WSJ - Feb 26
FDIC to Add Staff as
Bank Failures Loom

"Regulators are bracing for well over 100 bank failures in the next 12 to 24 months, with concentrations in Rust Belt states like Michigan and Ohio, and the states that are suffering severe housing-market problems like California, Florida, and Georgia," said Jaret Seiberg, Washington policy analyst for financial-services firm Stanford Group.

Personal income and spending above expectations:

http://tinyurl.com/2rsg8m

Here's the key takeaway, imo:

"But inflation is eating into the consumer's buying power. After inflation is discounted, consumer spending was flat in January and in December. This will pull GDP growth down in the first quarter unless there are notable offsets elsewhere."

re PDAC. OK I'm an outsider and poor guesser. What does PDAC stand for? And for those of us far from Toronto, are there any plans to publish minutes or anything? I really am interested in trying to figure out who the good junior prospects are. There are so many of them, it seems very hard to sort out

re bill's comment in the daily report-

"Long-dated US Treasuries were heavily bid as yields collapsed, pushing more pressure down on income-oriented investors who no longer can earn enough from bond yields to cover the destruction of wealth through inflation."

also craig's last comment: "Money in MM....how can it make 4% if the USD fell 3% in the last week?

Do you pay taxes on the 4%?

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 29, 2008 8:57 AM

a) it doesn't hit people until it hits, but we were never in possession of the kind of wealth the sell-side (here referring to any business at all) had us believe...buying a home with zero down, watching prices spike, borrowing on that phantom equity to buy new vehicles to park in the driveway of the new house->i'm sure the drop back to earth was painful for many...as craig points out->so your portfolio is up 50% the past 5 years? what if adjusted for the decline in the dollar the past five years?

b) no need to rush into the ToG- last dance is now playing out, although it took several months longer than i anticipated...same may apply to the ToG-> RRPIX setting up a new buying opportunity...set for back-to-back declines in treasury yields as TLT spikes again this morning...

The carry trade looks like it's dying the last 24 hours. I wish it a quick death. The thing has been keeping our markets up without any relation to rhyme or reason for weeks.

let me rephrase that- either a 3-month delay for the last dance, or they stretched it out...either way, the kind of moves i was expecting are now clearly displayed on charts for commodities and international indexes...

onlineaces
Just look at all your news feeds lately. Small community banks are going to take a financial loss before the huge banks do. Every day there is another community bank in trouble. People will never know the exact number of defaults or the monetary effect on the depositors.

Street.COM

Struggling California bank Fremont General(FMT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) on late Thursday said it may sell itself as it faces a serious liquidity crunch.

The Brea, Calif.-based savings and loan said as of Dec. 31, it had $21.1 million to address "ongoing operating expenses, debt service and inter-company settlements" It said it is working with investment banks Credit Suisse and Sandler O'Neill to "develop and implement strategic initiatives" to address the cash shortfall, a process that could lead to a sale, raising capital or restructuring debt.

Fremont said it could be forced to write down additional assets and bulk up reserves, which would further erode the $448.6 million in total equity capital it held at year's end. The bank said because of an ongoing review by its auditors, it would delay filing its 10-K due Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Fremont, which last year consented to a cease-and-desist order from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that forced it out of residential subprime lending, agreed in May to sell its commercial loan business to iStar Financial(SFI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) for $1.9 billion in cash.

Fremont previously said it was selling its residential real estate business to Ellington Capital Management.

Fremont shares were down 28 cents, or 10.6%, to $2.36 in recent after-hours action Thursday.

Good morning. Sorry, I'm running late today.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

DELL - to Outperform @ Friedman Billings

Price Target Raised:

GS - $200 - $201 @ Punk, Ziegel & Co.

Price Target Lowered:

DELL - $28 to $25 @ Needham & Co.
DELL - $30 to $23 @ Caris & Co.
KSS - $54 to $53 @ UBS
KSS - $47 to $45 @ Jefferies & Co.
LEH - $71 to $65 @ Punk, Ziegel & Co.

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Re: PCAC is the Prospector's And Developer's Association Conference. Its one of the largest mining conventions in the world.

http://www.pdac.ca/pdac/conv/

Since late 2006, junior precious metals shares have been undervalued. But some of the base metals prices have been very resilient, such as copper.

Anyone know why MNTA is up 20% this morning? Not that I'm complaining. :^)

GOLD:

Fortis hedging and financial gold report
February 2008

http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/FHB0208.pdf

i may have read the PDAC site wrong but it says its $650 to attend for non-corporate members?

email sent to jock and pat, id like to attend at least on sunday and im looking forward to meeting everyone.

J

Capitalism in an Apocalyptic Mood

The US government might yet pull the economy out of the jaws of recession through the short-term fix of raising spending on the military or the related disaster capitalism complex. But one way or another, the forces making for long-term global stagnation are now too heavy to be shaken off by the equivalent of mouth-to-mouth resuscitation.

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4996

Cara 100

5 up
KSS TS NTES DELL and YHOO

95 down
not going to list them all

Apparently the number of people just walking away from their mortgages because of negative equity is becoming a bigger problem, according to WSJ.

"Are you stressed out about your mortgage payments?
Do you have little or no equity in your home?
Have you had trouble trying to sell your house?
Is your home sinking under the waves of the real estate crash?
What if you could live payment free for up to 8 months or more and walk away without owing a penny?

Unshackle yourself today from a losing investment and use our proven method to Walk Away."

http://www.youwalkaway.com/

No affiliation :-)

I closed out my FXP @ 86.7 and EEV @ $76.7. Will be looking to reopen before end of the day.

Nice job, Billy!

jk484,

Thanks for the report.

Good valuable information.

Do you know where I can register to receive this regularly?

Thanks!

LOL- i see we have a new daytrader on the site....congrats, billy..

take a look at the spreads on GBO...guess that's what happens with trading volumes of a few thousand shares a day...

maromatics,

you are wellcom

I don't know if you could subscribe, but you can always go to the main site, http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk and you will find it in the publication section.

OK, i'm following you out...FXP off at 87.09...

2nd

My QID & FXP are blowing last Friday #s out the door. I might be able to buy my way out of the "MV" now.

isaiah- take 'em off now...

SILVER: The Silver BooK

This might also be of interest to caraistas

http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/FSB080100%20(inclds.%20amends).pdf

closing shorts. Gotta go and buy more batteries for my miners helment to grope around the abyss here...net 2200 declining issues...over 6:1 to the downside...now what is going to happen the rest of the day...its only 7:30!!!

BillySundance: Nice overnight call..I may have to reevaluate my overnight hold rule during OB/OS conditions...sigh..so much money to be made while I was asleep...WASTED TIME !!

2nd

I cleared out the FXP.... but my gut tells me I should of held onto this great white whale.

Fortis Asian metals monthly
February 2008

Given the continuing background market turmoil in January, base metals
continued to ride out the storm comparatively well, thanks largely to some
unexpected supply disruptions. The move by the US Federal Reserve to slash
interest rates to 3%, plus the promised fiscal stimulus of a $150bn injection into
US pockets, encouraged hopes that maybe the landing could be cushioned. But
new lows for indices on employment and business activity in early February
point to the US already being in a recession – which should damp down base
metals’ demand in months ahead.

http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/FAM0208.pdf

Thanks for the encouragement.

Looks like I sold both a bit too early but I am trying to look for the quick moves instead of watching the churn around resistance areas. Better to exit when uncertainty becomes too high and re-enter when clarity returns.

Still holding an underwater DUG position but I think commodities in general are short-term over bought and could be in for a correction next week after the window dressing is done.

Anyone holding FNC?

Mid November our host said:

"I do believe that McFaulds will be the next huge Canadian mining camp, and traders with a long-term commitment would be well advised to buy a little on pull-backs and sell a little after Bull runs. Take your pick: NOT is the one drilling, FNC probably has the best property."

Isaiah, I took profit in FXP, too. The hourly is still in a downtrend and I'd rather book profit before another Friday "surprise". If it doesn't retreat, I'll look for a break through the trendline resistance.

Closed SKF and SRS, net on both of 6 points, up from -15. Did well on holding while they were down, did poorly on the entry points. With these you WILL make money if you can wait until they hit 100. It's the end of the month, and I think we are going to see a bounce today, even though its a train wreck right now.

number2son

Thanks .... if you can let me know where you think that trendline of resistance may be at.

Closing 1/2 position in SKF

And 1/2 positions in DUG and DXD that I put on yesterday...

Looking for a bounce around 12330 in DJIA...

If it breaks that level quickly, then 12230 comes into play...

