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February 5, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Feb 05, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Maybe it was Superbowl hangover or just another rejection of New York (Guiliani, ...Clinton?), but yesterday’s action in US equity markets was more selling than buying.

The DJIA (-108.0 -0.85 pct to 12635.16), S&P 500 (-14.60 -1.05 pct to 1380.82) and Nasdaq Composite (-30.51 -1.26 pct to 2382.85) sagged as the Financials (XLF -2.90 pct) and Technology (-2.07 pct) led the way down. Only the Utilities (XLU +1.44 pct) were looking good on an otherwise blue Monday.

The Banks ($BKX -4.11 pct), Broker-Dealers ($XBD -2.30 pct) and Retailers ($RLX -3.17 pct), which had been last week’s big winners, were all leaders on the downside.

The consumer stocks, CCL (-6.1 pct), TGT (-5.3 pct), BBBY (-5.1 pct), WHR (-4.8 pct), ERTS (-4.4 pct) and JCP (-3.9 pct), all gave back some or all of the previous week’s gains. So too were the bankers hit, eg, UBS -4.6 pct, LEH -3.3 pct, and the India-duo of HDB and IBN at -3.0 pct and -2.9 pct respectively.

Most of the gainers were in the coal and oils, such as TCK +5.9 pct, the Chinese oils PTR and CEO (+3.8 pct and +3.1 pct respectively) and Canadian Oils IMO and SU (+2.1 pct and +1.7 pct respectively).

On the corporate deals front, it looks like the Microsoft (MSFT) bid for Yahoo (YHOO) might run into resistance. Google (GOOG) CEO Eric Schmidt offered Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang financial muscle to fight off Gates, Ballmer & Co.

On the earnings front, Archer Daniels Midland's (ADM) fiscal Q2 lifted +7 pct to $473 million ($0.73/share) vs $441 million ($0.67/sh) a year earlier as revenue jumped +50 pct to $16.5 billion. This is a clear sign that food inflation will be a problem. The GSCI Agriculture Index gained +2.31 pct on the day.

Early today, Toyota (TM) is guiding higher by about +7.5 pct for its recent profit growth, and BP reported a recent surge of +53 pct in earnings, although the net earnings for the year were still down.

The economic data turned somewhat positive as December factory orders grew +2.3 pct and non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft orders) gained +4.4 pct. That didn’t help the $USD, which dropped -0.18 pct to 75.35.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) jumped +1.0 pct to $90.02/bbl, on the $USD weakness and also apparently due to increased geo-political tensions in Iraq and Nigeria.

$GOLD lost -4.10 (-0.45 pct) to 909.40.

But early today the picture remains blue as most of Asia-Pacific closed down: Australia -1.2 pct), China -1.6 pct, Hong Kong -0.9 pct, and Japan -0.8 pct.

In Europe at 7:00am ET, the FTSE, CAC and DAX were down -0.6 pct, -0.8 pct and -0.5 pct respectively.

March Crude Oil is down about -0.8 pct to 89.25, while the March USD is stronger as the March Euro is down -1.0 pct to 1.4665. And, April Gold -13.30 to 896.00 and March Silver -0.22 to 16.56 are down sharply.

In the Spot market at 7:00am ET, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are down since midnight by -9.67, -0.15, -12 and -8. Silver, plat and pall are a tad stronger from their 6:00am levels though.


Comments & Outlook

My sixth sense tells me that there will be more talk this year about wage and price inflation than economic woes. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, which will bring on additional problems in the credit market, which will hurt the banks and brokers.

Overnight, the interest rate in Australia was bumped on account of these concerns that inflation is creeping to a +4 pct level. And in New Zealand, the wage inflation data yesterday was negative. I hear the same is true in countries like Germany.

So, there is only so much that central bankers can do to stimulate economies that are squeezed by inflation and credit market issues.

I think that there simply has to be more cleaning up of problems at HB&B, and traders have to let this credit contraction cycle play out. So, my recommendation is to relax, sit back and let prices come to you. Avoid bonds, especially at the long end, and switch instead to well-protected income oriented trusts.

I still believe the primary equity market cycle will bottom at 10000 for the DJIA and 2000 for the Nasdaq Composite, to use round numbers. That simply says this Bear market is not yet half played out.

