hulbert out with a timely column about the double 9-to-1 signal:

http://tinyurl.com/39w5n7

(apologies to mr. zweig for getting his name wrong yesterday...what's important is i did have the right image of the good-looking guy in the expensive suit...)

Bill : Thanks for the email.

JRPauley: RE:your note on QQQQ and FXI from yesteray:

QQQQ and FXI are 'hot money' stocks among others, and there is about a 95% correlation between their movements.

When FXI was butting against a resistance line that I had drawn, and stalled together with a RSI divergence on a 30 minute chart it was a good signal to enter short. The Qs however was not quite against resistance, I jumped the gun and saw my mistake, which was when I posted.

The position moved against me when the Qs moved up to hit resistance and FXP dropped ( FXI moved up ), but did not hit my stop. This morning FXP is up 10%, sold it in pre-mkt at 110 for about $8/share gain. :) Its good to be a BI directional trader.

Also look at FXIs movement in the last 30 minutes over the last 30 days, and what happens overnight.

Probability + Technicals + Luck = :)

Hope this helps. Pick your spots in this market and lay in ambush...market is offering up gifts left and right.

EEMt- nice call on FXP- up 7% pre-market...

Any thought on the NOT- Noront trading halt? I know it is due to the Windfall Lake Project. Think we can expect some good news?

pre-market short squeeze in BSC underway...

2nd Ave: Thanks, second best thing in the world to wake up to ...:) .

You might want to sell FXP if you own it..FXI @ 128.34 is sitting right at the midway point between mondays rise and yesterdays high...food for thought..dumped mine first thing this morning.

Good Morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

-------------------------------------------------

To paraphrase the late, Will Rogers, "I never met a Caraista I didn't like." Please respect each other and have a great day.

Hi!

Intervention in PoG underway

Nice interview with Jim Rogers on Bloomberg. A real breath of reality admidst the phony euphoria being manufactured right now.

So Morgan Stanley reports "better than expected" results. Maybe someone on their earnings call will ask how much of their level 3 junk has been shifted over to the Fed.

Someone really wants PoG to be 980.

Options expiration day?

Maybe...

EEM, thanks - amazing. By the time I spend analyzing this you will be 3 trades ahead. I gotta learn to learn

USD at 71.68 but gold falling like a rock,
spot at $970 right now.

Cara 100 Update:

ADBE - Target Price Lowered from $50 to $43 @ RBC

Macro, maybe it's HB&B trying to convince us to trade our gold for their paper. You know the banks are beating the street estimates I hear, LOL

JRPAuley: I hope you dont wast $50K bouncing off the wall like I did last fall...thats the only reason I post...so others can save time and $$...there is no benefit for me..plus the unnecessary value judgements...makes you wonder...but RESILIENCE my friend...

Pssst..master 1 trade setup...keep it simple...till you are automatic with it...dont chase everything..small consistent profits, and drill , drill, drill tile it becomes second nature..that is if you really want to day trade..if you want to invest..and hold...ignore what I said. :)

Like MBA students...dont replace knowledge with doing..make $$$ while others comment...:)

Error: Thats dont replace execution with information

Where to now, folks? How is the market looking, what stocks look good?
http://wallastoninvestments.com/gold-stocks-steel-amy-winehouse-and-cold-war

Schizophrenic press releases....

Morgan Stanley says they are using the discount window for "normal" business, they wnt to "remove the stigma".............while OFHEO announces Fannie and Freddie to cut reserve capital surplus and increase available assistance another $200 billion.

But we're not nationalizing or socializing private debt...right? Afterall, we all know it's only socialism when it's for the people.....NOT banks. Banks are immune from loss.

When this is all said and done the US Gov will be the #1 mortgage broker ;-)

Cara 100 Update:

NUE downgraded to Neutral @ Longbow

Eastmain Resources:

CEO/Pres Don Robinson was the interviewee on BNN Power Breakfast segment this morning.

It's archived for a week.

www.bnn.ca

So it's official, OFHEO eases capital restrictions for Fannie and Freddie:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=apCFbdbCbpMY&refer=home

Try not to read Richard Styron's comments at the end of the article while sipping coffee - you may cough it all over yourself.

In any case, the real problem remains housing affordability. And virtually no one allowed on Financial TV ever mentions it.

2nd:

Hulbert’s analysis cherry picks data by including NYSE non-common stocks and excluding the NASDAQ stocks in order to get a “Double Nine-To-One” signal. All publicly-traded common stocks gave only an 8.62 ratio on Mar 11 –
see the second chart below – rather than the 90.0% reading he claims

http://tinyurl.com/26yasx

Psyop "red gold" in full force.

Talking heads on CNBC selling "the bottom has been put in.....all clear to buy stocks".

-------------------------------------------------

GS - Target Price Raised $186 - $200 @ Punk, Ziegel & Co.

JIM- thanks for weighing in with an adjusted reading...

EEMt- waiting for Buffet to announce he's buying BSC and MF...what do you think ;)

2nd AVe : This market is strong right now...2:1 advances/declines....Vinod may have nailed it again...

normally id panic when gold is in free fall like this, down to $961 at the moment

but heres my perspective:

1. US dollar is noting making a strong upward move
at the moment, something else is in the works
here.

2. for the first time in a looooooooog time i can
say that the JR mining shares that i follow are
not falling as hard as gold, they are at levels
similar when gold was $1000.

