I feel that, despite several trillion dollars of lost wealth in the equity market since October, the primary Bear is just half over. There are too many Bulls and too much hope for the condition referred to as capitulation to exist.

But, without any question, the combination of the Fed’s easing (double round of rate cuts in the past two weeks) and the US Government’s $150 billion stimulus plan will boost the domestic economy in the second half of 2008. The question is how much impact it will have on short and intermediate cycles and which industries are going to benefit most.

I have been scratching my head on this development wondering how somebody like Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, with a razor sharp intellect, can look into the cameras and tell Mom & Pop “this deal is for you”. I know it’s his job and all, but how pathetic can the misrepresentations be before the man simply cannot sleep at night.

These financial aid packages are here to help the banks and corporate America, not the consumers. Knowing that the government is cutting $150 billion checks to the People, prices in the stores for consumer products have already gone up and the Retailer stocks ($RLX + 18.0 pct in less than three weeks) have already skyrocketed.

Why not? Traders know that when Jane goes down to JC Penny to buy that dress she’s wanted, does she care the price jumped from $60 to $90? Not when the govt handed her the money. And when Joe pops into Home Depot to buy that power drill, would he care that he could have purchased the same item in December for 30 pct less? Nope. The govt made him do it.

So inside a couple weeks, JCP rocketed +45 pct and HD soared +28 pct. And Jane and Joe did nothing more than buy inflation. Thank you, Henry Paulson.

I say it was Mr. Treasury Secretary because I hardly think the President gave this one much thought.

And when Mary and John, the brother and sister of Jane and Joe, get their new “found” money, they might even do the prudent thing, which would be to pay down their bank loans and credit card debt. So, traders who figured that one out have already popped the stocks of banks and credit card companies. The $BKS surged +28.5 pct and Master Card (MC) jumped +22.6 pct in three weeks.

So sub-prime Mary & John help clean up the problems of the financial companies at the same time the Fed cuts the bankers’ cost of borrowing. But do prime rates come down? Do credit card rates come down? Nope. This is all about serving the interests of bankers. In fact, ‘sub-prime’ Mom & Pop are now going to fill up the bank reserves to help those banks lend even more to their ‘prime’ Friends & Family.

And when banks and insurance companies are freshened up with new capital, they are going to spend it on computer hardware, software and communications gear and bandwidth. Why? Because they need automation to replace the human staff (Mom, Pop & their kids) they recently terminated. Besides, the branch offices they closed need to be replaced with more ATM machines. Didn’t you hear? The world is going electronic. Doesn’t need people.

So smart traders, people like Henry Paulson, had it figured out. Print money. Reflate. Keep the game going hopefully through the new Presidential and congressional elections this Fall.

Had the US authorities actually wanted to do good, they could have held the line on rates, fought inflation, let the stronger banks take over the weak ones, and spent the $150 billion with matching funds from industry to create new jobs in situations like alleviating traffic jams and providing cheaper computers to educational facilities. You know, stuff that actually creates wealth and not inflation or more bonuses to bankers.

But, the leaders of America don’t get it. They think they can rip off Mom & Pop forever, transferring wealth from the masses to the classes, ignoring the resultant increase in dysfunctional society.

Please note: that’s not a political statement because the process continues under the watch of both Parties. Both Parties have sunk in the public polls, for good reason.

I’ll say this: when people can get good jobs, they become happy. They start to buy cars and homes. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that America is screwed up today.

Some people – not me – will tell you that the -125 basis point cut in a bank’s borrowing cost and the gift of $500 to every man, woman and child is going to fix the problems.

Dream on.

Now, I have been asked a lot about what to do with cash on the sidelines. The high yielding business & royalty income funds have really boomed in the past couple weeks, so that is no longer an option. But should these securities come back down in price in the next couple weeks then that is where I would recommend cash be put to work.

Some of these instruments have very good underlying cash flow yields that serve to protect their high distribution yields. Traders need to check the current price-to-cash flow ratios as well.

You need to do your due diligence in this area though because should a recession occur and get serious, the share prices might fall off as distributions could potentially get cut.

As you know, with income securities, it’s all about Total Performance (distributions plus price appreciation).

Still, I think if the share price is right, this area (income investing in trusts) is probably the best place to be for now. The Accumulation Zone and Buy Alerts still apply, so keep a watchful eye.

