Sinclair's site had this posting and I was curious if anyone else had the same experience....

Dear Jim,

I just went to make a routine on-line transfer of funds from my savings account to my checking account this morning and got this notice. It is the first time I have ever seen a notice like this. I might be wrong, but it looks like the federal "regulators" have come up with another rule to try to limit more runs on banks. They must really be getting nervous.

From my online banking account this morning:

"We are required by federal regulations to monitor savings and money market account withdrawal activity and limit third-party or pre-authorized transfers to six per month. This includes transfers made by personal computer (online), telephone, or from overdraft protection. Of these six transfers allowed per month, no more than three may be made by check or draft. If transactions continue to exceed these limits, the law requires us to close savings accounts and transfer funds to a non-interest bearing checking account. Please note that money market accounts will not be closed, but converted to a non-interest bearing checking account and a fee may be charged when transaction limits are exceeded.

If you have any questions, please call the 1-800 telephone number printed on your banking statement."

All I can say is... May [we all] live in interesting times.

All the best,
CIGA Buz

What I find disconcerting is that gloating about declines in the gold price should occur to talking heads at all at this point.

If we really are seeing a crush in the silver markets, which is a more important indicator when measured with gold, then the rest of the market is on tenuous ground, to say the least.

the unemployment line just got longer.
http://tinyurl.com/22cy8m

Good Morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Downgrades:

IBN - to Underperform @ Jefferies & Co.
SNDK - to Neutral @ JP Morgan

Target Price Lowered:

GOOG - from $675 to $530 @ RBC

-------------------------------------------------

New research report on Vimpel-Communications (VIP):

http://tinyurl.com/2a7tuy

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great Easter weekend.

GOOG has been downgraded and the PT lowered?
When did that happen? LOL!

Where are the markets headed? Are you smart enough to take advantage of it? Invest in yourself first.
http://wallastoninvestments.com/invest-in-yourself-first-and-in-a-good-library-of-books

Sign of the times?

Last night when I went to APMEX to check the current cost of gold bullion coins I found this message:

"""
Dear Valued Customer,

Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem. In the mean time, we will be accepting telephone orders for the following items only as we have them available:

• 1 ounce Gold American Eagles
• 1 ounce Gold Canadian Maple Leafs
• 1 Ounce Gold Krugerrands
• 100 oz Silver Bars
• Misc Generic .999 Fine Silver
• 90% Coin Silver
"""

http://tinyurl.com/2ve6vd

Merrill Lynch sues bond insurer over deal terminations

http://tinyurl.com/yt684v

Start of a new trend?

Ron

Paul Van Eden weighs in this morning:

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?sid=205&vid=39556

johojo: Got the APMEX notice in email. I was going to look for some Platinum bars, which they have not had for quite a while. That is where I've accumulated a good portion of my bullion, and they can be trusted. Every time I get a box, the Postal employee makes some comment about the weight (Silver). Last time "what's in there, rocks?" I said "Gold bars" and she had a good laugh. ;)

Aurator,

My postal deliveries always ask about APMEX packages, too. I just smile and say that my girlfriend has expensive tastes . . . .

craig-

sector rotation at theh open comes to mind...long financials/technology + short commodities-> question would be what the half-life is for these trades...as soon as you go long one set of sectors, almost immediately start thinking of reversing the trade? LOL

who bought SNDK at 19.54- want to send him/her some flowers from hawaii...

re APMEX/bullion, slightly off topic but I've been buying pre 1933 US Gold coins. I noticed that during the late gold bull mkt of the 80s. these outperformed gold by 2x, 3x in many cases. Many caveats, just fyi

Cara 100 Update:

New Coverage:

YHOO - Buy @ ICAP

Target Price Raised:

NKE - $76 to $77 @ UBS
NKE - $70 to $71 @ McAdams,Wright & Ragen

SNDK/INTC/WIND-> adding second 20% here...

Added another 25% SNDK @ $20

Accumulating energy junior Sulphco SUF. They have a process to convert heavy crude to lighter crude.

Added more DGP.

Ag & Infrastructure stocks being sold off

Ok, so this one takes the cake on the goldilocks aspect:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9732.htm

:O

F6

Listened to Abby Joseph Cohen on CNBC this morning.

Now, I'm wondering if Larry Kudlow is a cross dresser? :^)

TLT closing in on the 52 wk high...someone mentioned a 'target' of up to 105? RRPIX with a 16 handle may be as low as it gets absent a panic spike in the long bond?

I'm not sure I'm the person to ask at this point 2nd! I've been ticketed several times driving the wrong way and entering against the don't enter, wrong way signs.....

Barry was on Bloomberg this AM saying my crazy driving is actually right, but man it feels ugly and the red blinking lights are scary.

I started nibbling on a couple JR's yesterday and they need scuba this AM but it looks like we might be finding at least a ST bottom. I see they've dropped some weight and are starting to surface....so far.

Hard to know when we will see the bottom....and my feel/timing is sucking.

All the great Beta trades of the past 6 months are being unwound simutaneously (Ag, Infrastructure, Metals, energy).

It has to be that the banks are tightening the noose around the hedge funds and thus these positions are being unqound with ferocity.

That's my take. I am thinking that this will set up a huge buying opportunity in all these spaces.

For instance have you ever seen the backlog in infratstructure stocks like FWLT, JEC, MDR? It's unreal, in most cases they have multi-years of billion dollar backlogs, primarily from the emerging buildouts. These backlogs should only get deeper and longer if gov't gets crazy an tries to pump money here in the next few years.

What is the procedure, please, for hooking up with the Skype day-trader network? Many thanks in advance.

craig- you're not the only one, my friend...been speeding myself and running a couple of red lights...i think the trading has gotten 'trickier' but less random-> ie, i think general direction (in terms of sentiment) will begin to last longer than one day, but picking the right sector(s) will be be more critical than previously...

Craig and 2nd:
Be careful; read Colin Twiggs latest.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/free/trading_diary/trading_diary.htm
Good luck to both of you...and all Caraistas.

McHugh writes the 3 mo T-bill yield of 0.61% is the lowest in 50 years, and is at a "depression era level". Fed needs to raise rates by 165 basis points to be even. He says if they don't change their tactics to dump money directly on the consumer and not the banks, we have a depression.

Dow trapped in declining channel, which if it holds, would suggest buying DIA puts when the Dow is 12,300 to 12,400, the channel limit.

Short term treasury yield this morning is 0.34%

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

I keep thinking about OldGoat's sage advice yesterday:

Having trouble finding opportunities/entries. Reminder to self: "Cash is a position."