3. depending on today's price action gold could
test the $950 barrier. i expect it to hold
for a few days to fool everyone into thinking
its time to re-enter the market before another
plunge.

4. the powers that be want the best of both
worlds: a US dollar rally, cooling of
commodity prices to curb inflation and a rally
in the stock market with low low rates.
the cindarella story is not dead. they may
just get it for a while.

5. waiting for bonds to give the next signal, gold
is the ugly stepchild right now, and its not
giving a definitive signal other than
"look out belooooowwwwww"

6. ratio charts of gold stocks vs. gold will be
interesting after today's close. a shift is
under way that has been a long time coming.
Don Coxe has given a strong story to support
the longer term growth for commodity/PM stocks.
thiking long term is hard but critical during
these free falls.

good luck.

ALOHA !!

Yes, more POG manipulation please! Its been a long time since these takedowns have lasted very long. Half the time POG spikes down and then up too fast. Hopefully this one will take ...

A number of foreign central banks are becoming net buyers of gold, Eventually they all will have to be buying once "CONFIDENCE" is gone! At the rate the US Banks are getting bailed out now it won't be long!

A number of EU countries have sold off most or all of their gold reservess in order to pay "bills"! Its like a drunken sailor ... He sobers up for a day, but then he's back to drinking again! Some countries are flat out broke. Spain for instance has sold all its gold and the bills still keep coming, so whats next? Sell Barcelona? A few hundred years ago the Spanish were a World Superpower like Britain and France.

Britain's current PM, Mr. Brown sold half of the British gold reserves a few years ago for $300USD equivalent as Ex-chequer ... now he's PM! We see it daily now with failing US Bank CEOs! When did it ever become acceptable for incredibly poor performance to be rewarded? How do complete dolts get so far in life? It must be the "Who you know" part of the equation ...

I just did my first day trade. Bought SKF 111.88 sold 112.64. It was not easy.

kaimu when you say spain has sold all its gold,
you mean their max allowed for the year non?

and more interesting than EU gold sales would be which central banks or soverign wealth funds are purchasing said gold. i think it would be more telling.

Interesting read: 'The Fed Is Too Easy on Wall Street' - The Fed should insist on its prerogative to strictly regulate financial institutions in boom times, not just to bail them out when it all goes bad:
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/mar2008/pi20080318_697440.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

lessmore - And your profits were "unearned income" according to the IRS, right? NOT!

ALOHA !!

dr cosa ... Many people, even the "experts", like Gartman, have been waiting to get onboard the gold train. When POG was topping $900USD they were waiting for an "8" handle! When the POG was topping $800USD they were waiting for a "7" handle. I don't think enough US Dollar holders(private and government)will want to wait out a major correction. Confidence in paper isn't what it once was even a month ago much less last March prior to the August 2007 bank runs at CountryWide and Northern Rock!

Believe me ... NO FUNDAMENTALS HAVE CHANGED to warrant a POG takedown like we are seeing especailly since the US Dollar is also going down simultaneously. This is a manipulated takedown so some major shorts like Goldman Sachs can cover! This always happens on the US gold markets watch! In other words its a buying opportunity!

So, when is Visa going to start trading? It's just siting there with a bid of 61.20 and an ask of 61.21 with only 100 shares being traded so far.

The market is crumbling so they better hurry up and start trading it before it opens down.

Rob.

EEMt- vinod has been right on...as for me, taking my cue from you and switching from making comments to making money-> long live MF!! ;)

OldGoat:
IRS "unearned income" - yes, but it costs emotional capital, so in that sense it is earned.

It may be starting now. It's up to traded now.

Rob.

2nd Ave: LOL..sweet move on MF...XLF is strong gap...UP

Nouriel Roubini's latest article regarding the bail-out of The Shadow Financial System just posted:

http://jglobal.blogspot.com/

------

Kaimu,

all i can say is: i hope you are right.
long term i believe this to be the case,
short term with the US dollar not moving opposite to gold i dont know what to think until bonds give the sign.

lessm - More than emotional capital. Time. Energy. Expertise. Experience. Willingness to take risks. Earned in every sense of the word.

Added to GIX.V at $1.78!

OldGoat:
Your point is well taken.

So V opens at $16 premium to IPO price and is now moving down as people book their windfall.

lessmore - I forgot to add "Congratulations!"

Can money trees in fact grow to heaven? It was certainly beginning to look that way when considering the frenzied surge of many commodities to new highs week after week. But the past few days have seen commodity prices pulling back from their lofty levels. What should one read in this?

Follow this link to a short article on the outlook for commodities: http://tinyurl.com/3blcq6

exiting EEV

OldGoat:
Thanks. I did make half a point net in about 20 minutes. It feels a bit strange.

Did you see the person who bought V today for 199,000.00 per share? I wonder who that was. That's an expensive typo.

Rob.

ALOHA !!

