mean reversion may apply as well to the number of daily posts...will definitely pick up today, though...

time to press the short side...

sundance- nice move in FXP...

The Euro/Dollar cross continues to advance. Since market conditions have held firm and no interest rate changes have occurred in the Euro zone, then you can see this trend continue:

stockcharts.com:

http://tinyurl.com/2o2drj

We have had a crossover event in the Silver/Gold ratio. This ostensibly indicates a change in trend, that silver will advance against gold and that speculative money is going into the precious metals sector:

stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/3y4ajz

Gold prices continue to advance against junior precious metals shares:

stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/3bof4u

Anybody with an account in stockcharts.com can put in their own variables and test market conditions against their own stocks.

g52- don't see it yet, but fear could overtake the global markets anytime today or in the next few weeks...usually accompanied by spikes in the long bond..

FranSix:

"Gold prices continue to advance against junior precious metals shares:

stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/3bof4u"

Golden Band Resources GBN.v is the proxy for junior precious metals shares?

We may witness parabolic moves in gold & silver. Esp. silver....I see extreme market prices in silver contracts well over 6% today:

SI.N08.E
ZI.N08.E
QI.K08.E

For a little light reading on the software "Drupal"
See the Wiki link here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drupal

Good Morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

-------------------------------------------------

Have a fun day and hang on to your hats.

2nd_Ave...

Wait to press the short side..My crystal ball is telling me bounce at the open...

Could be wrong, but I will wait to press...

http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=31320080667

joey,

GBN.V just happens to fit with the charts very well, so it serves as a good example. Its just by circumstance that I bought these shares and began to notice that the chart reflects well on gold prices and the silver/gold ratio as well.

Here is my junior watchlist. You can use any of these shares as a variable in the charts I posted to test against the fundamentals(added a couple of names):

AGG.V ANI.V ARU.TO BVG.V BPM.V BXX.V CBR.V CAN.V DMM.TO FRG.TO GBS.TO GCX.TO ICI.TO ITH.V JPN.V KXL.V MJS.V MMM.TO NGG.V PLG.TO PRZ.V R.V RGD.V SDR.V SLI.V TLG.V WGW

2ndAve

Seeking your thoughts on RRPIX entry point(s) as work constraints for today and tomorrow will not allow me access to market actions..initial thoughts are to scale in small position by end of this week..thoughts? thanks per usual

Rotating montitors to portrait view to trade this market...:)

is the skype chat up yet?

g52- dollar-cost averaging in 20% increments usually works for me...RRPIX trades EOD only, so you only need to check on the market/long bond shortly before the close to make a decision (trading for RRPIX closes a little earlier than the market itself)...(i only have a 40% trading position in the fund myself...would expect TLT to be well above 98 before it's time to TOG, and i'm sure you would see noticeable posting on the subject when that occurs)...

bg- i'll take your advice, thank you...

in keeping with the topic of the day, moving UUP, HGD.TO and DZZ to the top of the watchlist...

(already have DUG at the top)...

SPX - My Calculated lows for S&P 500 index today:

1294.45

and if we breach that then we'll go down to

1277.98

let's see what happens...

RRPIX: I think the cut off for orders is 3:30 EDT.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

The law of unintended consequences?

Robert Peston is making a name for himself these days by actually talking sense.

Money center banks now have a huge incentive to call in illiquid collateral from their insolvent debtors (hedge funds) and pass it onto the Fed for liquid treasury bills. Looks like a stampede to use all of the latest $ 200 billion tranche.

The end result would be to throw the leveraged funds under the bus but save the money center banks.

Today may be the day of reckoning.

Bill
What about when the clowns convince those propaganda machines to print a whole lot and mean nothing???????
At least the size of the numbers are staggering!
Is that the big red light bulb blinking?

(8:21 AM ET) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Troubled lender Countrywide Financial Corp.(CFC, Trade )said Thursday that mortgage loan fundings for February were up 17% to $26 billion from a month earlier. Countrywide said average daily mortgage loan applications were $1.9 billion for the month, down from $2.6 billion in January, and its mortgage loan pipeline fell $3 billion to $48 billion. The Calabasas, Calif.-based lender's loan servicing portfolio grew $1.6 billion from January to $1.48 trillion. Countrywide saw its share price rise more than 12% earlier this week when the Federal Reserve took action to add more liquidity to the market for mortgage securities. Shares of Countrywide closed Wed at $4.75.

Well, I completely missed yesterday's drop. Indeed, just as I posted a comment that we would test 1340 on the SPX, with 1330 as support, the markets went into freefall.

If I had time to trade yesterday, I may have went short with a stop at 1333, but I didn't and so it goes to the bin with all the other "woulda, shoulda, coulda's".

My guess was based on what I thought might be the beginning of an extended rally based on the anticipated drop in Fed Funds rates next week.

Now it looks like we keep going down to explore the early week lows. Sheesh, you can't take your eye of this market for a second.

The precious metals trade feels crowded, to me.

At some point in the not too distant future, gold and silver will back off A LOT. They take the stairway up and the elevator down. Just one person's opinion, as always.

Those of us who don't have Skype surely appreciate any who hang around here to provide the real story. Thanks.

Paulson to speak @ 10:am -

There it was one recent morning, a Sewer/Water muni bond paying something like 5.85%, maturity in about 10-12 months! Sounded to good to be true, still rated AAA, but on watchlist to downgrade to A. Someone throwing out the baby with the bath water?

Ahh, but then I noticed it was Johnson County Alabama! Last weekend buried somewhere in the middle of Section A, B or C in the WSJ, I had read Johnson County Alabama had used derivatives to leverage their cash. Yes, derivatives!

Guess what? They didn't know where the money would come from to pay off their bonds in this illiquid market. Even though it was a revenue bond (source sewer) which is usually reliable, I let this one go by for someone else to grab. Checking this morning, someone did. It's gone. Caveat Emptor!

On to today's roller coaster!

Congrats to Billysundance, Sio2 and anyone else gutsy enough to buy FXP when it dropped on Tuesday.

Great Trade!!!

Rob.

SRS off at 118...

DJIA down 200, few bids->the weak hands can't handle the supply

Out of BSC short. Covering short for profit @ 54.30

Closed 1/3 of FXP position at $102

closed another 1/3 at 101.87

T-O-G thoughts. It's early, but TLT now at 95 handle. Besides, RRPIX, may start looking at puts. Expect it to continue direction as buyers leave equities.

what's left in the bag to prop things up...does anyone see -1000 for the DJIA? vinod?

My data is 20 mins delayed but it looks like GDX gold miners is holding up amidst a general equity sellof.

2nd
it is 10000

i have missed this train
should have brought FXP yesterday

still learning and doing paper trade

"If money rates are now advancing with the increasing demand for funds from merchants and manufacturers and yields declining with the advance of security prices, speculation on borrowed money is becoming unprofitable at a rapid pace. Businessmen are now in many cases selling securities in order to get the added capital necessary to do a greater volume. Shrewd speculators are selling stocks which no longer carry themselves. This selling deals the death-blow to the upward movement. Once under way the downward movement tends to gain momentum. Just as speculators are enabled to pyramid in an advancing market, so are the stubborn bulls forced to sell in a declining market. Their margins exhausted by the fall of prices, they are sold out by their brokers. Forced selling brings still lower prices and exhausts the margins of still other speculators. The process continues until yields are again well above the cost of money and bargain-hunters with ready cash once more stem the tide of liquidation. If a bull market goes far enough, carries yields low enough, it must topple of its own weight. Similarly, if stock prices have gone low enough, even a moderate relaxation in an 8% money market will inaugurate a recovery."
-- "The Art of Speculation" by Philip L. Carret

vinod there will be other trains headed that way, mostly slower, but same direction. Then the occasional train (T-O-G) headed the other way. Patience.

Infill drilling update from Geologix (GIX.V) today looks positive. Disclosure: long GIX.
http://tinyurl.com/2u2e25

If you look at the options for TLT, there is way more open interest in puts as there are in calls. In some months there are 10X the open interest in put as there are in calls.

It seems like a very one-sided trade, making me think yields still have a long way to fall.

Rob.

Is it not true that there may be a lot of short positions in the juniors right now? Could those unwind soon?

Cleared the remaining FXP at $101.40. Not wanting to puch my luck. The clarity is not there and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a ST reversal given the size of this mornings drop. We all know what happened to the last people who pushed their luck on FXP when it went over $100. I'll consider reloading with a 90-handle later today.

Still riding DUG and looking for another opp. to sell calls. Looking at the $44 strike as it is on the other side of major resistance for DUG.

FingerLakes You've got a point there. Kind of matches up with yesterday's posts reference hedge funds short treasuries.

BSC getting smashed again...wow something has to give soon...

ONE is getting a boot in the head, down over 60% from yesterdays close.
TORONTO, March 13 /CNW/ - 01 Communique Laboratory Inc. (TSX:ONE) today
announced that the judge in its patent infringement case against Citrix
(NSDQ:CTXS) has issued a memorandum and order staying the case pending
re-examination of the patent underlying our claims. The court vacated all
scheduled hearings and conferences and will hold all pending motions in
abeyance, with the exception of 01 Communique's motion to show cause.
"We are prepared to proceed with the re-examination process with the
United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). The technology underlying
our patent is very unique and has already gone through a vigorous prosecution
process prior to the granting of the patent," said Andrew Cheung President and
CEO for 01 Communique. "We expect the re-examination to be successful and plan
to continue the process to trial and if necessary any appeal by Citrix. We
view this as another procedural tactic by Citrix that buys them some
additional time in order to delay the trial. We are committed to staying the
course on this infringement action against Citrix and we do not believe that
their delay tactics will ultimately be successful. We believe we have a strong
case and will continue to aggressively pursue this litigation on behalf of our
shareholders."

Pursuant to the patent infringement case 01 Communique is seeking:

>

01 Communique will continue to evaluate its options with respect to the
Court's order.
As the re-examination process continues we will continue to build our
business based on our remote wake up and access technology with new products
that will help to enable the virtualization of the desktop PC. Virtualization
of the desktop PC is expected to be the next major growth area in the
evolution of the PC. Our technology bodes well for this market.

BG getting pummeled again.

Out of INTC 22.5 MAR puts @ $1.55(from $1.25 yesterday)

100% cash right now...

vinod- don't waste your time thinking about missed trains...there's a new one every day, usually with an even nicer destination...

I have a great report from IVY Asset Strategy fund on coupling/decoupling in emerging economies. I really like these guys and value what they say. I am not fond of most funds but this one is a home run and as I have said before managed much different than anything else out there. Here is a summary of what they think:

"Let’s summarize what we believe regarding the coupling versus de-coupling debate":

• Economic de-coupling is real and will likely accelerate.

• Financial market de-coupling will likely occur, but is currently undergoing a major test that will last awhile longer.

• Eventually, economic de-coupling and the strong underlying GDP growth rates in developing countries will likely focus global investors on the declining correlation between emerging and developed financial markets. It is important to remember that our views on coupling versus de-coupling fit into our global macro themes.

These themes willcontinue to drive our portfolio allocation.

So, what does all of this mean for the Ivy Asset Strategy Fund?

