Excellent comments Bill. Anyone who calls your view pessimistic today just doesn't get it.

How great would it be if the markets became more free after this crisis is over.

I think it was allowed to get this bad because of how clueless about economics and free markets most of the politicians and general public are.

If people's wallets get hurt enough with this crisis it really could be a wake-up call to force people to stop watching Brittney and Paris and start paying attention to markets.

I hope you feel better soon.
Rob.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

ABX - to Buy @ UBS

Downgrade:

ORCL - to Hold @ Cross Research

Target Price Lowered:

GOOG - $644 to $580 @ Lehman Bros.
PAYX - $43 to $41 @ Lehman Bros.

-------------------------------------------------

Hope you're feeling better soon, Bill. Have a great day, everyone.

grain margin requirements being raised aggressively today, this may be met with selloff in grains and metals.

Ah, maybe that explains the Au,Ag declines. Is higher margin simply a reflection of tighter credit in general or is there more to read into it?

Here is the Bloomberg article regarding Chuck G inquiring about paulson and bernanke. Couldn't find video.

http://tinyurl.com/2cuj8o

We have nowhere reached equilibrium in housing. there are no shortcuts.

"Home inventories have been expanding due to the high number of foreclosures, negotiated 'short sales,' and stretched homeowners looking to sell homes they can no longer afford," Miller said. "While sales are occurring and clearing prices are being reached, the pace of overall housing inventory growth is exceeding absorption at the current time."

http://tinyurl.com/2296by

Bill,
Wishing you a speedy recovery from the dentist and discomfort. At least it isn't the self imposed and avoidable pain of being featured in a skit on the Daily Show.
Imagine being Cramer in a comedy skit on The Daily Show noting how he could work another ten years and still not overcome his Bear Stearns call. Ouch.

Oh, and Thank You Jon Stewart!

This is page for summary of Charles Grassley interview with Bloomberg . Video link to right of text.

http://tinyurl.com/2dqp4p

Cara 100 Update:

BA - Price Target Lowered from $78 to $68 @ Citigroup

There is some useful information on housing in CT's diary today illustrating the pickle the fed is in.

The chart shows prices will need to fall another 10% to start to find buyers.

Now factor in another 10% down for the bank derivatives. The banks are insolvent. (bankrupt).

FXP- planning to re-open a position if it continues to drop on morning strength...

SMN/DUG- will open flat to positive...still prefer the short commodities/bonds posture to being short financials/technology/real estate...

Nourel Roubini

Q. How bad will things get?

A. I would argue this is the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had since the Great Depression. We haven't seen this type of real financial turmoil for the last 70 years. Of course, it's not going to be as bad as the Great Depression. But this isn't your typical run-of-the-mill recession that in the last two episodes lasted only eight months with a minor contraction in output. This is going to last at least 12 months and more likely 18 months, which is something we haven't seen in decades.

Q. So you expect the economy to start turning around in mid-2009?

A. The real economic activity, yes. But some parts of the system are going to be in a severe contraction for much longer; home prices are going to keep falling for another three years, in my view. And the financial mess is going to take years to clean up.

http://tinyurl.com/2s7agx

Jason Hommel's latest entry into the recent reports of physical silver shortages casts a suspicious shadow on Kitco, a major bullion dealer in North America. An except from Jason's article...

"I believe, but cannot prove, that Kitco is short of bullion owed to their own customers in their pool account, and this would explain why they publish the anti-gold articles that they do. If you own precious metal in a pool account or certificate form with anyone, Kitco, Perth, Monex, Goldline, any Major Bank or Brokerage, or anyone else, I think you would be wise to cash out, and get real silver somewhere else, even if you have to pay extra fees to do so.

Here are my five witnesses in my case against the Perth Mint (Kitco is implicated only by association, as they advertise the Perth certificates.)

The testimony of the people below go to show that you cannot trust silver certificates, nor can you trust allocated silver storage, nor can you trust government guarantees. (Trusting government guarantees for bullion is the most absurd thing I can think of, since governments are the ones who are printing money which competes with the demand for silver as money!)"

http://tinyurl.com/2d6z3l

Bill:
You are very insightful in choosing to once again characterize Eliot Spitzer's affair as a tragedy. You are right that it is the public's tragedy as well as his private tragedy.

Some very powerful interests used (maybe misused)overwhelming Federal prosecutorial power to terminate his political career. They hoped to destroy his reputation for honesty not just morality, but he used only his own money. It is not an investigation that was innocently triggered by SARs, but rather was initiated at the request of republican political operative Roger Stone. It is my understanding that such an investigation of a sitting Governor requires the approval of the US Attorney General.

