Bill: I spent about half hour on a rainy Sunday writing a memo to the Senate Banking Comittee complaining of everything from BSC bailout to Paulson, so I very much agree with your tone. The mere idea of putting a Wall St insider in charge of cleaning up Wall St. The Paulson Plan might as well be called the The Foxes Plan For The Control of Unruly Hens

GFI - Gold Fields says CEO Ian Cockerill resigns; shares drop 4.14% on JSE market.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL3100463520080331

In a 401K account where options and short sales are forbidden, is there a way to bet on declining market indexes without use of the ETF shorts or ultrashorts (which do a very poor job of tracking the index declines in time periods longer than one day)?

Bill, Good luck to you in all your day's activities as you set up new enterprise. Just "Be careful out there". For the fun of it, here is a little “Spot’s Fable” to put next to your “Out Basket” 8<).

Fable of the doodlebug

A grandfather sat on a park bench in the warm sunshine with his granddaughter. He watched her studiously observing a small pit in the sand at their feet into which a busy, little worker ant had just fallen. At first, the ant had not taken notice of where it was but continued in its task of task of bringing food to its nest. Then, it tried very hard to escape, working very hard to get out of that pit, but the sides of the pit just kept slipping down under its feet until the ant was buried over its head.. The owner of the pit, a doodlebug, came and ate that ant until nothing was left..

The little girl sat silently for a while. Then, she whispered into the ear of her grandfather: “Gramps, doodlebugs are like bankers, aren’t they?”

Spot

“This is one ‘mother’ of a market,” 83-year old market veteran Richard Russell aptly described what market participants were again faced with during the past week. Sentiment was fragile as the outlook was still dominated by the familiar cast of deteriorating economic data, housing woes and concerns about the financial sector.

Read all about this in my regular weekly blog post, highlighting some thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action.

Here is the link to the “Words from the Wise”:

http://tinyurl.com/26xjlf

Enjoy the read.

Although the ag market fluctuates day to day, the tightening of supply trend continues.

You've heard of cattle rustling; now there's rice rustling!

Reports of "rice rustling" in Asia, shortages, countries raising export fees or banning exports, etc.

http://tinyurl.com/3x27e5

USDA report due out today on U.S. farmer planting plans.

EOQ Window dressing - down???

Big Picture has an interesting article today:
"An SEC opinion letter advising companies how to deal with their Level 3 assets made a rather curious suggestion. They advised that if the prices of mark-to-model crappy paper are underwater, well then, declare it the result of forced liquidation -- and then you can simply ignore them."

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/

Dave

Magnolia - One option would be to rollover all or part of your 401(k) balance into a rollover IRA with IB or another broker offering similar flexibility in IRA investments; another would be to borrow part of the 401(k) balance and place the proceeds into a regular brokerage account. (There are several potential pitfalls associated with borrowing against your 401(k); be sure you understand and are comfortable with the risks involved.)

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

MBT - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse

Coverage Resumed:

RIO - Buy @ Citigroup

Target Price Lowered:

BA - $105 to $95 @ Lehman Bros.
JCP - $55 to $45 @ BMO

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

A little fortaste of what's coming for Wall Street (humor):

http://youtube.com/watch?v=3XGJq8wrw5I

UBS, U & Us
U (freezes, markdowns, losses) & Us (commissions)

UBS= U Been Screwed

gap down-> bear trap-> squeeze into the close = just one possible scenario to watch out for...

PAULSON, worth 750M, doesnt care about America, he LIED to everyone while his firm shorted the mortgage instruments,

HE NEEDS TO BE FIRED, but he gets more power??

While Americans know more about Barry Bonds' chances of returning to baseball...what is going on

HI,

Paulson: Christian Scientologist, it seems.

I could use some comments.........is Bear Stearns a buy or scam at $10 a share. I feel like buying some just for entertainment purposes.

Got a quick fill on a UBS put spread. This will be profitable if UBS closes below $28 on April 19th.

I'm speculating that UBS closes below $25. But we shall see.

Do that many people really believe the Paulson plan will rally financial stocks? Good grief.

You know,

All this coordination to save the bankers and Brokers could serve to backfire on Paulson and company.

There seems to be more people aware of the Government using taxpayer money to bail out the banks, while average consumers and investors are left twisting in the wind.

I don't see anyone bailing me out of any year I've had a stock loss. I don't see UBS cutting executive pay or rescinding bonuses and reimbursing average people who are going to lose money on the ACBP commercial paper UBS put them into. How about the teachers in FL who lost tons of their pension money? Is Paulson going to reimburse them?

Call me overly optimistic but I think it could all backfire on them when we, disgusted with the sheer arrogance of the bankers, stand up and elect Ron Paul to clean the foxes out of our Henhouse.

Rob.

n2s, any excuse...

ShredHulk, BSC CEO Jimmy Cayne sold ALL of his BSC last week at $10+. THat should tell you something.

Dave

Awesome, in the back of my mind I thought the game is over for BSC. That post confirms it. Thank you!!!

I believe that the legitimate purpose of regulation is to produce or prevent outcomes that are different from what might otherwise occur in an unregulated environment. After reading Paulson I believe that such is not his purpose at all. His purpose is to assure that the outcomes that should be avoided will recur and be still acceptable to the public. His views are unacceptable.

Bullhunter, do you think MO is a buy today? I got some cash handy.

ShredHulk,

I'd be more interested in PM but am not commiting any more money to longs right now.

Regards

Ok, I will play defensive. Sounds good, today could be the deadcat bounce before hitting below 12000.

Brought some TMA for speculation

Not to worry about the PP. It'll never get past Congress.

This is beyond rediculous.

Without forcing derivatives onto public exchanges, so that margin and capital requirements can be monitored and ENFORCED, we cannot solve this problem.

And despite Skeletors protests, the federal government in fact preempted state mortgage regulation during the bubble, allowing and enabling much of the "liar loan" fiasco.

However, there is a fair bit of support for what's going on here, simply because the SEC, which should have been prosecuting these clowns for years on The Street, has utterly refused to do so, and Congress has refused to step in and force anyone to live up to their responsibilities under the law.

Bottom line - Congress needs to stop this nonsese here and now.

Thus, the latest petition asking for Impeachment, which is running at http://financialpetition.org

Perfect? No. But a loud scream for Congress to step up and do its job? Absolutely.

Its a good first step.

Paulson plan says status quo, if anything. Note that there is no mention whatsoever of supporting the currency, either.

Why did people clap when Paulson retreated? Didn't anyone have the nerve to boo? That would have been more appropriate.

I like Genesis' effort, but it is ironic that this is coming from a long-time Bush supporter. The situation didn't materialize overnight. Indeed, it's been 7 years in the making.

Call your congress people directly, folks, and demand action.

Hi,

When one stops for a moment to really take a breather and cosider what has been done to financial markets, the overall picture is truly that of a Matrix like inferno.

And the simple notion that untill regulators really regulate this will not stop is a signal of things to come.

History has really showed us all that regulators ony come in when the public is hit, and that is way too late in the ball game.

...

Alright, this is the crux of the bullshit.