FYI ... If you want to see how long this central bank manipulation game has been going for I published an article last year entitled "Revisiting 1978", where FOMC meetings were recorded like a movie script or a discovery hearing. Dialogue was recorded by each participant word for word. Back then we had the US Fed Chairman Burns and he openly discussed manipulating foreign currencies to boost the US Dollar. Now that is "transparency"! Where did I get such a document? Right off the US Federal Reserve's own website!

wow..the Qs are crumbling

ALOHA !!

dr cosa ... Here is abit of info on the massive gold sales of Spain last year!

READ ON:
Spain risks crisis over vanishing FX and gold reserves

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Spain's foreign reserves have plummeted to wafer-thin levels, leaving the country exposed to a possible banking crisis if the property market swings from boom to bust -- despite membership in the eurozone.

The Banco de Espana's holdings of foreign currencies and gold have fallen to E13.2 billion (£9.02 billion), equivalent to 12 days of imports.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/32j2ot

dr.cosa, that Roubini post is essential reading for anyone tempted to buy this market. Thanks for posting the link.

I tried to short V at $58 but IB wouldn't execute my order in a timely fashion. I hope it wasn't the same case for those who actually got in on the IPO and wanted to cash out!

It's coming off just as I called it. As soon as the Visa IPO was out LEH started dropping and then BSC and then GS and then MER.

I hope noone out there bought the IPO as it will likely fall quite a bit as we see how much real buying interest there is.

Rob.

I hope no one followed my lead on RJA a couple of days ago. It has dropped steadily since I bought, as per usual for me lately.

Finger, you called it on V. Nice.

I'm still of the mindset the rotation out of commodities into stocks is another bull trap.

Still holding puts on DBA and calls on DUG; just about the only green in the options account, but it's hard to say cuz I can't see through the smoke.

WGW headed toward a buy setup based on RSI.

Planted a little SEED this morning at 5.03.

2nd Ave: You holding out for 12.50 on MF..see options prices..

VE dropping quickly.

Number2son,
Thanks. I don't call short-term direction correctly very often but this just felt like such a set-up.

Like Craig or someone said, how does any of this help the overextended consumer take out more debt or not walk away from their underwater home?

I actually heard a news update yesterday where someone said, and it sounded alot like begging

"We just need more people to take out loans and more people to spend more to get this economy rolling again."

The truth is that everyone I know is closing out their internet and long-distance banking accounts and bring the money to their hometown local bank, where they know the people working there and can go down and get it personally if there's an issue. Those same people are cutting back on shopping, eating out, and even driving to build up as much savings as possible.

I could easily see them trying to rally stocks more though in the short-term, unless some more bad news comes out soon. Especially since they're desperately trying to make 50% drops in earnings "good news"

Good luck to everyone out there.

Rob.

EEMt- no, i bought pre-market at 7.55 and dumped the shares in two halves at 10 and change...

2nd..ah...nice move..:)

I think the whole emphasis of the market is one of anticipating the surge in short term yields on treasury bonds to above 2%. In the last credit calamity treasury yields declined precipitously and recovered to where the Fed cut rates.

But short term yields seem generally unimpressed:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

The U.S. Federal reserve is obviously counting on the imminent rise of bond yields as they had done in August of 2007, up to the set rate.

Interesting to note the decline in short term treasury yields into 2003 took quite some time, here there isn't any such step decline, it just goes straight down:

my famous loonie chart at stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/3anggb

So what happens after yields recover some? I'm not so sure that we've seen the bottom just yet, even though we saw 0.66% yields yesterday.

We haven't seen any change in the fundamentals, either so by and large the "trade" that gave us our famous loonie chart is still in vigour.

F6

Just thinking ahead, if the price of gold would drop to $899 or less, I would like to be able to cash out of some of my 401k money to buy gold. Does anyone know if this is possible. From what I have read, it does not seem possible in my case. I am 45. I am not looking for a loan. This is not a hardship case. A 10% penalty would not be a problem.

why can't you buy GLD in your 401k? If you don't like the ETF I know US gold coins are approved for 401k accts, no penalties, but they have to be held somewhere out of your hands

Re: Barrick Gold (ABX)

And Bill's warning of a breakdown in price...

a breakdown on the PnF chart:

http://tinyurl.com/3xqrov

stev1183 - How about rolling part/all of your 401(k) into a rollover IRA, either at IB (max flexibility) or elsewhere (Fidelity, etc.)? Or taking a 401(k) loan and using the proceeds to buy gold in whatever form you wish to stuff your sock drawer?

Bond yields on the short term treasuries just dropped 10 basis points. Oop. 0.64%.

SteveC - True, but could hold shares of CEF, for example.

Joey,
how do you determine the PO on a P&F chart?

stev1183 You could withdraw money from the 401k, but you would have to pay a 10% penalty as well as include the amount in your taxable income this year.

If you borrow against the 401k you would only have to pay interest to the 401k account (at least counterparty risk is low!). Be aware that many funds take a couple of weeks to process loans. All the above assumes it is a regular 401k account at your employer.

Gold basis has widened to ~$7 for the first time in weeks. As long as it stays like that, we'll see weakness in bullion.

stev1183 best bet is to set up a self directed IRA and transfer money from your 401 to it. You have checkbook control over your investments. Takes about a month to set up due to all the paperwork and average yearly costs are about $200

401(k) loans are a bad idea. Borrow pre-tax dollars and repay with after tax dollars. And if you are laid off, the loan is due in full immediately.