I was experiencing serious remorse about having sold EEV and FXP positions last Friday. I had expected these to decline because of the Fed rate cut. Some decline!

But, "Cash is a position" particularly when the market is going down....

Looks like squeeze the shorts for option expiration time.

I've just been adding to my shorts/puts as YEN goes up all morning....

actually since 10:10 am (not all morning)

allen - You're channeling Jesse L. (from CT's latest):

The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.

~ Jesse Livermore in Edwin Lefevre's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Looking into laddered puts on SHV.

Grabbed a handfil of Jun 17 puts XHB at the Dollar Store.

No puts on SHV, no shortable shares. Any ideas?

Treasury bills hit 0.19%!

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

BSV has puts.

SHY has puts with better liquidity.

Holy friggin' cr**. ^IRX at 0.2%! That is a negative nominal return after fees!

No trust among thieves.

I learned from minyanville yesterday that after the 1989 bubble burst in Japan it took 4 years for 3 month Japanese treasuries to decline from 4% to 0.5%. It has happened here in 6 months.

At least we are aware that the bulk of leveraged trades are in 3 mo. treasury bill futures.

just posted an updated chart of bond yeilds ($TNX)
bottoming evidence is growing. next week is key.

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

I think we need one more panic like MER or CFC or ABK or MBI bankrupt before Bond yields will bottom.

At that point I could see short yields going negative briefly and that is when I'm buying puts on TLT and maybe SHY as well.

Does anyone know of anywhere you can chart mortgate rates. I still think the curve is going up for many mortgages but would like to see it graphically.

Good luck out there.

Rob.

Old Goat, Thanks for another sage comment. You're right about the need for constant action. I sometimes do a trade because (1) I think it's a good idea (based on whatever evidence I have), and (2) I feel like I need to be doing something. 97% cash feels strange to someone who tends to be 100% in equities.

dr. cosa, why would you be anticipating a rise in the 10-year bond yield any time soon? What would that indicate?

Thank You Ronbon...I needed that....
Don't know how I missed CT this AM.

Adding to SRS/SKF...little bites....more wrong way driving.

Rob:

I know this isn't exactly what you're looking for, but bankrate.com shows low-resolution graphs of residential mortgage rates of various mortgage types....

Yen is taking off....look for the market to weaken...FXF is still in park.

Jay,
Thanks, I'll have a look

Rob.

Anybody looked at long-term bond yields in Japan in in the 1988-2000 timeframe? I'm wondering if that gives us some kind of clue as to what to expect here and now....

FranSix,

1. the technicals to me are showing signs of a bottom taking place (as noted i recognize its more of a process than a specific point)

2. as pointed out in this forum for the past while as part of the TOG thesis it seems to be that money will begin to leave bonds as interest rates continue to fall.
(im not specifying 10 year treasuries as much as bonds in general, i just prefer the 10 year yeild chart for my example)

Mish's post that i linked to my story also highlights the traditional inverse relationship of bonds and gold and how in a deflationary environment gold would shine over bonds. forcing yeilds up to make them attractive to buyers.

Who would want to be long over the weekend? I expect the market to end even or down with yields on treasuries pushing new lows.

I don't quite have enough conviction to go short yet though. If the DOW get to 200+ up though, I'll likely get some more DOW puts.

Rob.

How long will foreign bond investors stand for ultra low yields while at the same time having the US Dollar devalued at a precipitous pace?

Watch for the Middle East guys to throw in the towel first (maybe hidden joke), and then the Chinese.

Bought SKF @ $112.30

dr cosa, we might eventually be in a hard money situation with negative bond yields. Where money just starts to buy money. I doubt whether an advance in 10-year bond yields by a few basis points will have any material effect, such as a bias towards gold.

That being said, gold is money and therefore in a scarcity of hard currency once the ability to leverage just about any trade is curtailed, this places gold under much greater demand than before.

imo, bond yields will remain low.

Amazing that Barrick loses almost 20% Market Cap
in
2
DAYS.

Nice call Bill.

ALOHA !!

I have been watching GIX for awhile. Bought GIX at $1.65CDN accumlating ...

The move down confirms my belief it was overpriced above $2.00CDN and of course it was via the RSI method, but I also look at GIX in relation to ECU, which I am also watching to buy. ECU will have mining revenues as well as an existing large deposit. All the infrastructure is in place and management has stated they are done with dilution. Of course none of that is reflected in the share price yet, so in the meantime I contiinue to accumulate based on RSI indicators.

A further inticement to buy these CDN denominated stocks is the latest little USDX rally, which makes buying GIX and ECU right now an even better deal than a month ago, if you want to move out of US Pesos.

onlineaces,

I noticed that the new high interest savings account at capital one financial had the same restriction of 6 withdrawls per month. It was advertised well enough, so nothing covert going on, though i did think it odd when i saw it. Oddly enough they don't specify a max $ limit on each withdrawl, unless that's hidden in the fine print...

Kaimu -

Why did you believe GIX to be overvalued?

Thx

Kaimu, do you like the CDN versions better than ECUXF and GXEXF?

I would think that when the banks get done running the miners and GOLD and other commodities down they'll start buying and telling us to sell if we haven't sold already.

Maybe the tell will be when Goldman comes out and says we should Sell Gold

Or when S&P downgrades Gold!!!

Rob.

Fannie Mae is hugging that 35 strike like a teddy bear. No matter what the broad market does I bet it closes 35.01 and the big interest in 35 puts goes home with nothing. I should have seen this yesterday.

Also nibbling more mining juniors: NAK PAL URRE.

CIT group halted. Its down 30% today.

This is the latest deal....offer relatively "high" interest rates for 6 mos. - 12 mos. CD's but with restrictions....also some of the online banks too.

They are SO subtle, aren't they? Do you think J6P notices any of the small print?

Quote from CIT Group:

"We are actively positioning CIT to maximize value by optimizing our business portfolio and sizing our company to market conditions."

Sounds just like the internet!

USU seems to be reversing off an attractuve price IMHO. I met these guys a couple years ago, and they are one of the few Uranium enrichment and processing companies. They had also been converting Russian nukes to reactor fuel, but I think that is just about over. And they gave me a nice chip-clip. ;)

The fall in gold was expected here, so it should not have surprised you. As gold rose to $1020, I mentioned that this may be the time that the fundamentals of the financials may be starting to over power TA. When I posted that, I "knew" that we were approaching a top, because as soon as you start to think something along the lines of; "this time it may be different", you are wrong. Consequently, gold fell.

