SEC Open Meeting March 4, 2008 on Naked Short Selling Anti- Fraud Rule

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/217

Wonder what the folks say there about South African miners..
Would love to be a fly on that wall

South Africa likely to unveil mine power plan Wednesday
Tue 4 Mar 2008, 10:49 GMT
[-] Text [+]

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - South Africa looks set on Wednesday to announce ways to ease the impact of job losses in the mining industry, which faces electricity rationing due to a power crisis, a Chamber of Mines official said on Tuesday.

"I think what the minister said on Friday was that they will make an announcement to mitigate the impact on job losses on Wednesday," said Frans Barker, a senior official at the Chamber of Mines, which represents big mining companies in South Africa.

South Africa's Mining Weekly Web site reported the Department of Minerals and Energy would announce on Wednesday ways to alleviate job losses and ease the impact of the electricity crisis on the mining industry.

Spokesmen for the department and state power utility Eskom were not immediately available for comment.

Department of Minerals and Energy Director General Sandile Nogxina told Mining Weekly a study of the crisis had looked how to ease job losses, as well as possibly restoring 100 percent electricity to the mines.

"I don't think we should talk about 100 percent electricity, because Eskom simply doesn't have the spare capacity to supply 100 percent," Barker said. "There is ongoing contact and information is being supplied and so on."

The country's mining industry, a big foreign exchange earner and employer, ground to a halt for five days in January as blackouts intensified and millions of homes were left without power.

Eskom has since rationed mining companies to 90 percent of their normal needs, leading some to trim production forecasts. Gold Fields, the world's fourth-largest gold miner, has warned it could cut 6,900 jobs.

craig- yes, i noticed, and thanks for your Jesse Livermore quotes...INTC/MU/SNDK/GOOG/MSFT all trading down pre-market...comprises 15% of the total port right now, so we'll be taking a hit of at least 1% today...we'll be deciding during the day whether to exit with losses or or stand firm...sorry i dragged you into it...good luck...

$3 Trillion dollar Cost of War

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=359&objectid=10495927

onlineaces,
thanks for news, are you in GFI or HMY ?

2nd..

Re: TOG

Quick thanks for the ETF recommendations (GLD &GDX)for tax defferred account..started scaling in last Friday...still working towards a better understanding of the bond side of trade, but will be keeping a close watch of the Cara community for assistance on the timing (RRPIX)..Again thank you.

2nd: I didn't see you come into my office and hit "buy MSFT"...I did that.

You aren't responsible! Except of course for getting your fat from the fire. So far I'm not fatally wounded by Mr. softie and I hope you aren't either.

In the words of our host....let it come to you.

stockershock -

Yes, I am GFI.
I'm seeing a terrific surge in price this morning.
Let's hope it stays that way...

Mines could get 100 per cent power 3-Mar-08 11:04 am
Mines could get 100 per cent power - 3rd March 2008

Read more about the platinum group metals markets in Johnson Matthey's bi-annual reviews click here.

South Africa's Government is looking for ways to fully restore power to the mines, a senior official has claimed.

The Department for Minerals and Energy (DME) has assessed the industry and could announce a course of action by Wednesday.

Speaking to Mining Weekly, Sandile Nogxina said an announcement of solutions to mitigate the impact of a national electricity shortage would be made when the plans had been finalised.

Mines are expected to get priority in South Africa's power plans according to Alec Erwin, Public Enterprises Minister.

He said that "energy-saving practices, development of new sources of electricity as well as production of energy-saving technologies" would maintain growth, Reuters reports.

"In this context, the mining industry is receiving priority attention," he explained.

Mining firms have been without full power since January when Eskom said it would only guarantee 90 per cent of their normal power supply.

Meanwhile, Eskom has announced that Hitachi Power Africa has been awarded with a R18.5 billion boiler contract with Alstom S&E has won the turbine island works contact worth R13 billion for the new coal fired power station.

Both firms were awarded similar contracts for the Medupi power station which is being built at Lephalale in Limpopo and is due to start construction in 2012, according to Engineering News.

Eskom said that the Medupi project had given them confidence in the two firms to deliver the project which is part of the Bravo plan.

"Through the fleet strategy Eskom has secured predictable pricing and delivery times for project Bravo. The Medupi tender process built our confidence that these two suppliers," said Chief Officer of Generation Brian Dames.

Sources:

Govt studying ways to fully restore power to mines, 29/02/08
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.ph...

Eskom awards contracts worth R31,5bn for second big coal plant, 29/02/08
http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article...

Reuters

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media_ro...

Bernanke- in twenty years we'll be reading his memoirs, and i honestly think we may be surprised by the intense (political and personal) pressures he's under right now...from the comfort of my desk i can suggest he hold the line on rates, allow certain lenders to fail, and certain homeowners to lose their homes...and let the market take a dive to where it belongs...that's how i think we would all run our households->take the hit, bite the bullet, and get on with it...at his level, he may actually be holding his ground more than we know...

I think the kick the can analogy is probably accurate.

Hard to make twisty balloon party favors from Greenspans Goodyear blimp without turning into the Wizard of Oz....."I don't know how to control this thing".

HMY .... this stock will break out if this news is true. I see a new trading range for HMY between 12.9 - 17.2. Right now, in premarket the stock is showing up on my most actives.

craig- no worries...a 1% hit in one day is something we've experienced more than once this year->will reverse what for 2008 has been less than a week's worth of gains...(in your case, if MSFT is the only position you took, i think you can handle the 3 cent loss ;)

g52- i'm glad GLD/GDX has worked out for you so far, but just to be clear: i don't believe the TOG is yet underway, and personally still waiting for a major pull-back for entries into gold or miners...maromatics seems to have a good handle on the gold trade right now, suggest following his posts...

Japan may move to support tumbling dollar
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:40am GMT 04/03/2008

Pressure is building in Japan for official intervention to cap the surging yen before it triggers a sharp industrial slowdown and tips the country back into slump.

The currency has appreciated by 19pc against the dollar to yen103 since July as Japanese investors retreat from global markets. Foreign hedge funds that borrowed at near zero-rates in Tokyo to chase higher yields abroad are scrambling to unwind "carry trade" positions, estimated at $1.4 trillion in its varied forms.

Fukoku Life, the giant life assurance company, said it planned to "pull out" of US bonds in preference for Japanese debt, a move underway across the Japanese corporate sector as the US yield advantage vanishes. "People are reconsidering the risks (in the US), and see the subprime problems as not being solved at all," said Yuuki Sakurai, the group's finance chief.

http://tinyurl.com/ch867

Good Morning.

There are no Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

Have a great day.

When all the gloom and doom has circulated, it will be time to buy. Perhaps now.
http://wallastoninvestments.com/tuesday-morning-wallaston-report

For those who have not yet perused Warren Buffett’s 31st annual Chairman’s Letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, here is the link to a treasure trove of wit and wisdom:

http://tinyurl.com/2qb6vb

Rob- LOL- appreciate the report, enjoy the salsa lessons...

Interesting the the futures are down ahead of the open. If this continues the trend downward, that would tend to negate the recovery I saw in the short-term (60 min) charts yesterday.

Citigroup is under real pressure now. Indeed, I don't think any of the personalities suggesting now is a good time for the brave to be buying "certain" financials has C in mind.

Kaimu, you commmented "Also I have often wondered what has happened to all those juniors and miners that cught with their pants down invested in ABCP? Did they ever get full repayment? You never hear about that any more." I don't know my ARS from a ABCP, but here's a quote from Apex Silver earnings report on Friday:

"During the fourth quarter 2007 the company liquidated auction rate securities (ARS) investments with a cost basis of $19.5 million for $15.7 million for a loss of $3.8 million, and for the year the company recorded a $30.7 million impairment charge to earnings on the remaining ARS investments it held with an original cost of $52.2 million resulting in a carrying value of $21.5 million at December 31, 2007. The company does not anticipate liquidating the remaining ARS investments during the next twelve months and has classified them as long-term investments at December 31, 2007."

(CA) BANK OF CANADA CUTS 50BPS TO 3.50%

bill- i was hoping you would repeat your CSCO post, put out a buy on INTC, and drive it up 10% LOL...enjoy your day, appreciate all that you and the Cara team are conveying from PDAC...

INTC's triangle breakout to the downside.

Wow.

According to this morning's brokerage balance, I've reached my goal for 2008 as of yesterday's close.

A big thank you to Bill Cara and community, your sage advise has made this possible.

You folks are the greatest.

Regards

2nd Craig

Looking for a bounce in SNDK today...

I know you think I am crazy, but I like to play against the mob...Watching the low put in pre market 21.70...I think that will hold and look for an up day...

I feel the lows for the day are in and we climb..Crazy yes, but time will tell

BH- i know you started buying QID and SKF last october and held on/added during reversals-> congrats...

BOC Cut rates .50

Bernanke's on Bloomberg right now

bg- no such thing as a crazy Caraista...;)

So BH, are you off the rest of the year or are you going to work on 2009 at a leisurely pace here in Caraistaville?

Bull Hunter,

Congradulations! Holding a short in
such wild market for long term is not easy. Do you mind recapping how you
do it so we can all learn.

Would really appreciate it.

Link to Bernanke's remarks (live now on Bloomberg):
http://tinyurl.com/2r5vhc

Congratulations, BH. Maybe with some hard work and application of solid trading discipline I'll be able to say the same by late December. ;)

2nd Your scalp already

SNDK already back at 22.30 pre market

FXP making a big move this morning, still holding but may have to take some off at eod today.

Dave

riteside,

No secrets here, just the courage of one's convictions. I've felt and still do that financial and tech stocks are overpriced. When the market disagrees, I buy more ultra shorts. Collecting a nice divy 4 times a year while waiting for the big one also helps.

I also lucked out on MNTA, which has nearly doubled in four months.

I'm not a technician and my investing is probably rather crude by most standards. I wait until a stock is screaming to be bought, often in the midst of panic selling. I then take either a 1/3 or 1/2 position and look to complete the position on any further weakness.

Truth be told....I think I just got lucky. :^)

Regards

bg- here's your quote for the day: "Yo tengo solamente mi SNDK, y mis cojones."

INTC trying to fight it's way up, back into the triangle.

bg- nice call, my man...

2nd

Sin cojones Me tiene

Cara 100 Update:

INTC target price lowered $29 to $26.50 @ UBS.

BH,

Thanks for sharing your experience. Holding a long term trade is my weakest point, it is when I lost large amount.

When you add on the way down, how do you put stops? or when do you know to call quit. Under what scenario do you add to your positions.

It does take lots of luck to win in the stock market, but luck is when opportunities meet preparedness. You've done it. Take the credit!
& the money!!!!!

Bill,

Do you still like UTX at around $65 even without the deal to build engines for the fuel tanker planes and the Diebold bid?

Thank you very much for your work.

riteside,

I haven't used stops on QID and SKF. In my heart, I know I'm right about techs and financials and will win out in the long run. It also helps to be in at an extremely low cost basis (most of my SKF shares were bought at $72).

After a few days run of "irrational exuberance" in the tech or financial stocks, I'll add more ultra shorts. I'll let some go when the inverse happens.

Basically, I operate on gut feeling and conviction.......pretty crude, huh?