I know Gold can be held in an IRA or IRRA, but unless the plan offers it I don't think so in a 401(k).

Good savings vehicle to get matching funds from employer, but awful for choice of investments.

When you cash out the 401(k) you owe income tax and a 10% penalty. If you change jobs or are laid off, the 401(k) can go to an IRRA where you have full control of the money.

In my case, I did the IRRA, and then each year for 7 years converted a portion to a Roth IRA and this year will be the end of taxable IRA funds. Squeaking out the funds under Bush who at least got one thing right: low tax rates. No penalty other than on the funds I used to pay the income tax.

In the long run, I calculated this would be better assuming the Dem's don't meddle and steal my money (any more than govt already is through inflation.)

~

On a side note:

Interesting a 3 candidates for the presidency are clueless about economics. This at a time where the economy is the biggest threat. (At a time when a clueless wannabe can create a work out of fiction, become rich, and win a Nobel prize from his kronies. Deflecting huge resources away from the real energy problems into a spiral of needless regulations and malinvestment, that will ultimately cap off the depression very nicely in 2010. Not mentioning any names here.)

Oops I posted a Skype comment that OldGoat responded to on the main site. Sorry for the confusion. I was commenting that I don't think IB would allow the holding of physical gold in their IRAs. And OldGoat's response was IB IRAs can hold CEF.

What's going on with GIX.V? I've been taken to the cleaners on that one! It is performing relatively awfully compared to other gold shares. Perhaps it's just a case of "sell the news"? I stupidly averaged down on this one.

On a different note, I'm glad I listened to Bill re spot gold, but waiting to hear from Bill, Maromatics, FranSix, and others as to when to get back in. I still believe it's going higher.

Been following along now for awhile and thought I would contribute some. Sold short 50 NUE yesterday at 45.50, watching it drop today. I got shook out of my 100 GG short 2 days ago at 44.17 when I got nervous about it going up more before it would start to come down. Missed my AEM short that I had been watching to short at 80...now is 70. Still trying to get this market timing down.....a fine art. Thanks to this site I have been doing better and am getting much closer to making good entries and exits.

Looks to me that this morning was a great entry on DUG. I think it may have a one way ticket to a 40-handle over the next month or so.

re: GIX.V

From the appearance of the silver/gold ratio chart on GIX.V, we are seeing a stock that got ahead of itself in anticipation of the continued rally in gold prices. It is following the sudden decline in the silver/gold ratio. All of the technical indicators on the silver/gold ratio have a continued rise, but for the moment a pull back was in order. It IS a derivative chart, so it can change drastically if the fundamentals change.

stockcharts.com Silver/Gold overlaid onto GIX.V

http://tinyurl.com/2l9yht

Precious metals futures may have been directly affected by the Bear Stearns collapse, since MF Global had a scare, and they're a source for retail and independant traders to access commodities and forex trade. Once they were taken out, this effectively put the precious metals trade on ice outside of Asia.

However, with fed interventions, the bullion price took a back seat to the weak U.S. dollar rally.

The fear in gold stocks is jaw dropping. Gold is back to the price from two weeks ago and the gold stocks are being taken out and shot. There will be a great opportunity to pick up the good ones when this is over.

Pi cycle turn date does in fact coincide with weakness in gold once again.

Check this graphic out:

http://tinyurl.com/2pe65q

Dont jump to conclusions.

Pull up sector rotation /money flow on your trading platform. Check out Money flow for last 5 and 20 days.

Now ask..does this picture make sense ?
What side am I trading and investing?
What stocks to start picking for accumulation?

From Shark:

On March 6, I posted the following:

"A peek into the future if I might. Gold will, in my humble one, have a darn difficult time reaching the spectacular price targets that I'm hearing about, for two simple reasons...."

Posted by: shark_attack at March 6, 2008 4:26 PM"

To which Kaimu responded:

"SharkA ... good luck! I wonder how it is you are so sure? What are you basing this confidence on?..."

Mike added:

"See you at 1200.

Posted by: MikeNYC at March 6, 2008 5:23 PM"

So here's what's happening. The moment the Fed cut, gold and particularly the miners were spectacular shorts. Why? The trade was crowded with dumb money trying to make fast money on a big rate cut. Problem is, the dumb money typically has no one to sell to.

Also, how much more can The Beard cut? What's he
gonna pay you to borrow money already?

Bill...Congrats on the book, I'll be waiting for my complimentary copy:)

Chris

(I still say see you at 1200. Just not this week. -MNY)

Re: ER.TO

As you can see from this comparative chart, ER.TO was fully priced into the rally:

stockcharts.com Silver/Gold ratio with ER.TO overlaid

http://tinyurl.com/3dnjto

re visa ipo if the united states are in big trouble wouldn't there be people going bankrupt therefore not paying visa bills so why is this such a big deal???

cyderman:
There are 2 methods for deriving a price objective – which is just a rough estimate of a price target following a breakout – an ingredient for gauging your risk reward ratio.
The ‘vertical count’ method was used here in this Barrick Gold chart – for a short sale.