I do think most or all the damage will be done in the 1H08 and that the Techs will be leaders in the 2H of the year.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
TCK 37.260 +2.080 +5.9 2.2M
PTR 155.500 +5.750 +3.8 1.1M
YHOO 29.330 +0.950 +3.3 144.7M
CEO 158.030 +4.810 +3.1 511.5K
IMO 51.350 +1.080 +2.1 359.6K
ADBE 35.210 +0.730 +2.1 7.9M
EXC 78.950 +1.530 +2 4.1M
SU 96.480 +1.600 +1.7 1.7M
CHA 77.200 +1.160 +1.5 232.5K
STO 27.460 +0.390 +1.4 1.6M
CHL 78.610 +1.070 +1.4 2.4M
PDA 46.970 +0.570 +1.2 56.6K
CCJ 33.730 +0.390 +1.2 4.5M
ECA 68.550 +0.770 +1.1 1.7M
RIMM 93.170 +0.930 +1 14.5M
DNA 71.490 +0.680 +1 2.4M
DIS 30.900 +0.240 +0.8 11.8M
TS 41.250 +0.310 +0.8 1.6M
PBR 113.890 +0.830 +0.7 3.6M
VIP 35.980 +0.180 +0.5 2.8M
BMY 24.030 +0.070 +0.3 10.8M
JNJ 63.470 +0.110 +0.2 7.9M
BA 82.900 +0.140 +0.2 3.1M
PG 66.150 +0.100 +0.2 10.3M
GGB 26.750 +0.030 +0.1 1.1M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
CCL 42.030 -2.750 -6.1 7.6M
TGT 54.050 -3.000 -5.3 10.1M
BBBY 30.740 -1.640 -5.1 5.2M
WHR 81.590 -4.130 -4.8 2M
UBS 40.120 -1.920 -4.6 3.6M
CSCO 23.820 -1.120 -4.5 92.1M
ERTS 46.500 -2.120 -4.4 5.6M
GOOG 495.430 -20.470 -4 13.2M
JCP 46.590 -1.910 -3.9 6.5M
BC 18.530 -0.750 -3.9 2.7M
GS 200.800 -6.980 -3.4 9.1M
LEH 63.820 -2.180 -3.3 10.4M
WBK 117.650 -3.700 -3 25.7K
ABX 49.350 -1.550 -3 9.8M
HDB 117.390 -3.610 -3 388.5K
IBN 60.440 -1.820 -2.9 1.6M
LLTC 28.030 -0.830 -2.9 6.8M
NKE 60.740 -1.770 -2.8 3.1M
INTC 21.200 -0.570 -2.6 65.7M
CHRW 54.850 -1.420 -2.5 2M
WAG 35.450 -0.870 -2.4 6.1M
OXPS 26.730 -0.640 -2.3 900.4K
ORCL 20.200 -0.480 -2.3 26.7M
KSS 44.920 -1.010 -2.2 6.6M
GE 35.370 -0.790 -2.2 43.8M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
NONE FOUND.

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
YHOO 29.330 +3.3 144.7M +141
GOOG 495.430 -4 13.2M +57
TCK 37.260 +5.9 2.2M +50
CCJ 33.730 +1.2 4.5M +39
CCL 42.030 -6.1 7.6M +32
CSCO 23.820 -4.5 92.1M +28
BC 18.530 -3.9 2.7M +19

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
YHOO Canaccord Adams --- --- Hold Buy
GG BMO Capital --- --- Market Perform Outperform
KSS Goldman Sachs --- --- Neutral Buy
LEH Punk Ziegel --- --- Sell Buy
GS Punk Ziegel --- --- Sell Mkt Perform
• PREVIOUS SESSION
PTR CSFB --- --- Underperform Neutral
GSK HSBC --- --- Underweight Neutral
BMY SG Cowen --- --- Neutral Outperform
DIS Oppenheimer --- 36.00 Sector Perform Outperform
ERTS Broadpoint --- 55.00 Neutral Buy

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
YHOO ThinkEquity 25.00 31.00 Buy Accumulate
KSS Thomas Weisel 47.00 44.00 Overweight Market Weight
YHOO Soleil --- --- Buy Hold
• PREVIOUS SESSION
YHOO Susquehanna --- --- Positive Neutral
GOOG Jefferies 725.00 600.00 Buy Hold


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
PBR113.0683.2062.1468.91
IBKR35.4782.4774.9473.47Distribution Zone (for 1 days)
COST67.7982.4653.8758.44
ABX50.9082.3467.2651.85Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $51.44, -1.05% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
NOK37.6278.1555.5368.84
GG36.7572.4058.6347.22
KO59.2671.6942.8044.28
TT44.7971.2966.9459.81
VCP30.2571.2855.4971.89
NKE62.5168.8754.4273.56
WMT51.1867.1372.0574.34
CHRW56.2764.6766.2678.76
ECA67.7864.1755.6570.96
BHP73.7263.8155.9078.14
NUE59.5855.9358.1573.81
QCOM42.2055.0563.0570.21
RY51.7554.5556.2976.10
YHOO28.3852.9763.8277.80
LEH66.0050.3963.1074.54
AMAT18.8848.5659.3574.67
TGT57.0546.6258.1273.73
WHR85.7246.0259.2276.43
SWK51.3245.5359.0180.87
DOW39.8942.2053.1278.26
BBBY32.3841.2262.8372.60
WFMI40.7640.0451.0873.15
TM109.8039.4755.2878.22Buy alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2008-01-23 at $99.25, +10.63% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
INFY43.5039.3651.1677.45
JCP48.5032.9857.2978.96
BC19.2827.7055.5287.51
KSS45.9325.2247.9871.12

