Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Downgrade:

BBBY - to Underweight @ JP Morgan

New Coverage:

GRMN - Sell @ Stanford Research
INTC - Neutral @ Piper Jaffray

Target Price Raised:

RIMM - $140 to $150 @ RBC

Target Price Lowered:

AET - $68 to $53 @ Lehman Bros.

------------------------------------------------

Back with more when/if they happen. Have a good day and a better weekend.

Cara 100 Update:

ABX upgraded to Overweight @ HSBC

[Bill Cara note: Barrick CEO Greg Wilkins quite ill.
http://tinyurl.com/2klon5]

As always, good point Bill. Here in Oz I'm seeing the same problems taking place on a daily basis. We have huge foreign hedge funds moving in and out of our market, blatantly manipulating prices and moving back offshore with a bag of coin, doing so with impunity, the retail investor cannot go "short" here in the market. We have the Governor of our reserve bank Glenn Stevens asking our four major banks to come forward and declare what they have off balance sheet, SIV'S,CDO's, how bad are things boys, not even they know. Just today, one of our mid level brokers went belly up, that makes two in the last month.
Housing prices, we now have some of the most expensive real estate in the world and on top of that some of the highest interest rates in the world. We have a disaster of epic proportions waiting to happen on our hands, yet the government blithley sit's on it's hands, mesmerized by the duty & tax flowing into it's coffers, the thought of any social responsibility, non existent.
At least North America has a vibrant fifth estate to agitate for change & reform in the capital markets. In Oz the average mum & dad are very trusting & naive. Cramer would have a field day here. We need to be educated. At the moment all I see here is a bunch of fish sitting in a barrel and a very large man with a big gun and a bag and a grin. As always Bill & Others thank you for some brilliant posts.

Cara 100 News:

JCP cuts outlook:

http://tinyurl.com/2axbpf

Look out below.

end of quarter ramp, if it's to hit the 12,800 range, needs to start today...

Good morning (from a country where our days are getting shorter, and the mood a bit darker)

What is the outlook for US bonds, especially as yields have edged up since their recent lows?

Considering both technical and fundamental factors, I conclude that continued base formation is likely, but that long-dated bond prices could be hit hard once yields adjust to more realistic levels. Be careful – we're in injury time.

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/yod3f7

not saying they can do it, but the headline set-up is in place...

also have richard band out with DJIA 16,000 by 2009:
http://tinyurl.com/236tup

BullHunter, "ouch"! on JCP. Looks like it'll test the Jan lows, and then we'll see what happens.

Interesting to view the Personal spending report today (+.5%) in light of the JCP report...

Which do I believe? Both! Average people spending more on necessities (fuel, food, etc) and less at JCP.

Dave

gold taking a hit this morning,
yet USD index up only a few fractions,

DaveB,

I agree. Necessities cost more. Of course, the pollyannas will spin this as meaning we're back in the land of milk and honey.

Regards

This headline should read: Philly Council mixes title of “Sheriff” with “Robin Hood” and says “rob the rich - give to the poor”. Oops, that last part was from Ayn Rand. Here’s the title, and snip as printed, and the link: Any lawyers on that Council?

“Philadelphia City Council Suspends Foreclosure Sales, Calls for a Six Month Moratorium
Housing Wire has learned that the City Council of Philadelphia passed a resolution Thursday afternoon calling for the Sheriff’s Department to immediately suspend all foreclosure sales in the county scheduled for April — essentially imposing a 30-day “pause” on any foreclosures that had been scheduled to be auctioned off during the month (foreclosure sales are held monthly). The resolution also calls for the Sheriff to seek an additional six month moratorium through the courts ...”
http://tinyurl.com/3dprrw

Roubini speaking currently on c-span taking call ins. c-span and cnbc are seperated by a single channel on my Dish-TV, but seperated by much more in terms of rhetoric

Thanks for the heads up, JR.

Regards

Personal spending report likely includes inflation effects. It tells nothing about retailer margins.

Not that market will care, but KB Home (KBH) just delivered results and a forecast the echoes that of fellow builder Lennar yesterday.

Bottom? Far from it.

"gold taking a hit this morning,
yet USD index up only a few fractions,"

Good observation Dr. Cosa as this is a typical trend when the NY market opens. Sudden drops in gold/silver prices without any substantial reasons to support the drops other than the infamous "profit taking" explanation. It seems improving demand/supply fundamentals in precious metals do not lead to rising prices in the NY market, as it does in all other global markets. Nothing like disconnecting the golden alarm bell!

Ciao - Fireworks

how far do those sub-prime tentacles reach?

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--The subprime crisis has indirectly caught up with Dell Inc. (DELL), the world's second-largest computer seller, and it could also affect other top tech companies.

For 11 years, Dell has contracted with New York-based commercial lender CIT Group Inc. (CIT) to provide its customers with loans to finance their Dell product purchases. About a tenth of Dell's sales last year involved CIT Group in some way.

CIT is now reeling under the weight of its investments in subprime mortgages. Last week, its future was called into question after the lender said it had tapped a $7.3 billion line of credit in order to continue day-to-day operations through the end of the year.

Given CIT's recent news, Dell could be on the hook for all of the $455 million in outstanding loans CIT facilitated for Dell customers, should CIT go the way of other financial services companies felled by their subprime investments, according to several sources at Dell who were briefed on the situation.

"In light of the current situation, we're watching and assessing the situation," a Dell spokesman said. "We're paying attention to what's going on. We still view CIT as a valued partner."

CIT also has similar lending relationships with telecommunications provider Avaya Inc. (AV) and computer software kingpin Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), which could put those tech firms in the same situation facing Dell. Avaya and Microsoft had no immediate comment.

"We are fully committed to supporting Dell and all of our valued vendor-finance clients, and will continue to service their vendor-financing needs," CIT said in a statement.

Exactly how much Dell stands to lose is difficult to determine, given Dell and CIT representatives didn't provide details of how they operate, and regulatory filings referring to the relationship lack detailed information.

Even if Dell's on the hook for all of the $455 million, the kerfuffle amounts to a minor blip for Dell from a fiscal perspective, given the Round Rock, Texas, computer maker's $10 billion or so in cash flow last year.

