Aussieontop:

http://www.allthingsarctic.com/default.aspx

I believe Coast Mountain Sports has the goods.

Good Morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

WHR downgraded to Underweight @ JP Morgan

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

excavatorsb,

Thanks for your note, even if it was all in caps, which is considered rude in this part of the world.

Photogray gave you good advice. I check korvus's RSI site every day, looking for bargains.

Good luck to you.

Regards

BullHunter: Congrats on your results!!.. and much thanks for updating analyst upgrade on cara 100.

Any idea what the fasicnation with trading SNDK is on this site? Much better tech companies among CARA 100 - and better looking charts....something I am overlooking?

ADP reports shows employment situation worsening:

http://tinyurl.com/yrnntg

FWIW, the MarketWatch story notes decreasing confidence in the ADP numbers. I rather doubt that skepticism.

I'm curious to hear other folks' opinions on when it is a good time to go long RRPIX and RUJUX. Do you think RSIs are a good indicator for entry/exit with funds like these?

EEMTRADER,

Thanks.

I haven't delved into SNDK as of yet, preferring to deal in small cap techs and pharmas, but I'd bet that 2nd could explain anything you'd care to know about it (when he's done eating his free lunch :^)).

Regards

Allen : Look at the yield of the 30 year on your charts..for guide using RSI.., might want to bone up on what RSI really measures too..so you can relate to it more than just overbought /oversold..

Profunds also have 2X long or short goldminers...might get more alpha/beta out of the gold miners funds than the yields..when the time comes.

You might want to read Bill's comments about the miners escalating costs..from two days ago.

Bond timing from go34: On overbought condition on uptrend break, OR perhaps three stages: Overbought, RSI cross, trendline break.

RSI is a overbought/oversold indicator.

ET, yes that SNDK chart is scary. And it has even broken through support on the monthly chart. So there is nothing to like here. I think the interest is due to the fact that the RSI's are in Bill's accumulation zone.

I also think there are better opportunities elsewhere, but if I were to trade this I'd wait for the daily to find a bottom. And I'd use very tight stops even then.

As an aside, it's kinda funny that futures are up given that lousy ADP report.

BH/EEMt- no free lunch->someone's paying, right? ;) the (passing) fascination with SNDK lies in its recent volatility, and the fact that BG seems to like the company...that's it...speaking of BG->good instinct for market direction..

craig- your positions are looking much better this morning..

Number2son: Like that monniker much better..:)

RE:SNDK..thank you for your response. I wlaways like toquestion what I think is true but just aint so that may leave money on the table...so many stocks so little time !!

wait till 7:00AM for ISM and also..pay attention to this chart, if you dont already... news thats 'less bad than feared is good news' in this market, for now anyway.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/Data.html

Damn, you west coasters have to get up early... I don't think I'd be able to hack it out there.

Craig, EEMTRADER, thanks for the advice. I've been keeping a daily hand drawn chart of RRIPX and RYJUX RSIs just to try to drill it into my head...

Re the 2x leveraged gold miner ETFs, having experienced the volitility of the miners, this would be a pretty exciting ride. I'll start watching them. (BTW, thank you Bill for bring NOT.V to my attention; I just experienced the pleasure of its UPWARD volitility!).

gold having a nice spike this morning,
anyone else notice how Kitco.com has been overloaded the past few weeks in the morning,
their servers cant handle all the new gold bugs!!

test post.

2nd: A little luck never hurts...

Seamus: Keeping an eye on MON. Low of 107 + yesterday, I've had a 90's GTC order for a while.

Was shorted yesterday (Doug Kass) so I suspect this little pop may be short covering/squeeze.
No real indication from here (other than general direction of commodities) but I will wait for confirmation.

ISM #'s could move markets one way or the other.

Fatty, the early bird catches the worm. ;)

ET, thanks for the reminder re the weakening McClellan oscillator and the potential impact of the ISM release today.

I'm not seeing much to trade here. PCX came up on my screens as a possible short. But I don't like the premiums on the options. So it's a day of watching and waiting for me, most likely.

GFI - Today's range on JSE (South Africa) exchange, approx. after currency translation: 14.48-15.11 USD.

Some good picks from me for March
http://wallastoninvestments.com/steel-transports-gold-stocks-what-looks-good-in-march

craig/geck- LDK-> taking this one in for a landing...flat trade..

Fatty: 4:30 - 5:00 AM everyday. Just received my green coffee order last night....30lbs/$170.

Hi,

Re PoG: so here we are back on track again.

As you see, there was no reason to sell.

Expect more and more volatility as 1.000 is conquered.

Enjoy.

Cheers!

I have to Thank You Maromatics!

We trade as a team.