Regards

BH,

Thanks for sharing.

g034, INTC:

I am showing descending triangle not violated on and still in tact. I am pretty sure you are using closing prices where I am using candles. I give more credence to the candles on this one but that's just me.

http://tinyurl.com/37vcu4

Man Down.

2nd you lost a wingman on LDK as I was stopped out for a -3% loss on the trade. You will have to fly this one with Craig now.

Congrats B.H. Can you also tell how much you watch the screen? I get out too early rather than worry while I'm at work and away from the screen.
TIA
Gray

LDK: I stopped out just below support yesterday.

geck- thanks for the heads up...i'm making coffee right now, so i'll let craig try to maneuver it out of the nose dive...

In the last couple weeks someone posted about a company that was debuting during PDAC that was going to offer free quotes. I can't find any info through search. Anybody remember?

BG, 2nd,
SNDK: Y muy loco en cabasa.

Photogray,

I don't start work until 3:00 pm. I can watch all but the last 90 minutes. Not working on Fridays, I do much of my trading at the end of the week.

I get out too early way too often. Taking a profit is never the wrong thing to do?

Regards

QQQQ's - watch it if it pops 42.60 and heads north for market direction..acting strong even with bad news..odd..but right there right now

Scaling into NOT @6.43 this morning.

gold shares have not kept pace with the metal in the recent run towards $1000.

the set up looks better and better for a quick pull back with the broad market before alot of money on the sides gets deployed.

50 points cut in canada, with inflation burning...
rate cut fever is spreading from the US across our border.

Yaba

Thanks a million for the report on your meeting with Roxmark management, Aloouf, etc.

It sounds like they were very confident about the projects. Most importantly, I like to hear that management sounds approachable and realistic. Yesterday's news release sounded as if everything is chugging along. Thanks for the tip on the fact that the other drill is currently being mobilized.

I am trying to be a realist with this investment. If RMK continues to execute, as I think they will, it should allow them to be one of the first producers in the area in this cycle and could give them an upper hand in future JV projects or exploration.

I hope the rest of the PDAC is/was just as fruitful for your research!

Cheers

geckojb, IMO, your your horizontal trend line is incorrect. The lower trend line should connect the lows which would give an up sloping line. Currently on my chart the price is just below this line.

Bernanke-

http://tinyurl.com/2dacqo

"Rather than cling to the illusion that they'll get repaid in full, banks should face up to their losses from all those bad mortgages they underwrote, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told bankers Tuesday."

"It's time to take the losses onto the books, so they and the rest of the economy can move on, he said.
All the debt counseling, foreclosure freezing, HOPE alliancing, and interest-rate reducing haven't made a dent in the problem yet. So far, he said, you haven't done nothing.
Bernanke's remarks were the clearest sign yet that he's beginning to understand the full extent of the mess the banks made.
"This situation calls for a vigorous response," Bernanke said in a speech to the Independent Community Bankers of America. The only way to avoid millions of foreclosures is to figure out how to reduce the principal amount the homeowner owes."

"But Bernanke was optimistic that the brilliant minds who cooked up the complicated financial instruments that got us into this problem can also figure a way to get us out.
And if they can't, maybe it's time for more "vigorous" action from someone who can."

more like it...

Telestar, negatory I think 5 touches in the flat part speaks volumes. But hey, sometimes there is no right and wrong just different eyes coming to different conclusions. I don't accept mine as totally right but I think it is.

"So far, he said, you haven't done nothing." i'm pretty sure he didn't say that (that would be the marketwatch editor asleep at the wheel)...

Telestar, I do think both are valid. If mine is more valid then we should see some sort of increased selling of the horizontal break. At the end of the day both price patterns are bearish and show a continuing downtrend.

Basketguy,

BLESS YOU!

For your 9:09AM post

Jaketh,

Trading stocks and playing music are my passions in this life. There is more money to be made in 2008.

You can bet I'll stay in the game.

Regards

Isaiah64v4 You are very welcome...I am good for one of those a month..:^)

By the way..I am looking for a turn in DJIA around 12050...Just a hunch, maybe..but again time will tell...

DJIA headed below 12,100...

geckojb, clearly we are all free to draw trend lines any way we want. There is nothing wrong with drawing horizontal lines for potential areas of support. IMO the majority of experienced chartists which draw as I suggest but there is certainly open to debate. G034 stated that the triangle has broken to the downside, that's not possible in your case. How many years did g034 spend on the floor?

Anyway to each his own, just tried to answer your question. Good Luck.

BOC rates of 3.5% following the yields on treasuries:

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/tbill.html

Thanks Telestar. This is a learning house where we post different variations on an idea. I tried hard to come across as someone who is very open to different interpretations hopefully you saw that. I am very aware of g034's experience and respect it.

Bobj,

It is called vantagewire.com

Just checking it out myself.

I'm still seeing bullish divergences forming on the 60 min charts for the major indexes. I've tightened up my stop on the few shares I shares I still have in SDS.

Will it turn or continue down. IIRC, last week Colin Twiggs wrote that if the SPX breaks below 1300, we could go as low as 1200. Could be a lot of traders are waiting for that key level to be tested.

I'm occupied with day job obligations today, so I won't be able to watch closely today.

Basketguy/ QUASI : Look at AAPL in the face of this tape...ascending traingle ..not coming down with the QQQQ, if tape flips..AAPL could take off..

gold is down $10, GDX down 2.75%...

TMA/FMT- bernanke's words, even if acted upon, will not be saving these two...

gold just went into free fall,
whats happening here?

Wow, ESLR is now off 50% from its late December highs. Trouble is, it could go even lower if the flight from small caps continues.

Gold spot -$15 in 15 minutes....news?

Big Beta is acting well here even as the market crumbles. This might be telling us something. As Bill said, watch the Nasdaq 10 for direction. I would add BIDU to that list as well as many traders speculate with it.

that was a nice selling wave, hoping it worked off some of the bullish sentiment...if you're long and still upright, maybe you can surf your way to some decent exits...

yeah, it's not golden baby / bathwater time just yet...

did Ben B. allude to a halting of future rate cuts, or is gold falling with the rest of the market? this sudden down swing seemed odd....

if bernanke's pointing out that rate cuts, among other things, have not made a dent in the problem, and is now looking at reducing the principal owed by the homeowner, can we infer that he's done cutting rates?

They still think rate cuts are stimulative. My Argus note this am talks about the Real Fed Funds rate is negative and that it's wildly stimulative. Now I am no expert, or work on a floor of a stock exchange, we already established that this morning but how giving away free money isn't going to solve bad debts is it?

can't agree with reduction of principal either...the only 'fair' solution is for both homeowner and lender to admit they made bad decisions, and pay the price...

BillySundance

PDAC has been most fruitful and I am heading down there now to pay for the Trade Show section. It was most successful for me. Big thanks belongs to Bill for opening my eyes to this amazing gathering of most interesting people. Cheers

Huge reversal in AEM on heavy volume. Remember it is a bellcow for the sector. Could be the top in gold Bill's been predicting.

Gold: nibbling on the dip...

:-)

geck- totally agree...where does the bail-out mentality come from anyway-> are we only able to elect politicians who promise to cut taxes while simultaneously promise not to entitlement programs...can't run my house that way, and the House should know we can't run the country that way...

Gold

Perhaps as gold has been testing the psychological $1000 barrier, powers-that-be have taken the opportunity to give it a sucker punch. I can't help but believe that this will present a window of opportunity to buy before the price heads back upwards and turns that $1000 mark into support instead of resistance. I can't ignore the fundamental inflation picture and Colin Twigg's TA is suggesting something along these lines.

It will be interesting to watch how the miners fare, given that they'd already been underperforming gold. Will they get further discounted or will they have some cushioning built in?

...not to 'cut' entitlement programs..

Early this morning, Tim Knight showcased ABX as his favorite gold short. ABX now -2.05 -3.8%

http://www.slopeofhope.com/

manx928,

i follow the miner's/gold ratio closely
and have felt that it bottomed recently
from a TA standpoint,

but the ratio has plumbeted for the past 1.5 years, and it may be many months before we see the miners pulling ahead of the metal.

the most positive sign ive seen the past few weeks has been the Venture exchange which has made a small run up and a few of my JR's have held up fairly well this morning since the recent slump in gold. normally they would be down a few pennies when gold was up $10, and would free fall down hard if gold was flat or dropped $5.

i think this links in to bill's TOG (trade of the generation) that slowly the conditions are emerging for gold's run and bonds fall.

Anybody miss Louise Yamada on FastMoney last night?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=671700945&play=1

Have had a large put on ABX since yesterday and starting to very lightly go long (as they go down) on SLW HL EXK AUY NG KGC GFI.

SMH (-30%) has been decimated almost as much as XLF (-35%) comparing either to last summer's highs...just looking for reasons not to give up on my Naz holdings right now ;)

11am takedown in the bullion. Standard operating procedure.

The majors are very richly valued and up more than 50% in 6 months while the juniors have been decimated. On any gold pullback it seems likely that the majors will fall harder than the juniors. In fact I am thinking of hedging my junior exposure with a short on a major like AEM.

Geckojb, Telestart, G034, and all re INTC and chart patterns,

Interesting subject, symmetrical triangle, descending triangle or something else ? I'm still trying to get better at this stuff too, open to alot of interpretation and different points of view. I see this often happening over the charts, its good, keeps me/us thinking.

In this case I have a problem seeing the symmetrical triangle, I can see a series of fan lines but not a well defined symmetrical triangle. I tend to look at the chart, draw some random lines by gut feel on price and vol, heavier lines where vol confirms. Then I see what it looks like, sometimes something , sometimes it looks like nothing. I try not to pick the pattern first and then force it into the chart somewhere as that just doesn't work for me.

Wish we had a separate board for just TA discussions. How do you guys come up with the pattern??

Of course by the time I get this posted everything will have changed, as usual.

INTC daily
http://tinyurl.com/2vtfzo

INTC 60 min
http://tinyurl.com/3e4q8x

2nd_ave said:

"can't agree with reduction of principal either...the only 'fair' solution is for both homeowner and lender to admit they made bad decisions, and pay the price..."

2nd, the only faction that will ultimately benefit from this mortgage fiasco if lenders do not readjust principal levels of mortgages that are under water will be the vulture real estate funds. Those funds are waiting in the wings to take this inventory off the lender's hands, but they'll watch and wait and let the markets continue to collapse, which will take the country into a much deeper downturn. The vulture funds aren't looking to buy at 40-50 cents on the dollar, they're waiting for 20-25 cents on the dollar; and we're still a LONG ways from those valuations in the RE market.

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/

Blogger poll: last time the blogger poll was this bearish was March 15th 2007. Big trend up from that point.

The key difference I see now is that in March 2007 the poll was also much less bullish - meaning to me that there was much less money invested on the long side last March than today, so there was more sidelined money to flow into the market, causing the runup.

Other thoughts?

Dave

Help requested:

Would one of our technically oriented traders, with a minute to spare, kindly look at a chart of MNTA and let me know what you see?

I'm way up on this one and my head tells me to take profits but my gut says this one has a lot more upside. I'm a chart reading bozo.

Thanks

Quasi, once I captured an image from Gadwin, what program do you use to upload to a public server? I would like to post a chart like you just did, but do not like google pages since it basically puts out one's email address. TIA

Opps, Should have waited a little more on scaling back into NOT!!