The Dell spokesman did not elaborate on what it's now assessing, whether there's any timeline on a decision, and what options the company faces.

CIT currently offers finance programs for Dell's customers in Canada and in more than 40 other countries throughout Europe, Asia, Latin America and the South Pacific. CIT continues to have the option to provide funding to Dell's financial services division through January 2010.

The relationship between Dell and CIT dates back to 1997, when the two created a joint venture so Dell could offer business-customer financing. Two years into operations, the joint venture also began lending money to consumers.

Partnering with CIT helped to goose sales in a way that helped Dell also expand its profit margins.

Dell ultimately bought out CIT's piece of their joint venture. But by nature of their agreement, CIT's still on the hook for $450 million of the approximately $2.1 billion that Dell has loaned to customers, according to Dell.

As for Avaya, its agreement with CIT was recently extended through September 2009, pursuant to a renewal provision in the agreement.

Microsoft has been a major CIT customer since July 2006, when CIT began financing deals for Microsoft products sold in France and Switzerland. Last year, their relationship was expanded to include work with Microsoft customers in Germany, Italy, South Korea, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

Please take note of Prieur's link and analysis, specifically the first chart on bonds. Notice how the top in bond yields in the early 1980's coincided with the start of the stock bull market. Falling yields is bullish for stocks. Where are we now in that relationship?

Now, simply look at where yields are at today. I asked the other day, how much risk does a trader have in shorting bond rallies in the coming days/weeks compared to the possible reward in catching a long term trend?

The current inflationary conditions will eventually lead to the bond top (bond yield bottom) and the start of the ToG (Trade of the Generation).

Btw, also note that the gold bull of the 1970's ended when bond yields topped (coinciding with the start of the 20 year stock bull market) - we are nowhere near that today.

FXP for a trade at 91.07...

Story today in the SF Chron about Oracle CEO, Larry Ellison, a billionaire, getting a multi-million dollar tax break from the City of San Mateo.

It has always puzzled me that Oracle, run by someone like Ellison, who by any definition is a perfect **%%##, gets a free ride in the media, while arch rival Microsoft is condemned at every opportunity.

Good moring!

Re Gold, I see a more and more likely bear flag forming.

This would imply that the current respite in the Gold correction is fainting, and the next move down becomes more likely.

Damage in oscilators exists, and blackboxes respond to that.

The Gold bull is by no means dead, at all. But we may see 50% or even 61,8% retracemrnt of the entire swing from Aug 16th in a near future.

As always, Bill's intuition appears to be right on the money.

850 may be a dream come true for bulls looking to add.

Cheers!

SMN- back in at 38.53...

Buy 100 Shares of FXP
Order Number:C28BFMPJ Details Filled at $91.21

ESLR- vinod, taking another shot at 9.29...

LOL @ Lehman Upgrade. Down about 50 cents. The HB&B doesn't even believe their own upgrades.

C upgrading LEH? A drowning man throwing a line to a drowning man? And if their analysis is so darned good, how did they get in their current pickle?

craig- are you signed in to skype?

2nd ave, thanks for the Band liink but let me say that it's highly unusual to predict a pattern that has yet to even form! I mean a HnS pattern isn't a HnS until it is and it isn't at this point.

The options activity in LEH speaks for itself.

Nex..

Could you add me to skype..

geck- i have a hard time myself with his scenario, but it helps to know what's out there...if the DJIA were to drop to 10,000 by this summer on full revelation/unwinding of assets/liabilities in the financial sector, then i would have no problem with a massive rally by december...

Today...

Seems to me They are shaking the weak hands out..

To run this sucker up?...Could be wrong, just have that feeling that they are shaking hard and will run it up this afternoon...

2nd, No, can't get Skype.

bg- http://nexalogic.com/skype.html

click on the above, select Option 2, download the software, and sign in to bill's chat...

craig- don't get it...if you have internet access, then you have access to skype, right...

2nd..I have skype, but I have to wait for Nex to add me,

Unless you know the trick to add yourself to the chat...

BG, try leaving the chat and signing off of skype and the log back in and join the chat. some times that works for me.

2nd

will wait untill monday for ESLR
My feeling is market going to closed down at end of the day

vinod- OK...exiting at 9.42...

vinod- you could be right about today's close...if i were in the business, with consumer sentiment as bad as it is, record redemptions, and between watching colleagues get axed and worrying about my own job-> may in fact see apathy into this EOQ and a willingness to stay out of the way...

..not to mention the fact that the EOQ trade tends to get a little crowded...

any caraistas trading in shanghai-> are short transactions allowed, and do they follow essentially the same regulations in place in the US?

is Fed Beige Book due out today at 2:00?

Dave

DaveB,

My calender says April 16.

Regards

If you have broadband internet you can get skype.... if you live in the sticks and have dialup or satellite, you can't get skype.

Thanks BullHunter!

Dave

Actually, even in the country you can get faster internet and use skype. Use celluar internet. Verizon or Sprint. At home I have a Verizon internet card that is hooked to a marine band amplifier that is hooked to a 3 foot tall trucker antenna attatched to the gutters. Full 4 bars of signal 24/7. I get about a 800k connection with it.

$60 a month for unlimited use. Amplifier cost me about $200 and I can't remember how much the trucker antenna was. I bought the Verizon card/account straight from verizon and the rest of the equipment I got here: http://www.maximumsignal.net/

volume is very low
# of 52 week High/Low is bad

John Olagues was a CBOE options trader for 20 years and now writes the Truth in Options Newsletter. He says the trading in Bear Stearns options March 10th to 14th is the worst case of insider trading in history.

Bottom fishing BMD.

moab - great article on BSC

Dave

BMD- spring/summer construction season about to begin, higher oil prices, sitting on tons of valuable assets...but i have to say, only reason i'm going back in is it's been off my radar screen for so long, down looks like up (sentiment trade)...

Craig , you can use Skype with a dial-up connection just in case anyone was wondering,this is what Skype says....

'I am connected to the internet with a dial-up modem. Can I use Skype?
You can use Skype when you are connected with a 33.6 Kbps modem or faster. However, when you are using a modem for other types of internet traffic, such as web surfing, file sharing or email you may experience disruptions in the voice communication.'