What does "innovation" mean?
What EXACTLY has changed about finance, what has been "discovered", "innovated", that is NEW in finance?

By innovation we must realize they are talking about innovative ways to overcome transparency.
Where is the innovation for the regular citizen?
We are pressed more and more to give up or privacy in all areas of our lives while our supposed leader/employees constantly press for more and more privacy for the greedy financial institutions we ultimately bail out.

We need to give all these clowns the broom.

Bill, America is indeed at a crossroads but I fear we will take the wrong path. That path is the continual erosion of rights and freedoms while huge government and HB&B continue to fleece or quality of life.

Last week I emailed both of my Senators to express my displeasure with the Fed coordinated sale of Bear Stearns. I have gotten no reply (not even a canned thank you for the email). I emailed them months ago expressing my displeasure with the many 'foreclosure prevention' plans.

I will once again send them my displeasure with the FED having more powers.

My Senators don't give a shit what I think. I will not vote for them. It won't matter because plenty of other people will.

Depressing? Hell yes. Only a huge meltdown will bitchslap the American public enough to wake it up so that it cares.

I only hope my daughters become educated and fairly secure in life before I die or America collapses.

FRP being annihilated.

BullHunter, Isn't today the day FRP completes their deal with Verizon?

My views about all this.
Bill I think tou're spot-on. You have been for as long as I've been reading your commentary. I read what you write not just for investment ideas, but to make sense of it all. These guys (Paulsen et al)are incredible--how do they keep a straight face? I have this sick-to-my stomach feeling, these people do not have a clue, or even worse, the solution they're cooking-up is so unubashedly disgusting for America that they dare not sping it out all at once. I think this President has gotten very mediocre advice, and I think I'm being generous.
Regards,

Gus.

Macro, re your comment that the regulators only come in when the public is hit: The regulators came in several years ago and repealed Glass Stiegel, I think Greenspan was influential in that. Regulators came in at some point and loosened the current mortgage rules. You could never get a 100% loan before. Unfortunately sometimes when people are NOT watching is when the regulators are the busiest.

telenetworxx ,

It's done. FRP falling on GS downgrade to sell.

It's kick the can. Dribble a little bad news, kick.....a little more bad news, kick.....a little made-up and spun homesales using a faulty timeline, kick....

All the time they are trying like mad to keep the markets about where they are while they let the air (capital) out of Joe 6 pack's net worth and the future of his kids to pay for it.

By the time this is all said and done the people will own a bunch of unmaintained houses for dollars on the penny and the bankers and brokers (and politicians) will still be fat and sassy.

IRS Tax Rebate or Income Redistribution SCAM

Those single taxpayers who make over $75k and expect to get a tax rebate will find that the rebate is reduced by 5% for any income higher than 75K. A single friend of mine had an income of 87k and their rebate was reduced to ZERO.

Once again those who pay the freight for this country get the short end of the stick.

If I were to map a stategy to coporate-fascism these are the tools most likely to guarantee success. The previous poster listed the installation of Graham-Leach effectively repealing Glass-Steagal, to setting the wheels in motion for this fundamental progression to catastrophy followed by the current power grab, by our currently to "too Big to Fail" institutional "owners" they have proven they have been licensed to effectively redistribute the efforts of productive society unto themselves regardless of the ineptness of their wares.

Now:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23853415
Bush proposes financial regulation overhaul

“The proposal would designate the Fed as the primary regulator of market stability, greatly expanding the central bank's ability to examine not just commercial banks but all segments of the financial services industry...............
The plan would shut down the Office of Thrift Supervision, which supervises thrift institutions, and transfer its functions to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates banks. The plan would eliminate the distinction between banks and thrift institutions.

The role the Federal Reserve has been playing in efforts to stabilize the financial system after a credit crisis hit last August would be formalized.

The Fed would become the government's "market stability regulator," given sweeping powers to gather information on a wide range of institutions so that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues could better detect where threats to the system might be hiding.”

Isn't this the same OCC that under Admin direction blocked all efforts by States Attorneys General to put a lid on "Predatory Lending", ending finally in the use of the Patriot Act and its "suspicious activity reports" or sanctioned corporate-fascist spying on civilians / commonly confused with terrorists to silence Spitzer who deserves his plight, it’s the timing that’s questionable?

http://www.bankersonline.com/security/sar/patriotcomsystem.html
“FinCEN Introduces the PATRIOT Act Communication System
Pursuant to Section 362 of the USA PATRIOT Act, FinCEN was tasked with developing a highly secure network to allow financial institutions to electronically file certain BSA forms. FinCEN met this goal by making the PATRIOT Act Communication System (PACS) available to the financial community on October 1, 2002. Initially, only the forms filed by depository institutions, the Currency Transaction Report (Form 4789 or CTR) and the Suspicious Activity Report (Form TD F 90-22.47 or SAR) will be accepted through the electronic filing process.”

Let’s put the hackers in charge of the network, now that all the data has disappeared!!!! That way only they will know where it went, imagine every one of your transactions tracked while literally billions disappear in IRAQ

Hi,

So we had the meeting with DB, and here is my impression of it:

- The ETFs are deposited with StateStreet, which are also the administrator for the ETFs.

- The cash is divided in:

A) A portfolio of AAA diversified Bonds. He refused to specify composition of the postfolio and kept saying that he guarantees that the portfolio is AAA. This is where we started to get scared.

B) SWAPS in which the counterpart is DB.

The guy was remarkably arrogant and kept saying that they are "guaranteeing" the cheapest ETFs in the market, and that default on these is unconceivable.

My personal impression is that I am now more concerned than ever, as it is apparent to me that these banks are running these ETF operations basically as a fund recollection mechanism.

As Kaimu goes on saying: it will work, untill it doesn't.

Cheers,

Thanks, maromatics.

ALOHA !!

Ever since Reagan's last term as President I have voted anti-Rep and anti-Dem. Until we get both of these two parties out of COngress and out of the Oval Office there will never be any CHANGE other than just names on the doors!

I do not have a TV so I could not watch Paulson's SPIN about the new PLAN, but from what I have read all this will give the FED is a stamp of approval to manipulate the US Markets in plain daylight without the daylight! More FRAUD please ...

I did notice that the administration believes that lack of regulation was not the cause of the current financial woes. I can still recall Ron Paul asking Greenspan if he thought regulation of the derivatives market was needed. Greeenspan's reply was NO!

Get rid of the FED and the IRS ... Those are the main planks on the RON PAUL platform! Vote for RON PAUL! We have to get rid of the FED. There is no reason we should have "private bankers" controlling our money and our markets. Can't anyone see that yet?

WE HAVE TO GET RID OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK ...

Duties of regulating money were always under the control of the US Treasury prior to 1913. Private bankers created the FED and forced it down the throats of the spineless and immoral politicians of that era. We have been paying for their mistakes ever since. Just as there is separation of CHURCH and STATE there must be a separation of BANK and STATE. It's just that simple ...

You nor your kids will ever see CHANGE until the two party aristocracy are out of power and out of Washington DC. If we do not do it peacefully through our educated votes then it will be done violently through a monetary crisis. Take your pick. Either way the system will be cleansed ... I have a feeling it will end up being the violent monetary crisis way if I know anything about US Voters!