Playing Imperial Stormtroopers music from Star Wars here....:>)

MON in at 112.85
Added GLD
Added GFI
Added GSS
Added WGW
Added PGH

Anyone hear a helicopter? A big ol' Sykorsky...

Use the force Caraistas....it is strong in you.

Todd- i see your point...like them or not, vultures have their place in the ecology of the capital markets...

the banks, of course, will take the least expensive option->neither a foreclosure or a write-down will help the bottom line, but a write-down may be faster and less painful...still don't think the borrower should be able to walk away->the US has fostered one of the most 'lenient' cultures i know...

Hi,

Ok, so now that things appear calmer, here is my opinion:

The drop in POG today was not the usual 11 am stuff, because the selling occurred simultaneously across several asset classes.

This was portfolio liquidation, nodern style...

That is why I am seeing it as a good gold buy.

Cheers,

Seems like the short term market psychology regarding $1,000 gold could be similar to that of $100 oil.

Oil marched up to the very psychological $100 mark only to be knocked down shortly thereafter to the $90-95 range.

Is it possible that the $1000 mark for gold has been overly anticipated in the short term and that a trip back to $900-950 range is in order to clear out an abundance of short-term upside protection (i.e. calls at the $1000 strike) before the next leg begins?

(On a side note, I happened to catch a bit of CNBSC's Jim Cramer pounding the table on gold last night - pumping AEM specifically). Certainly another sign that the masses are taking note.

-----------------------------------------

On another side note, I am loading reloading on some Laramide resources this morning (LAM.TO). I think the powers that be (TD Securities namely) are trying to keep it hovering below the $5 mark.

'neither..nor'

craig- wow, man...should have saved the spanish for later..good luck...

Billy,

It was just portfolio liquidation....wait and see.

Telestar

I use image ImageShack image hosting service, open account, email address only no detailed info required, takes maybe 2 mins in total to get activated. Then when you login there is a tab to upload images, I keep that page bookmarked on auto load.

http://www.imageshack.us/

Also here's another page I put together on the subject of posting charts and links. Its on Google doc's and yes I tried it for images but didn't like it as much as ImageShack, right now. Why do you say Google pages gives out your email address, maybe I'm looking in the wrong place but can't find any reference to my email address.

http://tinyurl.com/29fv5t

Quasi, right on. More discussion like the INTC chart is good for the community. I think Telestar may of been offended by the harsh "negatory" comment which I didn't mean in a malicious way so my apologies to T3d if that's the case. The best discourses are those where multiple people chime in with different interpretations like the one on TOG that's been happening.

You mean for the cuss words?

So far higher intraday lows and rising technicals....'so far' the operatives.

We likely have to see Jan. lows some time.

craig- no, those were words of sincere admiration...

2nd_ave

To take this discussion a bit further, allowing the borrowers to write down some of the principal they agreed to pay is indeed against free market principles. But I would add a few stipulations so that those who received the relief would not be able to simply turn around and dump more inventory on the market.

If principal reduction was given, I think the borrowers should have to agree to a 3-5 year window where they cannot sell the property or else they lose the principal write down. It would give incentive for borrowers to continue to make payments because their payments are more affordable and help reduce some of the inventory.

The lenders would be MUCH better off to give principal reductions than go through the very lengthy and costly foreclosure process. Plus, in the time it takes to foreclose a property the borrower has likely stopped any maintenance on the property, so the lender is left with a property that is run down and has lost even more value.

This fiasco is going to get a WHOLE lot worse if it is allowed to unwind as it has over the last 2+ years. The continued re-pricing of inventory is lowering real estate values on an ongoing basis, and the vulture funds will not step in until there is blood in the streets. We're not there yet, IMO.

It can get a LOT worse if this process is allowed to play out, and that will ultimately cost all U.S. citizens much more in the long run than if drastic action like what Bernanke suggested this morning is not taken.

Just my opinions, as always.

BH,
MNTA is an up stock in a down market, also, it has just taken out yesterday's hi. Wonder if it has the momentum to fill Nov's gap at around 12

Silly me! Buying my butt off. Azimut (AZM), U.S. Gold (UXG), Rubicon (RMX), Western Goldfields (WGI), Dynasty Metals (DMM) and Copper Fox (CUU).

2nd: Either way, look at SRS....

If we are in for more losses, and I think the Fed is signaling so, this one should make $$$.

Craig: Wont you get better prices for SRS after a fed announce ment of fed cut? Despite the fact that 2 yr are lower..and makret rates are lower..pscyhological and price boost to IYR..gives you a juicy entry for SRS..no?

riteside,

MNTA IS an anomaly in a down market. Does it look like it might get to 12?

Thanks for your response.

Regards

T: Google does not give out your email address. For posting images I use GooglePages.com (Not Google docs, they are two different things). You basically get 0.5GB with each account.

Googledocs is great too, I use it for all my spreadsheets and they have some amazing features now (like live form input for data entry, as well as live finance functions).

I do not use, nor look at imageshack images because their nasty popups throw my pop-up blocked in a spin, and it shuts down my broker's screens, not fun. GooglePages has no ads and no pop-ups.

Todd- if banks grant let's say an average of 25% write-downs in the principal amounts owed on their sub-prime mortgages, then i foresee a multitude of collateral issues-

leaving aside the percentage of borrowers who are in trouble despite responsible behavior, we're left with people who speculated at the expense of lenders...do they immediately repent and become responsible borrowers, or do they smile in disbelief at hitting the jackpot and run out to buy a new car?...

what about the responsible neighbors- what's to stop them from negotiating write-downs in their mortgage? what if one of them loses his job and can't make payments on time->will he/she able to invoke the bail-out law of 2008 to keep his/her residence intact?

what if later this year (right after the VISA IPO), credit card companies start to notice huge deliquencies...do we then chime in with write-downs of credit card balances?

it may "ultimately cost all U.S. citizens much more in the long run than if drastic action like what Bernanke suggested this morning is not taken," but over an even longer run it may ultimately cost US citizens and their offspring even more by further tearing the social fabric of our country...

JMO...

Hello,

Anyone investing in ethical funds a.k.a. SRI or similar? Are there index funds in this niche?

This niche in now $503 billion in Canada, or %20 of all assets managed in Canada.

Thanks in advance,
Sustain_ability

bailing out of shorts...:) Time for a nap...

bill hunter re: MNTA
If I were trading on a daily chart, I'd be exiting now, waiting for confirmation of this up move. Why? RSI is extended, prior support right in this area ($10-ish) could easily prove to become resistance, downtrend line from feb 07 through nov 07 is right here also.

This advice is worth what you paid for it...

Dave

bill hunter - my MNTA comments above are based on a non-log chart (which is what I generally use for short-med term analysis).

Dave

Quasi and all, thanks. Here are my first attempts link charts. I like to keep things simple.

Based on the break of Intel it has a price objective of 16.03 ((triangle width 21.82-18.05= 3.77) 19.80-3.77=16.03)).

http://tinyurl.com/39t2yb

Based on the break of MRVL it has a price objective of 15.04 ((triangle width 13.03-9.07= 3.26) 11.88-3.26=15.14)).

http://tinyurl.com/2u7er7

This is the way I like to look at things, if you disagree or find errors with my projections let me know. TIA

DaveB,

Thank you. You input is greatly appreciated.

Regards

bill hunter - you're most welcome. By the way - I just have to ask (since I really do love to hear great success stories), what is your basis in MNTA (if you don't mind sharing publicly)?

That was a great pick, and I really want to ask what led you to look at MNTA?

Thanks in advance,

Dave

What's the next support level on the SP500 past 1310....? Any thoughts, thanks, rk

2nd_ave, Craig: Do you guys think the stocks are getting oversold now, after 4 straight down days? Is it time to close the shorts? I still have some SRS and some XLF shorts, but I am thinking that maybe I should at least close my XLF short completely, as I bought it in two chunks at $26.9 and then at $27.5, and it fell significantly from those levels already, possibly waranting some rebound...

Thanks,

DavidV

DaveB,

My cost basis is $5.43

MNTA was given to me about a year ago by a friend who is a client of a large brokerage firm. I stored the info until the FDA refused approval of their Lovenox generic. They asked MNTA for missing information in their submission. Wall Street, of course, assumed that the sky was falling and sold it down into the 4's, where the price was roughly equal to their assets.

I sold half my shares at $7.53 (dumb me) and let the remaining shares ride.

If you visit their website and look at the pipeline, it appears to be a solid company. They have a lot of cash, too. I wouldn't buy in at this level but would add on any major pullback.

Thanks for asking.

Regards

DavidV- not sure what your time horizons are...personally, i don't think anything moves in a straight line, so if you're happy with your gains, take them...longer term, i defer to bill's outlook for DJIA/NASD 10/2, so i see nothing wrong with a short bias...

Doesn't Cramer have an uncanny ability to call the top in a stock by recommending it? If he recommended AEM last night he is already looking like a fool.

I see oil and materials rolling over - deflation? - but AAPL, BIDU and RIMM being bid into the green. Rotation back to Tech?

MRVL, by the way the stock did not break the triangle. I just projected where the point would be if and when it occurs for purposes of the previous calculation.

Quasi, I will set up and try Imageshack next time.

Geckojb no offense taken, like you say just sharing ideas.

DavidV: As a trade I might on XLF but the chart isn't definitive although MACD is upward.

Maybe take some now and watch intraday resistance at/near 25 - 25.12.

Longterm I think both financials and RE are good shorts. JMO.

Todd,
Lenders can only forgive part of the principal if they own the loan. Most loans were pooled securitized and now belong to a large number of investors. The contracts defining these securities do not permit major modifications to the pool without the consent of each of the investors; there are also tax ramifications for the servicers if they do so. The servicers also do not usually have the staff to do large numbers of loan modifications. I think the situation is a lot more complicated than legislators (and most of us) expect.

bull hunter - a great success story on MNTA! Let's keep them coming...

Dave

DavidV: The indices are in your favor though...

One more issue and I'm done for the day. I sure wish I had the ability to edit MRVL should be Based on the break of MRVL it has a price objective of 15.14 ((triangle width 13.03-9.77= 3.26) 11.88+3.26=15.14)).

Link to Bernanke's remarks re foreclosures delivered at the ICBA National Convention & Techworld in Orlando, FL, earlier today:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=672575637

craig- stepping back and being honest, i see no reason to prolong the hit i'm taking on technology-> out of SNDK/MU/INTC/GOOG/MSFT...1.14% hit to the port...price i pay for putting money on the 'rotation into tech' thesis...

kiron,

I agree with your opinion.

Banks can't even foreclose many properties because they can't produce the paperwork. They aren't even sure who owns the loan.

IMHO, this new help for homeowners talk is all for show.

Regards

Telestar, SiO2

Great job Telestar, its a little hard to see your trend lines, (with black background), but I see where you're coming from chart wise. Try using the link code in Photobucket "Direct Link" rather than the "Share Link", that way we will only see the chart and not your Photobucket album page. Also in Gadwin you can you can open the properties box, go to source tab and select rectangle rather than the default current window, this allows you to hi light only the chart or whatever you want. As for trying ImageShack, maybe hold off as SiO2 said he has problems, thus others may have problems.