At least one RSI value <30:
rsi
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX19.2217.5930.2745.77
UBS42.0424.3727.2145.96
SNDK27.5524.3723.7755.51Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $25.45, +8.25% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
KSS45.9325.2247.9871.12
BC19.2827.7055.5287.51
WAG36.3227.9147.6769.82
DELL20.3528.8423.0142.92Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-24 at $21.09, -3.51% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
KB65.8729.1135.8647.84
GSK47.0131.9633.4529.27
GFI14.0833.9434.1024.27
ADBE34.4834.9520.1729.69
CCJ33.3435.7031.3723.17
GOOG515.9043.5125.3123.00
PG66.0550.4929.1741.41


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AA 34.08 -0.20 -0.58% 8.29% 17.11% -2.27% -5.67% -11.62% -5.80% 5.06%
BA 82.90 0.14 0.17% 6.83% 5.74% -3.40% -4.29% -15.20% -20.47% -7.94%
C 29.22 -0.47 -1.58% 5.68% 19.51% 0.69% 1.04% -22.55% -36.09% -46.54%
MCD 53.88 -0.34 -0.63% 5.50% 2.82% -5.56% -7.26% -8.71% 11.05% 20.97%
DIS 30.90 0.24 0.78% 5.21% 8.38% -0.74% -2.95% -8.90% -8.85% -12.17%
T 38.16 -0.12 -0.31% 4.84% 5.68% -6.68% -6.93% -5.59% -3.27% 0.10%
INTC 21.20 -0.57 -2.62% 4.48% 11.58% -6.48% -16.37% -20.90% -11.33% -0.14%
MMM 80.57 -0.64 -0.79% 4.04% 7.56% -1.46% -2.59% -5.09% -7.98% 9.07%
CAT 70.95 -0.81 -1.13% 4.02% 12.96% 3.53% 0.45% -5.10% -10.14% 8.74%
GM 27.57 -1.41 -4.87% 3.92% 17.22% 16.58% 12.95% -25.47% -13.95% -16.43%
IBM 107.93 -1.15 -1.05% 2.81% 4.38% 6.72% 3.09% -5.81% -3.54% 8.83%
WMT 50.07 -1.11 -2.17% 2.79% 5.23% 9.51% 6.76% 13.31% 10.00% 4.14%
PFE 23.63 0.04 0.17% 2.78% 4.98% 3.50% 3.14% -0.17% 0.51% -11.83%
HON 60.48 0.27 0.45% 2.65% 9.37% 3.77% 0.97% 1.90% 3.95% 31.02%
GE 35.37 -0.79 -2.18% 1.87% 3.09% -1.86% -3.78% -12.30% -7.07% -2.48%
DD 45.64 -0.31 -0.67% 1.78% 6.89% 5.21% 4.34% -4.84% -1.53% -9.17%
JPM 46.22 -2.03 -4.21% 1.43% 17.31% 12.92% 9.60% 7.11% 5.89% -9.25%
PG 66.15 0.10 0.15% 1.32% -1.49% -8.15% -8.52% -4.89% 5.20% 1.24%
VZ 38.61 -0.14 -0.36% 1.31% -1.23% -9.37% -10.65% -13.00% -9.68% 1.15%
AIG 55.43 -0.30 -0.54% 1.24% 6.49% 0.24% -1.55% -6.24% -10.07% -19.75%
HD 29.35 -1.10 -3.61% 0.72% 11.68% 17.59% 12.41% -3.45% -18.90% -28.12%
JNJ 63.47 0.11 0.17% 0.63% -4.25% -3.60% -3.70% -2.02% 4.82% -4.67%
HPQ 44.06 -0.36 -0.81% 0.59% 0.71% -6.00% -11.54% -15.92% -7.07% 4.73%
AXP 47.66 -1.94 -3.91% 0.55% 9.29% -3.01% -6.62% -18.42% -17.10% -18.05%
UTX 74.05 -0.07 -0.09% 0.43% 8.82% -1.29% -1.54% -2.11% 0.16% 8.90%
XOM 85.44 -0.51 -0.59% 0.36% 0.42% -7.21% -8.63% -2.83% 4.09% 13.11%
MO 75.07 -0.37 -0.49% 0.08% -0.46% 0.23% 0.19% 4.10% 12.72% 15.56%
KO 58.63 -0.63 -1.06% -1.31% -3.47% -5.21% -4.03% -3.11% 10.04% 21.54%
MRK 47.47 1.49 3.24% -3.61% -10.97% -16.50% -17.26% -15.29% -5.61% 6.13%
MSFT 30.19 -0.26 -0.85% -7.73% -8.54% -12.19% -14.28% -18.54% 4.25% 0.00%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (