business elsewhere.

So, pending more bank failures, the market was over-sold in this area, which set up a couple days price recovery at the start of the week. However, by week’s end, traders were back to contemplating bad things happening on Wall Street, regardless of the antics of Mr. Paulson and Friends.

XLB did manage a W/W gain of 3.84% to close at 73.53.

Largely from what occurred early in the week, the $USD dropped -$1.57 this week, so I am not surprised that Crude Oil ($WTIC) gained +3.71% W/W. That should have been enough to drive the price of Exxon and Chevron much higher, but those stocks gained just +0.26% and +1.55% respectively W/W, and were not strong at all on Friday where XOM dropped -1.14%.

The winners in the energy sector this week were the stocks of the foreign oil producers and oilfield services and drilling companies: CNOOC (CEO +11.6%), Schlumberger (SLB +6.2%) and Statoil (STO +6.1%).

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CEO	150.42	6.46	4.49%	11.63%	-8.97%	-12.19%	-10.15%	-8.89%	-9.62%	77.99%
SLB	85.66	0.28	0.33%	6.23%	0.59%	-4.49%	-14.83%	-13.30%	-18.42%	23.57%
STO	29.86	0.06	0.20%	6.19%	-3.68%	-5.33%	-4.42%	-3.68%	-11.97%	10.18%
IMO	53.05	-0.30	-0.56%	5.43%	-5.25%	-7.71%	-3.40%	-6.12%	7.04%	41.96%
PBR	100.90	-0.95	-0.93%	5.28%	-9.81%	-19.19%	-15.07%	-14.22%	33.64%	113.77%
PTR	128.03	6.30	5.18%	4.47%	-3.84%	-16.47%	-26.27%	-27.21%	-30.84%	11.52%
SU	97.80	-0.09	-0.09%	4.46%	-9.68%	-7.84%	-11.31%	-11.24%	3.15%	27.28%
ECA	74.86	-0.83	-1.10%	4.19%	-5.13%	-4.17%	7.54%	8.16%	21.03%	47.16%
TOT	73.34	-0.34	-0.46%	2.42%	-3.32%	-5.09%	-11.94%	-12.39%	-9.49%	6.07%
RIG	134.17	0.08	0.06%	2.31%	-3.68%	-6.75%	-8.07%	-8.12%	18.68%	64.89%
CVX	84.50	0.10	0.12%	1.55%	-2.92%	-5.08%	-9.59%	-10.92%	-9.70%	14.07%
XOM	85.22	-0.98	-1.14%	0.26%	-2.10%	-4.65%	-8.87%	-10.29%	-7.93%	12.78%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

A week earlier, Basic Materials (XLB -7.33%) got crushed. But this week XLB gained +5.20% to 40.29.

This week, $GOLD popped $16.50, causing the leading miners like Barrick and Goldcorp to rise by +6.4% and +5.9% respectively. But the prices are still down this month, as it was only a week ago that all the goldminers were blown up as $GOLD plunged -$79.50/oz. That week, ABX plunged -20.8% and GG -16.8%.

My alert of a possible major sell-off continues in the precious metals because the banks and the Administration need the commodity prices lower if there is any hope of saving some of the big banks and brokers and a big piece of American industry like the homebuilders and the retailers. This week, all of the latter sold off sharply, so the Interventionists will try to pull something off soon.

I continue to believe that the short-term play is to trade out of gold and goldstocks for the short-term and to get ready to step back in, especially some (but not all) of the juniors.

Some of the iron ore, steels and base metals companies also had a rally as the $USD dropped this week: TCK +12.0%, RIO +10.8%, MT +8.4% and TS +8.3% were leaders. In fact most were really strong until Friday when prices were mixed.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TCK	42.08	0.57	1.37%	12.03%	-3.26%	-0.38%	16.11%	14.32%	-11.80%	-40.56%
RIO	34.15	-0.14	-0.41%	10.77%	-0.09%	-8.25%	4.40%	2.31%	0.65%	-5.19%
MT	80.34	1.49	1.89%	8.44%	2.67%	1.36%	5.16%	3.26%	2.53%	57.53%
TS	48.83	0.41	0.85%	8.32%	-2.12%	9.36%	10.00%	9.04%	-7.20%	6.41%
PKX	118.43	-0.99	-0.83%	5.85%	-1.95%	-17.52%	-19.14%	-23.22%	-33.75%	18.76%
RTP	407.52	2.62	0.65%	5.17%	-8.67%	-12.17%	-2.90%	-3.20%	18.67%	83.65%
BHP	65.56	0.50	0.77%	4.38%	-6.36%	-13.45%	-6.89%	-8.13%	-16.59%	38.37%
AA	36.11	0.73	2.06%	4.12%	-6.13%	-7.69%	-0.06%	-2.03%	-7.69%	7.53%
VCP	28.16	-0.58	-2.02%	0.57%	-3.86%	-14.82%	-5.19%	-6.04%	-1.61%	58.38%
DOW	36.66	-0.22	-0.60%	0.49%	-2.06%	-5.27%	-5.39%	-8.56%	-14.86%	-20.91%
NUE	69.06	-0.15	-0.22%	0.15%	-4.71%	1.51%	19.13%	13.49%	16.13%	6.49%
GGB	30.56	-0.30	-0.97%	0.10%	-8.34%	-9.61%	6.48%	3.95%	16.55%	75.23%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABB	26.71	0.33	1.25%	10.33%	2.30%	3.61%	-6.74%	-8.31%	1.83%	57.67%
FLR	140.35	1.96	1.42%	7.03%	-0.20%	-1.49%	-2.80%	-4.04%	-2.52%	56.33%
FDX	91.27	-0.45	-0.49%	4.90%	4.82%	2.33%	5.93%	0.72%	-12.87%	-15.23%
CAT	77.09	0.06	0.08%	4.37%	1.88%	3.63%	9.15%	5.37%	-1.71%	16.38%
HON	55.85	0.85	1.55%	2.87%	-1.50%	-5.63%	-6.76%	-8.74%	-6.09%	21.33%
TXT	54.62	0.37	0.68%	1.98%	0.81%	-2.25%	-18.25%	-23.74%	-12.20%	22.27%
UPS	72.26	-0.57	-0.78%	0.84%	2.16%	0.71%	4.48%	0.98%	-3.78%	2.64%
MMM	77.95	0.09	0.12%	-0.04%	-1.43%	-2.32%	-5.76%	-8.39%	-16.70%	2.06%
UTX	68.55	-0.86	-1.24%	-0.67%	0.06%	-5.02%	-8.86%	-10.82%	-14.82%	4.86%
BA	73.47	-0.75	-1.01%	-1.78%	-0.96%	-13.36%	-15.18%	-16.75%	-30.02%	-17.86%
ERJ	39.27	-0.69	-1.73%	-1.82%	-6.03%	-14.44%	-12.98%	-15.00%	-10.59%	-10.95%
GE	36.61	-0.22	-0.60%	-2.35%	6.89%	8.15%	-0.41%	-1.96%	-11.57%	2.98%