If you took gains around the $1000 level (as you should have, selling into strength), now is the time to determine at what levels to put that cash back to work. Bill thinks gold may fall as far as $800, but I think that the $850 level will hold (maybe a one day throwover to lower levels). If today is the low, what level of exposure would be right for you if gold rose to new highs? At what lower levels would you add to your core position? On past experience, I have $900, $880 and $850 on my target list. What about yours?

In the past, I have mentioned an easy entry into gold on weakness would be to add on each $50 mark on the way down. I have also said that I believe in adding when RSI's are oversold and gold rises above the downtrend line. With the volatility that we are experiencing, typical TA tactics may be difficult and the dollar cost averaging may be a better plan for most traders. Another problem with buying on this weakness is that the MACD cycle hasn't bottomed yet, that points to more downside, maybe down to Bill's $800 levels.

These are the times make or break traders.

Do you have a plan?

What are your long term fundamental views? That will determine whether you trade from the long or short side.

What is your proper position size? For every 10% of your portfolio, a subsequent 10% decline will be reflected as a 1% decline in portfolio value.

IMO, being successful today is about; simple math, having a firm grasp on the fundamentals, an understanding of your mental balance of risk/reward and a mental conviction to act on your plan - buying weakness and selling strength.

If we do make it to the $800 level, the technicals will be oversold and ripe for a purchase as talking heads are saying that the commodity run is over. Are you prepared for your downside? Are you prepared to add cash at that point? If you are, that is the Trade of the Generation and will likely coincide with another top in bonds that may be the last top for many, many years.

Btw, taking advantage in the current weakness in gold and silver will allow you to switch your positions from GLD and SLV ETFs to CEF, with less tax consequences and probably less premium in CEF (it's a closed end fund). If that is in your plan of course.

we ARE Japan

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/03/whos-laughing-now-carry-trade-currency.html

"Fannie Mae is hugging that 35 strike like a teddy bear. No matter what the broad market does I bet it closes 35.01 and the big interest in 35 puts goes home with nothing."

Of course there are exceptions, but I've observed this more often than not and it's why it is a good idea to close near option positions ahead of expiration week.

Another thought; Bill's batting average over the years has been incredible and we should all give him a standing ovation.

We all would like to have his experience in and knowledge of the capital markets. Don't forget, Bill formerly owned a very successful brokerage firm and has been in meetings with the types of money (gnomes) that allows him to understand the markets in a way that most of us will never be able to. He called the stock top in 2000, the bottom in 2002 and the current top. Not to the day, but within the range that puts him at the top of the list. For individual stocks he has actually called the top and bottom within an hour and that's amazing in itself. With all that being said, he probably started doubting himself at least a little bit when gold looked so strong above $1000 - at least for an instant. Doubts creep into everyone, it's only human nature, but having the mental state to stick to his convictions is what seperates the greats from the rest. Being on the correct side of the big moves allows a trader to miss some of the upside and some of the downside without feeling remorse for not catching the "perfect" top or bottom. You can't be perfect, so why strive for perfection? It will only drive you crazy.

Thx g034 for the wisdom.

I sold 20% of my PM position when gold was north of 980. I am taking a bite at CEF today to reload 1/2 of what I sold. Another half will likely follow in the low to mid 800s. If it gets below 800 I'll be buying more agressively.
Adding a little RRPIX today. Also following 2nd and took a small long position in WIND. DBA is tempting but every time I longed it in the past I got burned, it is an unlucky ticker for me. Nevertheless willing to try one more time.

Yeah, GO34, great posts today.

G034,
Sage advice on both posts. Thanks.

And I agree Bill has been right on with his calls.

I can't even imagine how bad my portfolio would look if I never found this site. Before I was flying in the wind. Now I have a plan and a set of trading rules and I try my best to keep emotion out and realize I don't have to trade everyday or even every week to be successful.

Thanks Bill and Caraistas!!!
I will return the favor.

Rob.

fran and others who mentioned regarding my earlier post,

the TA is imho showing signs of bottoming. im not arguing against TA. and in recognition of the process involved, its my take on the situation.

Occam - good job! (on longs, I think stops should be pretty tight though).

Finger said - "I will return the favor". Are you buying the Kaliks? ;-)

Looking back on it, the other day's "discourse" was pretty funny - families do squabble, kind of like seagulls sometimes. Some of you guys were really touchy, I'm glad I wasn't involved :-) Hope you all have laughed it off by now.

Standing "O" for Bill. I feel very lucky to be able to read his thoughts on the screen every day. Some of the near gold producers are not coming off as bad as the big guns. dipping the toes a bit here.

My beloved Fighting Illini had a rare down year and are not in the tournament, but I'd like to wish all the American NCAA basketball fans good luck in this years tournament.

For all of those that are lucky enough to be sitting in bars around America rooting their teams on...I wish I was with you, but some of us have to work!

ALOHA!!

moab ... Simply put GIX was too high a price based on RSI TA compared to a month ago. On the other side when I look at fundamentals I believe the stock got ahead of itself. I am buying drill results and management and so far there is little to buy in terms of 43-101, especially if you compare GIX to similar sector picks priced in the same range like ECU. I also like the FX play, but that can be applied to ECU as well right now ... Meaning the CDN was worth more than a USD a month ago!

Regarding TA ... Sometimes I will not wait until the "RSI stars align" perfectly, especially if I know there may be some very positive drill results or some other development coming soon. Is there?

tele ... Yes, I prefer the CDN symbols especially on USDX rally. There is typically more volume on the TSX. Keep in mind that many of these OTC stocks go to the AMEX. Almost all of the HD Group started at the OTC and are now on the AMEX. In that case then volume isn't the issue but the long term FX value still applies.

Keep in mind it will take at least 7 trading days for signs of a recovery in gold prices.

g034,
Yes, I would be happy to buy any of you a drink when we eventually meet.

Maybe we should organize a Northeastern Caraista happy hour or happy weekend.

What I really meant was that I hope to share some tradeable insights and viewpoints with you all in return for all of the perspective and knowledge you've given me.

What goes around come around right?

Rob.