I plan to vote for RON PAUL whether he is alive or dead ... It is my PROTEST VOTE and I believe in my heart it is the only vote that is moral and responsible!

This all seems earily similiar to what happened in 1933.....

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laborde011305.html

Maybe a result of BB's Depression studies.........

ALOHA !!

Yes ... thank you maromatics! Awesome, finally an insider who gets the rare chance to see the inside ...

"Guarantees" ... Where have I heard that before?

I guess none of my questions needed to be asked since his "arrogance" was all the answer you ever needed!

I do not care what ETF you own they are all set up for the bank's benefit not you. Why else would they exist? The loopholes and abuse clauses are just huge gapping holes ... They are all 100% RISK with a capital "R". It all boils down to "Do you know where your money is?" Do you?

IT WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN'T ... Then its "GAME OVER"!

All it will take is for one of the ETF's to fail and then doubt is cast on the entire ETF concept ...

God help you when the ETFs stop working! All I can say is, "Don't bet the farm!"

Kaimu,

I'm not entirely familiar with the US monetary system, but isn't the FED supposed to represent separation of Bank and State? Isn't it only more recently (last decade or two) that the Fed and State are in bed together, catering to political whims?

It's hard to imagine any arrangement where power doesn't eventually corrupt and cause whoever is in charge of the money supply to bend to politicians/bankers will.

Which is of course the reason a sound currency backed by something non-printable is the only guaranteed way to avoid the current type of mess. And even then the guarantee is weak when the gold supply isn't audited, is leased out for shorting or whatever.

Just can't win...

maromatics: Thank you so much for your work here. I have concluded like you that everything works until it doesn't. I should write a list of all the products over the years that failed to live up to the hype. I am afraid that there are many more on my watchlist that are being crammed down investors throats. The tragedy is most of the salespeople really don't want to know how these things work and most consumers do not want to really know either. Everyone just keeps the charade going until one day it doesn't work and fingers are then pointed.

What we are witnessing is really just another episode in human nature. I think the infallible human is mostly to blame, not government or wall street or Joe salesman or jane subprime... and therein lies the rub....the scenario and faces will change but the outcome will always and forever be the same.

<rant over<

Hi all,

I have two questions about the mechanics of where to trade. First, I have a Scott Trade account. However, they will not allow me to write puts.

So looking around I found OptionsHouse. Any thoughts on using them to trade options? I am just starting with options and will be making infrequent trades as I learn (less than 5 a month). Other recommendations for places to use?

Also, I am looking to buy physical gold. Recommendations for where to do this. I am just starting and do not have enough to 'qualify' for private banking with the Swis. My range is more 10K-50K.

Thanks in advance for any information to help me get started.

Chris....

>>the scenario and faces will change but the outcome will always and forever be the same.

>>the scenario and faces will change but the outcome will always and forever be the same.

Liberty is a journey not a destination the current crisis being be attributed to mistakes, errors or greed IMHO is vastly short sighted, an ideological transformation is occurring as if scripted, one in which a "meritocracy" is being constructed to define one's influence with respect to how one is governed. Superficially this might be acceptable but in an economy operating on fiat currency, merit is an illusion created from thin air, this dissolves to the cronyism perpetrated by previous “empires”. We were founded to be a Republic not an Empire. Just my 2 cents.

ETF discussion

I understand ultra ETFs are risky with a capital "R" since they rely on swaps. Kaimu, marcomatics, et al. do also think GDX is RISKY? The prospectus says:

"Principal Investment Policy. The Fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and ADRs of companies involved in the gold mining industry. This 80% investment policy is non-fundamental and requires 60 days’ prior written notice to shareholders before it can be changed.
"Indexing Investment Approach. ... The Fund normally invests at least 95% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Gold Miners Index. A lesser percentage may be so invested to the extent that the Adviser needs additional flexibility to comply with the requirements of the Internal Revenue Code and other regulatory requirements.
"Borrowing Money. The Fund may borrow money from a bank up to a limit of one-third of the market value of its assets, but only for temporary or emergency purposes. To the extent that the Fund borrows money, it may be leveraged; at such times, the Fund may appreciate or depreciate in value more rapidly than its benchmark Gold Miners Index."

This borrowing 1/3 of assets clause concerns me. I'd greatly appreciate comments on this.

ALOHA !!

proudPapa ... Does the following resemble anything close to separation of BANK and STATE? The Federal Reserve Bank is a bunch of private bankers who are appointed by the US government.

Somebody please explain how the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank has been a success for anyone other than banks? A chimp could have done just as good a job throwing darts at a board with listings of various random FED actions! There would be a dart board with only two actions. 63/64ths of the circle would say PRINT MONEY and the other 1/64th would say STOP PRINTING MONEY!

I could have run the country's monetary system and economy into the ground just as well as Greenspan and Bernanke have! I have no degree in Economics ... HA!!

READ ON:

FROM:"The Federal Reserve in Plain English - An easy-to-read guide to the structure and functions of the Federal Reserve System"

See page 5 of the document for the purposes and functions. See page 14 titled, "conducting monetary policy" for information about inflation as a measure of the Fed's success. See page 11 for how open market operations work.
Federal Reserve Bank: Mission Statement

THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK'S MISSION

The purpose and functions of the Federal Reserve System include:[12][13]

-To address banking panics

-To serve as the central bank for the United States

-To strike a balance between private interests of banks and the centralized responsibility of government supervising and regulating banking institutions

-Protect the credit rights of consumers

- To manage the nation's money supply through monetary policy:

maximum employment
stable prices
moderate long-term interest rates

-Maintain the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk in financial markets

-Providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions, including playing a major role in operating the nation’s payments system
facilitate the exchange of payments among regions to be responsive to local liquidity needs

-Strengthen U.S. standing in the world economy

In the upcoming elections for US President I intend to write in the name of Ron Paul if it does not already appear as a choice on the ballot. For me, any other action would be "wasting my vote".

Hi Bill,

My view about the new Paulson plan: Who cares? I don't! I live in Europe so the only thing I care of US Economy is if going up or going down. As you say, as Traders we trade prices. No matter who influences the market it's the WhiteHouse, the FED, the speculators, the banks, the media and the rummors. I just want to know (or try to) if prices go up or down.

People love to complain but they always forget that they elected the president in charge. So next time be carefull when you choose your vote.

Watching from outside, yes I agree the the goverment, regulators, central banks et all should do all the efforts to stabilize the financial markets. You say that taxpayers should not pay for that. Do you believe if the markets are not stabilized the taxpayers will not pay much, much more than they are paying today?

Thanks,

closed ESLR at 9.30

One of the things that surprised me when recently reading about American history is that this country was from the very beginning of colonial times an unequal society. The rich owned the vast majority of the arable land. The governor of New York gave one million acres to a friend of his for a token fee. This did not change with the American Revolution. The revolution was the upper class Americans refusing to pay outrageous taxes mandated by Britain. As has been the case for centuries in this country, the poor fought the battles and most times did not receive their small salaries even while officers got their much larger salaries. The rich were able to avoid serving by paying a fee for a replacement (as in the Civil War, the Mexican War, and the Spanish-American War). In fact there were several mutinies among the Americans that George Washington had to carefully put down, usually without direct force.

The rich and powerful have run this country from the beginning to the detriment of other citizens. I don't see a quick solution.

Macromatics,
Thanks a lot for sharing your insights from the DB meeting on ETF's. You can bet they won't be reporting that on CNBC.

I also will vote for Ron Paul, even if I have to write his name in. And I agree that any other vote would be a wasted vote. Wouldn't it be amazing if he won as a write in candidate.

Paulson probably gave the FED new powers though to choose the President so he'll never get elected.

But I'll be voting my conscience.

Rob.

ALOHA !!

SHARE LENDING
All Funds and ETFs lend shares. They do this for a fee. They lend your shares to Hedge Funds and individuals for the purpose of "shorting". Yet little of the fees recovered even make it back to the shareholders of the ETFs or Funds. Most of the fees end up in the hands of the management company for the ETF and/or Fund or management if management is in-house.

Look what is happening in this regard down in Australia. What happens when all these "shorts" try to cover and cannot return these "borrowed" shares? More risk please!

I guess in Australia the pension funds are starting to see the writing on the wall and are taking "regulating" into their owns hands! I guess "confidence" and "credability" means something in the Land Down Under!

Imagine wanting "integrity" to come back to the markets! The nerve ...

READ ON:
Super Fund Ceases Share Lending

Adele Ferguson | March 24, 2008

ONE of Australia's big pension funds, Equipsuper, has publicly withdrawn from share lending, in what is expected to be the start of a mass exit for stock lenders until market integrity is restored.

Other superannuation funds are believed to be carefully consulting with fund managers to see whether they should continue to lend their stock in the current climate.

Robin Burns, chief executive of Equipsuper, which has almost $5billion in funds under management, said the fund had decided to halt its share lending program, based on concerns of market manipulation by short selling.

Ugly day for my junior PMs. Sold PMI Gold (PMV) and bought some more Geologix (GIX).

The genius of the first American Revolution was that it put in place a system by which we can someday achieve a non violent 2nd revolution. The idea that we could totally change everything about government and its policies via the ballot box by simply ousting all the incumbents is tremendous. Unfortunately it requires voters to change, something many say they want but seldom vote for. When a voter wants change, he votes for the Repub. instead of the Dem., or he votes for the Dem. instead of the Repub. But he always votes for one of the tier 1 candidates. Real change can only be found in the outside candidates, and the other "genius" thing about our system of govt. is we are always "persuaded" that these outside candidates are dangerous, or unstable. Just look at Ron Paul at the early democratic debate last fall, talking about the Fed and its policies. None of the other 6 or 8 candidates spoke of that. Voters always weed out outsides and steer toward the center. By Nov., whether its McCain or Obama or Hillary, everyone gets to vote but the real change has already left the race and won't come until we can redefine what change means to the average guy outside this blog

Ironically, it seems I am alone in believing real change left this race when Kucinich dropped out.

Did anyone see Thornberg Mortgage lately?

They had a bond sale to meet margin calls at 12% interest that failed.

Now they're floating an 18% interest bond offer.

They are as dead as dead can be. How can anyone hope to make money paying an 18% interest rate.

It also seems like a no-brainer short as well but I'll bet it's a trap like Bear was as someone will scoop it up(with a FED guarantee on the bad paper of course)to cherry pick anything good.

I heard a rumor that if this Paulson Plan flies, they'll propose a plan to immediately impose a 15% tax on all investment accounts to save the financial system.(Just joking!! Ha! But it doesn't seem like too much of a stretch with what's going on.

You guys that have been watching markets for a long time must be really freaking out. I've only been paying attention since late '99 so I'm pretty shocked but also vividly remember Greenspan's stage show. How about when Volker was in there? It seems like he did the right thing back then. What do you all think?

Rob.

Bad day for Gold and related stocks.

Bailed om SKF at a small loss due to the bounce from Paulson flapping his gums. The market never ceases to amaze me... Some proposal is announced that won't have any effect for years, and traders respond. I play this game because I have to, but these tradrers are real idiots IMHO.

Fiscal year end; off to the bank.

Looks like S&P gonna be down now 6 months running, unless they really jam it into the close

Dave

One more chunk DGP. Cha-Ching!

oops...S&P down 5 months running

Dave

Thanks Kaimu. To be clear, I am not arguing for a FED. But if a FED must exist, how should people be selected to run it? I suppose govt appointment is still better than bank appointment. I also thought that in other times in US history, most notably the time of Volker, the FED showed resilience in the face of political pressure.

In your post, the most telling FED responsibility is this:

"To strike a balance between private interests of banks and the centralized responsibility of government supervising and regulating banking institutions "

Funny how the average citizen falls between the cracks on this one, and basically gets screwed. The next one seems kind of laughable as well:

"Protect the credit rights of consumers"

Yeah, great job on that one. Seems what they really meant was make sure consumers always have enough credit to dig themselves a nice, cozy hole...

And finally:

"Stable prices"

Great job if by that they mean "Stable growth of prices"

Rob- Volcker did the right thing for his time...don't know enough about what's happening behind the scenes to say whether Bernanke is doing the right thing-> sometimes it takes cojones to appear weak in the interest of doing the right thing...

vinod- did you close out your entire position in ESLR, or just the portion you bought at friday's close? still holding...

S&P 1320 a battle line again.

FXP trade doing nicely, however the 2x short NDX has yet to get going for me today - the last hour will tell the tale.

Dave

From 'The Times' in UK. today.

Up to 11,000 jobs could be cut from the UK's financial services industry over the next three months, according to forecasts by the CBI.

Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economist, commented: "This is a very serious crisis."

Some have suggested it's the worst financial crisis since the Second World War," Mr McCafferty said. "I think one of the key characteristics is that it will go on for quite some time to come."
The Bank of England has been providing an extra £5 billion each week at its cash auctions for Britain’s banks.
Companies said that their plans for spending on IT were flat and expenditure on land, buildings, vehicles, plant and machinery were the lowest since June 1992.
......................
I sold all my PM miners except one junior in last Gold rally .I am staying in cash apart from my Bullion coins until we get some clarity.

Cheers all,
John

I notice that today the NDX is weaker than the Nasdaq Comp - first time in a week or so.

Dave

Still holding FXP, DUG from over the weekend(up on both).

I was wanting to short GM & COF but they didn't get high enough for me today...

n2s - wasn't singling out Ron Paul, just the notion that change gets weeded out, leaving us with same

good Boss

If this is the best EOQ window dressing that can be applied, then I see little reason to be long this market.

Dave

2nd,
Thanks. I thought Volker did the right thing.

I have to tell that I'm skeptical if Bernacke is doing the right thing though. I guess we'll have to see what he does when the FED runs out of treasuries to lend. And if he ever makes the banks take back their garbage paper. And if he develops a "trust" to absorb all of the bad paper.

I personally think nothing would be better than letting the banks and brokerages all fail so we can start over. The worldwide pain caused would be hard to comprehend but in the end we'd have trustworthy financial institutions and a marketplace with integrity.

The way things are going these days under my mattress is starting to look like the safest option in saving for the future.

Rob.

JVS3:

"Depressing? Hell yes. Only a huge meltdown will bitchslap the American public enough to wake it up so that it cares.

I only hope my daughters become educated and fairly secure in life before I die or America collapses.

Posted by: JVS3 at March 31, 2008 11:05 AM"

I hope your daughters aren't a constituency of the American public who are bitchslapped.

Your language is very jarring and offensive to me.

Hi,

Re PoG: there is currently nothing bullish in several charts across different timeframes.

Oscilators (RSI, CCI, Slow Sto) in the 5 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 2 hour, 8 hour, daily, weekly and after today now even monthly charts are bearish and not yet showing signs of any divergence.

This market is in correction mode, and time is needed before traders think of long entries.

However, so far, the Bull appears to not be in peril, and therefore short positions are risky.

As Bill rightfully suggests, the time is for being patient and letting the price come to us.

Cheers,

Paul Volcker's last name is spelled VOLCKER.

Here is an article by him from April 2005.

washingtonpost.com
An Economy On Thin Ice
By Paul A. Volcker

Sunday, April 10, 2005; Page B07
The U.S. expansion appears on track. Europe and Japan may lack exuberance, but their economies are at least on the plus side. China and India -- with close to 40 percent of the world's population -- have sustained growth at rates that not so long ago would have seemed, if not impossible, highly improbable.
Yet, under the placid surface, there are disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks -- call them what you will. Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it.
We sit here absorbed in a debate about how to maintain Social Security -- and, more important, Medicare -- when the baby boomers retire. But right now, those same boomers are spending like there's no tomorrow. If we can believe the numbers, personal savings in the United States have practically disappeared.
To be sure, businesses have begun to rebuild their financial reserves. But in the space of a few years, the federal deficit has come to offset that source of national savings.
We are buying a lot of housing at rising prices, but home ownership has become a vehicle for borrowing as much as a source of financial security. As a nation we are consuming and investing about 6 percent more than we are producing.
What holds it all together is a massive and growing flow of capital from abroad, running to more than $2 billion every working day, and growing. There is no sense of strain. As a nation we don't consciously borrow or beg. We aren't even offering attractive interest rates, nor do we have to offer our creditors protection against the risk of a declining dollar.
Most of the time, it has been private capital that has freely flowed into our markets from abroad -- where better to invest in an uncertain world, the refrain has gone, than the United States?
More recently, we've become more dependent on foreign central banks, particularly in China and Japan and elsewhere in East Asia.
It's all quite comfortable for us. We fill our shops and our garages with goods from abroad, and the competition has been a powerful restraint on our internal prices. It's surely helped keep interest rates exceptionally low despite our vanishing savings and rapid growth.
And it's comfortable for our trading partners and for those supplying the capital. Some, such as China, depend heavily on our expanding domestic markets. And for the most part, the central banks of the emerging world have been willing to hold more and more dollars, which are, after all, the closest thing the world has to a truly international currency.
The difficulty is that this seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely. I don't know of any country that has managed to consume and invest 6 percent more than it produces for long. The United States is absorbing about 80 percent of the net flow of international capital. And at some point, both central banks and private institutions will have their fill of dollars.
I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.
It's not that it is so difficult intellectually to set out a scenario for a "soft landing" and sustained growth. There is a wide area of agreement among establishment economists about a textbook pretty picture: China and other continental Asian economies should permit and encourage a substantial exchange rate appreciation against the dollar. Japan and Europe should work promptly and aggressively toward domestic stimulus and deal more effectively and speedily with structural obstacles to growth. And the United States, by some combination of measures, should forcibly increase its rate of internal saving, thereby reducing its import demand.
But can we, with any degree of confidence today, look forward to any one of these policies being put in place any time soon, much less a combination of all?
The answer is no. So I think we are skating on increasingly thin ice. On the present trajectory, the deficits and imbalances will increase. At some point, the sense of confidence in capital markets that today so benignly supports the flow of funds to the United States and the growing world economy could fade. Then some event, or combination of events, could come along to disturb markets, with damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates. We had a taste of that in the stagflation of the 1970s -- a volatile and depressed dollar, inflationary pressures, a sudden increase in interest rates and a couple of big recessions.
The clear lesson I draw is that there is a high premium on doing what we can to minimize the risks and to ensure that there is time for orderly adjustment. I'm not suggesting anything unorthodox or arcane. What is required is a willingness to act now -- and next year, and the following year, and to act even when, on the surface, everything seems so placid and favorable.
What I am talking about really boils down to the oldest lesson of economic policy: a strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline. This is not a time for ideological intransigence and partisan posturing on the budget at the expense of the deficit rising still higher. Surely we would all be better off if other countries did their part. But their failures must not deflect us from what we can do, in our own self-interest.
A wise observer of the economic scene once commented that "what can be left to later, usually is -- and then, alas, it's too late." I don't want to let that stand as the epitaph of what has been an unparalleled period of success for the American economy and of enormous potential for the world at large.
The writer was chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. This article is adapted from a speech in February at an economic summit sponsored by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

going short the 10-year bond (via DXKSX)...

Telestar3d,
Thanks for that great post and sorry for the mis-spelling. It's too bad Volcker wasn't running. It sounds like he's got some good answers. But I would imagine he's probably retired.

He really draws a clear picture of how the problem started by everyone upping their lifestyles to "keep up with the Joneses".

Rob.

I apologize for my rude language.

Thank you Joey for that reminder to not let my emotions overcome my manners.

2nd
closed out friday's position
other i got in at 7.76 i plan to keep it for long

Finger lakes, here is a link from Prieur’s Investment Postcards site with an interview of Paul.

Charlie Rose: A discussion with Paul Volcker on the US economy

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/?s=volcker

just scroll down.

maromatics:

When the price of gold dropped sharply you were explaining the price action as due to manipulation. That type of price decline is bound to make the charts and indicators look horrible about a week later. It seems to me that if it was truly manipulation, then once that is removed the price will continue on it's previous trend which was up, regardless of what the charts and indicators say. Therefore, you may miss the next up move due to misleading charts that were skewed by manipulation. On the other hand, if the charts prove to be right in indicating further downside than it would seem hard to justify any manipulation. Either way, there seems to be inconsistency between the manipulation theory and the charts. Any thoughts?

vinod- thanks, glad to hear that...

Lets face it, working people will have to buy a copy of "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" and learn just how to pronounce "HI-HO-PAWLLSIN" right along with "HI-HO-BEWSSH".
Working peoples retirement savings will be confenscated then redistributed to all the gestapos that support Chancellor Pawllsin.
Write your gestapo senators, congressman, and representatives and inform them you will vote for their impeachment to try and save any shred of America that is left.

An update on Northern Rock today....

Northern Rock is giving disgraced former chief executive Adam Applegarth a £760,000 pay-off, a £346,000 pension top-up and continuing to honour his cut-price staff mortgage.
The pay-off is much larger than the sum foreshadowed in December, when sources close to the bank insisted Mr Applegarth would get less than six months' pay.

