(WIR#5 (Feb 2) I still hold the opinion that the equity market Bear trend exists and that any intermediate and short-term rallies are counter-trend. Despite several trillion dollars of lost wealth in the equity market since October, the primary Bear is just half over. There are too many Bulls and too much hope for the condition referred to as capitulation to (have already happened).

This week, all equity indexes were down significantly, from 3- to 5-pct or more, and the economic reports out of the US and elsewhere were most alarming. The G-7 finance ministers and central bankers who met in Tokyo yesterday (Saturday) must have been on the edge of their seats.

As Econoday opined in this week’s report,

”Investors are looking to avert risk and for a safe haven in which to invest. In times of economic uncertainty, it is normal that asset allocation flows shift out of the equity and credit markets and into government debt.”

The woes are more than economic weakness. With regard to money and banking, there are different issues at the forefront: (i) the G-7 hopes to see China continue to strengthen the Yuan against all currencies, not just the USD, (ii) the ECB thinks the Euro is too strong and wants it down, and (iii) banks still need to come clean as to their unrealized trading losses, and settle the mountain of litigation that is building.

I think by now most people see that the global banks and investors of real estate and securitized debt that is collateralized by real estate are in a death spiral as worthless assets on their books are being written off in the trillions of dollars. Liquidity in the banking system is drying up, and the credit ring amongst banks and other lenders is being broken (although the public is not being told that), while the major players with the most at stake are stepping in to buy out the ones that have broken down. Now the financial guarantor companies that propped up the whole financial system that went berserk over the past couple years (as I and others like Nouriel Roubini shouted unheeded warnings) are also failing. Rating agencies are being sued. Banks and other securitizers of worthless so-called asset-backed paper are also all being sued. Even governments and their agencies are suing.

What an incredible mess.

Now, the people who caused this mess, and their shameless supporters, are stooping to call people who merely reported it, names like Chicken Little and Goldilocks Basher.

The perpetrators of our dysfunctional society would gladly have you and I go down the tubes with them. Sorry, but I have chosen a different life to lead, one that has taken the high road where independence, objectivity, transparency and fairness in capital markets are the bricks under my feet. And when I see so-called leaders and “personalities” trying to crack that foundation, I scream bloody murder.

I hope you join me because this Bear market will be a bloodbath before it’s over. It will be over when the perpetrators and interventionists capitulate.

In the meantime they continue sticking more chewing gum into the holes in the dike. So I am anticipating one more attack against the inflation-sensitive energy and basic materials sectors – things like higher margins required by commodity exchanges, and more selling of government holdings of oil and gold reserves, and the like.

I won’t even be surprised at this point to see the confiscation of physical gold. It’s been done before by the US Government. Of course, before that happens, you can be sure that the movers and shakers who pushed the new laws into effect would have moved their gold to safe-havens.

With respect to the recent huge move in precious metals, I believe the $USD will continue strengthen, which will stop the parabolic rise this week in Platinum, (to a lesser extent in) Palladium, and the upward spike in Copper, Silver and Gold. Friday was a counter-trend move, I believe.

The Europeans clearly want to see a weaker Euro. This statement came out of the G-7 meeting in Tokyo this weekend.

European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the euro's broad trade-weighted value "has reached a level we can consider is above equilibrium level."

At the meeting, the delegates approved the sale of Gold by the International Monetary Fund, starting April.

While the entire financial world seems to be falling apart, traders must be careful not to fall into a mindset of excessive bearishness (or, at times, bullishness for that matter). One reason is that capital market prices lead the economic data by several months, and we don’t want to miss the trend and cycle reversals.

But we also don’t suffer credulity syndrome either, so we study the econ data to explain what has been happening to market prices. Not only are we looking for confirmations, but anomalous data as well.

There are clues in the data that we need to keep looking for.

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Global Economics Review

Econoday International Report (Feb 8). Econoday reported:

“The spate of negative numbers regarding the U.S. economy (and those overseas) interspersed with the occasional positive number has more forecasters believing that the U.S. is on the cusp of a recession rather than a period of slow growth. (A recession is commonly defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth). Slow growth can be defined as below trend growth — and in the U.S. that means anything below an annualized rate of 2.7 percent and in the UK, under about 2.5 percent on the year…market participants look for new approaches to stem global financial turmoil emanating from the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis.

Whether the case is negative or very slow real economic growth, the fact is that global inflation is now in the 3- and 4-pct range by even the most positively-biased calculations, so investment returns from dividends and short-term debt instruments and money market funds is clearly negative. Moreover, as equity prices are falling, the total returns from most stocks are negative.

In summary, wealth is being destroyed by the trillions, month after month. One of the reasons is that the economy is in a downswing.

It is important to review the following reports published this past week on the US economy that continues to worsen. The positive news is now infrequent.

The US Factory Orders data for December.

The very troubling US Non-Manufacturing Business Activity data for January.

The weekly report for US same-store sales of general merchandise in January.

The report on US productivity and costs for 4Q07.

The weekly US oil inventory report, showing an inventory build as purchases are down.

The US Chain Store Sales Report.

The Bank of England rate cut on Thursday as required by a slowing economy.

The inflation concern-based decision by the ECB not to cut rates.

The report of growing weekly unemployment claims in the US, showing a worsening labor market.

The December US pending sales report for existing homes, which is a prelude to worsening housing markets.

The US wholesale inventories report, showing alarming increase in inventory as products sit on shelves.

So much for last week. Let’s look ahead.

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Along with many weekly reports, the big three monthly reports to come next week are as follows:

US Consumer Spending for January, which covers 2/3 of the GDP.

US Industrial Production for January, which accounts for 20-pct of the US GDP.

US International Trade Balance (exports minus imports) for December, which shows how much consumer and industrial capital is flowing out of the US every month.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

THIS WEEK closed with 1 GREEN industry (mining) and 18 RED’s, compared to last week's 3 green and 4 Red.

Last week, all 31 major industries rose in price (from 1.94% for computer software/services to 9.97% for specialty retail.).

This week, all industries FELL, (from -1.79% for energy to -7.53% for materials and construction).