ISIAH: ITs the rising bottoms line on the daily chart for the famous triangle-- connect intraday lows.from 1/18...thats one way...but we just kissed it..its around $SPX 1341 area

Don't like the liquidity on GBO.

Interesting thought on the Chinese yuan/reminbi which has been appreciating lately at a faster pace. Believe this may be a strategic move. Inflation in China came in around 7.25%, most of which is food inflation. Food inflation alone was 6%.

It appears China is fighting food inflation by appreciating its currency and by exporting inflationary costs to U.S. Time will tell if this is their strategy. Can't help but think of Wal-Mart which ranks as the 7th largest importer from China (among all countries).

EEMTRADER...

Thanks!

ISIAH : USe a 60 min or 30 minute chart...it may be clearer...market just reversed from that trendline...its math and statisitics..how else do you program computers? :)

IPSU

Holding options on this one...I see a triangle with a breakout to the upside soon.

2nd - I followed you in to FXP the other day at 86...I decided to hold through the dip and have been rewarded, but it hasn't been easy...watching something you buy go down 5/share in 2 hrs is gut wrenching...but i thought you were right, and i think your gut still is...even if you aren't, I'm going with your gut, and mine :)

LOL, after all the noise and hype and volatility, SKF is right back where it was a week ago.

Every day, I get a new lesson in trading. Even if it is a remedial lesson. As an example, I got played by SKF this past week like a fiddle, buying near last Friday's top and getting stopped out near Wednesday's low.

My big mistake was buying when all the oscillators argued against it. Sure, the news on Friday overrode any technical indicators. But it was still a mistake.

In software engineering we have a concept called an "anti-pattern", which is basically an example of how not to write a piece of code, and it is something that serves as a counter example to a best practice. Well, in trading the same goes for making certain trading decisions. Take a look at the hourly chart for SKF last Friday and you will see that 1. price was well above its 20 and 50 emas, 2. The STO was above 80, 3. MACD hist had flattened above the 0 line.

Do you trade this or wait for a better entry? I made the trade and paid the price.

And then I closed my position on Wednesday when these same signals were indicating a bottom. MACD hist was showing a nice bullish divergence, and the STO was below 20 and rising.

How did I recover? I recognized the same signals in SDS as a buying opportunity, and I took the proceeds from my sale in FXP and bought SDS. So I was able to recover ground. Once again I learn that patience and good money management are the keys to success. Until I can apply those principles consistently, I will continue to be a mediocre trader.

I hope this helps others.

Try the dry ice vein conversion. Regular ice is insufficient in these times. :>)

Number2Son: Might want to use XLF to determine 'optimum' rules based entry..tighter spreads and volume than SKF...works better for me when I look at the 'Natural ETF' rather than the derivative...but with those spreads...trade execution matters on orders.

Nibbling and licking on GS..

http://headlinecharts.blog.com/2795067/

this is a good blog...here is the weekly currency and commodity report.

Agreed EEM....I watch both XLF and DJIA for overall trend. The SKF will drive a person nuts with the spreads/disconnects.

CNBC just said if the DOW closes lower today it will be 4 straight months, a record since the great depression. Just wondering if the interventionists will stage a buying spree at 3pm, just to make sure mom & pop go home on a happy spin?

I'd like some advice on when to exit a position. I appreciate the discussion here and like your opinions.

I have a tendency to enter positions a bit early, and to lose a bit in the first month or two or three. I like 2 to 6 month time frames, but don't mind holding for 2 to 4 years for a distressed company. Here are some examples of recent entries and exits. (Incidentally, this isn't a fatal condition, because I'm at the exact same NAV as when I exited all positions and went to cash last November.)

I bought AES in 2001 or 2 when it was in the 1.26 to 5 dollar range, and sold at around 19. It subsequently went to 23 for a few days, but is now at 18 plus change. So this was a good execution.

I bought various gold miners and GLD when gold was at about $530 to $600, and freaked out when the dollar price of gold hit $780, and sold everything. I feel like I sold way too early, but peering from the heights of $780 back then, this seemed prudent. It turned out not to be.

Then with NOSOF, I bought at about USD $5.00, saw it rise, then fall to low 4s, and recently sold at $6.28 only to see it rise to 6.96 during the day, and now over $7. I feel like an impatient person because I didn't wait to the end of the day, with a higher bid.

I don't like "day trading." I prefer to take a view on a short or medium term trend, and then wait a few weeks or months.

But I seem to exit early. Any suggestions as to what I am doing wrong? Thanks for your advice and POVs.

I currently hold only cash, FXP and EEV. The FXP and EEV are, believe it or not, medium term positions (2 or 4 months.)

Thanks.

I think the powers that be want the market to at least chop sideways into mid March, so they can offload the biggest IPO in history at a decent price. They are going to have a hell of a time doing it as the debt markets are coming apart as investors flee from risk. Apparently some of the absolute junk is starting to trade so mark-to-fiction for some of these bonds will not be possible. They will have to mark to market.

Here is a chart I have been watching for a while regarding the financials. It is a ratio of the banking index to the S&P:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BKX:$SPX&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p22079723874&a=100379724

It has a wonderfully predictable curve to it.

Thanks, EEMTrader -

That's an excellent suggestion. SKF is a pretty wild beast to ride.

Fed Reserve meeting 3/18 and Visa IPO 3/19. Makes me believe 3/18 will be an up day.

isaiah- one reason i'm hesitant to push the ultrashorts this morning is the incentive fund mgrs have to report portfolio % numbers that outperform the indexes...of course, the indexes they use for comparison are down quite a bit also->if i had to play it by ear, i'd be looking for ways to pump up the companies i own while simultaneously hoping the indexes continue to drop...

2nd_ave

Thanks for the heads up. I understand your reasoning.

A short time later I dumped QID...So now I'm flat.

Remember last Friday's #....believe it or not today's was 10% better. Not bad... even if I did let go of the "Great White Whale" a bit early.

Looks like we may trend a bit higher into the 3 pm ET time frame. I don't think we get over 1360 before then but I think they will try to "wedge the crow bar under the roof" again. Looks a lot like what I thought yesterday - winners runnings, losers hurting as fundies window dress.

isaiah- LOL you picked the right mammal->they come up for a blow-off top, take in air, and dive back down...

For any traders that want to put there reputations on the line for all to see please check out Covestor.com

It's a fairly new social networking investor site where your trades are tracked and performance is put out for all to see.

Covestor partners with Yodolee so if your brokerage is one of the one's listed your portfolio can automatically be imported.

If it's not listed you will need to upload a recent brokerage statement so initial positions can be added.

Worry warts may want to read the privacy policy bit I didn't see anything in there that's any different from any other site.

Your position values are not posted just positions and performance tracking.

I have decided to place the wife's 401k that I "toy" with online and put it out there.

http://www.covestor.com/mbr/geckojb

You can track anyone you want. I think it could be a fun excercise and I would love to see some people put their cohones out there.

Let us know if you decide to do it.

Allen:
"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!" ... "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn...."
From "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre

Could they be saving the AMBAC deal news until last ditch support is reached? Like last Friday all over again?

GE's weekly chart sure looks terrible, but its holding support for now.

Allen : RE: Entries & Exits, see Bill Cara's discussion on RSI and MACD or pick up Elder's Entries and Exits, lots of techicals here.

Fundamentals helps somene ounderstand and sound intelligent, consistent execution is what matters.

PErsonally...which rules someone follows, and how consistent they are, really depends on WHO they are.

Entries and Exits amy help you navigate the markets...but...if someone does not know themselves well and adopt the mental beliefs and habits of effective traders / investors...they are setting themselves up. No $100 book or $10,000 seminar can change someone when they are not ready, or stubborn . Infinite ways to make money, only one way to lose it.

If you know the adversary and know yourself, you need not fear the outcome of one hundred battles.

If you know yourself but not the adversary, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.

If you know neither the adversary nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
-Sun Tzu

That applies to war and the equity curve. :)

OK I have used up my quota for the day...good luck to you.

As a note the Covestor site doesn't include cash. It just tracks the performance of your postions so if you were 95% in cash and had a 5% position in something it would just track the position.

RDR/(allen)- i absolutely believe in livermore's writing->all of his writing is based on experience (and no one would be posting his stuff 3 generations later if it didn't hold up)...but everything in context...every 'axiom' in one context has an opposing axiom in another...in this case, sitting tight applies correctly to long positions in a bull market (gold/miners/energy), and i agree it's tough to hang onto positions making parabolic moves (maybe 'uncommon' can be interpreted as 'unreal?')...

