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February 1, 2008
Daily Report for Fri, Feb 1, 2008
Markets Re-cap
Call it the Deal of the Year, if it actually happens. Microsoft has made an unsolicited offer to buy Yahoo for $44.6 billion in cash and stock. The offer is $31/share for YHOO. YHOO last traded at $19.18, but in the pre-market today is up over +60 pct to just under $31.
On Thursday, traders seemed to like the story coming from MBIA that the bond insurer would not default on coverage, which would have caused broad-based declines in credit ratings.
After rebounding from early lows, the DJIA (+207.53), S&P 500 (+22.74), and Nasdaq Composite (+40.86) closed strongly. Led by the cyclicals. The Dow Transports were up +2.96 pct.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY +4.19 pct) and Financials (XLF +3.06 pct) were the leading sectors, while Energy (XLE -0.80 pct) held the major market indexes back a bit.
Among the highest performing industries, the Retailers ($RLX +4.44 pct), Airlines ($XAL +3.33 pct), Banks ($BKX +3.55 pct), and Broker-Dealers ($XBD +3.29 pct).
Asian markets finished mixed early on Thursday, while European shares except for the UK FTSE (+0.73 pct), closed down (DAX lost -0.34 pct).
On the economic front, Jobless claims in the US were reported to have jumped +69,000 to 375,000 last week, which is the highest level since October 2005. The Commerce Department reported December consumer spending increased +0.2 pct.
On the earnings front, Google (GOOG), after the close, reported 4Q net income lifted +17 pct to $1.21 billion vs $1.03 billion in the year ago 4Q. The shares immediately traded down by about -7.5 pct. Procter & Gamble (PG) 2Q net income lifted +14 pct to $3.27 billion vs $2.86 billion a year earlier. Early today, Exxon (XOM) reported 4Q net income rose nearly +14 pct from the year-earlier net of $10.25 billion.
Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -0.63 pct during yesterday’s session to $91.75/bbl on more discussion of a US recession.
The $USD recovered slightly. US Treasury prices sustained an early in the session flight-to-safety bid.
$GOLD lifted to a record 928, up +0.18 pct.
In the futures market this morning earlier this morning, the March DJIA are up +123, the $USD is down and interest rates up, while Crude Oil is up +0.30 and the precious metals really strong.
Spot gold is up +8.10 to 933.30, spot silver +0.35 to 17.18, spot platinum +19.0 to 1748 and spot palladium up +12.5 to 399.5.
But, after the US Job (Loss) Report came out at 8:30am ET, the equity futures fell back sharply to +46 for the DJ. A January estimate of a loss of -17,000 jobs in the US will heat up trader’s recession fears today.
Comments & Outlook
Traders already believe that the US is in recession, so the Jobs Report was not as shocking as might be expected.
Microsoft-Yahoo is today’s BIG news, with ramifications for the future of Internet communications, the development of the Web, advertising media, and the like. This is drama being played out in real time. Google is now reported to be lining up a deal to take over AOL.
The other news development is in the mining area where mergers and acquisition discussions are heating up. Goldcorp (GG/G) has sold its interest in Silver Wheaton (SLW) in order, I believe, to fund a few impressive take-overs. The first of those is likely Geologix (GIX.V).
This year’s Prospectors & Developers convention is looking like the best ever, with over 20,000 people attending from almost every part of the world, representing governments, mining and exploration companies, financial and media companies, and industry suppliers. Caraistas will be out in full-force to attend the many hundreds of public company exhibits. That part is free. Please confirm to Jock [at] billcara.com if you plan to attend because we have lots to organize.
The biggest independent mining and exploration financier today is IBK Capital. I’m off for much of the rest of today to meet their CEO. Let’s see what kind of deal can be done.
I hope to get the links fixed to the charts and tables below, asap.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| CCL | 44.350 | +2.510 | +6 | 6.4M |
| SWK | 51.360 | +2.850 | +5.9 | 1.8M |
| TGT | 55.420 | +3.040 | +5.8 | 19.7M |
| JCP | 47.350 | +2.560 | +5.7 | 8.9M |
| KSS | 45.530 | +2.410 | +5.6 | 8.3M |
| BC | 18.890 | +0.990 | +5.5 | 3.5M |
| QCOM | 42.420 | +2.140 | +5.3 | 31.3M |
| BDK | 72.640 | +3.560 | +5.2 | 1.6M |
| NOK | 36.920 | +1.550 | +4.4 | 24M |
| BBBY | 32.200 | +1.280 | +4.1 | 7.2M |
| EXC | 76.020 | +2.980 | +4.1 | 7.7M |
| INFY | 41.400 | +1.500 | +3.8 | 5.4M |
| WHR | 85.330 | +3.080 | +3.7 | 2.6M |
| TM | 108.320 | +3.600 | +3.4 | 1.7M |
| VCP | 29.550 | +0.960 | +3.4 | 595.3K |
| WMT | 50.770 | +1.610 | +3.3 | 46.2M |
| NKE | 61.330 | +1.930 | +3.2 | 7.4M |
| IBKR | 34.810 | +1.070 | +3.2 | 1.7M |
| KB | 66.500 | +1.980 | +3.1 | 875.7K |
| PDA | 45.340 | +1.340 | +3 | 69.1K |
| CHRW | 55.540 | +1.590 | +2.9 | 3.6M |
| GOOG | 564.300 | +16.030 | +2.9 | 14.5M |
| BHP | 67.570 | +1.910 | +2.9 | 4.5M |
| RIO | 29.940 | +0.790 | +2.7 | 33.2M |
| COST | 67.940 | +1.710 | +2.6 | 8M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| SLW | 15.390 | -0.910 | -5.6 | 4.7M |
| GG | 37.230 | -1.510 | -3.9 | 10.9M |
| ABX | 51.410 | -1.820 | -3.4 | 15M |
| ADBE | 34.930 | -1.010 | -2.8 | 16.4M |
| UBS | 41.270 | -0.990 | -2.3 | 6.4M |
| TCK | 32.690 | -0.720 | -2.2 | 2M |
| DELL | 20.040 | -0.390 | -1.9 | 32.6M |
| GOL | 19.580 | -0.370 | -1.9 | 1.2M |
| SBUX | 18.910 | -0.310 | -1.6 | 43.6M |
| DB | 112.830 | -1.730 | -1.5 | 978.2K |
| IBN | 60.760 | -0.800 | -1.3 | 2.6M |
| STO | 26.280 | -0.340 | -1.3 | 2.7M |
| CHA | 71.980 | -0.920 | -1.3 | 486.8K |
| TS | 39.970 | -0.450 | -1.1 | 2.4M |
| CCJ | 33.790 | -0.360 | -1.1 | 2.8M |
| ATVI | 25.870 | -0.270 | -1 | 6.7M |
| CTSH | 27.900 | -0.290 | -1 | 5.1M |
| GFI | 15.000 | -0.120 | -0.8 | 8.2M |
| PAYX | 32.720 | -0.240 | -0.7 | 9.7M |
| BMY | 23.130 | -0.130 | -0.6 | 27.7M |
| AET | 53.250 | -0.220 | -0.4 | 3.7M |
| IMO | 49.220 | -0.110 | -0.2 | 420.7K |
| SU | 93.940 | -0.080 | -0.1 | 2.9M |
| BBD | 27.050 | -0.020 | -0.1 | 9.5M |
| HBC | 75.310 | -0.020 | -0 | 2.5M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| IBKR | 35.000 | 34.810 | +1.070 | +3.17 | 1.68M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| BMY | 21.750 | 23.130 | -0.130 | -0.56 | 27.74M |
| GSK | 45.890 | 47.380 | +0.610 | +1.30 | 2.88M |
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| PAYX | 32.720 | -0.7 | 9.7M | +144 |
| TM | 108.320 | +3.4 | 1.7M | +142 |
| SBUX | 18.910 | -1.6 | 43.6M | +107 |
| GOOG | 564.300 | +2.9 | 14.5M | +104 |
| ADBE | 34.930 | -2.8 | 16.4M | +86 |
| TT | 44.630 | +0.2 | 10.6M | +74 |
| WMT | 50.770 | +3.3 | 46.2M | +70 |
| CHRW | 55.540 | +2.9 | 3.6M | +67 |
| BC | 18.890 | +5.5 | 3.5M | +66 |
| NKE | 61.330 | +3.2 | 7.4M | +52 |
| TCK | 32.690 | -2.2 | 2M | +48 |
| DEO | 80.830 | +2.6 | 1.4M | +48 |
| UBS | 41.270 | -2.3 | 6.4M | +46 |
| IBKR | 34.810 | +3.2 | 1.7M | +42 |
| EXC | 76.020 | +4.1 | 7.7M | +39 |
| PG | 65.560 | +0.7 | 19.8M | +38 |
| INFY | 41.400 | +3.8 | 5.4M | +37 |
| ATVI | 25.870 | -1 | 6.7M | +36 |
| ABV | 71.020 | +0.7 | 1.2M | +35 |
| WHR | 85.330 | +3.7 | 2.6M | +35 |
| GGB | 25.980 | +1 | 4.7M | +34 |
| MBT | 83.210 | +0.2 | 2.6M | +34 |
| TGT | 55.420 | +5.8 | 19.7M | +32 |
| WBK | 116.270 | +2 | 44K | +30 |
| JNJ | 63.140 | +1.5 | 20.4M | +28 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| GOL | Avondale | --- |
|
--- | Underperform |
|
Mkt Perform |
| DIS | Pali Capital | --- |
|
34.00 | Neutral |
|
Buy |
| ERTS | Bear Stearns | --- |
|
--- | Peer Perform |
|
Outperform |
