Nice letter Bill. Please add me to your paid service prospects. You are doing us a great service. thanks

RE Kaimu, at March 6, 2008 7:01 AM

Sounds like the Jim Sinclair notes would be quite interesting, if you've got a googledoc's acct you could copy the stuff you want public, upload it and create a link for us all to see. If you don't have an acct I could post it for you on my acct, just send me an email. Quasi at Frontenacdesign dot com.

Always enjoy reading your informative commentary.

Bill, I can attest to the fact that Chinese workers are in need of increases in terms of benefits. My company outsources a portion of our software development work to a company in China. I have come to know several members of this group as they rotate a small number into our home office in 3-4 mos. cycles.

Recently, we learned that one member of our Chinese team needed help paying for hospitalization for his child. He had no medical benefits and so we took up a collection on his behalf in our U.S. office to help him pay for the necessary care.

I'm happy Chinese workers are pressing for what we take for granted here in the U.S. It's long overdue.

craig- pressing the short side a bit pre-market->adding to QID to equal-weight with DUG/SMN...

Where/when will the notes from the PDAC conference from the Caraistas be posted?
I'm very interested to hear firsthand what their impressions of the various companies/presentations were.

keep up the good work, bill.

df

MER down 6%...

what did todd harrison say the other day-> GS and GOOG trading in the same direction is the tell...

Kaimu - a suggestion

Use http://www.mediafire.com/ to upload the file.
It is simple, fast, and free!

I ran across this on Seeking Alpha.

http://tinyurl.com/2uhw5y
Get Ready for the Last Rally

My initial thought was “No way…” . Then I remembered a board acquaintance who is into Gann cycle charting. He predicts a brief rally starting about March 14. The 17th starts expiration week—always a good time to kill the shorts.
Opinion? Comment??

Thank you 2nd: I started nibbling AH yesterday.
Added SKF @125.05
SRS, WMT(reg. hours)and DOG.
I wish us luck...

march rally is not out of the question->could make a case that we 'successfully' tested the january lows on monday at 12,032 and are now indeed set for a major rally...just can't be too committed either way in this market...why not play the back and forth until we get out of this trading range...

Good Morning:

There are two Upgrades to report in the Cara 100:

IBN - to Neutral @ HSBC
TS - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

-------------------------------------------------

Note to excavatorsb,

You're quite welcome. You can learn a lot from reading Bill's Daily Reports and Commentary, and reading/joining in the chat here.

I believe you'll find the regular posters here to be quite helpful and incredibly knowledgeable at trading. I learn new trading skills here everyday.

Good luck to you.

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day, everyone.

make that DJIA on 'tuesday'...

A comparison of the US yield curve with the S&P 500 Index highlights a broadly inverse relationship, i.e. stocks fall when the yield curve steepens and rise when the curve flattens. Given the expectation that the yield curve may become steeper yet before the patient starts responding to the medicine, more downside may be in store for US stocks.

Here is the link to the article: http://tinyurl.com/2msnln

OT:

Miltary recruiting center bombed in Times Square:

http://tinyurl.com/2utwvr

TMA looking like it's finished...

Interview with Ian McAvity - the Canadian Richard Russel, perhaps more so. Cautious (NOT bearish) on gold at current prices.
http://tinyurl.com/32cpdw
Kaimu - great form this morning. Accepting that we are all responsible for ourselves and that Social Security was a Ponzi scheme, how could Mom and Pop best have managed their affairs, given that most folks lack investment skills? Eliminating fiat money doesn't raise their ability to pick stocks, so in the end we (Pop and my lady) have to trust someone to do it or advise us. I haven't come across too many that are both competent and trustworthy.

craig- LOL->now we get the rotation into tech...

I love the smell of napalmed financials in the morning.

:^)

BH- LOL..prefer the smell of coffee and bacon myself...

Bought my VIX calls back and bought some ABK puts yesterday. Looking to buy DIA puts if the Dow rises above 12400 or falls below 11900.

Added SKF at 125 thinking it was a mistake. All green.

KSS Feb. comps fall 3.8%

http://tinyurl.com/yqrgrm

SRS: out at 118.90 :>)

Specifically, Brazil Daterra Farms Yellow Bourbon full city roast. Mmmm.

Out of SKF at 130

Disclosure: Added GLD at 96, GSS at 3.96

JCP Feb comps down 6.7%

Seems like a rotation back to tech and big beta today as they are very strong. Everything else is getting killed, particularly the financials. Quite a dichotomy that seems to need to get resolved one way or the other.

S&P bullish percent indicator reversed down. Supply is in charge.

It is a silver exploration company. A speculative play. I think Jim Puplava is a big investor.

craig- are you talking about a COST product or a personal recipe?

In your neighborhood...sort of.....
Sweet Marias (.com) Oakland. Roasted here.

GFI -

Doing great today and looks to continue its upward trend....its doing better than SKF today!

I meant to say KBX has been moving up nicely with a possible break-out on high volume.

It is a silver exploration company. A speculative play. I think Jim Puplava is a big investor.

FDG Fording breaking out.

CMP already did.

Bought some KBX earlier this week. They had been crushed by naked short selling. Wonder what sent the shorts packing; has Puplava been making progress with testimony to Congress.

GFI -

Should be an announcement tomorrow on full power for miners in SA. I wish I would have held on to this one as I thought this would happen but it took longer than I thought.

Speaking of a KBX short squeeze, here is a table of short interest for some HUI & Silver stocks:

http://tinyurl.com/2w8jz8

Watching the screen and listening to Tom Petty's "Free Fallin'". :^)

moab, who said full power tomorrow?

SP 1320 not holding? Next stop 1310.

The SA minister responsible for power was on Bloomberg yesterday and said all mining co's would get 5% more....not 100% yet.

Sandvine, SVC.to. For those who were looking for an entry point on this great little company, stock down 50% today.

"The Q1 opportunities we have been pursuing still exist, but customers are taking longer to make decisions and, although we do not evaluate the strength of our business on the results in any one particular quarter, we think it's prudent to adjust our annual revenue estimate at this time,"

"We believe that the delays have come about for a variety of reasons, ranging from unique customer-specific circumstances to economic conditions, making operators pause before executing on their approved budgets. We can't dictate when customers make their decisions, just influence whether they choose Sandvine and we remain as confident as ever in our ability to do that."

In another development Thursday, Sandvine said its board has approved a buyback of up to 10 million common shares over the next year or so. That amounts to just over seven per cent of the company's share capital.

Backing up the truck.

Out of XHB puts Mar19 for 70%. Rolling to April.
Home Builder stocks being nailed.

I was one of the junior miner reviewers on Jock's team at the PDAC this week. As Bill and Jock have indicated, we're in the process of building the database from which there is expected to be some analysis and reporting, but in the meantime, I'll make a few comments here in the discourse for a few of the companies I looked at, (look for comment headings "DNT" and "UME" in a short while).

By way of background, I have an undergrad degree in geology, but haven't practised the profession. I used to attend PDAC as a student and have gone the last couple of years. I've been investing for many years and have been improving my trading skills over the past couple of years. I can make no claim to being an analyst, but hopefully, can offer some partially digested information and a sense of what these companies are about.

I will admit a bias. In the 80s, I met several VSE, (precursor to TSX Venture exchange), company promoters. I was stunned by some thinly disguised fraud that was going on, (i.e. "mining companies" that had absolutely nothing in the ground). While those days are likely over, (better controls in place now), I still regard the sector with scepticism, and see most geologists and promoters as better-educated stakers and panners. That said, I invest in the sector because there are some amazing opportunities to make money.

I'll happily receive any feedback on my company comments and answer any questions if I can.

I misread the rumor - though more power was full power. Sorry.

excavatorsb, re your 1:13am post. No worries. The primary protocol here - If I may speak for our host- is respect. Discussion and disagreement are rife here. We each do things differently.

My protocol when I hear a chart technique is, StockCharts, Investopedia, IBD and then back here to see if anyone has rehashed the topic. I found Bill Cara thru http://tiny.pl/l33b and I have a (now much more select) list of people/sites I have bookmarked from that site.
Oh, one other protocol is the use of tinyurl : http://tiny.pl/l7h as some browsers do not wrap text and a long url gets printed as a 200 letter word with no breaks which causes everyone some discomfort-back to the respect theme!

re the San Juan Islands....alas they are not in my view out the window...we look east. The San Juans are like the country of our hearts where people are friendly and independent, intelligent and open. We go there regularly. Maybe it will rub off. That also applies to Vancouver Island, it has a place in our heart
peace from North Puget Sound
Gray
ps long GFI, NOT, SNDK

OT: E-Trade Global Trading Lacking any real service.