Cheers John

Gold and Silver forming a W bottom?
Local minimum bis?

Market needs GPS
don't know where to go
just seating there

vinod - consolidation at/near the lows often means a break down, whereas consolidtion at/near highs often means break up

Dave

I am as bearish as anyone fundamentally but the 60 minute S&P chart looks bullish to me:

http://tinyurl.com/34jfqs

It is testing 1320 support now and if it holds there might be more upside. Big Beta is acting very well, which Bill indicates is a weathervane. I will be playing the upside with QLD.

I am concerned about the lack of volume though.

Demand for US Treasurys showing signs of buckling:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23835257

exiting FXP and SMN...

Good article on silver...

"Every short position has to be covered. The silver commercials at times are net short an entire year of silver mine production. The situation for gold is much less severe. If any COMEX market has a chance of blowing up, silver is it."

http://tinyurl.com/yq9cgv

Thank you for all the help guys. With my dialup I won't be able to rub my stomach and pat my head at the same time!

I'm looking into Zenob's idea. What was your signal before the antenna and amplifier? I use Verizon as it's all that's available, but there are some weird territorial issues with providers.
I've seen male dogs that are more reasonable about territory....

http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/
See Jeff Matthews's blog from yesterday titled "The Most Important Article You Probably Didn’t Read This Week". This actually may be a good time to get into FXP. No position (yet).

Before I got the amp and antenna I had 1 bar that cut in and out on me. After getting the amp and antenna I get 4 bars steady. It might drop to 3 in bad weather. :-)

4 is as high as it goes.

RDR I read that article earlier, and agree that, once FXP gets down to the bottom of its channel again, it'll likely be a great play long.

Dave

moab - big beta is acting relatively well today, yet yesterday was relatively very weak, so I'd expect it to be relatively stronger today. NDX appears to be setting up for a "tails up" candle today (weakness) and looks to me to be headed to 1750-ish (gap from march 20).

Dave

Dave, it certainly is there, just under the 50 day MA. But looking at the 2 past dips, there is usually a second day at the same level before going higher. So I will likely wait until Monday.

2nd,

I am trying to get inot chat on Skype? How do I log into Bill's Chat

ALOHA !!

Rafish ... Yep, it seems that Australia always follows the USA and it never seems to work out in the end. You guys went with us to Vietnam and Iraq and you followed us into the derivatives and McMansions of overpriced real estate and the debt that goes with it. If it were not for Chindia buying up all your minerals it'd be even worse! My five week visit to OZ in January this year showed me inflation is alive and well down under! I have to say that at least your government is admitting it and when I was there the big banks like ANZ and CommonWealth were raising rates on their own and not even following the ARB! People complained a lot about that, but the banks did it anyway ... Man, everything was so expensive compared to the USA even! I knew gasoline would be more than we pay here in the USA but I never figured real estate to be at the extreme levels they are now! Just a vacant lot about a 1/2 acre size was $2mil in Nedlands, my old neighborhood in Perth when I lived there in the 1970s. Amazing! Seems a lot of foreign investors are moving in certain well-heeled areas! Australia is a very resource rich country so I believe you guys will fare well in the long run. The other advantage you have over America is that you only have 24million people compared to our 304 million! In terms of total debt we are way ahead! YAH FOR US!!!! WE'RE WINNING !!!! HA!!!!

Tell Kev, to quit following us mate!

Dave

"FXP gets down to the bottom of its channel"

May I ask where you see bottom?

Thanks!

QT, I track the channel as the trend up line from Dec 6 through Feb 27, so that puts it at around 88-ish now. So it's close enough to start watching for other things like RSI, candle formations etc.

Actually, as I look at it, it may be good for a try depending on today's close. That said, we've got the eom and eoq on Monday so who knows...

I may give it a go in small size...but don't feel like I have to push it right now either - waiting for obvious trades to come - those that don't make me feel queasy

Dave

scratchy- if logging off and logging back in doesn't work, suggest you ping Nexalogic-> since you were able to chat with me, you should be able to reach him also, and he will undoubtedly be able to offer better instructions...

DaveB

Thanks alot for your insight. Very helpful!

another foray into FXP...

QT - do you "see" the trend up line I mentioned on FXP? THat's the important thing for you.

Dave

DaveB: If you are queasy, I suggest having some Gaviscon at hand. Best one of the lot for me anyway. I never needed it until this year. I can run on coffee and Gaviscon all the way to the close. hehe

Think I will bite off some FXP and am looking to re-enter a position in SLV.

Great update at Resourceful Bear:

http://tinyurl.com/2mhfry

Aurator,

Seems more like a bearish flag, I am afraid.

No rush to buy.

Cheers!

Back in the saddle . . . returned from MN and had internet problems . . burnt out modem . . . corrected late Wed. Now in Michigan on a laptop for the weekend. Low volume week.

Re T-O-G Remembering 1980-1981 time period when mortgage rate went to 18% and a little higher. Historically, 2 year bond most reactive and volatile to changing rates. As part of T-O-G, have looked at 30 & 20 yr, but wondering about possible % gains of other durations including the 10. Fed wants to keep the short term very low to let banks (off the hook) make money. Muni bonds showing increase in interest pay rates at longer terms (a tell?), but perhaps part of the monoline (insurance) concern. Interested in other viewpoints.

Saw some weekend posts about K-1 forms and IRAs. I'm not an accountant, but FWIW Schwab brokerage files required IRS forms for IRAs if you send them the K-1; complimentary, no charge. They provide you a copy after submission for your records.

ALOHA !!

I have been off on biz and IT stuff!! Did I miss anything? Are we still in Iraq? Did we hit the bottom? Did I miss the bottom? Damn ... don't tell me I missed the damn bottom? NAH .. really? HA!!

CONTINUUM-CNU/CUUEF
I bought 80,000 shares of CNU today. Awhile back around PDAC time I posted this info on CNU.

READ ON:
ALoHa GuYs !!

As I said I would do I called and talked to Warren McIntyre directly who is the Corp Sec. He gave me quite an earfull! You may know the President of CNU Bill since his brother James Hutton bought 10% of QTrade. The President of CNU is Greig Hutton.