Will it track the contents of kaimu's sock drawer?

Sock warmers are not tracked.

going long (ie, adding to) SNDK/WFMI...

Come on in 2nd...the water is ciy cold but bracing....added to SNDK.

And yes, THAT's shrinkage.....LOL!

didn't know kaimu had a sock drawer...do they need socks in hawaii...

Heading out to a golf show . . . then on to Massachusetts for the weekend.

Caristas at PDAC, thank you for your inquiries and work. Have a great weekend!

Lisdexia kicking in again...that's ICY cold.

Hi,

Best wishes for the Caraistas @ PDAC this weekend.

Wish I was there too.

Enjoy.

Cheers!

today's action in FMT reminiscent of AHM last august...

RRPIX- anyone waiting for an under-18 entry should get one today (keep in mind the early cut-off time)...expect treasury yields to keep trending down, so the ultimate low may have a 16-handle...but opening a position at the close (guessing 17.70) not the worst place to start...could also trade the swings...

Geckojb: Stocktickr.com tracks trader performance...not social networking site..just anlayzes trades made and linked to the trading platform...very useful real time learning tool...

Gotta have cajones to face the truth...

as far as ahving someone else see our trade on the other site...ncovestor..not sure what the benefit will be...understand why asset manager will use it....

but for fast real time trading..would not want to load my monthly statements and track trades daily..cant see where it tells you to link electronically to the broker...that will be worth it...looks like more for investors and maybe swing traders..? Or did i not read it completely?

FYI, some of the RSI numbers in the daily report were using day-old data. I've fixed that now. Sorry for any inconveniences.

EEMtrader RE: Covestor:

Once you sign up you have to be authorized. Email will come for you to confirm and autorize. Once that happens you link up. I believe the link will update your portfolio each time you log on but I cannot be sure since my wife's broker is not listed thus I do need to enter trades. Most brokers that are used here I think are listed. Since in this account I do more swing or trend trading I don't have to feel the need to enter trades manually non stop. But again you can link up in most cases.

Here's a quick blurb about security:

Yes. We are obsessed with security. Our secure broker link uses the same technology as the leading online banking sites and global financial institutions.
( http://corporate.yodlee.com/customers/clients.htm )

The link is used only for purposes of populating and updating your Covestor account. The security infrastructure ensures your details are kept fully secure. (See our Security Policy.)
( http://corporate.yodlee.com/technology/security_overview.htm )

I don't expect many if any will sign up as some may not want to know the emperor has no clothes :O (Sarcasm)

I think if we can get a few people to just try it we might build a nice community.

So how about it can I get some of you in here to give Covestor a shot? If you decide it's too much work then fogettaboutit.

Oh and for those that think they are the cat's meow in trading: Covestor will allow you to make money if you're that good!

"When do I start making money from sharing trades"?
Covestor plans within the next 12 months to introduce the capability for members to generate a data fee from each account that tracks your investments.

Geckojb: I signed up for Stoctickr for 3 months when using cybertrader...eye opening experience...and very educational.actually changed when and how I trade among other things...better than hiring a trading coach which was my other alternative.

since migrating to sspro on schwab I have not continued..

Not sure the benefit of signing up for covestor for me..it benefits them...but...whats in it for the trader? I am not in the business of managing others money or have a blog that I am trying to drive traffic to...like some others use this blog for.

I post here as it remids me of fundamentals and to clear my thoughts. Ultimately learning on your own is time consuming but it may stick longer

EEM: It's a community thing. Ask yourself why not? What do you have to lose? If it's time then you can make that call after trying it right? Like I said I think the downside is that some will not want to put there performance on the line and that's about it.

I am all for accountability..otherwise I wouldnt have a journal..or tried stocktickr..

The downside is as charles kirk points out...when he posts his trades...it effects how he trades and answering emails from members..and this is from a guy who accepts donation and moving more of his 'free content' and his own insight to the member section. so monetizing the time and effort matters..

Beside he also found out...the members results werent like his ...this is from memory and reading his self revealing thoughts on migrating to managing a $1 million portfolio.

Well if you turn out to be another Charles Kirk I promise I'll pay you to see your portfolio.

Re: Noront, Kaimu

On February 26th /08 Genuity Capital analyst Michael Gray released an update on Noront Resources

http://please-dont-take-me-seriously.blogspot.com/

Kaimu, thank you for recommending this stock. It has been my best performer.

I would be more than interested in the Aussie stocks you referred to yesterday after you finish your allocation.

geckojb- i see where you're coming from, but i can think of several downsides to covestor:

a) it immediately switches you to a competitive platform- can't speak for anyone else, but that would seriously hinder my trading...it'd be like the difference between spotting an opportunity while you're wading through a crowd at the casino (all fun, no pressure) to signing up for a poker tournament (all pressure, no fun)...
b) the larger your following, the more your trades suffer from having to consider (like it or not) being in the position of managing OPM...
c) some people are competitive to the point of identifying with their performance...if they go through a bad stretch, and it's in the public eye, they will effectively be taken out...

i understand for some posters here trading is serious work and maybe even a job...in which case the possibility of adding income via posting of trades might make sense...

AHAHAHAHAHAH..GEckojb..you crack me up...the last person i want to impress is someone I would probably never meet....hahahaha..that is funny...I dont know what he started with..but I hear he does well..and am very happy for him.

I am keeping mine from going below $1 million while I move up the learning curve.

nothing personal...but there are limits to internet aquaintances ...especially here where they pry and buzz for all to see your infor if they dont like you or the way you come across...I am a guest...here so willing to play by house rules.but not here to impress...people I hardly know and will likely never meet.

SPY on the verge of breaking uptrend line. That would not be good for the bulls...but there is horizontal support below. Could we see a last hour rally to close above trendline?

5 min chart shows last couple down bars with increasing volume.

I suppose we can all make up excuses for reasons not to do something. Are the real fears or one's just made up? Who knows until you try it. Again, if it changed up your thinking, strategy or whatever there's this little button you push to notify Covestor to drop your account.

I really can see why people wouldn't do this.

EEm: the past week or so I have read your postings I noticed some code speak or under-tones. I couldn't figure them out. You have made reference several times to others tracking you or something? Not sure I ever followed.

Still holding DUG, SDS, FXP from 2 days ago and will over the weekend and maybe longer if the market continues its fall. I thought they were good deals after they fell so much when 2nd got in to them. I wish I would have bought more of FXP @ $81 instead of a nibble, but I was waiting for $80...

GEckojb: I was referring to two things.

1) The first minutes of entering a trade is crucial for me and dont want to post and truly never know who is reading the posts here. Otherwise UBS wont be asking Bill to remove the reports which only benefit UBS credibility and quality of research.

2) Posting that guys internet web addy , though he talks funny and kinda rude as well as questioning Vinod's reasons for the way he comes across turns me off. Didnt think it was anyones business and doing no harm that I can see.

But its not my blog.

When spring returns I am out..I am HUGE on financial privacy.

XLF just pooped below support market sell off accelerating.

According to BNN, MBIA is writing very little new business (duh), and yet its the stock trading at $13. Regardless of the endless bailout talks, this company is not going to make a profit any time soon, if ever again. Shouldn't this stock's price be closer to zero than where it is now?

Should and will are very different, but accordingly, I have been holding puts. In the short term this is a risky position (bailouts, SWF, etc, here and there).

let's try to avoid going down that road and stay on the highway...we all know musicians or ballplayers who get together to play/listen/encourage/enjoy eachother's company...and that's all it is...try to get them on stage or into a competitive situation, and they'll just walk away...it's no refection on their talent, it's their approach to the game, and i have no problem with that...

Spring? When the flowers bloom you're audi 5000 from here?

2nd, I think you may be looking at it wrong way. I do think you have more to lose than others though as you do advise in here so I can respect your decision.

2nd Ave: Oh I am competitive, just dont see a benefit.

Geckjob : Yes 1 more month and I porsche outta here.

i stand by my reasoning, which i think is pretty clear, and would prefer that you further the discussion by responding to the reasoning rather than continue to make the same point...

FXP - I'm long. Interested in viewpoints on holding this over the weekend.

