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March 26, 2008
Daily Report for Wed, Mar 26, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Markets closed the day mostly unchanged, despite lots of action, particularly in the flow of negative economic data and in the lower $USD, which propped up the commodities.
The DJIA (-16 -0.13% to 12532.6), S&P 500 (+3.1 +0.23% to 1353) and Nasdaq Composite (+14.3 +0.61% to 2341.1) showed a mixed picture.
The only sector that “popped” was Basic Materials (XLB +3.00%), while Consumer Discretionary (XLY -0.81%) showed the largest loss on the day.
Of the industries, the Goldminers ($XAU +4.84% to 179.47) was the strongest, while Retailers ($RLX -1.08%) was one of the weakest.
Of the Cara 100 stocks, the precious metals miners and royalty companies Goldcorp (GG/G +7.2%) and Silver Wheaton (SLW +6.5%) took the lead along with India’s ICICI Bank (IBN +5.8%), while Garmin (GRMN -3.5%) and Google (GOOG -2.1%) were down. UBS lowered GOOG estimates citing decelerating volume growth and DCLK integration risk. In fact, revenue and earnings growth rates at Google are slowing noticeably.
On the economics front, the January Case-Shiller Home Price Index, measuring home prices in major metropolitan areas, fell to -11.4. Then the Conference Board's March consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest reading since 2003.
Until that data was released and factored into prices in North America, the Asia-Pacific markets had been robust: Australia (+3.34%), Hong Kong (+6.43%), India (+6.03%) and Japan (+2.12%), while the European bourses were up between +3.0% and +3.2%. Later Europe closed up +3.5% for the FTSE (5689) and CAC (4692) and +3.2% for the DAX (6525).
On the corporate deals front, reports after the close indicated that the Clear Channel Communications (CCU) privatization deal is near collapse due to disputes among private-equity firms Thomas H. Lee and Bain Capital Partners LLC and their bankers.
Commodity trading was volatile. The lower USD pushed Crude Oil ($WTIC) higher by $0.36/bbl to close at $101.22. $GOLD jumped +$16.30/oz to $935.00.
The US Treasury bonds rallied a bit on the weaker economic data ($USB +0.22% to 119.06), while yields dropped on the 30-year, 10-year and 5-year instruments ($TYX -0.30% to 4.299) ($TNX -0.85% to 3.492) ($FVX -0.27% to 2.593).
T-Bill yields jumped a further +23.7% to 1.255, after more than doubling in yield on Monday to 1.015 percent, reflecting more liquidity in the banking system.
The $USD closed down -0.91% to 72.21, while the Euro (+1.27% to 156.09), Pound (+0.89% to 200.18) and Yen (+0.59% to 99.84) were strong. The Loonie was unchanged.
This morning at 7:28am, spot gold (946.04++), palladium (449), platinum (1985++) and silver (18.07++) are stronger.
In futures markets, the June Euro is up to 1.5672, the May Crude Oil up to 102.65, and the June DJIA contract down to 12474, reflecting concerns over the Clear Channel deal and possible other private equity deal failures because of the bank credit tightening issue.
The USD is a little weaker, so commodities are likely to lift again.
Overnight, the Asia-Pacific markets were mixed: Australia (+1.22%), Hong Kong (+0.68%), India (-0.81%) and Japan (-0.30%). Shanghai was down -0.63%.
At 7:30am ET, the European bourses are almost flat
Comments & Outlook
After Barron’s on the weekend opined the bottom had been seen, and CNBC “Personalities” and Talking Heads added to the hype this week, Deutsche Bank says that the present banking environment is very challenging and that it is ready to announce further write-downs against the value of its holdings of syndicated debt. Moreover Goldman Sachs analyst Andrew Tilton says that financial institutions have written off just $120 billion of approximately $460 billion in credit losses associated with the bursting of the credit bubble.
Now who do we listen to, the mainstream media or Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs?
Financial media need to be more responsible. People’s savings are at stake. This is not a matter of entertainment or sport. More analysis and less synthesis (ie, story-telling) is required. Where is Walter Cronkite when you need him?
For the past two days I have forced myself to sit in for about five minutes every hour to get a sample of CNBC presentations. It was tough to get through. In fact, as I see it, the General Electric management has to review the situation. CNBC has been reduced to little more than an infomercial.
What concerns me as well is that Bloomberg and BNN seem too eager to be copy-cats, and as for the Fox business network, I won’t even comment.
I think there is an opportunity for a new media operator to come onto the scene and bring legitimacy to financial reporting.