Adding to SKF

Not sure I am smart enough to explain what is going on with $IRX today? Why is the 13 week Tbill falling off a cliff? Someone pushing the nuke button soon?

go34 thanks for the reminder.It strikes me as very applicable for me today, I did not expect the miners to drop quite so lockstep with gold....they do not go up 1 on 1 with gold. And in the last couple of days, I had begun to see I was heavier into the jr miners than I had planned. Now I am underwater by 10% after being up 7%. I have learned alot here, just not enough. I have at least kept my trading account small and my position sizes small. I now have the unfortunate task of deciding which jr miner to sell. Or as you said,...."Are you prepared to add cash at that point?" Do I increase the size of my trading account just because I am out of bullets and facing the TOG. That smacks to me of averaging down.
So thanks go34, and to all who post here. I am sitting on my hands for the moment.
disclosure: long RMK,ATN,NRN,WGW AND lastly,EGO :^ (ironic)
Thank you Bill. for your site and your insight.
peace from North Puget Sound
Gray

Must read regarding mortgage delinquency acceleration:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/fitch-baltic-dry-fdx-loan/index/a/16353

This is absolutely hilarious. That man is going to be run out of the industry. That is enough to make me double SKF.

http://tinyurl.com/2c79f2

IF Barrick [ABX] was trading in high 40's and low 50's from POG 780-950 for quite some time,

NOW with POG @ 900
ABX is at

43?

g034 Well stated. Kudos to Bill!

EEMt- long live MF Global!

Looks like the financial and home builder pump is running on overdrive.

Agree that Bove is squandering what is left of his credibility here. Maybe he believes people have short memories. I don't, and I won't forget this call.

In any case, this is a nice set up for entering new shorts. Too early today, imo, but soon the time will be right.

There is a good discussion of counterparty risk for the ultrashorts here:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=35665

UBS is a counterparty and they are in a world of hurt right now. It makes sense to me to short the ultra longs rather than buy the ultrashorts due to the counterparty risk.

Anyone agree?

2nd Ave : Long Live 2nd Ave ! Long Live MF and parabolic rises !!

I have migrated to skype.. new passport new identity..new emoticons...OG is introducing me to some new neighbors...all SKF lovers ..come join the wild boyz with a sense of humor....

Congratulations on the publishing of your book Bill! Great to hear the first copies are out. Will make for a nice Easter present.

Enjoy the time with your family Bill. You're right on target, it's the real deal!

moab: Can't short in retirement accounts. Case closed there.

Aurator, read the comments along w/ that story. Looks like 19 comments and all/most have the same incredulous opinion of that so called "analysis". The good news is how few are fooled

Sure could have used Bove at my house in FL, to kill one cockroach and fix my bug issue forever.

I am truly amazed that gold leader--ABX has no bounce whatsoever
Crashing 20% and not even a dead cat...

Very strange

good friday-> markets closed or open 1/2 day?

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Notice some of you buying SKF. Given short term volatility in this fund and sector, why not SKF call options?

Also, I just saw Frank Holmes on CNBC. He thinks this is a fast but short correction with gold, with maybe 50 more to the downside.

g52-
to paraphrase gil scott-heron, the TOG will not be televised...you could do worse than open a position in RRPIX at today's close, guessing 16.74...

taking INTC/WIND/(this morning's buy of SNDK) off here...

Did you hear the news? The financial crisis is over. I guess all the homeowners are no longer over extended and all the brokers and banks have rock solid balance sheets.

Someone link me to where i can pick up my free $1B govt bailout check?

EEMt- off next week, going to give skype a try...

crazy......

bizzzzarrrre.....

All logic fails here.

C up 10% today.

The writing is on the wall. And everyone here knows who wrote it first.

Now 95% cash and hunkered down for better opportunities. Thanks Bill.

Exciting times for all you expert traders, yes?

2nd Ave : GOOD ...you da man...need wisdom..you and bOss and bull Hunter and FattyArBuckle..

4tf: "why not SKF call options?"

In my case, SKF is in a retirement account. SMN liking it there too.

In the options account, good idea but there have been better trades loke calls in DUG and puts on DBA. Your thought process agrees with mine however.

Bought some June 35 puts on FNM.

Dont mean you @nd ave or the others need wisdom..mean you all ADD wisdom..whew...LONGLIVE GS..$180 or bust

skype easy but not logical. read whole page of Nexalogic . I missed the bottom instructions when logging onto Skype. Click onto Bill5 next to Nexa name gets me onto Bills chat room

Socialization of mortgagas begins.

http://tinyurl.com/2ab7f2

Give them US Dollars (falling at 15% a year) for mortgage paper (falling at 25% a year).

The Fed is operating outside it's charter and ought to be prosecuted, with Ben in the slammer.

reverse logic works for the simple reason that the majority trades on logic...refer all back to Vad's blog, where he explains it much better than i can...(http://www.realitytrader.com/blog/)...

2nd,
I think the markets are closed tomorrow.

Aurator,
You can get approved for options trading in retirement accounts.

This market is really tempting me to buy some DOW puts but I'll wait until Monday, since with expiration some premium should come off.

Hopefully they can extend this rally into the first part of Monday AM.

Rob.

Aurator,

I may have answered my own question. Trading on SKF options looks pretty illiquid--low volume and wide spreads on most of the April strike prices I was looking at.

You bot puts on DBA. Gulp. I shoulda done that a few days/weeks ago. Instead I added some DBA Oct 45 calls today for about 2.05. Also added some GDX June calls. Sure hope I ain't premature.

Will look at FMN puts. Can it really be like shooting fish in a barrel like that one?

Not many industries are down today.

http://tinyurl.com/39jlp2

TLT within .66 of its all time high of 98.16 in January. Man, this IS like Japanese interest rates!

Bought SKF $107.25

Have a good weekend everyone...

Photogray.............../ Skype users.......

"skype easy but not logical. read whole page of Nexalogic . I missed the bottom instructions when logging onto Skype. Click onto Bill5 next to Nexa name gets me onto Bills chat room"

1. download software.......ok

2. login......ok

3. ..... then what??

can you direct me to the Nexa name menu...if this is the next step....

thx

Bought to cover NUE during the lunch hour at 68.40 from selling short yesterday at 75.5 for a nice little profit. Metals looked to be showing strength from morning lows were confirmed. All the shorts covering causing a short term rally for the weekend?

score22
look for nexalogic
next to his name I see a link says Bill5...click it and you will/should get new(chat)page

what do we have here? Is it shorts covering for the long weekend?

4tf: I think long dated calls on GDX will be great, but think it's a bit early, unless you want to enter in stages. I've played them before and it works well. Part of the ToG.

Holy Cow! I just looked and there's an option chain for GDP. ...

Fish in a barrel is the VIX calls.

I've got too many irons in the fire and need to sort some out. Good trading!

score22 look under find contacts or find skype users and type Nexalogic. I found his private chat a few times and he redirected me to the Bill5 chat until it sunk in for me

In obliging many hedge funds holding credit derivative swaps on corporations to settle, this causes them to buy the shares in order to become what is euphemistically referred to in the press as: "bond holder."

adding to RRPIX at the close...closing flat otherwise (thank you, OG)...

score22..I will elaborate after COB...about 43 minutes. But after I find nexa, and click onto Bill5 next to nexa's name, it takes me to a new page and then I sit there for tooo loong, sometimes 3-5 minutes before I actually log into the chat. By the way, CHAT . not make a call. Skype is primarily a phone service . the chats are different thru same software download. prepare to be frustrated a few times w. skype

2ndA

Re: RRPIX

Opened up a position two days ago (17.30)..doing my usual lurking!!..As always appreciate your specific heads up re TOG

Geez

...as i mentioned this weekend the conditions were right for blast off this week but follow thru next week is the question, i will be interested in the sector breadth results for the week

good trading amigos,
ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

p.s. nice head fake on Monday huh? it was such the obvious setup to burn some shorts ... are the BIGS getting too predictable?

;)

I do not see the underlying reason for euphoria in real estate / retailers / discretionary. Adding long dated puts.

It's a short squeeze in the most heavily shorted sectors. But also, some charts, like XHB, actually look pretty constructive with higher lows. Fundamentals and technicals do not always align. Or we could be at an interim bottom.

not sure i would call the buying in real estate (and financials) euphoric...may well go down quite a bit more, but let's face it, both sectors have been decimated, and any (LT) buying may well pay off...

Bill Cara has a true gift in seeing the markets. I thank you Bill for sharing your knowledge and experience gained through years of hard work and your willingness to share with us.

Again, thank you.

Enjoy the long weekend everyone.

Bought APR COF 55 puts @ $2.50

Closed NVDA calls from yesterday(+20%)

Holding SNDK calls over weekend as a hedge to my shorts(only long postion besides DIG)

30% cash

I am up nicely for the day after going long yesterday.

On Wednesday to respond to Vinod's remark,I said this:

News from trading room
Market may go down tomorrow(300pt drop)
But will be up on Thursday(200pt rise)
Because of three days of holiday weekend
Many people may not want to be short in market
During three days off. Any thing can happen in those three days
How market opens next Monday will be interesting

Vinod,
Your trading desk had a 50% chance, and got both of them completely wrong, LOL.

2nd said, "Vinod's original post may in fact be the way it plays out...think about it-> no faith in this rally? then no top..." -WRONG

Happy trading...

2nd-
I may partly agree with you on real estate in that maybe it is over half way through decline. However retailers / discretionary have not seen proper capitulation yet reflecting drastic change in fundamentals. Also technically XLY it at a very heavy resistance now on my timescale (I mostly use hourly chart for swing trading).

Heading to Minnesota for the weekend. Have a good one everyone!

Anyone here trade GSS?

Take a look at that move. I can't find any news, but there must ne something out there.
A couple miners made up moves at the close.

The rally in the financials was impressive, but still couldn't muster a close above the 50DMA.
Neither could the DJIA.

I bought some ultras into the close. If the XLF and DJIA move decisively through the 50DMA then I'll be forced to respect it for now.

Something is brewing with KRY. Up $0.22 today on larger than average volume. This on a day when most miners were hammered.

re RRPIX, et al. These highly leveraged ETFs, are they vulnerable at all to CDS and any of the other derivative domino effects, does anyone know?

Got a fill on my stink bid for some outside month XHB puts.

No doubt the charts look bullish as we close today, but I still believe the long-term for this sector is very bearish. Again, we have yet to see a bankruptcy in a major builder. SPF and BZH will not make it through the summer imho.

I've said this before and I will repeat it again until I'm blue in the face. No amount of talk about saving the housing market is going to solve the problem unless and until house prices return to affordable levels.

This was true when the bubble reached its peak in 2005, it was true in 2006 when the housing stocks rallied on chatter that we have "reached the bottom", it was true in 2007 when we heard that "subprime was contained", and it is still true in 2008 when we have almost daily initiatives for solving this crisis. And no matter how tirelessly those with a vested interest try to socialize the losses in bad mortgages, not until an average working American can afford a 20% down fixed rate mortgage on an average home -- a place we are not even close to reaching -- will this crisis be over.

Have a safe and happy Easter weekend all.

XLF: The 50DMA is also approx. at the down trendline. So crossing their is a clue, although it has retraced previous breaks.

I forgot to mention that KRY share price is now approaching UXG---doh!!!!!

Wow! I have traded GSS before. Anything under $3 is a very good bet. MFN was up $1! And I own it!

I have to believe based on this craziness that Jim Sinclair is absolutely right - hedge funds have been shorting the juniors and buying the seniors. This is now being unwound in a panic. Huge volume on both.

Unbelievable.

Newbie question here guys--

Can anyone explain how Ultra-short ETFs would respond in a October 19, '87-like scenario?

Would they sky-rocket or would they somehow fall, especially if everyone was trying to "head for the door" and get cash, no matter what . . .?

I appreciate any responses.

BTW to qualify my remarks - I rarely if ever daytrade (that is until I find a satisfactory way to do it algorithmically). I usually swing trade on a scale of few weeks and longer plus trying my best to stay on the right side of long term market trend.

I also like to maintain a relatively market neutral portfolio - shorting certain sectors against long positions in other sectors. Playing total market swings is not my style.

This week smashed me though because of general bias towards long side on PM and short side on equities.

GSS was one of the top 20 most heavily shorted AMEX stocks two weeks ago.

OK - here is the tell that today's rally is bogus: Russell 2000 closed down today and IWM was sold heavily at the close.

b0ss- after consulting with EEMt, vinod and i decided to throw a red herring out there...and it worked ;)

Sorry, yahoo has bad data on IWM for yesterday's close. It did in fact trade up today.

Ocam.....me too regarding "This week smashed me....,bias towards long side on PM". Not out, just down and a lil smarter I hope

Today's rally did seem manufactured like Bill's addendum suggests.

Financial firms using FED cash to buy each other's shares to lure us in.

They could run it a few more days for sure and then they'll sell their shares and buy Gold just before the next financial goes belly-up.

Rob.

If the rally was real we would have sliced through the XLF/DJIA 50 DMA/down trendlines like butter. Instead it bounced like bullets off of Superman's chest. Let's see if they find kryptonite over the weekend.

So far all I see is warning signs indicating a lack of solvency. I have two banks besides online accts, WAMU (WM) and BofA (BAC). Both are trying to get customers into longer term commitments for cash. WAMU has several offerings and BAC is trying a IRA CD/money market acct. with the restrictions noted in the first post of the day by onlineaces....6 mos.

I think the offramp panhandlers are being more direct. There's no pretense they will do anything but take your money.