13 Cara100's were GREEN and 52 were RED. (Last week's count was 33 to 30.)

Ticker	Name	Score -5wks	Score -4wks	Score -3wks	Score -2wks	Score -1wks	Score -0wks
ABB	ABB Ltd.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
ABV	COMP DE BEBA AM ADS	+2	+2	-2	-2	+2	+2
ABX	Barrick Gold Corp.	+2	+2	+0	+2	+2	+0
ADBE	Adobe Systems Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
AET	Aetna Inc.	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
AMAT	Applied Materials Inc.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+2	+0
ATVI	Activision Inc.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
BA	Boeing Co.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
BBBY	Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2	+0
BBD	Banco Bradesco S.A.	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
BC	Brunswick Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2	+0
BDK	Black & Decker Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0
BHP	BHP Billiton Ltd.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2	-2
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
CCJ	Cameco Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
CCL	Carnival Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2	-2
CEO	CNOOC Ltd.	+0	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
CHA	China Telecom Corp. Ltd.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
CHL	China Mobile Limited	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
CHRW	CH Robinson Worldwide Inc.	+0	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2
COST	Costco Wholesale Corp.	+0	+0	-2	-2	+2	-2
CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
CTSH	Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
CVX	Chevron Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
DB	Deutsche Bank AG	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
DELL	Dell Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
DEO	Diageo plc	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
DIS	Walt Disney Co.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
DOW	Dow Chemical Co.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2	+0
DNA	Genentech Inc.	-2	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0
ECA	EnCana Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	+2	+2
ERJ	EMBRAER - Empresa Brasileira de Aeron�utica S.A.	+2	+2	-2	-2	+0	-2
ERTS	Electronic Arts Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
EXC	Exelon Corp.	+0	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
GE	General Electric Co.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
GFI	Gold Fields Ltd.	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
GG	Goldcorp Inc.	+2	+2	+0	+2	+0	+0
GGB	Gerdau S.A.	+2	+2	-2	-2	+0	-2
GOL	GOL Linhas A�reas Inteligentes S.A.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
GOOG	Google Inc.	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
GRMN	Garmin Ltd.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
GS	Goldman Sachs Group Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2	-2
GSK	Glaxosmithkline plc	-2	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
HBC	HSBC HLDGS PLC ADS	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
HDB	HDFC Bank Ltd.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
IBKR	Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
IBN	ICICI Bank Ltd.	+0	+2	+0	+0	+0	-2
IMO	Imperial Oil Ltd.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2
INFY	Infosys Technologies Ltd.	+0	+0	-2	-2	+2	+0
INTC	Intel Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
JCP	J. C. Penney Company, Inc	+0	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2
JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
KB	Kookmin Bank	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
KO	Coca-Cola Co.	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
KSS	Kohl's Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0
LEH	Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2	-2
LLTC	Linear Technology Corp.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
MBT	Mobile Telesystems OJSC	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
MFC	Manulife Financial Corporation	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
MICC	Millicom International Cellular SA	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2	-2
NKE	Nike Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2	+0
NOK	Nokia Corp.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2	-2
NTES	Netease.com Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
NUE	Nucor Corp.	+0	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2
ORCL	Oracle Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
OXPS	optionsXpress Holdings, Inc.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
PAYX	Paychex Inc.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0
PBR	PETROLEO BRASILEIRO	+2	+0	-2	+0	+2	+0
PDA	Perdigao S.A.	+0	+2	-2	-2	+0	-2
PG	Procter & Gamble Co.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
PTR	PetroChina Co. Ltd.	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
QCOM	QUALCOMM Inc.	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2	+2
RIO	COMPANHIA VALE ADS	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2	+0
RIMM	Research In Motion Ltd.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
RY	Royal Bank of Canada	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2
SBUX	Starbucks Corp.	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
SLW	Silver Wheaton Corp.	+2	+0	-2	+0	-2	-2
SNDK	SanDisk Corp.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
STO	StatoilHydro ASA	+2	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2
SU	Suncor Energy Inc.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
SWK	Stanley Works	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	+0
TCK	Teck Cominco Ltd.	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0
TEF	Telefonica SA	+0	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
TGP	Teekay LNG Partners LP.	+0	+2	+0	-2	+0	+2
TGT	Target Corp.	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	+0
TM	Toyota Motor Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2
TOT	Total SA	+2	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
TS	Tenaris SA	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
TT	Trane Inc	+2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
UBS	UBS AG	+0	+0	-2	-2	+0	-2
UTX	United Technologies Corp.	+2	-2	-2	+0	+2	-2
VCP	Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2	+2
VIP	Vimpel-Communications	+2	+0	-2	-2	+0	-2
WAG	Walgreen Co.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0
WBK	Westpac Banking Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2	-2
WFMI	Whole Foods Market Inc.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2	+0
WHR	Whirlpool Corp.	+0	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2
WMT	Wal-Mart Stores Inc.	-2	+2	+0	+0	+2	+0
XOM	Exxon Mobil Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
YHOO	Yahoo! Inc.	-2	+0	-2	-2	+2	+2
Summary:	(+2/-2/other)	24/42/33	18/51/30	0/80/19	3/69/27	33/31/35	14/54/31
Net:	(+2)-(-2)	-18	-33	-80	-66	+2	-40

­All the major US stock indices fell from neutral to RED. The Bombay, Shanghai, and Hong Kong and Tokyo indices were also RED. The US$ and CRB indices closed GREEN.

GOLD stocks stayed neutral, while SILVER stocks fell from neutral to RED.

BOTTOM LINE: Last week, after the 2nd cut, the "net green" count (greens minus reds) moved from -25 to -1. This week, the count slid back to -17.

Jock

NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week, for the Dow 30 stocks, only 2 were up (DIS and MCD) and 28 down. The DJIA lost -4.4 pct this week, putting the blue-chip stocks down by -8.2 pct YTD. I saw it coming and advised selling into strength.

A week ago, following another rally, I wrote, “The Interventionists are pumping hard to put life back into a dead Bull. But, traders are nervous, and I still believe that the Bear lives. The big movers were the Financials (C up +11.5 pct W/W and +19.0 pct over 2 weeks!!) (JPM up +10.6 pct W/W and +20.5 pct over 2 weeks!!) (But) Even with all the help from their friends in Washington, these banks did not solve their problems.”

This week the biggest losers in the Dow 30 were banks and companies that have a huge financial component: C -12.3 pct, GM -11.0 pct, AXP -9.3 pct, JPM -9.2 pct, AIG -9.1 pct and, after a few others, GE -6.4 pct. These are humungous hits in a single week, and clearly are correcting the recent gains in the market, which had been mostly short squeezes.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

A week ago I wrote: “Some of the moves this week were incredible (SNDK up +8.3 pct on Friday), and corresponded with our recent Buy Alerts. However, I think that the Semi-conductors had one good day – Friday.”

This week, the Nasdaq Composite dropped -4.4 pct, putting the index down -13.1 pct YTD. The semi-conductors, like I warned, were hammered. SMH dropped -6.91 pct W/W, and Intel (INTC) lost -6.9 pct.

Several weeks ago I wrote in this space, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY” I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other, and you know which way I was indicating.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

A week ago, the scoreboard read ten up and zero down. This week was the reverse. More to come.

A week ago, the best performer was Financials (“again”) and this week the Financials (XLF) plunged -8.3 pct. UBS -12.4 pct, C -12.3 pct, CS -11.3 pct, MER -10.6 pct, MS -10.5 pct, GS -10.0 pct, JPM -9.2 pct and LEH -9.0 pct, which are most of the biggest ones in the club I call Humungous Bank & Broker, were smashed.

A week ago on the back of that huge rally in the Financials, I wrote, “Volatility means traders must use prudence as in a Bear market, there are many confounding whip-saws.”

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	69.85	1.01	1.47%	-2.10%	1.67%	-8.73%	-12.14%	-7.91%	0.72%	19.14%
XLP	26.83	-0.28	-1.03%	-2.33%	0.49%	-6.90%	-5.49%	-4.69%	-3.32%	1.02%
IYH	66.16	-0.80	-1.19%	-2.53%	0.29%	-9.10%	-5.62%	-5.42%	-4.43%	-3.87%
XLB	39.83	0.89	2.29%	-2.66%	3.62%	-1.39%	-3.56%	-6.06%	-0.82%	8.32%
XLU	38.99	-0.31	-0.79%	-3.11%	2.12%	-10.45%	-7.37%	-7.74%	-3.56%	2.85%
XLY	31.44	-0.24	-0.76%	-4.15%	1.88%	1.42%	-2.36%	-9.39%	-16.34%	-21.06%
XLI	36.17	-0.27	-0.74%	-4.44%	1.03%	-2.40%	-6.08%	-8.91%	-9.69%	0.50%
IYZ	24.93	-0.27	-1.07%	-6.14%	-0.20%	-11.38%	-14.54%	-18.10%	-24.02%	-19.08%
SMH	28.15	0.14	0.50%	-6.91%	0.46%	-2.32%	-10.24%	-14.83%	-26.31%	-18.07%
XLF	27.12	-0.54	-1.95%	-8.25%	-0.22%	-0.95%	-4.37%	-10.70%	-21.96%	-27.70%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE), did not get pumped up by Crude Oil contracts that jumped +2.81/bbl. In fact, as a continuation from the previous Friday when XOM and CVX pulled back, which I said was a warning.

(last week) A week ago, XOM on Friday dropped -2.40 pct. This Friday XOM dropped as well, and so did CVX. Yes, XLE was up +2.51 pct on Friday, but those Big Oil stocks dropped Friday. Warning.

Traders need to be watching the tells.

XLE this week dropped -2.10 pct, and the gain on Friday of +1.47 pct helped keep the W/W loss to a minimum.

But XOM (-4.9 pct to 81.71) and CVX (-3.9 pct) led Big Oil down. Isn’t it nice when a plan (ie, “sell XOM at 94-95”) works out?