The extent of the flight by depositors during and after the run last September was revealed for the first time: net outflow of funds was £12.2 billion.

chris,

I'm a big fan of thinkorswim as a brokerage. They have pretty low fees for small-size options trades, and I think they really do a good job of investor education and just doing well by their clients (for example, no extra charge to call the trade desk and they don't charge commissions to buy back worthless short options to reduce your risk). Interactive Brokers is more powerful, but not nearly as user-friendly (but they are popular here). Also, I believe both are very liberal in what they let you do in IRA accounts (like you can sell puts in an IRA if you either put up all the cash or buy a cheaper or longer-dated put to hedge it), which was a big reason I went to ToS.

http://thinkorswim.com/
http://interactivebrokers.com/

As for the Federal Reserve mess, watching these videos may help. They are on Google video and they are free and downloadable.

Warning! Not for the faint at heart or for those with integrity.

http://tinyurl.com/3553wf (Money, Banking, and the Federal Reserve)

http://tinyurl.com/3yyyyo (The Money Masters - How International Bankers Gained Control of America)

Ron

I have never been a raging optimist, but my curmudgeon spirits would pass for rose-colored innocence on this board. I am not sure that I recognize this community as a forum of vigorous, yet respectful, debate.

In less than a week, I have read of financial Armageddon (via a collapse of the fiat money system, or most banks), economic purgatory for the U.S. sinners (with attendant depression and eternal nuclear winter), and now easy accusations of governmental fascism/nazism (before drawing such gratuitous parallels, we may need for the previous catastrophes to run their course and generate a popular backlash sufficient for extremists to prosper. Also, please beware of cheapening the atrocities suffered by the victims of Nazis with lazy comparisons).

With a bit of care and restraints, we won't sound any better than uber-bullish boards that waste space calling for "death to shorts" and eternal exponential price runs in their holdings.

JML

I don't see the inconsistency in maromatics call of manipulation. All is needed is for the power that be to start the decline with indiscriminate selling. The black box hedge funds then all stampede out the door at once for no other reason than that the price is going down. The dollar has been falling during this interval so the fundamentals are still there for gold. As the quote I posted on Friday related, the hedge funds have taken over the commodity markets and the price changes make absolutely no sense fundamentally. Selling has beget selling and that will provide with a great opportunity to buy PM's at favorable prices.

Jesse,

Thank you for your comment, which I find very pertient.

As posted here before, it is my personal opinion that the smackdown in PoG that took place recently can only be explained by some sort of market intervention.

My opinion is rooted on the fact that the smackdown happened immediately after what should have been very bulish news for Gold, and the action appeared to be timed to perfection.

It is also rooted in the fact that I am currently convinced that this is no longer only a bear market, but a currency problem, and that value of the USD is the core issue at hand.

Now, at the time of the smackdown I had neglected Bills constant warning, and to my disadvantage I was looking fundamental analysis and also at some of the oscilators, but was not considering the CCI oscilator, which had been showing divergent signals right before the smackdown took place.

Later on I found that if I had been noticing the CCI, I could have seen it coming, and would have bailed out in time before the smackdown, inspite of the fact that that time was and still is fundamentally a very bullish moment for PoG.

The following movement was very agressive on the downside, offering no respite on the way down for traders looking to exit. So it turned out that traders on margin were creamed, and unleveraged longs, basically, got stuck and have to wait.

Then a secondary reaction to the downswing took place, but it was unable to hold. By the time the secondaty reaction started, oscilators were showing buy singnals (divergence) in all time frames smaller than the daily charts, with the daily included. If you look at the CCI of last week, it was signalling the movement that actually took place.

However, the speed of the recovery was also relevant, which made me believe that part of those gains could be related to short covering and that some sort of consolidation would happen at some price level.

Since then, the market is now re-testing the lows of the first downswing, and this time the oscilators are all slightly oversold, but none is yet showing signals of divergence (ie, pointing back up).

Further from a TA standpoint, the present argument for the formation os a possble bear flag is gaining some strength at this point, which would, project PoG to around 850, more os less.

Also from a fibonacci retracement standpoint, 850 or even lower is not such a strange movement (do the fibs yourself, I am using the entire move from Aug 16th).

Finally, the current status of the charts is relevant for the blackboxes, who can still figure out that, the path of least resistance may still be lower. Time is needed to convince the backboxes of the opposite.

So in this light, I see your comment more related to how to find a bottom in this movement. Well, what I have learned is that literally the times that I have found a bottom have by far been exceeded by the times I have missed it.

Time has taught me that a bottom is a process and not an event, and that it is not my business to try to pick it. Better leave it to the institutionals to do the dirty work.

Of course this will mean that I will nver make the "perfect trade" from bottom to top, but it also means that my risk is reduced by not trying to use my ego in predicting the market.

So, in this light, what I mean is that experience tells me that at some stage PoG will show signs of bottoming. Those signs will be a flattening of the price curve, less volatility, which is AKA "consolidation". If we start seeing that, and the oscilators start showing positive divergene across different timeframes, even as the prices seem to still be moving sideways, then it will be better time to consider buying.

This time I will not forget to look at the CCI.

So, it seems to me that Bill is absolutely right in saying that traders are advised to let the price come to them.

Anyway, please do not use this as trading advice, and DYODD.

Cheers!

Well said JML. I too very much enjoy this forum, but worry that it risks becoming an echo chamber of Panzer/Roubini armageddon/depression predictions. We should all remember that true armageddons are very rare events, seen once or less in most lifetimes. Maybe this crisis in just that and I certainly don't discount that possibility (in fact, I lean in that direction)but we cheat ourselves of the true wisdom of crowds if don't constantly questions our assumptions, ask ourselves what events would convince each of us that our worldview was wrong. Sometimes, up days are just that and not simply due to manipulation.

RE: Yamana

Wondering if anyone thinking Yamana a buy here at
$14.62? One year target prices of several analysts are in the low to mid twenties.

PS: Read today that Bear Sterns was levered 167 times... over 13 trillion in commitments on 80 billion equity...no wonder they had the emergency weekend meeting and bailout.

maromatics,

Thanks for your detailed and well thought out explanation. It is very difficult for me to take a bearish outlook on gold when the Feds activities smell so strongly of desperation and the financial sector looks so damaged. To take a bearish stance almost feels like admitting that the Fed has saved the day and all is well. Maybe the challenge is to properly separate out the different time frames for events to unfold. Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.

what is everyone's thought on Garmin (GRMN)? Specifically, do they face too much competition going forward from Nokia and Apple to do enough to reclaim that lofty stock price? I'm thinking yes...thoughts?

ALOHA !!

Come on you guys what would any one in the know expect to happen today? GOLD gets killed and the DOW and USDX goes up. The PPT can't have an announcement about a "New Finnacial Era" as GOLD skyrockets and the DOW plunges can they? That would hurt Hank and Ben and George's feelings ... After all they are burning the midnight oil to keep us safe and the debt bubble(oops)I mean, American Dream going!

Relax-x-x ... This is the BEST market OUR MONEY can buy!

Today I bought:
GIX - 20k shares

I sold nothing.

The action in ETFs favours commodities and fixed income ETFs, though there have been overall net redemptions:

Yahoo ETF page

http://tinyurl.com/38qdwd

(I suppose its anachronistic to call an ETF "fixed income.")

Maromatics,
Thanks a lot for your information and for replying to my previous questions too!
At the end of the day, when Bill said we should take away all our money from the table and let the banks (and HB&B) play their fraud game by themselves, he was and is 100% right.
I'll sell my DB ETF soon, and wait for real gold to come to me (junior shares, and hard gold).

Roubini posted a long article about the problems in the US (and international!) financial system with reference to regulations and the proposal by Paulson. It's quite detailed and very long, but very interesting.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/252272
I just quote the conclusion:
"Finally, how do the U.S. Secretary Paulson proposals for the reform of the financial system compare with the principles and ideas for optimal financial regulation and supervision discussed above? An appropriate answer requires a detailed discussion that will be provided in the near future in this forum. But in brief summary, such proposals - while representing a step forward – have many shortcomings and they overemphasize the role of self-regulation, market discipline and reliance on principles rather than rules that have miserably failed to deliver an appropriate regulation and supervision of the financial system. Given that we are still in the midst of the worst U.S. financial crisis since the Great Depression, a crisis that has shaken the foundations of modern financial capitalism, the current US Treasury proposals have significant shortcomings that don’t address the core and structural financial risks and vulnerabilities that the current crisis has revealed."

RE 2nd_ave: going short the 10-year bond (via DXKSX)...

2nd_ave: it seems like you are betting on a stronger dollar, which would also imply falling commodity prices. Are you betting on it for the very short term (to time the downswing in the current commodity correction) or is this an intermediate-term bet?

DavidV

MRK and SGP->time to buy or time to short? straddles might be the only safe play...leaning towards jan 09 calls/puts, 37.50 strike for MRK, 15 strike for SGP...anyone pick any up today?

DavidV- i'm going to give the short bond play a little room-> sold my RRPIX last thursday for a modest gain, then immediately regretted it...there are strong downtrends in bond yields and the USD, but suspect a strong bounce will occur soon...i'm a little more confident now than i was two weeks ago, so employing more leverage with DXKSX...

commodities going down? i've been playing DUG/SMN for a few weeks with moderate success...have you noticed the extreme intra-day swings, especially in SMN (often pre-market)...just trying to time my entries/exits when they occur...

2nd

I was looking at this and I show your post
I am looking for Jan 2009 call on MRK, SGP and also
For LEH if it goes down tomorrow

I think central bank in Europe, UK, will lower rate and will pop up dollar which will result in lower price in gold and commodity

FED is behind them and money is awailable from fed at 2.5 rate
I do not think LEH is going like BEAR

vinod- can't help thinking the path of maximum frustration right now is market+USD up/bonds+commodities sell off...who knows...just my take...

2nd_ave: why do you think a strong temporary bounce in the dollar will soon occur? The dollar was oversold by the time the last FOMC decision was made, so if a strong dollar bounce did not occur then (when FOMC made a smaller than expected rate cut), why do you think it will occur in the near future?

Thoes call for MRK,SGP and LEH are too expensive I am going to pass it

vinod- another possibility i'm considering is buying MRK and immediately selling puts against it...many ways to take advantage of the emotional turmoil behind the selling right now...

DavidV- i will have to refer you to Vad's site for more reading on what he calls the (seeming il)logic of market movement:

http://tinyurl.com/36vfox

all i can tell you is my trades are based on my readings of sentiment-> i always seek to trade counter to the crowd...many times i can come up with no reason why they should work, but that certainly will not stop me from placing the bet...

Question on ABCP

If the ABCP is trading below par or at a significant discount, why can't the shareholders demand the assets be sold, particularly if the value of the assets exceeds the bid on the paper? Isn't that the reason why people bought 'Asset-Backed' paper?

Why no class actions? Why no companies getting broken up? Wouldn't that create some liquidity??

This was one of those miserable days, where I had ideas, and none looked good at the open.

I bailed on SKF just to reduce the huge sorrt position I still have.

1/3 short all, seemed too high.

SRS: I'm gonna play that till either I'm right, or I'm dead.

IMHO: Transports are gonna get a smack down, ala Mededith Whitney's hubby; and they will be gin pahse one (learning for the morons) they are screwed for decades, based on clueless Govt and wishful thinking, that energy somehow will be OK. Wrong! Clueless govt, clueless tree huggers, how many more do I need to condemn? We can't fix anything till the clueless get on board. And that a long, long, way off!

I took all HS science (mastered), all College Engineering (Tau Beta Pi), and finally all time devoted to MBA. I wanted to know. You can only pee away a portion of your lifetime, to professors who can predict but can't execute. (Not to defer to my Dad; at least he tried.)
I now know all I will ever know, for the amount of money I amd dealing with.

Don't listen to anyone who hasn't even suffered same, and is still clueless.

These current young clueless hedge fund investors/managers; Ought to fail and need to be accountable. They were/are clueless arzls.

I have a pointed message to Bill:

If your scheme to hold bullion (and related) off shore into a Swiss bank account (as I wish); Is limited to so called qualified investors with $2M or more; then we will go to war.

I'm sick of bumping off this, and I'm not going to accept this. I will work 24/7 against anything you propose that requires this, and my legal team will as well.

So you go "there" to help the small guy, and then screw anyone with less than $ 2M of assets.
Tell me it's not so. Us small guys aren't defenseless, not idiots.

If my parents die I'm all of a sudden an entire
class of new investor. It reeks. It's wrong.

[Bill Cara note: Aurator, I have a pointed message to you as well. Where have I proposed qualified investors of $2M taking USD to Switzerland? I have never stated anything of the kind. And what's this b.s. about "your legal team"? If you wish to be polite, then I will be courteous and let you continue.]

2nd
Before I started trading I have made some rule for my self
Never to short a stock, buy short ETF like fxp ETC
Buy necked call or sell cover call only
Buy necked put only
I do not understand bond so I stay away
I do not understand gold metal and commodity, so I stay away

2nd_ave wrote: DavidV- i will have to refer you to Vad's site for more reading on what he calls the (seeming il)logic of market movement.

2nd_ave, I read Vad's site and it is excellent. So basically you think that since a strong dollar bounce has not occurred yet, then most of the market participants are still betting on the dollar's decline, and so all dollar sellers will finish selling soon and only the buyers will remain, is that right?

Re: ABCP

They want them to go bankrupt, since the secondary lien derivates (credit default swaps) are worth far more in notional value than people's pensions invested in ABCP, and all the banks are exposed to them.

You know, come to think of it, ABCP and ETFs are very similar.

You all don't have to be a genius to realize the US Dollar is toast. Going to 40 or less, on the DXY.

This is the only way Paulson and Bernake can save face. They have lied and now need to deceive. They should be imprisoned.

Same thing that ruined Japan.

They are too arrogant to admit the policy has failes, and our fate is much worse than Japan. They are totally clueless.

