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February 1, 2008

Daily Report for Fri, Feb 1, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Call it the Deal of the Year, if it actually happens. Microsoft has made an unsolicited offer to buy Yahoo for $44.6 billion in cash and stock. The offer is $31/share for YHOO. YHOO last traded at $19.18, but in the pre-market today is up over +60 pct to just under $31.

On Thursday, traders seemed to like the story coming from MBIA that the bond insurer would not default on coverage, which would have caused broad-based declines in credit ratings.

After rebounding from early lows, the DJIA (+207.53), S&P 500 (+22.74), and Nasdaq Composite (+40.86) closed strongly. Led by the cyclicals. The Dow Transports were up +2.96 pct.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY +4.19 pct) and Financials (XLF +3.06 pct) were the leading sectors, while Energy (XLE -0.80 pct) held the major market indexes back a bit.

Among the highest performing industries, the Retailers ($RLX +4.44 pct), Airlines ($XAL +3.33 pct), Banks ($BKX +3.55 pct), and Broker-Dealers ($XBD +3.29 pct).

Asian markets finished mixed early on Thursday, while European shares except for the UK FTSE (+0.73 pct), closed down (DAX lost -0.34 pct).

On the economic front, Jobless claims in the US were reported to have jumped +69,000 to 375,000 last week, which is the highest level since October 2005. The Commerce Department reported December consumer spending increased +0.2 pct.

On the earnings front, Google (GOOG), after the close, reported 4Q net income lifted +17 pct to $1.21 billion vs $1.03 billion in the year ago 4Q. The shares immediately traded down by about -7.5 pct. Procter & Gamble (PG) 2Q net income lifted +14 pct to $3.27 billion vs $2.86 billion a year earlier. Early today, Exxon (XOM) reported 4Q net income rose nearly +14 pct from the year-earlier net of $10.25 billion.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) dropped -0.63 pct during yesterday’s session to $91.75/bbl on more discussion of a US recession.

The $USD recovered slightly. US Treasury prices sustained an early in the session flight-to-safety bid.

$GOLD lifted to a record 928, up +0.18 pct.

In the futures market this morning earlier this morning, the March DJIA are up +123, the $USD is down and interest rates up, while Crude Oil is up +0.30 and the precious metals really strong.

Spot gold is up +8.10 to 933.30, spot silver +0.35 to 17.18, spot platinum +19.0 to 1748 and spot palladium up +12.5 to 399.5.

But, after the US Job (Loss) Report came out at 8:30am ET, the equity futures fell back sharply to +46 for the DJ. A January estimate of a loss of -17,000 jobs in the US will heat up trader’s recession fears today.


Comments & Outlook

Traders already believe that the US is in recession, so the Jobs Report was not as shocking as might be expected.

Microsoft-Yahoo is today’s BIG news, with ramifications for the future of Internet communications, the development of the Web, advertising media, and the like. This is drama being played out in real time. Google is now reported to be lining up a deal to take over AOL.

The other news development is in the mining area where mergers and acquisition discussions are heating up. Goldcorp (GG/G) has sold its interest in Silver Wheaton (SLW) in order, I believe, to fund a few impressive take-overs. The first of those is likely Geologix (GIX.V).

This year’s Prospectors & Developers convention is looking like the best ever, with over 20,000 people attending from almost every part of the world, representing governments, mining and exploration companies, financial and media companies, and industry suppliers. Caraistas will be out in full-force to attend the many hundreds of public company exhibits. That part is free. Please confirm to Jock [at] billcara.com if you plan to attend because we have lots to organize.

The biggest independent mining and exploration financier today is IBK Capital. I’m off for much of the rest of today to meet their CEO. Let’s see what kind of deal can be done.