2nd Ave : you stirring the pot are ye?

bOss made money following his own script, Vinod was being nice, or well meaning, and markets make fools out of us..the rest of the time ...its karma !!

This is not a logical market ( you already know that )...it reminds me of driving in college on an empty tank...but the reality was...the car made it, and doing it too many times on an empty tank..is presssing it. But it is what it is, for now.

Seriously we need to promote Vadyams essays..I saw online aces post a section..here..I know you have...putting it into practice is truly counter culture to human nature.

how many of us can act in a way inconsistent with our beliefs?

That makes this market hard to trade..better to suspend judgement..that is not easy for opinionated people. read soem of the posts..you can tell who is going to have problems in this market, and do very well other times in a smoother market.

Think a lot of people got hurt today temporarily, tough ..sometimes cash is better.

As long as we expect the market to behave the way we want/think...we gonna get hurt.

I wouldnt dare swing trade this market.

I've got some fat in the fire too Gray. Not too much as my intent was to scale in, but *sitting* while down is the hardest.....Takes huevos to add cash when the time is right. :>)

Luckily I was adding to GSS on the way down, and got a nice surprise at the close. Notice I choose to ignore WGW/UXG....

IWM..

Was there a bad tick at the cloase today?

Saw MOAB post Re IWM...I am showing a tick at 67.48 right at the close when it was trading above 68.00....

Did they SPIKE it down for Options Exp?

craig- no worries...planning to have a great time next week 'sky-paying'...enjoy the weekend...

EEMtrader,

"As long as we expect the market to behave the way we want/think...we gonna get hurt."

We're missing your comments since you switched to Skype.

This is the lesson I'm finally learning and is why I don't mind sitting out when I feel unsure.

How long do you all think they can keep hammering Gold like this? That's quite a two day drop.

Maybe it would be a good idea to start looking at other one-sided trades as potential squeeze situations.

Rob.

Back from a few errands after the market closed and see I picked up some VIX April 30 calls after the close. Then I remembered the VIX options trade ‘till 4:15 p.m. Duh!

Craig, follow the reasoning and agree, but aren’t the pros off for most of next week? Anticipating lighter volume, at least for the early part of the week.

I’ll 2nd Vadyams post. It’s a different world in this market, takes different thinking. Easier said than done.

Finger Lakes -
My take on gold intervention that there will be 2-3 series of attacks lake the last few days separated by a week or so of recovery to create strong bearish sentiment and destroy the technicals as much as possible. On top of that we are likely seeing margin calls at commodity hedgies and there will probably be more to come.

"As long as we expect the market to behave the way we want/think...we gonna get hurt." -EEM

Vadym explains this concept on his blog in his post of March 16th:

http://www.realitytrader.com/blog/

Highly recommended. Read this over and over:

"Do not fall into the trap of obviousness. Being right in a long run will not protect you from the losses today. Being right about the meaning on events does not mean the market hasn't priced those events in yet. Alternatively, market may be preparing to move in your direction, and it's way of preparation is to shake out prematurely taken positions. Market is doing its best to to move having as few participants on board as possible - and it's doing it by means of moving against the obvious. Price action overrides everything. We traders profit from price changes - that's the ultimate market language. This divergence is your friend, not your foe - it allows you to distinguish the Smart Money action from the Crowd actions and position yourself on the right side. This is major difference between the way traders think and the rest of population think."

Just trade the price action. If a stock wants to go up, don't fight it.

Seamus: I take it you're referring to my post re: XLF/DJIA crossing the 50DMA? I don't know if the pros are off next week. It *is* a chance to get up to the Hamptons for at least three days.....

Wouldn't lighter volume make breaking the 50DMA an even more difficult move? Or do you think it would still be balanced between sellers/buyers, but just lower volume?

Until this week, when apparently there was an unannounced rule change :>), lower volume usually meant selling or neutral movement.

I figured it was a relatively safe shot. Short just under the 50 DMA/downtrend line and look for it to bounce off and retreat like it has before....if not it's an easy stop. 50/200 DMA are both pointing down, so the trend is still intact. I like they gave me the weekend to think about it.

And don't think I didn't notice MON at $90.....did it get put to you?

Here is what a 60 year young trader here told me
He is trading for this company for over 25 years
If it is that easy to make money in market he would be seating on beach in Florida
Instead of working here at this age.

He also said all those people who are looking inside tips to make money are
Usually inside jail sooner or latter. Some may get away.

Best way to make money is working hard, learning the market and using your
Gut feeling and some time going against the crowd.

He is a gentlemen and every one here likes his opinion
I have tracked his opinion on paper and he is 50% of the time correct

Vinod,

"I have tracked his opinion on paper and he is 50% of the time correct"

How does that compare to the rest of the desk?

Regarding Proshares Ultra shorts, I understand that UBS is the counterparty to several of those. If they have problems like BSC (as some have posited) that may have a bad effect on the ETFs - I have no idea what kind of effect, but I can't think it would be good to have the counterparty go away.....

If he is correct 50% of the time and let's his winners run while cutting his losses short, he is successful.

Heck, if you do that, you can make money by being right only 40% of the time.

They do not trade on their own
They trade base on instruction they get from various mutual fund
This is not HB&B type firm. There is no M&A activity here
They buy for long term
There is more to it which I am not qualify to explain

they may be an agency desk.

There is something I don't understand about DBA. I even talked to a rep on the phone and still didn't get a clear, simple answer.

This is an entity that holds a variety of futures contracts over different months, for different exchanges--correct? Aren't they leveraged and don't they face draw downs? Let's say DBA holds a corn future bought at 5.20, and the same contact falls to 5.07--what do they do?

Right now I hold 6 DBA 45 calls for ave price of 2.87. Not a fortune, but enough to make me feel silly for not having done prior due diligence.

Zweig: Don't fight the Fed. Don't fight the tape.

Well, I did and it wasn't pretty. Just have to flank them next week and hope they cut into the Claymores set. Nice character building course before the long weekend.

~~

Did add 2nd bite RRPIX at $16.79 and DSKSX at $ 13.39. Now will waiting 'till there's a panic to top off the tanks. This is "the strategic put reserve", ToG.

~~

You have seen my posts about buying the juniors in energy and PMs, somewhat inspired by Puplava. The hedgies and naked shorts who trashed them, seem to be seeking the exits, either from cash needs or desire not to be prosecuted for naked shorts. They all enter the movie theater separately, and they all want out at the same time when the flic is over.

There are decoys: Media talking heads, Kudlows, Baldies (several), and the latest remote viewing guru Bove. Keep the faith, and for athiests, hold cash, preferably Yuan in a SD box or Swiss Francs (FXF).