In the last column – the breakout column – there are 7 o’s (price movements down), with the box size , being 1: so 7 * 1 =7
Multiply by 2 : so 2 *7 =14
Subtract 14 from the level of the 1st o in that breakout column : 53 – 14 =39 the Price target

The following is a link to the Stockcharts site, and the chart school discussion on PnF price objectives.

http://tinyurl.com/2gz7v4

The authority on which I rely is Tom Dorsey’s excellent and very readable book, ‘Point and Figure Charting'.

Bond yield in U.S. treasuries decline further:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

0.54%

Compare Eurozone yields:

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

Hence, the fundamentals are intact, I presume the weak dollar rally has to do with net redemptions in commodities trade creating a demand for dollars.

Real men of genius. The Fed, in a new role.

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/03/real-men-of-genius.html

joey,thanks

Shopper if I understand correctly, Visa and MC just process the transactions and are not exposed to the actual CC debt. Banks are exposed.

I've been using puts on Capital One COF successfully as it has it's run between 40 and 50. Can't understand who the buyers are who run it up, but I'm glad they do. AMEX should be a bag-holder as well. Any other ideas?

After the irrational exhuberance subsides, I will look forward to riding these down.

The 950 strike April GC call OI is more than 3 times any other strike, except the 900's, with half the OI of the 950s. These expire in 7 days.

EEM, OK I give. Don't have a trading platform and can't stand the suspense. Where has the 5/20 day money been going?

shopper, i read somewhere recently that VISA makes money by processing credit transactions, not by actually assuming the credit risk in the transaction - & they will used all that money 18B$ ? - from the IPO to beat mastercard into the ground - VISA already has 60% market share, so this looks like a monopoly in the making...... so maybe it is a good investment..... NO POSITION

Bought SRS @ $101.30

If everything is so rosy, why are EEV and FXP on a tear?

JRPauley : Out of Materials and Telecom last 20 days....you dont want to guess where its been flowing into...the last 5 days..

b0ss: Agree; doubled down on SRS. Waiting to reload SKF.

EEM - Cons Staples is my guess.

My guess is financials and tech. Big beta is firming up.

Geckjob..yup..healthcare and FINACIALS. :)

Utilities

MOab..right on.. right behind is Tech..now what does that mean in terms of positioning...?

That's good since I have been moving into Staples past few days.

Geckojb..thats why you manage peoples money..its the #1 sector today..healthcare then staples...

So, does that mean we're on the last stage of the financial crisis and ready to start expanding again??

That seems to be what you're leaning towards saying.

Rob.

I would think to position short financials since this mess can't possibly yet be resolved.

In that vein, had a quick look at JPM chart and it's been a rocket the last 3 days from $37 to $45. Now RSI7 daily is over 70, Stochastic is up there and it's sitting on the MA(200). Also lots of gaps to fill? (If i understand gap filling correctly :)

And aren't acquisitions usually considered kind of negative in the best of times? Sure they only paid a quarter billion for BSC, but how much risk did they assume?

SMN strong as well as my "BLS" refiners FTO, TSO, VLO. Crack spreads had gone negative. For some reason retail price jammed.

Guess is going forward retail price will again float and permit expanding crack spreads. Big oil reduces refinery output when they can't make any money on the spread.

I've also taken the first bite out of RTK which manufactures liquid fuels from coal. Speaking of coal, the ETF KOL is being called black by both the pot and the kettle. Plan to buy as the Bollinger Bands and confirming metrics dictate.

Rob..no thats not what I am saying...

I think based on money flow, the worries have gone from BSC imploding to consumer and the $, and we are in early stage contraction ( no news there ). And if you are shorting and from capital allocation viewpoint... shorting XLB XLE may yield more than XLF and IYR.

XLF and IYR was yesterdays story from a % potential gain.

Financials I think are a bounce or maybe based on the ability to recapitilize borrowing short and lendinjg long.

I would take the rest to mean that the smart money is putting behind them the concerns of the credit morass and now preparing for the gears of the economy grinding down or more simply trading the recession. Just my opinion.

Seems contradictory: consumer staples and healthcare are places to hide while tech and financials will lead a recovery.

Financials might just be a recovery rally though from a deep oversold condition.

Geckojb...yup thats how I see it too based on $ flow..not newspaper clippings..

They are back to traditional main street concerns...knowing the FED is focused on the infrastructure and stability issues..

You are more green today if you short XLE XLB EEM ( proxy for oil & natural res )then short XLF or the Qs which are looking the strongest

I am with you EEMTrader. Materials, energy and emerging markets are looking very toppy to me, especially on the weekly charts.

EEMtrader,
Thanks. I see what you're saying now. The financials do seem to have a protective ring around them for now with the FED and Government pulling out all the stops to save them.

And the consumer is just swinging in the wind.

Good call for sure.

Rob.

Finger Lakes

You live in upstate NY, right? Forgot to mention it, but 2-3 weeks ago attended a small midwest bank conference. Nothing but troubled outlooks for most, but there was one bank (CBU) from your area which sppeared to be solid and in much better shape than others. Pays a decent dividend as I recall. It's on my list for the future, but not touching any financials yet.