I wanted to participate in a rights offering announced by a stock I own (CTL). I called etrade and they said they can't help me, they aren't set up for that yet. Sheesh. The trading platform itself is fine, but I guess they have no manpower to actually do anything for a client. Do IB customers have any experience getting access to this type of deal? Can IB handle it? I guess I need a full service broker-- but not more than once or twice a year, any thoughts?

Moab: Teamwork, many eyes make light work....

Proof throwing it out there works for us.

Todd Harrison points out that the BKX banking index is sitting right on the January lows of 77.80. If it caves...

DNT (tsx)

Candente Resource Corp. is a copper deposit development play. The company was founded by a couple of very experienced geologists who have identified a promising deposit in Peru; a politically-stable, (though not very democratic), mining-friendly country.

The copper deposit is a good size, (6.5 billion lbs.), but the grade is on the low side of attractiveness, (0.46%). Infrastructure is good and company relationships with local peoples and government seem good, (the company has emphasized their work to build relationships in the community).

The company is structuring itself to be able to take the deposit into production, but the real potential and goal seems to be positioning itself to be bought by a major, (Chinese?). They've got a finance guy in place now who's sharp as a tack and he recognizes this goal.

Blackmont Capital have a Jan/08 report on DNT with a target price of $3.20, (currently at $1.70).

I think these guys are quite legit, but there isn't much volume on a stock like this. I think you need to be a believer in copper price strength and be prepared to progressively build a position and then wait for a takeover bid.

Was trying to think of the next cock and bull story that will be floated by the prop desks....

How 'bout: Charlie Gasparino is reporting that McDonalds will be accepting 50 cents and a share of Thornburg Mortgage in exchange for a cup of coffee?

Cyderman, thanks for the article/interview by Ian McAvity. A nice read and gentle reminder of how much larger the fixed income side is in relation to equities.

If others have not read, please consider doing so.

PDAC review by someone who knows precious little about precious metals:

As an amature gold bug and trader I spent some time at the PDAC over the course of Sunday and Monday of this week.

Having never been to a mining conference before I really enjoyed seeing all the different booths and the sense of excitement in the air with gold approaching $1000.

Here were some things I took away from the conference:

1. Bill I had hoped to introduce myself at some point but we missed meeting up in the media a few times, I appreciated the return phone call as im sure you had alot of people meet and greet.

work tied me up badly for the past few days so hopefully next year i can dedicate more time to the PDAC.

2. a few booths used some shameless promotional tactics including having really hot girls strut around handing out info on a particular company.
im wondering why they need to rely on skin to attract people to their booth than drill samples. probally good short opportunities imho.

3. i introduced myself to the Miranda rep who ive held shares in for a long time, he was very nice, genuine and spent time answering my questions in a straightforward way. not being a big time fund manager or media rep i was impressed at his efforts and came away feeling that much better about my faith in the long term prospects of Miranda.

4. on the other hand i met the rep for Arian Silver who was very curt and offputting. i made an attempt to introduce myself and ask a few quick questions knowing there were others at their booth, but he avoided looking me in the eye and when i asked for his email contact for a few more detailed questions he stalled before giving me his email and said:
"i cant promise when ill get back to you, im really busy this week, and probally next week as well ok?"

i shook his hand and left, he was a 5'11 200 pound man and it was at best, a womans handshake.

nothing against the company as ill admit they have some decent land packages but such treatment makes me weary at times.

5. i heard Paul van eeded speak on sunday, ive always been a big fan of him but this was a disappointment of sorts. his speech had some interesting points as usual but it seemed he was more interested in peddling his $25 per month subscription and his upcoming $1000 per person gold conference. his speech was 10-15 minutes at best. i still respect him and his knowledge but came away somewhat disenchanted.

6. i caught Lou Rawlston on BNN and reaffirmed how much i respect his opinion and his no-nonsense delivery.

7. Overall i noticed the exicitment in the air but felt people may be poping the corks off champange a bit too soon, the JR's have taken a beating and gold could face a correction alongside the ongoing credit crunch, to me it seemed like cautious optimism should prevail before the JR's return to favour.

great show overall and hopefully next year i can get one of those passes that gets you into the delux trade show, that looked like alot more fun!

ABK: BANKS HAVE MADE FIRM COMMITMENT TO BACKSTOP MORE THAN HALF OF THE ABK OFFERING

What banks? And with what money are they going to backstop the ABK offering? How much money would it take to backstop half of the offering?

Dr.Cosa,
I think you saw Lawrence Roulston on BNN.

Dr. Cosa-

Thanks for the PDAC feedback....it's much appreciated.

df

I read on tickerforum.org that Gasparino came on real quickly this morning to break the news that the Ambac deal is backstopped by the banks! Someone is desperate to save the tape. This man should be in jail.

Cramer seems to have picked the top once more, this time in commodities. He is the unparalleled champion of buying the top tick.

The banking index is hanging by its fingernails.

Anyone else playing the short side of commodities today? after the cramer rant on commodities and rumors of margin requirements going up on gold (and probably other commodities), along with the pressures on hedge funds from margin calls (and knowing how much hedge funds have poured into all things commodities), i think a short term crash is in order.

i bought some DBA puts yesterday and some POT puts yesterday and today.

Quentusrex, can't answer your questions... simply posting news as it crosses the wires since ABK-related items had significant impact on intraday moves lately

closing shorts..

Jim Sinclair may have extreme views, but he has been right on gold since $248. IMO, he is one of the most knowledgeable people, if not the most knowledgeable person on the planet for macro views on gold. And he is willing to share those views for all who are interested at his website. It’s free like Bill’s, and like Bill has been at great personal expense dollar wise.

Maromatics recent gold price targets are the same as Sinclair’s, but Sinclair’s price targets have been forecast at least 3-6 months earlier. When it comes to gold this man is money in the bank!!!

To my knowledge he has not written any newsletters. It was from his web site that I learned of Cara’s web site. Sinclair was very favorable of your abilities and recommended to his readers to look at your site.

teamonfuego,I also went to the DBA puts yesterday
after seeing big volume (6000) on the april 40 puts
Afterwards I came across this article from seeking alpha on how the DBA has reached postion limits and is having to get creative with it's holdings http://tinyurl.com/2zj7tc

400 of GS @ 160.05..

stop @ 159.20 for GS

teamonfuego,
We aren't the only one seeing it
This from Todd Harrison at minyanville today

"I'm not making big bets right here, right now, because whichever way the fray snaps, we'll likely see some serious gappage. Instead, I've begun some feeler positions in DBA (agricultural ETF) and Pan American Silver (PAAS) puts, with defined risk on both. I know the best bets occur between the twenties, so to speak, so I'm being gentle as I corner these cusps"

EEM..

You are going to lose 350.00 real quick...

I have a target on GS down near 153.00...

Just hope this helps...

craig- not usually into a 'sit tight' strategy, but paying off today (so far)...do you have downside targets in mind?

Thinking of Calls on DUG and calls in DXD instead of puts on the DIA. DIA has best liquidity however. Rakin' a little this morning. ;) Any thoughts about calls on the 2x inverse?

QID- closing half at 54.28...betting on being able to add back...

I posted a rumor here on Friday night about banks pulling credit lines to hedge funds. It seems to be true as Focus Capital is the latest hedge fund to collapse when they could not make a margin call. More large liquidations are likely I would think.

http://tinyurl.com/38s9bs

Ah, thanks EEM I needed my daily dose of capitalization envy.

Last night I examined my 48 trades over the last 6 months. Made a nice little histogram, etc. I average a hair over 1%/trade, and quite a bit of it (lately, a majority) has been chewed up by commissions. Seriously, that pie chart looked like scottrade = pac-man.

So I'll be sitting on my gold & SRS for the forseeable future, and be much more careful when I enter or exit trades. Can't be jumping around or doing to much scaling at this level, with this brokerage.

Re: Tan Range Exploration Co (TNX)

I check insider filings of Cdn listed stocks every day, if I can.