The research I did prior to calling made it seem CNU was a MONSTER ruining the entire country of Mexico. There is also this rumor about their Manager Raul Diaz stealing the company and screwing management ... WRONG! What happened was CNU got so sick of dealing with the locals of Natvidad at Col Altan and the one lawyer there that they decided a Mexican National would stand a better chance to get at the resources of Natvidad. The other story underneath that is the former Pres. Dick Lawrence messed up at Natividad and it turns out there is less there than he thought. Dick Lawrence is gone from CNU and is banned from their offices.

There was an article that ran in the Dominion, a Canadian newsletter, that spread rumors of how bad CNU was to the locals. The truth is that CNU is still paying the local government their funding agreement until Raul Diaz takes over 100%. CNU is under no obligation to keep paying but wants to keep the good faith going so they can get out and Raul can pay CNU shares in the new company. The new company is a private company teamed up with Penoles. According to Warren he believes the new venture will be begging CNU to come back ... Time will tell ... but as far as CNU is concerned they are done with Natividad. CNU share price was sabotaged by the Dominion Newsletter and some shorts(Lawrence? He would not say)not Natividad and their former manager.

I also addressed the issue about AEM and Sprott not selling ... He said both are 100% behind CNU and understand the situation. He said if they were not you'd see them selling. I then asked why they are not buying at these low prices and he informed me that if Sprott bought any more they would trigger a 20% requirement to intitiate a takeover. Sprott now holds 19% and AEM over 15%.

It is as I said ... overblown. The share price seems to have a floor now. Only idiots are selling at these price levels. Warren informs me that in six months the company and the share price will be 100% reversed. They are onto their other 100% owned properties. At San Jose they are sitting on 170mil ounces of Ag alone. They are now drilling more than at any time in their history. Mainly at San Jose and Tres Hermanos. In fact all the insiders, including the CFO, are buyers right now! END

There was more to the story but that is the gist. If you look at the properties CNU holds they are strewn with past producing mines.

The price for CNU is sitting on 5 year lows at $0.14. I believe that is in the accumulation zone if you want to throw in with them. Its risky but then that how things are!

This was posted on Bill Cara back on October 27, 2007 by Bill Cara, which ties to CNU management. Of course this is not an endorsement of CNU by Bill Cara just a "small world" coincidence. Seems the Hutton brothers have an ever expanding PEOPLE TREE !!!

READ ON:
I did meet one new company, Terra Ventures (TSX.V: TAS), a North America uranium play. Greig Hutton is the CEO and his well-known financier brother James Hutton (CEO, Canada Dominion Resources Group, which has completed close to $1 billion in flow-through exploration financing) is a director. Looks interesting. I will look at their web site (http://terrauranium.com).

DaveB

Yes. It was very clear to me. Good call!

QT - please note that I only trade ProFunds, so Im only doing eod trades. My trading timeframe may be 1-2 days or a week, never shorter.

Dave

ALOHA !!

CNU UPDATE
It seems the manager(Mexican National)who took over Natividad has thrown in the towel as well! Read the last news release on CNU website. If Raul Diaz and Penoles along with the Mexican government cannot satisfy the locals then who can? Abject poverty has prevailed!

I wonder if Raul will want his old job back at CNU? I was told that CNU would never go back to Navitadad even if the locals begged them!

Moving on ...

Short term vs Long term rates: Isn't that partly how banks got in trouble... borrowing short term and lending long term? Even to cover a car loan, the Fed will have to keep rates down for 5 years. With the potential for rates to explode once inflation is acknowledged, how can banks get any relief? It seems to me once the fed loses control of rates the banks would be smoking burned toast.

ALOHA !!

Today I bought the following junior resource companies:

GIX-10k shres
ECU-10k shares
PMV-40k shares
CNU-80k shares

FXP - the more I look, the more I like the setup here - looks eerily similar to Feb 4. Has that same candle pattern going on, with similar rsi level.

Dave

Kaimu: What is PMV and do you have an OTC symbol?

DaveB

FXP to take off or fall to the bottom of the channel?

Out of SKF $117 (cost of $110)

Underwater in FXP($95), time to double down?

QT,
IF it were to act like it did after Feb 4,
THEN it would reverse and move higher.

The IF is the real question. So if I were to enter that trade on the Feb 4 lookalike premise, then I'd want to see it reverse and head higher on Monday. If it didn't then I'd exit the trade on Monday - no matter what.

Another premise is the approaching trendline, which we talked about earlier. I'd likely give that trade a bit more play, but if both FXP and FXI broke and closed outside their respect trendlines, then I'd have to exit taht trade also. These (FXP & FXI) are really volatile, so I don't dare give them room to hurt me badly.

Dave

PPT indicator entered the neutral zone yesterday (without requisite subspace message to SFC HQ).

Lets see if they take a breather before engineering the sale of LEH over the weekend.

can anyone tell me what is happening to yamana.. do you think it is a buy at this price? thank you.

DaveB

Thank you for the explanation. I have learned a great deal from you just in the past 20 mins. :-)

ALOHA !!

PMI GOLD-PMV/PMVGF
I recommend buying the TSXV symbol, since it trades better volume and is denominated in Canadian Dollars not US Pesos!

PMV is now waiting for the Golder feasability report due out first week in April. Then financing $60mil and they're officially in the GOLD BIZ!

This was the company I featured along with Golder Assoc in my MICRO MINING article from Dec 2007.

I am in talks with CEO of PMI GOLD and the Ag Minister of Ghana regarding the opportunity to start an orchid nursery there as part of the PMI GOLD Community Program, whereby orchids would be shipped to the Amsterdam flower market. I am excited about that possibility of spreading the Aloha to Ghana! Some 85% of Ghanaians are farmers and would take well to the tropical orchids. Then of course I would require a large flask stock from the University Of Hawaii to start the program. Lots of ifs ...

I am just amazed that my two biggest passions ... "mining" and "orchids" have come together as one! Who would have thought orchids could exist along with a gold mine?

I own 740k shares of PMV.

In at FXP at 92.82

What is wrong with the volume of SKF today, it is about average

Kaimu: Thank for the PMV update. I tried to get a bit of CUUEF and got filled at 0.1425. Have to use us markets in this acct.