CBU, a quick check shows RSIs across the board above 70 so it's certainly not the time. But I thought I'd mention it to you. Of course, doydd.

As it stands right now with the gold basis, we are ~$1.60 into backwardation, with the near futures price having gone below the spot price.

I find it expressly abnormal that a HB&B brokerage which gets a bailout from the central bank should use public funds to immediately set upon independent brokerages that have mostly retail clients in the futures and forex markets and attempts a massive bear raid on precious metals.

Look at EWZ today....

Seamus,
Yes Upstate NY is pretty lame this time of year but gardening season is coming soon I've heard of that bank for sure. I'll add it to my watchlist and consider moving some accounts there. Thanks.

At the conference did you hear anything about Canandaigua National Bank? It's privately held by a couple of families and seems stable but you never know. That's where we have most of our accounts.

Rob.

Thornburg Mortgage (TMA) being pounded. They are pulling out all the stops to save it but it may go under.

All this talk of the worst being behind us in the financial arena is total crap, IMHO.

It doesn't take much to change the mentality of the "herd". I think it's a brainwashing issue due to our exposure to Television and today's marketing environment.

As the Lemmings say: "Last one over is a rotten egg."

FL

Canandaigua National Bank? Nada, they weren't there.

N2son

There'll be days to pick up these ag commodity stocks. . . just waiting for them to come to us. Same with the PMs. IMO.

SMN + 7%

SKF -0.8%

DUG + 5.7

QID +1.5%

Well we all knew deep down that we didn't reach a short-term bottom yet because Cramer and the other talking heads are screaming that we have reached one.

The anti-Cramer trade has been one of the best of the year for sure.

Rob.

First bite out of TIE (meaning, usually, 1/3 intended position.)

This is the major lesson of this market because rarely can it be seen as clearly as these days. Do not fall into the trap of obviousness. Being right in a long run will not protect you from the losses today. Being right about the meaning on events does not mean the market hasn't priced those events in yet. Alternatively, market may be preparing to move in your direction, and it's way of preparation is to shake out prematurely taken positions. Market is doing its best to to move having as few participants on board as possible - and it's doing it by means of moving against the obvious. Price action overrides everything. We traders profit from price changes - that's the ultimate market language. This divergence is your friend, not your foe - it allows you to distinguish the Smart Money action from the Crowd actions and position yourself on the right side. This is major difference between the way traders think and the rest of population think.

Hi!

Having been away from my keyboard untill now, I cannot help myself but having my jaw drop looking at what happened with PoG.

Truly incredible.

I notice that, so far, PoG has completed, IN A FEW HOURS, 68,2% Fibonacci.

But in an rigged market, what counts for little I supose.

Unreal.

Merrill Lynch is dropping hard and there is some serious action in the puts!

Merrill MER in trouble. My Apr35 puts up 80%.

DBA puts up 65% on the day.

Of course most of my ingenious option
plays were wrong yesterday.

IRX >plunging< today! Down to 33% to 0.6% yield.

Having trouble finding opportunities/entries. Reminder to self: "Cash is a position."

LOOKING to go long here..not entering yet..

Moab..is something up in the credit markets..? anyone else know..? 10s just started dropping too.?

Just read about the changes to Fannie and Freddie on Calculated Risk. Namely the attempt to add up to $200 billion liquidity to MBS market and the lift the portfolio caps on GSE's.

The image that came to mind is someone trying to push a huge bunch of sausage links up onto a small and slanted shelf...

RRPIX headed for a 16 handle if TLT stays at the high of the day....

Haven't heard anything today about the credit markets, except that Lehman and Merril tapped the discount window last night. Just watching the price action, which is disconcerting. IRX is in waterfall mode, which yesterday's rally did nothing to interrupt. This could be the tell.

Thank you Trader Girl & Moab...This is weird...so much for the real Fed reaction..or set up for tommorow?

time to go long?

waiting for Trader Girls NZD/CHF signal..THE $ SPX just bounced from its pivot point..but that doesnt mean much...it can go back down just as well..

Its feeling pretty stuffy in the short space at the moment 2nd.

following Soros into WIND...

following Soros into WIND...

INTC/SNDK-> long positions...

Trader Girl ..yeah I see it..I just drew a declining trendline on NZD/CHF ..should we wait till it breaks that trendline on a 3 min chart?

Treasuries yielding 0.44%

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

Here is the 1:30 Briefing.com update.

"1:30 pm : The major indices fall to their worst levels as the financial sector (-0.2%) reverses into negative territory. Poor showings from Merrill Lynch (MER 43.41, -3.22), Lehman Brothers (LEH 43.74, -2.75) and Goldman Sachs (GS 171.15, -4.44) are weighing on the sector."

Now weren't we told just yesterday that Earnings from the brokerages were great!! These financial writers sure have short memories or they're just making it up as they go along.

Another blatant inconsistency is that the CPI said energy prices went down for February but Wholesale prices said that energy prices increased in February.

Rob.

NZDCHF - Could someone please post a chart link? Thanks!

I would get out of those longs 2nd Ave..this is not pretty

So are you guys really thinking this is a head fake to set up a rally attempt that will last a few days or are you just taking a gamble thinking we already hit a short-term bottom?