• We continue to hold and opportunistically add to equities and bonds that are supported by the global macro themes and the de-coupling arguments.

• However, given our pessimistic view on the U.S. economy and the potential negative impact on the markets, we remain cautious near-term. We will continue to use futures positions on certain global markets to reduce the downside risk to the portfolio.

• Gold will continue to remain a significant component of the portfolio.

• Currency forward contracts will continue to be used to remain short the U.S. dollar.

• We will continue to hold cash as a defensive measure.

• We will continue to avoid the CDS market for the foreseeable future, even though we are concerned that credit spreads are not finished widening and default rates will pick up.

EOM

honestly, i think it's going down...pressing the DUG/SMN trade for now...

Paulson now on Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV#

I still can't believe gold stocks are in the green. I can't recall ever seeing that in this kind of general sellof.

Woule you go long into the weekend in equities in a market like this?

(actually, for anyone not already short, i think 100% cash would be the vehicle of choice->it would be like taking the fly-over/bypass route to the bottom- seat back, cruise control, avoid the carnage...why ruin the trip worrying about timing entries into the ultrashorts)...

2nd,

Im looking for a 2000+ drop for the Dow, but not in one fell swoop.

These crooks at HB&B have more BS lines than a door-to-door vacumn cleaner salesman, and they'll use every one in their arsenal in a vain attempt to save their sorry @sses.

The more I watch them work, the more convinced I become that this crash is going to be a drawn out, protracted one.

Just MHO.

Regards

Gold futures 1.000,20

I remember gold stocks going up while the general market headed down in the first half of January, before gold stocks joined the plunge down. Plus spot gold is less than $2 from $1000.

After piercing 1294.95 we are heading down to a low of 1277.98 on $SPX for either today or tomorrow....b/c YEN is very strong and is in a continuing uptrend.

The attached file is a subset of the FTD data for December 2007 provided by the SEC on their website. What is interesting in this data is the patterns, not the company, not the number of FTD's, the patterns.

These companies go an entire month with little or no change in the FTD level. We have no idea when the FTD was created and at what price but clearly no intent is made to close out the failed settlement. In some cases settlement will never happen because the stocks do not trade.

1. Without a 15c-211 it is illegal for a market maker to enter into a bona fide market making transaction. If these fails are associated with such securities, and are market making exempted trades, they are illegal trades. How many trades such as these take place every day, market makers committing fraud?

2. In some cases the FTD levels reported have single odd day events that make it appear that the data may in fact be inaccurate. If we can see it in this subset, where else do these flaws exist? Does the DTCC have a system problem?

3. Where are the regulators? Does the industry recognize that such trades are being ignored which is why they take place? Could it be that the SEC overlooks the nickle here, dime there, and allows such to add up to millions in fraud as we witnessed in the mutual fund fraud?

This data illustrates a systemic issue that continues to go unrecognized. Investors are buying air and regulators find no reason to hold Wall Street accountable for such. these trades never should have happened yet they not only took place, Wall Street sold counterfeit shares and collected a commission for doing so.

UPDATE: I have taken the Data for October and December 2007 and compared certain companies. Look to the patterns and look to the duration common trades fail. If there you see no October data on an issuer it is because there were no fails above 10,000 shares reported in that month.

To see the file you need to link here;

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/229

SteveC--First half of January, eh? Guess my memory isn't what it used to be. Still, amazing. The question we have to ask is, what would it mean if they didn't follow the market down?

yvrapx, thanks for ONE, in at .345. You were faster than my broker's alert by half a hour.

will gold reach $1,000.00 per oz?? will crystallex recieve the final permit to actually put a shovel into venezuela GROUND. well a lot of folk and large co. are holding a pile of this spec.stock. good luck to the gold believers. russty

Does the community still believe PM's are coupled to this market? As I understand Bill's ToG, the idea is to wait for an entry point to short bonds and jump into gold. Is everyone sure gold is going to wait for them? Not sure I completely understand the ToG theory I guess. I think I'll stay long GLD/SLV as I seem to worry more about missing the upside than missing a brief downside. If anyone has opinion I welcoe it, as my stock mkt timing is often too soon on both ends ..

And just like that we're back to where we started on Monday afternoon. This volatility is incredible. I don't see how anyone can avoid getting whipsawed at least once or twice.

Bull Hunter, if you rode your SKF and SDS through this period of level 10 rapids I salute you.

FranSix:

Thank you for your response. I read what you write and value your comments; and it interests me to scan your junior miner watchlist.

I agree with your thesis about junior miners still not performing as well as the price of gold. I was facetiously pointing out that the evidence which you offered in support of your view was unconvincing; namely, the comparative price performance of $GOLD and Golden Band Resources.

Comparing one junior only, my junior miner pick to refute you would be Eastmain Resources ER.TO

http://tinyurl.com/2enzq4

Btw, I love your charts. My chart creation skills are pretty primitive; but, liking the looks of yours, I have been learning from you.

regards.

number2son,

I don't own SDS, but I did ride SKF and QID thru the storm.

In retrospect, I should have added to SKF yesterday at sub 115. What a one day gain it would have been.

Regards

going long

JRPauley,

The fact that people are now saying that they do not want to miss out on the PMs is for me the signal that a reversal in PMs is near, and that this upswing is now very mature.

Another signal is the fact that the little devil in me is saying that I should hold on to my gold longs a little bit more once my target is reached, which would be wrong if I did it.

As mentioned yesterday, at this point I am only waiting for my goal to be reached before I sell my greed to the market.

Cheers.

Do you guys think there is a bottom to USDX ? Being in cash now reminds me being invested in techs in 2000 :(. I can easily deal with missing potential gains by limiting my participation in a risky asset class but I am getting really emotionally sick when the most conservative asset is being decimated at the ever increasing speed.