It may be "proof of conncept" that the press is still trying to destroy what is left of Spitzer's reputation by attacking him for having investigated the use (misuse?) of NY State planes and helicopters by NY Senate leader (and Republican political boss) Joe Bruno. Since Bruno stopped such use once it was publicized the investigation was probably reasonable.

Bill, your characterization of this affair as a tragedy rather than a disgrace must be gaining traction. I can think of no other reason for the continuing attack articles against Spitzer in the press.

Spitzer won't be successfully prosecuted, because his privacy was invaded. But the damage is done.

FXP for a trade...

An interesting dialogue with the SEC's Director of Enforcement Linda Thomsen during the 2nd Annual Capital Markets Summit: Strengthening U.S. Capital Markets for All Americans.

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/253

FranSix:
I think Spitzer has not been charged with any crime. You would think that after using so much of the taxpayer's investigatory resources the US Attorney's Office would charge him with some crime. I wonder why they are hesitating.

fxp at 95.70 100

Which online broker has the best chart package? IBKR?

IBKR may have the worst

Re: Spitzer

Yes, it is a tragedy.
lessmore, I too believe it is none other than Roger Stone. Here's a local article that describes his activities:

http://tinyurl.com/yr5o33

Hmmm. A tattoo of Richard M. Nixon is said to rest between Roger Stone's shoulder blades...

IMO, more hope than worry out there-> no reason to be long right now...

When are the shills on CNBC finally going to STOP pumping financial stocks?

It's nauseating. Vote against this nonsense by turning off your tv.

If you look at Spitzer's public admission right away, this says to me he knew the score. There is no way they can charge him with anything any longer, without a constitutional challenge on invasion of privacy and striking down all the laws that permit this kind of unauthorized electronic public surveillance of what is essentially a private matter.

vinod- selling ESLR here (for now) at 9.03-> nice call, and thank you! ;)

ok, if no online brokers have great chart packages, can anyone recommend one? I have heard of tc2000 for $30/month. any others the community recommends? I have been using stockcharts.com

NYUgrad, I use Prophet charts - the free version. Realtime costs $20+ month. I like their charting layouts. www.prophet.net

Dave

Try Ensign Software, easily linked to a number of feeds, including IB.

Ron

Stockcharts is pretty darn good for a membership. You also have the Chart Store, where you can configure CPI-deflated charts over the long term, and go bach through data historically.

Yahoo charts are free and can go back through the long term as well, but with fewer features. Silicon investor got a new charting facility some time ago.

Overall, stockcharts.com is probably the best in terms of annotations you can add, and size of charts, along with comparing prices over several years on several indicators.

nine-to-one down day, anyone?

Lehman is in freefall again, down 6% already.

keeping ESLR untill i double my money

vinod- OK, my man...

Bill, you requested a link to last night's "The Daily Show". Because this week is actually a repeat from last week, I am guessing that this is the link you are looking for. Regardless, it is good satire.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=164178&title=broken-arrow
If not, describe the video you saw further and I might find it.

I'm a long time TC2000 user. Important consideration being that you don't need to be online to use it. But I only have the "gold" package, not the real time version. I use Scottrade Elite for real time - nice charts but they've been a bit unreliable lately - dropping the connection.

thanks for all the suggestions FranSix and DaveB

Lehman now down 9%. You got to bet there are still grave issues there.

sold short DVN at 107.21

QID- out for now at 49.28...

Re: Economic conditions in the U.S.

Probably a good way to check up real time on economic conditions in the U.S. is to check on insurance policy payouts for people who lost their jobs and have unsecured loans which are covered by third party insurance.

short covering was driving up home builder to upside of 30%
now they are going back to where they are belong --down
my srs is doing good now

CNBC - I used to mute the commercials,now so fed up w/ the steady diatribe that I cannot take more than about 5 minutes a day. What I'd really like to know is a) is the spin intentional, scripted by parent GE, or b) are they just benignly misinformed. Would pref to think the latter. After all, the bull market has been so prevalent from 1980 - 1999 that it's all many people know. The concept of a commodity and hard asset cycle equaling that of paper assets is going to take a long time to get into the mainstream psyche. Maybe the 70s was like this? I was in HS and blissfully market-ignorant at the time

What say you, will the dollar hold at support?

Loved the Jon Stewart satire!