Rob.

breaking 12,200...

Rob..not thinking that far...looks like it wants to go down...

Following 2nd_Ave's lead...Just bought April calls on SNDK/NVDA

Still holding SRS from today.

I see a RSI bullish divergence on the SPY o the 5 min chart...

what can i say...i love it when it gets ugly, either way..

I'm thinking the action in MER and IRX may be the "tell" that yesterday's rally is a fakeout but just watching the broad market to see it's verdict.

This market is akin to being in a rowboat in a choppy seas.

If you look at options on DIA there are a few thousand deep in the money calls selling for every month from April until December.

What does that tell you all out there?

Is the big money selling the calls thinking the indexes will crash or buying them thinking we're going to rally?

Rob.

CEF, sold all yesterday. Buying back half position today in GTU.

Plan is to but back the other half 60 to 90 points down if this occurs. Buy weakness and sell strength.

Adding a bit or RRPIX.

Isee a bearish divergence on the $ VIX...

3 pm Et rally on deck IMHO

Zenob..sell your shorts

Ugly is what you're getting 2nd!

Took a haircut but I was ahead of you. I had already started paring back my SKF when it was peaking out.

MER suing SCA a bond insurer. Sketchy, but I'm guessing SCA owes $3B to Merrill for failed derivitives, and they don't have the money.

I miss calculated the strength of the rally Tuesday BADLY. My first limit order was set at 122. Blamo right in the foot.

Zenob: U DA MAN..iyou should ..its your money..:)

Thanks EEMT, out of SRS $103.50 (from $101.30 today)

BosssMAn..nice move !! sorry forgot you were holding shorts too..

If only my limit order today had filled. It got within .99 of filling. lol

I could have broken even on the day.

go long Zenob..Be BI..its very acceptable in this market..

where is the volume?

went ahead and added some sndk with a tight stop. Let's see if they rotate anything into techs.

BARRICK FLATLINE at $46 most of the day
How do they keep a stock at a certain price for so long? Seems to be maniuplation?

Barrick ran out of momentum today. Traders don't want to sell everything at once. They will come back tomorrow.

Barrick looks like the FNM(Fannie Mae) flatline of the day...

and stopped out of SNDK. I'm done for the day. lol

What signal are you looking at to go long now?

Just the opposite side of the day's movement?

The way I'm thinking is who will want to hold long over the three day weekend??

Or are you guys just expecting a pop tomorrow?

I'm trying to figure out the swing trading you all seem to do.

Rob.

Zenob..sorry..Still holding my FXI, 70 cents above the 125 strike price...

MER is about to keel over....

I think we just went long for 10 mins then everyone bailed out for another ride down...

PPT evidently on coffee break. This is just a repeat of the last 420 run up; all given back in a day or two.

Bear market with primary and secondary trend indicators pointing down.

My own fault. I pulled the trigger too soon Tuesday and set a limit order for SKF at 122. It went down, missed my second limit order and went up to 125 where I considered selling it so I could ride it down and back up again, before I made my mind up, it shot down again. Then I set a limit order for today that it missed by .99 then shot back up on me and faked me out into selling thinking it's going to rally, then it tanks back off again. Just not my week. lol

I have a rising RSI bullish divergence on a 5 min chart...but price is a $1 lower...

Are traders dumping materials or what? SMN is up 12% today.

Counterparty risk strikes Merrill. Like we have been talking about for months. What a great community this is.

On the flip side, I didn't sell ALL of my SKF so at least there's that. lol

Let sleeping dogs lie?
The market is breathing like a hound snoozing on a sunny day. It is inevitable that at some point this hound will awake… then it may get more interesting. For now the market rhythm continues.
On a 60 minute chart the last 6 weeks shows the rhythm. VIX lows, SDS lows, TLT lows mid-week; VIX highs, SDS highs, TLT highs turn-of-week. Traders are apparently fearful of holding longs (beta) through weekend- FOR NOW.
This week to date the TLT is holding higher vs the VIX and SDS (like last week). Something to be aware of. I keep TLT, VIX, SDS together on the screen- divergences worth noting.

You all going long made me nervous so I sold my Dia puts for a 20% one day gain. I can't complain if I miss out on some return if it tanks again tomorrow.

Rob.

Sorry Rob..i need to shut up..blame it on Trader Gurl..:)

If you buy a dividend-paying stock after 4pm on the day before the xdate, do you still get the dividend; or do you have to own it at 4:00 exactly?

One chunk DGP added back, along with first bite DXKSX. Dow down 300, 300 more tomorrow?

Lost my Aussie call play, foo.

I really got thrown for a loop today. Nothing drastic, but I hope you all fared better than I.

bOss..you on skype..I think I am going to log in and use it..taking up too much space here..Zenob/2nd..you on there?

Wow. I didn't watch the market after the first hour of trading. Absolutely amazing. Dow down 300.

Just nuts.

Yesterday, everyone on financial tv was saying this was the bottom and the Fed had saved the day.

Now we have "rumors" that Merrill is going to lay an egg. Will they? Who cares. I won't trade rumors.

Cash remains king.

