The DJIA (-293.00 -2.36% to 12100), S&P 500 (-32.32 -2.43% to 1298.42), Nasdaq Composite (-58.30 -2.57% to 2210), and the Toronto Composite (-427 -3.25% to 12709) all gave up a large part of the prior day’s immense gains.

Earlier in the day, Asia-Pacific markets rallied on spillover from that previous day US rally, while during the day European shares traded down. The FTSE, CAC and DAX closed down to 5545.6, 4556, and 6361.2, respectively.

In Europe there were rumors flying that the Swiss government has been discussing a takeover proposal of UBS with Credit Suisse (CS). That seems ludicrous on the basis of the latest news that Credit Suisse warned it may report a Q1 loss of -$2.9 billion due to “deteriorating market conditions this month”, and it cut $799 million from 2007 profit after saying its traders had “intentionally mispriced assets”.

The Swiss media also mentioned Deutsche Bank (DB) and HSBC (HBC) as potential buyers of UBS. But Deutsche Bank’s own disheartening tale is being told by Fortune magazine.

Additionally yesterday, trading in Heritage Financial Group (HBOS) were suspended for a time on the FTSE following a sharp drop that started with rumors of critical exposure to a Credit Default Swap (CDS) position.

In New York, equities lost the traction of the previous day’s huge rally shortly after a strong open. It was a quadruple witching session that featured a steep correction in commodities. Crushed were the Basic Materials (XLB -6.77%) and Energy (XLE -6.11%).

The worst hit industry groups were the Goldminers ($XAU -7.67%) and NatGas ($XNG -5.84%). Healthcare, hospitals and drugs were the defensive play of the day.

The IPO of Visa (V), expected to raise $19.7 billion, was the second biggest corporate underwriting ever, and the biggest in US history.

This underwriting put $12 billion into the treasuries of JP Morgan, Bank of America, National City Bank, Citigroup, US Bancorp, Wells Fargo Bank and other banks that owned this credit card transactions processor. Some pundits are saying that the extreme rally of the prior day was a bank-led one that facilitated a successful IPO.

On the earnings front, Morgan Stanley (MS) posted a -43% drop in Q1 net earnings from $2.66 billion ($2.17 EPS) to $1.53 billion ($1.45 EPS), due to -$2.3 billion in write-downs. Morgan Stanley guided the Street to $1.03 EPS, and then did a write-down that resulted in a “surprise” of $1.45 EPS. But, that is the way Wall Street operates these days.

Washington’s Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) too helped support the equity market with a timely cut in the capital reserves that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) must hold from 30% to 20%.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) plunged -$5.96/bbl (-5.5%) to a close of 102.54, despite a smaller-than-expected build in inventories. Crude stockpiles increased +133,000, which was well below estimates. Gasoline inventories fell by -3.45 million and distillates fell by -2.91 million. But oil prices collapsed because of trading in the futures markets that was affected by economic recession fears, profit-taking and higher margins at futures trading firms like MF Global.

The US Dollar finished up (+0.60%) to 72.19. The Euro dropped (-0.82%) to 1.5644. The Pound also dropped (-1.60%) to 198.49 as more economic troubles are seen in the UK and Europe. The Yen dropped (-0.82%) to 100.99. The Cdn Loonie dropped hardest (-1.89%) to 98.60.

For the same reasons that oil and other commodities were hit hard yesterday, $GOLD plunged -$59.00/oz (-5.87%) to 945.30. Earlier this morning the spot price was down to 904.50, which is a remarkable fall from its high of 1029/oz on Monday morning.

The spot precious metal prices are trading wildly at the moment. But as the Euro and Oil prices are falling and the $USD rising in futures markets, more downward pressure is being brought to bear on the precious metals.

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Comments & Outlook

Did you notice the number of well-known Talking Heads who showed up on Financial Entertainment TV or in headlines yesterday telling their story that gold is going to crash?

Actually this is comical. These people are terrific at telling you what’s already happened. They tell you the target after they see the result. They are the same people who a few weeks ago were saying that gold was going to $2000/oz.

It’s all part of the nonsense that masquerades as analysis, forecasting and media. There are so many really good wealth managers and independent financial analysts around that it pains me to see legitimate media like BNN-TV give any airtime to charlatans.

Yesterday as Gold plunged, which you know I have been saying would happen, there was a story out that MF Global was in trouble and that margin requirements for trading Contracts For Difference had been hugely increased at that firm, causing massive selling, which was knocking commodity prices down.

Actually, if MF Global is (it probably is) in trouble, the clients merely flee the broker and move their accounts to another. The problem is counter-party risk. That means if MF Global doesn’t pay, the credit ring is broken and one brokerage house after another fails. This is no different than the Bear Stearns situation.

The bottom line is that, in order to jury-rig a collapsing global economy and financial system, the $USD was taken down, which propped up all other currencies. That caused a bubble in commodities. And, I told you, in advance, that gold would be the last one off the dance floor before the music stopped.

Yesterday, gold left the dance floor. Before it happened, I wrote to you, early in the morning,

Also, the gold stock leader Barrick (ABX) is in real trouble. For the change of trend to be confirmed, there is a need for a Triple Bottom ($49 on ABX.T) breakdown to $48.00. If any of you own this Cara 100 stock, it is the time to be very cautious. It is the reason I published a Buy/Sell Advisory on Goldcorp (GG/G), in which I opined the GG price was headed much lower.

You read about these things here before they happen. Proof of concept.

The trend change has now been confirmed. ABX.T dropped -$3.3 (-6.74%) to 45.96 yesterday, and ABX on the NYSE dropped -$4.33 (-8.73%) to 45.25.

In the other "Proof", I issued a report on Goldcorp on Feb 28, to a restricted audience of 205 subscribers, at the peak close of $44.71, saying that, while the entire Street was recommending it, which I backed up with ten current research reports, I was giving the specific recommendation that as soon as the RSI-7 on the Daily price series data dropped below 70 traders should buy short-dated put options. I told the reader how they should play this for 100+% trading profits within a year.

Moreover, as gold was moving from 967 to 1029 early this Monday morning, I held firm. I even went so far as to state flat-out in the Week In Review on Sunday that my scenario would play out soon, after which I’d print the usual Proof of Concept claim.

You tell me whether I was right about what I wrote in the Feb 28 report?

Given that I believe there will be a sudden and sharp pull-back in the Price of Gold into the low 800’s within 2008, I believe there is a risk in holding the stock in the high 40’s. I believe there will be a pull-back of -30 pct in the stock price to about $31.50 this year, which would be an attractive buying opportunity.

Well, this week the price of gold gold has collapsed, and in three weeks Goldcorp (GG) dropped from $44.71 to $38.71, which is a loss of -13.4%. Today, like Barrick, Goldcorp will see further losses.

The point of this is I had no clue three weeks ago that Bear Stearns and MF Global, and a list of others, were in death throes (although I did say the banks were cooked), but I did believe that economic reality would set in and that the international currencies would soon reverse trend against the $USD, which would drive the price of commodities into a “sudden and sharp pull-back”.

The gain on those puts in three weeks is several hundred percent.

And gold which hit a high of 1029 on Monday hit a low, just before 6am ET this morning, of 904.50 for a drop of -$125 in three days, which qualifies as a “sudden and sharp pull-back”.

If you agree that my crystal ball works more than on pure chance, let me opine that Financial Entertainment TV is now dead and buried. Those are ghosts that are showing up to work. The public has had it to the teeth with the media’s misinformation, and worse, the disinformation.

I’m looking forward to spending time with family this Easter. I hope you do as well. Family is the real deal.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
GG	38.71	74.86	51.11	30.95
ATVI	26.06	73.56	47.38	34.02
WMT	50.78	70.57	63.15	60.29
AMAT	20.67	61.25	70.24	52.52

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SBUX	17.50	12.90	29.26	45.90	Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $17.74, -1.35% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
UBS	26.65	13.24	17.77	37.86	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $28.85, -7.63% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
KB	48.78	13.72	20.27	16.11	Accumulation Zone (for 4 days)
SNDK	20.76	19.59	13.86	33.17	Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-03-12 at $22.52, -7.82% chg], after a 8 day AZ)
LEH	42.23	24.26	24.99	45.67	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $46.49, -9.16% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BC	16.34	24.65	41.01	58.57
GSK	41.54	25.25	25.44	42.02	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-17 at $41.03, +1.24% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
JCP	39.01	25.44	31.88	34.29
KSS	42.80	25.93	38.76	50.55	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $42.53, +0.63% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
INFY	33.38	26.06	24.94	31.90	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $34.47, -3.16% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
GOL	15.76	26.86	22.76	45.67	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $16.45, -4.19% chg], after a 8 day AZ)
BMY	21.46	27.28	21.53	47.41	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-18 at $21.35, +0.52% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
DB	108.16	27.99	35.13	44.55
DELL	19.51	28.57	32.37	46.02
WFMI	31.13	28.67	24.97	31.82
PAYX	31.85	28.83	33.27	54.02	Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $31.63, +0.70% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
TGP	27.30	30.20	31.26	20.15
AET	42.30	30.55	14.71	23.72
BA	73.45	30.58	25.94	34.01	Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-13 at $74.18, -0.98% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
OXPS	20.38	34.45	15.59	38.87
CCL	37.60	34.49	28.80	41.39
GOOG	432.00	34.75	15.99	41.59
IBN	35.52	35.16	18.67	29.14
CCJ	33.89	38.64	36.35	27.31
NTES	16.25	39.28	32.73	13.53
RY	44.78	40.40	28.82	36.36
PTR	120.63	41.10	23.69	30.39
HDB	92.00	44.45	28.03	39.64
NOK	29.33	45.10	28.01	25.81
CHA	60.33	46.60	28.82	27.88
CHL	67.21	50.49	25.88	37.51
CEO	138.63	51.91	38.95	25.24
SU	95.68	55.17	42.44	29.33
IMO	50.32	58.17	41.90	28.75
PBR	97.45	60.96	37.78	25.20
ABX	45.25	64.67	41.93	25.90