SiO2, yes I see Google pages is a little different than Google docs basically a little web page, but it does use your gmail acct name as the URL address, unless there is a way around that, (dummy gmail acct).

First I've heard of problems with ImageShack causing pop up problems and crashes, I use an old version of Adsgone and never see pop ups or have problems. But good to know it causes problems for others, not what I want, I'll look into alternatives.

Here's my two charts reposted on Google Pages.

INTC daily
http://tinyurl.com/23ldxg

INTC 60 min
http://tinyurl.com/ytxo5s

2nd: I'll make lunch money on MSFT....:>)

However, MON is eating it....

Q: You just create a site with a different name, you can have 5 of them, so no relation with your email address.

Perhaps you can add this to your wonderful guide: people posting tinyurls could add what the source/site is (e.g., from "Bloomberg", or from "imageshack", this way I know better whether to click on the link or not).

Thanks.

GFI - Intraday double bottom @ 14.65

Quasi, thanks again for the tips, will do.

from russ winter's blog...pension funds are frequently bagholders...

For those still confused or questioning the fundamental versus CUB aspects of this, I direct you to a must read article from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. I am not sure about his final conclusions, but here are a few key takeaways.

India faces a mountain of surplus sugar. Over 20m tonnes sit in warehouses, begging for buyers. Brazil has ramped up cane production in a burst of expansion. It is now exporting record amounts of sugar, even after diverting half its harvest into ethanol for cars. By any definition, there is a global glut. Yet this has not stopped sugar futures jumping 40pc since December, reaching $14.18 (£7.15) a pound on the March 2008 contract.

Sugar has been swept up with the whole gamut of commodities - grains, metals, oil and gas - in a fevered surge of investment in futures contracts, regardless of the real demand from daily users. Wheat has risen 112pc in four months. Judy Ganes-Chase, a commodity expert at J Gaines Consulting, said the market had become unhinged.

“The strength of base metals is absolutely bewildering given that the US is falling into recession,” said Stephen Briggs, a metals analyst at Société Générale. “America matters. There is economic contagion in Europe and it is spreading to emerging markets as well, yet people don’t seem to care. They are taking no notice of the economic fundamentals, or they’re betting that supply will continue to fall short even if demand slows. This is dangerous. Base metals are highly cyclical. Sentiment can change overnight,”

The “culprit” is the new breed of commodity index funds. Each week over the last two months, between $5bn and $10bn of fresh money has been pouring into the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, and other funds, according to a UBS study. Together, the indexes now hold $200bn. “Some commodities have leapt into the stratosphere over the last year: they’ve been pushed higher than the fundamentals merit,” said John Reade, head of the UBS metals team. The buyers are typically big institutions such as Calpers (the California retirement fund), or the Dutch pension funds.

Crude oil has surged to $104 a barrel, yet US gasoline inventories are at the highest level in 14 years. Oil stocks have been rising for the last seven weeks, even though we are at the top of the winter season when inventories normally fall. The tsunami of pension money is beginning to distort the market for energy futures. Texas oilman T Boone Pickens said investment froth has pushed up prices by $15.

got in
InTC
GLW
SNDK
UYG
and OEXCB
and I am under water very deep

which is not say there is no rotation into technology..on a relative basis, SMH (-1.27%) doing better than commodities [XLB (-3.7%), XLE (-3.3%)] at the moment...

On CNBC (the joker station), they were talking about the FED doing an emergency cut and than cut again at March meeting. If the FED does this it is completely and absolutely incompetent.

I say as much as it would hurt, let's cleanse the system right now. Raise rates, help the dollar and let the chips fall where they will. Bubbles just cannot continue to infinity. This would hurt a lot of people, but what we are doing is clearly not working and will not solve the problem.

As for trying to do principal reduction on mortgages, this is absurd. What the hell are contracts for?

2nd_ave, Craig: thanks for your suggestions! I did close the XLF short now, keeping only SRS open, as it didn't have a significant move up yet. As for my time horizon, I prefer to operate on several of them simultaneously. :) That is, I keep some core long positions long-term, and can even designate some short positions as long-term hedges on my longs. However, at the same time I like to use 1/3 to 1/4 of my capital for tracking market fluctuations on daily basis (buy after multi-day declines and put sell limit orders 3-5% above, or sell short after multi-day rallies and place buy-to-cover limit orders 3-5% below). My limit orders sometimes get hit the next day if my timing is lucky, or they can hang in there for a month or two, which is fine with me, as I start treating these positions long-term and correspondingly start closing similar positions to maintain the desired ratio of longs to shorts for the current market climate.

Now a question about SRS (ultra-short for IYR): does anyone have ideas as to why it has decoupled from SKF and is lagging it on the way up? Even XHB has falling much more than IYR recently. Do REITs (the major component of IYR) stand to gain much more from the possibility of future interest rate reductions than XLF or XHB?

Not looking good today for a hold at 1310. Down volume on NYSE is 85%. ABX markets are in free fall. Materials and Oil rolling over. I would guess there are a bunch of hedge funds in trouble and liquidating, like Pequot, which had very experienced management and didn't take much risk besides leverage. But anyone levered is in trouble in this market.

FXP now into the Feb 11-12 gap. Will it fill? (would take 99.50) to do so.

I'm really wondering if I can continue to hold this (very large) position beyond today, but rsi is not yet extreme and it's now above the downtrend line from jan 23 through feb 11.

Advice / thoughts will be appreciated

Dave

Any thoughts on GS for a trade here?

Have a look at those who are supposed to enforce rules.... Contracts seem to made for breaking and keys for mailing.

vinod- are you underwater to the extent of your february gains?

IBN being punished over writedowns due to U.S. subprime exposure.

GFI - Intraday double bottom has broken down. Now 14.59.

Moab, agreed, with all sectors down and many hedges funds over leveraged, it feels like margin calls and forced selling. Last I heard Citadel was leveraged about 100:1, but with their hedges in place it was only 16:1. YUM!

Dave- i think your trade is working out fine...it's just your position size that may need tweaking...we each operate with different risk tolerances-> if "very large" simply means you've been adding on strength to a winning position and you've been sleeping well at night, i don't see a major problem holding out for more gains...

2nd

up to this time underwater for $1500

craig- gold down $28...can't recall if you were trading gold in 2006- just reminding you that corrections in gold/miners are no joke...may as well drive the positions over a cliff...small position sizes...

2nd: I'm thinking the same thing - it's really the size of my position that's making me squirm right now on FXP. So I clearly need to lighten up and let the rest ride on a good trade.

thanks

Dave

BH,

I don't know, but I'll use stop to let it run.

vinod- glad to hear that..so you've really only given up a fraction of your gains...if i were in your shoes i would be clearing both the table and my head->capital preservation makes more sense right now...how was lunch at legal seafood...

Legal Seafood........mmmmmmmmmmm
Jimmy's Harborside........mmmmmmmmmmm

You guys are making me wicked hungry. :^)

Who's playing HGD here? If this is at all reminiscent of May 2006, then Gold has a far way to fall. However, I suspect that with interest rates likely being cut again in the near future, maybe Gold has some serious support to remain in the 900s.

BH- under the circumstances, you're buying, right...

I'm wondering if the gold sell-off is a strategic set-up for a Bernanke rate cut within the next 24 hours?

2nd,

I'd be delighted to buy you lunch anytime, my friend.

Regards

Now may be a good time to go over that LONG list..GS above 163

Gotta head to work.

Thanks for a great day, all.

Please be careful. My Spidey Sense is warning of an imminent collapse.

Regards

Vinod - you may want to consider diversifying your trading stocks a bit.

With INTC, GLW, SNDK, you have 3 technology stocks that are highly correlated. When technology falls, they are all likely fall simultaneously. Diversification will help to moderate day-to-day changes in your portfolio.

Bill,

I don't understand why you put HSBC on the sell-list. After daily-RSI did cross 30 a couple of weeks ago now weekly-RSI does the same. Is it short term profit taking that you prefer ? Maybe daily/ weekly RSI won't come back under 30 for a new buy signal and you'll miss the big run up.

A cross of weekly RSI is sometimes used for the longer term investor, right ? What is the difference in time horizon for using different RSI-periods ? At the moment i prefer buying when daily comes above 30 (and weekly/ monthly are below 30). I sell when all are above 70 and daily drops below 70). I know it depends on your horizon which rules to apply but maybe you can explain a little bit more. Even a longer term investor sometimes wants to take some short term profits.

Mark

BH- LOL..when my youngest turns 12, we're going to hit the road and stop to meet as many Caraistas as we can...

SRS

I bought this one a week ago at $102 as it touched held the lower trend line. I'm going to hang in for what I think will be a continuation upwards, even though this sharp jump this past week makes one think it could correct a bit. The chart suggests to me that a swing trade can be good for at least 20%, so my thinking is why settle for less than 15%. (Especially for someone like me that didn't have a $US account, so have to pay the exchange costs both in and out.) Also, if you look at TOL, you see a pretty clear double-top, which suggests that there's more downside to at least that homebuilder.

DJIA is down 200 and TLT in the red? don't think the market's looking for rate cuts right now...

Still holding FXP($81) now @ $99 up over 20%

Holding DUG up over 10%+ from Thurs
Holding SDS up over 10%+ from Thurs

All in my ROTH with 80% invested in those 3.

I see more downside, but you never know...

That is a large position. I would have never bet on the market going down without this site to help me see clear! I didn't even know about ETF's for my ROTH until a month ago

VIX: the aug 07 and jan 08 lows were associated with VIX numbers of around 37ish. So with VIX readings of 27.12ish if this move gets going we have a ways to go.

buy programs kicking in....

30 yr bonds now 4.66% - maybe the bond move begins

Dave

opps - meant 4.46%

Dave

SRS - addendum

Contrary to my money being on SRS, I'll note here that I just listened to David Skarica give his talk at the PDAC, in which he included a comment about being bullish on home builders. He was planning on getting back into them as he figured they would rebound well ahead of an actual rebound in the housing market, and he was thinking that the time elapsed since that bubble burst was similar to that following previous bubbles, (e.g. tech).

2nd_ave...

You have a place to stay in Chicago My friend...I'll treat you and Your 12 year old to a Cubs game...

Cramer just pounded the table "buy this market right here" (on CNBC). He said the put buying ios the highest he's ever seen "off the charts, it cannot be right"!

fwiw....

Dave

2:52 PM NYS Insur. Dept. Sources Say Ambac Deal Progressing But Not Done - CNBC's Gasparino Reports
RTTNEWS.COM

Consider the source ...

SiO2

You must have a different version of Google pages, they are only giving me 100Meg storage and allow only 3 website names. Settings page gives you a box to change a site name but it doesn't work, help search confirms there's a problem with that. But I did just create a new page under QuasiCharts.googlepages.com, no home page so you'll just get a 404 error if you go there, need an actual URL to the chart file.

Good point on the TinyURL problem, I've thought of that in the past, going blind to an unknown site. Wouldn't normally do it but haven't had a problem on Bills site. I will add it to my ChartPosting 101 Doc, its just common courtesy to let people know where you're sending them, although you gotta trust what they say. In your case I would go to TinyURL home page and activate the preview feature, left menu, it sets a cookie on your machine that will take you to a page with the whole URL redirect, then you decide if you want to proceed or not.