Btw, you know that I often refer to the gnomes who control our lives (as in how come McCain from down and out to being the Republican Party nominee over the course of a weekend). Well, read this quote from Cronkite:
I'm afraid there is [a ruling class in America]. I don't think it serves democracy well... The ruling class is the rich who really command our industry, our commerce, our finance. And those people are able to so manipulate our democracy that they really control our democracy, I feel.– Walter Cronkite, from The American Ruling Class (2005)
There is a truth you know – if you want to hear it.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| GG | 40.010 | +2.700 | +7.2 | 10.4M |
| SLW | 16.570 | +1.010 | +6.5 | 4.1M |
| IBN | 43.000 | +2.339 | +5.8 | 7.2M |
| CHA | 65.170 | +3.480 | +5.6 | 578.4K |
| PBR | 102.440 | +4.840 | +5 | 10.1M |
| VCP | 29.530 | +1.280 | +4.5 | 1.4M |
| TS | 48.430 | +2.090 | +4.5 | 2.3M |
| YHOO | 28.730 | +1.210 | +4.4 | 33.4M |
| NOK | 31.590 | +1.290 | +4.3 | 30.5M |
| CCJ | 34.430 | +1.370 | +4.1 | 3.1M |
| TCK | 39.600 | +1.560 | +4.1 | 1.2M |
| RIO | 33.010 | +1.260 | +4 | 26.3M |
| ABX | 43.550 | +1.610 | +3.8 | 10.7M |
| RIMM | 115.950 | +4.120 | +3.7 | 27.1M |
| CHL | 73.600 | +2.560 | +3.6 | 3M |
| IMO | 52.030 | +1.760 | +3.5 | 297K |
| BBD | 29.180 | +0.980 | +3.5 | 6.4M |
| PTR | 127.170 | +3.970 | +3.2 | 1.6M |
| INFY | 37.400 | +1.100 | +3 | 3.5M |
| NTES | 18.160 | +0.530 | +3 | 929K |
| SU | 96.630 | +2.710 | +2.9 | 2.9M |
| PDA | 51.960 | +1.450 | +2.9 | 146.4K |
| UBS | 30.090 | +0.800 | +2.7 | 7.4M |
| KB | 57.920 | +1.520 | +2.7 | 931.7K |
| HDB | 104.550 | +2.640 | +2.6 | 624.8K |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| GRMN | 60.180 | -2.200 | -3.5 | 7.2M |
| LEH | 45.210 | -1.430 | -3.1 | 21.4M |
| GOOG | 450.780 | -9.780 | -2.1 | 5.8M |
| PAYX | 33.290 | -0.670 | -2 | 4.5M |
| WAG | 38.010 | -0.600 | -1.6 | 5.7M |
| CHRW | 57.030 | -0.820 | -1.4 | 2.5M |
| VIP | 30.590 | -0.400 | -1.3 | 2.6M |
| BBBY | 31.550 | -0.400 | -1.3 | 4.8M |
| AMAT | 20.660 | -0.250 | -1.2 | 26.4M |
| EXC | 78.980 | -0.950 | -1.2 | 3.8M |
| MICC | 101.140 | -1.170 | -1.1 | 677K |
| WMT | 53.050 | -0.580 | -1.1 | 20.3M |
| WFMI | 33.210 | -0.360 | -1.1 | 3M |
| NKE | 68.370 | -0.710 | -1 | 5.1M |
| XOM | 85.200 | -0.750 | -0.9 | 27.1M |
| WHR | 87.670 | -0.710 | -0.8 | 861.7K |
| LLTC | 31.670 | -0.220 | -0.7 | 5M |
| DELL | 20.420 | -0.140 | -0.7 | 20.4M |
| CTSH | 30.560 | -0.200 | -0.7 | 3M |
| PG | 69.540 | -0.430 | -0.6 | 10.6M |
| CCL | 42.110 | -0.240 | -0.6 | 3.8M |
| JNJ | 64.550 | -0.340 | -0.5 | 9.5M |
| BA | 75.900 | -0.390 | -0.5 | 6M |
| BC | 17.850 | -0.070 | -0.4 | 934.9K |
| TGT | 53.440 | -0.200 | -0.4 | 8.9M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. | |||||
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. | |||||
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| GRMN | 60.180 | -3.5 | 7.2M | +68 |
| IBN | 43.000 | +5.8 | 7.2M | +53 |
| NOK | 31.590 | +4.3 | 30.5M | +51 |
| VCP | 29.530 | +4.5 | 1.4M | +33 |
| PTR | 127.170 | +3.2 | 1.6M | +32 |
| CHRW | 57.030 | -1.4 | 2.5M | +31 |
| RY | 47.780 | +2 | 2.2M | +31 |
| RIMM | 115.950 | +3.7 | 27.1M | +29 |
| CHA | 65.170 | +5.6 | 578.4K | +28 |
| DEO | 82.750 | +1.4 | 705.6K | +25 |
| NKE | 68.370 | -1 | 5.1M | +21 |
| PBR | 102.440 | +5 | 10.1M | +19 |
| GFI | 14.470 | +1.3 | 10.2M | +16 |
| PAYX | 33.290 | -2 | 4.5M | +15 |
| COST | 66.590 | +1.7 | 7.6M | +15 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| UBS | Fox-Pitt | --- |
|
--- | Underperform |
|
In-line |
| YHOO | Smith Barney | --- |
|
--- | Hold |
|
Buy |
| CCJ | Merrill Lynch | --- |