I hope to get the links fixed to the charts and tables below, asap.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
CCL 44.350 +2.510 +6 6.4M
SWK 51.360 +2.850 +5.9 1.8M
TGT 55.420 +3.040 +5.8 19.7M
JCP 47.350 +2.560 +5.7 8.9M
KSS 45.530 +2.410 +5.6 8.3M
BC 18.890 +0.990 +5.5 3.5M
QCOM 42.420 +2.140 +5.3 31.3M
BDK 72.640 +3.560 +5.2 1.6M
NOK 36.920 +1.550 +4.4 24M
BBBY 32.200 +1.280 +4.1 7.2M
EXC 76.020 +2.980 +4.1 7.7M
INFY 41.400 +1.500 +3.8 5.4M
WHR 85.330 +3.080 +3.7 2.6M
TM 108.320 +3.600 +3.4 1.7M
VCP 29.550 +0.960 +3.4 595.3K
WMT 50.770 +1.610 +3.3 46.2M
NKE 61.330 +1.930 +3.2 7.4M
IBKR 34.810 +1.070 +3.2 1.7M
KB 66.500 +1.980 +3.1 875.7K
PDA 45.340 +1.340 +3 69.1K
CHRW 55.540 +1.590 +2.9 3.6M
GOOG 564.300 +16.030 +2.9 14.5M
BHP 67.570 +1.910 +2.9 4.5M
RIO 29.940 +0.790 +2.7 33.2M
COST 67.940 +1.710 +2.6 8M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
SLW 15.390 -0.910 -5.6 4.7M
GG 37.230 -1.510 -3.9 10.9M
ABX 51.410 -1.820 -3.4 15M
ADBE 34.930 -1.010 -2.8 16.4M
UBS 41.270 -0.990 -2.3 6.4M
TCK 32.690 -0.720 -2.2 2M
DELL 20.040 -0.390 -1.9 32.6M
GOL 19.580 -0.370 -1.9 1.2M
SBUX 18.910 -0.310 -1.6 43.6M
DB 112.830 -1.730 -1.5 978.2K
IBN 60.760 -0.800 -1.3 2.6M
STO 26.280 -0.340 -1.3 2.7M
CHA 71.980 -0.920 -1.3 486.8K
TS 39.970 -0.450 -1.1 2.4M
CCJ 33.790 -0.360 -1.1 2.8M
ATVI 25.870 -0.270 -1 6.7M
CTSH 27.900 -0.290 -1 5.1M
GFI 15.000 -0.120 -0.8 8.2M
PAYX 32.720 -0.240 -0.7 9.7M
BMY 23.130 -0.130 -0.6 27.7M
AET 53.250 -0.220 -0.4 3.7M
IMO 49.220 -0.110 -0.2 420.7K
SU 93.940 -0.080 -0.1 2.9M
BBD 27.050 -0.020 -0.1 9.5M
HBC 75.310 -0.020 -0 2.5M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
IBKR 35.000 34.810 +1.070 +3.17 1.68M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
BMY 21.750 23.130 -0.130 -0.56 27.74M
GSK 45.890 47.380 +0.610 +1.30 2.88M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
PAYX 32.720 -0.7 9.7M +144
TM 108.320 +3.4 1.7M +142
SBUX 18.910 -1.6 43.6M +107
GOOG 564.300 +2.9 14.5M +104
ADBE 34.930 -2.8 16.4M +86
TT 44.630 +0.2 10.6M +74
WMT 50.770 +3.3 46.2M +70
CHRW 55.540 +2.9 3.6M +67
BC 18.890 +5.5 3.5M +66
NKE 61.330 +3.2 7.4M +52
TCK 32.690 -2.2 2M +48
DEO 80.830 +2.6 1.4M +48
UBS 41.270 -2.3 6.4M +46
IBKR 34.810 +3.2 1.7M +42
EXC 76.020 +4.1 7.7M +39
PG 65.560 +0.7 19.8M +38
INFY 41.400 +3.8 5.4M +37
ATVI 25.870 -1 6.7M +36
ABV 71.020 +0.7 1.2M +35
WHR 85.330 +3.7 2.6M +35
GGB 25.980 +1 4.7M +34
MBT 83.210 +0.2 2.6M +34
TGT 55.420 +5.8 19.7M +32
WBK 116.270 +2 44K +30
JNJ 63.140 +1.5 20.4M +28

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
NONE FOUND.
• PREVIOUS SESSION
GOL Avondale --- --- Underperform Mkt Perform
DIS Pali Capital --- 34.00 Neutral Buy
ERTS Bear Stearns --- --- Peer Perform Outperform
NKE JP Morgan --- --- Neutral Overweight

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
SBUX ThinkEquity 30.00 20.00 Buy Accumulate
ADBE Jefferies 50.00 30.00 Buy Underperform
UBS Morgan Stanley --- --- Equal-weight Underweight
• PREVIOUS SESSION
YHOO Pacific Crest --- --- Outperform Sector Perform
YHOO Smith Barney --- --- Buy Hold


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
ABX51.4488.5571.7755.73Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $51.44, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
PBR110.9684.4659.9664.79
GG37.2380.6162.0151.13
COST67.9476.8655.0359.71
NOK36.6871.1850.6464.12
TT44.6370.1968.2254.61
WMT50.7469.0970.4471.88
CHRW55.5462.4164.9476.96
QCOM42.4256.5863.0172.97
WHR85.2944.8957.0675.73
SWK51.3644.7557.2681.56
TM108.3239.4452.6275.25Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $99.25, +9.14% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
BBBY32.2039.2858.2671.78
DOW38.6435.6146.3370.81
JCP47.3526.6653.0276.00
BC18.9225.6252.5585.85Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-01-22 at $15.30, +23.66% chg], after a 6 day AZ)