:-)

back into QID/DUG/SMN...

McHugh believes DOW wave 3 of iii down has started. Today's bounce is {ii} counter trend rally for a day or two. On the reversal and break of 12K, the bottom falls out.

NASDAQ in wave 5 down with similar {ii} bounce.

big move in tlt & $tyx

I feel like selling my losers (longs) into strength today. Does that make sense given the general market tone?

denny- i would sell any longs into strength...

on CNBC I keep hearing ads for an entertainment show called "American Greed" as though it is somehow unusual and different, and something from another place and time, as though current behavior was clean and polite. LOL...

I want to watch that show(American Greed) tonight with Bernard Ebbers on it.

2nd_ave:

Are you still hanging on to those SNDKs? I had 100 shares put to me in Feb at 27.5 (but I also pocketed the premium so actual buyin was 26.25). I'm wondering whether I want to hang on to this sucker (even though it's a tiny position) for the 1-2 year time frame and just forget about it, or with it's terrible chart patterns if it's worthwhile to dump and repurchase when s**t hits the fan!

maromatics- gotta hand it to you, man...you showed no hesitation buying into yesterday's gold sell-off...nice call...

Thanks 2nd. Out for an 8% lesson. Leaves only pm shares to hold.

Gold - (repeat)

Daily RSI (7, 14, 21) all over 70. In the past, we have mostly seen a subsequent decline greater than yesterdays OR a high level of consolidation bringing the price oscillators lower.

Gold trades around the round numbers very well. $1000 is significantly high and round.

I simply don't think that gold purchases in the $980 - $1000 range has a high probability of being successful without incurring some pain first.

If gold blows through $1000, I would be worried about some underlying fundamental reason driving the price higher without a fight. Possible bank failure, derivative issue, etc. I think these issues are probable, but the a "crisis" wouldn't be good for many people out of the gold trade and the timing is unknown.

A simple way to add to gold holdings would be to plan purchases around the round numbers, say 1% or so above every $50 increment on the way down. IMO, the better way is to wait for the price oscillators to be oversold, (not all the way oversold, but not at these high levels), and buy when the downtrend line is broken to the upside signifying an end to near term selling. Those levels would be launching pads in the short term or long term.

Throughout this gold bull market, we have seen new highs being reported by financial networks, sucking in buyers at the wrong time, only to have them puke their shares at lower prices. Those are the times to fleece the sheeple. I think a $1000 gold headline would be in bold print.

No one knows what the future brings, but there is no time like the present to put a plan in place that is based on sound tactical decisions. I look at fundamentals first for strategic decision making and then act tactically only after a full technical analysis is done. Think strategically, act tactically.

Most trading mistakes are made by trading against the trend.

Patience is a virtue.

2nd_Ave

Re your advice to Denny to sell longs into strength today: is your advice affected if one's longs yield dividends?

All: I'm not nearly as savvy as most of you here and most surely welcome your opinions. Thanks.

Add: long gold and various gold shares.

Bloomberg is stoking the fires of another bogus rally, claiming the ISM numbers indicate economy is not headed for recession.

Nonsense.

Indeed, number2son

There seems to be a plethora of bad economic numbers today that are either being ignored or spun in a positive light.

These liars/crooks never cease to amaze me.

Regards

Number2son: :) That McO chart wa just showing oversold conditions..where er..prices rise out of...todays breadth numers right now > 1000 advancing...is positive..and if that AMBAC announcement comes out today..

careful with cognitive dissonance...mental bias is more dangerous than position sizing...one cannot change the other....

Just a humble and dumb viewpoint...

2nd,

Thanks. it is great to hear that from someone I respect.

Go34,

True.

Cheers!

I remember the day that Bill came out and said that long term traders would probably do well selling $70 puts on HBC (that's a bullish trade, btw). That was a great call:

- sell puts below the current price to bring in premium and set a "stink bid" where you would like to own the stock long term if it is "putted" to you at $70. The premium brought in lowers your cost basis.

- He was bearish on the market intermediate term at the time, but saw the capitulation bar on the S&P as being a high probability low, setting up a bear market rally - which has happened.

- If you simply bought HBC outright, you would have eventually been stopped out below the low, only to find yourself whipsawed the next day (02/11 and 02/12) having to buy higher. Selling puts would have been a much easier trade.

I posted this before, but if this is a lesson worth reviewing.

Hi,

Gold: big time short squeeze going on.

Good morning all;

Anyone spying FXP at this level?
I'm a charting newbie; one must view the FXI chart to play FXP. FXP downtrend on a six month chart pressed against the upper limit at around 151 ish. Right now looking attractive?

EEMtrader, still digesting your details from a previous post in January! Thanks again...