A while ago - weeks/months? - I wondered about a series of trades by insider CEO James Sinclair, wherein he was buying and selling blocks in the open market at around the same price. At the time, I thought he might be churning. As I recall, I noticed this pattern 2 or 3 times.

If anyone is interested in this 'royalty play', you might want to check this out - starting with the public filings at SEDI.

DUG/SMN/QID-> taking profits on all here...JL was right...those able to both get it right and sit tight-> let's just say, hats off to BH...i can't do it ;)

Looks like the demise in CMBX indices (rise in spreads of bonds collaterized by real estate) has once again predicted accurately the demise of IYR (and increase in SRS). It is becoming almost too easy to make money. :)

I have reduced my SRS position somewhat today, by selling a little at 116 and a little at 120, but I am still keeping most of it (I kept buying SRS on the dips between 111 and 112). I'll probably place a sell stop order on it at 120, to guarantee my profit.

DavidV

Out on limb; April 40 calls DUG.
Betting on hedge fund trouble causing liquidations, removing some of the $20/bbl speculative premium in oil.

March 35 VIX calls from this AM are +67%. ;)

2nd: 11634 is the Jan intraday low. DOW theory says we need to get reasonably close to that. We got there, if I'm not mistaken, this week.
As said here by others though, the market likes round numbers so 12000-12100 seems to be the line they fight for. We bounced off 12103 so far, but 50 day is in a nosedive and we're underneath it.

I'm watching for the 50 dma cross up on a 5min/1day chart with some volume. It will be some rumor, company telling us all is wonderful...

2nd: XLF has made it to the 50 dma...
24.47, let's see....

DJIA very close....I bet not....

VIX up 11% with strong RSI and MACD. Forecasting an explosive move in the averages.

PPT indicator is neutral, so it could go either way.

EEMtrader or 2nd. Anyone have a thoughts here on SDS vs SP500. The SDS on a 10 min chart is following a nice trendline up so I can make a case to buy this until the trend breaks, or do I wait until I can see if the SP500 breaks below 1310?

2nd: OOOPS! we got there (Jan lows) with the nasdaq and S&P, not the DJIA. Yet.

geckojb: How long you want to hold that trade..price or time target?

With respect to Sinclair here is his formula which will drive gold prices. At least three years old.

Jim’s Formula:
1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral

ALOHA !!

Here is the JIM SINCLAIR Q&A SESSION AT THE PDAC TENT link.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2wovff

I made a Google document. Happy reading!

I've been reading jsmineset.com for a few months. He is both very smart and yet very alarmist, but in a measured, not hysterical, way. Today he says that he can not keep up with the thousands of emails he gets a day from readers, which means he has been attempting to answer every email.

He has been recommending to take physical delivery of stock certificates if you are going to hold long term.

Geckojb: If that spx crosses the 30min/10 move ave..odss are we just kissed the low ...for today...wouldnt short at such oversold levels ..but thats ignorant me..

money can be made lots of ways..which side do you think the reward to risk is leaning at this levels.... for the next week?

:)

BG: Thanks for you note and watching out for me..kinda close to my stop there for a while.. lets see how this plays out..still early in the day..

$153 eh? At least its higher than the analyst from barrons that quoted GS @ $125. :) we may get there by summer...

EEM...

Just a tradable bounce from that level..IMO...

Lower, yes...But always have to look for those tradable bounces...

BG: GS is crawling like a wounded puppy..slower than the spy ...poor gurl is hurt bad...at least michael vix is in jail

2nd,

Funny.......I often wish that I could trade like you do, but not everyone is cut out to be a daytrader. Different styles for different personalities. BTW, my finger has hovering over the sell button all day.

Regards

EEM..

Looks to be putting in a tiny wedge...Should have direction answer soon..

dang they just hit that stop...you may be right..definitnley a day to generate commissions for these HB&B

EEM...GS..Put that 153.00 level in the back of your mind...and wait...

Long-term account: just moved from all cash (since late July 2007) to 100% Fidelity Contrafund. I'll watch this for a possible break of the trendline June 2006 through Feb 2008 - if that occurs I'll be 100% cash again.

This is my smallest long-term account - all others still 100% cash since late July 2007.

Dave

BG..OK...u used a Fib level to ocme up with 153?

Dave: That cash is killing your buying power. Probably down 10% since last summer. Late now, but consider something like FXF or FXY. GLD, or something other than the greenback.

One can't be out of the market; you are just 100% in the USD currency market, and that one trades 24/7.

Kaimu, when I click on the link to the Sinclair report, I get a "Welcome to Gmail" page. How do I access this report? Thank you.

Kaimu, that link doesn't work, at least for me. It takes me to the Google login page, and after I log in, it takes me to my own mail. I tried a second time, and I still got the same sequence, even after I logged in.

EEM, good try, excellent discipline.

BG, me too, how did you derive a 153 target?

geck-

my main concern is tomorrow's employment report...guessing it will add to recession fears, but what if it doesn't? then today becomes a bear trap, and the pre-market gap up will give stops no chance...so i'm leaning towards staying out and definitely no positions into the close...

PDAC was great, and meeting the Caraistas in attendance was fantastic. What a great group of people! I was sorry I had to leave early to attend to other important projects. The atmosphere at PDAC was very high-energy, and I think over the next few years it will become absolutely electric if trends continue to play out as they currently are.

Bill: hopefully we should be able to put you into contact with Sinclair over the next few months; he strives to be accessible, as you do.

Jock: You are a wonderful leader and person, and I very much look forward to working with you on the Cara Juniors project, and perhaps on other projects as well.

Joey: You are definitely the Dame of Due Diligence, and Delightfully funny to boot! Thanks for your continuous good advice and humour.

Aussie: You are a cool dude and have big success ahead for sure.

To everyone: So happy we met, exchanged, and look forward to keeping in touch. I will have to check with some of you what your online handle is to synch with offline identities.

Look forward to next year already.

Geez...GS in your face....Nice entry here...support at 156-157....153?...you guys should be ashamed of yourselves....:>)

Aurator - I have very limited options in that long-term account (401K that I never rolled over). Good point that you make though about the dollar being down.

Dave

I realize those that attended PDAC have probably not settled in yet and have pads and pads of notes to go through...but I was wondering if anyone spoke with Khan Resources (kri) and/or Martin on the future of company and Mongolian gov.

I was planning on attending and providing this update but with three kids under 5, it was not in the cards. Thanks in advance!

GS, all I can see that on 9/11/06 GS closed at 151 and on 9/12/06 opened at 154.75. So 153 is in the gap. Is that your basis for 153? Quite interesting actually.

Dave: Roll that 401K into an IRRA that you have full control over. Did it with my old one into Fidelity. Since then I have used the internal gains to pay the tax and move it to a Roth. You will be much happier in the long run, IMHO.

Aurator - in reality I should do exactly that - and I may well do so. It's small enough that I simply never took the time to do so - I know that sounds irresponsible, but we all have those nagging little things in life that we just haven't done yet...

IRRA - how does that differ from an IRA?

Dave

Aurator, btw, I really appreciated your perspective on being in cash as if I were trading the wrong side of the currency markets...

Makes a lot of sense.

Dave

ALOHA !!

THE JIM SINCLAIR Q&A SESSION AT THE PDAC TENT

Okay sorry I skipped the "publish" part to the internet. Try the link below ...

Link: http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dc6mmqj7_0gd8nxmcg

I did not use TINY URL this time so maybe it will work. Let me know if it does not.

it's the individual retirement reversion account..

Dave: IRRA is what they call it (iirc)... individal rollover retirement account.

Then if you use internal proceeds to pay the income tax and move it to a Roth, you only pay the 10% penalty on the amount of tax payment. It's a nit in the grand scheme. I paid the tax on the IRA under Bush and unless they change the rules I'm tax free, Fed, State, City.

aka individual reverse retirement account...

ALOHA !!

Never mind I just tested it and it works for me!

I am right in the midst of printer problems AGAIN!! DAMN !!

No time to blog ...

Someone's shakin' the tree....kinda like the "Hammerhead" at the fair where you had to have a friend hold your money...or lose it to the carney.

S&P 1310...gone

Re..GS...Just reading the tea leaves and looking into a broken crystal ball...:^)...

I looked at GS again...153.00 in my min downside pojection to a possible 143.50 below that I have no idea...

I will watch to see what it does once we hit that level and what the overall market is doing..Then look for a tradeable bounce...

Prev. low for XLF 24.11 in your grill.

careful- think bear trap if this is happening at 3pm...

Think.....
It's Thursaday......we test lows/exceed on S&P/NAZ...almost on DJIA. Bounce off at close to gap up Friday, leave in a good mood with Mom&Pops $$$ to party over the weekend...more kick the can...a world's record.

IRAs- seriously, until they invented inverse ETFs (thus allowing you to short), may as well be investing with your hands tied behind your back...

2nd: How about flipping the trade, short the ultras...or QLD, etc.?

GS is going to go through 153 like Paris goes through puppies. Or Valtrex.

MikeNYC:Go snort some gold powder please and fondle some socks...:)

Now there's a surprise..Gasparino right on cue at 3:30. Seriously Charlie, it's a bit played out.

EEMTrader, sorry I had to step away for a while. I decided to take the SDS trade shortly after posting based on the 60d 60m trend line. So my time frame was, is to hold it until a trend line break. Too simplistic? Just looking to hedge some longs here is all.

craig- in deference to the fact that we simultaneously posted bear trap warnings at 319p, taking a small position in QQQQ at 42.50...however, plan to be out by close either way...;)

CMG - grabbing another tasty mouthful on the short side of this one. (Sold MAR 105 calls a couple of days ago.)

Like I said - CMG will be one that keeps on giving all the way down. I don't care how many shops they plan to open this year, this fad stock is just too rich. And their cost of goods has to be skyrocketing.

"Thank you sir, may I have another cash carnitas?"

Oh yeah, I sold MAR 40 calls on PNRA a week or so ago. Just like CMG: it's a nice, tasty lunch, but I'm selling the upside of fad food stocks. Thanks, Panera. I'll take my sandwich with a side of CASH!

valtrex? that's cold, man...

Still holding SDS,DUG,FXP from last Thursday.

I hope 2nd is wrong and we tank tomorrow.

I might sell tomorrow.

Bought puts on BIDU earlier when it touched top of resistance. Waiting for this sucker to break.

This last attempt at SPO 1310 looks like the goods.

Still holding SRS (107 basis) and SKF (99 basis) here wondering when to sell. I'm thinking tomorrow if the market is down again even a little. I want to sell before the Fed meeting and have time to reload.

Fear and greed, fear and greed.

These two have blasted off into outer space but I fear gravity will pull them back down.

JVS3..sell NOW, when you dont have to...great nite sleep ..fat profits...you can reload again..

Mar 35 VIX, out for 100% one day; opened Apr 80 puts IYT.

Yeah, I sold. May have been a few minutes early. I'll see more tomorrow and next week I guess.

Sitting on a lot of cash now hoping for some pumping to reload.

Uncle Sam will be happy with me (I see my tax lady tomorrow).

Look at this curve. At some point, unemployment's gonna spike hard & the market isn't gonna like it.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

do ya feel lucky, punk? well do ya?

holding short overnight.

so much for that idea...out

Anyone aware of any inverse(short) ETFs for the Ag sector?

The banking index is collapsing under 77 (January lows). Next leg down seems to be here.

Wow, still too distracted with work to follow market closely, but tomorrow we could get test of 1290 on SPX tomorrow.

The Citi news after the bell should make that a certainty tomorrow morning.

Deutche Bank is supposed to offer inverse Agriculture ETF (and a bunch of other inverse commodity), but I can't find the symbol or data.

I tried some puts on DBA today, picked Apr 40.

GFI in the low 16s, AH, for some reason.

...as I mentioned several weeks ago it would be "better" if we could retest the Jan 22 & 23rd lows before further advance, looks like that is imminent now... will be looking for strong buying down there, if not seen, mind your air bags...

Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

Good Afternoon Bill and Company,

First of all, I am so disappointed in you 2nd ave re-TMA. This morning you proclaimed Thornburg dead when you should have been buying it for a mammoth day trade. My faith is shaken. My style has never been to buy stocks that are crashing at the speed of light, I have other methods of entering stocks but today
I started to wonder...Are they steel, titanium or perhaps a softer alloy? (Juuuuust kidding)

A peek into the future if I might. Gold will, in my humble one, have a darn difficult time reaching the spectacular price targets that I'm hearing about, for two simple reasons. First reason is, money is tight, and most of the bulls are on board. Second reason is, I would be surprised if Bernanke is allowed to continue to pursue his inflate-at-all-costs strategy. Hilbama won't reappoint him, and McCain would feel pressure not to continue this policy (read: no reappointment for uncle Ben).

I also feel that in addition to those things, one thousand dollars an ounce is, to put it gently, a significant psychological barrier. Unlike oil, gold, let us remember, doesn't actually do a goddamn thing so it's value is largely an accepted one based on historical notions of worth, which, in our modern age, MAY not prove valid. what I'm trying to say is, you'd have to be nuts to pay a thousand an ounce for gold. so in short, change is coming to Washington, Bernanke the crazy mishugina World banking conspiracist will be stopped dead in his tracks, and this dollar devaluation will slow and finally stop. Many of my wealthy associates are not happy about what's happening to the currency, and there is rock-hard (sorry 2nd) opposition to the policy being pursued and this policy will come to and end, by force if necessary. Or to put it another way, a funny thing happened on the way to easy street.....They made the money worthless, and the rich are screaming like scorched cats. when predicting history, never bet against the rich.

Love you guys, over and out.

Re: $1000/oz. bullion.

Its already here. Bullion traders are selling their ounces above $1000/oz.

$1040 for American Eagles

http://www.bordergold.com/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=29

Inflation adjusted high for gold is ~$2500/oz, but all things considered, other say ~$1200/oz. is the correct number, cutting out the speculative froth.

Look at Dollar Index below 72.9!!!

OK, Gramma (bless her soul) gave me this GE stock, basis about 1. I wanted to sell this summer around the high, but chickened out for tax considereations and sentiment. Any thoughts?
Thanks for helps

SAfrica to allow mines to up power use to 95 pct

JOHANNESBURG, March 6 (Reuters) - South Africa will allow the country's mines to increase power usage to 95 percent from this week because the country's power crisis has stabilised, a spokesman for the minerals and energy minister said on Thursday.

"That is the plan, and it should be this week," Sputnik Ratau told Reuters by telephone from Washington. "The country's supply has stabilised since February."

"It won't be all at once for all mines, we will phase in the process. Because you can imagine if it is all at the same time there is a risk of overloading the system."

Kaimu, AA, and Telestar: I know that all of you read Jim Sinclair; I’ve been a regular at his site since gold was at about $340. He’s an amazingly knowledgeable and generous person, but I do sometimes have a hard time understanding the reasoning behind some of his advice—which, to many people, does seem extreme at times. But he is right so often that a little voice in my head tells me to at least consider following that advice. I’m not referring to his advice about gold—I’m talking about the measures he says we should take to protect ourselves from the possibility of a systemic financial meltdown.

I understand the risks of bank and broker insolvency and have taken steps to move assets from shaky institutions. But I don’t understand why Sinclair says to avoid all Internet banks and brokerages. Does he mean "Internet only" banks and brokers? Is the danger that there will be a "run" on an online bank and that it will be impossible to withdraw or transfer one's funds, because the web site is too busy or has been shut down?

Many online brokers also have physical locations, obviously. So, if one uses Fidelity, Scottrade, or TD Ameritrade, for example, it would be possible to visit a branch office to transact business if the web site were unavailable, right? Doug Casey has addressed the issue of broker insolvency by suggesting that investors have accounts with identical titles at different brokers, in the event that assets have to be transferred quickly; he says that securities can be transferred overnight through a Depository Trust Company.

But back to Sinclair’s advice: What makes online discount brokers, such as Scottrade or Interactive Brokers, any riskier than full-service brokers such as Morgan Stanley, with its mountain of derivative junk? Why would I be better off working with a local stockbroker, who makes the standard sell-side recs and collects big commissions? Or a financial planner who charges exorbitant commissions to sell investment products that usually underperform? I’ve been down that road and don’t intend to repeat that mistake—I much prefer to manage my own portfolio.

In any case, Sinclair has suggested that using online discount brokers to save money can cost you money in the long run. Hmmm—if you have done your DD and carefully monitor your online broker(s), why should that be the case? I’m much more worried about the solvency of Morgan Stanley, with their huge exposure to derivative junk, than I am about TD Ameritrade, which claims to have very little exposure to toxic financial waste. In any case, I welcome all comments on this topic.