XLI (Industrials) gained +0.57% this week to close at 36.84.

A week ago, General (Electric) had been up a monstrous +9.5%, so this week’s loss of -2.4% was nothing much.
For the same reason, I discount the fact that ABB jumped +10.3% and FLR +7.0% because a week ago FLR (-6.8%) and ABB (-7.3%) were crushed.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) finally came back to earth as commodity prices soared. XLY lost -2.30% to close at 30.53.

A week ago I wrote that the Cara 100 winners BBBY (+9.1%) and BC (+10.1%) had been sent on moonshots. This week they came back to earth: BBBY (-6.6%, including -3.4% on Friday) and BC (-7.4% W/W) got hit.

A week ago, I wrote: “The price of Crude Oil collapsed -$6.90/bbbl this week, so the Consumer Discretionary sector was greatly helped.” This week, it was just the opposite.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	30.22	-0.52	-1.69%	5.66%	13.18%	10.82%	-6.99%	-10.54%	-22.55%	-8.73%
TM	103.79	1.53	1.50%	0.61%	-1.15%	-6.13%	-2.51%	-2.64%	-11.18%	-19.46%
GOL	16.10	-0.50	-3.01%	-0.19%	5.92%	-9.85%	-32.89%	-36.39%	-32.92%	-39.27%
NKE	65.86	-0.12	-0.18%	-2.10%	7.91%	6.16%	4.08%	2.41%	12.27%	25.30%
BDK	65.47	-0.42	-0.64%	-2.53%	-1.13%	-7.28%	-6.38%	-5.80%	-21.40%	-19.86%
DIS	31.00	-0.38	-1.21%	-2.82%	-1.05%	-4.73%	-2.64%	-4.38%	-9.86%	-9.44%
CCL	39.70	-1.07	-2.62%	-2.91%	1.20%	-2.22%	-9.07%	-11.01%	-18.03%	-14.49%
WHR	85.40	-0.09	-0.11%	-3.77%	0.49%	-5.51%	6.91%	5.71%	-4.15%	1.22%
TGT	49.69	-1.29	-2.53%	-5.08%	-1.72%	-7.67%	0.36%	-2.07%	-21.83%	-17.11%
BBBY	29.11	-1.01	-3.35%	-6.58%	1.96%	-0.95%	2.64%	0.00%	-14.68%	-26.27%
BC	16.12	-0.68	-4.05%	-7.41%	1.90%	-5.51%	-4.73%	-8.15%	-29.48%	-48.78%
JCP	37.48	-3.04	-7.50%	-11.02%	-5.54%	-21.46%	-10.01%	-14.37%	-40.86%	-53.50%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BUD	48.00	0.01	0.02%	4.30%	3.07%	-0.41%	-7.03%	-9.18%	-3.98%	-3.60%
DEO	82.12	-1.18	-1.42%	2.19%	-0.51%	-2.95%	-3.46%	-4.74%	-6.39%	3.63%
WAG	37.43	0.17	0.46%	1.77%	2.46%	0.78%	0.24%	-3.08%	-20.77%	-19.24%
PEP	71.56	0.37	0.52%	0.52%	3.35%	0.70%	-4.95%	-7.10%	-2.32%	13.79%
PG	69.44	0.03	0.04%	0.10%	3.09%	3.69%	-3.97%	-6.48%	-1.28%	10.20%
KO	60.94	-0.37	-0.60%	-0.16%	3.41%	2.49%	-0.25%	-2.14%	6.04%	27.20%
WFMI	32.48	-0.69	-2.08%	-0.52%	1.88%	-11.01%	-18.31%	-21.83%	-33.66%	-26.90%
KR	25.16	0.41	1.66%	-0.94%	0.64%	-0.04%	-1.99%	-6.71%	-11.78%	-11.25%
ABV	76.12	-1.96	-2.51%	-0.99%	-4.79%	-13.72%	5.02%	4.57%	4.09%	44.63%
WMT	52.12	-0.25	-0.48%	-2.09%	3.00%	2.80%	11.13%	8.40%	19.40%	11.75%
SBUX	17.05	-0.57	-3.23%	-2.74%	-3.29%	-8.19%	-11.70%	-15.30%	-34.92%	-45.49%
PDA	46.40	-1.69	-3.51%	-7.26%	-8.12%	-6.38%	-3.59%	-5.94%	5.67%	71.47%

This week, XLP gained +1.01% to close at 27.90.

The big beer and liquor stocks, like BUD and DEO, recovered this week.