Stu

Walmart fans,
YTD sales for 2008 up almost 5% from last year so far at the store I work at. Also, Sunday and Tuesday store looked empty with barely any customers when I did some shopping. There is your Walmart update. Thanks!!!

Greg McCoach on BNN now taking calls on small cap mining stocks.

Reading here...wrapping my monkey mind around your words to apply to my portfolio....deciding on a course of action.
Those are my challenges here. I hear sell into strength. Of my pm's, NOT.V has highest RSI,MACD and STO.
BUT I DON'T WANT TO SELL! Yes it Is my emotion making decisions. So I grab another justification....Bill says wait for RSI(7) to turn down. But I can also take SOME profit. That allows me to look at the 1-minute chart and select a good time to sell some. That is a manageable task.
And then each other in the green, then what the heck to those in the red also.
And then I refresh the cara site for any heads up before pocketing a nice little profit before actually going to "work"...That is proof of concept.
There are many here who may wince at the level of my ineptiude (sp?) and are welcome to help me refine this blunt knife I yield.
A gracious comment from earlier.....
We trade as a team.
Also proof of concept.
Thanks to Bill and all who slog and blog thru snow and typekey
The sun is now shining thru the fog here in the beautiful north Puget Sound
Good hunting...great trading
Gray

Financials giving it up....SKF flickering green.

Kp84/Stu: Must have been a bad post .was it incoherent? :)

RE:...I would not buy FXP at these levels...time to buy it was last week...wait till FXI gets to an overbought condition..in your time frame that you hold

You might want to use a trend indicator to 'point' you in the direction of the trend..then pull the trigger at Overbought levels, AFTER the market confirms a reversal.

You gonna have to resolve in your mind whether at this stage of your learning curve, you will rather settle for % profit per trade, or % of winning trades and the risk you assume. That determines whether you wait for the market or lead the market.:)

Those that bought FXP last week made a mint...go look over the last 20 days of FXI..good start to learning how to trade FXI, look at 3, 10, 30 min and daily and weekly and one minute charts. Look where prices get rejected in either direction, look where volume diminishes during the day.

Look at the 1 minute charts at market open and close...

Then derive your own strategy...having said that...never listen to someone you hardly know...:) Good luck.

Anyone watching AMSWA, the little software company with a 4% yield.

It's been pasted due an earnings/charges burp.

Watching for a possible entry point.

Actually, more like a 6% yield at this price.

norton- sorry for the late response (day job)- wouldn't matter to me whether dividends are involved...how much solace would you get from dividends if/when the DJIA/NASD are sitting at 10/2...

fazeli- sold all of my technology early into last night's close...

if you want yield and still believe in newspapers look at GHS at 28%

LONG LIVE GS !!

JRPauley,

How does GHS maintain a dividend with negative earnings?

ambac news pending ..

Bill
Curious how do you feel about our illustrious Bank of Montreal, RSI is under 30 on all M_W_D

It did it again. My profits in SDS quickly turned to losses with whatever happened at 12:02. The RTT news gadget hasn't said anything. Even that is several minutes late. Delayed news is of no help. Where do the traders who are getting real time news getting it? This is frustrating.

Oh Boy !

We have a chance to buy into AMBAC!

Selling everything to raise capital.

Not!

:^)

Hopefully this Ambac news will spark a rally that will be a gift to those wanting to get short. I was hesitant to add shorts until this news came out.

What happens if the reaction is to sell the news?

CDS on GS, LEH, BSC have apparently been skyrocketing the last few days. These companies are fighting for their lives. Chinese are disappointed with their investment in Bear. I don't know who will step up to the plate for the capital that these firms need.

30 yr bond at 4.59 up from 4.50 yest

the shorting long-bond trade is working nicely since Monday

Dave

I think I finally understand the CNBC business model. They spin things so incredibly that the audience (like me) is fixated with disbelief and can't change the dial. I'm waiting for Rod Sterling to appear any minute.

EEM

Jeez, I should proofread. That was a disjointed post; I'll stop posting after working night shifts in the future.

I've not traded FXI/FXP nor will I until I'm comfortable identifying the trend reversals(and properly 'speaking the language' of TA!).

My query is this:
Is the six month chart of FXI relevant? i.e.
I see a down trend by:
connecting Oct 31 high to the lower high of Feb 27;
connecting Nov 12 low to a lower low of Jan 22.

Am I on the right track?

Thanks for your replies.

Stu

stu..respond to you after market close...making $$$ now...not friends..lol:)

Flying a little blind with an initial order on GIX (GXEXF) . . have a partial fill so far.

FWIW, reference recent posts on RRPIX. No transaction fee, no redemption fee or holding requirement thru Schwab. $2500 minimum, IRA minimum $1000.

