I think in the future we will go back to business creativity instead of financial creativity.

I believe a shift away from Services will take place in the US.

Alternatives for Oil will contribute to this change.

There seems to be a lost of momentum in Services expressed as % of GDP.

See "Service Fatigue"

"Apocalypse With Consumers"

Howard Davidowitz discusses the outlook for retailers (and it ain't pretty). (4 min. video, Bloomberg):

http://tinyurl.com/2n2ync

if they can't run the market into EOQ, things must really be bad...maybe the redemptions leave them with little ammo...

see also what colin twiggs has to say, including a warning about bull traps:

http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

meant to say if they can't run the market UP into EOQ...

The question usually asked on Fridays is do you hold for the weekend or do you sell. Data for all weekdays in 2008 for SPY, DIA, and FXP shows the following:

DIA: Fridays: 10 down days, 2 up days, average return -0.81%

SPY: Fridays: 10 down days, 2 up days, average -0.75%

FXP: Fridays: 5 down days, 7 up days, average +0.16%

Past performance is no indication of future performance but given the current market conditions selling on Thursdays seems like a good proposition for the DOW. FXP is a strange animal altogether that usually goes up on Wednesdays and Thursday. Data for each weekday is show at:

http://tinyurl.com/yp9ogk

This may be explained by the fact that catastrophic news may happen at any time, but it is difficult to think of any potentially fantastic news that may occur during a weekend.

I think everything points to a loss of control or collapse in the futures markets, which are literally overwhelmed with players, and deeply dependant on liquidity at the same time.

interesting data, SiO2...if the 'right' move to make is the opposite of what most investors do, it may augur well for anyone holding FXP this weekend...

..or maybe not...i was thinking FXI, not FXP...in which case it's interesting that comparisons are being made between two broad US indexes, and one leveraged ultrashort?

Paulson's plan will "juice" the PPT. They have had those jokers in there "for stability" all along, and look where we are.

" ...The plan also calls for beefing up the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, an interagency body founded in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash. It said the group's "focus should be broadened to include the entire financial sector, rather than solely financial markets."
Reports Saturday said Paulson will formally present the new proposals Monday, adding that the reshuffle of responsibilities could ignite turf wars among the various agencies involved. ..."

Some youngsters here might not know of tougher times in the US. Food stamps, Medicaid healthcare for the poor/impaired, public housing, Appalacian poverty zones, seniors eating catfood were all big issues just 40 years ago. Some would say that it was the result of a Gov that kept choosing "guns over butter" with WWII, Korea, and VietNam taking precidence over internal needs. Some would say that we currently have a CorpGov that aids the profiteering in wars and speculation activities.

With that in mind, start reading the linked comment from this paragraph:

" ... Wheat, Corn, Soybeans Advance on Supply Risk (mind you this supply risk did not suddenly disappear last week and then reappear - it simply speculation moving these commodities and stocks up/down 20% for no good fundamental reason - gold I can understand - but not these agricultural products but again to Wall Street corn = oil = wheat = coffee = gold = copper = soybeans = iron ore = all just a fun plaything for hedge funds levered 30:1) ... "

http://tinyurl.com/23oqzm

Don Coxe's weekly webcast is up.

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp

Re: superior unhedged junior precious metals developers.

Did this report/list from the recent gold conference come out from the Cara group that attended?

[Bill Cara note: The Report on the Junior Mining Explorers and Developers from Jock's group is in preparation. Like the other reports that are being processed, there was a substantial lead time to organize. We are pushing ahead on Karl's Fast 100 Report (candidates for rapid growth at relatively low risk) right now while Jock is on vacation for several weeks in Italy. I'm not too concerned about the timing because I believe that commodity prices and share prices are headed lower in this bear market. In any case, several of us are working hard to produce these reports plus another one for the Income Investor.]

Swiss Banks may be much less secure now that numerous governments (other than Switzweland) are no longer willing to look the other way as these banks aid and abet tax evasion.

