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March 14, 2008
Daily Report for Fri, Mar 14, 2008
Markets Re-cap
A round of negatives such as (i) $400 million in margin defaults by Carlyle Capital's $21.7 billion fund leading to its liquidation, (ii) a fresh all-time record low for the US Dollar, and (iii) weak February Retail Sales data led to a 230 point decline in the first 75 minutes Thursday morning.
Then the Interventionists arrived on the scene. Standard & Poor’s supposedly independent ratings group opined that the end is near for sub-prime mortgage related Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) write-downs at big financial institutions. Hence the rally.
The DJIA (+35.5 +0.29 pct to 12145.7), S&P 500 (+6.71 +0.51 pct to 1315.5), Nasdaq Composite (+19.74 +0.88 pct to 2263.6) and Toronto Composite (+1.10 pct to 13443) closed in positive territory.
The leading sectors were Basic Materials (XLB +2.44 pct), Energy and Industrials. The Consumer sectors, Financials and Technology were not strong.
Among industry groups, the Goldminers ($XAU +3.49 pct) and NatGas ($XNG +2.42 pct) were strong. Papers, drugs, hospitals were weak, but not by so much.
Of the stocks in my monitor that were up most, there was Nucor (NUE +7.4 pct) plus Barrick, Goldcorp, Gold Fields, and Silver Wheaton. The losers were HDB, PTR and YHOO.
US Retail Sales for February dropped -0.6 pct; analysts had called for a modest advance. Import prices for February increased +0.2 pct.
Crude Oil ($WTIC) ended the day higher by +0.55 pct at an all-time session closing record $109.17/bbl.
The $USD sank -0.48 pct to an all-time record low close of 71.99. The Euro, Pound and Yen gained +0.31 pct, +0.22 pct and +0.73 pct to 1.5536, 202.86 and 98.79, respectively.
With the rally into equities, the 30-year Treasury bond sold down by -0.52 pct to 119.39 as the yield ($TYX) gained +0.31 pct to 4.454. The 10-year yield gained +1.46 pct to 3.534.
Precious metals ($GOLD +1.36 pct to 993.80) gained sharply with the $USD decline.
This morning the Asia-Pacific equity markets closed mixed. The ones that were lower are: Nikkei 225 -1.54 pct to 12241; Shanghai Composite -0.22 pct to 3962.7; and Hong Kong -0.29 pct to 22237. The winners were: Australia +1.40 pct to 5288.5; and India’s Sensex BSE 30 +2.63 pct to 15760.5.
Today in Europe at 8:56am, the FTSE, CAC and DAX are up +0.80 pct, +0.94 pct and +1.06 pct respectively, which is a gain of about +0.75 pct in the past hour, which is evidence of the strengthening markets early today as US inflation data is not as bad as expected.
In the futures market at this time, the futures are in extreme action: the March Euro is up to 1.5589; April Crude Oil is 110.725; and the DJIA March futures are down a couple hundred points from this time yesterday at 11973.
At 9:00am ET, the Spot gold, palladium, platinum and silver prices are down a bit from yesterday morning at this point: 994.34, 501, 2104.5 and 20.54.
Comments & Outlook
The US inflation data is being spun any possible way to try to regain consumer confidence. Today the spin is that inflation is under control.
Yesterday, in the US equity market, even the rally did not extend to the consumer sectors (health, discretionary and staples spending), financials or tech. And the rally was based on the economic sectors that are boosted by inflation: basic materials, energy and industrials.
I think the market has it right.
I do think we are at a peak though for the commodity play, and that the $USD may now start to strengthen. I would not be short the $USD or long Oil/Gold.
