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March 18, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Mar 18, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Financial turmoil led in the morning on Monday to a crushing of equity market prices and portfolio values of those traders who were not already in cash. But by the end of the day, there was a sense of stability.

On Monday, the collapse of Bear Stearns, which had been the fifth largest investment bank on Wall Street and its dramatic fire-sale take-over by JP Morgan, was the biggest news of at least the past year.

By the end of the day, the DJIA (+21.16 to 11972), S&P 500 (-11.54 to 1276.6), Nasdaq Composite (-35.48 to 2177) and Toronto Composite (12952), held stable after a massive liquidity pump by the Fed that started about 2:00pm ET, following which the DJIA, for example gained about +175 points.

The losing sectors were Energy (XLE -3.49%), Financials (XLF -2.29%) and Basic Materials (XLB -2.20%), while the Utilities (XLU +0.66%) gained a bit.

The Broker-Dealers ($XBD -10.3%) were hammered as the Bear Stearns fiasco erupted. But at noon the $XBD had been down by -14.9%.

International equity markets were also hammered.

Today, the world awaits the FOMC decision at 2:15pm ET. There are expectations of a Fed Rate cut of up to -1.00 point (-100 basis points), which would be dramatic. Yesterday, in an emergency action, the Fed cut its discount window by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.25%.

On the economics front, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March fell to its lowest point ever. US Industrial production for February fell -0.5%, capacity utilization dropped to 80.9%.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -$4.51/bbl to 104.23 under the weight of this worsening macro-economic picture.

$GOLD lifted by +$3.10/oz to 1002.60 as the $USD fell -0.32% to 71.44. The Euro (+0.54% to 157.22) and the Yen (+2.07% to 102.87) were very strong, but the Pound (-1.01% to 202.14) and Cdn Loonie (-1.37% to 100.15) sold off to support the USD.

This morning, the Japanese and Hong Kong equity markets were strong, and so too are the big three of Europe. The DJIA futures are up some +300 points over the noon reading yesterday.

The Euro is 1.5740, Crude Oil at 107.075, and precious metals up a bit overnight but far off yesterday morning highs in the market blow-up. This morning, the gold, palladium, platinum and silver prices at 6:50am ET were 1005.85, 473, 2000 and 20.22.


Comments & Outlook

Had the Federal Reserve Bank not intervened, what is called the credit ring of the global financial services industry would have failed, leading to a collapse of the capital market as one bank after another would have reneged on payments to others, causing a domino effect of bank failures. The concept of financial Armageddon almost became reality.

History is being made in the capital markets. It is prudent for the owners of capital to now stand aside, ie, to withdraw all liquidity, to cause enough of a run on banks that the bottom line is that the weakest financial services companies fail and the strongest return to us, the owners of capital, a market that is free of the most basic conflicts of interest that have existed since the 1933 and 1934 US Securities Act and Regulations that permitted such behavior.

In effect, Wall Street has been hoisted on their own petard.

[From the urban dictionary] Petard: a device contrived to hurt another person; boobytrap; an explosive contraption used in warfare to blow in a door or form a breach in a wall.

To "hoist by one's own petard" means you have been hurt or caught by the very device that you intended to hurt someone else. This phrase is often used mockingly, as if to say that you stepped in your own mess.

The revolution in the financial services industry has begun. Should we join it, the victors will enjoy the spoils, with not much changed. But, if we decide to step back and force their hand, ie, let these banks destroy themselves, the victors will have to return to us with a new and much improved capital market, one that works for us and not against us.

It is time for those who provide services to be the servants and for the owners of capital to be the masters.

A simple philosophy in life, yes, but we all need to get back to the basics.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
JNJ 64.040 +1.390 +2.2 22.1M
GE 34.330 +0.510 +1.5 81.5M
INTC 20.850 +0.190 +0.9 66.9M
GOL 14.860 +0.100 +0.7 659.5K
PDA 48.660 +0.300 +0.6 143.4K
LLTC 29.840 +0.170 +0.6 7.1M
GRMN 57.290 +0.320 +0.6 3.8M
PG 67.050 +0.310 +0.5 17.1M
GSK 41.030 +0.180 +0.4 1.2M
AMAT 20.670 +0.090 +0.4 28M
KO 57.690 +0.160 +0.3 10.8M
WMT 49.950 +0.130 +0.3 22.1M
BC 15.370 +0.030 +0.2 1.7M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
LEH 31.750 -7.510 -19.1 224.5M
IBKR 25.370 -4.350 -14.6 7.5M
IBN 35.160 -5.180 -12.8 12.3M
UBS 24.660 -3.100 -11.2 24.5M
NTES 18.550 -1.630 -8.1 2.8M
HDB 88.060 -7.060 -7.4 1.2M
OXPS 19.560 -1.410 -6.7 3M
SLW 18.170 -1.210 -6.2 5.2M
VIP 29.770 -1.960 -6.2 5M
CHA 62.610 -3.770 -5.7 530.6K
ADBE 30.790 -1.820 -5.6 15.1M
MICC 95.520 -5.630 -5.6 951.6K
CCJ 37.350 -2.150 -5.4 2.8M
BHP 66.820 -3.790 -5.4 5.3M
TCK 41.060 -2.140 -5 2.5M
RIO 32.160 -1.660 -4.9 31.1M
ABB 24.260 -1.220 -4.8 6M
IMO 51.720 -2.500 -4.6 795.4K
TS 46.880 -2.220 -4.5 3.6M
KB 52.050 -2.400 -4.4 1.1M
PBR 103.570 -4.650 -4.3 10.8M
GOOG 419.870 -18.050 -4.1 7.9M
ECA 76.340 -3.250 -4.1 3.4M
ERJ 40.460 -1.680 -4 1.1M
CEO 149.990 -6.160 -3.9 726.7K

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
GG 46.300 44.220 -1.370 -3.01 11.91M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
IBN 33.670 35.160 -5.180 -12.84 12.34M
OXPS 18.550 19.560 -1.410 -6.72 2.99M
ADBE 30.700 30.790 -1.820 -5.58 15.06M
KB 50.860 52.050 -2.400 -4.41 1.13M
GOOG 412.110 419.870 -18.050 -4.12 7.86M
GS 140.270 151.020 -5.840 -3.72 38.66M
RY 43.060 44.480 -1.690 -3.66 2.08M
CCL 36.100 36.480 -1.370 -3.62 6.01M
BDK 61.710 62.470 -2.120 -3.28 1.53M
DB 102.360 105.830 -3.050 -2.80 1.19M
INFY 32.650 33.010 -0.930 -2.74 3.36M
WFMI 29.990 30.650 -0.520 -1.67 3.91M
BMY 20.050 20.460 -0.180 -0.87 19.19M
GOL 14.060 14.860 +0.100 +0.68 659.50K

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
LEH 31.750 -19.1 224.5M +820
IBKR 25.370 -14.6 7.5M +652
IBN 35.160 -12.8 12.3M +253
UBS 24.660 -11.2 24.5M +192
GS 151.020 -3.7 38.7M +177
TT 45.460 +0 7.3M +158
OXPS 19.560 -6.7 3M +142
NTES 18.550 -8.1 2.8M +106
ADBE 30.790 -5.6 15.1M +94
CHRW 51.530 -2.1 3M +87
SBUX 17.260 -0.7 22.7M +82
JNJ 64.040 +2.2 22.1M +78
HDB 88.060 -7.4 1.2M +77
CTSH 26.810 -1.7 6.7M +77
DEO 79.120 -2 910.5K +73
IMO 51.720 -4.6 795.4K +71
GE 34.330 +1.5 81.5M +68
DB 105.830 -2.8 1.2M +67
VIP 29.770 -6.2 5M +63
EXC 79.390 -0.5 5.3M +56
KSS 39.970 -3.4 7.6M +47
BBBY 28.820 -0.1 7.3M +47
TM 99.200 -1.1 954.1K +45
KB 52.050 -4.4 1.1M +45
PBR 103.570 -4.3 10.8M +44

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
XOM CSFB --- 102.00 Neutral Outperform

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
DB Fox-Pitt --- --- Outperform In-line
INFY Oppenheimer --- --- Outperform Sector Perform
NKE Caris & Co --- --- Buy Above Average
• PREVIOUS SESSION
BBD Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Neutral


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
GG44.2280.8669.9356.57Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-03-07 at $42.75, +3.44% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ATVI26.5477.6851.7136.45
ABX52.3276.0860.9855.37
ECA76.3476.0174.1850.27Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-03-17 at $76.34, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
SLW18.1775.9765.6752.43Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-03-17 at $18.17, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
GGB32.2475.7361.1251.96
TT45.4671.5267.4051.23Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-14 at $45.46, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
NUE70.4266.9871.0960.18Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-03-06 at $68.50, +2.80% chg], after a 1 day DZ)