"Most analysts say big Swiss banks like UBS and Credit Suisse, which make most of their money outside Switzerland, would do just fine without banking secrecy. But Mr. Hummler said such secrecy is vital for the small private banks, a stable business with fat margins even in bad times."

http://tinyurl.com/24tn5w

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/29/business/worldbusiness/29swiss.html?ei=5065&en=be96c778a5f8828a&ex= 1207368000&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

[Bill Cara note: The recent hubub over private banking strikes me as little more than facism. The fact is that some high tax (and high spend) jurisdictions are in trouble; making all countries follow the same model is hardly the solution when it's not related to the cause.]

2nd, there is little reason to compare FXP with DIA or SPY, that data just tries to see if there is a pattern for Fridays. FXP is barely positive on Fridays. The pattern seems to be there for the broad indexes. There may be more to it though.

lessmore, your link is too long, please use tinyurl.com in the future.

F6

Thanks for the update Bill! Hope you are well. I will make time to order your book this weekend.

FranSix

lessmore's link

http://tinyurl.com/2j5sre

Thanks Bill!

We’re seeing lots of clues for a bullish case next week. Perhaps the most important one is that breadth for the market overall this week, surprisingly, was about the same as last week, roughly in the order of +15%! The price charts certainly do not show this. Often times when we see a down week in the indexes with positive breadth there is some serious sector rotation going on.

This week the broadest buying (on a percentage basis) was in Biotech, Energy, Materials, Metals & Mining. The broadest selling was in Financials, Homebuilders, Real Estate and Retail sectors. Make what you will of it.

But, yes, overall, things are looking up from here, which might mean time to load up in big puts, LOL!

Good Trading All…
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

What do you think about SIGM
Around 27 million shares in the float
Around 11 million shares short
PE 9.6
I am looking to enter this on Monday in my IRA
I am also looking to buy jan 2009 in the money call

[Bill Cara note: Sigma Designs (SIGM) is one of the Cara Fast 100 Companies. Our report is in progress. There was a Buy Alert a week ago. I like it, but I'd like to hear why the short ratio is so high.]

Mark O'Byrne has posted an article strongly disputing recent allegations against Perth Mint: http://tinyurl.com/3dz4k5

Food for mind from my favorite Italian blogger:

1) Barron's cover: danger on commodities bubble - The whole article
http://tinyurl.com/2us3o8

2) Bulls vs. bears on agri-commodities
http://tinyurl.com/3dsvum

3) Bonds are overbought
http://tinyurl.com/2qukvz

vinod- SIGM (along with SNDK) was mentioned in an article by John Dvorak as a rebound candidate in the technology sector:

http://tinyurl.com/2fh9aa

Dvorak follows the SEMI book-to-bill ratio, which is something I also track. Data for the past 15 months:

Book-to-Bill Ratio Release Date

0.93 3/18/2008
0.89 2/21/2008
0.85 1/17/2008
0.82 12/20/2007
0.80 11/15/2007
0.79 10/18/2007
0.82 9/19/2007
0.83 8/16/2007
0.91 7/17/2007
0.98 6/19/2007
0.98 5/22/2007
0.99 4/19/2007
0.98 3/15/2007
1.00 2/15/2007
1.01 1/18/2007

so clearly an uptrend the past six months...technology stocks should begin to catch bids once the ratio breaks back above 1...release date for March ratio will be 4/17...

In addition to the Barron’s article cited by Lelik, .U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its annual report on how much farmers will be planting of which grains. The report holds big implications for livestock farmers, ethanol plants, food companies and consumers.

This will be very closely followed. Hedge funds in this sector may overreact to initial news. Appears there will be volatility in the agriculture & commodity arenas Monday.

http://tinyurl.com/269cyy

Vinod

Massachusetts Semi equipment manufacturer TER may benefit from upswing in Semis. Worth placing on the watch list.

re USDA report in 8:57p.m. post

U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its annual report ON MONDAY.

ALOHA !!

How can Afghanistan or Iraq be stabilized with relentless tribal warfare? There can be no foreign investment until there is safety. More than five years later here is a report from the US Embassy post in Kabul. This is a report posted by US and foreign ex-pats to describe the conditions of service in Kabul. There is no spin here from US government agencies with agendas. This is a full on "ground report"! It seems to be a prison of our own making. While terrorists have a free ride to Guantanamo Prison the USA has to contend with the money-pit prisons of Afghanistan and Iraq!