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Global Economics Review

Econoday International Report (Jan 25).

US Economic Calendar for next week.

It is important to review the following reports published this past week on the US economy that continues to worsen.

US Jobs Report for January.

The US New Home Sales report for December.

The US Durable Goods Orders report for December.

The Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Report for January.

The University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Survey for January.

The ISM Manufacturing Index and Report for January.

US Personal Income & Consumer Spending Report for January.

The US Advance GDP Report for Q4.

The economy slowed sharply in the final quarter of 2007 (from +4.9 pct annual growth rate in Q3 to +0.6 pct) and, in addition, inflation picked up significantly from +1.0 pct annual growth rate in Q3 to +2.6 pct.

The consensus had forecast that Q4 GDP would post a +1.2 percent annualized gain and that price inflation would pick up to an annualized rate of +2.5 pct. Consensus was too optimistic on both counts.

On Monday, the US Factory Orders data will be published.

The US Factory Orders data for December.

On Tuesday, the US Non-Manufacturing Business Activity data for January will be published.

The US Non-Manufacturing Business Activity data for January.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

THIS WEEK closed with 3 GREEN industries and 4 RED, compared to last week’s 0 green, 25 Red. Chemicals and Mining rose straight from RED to GREEN, Transportation from neutral to GREEN. Staying RED were: Energy, Food&Beverage, Drugs, and Utilities. The rest were neutral. All 31 major industries rose in price (from 1.94% for computer software/services to 9.97% for specialty retail.)