The 200-day Moving Average of $WTIC is up to 80.07 from 79.46, up from 78.81, up from 78.30, which continues to rise. But, the 50-day MA is now at 91.74, down from 92.55 down from 92.69, down from 93.21, and falling.

A week ago, the Cdns, ECA (+7.2 pct W/W and +10.0 pct over 2 weeks) and SU (+6.2 pct W/W) were winners. This week, IMO +2.1 pct, SU +2.9 pct and ECA +2.6 pct were also winners. I haven’t been watching why. Maybe it’s because the Nigerian and Venezuelan imports to the US are being halted and the US needs to ramp up production from Canada.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	50.89	1.03	2.07%	1.23%	4.18%	-3.98%	-7.34%	-12.15%	15.61%	42.55%
SU	94.74	2.67	2.90%	-0.15%	6.01%	-10.17%	-14.08%	-14.90%	3.20%	30.28%
ECA	67.31	1.68	2.56%	-0.69%	6.47%	-0.91%	-3.30%	-8.06%	10.38%	37.96%
PBR	111.57	-0.03	-0.03%	-1.32%	6.64%	-2.20%	-6.09%	-4.45%	73.30%	131.04%
CEO	149.84	2.82	1.92%	-2.21%	2.98%	-18.28%	-10.50%	-16.13%	27.02%	76.64%
CVX	79.26	0.52	0.66%	-3.92%	-3.13%	-13.75%	-15.19%	-11.12%	-6.01%	7.47%
STO	26.00	-0.20	-0.76%	-3.95%	0.89%	-13.07%	-16.77%	-24.04%	-10.81%	-0.50%
XOM	81.71	-0.18	-0.22%	-4.93%	-2.66%	-10.86%	-12.62%	-8.62%	-7.04%	8.28%
TOT	70.29	0.53	0.76%	-5.04%	-3.34%	-17.94%	-15.60%	-16.22%	-8.75%	2.17%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

Basic Materials (XLB -2.66 pct W/W) dropped this week despite a gain of +2.29 pct on Friday. I gave the warning a week ago.

(Last week’s WIR) XLB (Basic Materials) was up +6.45 pct W/W from 38.44 to 40.92. There was a gain of +2.43 pct on Friday. Over the past week, the winners were RTP +19.3 pct (+28.4 pct over 2 weeks), BHP +16.2 pct (+21.5 pct over 2 weeks), and RIO +14.2 pct. These stocks are all in play for M&A. These trades are not based on operations data or financial results. Ultimately BHP will take over Rio Tinto (RTP), it appears, and Vale [CVRD] (RIO) will buy Xstrata (whose shares trade in Europe). Huge steelmaker Mittal (MT) did well, but most of the big golds were actually down, mostly due to the -14.50 sell-off Friday in $GOLD.
The Cara system gave Sells recently on Barrick, Goldcorp, Kinross, Goldfields, etc. I continue to believe the goldminers, like the oil producers, are headed south, along with the broad market. Rallies that take place over a day or two or even a week or two don’t impress me unless they are driven by factors other than Intervention and short-covering.

The whole group took a hit this week, but BHP was especially down (-10.7 pct) after its plans for a Rio Tinto takeover did not go well.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NUE	60.00	3.07	5.39%	0.70%	9.15%	7.78%	3.50%	6.10%	9.31%	-5.32%
TCK	34.81	0.44	1.28%	-1.05%	7.07%	0.75%	-3.95%	-25.89%	-18.21%	-50.73%
AA	33.76	0.98	2.99%	-1.52%	10.00%	7.38%	-6.56%	-10.36%	-8.98%	3.43%
GGB	26.05	0.11	0.42%	-2.51%	5.59%	-11.45%	-9.23%	-12.85%	1.05%	49.71%
RIO	30.35	0.47	1.57%	-4.05%	9.53%	-6.79%	-7.21%	-17.88%	-38.06%	-9.97%
PKX	129.63	1.80	1.41%	-5.39%	-1.44%	-10.46%	-11.49%	-19.89%	-10.25%	42.73%
RTP	413.26	-3.94	-0.94%	-6.29%	11.79%	1.91%	-1.53%	-6.12%	53.91%	94.04%
MT	66.61	0.11	0.17%	-6.77%	5.76%	-2.69%	-12.81%	-13.18%	3.75%	40.14%
TS	37.80	0.50	1.34%	-7.67%	-0.47%	-6.30%	-14.85%	-20.80%	-24.88%	-20.08%
BHP	65.80	-0.55	-0.83%	-10.74%	3.75%	-6.57%	-6.55%	-14.38%	2.70%	51.06%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MMM	78.56	-0.56	-0.71%	-3.26%	4.04%	-2.06%	-5.02%	-5.16%	-10.88%	5.25%
UTX	71.35	-0.12	-0.17%	-3.74%	-1.92%	-1.44%	-5.13%	-4.48%	-3.65%	4.85%
HON	57.83	-0.94	-1.60%	-3.95%	-0.72%	0.02%	-3.46%	-2.46%	0.14%	24.18%
BA	79.33	-0.42	-0.53%	-4.14%	2.99%	-3.68%	-8.42%	-17.60%	-22.77%	-11.38%
ERJ	42.52	0.10	0.24%	-4.66%	3.76%	-11.44%	-5.78%	-9.22%	-14.84%	-3.89%
CAT	68.01	-0.31	-0.45%	-5.23%	3.15%	0.89%	-3.71%	-6.10%	-15.93%	3.63%
FDX	88.00	-2.16	-2.40%	-5.80%	-2.18%	3.51%	2.14%	-14.10%	-20.07%	-22.64%
GE	33.84	-0.39	-1.14%	-6.42%	-0.47%	-5.79%	-7.94%	-13.28%	-16.36%	-5.32%
ABB	23.46	-0.41	-1.72%	-9.77%	-3.26%	-10.39%	-18.09%	-23.78%	-2.57%	26.95%

XLI (Industrials) dropped -4.44 pct to 36.17 after having moved from 35.80 to 37.85 the prior week.

The sector losers among many this week were ABB (_9.8 pct), GE -6.4 pct and FDX -5.8 pct.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) dropped -4.15 pct to 31.44 after having moved from 30.86 to 32.80 a week ago.

I wrote four weeks ago in the WIR, “I can’t see US shoppers returning to the stores and malls until the gasoline price drops at the fuel pump. Right now, they are tapped out according to the credit card companies.”

Politics aside, the Crude Oil price lifted +2.81/bbl (+3.16 pct) this week, and traders feel that’s a negative for consumers. Also, the data on consumer spending is not looking good.

DIS and WHR lifted +4.8 pct and +3.9 pct respectively in a bad week. BC (-10.5 pct) and CCL (-8.9 pct) plunged. BC manufactures boats and CCL operates 3,000-passenger cruise ships. The deals to Nassau are really sweet I should say. :-)