On Friday, as the US equity market sold off sharply, XLP managed a small gain of +0.07%, the only sector to do so.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVS	50.96	0.17	0.33%	3.89%	5.07%	0.69%	-6.62%	-7.06%	-7.28%	-9.44%
AMGN	41.45	-0.04	-0.10%	3.34%	-12.14%	-8.96%	-11.05%	-11.92%	-26.73%	-25.61%
DNA	80.00	-0.13	-0.16%	0.93%	-1.76%	5.46%	18.69%	18.50%	2.54%	-2.50%
GSK	42.28	-0.30	-0.70%	0.69%	2.03%	-6.15%	-15.73%	-16.69%	-20.53%	-21.76%
NVO	66.73	-0.58	-0.86%	0.17%	-2.85%	-3.32%	4.59%	0.94%	-44.87%	-23.87%
BMY	21.48	0.18	0.85%	0.09%	0.33%	-6.24%	-17.80%	-20.94%	-25.47%	-22.23%
PFE	20.50	-0.06	-0.29%	-0.44%	-3.35%	-9.09%	-10.52%	-10.48%	-16.09%	-18.59%
AET	42.54	-0.71	-1.64%	-1.28%	-4.79%	-17.24%	-24.89%	-26.49%	-21.61%	-3.60%
MDT	47.86	-0.20	-0.42%	-1.38%	-0.37%	-3.82%	-3.31%	-4.70%	-15.16%	-1.66%
JNJ	64.18	-0.44	-0.68%	-1.84%	2.18%	2.34%	-2.62%	-4.75%	-2.31%	6.97%
UNH	34.40	0.40	1.18%	-2.60%	-10.14%	-28.35%	-39.30%	-40.97%	-28.97%	-37.24%
WLP	43.23	-1.62	-3.61%	-5.69%	-8.91%	-40.50%	-50.31%	-50.93%	-45.22%	-47.04%

IYH (healthcare) lost -0.38%W/W to close at 62.85, because of Friday’s loss of -0.65%.

After plunging -15.0% a week ago, AMGN recovered +3.3%, and Novartis (NVS) gained +3.9%.

The loser was Wellpoint (WLP -5.7%) and UNH (-2.6%). UNH was a loser a week ago too (-7.7%).

During this Bear market, traders might want to look at some of the smaller Biotech companies. Their stocks are now trading in some cases down near their cash per share value. When the next Bull market starts to roar, the Biotechs ($BTK -1.40% to 719.19) will likely be a leader. That may be a while yet, so there is time to study these companies. Here is the chart link.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IBN	39.58	0.11	0.28%	10.10%	-6.30%	-26.54%	-36.32%	-35.64%	-24.92%	0.71%
CS	50.09	-0.21	-0.42%	1.23%	-1.49%	-1.44%	-16.07%	-16.75%	-24.48%	-30.25%
HBC	81.16	-0.50	-0.61%	0.95%	1.96%	4.80%	-1.55%	-3.25%	-12.35%	-6.50%
DB	112.70	-0.23	-0.20%	0.39%	0.33%	-2.24%	-12.68%	-13.11%	-12.22%	-14.00%
BBD	27.50	-0.72	-2.55%	-1.93%	-11.23%	-15.15%	-9.63%	-14.09%	-6.37%	38.82%
UBS	27.77	-1.36	-4.67%	-2.60%	-8.32%	-17.82%	-39.35%	-39.76%	-47.85%	-52.73%
JPM	42.71	-0.15	-0.35%	-7.15%	12.07%	0.64%	1.28%	-1.27%	-6.79%	-11.00%
C	20.83	-0.96	-4.41%	-7.42%	-1.14%	-16.71%	-27.97%	-28.88%	-55.37%	-59.12%
GS	164.45	-3.69	-2.19%	-8.45%	-0.60%	-6.93%	-20.79%	-22.41%	-24.13%	-20.46%
MS	44.74	-0.95	-2.08%	-10.36%	7.55%	0.77%	-12.19%	-15.93%	-28.98%	-42.88%
MER	39.93	-1.97	-4.70%	-14.13%	-13.68%	-22.71%	-24.32%	-24.62%	-43.98%	-51.47%
LEH	37.87	-0.84	-2.17%	-22.16%	-17.66%	-30.74%	-39.11%	-41.43%	-38.65%	-45.92%

This week, the Financials (XLF +6.02% on Friday) closed with a gain of +6.19% W/W.

A week ago I wrote, “Laughable to me were the stock gains of the American banks and brokers vs their foreign-based counterparts: JPM +20.7%, MS +20.0%, GS +8.6%, C +6.8%, and LEH +5.8% led the pack.” I said it was little more than the Fed and the bankers of Wall Street scratching one another’s backs and backsides.

This week, the market spoke up: Despite all those earlier in the year share buy-backs (remember when I opined that it was a disgrace to be doing it at the top of the market last summer!), Lehman (LH -22.2%), Merrill Lynch (MER -14.1%), Morgan Stanley (MS -10.4%), Goldman Sachs (GS -8.5%), Citigroup (C -7.4% although it got hammered the week earlier too), and JP Morgan (JPM -7.2%) all showed what happens when rats leap from a sinking ship.

“Rat” might not be a pretty word, but what image came to mind when you read that the Bear Stearns Chairman sold all his stock as the company was finding itself bankrupt? Henry Blodgett (remember the Wall St analyst who couldn’t dodge it) says Cayne has turned to religion. I wonder if Cayne will follow in Blodgett's footsteps? Blodgett apparently turned to blogging after his own less than professional exit from Wall Street in 2001.

What to watch for in this sector is relative strength of individual stocks to XLF. If your bank is going to fail, I don’t think the share price is going higher unless a few people perps are going to jail. Legislators and prosecutors are angry with what has been happening on Wall Street, so I don’t think they are going to walk away from their responsibility to the People here.

It used to be you didn’t want to work for the telephone company. Now it’s a bank.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Here’s the XLK Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLK Monthly data:

XLK Weekly data:

XLK Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RIMM	115.34	3.19	2.84%	9.91%	9.17%	5.77%	1.43%	-1.37%	17.04%	154.61%
AAPL	143.01	2.76	1.97%	7.31%	11.78%	10.08%	-26.60%	-28.43%	-6.82%	53.41%
INFY	36.30	-0.01	-0.03%	7.14%	3.92%	-11.29%	-18.30%	-20.31%	-24.98%	-28.06%
QCOM	40.14	0.42	1.06%	4.89%	-0.27%	-7.34%	4.56%	1.44%	-5.02%	-5.55%
SNDK	21.26	-0.36	-1.67%	3.45%	-7.57%	-12.58%	-35.91%	-36.61%	-61.42%	-52.44%
ADBE	35.33	-0.35	-0.98%	2.55%	6.10%	-0.03%	-15.30%	-17.70%	-19.08%	-15.03%
CTSH	29.18	-0.31	-1.05%	0.59%	1.71%	-9.83%	-9.46%	-16.44%	-26.87%	-35.41%
SAP	49.12	0.32	0.66%	-0.37%	-2.15%	-0.65%	-3.17%	-4.94%	-16.28%	10.51%
ADSK	31.77	0.34	1.08%	-0.72%	-7.99%	-4.05%	-34.14%	-36.79%	-36.42%	-15.48%
CSCO	24.08	-0.10	-0.41%	-2.79%	-3.49%	-2.35%	-9.27%	-12.63%	-27.32%	-6.30%
ORCL	19.37	-0.06	-0.31%	-3.54%	-2.37%	-0.21%	-13.87%	-15.67%	-10.53%	6.60%
INTC	20.79	-0.30	-1.42%	-4.41%	-2.30%	1.46%	-17.99%	-22.31%	-19.61%	10.23%