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JPM	42.47	-0.19	-0.45%	10.00%	9.63%	-1.58%	0.71%	-3.43%	-10.72%	-10.74%
GE	35.59	-0.55	-1.52%	4.80%	5.70%	3.58%	-3.18%	-2.68%	-14.80%	2.65%
BAC	38.56	-0.37	-0.95%	4.13%	2.69%	-10.26%	-4.93%	-7.29%	-24.50%	-23.45%
JNJ	64.88	-0.00	0.00%	3.73%	2.77%	2.61%	-1.56%	-3.62%	0.60%	6.83%
HD	26.84	-0.35	-1.29%	2.72%	0.30%	-3.17%	2.80%	2.29%	-25.82%	-28.84%
T	36.05	-0.72	-1.96%	2.07%	1.69%	4.92%	-12.07%	-9.74%	-13.30%	-4.07%
VZ	35.13	-0.16	-0.45%	1.59%	-2.28%	-0.31%	-18.70%	-19.52%	-19.76%	-4.41%
BA	73.45	-3.08	-4.02%	1.38%	-9.00%	-12.56%	-15.20%	-15.20%	-26.56%	-18.68%
MMM	79.47	-1.48	-1.83%	1.34%	0.68%	-0.59%	-3.92%	-6.43%	-13.58%	4.07%
KO	59.96	0.55	0.93%	1.30%	0.47%	2.90%	-1.85%	-4.60%	5.90%	26.68%
MRK	42.99	-0.20	-0.46%	1.27%	-0.60%	-8.57%	-25.07%	-27.55%	-16.62%	-0.99%
PG	67.81	-0.77	-1.12%	1.15%	1.66%	2.48%	-6.22%	-7.08%	-1.42%	9.41%
WMT	50.78	-0.20	-0.39%	0.97%	2.48%	2.17%	8.27%	5.62%	13.47%	8.99%
UTX	68.76	-0.44	-0.64%	0.82%	-1.39%	-4.57%	-8.58%	-9.29%	-12.85%	5.67%
MSFT	28.62	-0.80	-2.72%	-0.03%	1.78%	1.42%	-18.74%	-17.73%	-0.17%	2.84%
MCD	53.66	-1.19	-2.17%	-0.07%	-0.52%	-4.52%	-7.64%	-8.82%	-3.16%	22.32%
IBM	116.94	-1.47	-1.24%	-0.11%	1.34%	8.43%	11.70%	9.15%	0.23%	24.42%
INTC	21.09	-0.66	-3.03%	-0.14%	4.41%	3.48%	-16.81%	-19.47%	-17.87%	10.36%
DIS	31.24	-0.48	-1.51%	-0.54%	-1.26%	-4.11%	-1.88%	-3.16%	-9.61%	-8.36%
HPQ	46.59	-1.34	-2.80%	-1.44%	-3.56%	-1.79%	-6.46%	-8.91%	-6.41%	15.87%
AXP	42.00	-1.71	-3.91%	-1.73%	-0.54%	-7.28%	-17.71%	-19.09%	-31.09%	-25.05%
XOM	84.43	-3.91	-4.43%	-1.79%	-3.17%	-4.17%	-9.71%	-7.66%	-8.35%	18.75%
CAT	73.73	-3.14	-4.08%	-2.02%	2.62%	3.48%	4.39%	4.08%	-5.37%	14.90%
DD	45.47	-2.00	-4.21%	-2.38%	-3.87%	-2.13%	3.96%	6.79%	-8.84%	-10.60%
PFE	20.61	0.19	0.93%	-3.15%	-6.53%	-8.28%	-10.04%	-11.43%	-17.16%	-18.73%
AIG	42.18	-1.49	-3.41%	-3.37%	-5.45%	-11.94%	-25.08%	-25.86%	-37.57%	-37.84%
C	20.41	-0.30	-1.45%	-3.77%	-7.86%	-19.93%	-29.43%	-32.44%	-57.72%	-59.23%
CVX	81.89	-4.23	-4.91%	-5.58%	-7.77%	-5.15%	-12.38%	-9.91%	-12.98%	18.03%
AA	35.62	-2.98	-7.72%	-5.74%	-7.98%	-3.29%	-1.41%	3.28%	-4.45%	4.89%
GM	19.03	-0.38	-1.96%	-9.08%	-17.15%	-25.49%	-22.04%	-28.62%