Bear Sterns sure looks like it is seeing the white light. There was an article in the British press counterparties no longer trust Bear and are trying to avoid doing business with the firm. Hedge funds that use it as a broker are moving accounts to other firms.

This is the breakdown in the credit ring that Bill was talking about at least a month ago.

Occam,

Cash in USD today is a risky asset class.

if the gold miners can sustain a rally during a general slide in the markets, just imagine the lift they may get in the event of an intermediate term rally.

(assuming the POG does not crash)

Joey, re ER.to

I modified your chart slightly to show both $Gold and ER.TO in the same currency, thus taking the exch out of the graph. I also changed them both to be in performance mode for a straight comparison.

I think this really shows what you're looking at.

Stockcharts
http://tinyurl.com/3xkuu4

To Cara Blog Tech Person

look at the comments scructure at the bottom of this blog
http://zmansenergybrain.com/2008/03/13/thursday-gas-preview-oil-review/

with the cara blog having so many contributurs and so many postings by each, it is often so hard to follow who is talking about what comment. numbering the posts like zman does will make referencing so much easier.....
just a suggestion for future, if it is feasible.

"long time reader & user of cara blog"

Anyonwe know why all of the sudden we get a quick spike up in the markets?

krishnamurtidude "why all of the sudden"

EEMtrader went long ;)

Anyone here like MBI at $11 for a trade ?

Looks like there's room on the upside - maybe a nice gain from here ? Maybe ...

2nd_Ave...

Here comes that rally I was warning you about...

Back in FXP w/ a nibble at $97.75

Macro, thanks for the $0.02 x .71 re gold

Traders are buying on 1270/80 "double bottom" support.

I've always thought that a true double bottom has the second bottom lower than the first.

Rob.

JrPauley,

???

You are welcome anyway.

:-)

If the SPYs cant cross 130.70 I am out..if it does clear it..adding

sorry Macro, 2 cents adjusted for dollar index

exit longs

:-)

grrrrrrrr...need more patience...

Re: GEOLOGIX GIX.v

Readers, if you were going to pick someone from the community to challenge or correct Bill, would your candidate be someone with no balls whatsoever? Well, suitably unqualified here – no cahones – I was asked by a very smart guy who knows about these things ( whose identity I shall not reveal) to correct/improve upon Bill’s presentation.

Recall that in his daily report of monday, march 10, Bill featured GIX as his top pick. Bill reproduced the terms of GIX' deal with Silver Standard Resources, whereby GIX is acquiring its ‘feature’ property.

An extract:
'If the silver resource… is equal to or greater than 50 million ounces of silver, SSR shall have a one time back-in right to acquire a 50% interest in property by incurring expenditures over the next two years equal to three times the expenditures incurred by the Company. The Company agreed to an SSR royalty of 2.5% of net smelter return…'

For GIX, the deal has improved. On September 20, 2007, Geologix announced that it had amended its agreement with Silver Standard to remove the back-in right to Silver Standard, thus allowing Geologix the right to earn a 100% interest in the project subject only to the NSR.

And yes, to follow up Fred’s post, the word from the bleachers is that these results are very good. The part of the news release I like is this:
'Our resource calculation has begun and our initial vision of a multimillion ounce precious
metal deposit with significant base metals seems to becoming closer to a reality.'

regards

Just a simple observation of the ex Goldman CEO Paulson, Secretary of the-well-connected Treasury.
I'm not sure why he even is even allowed to get up and voice his opinion, unless there is monetary gain for numero one, "PAULSON."
In a nut shell he is demanding HB&B (his close personal friends) to completely abandon the dividend. This does nothing positive for the investors equity value except drive it down further.
He never mentioned, nor hinted to, the outrageously high CEO compensation that these CEO's lavish on themselves.
I guess it's hard to imagine Paulson addressing CEO over compensation when his last pay stub from Goldman read 16.40 million dollars for his iron fenced compound.
Why do well connected CEO's trade a 16.4 million dollar pay check for a $150,000.00 pay stub? I'm convinced inside information that would directly benefit his family and friends is the driving force in hundreds of cases just just like this Paulson Secretary of the well-connected Treasury case has proven so far!

taking some shorts here...

Added FXP @ 96.33

Exeter Resource Corp.
Last week, XRA has entered into a letter of intent with Fomicruz SE, a company owned by the Government of Santa Cruz Province, Argentina. When the agreement is finalized, the terms will likely be the following:

* Fomicruz SE will acquire a 5% interest in Exeter’s 176 square kilometre Cerro Moro project;
* Exeter will have the right to earn up to an 80% interest in 763 square kilometres of Fomicruz SE exploration properties (see map) adjoining the Cerro Moro project by incurring US$10 million in exploration expenditures over a number of years;
* Exeter will fund all exploration and development costs of the Cerro Moro project and Fomicruz SE will repay an agreed amount of those costs from 50% of Fomicruz SE’s share of net revenue from future operations.
Earlier in the week, we had a chance to speak to Matthew Williams, an Exploration Manager at Exeter. Exploration work is going at 100 percent capacity during the short summer season in South America. A lot of drill results can be expected all the way through August 2008 as the current core samples get assayed in busy laboratories.

The management is very optimistic about Caspiche Project in Chile. There should be good indications about the size of the deposit in just a few short months.