| NKE | JP Morgan | --- |
|
--- | Neutral |
|
Overweight |
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| SBUX | ThinkEquity | 30.00 |
|
20.00 | Buy |
|
Accumulate |
| ADBE | Jefferies | 50.00 |
|
30.00 | Buy |
|
Underperform |
| UBS | Morgan Stanley | --- |
|
--- | Equal-weight |
|
Underweight |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| YHOO | Pacific Crest | --- |
|
--- | Outperform |
|
Sector Perform |
| YHOO | Smith Barney | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Hold |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABX | 51.44 | 88.55 | 71.77 | 55.73 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $51.44, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day DZ) |
| PBR | 110.96 | 84.46 | 59.96 | 64.79 | |
| GG | 37.23 | 80.61 | 62.01 | 51.13 | |
| COST | 67.94 | 76.86 | 55.03 | 59.71 | |
| NOK | 36.68 | 71.18 | 50.64 | 64.12 | |
| TT | 44.63 | 70.19 | 68.22 | 54.61 | |
| WMT | 50.74 | 69.09 | 70.44 | 71.88 | |
| CHRW | 55.54 | 62.41 | 64.94 | 76.96 | |
| QCOM | 42.42 | 56.58 | 63.01 | 72.97 | |
| WHR | 85.29 | 44.89 | 57.06 | 75.73 | |
| SWK | 51.36 | 44.75 | 57.26 | 81.56 | |
| TM | 108.32 | 39.44 | 52.62 | 75.25 | Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $99.25, +9.14% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| BBBY | 32.20 | 39.28 | 58.26 | 71.78 | |
| DOW | 38.64 | 35.61 | 46.33 | 70.81 | |
| JCP | 47.35 | 26.66 | 53.02 | 76.00 | |
| BC | 18.92 | 25.62 | 52.55 | 85.85 | Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-01-22 at $15.30, +23.66% chg], after a 6 day AZ) |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 18.91 | 16.49 | 29.63 | 40.03 | |
| KSS | 45.53 | 20.48 | 45.21 | 69.57 | |
| SNDK | 25.45 | 22.24 | 16.14 | 32.46 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $25.45, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| UBS | 41.28 | 22.49 | 29.46 | 39.55 | Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-01-22 at $40.56, +1.78% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| WAG | 35.04 | 23.97 | 39.06 | 57.47 | |
| BC | 18.92 | 25.62 | 52.55 | 85.85 | Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-01-22 at $15.30, +23.66% chg], after a 6 day AZ) |
| DELL | 20.04 | 26.34 | 25.69 | 35.67 | Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-01-24 at $21.09, -4.98% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| JCP | 47.35 | 26.66 | 53.02 | 76.00 | |
| DIS | 29.84 | 28.56 | 33.06 | 56.24 | Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $28.52, +4.63% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| HBC | 75.31 | 28.66 | 30.35 | 39.71 | Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $76.62, -1.71% chg], after a 4 day AZ) |
| TGP | 28.88 | 28.98 | 37.85 | 46.14 | |
| PAYX | 32.72 | 29.21 | 23.34 | 41.95 | Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $33.05, -1.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| LLTC | 27.67 | 29.47 | 23.28 | 43.32 | Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $28.05, -1.35% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| BMY | 23.02 | 31.01 | 22.30 | 30.85 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-01-28 at $23.59, -2.42% chg], after a 4 day AZ) |
| YHOO | 19.18 | 32.44 | 20.45 | 28.79 | |
| DB | 112.83 | 32.74 | 27.10 | 35.83 | |
| ADBE | 34.93 | 34.84 | 26.20 | 33.56 | |
| CSCO | 24.50 | 35.63 | 22.35 | 45.78 | |
| ERTS | 47.37 | 36.35 | 26.26 | 37.42 | |
| CCJ | 33.81 | 37.71 | 30.59 | 26.73 | |
| STO | 26.28 | 39.65 | 28.94 | 40.76 | |
| PTR | 142.28 | 45.59 | 30.14 | 27.27 | |
| DEO | 80.77 | 46.08 | 28.57 | 57.43 | |
| PG | 65.42 | 48.57 | 25.53 | 30.76 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