QT, so glad that I cna be of value. It's so important to learn that for every trade you should document the premise, and then set it up as a conditional ie:

IF x
THEN y
ELSE z

for me "z" is usually "exit the trade"

This is the way that I stay out of those situations when I am underwater and wondering what to do. I know what I'll do before the bad things happen (and they will).

Dave

I had problems with Internet Explorer and skype, switched to firefox

DaveB
I'll start today. Learning the "IF" and "Then" will be the hardest part of all of this.

Kaimu, your recent buys may turn out to be impeccable trades as Jim Sinclair this afternoon called for the juniors to break-out very soon...

"The action in gold, although scary to those that are new, is down right PERFECT for a next assault and penetration of $1024. The rub of all this is this reaction normal to wild markets, like gold presented this and last week, is the greatest and probably last chance for the short investors in the juniors to cover profitably. Some trees will grow to the sky, but if these guys think they can profit forever they are totally wrong. Their Cinderella Market will become a rotten pumpkin very soon. No prince will fit those fat feet and heads into a size 3 crystal boot."

exiting FXP...

QT - LOL - interesting paradox here:

What appears to be the hardest "learning the IF and THEN" isn't -

The hardest part is acting on the "ELSE" ie exiting the trade when it doesn't meet the original premise. If you can simply master acting on the "ELSE", then you'll be light years ahead of 99% of people who trade/invest.

The IF and THEN are simply a matter of using a straightedge to draw simple trendlines and watching RSI. Much more than that, and it's too complex. (For me anyway)

Dave

Looks like an exponentially accelerating sell off in the Dow into the close. That ought to spook the Asian markets. (If it happens, Then they will be spooked.) hehe

Anyone else eyeing the looming death-cross in XOM? 200 Day MA = $87.34, 100 Day MA = $87.47, 50 DMA = $85.5.

100 DMA average is trending down towards 200 DMA. Share price is currently sitting on the 50 DMA at $85.50 as I write this. One fast break lower and who knows?

I have been a bit early on this trade but I am confident that this is a rare technical setup that requires a stock to consolidate. Also, April is "shoulder" season for oil and I expect prices to soften for awhile and XOM with it.

Holding XOM Apr 85 puts and holding DUG.

YHOO is making a move in the last few mins.
MSFT upping the bid this weekend?

just found a March 25, 2008 exerpt from
Richard Russell's letters,
insightful as always, he suggests holding
1/3 of your total wealth in gold. interesting.

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

1320 is support. Exponential selloff is possible but I imagine there will be some buying at 1320.

Maromatics, can you please give us some more insights into why you think gold might be due for another leg down? If everyone believes we are still in a gold bull market, why would simple profit taking bring it down so low? Or do you think some fundamental problems have appeared in the short-term?

Do you think all other commodities will be dragged down together with gold? Do you think the increased commodity margins will have only a one day sell-off effect that we are seeing today, or can they lead to longer term sell-off? If someone else can give his/her opinion on the effect of margin increases on commodities next week, I would also appreciate it.

Thanks!

DavidV

Latest shock story in the US from Uk news paper telegraph.co.uk ,not for children or the squeamish.
http://tinyurl.com/3dsfr9

I can't find a dang thing to buy for longer term holdings. I have dipped into XLP, MCD, WMT and GE lateley but everything appears stuck in neutral and nothing hi quality is showing a buy on my oscillators. Mentioning MCD, I do like the setup in this stock as it is in a ascending triangle formation. It looks like a low risk entry is setting up for longer term holders as you could use the 50 and 200 dma as support or the trendline.

DYODD.

Bullhunter, check out KYE, Ex date coming up 4/1, pay out 4/11, can slip in and out for a quick 8% dividend. Check it out.

JogyP,

Could be. Might just be end of quarter window dressing from the mutual funds, but only insiders know.

Regards

Commodities are the latest playground for leveraged hedge funds who just pile on at the first sign of momentum. When margin requirements go up some have to sell and that triggers others to sell as well. In the case of gold, it has been knocked down, probably by intervention. The weak momentum players will sell and leave the contracts in stronger hands for the next upleg. Corrections are good things. They cleanse out the market to let it move strongly higher. When there are no corrections, you have a bubble that is unstable and unsustainable.

Bill is looking for margin requirements to be raised to knock down PM's further. This may yet happen soon.

The bull market in PM's is by no means over, its just catching it's breath.

Where did you find that one, ShredHulk? Did you buy some?

DaveB

True, but to get to "Else" you have to go through "If" & "Then" :-)

Want to thank you again for the FPX info. Because of it I booked profits when it was in the 93+ area. Normally I would of held over the weekend. But because of your possible bottom channel post, I sold. You made my weekend DaveB.
Thanks!

Humor for the PM:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Financial-data processing company Fidelity National Information Services Inc. said new government regulations that prohibit lenders from using in-house appraisals when assessing loan values could substantially harm its business.

The Jacksonville, Fla.-based company said in a filing made on Thursday with the Securities and Exchange Commission that increasing government scrutiny into the mortgage business "could have adverse consequences that could affect our business." ...

testing the intraday low...

1320 broke - this could certainly accelerate selling - watching

Dave

Wow! What a gap down! 1320 gone.

DJIA - pretty good bet it finishes back under the 50 dma. Back into the bear we go.

ESLR- back in at 9.06...

closing remainder of shorts (DUG/QID) into strength...holding only ESLR into the weekend...

XHB coming off triple top. Taken behind the woodshed:

http://tinyurl.com/yq6ygd

closing fxp
still has SRS

looks like we get another ugly close today - like yesterday

Dave

keeping my 2x ndx short over the weekend, also added FXP for weekend hold

Dave

Dave- no crystal ball...just be aware of the possibility of a bear trap going into EOQ...good luck..

1000 ESLR at 9.05

2nd - I know - that's the one caution I have on these positions.

If I'm wrong, you know that I'll exit Monday (not until eod though...)

Dave

appears lots of FXP'ers all exiting in the last few mins - gives me a better entry...

Dave

Doubled down on FXP, avg price $94...

Have a good weekend!

Holding DUG

breadth ended up stinky too; 3 to 1 down volume on NYSE & Nasdaq

Dave

In the light of negative developments in the financial services sector, I thought that this document is very interesting to look at: http://tinyurl.com/29rmey This is the latest available quarterly report on derivative activities by US banks which was prepared by the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Quite a few of the reported numbers and trends are clearly amarming. My more emotional summary of some of the report's stats is here in this post: http://tinyurl.com/3xnozr

Meredith Whitney released more negative reports on the Financials. She was dead-on last time about C. Traders heeding the warning and selling before she's proven right again. Entire market can't advance with weakening financials. -Paraphrased from Blookberg.

Enjoy the weekend!

Dave/b0ss- OK...here's to a negative open/close on Monday...

Thanks, john uk, for the link. Altho this is a stock blog, it does tie in well with recent posts about the tragedy of ex-Gov. Spitzer, former Pres. Clinton, and so many of the rich and powerful who can't keep their zippers up. My wife serves to remind me that we are indeed the weaker sex in this regard. And as a retired emergency dept. physician, I will never forget a case from a kitchen at our local Big Ten University in the middle of the night regarding a middle-aged janitor and a large mixer. Enough said.

2nd - thanks - I'll certainly appreciate it! If there's anything you can do to help arrange it - I'd be in your debt (I'll give ya some CDO's & stuff to cover the debt).

Dave

phew!!!

just put in for a bit of the canadian financials
bear (HFD) 10 minutes before the close. nice pop.

a gap down on monday morning for the financials may start the next panic.

An important quote from gold trader Dan's gold chart today on jsmineset.com:

"Folks - I will say it again - there is no use trying to even attempt to explain the madness that the commodity markets have become - the hedge funds and the index funds have completely destroyed any bit of rationality that these markets might once have had. These are the clumsiest, most inept and dumb traders that any generation has ever witnessed. They either dump everything at the same time or load up on everything at the same time... [these markets] have lost their primary purpose and have become nothing but playgrounds for the hedge funds to run their casino operations...these markets are extremely dangerous and can clean you out in a heartbeat."

--end quote

The gold price will violently come to us as these moron's run for the door.

Treasury bill rates seem to have stabilized, leaving room for a 100 basis point cut:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

Eurozone rates show no change whatsoever:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

As somebody had noted a while back attempting to purchase 90-day Canadian T-bills through TD Waterhouse, they were offering zero interest rates. The offical rates show a meaningful decline:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/tbill.html

FWIW, EOQ dressing can include hedge funds adding to short positions (market down) to impress clients.

Seamus, that likely explains a lot: I've been noticing that eom and eoq market lift isn't nearly as significant over the past 2 years as it had been previously (20 years.) I track & study this stuff routinely, but couldn't "explain" the change.

Dave

One more things - it appears Jim Sinclair is right in saying that the volatility in gold will explode going forward. There will be $100 swings in a day.

RDR Yes you are right ,my link was probably not appropriate on here ,apologies if anyone offended.
John

Dr. Cosa -

With all due respect to Russell's hard-earned wisdom, I fear his style has gone more lyrical with age. A year or so after pronouncing a miraculous global Bull market with no end in sight, his oracle returns a message of U.S. excessive indebtedness and wasteful military spending and ultimate dollar doom. For the conditions underlying his diagnosis, not much changed since last year. I would have been impressed to hear him foretell the dollar collapse last March. Because no global bull can flourish in a world where the predominant reserve currency is under attack and possibly to be abandoned as such.

As for the Meredith W. fans. Maybe I got my suspicions too high for Wall Street resident analysts after their late 90s 'rockstarization'. But if you work on WS for a WS-anchored firm, you must pursue a line of business that ultimately benefit a majority on WS. I only met the rare birds (truly independent and conflict-free analysts) outside of the NY microcosm. She got a calling card out of her Citi-smaller-dividend call last Fall. Let's see if she can keep her views as fresh as FETv made them to be (come on, given the magnitude of losses, dividend cuts are likely and even desirable for most, if not all, banks in ALL financial crises). For me, her real test will be to call the turn to Bull in a timely manner (i.e. before the consensus is overwhelming).

JML

Re: Kaimu's post 1:44 PM

"Canada Dominion Resources Group, which has completed close to $1 billion in flow-through exploration financing"

I would be interested in taking advantage of flo-throughs in Canadian junior exploration companies, but I'm perplexed about how to acquire them. Would they typically be available only via full-brokerage services, or would an individual purchase directly from the exploration company ... ?

Any experience / advice on flow-throughs welcome.

Sharing an email exerpt from a discussion today, regarding dividend captures. Please comment if you disagree with my ideas, so I can learn.

I sent: "The dividend capture is risky unless in an IRA. The hope is the share price does not
fully dilute after the dividend is paid. If the payout is textbook, the share price
falls by the exact amount of the dividend, and you gain nothing but a potential tax liability.

The purchase of the shares is in after tax dollars unless in an IRA. The dividend
is taxable. So in the pre-tax IRA the risk is reduced in the event the stock does fully dilute. Same would apply in the Roth IRA as nothing is taxed. BUT:

In a taxable account, the bet is for minimal dilution (drop) of share price and getting
in and out basically flat less commissions. The dividend is taxed at the dividend rate.

Might be worth doing for a quarterly dividend. However funds that make annual
distributions seem to fall close to the ideal dilution right after the payment because the
payout is so large. Monthly dividends are not large enough to capture unless you use a
large block of cash, probably $25K or more."

kaimu,

Appreciate your updates on CNU and transactions on those 4 companies.

re dividend capture- seems like i was able to play a variation of that game with fidelity's gnma fund a few years ago, where i swept funds into the fund a day or two before the monthly dividends were paid out, collected the entire dividend, then swept funds back out into the MMF...won't work now, as you will find you are entitled only to a pro-rated share of the dividend...i may be wrong, but any strategy that works will stop working as soon as it catches on-> if the strategy works, why isn't everyone doing it?

FRG announces results. Here is a snippet not to be used without seeing the document in its entirety.

Year Ended December 31


2007
2006

Earnings for year
$20,374,741
$15,011,639

Basic and diluted earnings per share
$0.29; $0.28
$0.27; $0.25

Cash invested in mineral properties
$8,309,527
$6,298,162

Cash generated by financing activities
$68,909,573
$48,003,046

Cash and cash equivalents
$99,039,334
$40,391,913

Marketable securities (at cost) (1)
--
$3,536,397

Working capital
$96,903,057
$43,338,290

Investment in Aurora (2)
$76,696,684
$37,508,155

Investment in Turkish Properties (3)
$12,957,378
--

Total assets
$426,437,437
$102,311,386

Shareholders’ equity
$366,849,777
$99,364,065

This should stir things up…it seems these were peddled to “high net worth individuals” as a cash alternative.

tinyurl.com/3bxgej

UBS Lowers Price of Security Seen as 'Cash'
Some Face Paper Losses
Of More Than 20%
On Auction-Rate Bonds

NYT: Treasury’s Plan Would Give Fed Wide New Power

WASHINGTON — The Treasury Department will propose on Monday that Congress give the Federal Reserve broad new authority to oversee financial market stability, in effect allowing it to send SWAT teams into any corner of the industry or any institution that might pose a risk to the overall system.

Some of the proposals could actually reduce the power of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is charged with maintaining orderly stock and bond markets and protecting investors. The proposal would merge the S.E.C. with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates exchange-traded futures for oil, grains, currencies and the like.

This proposal would consolidate a large number of regulators into roughly three big new agencies

http://tinyurl.com/yql4kn

How will a SWAT team raid on a bank provide stability in the markets? One raid and *kapoof* there goeth confidence off the window ledge.

They just gave Paulson & Co. the power of God.

Remember this page?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

US Banks' (non-borrowed) reserves are now more in the negative, -61.788 Billion, then they have ever been in the positive (43 Billion)

That negative figure is down from -17.174 Billion two weeks ago, which is about what it was throughout February.

To refresh for those who were not following this a few months ago, the non-borrowed reserves are what banks have in cash that is their "own" reserves from deposits etc, rather than borrowed money (mainly from the Fed now). In other words, the banks are way underwater in terms of reserves (at least the banks combined as a group, if not all the banks) and are living on credit all of a sudden, for the first time since these records are published, which is 1959 (for these historical records, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/hist/h3hist1.txt ).

Maybe Sinclair is right that this will go the way of Weimar with hyperinflation from government printing. How else, if the Fed and government persist in bailing out banks, rather than let the credit ring collapse via a Bear Sterns-type bankruptcy? What are other choices? Got PM?

Re: NYT: Treasury’s Plan Would Give Fed Wide New Power

It sounds like the final proceeding in America's divorce from its Constitution. Next step, total control of financial instruments of power--facism. The very beast the "greatest generation" supposedly vanquished. How utterly stupid we have become!

That should be "fascism", not "facism".

How far are we along the path to fascism?

http://tinyurl.com/2t63h

ALOHA !!

It seems absurd but with the Treasury's New Plan we Americans just let our government nationalize banking via the FED(a group of private banks)... The FED already has control of printing money, so now they have control over the very markets this printed money is being pumped into! Add in Bush's Stimulus Package and we are also moving towards monetizing consumers! What else can you do when your economy is based on debt and consumers?

This takes the founder of the current banking empire, MAYER AMSCHEL BAUER ROTHSCHILD'S strategy to all new levels. The following was written over 235 years ago before the USA was a free Nation, liberated from the King Of England. Rothschild created the blueprint for the likes of Goldman Sachs. If you want to look up the phrase "inside trading" then go to the dictionary and you'll find the logo of Goldman Sachs! How many times do we allow our elected leaders to tear up whole sections of the US Constitution until we realize there is no Constituion any more?

“Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws." -- Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

SEIG HEIL and which way to the Russian front?

ALOHA !!

There is much talk about silver supply shortages either at the COMEX or at your local coin dealers shop. I cannot say for sure where the supply has gone to or whether this a temporary shortage awaiting relief from China(major silver smelter). First supply issues with silver and then gold.

Once Joe SixPack gets an inkling that his paper IOUs in his wallet are useless then there will be a mad scramble for "real money" insurance. That would be gold and silver. Silver is much more affordable per ounce than gold so any one with common sense would seek refuge from a corrupt monetary system via silver first due to affordability. Just ask yourself how many of your friends could afford an ounce of gold right now versus an ounce of silver? Many of us are still alive who recall the days when a pure silver dollar or dime was in circulation and was readily accepted as money at any store in the country. Inflation has reduced those pure coins to practically plastic. Right now they are minting zinc coins. What's next plastic?

The Chinese have known this for centuries and their monetary system was based on silver over the centuries. Silver is more plentiful than gold so if you have billions of citizens your best bet is to use silver as money rather than gold. The Chinese hold most of the World's silver and they are the leaders in silver smelting. Is it any coincidence they are also at the top of the heap of BRIC industrialization?

China's military build up and its military alliance with its other Communist neighbor, Russia, is not just an accident. They are setting the stage for a complete shutdown of any US Military adventurism into their "space"! Uncle Sam will not be able tio dictate foreign policy any more. One of the key reasons the US Dollar is a WOrld Reserve Currency came out of the belief that the US Military was supreme and it was after WW2, but after Korea, then Vietnam and now Iraq the supremecy is wearing thin andwith US Banks failing that dependable Reserve Currency status is going to vanish and with it our ability to sell our debt! Do not forget who owns our debt and who is our largest creditor on trade. Washington DC will get notice from the Chinese that the US Military and the US Dollar are one in the same in their eyes.

Yet I have been saying for many months now that supply will be the death of GLD and SLV. If they have no supply available what good are they? What is GLD and SLV other than "pooled accounts" that JP MORGAN owns not you? You get the paper and JP MORGAN gets the gold. As Rodney Dangerfield used to say ... "Divorce is like a gold mine! She gets the gold and I get the shaft!" Well if you hold GLD and SLV you get the shaft! The Blanchard Coin settlement clearly shows that JP MORGAN is an agent for the US Federal Reserve via the US Treasury. The latest Bear Stearns debacle shows that as well!So you can't sue these guys and Bush has already signed the EO(Executive Order)that allows these big banks to escape from discovery and reporting rules on the grounds of "National Security" issues! That's one get out of jail free card! The other is "force majeure" which entitles the get out of jail free card holder to hand you a cash settlement for a dime on the dollar worth of IOUs!