There will come a day like there was in Vietnam when we as a country can no longer monetarily afford the "War On Terror" and we will have to leave whether we want to or not. The faster the US Dollar falls the sooner that day will come. It's just that simple! A USSR redux ... only this time its the USSA.

Link: http://www.talesmag.com/index.shtml

READ ON:
Kabul
March 27, 2008

Pollution index: Horrible dust year-round plus additional junk in the air in the winter when everything that can be burned for fuel is. During my winter there, a visitor asked, “What's that smell like sh** burning?” The answer was, “Sh** burning.” If you exercise outdoors, you're likely to cough up black gunk afterwards.

Security concerns: Rocket attacks, IEDs, suicide bombers—your basic war zone.

Housing: Huge inequites. Either you will live in a large one-bedroom apartment in a reinforced building or you will live in a 10-by-15-foot non-reinforced hooch (trailer) and listen to your colleagues complain about everything they think is wrong with their apartments.

Is this a good city for families/singles/couples? It's currently an unaccompanied post. Spouses are allowed only if they're employed at the embassy. It's a good post for anyone who doesn't mind spending a year in a minimum security prison.

Interesting/fun things to do in the area: Check how many days are left on your tour tracker.

Items you would ship if you could do it again: As many dirt-colored clothes as I could find. The dust and dirt are unrelenting. It's impossible to keep anything clean. I threw away lots of clothes and shoes at the end of my tour.

English-language newspapers and TV available? Cost? Does Stars & Stripes count as a newspaper?

Is high speed internet access available? Cost? Internet service is provided free in all apartments and hooches, though the system is frequently overloaded and slow. Sometimes it goes down completely when it rains or snows…or when someone in Poland sneezes in the wrong direction.

Entertaining/social life: The “drink a lot/sleep around” contingent (made up of singles and marrieds alike) appeared to be quite active. END

I suspect I screwed up when I sold my SKF yesterday. There seems to be a lot of blood in the financial waters now. At least I held onto a small position of it.

As always, when I sell a position, it usually signals a meteoric rise in that stock shortly there after. We'll see come Monday.

Two letters to the editor's at barron's:

Bear Hunt

To the Editor:
Re: the Bear Stearns bailout ("The Deal -- Rhymes With Steal -- of a Lifetime," March 24). The rationale is always the same: We will use any and all means to keep bankruptcies of banks from spilling over into the real economy.

For those of us who are not investment bankers, this requires some explanation. What is perfectly clear is that Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson are using someone else's money to help bankers: our money.

By swapping U.S. Treasuries for dubious asset-backed paper, and by providing no-recourse rollover loans to Bear, and by flooding the world with ever more dollars, these gentlemen are diluting the dollar. This amounts to taking a little bit of value out of every dollar-denominated savings account to pay the bankers and brokers.

The argument is that if the government doesn't take these actions, Main Street will be hit much harder than in the devaluation of their savings accounts. However, this isn't an obvious proposition. If Bear goes belly-up, so what? Won't the world go on? Won't Bears' assets go into receivership, same as if anyone else goes broke? Those who invested foolishly will lose their money, and be smarter next time. That's market discipline.

I don't fear Bear's demise as much as I fear the actions of those who would raid everyone's savings and ruin the dollar in order to dump helicopter-loads of money on this Wall Street problem. They act as though they are rescuing the market, but in fact they seem to be rescuing particular individuals and firms. The market is always there. Bottom fishers come in and pick the bones.

What would be the consequences of Bear failing without intervention? How bad would that be? Could it be that the good doctors' medicines are worse than the disease?

Frederick W. Horn
Glendora, Calif.

Time Machine

To the Editor:
The March 10 "How to Avoid the Three Big Mistakes" article said the three errors in retirement investing are "failing to diversify wisely, trying to time the market and overpaying on investment expenses."

This assumes that every timer fails miserably. Those of us who have been out of the market for some time this year, and who were out of it most of the time from March 15, 2000, through March 17, 2003, didn't suffer the horrible losses that occurred during these periods.

And how well-defined is this diversified portfolio? If you look at stocks, there were times when people thought that WorldCom and Enron were pillars of a well-diversified portfolio. Would you have ridden those to zero, or would you have sold when the technical indicators were a screaming sell?

The proper keys to making money are timing and selection. If you care about your readers, tell them how to do that.

Joel Williams
Silver Spring, Md.

“Z George” reported in the weekly audios that several shipments of crude oil have been diverted to China instead of Australia resulting in unplanned refinery shut downs. China has stopped exporting coal, and imports 25% of it’s oil.

The significance is that it is concrete evidence we have peak oil looming, and things are about to get dicey. US production peaked in 2005, and we have had consistent and growing deficits in domestic/imported crude that have been hidden due to gas to liquids and coal to liquids production.

Everything is about to hit the wall. This has a good chance of putting crude to $160 this year and causing the Arabs to decouple from the US Dollar and trade in a basket of currencies.

Got Gold?

PS "Z George" likes this jr. Canadian miner:

PMM TSX.V

http://www.phoenixmatachewan.com/index.php

Man, with the Paulson deal, I'm not sure after reading quite a lot, whether Financials will boom or bust Monday. I just hate all this intervention! Fundamentals, Technicals, Sentiment, Due Diligence, and... Intervention.

Own quite a lot of SKF and SRS. Excellent Don Coxe audio !!! gives me a nanomeasure more confidence. What is the root link to get that weekly?

Got up at quarter to 5 and downloaded Tim Wood's commentary. Interesting, but same 'ol "we are on the precipice and have looked into the abyss".
Yup, we did. Yup it will collapse. When? Before I die of a heart attack anticipating it, or a day after (don't answer that!).

Bush is having about the same level of success with the financial crisis, as with the war in Iraq. Throw some more money at it; our widows and orphans and fixed income retirees will never know the difference, since we are sending them free money. Send them into the financial crossfire with inadequate vests and unarmored vehicles. They were just going to die anyway.

Change the Generals at the top, since the last bunch reported reality instead of what I wanted to hear. There can be no failures on my watch.

If this Fed engineered bottom holds, I will only be for a few months. Will have to trade my buns off, which I prefer not to do. Holding all the Gold and Gold miners, holding and adding to all energy, energy juniors, and alternative energy.

Not born yesterday, but slapped silly by the Markets yesterday.

The state I grew up in went bust, (OH) and I bailed (again). Now the country I grew up in is totally corrupted, (and probablly bust), and I can't (yet) afford to bail. Noodling where. Bahamas may not be a bad idea, but that humidity kills me.

Half an hour at it today, and I need the Gaviscon, and the Coffee has not finished brewing yet. May your day begin much more insightful and relaxed.

Toward transparency and accountability.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/

Seamus

I checked with friend who works at TER and found that they are not doing well at this moment.

Also my neighbor works at SONS and they are working 7 days a week lately
He tells me that accounting and back date option problem is gone
And stock will do very good with in one year. Problem is guy who started and runs the company is scientist and not good at running the company

2nd
I decided to buy sigm on Monday also put in tight stop on ESLR
Looks like when market goes down all stocks goes down most of the time
For me March is not as productive as February and I must work hard

Thanks god I found this Bill Cars’s web site

dr. cosa,

When I click the link you posted for Don Coxe's weekly commentary I get one posted last week, March 20, 2008.

Does anyone have a link to this week's?

Re: Don Coxe Webcasts

The windowsplayer version is usually posted right away, but the realplayer version doesn't get posted until the week after.

For some reason, the windowsplayer version no longer works on Mac System X browsers and will crash the browser programme.

The realplayer version works well without software-related faults, but has not yet been updated.

SF (commercial) real estate magnate Doug Shorenstein (along with company board member/harvard professor William Poorvu) talking about getting positioned for the next bounce:

http://tinyurl.com/2s2r6u

excerpts:

"Poorvu: I'm on five endowment boards; we've put money into Shorenstein in each of these funds. The reason for it, and what he's getting at, is that this is a market where cash equity takes over, since you can't get the debt money.