Have to run out for awhile . . will return for close.

This Ambac story has been pumped to high heaven by CNBC. Hoow many times can you regurgitate the same lack of news? That garbage with Gasparino talking about his news reports from inside sources is not journalism. The puppeteers at HBB should just create a marionette show and give Gasparino a vacation.

"Flying a little blind" --- don't have the usual real time quotes.

Looks like 1000 gold may be today, but expecting some fight on this one.

2nd,

Bullseye! Thanks. This business is as much about learning how to THINK about trading as it is about learning how to trade. Yes?

And no apology necessary... my day job is part of my motivation to do a better job of trading.

Re: ETFs

Exchange traded funds holding precious metals in storage would have sold some of their inventory hoping to get a good price at the open of the April contract, but they are now buying in at prices they sold at. Only ETFs hold silver, so the violent move in silver was probably out of inventory.

I can't see the bullion banks dumping counterfeit leases in gold & silver to fix prices here.

Indeed, BillySundance,

I'm sure that HB&B is already working on a new story as cover to programmed buying, since they can't use AMBAC anymore.

I can't stop throwing up.

Regards

Hi,

Yep, 1.000 is now only a matter of time.

The real technical number is 1024, perhaps 1050.

The air here is rarified, and volatility is very much expected.

Short term traders will sell around 1024.

Investors will not care to bother and will keep their long positions o their way to 1.650.

Cheers!

Bull Hunter -

Use the manipulation to your advantage. It is a gift. Sell resistance and cover on support. Rinse, repeat. This is how the prop desks are making their money now. Sell the market down to last-ditch support and then fly a bull story, kick in the buy programs, and fleece greedy shorts, then sell in to the pump.

moab,

What are the best or your favorite vehicles to accomplish this?

Thanks.

Regards

maro - $1650 = inflation adjusted high?

That's where I got my statement a while back about gold eventually doubling from that old price.

Stu: Ok market is frozen here with pending news.

YEs 6 months downtrend..ALSO look at the last two months..

look at it with a 60 minute chart..you might see a TRADING RANGE or range bound trading between 136 -155 price zones.

Now set your alerts for break out or breakdown of the range, in between...trade in the direction that the market is leading

..at price extremes ..see if price reverses..

Try tracking CHL for practice...little less volatile as much % return as FXI

I hope you chose this stock, and whatever holding period that is comfortable for your based on your risk tolerance, not because you hear that the Hong Kong market is in a bubble..dont listen to the news...watch the charts...

Traders love their capital..whatever news..dug up from the internet is already too late..no matter how appealing and logical it sounds.

Follow the capitalists, not the journalists.

NOT.v abv 7

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1204651474.php

I maintain a core of large junior miners with cash flow.

Around that I am trading ultrashorts like EEV, QID, SKF, SDS. I scale into these as they approach support levels - trendlines or moving averages. Then at S&P support levels, like 1310 I watch for a reversal. When it occurs I sell the ultrashorts and actually short them. I shorted QID yesterday as I thought there was good resistance at 55 on the chart and that there might be a rotation back to Tech. Big Beta was strong yesterday. For some reason it is weak today.

I will start looking for shorts at 1350 and 1370 if the buying is not broadbased.

1310 will not hold forever. Earnings season is approaching and momentum is fading. The daily S&P chart had a bearish MACD crossover.

Thanks, moab !

Regards

Bush now giving McCain his endorsement. McCain to take shower after ceremony concludes.

One other thing I have noticed with these reversal off of support - there seems to be a small 3 to 5 point S&P breach to get the bears salivating and the bulls despondent. Then they take the market up. I saw this at 1402, 1270, 1310.

As Bill said, Nasdaq 10 (and bug beta like BIDU, GOOG, AAPL) seem to point the market direction. They were pretty strong yesterday before the reversal.

lol, number2son,

I was thinking that after receiving Bush's endorsement, tomorrow, McCain will accept endorsements from Charlie Manson and Satan. :^)

Regards

"Ambac to stop guaranteeing CDOs, mortgage-backed securities" - marketwatch.com

Does this mean new ones or existing ones?

Oh! All clear! AMBAC says it can operate with AA rating, pretty cool huh? Who needs to trifle with that silly AAA rating.

Maybe we should call Geico....

How many shares of AMBAC's public offering are you buying, Craig? :^)

EEM

Market's unfrozen now!

thanks for the advice.

Stu

Fannie Mae is getting pounded -7% on heavy volume. Perhaps because it is under January lows.

Rumor is that the cap was raised on loans that FNM could buy so that it could use that excuse to raise money because they are out of capital.