The game is rigged. The only thing they cannot rig is a simple barbaric relic that has existed for thousands of years ... a gold or silver coin! All their collective super computer complicated derivatives and futures markets cannot compete with the simplicity of a time tested British Sovereign! Sovereigns have been coined since 1534. How long have derivatives been around ... since 1980?

ALOHA !!

This brings me to why I am holding juniors explorers(near production) and producers. When "supply" becomes KING and GLD and SLV fail then the companies with the "real wealth" will explode onto the radar screen of hedge funds and investors. It will be dotcom days all over again only this time the dotcoms will have "real wealth" and value not like PETCO or WEBVAN!

If you were trading junior explorers in 2003 and 2004(prior to GLD and SLV)then you got a taste of that. I did and that was when I was making 3400% and 6500% returns!

Jim Sinclair seems to believe it will be a POG above $1024USD that will trigger the rush to juniors and producers, but I believe it will be the loss of supply to GLD and SLV that will trigger a major explosion into the gold and silver mining sector.

Of course it goes without saying that Bill Cara is all over the mining sector as well ...

Time will tell in terms of pathways and logisitics, but that's how I see it ...

ALOHA !!

Some of you may have noticed a number or articles recently that are highly critical of the PERTH MINT. Now that lack supply is a topical issue bullion vaults, like the PERTH MINT, are being scrutinized. I am currently writing an article that addresses these issues and I am in direct contact with the manager of the PERTH MINT, Mr. Moffat and the CFO MR. Hayes. I am also directly consulting with one of the largest US reps for the PERTH MINT at Peter Schiff's company Euro Pacific.

As you know I have actually been to the PERTH MINT on three seperate times in Jan 2008 when I was in Perth, Western Australia. I have seen their operations from the inside out.

I will be offering an opposing view to many established gurus of the gold community(James Turk, Jason Hommel, Ted Butler and to some degree Jim Sinclair)with regard to certain issues surrounding risk. We all agree on some of the basics but they, I believe, have some flaws in assertaining risk involving bullion vaults, specifically, the PERTH MINT.

I hate to sound like Bill O'Reilley but I am planning to be "fair and balanced" with NO SPIN! I even will be critical of the PERTH MINT from a historical/PR and reporting perspective.

I expect to finish the article next week sometime. We'll see just how open the gold community is to opposing views. Perhaps after this I will be banned! HA!!! Oh well ... such is life! There's worse things ... HA!!!

The Paulson Plan (PP).....

Most Americans will sleepwalk right through it.

I can't even think of anyone to tell.

The End is Near.

Gee Kaimu, getting banned from the gold community, you will have no friends left. Just kidding. Of the four gold bugs you mentioned, all of whom I respect, only Sinclair is not selling product. Like him or not (I do), he offers his great experience for nothing, like Bill here. Hope you all have a great weekend.

Its funny because the militarisation of police was intended to bring in teams against a lone shooter. I guess SWAT teams would be relied on to suppress any protests either from inside or around investment banks.

Warning - Vomitus rating high.

Bear Stearns, even though it is visibly the owner of a large number of short term debt obligations that may have no actual value in today's marketplace, has come out with a new ETF which will hold what - short term debt obligations - NOT an index but the real(?) thing.

The "smile-food press media" bills this product as actively managed which means that Bear Stearns staff (whoever is left) cab take investors money out and put a selection of BS debt oblgations in its place.

[note - hold onto your stomach.] S&P Ratings Service has rated this new ETF with its "highest quality rating":

" ... Against that backdrop, Standard & Poor's Ratings Service says it has given the first actively managed bond exchange-traded fund its highest quality credit ranking. And the fund, which falls somewhere between a money market and short-term bond fund in terms of duration, is also giving the Bear Stearns Current Yield ETF (AMEX: YYY) its lowest volatility grade. ... "
http://tinyurl.com/2eqgkh

Are you kidding me! First, one might take slices of predominantly bad debts and package them into derivatives with various acronyms, then when those acronyms become known for what they really are, then package them as an ETF and sell them as having those very same ratings of quality that the previously highly rated, but now defrocked, acronyms had. All, of course, just my humble opinion of what might be happening here.

Chutzpah!

Kaimu, re your discussion on junior miners, do you think KRY will ever have a future given the Chavez factor?

ALOHA !!

spot ... If you read the special section of the ProShares ETF prospectus there you will find a clause entitled "Illiquid Securities". Each of the many ProShares ETFs has this clause and each is alloted a maximum of 15% of the value of the ETF holdings to be "invested" in "illiquid securities". They even define "illiquid" as having no market!

These guys have been doing this for years only you don't know it because they don't tell you. There is no transparency!

It works until it doesn't and you get no warning except an e-mail that says your account is frozen pending SEC and FED actions.

NT ... I have already posted many times the country risk in Venezuela is too high for me. Underneathe all the Chavez musings and the fading entrepenureal spirit is a country that has been controlled by their military and whatever "generale el jeffe" who is in charge at the time. Today is no different even with elections! Whoever controls the Venezuelan military is the dictator ... oops I mean "Elected President"!

As a kid I lived in Maracaibo, Venezuela and recall vividly Venezuelan Army tanks and jeeps rolling down the streets in front of our house! Most of Chevron's employees lived behind barbed wire machine gun-totting guards in what we used to call "the compound"!

There's a good rule of thumb about "country risk"! If Exxon bails out of a country you're in trouble!

Does that mean there may be a permit some day? Yes, the permit could come and the share price would increase and some will make profits, but unless something fundamentally changes with the Venezuelan government I would be taking my profits elsewhere, because when desperation sets in I guarantee you Chavez or the next Chavez will be on the backs of mining companies and oil companies making their best effort to bleed them dry! Of course if the USA gets desperate enough for oil we can always invade Caracas on some false premise and Exxon will be back and the "all clear" siren will sound!

Everything political and financial in the World seems to be a crap shoot these days!

I'm up late... Thanks Kaimu for your good response! I appreciate your insights and you have a good background to know what's going on inside Venezuela.

More news on UBS..

UBS May Target Capital Increase of SF16 Billion, Sonntag Says

http://tinyurl.com/ywwrw3