Here's what really should happen next. Ron Paul should reach out to Spitzer and place him on the same ticket (they can settle later who leads). Spitzer has been Governor, which is more leadership than either Clinton or Obama, and has a reputation for law enforcement. Ron Paul has a reputation for know which laws made America great. What a combo!!

Call it the "Irony Ticket".

IB charts are slow, their data feed has fairly large latency delay between the time you request the chart data and the time you get it. Having first hand experience with their software API I know that it is a data access limitation and not the drawing delay. So I would imply that the delay will be there with any 3rd party charting package using IB data feed.

Scottrade Elite charting is pretty fast - but has only basic features and does have some annoying GUI issues. Nevertheless I use Elite most of the time especially if I need to check many stocks quickly.

Stockcharts looks nice and I am considering getting base line service from them but I'd prefer a service that goes back in history earlier than 1990.

I've heard good things about tradestation but it is rather pricey for my needs.

BTW there is a lot of discussion on charting packages and data feeds on elitetrader forums.

Spitzer- still like the guy....stumbling on a personal weakness while trying to do the right is something i can overlook...beats (intentionally) doing the wrong thing (while successfully hiding one's personal weaknesses)...

Hi JRPauley,

Seems to me that the commercials are the answer to your question. Ads for various mutual funds, brokers and investment banks fill the commercial time.

Surely, the advertising would cease should CNBC start telling the truth instead of parading a bunch of pollyanna shills across the screen all day.

After the market closes, they continue with the likes of Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow, two of the most clueless, myopic clowns I've ever seen.

Maybe they ought to give Bill Fleckenstein a show of his own to balance out the myopia?

Regards

Likin that irony ticket!

kaimu,

Are you a buyer of Continuum Resources CNU.V at 0.14? Still holding? Penny for your thoughts. Thanks.

NYUgrad........
to me, think-or-swim have one of the best online charting functionality packages. i think you can try their demo platform for free - but you have to set up a demo account.
i myself use interactive brokers PLUS quotetraker for realtime charts, quotetracker costs 7$ per month. http://www.quotetracker.com/ this combination also gets you into prophet charts - 20 minutes delayed, PLUS historicals/dailies

Even if you're not sure the shills and talking heads are wrong about the financials, LIBOR is sure.

1-month and 3-month LIBOR now stand at 2.7%, still rising despite all the FED action and promises that this was the bottom.

I doubt if any of the talking heads even know what LIBOR is.

Rob.

SRS: The underlying DJ US Real Estate Index is 95% REITs, and the index doesn't include any homebuilders.

Lately, in light of SKF/FXP I find SRS to be an impotent version. Meager appreciation during subprime hysteria, but takes the rallies right on the chin.

Hey I guess some people are liking REITs right now...

Surgeon general's warning: Watching CNBC can dangerously rise blood pressure levels.

I saw Kudlow this week for all of five minutes. The editorializing is so rampant it is ridiculous. Every question of his is a two minute editorial. His show could have run on Soviet national television: "The soviet economy is the strongest in the world. Long lines for butter shows strong demand for the world's best butter".

Gold basis still tight this morning, ~$1.

Wow, did I miss Cramer telling everyone to buy Bear Stearns before this mess happened? This guy is amazing!!!

FattyArbuckle,
If you want to open a negative position on homebuilders why not short XHB or buy puts on XHB
?

Rob.

LIBOR is -- here in the South -- what women sometimes go into after 9 months

Ha!! That was a good one.

Rob.

Good article here on the latest "bottom":

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/BSC-fre-fnm-bottom/index/a/16436

I'm not in SRS, I should've called out my earlier post to vinod: just pointing out that homebuilders have only an associative effect on SRS.

Funny, JRPauley. ;)

Regarding shorting the home builders. People have been arguing for awhile that this is a crowded short sector wide. I've done okay shorting selected names. Right now I have a put spread on XHB and a calendar put on RYL -- one of the names in this group that is due for a steep drop, imo. I just don't know when.

My observation has been that down legs in these stocks have been rapid. Like last summer. After a swoon, they settle into a trading range. High short interest keeps them from moving down too far, and dismal fundamentals keep them from moving too far up.

I was short CTX until recently, and may reenter soon as option premiums come down. CTX has basically staked its future on generating a lot of cash this quarter. I think they will succeed to a certain extent, but given the poor selling season now underway I doubt they will meet expectations.