Buy right and sit tight.

For the wavering, suggest you listen to the latest Schiff; a broken clock that is right every minute. Download the latest MP3 here:

http://www.europac.net/media/PeterSchiff_03-19-2008.mp3

Or here if that link is troublesome:

http://tinyurl.com/3bo9ze

Thank you all for the inspiration and advice. A fine group with a stellar leader!

~~

Very happy for 3 days to clean the garage and do repairs in 70 degree weather. ;)

Go34,

Great comments above.

Looking at TA for PoG, I really see little support before around 850 spot, which would be a regular 38.2% retracement from the swing started from the low of Aug. 16th.

Some traders will likely start buying at that level, and if the correction stops there, PoG will then consolidate and resume its path in due course.

Of course that this is of little worth in a seriously rigged market, but let's see.

Cheers mate!

Jim Rogers talking about how "insane" it is for the fed to bailout Wall Street where the top 5 firms paid themselves $39 billion in bonuses. Also talks about commodities of course.

n2son will love this.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vggsNLO01KN8.asf

niceguy: The PPT is no mystery and we all know the Govt is meddling. If this is news, I suggest you reconsider your position.

Go ahead and buy... somebody has got to reset the bowling pins.

- bottom is in...???? meanwhile we still don't know cdo and black pool costs? While foreclosures still on the rise. Bank failures starting to mount up? If we buy now we bail out Bear Stearns, citi and merrill to name a few will get bonuses for the hard year they had....who will sell us another perfect financial invention next year. These guys should be out of business.

EEMt- the more difficult it is to rationalize a trade, the more profitable it is (actually, i should say, the more profitable it CAN be...even i have trouble capitalizing on 'irrational' positions to the full extent of the move)...

why is trading against sentiment so 'reliable'- is it because logical thinking is so ingrained in our psyches (and in fact works well when not trading) that only willful de-programming can enable one to make the correct move? almost like a reflex you need to unlearn-> how many instinctively lean into a punch to deflect it, or instinctively jump into a short squeeze when it gaps up...you have to do it on faith the first few times, which means the majority will not do it...

niceguy: nice guy try. You are toast.

I suppose you are having dinner at Sam Stovall's home tonight. Big house, nice neighborhood, great car, landscaper; Inheritance can be good or bad. In this case, cluelessness is the dominant trait, but whether it helps or hurts will depend on how many other families mutate.
Son should have been named "Larry", and daughter should have been named "Georgia".

IMHO, this whole pending debacle derives from the top; a culture to succeed in stated policies no matter what the cost. The objectives WILL be achieved "NO MATTER WHAT THE COST." Thanks GWB.

We cannot have that kind of arrogant and clueless in power or we shall lose the republic directly. Mark my words.

Whether the next leader will save us is highly questionable, as they seem clueless to the problem and the risk.

But what is the "consensus"? I have heard many analysts saying that the bottom is in, and buy buy buy. I would certainly not say that most people think the market is going down, neither that they think it is going up. It is split. Here on this site, most people know the mess that we are in and so expect the market to go down, but that is not true out there.

Another bank failure could happen any time, and it can be in Europe or Asia, where the Fed won't prevent it. I do not believe that bonds are done going up either, not yet.

We are not at a bottom lol and almost funny to think we are.IRX starts the tale of woe. Major blow up coming next week - may wish to check the Brits..this war aint over and deflation will and is winning the day. The Fed is imptent against the forces that are against it..... always bet on deflation over time versus inflation. Just the way it is.

niceguy - good luck on that buying binge!
the talking heads, as they have been since last summer, are saying the bottom is in, and they may be right. I might agree that a short term bottom may be in, but generally prices go up when the market believes a company's earnings prospects are looking up. Maybe you will share with us just whose earnings prospect are looking up these days in the short term as you see it.... Some are pushing tech again, but for me, I'll know they're serious about tech only when I see them moving on CSCO and similar companys until then its all posturing. Electronic gadgets aren't going to be high priority items to cash strapped consumer in the near term.
Personally I wouldn't want to be margined up long on the financials either.
Everyone likes a good bull market when you buy aapl and make a ton of money and then double down and make even more money and equity prices don't go down. Unfortunately, one can only defy the market's law of gravity for so long! That's my two cents.

"I have heard many analysts saying that the bottom is in, and buy buy buy.."

that's reason enough to believe nothing has bottomed, as bottoms are marked by a complete lack of interest in buying...on the other hand, a ST bottom may in fact be in, as i sense little faith in this rally...i would tend to agree with nice guy's comment in that "I (also) see a large trading range market for 2007-2010 - both perma bulls and bears will lose as they chase the extremes," and traders will have the most to gain...

When you have to defend a worthless house of cards, how far will the politicias go?

We know, they will lie and pull in all favors until there is no more gettin'.

They are on their last magazine of ammo. We have heard enough BS not to buy it any more.
"Smack!"

The entire approach to solving the economic problem is wrong, and it's just a matter of time before it implodes. How, can they be so clueless?!

Can't blame the Keynesians, this is what that thought process dictates. What Bush pro'lly learn't in college. They will just find they were wrong from the get-go, and now they will pay the price. We ALL will pay the price. And they will be soooo clueless, they won't know why it happened.

If there was any time in my life I wanted to plan to flee the US, that time is now, and I am.
And I do have a plan.

!

"the more difficult it is to rationalize a trade, the more profitable it is"

My second favorite motto: "Discomfort and profit go hand in hand". First of course being "Trade what you see, not what you think" :)

I am glad to see that post hits home, it tells me it was timely one, considering the extremes to which the market takes this concept lately. Also, thanks to quotes I found couple mistypes and corrected them... one day I WILL learn English...

Happy Easter everyone!

politicians in the US are about as clueless as the police in south america...

No one knows if the bottom is in. I've developed that Zen outlook that EEM talked about once and Bill codifies as "just trade prices".

That being said, my guess would be a concerted effort is on to paint the charts as hedge funds deleverage en mass. The action in the golds today is very telling. Barrick being absolutely dumped and Golden Star up 25%!. They are taking off the leveraged long major golds, short juniors trade.

An inverted head and shoulders is appearing on the 60 minutes index charts which will suck in the perma-longs. How the market is going to rally as the dollar strengthens and commodities deflate is beyond me but stranger things have happened.

Earnings season is approaching and the reaction to the news will tell the tale.

Vadym,

I'm about half way through your book, _The Master Plan_ and like it so much that I ordered your _Techniques of Tape Reading_, which will be delivered tomorrow. I especially like the way you lay out the psychology of contrarian focus on unfolding market data. I've hit that point in my trades where what I think I know makes me more vulnerable than when I started and knew nothing! I aspire to the state of Bill's "floating like a butterfly through the markets" and find your style of presentation very illuminating. Thanks.