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX17.2614.4127.7638.08Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $17.74, -2.71% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
UBS24.6614.849.5617.27Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
KB52.0518.9021.4022.09Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
LEH31.7519.8517.8715.17Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
SNDK21.6020.3220.3634.33Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-03-12 at $22.52, -4.09% chg], after a 8 day AZ)
BC15.3724.4933.5738.93
DELL19.3926.2028.2241.80
INFY33.0126.6325.8921.73Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
GOL14.8626.6718.7822.82Accumulation Zone (for 8 days)
BMY20.4626.7716.9820.02Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
PAYX31.0126.9730.3538.05Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $31.63, -1.96% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
JCP37.5627.2430.7316.25
GSK41.0327.4028.4831.11Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-03-17 at $41.03, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
KSS39.9728.5529.5024.06Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
ADBE30.7928.7721.8624.31Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
TGP27.3028.9734.0616.08
DB105.8330.4127.1033.24
WFMI30.6530.5623.3013.48
BDK62.4731.9729.8532.75Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $64.94, -3.80% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
GS151.0232.5021.0527.78
OXPS19.5633.4114.5926.93
CCL36.4833.8931.0627.38
TM99.2034.0732.2628.11
GOOG419.8734.1319.3428.97
AET42.8234.2016.7424.63
IBN35.1634.9421.2517.19
TGT48.5035.3132.7918.23
CTSH26.8135.8931.6026.93
ERJ40.4637.6736.9928.25
RY44.4839.8227.5925.76
IBKR25.3740.4330.0718.87
MFC34.6340.5732.1821.45
PTR124.0440.7624.7826.58
HDB88.0641.9225.2127.45
QCOM38.5044.6438.7627.35
YHOO25.8547.5645.1321.53
NOK31.0948.3930.8020.29
CHA62.6148.5734.0827.27
NTES18.5551.3843.9720.51
CHL67.5851.6029.3331.96
MICC95.5255.0939.1727.41
VIP29.7755.6834.3728.45
VCP28.1456.2742.0729.03
IMO51.8861.6646.9327.82
PBR103.5766.6844.2327.53


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
JPM 40.31 3.77 10.32% 10.50% 1.23% -6.80% -4.41% -9.48% -11.00% -14.29%
CAT 74.46 -0.33 -0.44% 8.35% 1.72% 6.45% 5.42% 4.64% 1.04% 17.89%
GE 34.33 0.51 1.51% 8.30% 2.78% -0.12% -6.61% -5.89% -14.56% -0.09%
JNJ 64.04 1.39 2.22% 4.42% 2.91% 1.81% -2.84% -5.20% 1.75% 5.83%
AXP 41.71 0.70 1.71% 4.17% -0.88% -7.54% -18.28% -20.07% -28.33% -24.91%
AA 37.10 -1.29 -3.36% 4.10% -3.18% 3.86% 2.68% 9.44% 5.31% 10.81%
XOM 85.79 -0.12 -0.14% 4.04% -2.23% 0.49% -8.26% -4.56% -3.89% 22.80%
MMM 78.51 0.98 1.26% 4.01% 0.03% -1.80% -5.08% -8.48% -11.72% 4.29%
DD 45.83 -1.15 -2.45% 3.66% -1.82% 0.75% 4.78% 5.02% -4.08% -8.27%
INTC 20.85 0.19 0.92% 3.63% 4.20% 3.68% -17.75% -18.93% -16.10% 8.88%
T 35.79 0.76 2.17% 3.29% 2.08% -5.52% -12.71% -11.63% -10.52% -3.22%
HD 25.70 -0.05 -0.19% 2.80% -5.13% -6.61% -1.57% -0.93% -27.36% -31.48%
WMT 49.95 0.13 0.26% 2.25% 0.12% 1.03% 6.50% 4.43% 15.30% 8.09%
UTX 67.56 -0.15 -0.22% 2.01% -2.65% -5.55% -10.17% -9.97% -10.91% 4.58%
PG 67.05 0.31 0.46% 1.96% 1.06% 1.13% -7.27% -8.45% -1.32% 8.83%
BAC 35.96 0.27 0.76% 1.84% -8.22% -15.78% -11.34% -13.76% -27.37% -27.53%
BA 75.49 -0.74 -0.97% 1.49% -6.42% -11.38% -12.85% -13.63% -23.47% -16.12%
MRK 41.85 0.88 2.15% 1.43% -5.02% -11.95% -27.05% -29.65% -15.30% -2.88%
IBM 115.55 0.32 0.28% 1.35% 1.16% 8.85% 10.37% 10.54% 0.90% 23.91%
MCD 54.28 -0.50 -0.91% 0.89% 2.11% -1.84% -6.57% -9.17% -0.66% 24.84%
MSFT 28.30 0.34 1.22% 0.89% 4.85% -0.42% -19.65% -17.71% -1.50% 3.55%
VZ 34.61 0.79 2.34% 0.70% -4.63% -8.51% -19.90% -19.70% -18.74% -4.71%
DIS 30.46 -0.32 -1.04% 0.00% -6.02% -6.25% -4.33% -7.67% -8.75% -9.37%
HPQ 46.42 0.50 1.09% -0.62% -2.48% 5.81% -6.81% -8.86% -5.54% 16.31%
CVX 84.19 -1.15 -1.35% -0.64% -3.45% 0.71% -9.92% -6.43% -7.41% 23.66%
KO 57.69 0.16 0.28% -1.65% -2.25% -1.82%</