The report from LEN today simply confirms that housing is a long way from bottoming. The key for traders is gaging whether or not the bottom is in yet for the underlying stocks.

I am really starting to believe that financial news in general are trailing indicators. if the market goes up, they find or publish articles pointing to why after the fact, even if it wasnt the real cause. vice versa. what is the point of watching financial news anymore? I guess it really is all in the tape.

Oh, and for those of you still in ESLR, we're getting a nice little run today. It's a volatile stock, so you're either in it for the long-term or you set a reasonable trailing stop.

One of the other stocks I track in this sector is ASTI, and it has been EXTREMELY volatile. Up big today after getting decimated earlier.

Definitely the solar space is not for the feint of heart or those lacking conviction in this emerging technology.

ldorado Gold FY07 Profit Surges, Revenue More Than Doubles - Update [EGO]

3/27/2008 8:51:53 AM Eldorado Gold Corp. (EGO, ELD.TO), a producer of gold primarily in Turkey and China, on Thursday announced record earnings for fiscal 2007, benefiting from production from two new mines and 27% costs cuts. Earnings and revenues came in below the Street estimate.

http://www.rttnews.com/sp/breakingnews.asp?item=75

ELD.TO or EGO

Anyone know of any highly leveraged commercial real estate companies traded publicly?

FattyArbuckle

Thanks for info about SRS

NYUGrad -

The financial journalists don't really understand the markets or economics. They largely only have journalism degrees and never worked in finance. Consequently, their articles take on the tone of the market. If it is going up, then bad news is discounted. If markets are plunging then they write great depression themed articles.

Came across an interesting article about Edward Jones you won't see in the media.....

http://edhoodfraud.homestead.com/

Can you say .......failure to supervise.

QID- another try at 48.61...

vinod- if you're still holding SNDK, check it out...

ESLR: Took a portion off at 9.51
I'm with Vinod for a double, but I think over 13% in a day will come back a little.

NYUgrad -
"As I said before, the reputable newspapers always try to print explanations for market movements. It is news. Their readers demand to know not only what happens in the stock market but why it happens. Therefore without the manipulator lifting a finger the financial writers will print all the available information and gossip, and also analyse the reports of earnings, trade condition and outlook; in short, whatever may throw light on the advance. Whenever a news paperman or an acquaintance asks my opinion of a stock and I have one I do not hesitate to express it. I do not volunteer advice and I never give tips, but I have nothing to gain in my operations from secrecy. At the same time I realise that the best of all tipsters, the most persuasive of all salesmen, is the tape."
-- Jesse Livermore

uh oh.

Looks like 2nd just bought the banks. :^)

I got out sndk next day
i did good on skf,sndk,also decided to take my money and run on ESLR and LDK which I got in at 21.00
but still under water in SRS. will hold it untill I make It in positive.

I heard some mutual fund is taking big position on ESLR. we should keep eye on it

"NYUGrad--Anyone know of any highly leveraged commercial real estate companies traded publicly?"

You might look at GGP. It is the largest component in SRS (which is my largest holding). Here is a good start on due diligence of GGP.

http://boombustblog.com/content/view/267/34/

I am just patiently waiting for one of the REITs to cut a dividend payment or miss a loan payment; then let's watch SRS. Since consumer spending is 70% of the economy, I found this to be an excellent report on the health of the consumer (as it relates to discretionary spending).
http://ntrs.com/pws/jsp/display2.jsp?XML=pages/nt/0601/1138283681241_6.xml&TYPE=interior Read the 3/24/08 posting of "It's so over for household spending". Lot's of facts.

Vinod: Avoid the trading pitfall of holding a loser until it again breaks even and selling. This plagued me for years. All the anguish and none of the profit.

If it's rising, hang on, of it's not, then get out and redeploy the cash. This is part of fighting the emotions.

Aurator

took your advice and will be out today in SRS

Media: CNBC has lost all credibility in my opinion, and the spin is laughable. The commercials are the best part.

Bloomberg has the best content, but the same old dumb commercials over and over again are killing me. Neck fat... gimme a break.

Fox Business is in between. Some of their guests are great but they have them on for too short a time and the anchors walk all over them. David Asman needs to learn how to listen. They are a young business and need to grow and become more polished.

None of them are as concise and elegant as Bill.

Vinod: Now if I could only take my own... Still in SRS. hehe

Big pump underway in the home builders and financials. End of quarter tape painting or the start of something genuine?

I'll probably wait until next week before entering any new positions.