Dave

Does Bernanke have a clue? When will somebody from the administration stand up and shout "it is in our national interest to have strong currency?" Even Kudlow has determined inflation is indeed a problem, and may not go away very quickly. How does one accumulate a short position of 1000 futures contracts in wheat and the firm doesn't discover it until 141 million dollars is lost?
The gold market seems a bit extended and may be due for a pullback. The rise from June 2005 to May 2006 saw gold rally 75%. A similar percentage gain from the June 2006 low would call for 96.25 in the GLD ETF; using the July 2007 low would project just under 110. From the July 2007 low GLD advanced about 20 points-a similar move from the November 2007 low also projects 96.25. On a weekly basis the RSI is showing a triple nonconfirmation to the peaks in November, February, and now. This is additionally a late stage breakout-at least the 4th on a weekly basis. The dilemna is fundamentally gold could really EXPLODE from these levels for all the obviuos reasons. Therefore I am playing this market by purchasing 6-12 month straddles in several miners; ABX, GG, NEM, AEM, and am wating to put a play on GFI. Although the implied volatilities are historically high, one could easily make the case vols should be at all time highs given the current uncertainties in all world markets. These postions should pay off on either a big sell-off or a runaway upside explosion, or if market makers decide their assessment of future historic volatility needs to adjust higher making IV's rise across the board. The ideal scenario would perhaps coincide with IMF dumping gold on the spot market driving down miners and allowing me to leg out of the put side of the straddle and having the upside calls for very little cost. Time will tell.

I am not going to rationalize your fear may or may not be real. I told you I respect your decision. The offer is open for others.

Holding short over the weekend requires one to stare Buffet in the eyes for three hours pre market Monday. Not a duel I want to do.

This is the kind of a drop I have been waiting for (after noticing ABX indices taking a nose-dive) in order to start taking profits on my shorts. As I woke up this (late) CA morning, I saw that the limit orders I placed on the shorts that I added on Monday and Tuesday were hit (short XLF bought to cover 26.1 and SRS sold at 111.4). However, I am still keeping more shorts as a hedge on my remaining longs (I sold some of them earlier in the week, but still keeping more).

It recently occurred to me that what I am doing can be more appropriately called portfolio management rather than trading, since at least half of my cash is always invested in a core commodity stock position, and then I am just buying more of the same stocks as the market falls (since I believe in them long-term) and sell them as the market rises and add shorts at the same time, which I cover as the market falls. In this way, I can potentially profit from the long-term rise in commodities (the demand is growing at least 3% per year on all commodities, and so in 25 years the world will need to be producing twice as much per day as it is producing now, which I doubt it can do for any commodity, and so at any point between now and then the prices can start rising exponentially) and also collect money from all market fluctuations, without using any sophisticated technical analysis. :)

Incidentally, I have a guess as to when the sharp drop in commodities will occur, of the kind Bill has been waiting for: it will occur when Bernanke says that inflation is not coming down as he expected, and he will have to take measures to fight it. That will be a repetition of May 2006, when EVERYTHING went down, since neither stocks nor bonds nor commodities like the expectation of interest rates going up. So that will be the time to sell EVERYTING (for a short while) and even open shorts on anything you want.

DavidV

i would have no problem with straight-forward statements about respecting my decision...but you effectively negate those statements (in both cases) with the comments preceding those statements...

2nd Ave: You are a valuable contributor...much more useful than most...and generous in spirit..this blog will not be the same without you...dont let pettiness distract you. :)

i'm allowing myself to be distracted for a good reason (IMO)...

What do you want here 2nd? We disagree on something no biggee. My apologies, can we move on?

DaveB- you have 90 minutes till close, which may tell you all you need to know re whether to hold or close your position...

geckojb- OK, that's all i'm looking for...thank you...

2nd - thinking the same - the last hour should give a good tell.

gecko - not sure how to think about Buffet on CNBC Monday - frankly I can't imagine him saying something like "stocks are cheap here". However, if he did that would be a huge boost to the equity markets.

Dave

RE: 2nd, All of us....

As your're probably noticing about now, this game is mental.

Hard to do when being watched over your shoulder.

picking up a little MSFT...

Exmin did a small offering today at 0.30/share - 20% more than the market price. Stock is rallying to the offer price.

ALOHA !!

Si02 ... This is why I do not engage in "politically charged" trades. Those here who do not believe politics has anything to do with your portfolio you best check your pulse!

In the same vain of MBIA why should the GM share price be at $24USD and Ford is at $6USD? Why should either be paying dividends when they are struggling for their very survival? Who is propping up GM? Even Kirk gave up on GM!!!

I submit to you the same people propping up MBIA prices are also propping up GMs share price. In essence the power behind these "prop jobs" is the US Taxpayer and you know the usual suspects! Look at the member list of the US FED ...

As goes GM and MBIA so goes America! Its cheaper to prop up GM and MBIA than to end up with 70million angry retirees signing up for welfare all at once. Get the connection?

DaveB -

"You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?" -- Clint Eastwood

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YykfDFEk3y8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-0BVT4cqGY

Seatbelts everyone? Helmet? Mouthpeice?

Hang on Wilson!

go figure, the longs gettin burned now too...

wink,
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs

OG- i have to go with the belt-buckling scene in Bullitt...at least you have a chance of getting away LOL..

Can someone explain why DUG is down -5.92% and April crude is down .72%? TIA

down -.72%

DUG 38.01 +2.21 +6.15%

DUG seeks twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas index not Crude.
Here is the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJUSEN

Billy Sundance is just raking it in with his DUG call...thats a nice move !!

DUG is the inverse of oil stocks, not oil. so
XLE -3.15%
DUG +6.03%
makes sense.

Incredible move in ten year Treasury yields last two days. Is it flight from munis or just plain old panic?

MOAB: Rumors of rate cuts..and a reminder to Bernanke who is in charge,and to hurry up

It does makes sense, thanks all.

EEM Trader - Glad I still have DUG (still under water overall as I started building the position too early - in the 40s - ouch).

I left the FXP/EEV party considerably too early today, but that is the price I pay to avoid uncertainty. I really didn't think the indices would sell off to this degree today as I thought the considerable drops would be held off until next week.

BILLYSUNDANCE: PAT yourself on the back...si..price to pay for the life/hobby we choose , you still done good ...as they say in Texas...

I am surprised too at this sell off..end of month sell off? todays news wasnt any worse than 4 days ago..and then it rallied....Goofy.

RRPIX- scaling in at today's closing price..

Look at how the shorts got crushed in the long bond in two days. Is this really fun?

Again the pattern is selling pressure on the XLF leads to more selling volume on indexes. SDS just broke out of triangle not good for longs.

EEM, the fact that people are realizing it's not getting better and hedge fund margin calls are going on. I suspect others are having margin selling as well is going on.

Geckjob: Si..but somehting must trigger the sell off and the cascading margin calls though right...whaddup with end of month selling???

Net declining issues > 2300 are as bad as 1/17th...

Apparently scumbag Gasparino said that the Ambak bailout has stalled. I'm thinking this is a rinse and repeat market manipulation so the prop desks can make money with the market running in place at 100 mph. Poole's comments also being blamed.

There probably margin calls on funds with large muni exposure.

Watch out for the Ambak deal to magically get done near 1315 S&P to catch everyone short and a rally into the Visa IPO in mid March.

What are plans for the weekend? 2nd, do you plan to hold anything over the weekend?

holding long positions in MSFT/SNDK/WFMI over the weekend, as well as an opening position in RRPIX...

Gonna hold FXP over the weekend - primary trend for it is down and this close should have people thinking twice about being long this market.

Interesting tidbit:
I read today that the DOW will now be down 4 months in a row - first time since depression-era. I haven't checked this out for truthfullness yet - but sounds credible.

Dave

EEM, what about you?

out of SRS @ 112.94, a little bit of a hair raising multi-day ride, but profitable. all clear for the weekend, & will wait to see what happens monday... nice having a weekend w/nothing to think about.

have a good one, ladies & gents!

OK the interesting tidbit I just posted is NOT correct - I see that beginning April 2002 the DOW was down 6 months in a row!

Believe very little of what is thrown out as reliable information...

Verify always

Dave

QUENTUSREX: Holding nothing..plenty of opportunities..if we crash or rally monday morning..there is still money available..just not willing to leave it on the table ...sleep better..this sell off is just weird...selling all my shorts now admist the plunge...

One TA person I follow said on Wed. that the Industrials continue to battle their 50 day moving average and that if we busted through we would see a 300-400 point rally. But he also said that should the 50 DMA hold, then "this is it, and we drop hard." However, he expected prices to breakout above the 50 DMA. I believe he uses Elliot Wave.
What do you think?

DaveB- OK...will need to verify, but is there not a history of unexpected friday sell-offs continuing into sharper sell-offs monday? we'll see...agree with EEM->still holding plenty of ammo...