Stu: Not advice..just one way to look at the markets...different timeframes will generate its own trending/or trading range.

Then adjust accordingly the indicators or the way you view the markets...just dont mix the two approaches ( a trading appraoch in a trending market )...its expensive..:)

Read up on the ADX indicator..that helps..a little slow but helps..

geezer52- GDX/GLD...if your only reason for taking positions last week was an (early) entry into TOG, might consider selling both into today's short squeeze...

You guys are gonna love this one!

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0555961420080305

online- you're right...i was wondering about those window banners/billboards...

...inside joke...

actively managed ETFs

http://tinyurl.com/2ym5px

GFI - Does 15.12, 15.12, 15.10 count as an intraday triple top?

jk484,

The link you posted is too long.

Please make use of tinyurl.com in the future.

craig- going with your last livermore quote->when you're right, sit tight...and right now, the short side is right...

make that "looks" right...

link:

sorry, copied & pasted

noticed after the fact

2nd: Would JL take 3% to 3.98% in a day with this tape?

I would/did....:>)

RE: Gasparino. Last week, he was the rally-maker. Today, he was the rally-killer. If you look at a DJIND chart, you can see the market was really taking off, just as the news broke about ABK. And when did it tank? The moment after the first CNBC "report" went over the news wire. At least, that's the way it looks on my screen. Probably has more to do with ABK, itself, but when you compare the timing vs. the volume and price move, you can see how much power to move the market Gasparino has.

Since the HUI cleared 500 I stopped and took a look and saw that it's up about 10% since mid-Feb. Nice to be an adherent of real money and actually have it work that way. For now, anyway.

The BDI is back up over 8000 after falling to 5500 6 weeks ago and dry shippers Diane and Drys were up over 6% today. Some of that is undoubtly short covering because there's a large short on drys. I like to trade them because they move because they can move 4-5 dollars a day.

INTC: 2nd...aren't you glad you're out of NAND manufacturers?

craig- yes...congrats on your gold trade...

re: Mining Juniors

Note that my posting about "What Sprott Bought" was a short list of precious metal explorers that were topped up or large chunks of the float were purchased last February.

Sprott Asset Management only bought a small handful of gold miners, a couple of silver miners, and one copper/coal play.

The rest of the speculators in junior mining shares were buying headlong into base metals. Note that there is a strong contrast to where Sprott considers putting their money compared to where other investment houses are considering putting their cash.

There is a difference between gold and base metals, and clearly differentiating between the two will be very important going forward.

One day I'm the bug, the next the windshield...

In this tape I have as much control as the bug...
I just try to miss the glass and maybe catch a ride.

watermelon: Thank you for the heads up on BDI . Its nice to see old friends like DSX and DRYS do well ...again...:) and make a new one. :)

STU/KP84:

I just re read your post as I am playing back tmy trades today.yes your trend line is spot on..pay attention to the 20 period simple move ave above it..still a nice $3 away..which means given the stock volatility..up and down..probably at least twice that in actual distance..

Pick your entries and exits...in either direction. Should be interesting to see what happens if it gets to the 153 level..lots of 'stuff' above it as resistance.

Panic in European bond markets: http://tinyurl.com/2y6tsl

http://tinyurl.com/38zot5

TMA may go bankrupt. Down big AH's.

I wondered if reviewing a list of miners who were NOT in attendance at PDAC might be interesting?
One that comes to mind is QTA who recently listed on Amex ( QMM ... I think). Anyone have any thoughts on this one?

Re: Crossover In the Silver/Gold ratio:

An advance in Silver against Gold could indicate new speculative bets being laid down in the precious metals sector. As of today, we are confirmed in our crossover event:

Stockcharts.com(requires subscription)

http://tinyurl.com/yrfzga

Also, Warts & Features Chart

Stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/26xn3l

nb: You can compare any junior precious metal share against these charts if you have a subscription to Stockcharts.com

30 year bond price gapped down, looking to start its grind downwards.

when the 50 MA starts to turn down i suspect a rush to the exists before the death cross below the 200 MA.

a rate cut this month could be the last straw in this move.

telenetworxx -

Hahahaha - the analyst says there is a one in four chance the company will go bankrupt. So what does he/she do? Downgrade from buy to hold! Unbelievable.

uh-oh->Thornburg (TMA) misses margin call, falls 40% after hours...Ambac down 4% after-hours...

Moab: Hold is SELL in analyst speak. By the time they issue an 'analyst sell'..its borderline bankruptcy...like Enron.

EEMTRADER - "Hold is SELL in analyst speak. By the time they issue an 'analyst sell'..its borderline bankruptcy...like Enron."

A friend of mine, who was an analyst for JPM at the time, said as much. She added that by the time of the call, it's still often too late for even the retail investor that understands it.

gdiman: SI..only strong buy on day one its announced is worth it..maybe...everything else is too late and too hyped...

Charts and scanners are better..

I once had an analyst explain to me a'generic' DCF valuation model, ( they dont reveal proprietary models) of how they figure valuation.....after 2 hours he looked at me and said..yes there is guesswork involved...and said it with the most solemn face and a twinkle in his eye

The analyst still had a buy rating on it! I am aware that this is the way they work but it still amazes me that anyone puts their trust in these analysts when their calls are so patently ridiculous.

Moab..agree .totally..the only reports I read are the sector and industry reports..that still jives and works for me...the individual company ones are kinda boiler plate..I can write those.

neither bad news nor analysts are 'fast' enough for buy/sell decisions-

plenty of bad news in the headlines...but hey, they say the market discounts bad news months months ahead...so was it all priced in 3 months ago?...if it continues to drop, then it'll be telling us the headlines get much worse this summer...

analysts' ratings are (still) based on DCF valuation models? almost every number they use is a 'guess,' from (estimates) of the interest rate(s) used to discount each year's (estimated) cash flow, to (estimates) of earnings growth [in turn based on (estimates) of revenue, expenses, tax rates, etc], to estimates of consumer behavior...it goes on...

...perhaps sentiment indicators work as well as they do simply b/c human nature is far more predictable than analysts' assumptions...

Apparently Cramer just told viewers of his show that cash is trash and to buy gold, oil, agriculture, utilities and high-yielding stocks. Sounds to me like an interim top is coming soon.

Cramer is really a pro at telling people to buy at the top.

any bets on friday's employment report? anecdotally, when i drive into SF (very early) on Mondays, see fewer cabs lined up outside the South of Market bars, fewer streetwalkers east of Van Ness, and a little less traffic driving home on 101 or 280...

"only strong buy on day one its announced is worth it..maybe...everything else is too late and too hyped."

Reminds me long-standing joke about analyst-speak:

ABCD defended - wait, stop dumping it, we haven't sold our shares yet

ABCD Buy - OK, we accumulated enough, help us to move this thing a bit

ABCD Strong Buy - Someone buy it from ua, we have too much to just start hitting the bids without driving it into the ground

ABCD Strong Buy REITERATED - Pretty please, someone, anyone, take it off our hands!

etc. :)

I've been considering going ahead and taking some positions to short the long bond. I was looking at RYJUX. That sucker has a 4.97% expense ratio. Are there any alternatives to it that don't have such bloated ER?

zenob- i only see a 1.36% expense ratio for RUJUX (and 1.46% for RRPIX)...someone mentioned last month that some funds include the dividends paid out to bond-holders in the expense ratio...when shorting the long bond, you're responsible for paying out dividends each month to the holders of those bonds...so Rydex is probably simply being upfront about that...

that was meant to be 'RYJUX,' of course...

"MSM" questioning the employment stats. (via The NY Times)

"Consider this: the average unemployment rate in this decade, just above 5 percent, has been lower than in any decade since the 1960s. Yet the percentage of prime-age men (those 25 to 54 years old) who are not working has been higher than in any decade since World War II. In January, almost 13 percent of prime-age men did not hold a job, up from 11 percent in 1998, 11 percent in 1988, 9 percent in 1978 and just 6 percent in 1968."

http://tinyurl.com/3c6jrk

Here is one person's opinion that the government is going to confiscate the natural resource companies across North America:

The SPP Presents A Significant Risk For The Natural Resource Investor

Wednesday, 5. March 2008, 02:38:00

sovereignity, Security And Prosperity Agreements, Peak Wealth, Amero ...
I. Introduction
The Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America, the SPP, presents a clear and present danger for the precious metal, natural gas, energy, energy service, steel, potash, coal and oil sands investor; and thus especially for the Canadian investor at large, as well as for those invested in the junior mining stocks who have thrived on a rising Canadian dollar as well as a booming natural resource sector.

One should immediately disinvest from all natural resource stocks and ETFs.

II. The announcement of the SPP on March 23, 2005 made for a economic, political and investment sea change...

http://tiny.cc/SYrUQ

moab - Cramer has always been by contrarian indicator. You are right, his viewers routinely buy tops, and then get scared and sell easily. You can count on a 1-3 day pop and he's always late to the game.

He's done it to me (or for me) several times. Just a few months ago he started pushing Dianna Shipping while I was having a nice gentle ride up. I was in in the mid 20's and it was already mid-upper 30's when he (and his minions) stepped in. He sent it into the low 40's almost overnight and I that's when I stepped out.