33 Cara100’s were GREEN (Qualcomm) and 30 were RED. (Last week’s count was 1 to 69!)

Ticker	Name	Score -5wks	Score -4wks	Score -3wks	Score -2wks	Score -1wks	Score -0wks
ABB	ABB Ltd.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
ABV	COMP DE BEBA AM ADS	+2	+2	+2	-2	-2	+2
ABX	Barrick Gold Corp.	+0	+2	+2	+0	+2	+2
ADBE	Adobe Systems Inc.	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
AET	Aetna Inc.	+2	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2
AMAT	Applied Materials Inc.	+0	-2	-2	+0	+0	+2
ATVI	Activision Inc.	+2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
BA	Boeing Co.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
BBBY	Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
BBD	Banco Bradesco S.A.	+2	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2
BC	Brunswick Corp.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
BDK	Black & Decker Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
BHP	BHP Billiton Ltd.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.	-2	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2
CCJ	Cameco Corp.	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
CCL	Carnival Corp.	+2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
CEO	CNOOC Ltd.	+0	+0	+2	-2	-2	-2
CHA	China Telecom Corp. Ltd.	+0	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2
CHL	China Mobile Limited	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
CHRW	CH Robinson Worldwide Inc.	+2	+0	-2	-2	+0	+2
COST	Costco Wholesale Corp.	+2	+0	+0	-2	-2	+2
CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
CTSH	Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
CVX	Chevron Corp.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
DB	Deutsche Bank AG	+2	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
DELL	Dell Inc.	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
DEO	Diageo plc	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
DIS	Walt Disney Co.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
DOW	Dow Chemical Co.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
DNA	Genentech Inc.	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	+0
ECA	EnCana Corp.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	+2
ERJ	EMBRAER - Empresa Brasileira de Aeron�utica S.A.	+2	+2	+2	-2	-2	+0
ERTS	Electronic Arts Inc.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
EXC	Exelon Corp.	+0	+0	+2	-2	-2	-2
GE	General Electric Co.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
GFI	Gold Fields Ltd.	-2	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2
GG	Goldcorp Inc.	+2	+2	+2	+0	+2	+0
GGB	Gerdau S.A.	+2	+2	+2	-2	-2	+0
GOL	GOL Linhas A�reas Inteligentes S.A.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
GOOG	Google Inc.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
GRMN	Garmin Ltd.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
GS	Goldman Sachs Group Inc.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2
GSK	Glaxosmithkline plc	-2	-2	+2	-2	-2	-2
HBC	HSBC HLDGS PLC ADS	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
HDB	HDFC Bank Ltd.	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
IBKR	Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
IBN	ICICI Bank Ltd.	+2	+0	+2	+0	+0	+0
IMO	Imperial Oil Ltd.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
INFY	Infosys Technologies Ltd.	+2	+0	+0	-2	-2	+2
INTC	Intel Corp.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
JCP	J. C. Penney Company, Inc	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0	+2
JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	+0	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
KB	Kookmin Bank	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
KO	Coca-Cola Co.	+0	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2
KSS	Kohl's Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
LEH	Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2
LLTC	Linear Technology Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
MBT	Mobile Telesystems OJSC	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
MFC	Manulife Financial Corporation	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
MICC	Millicom International Cellular SA	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2
NKE	Nike Inc.	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2
NOK	Nokia Corp.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2
NTES	Netease.com Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
NUE	Nucor Corp.	+2	+0	-2	-2	+0	+2
ORCL	Oracle Corp.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
OXPS	optionsXpress Holdings, Inc.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
PAYX	Paychex Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
PBR	PETROLEO BRASILEIRO	+2	+2	+0	-2	+0	+2
PDA	Perdigao S.A.	+0	+0	+2	-2	-2	+0
PG	Procter & Gamble Co.	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
PTR	PetroChina Co. Ltd.	-2	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2
QCOM	QUALCOMM Inc.	+2	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2
RIO	COMPANHIA VALE ADS	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2
RIMM	Research In Motion Ltd.	+2	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
RY	Royal Bank of Canada	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
SBUX	Starbucks Corp.	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
SLW	Silver Wheaton Corp.	+2	+2	+0	-2	+0	-2
SNDK	SanDisk Corp.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
STO	StatoilHydro ASA	-2	+2	-2	-2	-2	+0
SU	Suncor Energy Inc.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
SWK	Stanley Works	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2
TCK	Teck Cominco Ltd.	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0
TEF	Telefonica SA	+0	+0	+2	-2	-2	-2
TGP	Teekay LNG Partners LP.	+0	+0	+2	+0	-2	+0
TGT	Target Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2
TM	Toyota Motor Corp.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
TOT	Total SA	+2	+2	+2	-2	-2	-2
TS	Tenaris SA	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
TT	Trane Inc	+2	+2	+0	+0	+0	+0
UBS	UBS AG	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	+0
UTX	United Technologies Corp.	+2	+2	-2	-2	+0	+2
VCP	Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2
VIP	Vimpel-Communications	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	+0
WAG	Walgreen Co.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
WBK	Westpac Banking Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+2
WFMI	Whole Foods Market Inc.	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0	+2
WHR	Whirlpool Corp.	+0	+0	-2	-2	+0	+2
WMT	Wal-Mart Stores Inc.	+2	-2	+2	+0	+0	+2
XOM	Exxon Mobil Corp.	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2	-2
YHOO	Yahoo! Inc.	-2	-2	+0	-2	-2	+2
Summary:	(+2/-2/other)	45/19/35	24/42/33	18/51/30	0/80/19	3/69/27	33/31/35
Net:	(+2)-(-2)	+26	-18	-33	-80	-66	+2

­All the major US stock indices rose to neutral. Remaining RED’s are: the US$ index, Shanghai, and Hong Kong composites. The Bombay composite was neutral.

GOLD and SILVER stocks stayed neutral.

BOTTOM LINE: Last week (after the 1st rate cut) the “net green count” (green minus red) moved from -29 industries to -25. This week, after the 2nd cut, the “net green” count moved from -25 to -1 !!! Still, looking forward, the market confounds. The two “technical gurus” I follow have virtually opposite outlooks for the intermediate term.

A digression:

Alex Elder expects an imminent retest of recent lows, but is an intermediate bull based on the 1/22/08 down-spike in the new high/new low index. It was one of the 3 deepest in the last decade. You have to go back to the week after 9/11 to find a deeper one. These downspikes define intermediate-term bottoms. As to whether the 2003 bull market is over, Alex is agnostic. (Write jock at billcara.com if you’d like to see Alex’ high/low charts.)

The venerable Don Worden’s Friday report acknowledges short-term and sub-intermediate term upturns in the 4 major averages, but concludes we are in primary and intermediate downtrends in all 4, and that “the grizzly carnivore will snarl again, possibly sooner than I’ve had in mind…” Worden is one of the wise, salty old dogs of technical analysis, who began charting with pencil and paper.

I find comfort in my uncertainty from a 3rd guru, Dick Davis, whose new book advises: whenever you arrive at a judgment about a stock’s or market’s direction, force yourself to describe an opposite scenario. As you make your moves, prepare yourself to deal with either outcome. - Amen.

Jock
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NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

This week, for the Dow 30 stocks, 28 were up and 2 down (MSFT and MRK).

The Interventionists are pumping hard to put life back into a dead Bull. But, traders are nervous, and I still believe that the Bear lives. The big movers were the Financials (C up +11.5 pct W/W and +19.0 pct over 2 weeks!!) (JPM up +10.6 pct W/W and +20.5 pct over 2 weeks!!)

Even with all the help from their friends in Washington, these banks did not solve their problems.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Some of the moves this week were incredible (SNDK up +8.3 pct on Friday), and corresponded with our recent Buy Alerts. However, I think that the Semi-conductors had one good day – Friday.

Several weeks ago I wrote in this space, “Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY” I said that the Techs would lead the market one way or the other, and you know which way I was indicating.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week the scoreboard reads ten up and zero down.

The best performer was Financials (again) and the worst, Staples.

Volatility means traders must use prudence as in a Bear market, there are many confounding whip-saws. Still, if there is to be a rally, the AZ/BA is the place to look.

Sophisticated traders will wait for the Buy signals in Bear markets to sell positions into strength. All traders have to learn this tactic.

In any case, a technology feature I hope to implement will be a table that tracks the gains and losses of this simple RSI-7 system. It is an unsophisticated system that I can easily flesh out into something very valuable.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLF	29.56	0.42	1.44%	8.76%	14.57%	4.90%	4.23%	-7.86%	-11.55%	-20.75%
SMH	30.24	2.09	7.42%	7.92%	9.84%	-1.85%	-3.57%	-11.24%	-20.25%	-11.32%
XLB	40.92	0.97	2.43%	6.45%	10.80%	-2.69%	-0.92%	-3.35%	3.65%	11.53%
IYZ	26.56	0.30	1.14%	6.33%	0.49%	-8.41%	-8.95%	-15.09%	-20.76%	-13.43%
XLY	32.80	0.22	0.68%	6.29%	10.59%	3.02%	1.86%	-8.25%	-11.35%	-17.17%
XLI	37.85	0.85	2.30%	5.73%	8.92%	-1.79%	-1.71%	-5.04%	-4.66%	4.99%
XLU	40.24	1.02	2.60%	5.40%	-0.96%	-4.26%	-4.40%	-3.25%	3.37%	9.02%
XLE	71.35	1.75	2.51%	3.86%	3.78%	-11.30%	-10.25%	-4.51%	3.63%	22.38%
IYH	67.88	0.88	1.31%	2.90%	-3.73%	-3.72%	-3.17%	-4.19%	0.68%	-1.55%
XLP	27.47	0.27	0.99%	2.88%	-0.29%	-2.73%	-3.24%	-1.36%	3.23%	2.69%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE), pumped from 68.70 up +3.86 pct to 71.35. But on Friday, both XOM and CVX dropped. Crude Oil took a big hit (-1.93 pct W/W because it dropped -3.04 pct on Friday).

The 200-day Moving Average of $WTIC is up to 79.46, up from 78.81, up from 78.30, which continues to rise. But, the 50-day MA is now at 92.55 down from 92.69, down from 93.21, and falling.

A week ago, XOM on Friday dropped -2.40 pct. This Friday XOM dropped as well, and so did CVX. Yes, XLE was up +2.51 pct on Friday, but those Big Oil stocks dropped Friday. Warning.