Semi-conductors (SMH) lost -1.93% W/W, while Technology (XLK) gained +0.09% W/W. Both got hammered on Friday.

AAPL was up +7.3% W/W after being up +4.2% a week earlier.

SNDK which was a huge loser a week ago (-10.7%) was in recovery mode (+3.5%) after the very good and hugely popular California high-tech writer John Dvorak called it a turn-around. John apparently also liked Sigma Designs (SIGM). I too like both these companies, but a Bear market is a challenging time to buy them.

Bear markets are characterized by lower lows and lower highs, despite in many cases improving fundamentals, like book-to-bill ratios. If you are going to trade stocks (even buy-and-hold trades), then you need to look at the whole picture: fundamentals, quant and technicals, and macro economics.

But, I do admit there are a handful (not that I could lift them) of really good analysts and writers, and John Dvorak is one of them.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

Telecom (IYZ) gained +0.13% to 23.07. The loss on Friday was -0.90%, which was like smelling salts under my nose, reminding me this is a Bear market.

AT&T (T) gained +2.2% W/W but was flat on Friday, while Verizon (VZ) dropped -0.8% W/W.

A week ago I pointed out the merits of Verizon (VZ) even though it’s not a Cara 100 company. Please read my comments in the Value Line discussion below. I’m not so positive.

Yes, there was a pop after the stock traded below my recommended price, but that was for a short-term trade (using options mostly) and this is a Bear market with a US economy getting worse off by the week. So, let’s be prudent here. I saw somebody in the Discourse saying he/she was getting ready to accumulate VZ, which reminds me of the difference between the Formula One motorcar race cars and the audience in the stands. Blink and you missed it.

“Little by little we move forward.” Not too much on this one, but at least we made a little money and a lot of education!

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU (Utilities) gained +0.48% W/W to 37.63, but dropped -1.18% on Friday, to close at 37.63.

A week ago I wrote: “I still like the nuclear power generation companies. Excelon (EXC 79.75) was a Buy in the low 70’s in January, and may get back there again at some point.”

A week ago I wrote, “EXC closed at $80.40 and traded as high as 82.46 on Wed. I’d still like to buy it down in the low 70’s.” This week, EXC closed down -0.80% to $79.76 after losing -1.38% on Friday. The chart shows me it will be profitable to wait.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	1.29	1.24	0.34	1.89
6 Month	1.46	1.41	1.08	1.94
2 Year	1.64	1.68	1.58	1.99
3 Year	1.52	1.55	1.46	1.98
5 Year	2.51	2.55	2.37	2.89
10 Year	3.44	3.53	3.33	3.85
30 Year	4.31	4.39	4.17	4.65

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.54	2.57	2.54	2.67
2yr AAA	2.40	2.41	2.51	2.55
2yr A	2.72	2.67	2.83	2.80
5yr AAA	2.95	2.91	3.09	3.08
5yr AA	3.12	3.12	3.05	3.19
5yr A	3.06	3.06	3.10	3.22
10yr AAA	3.76	3.74	3.70	3.84
10yr AA	3.96	3.94	3.85	3.70
10yr A	3.99	3.97	3.99	3.86
20yr AAA	4.75	4.68	4.64	4.76
20yr AA	4.97	4.90	4.85	4.80
20yr A	5.10	5.01	4.99	4.99

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.91	3.97	3.60	3.48
2yr A	3.64	3.64	3.48	3.41
5yr AAA	4.00	4.08	3.71	4.18
5yr AA	4.29	4.30	4.20	4.24
5yr A	5.23	5.14	4.56	4.67
10yr AAA	4.67	4.67	4.46	5.31
10yr AA	5.82	5.82	5.47	5.46
10yr A	5.46	5.52	5.39	5.95
20yr AAA	6.44	6.50	6.21	5.82
20yr AA	6.12	6.19	5.79	6.44
20yr A	6.31	6.36	6.08	6.40

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Although there was some strength on Friday as traders sought safehaven plays, the bond market sold off this week.

Yields on the 2-year through 30-year Treasury bonds gained +6 to +14 basis points (bp).

The big move this week was once again in the T-Bills as the yield moved up from 1.06 to 1.29 after two weeks ago hitting a record 0.34 as equity traders panicked during the Bear Stearns crisis.

Just 6 weeks ago, the T-Bill yield was 2.17, so this market has been on wheels. If the T-Bill yield continues to move higher, at least a bit, then traders can figure that Wall street liquidity has improved.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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A week ago I wrote, “The mortgage companies like Countrywide, Fannie and Freddie were saved by the Fed and HB&B this week: CFC (+13.1% on Thursday and +21.1% W/W), FNM (+11.7% on Thursday and +49.3% W/W) and FRE (+9.7% on Thursday and +54.0% W/W)… A week ago these stocks were getting absolutely crushed, but I wrote some words of wisdom: “I am not following this mess too closely because, you know, out of the room, out of the deal.” ..This game is so crooked that we don’t have to live in Washington and New York to smell the stench. As a trader, I don’t mind the volatility at all – in fact I love it – but what concerns me is that the Fed and Admin actually think that these moves to help Friends & Family out of their dire straits by using the People’s money (and their children’s and grandchildren’s) is not being noticed by the People (and many of their children and grandchildren). They must take us all for fools… If politics wasn’t so corrupt at the highest levels, there would surely be an impeachment of certain people.”

Well, the People are not fools. They watched Bank of America pay some ungodly sum for a bankrupt Countrywide Financial in order to improve the optics of the mortgage industry, and shore up the “Liar Asset Prices” on their books, that until UBS on Thursday or Friday refused to buy it anymore seemed to work.

Anyway, CFC, FNM and FRE this week were hammered again: -2.6%, -24.1& and -22.4% respectively. CFC looked like it might catch some air until along came Friday when it took a loss of -4.25%, taking it down for a 52-week loss of -83.3%.

FNM and FRE sank -7.0% and -6.0% respectively on Friday.

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The TLT finally dropped -1.68% to 95.55 after a gain of +3.56% a week ago and another good one the week before that. There was a small gain on Friday.

The TIP lost -0.71% this week despite a solid gain on Friday.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SHY	84.22	0.05	0.06%	0.02%	0.18%	0.38%	2.28%	2.63%	3.64%	4.62%
AGG	102.84	0.25	0.24%	-0.56%	0.78%	0.30%	1.17%	1.68%	2.82%	2.41%
TIP	109.64	0.81	0.74%	-0.71%	-1.03%	0.18%	2.81%	4.31%	7.46%	8.32%
IEF	91.53	0.36	0.39%	-1.08%	0.84%	2.03%	4.45%	5.68%	9.12%	9.87%
TLT	95.55	0.83	0.88%	-1.68%	1.82%	2.95%	1.24%	3.32%	7.70%	7.88%
DRE	22.48	-0.24	-1.06%	-1.83%	1.03%	-4.26%	-12.26%	-13.94%	-33.51%	-47.90%
CFC	5.630	-0.250	-4.25%	-2.60%	18.03%	-15.21%	-37.44%	-35.66%	-70.38%	-83.30%
EQR	40.35	-0.66	-1.61%	-4.45%	4.43%	3.94%	10.76%	10.73%	-4.75%	-14.37%
NLY	15.90	-0.10	-0.63%	-7.07%	3.38%	-23.56%	-12.15%	-11.37%	-0.19%	4.19%
AVB	95.10	-3.22	-3.28%	-8.79%	-0.93%	-0.09%	4.11%	2.46%	-19.45%	-24.82%
FRE	25.45	-1.63	-6.02%	-22.43%	19.48%	3.92%	-22.27%	-22.31%	-56.87%	-57.07%
FNM	26.02	-1.95	-6.97%	-24.14%	13.28%	-6.74%	-30.54%	-32.13%	-57.21%	-52.26%

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

A week ago, the $CRB crashed -28.10 (-6.75%) to 388.30. This week there was close to a 50% retracement Monday through Thursday, to 401.57, and then a sell-off of -1.44% on Friday.

Unless the Fed or the Wall Street loan sharks come up with the vigorish to play this market, commodity prices sink. In a Bear market within a rapidly receding economy, with financial institution counter-party risks on the rise, buying commodity prices higher is a fool’s game. My opinion, but then this is my blog.

I note that the Chicago exchanges increased the margin requirements on the ag contracts this week. The exchanges tend to do that when risks are elevated. Otherwise they are reluctant to lose the business.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

A week ago, $WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) crashed -6.90/bbl to 101.84. This week there were players who hit on Red 7 or whatever because Iraqi warfare seemed to be getting absurdly out of control to the point that “insurgents” were blowing up pipelines, and the like. Ergo: $WTIC ballooned by $3.78/bbl to 105.62, hitting a high of 108.22 this week. That’s not as high as two week’s ago when the record $110.35 was set, but it’s scary enough to cause traders to start thinking again of the health of the Retailers and the whole Consumer Discretionary Spending sector.

“How many remember $51/bbl in January 2007?”

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 98.02 (amazing!), and the 200d MA is 86.38.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

A week ago I wrote: “$GOLD crashed -$79.50/oz to 920.00, which is a drop of -7.95%.” I’m not surprised that there was a rebound rally of +$16.50/oz to 936.50, but that’s a long way from $1000 and I haven’t a clue why the screaming goldbugs are so wild. They ought to be crushed that the price hit 1033.90 a week ago Monday. Why, if I lost almost -10% of my capital in eight sessions, I’d be in tears.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 938.63, and the 200d MA is 792.57. So the current price is still below the 50-day MA even after a rally of +1.8% W/W.

As you can tell, I am not too wrapped up in the precious metals these days. I’d rather be in cash for a while. Let another Wall Street bank or three collapse and I’ll be ready to hit the Buy button following the collapse of commodity prices. Yes, for sure, I do believe we haven’t seen anywhere near the top of the gold cycle for the next few years.

It’s just that I’d rather buy something special at $800 or lower that presently is marked up to $936.50. The fact it was on sale !! at $1033.90 less than two weeks ago doesn’t impress me. I have traded gold too many years to get sucked in to a bad trade.

Being dynamited in a series of explosions in a gold mine up near the Arctic Circle 20+ years ago, where I lost half my hearing, is part of my skin in the game. You might say I am not one to try swimming upstream carrying gold bricks in each hand.

Overcome your greed. Let the price come to you. Gold is money and in a couple years it will be worth that much more.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +6.47% to 17.94 and there are Silver Crazies out there who are screaming mimi’s. Let me remind you that $SILVER was $21.44 just eight sessions ago. I hate to see the clowns crying.

Let the Silver price come to you.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 18.06, and the 200d MA is 14.78. The current price is still below the 50-day MA. Let’s see if silver and gold can get above the 50-day MA before we start dancing. As far as I’m concerned, until that happens, the music has stopped, although I guess that didn’t stop Marlee Matlin on “Dance with the Stars”. Isn’t she something? This woman is truly an inspiration.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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This week $PLAT gained +$166.40/oz (+8.84%) to $2048.80, which almost matches the prior week’s loss (-9.26%) of -$199.00/oz.

Just remember that when you lose -9.26% one week, you need a gain of +11.02% the next week to make up for it.

The 50-day MA is 1944.99 and the 200-day MA is 1523.75. Note that the current price is now above the 50-day MA, whereas the price of gold, silver and palladium is not.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALLADIUM gained +$8.85/oz W/W to 454.90. The high was $600.00 three weeks ago, which is a rather large haircut.

The 50-day MA is now 465.39 and the 200-day MA is 389.44. Note that the current price is below the 50-day MA.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +$25.80 on the contracts to 383.15. However I wonder how many traders were thinking about economic contraction. The high was 402.40 three weeks ago, which I think was the cycle high.

In my view, a recessionary economy cannot support these high prices for copper. Also, a credit contraction cannot support the continued speculative pumping of precious metals.

But I do agree with those who feel that JP Morgan and others have controlled this market for a long time, and that prices for $COPPER are where Humungous Bankers want them to be until it suits them otherwise.

The 50-day MA for $COPPER is now 359.19 and the 200-day MA is 341.90.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EGO	7.000	0.380	5.74%	7.36%	-3.71%	2.49%	12.90%	16.28%	15.70%	15.13%
ABX	44.70	-0.38	-0.84%	6.43%	-15.74%	-16.18%	-2.87%	4.24%	10.97%	54.51%
GG	39.50	-0.64	-1.59%	5.87%	-11.93%	-11.65%	7.81%	13.51%	29.25%	59.98%
AU	33.35	0.40	1.21%	5.44%	-4.99%	-8.43%	-27.28%	-23.95%	-28.88%	-25.31%
KGC	22.78	0.00	0.00%	5.41%	-13.68%	-9.92%	13.05%	21.36%	52.07%	65.43%
BVN	70.88	-2.77	-3.76%	5.12%	-11.79%	-8.29%	16.43%	19.79%	48.35%	140.68%
LIHR	33.02	0.56	1.73%	4.59%	-15.36%	-14.94%	-0.45%	4.69%	-8.35%	25.93%
AEM	69.17	-0.87	-1.24%	2.95%	-10.49%	-1.41%	22.38%	26.92%	38.90%	90.08%
HMY	12.08	-0.34	-2.74%	1.60%	-14.08%	-4.43%	12.37%	13.64%	1.43%	-13.41%
NEM	46.55	-0.06	-0.13%	1.26%	-13.44%	-11.90%	-11.15%	-4.98%	4.07%	8.84%
GFI	14.41	-0.07	-0.48%	-3.16%	-12.29%	0.35%	-6.43%	-0.96%	-20.34%	-20.74%
AUY	15.06	-0.31	-2.02%	-5.40%	-20.36%	-19.16%	8.58%	16.02%	27.84%	4.29%

This week, the $XAU gained +4.80% to 180.27.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 187.03, and the 200d MA is 167.71. Note that the current price is still below the 50-day MA.

I am negative on the larger cap goldminers that are held by hedge funds, but recently I wrote, “That’s not to say there are not some spectacular values in the developing juniors.”

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

I was concluding in this space in the past couple weeks that the sell-off in the $USD and gains in precious metals was coming to an end, but this week there was another sell-off (-1.57%) to 71.61.

Let’s see what next week brings after the end of the Japanese fiscal year.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) rallied once again, which fooled me. The $XEU gained +2.08% W/W to close at 1.5774.

“The ECB would like to see it lower, which could mean they drop rates soon, but so far they haven’t.”

This strong Euro can’t be helping exports or in-bound tourism. Investors in Europe are uptight according to the surveys.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound rallied a bit +0.43% W/W to 199.21, but is still down considerably from the 202.19 close two weeks ago.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA are at 198.12 and 201.39 respectively, so the Pound is fairly close to its true value. It’s the Euro I think that is way over priced.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) gained +0.53 W/W to 100.59 from 100.06.

The Yen’s 50-day MA is 95.67 and the 200-day MA is 88.82.

I think the Yen is over-priced and soon to head lower against the USD.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) gained +0.16 (+0.16%) this week to close Friday at 97.87, which is close to where I think the new Bank of Canada would like to see it – maybe 2% to 4% too high still.

The 50-day MA and 200-day MA is at 99.74 and 98.73 respectively, which means the current price is below both.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equity Markets Review

The FTSE (5495 to 5693), DAX (6314 to 6560) and CAC (4534 to 4696) all moved up this week.

The difference here is that Europeans think that the American banking problems are confined to Wall Street. I respectfully disagree.

The Nikkei 225 of Japan is at 12820.

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I added 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

I also made some additions to the country-based ETF tables as I intend to focus more on ETF’s in 2008. In time, I will also set up tables and track the domestic market prices.

The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	46.11	0.46	1.01%	6.74%	0.22%	-11.28%	-25.51%	-25.87%	-15.08%	17.18%
EWS	12.77	0.02	0.16%	5.28%	7.31%	1.35%	-5.34%	-4.84%	-13.60%	4.93%
EWH	18.02	0.18	1.01%	5.07%	1.81%	-5.36%	-17.30%	-16.26%	-13.78%	13.12%
EWG	31.32	-0.04	-0.13%	4.57%	0.42%	-1.63%	-11.50%	-12.54%	-9.43%	10.13%
EWC	30.26	-0.24	-0.79%	4.27%	-4.36%	-8.16%	-6.60%	-7.01%	-7.55%	16.30%
EWQ	34.50	-0.13	-0.38%	3.95%	0.79%	-1.06%	-9.07%	-10.76%	-10.39%	-0.69%
EWA	25.78	-0.07	-0.27%	3.78%	-0.35%	-7.30%	-10.42%	-11.47%	-18.85%	1.18%
EWJ	12.47	0.05	0.40%	3.49%	0.97%	-1.58%	-5.74%	-5.96%	-12.92%	-14.88%
EWU	21.44	-0.09	-0.42%	2.68%	-2.77%	-4.41%	-10.22%	-12.10%	-16.90%	-10.03%
EWZ	76.87	-0.86	-1.11%	2.49%	-5.74%	-12.85%	-5.04%	-5.99%	3.75%	61.09%
TRF	56.60	-1.25	-2.16%	1.04%	-5.96%	-9.56%	-22.98%	-21.50%	-17.58%	-19.03%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had a huge burst of prices in the Financials on Thursday to close the previous week for the Easter holiday, and that action continued through Monday and Tuesday where Wall St Talking Heads were being sent to Financial Entertainment TV wearing clown costumes (“LIFE IS BEAUTIFUL”).

Then along came reality when traders did not want to face the weekend long much of anything.

Four weeks ago, I opined in this space, “I see nothing happening to inspire the Bulls. I think the market is biding time until the next decline.” I continue to believe that despite $300 billion in Fed pumping (or thereabouts) in the past month, the US equity market is going nowhere.

There is an expression among traders: “Prices don’t drift.” That means if they don’t rise, they fall.

Four weeks ago, the DJIA closed at 12266. This week the close was 12216, down -50 points. Not much perhaps until you start to ponder what happened to the $300 billion the Fed pumped into the market in the interim. I say it went straight in the pockets of HB&B.

And now Henry Paulson, masquerading as the People’s Treasury Secretary, wants to nail the lid shut. He is expecting his Fed to take control of the People’s SEC control over his broker-dealers. I say he’s either nuts or somebody soon will start talk of impeachment. Enough is enough.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CAT	77.09	0.06	0.08%	4.37%	1.88%	3.63%	9.15%	5.37%	-1.71%	16.38%
AA	36.11	0.73	2.06%	4.12%	-6.13%	-7.69%	-0.06%	-2.03%	-7.69%	7.53%
MRK	44.51	-0.27	-0.60%	2.65%	6.15%	-1.53%	-22.42%	-24.19%	-13.89%	2.96%
T	37.66	0.00	0.00%	2.20%	6.08%	4.73%	-8.15%	-11.26%	-10.99%	-3.31%
DD	46.44	0.04	0.09%	2.18%	-1.84%	-1.69%	6.17%	4.83%	-6.30%	-5.78%
MCD	55.48	0.03	0.05%	1.95%	1.07%	1.57%	-4.51%	-6.76%	1.85%	23.76%
CVX	84.50	0.10	0.12%	1.55%	-2.92%	-5.08%	-9.59%	-10.92%	-9.70%	14.07%
XOM	85.22	-0.98	-1.14%	0.26%	-2.10%	-4.65%	-8.87%	-10.29%	-7.93%	12.78%
PG	69.44	0.03	0.04%	0.10%	3.09%	3.69%	-3.97%	-6.48%	-1.28%	10.20%
MMM	77.95	0.09	0.12%	-0.04%	-1.43%	-2.32%	-5.76%	-8.39%	-16.70%	2.06%
KO	60.94	-0.37	-0.60%	-0.16%	3.41%	2.49%	-0.25%	-2.14%	6.04%	27.20%
PFE	20.50	-0.06	-0.29%	-0.44%	-3.35%	-9.09%	-10.52%	-10.48%	-16.09%	-18.59%
UTX	68.55	-0.86	-1.24%	-0.67%	0.06%	-5.02%	-8.86%	-10.82%	-14.82%	4.86%
VZ	35.85	-0.11	-0.31%	-0.75%	3.40%	-3.58%	-17.03%	-19.65%	-19.04%	-3.71%
HPQ	46.09	-0.55	-1.18%	-0.88%	-1.98%	-5.07%	-7.47%	-10.26%	-7.43%	15.83%
BA	73.47	-0.75	-1.01%	-1.78%	-0.96%	-13.36%	-15.18%	-16.75%	-30.02%	-17.86%
JNJ	64.18	-0.44	-0.68%	-1.84%	2.18%	2.34%	-2.62%	-4.75%	-2.31%	6.97%
WMT	52.12	-0.25	-0.48%	-2.09%	3.00%	2.80%	11.13%	8.40%	19.40%	11.75%
GE	36.61	-0.22	-0.60%	-2.35%	6.89%	8.15%	-0.41%	-1.96%	-11.57%	2.98%
HD	27.38	-0.41	-1.48%	-2.42%	3.40%	-1.19%	4.86%	2.85%	-15.60%	-25.54%
DIS	31.00	-0.38	-1.21%	-2.82%	-1.05%	-4.73%	-2.64%	-4.38%	-9.86%	-9.44%
IBM	114.57	-0.95	-0.82%	-3.18%	-1.16%	-0.58%	9.44%	4.07%	-2.74%	21.55%
GM	18.67	-0.59	-3.06%	-4.26%	-8.07%	-23.80%	-23.51%	-26.21%	-49.13%	-40.24%
MSFT	27.91	-0.14	-0.50%	-4.35%	-2.48%	-0.07%	-20.76%	-22.73%	-5.26%	0.98%
INTC	20.79	-0.30	-1.42%	-4.41%	-2.30%	1.46%	-17.99%	-22.31%	-19.61%	10.23%
AIG	42.80	-0.66	-1.52%	-4.93%	0.75%	-14.66%	-23.98%	-26.13%	-36.73%	-36.26%
AXP	43.15	-1.68	-3.75%	-6.15%	1.05%	-2.86%	-15.46%	-15.13%	-27.32%	-22.75%
BAC	38.07	-0.57	-1.48%	-6.74%	2.50%	-8.09%	-6.14%	-7.37%	-24.27%	-25.01%
JPM	42.71	-0.15	-0.35%	-7.15%	12.07%	0.64%	1.28%	-1.27%	-6.79%	-11.00%
C	20.83	-0.96	-4.41%	-7.42%	-1.14%	-16.71%	-27.97%	-28.88%	-55.37%	-59.12%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on the two major US telco’s, AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ).

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Analyst Kenneth A. Nugent of Value Line is quite positive on the fundamentals of Verizon. However, the technicals are probably telling another story as to the evaluation of the VZ stock price future. I think we have to wait a month or more to better understand the trend and cycle data.

With respect to my recent opinion that VZ is perhaps reaching a crucial and timely bottoming zone where traders might contemplate buying some stock, my associate Pierre Brodeur, who will be joining Team Cara as chief technical and quant teacher, has caused me to re-think my position, saying that the risks are too high that this stock might drop to $26-27 before it reaches a long-term cycle bottom. That would take the price back to the 2000-2002 bear market lows.