I can't stand the guy myself, but he can make your holdings move. Based on what you're saying about what he told his viewers tonight, I'm just glad I've been long gold for quite a while now.

Might be time to let some go. Ah well.

well-written, easy to understand overview of the entitlement (ie, Social Security and Medicare) problem in the US:

http://tinyurl.com/yu92ev

excerpts:

"'The worst case scenario," Walker says, "is that we could suffer the same fate as Argentina." The Argentine government defaulted in 2002 after running up massive debts during the 90s. Foreign capital fled the country, the banking system collapsed, inflation hit 80%, and unemployment reached 25% as the economy sank into a depression.

Yet not only are politicians refusing to speak out against ballooning entitlements, they're making the problem worse.

In 2003, Republicans passed the Medicare drug benefit, which boosted US future obligations $8.4 trillion. For their part, Democratic candidates propose "universal" health care, which could increase our liabilities even more.

But perhaps the biggest obstacle to reform--and the reason politicians won't confront the issue--is the American people, who have grown "self-centered", feeling entitled to ever-increasing benefits, Walker argues."

-and a guess at where the solution lies:

"Hopefully, the foundation's first proposal will be to reduce promised benefits. The alternative, raising taxes, makes no sense with the economy headed for a protracted recession. New taxes to pay growing entitlement benefits will only exacerbate the economy's problems by discouraging job growth and investment."

do you think the boomers would be willing (to some extent) to give up Medicare and Social Security beneifts?

From an earlier link this jumped out at me from the UK Telegraph....

"The wild moves on the euro-zone bond markets came as gold plummeted by $29 an ounce to $957 on automatic stop losses and forced selling by funds."

Ok, I was wondering why there was a one day drop and spot gold is right back to 985 and change. My question is..if that was program selling, all funds would not have the same trigger price would they? If not, are there more triggers as we scale up in POG?

peace
Gray

Mr. Hunter and Photogray
Thank you for your responses and the invaluable information. I apologise for the caps, I am getting used to the protocall here and I had no idea it was rude nor did I mean to be yelling.
Photogray I will study this material you gave me.
Mr. Hunter I will check out the bargains daily at Korvus's RSI site. Thank you too Korvus.

Photogray
My grandparents lived on Orcas Isle in the San Juan Islands

Rebound expected to 12400 (0.5F) by EW charts. Maybe a couple more days, maybe not. I expect RRPIX to fall in the decline, so I may exit Thur.

The longs will first bail to bonds, after seeing Borg-like "futility at resistance".
The bond holders will finally realize "they been had" holding US Dollars for a losing return.
Dollar will go to sub-70 on the DXY. Can't to to Euros... no where to hide but Gold and Oil.

This will be a moon shot for commodities and will put Gold past 1300 then 1600. Soon, IMHO.
The longer Ben holds off the Bears, the hungrier they are going to be when they get loose.

Will the vultures start circling? Anyone considering dipping their toe on the impending takedown?.....

ZURICH (Reuters) - Shares in Swiss bank UBS AG (UBSN.VX) fell on Thursday on speculation it had sold a huge portfolio of risky mortgages at a deep discount and plans to announce a massive writedown in the first quarter.

FranSix
Re "What Sprott Bought" do you recall the day of the filing, I have been checking on sedar and have as yet have been unable to find.

ALOHA !!

2nd ... With regards to what Walker says about losing our benefits ... DUH-H!!! Nobody has ever witnessed what 77 million law-abiding and tax-paying US citizens will do when their entire generation have had the rug pulled out from under them. There will sit the EMPEROR, our US government, the two party aristocracy, in total frontal nudity for all to see. That will be one helluva ugly as hell sight!!! Exposed will be the elite lies of decades upon decades underpinned by power and greed with their number one tool from which all this has been spawned ... corrupt fiat currency. Mankind on a global scale has never seen anything as incidious and evil. In terms of shear size of fiat scale we are in uncharted historical waters!

Back in the 1940s my Father's generation had to confront a global evil of government's acting at their worst in more than one World War. In the 1960s and 1970s my generation had to take to the streets to put down our own government acting at its worst. I fear once again there will be a new generation backed by my generation again taking to the streets once more to put down our own government again. Only this time the civil disobedience will be even worse, because this time it will be multi-generational and affect those of all ages. Not just the ones of military draft age. If the US government wins this "civil war", which it will not, welcome to serfdom and if "We The People" are victorious then at the least times will be hard but then we will have removed the death grip of BIG GOVERNMENT from our lives.

See entitlements as pervasive as we have here in the USA could only have been accomplished by one way ... a fiat currency ... constantly expanding monetary supply feeds the entitlements while it reaches behind your back at the same time and picks your pockets clean of your accumulated wealth. Your home, your 401k, your daily bread ... Fiat is but just a "tool" but it is a tool that is willingly weilded by madmen we vote into power. Come Novemeber we will vote into power more madmen who weild fiat willingly, mostly because we allow them to for our own self-serving reasons.