PBR was up +8.1 pct this week, and +22.2 pct over 2 weeks, on news of a major discovery. The Cdns, ECA (+7.2 pct W/W and +10.0 pct over 2 weeks) and SU (+6.2 pct W/W) were winners.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	113.06	2.10	1.89%	8.07%	22.15%	-3.17%	-4.84%	20.66%	77.24%	127.71%
ECA	67.78	1.72	2.60%	7.21%	9.98%	-4.84%	-2.63%	-4.12%	10.00%	39.98%
SU	94.88	0.94	1.00%	6.17%	6.01%	-15.98%	-13.96%	-10.62%	5.27%	27.07%
CEO	153.22	7.93	5.46%	5.31%	3.96%	-9.79%	-8.48%	-24.15%	33.50%	79.69%
STO	27.07	0.79	3.01%	5.04%	5.04%	-14.77%	-13.35%	-16.86%	-7.39%	0.71%
IMO	50.27	1.05	2.13%	2.91%	3.97%	-8.50%	-8.47%	-4.72%	7.32%	39.21%
XOM	85.95	-0.45	-0.52%	2.39%	2.43%	-8.40%	-8.08%	-2.88%	0.13%	14.48%
TOT	74.02	1.24	1.70%	1.79%	-4.13%	-13.02%	-11.12%	-4.31%	-6.03%	7.18%
CVX	82.49	-0.76	-0.91%	0.82%	-0.31%	-12.81%	-11.74%	-7.36%	-3.15%	10.77%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) was up +6.45 pct W/W from 38.44 to 40.92. There was a gain of +2.43 pct on Friday.

Over the past week, the winners were RTP +19.3 pct (+28.4 pct over 2 weeks), BHP +16.2 pct (+21.5 pct over 2 weeks), and RIO +14.2 pct.

These stocks are all in play for M&A. These trades are not based on operations data or financial results. Ultimately BHP will take over Rio Tinto (RTP), it appears, and CVRD (RIO) will buy Xstrata (whose shares trade in Europe).

Huge steelmaker Mittal (MT) did well, but most of the big golds were actually down, mostly due to the -14.50 sell-off Friday in $GOLD.

The Cara system gave Sells recently on Barrick, Goldcorp, Kinross, Goldfields, etc. I continue to believe the goldminers, like the oil producers, are headed south, along with the broad market. Rallies that take place over a day or two or even a week or two don’t impress me unless they are driven by factors other than Intervention and short-covering.

Still, there are some really impressive stock analysts and buy-side managers who believe this equity market is poised to run much, much higher from here, so I have to say that.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RTP	441.00	34.05	8.37%	19.29%	28.38%	2.97%	5.08%	22.26%	58.60%	102.43%
BHP	73.72	6.15	9.10%	16.24%	21.49%	2.03%	4.70%	-10.57%	17.99%	77.98%
RIO	31.63	1.62	5.40%	14.15%	11.81%	-4.41%	-3.30%	-13.18%	-34.77%	-7.24%
MT	71.45	5.06	7.62%	13.45%	16.79%	-5.81%	-6.48%	-5.13%	9.40%	47.62%
AA	34.28	1.19	3.60%	11.70%	19.07%	-5.28%	-5.12%	-9.55%	-9.67%	4.51%
NUE	59.58	1.74	3.01%	8.39%	18.45%	4.80%	2.78%	2.88%	17.77%	-8.08%
GGB	26.72	0.74	2.85%	8.31%	5.03%	-8.77%	-6.90%	-11.84%	5.65%	56.99%
TCK	35.18	2.49	7.62%	8.21%	15.69%	-3.35%	-2.92%	-26.68%	-19.16%	-53.06%
TS	40.94	0.97	2.43%	7.79%	11.98%	-8.72%	-7.77%	-20.75%	-14.83%	-14.53%
PKX	137.01	1.51	1.11%	4.17%	5.64%	-7.26%	-6.45%	-17.46%	-1.43%	49.72%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CAT	71.76	0.77	1.08%	8.84%	14.87%	1.96%	1.60%	-2.11%	-10.45%	10.42%
ERJ	44.60	1.20	2.76%	8.83%	5.26%	-4.41%	-1.17%	-6.48%	2.46%	8.57%
MMM	81.21	1.56	1.96%	7.55%	8.34%	-1.80%	-1.81%	-3.21%	-8.82%	9.76%
BA	82.76	-0.42	-0.50%	7.44%	4.07%	-4.85%	-4.46%	-14.33%	-20.83%	-9.10%
ABB	26.00	0.98	3.92%	7.22%	10.64%	-7.41%	-9.22%	-12.69%	9.24%	44.28%
GE	36.16	0.80	2.26%	6.35%	8.88%	-1.74%	-1.63%	-10.36%	-7.16%	-0.19%
FDX	93.42	0.10	0.11%	3.85%	12.85%	7.00%	8.43%	-7.70%	-15.94%	-16.51%
HON	60.21	1.14	1.93%	3.36%	8.35%	0.02%	0.52%	1.98%	5.35%	31.09%
UTX	74.12	0.85	1.16%	1.88%	8.86%	-2.83%	-1.45%	-0.80%	-0.71%	8.08%

XLI (Industrials) lifted +5.73 pct from 35.80 to 37.85.