As you know, I study capital markets from all perspectives: fundamental, quantitative, technical and economic. On the one hand, I agree with Value Line that, on the surface, the Verizon fundamentals are strong. The company’s financial strength is rated A+ and getting stronger with Value Line increasing the Safety Rating to a “1” on Sept-28-07. The net profit margin and return on capital ratios are growing. The dividend, slated for $1.72 this year, appears solid. On a current price of $35.85, that would mean a yield of +4.8%, which is superior to most stocks in the S&P 500, and of course anything the US government is paying. The problem, however, is the projected Total Return, which also factors in share price.

As Pierre Brodeur argues, the quantitative and technical data is negative and on the borderline of a breakdown. Moreover, the economic picture in the US is worsening. So, let’s take a deep breath and look at where Pierre is coming from.

Here is his studies for VZ on Trend and Relative Strength.

Pierre, btw, until he retired recently, managed a quant/technical research team of 30 persons in his capacity as department chief for a major financial services firm.

As he points out, the current Cara Trading Advisors market projection is for the Dow 30 to correct from a top of 14,198.10 to a low of 10,000 which is a bear market of -29.6%. If the beta of 0.95 with respect to the Dow30 applies to VZ, then, following VZ’s bear phase decline from its peak, we had been expecting the stock to experience the same kind of correction as the market, adjusted for risk.

Numerically, then, the VZ Price Target would have been ($45.78 – ($45.78 x [29.6% x 0.95]) = $32.90. This month, on March-17, the stock (at the low of $33.15) reached its first price objective of $33, which was based on this scenario and on Fib 61.8% ($33.23). To that extent, I feel comfortable in my recent assessment of the Verizon stock price.

Let’s step back, if you will, and examine the methodologies that Cara Trading Advisors intends, under Pierre Brodeur’s guidance, to numerically evaluate the risks and opportunities and set price targets for stocks.

Pierre uses four different approaches, which follow, but as is often the case, four methods can yield vastly different results for individual stocks, so setting price targets, as we did for VZ, becomes a function of our basic expectations for the market and the sector as well as for the company.

(i) Moving Average

Whether a stock trades above or below its 200-day moving average is often a useful measure of sustainable value to price. In the case of VZ, as the stock is already trading below the 200-day MA ($41.06), and both the 50-day and 200-MA’s are falling, so we first must examine the negative case.

Notably, after the low of $33.15 was set, the price rallied only up to $37.28 and bounced back down off the falling 50-day MA, which is a distinct short-term negative.

(ii) Standard Deviation

We estimate the standard deviation of this stock to be around $4.66 or 13.0%. At the current price of $35.85, the one standard deviation downside target price is $31.30, at two standard deviations, it is $26.60 and a 3 standard deviation it could hit $22.

(iii) Fibonacci series

The stock is currently at a very critical point in terms of Fibonacci (Fib) retracement as it is still dangerously close to the 61.8% level of $33.23. Should Verizon trade below this level, then the odds are that the stock would correct its entire recent advance if the bear market is very serious, and that would take the stock price all the way down to $25.43!

(iv) Point and Figure

The P&F approach appears to be quite pessimistic for this stock given the topping formation that it has experienced. The vertical price projection method yields a price target of $18.00 (a highly improbable event much greater than 3 std dev) while the horizontal method yields $27.00.

Conclusion: I cannot in good conscience stick with my earlier opinion that a price of $31.50-$33.00 will be the long-term floor. A breakdown from current levels ($35.85) would in all probability mean more significant downside risk back to the $26-$27 level. I need more time to observe how traders react to the next test of long-term support of the $33 level, following which I will keep you apprised.

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Re AT&T (T), Value Line also paints an impressive fundamental picture.

The dividend should be $1.60 this year, which provides a healthy current yield of 4.25% at the price today of $37.66, but as with Verizon you also have to be concerned about AT&T’s price performance in a bear market and the impact of a recessionary economy on forward revenue guidance.

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 1: next one is due May 2)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 1: next one is due May 2)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb 8: next one is due May 9)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 15: next one is due May 16)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb 22: next one is due May 23)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Feb. 29: next one is due May 30)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 7: next one is due Jun. 6)

ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Mar. 14: next one is due Jun. 13)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Mar. 21: next one is due Jun. 20)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Mar. 28: next one is due Jun. 27)

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Wrap up:

It’s truly amazing to me to get so many letters from people all over the world thanking me for sticking to my guns about this crisis in the global financial system. I only wish this was a Bear market to write about, but unfortunately the problems are much worse.

Respectfully, I valued my time at HB&B. Some of the smartest people I ever met worked there. But something happened, and Henry Paulson is touching on it this week in his pleas to have the Fed take control of the regulation of broker-dealers. He says that government regulation will stifle ingenuity and new product development in the investment banks. But isn’t that financial engineering what got the financial world in this heap of trouble today?

It’s so bad that the majority of people don’t trust their banker any more. In fact, the class-action lawsuits are starting to mount up faster than the rate of homeowner foreclosures, which btw were 250,000 last month and expected to be 1 million in the US over the next four months.

Two years ago I wrote that there would be millions of Americans out on the streets, and that came true. I said the $USD would bite the dust and that commodity prices would boom. I even said that I feared the collapse of preeminent Wall Street houses.

Regrettably, the only solutions I see being offered to the People are 1-800-HELP, but on Friday the President couldn’t even read that correctly from his cue card, which just says it all. Paulson’s solution this week is to help the broker-dealers who are rooted in the problem, so what kind of solution is that? You remove problems, not finance them with the People's money.

If this were only a typical Bear market, where index price levels would drop -20% to -30%, following which life as we know it would go on. If only... But, I fear, it’s too late for that.

I wish I wasn’t so downbeat, but that is the reality I see today. I see lots of problems but no solutions. I see only pretenses for solutions, which will only make these problems worse.

I don’t blame Bernanke. I think he’s a good person. It’s Paulson to blame. The man is out of control. Born with a silver spoon in Palm Beach, Florida, to Marianna Gallaeur and Henry Merritt Paulson, a wholesale jeweler, he’s never had to face life as we know it.

For most of us, life is not so beautiful.

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ADDENDUM: I MISTAKENLY FORGOT TO ADD THE LINKS FOR THE TREND AND RELATIVE STRENGTH STUDIES ON VZ THAT PIERRE BRODEUR HAD DONE. I HAVE CORRECTED THAT NOW.

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