Walker fails to point out that his comparison to Argentina is acurate only technically, but I believe the severity will be much worse for America because of how deep entitlements have seeped into our consciousness and the one fact that the US Dollar is a reserve currency and Argentina's was not. While Walker speaks only of entitlements regarding "social" benefits he totally glosses over the entitlements the government hands out to US corporations which effects millions more Americans who are not retiring. You have to call entitlements what they really are. Entitlements is just another word for "welfare". When you expect someone or some entity to take care of you from "cradle-to-grave that's "welfare" ... period! The first words out of most people's mouths upon hearing that will be, "NO ... I worked hard all my life and paid for my Medicare and Social Security so that is not welfare!" That's a person with blinders taught by statists ... Yes, of course you worked hard all your life having all those deductions taken from your paychecks, but you made the mistake of relying on a large centralized government to manage your "wealth" in a responsible manner. You made the mistake of believing that some big entity other than you knows more about how to take care of your needs than you do. You made the mistake of abdicating responsibility of your life in exchange for a false guarantee that in your heart you knew was not right! Not only did you make the mistake of "relying" on that BIG GOVERNMENT but you sealed your fate by voting them into power year after year even when you knew in your bones it was the wrong thing to do. The warning bell was ringing way before Mr. Walker for those who wanted to hear it. Furthermore, most of us had jobs either directly secured or indirectly secured to the US government, the State or county and city contracts or the US government itself. Where did you think that money was coming from? The US government produces no wealth whatsoever, instead it is a union of taxpayers. All the US government ever does is re-distribute the wealth of the masses to the few in a most inefficient and corrupt manner. Walker is correct to say that we have wrought this financial monster onto ourselves. It is the product of BIG GOVERNMENT ... USSR style. We voted with our apathy and complacency so welcome to the USSA!

ALOHA !!

In another development related to PDAC I received an e-mail today from a friend who compiled notes from the Jim Sinlair Q&A Session at the "tent"! Did any Caraistas go to that tent session? It is quite lengthy so I will not post it here and there is no "link"(you cannot link a private e-mail), but it is very informative and it tells more of what Jim Sinclair thinks about "off topic" usual POG/US Dollar and PM share stuff. Jim Sinclair did not post any of it on his site either.

He does talk about impending "civil disobedience" and food shortages and food costs. His view is that any civil disobedience will be attempted to be put down immediately by the US government. Since I was not there I am not sure what his definition of "civil disobedience" was. Is it rioting or in his mind is peaceful protesting "civil disobedience"? I guess in the end Jim Sinclair's definition is not important as the answer to that question will be what the current administration says it is.

I was confused by his answer to the question about food being more valuable than gold. He said "gold will always buy food" period! If you have gold you will eat! I am of the belief it is more tied to "supply of food" ... There was plenty of gold on the Titanic but not enough lifeboats. It was a topic he did not want to spend too much time on since he considered them not related to PDAC topics.

There are two components to food in my mind. There is "cost" and "supply". In some countries as I type this there are riots in the streets because the cost of food is too expensive. They are not rioting because of supply yet. I can't see any way around getting off the "grid" as much as you can. This would apply to all basic needs not just food, but fuel(electricity, gas)and water as well. Escalating prices of these commodities eat into your accumulated wealth. Every time you get an elctric bill from PG&E or ConEd you go into debt. If you use your accumulated gold or stock portfolio to pay those costs then you will lose your wealth to debt attrition. Never mind what will happen to your mortgage payment. Do your best to get into solar, wind and gardening ...

It was interesting to hear a gold/economy expert talk about "off topic" stuff like civil disobedience and food. To me they are all linked.

Excellent posts re: David Walker's forecasts.

However, the real root problem here is "trust". Can citizens "trust" their government to exercise good fiduciary responsibility with funds provided to it for future needs. The clear answer, backed up by years of profligacy, is "no".

BUT....what if we had entrusted our monies to banks...OUCH! Or insurance companies...OUCH!! Or other fiduciary agents...OUCH!!!

And if there is no TRUST, then there can be no order...no government...no capitalist (or any other form of) system.

ONLY CHAOS!!!!

Mankind has always had a problem with greed; however, it has gotten totally out of hand in the last sixty or so years, and until it is restored, heaven only knows what will happen.

kaimu, re 6:25 post--well said, man. I hope you aren't the first one taken out in the revolution.

ALOHA !!

Denny ... IT WOULD BE AN HONOR IF I WAS!!!