Chartposting 101 on Googledocs updated
http://tinyurl.com/29fv5t

bg- that's very generous of you...hope we all get a chance to meet in vegas before then...

Saw the Cramer thing, too. Erin was saying "IF" the Ambac thing gets solved today, what would you do? TO which he replied, "buy this market, right here, right now." He also said he wanted to buy the market right now, even if Ambac doesn't get "fixed" today. When he thought the camera was off, he and Erin had this little laugh together. Hmm.. I wonder what that meant? Ha.

ALOHA !!

cyderman ... I guess Apex won't be selling those ARS lead weights and "long term" is an understatement! Who knows what type of ARS they have? Tied to muni or corp? Little did they know they had the best investment right under their noses! Those are some big losses. Too bad! They're not the same as ABCP but I do know that Goldman Sachs started ARS back in the 1980s. With so many recently failed auctions it is hard to unload these due to a lack of "confidence" in the underlying assets. More proof that high return rates don't mean much when principal is destroyed! Thats the one thing ARS does have in common with ABCP.

Am I the only one out here wondering why all this seems to be happening to only the mining sector and we never hear a peep out of the CSCOs and the GEs and the MSFTs? One would assume similar fates have befallen their cash holdings. Or does MSFT keep all its cash under the corporate mattress?

cramer- just deflecting attention from pounding the table on buying AEM last night...

of course, that was IF gold goes up today...

back into SNDK/MU/GOOG/INTC for a trade...

INTC - sorry about the confusion on the triangle. In a prior post I mentioned that it is not a true triangle, I was using the uptrend line as the bottom of my "triangle". If I ever posted the word "symmetrical" in my INTC posts, I'm sorry, though I don't think I did. I originally was suggesting looking at a straddle if the consolidation continued towards an apex in my makeshift "triangle". I probably should have continued posting that my triangle was not a true triangle. What do expect from a former knuckle dragging pit trader?

Gold - I have been posting about ways to take gains or hedge your longs for a few days now. Gold tends to trade around round numbers...you can't get much rounder than $1000. The double short gold ETF, DZZ, is up 5% now, if you took that route (I know Kaimu, I know).

Stocks - Bill's got his Cara 100 and if that is not enough stocks, you could probably add 100 more high quality ones to a watch list. Why try to catch a falling knife? Why not simply use Bill's techniques and buy after the stock has finished consolidating and add some short trades into strength? Why fight the trend?

WAG sure is resilient.

So I saw gold take a dive this morning, so I jumped into the car, and ran off to my local coin shop. Suddenly, they don't have any Eagles, but the guy at the counter had to ask the owner, so I have to doubt this. I'm guessing he bought his supply higher, and doesnt' want to sell lower - can't blame him. He also said that the price dive was because the April futures just went off or on, I'm not sure, nor sure what that would mean. Maybe someone here who knows futures can say? Anyway, they said I could order some and lock in the current price, but since I left the shop, it has fallen farther. Personally, given the environment, I was inclined to think it was liquidation. Oil is down, too. Someone has a commodity port that they've had to dump, maybe, or just taking profits. Will try another shop to see if they have any in stock. Does anyone know how much above spot is fair to pay? I think he wants about $42, but I'm not sure. That seemed high, but maybe it's not?

Dave- may want to close FXP now...

adding QLD for a trade...67.20

MACD is turning up on the 60 minute S&P chart. Sure seems like CNBC media personalities are trying to turn the market higher off of support every week now. It's disgusting and the SEC is criminally negligent in enforcing the law.

2nd

Do you think this is it the $$$$ rotating in to tech that you were looking for?

2nd - lol - thinking the same. Almost makes we want to reverse it, but that's not a "wise" move vis-a-vis protecting capital...

Dave

don't know and don't care...short horizon..

QLD off 68.20...

QLD- in again 67.88

Gold is in a wave 5 up, the largest of the five legs. Target way beyong 1300 by year end.

The PM Miners are in a wave 3 up, suggesting a possible sell off and the Dow rides it's 3 of iii down, which seems to have started. Then the PM Miners will have a wave 5 up after the carnage is over.

I picked up a little SWC but am waiting to see if the 3 of iii down is real.

Stocks other than PM usually have the largest move in wave 3, up or down.

Hold the DXD, SRS, and REW IMHO. Anyone who thinks the RE debacle is anywhere near over and is buying home builders is totally clueless IMHO. We are just getting started for a many year rolling disaster.

Border Gold posts its Buy/Sell spread on its website:

http://www.bordergold.com/

The numbers should be similar in the U.S.

etc...

Exiting longs....ADP report tommorow

Fransix, thanks.

bond yields popping today: 30 yr at 4.51, up from 4.43 yesterday.

watch this as an indicator of things to come...part of the TOG

Dave

Returning to check out markets and it looks like we're getting a recovery. That's healthy, imo, as I thought we were a bit oversold.

craig- 5 round trips on QLD->have to think: will they be squeezing the shorts into the close?

Aurator, the volatility in the home builders is remarkable. Just when you think they're about to give up the ghost, they rally back. No doubt this is driven by short covering.

While the fundamentals remain awful, the key is to wait for the inevitable about face.

I reckon we won't get a sustained downward thrust until we either have a major go bankrupt or the first reports on the results of the spring selling season trickle out. That will most certainly result in further writedowns, balance sheet implosion and reduced book value. Both of these events may occur simultaneously.

Careful, though, as nothing in this world is a sure thing and I am sure I am not the only one who expects the home builders to collapse further.

SNDK DOWN 1 PENNY...NICE

Hi,

Really cool move on gold today.

What happened:

- Selling started in the grains;
- Then Oil got hit
- Then Silver

And finally gold.

BUT, as the open interest increased during the day, the SHORTS got sucked in.

Nice.

So I bought more on the dip, and am quite happy with that.

Volatility is here, as predicted.

Hang on and enjoy the roller coaster: it can be a bumpy ride, but the road heads north.

Keep cool!

:-)

2nd..There is always tommorow..dont let the last mile ....drive you nuts

EEMt- you're right...drained but no complaints->was the port down 1.14% an hour ago?...now in the green...last spanish for the day-> hasta la vista, caraista...

I can not believe this
I just came back from meeting and wow?

closed FXP eod today, holding only short position on 30yr bond now...

Dave

vinod- if you're saying you hung onto all your longs ;)

2nd ave: nicely done...now how will the gloom and doom sayers explain the last hour recovery ...down all day...cant have a bullish and bias opinion...dont get guys who can pass up $5 on a skf gain in the last hour...must have buckets of guts and money...and no stops

:)

2nd: Sorry, was really busy trying to surf my way back to shore....sharks were thick...

Traded MSFT a few times.
I'm with Maro...added to small miners, gold.

Nas well below Jan low, S&P went below then rebounded, DJIA didn't get there yet.
Flip a coin, but if you're a DOW theory wag there is a bit more to go. Charts look like Lake Tahoe or Mammoth (for you) Mt. Rainier or Hood to me.
(Add Goofy wahoo-hoo-hoo-hoo here).

I suspect we may need to see DJIA go to Jan low before any possible bounce.

Got killed by MON...not happy there... =:>(
Hopefully we still need food and ag...

craig- short bias is fine with me...closed flat, only positions right now are LDK (small and speculative..are you still holding or is just me flying the plane now) and RRPIX...

BH

I keep 70% cash in my portfolio
and I do not plan to hold My position more than month
Thanks for advise

ALOHA !!

I've heard of GIX!! First Peter Grandich and then AussieOnTop. You're in good company Bill! Is Peter Grandich at PDAC this year? Have you guys seen Lawrence Raulston there or Doug Casey or Paul VanEeden or any of the newsletter types?

I just fielded a call from a silver broker who wanted me to buy 1000 ozs today on the pull back. He first addressed me by my first name as if we were old time buddies. Of course I'd never heard of him or his company "Silver Traders"! After he went through his little talk he sudden started calling me "Miss Calhoun"!! HA!! I waited and then he said, "How about it Miss Calhoun can I put you down for 1000ozs today?" Then I stopped him and asked him, "Who?" Then he said it again "Miss Calhoun"! I then said, "Hey, you need to get your little sales lines down better than that! First rule is remember the gender and then remember the name ..." He then jumped in and said, "Oh yeah, I'm sorry its ... " Then I told him to go peddle his silver trades to someone who cares. Yeah right we'll all pool our vast riches and get a good deal on silver!

My whole point is that as the precious metals prices start to soar along with mining companies we'll get inundated with con artists and crooks pulling scams like back in the dotcom days. If it sounds too good to be true then it probably is ... BUYER BEWARE!

Bill -

Would like to hear more about you rimpressions of Geologix, as I am a shareholder.

Thanks.

2nd
yes I have all for tomorrow including oex option
and because of oex i am in plus

2nd: Stopped out of LDK just under support yesterday. I was willing to give it a shot but only for so long. Probably needed to follow that plan with MON, 'mon. Took too big a bite and it bit me back.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is in for some stiff competition if 12 banks are going to start their own trading exchange.
By the way they need a CEO to run the espeed tech division of the 4Seasons exchange.
Those banks better have some deep pockets upgrading espeeds network servers to compete with CME.
CSCO and ESPD should be good for a bounce tomorrow.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The move to craft a new futures exchange gained ground Tuesday, as reports emerged that Goldman Sachs Group may join 12 other banks in creating an alternative to the market-leading Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Unnamed sources told the Wall Street Journal Tuesday that Goldman is expected to invest millions in the new exchange, tentatively dubbed Four Seasons. The exchange's creation was announced in December and its representatives said trading is slated to start early this year.
Goldman Sachs declined to comment to MarketWatch.
Goldman would join other major banks including Citigroup Inc., Barclays PLC, Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. in funding the new all-electronic exchange.
Analysts responded warmly to the news that the storied investment bank may join the consortium. "Goldman is a formidable addition to Four Seasons due to its heft and its track record of spurring competition," Ed Ditmire, an analyst with Fox-Pitt Kelton, told investors Tuesday.
Lehman Brothers Holdings and Morgan Stanley are also rumored to be gearing up for an announcement this week that each will join the effort to create an alternative to CME's (CME, Trade ) trading platform.
CME was created last summer when the Chicago Board of Trade was merged with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange; it has dominated the U.S. futures market since.
The technology behind the Four Seasons trading platform will be provided by electronic-marketplace tech firm eSpeed Inc. (ESPD, Trade )
The chief operating officer of eSpeed, Paul Saltzman, had been acting as the startup's chief executive, but left the company in January.
CME made headlines early last month when it announced it was in negotiations to energy and metals exchange Nymex Holdings, further expanding its reach into the U.S. trading market.
For now, Four Seasons is putting all its ducks in a row for a formal launch later this quarter.
It is expected to formally name a chief next week as the exchange industry gathers March 12 in Boca Raton, Fla., for the annual Futures Industry Association conference.
"The board has interviewed a number of highly regarded and experienced executives and expects to field a world-class management team," Bill McBride, a spokesman for eSpeed, told MarketWatch Tuesday.

Craig :

RE MON..Try MOS, better looking chart...its on my alpha-beta list...a list of stocks that take off fast during short squeezes, $3 move/hr or so..ditto with EEM, AAPL and GS ( now that it finally broke its 30 min trendline).