Never used it, I will try in a few. I moved to my laptop for a little while.

Bought DIG @ $86.25

I'm almost always on Skype. easy to keep tabs on everybody that way.

From jsmineset.com:

A friend at UBS tells me the following:

“Bank of England officials have cancelled trips outside London. HBOS PLC stock is down 15%, could this be another run? Gordian Knot is in danger of losing it's AAA rating from S&P. It was founded by Stephen Partridge Hicks and Nicholas Sossidas - a pair that invented SIVs in the 80's.”

----

The bank of England officials cancelling trips was publicized this morning I believe. The reason given: "to observe the situation".

Jim Rogers video:

http://tinyurl.com/3764o3

re Moab's post on BofE:

Faber recommends shorting the pound...I tried it and was nipped.

Perhaps the time is right?

Moab :who is HBOS?

Old Goat: If you want to see the correlation between NZD/CHF and the spy ..its clearer on a daily chart.

You might want to try just the swiss franc and gold chart too.

Any conclusion you draw from it and act on is...er...up to you...how you want to incorporate it..:), as we learned today dont let the 3 min chart jerk you around...

Short term U.S. treasuries are now @0.41%, below official Japanese interest rates. Its very clear at this point that the Fed was anticipating sell off in short term treasuries and a rally in the markets, especially the dollar, with its 75-point basis cut. But they are now facing the looming possiblity that their own interest rates must be cut much further to be in line with treasuries.

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

"But as the dollar continues its fall, the carry trades of a second, much larger group are threatened, David Woo, an FX analyst for Barclays Capital, said. Asian corporates are holding a series of deeper yen-carry positions in the form of of long-dated options, which amount to about $300 billion. They are more sensitive to forward exchange rates than spot forex prices, but are still vulnerable to the sub-prime meltdown."

Times UK

http://tinyurl.com/2l7kwt

The possible effect of an interest rate cut in Japan:

Times UK

http://tinyurl.com/2o3fbo

¥/$ trade poised at its uptrend target:

stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/2s4jga

EEMtrader,
Don't sweat it. If I would have held until the end I only would have gotten 5% more. I'm very happy with 20% in one day, especially since I don't usually move that quickly.

But yesterday seemed like such a golden opportunity I couldn't resist shorting it. And with all this crazy volatility I'm happy to be safe in cash again.

At this point I doubt if I'll do anything before next week unless something big happens tomorrow.

Good trading everyone.

Rob.

Watching the BSC story unfold. People are asking why is the share price so high given a buyout at $2 a share? Bond holders are buying millions in equity to save billions in debt if BSC goes bankrupt. Buying BSC equity gives the bond holders the abliity to vote Yea on the JP morgan deal.
Basically it is a fight between the current shareholder and bond holders. The last leg the shareholders have to stand on will probably be taken away as the bond holders aquire voting rights. As an observer, this has certainly shaken my views of the market. The only thing that I knew was to stay well clear of finicials during this sub-prime/recession/finicial collaspe. Unfortunately, this thing has a long way to go, and the collapse of BSC is just the start. IMHO.
Anyway, as the bond holders acquire more shares you can seem them get stronger and there ability to manipulate cheaper shares increases. Watching the trading today you can see the bid price stay very constant as the bond holders buy more shares then, a huge dump of shares to, "shake the tree", acquire more. Just curious if most people think this is going on, since it show a classic example of HB&B manipulation.
JMHO

HBOS is a british mortgage bank:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HBOS.L

Does anyone know of where to get charts of mortgage rates?

Rob.

MMoab..thx..this is too bizarre..with TMA and MER ..look at the XLF/IYR how little they declined....then look at XLE and FXI..nice looking potential double bottoms..or failures.

There is good exchange and exposition of trading ideas and concepts here today, even with continued volatility and uncertainty. Thanks for the exposition EEM and everyone else.
Peace.

EEMt- can't skype at work...

Benefits of being the network administrator. If I want to use skype, I can most certainly use skype. ;-)

re Barrick
You mean the way they are holding Gold flat at 940-945 right now?

This gold action is not normal or natural. I now think that strange, long, shallow uptrend last night was simply to tempt as many longs as possible to load up before the smashdown at 8:20.

I also think it is highly suspect that it dropped something like 5% so fast and then stopped EXACTLY at 945. Usually when things move so fast there is some overshoot and pullback. And it just happens to come to rest 5 dollars under the strike price of a massive OI in calls that expire next week?

Sure.

The beginnings of another UK bank run?

HBOS Says Balance Sheet Strong as Shares Sink

http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingFinancial/idUSL1976039620080319

EEMt, HBOS is one of the Big Five Uk Banks , Halifax-Bank of Scotland , Barclays, HSBC , LLoyds and Royal Bank Of Scotland. It is very well known over here in the UK,any adverse news would cause serious reverberations and get the attention of the public in general.

Bizarre is right. I think there is mass confusion on what to do here. That is the only way I can explain it. It seems like there was enthusiasm for buying the intraday dip today for all of 15 minutes and then they quickly gave up. Haven't seen that lately. Bond market keeps fleeing to safety; dealers still saying 'no balance sheet'.

MER got pounded an extra $2 at the close. BIDU