This is also true in the housing market. I think there's going to be some terrific buys for people over the next year or two, and for the people who have been conservative and put away their cash, cash becomes king."

"Shorenstein: I think we're definitely in a down cycle, there's very little debt available in the market today and the debt has been keeping the investment side of the market very buoyant for the last few years.

So prices have to come down and in fact are coming down. We're beginning to see signs of distress where people have very highly leveraged properties, properties with a lot of debt on them.

Some of that debt was short-term debt, debt that's coming due and there's very little relief out there for such owners. They're caught and they're going to have to sell, and they're going to have to sell at a point in time where buyers are going to have an advantage.

I think we're at a point now, where if you have lots of dry powder, you're in a good position. And if you aren't spending your time playing defense with existing problems, you're in a very good position. We also are at the beginning of a down market, we're in a recession, I believe, and in all recessions, we see a contraction of service jobs, which results in lower rents. So the revenue side of the business will be impacted."

Barrick spent some money this week on a gold exploration project in the Pacific next to Lihir Gold.

I surmise that we will see more of this kind of activity soon, and that perhaps we are set up for gold juniors and investment capital forming a closer knit web, that companies will take greater interest in buying out chunks of one another.

George Ure wrote an excellent piece this week entitled "The Bankster's Coup" I would encourage everyone to read this article on how power is shifting in the US from our elected government to private banking interests. This is a significant tipping point in American history:

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

If I may add, I am confused at why gold companies with projects outside of the U.S. are still accepting payment for bullion in $U.S. and have not yet switched to a currency of choice.

From the standpoint of costs, and currency risk, there would be an advantage to doing so.

I suppose that would go for oil companies operating outside the U.S. that have hedged forward production in $US and are losing money when the dollar continues to decline.

FranSix,

Thanks for the info about the Don Coxe webcast.

I was finally able to listen to this week's commentary by running VirtualPC on my Mac Powerbook. It's too bad BMO is so cavalier toward Mac users.

Also another thing to watch for is what happens to Northgate minerals. They had a large chunk of their money poured into Asset Backed Commercial Paper. This money is probably a complete write off. Its a fairly problematic company, so it might serve to watch for a bit to see what happens.

Gold companies that invested in other gold companies with their available cash needing a place to accrue actually did fairly well.

Re: ETFs

I think that ETFs storing gold or silver should continue to index to the underlying asset, but should any ETF fail because their liquidity dries up tied to the financial sector, then this would damage ETFs in general.

Zenob! dont pay no never mind to those suspicions....better to work on healthy habits for swing traders..leave some for the next guy to enjoy.

Market is in a wide trading range ( 5-7% every 5-7 days...dream come true )...lots of opportunities to make money..dont stress over leaving some money on the table and being a perfectionist..

For now..till the highs and lows are broken..try a mean reversion approach to this market..pay more attention to the Daily RSI then to the MACD. No trend strength..check the charts. Check the Qs if following a MACD signal vs a RSI.

If I was a long only mutual fund manager..no need to buy this market as the quarter is shot already..no different than sales guys reserving some ammo for the next quarter.

IF I was a hedge fund manager..either direction is good and taking advantage of the range to heal the portfolios.

RE SIGM:
Fair bit of insider selling:
http://tinyurl.com/36pgb2

EEMt-

the quarter is indeed shot as far as buy-and-hold investors, so buying at this point will not be for the purpose of putting smiles on clients' faces...however, there will be a significant number of fund managers for whom the possibility of beating their benchmarks/earning bonuses still exists, so i would expect at least some buying at the close in their positions...(human nature being what it is, there can be no doubt any manager with a shot at a bonus is going to pull out the stops-> they pay mortgages, buy cars, take vacations like the rest of us)...

the best ammo available (for a rally) is a short squeeze, so from a sunday afternoon perspective, my guess would be a gap down open (into which selling ultrashorts into strength would make sense)-> this would set up a bear trap, which would then be sprung as we enter the close...and of course, anyone buying into the close mayt likewise be entering a bull trap...

disclosure: no positions other than longs in ESLR and BMD at the moment...and of course, no recommendations that anyone trade on a wild guess...