Denny -

Who knows? The market is trading on all sorts of unknown information and manipulations fed to the press, to the point where it makes a mockery of the regulators. Sell resistance and buy/cover support. Take the profits where you can.

~1330 and ~1314 are support, as the mini rally now shows.

Denny : That DJI is either in an ascending traingle or continuation triangle..as I type ( wink ) it just poked below...we know when whatever happens.

Honestly..worrying about market direction is for swing traders and investors...too hard to figure this thing out..rather be dumb and play follow the leader.

Lord...as I lay me down to sleep, please dont let me be a trader in too deep. I promise to buy and hold again, just stop this market its driving me insane..

DavidV- congrats, major payoff on your short financial positions today...

Added to my SNDK @23.50...

This is a longer term hold for me..

Unlike 2nd-Ave..Who I know will be out first thing come Mondays POP...:^)

I went short FXP @ 89.7 and EEV @ 80 into the close. Too far too fast in today's sell-off. The trend is obviously down for now but these are support areas for both and I don't think they will fall without a fight - definetly looked like panic in the last hour.

Partial positions only and they are (dirty) hedged against some positions I already have.

Don't know if anyone noticed my earlier post

Closing 1/2 position in SKF

And 1/2 positions in DUG and DXD that I put on yesterday...

Looking for a bounce around 12330 in DJIA...

If it breaks that level quickly, then 12230 comes into play...

Posted by: basketguy at February 29, 2008 10:52 AM

It hit 12224 and bounced...I closed all my remaining shorts and will wait for Monday

Bought Northern Dynasty (NDM.T) at the close. Beaten down but, rebounding this week. I think that Peter Grandich will be touting it at PDAC.

Thanks, moab, EEM--the charting is kind of interesting to me, regardless of the behind-the-scenes machinations. Support becomes resistance, right?

BA, it's trading like the Air Force Tanker deal has been leaked and it's not good for BA longs.

Long BA

Denny..let me know how that elliot wave methodology works for you...

I dont know how to make it work unless i keep shifting counts and starting points..which means..whats the predictive value...

too dumb to figure it out..sometraders swear by it..but still could not understand their explaination..not in my make up and destiny I guess. :(

Oh my lord!!!!! Dug collapsed 2 whole points (4%) 1 minute before the close on huge volume. XLE didn't move sustantially. I thought I had no more capability for outrage but this is unfreaking believable.

Take your profits where you can get them. This is not a free market.

"Added to my SNDK @23.50...

This is a longer term hold for me..

Unlike 2nd-Ave..Who I know will be out first thing come Mondays POP...:^)"

From your mouth to Dog's ear BG!

Moab...and you didn't load up on DUG???

moab- i see three trades for DUG executed at 37.01 (416p), 23000, 7100, and 700 shares, but i also see later trades at 37.93..probably just clearing a few earlier trades late in the day, or maybe a disgruntled trader trying to give you a heart attack...

I wasn't watching at the close. Yahoo, Schwab, and stockcharts.com say it closed at 37.01. Huge red candle on the last five minutes. Very bizarre.

moab, I don't get it either, to be honest. Probably laziness on my part. This particular TA person has been very bullish all week, and said Tues that the Industrials were "likely" going to 12,800 or possibly 13,000 up until March 3rd. So I don't know--I guess you throw your best dart at this baby! Bill's TA seems pretty sound, by the way.

That last post was meant for EEM regarding elliot wave, not moab, sorry.

"DavidV- congrats, major payoff on your short financial positions today..."

I'll give everyone in the audience one guess how I'm feeling about this. ;)

i think the 37.01 print will be adjusted...current bid/ask are both much higher, and as you point out there is no change in the bid/ask for XLE...

Moab

I wouldn't be worried about DUG, just a few small trades reported late. I think some of these brokerages do VWAP (volume weighted average price) trades which would explain why someone would have made that deal. If it makes you feel better, my account shows $38.10 for DUG so I think you're in the clear.

Moab...Re DUG

Gotta shake off all the week hands and close out all the people who had stop losses set...

In this Rigged game, gotta expect it and just wait for the dust to settle to add to your position...

I think we will see a nice entry price come Monday and I will be watching and buying...

Thanks for the responses. It is $1 higher after hours. Volume was huge on the downspike.

I learned early to go with mental stops in this market.

Moab: always had the impression the two minutes are kinda funky ..happens with EEM and FXI quite a bit..alwys thought it was daytraders dumping and they move the price up or down..doesnt take much..only a penny to paint a bar green.

One of the reasons I buy the last minute ( last few seconds sometimes) is to avoid those before the closing bell gyrations... and then as you have noticed and Craig have pointed out..the after hours price changes..usually up.

hey all,

haven't had a chance to read through today's comments yet, but i thought i would provide a link to what I'm sure will be a GREAT roundtable discussion. Some of the participants, James Turk, Bill Murphy, Rob McEwen!!!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

it will be part of the financial sense newshour, which is a really great weekly radioshow provided online free of charge, hosted by James Puplava.

Check it out, it will be up tomorrow.

Cheers from a snowstorm-y southern ontario.

BG- actually, technology is starting to look good as long-term holds:

how does the last dance scenario play out- if fund managers need to be fully invested at all times, then they have only two reasons to sell: a) to buy something else, or b) to cover redemptions...

looking at sectors, any investors in the financial/homebuilding/technology sectors who have not redeemed fund shares yet are unlikely to do so at all...

as commodities begin to fall, starting to think shorting the above (out-of-favor) sectors may not be as profitable as shorting in-favor sectors...

if we expect funds to be rotating out of commodities/energy, then two likely sectors to be rotating back into are financials and technology...too early to tell if financials have been sufficiently de-toxed, so why not technology...hence SNDK/CSCO/MSFT/INTC or any mutual fund in the sector (eg, FSPTX) may begin to recover even as commodities fall, and well ahead of the 'average' sector...

open to errors in logic...

Okay kids.....

Got my marketletter missive/warning today AH.

The pros say take your long marbles off the table and go defensive. I don't have to tell you what that means.

I can't go into details or they will have to kill me.....I can only say that if we get any rally, get out of town and short it.

for the same reasons, starting to think QID may have already topped out, in which case lateral moves into DUG/SMN make sense...

2nd - interesting thoughts:

First question I'd ask is: do, in fact, fund managers need to be fully invested at all times? Perhaps some do, but I think not all.

Your scenario may still play out as you describe...

Dave

Dave- hedge funds certainly are 'exempt,' although the average investor will not be invested in them...index tracking funds, of course, require that the funds track the underlying indexes...and any sector-tracking funds require being invested in the sector...for diversified funds, it's not clear to me how much cash they are allowed to keep on hand (eg, to redeem shares without having to sell off positions), but i think shareholders expect them to be holding equities and not cash, right->otherwise, they are paying some hefty fees for someone to sit on cash...

put another way, let's say you are NOT a market-timer (and most investors are not)-> you decide to allocate your money 25% technology, 25% health-care, 25% international, 25% financials...only to find that half of each fund is timing the market by holding 50% cash->i think you would be more than a little pissed off, especially if they turn out to be wrong!

a fund manager's job is to fulfill what the prospectus promises, not to time the market...hence with the exception of long/short hedge funds, they will be fully invested at all times...

FXI - is very close to a death cross: 50 ma crossing down through 200 ma. Tested the 200 ma on Weds and pulled back.

Monday and next week should be most interesting.

Dave

2nd - I follow your points, and buy the premise. Now we see if the rest of the scenario plays out...

good thinking - thanks

Dave

Did you get your mail 2nd?

2nd Ave: re: long tech/fin..short commod..

If you believe this market sell off is over, and that the reasosn for the sell off are normal economic/market cycles, then you may have nailed it.

If you believe the sell off is caused by severe financial dislocations never before experienced in common times, and the continued devaluation of the dollar, and a surging middle class elsehwere competing for diminishing resources, and a consumer led recession...then tech/fin is not the place. Nothing may be the place..they all fall, with commod having the most cushion( goes down the least )

when its time to buy again...buying what the world needs and selling what the consumer wants is how I am going to position myself. The XLB though is 50% chemicals..

Normal market cycles follow that gold sell off last.I dont think what we are experiencing or about to experience is a normal economic contraction. Global credit markets are severely impaired ..and expansions are fueled by debt.

This could be a looooooooooooonnnng one.

EEM, I believe the second option is correct.
It's going to be a long one.

We've all seen recessions before, but not in conjunction with this type of extremely leveraged fiscal dislocation.

Each bubble gets bigger and bigger....the balloon stretches and stretches....until it doesn't anymore.

We are at that point.

With most funds fully invested, if not leveraged, there is not much buying power out there, except perhaps from foreigners. But in euros/yen/renmibi, the markets have been declining severely. The potential for margin calls to feed on themselves and result in sustained selling of all assets is a possibility IMO. Assets sure seem to be positively correlated, except gold, which has been rising regardless.

craig- the more input the better, thanks...so you're saying we'd just be rotating our way into a separate kind of hell (LOL)...OK, all ideas are up for consideration...

Dave- craig has a pretty good source->why don't i amend my statements to 'hold that thought' for now...;)

Craig:

AGree wholeheartedly..at thh same time..I dont short change the ability or desire for some to delay the nightmare or come up with temporary solutions.

Seriously...how joyful will our own little worlds be if the financial insititutions cracked, bread cost $20, gasoline $200 and Gold at $2000. Do you really want to lose/degrade your standard of living? I dont.

So if inflation is 1% a month, my goal is to increase my financial net worth by 3% a month. IF the financial system crumbles..I dont have a solution..my accounts here or elsewhere may all suffer the same fate.

Thats why I wont pass out bad news unless its followed by a useful personal solution relevant to my own goals. Blaming the government, fiat currency, etc, how crooked HB&B are..does not help me come up with a solution that I am responsible for implementing, to improve my own lot in life.

As I used to tell my employees..quit bitchin..!! IT tells me that you believe you are helpless to save yourself,and worse, you spread misery!!! You infect and demoralize others, present solutions or lead them out of their misery.

Why in the world would I want you around my company? Come up with a solution, and i will give you a raise, or banish yourself to whinning mediocrity. come up with a solution that works for everybody, and I will invest in your company.

:)

EEMtrader- i'm starting to like your 'let the market tell me' style...to paraphrase your 'don't trade february using january's stategy' comment->maybe it's time for me to transition to more reactive trading...

Why can't govt just print & distribute paper money for years and years, postponing reckoning for decades more? Why apocalypse now?

Why can't govt just print & distribute paper money for years and years, postponing reckoning for decades more? Why apocalypse now?

whatever works, iow...

sorry for double

that's OK, man...the Fed's already tried it on us twice...

Peter -

That is Weimar Germany's solution and the Germans are frightened to death to this day of a repeat. The resulting economic chaos helped put Hitler in power. One billion marks for a loaf of bread?

Inflation is their #1 enemy, whereas in the US we are frightened to death of deflation.

Fears of the 20's and 30's influence public policy to this day.

The Fed is trying desperately to maintain credit expansion by lowering cost of credit and accepting junk collateral from the money center banks. They are not printing actual dollars. Yet.

@nd Ave: ITs not reactive trading..If I was the only one going in that direction, I wouldnt make money...I trend trade because I want my profits to build as long as possible, i need the masses to make money.

The stock market is a Ponzi Scheme..if no new money comes in..where is the movement, without movement, money searches for better returns elsehwere.

I follow the Big money, they make me money and they get their cut. I dont for a minute think they have my best interests at heart.

ITs not reactive trading..I am always anticiapting turning points..I can tell where the market might turn, but I cant tell whether it will turn, till it does. And I dont get paid till it does turn, and then doing it consistently.Thats the part I am working on consistency..

When the volatitliy dies down......I will go buy/start a hybrid hQQters and cold stone ice cream franchise, if they let me, and live in Ft.Lauderdale with nubile women in bathing suits giving free massages and sun tan lotion rub downs to drive traffic to my franchise.

I like the call by the sisters from Costa Rica.
Their ideas were based on a pathetic $usd and the continued flooding of fiat paper in the U.S. which pretty much has to happen to bail out/recapitalize HB&B. No one has explained how we get around that obstacle or how we can go up with financials and transports on the ropes.

So in my mind, defensive could be internationals linked to those themes (currencies, PM's, miners, energy).

That would also be consistent with the content of this blog. I hate to say, "Bill say's this or that", but that is the theme here and he has been calling for a more severe correction....just about everyday.

My source just confirms that theme (we're in a bear)and knowing it gets confirmed by several other sources of analysis before it's distributed.

Also David Tice from Prudent Bear was on Bloomberg and he was saying the same thing (another 40-50% down) and had sound reasons, whereas he was debating Professor Seagal (sp?) from Wisdom Tree who said all the same BS about "long term investors" buying and holding. That's just code for be a loser of capital. I'd rather slam my hand in the car door.

I hope we get a little bounce on Monday that allows me to free my arse from this bear trap without too much skin!

EEMt- OK, just let me know what kind of secret Caraista handshake will get craig and i in for 1/2 price...

2nd Ave: I will know its you and craig..all you got to say is " Is this all the women you hardly know or do know?" or " Quit putting powdered milk in our milk shakes!"

That will be the secret passphrase..

And my response would be...you pay for powdered milk here...you get real milk at my house for as long as you can handle it.

:)

2nd Saw you're scaling into RRPIX also . . good luck . . took very small positions in a couple of IRAs last night . . .nothing in master or other accounts yet . . . figure I'm 1/20 into overall targeted T-O-G position . . . this will be gradual unless the market tells us otherwise.

EEM You're not going away in the spring . . you're changing priorities . . . hit'em straight!

Some great intel comes out of PDAC . . wasn't able to make it this year due to Beantown committment . . will be checking from out east to see how they're doing. Have a great weekend!

2nd, EEM, Dave,
I suggest reading Bill's GG report.
I think he says it better than I could and has far more experience.

Thank you Bill and Pat.

Oh Man.....Seattle news shows Boeing employees erupting over the U.S. Air Force buying Airbus tankers. Personally I wonder how much tanker we will get buying an Airbus airframe with our highly valued $USD? Doesn't Boeing make a high quality product? What gives? We don't need the jobs here? I'm glad I don't work for a Boeing subcontractor anymore.

Where is Boeing HQ? Chicago. Who's the U.S. Senator from Illinois?

It's going to be very interesting to see a certain Presidential candidate rub shrub's face in the mud on shipping jobs overseas......

Mark my words.

BTW, love France, love the French. Their planes SUCK. When I fly I pick flights using Boeing jets. I've flown many times in an Airbus. I have never been in a more uncomfortable jet. And since I am a former Tool and Die maker, I know something about Boeing quality.
If it flies they are unrelenting on QC.

Our government seems hell bent on putting us all in the poorhouse....at least until they're thrown out in November. I'm for free trade and all but I'm glad I don't have to defend this decision. Apparently the Bush admin not only doesn't know the price of gas, but they don't have the slightest idea about the political/economic conditions in this country.

As the late Ann Richards said, "Poor George, he was born with a silver foot in his mouth."
I guess the apple doesn't fall far from the tree, as daddy didn't know what milk cost and Bill Clinton made him look as stupid as his son.
Look for the replay.

"It's going to be very interesting to see a certain Presidential candidate rub shrub's face in the mud on shipping jobs overseas......"

I didn't realize Mobile, AL was overseas.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/3cpekt

In fact, those overseas Americans in Mobile even have the gall to be in a celebratory mood over the news:

=======================
Northrop's plane won because it deserved to
Posted by Press-Register Editorial Board February 29, 2008 6:14 PM

The best tanker won.

After all the specifications and proposals and the designs and the marketing wars and the politicking, the decision should have been just that simple. Did Northrop Grumman/EADS or Boeing Co. have the best aerial refueling tanker to offer the Air Force?

The Air Force decided Northrop Grumman did. The $40 billion contract for 179 tankers goes to the partnership that will assemble it all in Mobile.

This decision is not just the biggest economic development ever, making Mobile the third hub in the world for large airplane construction. It is no exaggeration to say that the history of this city changed today, and all for the better.

Up to 1,500 direct new jobs are expected, and satellite airplane/aerospace-related firms can be expected to locate or expand here. A very big piece of the local economy will be based on the highest available military technology.

We expect, of course, that the losing Boeing Co. will not go quietly. In financial and military circles, the win for Northrop Grumman/EADS is considered a shocking upset on par with the New York Giants winning the Super Bowl over the undefeated and seemingly insurmountable New England Patriots.

Boeing can be expected to officially protest the award and start working members of Congress favorable to that firm. We expect considerable second-guessing about what went on this week while the decision was kept under wraps.

Meanwhile, Mobile should enjoy a richly deserved celebration, and then get to work. After all, EADS also promised to move additional airplane assembly work to Brookley Field if it won the tanker contract. There's a great deal of construction to do and thousands of people to hire.

Every business executive, state and local government official and elected leader who all worked as a team to win the contract when the odds-makers said it was hopeless deserve the thanks of this community.

Gov. Bob Riley and his administration kept focused on winning the tanker competition no matter what the analysts said or what Boeing was up to. Retirement Systems of Alabama chief David Bronner made some initial contacts years ago to interest EADS executives in Mobile. The Airport Authority, the port authority, Mayor Sam Jones, the Mobile City Council, the Mobile County Commission and the Chamber of Commerce are just some of the players who should stand up and take a bow for their role in this success.

We hope that the Air Force decision will lay to rest the notion that the KC-45A will somehow be an un-American airplane. Some Boeing supporters have acted at times as if Paris-based EADS comes from an enemy country. Northrop Grumman and EADS are assembling the tankers here, in Mobile, Alabama, United States of America. This new international airplane construction hub will be an American one. Americans will have jobs, and the Americans who live here will prosper.

All Northrop Grumman/EADS - and Mobile - asked for was a fair competition with Boeing to see which tanker could do the best job.

The Air Force has made its decision, and while we doubt that the fighting over the contract is over, we believe that the choice will prove to be the right one.

Assembly jobs...of an EADS airframe and parts.
So some people in Mobile get to assemble French parts. The only U.S. parts are the GE engines.
The only use for Northrup was to hold the door open for EADS.

They could have ALL been U.S. jobs.
Manufactured AND assembled in Kansas City, Seattle and Everett.
The 767 is a U.S. manufactured jet including the Pratt and Whitney engines.

Nice story by talking heads without a clue.

Re: FNC
I took Bill's words about FNC as a hint and kept buying from 1.80 down to 1.30. I sold at 2.00 because I needed the money. I tried buying back at under 2.00 a few times through my RRSP trading account but I could never get my price. I was only a few pennies off the low each time and did not have the time to follow it. I would just put in a bid before the opening, go to work and hope for the best. I missed the rise to 2.70; got a bit too greedy. Result: only a 22% gain!
This was a most excellent learning experience.
Cheers and thanks again Bill!

Those without a clue are the neo-mercantilist mountebanks that pervade this board, mussing up the S/N with their protectionist and xenophobic hyperbole and hysteria. Four years ago, during the height of the housing bubble, I bought residential real estate in Alabama, in an area with twelve percent unemployment, an area where the local manufacturing base had been decimated during the previous decade as domestic industries closed shop. Now, however, this area has one of the lowest unemployment rates anywhere, with ManPower projecting continuing employment growth for at least the next two years. Housing prices continue to appreciate despite the carnage elsewhere. Industrial and commercial investment is booming. Where has the investment come from? Mainly international companies, notably from Sweden, Japan, and Canada. The Canadian firm, once operational by the first of next year, will be the largest employer in the region. At the other end of the shipping waterway (a beneficiary of late of high fuel prices and a move away from OTR for some goods) that runs through this city and terminates at the Bay of Mobile will be the largest steel plant built in this country for generations. It's a Thyssen-Krupp plant. Not far from it, hopefully, will be the facility for this aerospace partnership. These companies are all providing employment and increased standards of living for those who live in these communities while also providing value to the capital ownership. Some of the preceding circumstances that have made this state the recipient of so much investment over such a short time were surely unpleasant but through the miracle of "creative destruction," new industries and market participants have arisen out of the demise of their predecessors, increasing the standards of living and wealth of these areas beyond what they were before. Pardon me if I fail to see the tragedy of this particular development and harbor the pervasive sense of foreboding that exists among so many here.

HELLO BILL.MY NAME IS BURKE MILLER AND I MADE MY MEMBER NAME DESER AND I AM DISPLAYED AS EXCAVATORSB. ON BEHALF OF MY FAMILY AND MYSELF I WOULD LIKE TO THANK YOU FOR YOUR HONESTY AND INTEGRITY. WE ARE GRATEFUL TO LOOK BEYOND THE LIES INTO TRUTH ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND BUSINESS SO WE CAN HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PROVIDING FOR OUR FAMILIES. TRUELY THIS IS A MARK OF EXCELLENCE AND YOU COMMAND A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF RESPECT HERE.AS FAR AS TRADING I AM A NOVICE AND SEEK TO HUMBLY LEARN AND ASK QUESTIONS. PLEASE DO NOT POST THIS INTRODUCTION. SINCERELY A MAN OF HONOR.

I think I can respond accurately to exactly what this is and what it means. I attended years of schooling and a four year apprenticeship to become a machinist in the 70's. I was assured by all my educators and mentors that as a machinist I would be assured of excellent employment for the rest of my life and I could live and work almost anywhere in the United States with a good standard of living.
I would always have a good job with my knowledge tools and skills.

I too bought property in Washington State after completing my apprenticeship in Southern California and took work for a Boeing subcontractor in 1977 during that well known recession. I ran a profiling mill that made 8 landing gear struts at a time, a large horizontal mill that made missile carriages, a Bridgeport mill that machined the aluminum webs that added strength to wing cross sections, and various other operations to tolerances of tenths of thousands of an inch, including tooling to mass manufacture many other parts for civil and military systems in a factory that employed 600 American machinists and welders.

The parts were engineered by Boeing in America, the tooling was made in America, and the parts were manufactured in America, the machinery was American. The engineers were educated in America, I was educated in America, and so was every other employee. The country spent a lot of money to educate a whole hell of a lot of people, only to have those jobs sent offshore. The shop was non-union.

I can no longer find employment as a machinist. There is no need for tool and die makers to make tooling for jobs that don't exist anymore. My job was exported like the millions of other well paying manufacturing jobs for well educated skilled workers to places that American owners of capital can have it done without the benefit to the workers and citizenry of environmental standards, fair labor practices, safe factories or fair pay. The thick air of China is proof of the current exportation of our pollution as it is elsewhere like Mexico.

The pressure and backlash became so great for some Japanese companies that they started putting "assembly plants" for companies like Toyota and Honda in places like Tenn. and Alabama where the workforce was not as well educated and as a result under-employed, and where they would work for far less. Not with factories that manufactured the parts and products, but like the jobs we send to Mexico and China, low paying assembly jobs that can bypass the environmental regulations of the U.S. because the parts are manufactured on American tooling built by American workers in places that don't have environmental regulations, foster slave labor and pay desperate people in third world countries pennies on the dollar without the benefit of safe factories or machinery. They then have them shipped back to the U.S. where now desperate unemployed will work for pennies on the dollar to "assemble" those parts into products for sale to Americans that can barely afford them with out taking on lifelong debt.

You will have to excuse me if I think debasing our educational system, manufacturing base, and turning Alabama into another third world low pay (in comparison to a manufacturing job requiring an education and skill development) assembly plant to benefit shareholders instead of the citizenry, isn't a good idea.

I'm sure it's great for the people of Alabama who apparently don't value an aducation and have schools ranked in the lowest percentile of the country and who only have the skills to take a place on an assembly line assembling parts engineered and manufactured in other developed nations like Japan, France and Great Britain.
They could as easily assemble parts engineered, tooled and manufactured here in this country.
The people in Kansas City will be closing the 767 plant that would have made those American parts. They will instead be made in France and the wings in Great Britain. Those countries will get those high paying skilled jobs while Alabama will settle for unskilled assembly line jobs paying far less. Alabamans won't be running mills or engineering aircraft.

It lowers the collective standard of living for all Americans and speeds us on the way to third world status where the "owners" of capital can complete their mission to enslave us all in our own country. That you think otherwise is proof these supposed "capitalists" have either completed their public relations ploy or that you have sold out your own country to be an assembler and not an engineer, tool maker or manufacturer. I take it you think it's alright that America becomes the assembler of parts made by the educated and skilled engineers and workers in other countries and that we import skilled engineers, computer programmers and doctors from places that think education is a good idea while we lower or educational level, turn out less and less qualified graduates with pathetic math skills, can barely read, and who concentrate on really important things like the brand of tennis shoe they wear and what Brittany Spears is doing on any given day. Apparently it's okay to you that companies like "American Standard", Zenith, Whirlpool, etc. export their American engineered and made tooling and associated jobs to places like Mexico or Alabama where the poor and uneducated will gladly work for less and drive the standard of living down for all of us.

Truly "Creative Destruction". Not miraculous, but short sighted. Not greater wealth by building better infrastructure and a real manufacturing base. Not "new industry" or even lasting wealth, but in comparison to the lack of real investment in the people in an uneducated poor state, perhaps temporarily increased at the cost to America itself. But for how long?

I don't think it's "protectionist and xenophobic hyperbole and hysteria", I think it's un-American, unwise, and unfortunately, the truth.
How long will Americans struggle to earn a living wage as assemblers of cheeseburgers, happy meals and parts thought of, engineered and made elsewhere? Who will stop the swirling spinning sucking sound of real jobs and skills leaving our nation for short-sighted gain by the wealthy few? Who will be able to afford those products in the future? It is already fewer and fewer. It has not risen from the demise of their predecessors, it has arisen from the demise of our fellow citizens. It is not investment. Investment is hard. Investment is comprehensive, it isnt short-sighted and easy.
It isn't simply an assembly line. It's education, real manufacturing, well paying SKILLED jobs of products designed by American ingenuity. What you have is none of that.
You will assemble foreign parts for our military that should be made here. What you may have is not an aerospace partnership. That's total BS.
You have an assembly line. You have no idea how to design and build jets or cars. Alabama doesn't have a University that educates aerospace engineers or even community colleges that educate machinists. You assemble parts made by foreign aerospace and automobile industries. Like Mexico assembles our TV's.

Mr. McGraw, I urge you to wake up and smell the coffee. McDonalds is calling.

Kaimu, once again you are right. The circle of American "democracy" is almost complete.

Hi,

This morning I have been looking at some broad equity market charts, and I am getting the feeling that the equity markets are again facing a critical juncture, which can break to the downside.

Overall, my first impression is that serious volatilty is in coming in equities for the days ahead.

Later in the weekend I will try to look at this again with a more detailed look, from a TA perspective.

For now, Just this line to call for caution.

Disclosure: I am out of equities.

We are having a wonderful sunny morning, and I will be out taking the first spring air in.

Cheers!

ALOHA !!

jsmcgraw ... With all due respect. Who ever said it was horrible for the USA to secure new sources of employment? In fact if you went to Northrup Grumman's site you would see in terms of numbers of new jobs this deal will generate Alabama 5,000 new jobs which is few compared to California getting 7,500 new jobs. In fact there will be 25,000 new jobs created in 49 states not just Mobile, Alabama.

READ ON:
Northrup Grumman K-30 website
State-by-State Economic Impact

The KC-30 Tanker aircraft will be assembled in Mobile, Ala., and employ 25,000 American workers at 230 U.S. companies in 49 states. It will be built by a world-class industrial team led by Northrop Grumman, and includes EADS North America, General Electric Aviation and Sargent Fletcher.

The aircraft is based on the A330 Multi-role Tanker Transport, which was selected in the last four international tanker competitions to support the air forces of Australia, United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Click on links below for details of the state-by-state economic impact:

• Alabama
• Arizona
• Arkansas
• California
• Florida
• Georgia
• Illinois
• Indiana
• Louisiana
• Maryland
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• New Mexico
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Tennessee
• Texas
• Virginia
• West Virginia

END

Seems like a WIN-WIN for everyone ...

What you fail to understand is the way politics and the defense contractors combine to squander our future generations solvency. Who will pay for these 179 new tankers the AirForce bought? Isn't it the US Taxpayer? Who will pay for these 25,000 new jobs? Isn't it the rest of us other 100million US Taxpayers? If only we were selling these 179 air tankers to China so we could balance our trade deficit and the US Dollar's value would rise instead of fall! All this deal does is redistribute tax revenues from one sector of the US economy to the other. Unless all these tankers are being exported for a profit it boils down to welfare. This does nothing to lower our balance of trade. All this does is raise our taxes and debt for the benefit of defense contractors and the Air Force and the Northrup employees and Mobile. Foreigners come in and build steel plants so the US Taxpayers can go into debt to build air tankers so that we can go into more debt bombing and invading little Third World countries half a World away. This is a great deal for the foreigners since they are selling steel to the US government creating more of a balance of trade deficit. Although I am not so sure the foreigners will be that keen to hold our dollars for long at the rate they are devaluing so I am sure they will buy other US assets at fire sale prices or start selling us steel denominated in Euros!

On top of that ... what am I suppose to do with 179 tankers? What are you going to do with them? I see you are expecting your property values to rise, but how does that benefit all of the USA. It only benefits 25,000 people and the domino effect from other businesses. Even if it were double thats still only 50,000 people! All the US government ever does with military spending is redistribute tax dollars it does not earn. If I have to pay more taxes and see my country go into more debt I'd rather see those funds go to repairing failing infrastructure like the electrical grid, than limited use-limited life 179 air tankers. Our current antiquated electrical grid bleeds a 65% power coefficient loss for air-suspended transmission power lines manufactured and installed some 20 to 30 years ago. Many more people and businesses will benefit from a new more high tech power grid than new air tankers.

Then we have cost overruns ... I was a former contractor myself, whose main client for fifteen years was the fifth largest school district in the State Of California. Believe me when I tell you I never did a contract that was on schedule or under budget! I was encouraged not to by the IBEW union and the school district project manager. If the school district fails to use all of its allocated budget then they get less funding the next fiscal year. I suspect defense contractors have the art of "milking" the public down to a science! One of my friends is a subcontractor to Northrup in California and he tells me some real horror stories about "billing"! Naturally it all gets passed onto the US Taxpayer! In fact did you know that Northrup funds their pension plans through these defense contracts? Not from their "overall profits" like 99% of businesses do, but pensions are a line item on labor in their estimates and like all good estimators(I know because I was responsible for multi-million dollar project estimates for my company)they even mark up overhead and profit on pensions. I think defense contractors are the only entities allowed to profit on their pension liabilities on public works contracts all paid for by US Taxpayers!!! WOW ... what a sweet deal! That's welfare ...

I guarantee you the defense contractors and the foreigners are not doing all this due to any benevolence on their part! In 1996 when I went to Australia to buy a 330,000 acre cattle ranch for $986,000USD I was not doing it to benefit the local cattle association. I was doing that for profit and because a US Dollar was worth twice as much as an Australian dollar so every piece of property was 50% off back then if you paid with a US Dollar. My plan was to sell off the herd and parcel out the property to pay for the investment. What's a Euro or a British pound worth now compared to a US Dollar? Hummmmm ... small wonder European companies are in Alabama buying up US property!!! Sounds like that "creative destruction" would be a good term for US Dollar debasement! How ever did debt become wealth and destruction creative? If destruction is so creative then will someone please send BinLaden a thank you card for "creatively" creating all those new jobs at the WTC Ground Zero!!

This air tanker deal is way deeper than jobs and property values ... Both Thomas Jefferson and Dwight D Eisenhower warned us about the military-defense complex and its destructive powers on our political and monetary system. You have to think past fiat patriotism because there is nothing as unpatriotic as a debased currency and a warfare-welfare state ... unless debt and serfdom is your goal! Less government means less military and less military means less debt! To fix what's wrong with America we need to start with less government!

I disagree with your assessment of foreboding here at th Bill Cara site. I see reality being defined here without the politico-biased media rethoric noise machine. If you define that as "foreboding" then by all means load your 357 Magnum and shoot the messenger! Debt is not wealth ... Its that simple. Our monetary system is based on debt, we are being taxed into an apothetic trance and we are dependant on foreigners and that is not what our Founding Fathers fought and died for. There is no liberty in debt ... There is no freedom in taxation ... There is no trust in fiat ... If George Washington or Thomas Jefferson or Dwight Eisenhower were alive they would condemn this government! LESS GOVERNMENT and LESS MILITARY were their core values ... Read the US Constitution once!

ALOHA !!

Many here may be wondering why I listed Dwight D Eisenhower as someone who distrusted the military-defense complex since he was such a high profile General during WW2 and Korea.

He served as President from 1953 to 1961. In 1961 as he left office he had this to say ... "We face a hostile ideology global in scope, atheistic in character, ruthless in purpose and insidious in method..." and warned about what he saw as unjustified government spending proposals and continued with a warning that "we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex... Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together."

What sort of citizenry do we now have in the USA? Is the US citizenry of today alert and knowledgeable? Or do we go about our day-to-day existence with blinders on in a struggle for the legal tender?

It takes a huge effort to even attempt to muddle through the "noise" they now call news. Most US citizens do not even know the name of their own Senator. Most US citizens think "fiat" is an Italian car! Most US citizens think a credit card is more important than a savings account! Most US citizens would rather watch Congress grill baseball players than Ben Bernanke! And if you asked them who Ben Bernanke is they would say, "Didn't he play left field for the Boston Red Sox back in the 1980s?"

By the way ... There has been a lot of talk lately about Barrack Obama's middle name "Hussein". Does anyone here know what Ben Bernanke's middle name is? It starts with a "S" ... You never hear a peep about that!!!