Tough to hold ag stocks till commodities adjust..but good one to keep an eye on to punch thru a short squeeze and get out. FAST $$

ALOHA !!

Yes of course it all makes perfect sense.

- South America nearly at War.
- Ben says let the banks fail.
- We've got idiots in line for President.
- The USDX is down.
- Citi is begging.
- Pakistan on the verge.
- US real estate on life support.
- US debt in the tank.
- US FY2009 Budget spending more.
- Unemployment up.
- Buffet says stocks are useless.
- Buffet says the R word is here.
- Commodities and inflation soaring.
- Derivatives detonated.
- Consumers on Prozac.

Yet DOWVILLE is calm and the DOG rallies on CSCO. This whole market revolves around the "One Horse Show" Du Jour! Amazing ...

Of course we all know the FED is goosing until the goose can be goosed no more! Imagine the anger if all those baby-boomers who have been filled with the BS of the 401k diversification strategy for the past 40 years retired to a DOW at 5000 and USDX at .25 and the average home price at $65,000 and a loaf of bread at $30 and gas at $10! Would there ever be some pissed off geezers chasing their brokers with tasers!

Inflation vs. Deflation: Here is what John Mauldin wrote in his newsletter on Feb. 29:

***

A major paper was just released today at 11 a.m. I have not had time to read all of it, but the gist of it is that banks are going to reduce lending by about $2 trillion as a result of their losses. Almost half of that would have gone to consumers and Main Street businesses.

"The resulting withdrawal of credit could knock one to 1.5 percentage points off economic growth, significantly compounding the impact of collapsing home construction and softer consumer spending due to lower home wealth, said the study, presented at a joint academic-Wall Street forum in New York Friday." (Barry Ritholtz)

The paper is titled "Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown," and was written by an all-star cast from Wall Street, the Chicago Fed, and academia. Basically, they show how subprime debt is connected to Main Street business and consumer spending and credit. It is quite worrisome. You can read it at: http://www.brandeis.edu/global/rosenberg_institute/usmpf_2008.pdf.

Again, this is not an inflationary force. It is just the opposite. As I have argued for over a year, the subprime crisis will not be contained. It is going to spread. Notice that AIG announced today they are writing down $11.1 billion on investments related to the subprime markets. This is just the first in what will be a long line of insurance companies that are going to announce large losses. The paper I mentioned above says that 23% of reported exposure to subprime problems is in insurance companies, which is the same as the exposure of US commercial and investment banks. We have seen almost $120 billion in writedowns from them, but a small fraction of that amount from insurance companies. The shoe will drop. Count on it. (I wonder how my Chinese translator deals with US slang like "the shoe will drop.")

Further, if you look at core goods prices, that is everything but food and energy, inflation is 0.2% over the last year. Yes, I know that we have to eat and buy gas, but in the '70s everything was going up.

And that included wages. Today, there is little inflationary pressure coming from wage growth. Until that happens, I doubt the Fed will worry too much about inflation getting away from them. That is not to say that it couldn't happen, but we would have to see wages and goods prices rise to convince the Fed inflation is an issue.

And one last point. Notice in the table above that inflation started picking up in August as food and energy costs rose. In six months, the year over year comparisons will be from a much higher base. Unless you think oil is going to $150 a barrel by the end of the year, energy inflation will be much lower. That does not mean prices will come down, though they may. In fact, I expect them to in the short run.

But if oil is $100 a year from now, then that will mean there was zero inflation in gasoline over the preceding 12 months. Remember, we measure inflation in annual terms.

The same with food. We are having massive dislocations in food availability due to using land to grow corn to make ethanol. These things will sort themselves out, and I expect that food prices will be flat to down from here for the next 12 months.

So, taking the longer view, we have two very serious deflationary forces at work in the economy that could lead to a serious recession if not dealt with, and the likelihood that the inflation numbers that are causing heartburn today will moderate by the end of the year.

At least, that is the bet at the Fed. As I wrote last week, they are very concerned about the credit crisis. They are going to bring rates down, and I think it likely they will go below 2%. They may stay there longer than we now think if I am right about a protracted and slow Muddle Through recovery. I would not be surprised if I am writing about deflation by the end of the year.”

****

Kaimu: I know that you are arguing for the long-term inflation, and I agree with that, but what do you think will happen over the next year? Do you think some inflationary forces will overwhelm the deflationary forces described above? What do others think?

DavidV

ALOHA!!

Wow ... could there be a BIGGER conflict of interest if banks control the futures exchange? I wonder if Goldman and the gang will recommend that their futures clients stay with the CME? Hummmmm?? Thats not "competition" that's thievery on may levels! I mean Goldman already controls the GSCI ... How long before they announce some more "re-weighting" that causes another 2005 style sell-off in commodities?

Here's my solution to all this. All us retail customers, the Mom and Pops pull all our money out of the markets and US banks and let the banks play with themselves as clients, brokers and exchanges! They will have cornered the market! More Anti-Trust please!!! Its all boiling down to the "C" word ... The banks and politicians have 24-7 365 days a year to figure out new ways to fleece the public. The rest of us "word-a-day" types are stuck in 9to5 mode in Sixpack Land just trying to keep our boots dry and kids fed!

This is a BIG red flag! Thanks bigwad ...

Incidentally, I read through the paper “Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown” I mentioned in my previous post, and there is some info there that is worth quoting.

*****

“We conclude from our review that total mortgage credit losses on the currently
outstanding stock of mortgages could total around $400 billion. This is somewhat more
than implied by most vintage-by-vintage analyses, unless these are adjusted aggressively
for structural changes resulting from the decline in home prices, and somewhat below the
losses implied by the ABX indexes (once we adjust the latter for losses on non-subprime
mortgages). We reiterate that the uncertainty around our estimate is undoubtedly very
high.”

“The balance sheet perspective gives new insights into the nature of financial contagion in the modern, market-based financial system. Aggregate liquidity can be understood as the rate of growth of aggregate balance sheets.”

“If greater demand for the asset tends to put upward pressure on its price, then there is the
potential for feedback in which stronger balance sheets triggers greater demand for the
asset, which in turn raises the asset's price and lead to stronger balance sheets. The
mechanism works in reverse in downturns.”

“We estimate that roughly 50%, or $200 billion, of our $400 billion estimate of credit losses on the currently outstanding stock of mortgages will hit U.S. leveraged institutions [that actively manage their balance sheets].”

“Total U.S. equity holdings (including foreign stocks) as of 2007 Q3 stood at $22.7 trillion. However, only a small fraction (less than 1.3%) of this total is held by leveraged players, such as banks and broker dealers. ... Mortgages and asset-backed securities built on mortgage assets are held in large quantities by leveraged institutions – by the broker-dealers themselves at the warehousing stage of the securitization process, by hedge funds specializing in mortgage securities, and by the off-balance sheet vehicles that the banks had set up specifically for the purpose of carrying the mortgage securities and the collateralized debt obligations that have been written on them. According to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Accounts, banks and thrifts held 37% of mortgage debt at the end of the third quarter of 2007. More importantly still, mortgage-related losses of $200 billion for the financial intermediaries would be quite substantial in comparison to their capital.”

****

The above explains why shorting XLF is probably the best way to play the current bear market. But be careful: it will rise fast once the balance sheet adjustment process ends!

DavidV

RUMOR: Allegedly from Bill Fleckenstein via tickerforum.org:

"mark, all the big prime brokers are severing credit lines to hedge funds by radically raises haircuts and repo rates-the game is over!"

Take with a grain of salt but if commodities start declining along with equities, this might be why.

Kaimu,

Lawrence Raulston was BNN "Market Call" on for 1 hr today. 12:30- 13:30

You can see it online at the BNN site

Rob

kaimu
Back in the late seventies and early eighty the propaganda machines were in full force to tell the working people to save...save...save. Grant it you got 4% on a pass port savings account, but guess what?????? Savings and loans went belly up and many people lost their life savings. It's a game...you see!
Today...the people are told to "put money away for retirement." People are! The trouble is institutions are holding retirement account and 401k's ta who laid a chunck. If you were a thieving banker... what better way to grab the retirement money then to start a trading exchange that institutions can put all that retirement money that people have put away for their golden years. By the way, those same banks that are starting up the new 4seasons exchange are some of the same institutions that are holding more then a trillion dollars of the working peoples SAVED retirement money.
Your money is no better off in a HB&B controlled retirement account then it is in a government controlled social security account!
It's a WHITE surrender flag......

"- South America nearly at War.
- Ben says let the banks fail.
- We've got idiots in line for President.
- The USDX is down.
- Citi is begging.
- Pakistan on the verge.
- US real estate on life support.
- US debt in the tank.
- US FY2009 Budget spending more.
- Unemployment up.
- Buffet says stocks are useless.
- Buffet says the R word is here.
- Commodities and inflation soaring.
- Derivatives detonated.
- Consumers on Prozac."

Can you say bull market in the making??

(Sorry, couldn't help myself :)

Regardless of how you personally view the apocalypse and what geek bent you apply to doom, the facts are still the facts.

Gold, for instance closed in backwardation after a day's correction. Silver is still stumbling at the end of the day, but has more volatility on the correction.

At any rate, bullion is supposed to be in a corrective phase until late March, some three weeks' time from now. Its a very telling sign if seasonality does not hold for any particular season, that gold, for instance overruns its seasonal correction.

Silver should be showing resiliency at this stage.

The story is that mining and commoditiy related stocks are affected by investment in ETFs, that they have soaked up almost all of the available investment in the various commodities.

So unless an ETF or commodity-related capital corporation that specializes in those shares, smaller cap companies will probably not move much, because the available capital is going into large fund pools.

The ratio of canadian gold miners vs. gold
is starting to turn. Ive said this before but i think the charts are beggining to show signs of life for the miners.

http://tinyurl.com/29jwur

Now that my prediction of a collapse in XLF following the collapse in ABX indices has worked out well, let me make another prediction about collapse in IYR (equivalently, rise in SRS) following the recent sharp rise in CMBX spreads (the charts are available on the markit.com web site). A recent quote from the Web: “CMBX, an index that tracks the values of bonds backed by commercial mortgages on office buildings, hotels and malls, is sending gloomy signals for commercial real estate investors.”

Basically, the CMBX spreads rose sharply in the past 6 months, then fell somewhat in mid-February, and then rose to the previous highs for AAA rated bonds and made new much higher highs for bonds with a worse credit rating. Some people say that the gloomy picture spelled by ABX and CMBX indices is somewhat overdone, which can explain why IYR could rise somewhat when CMBX spreads stayed in place. But if CMBX spreads keep rising, then IYR should start falling at some point. Given the fact that CMBX spreads made new highs recently on most bonds, those holding IYR shorts should not worry. Only when CMBX spreads start falling, then IYR short holders might consider closing some shorts.

DavidV

Ah Vadym...

The perfect time to run this market higher...

Everyone and their mother now knows how bad things are. It is just toooooo easy in my opinion to take this market lower...

Contrarian says smart money take market higher...

BAsketguy: You my kinda guy !! :)

sure, terrible news combined with lower commodity prices (I can see the future headines - gold down 8% last month, oil down 6% last month), Fed says that inflation is moderating (just look at the headlines) and can lower rates without inflation fears...