2nd Ave: "however, there will be a significant number of fund managers for whom the possibility of beating their benchmarks/earning bonuses still exists, so i would expect at least some buying at the close in their positions."

huh..? thats like saying at some point someone on this earth is having lunch or dinner..

you have a way to find out its fund managers buying fed by bonus motivation.....?let me know I want to track it.

Signs increasingly point to an attack on Iran in the near future (weeks, probably not months, as the logistics they are maintaining are not indefinitely sustainable). I would love to be wrong about this, but be forewarned.

MtnGntx: Do you subscribe to stratfor? Is that why Admiral Fallon 'retired' ?

No, I don't. And, most probably a noble gester by General Fallon. It will take sometime for the new administration to establish itself in his absence. Which does confuse the issue. Nevertheless, the early warning lights are all starting to blink.

MtnGntx:I fyou feel apropriate..perhaps you can share what you are seeing hearing in the grapevine?

That Esquire article did the country a favor and Admiral Fallon an injustice..he has been the voice/force of reason out there.

So much for a system that uses 'thought police' to moderate and regulate the expression of qualified inidividuals.

Seeing too much of that lately.

Golden Arrow begins drilling at San Jose
Listed on the: TSX VENTURE: GRG.v
Last @.80cts

2008-03-04 09:47 ET - News Release

Mr. Joseph Grosso reports

PHASE I DRILL PROGRAM UNDERWAY ON GOLDEN ARROW'S SAN JOSE GOLD PROJECT, ARGENTINA

Golden Arrow Resources Corp. has commenced a minimum 19-hole, 2,200-metre diamond drill program on its 100-per-cent-owned San Jose gold project in Jujuy province, northwest Argentina. The San Jose property hosts high-grade gold quartz vein occurrences and stockwork-related, bulk-tonnage-style gold mineralization. The company has carried out extensive surface channel sampling on the project over the past two years, identifying three significant mineralized zones along a 1.2-kilometre trend within gold-in-soil anomalies. All three zones will be tested during the current drill program.

Highlights from channel sampling include:

14.0 metres at 0.89 gram per tonne (g/t) gold, including 5.5 metres at 1.66 g/t gold from SJT01 (see the company's Aug. 15, 2006, news release in Stockwatch);
17.0 metres at 1.15 g/t gold, including 3.0 metres at 3.42 g/t gold from SJT02 (see the company's Aug. 15, 2006, news release in Stockwatch);
7.0 metres at 1.39 g/t gold from SJT04 (see the company's Aug. 15, 2006, news release in Stockwatch);
17.5 metres at 1.70 g/t gold, including 5.0 metres at 5.30 g/t gold from SJT05 (see the company's Aug. 15, 2006, news release in Stockwatch);
32 metres at 0.77 g/t gold from SJT08 (see the company's Aug. 15, 2006, news release in Stockwatch);
23 metres at 0.99 g/t gold from SJT23 (see the company's Dec. 11, 2006, news release in Stockwatch);
10 metres at 1.70 g/t gold from SJT31 (see the company's Dec. 11, 2006, news release in Stockwatch).

The San Jose gold property is located in the Sierra de Rinconada, which comprises a continuous northeast-trending belt covering an area of 30 kilometres by 130 kilometres. This is underlain by folded Middle Ordovician turbidite sediments that host small orogenic gold deposits at Minas Azules, Rinconada, El Carmen and El Torno, and larger examples along its northern extension in Bolivia (Amayapampa -- 600,000 ounces and Lipichi) and Peru (Pataz -- greater than six million ounces. These deposits are aligned parallel to the fold trend and generally occupy the flanks of regional anticlines. Although gold deposits in Sierra de Rinconada share many characteristics with well-documented orogenic gold deposits in Phanerozoic fold belts elsewhere (Bendigo, eastern Australia, Meguma Terrane, Nova Scotia, Tien Shan, central Asia), this belt has received little modern exploration.