|
--- | Neutral |
|
Buy |
| QCOM | Merrill Lynch | --- |
|
--- | Neutral |
|
Buy |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| RY | Desjardins | --- |
|
--- | Hold |
|
Buy |
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| LEH | Oppenheimer | --- |
|
--- | Outperform |
|
Sector Perform |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 53.05 | 75.60 | 71.67 | 70.04 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| KO | 61.41 | 74.48 | 62.56 | 74.75 | |
| GG | 40.01 | 74.02 | 53.97 | 45.24 | |
| RIMM | 115.95 | 73.50 | 64.02 | 70.71 | |
| TT | 46.12 | 72.09 | 71.01 | 62.83 | Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-03-14 at $45.46, +1.45% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| ECA | 73.95 | 72.01 | 61.95 | 45.81 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-03-17 at $76.34, -3.13% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| SLW | 16.57 | 72.01 | 50.57 | 43.43 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-03-17 at $18.17, -8.81% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| ABV | 80.41 | 71.97 | 57.55 | 54.31 | |
| GGB | 31.68 | 71.54 | 58.51 | 49.36 | |
| NUE | 72.89 | 69.70 | 74.10 | 61.14 | Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-03-19 at $68.30, +6.72% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| NKE | 68.37 | 69.63 | 68.41 | 77.56 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-03-25 at $68.37, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| COST | 66.59 | 68.47 | 57.01 | 74.02 | |
| DNA | 80.37 | 60.41 | 70.93 | 61.72 | |
| ORCL | 21.08 | 57.54 | 62.36 | 74.02 | |
| GE | 37.27 | 55.26 | 62.51 | 73.62 | |
| HBC | 82.89 | 51.13 | 64.46 | 72.68 | |
| LLTC | 31.67 | 49.76 | 67.72 | 70.41 | |
| ERTS | 50.18 | 44.74 | 53.05 | 73.16 | |
| ADBE | 36.54 | 41.04 | 53.44 | 71.82 | Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $31.88, +14.62% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| KSS | 46.74 | 27.69 | 55.70 | 70.60 | Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $42.53, +9.90% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| BC | 17.85 | 26.36 | 55.20 | 74.12 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 30.09 | 10.80 | 33.87 | 54.20 | Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $28.85, +4.30% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| SBUX | 17.99 | 15.41 | 38.66 | 55.80 | |
| KB | 57.92 | 20.99 | 39.31 | 59.41 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-24 at $56.40, +2.70% chg], after a 5 day AZ) |
| SNDK | 21.76 | 21.98 | 21.69 | 46.74 | |
| BMY | 21.60 | 22.44 | 32.38 | 52.14 | Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $21.35, +1.17% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| LEH | 45.21 | 23.43 | 42.37 | 49.51 | Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $46.49, -2.75% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| BC | 17.85 | 26.36 | 55.20 | 74.12 | |
| GOL | 16.80 | 27.13 | 36.66 | 59.41 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $16.45, +2.13% chg], after a 8 day AZ) |
| JCP | 43.73 | 27.65 | 48.22 | 61.03 | |
| KSS | 46.74 | 27.69 | 55.70 | 70.60 | Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $42.53, +9.90% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| WFMI | 33.21 | 28.82 | 36.95 | 51.24 | |
| GSK | 43.07 | 29.90 | 40.42 | 60.24 | Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-03-17 at $41.03, +4.97% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| AET | 45.02 | 36.42 | 29.43 | 51.50 | |
| PTR | 127.17 | 41.91 | 28.69 | 44.29 | |
| CHA | 61.69 | 48.28 | 29.99 | 33.32 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