Kaimu: Would you mind telling me why you trust the Perth Mint for allocated metal but not for unallocated? Also, do you know why Sinclair advises against an investment in Perth Mint certificates?

Why don’t I ask Sinclair these questions? I already have, via e-mail, but have gotten no answers; he simply doesn’t have the time to respond to everyone. Thanks to one and all.

There is very little speculative froth in Gold investments. Most investors don't care. Fast Money Najarian called it a "BS" commodity and likes oil. I'll try not to fall asleep during the 2nd half of Fast Money this time.

My .0000002 (inflation adjusted)

1. Gold will seem cheap at 1000, the way 600 seems cheap.

2. I don't buy the "precious metals just sit there" argument. I'm down with Fekete, who basically says that argument is what "they" want you to believe, when in fact "they" have found a way to make a nice living hoarding piles of metal. The income from shorting and selling options is, apparently, quite nice and those who do it prefer their business stay on the DL.

I've proposed starting exactly such a fund several times, including to our host, acquiring large amounts of silver and deriving income from option selling and appreciation. But it's hard to raise a couple hundred mil these days, at least for me.

But the argument about any metal just sitting in a hole not earning anything, these days, doesn't hold up. At least, if you know what you are doing.

3. The psychological effect of 1000 will mean nothing. We will blow through it, pull back, go past again, then pull back, just like any other number. In fact, I bet we spend less time passing 1000 than we did trying to get off 666. The psychological effect is "baked in" from being discussed so much. Everyone seems to think 1000 will be hard to get by. So if "Everyone" thinks it...

See you at 1200.

Gold is the only asset that is real money. It is the exact opposite of a CDO or RMBS. There is no counter party risk and it owes nothing to noone. It is so valuable for it's ability to protect wealth, that people hoard it with no dividends.

Most all of the Gold ever mined is still in existence in an investment form, as compared to Silver which is commercially consumed into uneconomically recoverable refuse. All of the Gold ever mined would fit into a cube about 20 meters on a side.

The entrie market cap of ALL the PM miners combined is less than a major corporation like GE. Imagine what would happen if everyone in the world decided GE stock was a great place to put money at the same time, like we will see when Gold Fever emerges.

peter, I've seen GE mentioned quite positively because they are moving into the alternative energy and infrastructure area in a big way. But *cough* we are in a bear market....

Peter Grant: Are you Canadian or American?
Is Grandma still with us or did she leave it in a will?

If American and through/in a will then I believe you get the new basis (the price when it was given to you), not $1.

I'm no help to my Canadian friends....unless you want cheap smokes and a couple bottles when I visit, which I trade for 222's.

Thanks Craig I'm US, gifted not willed, though she shuffled off quite a few yrs ago. I get the 222's when I go to Canada, where wife is from!

PDAC - re: KRI.to Khan Resources Inc.

I visited the booth and spoke to Martin. I met him before at the Cambridge Resource show at the same location in the fall of 2007. He must be on the go a lot because when I said it was good to see him again, he thought we had met at the Denver gold show also held last fall. His sidekick at the booth told him they were in Toronto for the Cambrige show. As a side note it appears in talking to some of the exhibitors that the Denver show was the one to attend.

Martin is a tall person, basketball in stature. Not much to report from my chat with them on Monday.

Just to say that there are a lot of "IF's" with tradable stocks in Mongolia. There is an election coming up in this country and there is no knowing who will be in control. Looks like the country is going to play hard ball. Also it appears that all mining companies in the country are waiting to see the contract with Ivanhoe finalized as it will be the template for all the others waiting to sign permitting agreements. I would think that China would be lobbying to get some control over mining here. A great place for China to put their US dollars to work.

This is just my opinion though.

Mentioned GIX.v to Bill when I saw him Sunday afternoon. Glad he was upbeat with his assessment later at the show.

PDAC was a great show for me. First time attendance. A great chance to meet some of the exhibitors from the Cambridge Resource Show and follow-up with them developments over the last 4 months. Didn't appear to be much more news than what I learned last fall. Didn't have the energy to attend the evening events. Did get an invite to attend the Rob McEwen event on Tuesday night and a couple of others. Maybe next year. Let's face it, the show floor is great, but the real meat and potatoes are found off the floor. [032]

1bullseye, here are a few inverse commodity etf's to research:-
DCE - oil bear DUG - ultrashoer oil & gas
HBD.to - bullion - bear HED.TO - energy bear HGD.TO - gold bear
HOD.TO - 2x oil bear
SMN - ultrashort basic materials

joey
I also have watched the insider trades on TNX, I think (and I can be corrected if wrong) that Sinclair trades are just the result of his steady tranches. He continually lends the company money and then getting shares back in 3 or 4 quartely tranches where he gets the average price for the last 7-10 days. Last I looked his opening position and closing position where within thousands. So I got the feeling he is maintaining a certain per centage of stock. I have not looked lately though.

Here is one of the best resumes of corruption I have read, posted recently by London Banker on Roubini's site:

"The way endemic corruption takes hold in a country starts at the top. "The fish rots from the head." And when people the next tier down see the boss dipping his hand in, they feel they have his authority to start extracting bribes and siphoning off the public budget to wives, girlfriends and cronies too. Then the next level of career bureaucrats sees all this going on and no one worried, and they start selling a bit of influence to get this regulation fixed or that regulation waived. Maybe it's the promise of a great job with huge benefits in the private sector when they retire that makes them complicit, but they become complicit. They identify with those in a position to enrich them more than the public they were hired to serve. Then the underlings think, "What the hell! Me too!" and soon every auditor, inspector, policeman, fireman, dog catcher is on the take to get the most they can get out of their "public service" job. And then the public catches on and sees all their tax money going to insiders, elites, corporate cronies and corrupt mobs and they start fiddling their taxes, hiding a bit offshore, taking money under the table and fraudulently claiming public benefits. Pretty soon you have a banana republic where everyone is complicit in the corruption.

Bush & Co. have always been corrupt. From taking money from daddy's friends the Bin Ladens to selling influence as governor to war profiteering from oil and defense interests as president. America has the most corrupt presidential administration since US Grant - maybe the most corrupt of all time.

And every Republican appointee in the Bush administration has been keen to make the most of it and take while the getting is good. Selling influence, earmarks, regulatory exemptions, special favours, drilling rights, casino licenses, whatever. Gonzales and Mukasey at Justice means none of it will ever be investigated or prosecuted. GOP judges mean none of it will ever stick. A rubber stamp Congress has backed off on all investigations and won't even enforce its own subpeonas against the major criminals who've admitted federal crimes like outing CIA agents and rigging the appointment of federal prosecutors.

And so the corruption cascades down, to the Fed, the OCC, the state bank regulators, the insurance regulators - everyone who could score a high bonus career for selling a bit of influence.

And now it is spreading to hard working, principled middle class guys like our Rich H.

If he goes, the whole society spirals down a long, long way. Which is why I want you - and everyone else here - to take a deep breath, ask yourself what kind of people you want in "public service", and work your butts off to get them into office over the next decade. It will take at least that long. Pay attention to who is running and ignore the storyline the media wants you to buy. Pay attention to policy issues because they will hit your wallet.

There is more pressure for corruption during a bust than a boom, because there is less to go around. Our governments are not necessarily on our side - and we should all be worried.
Written by London Banker on 2008-03-04 14:24:48

sharkie-

good to see you posting more often...as you know, the road to hell is paved with titanium...unless you are(were) klaus kinski, driving the wrong way at high speed on the autobahn with your eyes closed not normally recommended (although i understand if you try it with santa marta gold being passed around and two heinekens nestled next to the titanium while driving you might actually pull it off...)..let me know if that works for you...;)

craig- what's your take? i think if employment numbers come in high, market gaps up and it's still (or it was) a bear trap...if they come in low, then it gaps down and denies (re)entry into ultrashorts...hard to say which direction causes maximum frustration...personally, glad to be flat and able to sleep well tonight...

I believe(but without any hard evidence) that the numbers will be bad numbers tomorrow. My only reservation is that the employment numbers from Wednesday "weren't that bad."

2nd: Check your mail....Add agreement with your assessment as to determining direction and motivation.

PDAC - FNX.to FNX Mining Company Inc.

Thanks Bill for the feedback. Will look into the Quebec situation.

I feel like blogging tonight.

FNX is one company I will be doing some more research on. Went to their technical presentation. The blue suits in front of me (unknown which company they were from) were joking before the presentation about the Elton John concert on the weekend. They seemed to be in a good mood, so I think the mining situation looks positive.

Before the FNX session I went to the Lake Shore Gold Corp technical presentation and was very impressed. Learned a lot about their project and got a good lesson on mine start-up and milling. I have no opinion on the prospects.

The FNX presentation blew my mind. After a power point presentation, we put on our 3-D glasses and went flying around the underground rock of Northern Ontario. I felt like "Superman". FNX has properties previous explored by INCO. We first saw the drill hole data from Inco in 3-D. The presentation showed us one drill that missed a major deposit by mere metres. The drill results came up zippo way back when. Little did the geologists know that they missed a big strike.

It is hard to put in words what I saw, but we went down mining tunnels and for fun the presenters placed photos on the data of sections of the mine. We went up and down, left and right looking at the data in 3 dimensions. I was spellbound. Then they explained they went next door to the neighbouring company and asked if they could drill from their underground works into the FNX property. These drill results were then shown to us in on the screen. They say a picture is worth a thousands words. This presentation was worth a million words. Drifts and faults in the rock showed up on the projection. If this were the old west, I would have said this was snake oil.

Also I was impressed with the Quebec mining prospects at the show. Seems they have a wide open door invitation to the miners. Similar to the invite by Saskatchewan.

Mali was a country that I never thought of for mining, but I kept bumping into a lot of miners setting up business in this West-African country. Had a very good impression from the various mining reps of the opportunities there.

There was so much at the show that I could talk about. Looking forward to Jock's, Aussieontop's and other Caraistas' impressions. Yes, we need a suite or just a coffee shop we can commander for our use. lol.

I have no position now or in the past in any of the companies mentioned in today's commentary. [033].

mikede and anyone else interested in Sinclair's Tanzanian Royalty:

seeing Mikede's post at 7:25pm, I went to Sedi to take a quick look at Sinclair's trades.

Earlier I posted that I remembered seeing transactions that made wonder if James Sinclair was churning. I have not done serious research on TNX and my observations were in the context of daily filings, like, say, on Oct 16, JS bought 8000 at $5.74 and sold 8000 at $5.54.

I just did a quick look at JS transactions from Aug 14,07 to feb 19,08, on the basis of which I am still wondering. I haven't time to do a precise summary; but here are some highlights:
-69 transactions in this interval

- aug 14 -63,345 purchased privately at $5.92 and the successive 16 transactions are sales in the open market in lots of a few thousand or more, many at lower prices
- nov 15 - 63,993 purchased privately and successive transactions are sales into the open market, with many at lower prices
-several small purchases in the market and simultaneous sales, as above, at lower prices at times

So, aug and nov acquisitions...maybe these are quarterly entitlements - I haven't checked the financials or management discussion thereof - but he doles those shares in multiples

joey here ...continuing... having inadvertently posted an incomplete observation...

it seems to me that JS is doling out these shares - in TNX, which is quite thinly traded at times, as I recall - without regard to his acquisition costs with several instances of paired trades.

Worth checking if your interested in this 'pattern'.

Has anyone found an investment vehicle for Rhodium?

Joey at March 6, 2008 1:38 PM
RE: Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation

Yes you got my interest and had to do a little digging, I see Mikede has also replied along the same lines as my research is digging up but I'll add my comments also just in case you or someone else wants to take it further.

Yes the data on SEDI is quite extensive and looks like he is a bit of a daytrader. Usually I see lots of trading when the insiders are continually getting options and warrants which are coming due thus there is always some selling & buying around those trades. But James doesn't have any granted options / warrants just a few call options he bought in the open market.

What he does do as Mikede stated is loan the company money, private placement in tranches of company stock, that stock is then locked up for some period of time, (don't know how long). Thus I'm suspecting hes just buying the tranches as they come due and selling the older stock as it comes off lockup. So a little buying and selling each month, which is what makes it look like alot of churn for no reason other than to create volume on the stock. I took a quick look at the outstanding share increase over the last few years and it looks like about equal to the share James has brought into the market thru his private placements.

So all things considered right now I look at it as a positive, he's bring shares into the market at market price and turning them over to the public at market price. If the company went to HB&B they would be buying below market, getting warrants, manipulating the price, selling off higher to the public, ie less shareholder value and more dilution.

Without knowing much about how all this works this is only my opinion based on a little research.

And yes Joey I see you've done some more digging, I still think its along the lines I've discovered above.

Aurator:
Re: Rhodium
I don't know of any pure play but junior miner Anooraq - ARQ.v; ANO.a- includes it as a resource along with platinum, gold, etc.

As I recall - very stuffed with info here; hence muddled - Peter Grandich has been promoting Anooraq for a while.

I don't know Rhodium from a podium; but a few months ago on BNN tv, Robert Cohen was flashing his expensive cufflinks before the tv camera. I think they were Rhodium. Is that possible? Is Rhodium used to make cufflinks for successful precious metals fund managers? He works for Dynamic Funds. Junior Miners wouldn't have helped his year end numbers. Maybe Cohen's cufflinks are for sale.

Hope this helps.

geezer52- keep your eyes on XLF and TLT...financials at this point appear vulnerable- if i were a LT investor in any of the banks/brokerages, would be prone to capitulation as the 'last straw' gets tossed...at which point you may see the emergency rate cuts that may in turn get you into the short bond trade of a lifetime...

1.) Have traded TRE for years. Trading vehicle, no major thrust. All hat, needs cattle. And at these feed prices...

2.) Let my RRPIX go today, expecting a bad employment report combined with an anticipated 3000pt Dow decline, many will flee to LT Bonds. After the next Fed cut and the carnage, will reload 2x RRPIX. My position varied about -1% to + 6% and with any luck I'm out with +4%. Fidelity $75 fee for less than 180 days, but its lost in the noise.

Out for the night... making a batch of Chili as comfort food for a cold TX night. Bought beef for the freezer today in light of the cattle "liquidation" due to high feed costs. Ethanol strikes again. Suggest those not vegetarians do the same. "Visit for the Beef, stay for the angioplasty."

rhodium bid/ask 9310/9410 an ounce? sharkie- forget titanium, my friend..it's rhodium...

ALOHA !!

Okay ... I'm free for a bit here! Awesome 82 sunny blue Hawaiian sky with the trades kickin' in!! I'm doing some tractor work and an appropriate Led Zepplin song for the masses "Trampled Under Foot", select #6 on side one of Physical Graffiti on my Sony Discman! No IPod here! This year we will have a bumper crop of everything mostly mangoes and papayas and ulu!!

Bill ... excellent letters from Cara pals you posted and I agree with you 100% about the attorneys in this World ... not just at PDAC! Whats the game? Invent your own language complicate it with ever changing rules then charge people ridiculous sums to interpret the legalese and you get paid whether you win or lose! WHAT A SWEET DEAL!! Non-performance is not an issue!!! More welfare please! I have been through a lot of attorneys in my life and I only met one that I could be friends with. One that had decent humane values beyond his fee! In fact he gave me back $20,000!! Not all of them are "fee based"!!! HA!!!

SharkA ... good luck! I wonder how it is you are so sure? What are you basing this confidence on? Nobody here on this blog has ever lived through a monetary crisis combined with a total real estate meltdown and $560tril derivatives meltdown coupled with $330bilUSD money supply growth monthly. Maybe a few here have been through a real World War with actual rations and War Bonds and all, but nobody has ever seen a US Dollar crash to a US Peso!

MikeNYC ... What Fekete says works until supply is gone or fiat collapses. Our creditors will want payment and not in the same old crappy IOUs. We do have creditors or has everyone forgotten about that part of the deal? I know the US Congress has! The US Congress considers "We The People"(US government owes the SS/MED Trust Fund $40tril)force majeure, where we are expendable, but they can't BK the foreigners holding our debt and dollars(one in the same)without some serious consequences financially and militarily. Are the Russians and Chinese signing joint military pacts for fun? Are their military budgets skyrocketing because they are bored with all their new industrial wealth? Hum-m-m-m-m??? There's a shift that has been going on while we are busy playing footsie here with Obama and Hillary at the collesium(TV)!

THE SIMPLICITY OF GOLD

Such a barbarous relic isn't it? Just heavy yellow stuff that sits there collecting dust for 5,000 years!

This is how I look at it. Gold is the King of simplicity in terms of risk. This is where so many miss the boat! I will be honest with you guys ... I CANNOT FIND A SAFE US BANK! In fact a number of global banks aren't safe either, mostly the biggest ones! For Christ's sake not even a money market or muni is safe anymore. If its unsafe to save what's left that is safe? Not even FDIC is stable!

HB&B can complicate the investment jargon and cloud the issues all they want with hired gun attorneys and geek programmers who got rejected by American Idol. The truth is you can dress up all this high risk leveraged debt any way you want ... in ETFs ... in CDOs ... in SIVs ... in ABCP ... in ARS ... in FNM ... in C ... in GE ... its all still garbage! RISK IS GARBAGE! The BIGGER the RISK the STINKIER the GARBAGE! Its all garbage because it is all tied to the BIGGEST STINKIEST HIGH RISK GARBAGE there is ... FIAT! Fiat combines the worst of the human condition and then magnifies it into debt measured by many hundreds of trillions of risky global paper IOUs! At the end of the day when you cash in your leveraged SHARK PROFITS you wad up paper IOUs backed by the "faith and credit" of the US government and its faux-constitutional Treasury. If you can live with that kind of risk then you are a better man than I, because I cannot! I am willing to bet there are many more billions of people(mostly Asians)that will turn to the only monetary investment that exists in the World with ZERO LIABILITY! Yes, $1,000USD per ounce is more than $300USD ... Is $2,000USD more than $1,000? Is $4.00 gas more than $1.00 gas? There's a link there that many are blind to!

willa ... Non-allocated is available everywhere(even Kitco and GoldMoney)and can be tampered with. Why take the risk if you are serious about owning the real deal? Allocated is like having your own insured "sock drawer" at the Mint! I trust that more. Jim Sinclair does not offer enough info on "certificates" for me to say what his reasons are. All I know is he sticks to his guns about having nothing between you and your money(or gold)! I trust the Perth Mint ... I have been there three times and I lived in Perth for six years! Has anyone here ever been there? I doubt even Jim Sinclair has been there ...

Joey: Thanks! Starting to look for Rhodium plays. Was shoping at the Swarovski shop last weekend, and find they plate the best stuff with Rhodium. It's the most reflective and I do not believe it forms an oxide layer (?). Used for searchlight mirrors. Will break $10K per oz soon. Gotta think that has nowhere to go but up, like Indium and Cobalt.

You have to ask the Sw. sales rep for the product info to verify Rhodium plate.

http://tinyurl.com/ywqd3c

TNX
I owned this from 05 to 06 and haven't had it since. But I believe it is setting up for another big pop (when, I don't have a clue) Sinclair is all about the royalty program followed by Royal Gold and Franco Nevada. That was his intention from day one with this company. However after drilling some holes around Lake Victoria all of a sudden he states that they are keeping this project for themselves??? Sinclair ran Sutton resources until he sold it to Barrick in 1999-2000 Sutton had the Bulyanhulu gold deposit in Tanzania. He stayed in the area, he knows the area. I believe he is in a rich mineral area, country and financial risk aside if the juniors start another leg up, I will be riding this pony again.

kaimu- you've finally got me looking into the perth mint....

excerpts re process, security, and confidentiality:

"The Perth Mint Certificate gives you legal title to precious metals held by The Perth Mint on either a segregated (allocated) or unsegregated (unallocated) basis. The Certificate is in your name and identified by a Certificate number. The PMCP is also the only Government Guaranteed certificate program in the world, making it one of the safest ways to own precious metals."

"There are two main aspects to the program. An investor can select either Allocated (segregated) or Unallocated (unsegregated) storage. Both allocated or unallocated storage accounts are covered by a Western Australian Government Guarantee so the main difference, as far as the investor is concerned is that there are NO storage fees on the unallocated option.

"With the Unallocated (unsegregated) Bullion You have title to unspecified precious metal deposited in a metal account. You pay only the precious metal cost at the time of your purchase. You pay NO storage fees on this option.

"With the Allocated (segregated) Coins or Bars (Gold and Silver only) You own title to specific coins and/or bars, which are placed in a physical form in the PMCP storage facility. You pay the quoted precious metal cost, fabrication charges and storage fees at the time of your purchase. Storage fees are based on the purchase value of your precious metal at the time of purchase, so your storage costs will not rise if precious metal prices increase. Annual storage fees are collected every three years in arrears, with one year's storage payable at time of purchase."

"The Perth Mint Certificate Program is the only Government Guaranteed precious metal accumulation program in the world. It is owned by the Gold Corporation, a unique diversified Australian precious metals group created by statute in 1987, and wholly owned by the Government of Western Australia.

"Transaction confidentiality is provided for under the Gold Corporation Act 1987 and the Perth Mint Certificate Program's administrative procedures."

kaimu
I was at the Sinclair meeting, he stated that he didn't know anything about the Perth Mint, in fact he had never even heard of it, so he asked a contact in Australia and he relayed his negative response. Which I also thought at the time was inappropriate as Sinclair new nothing about the Mint. On another note
Do you still like cnu amd mor?

ALOHA !!

joey ... I first recommended ANO here a few years ago. I owned ANO and NAK at the same time prior to even Grandich's involvment. I have posted on both here many times. Good companies with great management and some great deposits and deep pockets. Part of the HD Group incubator.

Rhodium(Rh) is used for everything from coating jewelry to motor windings, to auto catalysts, to thermocouplers, electrodes and optics.

Only Rhenium(Re)has a spot price higher than Rhodium. Rhenium is a by-product of molybdenum(Mo). It is a superconductor and has one of the highest melting points of all metals(3186C/5767F). Thats hot!! Used in everything from catalysts to xray and jet engine parts. The Last time I looked Rhenium spot price was $10,850USD on the ask. Thats $1,500USD more than Rhodium.

Just some FYIs ...

Kaimu: You are of like mind! Please keep the ideas coming. I used to be a Chemistry junkie and love the rare metals plays. That's why I find myself overweight Palladium bars for no good reason, and am not complaining.

Think we're just getting started here. I started my career as a rocket scientist and have worked my way down until I got an MBA. Everyone has to find a bottom before they can seek help.

I think with a few good rare metals plays in the bank, one can sit back into retirement and let population growth do the rest. Richard Band would like. Hope to see Band in Las Vegas; if not at the presentation, at the TT bar. ;)

ALOHA !!

mikede ... I only go by what my friend sent me via e-mail and it was not enough info for me to know what Jim Sinclair actually thought other than what his Aussie mates thought. I met with twelve Aussie GATA blokes and sheilahs in Perth all of them love the Perth Mint and all have "allocated" only. I find it hard for someone who owns so much gold like Sinclair does, to not have heard of an institution like the Perth Mint that has been around for 105 years! Has he ever heard fo the Canadian Mint? How about the Franklin Mint? HA!!! Even England(the country)used the Perth Mint to coin British Sovereigns back in 1935 ...

YES ...
I own both CNU and MOR and I have been buying at these lows.

MY TOP PICK FOR 2008 IS ECU SILVER(ECU.TO/ECUXF.PK) I bought ECU last a couple weeks ago at $1.75. It was in its AZ !!! I know of no other Canadian junior whose potential is so huge and share price so battered. Look at the last few news releases. They were at PDAC but I am not sure if anyone looked at them.

aurator- ended up cashing out my (limited position) in RRPIX today also, for pretty much the same reasons...

"Visit for the Beef, stay for the angioplasty."- that sounds a lot like the Tenet slogan at Redding Medical Center in the 90's- "Visit the ER, stay for the angiogram and quadruple bypass..."

BTW Kaimu and others. I have a close relative who is a material engineer specializing in high-temperature corrosion resistant alloys. If you have any question on application spectrum of specific metals I can perhaps get a qualified answer from my relative.

N225 within 2% of the january 22 low...

craig- it's starting to look more like a buying opportunity either way->if it gaps down, it's a buy...if it gaps up, it's a buy...

kaimu
Thanks

Kaimu: ECU.TO Happy to hear that as I bought some yesterday, but the US ver. ECUFX.

However PAAS had a rough day, and I was boggled at Wal Mart with "PAAS" brand Easter stuff. Trying to buy groceries and I'm looking at PAAS easter egg dye! hehe

Previous post stated, Silver is consumed in commercial processes. I suggest readers buy Dave Morgan's book: "The Skinny on Silver Investing." Everything from dishwasher/washer anti-bacteria, to RFID antennas, to CD-R coatings, to underwear you can get shot thru and the silver stops wound infections. Mirrors, pre-plate deposits, anti-algae in liquid PC cooling loops, microwave waveguides, and as an antidote for short positions. Undervalued on a gold/silver ratio basis.

http://tinyurl.com/2d9hlp

Bill

Having been reading you now for 6 months and Sinclair for equal ammt. I find both of you have great insight and although very different styles much in agreement, EXCEPT for your projection of gold dropping into the low 800s. Sinclair maintains 961 as a new support lvl and gold has been obiding pretty well. That was the reason I posted last week to repeat your gold forecast. I have been vacillating between holding firm long and sitting out for a better entry point. Regards.

aurator, 2nd -
What is your opinion on trading leap puts on TLT vs ZB/ZB options vs RRPIX (regular tax account) ?

2nd ave: Appreciate the feedback. Great group here!!!

Now I'm {really} out for the night.

'Twill be a fun Friday as I expect a major sell off. (Been wrong before). ;)

Buy some Rhodium as soon as we figure out how.

Before some Fast Money guy figures it out who can't even pronounce "Bucyrus". Najarian recomended on several occasions, and his depth of research never crossed the way to pronounce the name of the company!!! THAT's thorough research! Maybe 'cuz I grew up in OH we never has a problem with "Bucyrus". Take the tie off... it's obviously strangulating you. Wrap it on Dylan's Red Bull to keep it cold. hehe

o_r- not really much into options for the simple reason the volume (ie, liquidity) isn't there, and the premiums tend to be high...add the fact that the vast majority of options expire worthless, and (if they were available) i'd prefer selling puts against a long position in RRPIX-

Occam's: Please clarify "ZB/ZB options" for me.
I will render the simplest answer once I understand the question.

I didn't see anyone discuss this today
"Bond insurer CIFG loses top rating from Moody's"
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3ck4e2

re Jim Sinclair blog -
I've mentioned this before but was criticized by many Caraistas here :). I'll try it one more time in even more polite terms. I highly respect and regularly read JS blog among others. But there is a big difference between BC blog and JS blog in respect to conflict of interests. JS owns a PM mining company and that somewhat skews his opinion IMHO. That does not take away his credit of being a smart guy and being right on gold price trends so far. However BC blog is much more PM neutral and I appreciate that. If someone like Rob McEwen (whom I respect a lot based on BC comments here) would publish a blog on gold prices I'd read it with the same great interest but also same precautions as JS blog - these guys are committed to gold mining and that may (or may not) skew their opinion on gold prices.

Aurator-
ZB is the ticker for futures on 30yr treasuries, ZB options are the options on ZB futures.

o_c- LOL takes guts to dis the Cara perspective among Caraistas...seriously, i think BC himself would admit to not being infallible and open to changing his outlook as events unfold, but everyone has an opinion....in the end a good track record is what earns your interest..

Need to buy a subscription to stockcharts.com or similar.

All I can say is I expect 30Y bond yields to fall until the carnage is over, and that could be into May.

I'm not a futures guy (yet). I give what I can that might be helpful. Somehow I find options intuitive, at least for now.

2ndAve,

Really want to express my thanks for the heads up on yesterday's GLD/GDX short squeeze and for this evening's insight of the possible implementation of shorting bonds (via RRPIX) in the near term....Due to work requirements don't have consistent access to market actions during the day so no changes re GLD/GDX positions..I have in all likleyhood been ignorantly riding the SKF/QID/FXP rail since late December, and fortuitously (foolishly!!) failed to get off at a prudent exit up to this point... Consequently I have been more disciplined with watching XLF within the last few weeks..today's heads up will serve for continued daily discipline....I'm definitively an intermediate to longer term duration type of investor so don't have the knowledge or skills for the market short term nuances or gyrations (though my lurking in community has been very beneficial)...Thus I am really very appreciative of your heads up on the "TOG", and I'm not too proud to humbly seek your continued opinion, steering or guidance on the "TOG"...Again to reiterate.. many thanks!!

G52

Last: Bernake clearly now a target. He was set up from the beginning by Greenspan's failed policy. Somebody had to be the "fall guy".

Not sure anyone could survive what he has been dealt.

He's royally screwed, as there is no option that will work. I feel for him, but he was stupid enough to accept the appointment. Shoulda told Bush, you are goin' down in flames no matter what you do. Wanted the prestigue. Got it now.

I wouldn't want to be known as a cluless bumbling idiot as BB will be known; by other than my best friends, who knew that already.

Lott'a educational horsepower and Ivy League capital up in smoke, as it should be.

These Ivy League types are not educated, but brainwashed.

The scheme to keep the kids of the powerful in power is failing. They are too clueless to even save their own arses, which brings me great delight.

ALOHA !!

Aurator ... its not Ivy League schools that are the problem it is "statist" schools. Add in the Pravda media component and even Ivy Leaguers wouldn't know which end is up! We're dumbed down in areas of education where the elite want us dumbed down in. The average American can't even spell economics much less figure it out. Whose version of economics and monetary policy do you believe? Well which one were you taught? What are my choices? Is Mises one?

I mean lets just take basics ... I went through some three years of California high school without even being taught how to balance a check book or apply for a job! I not once was exposed to the stock market or commodities in high school. Whats a 401k? Social Security ... whats that? IRS who?

I don't know but I hope it has improved on the basics at least but I doubt anyone in public schools is taught to think outside the monetary box! Are there field trips to the US Federal Reserve building in NYC? Any field trips to the US gold reserves? The last time I saw inside of Ft. Knox was watching the Goldfinger James Bond 007 movie! What was that 1964?

Why is it these Ivy League schools spit out Bernankies and not Pauls? As far as Greenspan goes ... hes just an out and out traitor and sellout!

Aurator

Stockcharts has a pretty good free site, start with that and see if you like it. I've been with them since the beginning back in 2000 and have been very happy. I think its good value for what they provide.

Basic for $95 US per year, Extra $190 or Real time $310. However RT is not streaming charts although you can set it to refresh every 15 seconds or so. Also standard annual fee gives you 13 months, but look in the fall they always have a special for 14 months.

I have the extra which is everything except the RT, charts are great and I like the custom scanning engine. Only thing I don't like is they back adjust their data for dividends.

occam_razor,
It seems obvious to me that a gold mine owner/promoter would have a vested interest in a positive outlook for the price of gold.

2nd: Let's see what the employment turns out like.
If so-so to good(?) Hulbert's short term may be right...If not, here is CT's Feb 9 Daily when we broke 12800.

"All 5 indexes below confirm that we are in a bear market. What is still unclear is whether this will be mild or severe."

"Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow respected resistance at 12800 (the former primary support level) and is now headed for a test of support at 12000. Breakout below this level would offer a medium-term target of 11200 to 10700 (the June 2006 low): 12000-(12800-12000) = 11200."

That magic 12000 looks to be key....round numbers.

ST rumors and BS/manipulation is always possible.

Quasi: Thanks... Have several subscriptions and am sorting.

If I had to to give them all up but for one...
I would keep McHugh:

http://tinyurl.com/3a24rs

IF there was ever a time in our generation where a 30 day free subscription could change your life... That moment is now and that publication is this!!!

Believe me I've been serious for the last 5 years. Try or cry; buy or cry. You will laugh at the reasons and be amazed by the results. Fib time series works...

How did I know the VIX would explode?
How do I know it will continue to explode?

When I buy/sell is my own intuition. When I buy/sell with McHugh in my back pocket, I sleep soundly.

That's all I have for now. Making in a month what my profession pays in a year.

Aurator

kaimu,

I had to take one semester of economics to graduate from CA high school. Can't remember what I was taught in there, but I can tell you basic financial literacy was not taught. Forget about the stock market or investing. Fundamental analysis? Technical analysis? Mises? Not gonna learn that in school, gonna have to learn it in the streets.

Steven Colbert is hilarious....

He was mentioning Hillary "Rodham" Clinton...to Jon Stewart over and over, emphasizing "Rodham".

Jon asks why he is emphasizing Rodham and he says, Jon, don't you find it suspicious that it rhymes with "Saddam"? She must be hiding that she is a Muslim.....

Aurator -

Thank you for your time and effort in each and every one of your postings. I've learned a little on each one of them and wanted to acknowledge you for that...