Bought a little EWT on today's pullback. Compared to the irrational trading in domestic stocks, I like the risk/reward much better here.

SRS: The chart pattern is not telling me to sell here, it's actually set up as a buy.

Agree EWT is probably a great move. However over bought on the election news.

Just in case you have not yet seen this. It is a very funny rewrite of an old song by The Band, capturing some of the “subtleties” of the Bear Stearns saga.

Here is the URL: http://tinyurl.com/ypvhab

Enjoy!

Media:

I subscribe to a live video feed from the Canadian Business News Network, www.bnn.ca , which is so superior to CNBC (and even Bloomberg) that I have reverted back to basic cable, more than covering the $6.95 per month charged by BNN for the video feed.

I find BNN's offerings to be intelligent and informed commentary. In contrast CNBC seems an arena of clueless clowns and preening chorus girls.

CNBC has one redeeming quality - Rick Santelli. I do not fault them for their propaganda. Their viewership declined heavily after the dot.com bust and they have to prop their shows with positive spin for all the viewers to stay. I simply turn down the volume, unless Santelli talks.

Knowing that Steve Liesman was an English major and Dennis Kneale is an uberbull idiot keeps me laughing at their comments.

Wish another channel would come along, but CNBC is the only real-time method for me to see the markets.

John Hussman may exit precious metals later this year ????

"The Market Climate in precious metals remains favorable on our measures, but the tone of the market is becoming increasingly speculative. As usual, we tend to trade around our core position, adding exposure on short-term weakness and clipping it on short-term strength. Consider us increasingly risk-averse, but we do allow for somewhat more strength in commodities before we zero out our precious metals exposure perhaps later this year."

Plus ça change... (plus c'est la même chose)

The following, a recollection from 100 years ago, might have been written about Bear Stearns.

"When a stock keeps on going down you can bet there is something wrong with it, either with the market for it or with the company. If the decline were unjustified the stock would soon sell below its real value and that would bring in buying that would check the decline. As a matter of fact, the only time a bear can make big money selling a stock is when that stock is too high. And you can gamble your last cent on the certainty that insiders will not proclaim that fact to the world.

"Of course, the classic example is the New Haven. Everybody knows today what only a few knew at the time. The stock sold at 255 in 1902 and was the premier railroad investment of New England. A man in that part of the country measured his respectability and standing in the community by his holdings of it. If somebody had said that the company was on the road to insolvency he would not have been sent to jail for saying it. They would have clapped him in an insane asylum with other lunatics. But when a new and aggressive president was placed in charge by Mr. Morgan and the debacle began, it was not clear from the first that the new policies would land the road where it did.

"But as property after property began to be saddled in the Consolidated Road at inflated prices, a few clear sighted observers began to doubt the wisdom of the Mellen policies. A trolley system was bought for two million and sold to the New Haven for $10,000,000; whereupon a reckless man or two committed lese majeste by saying that the management was acting recklessly. Hinting that not even the New Haven could stand such extravagance was like impugning the strength of Gibraltar.

"Of course, the first to see breakers ahead were the insiders. They became aware of the real condition of the company and they reduced their holdings of the stock. On their selling as well as on their non-support, the price of New England's giltedged railroad stock began to yield. Questions were asked, and explanations were demanded as usual; and the usual explanations were promptly forthcoming. "Prominent insiders" declared that there was nothing wrong that they knew of and that the decline was due to reckless bear selling. So the "investors" of New England kept their holdings of New York, New Haven & Hartford Stock. Why shouldn't they? Didn't insiders say there was nothing wrong and cry bear selling? Didn't dividends continue to be declared and paid? In the meantime the promised squeeze of the bears did not come but new low records did. The insider selling became more urgent and less disguised.

"Nevertheless public spirited men in Boston were denounced as stock-jobbers and demagogues for demanding a genuine explanation for the stock's deplorable decline that meant appalling losses to everybody in New England who had wanted a safe investment and a steady dividend payer. That historic break from $255 to $12 a share never was and never could have been a bear drive. It was not started and it was not kept up by bear operations. The insiders sold right along and always at higher prices than they could have done if they had told the truth or allowed the truth to be told. It did not matter whether the price was 250 or 200 or 150 or too or 50 or 25, it still was too high for that stock, and the insiders knew it and the public did not.

"The public might profitably consider the disadvantages under which it labours when it tries to make money buying and selling the stock of a company concerning whose affairs only a few men are in position to know the whole truth."