The winners were CAT +8.8 pct and MMM (+7.6 pct), both of which are Dow 30 stocks. ERJ gained +8.8 pct. A week ago, the loser was ERJ (-3.3 pct W/W).

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) lifted +6.29 pct from 30.86 to 32.80. As I wrote two weeks ago in this space, right before the surge in prices of the Retailer stocks, “Traders must have been listening to the President’s $150 billion stimulus package speech. Besides oil prices are on the downswing.”

I wrote three weeks ago in the WIR, “I can’t see US shoppers returning to the stores and malls until the gasoline price drops at the fuel pump. Right now, they are tapped out according to the credit card companies.”

Then along came the President’s man and HB&B’s man Henry Paulson with his plan to give $500 to every man, woman and child in America, with checks going out in June I understand. Simply amazing. The People are up to their eyes in credit card debt, then give them enough for a few payments to tide them through to the Dem win in November. Then we can blame the recession on them.

That’s what it looks like to me. Clinton did the same to Bush, so it’s an eye for an eye.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JCP	48.50	1.15	2.43%	14.17%	24.30%	21.74%	16.45%	-10.04%	-29.42%	-42.79%
BC	19.28	0.36	1.90%	12.75%	29.66%	17.20%	13.95%	-12.04%	-31.68%	-44.31%
NKE	62.51	1.18	1.92%	11.62%	11.66%	-0.32%	-1.22%	-2.05%	9.86%	24.18%
WHR	85.72	0.43	0.50%	10.21%	22.81%	8.34%	7.31%	10.24%	-14.58%	-7.08%
CCL	44.78	0.38	0.86%	8.14%	17.44%	4.26%	2.57%	-4.32%	-0.04%	-14.13%
TM	109.80	1.48	1.37%	7.65%	11.36%	2.71%	3.14%	-4.06%	-7.86%	-17.62%
EBAY	28.81	1.92	7.14%	7.38%	2.45%	-12.27%	-11.33%	-17.69%	-12.11%	-10.39%
DIS	30.66	0.82	2.75%	6.90%	6.57%	-3.49%	-3.71%	-9.29%	-9.37%	-12.43%
SBUX	19.22	0.31	1.64%	-2.24%	0.89%	2.78%	-0.47%	-25.59%	-29.34%	-44.14%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	75.73	4.71	6.63%	13.16%	17.50%	1.54%	4.48%	-6.29%	12.04%	44.36%
WFMI	40.76	1.32	3.35%	8.55%	15.60%	3.19%	2.52%	-13.66%	3.14%	-7.30%
WMT	51.18	0.44	0.87%	6.43%	7.79%	10.35%	9.13%	16.24%	10.73%	7.12%
WAG	36.32	1.28	3.65%	5.95%	8.94%	3.59%	-2.73%	-6.94%	-18.80%	-20.59%
DEO	82.01	1.24	1.54%	4.01%	5.87%	-3.87%	-3.59%	-9.18%	0.22%	3.20%
MO	75.44	-0.35	-0.46%	2.01%	-1.77%	-0.25%	0.68%	4.95%	13.31%	14.91%
BUD	48.06	1.56	3.35%	1.71%	-3.40%	-8.65%	-6.91%	-4.66%	-3.51%	-6.50%
KO	59.26	0.26	0.44%	1.46%	-4.48%	-4.00%	-3.00%	-2.69%	11.24%	23.20%
PG	66.05	0.63	0.96%	1.13%	-2.97%	-8.66%	-8.66%	-3.70%	4.58%	1.09%
PEP	68.83	0.78	1.15%	-0.13%	-4.54%	-9.17%	-8.58%	-4.92%	3.61%	5.28%

XLP (consumer staples) gained +2.88 pct from 26.70 to 27.47 this beer-filled Super Bowl Week.

It’s been a great week (+13.2 pct) and two weeks (+17.5 pct) for the world’s biggest brewer, ABV. Pump, pump, pump… drink, drink, drink…

It’s only an American football game for Pete’s sake. You’d think it soccer or cricket!! (LOL)

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data: