At the close, the DJIA (+0.38 pct +46.9 to 12,247), S&P 500 (+0.79 pct +10.46 to 1336.91) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.63 pct +14.23 to 2293.03) were up modestly.

The sector winners were Energy (XLE +1.97 pct) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY +1.93 pct), while the losers were Healthcare (XLV -0.39 pct) and Utilities (XLU -0.53 pct).

Surprisingly, the Oils ($XOI +0.91 pct), Oil Services ($OSX +1.34 pct) and Nat Gas ($XNG +0.90 pct) were not close to the larger gain in the XLE, so maybe the ETF was being pumped.

But, to explain the jump in the XLY, go no further than the Retailers ($RLX +3.70 pct), and within that group, look at the Cara 100 list winners on the day. Four of the top five leaders were: JC Penny -JCP (+8.5 pct), Kohl’s -KSS (+6.8 pct), Target -TGT (+6.1 pct) and Bed, Bath & Beyond -BBBY (+4.6 pct), which had very strong session gains, underlying the extreme volatility of markets today.

The Healthcare sector was pulled down by (Cara 100) GlaxoSmithKline –GSK (-7.6 pct) on huge volume.

On the earnings front, PepsiCo (PEP) 4Q net income fell to $1.26 billion vs $1.83 billion a year earlier, apparently due to the year earlier higher profits from a tax benefit.

On the economics data front, January chain-store sales reported a very soft increase in sales, particularly for Wal-Mart (+0.5 pct growth, but expected to be much higher). Although consumer spending weakened this winter, Americans still cranked up more debt, up in December +$4.5 billion to $2.520 trillion. Weekly jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 2, dropped -22,000 to 356,000. Pending home sales in December fell -1.5 pct, and are down -24.2 pct since December 2006 according to the NAR pending sales index.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) went positive, and closed the session up +0.97/bbl (+1.11 pct) to 88.11, largely on news of disruptions in Nigerian oil exports.

The $USD jumped +0.94 pct to 76.88, surging after the Bank of England cut its target rate from 5.50 pct to 5.25 pct. The British Pound dropped -1.03 pct to 194.08.

Interestingly, although the European Central Bank failed to make a change in policy, the Euro ($XEU) dropped -1.19 pct to 144.63.

Gold ($GOLD +0.55 pct +5.00/oz to 910) and silver advanced despite the strong Dollar.

US Treasury instruments were sold down sharply. The 30-year $USB dropped -1.31 pct to 117.81, while the yield ($TYX) gained +2.88 pct to 4.500 pct. The 10-year yield ($TNX) jumped +3.38 pct to 3.736.

Earlier, the Nikkei closed up +0.82 pct to 13,207. European shares sunk with the BoE rate cut; the DAX lost -1.66 pct to 6733.7, the CAC -1.92 pct to 4723.8, and the FTSE -2.58 pct to 5724.1.

This morning at 7:25am ET, the spot gold is up +3.32 to 913.00 and silver +0.13 to 16.93. Spot platinum is down -9.

The March contracts for the Euro are up +0.12 pct to 1.4463, Crude +0.49 pct to 88.60, and DJIA down -84. US Treasury yields are down and Bond prices up.

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Comments & Outlook

The Bear continues to make a mess of portfolios that are bullish and haven’t been protected.

Retail traders can easily move entirely to cash, or at least into a substantial cash position, which I have recommended. Large capital pools cannot or do not do that. But this is a good time to look carefully at the fixed income market in Canadian business and energy trusts, particularly on days and weeks where energy prices spike down, providing lower prices and higher yield opportunities of securities in this realm.

Also, the Retailers ($RLX) may soon run out of steam and the short-term oriented traders, including the momentum-based algo traders of the large capital pools, may decide to take profits.

As to the signs of a technical bottom that many guru’s have pointed to, clearly I’m not reading the leafs from the same cup.

Speaking of Leafs, the Canadiens in Montreal got to see a good hockey team in action last evening. Not. At least the Leafs rebounded from an 8-0 rout at home to a not-good Florida team that also had many injured players. Beating the Habs 4-2 helps keep the faith.

That’s what life’s all about… keeping the faith. All of us need something to believe in. Even Mitt Romney believes in holding onto his money. And equity market players have placed their faith in the Bear.

Have a good day. I will be in meetings. And then down to the Duke for a beer.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
PBR	111.60	94.46	60.51	59.11
ATVI	26.29	75.19	55.67	48.99
TT	44.45	72.02	66.57	49.77
ABX	48.11	70.04	58.53	38.44	Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $51.44, -6.47% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
YHOO	29.04	53.81	66.01	75.17
WHR	91.39	52.68	64.21	75.32
TGP	30.20	40.77	51.81	73.84

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
SBUX	18.53	15.85	27.78	40.03
SNDK	26.56	22.43	23.06	46.93	Buy alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-01-31 at $25.45, +4.36% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
UBS	37.92	23.81	23.03	26.34	Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
WAG	34.74	24.07	37.69	48.56
GSK	42.39	24.29	23.71	12.78	Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
HBC	71.75	24.83	25.20	26.83	Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
LLTC	27.28	27.31	21.60	42.70
DELL	19.43	27.77	23.52	36.44	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-02-07 at $19.43, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
BC	17.87	27.86	45.79	53.97
PAYX	32.11	28.03	21.02	37.61
KB	62.17	29.34	35.55	37.13	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-02-07 at $62.17, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
ADBE	32.62	30.38	21.34	23.49
GFI	13.47	32.15	30.19	24.57
ERTS	44.78	32.25	21.79	30.90
BMY	23.34	32.35	26.22	41.03
GOL	18.83	33.61	29.60	38.28
CSCO	23.38	33.69	18.18	36.35
DB	111.11	34.48	25.30	42.19
TS	37.30	34.97	27.44	33.38
CCJ	31.98	35.14	26.76	22.59
STO	26.20	39.45	28.61	40.08
OXPS	24.47	41.76	25.83	22.55
TOT	69.76	41.91	28.21	26.68
GOOG	504.95	42.42	23.11	28.27
NTES	17.14	43.26	29.93	24.98
DEO	79.37	43.41	24.49	44.19
CVX	78.74	43.55	25.73	29.12
XOM	81.89	47.71	28.18	33.46
PG	65.77	49.05	28.36	44.19
SLW	14.50	54.20	42.11	26.41
MBT	77.38	56.00	34.96	23.73
IBN	56.70	57.55	43.33	28.33

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DIS	31.72	0.22	0.70%	6.30%	8.52%	5.17%	-0.38%	-5.31%	-8.19%	-10.60%
MCD	54.46	0.73	1.36%	1.64%	0.85%	-5.24%	-6.27%	-6.71%	9.51%	21.78%
PG	65.77	0.46	0.70%	0.53%	-0.57%	-9.33%	-9.04%	-5.26%	0.83%	2.00%
DD	45.18	0.44	0.98%	0.00%	-0.59%	0.89%	3.29%	-4.18%	-4.68%	-11.43%
HON	58.77	0.10	0.17%	-0.51%	4.57%	2.03%	-1.89%	-0.46%	-0.17%	26.20%
MMM	79.12	-0.06	-0.08%	-0.67%	4.48%	-1.33%	-4.34%	-4.98%	-10.12%	5.99%
JNJ	62.81	-0.24	-0.38%	-0.71%	-1.10%	-7.36%	-4.70%	-1.72%	1.18%	-4.54%
MRK	45.70	-0.01	-0.02%	-0.87%	-7.79%	-24.46%	-20.34%	-15.68%	-11.49%	3.25%
KO	58.45	0.74	1.28%	-0.93%	-2.39%	-10.45%	-4.32%	-2.52%	7.33%	21.69%
AA	32.78	0.37	1.14%	-0.94%	6.39%	4.90%	-9.27%	-12.35%	-10.46%	1.96%
WMT	49.84	1.01	2.07%	-1.77%	1.90%	6.27%	6.27%	13.45%	5.91%	2.59%
MO	74.10	1.34	1.84%	-2.23%	-1.05%	-6.45%	-1.11%	2.95%	7.05%	14.83%
UTX	71.47	-0.40	-0.56%	-2.46%	-1.50%	-0.68%	-4.97%	-4.02%	-3.61%	4.32%
PFE	22.67	0.08	0.35%	-2.95%	-1.65%	-5.23%	-1.05%	-2.79%	-6.90%	-14.52%
GE	34.23	0.03	0.09%	-3.20%	-1.21%	-4.39%	-6.88%	-12.41%	-13.30%	-5.18%
CAT	68.32	0.34	0.50%	-3.76%	4.70%	1.62%	-3.27%	-7.17%	-15.07%	4.08%
T	37.00	0.60	1.65%	-3.87%	3.50%	-5.13%	-9.76%	-4.29%	-8.55%	-0.43%
BA	79.75	-0.16	-0.20%	-4.12%	2.74%	-0.68%	-7.93%	-17.69%	-22.74%	-11.73%
IBM	102.34	-1.25	-1.21%	-4.45%	-4.27%	4.10%	-2.24%	-7.87%	-9.86%	2.81%
JPM	45.11	1.39	3.18%	-4.83%	0.33%	12.05%	6.97%	6.79%	-0.51%	-11.91%
VZ	36.95	0.25	0.68%	-4.84%	-3.35%	-13.00%	-14.49%	-14.27%	-14.29%	-2.99%
INTC	20.05	0.13	0.65%	-4.98%	-3.09%	-11.87%	-20.91%	-25.46%	-16.91%	-6.79%
C	26.70	-0.22	-0.82%	-5.22%	-2.31%	-2.87%	-7.68%	-20.08%	-45.05%	-51.41%
XOM	81.89	0.45	0.55%	-5.22%	-4.78%	-9.58%	-12.43%	-6.09%	-4.45%	9.49%
AXP	46.45	0.58	1.26%	-5.45%	-1.40%	-5.36%	-8.99%	-16.11%	-23.13%	-20.84%
AIG	51.65	-0.45	-0.86%