-- Jesse Livermore

There's been a lot of discussion whether Gold, Silver, and the PGMs will decouple from the commodities markets overall. Gold up, commodities down. I think there's a better than 50% chance, except energy still goes up. How much demand to Asia and India gets taken down with the US slump?

When I first read about predictions of the dollar decline taking the DXY index to 40, it was difficult to imagine the sequence that could get us there. Chartman McHugh predicts 40, visionary Schiff sees 40 or even lower, and educator Puplava usualy does not give a number but expects a decline and actually a depression going into 2010 (Maybe one more bounce from here in the stock market.)

After reading how small of a percentage of the financial debacle (derivitives and consumer credit) is behind us, and seeing how the Fed is trading good funny money for bad funny money, the scenario seems much more likely.

I swear Schiff has some kind of Infrared Radar that lets him see the financial battleground through the smoke. His response is not to go short, but to buy Gold and foreign dividend paying stocks. Out of the US dollar except for selected miners. He had a great broadcast this week if you missed it. Ignore the promotional content (he has to make a living, and seems to be doing well) but take in the predictions and scenario.

http://tinyurl.com/3bo9ze

Another piece that I thought was well done, and indicates how "well done" we all are, is the Chris Puplava summary from Wednesday:

http://tinyurl.com/3yaf4u

In summary, if these ideas hit home, using investments like RRPIX may be a bad idea since they are not out of the US dollar. The price might double as the equivalent purchasing power gets cut in half. Maybe FXF would be a superior play without the risk, just for example.

"Data worse than expected..."

Trading limited today: Out of COF puts again; bought PBW and ALTI for alternative energy plays.

I'll keep a close eye on VNO.

http://tinyurl.com/262bll

I caught about 10 mins of CNBC a while ago... They were gushing over how "courageous" the move by the fed was to prevent the BSC collapse. To recap the lesson of the last few days, as I understand it:

It is "courageous" for a private institution (the Fed) to spend tax-payer funds to bail out unregulated and miss-regulated private risk. It is "courageous" for our politicians to permit rewarding the most egregious risk takers by socializing the fruits of their folly at the expense of their constituents...mom and pop. It is "courageous" for our financial and political leaders to perpetuate a failed system because this system continues to empower them (regardless of the impact to free market capitalism, constititutional law, and basic human decency) . And it is "courageous" for FET to promulgate a sense of denial surrounding these failings.

Have I missed anything here?

Does anyone else sense the not-so-subtle smell of fascism here, or am I the only "coward" in the room?

On the face of it, bailing out Bear Stearns may have been the only approach to preventing a collapse, but what is an increasingly unified banking syndicate has availed themselves of the public trust in order to accomplish their own ends.

FranSIx,

I think I would be ok with the bail-out if it were part of a comprehensive mea-culpa... An intervention, of sorts with a clear acknowledgement of the scale and scope of the issues and a genuine call to arms for litigation and reform.

The current line of action, embracing obfuscation and subterfuge, although soothing to the markets in the short term, can only end badly in the long term. IMHO, the pain will increase exponentially for the noble, if not ignorant, masses.

Lehman is one sick puppy today. Traders are worrying about it's solvency I think as it is levered 32:1. Looks like it wants to close the gaps. Recognizing earnings on the markets view of Lehman's inability to pay it's debts is not exactly sustainable earnings.

I understand the Hussman quote in the sense that he wants to avoid speculative markets as the risk is to high for his conservative fund. I don't see him talking about the fundamentals, just the excessive speculation.

"I caught about 10 mins of CNBC a while ago... They were gushing over how "courageous" the move by the fed was to prevent the BSC collapse."

Santelli is the only one to watch on that network. He apparently said that they might as well put the hammer and sickle on the stars and stripes after this bailout!

NYUgrad,
The best chart package is TradeStation. No one competes with them. Every possible indicator and any timeframe. You can have a 1,3,5,15,60,daily, weekly and monthly all with differing indicators, ma's, etc. all on one screen. Click any time frame and that absorbs the whole screen. Another window on another monitor can have the Matrix; point and click trading for fast execution. Backup windows can have the Radar Station which tracks your watch lists for various indicators and ranks them in whatever order you want. All of this in real time.

Heh, stopped out of ESLR. Told you guys this was a volatile puppy.

I'll bank the cash and wait for another entry.

Thanks stktrader. I am all cash so it would be easy for me to start fresh away from ameritrade.

I will look into tradestation and thinkorswim (i never heard of them until today).