The rulemakers are shooting for oil at $200. The push is to liquidate the middle class in one big move, consolidating wealth and power as they go. Once they have secured gains, they will step in to offer the masses their own brand of help.... expect further erosion of rights... personal and financial freedoms, as well as a diminishment of nation-state sovereignty. BUt don't worry; this has been planned for a long time, and it is in your best interests....Aint social engineering grand...hehehehe

craig- trying to understand your rotation into gold/miners...was that an intraday trade or something more...i'm still looking for major pull-backs in both...

i've been getting burned on my overnight holds->your JL quote has been right on (at least recently) - trading day in and day out simply sets up the ultimate trade for someone else (even if that someone else includes you)...i guess there's a quote for every situation, and situations change all the time...

ALOHA !!

Vadym ... Bull markets are in the eye of the beholder. Price the DOW in about anything other than a US Dollar and you'll see the real "bull"! At some point reality sets in and all the contrarian games end! Contrarianism is a product of manipulated markets by design. Ever watch a school of fish?

David ... Q&A time!
Q: Why is it that we have not yet seen wage inflation take off in the USA?

A: Its the Chindia wage subsidy. In exchange for cheap non-union Chinese labor the US has dismantled its Middle Class unionized factory worker(wage inflation). Anyone willing to dispute this has to convince me the US trade imblances with China(our largest trading partner)is not proof of lost jobs. Any survey of WalMart products would prove that!! About 95% of WalMart products are "Made in Asia" except the non-union salespeople!

If China ever unpegs its currency to the US Dollar all that pent up inflation will hit the US shores like a tsunami! Right now China and India are like sponges sopping up US monetary inflation. What the USA ends up with are higher unemployment and welfare liabilities. Once again the US Taxpayer underwrites US Corporate welfare in exchange for corporate profit and overpriced CEO wages ... Yeah CEO wages are highly inflationary!

I have been studying the Bush FY2009 Budget. Tax revenues from individual payroll taxes and retirees will increase a combined 44% while US corporations tax revenues will only increase 2.5% by 2013. Every year I study the budget US corporate tax liabilities decrease. This is the lowest increase I have ever seen and its just in time since this will be the last year Bush will be in office before the other part of the two party aristocracy takes over ... the Dems! Of course the Dems will not be any different ... NO CHANGE Barack! The corporations will always pay less taxes. They own you and Oprah! Thats what I predict!

Q: Why are bank write downs indicative of shrinking money supply and by extrapolation deflationary?

A: They are not! While AIG writes down $11bil and other banks write down a combined $200bil since August of 2007 the M3B money supply has increased by $2.3trilUSD. Do you know what a measley $200bil is compared to $2.3tril? Why do these guys totally disconnect the US money supply from their analysis of the economy based on specific deflationary events. Its like saying when it is midnight in NYC its midnight all over the World! Wrong ... Go back to the definition of monetary inflation which begets price inflation. You know buggy whip manufaturing has been in in a deflationary spiral for nearly eighty years now! Whats the difference between buggy whips and the IMF? Buggy whips have value! Think of banks as a manufacturer like any manufacturer of a product. To make a profit the bank's product must be in demand and be sold for more than it costs the bank. I submit to you a bank who sells US Dollar debt denominated derivatives has an uphill battle to make a profit because demand is falling off a cliff. Debt and the US Dollar and therefore the USSA Empire are in decline. This all would change for the better on a dime if we got rid of the FED and the IRS and sperated bank from State. In other words, clean house on Goldman Sachs! When do we have a Congressional hearing on the obscene profits of Goldman Sachs? I mean Exxon actually has a "real" product that the entire World needs, even Goldman employees need Exxon products. What does Goldman have that the entire World needs ... fraud? Fire Paulson!

There's your answer. Over the next year I predict huge increases in US money supply ... the M3B.

The "C" word cometh!

kaimu- what's the "C" word?

crash?

Kaimu: thanks for the explanation about why the US wages not inflating -- I like it. :) As for the M3 increasing, here is what Greenspan wrote in his paper "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," in the words of (I think) John Mauldin: "Further, he points out that the traditional measures of money stock are becoming increasingly meaningless. The obsession with M-2 or M-3 makes for good newsletter copy, but what do such broad aggregates mean in a world where new forms of money (SWAPs, derivatives, mortgages bonds, etc) appear every day? The implication that the old linear relationships between money supply (as measured by some arbitrary and outdated statistic like M-2) and inflation may no longer be valid."

What can you say about that?

DavidV

kaimu... take it easy, that was a joke. Smiley attached, too.

On a little more serious note though: market rarely goes in the direction that is THAT obvious and THAT accepted by "everyone and their mother" as basketguy put it. The nature of the market is to go with as few on board as possible, right? In this light, I don't see contrarianism as a product of manipulation; it's rather a product of the very nature of the markets based on a simple equation: if majority is right and market goes in their direction, who do they take the money from? For the market to exist, majority MUST be wrong - and when I say wrong, I mean wrong on the market direction at the moment, not on fundamentals. In this sense fundamentals is not a tool for timing.

Of course the reality will set in as you say - but the timing will be defined by the shift in bets. When enough participants lose faith (or solvency) and give up, or even change their bets to opposite - that's the moment. And as a trader, the timing is what I am interested in the most.

Just my approach.

inflation is not all bad for those of us with fixed obligations...eg, if you have a fixed rate 15- or 30-year mortgage on one or more properties, accelerating inflation allows you to discount those payments at increasingly higher interest rates and lower the present value of the debt...a declining dollar can also help if you use investments denominated in (appreciating) foreign currencies to make payments...

Hey everybody,
It's been a while since I posted but I wanted to throw out there that the current whipsaw trading environment has set up many profitable trades via puts, straddles and vertical spreads in my portfolio.

Been making good money selling SLW puts and SLW calls against my long position.

Today I sold the following puts:
MU 2010 Jan $5 Puts Executed @ $1.1

INTC Jan 2010 Jan $20 Puts Executed @ $4.25

To me this is collecting free money. Intel may get below $15.75 then again it may not. And MU below $3.90 - I'll take my chances.

Good luck to all.

cb- those appear to be pretty good bets, but i'm trying to understand the other side of the trade...there is no sale without a buyer, and if we assume options players are relatively sophisticated, then it seems they're pricing in good odds of some serious downside before 2010...

2nd: I can't say I have anymore info than you do, except that I'd be a fool to trade against you! If I had listened to your tech rotation I might have done better today, MSFT, WMT, FXF were my only winners today. MON ate my lunch (aside from previous gains) and I stopped out to preserve capital/money management/stop bleeding.

I added/scaled a little more into GLD because the financial/bank situation is so dire that I don't think the Fed has any choice but to lower the fed and discount window rates drastically and add liquidity come hell or high water. I sold my previous 1/2 position yesterday suspecting a pullback before we hit $1000, adding some today when it had pulled back 2+%. I can allocate $60,000 in the investment acct. to GLD/SLV ($100,000 to total gold/silver/miners)and have only a small portion now...about 25%, waiting for a *possible* larger move down which no one can guarantee. I'm UW about $500 ignoring my previous gains taken.
This is aside from physical which isn't very liquid compared to GLD/SLV as I'm sure we all understand.

WGW added at 3.68/3.70 which has previously been/close to support and GSS starting at 3.93 down to 3.90 which is the recent low/support. Small positions on both but again, no guarantees of major pullback where I would add.

I wasn't as savvy with GFI which I usually nail, but again, small bite to which I would add to in a larger pullback. It did come back to me later where I reduced my exposure by 1/2 of what I had as it moves more than the other two.

My take at this point is that we see the Jan lows (11,700-11,800) which triggers a ST oversold bounce or some intervention by the can kickers to keep this thing afloat until Ben drops more currency either at the regular meeting or before, or we get another rumor from CNBC/John Chambers/IBM/who the heck knows....like we saw today/previously. Every time we start to correct something happens to save the bacon. A rumor put?

To paraphrase a pretty smart guy....
Trade strategically on Fundamentals/tactically on technical analysis.

The fundamental story is a $0.52 to $0.68 $USD.
Tactically is harder to be precise about so I'm moving incrementally as we get around 12,000.

I'm definitely open to suggestions/criticism/help?

link to new ETF products UGA (gasoline prices), DGP (2x gold), and DZZ (2x inverse gold):

http://tinyurl.com/2n99jp

if you were looking for to-the-point descriptions of the effect of contango and backwardation on USO, UNG, and UGA- excerpt:

"Caution: These funds buy futures contracts -- not the actual product. They may not accurately track the price of the underlying asset due to contango and backwardation.

Contango occurs when the price for future delivery of the commodity is higher than the spot price. So traders have to buy the next month's contract at a higher price and sell the current month's at a lower price, thus losing money. Backwardation is the opposite."

Going intermediate long UYG @ 30.65. Logic and every instinct I have says this is a terrible move. RSI suggests otherwise.

craig- LOL- i don't know about not trading against me...you would have done well the past few days doing just that...i could say i just get ahead of myself, but that would just be an excuse for bad timing...and timing is everything...

man, sometimes i think if we'd just opened bank accounts denominated in yen/euro/CDN a few years ago, we could pay off the mortgage...

Someone wrote about the 70's/80's and banks trying to talk everyone into increasing savings in those days. As some of may recall, interest rates were upwards of 20% which was indicative of rampant inflation/pulling of liquidity, so banks were in the same type of situation...IE: lacking capital/needing to recapitalize, or they had nothing to loan...no business.

Back then Pres. Ford was giving out big tax credits/breaks if you put so much in the bank to get them some liquidity as the fed (Volcker) was NOT either Goodyear Greenspan or Sykorsky Ben and was sponging liquidity from the system to "Whip Inflation Now". Those days are ahead after the Bernanke flood.

Thus the relative safety of the fundamental gold/silver story regardless of temporary pullbacks. Again, this is JMO.

2nd,
My obsevation is that most of my option trades sit open until real panic sets in. I can only attribute it to some algorithm kicking in.

At some point during market bloodbath's the most savy longer term investors are buying (Warren Buffet, David Swensen, etc). So, given the company fundamentals of MU and INTC, I am willing to pay $3.90 and $15.75 per share and wait out the profitable trade.

Maybe some of the pros who read the blog can help me understand the following response to an inquiry I opened with E*trade...

****************
Thank you for your inquiry into your open order for XXXXX in your brokerage account xxxx-XXXX. I apologize if this has caused any inconvenience. Please note that your limit order will fill if there are shares to accommodate the order. If there are orders smaller than yours, they will be filled first. The volume traded today was 262,597. In researching the trades for today, 250,000 shares were filled at $.0002, and 12,597 shares were filled at $.0001. You are able to view time in sales information online with Power E*TRADE Pro. Log into Power E*TRADE Pro and click on the Time in Sales icon in the left column.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I saw that over 260,000 shares of XXXXX traded today at .0002 and I have an open order for 1,000,000 shares at .0005.

Why weren't the 260,000+ shares sold to me?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shouldn't the answer be that this was a privately arranged trade? My open order is not all or nothing so anything that trades in the market should go to the higher bidder (in this case me). Am I out to lunch on this?

Thanks Bill. Its hard to figure out why the stock is not higher. I suppose it is suffering with the rest of the juniors even though it has a deposit. The only question is how big it is.

2nd: Other than the chips I don't think your MSFT was bad. The 52 wk low was 26.60, how wrong were you yesterday? It closed at what, $27.59 today? Opened at $26.80-26.90? I was in yesterday with a 26.93 basis.

I suspect you were close to that although I don't have specifics..... LOL!

craig- i buy all of it...simply saying that even in the midst of a strong uptrend gold and miners have severe corrections, and if you're buying on day one of a pullback you may need quick reflexes...(or be maromatics LOL)...

craig- re tech- let's not forget i bailed on all of it at 142p today (which undoubtedly marked the bottom)...only to re-enter all of it at 3p when i noticed the buy programs kicking in (+ pressed the bet with QLD a few minutes later)...so to be honest, i was wrong, but ended up dodging (another) bullet...

Options question

When I place a bid higher than the current bid, at first only my bid appears but a split second later other bids join mine. Are these automated programs at work?

cb
Your order didn't get filled because you have a guardian angle sitting on your shoulder!
Even if you do buy 1,000,000 shares of abc at .0001 or what ever sub penny price you get filled at....chances are you'll never sell the crap on a limit order with out taking a beating.
Look up at your guardian angel, name her something comforting, and then thank her sincerely. She just saved you some hard earned money and didn't even ask you for anything in return.

SteveC- great minds think alike ;)

craig- btw, i'm also completely out of technology right now...and dammit, thinking about shorting commodities/metals...

cb
That's angel not angle!

2nd: I traded MSFT and got back in around $27 and got flat on the Chambers rumor/BS/run-up.
Apparently I can SEE TA with MSFT and am blind with MON. Time for a opthalmologist appt.!

A person could do a lot worse than to listen to Maromatics......hard to argue with his calls lately. I can't say I was ignoring his posts today...

I also wasn't ignoring JL's missive......the hard part is sitting....

Hi bigwad,
Point taken but the $500 I am spending is buying me a chunk of a bankrupt public company shell. A shell that could be picked up by anyone, including myself or a startup to form a public corporation.
cb

CB: You could just buy $500 of C, that new Visa IPO or about any U.S. bank and have a bankrupt public co. shell! LOL!

Just arrived back from the East Coast expecting to find SNDK shares “put” to me, but no, not yet. Missed most of the action the past two days and catching up.

Had a great lunch at Legal Seafood on Monday but vinod was a no show. There were no messages, so lunched with a younger woman who’s my better half ;)

Craig, sorry to hear about MON. Think a lot of hedge funds among others have or had positions . . popular “hot” play . . saw earlier reference to hedge fund liquidation by maromatics . . . . FWIW, Barron’s had article citing big P/E on MON (what else is new?) compared to SYT which the article preferred. . . SYT Swiss stock I’ve traded in the past, but not recently. (Disclosure: I did sell Apr 90 puts on MON back in Jan.)

Lastly, driving the highway past Westport today at a pretty good clip on the way to Providence and couldn’t help but think there’s a guy at the library computer there catching up on PDAC and the Caristas! LOL!

Time to hit the sack. Good night!

CB re option trades at March 4, 2008 10:12 PM

I'm trying to get into this option strategy stuff a little more these days, I can see the concept of selling puts and calls against your long position at the appropriate short term swings, probably short term 1 or 2 month out, time erosion wipes out your obligation to supply the stock and you keep the premium and do it again.

But I don't understand the longer term put selling, ie INTC 2010 Jan $20 puts at $4.25, like free money?. Yes great to keep that premium but I assume you're selling these naked, thus you gotta tie up principle or margin for almost 2 years and you never know when you might get exercised. Now say INTC goes to $25 in a couple of months, you could by back and close out for say $2 and net $2.25 or hang on and hope the options expire.

Now say INTC goes to $18 in a couple of months, puts will be say $6 or about $2 loss to close it out. If it goes to $15.75 and you get exercised at $20 strike, then you can just turn around and sell it at break even less commissions. But say it goes to $13 and still not exercised, then you're at $2.75 a share loss if exercised and probably more like $10 to close the puts ($6 loss).

I've asked this question in the past and usually get an answer like I'm happy to own it at $15.75 and it just ain't gonna go below that. But I'm thinking about those guys who sold the 2010 Jan $35 now $15 UW, 260 contracts still open, guess they're hoping they don't get exercised. Or thinking they bought their own protective puts at some point so maybe their loss is limited to only $5 per share.

In summary I'm just trying to figure out how and when you would get out of this trade if it started to go bad. I know my wife says I'm negative, she always plans for the best and ignores all else, I try to plan for somewhere between highly probable and the worst case, that way I'm usually happy and above breakeven 75% of the time.

thanks in advance for any feedback

Rising precious metals prices can have a downside (90-year-old hospital patient had one platinum, two gold rings stolen).

http://tinyurl.com/yqxeex

Those of you who own bullion, numismatics, etc. would be wise not to publicize the fact to co-workers, friends or acquaintances. Word gets around. As public consciousness of the value of precious metals rises, B&E artists will be quick to target the homes of those suspected of owning same, regardless of where the items may be stored.

MR. HUNTER

CONGRADULATIONS ON YOUR 08 GOALS. I AM NEW HERE AND WOULD LIKE TO BE POINTED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION IN THE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT. I HEAR EVERYONE TALKING ABOUT HOW A COMPILATION OF MOVING AVERAGES OVER TIME CAN SHOW WHICH WAY A STOCK IS STARTING TO MOVE AS WELL AS WEAKNESSES AND STRENGTHS. WOULD BE ABLIDGED IF YOU OR ANYONE HAS INPUT ON THIS. I NEED TO START GETTING READY FOR THE TRADE OF THE GENERATION.

Quasi,
First let me say that I am as far from a Trader Wizard as you will find so you don't want to follow my logic but I will share it with you nonetheless.

OptionOracle can probably better explain a wise trade with regards to leaps. I don't know if he is still lurking around here but he always has good option trading knowledge to share.

I have been closing all my leaps when the market goes nutty upward for no other reason than fed or CNBC pumping OR the stock has been trading below the put for an extended period of time (more than two months) with no sign of a positive trend.

In my opinion, these leaps are low risk trades (when purchased during major down days) that will turn profitable in the short term if the market goes up fast and furious.

Keep in mind that I am only trading these leaps with high quality liquid companies like SBUX, SNDK, INTC, MU, ADM, HD OR smaller companies that I am familiar with like WOR.

RE: SLW
I only sell calls 1 to 2 months out. This stock has made me money hand over fist for 2 years now. It is always put to me, then I sell calls eventually it gets called away for a nice profit. Then I start the cycle over again after the next basing or takedown, whichever comes first.

excavatorsb ,You seem to be YELLING. Are you? re the macd question, have you read StockCharts Chart school? I find it invaluable to make clear things I read here. Also The Knight Report has a nightly podcast by Brian Shannon of AlphaTrends that consistently describes the peril in "fighting the trend" which I take as a price is not going higher if the 10,20,50, and 200 day averages are going down.
Bill shares a differing approach based on RSI-relative strength using 3 different time frames. One of the contributors here-Korvus, has developed and shared a RSI application that will tell you the rsi value of any stock or string of symbols. You can find that at http://tiny.pl/lzz2
I've drifted off topic but I hope that helps
peace
Gray

ALOHA !!

Vadym ... I took it as sarcasticality!!

David ... What a total load of bull! In other words if you think of the USA as a corporation then "constant dilution" does not matter? What would you do with CSCO stock if Chambers announced he was no longer going to inform shareholders how many shares were outstanding? Why would that be against the law yet Greenspan discontinuing the M3 is not against the law? Then they sluff it off as "meaningless"! That should be a big red flag right there. Do and think the opposite when a monetary authority makes such statements. I wouldn't want you to know that I created $2.3trilUSD out of thin air over the past seven months either if I were Greenspan ... QUESTION AUTHORITY!!

Since when is a SWAP money? HA!! Only the US Treasury can issue money and by definition money is a store of value. By Constitutional definition and Austrian Economics there is no real money in circulation in America or the World any more. What Wall Street issues is debt and fraud. That is not money! Anyone that tries to convince you SWAPS and mortgage bonds are money is an idiot! Those are all nothing more than debt! A US dollar is debt. All fiat is debt, especially when they are marked-to-market in the case of derivatives. The more debt you mark-to-market the larger the money supply grows. In FIATLAND debt is called "wealth"! The American Dream has been built on fraud. Debt is not wealth! What we have in America is a huge market that constantly trades "liabilities"! Isn't that what debt is? Does anyone here actually believe debt is an asset?

2nd ... The "C" word is C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E !! Thats when "real wealth" is restored and debt once again is shunned. Without "confidence" the US Dollar, the US Banks as well as the US government are nothing more than the promises they are now. Your wallet is full of "promises to pay" and nothing more!

Bill has it dead right about CAPITAL MARKETS AND SOCIAL EQUITY ... The playing field is anything but fair, especially monetarily speaking!

ALOHA !!

I love these guys!! RON PAUL is a grassroots community unto itself. A RON PAUL supporters hangout here near where I live is nicknamed "The Shire"! HA!! RON PAUL may not ever be President but the legacy and the movement will live on with us anti-BIG GOVERNMENT hobbits.

Look at these directions I got today for a meeting on Sunday.

READ ON:
From Pahoa go to Kalapana Kaimu, about 10 mi, just past church on left get in left turn lane. Turn left then jog right and continue to stop sign, Turn left and go about 3 mi, to Kehena. About 1/2 mi past Kehena turn left on Oliana and go 1 block to Puna Kai and turn right then go 1 block to Kipuka st. and turn left to 1st house on left. 12-147 Kipuka st. green house with Ron Paul sign in front. park on street. If you come to a sign Seaview, you went past oliana so turn around and pay more attention this time!!! aaron 965-XXXX

Charlie, the organizer(Frodo)

ALOHA !!

I was just browsing stock prices and I typed in "GM". Can anyone explain why this company is still in business, much less trading at $23USD per share when it has an EPS of -$76.34 ... YES NEGATIVE SEVENTY SIX!!!. Then how is it GM can afford to pay a 4.3% dividend when they have no profit and huge debt? Is there anything wrong with that picture? Who is propping this loser up?

By comparison Ford-F has a share price of $6USD and pays no dividend and has a EPS of -$1.34.

What gives with GM shareholders? I would never hold a stock with a -$76.34 EPS. That's 100% worse than the worst junior explorer! How much more broke can a company get?

Bond Failures Approach 70%, Show No Sign of Easing

http://tinyurl.com/yucssk

No Bear Yet? Average Stock Already Down 30%

http://tinyurl.com/ywxm5r

fyi on DBA

http://tinyurl.com/2zj7tc

If FXI breaks down and closes below 140 look out below! Looking at FXP trade setup.

"Vadym ... I took it as sarcasticality!!"

Oh not even close. Internet communication being void of face expression, voice and body language can come across in unintended way.

It's just that you gave such perfect compliation of all the dark clouds that it was impossible to refrain from "bull market" comment. In insane market, what is better way to preserve one's sanity than humor :)

plenty of triangle breakouts yesterday on the charts - but most managed to return and close in their respective triangle - another late afternoon market reversal to help the cause...