I would also not be long Banks and Brokers like Bear Stearns and BMO.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| NUE | 72.470 | +4.970 | +7.4 | 11.1M |
| ABX | 53.050 | +2.410 | +4.8 | 9.7M |
| GFI | 16.430 | +0.730 | +4.6 | 10.8M |
| SLW | 19.170 | +0.830 | +4.5 | 5.4M |
| GG | 44.850 | +1.850 | +4.3 | 9.2M |
| RIMM | 105.650 | +4.260 | +4.2 | 26.2M |
| ECA | 78.910 | +2.510 | +3.3 | 5.8M |
| CCJ | 39.760 | +1.180 | +3.1 | 2.8M |
| MBT | 80.910 | +2.030 | +2.6 | 2.2M |
| OXPS | 21.440 | +0.530 | +2.5 | 2.5M |
| BA | 74.180 | +1.730 | +2.4 | 10.9M |
| LEH | 45.990 | +1.040 | +2.3 | 35.2M |
| TS | 49.890 | +1.120 | +2.3 | 3.7M |
| BC | 15.820 | +0.340 | +2.2 | 1.1M |
| SNDK | 23.000 | +0.480 | +2.1 | 14.8M |
| NKE | 61.030 | +1.270 | +2.1 | 4.8M |
| CCL | 39.230 | +0.780 | +2 | 6.1M |
| GGB | 33.340 | +0.660 | +2 | 3.2M |
| NOK | 32.680 | +0.580 | +1.8 | 19M |
| SU | 108.280 | +1.860 | +1.7 | 2.5M |
| BDK | 66.220 | +1.090 | +1.7 | 792.4K |
| CHRW | 53.670 | +0.870 | +1.6 | 1.6M |
| DNA | 81.430 | +1.280 | +1.6 | 5.9M |
| EXC | 80.660 | +1.220 | +1.5 | 3.7M |
| ATVI | 27.230 | +0.410 | +1.5 | 3.5M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| HDB | 98.100 | -3.790 | -3.7 | 1.2M |
| PTR | 133.140 | -4.880 | -3.5 | 1.5M |
| YHOO | 27.500 | -0.950 | -3.3 | 75.4M |
| PDA | 50.500 | -1.500 | -2.9 | 140.6K |
| WFMI | 31.880 | -0.870 | -2.7 | 6.4M |
| GOL | 15.200 | -0.390 | -2.5 | 1.1M |
| CEO | 165.250 | -3.750 | -2.2 | 674K |
| PBR | 111.870 | -2.510 | -2.2 | 8.6M |
| ERJ | 41.790 | -0.770 | -1.8 | 943.4K |
| IBN | 42.240 | -0.760 | -1.8 | 5M |
| KSS | 41.570 | -0.710 | -1.7 | 7.6M |
| GSK | 41.440 | -0.680 | -1.6 | 1.4M |
| CHL | 70.720 | -1.020 | -1.4 | 3.9M |
| CHA | 71.580 | -0.990 | -1.4 | 462.1K |
| TGP | 27.800 | -0.340 | -1.2 | 67.9K |
| INFY | 34.930 | -0.400 | -1.1 | 3.2M |
| TGT | 50.560 | -0.530 | -1 | 17.4M |
| NTES | 20.240 | -0.200 | -1 | 746.8K |
| UBS | 30.290 | -0.280 | -0.9 | 12.4M |
| CSCO | 24.950 | -0.190 | -0.8 | 76.3M |
| COST | 62.170 | -0.430 | -0.7 | 7.3M |
| CTSH | 28.690 | -0.170 | -0.6 | 3.5M |
| PAYX | 31.510 | -0.150 | -0.5 | 3.4M |
| KO | 58.930 | -0.260 | -0.4 | 8.8M |
| SWK | 48.460 | -0.200 | -0.4 | 983.3K |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NUE | 73.140 | 72.470 | +4.970 | +7.36 | 11.07M |
| SLW | 19.200 | 19.170 | +0.830 | +4.53 | 5.39M |
| GG | 44.950 | 44.850 | +1.850 | +4.30 | 9.18M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| WFMI | 31.120 | 31.880 | -0.870 | -2.66 | 6.42M |
| GOL | 14.720 | 15.200 | -0.390 | -2.50 | 1.14M |
| INFY | 33.800 | 34.930 | -0.400 | -1.13 | 3.19M |
| BMY | 20.900 | 21.410 | +0.050 | +0.23 | 11.77M |
| CCL | 37.410 | 39.230 | +0.780 | +2.03 | 6.13M |
| BA | 71.585 | 74.180 | +1.730 | +2.39 | 10.85M |
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| YHOO | 27.500 | -3.3 | 75.4M | +145 |
| OXPS | 21.440 | +2.5 | 2.5M | +118 |
| NUE | 72.470 | +7.4 | 11.1M | +110 |
| HDB | 98.100 | -3.7 | 1.2M | +102 |
| KB | 57.600 | -0 | 1.4M | +98 |
| SNDK | 23.000 | +2.1 | 14.8M | +78 |
| LEH | 45.990 | +2.3 | 35.2M | +73 |
| WFMI | 31.880 | -2.7 | 6.4M | +71 |
| ECA | 78.910 | +3.3 | 5.8M | +69 |
| TGT | 50.560 | -1 | 17.4M | +67 |
| RY | 48.020 | +0.5 | 2.4M | +66 |
| UBS | 30.290 | -0.9 | 12.4M | +61 |
| WBK | 108.310 | +1.2 | 46.6K | +56 |
| IBN | 42.240 | -1.8 | 5M | +54 |
| BA | 74.180 | +2.4 | 10.9M | +54 |
| MFC | 36.380 | -0.4 | 2.4M | +53 |
| TCK | 43.500 | +0.2 | 2.4M | +52 |
| NKE | 61.030 | +2.1 | 4.8M | +51 |
| JCP | 39.680 | -0.3 | 9.5M | +50 |
| KSS | 41.570 | -1.7 | 7.6M | +48 |
| CCL | 39.230 | +2 | 6.1M | +47 |
| IMO | 55.990 | +0.6 | 665.3K | +45 |
| GS | 165.440 | +1.5 | 18.6M | +44 |
| BBBY | 28.550 | +0.2 | 6.5M | +42 |
| GE | 34.250 | +0.9 | 64.5M | +41 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| QCOM | Am Tech | --- |