Golden Arrow's management team is one of the most experienced in the field today. The company is a member of the Grosso Group and is an industry leader in the exploration for precious metal discoveries. Its team consists of industry professionals that have earned a reputation for creating value for shareholders by identifying new opportunities through their extensive experience in the exploration industry and their diverse network of contacts in South America.

We seek Safe Harbor.

EEMT- not sure i understand your question...are you asking whether i can document whether fund managers are compensated at least partly on performance, with performance being evaluated against some type of benchmark (as opposed to absolute returns)? my understanding is that this is almost always the case...

if they are rewarded on fund return exceeding some type of benchmark, then odds are high that some of them have bonuses riding on either maintaining or achieving outperformance by monday's close...in which case i would argue they are incentivized to drive up the prices of whichever portfolio positions hold the key to winning...

can you track it? not without knowing holdings on a real-time basis...as a proxy, you might simply look at closing NAVs on a daily basis- if you know the underlying benchmark, then keeping an eye on top ten holdings as of last quarter may give you an idea of how they're doing...

IN recent months, a massive redesign and retrofit of bombers was undertaken in order to affix the latest generation of armament against hardened, fixed installations (bunkers). These asset improvements are probably complete. These bombers have recently been deployed to forward bases.

As of early this month, there are two warships equiped with a vast array of rocketry and electronic jamming equipment currently off the coast of Lebanon...ostensibly as a sign of solidarity with Israel... but in perfect and essential position to act as a blocking force in an aerial assault over Iranian, Syrian, and Lebanese territories.

Last week, one of our nuke subs made a very rare, relatively risky, and surprisingly public crossing through Saudi waters. It was being sent somewhere in a hurry and/or was intended as a message. These subs are renowned for stealth, not as public displays of strength in possible war zones.

As of this past week, we have reached the same level of hardware (ships and planes) deployed in the region before the initial 2003 strike... and not seen since.

Earlier this month, Israeli military advised the Israel population to equip and solidify its bunkers and safe areas in preparation of possible "sustained bombardment" from rocket assault.

The Saudi Elite have suddenly (post Cheney)ordered a national plan be generated for its population to deal with the circumstances surrounding nuclear fall-out.

Russian intelegence releases statement yesterday that they have been observing a flurry of activity recently along the Iranian border by US forces... movements indicative of a massive air and possibly ground offensive.

Recent incursion of Israel airforce on sorties and into lebananese and syrian territories in order to force defensive installations to 'light them up.' Intended to locate and assess electronic installations (first-class Soviet made hardware recently imported and installed under Soviet Military advisement.)

Aside from Fallon, varius diplomatic and political events have recently occurred including Petraeus announcement of documentable Iranian armament deployed against recent green zone attacks (those same attacks that have Baghdad currently under curfew... and green zone employees currently sleeping in bunkers and wearing flak jackets when it is absolutely necessary for them to go outside).

Mike McConnel, Director of National Intelegence recently testified before Congress, stating that he might have erred in under-estimating Iran's Nuclear Weapons program when submitting the last National Intelegence Estimate (the one stating that Iran was essentially toothless in this regard.)

Perhaps most importantly, Bush's sudden and ongoing demeanor of euphoria as noted by a dubious press.

THese are a few of the issues that come to mind as potentially relevant. Of course, instability of the Markets also fits well in this political strategy.

My intentions are not to cause unnecessary fear, but rather a healthy dose of caution in the face of very real, if potential, eventuality.

Sincerely.

Whew, Those are some scary developments. It makes sense if you think about it from a political standpoint.

Election year and they don't want us so angry we vote in Ron Paul.

The latest Bull Market in 2003 began the day we started war against Iraq.

Bernacke needs to inflate without compromising the dollar too much. War is always inflationary so he'll have an excuse to hyper-inflate.

And another war will take our attention off from the banks' (private problems) especially if the market takes off like it did in 03. And Unemployment will magically be lowered as more of our "reserves" get sent to "full-time" missions.

And it will likely be started by the New and Improved PPT, inducing the bigger players to jump in or miss the "Big Rally of 08"

Another war is the last thing we need right now but it all seems so crazy that it could just happen. With all of the intervention we've seen these past few months, I don't think anything can be ruled out.

Remember there's nothing as dangerous and unpredictable as a cornered animal.

Cheers to Safe trading this week everyone!!

Rob.

Cdnxtracker - Golden Arrow

Do you have a position in this company? Do you have any other relationship with them? Any other disclosures to make? TIA

Bush Administration - a disaster, or the "perfect disaster" ?

I have long expected that only a financial crisis was needed to make bush'es admin. the perfect disaster.

Now, with McCain refusing Secret Service protection and Obama supporters (understandably) fearing violence against their candidate, is there to be yet another possible dimension to this "perfect" disaster?

I hope that mention of this will act like taking an umbrella to prevent rain ...

i'm going to be staying in downtown chicago in a couple weeks for work. anybody know if there's any decent coin shops in town? TIA

Jock- excellent 5:16 comment. I hadn't seen any media on this, which I assume is where you found it. I have been thinking along the lines of Obama's safety and I have had the same feeling about it. It doesn't matter if I am a supporter or not- it is worrying.

Ah, I have it.

Re: Futures in $US

Anybody engaging in futures contracts for risk management denominated in $US, is bound to seek a hedge in currencies if the $US declines.

The present geopolitical situation requires caution, therefore. "Walking on eggshells" is the order of the day when considering opting out of $US.

RE: commodity links provided by Lelik today.

Can anyone explain why commercial commodity players have been increasing their short positions as the commodity prices were rising? Is it just the way they do their hedging? Or does the size of their short positions indeed indicate their belief about the future market direction? If it is the latter, as claimed in the links, then long commodity players should be careful. But somehow I feel that it is the former, since the size of their short positions seems to be perfectly correlated with the commodity prices, and the commercial players can't be so stupid as to ALWAYS be wrong. So they are probably hedging their future sales by increasingly shorting commodities as they rise. But I might be wrong... Can someone comment on this?

Thanks,

DavidV

Vinod Thanks for friend’s update on TER.

2nd, EEMtrader Reference hedge fund performance and bonuses.

FWIW, EOQ dressing can include hedge funds adding to short positions (market down) to impress clients.
Posted by: Seamus at March 28, 2008 4:34 PM

Just another viewpoint. S&P is down more than 10% since 1st of year.

Full disclosure on GRG.v

Yes, I do now hold a position in GRG.v. I am
currently down on my investment as I bought at
higher prices then the close on Friday.

[Bill Cara note: If I might suggest, please do not reproduce corporate news releases here. It's fine to provide a link (using Tinyurl), particularly when you comment as to what's in the corp info that you find so remarkable. Thank you.]

shanghai opens down 3.2%...

Instead of linking straight to my charts on stockcharts.com, I uploaded them to my google account just to see how it will work. These are my 10 day/60 minute charts for SKF/XLF and FXP/FXI. If you look at the MACD of XLF/SKF you can see where it looked like it was going to cross Friday but it did a little head fake instead(RSI on SKF is running hot too). If you look at FXI/FXP the MACD is a mess. It's basically a lumpy line. It looks like it wants to cross down on FXI but it's hard to tell. The interesting thing on those charts is the volume on FXI. Look at the timing on the huge volume spikes. Every day, at the same time. I don't know what's causing that. It's very orderly though whatever it is.

http://picasaweb.google.com/Boosterz/Charts

Paulson Executive Summary
http://tinyurl.com/2cyzuw (pdf)

His interview with wsj on saturday
http://tinyurl.com/252q8k

[Bill Cara note: The conclusions in the Exec Summary should be dismissed on the basis that the premise (ie, sub-prime borrowers are at fault) is wrong and that the financial system is not dysfunctional. It is the financial system that needs to be changed. What is needed is to separate the financial services credit regime from the asset-based capital markets. Each system needs its own checks and balances.

Re the WSJ Paulson interview, let me leave you with the thought... Katrina, Paulson, Katrina, Paulson... both exposed the weak underbelly of America, but Americans didn't need either catastrophe... The comments to this wsj article should be the only required reading.]