At Cerro Moro, a resource estimate should be out in the second half of 2008, at which point a preliminary economic assessment will commence. Cerro Moro has a very large number of high grade veins, some of them sticking out at the surface. The management would like to define a 500,000 to 1,000,000 ounce reserve and concentrate on bringing a smaller operation into production before following up and expanding its Cerro Moro resource to its target of 2 to 4 million ounces.
From ResourceStockGuide News Letter

Bought last bit of FXP at 95.5, bought back in for a basis this morning of 96.93. Will not be buying any more today.

careful out there...we are entering a low volume zone...

Quasi:
Thank you for helping me see better.

Btw, I really like Eastamin Resources ER.TO. My top pick, I think...

An anecdote...first, the background...Virginia Mines sold the Eleonore property (James Bay area of Quebec)for big bucks to Goldcorp; and its marquee resource, the Roberto deposit, is being expanded and work is ongoing for mine development.
An adjacent property, Eleonore S, is the subject of a JV between G, ER and Azimut, of which ER is the operator.
Nearby ER wholly owns the Clearwater property and is defining what is looking to be a big rich
Eau Claire deposit thereon (G bought a 9.5% position in ER last year.)
Getting to the anecdote, on the dog n pony show circuit, ER's CEO, Dr. Don Robinson, has titled his presentation 'Does Roberto have a little sister?'
Last week at PDAC, I was talking to ER's IR guy, Chad, who told me that Dr. Don is considering a title change to 'Does Roberto have a rich uncle?'

regards

CNBC is reporting that the spike up in the DOW earlier was due to S&P issuing a report that said that we are now past more than 1/2 of the total write-offs that S&P expects to see in the financial stocks. The reporter said it was from S&P's France office.

EEMTrader, re. your call at 11:01 AM. A lot of us would love if you could share what is it that made you go long at that time. It was indeed a genius call.

exiting shorts

Yeah, EEM - I looked @ the bond yields, vix, and tried looking for divergences in the RUT, XLF, compared to the SPY. didn't see anything..

eemtrader
long cfc this am
completely nuts, i should be in an institution?

Re: ER.TO

Eastmain has had the benefit of a major gold company taking part in their exploration programme, and had some success early on in the gold bull market with a speculative high in 2004.

Its good to take in the long term chart on a weekly basis. ER.TO seems fully priced in terms of $CDN gold prices. Its run ahead of the speculative crowd, but has done so in the past.

As you will see from the chart, ER.TO has had a long term relationship with the Silver/Gold ratio, with a large speculative high outside the trend in Q1 2004:

http://tinyurl.com/2a5tqf

SIO2: Thank you ...but no genius here..the market is at a low..the 4 stocks that I track were sitting at lows and not moving lower though it had plenty of opportunity..no panic on the charts

the SPY formed a hammer At 10:48 at support on a 3 minute chart...

The XLE moved after the inventory news came out was the heads up..and a similar hammer formed there ..

ditto for the qqqq's..look at the time the qs and xle formed its hammer..when that happens...

the boyz have kicked their computers into gear...I follow da boyz/gurlz

Thank you.

i have mixed emotions about my current position in gold.

with the first close above $1000 for gold id be curious to see what sort of media attention its gets.

an analyst (and i use that term loosely these days) was on bloomberg this morning stating that the fed will support the dollar by not lowering rates AS MUCH as the street wants. he felt this would give legs to a US dollar rally and bring commodities back to a healthy level.

this struck me as the most moronic thing ive ever heard, yet he may just turn out to be right as another news clip i found today stated almost exactly the same thing.

barf.

Learner2 - CNBC likes to take the story of the moment and claim the market moves are a direct response to every tidbit that crosses the wires. But lets be real here - the subprime write-offs are old news. No one is buying the market b/c subprime debt is suddenly looking better.

The real "reason" for the spike:

Shorts took short-term profits and the bears backed off to close the gap from yesterday. The markets ebb/flow based on short-term demand. Doesn't make for a very good CNBC newsbreak but its the truth! Always remember to wear a brain filter when watching CNB(S)C!

Cheers

BIGWad...no I dont think you belong in an institution..you do quite well fromw what I can tell

I dont trade stocks below $5...but pulling CFC up on a chart...it looks to me that there is more reward than risk..

most you can lose is $5 ( thats if your stops are even that far)...the upside..like next week if the FED does cut Huge..is way higher...

I wouldnt have posted that I was going long..earlier..but too many were salivating the market was going down and adding to their shorts too soon..just like Basketguy said..

thats why I posted....

Bill: I can comment that Drupal is a pretty good choice (not that you were asking). I recently did an evaluation of CMS tools (CMS = Content Management System) for a small website that I manage. It came down to Drupal vs. Wordpress. Drupal is more powerful but a bit too heavyweight and complicated for my needs which is why I chose Wordperss. Probably Drupal will be a good choice for billcara.com, especially if you need to integrate with external sites.

Fatty ArBuckle...The $TNX also formed a hammer and was rising, together with the QQQQs,XLE and SPY ..da banks were selling to raise cash..where they going to put the money....?

2nd/Craig/EEM/Others - Any thoughts re DUG at current level (38.30-38.40)?

OG : I would get out..fast. it bounced off the 50 DMA, its the strongest sector todayand on the 3 min chart..I think I see a bull flag and ifthe XLE crosses $76...thats a trendline break orth on the 30 min chart..

Thats what I see...

Guess the market answered that question for me.

Thanks, EEM.

Joey, Fransix

Thanks for the extra background on ER.to, I've had it on a watch list just due to the chart. I'll have to look further into the story as you both indicate it is quite interesting.

EMM - Thanks! Don't normally work off daily charts, but I see what you say. Cheers! ~ OG

FattyArBuckle..dont forget to put the breadth chart up next to the $TNX..and underneath that put the QQQQs, XLF and XLE ( Without those 3 .there is not much left in the stock market ).