I'm not an expert, but I read one everyday and the last couple days was 'proof of concept'. Today he wrote: "Talking Head after Talking Head is being sent (I hope they get paid in more than wooden nickels) to Financial Entertainment TV to explain away the global crisis that is underway in capital markets. These people who are telling you “the bottom has been seen” are not just incompetent; they are co-conspirators in a massively engineered fraud to bilk the public."

I like Nice Guys, but they have to prove their record in times like this. That is not to say we don't have a tradeable intermediate bottom, but to assert more will require proof of infallability or a time machine. Some technical support would be good.....

ALOHA !!

Is there any other way the DOW could end before a long weekend? You can't have the sheep spooked too much! Keep 'em in the game ... YEEHAW !!

At the end of the day GIX did a nice pop up 15% since I bought this morning. It pays to wait! Accumulating still ...

I believe Jim Sinclair is calling for a POG correction bottom of $880USD. Be interesting to see what Goldman Sachs has been up to over at the TOCOM! Last I looked I believe they had something around 14,000 short contracts, which is some 75% off their year high of around 53,000 short contracts. There's a reason they've been covering ... It pays to be an "insider" on all your trades and backed by the US Taxpayer's safety net in case you fail! It's better than the FDIC!

The US Taxpayer has got to be the most financially abused door mat in the entire World's history! What won't we bail out these days? Is there a list somewhere? Oh yeah, I guess at the top of that list is "ourselves"! If we ever decided to bail out ourselves we could start by dumping the Federal Reserve and the IRS! What a monumental pathetic track record so far! The fact that in 1967 you could buy a brand new house in Southern California for $28,000USD and now you can't even buy a decent car for the same price speaks volumes to the failure of the FED and its supposed purpose for existing! Once again under-achievers are promoted to high levels of control and rewarded handsomely with fame and fortune ... Just look at Greenspan! He's finally grown some jalapeno cajones in his old age ... GUILT? Que lastima, y porque no se tiene estos quando el soy jeffe del Banco de Federal Reserve en Nuevo York! Pues digame mon del voshka! Aye, que pasa con esta palabra?

Thanks Bill for your many educational missives through the years as well as the many who share here on a daily basis or a not so daily basis!

A joyous Easter holiday ... I will be sipping a finely aged Pacific Golden Ale Kailua-Kona Brew and watch the sunset after a glorious day of tropical bliss!

Craig

Yes, it was the XLF/DJIA crossing 50DMA. I like your reasoning and I’m in your camp at this time.

However, a couple of nagging thoughts: Sentiment is still very negative which is usually bullish; Investors Intelligence bullish advisor dropped to 30.9%, the lowest level since late 2002. Thinking today’s move by HB&B (see Bill’s Addendum 2) has the possibility of getting some of that cash off the sidelines, especially if it’s rah, rah, rah, Monday. All three indexes have some room above before resistance. We’ll find out Monday, but I’ll be on the road.

One thing, a bottom is NOT in place yet IMO. We’ve haven’t seen real excessive fear and a capitulation. That will be ugly and that’s when we’ll have to fight those emotions.

Reference MON 90 Apr puts, I covered about two weeks ago for 195% profit when MON was up much higher earlier this month.

I kept the SNDK puts and will feel comfortable having them put to me. I’ll probably add to that position when we have the blood in the streets later.

Have to be up at Oh-dark-hundred, so calling it a day.

Happy Easter to you and your loved ones.

craig- speaking of track records, check out Vad's->11k to 200k within 2 years...

http://tinyurl.com/39ujjv

not as mind-blowing as Hillary's 1978 performance, but at least it's certified...;)

Now I get the depth of the sub prime mess
These 2 guys make it crystal clear

http://tinyurl.com/38mvxf
The Australian theory

cksteak
Sucked me right in ......good gallow's humor.

MikeNYC,

I went back to goldmoney.info today and it seems that site is no longer up. I've been seeing online dealers having no silver at all, eg Apmex, Tulving, CNI. What have you been hearing? Thanks.

Correction: no 1 oz silver coins

goldmoney.com is the bullion vault.

goldismoney.info is the metal-related forum site.

Both seem up.

It's funny you ask.

I went to the vendor of my favorite bullion bars tonight.

http://www.sunshinesilver.com/

Sunshine Mint bars are really nice because of the super shiny surface and rugged minimalist design. It's a tiny one ounce bar but it feels like you are holding a SLAB.

Anyway, I have purchased several bags of these 1 oz bars by flipping over to their site on the days of big drops, and locking in an order. The numbers on their site fluctate directly with spot.

The one negative is their spread is not as low as many bullion buyers like, esp. generic bars. Generic bar buyers are CHEAP, and they should be in that instument. But being able to lock in on a super-short spike down is nice and compensates a bit for the Sunshine spread.

The spreads the site lists are the same as they were last year, about a buck and a half. No widening there.

Here's what I think:

APMEX has posted to goldismoney.info that when silver drops they don't hold metal back, they simply get less in to resell. And when prices rise, they get more in to sell.

I saw the APMEX shortage message. I also saw them get thin last month, and then a week later, lots of stuff.

I suspect a confluence of vendors being previously reluctant to stock up at 21, and now people wanting to buy a lot at 16. And no retail customers selling back now because people aren't going to bring in grandpas eagles when they just saw 20 printed.

I want to sell a few pieces. But at 16.50? Naahhh. I'll wait.

Probably a perfect storm of events. But I don't think it is proof of any longer term problem with the large naked shorts being unable to produce COMEX bars, etc. Not that this situation might not be a symptom, I just think the retail channel will soon be stuffed with product as producers and vendors catch up. A shortage now at 16 will soon be sated at 18.50.

This retail shortage is just evidence of the overdone, piling on nature of the silver drop, and neither it nor the current price will last.

The silver surfer will return.

F6

re "lack of capitulation". I've been wondering if the repeated PPT intervention might not make events like double bottoms, capitulations, etc., harder to detect? It would be ironic if it backfired on them, prolonging the bearishness of technicians due to lack of technical confirmation of low points. I don't think we are even close to bottom btw, but I am curious what headscratching effects intervention may have on the technicians.

Just posted Nouriel Roubini's latest missive, its long but scary...as usual:

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

Bill,
I believe the gift for 39 years of marriage is paper.

trader,

Actually, it's lace, but paper would be a good idea. I hear that the Fed has a big sale on paper right now. :^)