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DIS	32.12	0.40	1.26%	4.76%	11.99%	4.73%	0.88%	-4.49%	-6.33%	-8.98%
WHR	89.03	-2.36	-2.58%	3.86%	14.46%	18.94%	11.45%	20.54%	-10.77%	-1.62%
TM	108.63	-1.75	-1.59%	-1.07%	6.50%	4.07%	2.04%	-0.33%	-11.84%	-17.77%
JCP	47.63	0.19	0.40%	-1.79%	12.12%	26.84%	14.36%	-5.25%	-31.62%	-42.92%
EBAY	28.07	0.23	0.83%	-2.57%	4.62%	-7.54%	-13.60%	-13.36%	-23.54%	-16.43%
NKE	60.64	-0.12	-0.20%	-2.99%	8.29%	-3.04%	-4.17%	-4.20%	7.12%	17.31%
SBUX	18.26	-0.27	-1.46%	-4.99%	-7.12%	-10.09%	-5.44%	-21.97%	-34.13%	-45.36%
CCL	40.81	-0.05	-0.12%	-8.87%	-1.45%	0.87%	-6.53%	-8.89%	-12.82%	-17.67%
BC	17.26	-0.61	-3.41%	-10.48%	0.94%	8.96%	2.01%	-19.46%	-36.64%	-48.87%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PEP	69.81	-0.60	-0.85%	1.42%	1.29%	-12.27%	-7.28%	-5.02%	-0.19%	10.27%
KO	59.25	0.80	1.37%	-0.02%	1.44%	-9.62%	-3.01%	-3.61%	6.07%	23.80%
PG	65.02	-0.75	-1.14%	-1.56%	-0.44%	-10.29%	-10.08%	-8.22%	-0.21%	0.67%
ABV	74.00	-1.12	-1.49%	-2.28%	10.58%	-3.76%	2.10%	-2.31%	4.83%	43.27%
BUD	46.83	-0.25	-0.53%	-2.56%	-0.89%	-12.65%	-9.30%	-7.23%	-8.21%	-6.69%
DEO	79.68	0.31	0.39%	-2.84%	1.05%	-4.29%	-6.32%	-12.79%	-5.68%	0.62%
MO	73.09	-1.01	-1.36%	-3.12%	-1.16%	-7.27%	-2.46%	0.51%	5.01%	14.27%
WFMI	39.38	0.41	1.05%	-3.39%	4.87%	8.57%	-0.96%	-14.22%	-12.24%	-13.13%
WAG	35.08	0.34	0.98%	-3.41%	2.33%	1.62%	-6.05%	-10.12%	-24.28%	-23.34%
WMT	48.76	-1.08	-2.17%	-4.73%	1.39%	0.74%	3.97%	11.78%	0.70%	0.93%

XLP (consumer staples) lost -2.33 pct to close at 26.83, after having moved from 26.70 to 27.47 in the week earlier beer-filled Super Bowl Week. That was when I wrote: “It’s been a great week (+13.2 pct) and two weeks (+17.5 pct) for the world’s biggest brewer, ABV. Pump, pump, pump… drink, drink, drink…It’s only an American football game for Pete’s sake. You’d think it soccer or cricket!! (LOL)”

I was trying to warn you that my trading this week would send ABV (-2.3 pct) and BUD (-2.6 pct) down this week. (LOL)

The Wallies (WMT and WAG) were down -4.7 pct and -3.4 pct respectively W/W. Consumer “liquidity” is drying up.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	0.00%	0.46%	10.90%
DNA	69.79	-0.13	-0.19%	-1.44%	2.95%	-1.54%	3.55%	-7.38%	-6.42%	-19.83%
AMGN	46.56	-0.17	-0.36%	-1.69%	-3.28%	-2.10%	-0.09%	-16.90%	-10.46%	-33.28%
JNJ	62.03	-0.78	-1.24%	-2.10%	-0.69%	-8.66%	-5.89%	-3.96%	-0.74%	-5.67%
NVS	48.95	-0.17	-0.35%	-2.93%	-2.57%	-17.10%	-10.30%	-7.06%	-12.54%	-16.57%
BMY	23.07	-0.27	-1.16%	-3.71%	0.44%	-14.33%	-11.71%	-19.70%	-22.92%	-19.62%
UNH	48.20	-0.83	-1.69%	-3.79%	-3.60%	-14.07%	-14.95%	-4.16%	1.32%	-5.93%
AET	50.70	-1.26	-2.42%	-4.74%	-3.61%	-14.34%	-10.49%	-7.18%	4.62%	18.10%
PFE	22.30	-0.37	-1.63%	-5.47%	-1.37%	-7.39%	-2.66%	-3.50%	-9.39%	-15.66%
GSK	42.16	-0.23	-0.54%	-10.32%	-10.14%	-22.17%	-15.97%	-17.17%	-20.09%	-24.50%

IYH (healthcare) lost -2.53 pct this week to 66.16 after having moved from 65.97 to 67.88 a week earlier.

No more political talk here this week. I’ve heard enough to last a lifetime.

Go Obama. Hire Ron Paul (R, but really independent) for VP. (LOL)

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DB	110.00	-1.11	-1.00%	-5.05%	-1.28%	-13.17%	-14.77%	-11.55%	-22.20%	-21.16%
HBC	71.44	-0.31	-0.43%	-7.43%	-5.63%	-11.57%	-13.34%	-20.61%	-23.37%	-20.43%
LEH	60.04	-0.44	-0.73%	-9.03%	3.75%	3.84%	-3.46%	7.00%	-7.32%	-28.88%
JPM	43.82	-1.29	-2.86%	-9.18%	0.41%	6.02%	3.91%	2.84%	-5.78%	-13.96%
GS	187.07	-3.39	-1.78%	-9.97%	-2.25%	-5.00%	-9.89%	-10.89%	-3.22%	-12.54%
MS	43.19	-1.69	-3.77%	-10.49%	-11.66%	-10.78%	-15.23%	-19.54%	-33.95%	-47.85%
MER	52.19	-1.46	-2.72%	-10.63%	-5.04%	0.31%	-1.08%	-2.97%	-33.24%	-44.69%
CS	51.72	-0.46	-0.88%	-11.33%	-4.13%	-10.29%	-13.34%	-15.17%	-27.56%	-27.23%
C	26.03	-0.67	-2.51%	-12.33%	-2.29%	-7.40%	-9.99%	-20.88%	-47.40%	-52.19%
UBS	36.84	-1.08	-2.85%	-12.37%	-11.48%	-18.96%	-19.55%	-21.73%	-35.41%	-42.46%

The Financials (XLF) got creamed this week. I suppose things weren’t going their way in preparing for the Saturday meeting of the G-7 in Tokyo.

XLF plunged -8.25 pct to 27.12. Thankfully so because I was getting to cynical. A week ago I wrote, “XLF boomed again this week, up +8.76 pct from 27.18 to 29.56, aided and abetted by the Fed and the Administration, as traders are now figuring out who really is going to get the biggest chunk of that $150 billion windfall? I can just hear those friendly bankers getting ready to phone Mr & Mrs Sub-prime to call their loans, ie, up to, but not exceeding, the $150 billion. From the tax-payers to the banks via the Sub-prime families. Paulson’s Pride. JPM +10.6 pct (and +20.5 pct over 2 weeks), C +11.5 pct (+19.0 pct over 2 weeks), and LEH +14.1 pct (yup, this week alone) (and +20.8 pct over 2 weeks)… all pumping the same shotgun. Doesn’t mean to say I have any interest. I’d like to see all the skeletons in the closet before laying down good money. I mean, Bank of America must be over the moon with Mozilo, with Countrywide (CFC) up +26.3 pct this week and +38.7 pct over 2 weeks.”

Well in the case of BAC’s hot shot mega-billion dollar investment in CFC, how big were the losses this week? Countrywide you say?

CFC plunged -13.42 pct W/W and is now down -84.9 pct over 52 weeks. And Mozilo still has a job? I think we all want dibs on employment or life that pays oh maybe $50 million a year for taking shareholders to a mega-mega billion dollar hit.

He says he’s going to pay some millions back. He probably could use the tax deduction, so the taxpayers are going to pay for that too.

It used to be that everybody hated Ma Bell. Now we’re all on Skype so who cares. Today it’s the banks that are hated. I wonder why asks one of the leading European bankers. Hmmm.

This is a week where traders exacted a small revenge. C -12.3 pct, CS -11.3 pct, MER -10.6 pct, MS -10.5 pct, GS -10.0 pct, AXP -9.3 pct, JPM -9.2 pct, AIG -9.1, and LEH -9.0 pct.

I guess all those humungous bonuses are margining the shorts and buying the puts in their own stocks. Do you think?

Well, before the Bull returns to his stomping grounds, the “boys” will be well positioned for the next run.

I was thinking last week that what we need are better toreadors because this Bull has been dragging his rear-end around Wall Street too long. Then out of the blue there is another round of selling the Financials. I figure since nobody really knows what’s going on inside the banks these days, the selling must be coming from insiders. (LOL)

Well maybe no so funny.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CTSH	31.84	4.56	16.72%	6.70%	18.50%	6.20%	-1.21%	0.86%	-26.82%	-32.24%
QCOM	41.92	0.98	2.39%	-0.66%	4.80%	10.34%	9.20%	5.43%	4.41%	9.57%
SAP	47.40	0.51	1.09%	-1.56%	3.56%	-3.29%	-6.56%	-9.56%	-13.96%	2.09%
SNDK	26.61	0.05	0.19%	-3.41%	3.86%	-6.04%	-19.78%	-31.86%	-51.86%	-36.37%
ADBE	33.19	0.57	1.75%	-3.74%	-4.74%	-15.44%	-20.43%	-26.29%	-17.50%	-12.77%
INFY	41.70	1.76	4.41%	-4.14%	6.24%	-2.66%	-6.14%	-1.60%	-18.67%	-31.09%
CSCO	23.54	0.16	0.68%	-5.61%	-2.73%	-10.29%	-11.30%	-20.55%	-25.69%	-16.38%
INTC	20.27	0.22	1.10%	-6.89%	1.35%	-10.07%	-20.04%	-21.83%	-17.87%	-5.06%
ADSK	38.94	0.37	0.96%	-7.20%	-5.71%	-12.81%	-19.28%	-17.78%	-11.56%	-7.81%
ORCL	19.19	-0.01	-0.05%	-7.21%	-5.37%	-11.49%	-14.67%	-5.70%	-5.00%	14.77%

A week ago I wrote, “SMH zoomed into #2 performer spot this week, right behind Financials (XLF). But, you know, that W/W gain of +7.92 pct happened over the space of a couple hours Friday (+7.42 pct), and shucks, most of Europe and all of Asia-Pacific missed it. I guess they will just have to catch up on Monday morning. (LOL) It’s been a long time since INTC had a week up +8.9 pct and be up +12.6 pct over two. Must be quite a few hurting short sellers out there. Well, you know who took your money, don’t you? Hmmm hmm, HB&B. Must have been Lehman, Citi and JP Morgan, the way those stocks were flying.”

I hope I haven’t been too cynical, but this week, SMH plunged -6.91 pct, so I guess those Wall Street guys squeezed the shorts enough and have joined the selling wave, having taken some easy money on the way down.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH +6.70 pct W/W) was saved by a short squeeze on Friday (+16.7 pct). How else does a stock rocket +16.7 pct when the sector is getting hammered, and the results and guidance were good but not great. Gimme a break.

This week’s losers were ORCL and ADSK (-7.2 pct each), INTC (-6.9 pct) and CSCO (-5.6 pct). Those are some pretty fine companies there. Well three out of four isn’t bad. The one with a woman CEO who has no money in the deal but extracts about $100 million a year in compensation, I no longer talk about. Sadly, that company was once a Cara Global 100, and on the bright side will once again when there is a change in CEO.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

A week ago, I wrote, “IYZ (telecommunications) lifted +6.33 pct from 24.98 to 26.56. Could this be the revival of telecom, or maybe just the shorts in T being forced to cover. T jumped +8.6 pct this week. I didn’t think Ma could jump that high. Must have had a McDonald’s coffee spilled in her lap in the drive-thru. I see that MCD was only up +0.22 pct over the whole five days.”

How I must have nailed it. This week, MCD was one of only two winners in the Dow 30 (+2.62 pct) while IYZ played limbo, going down -6.14 pct.

Short squeeze pain is over. Ma is back to her normal self.

Please, there is no way AT&T could be up +8.6 pct in a week unless, somehow, Houston discovered a lively Alexander Graham Bell sitting in the space station.

In other words, it doesn’t happen without games being played.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU (Utilities) dropped -3.11 pct to close at 38.99, after having moved from 38.18 to 40.24, a week ago.

I figure if long bonds AND oil prices are coming down, it’s going to be pretty hard for the institutional sales people to be selling many bullish ideas in this sector.

There are so many foreclosed homes coming under the wrecking ball at this point, it means the oil, gas, electricity and water have been shut off in every one of them. And the phone, but most people just walked away with their cell anyway. Any other utility?

Idea: Start investing in the wrecker’s companies and selling the utilities.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	2.13	2.10	2.00	3.11
6 Month	2.03	2.06	2.05	3.13
2 Year	1.92	2.05	2.07	2.72
3 Year	1.92	2.05	2.04	2.62
5 Year	2.68	2.83	2.74	3.13
10 Year	3.64	3.77	3.59	3.82
30 Year	4.42	4.52	4.31	4.34

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	2.25	2.29	2.31	2.76
2yr AAA	2.25	2.27	2.35	2.82
2yr A	2.66	2.43	2.47	3.11
5yr AAA	2.75	2.78	2.79	3.01
5yr AA	2.67	2.70	2.72	2.92
5yr A	3.03	3.06	3.08	3.29
10yr AAA	3.42	3.41	3.51	3.51
10yr AA	3.31	3.30	3.37	3.46
10yr A	3.65	3.64	3.73	3.74
20yr AAA	4.33	4.33	4.37	4.24
20yr AA	4.35	4.35	4.51	4.38
20yr A	4.43	4.64	4.48	4.19

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.25	3.47	3.37	4.19
2yr A	3.33	3.45	3.43	4.35
5yr AAA	3.93	4.21	4.00	4.40
5yr AA	4.08	4.21	4.16	4.61
5yr A	4.29	4.36	4.25	4.66
10yr AAA	4.98	5.11	4.96	5.06
10yr AA	5.20	5.31	5.13	5.30
10yr A	5.58	5.48	5.26	5.52
20yr AAA	5.55	5.60	5.38	5.22
20yr AA	5.83	5.91	5.71	5.69
20yr A	6.11	6.16	5.94	6.03

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The fixed income market turned to panic this week. Capital flowed from the 30- and 10-year Bonds and into the 5-year. T-Bill holdersl figured that returns of 2.0 pct and lower was a joke, and the economy and equity market are going S to SSE, so that capital got switched to the 2-year notes.

The 20-year TLT dropped -1.63 pct W/W, while the TIPS dropped -0.42 pct. Friday was a reversal day with strong gains in the bonds as panicked equity traders moved to any safe haven. I guess they figured the Saturday meeting of the G-7 in Tokyo would result in the spigots being turned on, helping the precious metals and oil, which were soaring.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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A week ago, I asked in this space, “Don’t you think “it’s time that central banks and HB&B told us what is happening there with respect to the repayment of these repo agreements”? The Financials had been on fire, but the bond markets had been quit.

So this week, there is a panic.

Anyway, the financials, and especially the REITs and commercial lenders got hammered. Countrywide, Fannie and Freddie dropped -13.4 pct, -12.1 pct and -8.5 pct respectively.

Maybe the central bankers were ashamed to look one another in the eye in Tokyo and admit they were being lenient on the commercial and investment bankers? Do you think?

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SHY	83.57	0.08	0.10%	0.23%	0.08%	1.15%	1.49%	2.28%	4.19%	4.53%
AGG	102.75	0.49	0.48%	-0.23%	-0.33%	0.67%	1.08%	2.29%	4.46%	2.79%
TIP	108.62	1.08	1.00%	-0.42%	-0.53%	2.02%	1.86%	4.00%	9.41%	9.72%
IEF	89.56	0.67	0.75%	-0.42%	-0.71%	1.76%	2.20%	4.94%	9.58%	8.82%
TLT	93.68	1.03	1.11%	-1.63%	-2.37%	0.22%	-0.74%	3.45%	8.73%	6.27%
FRE	29.70	-1.35	-4.35%	-8.47%	0.41%	6.53%	-9.29%	-32.22%	-52.59%	-53.95%
FNM	31.12	-1.25	-3.86%	-12.09%	-2.14%	-10.70%	-16.92%	-37.51%	-53.38%	-44.85%
CFC	6.580	-0.260	-3.80%	-13.42%	9.30%	-15.10%	-26.89%	-51.15%	-77.40%	-84.90%

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB lifted this week +3.11 pct from 364.34 to 375.67. On Friday, the gain was +2.29 pct, as the $USD dropped hard and energy, metals and other commodities prices rocked.

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is presently at 357.52, up from 355.75, up from 354.00, up from 353.32 and the 200-day MA is now 331.85, up from 330.48, up from 329.12, up from 328.11, and still rising.

The $USD does appear ready, however, to move stronger, which would serve to pressure the commodities downward.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) rocketed (+3.11 pct) from 88.96 to 91.77 this week.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 91.74, down from 92.55, down from 92.69, down from 93.21, whereas the 200d MA is 80.07, up from 79.46, up from 78.81, up from 78.30.

As I wrote in this space four weeks ago, “The price probably peaked seven sessions ago at 100.09. I look for lower prices over the next several months.” The loss of -2.10 pct in the XLE this week tells me that Friday’s bump in oil will be short-lived.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

The $GOLD contract lifted by +8.80/oz to close (+0.96 pct) at 922.30.

The contract was actually down on the week until Friday’s move (+12.30/oz +1.35 pct) as the $USD weakened, I believe, temporarily on negative news from Venezuela and Nigeria.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 857.42, up from 847.93, up from 834.69, up from 829.09, and the 200d MA is 744.36, up from 738.94, up from 733.05, up from 728.68.

However, the $XAU sold off again (-1.82 pct W/W) and so I’ll repeat my statement from a week ago, “I feel that the sell-off action in the major miners is the sign of weakness.”

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER lifted +1.42 pct from 16.87 to 17.11. Just like gold, there was a huge gain (of +2.00 pct) on Friday as the $USD weakened, which pulled silver out of a losing week.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is now 15.46, up from 15.25, up from 15.02, up from 14.95, and the 200d MA is 13.85, up from 13.78, up from 13.71, up from 13.66.

I think that Gold & Silver will likely move in the direction that the G-7 authorities would like, which is down in price. They stated that it would be ok for the IMF to sell its gold starting April. IMF conveniently doesn’t have a currency, so I guess they will sell it in Euros, to help the $USD and the interests of the ECB, which doesn’t want to lower rates, but needs a lower Euro exchange rate with the USD as the ECB opined at Tokyo.

To me, I see this statement that precious metals are headed south, and the rally on Friday was a good move by bankers and insiders to squeeze the shorts and sell into higher prices.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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A week ago, I wrote: “$PLAT, which had been very strong, this week exploded to the upside with a new price record. At the close, $PLAT was 1757.50, up +4.61 pct from 1613, up from 1565.50. The gain on Friday was +1.89 pct, so $PLAT kept on chugging.”

This week, the $PLAT went parabolic, which means the end is near. But I wonder how many hedge funds get taken down in the short squeeze? Seriously.

This week, $PLAT soared another $110/oz or +6.30 pct to 1868.20. On Friday alone the price jumped +27.10 (+1.47 pct).

There is an obese woman edging closer to the stage. I can hear her practicing off-stage.

The 50d MA for $PLAT is 1573.96, up from 1539.30, up from 1505.71, up from 1487.62. The 200d MA is 1397.68, up from 1385.29, up from 1372.28, up from 1359.50.

“I still think this $PLAT market hinges on the wealth effect in China.” Shanghai was closed Wednesday through Friday. Wait til the horror opening in Shanghai on Monday morning. I’m just going to make a flip guess that that equity market might plunge -10 pct.

Just a guess. Maybe the Shanghai Fly will send me a note tonight to tell me what’s happening over there. Traders beware.

It could be that interest rates in China rise, the margin requirements rise, the bankers reserve ratio requirements rise, and the Yuan moves quickly higher, which would be in line with the G-7 communique on Saturday.

But I do think there will be a reverse wealth impact on the holiday celebrations, which in the Year of the Rat is not unexpected anyway.

Four nines (the purity of gold) could take on a whole new meaning in that the least favorite number of the Chinese is the number four.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL soared +5.61 pct W/W – apparently. My data might be wrong, and I’m running very late, so I’ll skip it.

The 50d MA is 378.36, up from 370.90, and the 200d MA is 368.73, up from 367.40, up from 366.92.

Three weeks ago (at lower prices), I wrote, “I think the 50d and 200d technical support may not hold for palladium, but we will have to see on that score.” I think $PALL may be the first of the precious metals to show weakness, but I am not so sure of that.

I see some Discourse here on that topic but I haven’t had time to read it or look further. So much to do; so little time.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER rocketed +8.14 pct from 327.30 to 353.95, which I think was a short squeeze somewhat like Platinum and Palladium. I don’t believe that parabolic rises in price can carry on too long. Hitting the peak, however, is not something I’d try to do here. Suffice it to say that these metal and PM prices will be lower in a month or two, and the $USD higher, as I see it.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 315.47, up from 311.99, up from 310.61, but down from 328.81 just eight weeks ago, and the 200d MA is 336.96, down from 337.57, down from 338.37, down from 339.05.

Although the $COPPER has soared, I still feel good about my comment of three weeks ago: “The $COPPER price could, in fact, easily burst down through support of the 50d-MA (310.77 at the time).” I think this is a move to squeeze the shorts before taking the price down to recession-based lower levels. Too many traders think the $USD is going to zero, and they haven’t looked at the charts for the past couple months.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BVN	71.58	4.38	6.52%	9.17%	11.84%	10.53%	17.58%	17.34%	81.63%	144.55%
AEM	63.54	2.82	4.64%	2.29%	1.28%	3.08%	12.42%	15.36%	42.27%	55.01%
MDG	35.50	-0.58	-1.61%	1.69%	1.46%	-0.87%	35.03%	11.60%	26.83%	35.03%
KGC	22.19	1.29	6.17%	1.05%	0.05%	-2.03%	10.12%	16.61%	69.00%	66.97%
GG	36.85	1.92	5.50%	0.27%	-2.67%	-2.67%	0.57%	2.88%	43.44%	29.98%
ABX	50.10	1.99	4.14%	-1.57%	-3.97%	1.11%	8.87%	8.42%	46.92%	62.72%
AUY	15.53	0.81	5.50%	-2.27%	-0.58%	-4.72%	11.97%	9.37%	37.92%	11.33%
GFI	13.65	0.18	1.34%	-3.05%	-9.90%	-22.49%	-11.36%	-27.89%	-11.99%	-20.50%
NEM	51.29	1.07	2.13%	-3.64%	-3.70%	-4.88%	-2.10%	-5.12%	21.14%	11.96%

This week, $XAU (the Philadelphia Exchange goldminer index) dropped -1.82 pct from 184.61 to 181.25. A week ago there was a loss too, despite gold and silver soaring, and I wrote than, “Not much, but the loss came on Friday, and was led by the Big Three. Three weeks ago $XAU was at 193.55.”

Are you getting the message? There’s a squeeze on the futures traders, while the big capital pools are offing their stock positions. Banks have no money in the till to lend to the miners, so industry people will have to do like the bankers before them, go hat in hand to the Middle East and Far East gazillionaires for investment.

Gazillionaires want cheap stock.

Recently I wrote, “The past few weeks have been much more explosive to the upside than I had expected, and I was looking for a pull back.” I am still looking for a pull-back, but the Fed and the Administration are keeping the full-court press on with their pump, pump, pumping action.

Maybe that action ceases, and the $USD strengthens here.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 177.75, up from 177.18, up from 175.69, and the 200d MA is 159.17, up from 158.31, up from 157.28, up from 156.51.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The following data is a simulation of M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates.”

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Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

This week the $USD followed up from the prior week ending gain of +0.41 pct on the Friday. This week, the trade-weighted $USD jumped +1.51 pct to 76.62.

The 50d MA of the $USD is 76.26, up from 76.15, down from 76.20, and up from 76.16 three weeks ago, and above where it was four weeks ago at 76.20. The 200d MA is 79.07, down from 79.21, down from 79.37, down from 79.51 three weeks ago and from 79.68 four weeks ago. But it is the short-term MA that traders are watching at this point.

A week ago I wrote, “At some point, I am expecting to see a rally – right around the time that HB&B cleans the Street of the small speculators in precious metals.” The short squeeze that is on now is likely the Bull Trap that is used to hammer these speculators in the precious metals.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) moved down -2.05 pct to 145.12, and the ECB is whining that it’s still too high.

The Euro 50d MA is 146.57, down from 146.79, but up from the prior week’s 146.61, and the 200d MA is 140.50, up from 140.24, up from 139.92.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound moved down from 198.03 two weeks ago to 196.89, and now (-1.15 pct) to 194.63. There was a loss of -1.01 pct the previous Friday as the $USD popped.

The 50d MA is now 199.33, down from 200.41, down from 201.10, down from 202.08 three weeks ago, and from 203.30 four weeks ago, and the 200d MA is at 201.34, not much changed for four weeks.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) sagged a little this week, possibly consolidating earlier gains. It dropped -0.90 pct to 93.13.

The 50d MA of the Yen is 91.21, up from 91.07, up from 90.74, up from 90.40 three weeks ago, and from 89.80 four weeks ago, and the 200d MA is 86.52, up from 86.29, up from 86.05, up from 85.85 three weeks ago, and from 85.64 four weeks ago.

“As the Yen gains, the money flow is out of US and Japanese equities and back into the banks to repay loans… And vice versa.” Banks are getting reliquified on a Just In Time basis…

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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After a gain on Friday of +1.01 pct, which stemmed the loss of -0.54 pct on the week, the Loonie (Cdn Dollar) closed at 100.07.

A week ago I joshed that it gone to “100.61, just where Goldman Sach’s new man in the Bank of Canada presumably wants it. (LOL)” Well, maybe 100.07 is just 7 cents shy of the target he’s been given.

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 99.54, down from 99.68, down from 99.93, down from 100.56 three weeks ago, and from 101.45 four weeks ago. The 200d MA is 97.36, up from 97.09.

The current price of 100.07 is “a far northern Ontario wilderness cry from 110.17, just a (couple months) ago. I suppose if and when gold passes the 1000 mark, it could get back up there.” But, I doubt that, for a long while at least.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equity Markets Review

The international markets were hammered this week. The Toronto Exchange dropped from 13318.4 to 12989.3, down -2.5 pct and -6.1 pct YTD. And that’s one of the best performers.

The FTSE, DAX and CAC were down -4.1 pct, -2.9 pct, an -5.4 pct this week, and YTD the losses are -10.4 pct, -16.1 pct and -16.1 pct respectively.

The All Ords of Australia dropped -2.7 pct this week, and -10.9 pct YTD. The huge Tokyo Nikkei 225 dropped -3.6 pct with a YTD loss of -15.0 pct.

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I have added another 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together, and in relation to currency and commodity strength or weakness.

One of the improvements I plan to make in 2008 is to set up tables that include sector and industry indexes within various international markets so that you can observe and determine commonality of trends and cycles across different markets.

I’m also going to change the China ETF to GXC and drop the SPY and QQQ as well as the IEV and probably the TRF in favor of the EWG, EWQ, and EWI of Germany, France and Italy, and the EWA and EWH of Australia and Hong Kong, and also have a table for the domestic index values.

I might also increase the table size to 12.

The world is now a very small one in capital markets and international business. No longer are corporations just American, British, French, German, Italian, Canadian or Japanese. Most do business internationally. We need to observe their businesses and capital market prices on a global basis.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWC	30.04	0.48	1.62%	-2.85%	1.35%	-4.03%	-7.28%	-14.17%	-0.53%	17.62%
EWZ	75.07	-0.32	-0.42%	-3.69%	1.86%	-7.55%	-7.26%	-12.86%	16.79%	56.17%
QQQQ	43.60	0.49	1.14%	-4.36%	-0.89%	-9.15%	-13.58%	-15.72%	-10.73%	-2.02%
SPY	133.05	-0.88	-0.66%	-4.68%	0.01%	-5.83%	-8.20%	-9.59%	-11.20%	-8.25%
TRF	59.50	0.03	0.05%	-5.21%	-1.82%	-14.99%	-19.04%	-14.99%	-11.14%	-22.22%
EWU	21.17	0.03	0.14%	-5.74%	-2.49%	-8.32%	-11.35%	-19.04%	-15.89%	-10.98%
FXI	141.65	-2.55	-1.77%	-6.13%	-4.82%	-20.22%	-15.66%	-23.20%	4.23%	32.21%
IEV	98.69	-0.58	-0.58%	-6.81%	-2.56%	-11.60%	-13.45%	-18.91%	-15.10%	-8.11%
EWJ	11.96	-0.31	-2.53%	-6.93%	-4.09%	-8.00%	-9.60%	-11.93%	-16.66%	-15.95%
IFN	49.52	-1.48	-2.90%	-8.50%	-7.70%	-20.51%	-20.00%	-10.29%	4.83%	7.91%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped (plunged?) -4.4 pct, -4.6 pct, and -4.4 pct respectively. These indexes are now down -8.3 pct, -9.3 pct and -13.1 pct YTD respectively.

As I wrote last week, “I still believe we need to hear from central bankers if they have been extending those supposedly short-term loan agreements to HB&B. Just remember, the smart money is always watching the price series data, and tuning out the noise.”

Cramer is screaming louder, but who’s listening any more?

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DIS	32.12	0.40	1.26%	4.76%	11.99%	4.73%	0.88%	-4.49%	-6.33%	-8.98%
MCD	55.64	1.18	2.17%	2.62%	2.85%	-4.35%	-4.23%	-6.28%	10.64%	25.46%
KO	59.25	0.80	1.37%	-0.02%	1.44%	-9.62%	-3.01%	-3.61%	6.07%	23.80%
DD	45.44	0.26	0.58%	-1.11%	1.61%	0.35%	3.89%	-4.42%	-8.07%	-11.15%
AA	33.76	0.98	2.99%	-1.52%	10.00%	7.38%	-6.56%	-10.36%	-8.98%	3.43%
PG	65.02	-0.75	-1.14%	-1.56%	-0.44%	-10.29%	-10.08%	-8.22%	-0.21%	0.67%
JNJ	62.03	-0.78	-1.24%	-2.10%	-0.69%	-8.66%	-5.89%	-3.96%	-0.74%	-5.67%
MO	73.09	-1.01	-1.36%	-3.12%	-1.16%	-7.27%	-2.46%	0.51%	5.01%	14.27%
MRK	44.53	-1.17	-2.56%	-3.15%	-6.82%	-26.36%	-22.38%	-18.70%	-14.95%	1.39%
MMM	78.56	-0.56	-0.71%	-3.26%	4.04%	-2.06%	-5.02%	-5.16%	-10.88%	5.25%
UTX	71.35	-0.12	-0.17%	-3.74%	-1.92%	-1.44%	-5.13%	-4.48%	-3.65%	4.85%
HON	57.83	-0.94	-1.60%	-3.95%	-0.72%	0.02%	-3.46%	-2.46%	0.14%	24.18%
BA	79.33	-0.42	-0.53%	-4.14%	2.99%	-3.68%	-8.42%	-17.60%	-22.77%	-11.38%
WMT	48.76	-1.08	-2.17%	-4.73%	1.39%	0.74%	3.97%	11.78%	0.70%	0.93%
XOM	81.71	-0.18	-0.22%	-4.93%	-2.66%	-10.86%	-12.62%	-8.62%	-7.04%	8.28%
T	36.37	-0.63	-1.70%	-4.99%	3.15%	-7.69%	-11.29%	-7.55%	-9.86%	-2.70%
CAT	68.01	-0.31	-0.45%	-5.23%	3.15%	0.89%	-3.71%	-6.10%	-15.93%	3.63%
IBM	103.27	0.93	0.91%	-5.33%	-1.20%	3.35%	-1.36%	-2.68%	-8.59%	3.66%
PFE	22.30	-0.37	-1.63%	-5.47%	-1.37%	-7.39%	-2.66%	-3.50%	-9.39%	-15.66%
HPQ	41.88	1.38	3.41%	-5.72%	-4.25%	-7.63%	-15.92%	-16.14%	-15.22%	-1.39%
VZ	36.42	-0.53	-1.43%	-6.01%	-3.55%	-16.18%	-15.71%	-14.77%	-15.67%	-4.03%
MSFT	28.56	0.44	1.56%	-6.21%	-13.30%	-16.81%	-18.91%	-17.79%	-4.80%	-2.36%
GE	33.84	-0.39	-1.14%	-6.42%	-0.47%	-5.79%	-7.94%	-13.28%	-16.36%	-5.32%
INTC	20.27	0.22	1.10%	-6.89%	1.35%	-10.07%	-20.04%	-21.83%	-17.87%	-5.06%
HD	27.97	-0.43	-1.51%	-8.14%	-1.96%	10.64%	7.12%	-3.85%	-26.01%	-31.93%
AIG	50.68	-0.97	-1.88%	-9.06%	-4.77%	-12.33%	-9.98%	-9.50%	-23.77%	-27.17%
JPM	43.82	-1.29	-2.86%	-9.18%	0.41%	6.02%	3.91%	2.84%	-5.78%	-13.96%
AXP	44.98	-1.47	-3.16%	-9.31%	-1.01%	-8.05%	-11.87%	-19.82%	-28.56%	-23.10%
GM	25.80	-0.50	-1.90%	-10.97%	0.04%	8.95%	5.69%	-22.17%	-24.93%	-23.67%
C	26.03	-0.67	-2.51%	-12.33%	-2.29%	-7.40%	-9.99%	-20.88%	-47.40%	-52.19%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]

(WMT: Value Line Report Feb 8: next one is due May 9)

There are some things I like about Wal-Mart and others I don’t.

Starting with the positives, I like the rapid expansion into non-US markets, their ability to hold the line on margins, and their ability to grow revenues, cash flow, earnings and dividends at about +10 pct/year for 2007 and likely 2008, in what is proving to be a tough consumer market, which for such a huge bricks and mortar company is impressive. I like the fact they will pay out $0.97 to $1.00 in dividends this year on a stock I think I’ll be able to buy in the mid-40’s or better, giving me a good return from dividends. And I like the renewed emphasis on their stock buy-backs.

But while I like the new pending sale of $1 billion in low yielding 5- and 30-year notes, I don’t like all the debt I see rapidly growing on the balance sheet.

The company is still rated A++ and “1” by Value Line in terms of financial strength and safety. But, their working capital has moved in nine months from a deficit of -5.166 billion to a deficit of -9.437 billion. That’s the birth of an elephantine -4.271 billion debt increase. That’s a mother of an increase.

As for the stock, this week WMT dropped -4.73 pct, including a loss of -2.17 pct on Friday, closing at 48.76. The Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 (BillCara2.com calculations) are 56.9/55.3/45.1 and headed, along with the price, south. Buyers can be patient. Shorts can be smiling.

I like the long-base on the stock going back to 1Q2000. I do think the $80 upside target of Value Line for sometime in 2010 is a reasonable one, so after the current Bear cycles though a bottom, I would recommend a combination of long calls, long put writes, and share purchases (probably in the mid to low 40’s with a then current PE of about 12.3.

With your future dividend to cost, plus the put write premium income, plus the gain on the calls and on the stock, I feel, you will average your Total Return at something north of +30 pct per year.

For those who wonder why I would buy calls as well as the stock, the answer is simple. From the point where I determine a long-term cycle bottom of the stock, I am committed for possibly three years when I think the long-term trend (say 200-day Moving Average) will be consistently rising. But, there will be down cycles in a rising market, and so rather than commit all the ammo to the stock, I save some for the calls, and I trade those on the basis of rising short-term cycles, and sell them at short-term cycle peaks. If I feel confident in my decision, I may write covered calls on my long stock position. Clearly if I did that I would also close the short puts at that point too.

Wal-Mart is a Cara 100 and WMT ought to be a core portfolio holding. It is a retailer anybody can understand and also get plenty of Wall Street research to study. Some traders prefer to go into the consumer sector ETF’s but determining a discretionary vs staples spending company is getting pretty hard for 800-pound gorillas like Wal-Mart.

For the first time in my life, I went to Sam’s this week. I bought passport photos, eyeglasses, and some food items. I’m impressed. I think it was only three years ago, after I started hearing Jim Cramer spewing his stuff about Soviet USSR-style department store appearances that I first visited a Wal-Mart, and I was impressed then too. Basically, I saw for the first time how diversified – food, electronics, furniture, etc – these stores are. And I could see that Cramer was a joke, and when he started telling his viewers and readers to buy the Sears Holdings deal of his buddy Eddie Lampert, I thought some switch. Like Circuit City, bankrupt city.

Well, they cranked the SHLD up to 195 last year, but its now 98 and change. Traders, however, have never seen a -50 pct loss in any year with WMT, and they likely won’t ever, so Talking Heads can go on all they want about Wal-Mart; I ignore them and stick to my own analysis.

There are a few of them out there in the consumer space, but you pick a Procter & Gamble (PG) and Diageo (DEO), along with Wal-Mart, and you have a pretty good core of 800-pound consumer-consumables related gorillas to manage in your portfolio. Add to these some other Cara 100’s like Exxon (XOM) in Energy, Dow Chemical (DOW) in Basic Materials, General Electric (GE) in the Industrial Conglomerates, Toyota (TM) in the Consumer Autos, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in Consumer Healthcare, Citigroup (C) in Financials, and Oracle (ORCL) in Technology, and you have a well-balanced, solid core portfolio. These aren’t Google (GOOG)-type rockets, but they teach you money management the way you have to learn it, which is with patience, and except for Oracle and Toyota, they are all Cara Global 100 Dow 30 companies. In fact, if you want to dip into Cara USA 100 companies to replace the ORCL with a Dow 30 component, I’d go to either IBM (IBM), Hewlett-Packard (HWP) or Microsoft-Yahoo (MSFT).

Just joking about the Yahoo. Actually the $31 being offered by Microsoft is a joke. Try $36 and do the deal.

You know, or you will if, as and when my book ever gets off the press, every trader needs to be grounded in reality “lessons”.

By that I mean it might be more entertaining to you to trade the higher-risk junior stocks, and their stories, but you really do need to first gain the experience of succeeding at the art and science of trading, and you can best do that trading about ten stocks, and seeing for yourself how the equity markets relate to the debt markets and the economic data, and how the special tools like options and futures can be used, and within the equity markets what the convertibles, rights and warrants are all about.

When you get that broad base of TRADING experience in the bag, then its time to expand your horizons to an increasing number of stocks and trading techniques that can help you compete with the Warren Buffets of the world who you are trading against.

Not a bad segue into the Dow 30…

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The Dow 30 Company links in chronological order of next reports

Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 7: next one is due Mar. 7)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 14: next one is due Mar. 14)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 21)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 18: next one is due Apr. 18)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 25: next one is due Apr. 25)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 1: next one is due May 2)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 1: next one is due May 2)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb 8: next one is due May 9)

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Wrap up:

On Tuesday, as alerted in the previous WIR, the National/Financial Post did publish an article that covered my trading and blogging. As I noted at the time, "Fingers crossed it turns out ok."

Well, in fact, the writer did an accurate and though job for which I am thankful.That became a Super Tuesday for me.

This stuff is important, and fun, and it’s important to have fun, but there is never enough time to prepare as much of the right stuff as I’d like, or analyze it, or even edit. Today, some of the charts were screwed up as a hangover from when we went to a dedicated server at the ISP. Things are getting better quickly, but there are no 28-hour days. Sorry.

The WIR is what it is. Sometimes a whir, it happens so fast.

btw, I hope I'm not too far off the mark with my comment about Shanghai overnight. That was simply my crystal ball at work. I haven't seen any evidence to lead me that way, and now I'm headed for dinner -- not Chinese by the way.

Although I like Chinese.

And Italian.

Ciao.

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