IF the market is going to get pumped ..I think the QQQQs and XLE are the tells today..

When they all jerk up/down at the same time....

:)

Jotting it all down... thanks-

Bill Belovay just finished a session on mining stocks on Market Call on BNN. The video isn't up on the site yet, but when it is it should appear here, 12:30 Ontario time I believe:

http://www.bnn.ca/shows/past_archive.tv?day=thur

He had insightful comments on the McFaulds Lake play, particularly Noront, as well as many other plays. He panned the SLV gold ETF for the same reasons Kaimu does, and recommended buying gold coins instead. IMHO it is worth viewing if you buy mining shares.

bullish hammer on FXP while the $TNX stalled out @ 1:38 PM EST, XLF & XLE were still rising @ the time... stalled a few mins later.

FattyArbuckle: Dont forget your trend indicators..all my intraday is pointing up...so difference between:
1) shorting a pullback where the SPY is against its pivot versus
2)a trend day down...with fat juicy profits

Just so the reward/risks and expectations are clear...

Re: Bill Belovay on BNN

I agree with Freedom57.

I had it on while I doing something else...and it distracted me from something else...very good, very educational...lots of macro commentary about the precious metal and base metal markets and the impact of hedge funds...
I plan to watch it again - this time with a notebook instead of a tea towel...I prefer to watch the archived reruns away...no commercials...the 60 min shrinks to 40...

Can anyone comment on the relative strength on steel stocks? Don't these steel companies have to pay more on ore and shipping to import ore from Australia?

bg- nice call re the rally...i think DUG/SMN look good here...

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine is on CNBC. What a breath of realism compared to the usual pie-in-the-sky politicos!

Quasi:

RE Eastmain Resources ER.to

If you want to look further at ER, I suggest - to fast track the process- that you look first at 2 excellent and recent analyst reports - one by Michael Gray of Genuity Capital and one by Eric Lemieux, a former field geologist, of Laurentian Bank.
As I recall, links to these reports were posted to the ER thread on Stockhouse as they became available several weeks and a few months ago. However, that thread has been become overpopulated with the fan club recently...hence, may be hard to find...
Email me if you want these reports and I'll send them to you...barbarafoellathotmaildotcom.

PDAC buddy, Mikede, where are you? Are you going to admit to owning ER shares too?

SRS: Scaling in starting at 109.+/-
Added to RRPIX
Bought DZZ just after the open.
WMT added at 50
Still holding/adding SBUX on weakness.

Whiplash!

We go from end times this morning to euphoria?

Crazy.

OG- sorry for the late responses->tied up at work and wife's driving the port today...

That double-bottom talk is going to get louder after this monstrous move. I am going to wait for 1360 (50 DMA) for swing shorts.

Do you guys see this as short covering or something broader?

Looks like the market may be pulling the squeeze 'em 'til 3pm ET and distribute into forced buying trick again. They are wedging that crowbar back under the roof!

Just bought 1/2 postion- puts MAR 22.5 INTC @ $1.15

Maybe I can get a better price later, rest in cash for now. Looking at SRS, DUG

Maromatics:

You seem to be very positive on gold. After today's front page Yahoo news about gold, don't you think that everyone who wanted to buy gold has already done so (or will do so in the near future), and only the sellers will remain, leading to a crash like in May 2006?

Thank you in advance for your thoughts -- your commentary on gold is always very insightful.

DavidV

craig- sounds like you're maneuvering well...(someday after i retire i'm going to have to set up a trading room with real-time A/V connections to yours ;)

BRIC down -1-2% with U.S. up?

What am I not not seeing here.

GECKOJB: Tech (QQQQs)...no tech in BRICs..just phone companies..

Thx EEM. In meetings all day...what's up with tech?

FXI/FXP

See declining trendline connecting the highgs over the last 3 days and how FXI is being squeezed by it..if you own FXP...and that trendline breaks to the upside...watch out.

If it fails..ADD to FXP

Maromatics:

I rushed in to ask you a question without reading your earlier posts, in which you have answered it already. Thanks!

DavidV

geckojb: I think what is up is another hunk of HB&B baloney...trying to goose the price on some old favorites before they dump them... just my opinion

Geckojb: Tech getting its money allocation today..dragging up US indices..no tech in BRIC ETFs unless you count wireless companies

People, you have no idea how comfortable it feels to be almost completely in cash and watching this ludicrous whipsawing from the sidelines.

Again, unless you can watch the ticker every minute -- or have a long-term plan and don't have to watch it at all -- then there is no good reason trying to trade this market.

Wow, very low volume on the brokers and banks today. Looks like a selling respite for them.

moab You want to see volume on a financial---BSC--checked back 4 years and today is the all time high. near 64.5 million as I type! Wild roller coaster.

I meant to exclude BSC. They report earnings next week. Should be interesting.

2nd: For some reason strangely calm, cool, collected. Just letting it come to me and sitting. Eating Haagen Dazs.

The DZZ was your idea....

38000 puts @ 25.00 strike in BSC today...

BG yes and those are MAR puts (expiration next week) I've been mentioning the put volume on Skype.

Sorry Seamus...

Had the skype off...It was messing with my computer yesterday...

News was they were going BK...HMMM

What is that saying buy the rumor...and sell the news?

David,

Glad to help.

We trade as a team

Cheers!

2nd: As soon as I get the bandwidth....still having a three way tug O' war with Qwest, local cable, county commissioners over using the conduit under the bridge for Qwest DSL...

I just joined Skype. What is the difference,if any,between the dialogue here and the dialogue on Skype. Thanks in advance.

Added ag stock CHSCP near the end of day to one of the managed accounts. Big dividend end of month.
Usually illiquid and is a preferred issue. Please doydd.

Disclosure: Long in personal account

desertdreamer..

Text less formal on skype......

Say what you want...

BG: Skype is less formal?...i dont have to mind my p's and q's ?...Hmmmmm..I need to look into that

From Colin Twiggs:
"The Fed announced a new temporary lending facility that will allow banks and bond dealers to swap mortgage-backed securities, that they can't currently sell, for highly liquid Treasuries. This will increase the total amount of money that the Fed has pumped into the financial system to over $400 billion, in an attempt to sustain the flow of credit to consumers. So far the increased liquidity has not had much effect. A slow-down in credit extension would cause a sharp down-turn in the economy."

"Loss of liquidity in the mortgage-backed security market is best illustrated by the chart of new issues."

"During the week I spoke with fixed income specialist Neil King of RIM Securities Linited. His view of the Fed's bail-out plan is that it will improve liquidity but does not address the solvency issues faced by a number of banks."

"Repurchase agreements add short term liquidity only. But if a CDO is valued at 20c in the dollar, repos will not change this."

"I also agree with Neil that the positive sentiment offers "an excellent opportunity to liquidate long positions — before people realise it is nothing more than a bull trap and the markets once again move lower."

Since I don't get bubblevision and I was away from the computer, I listened to National Pablum Radio and the new low in the dollar was the top story. I thought the reporter didn't really understand though, when he said the lower dollar wasn't of too much consequence to consumers. I yelled at him why did he think oil was going up? Or what about all those widgets we buy from China? He did say, however, that a precipitous drop would "be very scary" as it would bring the world economy to a standstill. We'll just have to wait and see on that one.

n2s -
When you say in cash do you mean USD ? I ask because I do not feel comfortable at all being heavily in cash these days. Holding the cash now unpleasantly resembles me holding the shares of NT and LU in 2000-2002, both muti-billion dollar companies that could "no way" go down more than 30% or so :) as "should" revert to mean any time. Same freaking feelings.

Frank Holmes on Bloomberg.
He just said that gold and agriculture commodities are due for a correction, but then he expects gold to go over USD 2000.

Now on a more serious note. Are there any big market players with serious political clout left in business who are NOT interested in debasement of US currency ?

Current bloomberg story ,says:-

The dollar's record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to prop up the currency in 13 years, say strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc

Anybody any ideas as to whether there might be any substance in this?

Basketguy Reference BSC. May explain its recent stock action including put options.

From this morning’s WSJ Heard on Wall Street column.

“Traders handling certain long-term transactions, such as credit-default swaps, said they are being extra cautious when Bear is the counterparty. In some cases, traders are seeking higher-ups' permission before acting.

In addition, some clients of rivals like Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse Group and Deutsche Bank AG have asked those firms to be counterparties to Bear in completed transactions. Such a move frees clients from exposure in the event a firm can't cover its obligations on a trade.

Some hedge funds that use Bear as a prime broker also have been shifting portions of their business to other firms in recent weeks, according to hedge-fund managers and consultants who help pension funds and wealthy people choose where to place their money. A similar shift occurred last summer, but Bear soon recovered much of the lost business.”

http://tinyurl.com/yutx5m (may require subscription)

Re reversion to the mean, on WTIC, this time something is very, very different. See http://www.energybulletin.net/41577.html. Tom Whipple's credentials are awesome. None of us have experienced anything in our investing lives like Peak Oil.....it will impact every aspect of our world going forward. Those trading on the right side will do very well.....those trading on the wrong side, not so well.

Thanks for a great site....

Ken Fisher - we have nothing to worry about...read all about it....

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2008/0324/168.html

FattyArBuckle RE: your 12:38pmpost

The divergence you want to look for is between the $VIX and the RSI, on a 3/5 min chart.

check it out on todays chart around 8AM..before whatever news came out

Debt Crisis a False Alarm???- Ken Fishers dreaming on that one. A different take on it appeared in an article entitled something like "Crunching the Numbers" in the Economist this week. The bottom line was, assuming the financials as a whole take only a 200 billion dollar loss and assuming they are able to get cash infusions of 100 billion and they reduce their money multiplier from 10x to 5x, the result is a decline of around 900 billion to the economy or about a 1.5% decline in GNP based on the subprime mess alone.

onlineaces--mind-blowing piece. I had no idea this crisis was a myth. How could we have been so fooled? Here's a stock idea: Citigroup.
"Take {write-offs] out of the equation and you find Citi going for four times operating earnings. I think this is a $40 stock by mid-2009."
Well, at least he's thinking contrarian....

Re: Ken Fisher Article

This paragraph must be read and re-read:

"It's going to take years for the financial sector to recover from its excesses, just as it took years for energy to recover from the 1980 collapse and for technology to recover from 2000. Still, I like Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) (25, C ). The stock costs less than half of what it did last year. The market value of $129 billion looks high against earnings of $3 billion. But those earnings reflect the subprime writeoffs. These writeoffs have simply nothing to do with the underlying business. Take them out of the equation and you find Citi going for four times operating earnings. I think this is a $40 stock by mid-2009."

IT would help if he defined 'excesses' of the financial sector. And it would help if he can explain why subprime writeoffs have nothing to do with the underlying business! Huh?
It's one big non-sequitur.

If he likes C at $25, he must love it at 20.
Hey, I like C, too, and I'll like it more WHEN they have a balance sheet that's clean.

Oh, and Fisher sounds like Kudlow back in January; Kudlow said that IF you take out the financials from the S&P, then S&P Operating Earnings are rockin'!

Fisher's only has one view - bullish. He was bullish at the peak and all the way down; typical clown behavior. I wonder how happy the clients of his money management firm are.