MntGntx,

Re "the not-so-subtle smell of fascism". I believe it was Mussolini who defined "corporatism" (society run for the benefit of corporate interests) as the first phase of fascism.

We the sheeple seem to have meandered willingly along that path. Now under Bush's continuing "reign of error" we enter what may prove to be the concluding phase, "rescue at any cost". Bye, bye, liberty . . . .

Just my gut feeling....but if the bulls are to do anything they will rally off this low (see macd on any chart) into today's close so they can go positive tomorrow and into the weekend.
Otherwise they have to start in the AM.

A person could have bought and sold the macd crossovers all week on XLF and done pretty good, better with an ultra.

Just re-entered ESLR based on divergence on 5 minute.

Tight stop in case I'm wrong.

FETV : if you put Bloomberg TV on the 'puter they don't play commercials . Drop it to your task bar and just listen . I " just said no " ,to CNBC in 2000 .

JP Morgan underwrites offering for NovaGold.

NG NG.TO

Reversal and some strength in PLG. (Long)

These National City rumors of interest for a takeover seem like a play to unload the stock. This company is full of mortgages from California, Florida, Arizona and Michigan. I'd be very surprised if there was really a buyer.

There doesn't seem to be any conviction on either side of the market today. There must be something everyone is waiting for because Volatility is really calming down too.

Maybe everyone's waiting for the next financial crash. It's hard to figure out today.

Rob.

Re: discussion on charting programs.
I use Amibroker and love it. I used to use it with real time data from esignal, Livecharts, or DTN, but am too cheap to pay the price for esignal, and the rest aren't worth the cost. So now I use it with Yahoo 15-20 minute delayed data and am extremely happy. (If anyone is using Amibroker with real time Canadian data I'd love to hear about it.) I've been using an RSI trading system and it is extremely easy to search your whole database for stocks that trigger buy/sells when they cross the 30/70 levels.

The way I am using it is more for swing trading than daytrading. If I was using it for daytrading I would pay the price for esignal data. You can use IB data but I don't think there are backfills.

I do not use Amibroker anywhere near what it is capable of doing. If you are looking for a product that is easy to use "right out of the box", I would probably use one of Worden's products.

I'm still holding 2x short NDX, and likely will hold over for tomorrow. Appears that the recent lift stopped right at the resistance highs of Feb 13-14, and headed down from RSI level that's been turning back uplifts since beginning of '08.

Dave

Big write downs expected for: C MER UBS

LEH getting pounded.

Ugly close.

Even less vol than yesterday though...

Shorted FSLR @ 227. This seems like a replay of the end of Q4 - low volume trading - the stock climbing to stupid levels on short covering.

yes number2son, very ugly close. No buyers around today...

Dave

bobj -
IB does have intraday backfill for up to one year but access to it is rather slow.

If there was no bailout from fed of Bear
what would have happen
it is possible that result would have heart us all
this is just one of the many view I have

Trade defecit eased by shipment of nuke fuses:

http://tinyurl.com/32fnos

I hope this isn't a repost.

We live in interesting times.....

http://www.emailthis.clickability.com/et/emailThis?clickMap=viewThis&etMailToID=273073531

[Bill Cara note: Put the Silver Spoon fox (Paulson) into the hen house, and this is what happens. I called it Paulson's Folly from the outset. What every American now needs to do is to say to their representatives in Washington, "Either go on the record today to put a stop to this nonsense from Paulson, Wall Street and Bernanke, or I'll never vote for you again!" The People have to give this message before it's too late. America stands at the crossroads today.]

fatty: re:SRS

Interesting that it is REITs and this explains the lack of volatility. Any idea what the yield is on the underlying portfolio?

BSC CEO Cayne just sold his entire holdings in BSC.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080327/bear_stearns_cayne.html

Dave

[Bill Cara note: Doesn't this tell you all you need to know about the people running Wall Street? My heart goes out to the people this guy employed, and their pensions/dreams and their families. Shocking, but not unexpected.]

Apparently big brokers have been tapping the Fed window for over $30 billion a day this week. Of course, they're just testing it to see how it works. har har
Gee...how about loaning me a billion or two!

Hi,

End of week, near end of month, end of quarter.

Volatility is served a little before, and a lot after.

I see no reason to enter any of these markets for position trades before the end of next week.

Meanwhile, of course I will probably have some fun with a few little trades, but nothing really serious.

Cheers!

APOL missed and is getting punished after market.