An you better adjust your portfolio accordingly.

D

[Bill Cara note: Aurator, I do not profess to be a genius, but the USD is NOT going to 40. Sorry]

Got health issues to type and read. Not as clueless as you might think. Sorry; but I only have a limited time and the typos are what they are. I have no time and I cannot see or type any better.

DavidV- i think the USD will bounce/bond yields will rise due to simple mean reversion...i'm more comfortable making the bet in the absence of media attention, as that's an entry point for a contrarian...when they start talking about it, then it becomes a momentum trade (and an entry point for momentum players)...when the momentum peaks, both sets of traders should be selling...none of this means my bet will pay off, or that i will get the timing right-> just putting it out there...(and open to any and all comments)...

2nd,
I'm seeing exactly what you're seeing.

Way too much dollar negativity and bond prices so high foreign investors aren't buying.

Add to that the daily reminders of how short the supply is of any commodity and countless other pump articles on commodities and don't forget that Uncle Ben promised that commodities would come down when he cut rates last time.

I am currently short NEM and may go long some QQQQ calls or DIA calls depending on the numbers tomorrow.

Good trading everyone.

Rob.

Rob- thanks for weighing in...i've seen your own contrarian bets on market direction pay off...

Lelik:
Re: the Roubini article; reminds me that the three most DIStrustful words in the English lexicon are: DE-regulation; SELF-regulation; and PRIvatization.
Three sure ways to pick the pocket of John Q. Public.

aurator- there's a time to work with the system, and a time to fight the system...my take is it's possible to do both simultaneously, but on different levels and with different time frames...changing the system will be a slow process, but one that (ultimately) requires all investors to take part-> your participation on this blog is actually a small but important part of a sea change in investor awareness...in the meantime, it is probably in your interest to work with the system (whether that means trading contrary to or in synch with the market) to maximize gains in your portfolio...i'm a little surprised/disappointed myself to hear that Swiss bank accounts require a minimum of $2m in deposits, but hey, if that's the way it is so be it...

I think you can open a normal Swiss bank account with a minimal amount but, if you want a private bank that is another matter. I don't recall Bill ever saying anything about a 2 million minimum.
Aurator, you owe Bill an apology, now.

OK, I'll make my own contrarian bet. :) Since everyone is expecting commodities to go down now, most of the short selling bets have probably been placed already and those who wanted to take profits probably did already. So I'll start playing long on DBA. It was 43 at its highest point and closed today at 36.45. I am placing a buy stop limit order for tomorrow, stop at 37.01 and limit 37.05.

DavidV

2nd, thanks. I do feel like I'm learning this "dance" as Bill calls it.

I have to admit that I feel like I live in the luckiest time to be learning investing, with free access to such great teachers and wide-ranging viewpoints.

It is truly amazing how much analysis and opinions are available to us here or at other quality sites that would have cost hundreds of dollars to buy in the 70's or 80's.

We really live in a fortunate time when you comprehend the opportunity we have compared to those before us.

I would argue that we have more control over our own personal wealth and destiny now than at any other time in recent history. Even with all the headwinds we're facing, I'm optimistic.

Rob.

I think 95% of everyone still expects commodities to keep going up.

It's the 5% side I want to be on.

Rob.

If the Swiss bank account has a $2 million minimum, and it is out of your reach, think out of the box. There are a lot of smart people here just set up a LLC with a general partner with a minimum of 50,000 or 100,000 or whatever you like. Attract enough limited partners to meet the minimum and you’re in business. The general would be responsible for the sub-accounting etc.

P.S. I thought Bill said it was $250,000 for minimum though.

maromatics -

Thank you for your posts. I have a question concerning your mention of CCI.

I gather you see this indicator as being predictive of the recent correction in Gold.

Can you describe exactly what would have been a "heads-up" using this indicator? If I look at GLD using this indicator CCI(20), Mar 18 gave the a "sell" signal as the indicator dipped from above 100 to below 100. But, same was true for Mar 6th as well...is that what you are referring too?

Wollybear1 is quite right. Let's *read* and be *accurate* before we fly off the handle and make ourselves look silly.

It was mentioned that private Swiss accounts were for qualified individuals with approximately $250,000.

Is your bank safe?

http://beit07.blogspot.com/2008/03/troubles-with-derivatives-in-financial.html

Lehman to raise $3 billion to quash stability fears
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWNAS641920080331

Curious to see how well this goes for LEH.

> I think 95% of everyone still expects
> commodities to keep going up.

> Posted by: Finger Lakes [TypeKey Profile Page] > at March 31, 2008 11:16 PM

I did some reading over the weekend, and EVERY opinion article about commodities written for a wide distribution has warned about speculators leaving commodities now. In any case, DBA has already retraced 50% of its move up since it broke the resistance level at $30, which it has been testing for 1.5 months in the fall. I can't imagine it staying below the current levels for more than a few months. So if I get my order filled at 37 and it goes down by another 10%, I'll buy the same number of shares again at 34 (with a sell limit order at 37). And then at 31 (with a sell limit order at $34). So if it will be oscillating in the 30-37 range for the next year, I should still come out ahead simply by trading it.

DavidV

7 myths about Swiss accounts.

http://tinyurl.com/pe2bb

Personally I would stick with Canadian banks first, then Swiss if things start declining further in the US... but that's because I don't have $2 million yet.

If you're in the US, you should probably look at CAD as a short-term cash investment as it seems to be in the toilet over the last few weeks. Probably room to go back up to $1.03/$1.05 if the commodities recover.

Another fund manager who presented at an investors conference talked of banks in Belize.

If you're looking at any of these options, I would suggest reading http://www.escapeartist.com/

What happened on Feb 26 that caused the rush into Swiss Francs?

http://tinyurl.com/3a9qtz

Since Feb 26 there has been a loss of over 8% of USD vs. Franc. Somebody's dumped a ton of money into Switzerland. CEO of BSC maybe?

I'm calling a temporary bottom on USD vs. Franc along with this guy and his chart...

http://tinyurl.com/3crn5p

So LEH doesn't have any need for the cash, but their going to pay interest on $3B @ 7.5% just for the fun of it? Something is really fishy here AND it is reminding me big time of what happened to BSC a few weeks ago (they did they same thing I think before their crisis). I think investors are big time shorting this stock and another titan may be on its way down...possibly this week?

onlineaces : RE Lehman ..its oversubscribed by institutions..never mind it offered to buy its shares back a few months back at twice the price..now its diluting with preferreds..such is the times we live in...now how do we make money with that scenario?

BTw..MAcromatics was referring to a bearish divergence not a CCI cross down from above signal..even when you see a divergence doesnt mean it occurs immediately on a daily chart..its there on the RSI too..3 days before the monday sell off..alerts and stops work better when you see a divergence like that..hard to call the day...but price will let you know.

Rob/Fingerlakes: The EU announces their PPI numbers on wednesday I believe...you might want to read Vinods post about the ECB..they going to have to juggle inflation vs growth sometime...and that will effect .$ and commodities..just food for thought...you can be early and be a contrarian.and not use stops.hard to be one and do the other these days....:)