I think this paragraph - the first! - takes the cake:

"If you believe the popular economic myths of the day, you think there's a credit squeeze--less total credit available. This is nonsense. There's indeed less credit available to poor risks, individual and corporate. But that just means there's more for the good borrowers. Blue-chip companies are flush with capital and borrowing power. This is bullish, both for the economy and for stocks, especially stocks of big companies."

Where to begin, where to begin...

joey, quasi, fransix
I came to ER because jock put it on my list of juniors to research for the CaraJunior100. I was and am very impressed and it is the only stock on my list that I actually purchased. They have an allstar list of investors.Goldcorp Inc. (9.95%)
Dundee Precious Metals
Sprott Asset Management
RAB Capital Ltd.
Anglo Pacific Group
Mineral Fields Fund
Canadian Resource Fund
Northern Precious Metals Find
SIDEX, société en commandite
SOQUEM
SDBJ
Excalibur
Stone & Company
Management
They are fishing where the fish are. They have three major areas of exploration (and Quebec is more than mining friendly) and I asked Robinson what are the size of his targets on each of the sites. His answer was multimillion target on all.
So he is trying for a homerun, he bought 100K more shares for himself in December. I like his chances , I like the chart, anytime volume comes in the price goes up, so I'm in for the ride.

We have OVERSOLD' markets and overBOUGHT commodities...with extreme pessmism

Do get 1987 starting soon?

Not to pile on, but Ken Fisher was thumping the table for home builders back in early 2007, a cheerleader for the "spring turnaround" pump. If you took his advice you would have lost your pants.

Why anyone listens to this guy is a mystery.

"When you say in cash do you mean USD ?"

occam, 'fraid so. Even with a plunging dollar and high inflation, the risks in the market now outweigh the rewards. For now. And for me, now means tomorrow and the day after.

fisher's opinion is just that-

reminds me of one of my profs taking off on a tangent one day to ask how many of us believed something just because it was in a textbook-> "anything you read in a book, including mine, may or may not be right...some of the smartest people in history have been wrong."

no one has the time to read all the opinions out there...even if you did, it would be a meaningless and ultimately confusing exercise-> all you really need is your common sense, which will direct you to opinions that are understandable, make sense, and almost always come with a good track record...

...continuing, he also said, "some of the things you read are outright lies...people write books for many different reasons."

The prime reason why I did not invest in ER.TO was that they have their project in Quebec.

Cramer has his opinion on the Carlyle 16 billion inevitable crash. He believes there has to be a big bank go down the tubes before the economy turns around.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/cramer-carlyles-collapse-isnt-enough/video/cramermarketupdates/10407628.html?puc=_htmlatb#10407628

FranSix:

Why is Eastmain's having a project in Quebec a deterrent for you?

The Carlyle Group is so large and influential , my bet is that they don't have much personal money in Carlyle Capital, they probably borrowed it all. It would be interesting to know how much personal money they lose, not paper money actually invested capital

Mikede

thanks, I've heard that Quebec is very mine friendly from a few people now. Thus I've been looking a little more in that area.

Fransix, you don't like Quebec ?, Thinking there might be problems if they decide to separate ?? I don't think thats gonna happen, but you know with politics anything can happen, but its sure much safer than some countries.

Denny, kp84, moeb, 2nd, number2son, and anyone else was chuckled by the Ken Fisher article @ www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2008/0324/168.html...

I really couldn't stop laughing at this article. I mean a really hard gut laugh. It's a keeper and it represents the collective hypocrisies of the agents of financial propaganda.

The irony here folks is this guy is guy beat Bill in the cxo guru score card! Believe it or not!

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

The one line in the article that makes me convulse with laughter is this:
"We're in the first full correction of the new leg of the bull market."

enjoy...

Ken Fisher -

He reminds me of the old Monty Python sketch "the Argument Clinic". He always likes to say the opposite of whatever else "the experts" are saying.

It stretches your mind, but seems a bit formulaic.
I've heard him speak several times.

He also has one of the most aggressive selling organizations I've come across. The Wall St. Journal even had a front page feature on that ... FWIW.

Rumor: Citibank and Lehman tops exposure in Carlyle Fund
Posted by: Drizzt on Friday, March 14th, 2008

Broker’s trading exposures to Carlyle Hush-Hush-Hotels Capital’s soon to be defaulted fund — rumored to be leveraged at an astonishing 32 X! — has been the big question circulating street desks today.

Here’s one set of numbers currently circulating on the potential exposure (analyst unknown):

-Citibank (C) $4.7B
-Lehman (LEH) $3B
-BoA (BAC) $2B
-UBS $1.8B
-Bear Stearns Bear-Stearns-Troubles Nov-07 (BSC) $1.7B
-ING $1.5B
-JPMorgan (JPM) $1.4B
-Calyon $1.3B
-Merrill Lynch (MER) $760m
-BN Paribas $600m
-Credit Suisse Bear-Stearns-Troubles $500m

These are rumors. So please use them as such.

http://tinyurl.com/3cja29

On the very bizarre activity on BSC:

Took a look at the BVD-OE Mar 25 put...

IV was over 500% today...never seen anything like this....

Also the volume was up over 39 million for this contract? wow.

Their earnings are on Mar. 20th the day before options expiration for March too....

There is a tell going on here....for sure, where there's smoke there's fire as they say...

If this is just a fear based rumor a bullish put spread could make some very easy money.

Could BSC possibly be below 25 by next Thursday?

If the rumor is false and you believe the CEO recently declaring that BSC has no liquidity issues then it might be a screaming buy at these levels: its price-to-book ratio is just 0.73.

Let's put the rumor aside, now for some cold hard facts:<