|
52.00 | Neutral |
|
Buy |
| NOK | WestLB | --- |
|
--- | Add |
|
Buy |
| NOK | Oppenheimer | --- |
|
40.00 | Sector Perform |
|
Outperform |
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| UBS | Keefe Bruyette | --- |
|
--- | Mkt Perform |
|
Underperform |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBR | 111.87 | 80.11 | 52.43 | 42.44 | |
| GGB | 33.34 | 79.04 | 65.54 | 62.81 | Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-03-04 at $31.29, +6.55% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| ECA | 78.91 | 77.72 | 76.18 | 74.51 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| ATVI | 27.23 | 76.62 | 59.68 | 52.87 | |
| GG | 44.85 | 75.60 | 75.22 | 64.53 | Sell alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-03-07 at $42.75, +4.91% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| ABV | 79.95 | 75.03 | 56.83 | 50.01 | |
| SLW | 19.17 | 74.00 | 72.57 | 72.40 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| RIO | 34.18 | 73.87 | 55.27 | 51.76 | |
| TT | 45.88 | 73.40 | 72.34 | 70.77 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| ABX | 53.05 | 73.33 | 65.61 | 61.92 | |
| RIMM | 105.65 | 72.08 | 54.83 | 60.76 | |
| NUE | 72.47 | 70.46 | 78.78 | 70.05 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| AMAT | 21.06 | 62.47 | 71.18 | 71.05 | |
| DNA | 81.43 | 61.20 | 82.07 | 73.22 | |
| TS | 49.89 | 59.22 | 72.31 | 74.52 | |
| TCK | 43.50 | 56.71 | 72.47 | 68.44 | |
| GFI | 16.43 | 49.18 | 59.54 | 71.54 | |
| INTC | 21.28 | 42.00 | 45.67 | 71.45 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 17.63 | 15.41 | 29.44 | 46.18 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $17.74, -0.62% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| UBS | 30.29 | 20.67 | 19.39 | 40.59 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $30.13, +0.53% chg], after a 6 day AZ) |
| SNDK | 23.00 | 21.82 | 24.85 | 50.06 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-03-12 at $22.52, +2.13% chg], after a 8 day AZ) |
| BC | 15.82 | 24.35 | 35.82 | 46.36 | |
| KB | 57.60 | 25.56 | 28.14 | 39.87 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $58.45, -1.45% chg], after a 3 day AZ) |
| LEH | 45.99 | 25.66 | 24.65 | 38.57 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $46.31, -0.69% chg], after a 3 day AZ) |
| GSK | 41.44 | 25.68 | 23.23 | 32.05 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $41.86, -1.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| BMY | 21.41 | 26.78 | 20.36 | 31.87 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $21.73, -1.47% chg], after a 3 day AZ) |
| BA | 74.18 | 26.86 | 31.78 | 29.91 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-03-13 at $74.18, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| PAYX | 31.51 | 26.90 | 32.29 | 46.29 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $31.63, -0.38% chg], after a 3 day AZ) |
| DELL | 19.85 | 27.05 | 39.04 | 53.05 | |
| TGP | 27.80 | 27.97 | 35.19 | 17.41 | |
| ADBE | 33.30 | 28.22 | 34.39 | 50.08 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-03-11 at $32.60, +2.15% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| GOL | 15.20 | 28.48 | 23.60 | 23.34 | Accumulation Zone (for 6 days) |
| JCP | 39.68 | 29.02 | 35.14 | 21.87 | |
| INFY | 34.93 | 29.08 | 25.26 | 29.46 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| WFMI | 31.88 | 31.35 | 25.81 | 18.44 | |
| OXPS | 21.44 | 34.28 | 21.69 | 40.07 | |
| GOOG | 443.01 | 35.89 | 23.98 | 42.10 | |
| AET | 44.68 | 36.21 | 19.69 | 31.41 | |
| TGT | 50.56 | 37.04 | 41.32 | 29.29 | |
| IBN | 42.24 | 41.24 | 17.28 | 28.89 | |
| PTR | 133.14 | 41.60 | 28.00 | 36.45 | |
| HDB | 98.10 | 48.29 | 25.00 | 39.50 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