I wonder how someone would do if they bought puts and wrote calls for all the companies coming out with earnings in the next 2 months. i bet on average the gains outweigh the losses mightily.

Read this on Jesse's blog:

"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will
ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves.
-- attributed to President Andrew Jackson, who in 1836 forced the closing of the Second Bank of the U.S. by revoking its charter

re: SRS

Yahoo finance shows underlying index (IYR) as having yield of 4.58%. Top holding is Simon Property Group (SPG) at 6.73%.

Had a quick look at the SPG annual report, and while I am not very familiar with REIT financial statements, overall it looks like they have a lot of new and high end developments and plenty more developments in the pipeline. I would expect new and high end to suffer the most in a recession, and new developments could become dead weight.

SPG is yielding 3.8%, which seems very low for a REIT, (at least relative to cdn reits I've followed in the past) and may indicate price has room to correct.

Being an SRS holder, I am obviously biased and believe a slowing economy will ultimately result in store closures and dropping rents.

You know when your significant other (mostly women) say...

"Your money is my money, and my money is my money?"

That should be engraved somewhere on wall street.

GRG.v reminds me of ARU.v in it's early days.
Today GRG.v "Golden Arrow" announced 61 metres at 3.04 grams per tonne gold and 7.16 grams per tonne silver on Poncha, and 266 metres at 1.21 grams per tonne gold and 3.30 grams per tonne silver.
The stock has only 15million shares outstanding
and has $6million in cash on the books. They also
have a 1% net smelter agreement coming into effect later this year with Yamana Gold which will generate $1.5-2million in cash. Stock closed at just .84cts CDN. today. I can remember when ARU.v announced a similar find and 3 days later it closed above $3.00.
_________________________________________________

Golden Arrow drills 61 m of 3.04 g/t Au on Poncha
2008-03-27 06:32 ET - News Release
GRG.v @.84cts

Mr. Joseph Grosso reports

GOLDEN ARROW INTERSECTS 61M AT 3.04 G/T GOLD AND 7.16 G/T SILVER ON PONCHA PROJECT, ARGENTINA

Golden Arrow Resources Corp. has released the assay results from the five-hole 1,553-metre reverse-circulation (RC) drill program carried out in November-December, 2007, on the Poncha gold-copper project in San Juan, Argentina. The five holes tested geochemical-geophysical targets within the two-kilometre by two-kilometre South target epithermal precious/base metal zone, completing the phase II drill program started in April-May, 2007.

http://tinyurl.com/37ez2j

tsx.com/HttpController?GetPage=QuotesLookupPage&DetailedView=DetailedPrices&Market=T&ref=
quickquotehome&Language=en&QuoteSymbol_1=grg

Send in the clowns

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/03/kudlow-down-and-dirty.html

CdnxTracker,

Your link is too long, please shorten it with tinyurl.com next time.

F6

"... Public investors bought hook,line, & sinker the tech telecom bubble by bidding up stocks for companies with no earnings. Public investors bought hookline & sinker the housing bubble by bidding up homes and related mortgage finance stocks, when homes had absurdly overstated values. The public will thus earn a strategic spot in bread lines, as their lifetime savings slowly vanish, as their home equity slowly vanishes, as their pension funds slowly vanish.

The consumer has fading job security, little credit to rely upon, and is increasingly under-water in upside down home loans. The USFed lost control of the monetary handle long ago, the monetary spigot, and the monetary cure. The historic decline in the USDollar is the global report card on their horrendously destructive legacy. The rising gold price is the siren call of financial distress felt worldwide. When gold returns over $1000 mark, when silver returns over the $20 mark, the distress signals will be heard again. Give it another two weeks for sentiment to repair from the hedge fund margin call coordinated in the last ugly week. Raise suspicions that those margin calls occurred when JPMorgan was capturing Bear Stearns. A coincidence? Not a chance! ..."

http://tinyurl.com/2q4r6u

Hi,

I hear that Citi upgraded Lehman Bros to a buy on very attractive valuation.

The mind boggles...

Jim Sinclair expects dollar near or below 50 before too long:

"The US dollar will be fortunate if it can halt a decline at .5200 on the USDX. This is because the central bank, like it or not, is in a corner from which there is no escape. It must and will provide the liquidity required so that no financial entity capable of starting a domino effect will outright fail."

http://tinyurl.com/35hd78

ergo $1650 Gold

~~

Dow chart possible in terminating bearish sym triangle to finish off the right shoulder of a massive H&S. McHugh warns a decisive violation of 11,700 would be catastrophic.