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX18.9116.4929.6340.03
KSS45.5320.4845.2169.57
SNDK25.4522.2416.1432.46Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $25.45, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
UBS41.2822.4929.4639.55Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-01-22 at $40.56, +1.78% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
WAG35.0423.9739.0657.47
BC18.9225.6252.5585.85Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-01-22 at $15.30, +23.66% chg], after a 6 day AZ)
DELL20.0426.3425.6935.67Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-01-24 at $21.09, -4.98% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
JCP47.3526.6653.0276.00
DIS29.8428.5633.0656.24Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $28.52, +4.63% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
HBC75.3128.6630.3539.71Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $76.62, -1.71% chg], after a 4 day AZ)
TGP28.8828.9837.8546.14
PAYX32.7229.2123.3441.95Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $33.05, -1.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
LLTC27.6729.4723.2843.32Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $28.05, -1.35% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BMY23.0231.0122.3030.85Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-01-28 at $23.59, -2.42% chg], after a 4 day AZ)
YHOO19.1832.4420.4528.79
DB112.8332.7427.1035.83
ADBE34.9334.8426.2033.56
CSCO24.5035.6322.3545.78
ERTS47.3736.3526.2637.42
CCJ33.8137.7130.5926.73
STO26.2839.6528.9440.76
PTR142.2845.5930.1427.27
DEO80.7746.0828.5757.43
PG65.4248.5725.5330.76


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
GM 28.21 0.75 2.73% 10.11% 23.46% 15.57% 15.57% -28.02% -12.93% -14.10%
CAT 70.99 2.55 3.73% 8.80% 10.46% 0.51% 0.51% -4.85% -9.91% 10.80%
T 38.49 1.14 3.05% 7.66% 1.64% -6.12% -6.12% -7.90% -1.71% 2.29%
AA 33.09 0.39 1.19% 7.40% 8.03% -8.41% -8.41% -16.42% -13.38% 2.45%
BA 83.18 0.26 0.31% 7.16% 4.14% -3.97% -3.97% -15.63% -19.58% -7.12%
JPM 47.40 0.05 0.11% 5.43% 14.41% 12.40% 12.40% 0.85% 7.70% -6.93%
MMM 79.65 1.43 1.83% 5.18% 3.04% -3.70% -3.70% -7.77% -10.43% 7.20%
HON 59.07 0.91 1.56% 5.11% 2.68% -1.39% -1.39% -2.22% 2.71% 29.28%
AXP 49.13 1.79 3.78% 4.29% 11.05% -3.74% -3.74% -19.39% -16.07% -15.61%
WMT 50.74 1.58 3.21% 3.74% 6.84% 8.19% 8.19% 12.23% 10.42% 6.40%
HD 30.64 1.26 4.29% 3.65% 16.32% 17.35% 17.35% -2.76% -17.57% -24.79%
C 28.17 0.34 1.22% 3.07% 7.36% -2.59% -2.59% -32.77% -39.51% -48.90%
DIS 29.84 0.43 1.46% 2.09% 0.03% -6.28% -6.28% -13.83% -9.58% -15.15%
GE 35.36 0.42 1.20% 2.05% 2.31% -3.81% -3.81% -14.09% -8.77% -1.91%
INTC 21.10 0.41 1.98% 1.98% 6.14% -16.77% -16.77% -21.56% -10.67% 0.67%
VZ 38.83 0.59 1.54% 1.57% -8.25% -10.14% -10.14% -15.72% -8.89% 0.80%
PFE 23.36 0.26 1.13% 1.34% -0.17% 1.96% 1.96% -5.08% -0.64% -10.98%
MO 75.79 -0.79 -1.03% 1.20% -2.72% 1.15% 1.15% 3.92% 14.02% 15.57%
UTX 73.27 0.52 0.71% 0.98% 3.14% -2.58% -2.58% -4.33% 0.41% 7.72%
XOM 86.40 1.12 1.31% 0.47% -0.15% -7.60% -7.60% -6.08% 1.49% 16.60%
IBM 107.11 1.46 1.38% 0.19% 5.39% 2.31% 2.31% -7.76% -3.20% 8.03%
AIG 54.97 0.60 1.10% -0.13% -5.08% -2.36% -2.36% -12.91% -14.35% -19.69%
JNJ 63.26 1.08 1.74% -0.39% -7.39% -4.02% -4.02% -2.93% 4.56% -5.30%
DD 45.18 0.62 1.39% -0.59% 1.99% 3.29% 3.29% -8.75% -3.32% -8.84%
MCD 53.58 2.57 5.04% -0.78% 2.23% -7.78% -7.78% -10.33% 11.93% 20.81%
PG 65.42 0.33 0.51% <