Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

TCK - to Outperform @ RBC

Target Price Lowered:

GOOG - $675 to $610 @ Stifel Nicolaus
GOOG - $715 to 600 @ Oppenheimer

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

Bill, I totally agree with you on the politics stance. Ok, speaking about the market, I ran a 5-day % change of all Chinese stocks and highlighted a few that seem to be improving chart-wise.
http://wallastoninvestments.com/thursday-morning-update

Bill

Certainly, police and prosecutor independence has to be a given but I think in Canada the RCMP need to address the skill requirements of a good white collar crime investigator. Promotion or assignment on the basis of seniority and other experience won't cut it. They need to find/develope a talent pool that has a feel for the markets and their operations plus investigative skills. Our track record in Canada is abysmal.

Yeah, but in America, we're #1!

Oh wait....

PDAC attendees - I won't be there, but I'd like to hear any feedback should one of you visit Golden Phoenix Open House and Technical Presentation from 6:00 to 11:00 pm, Monday, March 3, 2008 in the Saskatchewan Room of the Fairmont Royal York Hotel, 100 Front St., W., Toronto, Canada.
I'm underwater, yet from what I read this should be a good junior to hold until (assuming when, not if) the juniors turn, but you'll get a gut feeling from meeting them in person that I can't get from written documents.
TIA,
Chris

RE: golden Phoenix,

they are one of the stocks assigned to me for the JR project, and i spoke w/ their IR a few days ago who basically said they are in the middle of an audit and can only give limited info about the balance sheet, but would be giving me a good summary of their land package updates in time for the PDAC.

cara 100
12 green lead by abv
88 red lead by ubs
What a start this Thursday

Cara 100 Additional Upgrade:

IMO - to Outperform @ BMO

I will miss seeing you guys at the PDAC, I'm sure it will be productive and putting faces to names is always fun.

Jock - are we visiting Jim Sinclair's Tanzanian Royalty (TRE)? This is definitely a cult stock. I like the royalty business model, like SLW and RGLD. I think there would be interest in that name.

thanks

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/2/26/16314/5163

why you should look at water investments for the future...

Bill,

Thanks for making distribution of this critical Communication between Gary Aguirre and the Senate Banking Committee. I can tell you and your bloggers that we have had one member of Congress respond by saying “He’s right” when presented with the memo. But as all of you guys understand, knowing it and doing nothing solves nothing.

Part of what I do is ask that people draft their own memo’s to these same members of Congress (your direct Congressman, Senate Banking Committee, House Financial Services Committee, or Senate Judiciary) and reference this letter as well as your personal concerns over these important issues. The message, if the SEC is not watching out for us, and oversight is not properly overseeing the SEC, we are in deep trouble and Congress needs to understand we see it.

We have taken the time to create a link where you can go and gather all the necessary information on who and where to drat such a memo. Any assistance by the troops would be a worthwhile effort in the long run.

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/12

Thanks to you and all for your continued support and happy investing.

Dave Patch

And, as is typical in this market all the price movement happens between market close and open. Look at the drop in the S&P before the open.

This rewards anyone who assumes the risk of holding positions overnight. The trouble is, the market is so volatile that I believe few people want to hold positions overnight. That's what makes it so difficult to make money in these markets.

dr.cosa,
thanks for the quick update. Looking forward to hearing whatever you find out.

But Bill,

Oil Prices are up.

bill
Your comments make me wonder how much these sovereign wealth funds (Abu Dhabi) have invested in these unfree markets.
There has to be a monetary motive for handing Citigroup and Tollbrothers a fist full of cash at "their time of need."
Will the SEC ever investigate market corruption by these foreign government owned sonereign wealth funds when the time comes?

Anyone have any thoughts on CRDN, under $34, as a long term hold?

I like the company but fear that the transition from body armor to other product lines may take longer than expected.

Thoughts?

Regards

I read Bill's point #14 above and cannot for the life of me figure out why Cerberus wants to throw money at the Monolines? Haven't that pissed away enough money yet?

Shrub is on TV driving the markets down....reminding us how some people will want to have their bank accounts "credited" with their piece of the borrowed bank capitalization rescue stimulus package.

Afterall we want to make sure it goes to those intended....

2nd/Craig - Any thoughts re SMN?

There seems to be an endless pool of liquidity in the markets. No one knows where it coming from.. the carry trade.. yes.. yen to euros to dollars via the secretive credit swaps announced by Bernanke and Trichet.. yes. But no one can know because there is a complete absence of law and regulation now in the markets. It is a regulated criminal enterprise.. something like tobacco, good for the Duke family, lethal for tens of millions.

It's not one I normally use/watch OG.

Haven't heard from 2nd this AM.

But Patchine...didn't you pay attention to Ben yesterday....things will get better when oil goes down. He didn't explain how that could happen while he rains liquidity into the system.

The guy is like a dog that expects to catch his tail. Or a total moron...

DUG: Where is it headed?
2nd - Are you still holding DUG?

Cerebus owns part of GMAC, which is a huge lender, including mortgages. Cerebus is not a disinterested party.

Talk of wheat recently - you may want to read this:
http://tinyurl.com/2fu7op
has a nice chart of bubble behaviour too.

Yes Moab that's my point and hence the saying throwing good money after bad. It's almost like a double down on the credit slime.

Bill,

I suppose I should feel some sort of encouragment that the RCMP is indicating concern about securities fraud enforcement but I won't hold my breath. After seeing my 24,000 shares of STE.A become wallpaper I can only take comfort in knowing that I will continue to work off this loss against taxable gains for some time to come. I also believe that there exists a virtual army of seasoned securities professionals, myself included, who would consider duty with the RCMP in tracking down and bringing to justice the likes of ex-Nortel CEO John Roth, and Hap Stephen of Stonecrest Capital, for starters. The OSC and other regulators have failed in their duty so, just as in the U.S., there's no shortage of work to be done in Canada.

They are trying to buy time.

Wow, quite a collapse happening just in the last few minutes. Any news?

Consolidation at high prices in Oil and Gold shows accumulation and is bullish in nature. If the consolidation lasts long enough, the price oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics, etc.) will decline, negating the overbought condition, providing impetus for further rallies. Two things can remove an overbought condition: downward price moves and time. We'll see where this goes.

FXI's (China) downtrend line is holding for now.

SNDK (Sandisk) holding above horizontal support. Stops should be set below support, but be wary of getting whipsawed by a one day break of support. For an example of this please see; HBC on 02/11/08. HBC found support on it's climactic bar of 01/22/08, and then later broke the support, triggering stops only to gap up the next day above support. That's a tough trade to get stopped out of because a trader may want to buy again, but would be worried about the gap filling to the downside, which it didn't. Trading is not easy, always stick to your rules. But, this is also a great example of selling puts below the support, it gives you protection.

IEF (7-10 yr Treasury ETF) broke above downtrend line mentioned yesterday.

INTC (Intel) continues to trade within consolidation formation mentioned yesterday and is in center of (20, 2, 2) bollinger band. Yesterday, I mentioned a possible straddle (simultaneous purchase of calls and puts, same strike price and expiration). This is a bi-directional trade (delta neutral). The cost is the premium paid on both trades. That is your maximum risk making your major risk Theta (time decay). If the move doesn't happen until your options expire, you gave up all the premium, hence max risk is acheived in your p&l. Sergio asked what months I was looking at. That depends on a number of factors, but to alleviate the Theta risk for risk averse traders, a rule of thumb is looking at least 60 days out. I have a feeling that you won't need that much time, but I don't have Bill's crystal ball with me ;-). Rules of thumb on Theta - time decay accelerates inside of 60 days and is really fast inside of 30 days (roughly 50% of 90 day options time premium).

Bill mentioned "legging" out of a straddle a few weeks back. This means taking each side of the trade off at different times. So; if INTC rallies hard to the upside, your calls are now in the black and you may want to sell those calls to lock in profits. Now, what to do with the puts that are probably worth close to nothing. Why not just keep them on? If INTC gets overbought, it may just fall, maybe enough for the puts to be worth enough to get out of them at a minimum loss, OR the big bad bear may sink his claws into the market, pulling INTC down with it and you may actually make money on the put side as well, acting like a lottery ticket. This scenario is another reason to look 60 days out. Remember, successful traders measure risk first. Hope that helps.

sorry, man...just pulled back into the parking lot..

it's interesting that DUG/SMN/FXP/TWM are all about where i sold them yesterday...so the question right now is who has a take on market direction? two chips on the FXP pass line at 83 and change...

Speaking of Bush, can you imagine how calamitous it would have been had his Social Security privatization plan succeeded?

Given the corruption in the markets, this would have amounted to one of the greatest transfers of wealth from the working class to the wealthy in the history of the nation.

It's the principal saving grace of this disastrous presidency that this scheme failed.

fwiw, the better half now has chips on SNDK/CSCO/WFMI...

Bill, I received two e-mail responses from the SEC's Office of Inspector General this morning. Below is one of them.

Dear Mr. Patch,

Thank you for all the emails you have sent to us regarding the SEC's approach to naked short selling. It is always helpful for us to receive information from outside entitles that are closely monitoring the agency's activates.

We are in the process of reviewing the issue of naked short selling and will include the materials you have provided in that review. Thank you again for taking the time to inform us of these important issues.

Sincerely,

Mary Beth Sullivan
Counsel to the Inspector General
SEC Office of Inspector General

The Inspector General is David Kotz (Kotzd@sec.gov) or the division e-mail of OIG@sec.gov.

They claim they are investigating the issues of naked shorting and fraud, now is the time to overwhelm them with our interest in this taking place.

Yesterday I watched the Bernanke testimony. There was a question regarding how interest rates have been reduced by Bernanke, but the mortgage rates have not come down and have actually increased over the last month...and credit card rates have not come down either.

So basically now, the big banks can now access money at lower rates, but are lending money at higher rates. So now with tighter credit standards and higher interest rates...aren't the "financially responsible" people of America being forced to unfairly replenish the losses of the big banks...paying higher interest rates than they otherwise would have?

So now in this situation the big banks will eventually get their money and the responsible people will foot the bill for them. Isn't there something structurally wrong here and what can be done to fix it?

It's all NAFTA's fault silly! Have you heard Hillary and Barack slam NAFTA recently? Now free trade is being attacked as the cause of much of America's economic woes. I guess that Canada and Mexico are "economic terrorists". When will U.S. leaders run out of fingers to point?

if it seemed like we got a bootlegged copy of the 'last dance' last october, the action this week looks more like the real thing->XLB/GLD/GDX sure looking like 'tells' to get off the floor...

Can anyone please enlighten me as to why EGU heads south (again) when most other miners are rising? I cannot find any reason for this, more positive news today I thought.

Bernanke is speaking right now live on bloomberg.

mms://media2.bloomberg.com/btv_US200_n.asf

I don't know if it is to Congress, but I think so.

"So basically now, the big banks can now access money at lower rates, but are lending money at higher rates. So now with tighter credit standards and higher interest rates...aren't the "financially responsible" people of America being forced to unfairly replenish the losses of the big banks...paying higher interest rates than they otherwise would have?"

That's exactly what is happening.

Hammer... re "being forced to unfairly replenish the losses". I choose to not pay credit charges by not carrying credit debt. While I agree with you that the government has again stacked the tables for HB&B. My government...for the people and by the people.

peace ...my oft used closing is but an illusion. We are being waged war against...economic war by those who have expense accounts and use them

Bernanke is testify in the Senate committee today. Yesterday he was grilled in the House.

What emerges, as before, is he is a weak and ineffective leader.

He just said ethanol is a good idea. What a fool this man is. Has he been following the commodity markets at all?

craig- it's not the salt-water...just do my musing before going to bed, and sometimes i try to put myself in the other shoe...for the same reason, it's all good to be on the wrong side of a trade once in awhile->allows you to sharpen the instincts in your mental toolbox...it was probably lack of recent experience that dulled my senses and kept me on the wrong end of a short squeeze a little too long yesterday...

exiting FXP, EEv

n2son- ethanol is a good idea...he's just voicing personal preference at another place and time ;)

Hammer1 & number2son said/agreed that "aren't the "financially responsible" people of America being forced to unfairly replenish the losses of the big banks...paying higher interest rates than they otherwise would have?"

Yes, agreed, but that's only half the equation as as fixed income investors/retirees are forced to accept negative real rates of returns from fixed income.

The system puts the screws to you regardless of whether you are a debtor or a saver while trying to ensure the survival of the "Holy Grail" for them.

Extremely perverse.

Insider selling page from Kirk Report:
http://tiny.pl/l6r7

Regarding number2son post at 11:10 AM:
A big amen to those thoughts. Under that scenerio of privatization, social security investments would become like a roller coaster ride.

SNDK on its way to testing the 52-wk low...

Grains

There is no question that hot money funds are pushing grains markets. When this money leaves who knows where markets will settle. However, markets are being pushed in an environment where stockpiles are at all time lows and unlike other grain market spikes, all grains are participating. In a one or two grains spike, farmers adjusted planting patterns to the hot commodity and prices collapsed as soon as new crop production estimates were made. Right now farmers can lock-in all time high prices for virtually any commodity for next years crop (with possible exception of oats). It seems to me that different grains commodities are jostling for inclusion in farmers' cropping plans fo this year. In Western Canada, cropping plans are also being made with one eye on an El Nino phenomenum (cold Pacific waters)....in 1988 it caused a massive drought and in 1999 it caused massive spring rains/flooding resulting in substantial unplanted acres. In sum, I think the ag sector has at least one more really good year in store. Farmland prices are continuing to really jump and new iron is flying off the dealers' lots. Fertilizer prices are very high and no one is talking about cutting back. Optimism on the back forty has never been higher.

Just keep flapping your gums, Ben.

SKF up 5 % this morning. :^)

HELP! I need advice..
I read daily but seldom blog. I am learning. I do appreciate all who have the knowledge experience and post for others learning. I have been using simulated trading through Interactive Brokers. During the last couple of weeks I have been doing pretty well with my trading ... BUT... on several occasions the market went dramatically against me..so fast I didn't have time to react. I have learned I need to set in protective stops. These dramatic turns were due to news releases that I was unaware of until I heard about them several minutes after they were released. I am wondering if there is a way to get these types of market moving news released when others are getting them so I can know what is going on and be able to act timely. Your help and advise is greatly appreciated. Thank you all you seasoned and knowledgeable bloggers.
Bill

Looking at S&P daily charts, looks like we might be needing to go up and test resistance around 1378 before the downtrend can continue.

I am looking for a mid-day mini-rally, probably climaxing with a mini-short squeeze around 3 pm ET (margin calls). I think the market will likely get sold off late in the day but EOM window dressing could keep us steady.

Looking to re-enter FXP long with an 82 handle.

krishnamurtidude - Here's what you're looking for:
http://www.rttnews.com/apps/deskalert.asp

Food for thought from a book I recently read;

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dicatatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed though this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back into bondage."

Alexander Fraser Tytler,
from The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic
published in 1776

It is striking in how relevant it is today.

krishnamurtidude,
If Canadian mining companies are your thing I recommend that you set up an alert for the sector at Marketwire.com. I seem to get all of their releases at least half an hour before Google Finance releases the same information.

"Looking at S&P daily charts, looks like we might be needing to go up and test resistance around 1378 before the downtrend can continue."

I don't see it happening. The hourly chart, which I use to gauge short-term trend reversals, has rolled over from a bearish divergence. It has been reliable in the past.

But who knows, maybe we get another late afternoon "rumor" from CNBC to send the markets higher.

That said, I have been on a losing streak in terms of timing my entries and exits. Indeed, I thought I could write a companion to Dr. Elder's last book and call it "Entry and Exit Wounds". ;)

But I will say this is the strongest signal I've gotten in the last week of a reversal. Time and the markets will tell.

krishnamurtidude: to get the news really fast, you could always just go to work for Goldman Sachs?

That's a really neat little alert system. Thanks, OG !

Regards

SP 500 resting back on the ol' triangle support line. Wouldn't it be a hoot if the breakout is shown to be a bull trap.

Re: Stelco Banruptcy

I can assure anyone that the "Air Cordoba" bankruptcy has much more political strings attached to it and attendant fraud associated with it than Stelco did. But I have a bias.

n2s- let me know when you're ready to write that book, i'll contribute a chapter or two...

OldGoat!!!!

Thanks a million for the RTT News gadget.
I really appreciate that.

Any recommended settings?

Bill

Nice Post on straddles, g034.

What Not To Do:

I'm going to share my recent experience with SRS and SKF, in that it illustrates more what not to do, than what to do.

These EFT's tend to trend up and to trend down, and if you play the right side of the trend (largely down) you will probably be OK. But the volatility inherent in a 2X fund makes this very challenging.

Like a few others here, I have developed the knack of buying at the wrong time within a cycle, and have seen some pretty sizable paper losses. But looking at the overall picture, it's hard to see how the financial or commercial RE picture will improve any time soon. Over the intermediate run, you'll probably see gains, if you hang in there.

Of course, it's hard to swallow a day where you go from +4 to -5 like last Friday. But it seems like better technical analysis - RSI and chart watching - are the next set of tools to add, to better time the entry and exit points. That said, anything under 100 looks like it will be rewarded, while anything over 116-120 should get a close trailing stop.

It's the stuff in between that has been whipsawing me!

So the recent history is: Entered SRS after a bounce at 113. It's hardly been in the black since then. Entered SKF at 108 after a bounce, that's been doing better. I'm likely to close both tomorrow regardless of the P/L, as this still looks like a market that wants to rally, in the face of a lot of bad news.

krishnamurtidude..

First you have to get the 'Red Phone' traders use to disseminate the inside news. That would be the fastest method of news and information. After that you have the sources provided above although at times even these are not quick enough.

Depending on volatility you may consider protecting positions with stop losses/stop limit orders. These can be tricky as market makers are known to swoop a market down to trigger them in order to pick up cheap shares and then let the market recover to previous positions.

Number2Son

There is certainly a possibility of late day wild-card that sends the market upwards (a CNBSC newsbreak or some other BS with flash redpanels next to it), but to me it looks like the panic buying button has been pushed too many times this week - too many people are now expecting the phantom buying to kick in late-day. When too many people are expecting that buying - the distribution takes place.

I would use ANY unexpected strength to bail on longs positions/sell covered calls/short.

This is the way I am seeing the action - not meant to be advice - just one persons opinion at face value. I'm finding more and more that it helps me to put predictions into words - and hear what others are seeing that I may be missing. It makes it easier to critique/tweak my approach later.

Happy trading!

Hey Billy, I don't think we're too far apart. A test of 1378-1380 that fails should send the markets sharply lower. I'm just skeptical we get that high again.

And if we go higher than 1380? Well, then it's back to the technical drawing board.

Wow, the $USD is just getting killed. It just keeps breaking down to new lows. What I just don't get is that the bond market could care less. Yields are down (prices up) along the whole curve. The bond market leads the $USD, whatever direction it goes, the dollar follows. It is crazy! Our currency should be of paramount concern and one seems to care about it in the least.

Buying potential CLF breakout on daily and intra-day

Well, Bill, if you consider this market is all about putting lipstick on a pig, maybe rouge is more accurate than you think?

Hi Bill,

I'm a rogue trader too! By the way folks, my Crystallex pick of a couple days ago has been working out fabulous, I hope you all bought in, even though I know you didn't. If you want a cool breakout scenario today, check out Kodiak Oil and gas (KOG)which I purchased this morning and it was acting well when I left for the library:)

2nd

Everything is in the VALUT...locked away forever.

[Fox Chaple..........Wooooooooow]

NOT.V 6.54 +9%

Canplats area play Galore announcement (CPQ CEO Bill Coulter is Chairman of Galore)

My company Capital Street Group is doing the financing

GALORE RESOURCES INC
Galore Commences Dos Santos Exploration Program
2/28/2008
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Feb 28, 2008 (Marketwire via COMTEX News Network) --

Galore Resources, (TSX VENTURE:GRI) announces the start of exploration on its newly acquired gold exploration project in the historic Concepcion del Oro gold mining district of central Mexico.

Galore's Dos Santos gold project comprises four groups of claims covering more than 1600 hectares and contains extensive evidence of alteration of the type associated with gold mineralization. Numerous historical prospect pits and trenches on the property also attest to the mineralization potential.

The Dos Santos property is located 20 kilometres north of Canplats Resources' discovery and 40 kilometres southeast of Goldcorp's Penasquito gold-silver base metal mining project in northern Zacatecas State, Mexico.

The exploration targets on the Dos Santos property are gold-bearing and silver-bearing skarn and manto deposits, which are hosted by Jurassic to Cretaceous sedimentary rocks of the Sierra Madre Oriental Transverse Ranges fold and thrust belt. This style of mineralization is associated with late Cretaceous and early Tertiary intrusions. The presence of jasperoid alteration on the property suggests the potential also exists for distal disseminated gold mineralization.

The exploration program will include mapping and bedrock sampling. A grid-percussion drill program is planned in overburden-covered areas. This will be followed by diamond-drill testing of targets outlined by analytical results and structure. Starting date for the diamond drilling will be determined by analytical results.

The program is under the direction of Octavio Gonzalez, Galore's Mexico-based Vice President of Exploration. Mr. Gonzalez is a former geology professor at the University of Mexico with extensive knowledge of the historic Concepcion del Oro area in Mexico.

The Dos Santos property is the first of Galore's planned series of Mexico acquisitions.

To find out more about Galore Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:GRI), visit our website at www.galoreresources.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Information The company expressly warns readers not to rely on the information herein for investment or other related purposes. Accordingly, any use of this information is at your own risk and without liability to the company.The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as either a public or a private offer or solicitation to purchase securities in the capital stock of Galore Resources Inc. The reader is referred to his/her professional investment advisor regarding investment or related decisions respecting the securities of the company. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority has passed on the merits of or reviewed the information contained herein.

SOURCE: Galore Resources Inc.

http://www.galoreresources.com/Investors/News_Releases/

..."Deutsche Bank (DB) , which already manages several ETNs, listed the new gold offerings on the NYSE Arca.

They are DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ),
DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP),
and DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ).

"The ETNs will be the first to offer investors short or leveraged exposure to gold," Deutsche Bank said.
ETNs are debt securities that have similarities to exchange-traded funds, or ETFs." ...

Long 1000 as of now.

Aurator,

Thanks for that ETN info. This is exactly what I've been looking for.

Regards

DGP.... Another critical piece of the ToG.

Aurator: Right on..good info I can make money with. !! YES.. Will DB have one for silver?

ALOHA !!

Tarheel quote ...
" ... From bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back into bondage."

We are now in the latter stages of the Democracy phase. There is no greater evidence as to where the USA is headed than the Bush FY 2009 Budget. It defines "apathy" !!! It screams "dependence" and it begs "bondage"! You get such "budgets" when accountability is missing.

Re: ETNs, any tax implications that Caraistas should be aware of? Especially in these gold ETN's?

If these make sense, they could be an easy way for mom and pops to hedge their gold exposure, trading around their core position without incurring the high cap gains tax.

Yen up 1.27% on the day. Got killed on my Euro shorts and bailed. Added more Yen. Expect Yen to accelerate as carry trade unwinds.

In gold, REAL gold makes the most sense to buy..., taking gains through buying inverse gold etn's may make sense.

CCJ follow up - the possible two bar reversal mentioned yesterday never materialized. CCJ up today.

Kaimu,

Indeed.

ETN taxes: I will have moved all of my long term money into a Roth IRA by this years end.

I just worry the Dems will try to tax the Roth or do something crazy like a national sales tax.

I need the ETN tax rules for short term money too.

ALOHA !!

Aurator ... More paper gold vehicles that will collapse in time. It will be interesting to see how much funds will be diverted from the so called "safety" of global government treasuries into "real money" debt issues like these ETFs and ETNs!!! Its all debt though isn't it? That's where everyone here is missing the boat ... HB&B knows what's real(real money is gold)and they are doing everything in their power to divert your attention and money away from physical gold and silver until they can horde as much physical as possible and then pull the rug out. Just knowing these ETNs are sponsored by Duetsche Bank is enough to make me stay away. Could there be a bigger faux anti-gold cabal than Deutsche Bank? YES!!! The only reason JP Morgan has not done this is because they are the custodians of GLD and SLV and that would be too big a conflict of interest even for HB&B.

I will look into these ETNs later ...

$spx - I have mentioned this before. The 38.2% retracement up from the lows (Oct highs to Jan lows) is roughly overlapping the the 23.6% retracement down from the recent highs to the 2002 lows. This is providing overlapping fib resistance to the S&P. Daily fib overlapping weekly/monthly can be quite strong. The recent low bounced off the 38% retrace on that monthly chart, btw.

I would be surprised if DB, GS, JPM, et al. are accumulating physical gold.

Then again, I've been surprised before.

Fatty, I think they ARE accumulating physical gold. They may be shorters in the futures market, but I don't think they are stupid. I think the "evil shorts" will be just the ones that end up owning most of the gold in the end game. Do you really think Goldman won't profit from the eventual vertical price increases? Or maybe it's just the partners that will profit, with the shareholders left holding the short of gold bag.

ALOHA !!!

go34 ... "Hedging" just means you're not all in! While you're busy hedging you're all missing out on the dwindling supply that you are so busy hedging against! Short term is excatly that. It works until it doesn't, but by then you'll be unhedged to long term.

To me its the real money "supply" ... not the paper bets!

Like moths to a flame ...

GREED IS GOOD! - Gordon Gecko

Agree some holdings of physical metals is a good idea. I started late but have a first bite. I want to accumulate more when I find a reasonable to hold it offshore. Hoping Bill can develop the Swiss Banker idea into a workable solution. I don't want to accumulate too much more here in the states.

The Perth Mint program is easy but the best deal cost wise is unallocated. I prefer allocated. Have looked at Bullionvault to hold in Switzerland, but have not yet acted.

I was reading some online discussion of holding a box in the free trade zone in Switzerland but have not followed through.

NIHD, looking for a possible move here if 41.30 busted to fill some space from yesterday.

Edit to earlier post: (CPQ CEO Bill Coulter is Chairman of Galore)

This is incorrect

CDO and ABX markets are down big last few days. IMO someone is trying to hold the market up for month-end or the Visa IPO. Risk aversion is everywhere, except equities.

Sorry, I should've rephrased my statement.

I'm sure GS will profit from any vertical runup in gold. The degree / timing is questionable, (they're not rocket scientists) and I just find the notion that they're actively stockpiling as much physical as they can get their hands on a bit far fetched.

I would expect they have some holdings, sure. Perhaps sizeable... but say, a concerted effort btwn large banks to deceive the public into ETFs and accumulate as much physical as possible? I'd be surprised. Can't rule it out completely, of course.

But I'd be surprised, that's all.

The CRB is up 8 points today (413). Everyday living is about to get expensive.

It feels like there is a crow bar wedge under the roof that may give way at any moment.

So it appears someone in the community interpreted what Bill posted about KRY as positive by looking at volume of KRY since the 2:50 posting. Sharkie I bet cornering the market.

Here is what Bernane said today:

"I do expect inflation to come down. If it doesn't, we will have to react to it."

What kind of a statement is that? Looks like he is just making a gamble by lowering interest rates. I thought he actually KNOWS that inflation will come down, but apparently he doesn't. This is not a good climate for the interest rate sensitive financials...

David V

Kaimu my friend, please let me clarify what I meant.

If I have $100,000 in physical gold that is keeping my socks warm, and gold rallies hard leading to a new value of $110,000, I may want to take those gains off the table without selling my gold. I could simply sell gold futures or mom and pop can now buy $10,000 worth of the inverse gold ETN. If my technical analysis is correct and the price of gold falls from the overbought condition, I would then sell the inverse gold ETN at a gain. If I then put that gain into more sock warmers, I would be able to compound my position without new moneys out of pocket, managing my position without ever having to sell my gold. We trade prices, right?

Regarding being "all in". In my many posts on gold here, most were made after a severe decline had many Caraistas scared and thinking of selling into the weakness. I have always suggested trading around a core position, taking gains into strength and adding into weakness, being bullish on the metal. Some of these posts were actually diametrically opposed to your views on further gold weakness with price targets of $700 and $600 that never occurred. So please don't say that I'm not "all in", there hasn't been a bigger gold bull on this site than me and I DO respect both you and your opinion on GLD.

I hope I'm not coming across as argumentative or negative here, that is not how I feel. I simply want to set the record straight and affirm my feelings on the strategy of buying weakness / selling strength with the new ETN's as a POSSIBLE tool for some Caraistas to manage their positions. We're a team, right?

Hope to buy you a Kailik soon.

Geoff

Obvious structural problems with Fed. Bernake says anything other than price stability and employment level "not my job". Dollar trashed... "not a problem". Oil priced in Euros "not a problem."

BB also has taken the belief that inflation is caused by rising prices and not expansion of money supply and credit.

A dangerous man to have in such a key position.

Billy Sundance : NICE CALL !! What say the leaves tommorow?

Bill

Your commentary the last couple mornings was great. It's refreshing to hear someone who actually knows something confirming my own thoughts. I understand/agree with it all EXCEPT I do not understand your "last one standing" comment re gold. If not gold, where do you see capital flowing to? It seems to me the only real safe haven in a ASM deflationary world. Thanks

Sorry Bill, cant allow the motorcycle production to go to Japan, just wont be the same !!!

On the daily, the SPX has pulled back inside its symmetrical triangle. This is a confirmation that the trend is reversing, imho. We now have a pretty tight range in which to operate.

I took some profit on my SDS trade -- it feels good putting one in the win column for a change. ; And I just don't like being too exposed overnight in these markets.

I also opened a vertical put spread on CTX this morning. A low risk trade given the premiums. I think this stock is going back to the low 20's before expiration. The volatility in the home builders has been simply unreal. And as I said yesterday, the technicals have finally reversed here and are once again in line with the very, very, very negative fundamentals of this sector.

Put/call ratio is in the stratosphere today.

With regard to commodities, I'll give everyone else a heads up when I finally jump on this runaway train. The weight of my jumping, though feather like, will be sufficient to throw the train off its tracks.

FWIW, the high cost of food and gas is a daily topic of conversation at my office. This is beginning to hit people in their pocketbooks hard. And I'm afraid the worst is yet to come.

FLS, oil play given last week rolling into close after earnings

Hi!

So PoG keeps crawling up in late session.

Nice.

The battlefield is being transferred to the 1.000 line now.

Expect serious volatility next week as we approach that level.

If, as and when 1.000 is touched, serious efforts will be made to sustain momentum.

For the record, I would like to say here that I am convinced that the breakout over 1.000 is INEVITABLE, and therefore do not plan to sell my long futures when faced with the incoming volatility.

Go34,

Agree with your strategy for long holders of phisical gold, which basically enables long term gold investors to benefit from market gyrations while not having to face the higher costs of phisical gold transaction, and potential liquidity issues.

Good call.

All,

It is a pleasure to be in your company.

keep cool!!!

maro - what was the price target on the latest symmetrical triangle?

Go34,

I only have with me the TA for the GLD ETF.

For GLD ETF, the price target for the breakout on the symmetrical triangle was 95,80, ie we are there now.

In a regular bull, this would be a nice sell, but this is a very serious bull, which will be more and more fuelled by short convering.

So, I see no reason to sell here, and that is why I have put up my previous post.

Cheers!

Gold trading: I will have to find the relevant articles, but Gold trades with increasing momentum with higher prices, as opposed to losing momentum as a typical stock does. Positive feedback effect I recall detailed well by Adam Hamilton.

EEMTrader

Thanks for the compliment. Its not everyday that I feel as in the zone as when I wrote the forecast for today. As for tomorrow, right now I am thinking more of the same - impatient shorts getting pushed out - no major moves but may trend down over the course of the day as funds shore up the books. Probably will see the "winners" run and "losers" get more compressed as a result of window dressing.

I was long FXP from $81.60 at end of yesterday, sold at $84.5 today and reloaded w/ a basis of $83.7 (Should of listened to my own advice and waited for the 2-handle, which did return briefly, but I couldn't wait). Holding overnight and probably into next week.

Good Afternoon All,

What a heck of a good day it turned out to be. First off, I think the KRY action of the past 2 days is fascinating. Out of the depths of obscurity I plucked this jewel based on my own, top secret criteria. Next, I buy a lot of stock and sit nervously as I realize that KRY is indeed a dog and that I may lose money. Just for the record, I still don't think theyre ever getting that permit but taht's besides the point. After announcing my purchase on here all I heard were moans. And I thinks to myself, this is a good test of "contrarian theory". No one wanted to touch the stuff. 2nd Ave picked up on this. And I suspected that I was on to something And you know what? The stock absolutely rocketed today off that nonsense press release. I actually played it twice. First I sold my original load too soon, I had no idea the move KRY would make today. But then it was ME who bought in the 4-oh's at about 3:25 when it krashed. Then I sold the second load into the close at an obvious and damn healthy profit.

Let's not fortget my other pick KOG Kodiak Oil and Gas. When I recommended that thing this morning it hadn't broken out yet, it was at 2.23 or so. Well, it did exactly what I knew that it would. It closed up about 15 cents and is setting up magnificent on the weekly and of course the daily. All I can say if, if this trading thing keeps going for me the way it's been going for me, and if I make the kind of money I am aiming to in this business, Bill and I are gonna be neighbors soon! (see you at Cousies for a rum!)

Utilities have been slipping. XLU may be down from a possible double top. This sector usually has the fixed income crowd following. It has a way to go, but seeing this develop has one thinking about the short long bond (T-O-G) move.

Initiating a small IRA position in the 30 yr Rydex inverse RRPIX fund with plans to add more in the future as the move develops. Not a recommendation, doydd.

KRY babies, REJOICE ....

and then explain please how KRY can be up 23% while GRZ (which already HAS the environmental permit) is only up 1%, and VAL.V (still exploring) is down 7%.

If something REAL in VZ regulatory environment had happened, wouldn't this have lifted "all VZ boats"?

sharkie- congrats...

For followers/holders of U.TO and uranium buffs in general:

"Canada uranium fund plans big purchase"

http://tinyurl.com/35hx2c

KRY was oversold daily/weekly/monthly, broke the downtrend line and popped. The news release added to the fire. Gammon resources was up 50% last few days after breaking its downtrend. Bottom fishing can pay if you can stomach it.

I was thinking about putting on a position in KRY but just had too many bad memories with this stock even to trade it.

Minefinders has been a good buy for me at 10. They will start mining next month. I've setup a screen for oversold gold/silver stocks that I am going to follow.

hey, cyderman -

I've got a deal for you. If you'll fill in the junior project's online form regarding golden phoenix, I'll make sure we cover that meeting for you at the Royal York.

Please write me: jockATbillcara.com

I have to admit that Bernanke seems to be the best thing that ever happened to gold but I find my mind wandering back to that time in the spring of '06 when everyone was hot on commodities and then had the rug pulled out, leaving gold to wander sideways for a year. I've been into it for a while, but I'm feeling cautious here, and am going to start looking for when the investment banks are bullish on it. That was the top that last time, I recall. Just one more thought for the mix.

g034 -

We'll be sure to cover TRE.

notice many posters making good calls recently-

billysundance- glad to see your takes in print, you've been reading the tape correctly and express your thoughts well...
davidv-> ABX downtrend does seem to be leading financials (absent fed-inspired spikes), looks like you had a good day after adding to XLF shorts yesterday...
and of course, maromatics on gold-> the only way to play gold right now is if you're already in play, IMO...no point in jumping into an endgame unless you enjoy the feeling of being clueless, right..so planning no position beyond watching from the sidelines...

Back to the Necline ??

Remember the Head and Shoulders pattern that started the trend reversal, well here's a couple of charts I put together just to see where we are.

Both the Dow and S&P have been up and down / sideways, sort of a mini triangle for the last few weeks. Interesting crossroads here as both have come back up to the 50MA and at the same time seem to be testing the old neckline as resistance for at least the second time.

Will this resistance hold ? or break and start a new uptrend against all the negative news.

Or maybe we just have a little false breakout then start the slippery slope again, me thinks, but won't know till it happens. I'm watching closely as to putting on shorts in this area.

$INDU chart
http://tinyurl.com/28tp43

$SPX chart
http://tinyurl.com/23qwzm

BillySundance : Good for you ..steady consistent profits...looks like FXP overnight is going to be another good call...Q's just fell thru the bottom in after hours..The Dell dude getting skinned..

you and ZENOB gonna send us "I love FXP/SKF" golf shirts anytime?

:)

"Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation Annual General and Special Meeting will be held on Friday, February 29, 2008 at 10:00 am (Toronto time) at Le Royal Meridien King Edward Hotel, Windsor Ballroom, 37 King Street East, Toronto, Ontario M5C 1E9." - I have just learned from the volunteer covering this company for the Juniors' Project.

An interesting, high-profile royalty company. If any of you Toronto natives who follow juniors are available and interested, this is a marquis company created by Jim Sinclair.

Write me at jockATbillcara.com and I can give you a way of getting briefed on the company quickly from the juniors' project's online form.

OG/jogyp- off to a late start today->if i had ssen questions earlier, my response would have been no reliable take on DUG/SMN: got squeezed out of FXP/TWM yesterday, and to clear my head took DUG/SMN (which were doing relatively well) off at the same time...in retrospect, would have done better selling DUG/SMN and adding to FXP/TWM..but that is the kind of trade one makes when on the right side and flush with confidence...i was caught on the wrong side, and mainly concerned with backing out as smoothly as possible...after backing out of positions, it takes a day or two for carryover bias to fade...my only buy today was to reopen a 20% (of normal) position in FXP...

Jock,
VAL is currently stuck in a trading range of 23 cents to 29 cents and is being supported at the low end by insider buying. FWIW, Pinetree bought 1.5 million shares at 35 cents in November. Disclosure: I'm overweight VAL and underwater. I am trying to average down to under 35 cents with small buys at 23 cents whenever I get the opportunity.

EEMTRader- not quite ready to run the presses yet on those FXP shirts (though when I do, I have a great friend who owns a screenprinting wharehouse!). Maybe one day.

Just noticed AIG is getting another walloping in AHs. How can people stand to hold this stuff!?!? I wouldn't touch financials with a 10-foot pole - holding financials is like flying an airplane blindfolded.

"...holding financials is like flying an airplane blindfolded.."

Yep and at 1000 ft thru the ALPS to boot.

Safer to not be there, or be there short, with stop.

the mon valley is a beautiful place...

springsteen's "youngstown" is one of my favorites, and the closing lines some of his best:

"From the Monongahela valley to the Mesabi iron range
To the coal mines of Appalacchia, the story's always the same
Seven-hundred tons of metal a day, now sir you tell me the world's changed
Once I made you rich enough, rich enough to forget my name

In Youngstown, in Youngstown
My sweet Jenny, I'm sinkin' down
Here darlin' in Youngstown

When I die I don't want no part of heaven, I would not do heavens work well
I pray the devil comes and takes me to stand in the fiery furnaces of hell.."

link to music/video:

http://tinyurl.com/2eyum2

first time i heard the song was driving down hwy 20 to ft bragg (CA)- the road drops steeply via twists and turns into dense forest, it's pitch black at night, and when your high beams sweep through the turns some of the redwoods look like they're about to stomp on your car...you emerge at sea level to the rocky beaches of mendocino county...can't separate the song from the drive...

isaiah- sorry, forgot to address the above post to your attention...can't wait to take my youngest someday on a road trip to places i haven't seen in 20 years...the monogahela valley will be one of the first...

2nd....too bad you were on the road this AM.
I posted GFI at 14.06, could have had it for 13.96 or so @ 5 AM.
Also MT and WFT. I listed my buys. MT wasn't a good buy for me but look where it is now. :>)
I had a great time with WFT sold, reloaded and am now holding on a breakout chart.

Sold the GFI @ $14.44, reloaded and I'm up again.

Also SLV was a knockout. Bought in a few days ago, sold some today and reloaded at the intraday low. Fransix must be a happy camper.

And SDS was berry good to me. Bought from support 59.75 down to 59.48, was a seller of 1/2 today.

Oh, and got into some GG on Bill's post this AM and did well trading it.

Added some SNDK today. AH looked scary but see go34's missive. 24.10 AH then back to 24.30's.

Had a good couple days. Dr. Elder rocks.

Oh, and GSS. Bought at 3.95 and it got to 4.30's today. You can own a lot of a $4 junior on a day like today.

ALOHA !!

g034 ... " ... If my technical analysis is correct." Thats a lot of "ifs" you have there! I already know you have a core gold position so that is not what I meant by "all in". My point is the IOUs you gamble on hedging takes away from the core position especially if your ETN trades go wrong. Long and short ... its all a gauntlet! I wrote an article about the UltraShorts SDS etc and they are exposed to derivatives and money merket funds and "illiquid funds" ... This is the kind of casino FIAT WORLD breeds.

Has anyone looked at the fine print on these ETNs yet? Or does everyone just dive in head first and like they used to say in Little League in my days ... "Just hit hard and hope!"

Check out your sock drawer mate ... Besides I still love ya! YEAH ... a bot of the "amber fluid" would go GREAT now! Cheers-s-s!!!!

JUNIORS AND PENSION FUNDS
While you guys are busy spending your money shorting POG and buying GLD I have been buying way oversold juniors. One things for sure the JUNIOR SECTOR is as dead as a dead dingos donga!!!

My eyes were opened BIG during my Australia trip to ONE THING and I now read today of a verification of a future trend starting here in the USA. This is why I am so involved in quality juniors and why Bill is positioning the CARA GROUP at PDAC.

I interviewed four different Australian junior miners and explorers while I was in Sydney and Perth. All of them had exposure to one source of funds the US and Canadian juniors do not. PENSION FUNDS ... Pension Funds accounted for some 10% to 15% of total shares held in almost every junior I looked at. The execs were more than happy to point that fact out I might add.

If you think it was all NewCrest and BHP think again ... Some of these juniors were trading for $0.55AUD and the FUNDS were buying them up! One had an oversubscribed funding.

Now I read this today ...

READ ON:
CALPERS to move into commodities in a big way. I've been waiting for about 5 years to see this article. This is just the beginning for big institutional money. If public employee and ERISA funds move just 1-2% of their money into mining stocks, the mining stock bubble that ensues will dwarf the internet/stock bubble by many multiples ...

Read's Strategy

Calpers, under Read's strategy to change the way it parcels out funds, said in December it planned to switch about 11 percent of its portfolio from stocks and bonds into assets including investments linked to inflation.

The fund, also facing pressure from state and local governments to boost returns, would reduce its fixed-income investments to 19 percent from 26 percent. The yield on the 30- year U.S. Treasury bond last month fell to the lowest since regular sales of the debt began in 1977.

The fund's commodity program will come under the inflation- linked asset class, McKinley said. Calpers will decide on the proportion of assets invested in commodities ``depending on market opportunities,'' he added.

Calpers plans to allow its staff to actively manage some of the commodity investments this year, McKinley said. END

Link: http://tinyurl.com/26e8re

If Australian Pension Funds are anything like the future direction of CALPERS then you will see quality junior explorers being bid up. From these current low-low price levels 50% monthly gains could get to be as routine as they were in the dotcom days!

Does anyone here use or look at 'miningpedia':

http://miningpedia.com/

shark,
I know your secret method. I know it involves a dead chicken and a live goat and you ought to be ashamed of yourself!

Actually, if you substitute the "Fade MikeNYC" method you might do even better.

Congrats on the picks. One could argue that KRY was so beaten down that it was due and the PoG was bound to push up all the juniors (I know that you put more thought into it than that,) but the KOG is all you and that call is a nice bit of work.

Did the "shark method" flash a buy on BMD yet?

shark's only posted one secret method-> the blue ones with the sharks on them...

Further to Quasi's chart of $INDU, here's a slightly different perspective. To me it looks like this week is the kiss goodbye.

http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/7634/dj30hi1.jpg

MikeNYC / Shark

re BMD, still watching it on one of my wkly / daily chart pages. Not ready yet but could get interesting any time.

BMD wkly / dly sum chart
http://tinyurl.com/3ypo99

Cyderman

great chart, but can you change the colors, for old guys like me I can't see all the annotations ?

If not its OK, I just gotta drag it to my other monitor and jack up the brightness to max.

Quasi,
I think they are a buyout candidate, and if that happens, it'll probably show up as increased volume before the news, no? You'll see it in your chart a day or two before. I think this is a fundamentally decent company with a solid asset. It's a matter of time, as you said.

MikeNYC, re BMD

"...it'll probably show up as increased volume before the news, no? You'll see it in your chart a day or two before.."

You mean the "insiders" will know and be trying to quietly act on that info,, but leaving a trail on the tape. Isn't this supposed to be a fair market, HA, HA.

I agree and watching for the signs.

re BMD- note the last 10 recorded insider transactions (involving 855,00 shares and 6 insiders) were in following category:

38 - Redemption, retraction, cancellation, repurchase

http://tinyurl.com/22pbr7

MikeNYC, BMD

Yep, seen it happen many times, they hold it here for a while, then announce the buy out at $1.00, a huge 30% premium to the current 20MA Just too bad for all the longs who held all the way down from $10, hoping it would come back. Sometimes they do, however its often under a different symbol with different shareholders.

Hi Cyderman -

That 1982 trendline is a little scary. Can you go into your read of this chart in more detail, short term and long term?

Thanks -

among the first of the bottom-callers for financials:

http://tinyurl.com/24jmox

preview of what the Aden sisters might be saying in vegas-

http://tinyurl.com/34pq58

" But the Adens do think something quite nasty is going on. They write: "The dollar may be forming a mini bottom and it could soon move up in at least a rebound rise. But that's probably the best the dollar will be able to do and it'll likely coincide with a downward correction in the gold price. Over the longer-term, it's another story. Even if the dollar index were to rise to as high as 84.40, it would still remain in a major bear market decline. But we don't think it'll rise near that high ... It has become crystal clear that the Fed is willing to sacrifice the dollar in order to avoid a recession."
The Adens think stocks may stabilize: "The market will be on firmer ground if the Dow Jones Industrial Average 26099400 and Dow Jones Transportation Average can now stay above their January lows at 11,970 and 4,140, respectively ... they would both turn bullish again above 13,350 and 4,850. Should that happen, it would be very good news and a strong sign that the worst is behind us."
They think gold may make a serious correction but that it "will likely be much higher before the year is over. And it'll certainly be a lot higher as the years ahead unfold."
Their current, fairly doomish, recommended investment allocation:

*
20% cash: euro; Swiss franc; yen; Singapore, Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars or currency funds.
*
40% gold and silver physical and exchange-traded funds and gold and silver shares;
*
40% energy and natural resource stocks."

2nd, re BMD

Yes I see, however I usually don't look at Canadian Insider as it gives such a narrow view, often misleading. Have you ever looked a Sedi, it does take a little more work but the detail is great.

I wasn't sure what to make of your link, so had to dig a little.

I just checked the first name on the list, Douglas Rowe, and yes on Feb 15, 140K of options were cancelled at strikes of $3.12 (expired 2007-06-14), $8.78 (expiry 2011-01-23). So the cancelled options had expired or would have probably never been exercised.

Now lets look back a couple of days to 2008-01-25 when he was granted 325K of new options, strike 57 cents (expiry 2013-01-25). Note the lowest close in the last 3 years + was on Jan 24th at 55 cents. His total shares & options currently stand at 750K

Not a bad deal if you ask me and a quick glance looks like they probably replaced all the useless options for everybody and at 57 cents thats a pretty nice bonus. Not so great for us outsiders thou.

g034
Re tnx. I had a nice ride on this stock from July 05 until Jan 06 , I haven't owned it since, but I think it is setting up again. I have registered to attend the special meeting Sinclair is having tomorrow, all things going well I will let you know what was said.

By the way Eastmain Resources is a stock I'm researching for the Cara 100 junior resource list you should all have a peak at their website, they are fishing where the fish are and they have an allstar investor group including Goldcorp and Sprott Asset Managament, Genuity has a target of 1.75 on the stock.

McEwen Capital put out their lastest edition of their Insite publication go to the US Gold site, it's worth the read, he is a class act. McEwen reminds me of your host Bill, and seeing them together they have a lot of respect for each other.

mikede,

Yes please do report what Sinclair discusses at the special meeting tomorrow. Very much looking forward to it. Thanks.

Quasi- thanks for looking into it...with oil prices where they are, maybe oil sands projects and limestone will be getting more play...

2nd

Yes I do like the oilsands, just wish they didn't suck up so much natural gas to produce it. Also a problem as most refineries have trouble with heavy crude, along with sour crude. Unfortunately thats about all thats left these days, light sweat going the way of the dinosours.

But at least its better than ethanol from corn which has an energy ratio of 1.25 at the best, negative in some cases, its a joke.

A unit of energy in to get only one out is not a solution its just a "make work project" with another set of problems.

Cyderman/Qasi/Wpeyton:

RE: DJI chart

Another couple of points of view on your DJI..if you throw up a chart of the DIA..today was a decline on low volume...

The pullback today COULD mean just a throwback to the declining line of the triagle..which if it reverses is a bullish pattern

OR

We are actually in an ascending triangle where the top is the resistance line..is at 127.45 on the DIA...connecting the bottom on 11/26 and 2/1 and yesterdays intraday high.

So 3 possible scenarios...and the market will let us know...just throwing it out there for those who havent made their minds up yet ..like me.

Either way the indices are ready to burst..one way or another..

There is also one other scenario..but I'll leave that one alone in the safety of my own imagination till it plays out or not.

hangover cures being promoted in vegas:

http://tinyurl.com/2fc6dn

"Among the newest products in the genre is 'Purple,' an antioxidant-heavy blend of seven different fruits that the company bills as a healthful drink on its own and one that can counteract the effects of excess to boot. And under the slogan "Detox while you tox," it is clearly the latter it is pushing heavily at this show.

"Ted Farnsworth, chief executive of the Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Purple Beverage Co., said that mixing it with alcohol actually gives the antioxidants more of a punch -- and he's willing to put his money where his mouth is.
While he said he encourages responsible consumption, Farnsworth vowed, "You drink (Purple) and vodka until you can't walk and if you have a hangover, I will buy it back from you -- including the vodka."

EEMTRADER, re INDU and SP

Yep I agree they are coiled springs, getting tighter. Now which way is HB&B going to direct / manipulate them, either way I'm sure we'll get a head fake first.

Now I didn't make up a chart for the COMPQ as its a different beast and never had a nice H&S pattern.

LOL! So he buys the purple back. Does he buy all the vodka or what's left?
If you drink vodka until you can't walk there probably shouldn't be much left to buy back.

How is purple with porceline?

I'll spare you my tequila stories.....
Thank goodness some of us live to grow up.

QUASIQUASI: The Naz and the RUT is in its own world, and throes of agony & ecstacy..that kinda hints to which ones DA BOYZ are supporting for now anyway..how ironic..the NAZ with no financials look the worse...a descending traingle.

which goes to say..i think the FED is more concerned about financial failure then a consumer recession...but thats my own lone gunman theory...LOL

what do I do now?

I don't post much during the day here because I don't trade that often, but I do try to watch you guys and thouroughly appreciate what Bill has done here for everyone. I get nervous because this market seems extremely volitile to me and I don't feel that I can trade it anymore. I'm at a crossroads I think though and need some advice.

I got real nervous in August and sold pretty much everything (mostly tech) in my trading account and opened a pretty large position (for me) in GLD between 65 and 67. At the time that seemed like a lot for gold but it felt like the right thing to do.

Obviously it's done well, and I haven't added to it, though I wish I would have many times. doh! I just kept waiting for another pullback that never really came. dangit.

I also bought some junior gold shares that looked slaughtered at the time that have also done well for me, though not as well as the metal did. I put about 40% of my trading capital in gold then and kept the rest cash and haven't changed anything since except for trading one for another occasionally. Everything I bought in the gold space has produced at least a 10% gain since then.

In late October I got really nervous though and transferred all of the mutual funds in my 401K into cash (CD account) and I'm glad I did. It's held steady with a small gain. Preservation of capital if you will. At that point I also started adding SKF and a little QID in the trading account which has also done very well so far for me.

I personally don't think the fundamentals have changed for the market and so I'm sort of frozen as to what to do next. I don't know where to put the cash to make it work and I don't have the time to go in and out on a daily or even weekly basis. Besides, the market is making no sense these days.

I've got the majority of my capital in cash at this point in both my 401K and trading accounts and I am tempted to buy more gold. Mostly I want to buy junior producers. I feel like a pullback for that is emminent and at the same time know that I've felt that way all along and it never seems to happen. But if I jump in with both feet I guarantee it will.

I know I don't have much choice in the 401K but I'll figure that one out based on how the trading account does, except that most of it is a debased US dollar just wanting to find a safe home.

Since this is the only place on the internet that I would trust financial advice, given this scenario, what asset class whould be your choice at this point in time?

Re: what do I do now?

Light a cigarette and see if the bus comes.

EEM/Qasi/Wpeyton
H&S top typically gets a retracement to the neckline, though I don't know if there's any significance to the fact that its revisited it twice.
My thought on the break of the trendline from 1982 (note that its not a particularly good TL, as there aren't many points of contact) is that it fits with the ToG. The early 1980's were a time when the Fed had backbone under Paul Volker, and chose to fight inflation. The period since then has corresponded to a fall in bond rates (i.e. free market interest rates) which I think ended on Jan 23, when I think the CBOE 30year Treasury index put in an island reversal low. If yields on T bonds rise, they constitute competition for the really big money (pension funds) that typically flows into the big cap stocks, so I see the end of the bull since 1982. Where does it go? If only I knew :-(
Frankly, I'm attracted to the chart someone was good enough to post (sorry, can't remember who, perhaps Fransix) showing the Dow/gold ratio. The current value is around 13. The lower trendline on that chart now has a value of around 2, so perhaps it rises to 3, as the scale on the chart is semi-log. That could see the DJ30 around 9000 and thus gold at 3000, or 6000 and 2000, the actual numbers don't really matter yet, its the direction that counts.
If the DJ30 breaks back above the neckline and back above the trendline (from 1982)and stays there, then I'm wrong. Period.

Is he smoking crack or what? Give me a break...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080228/bernanke_congress.html

Anyone short Gold, is screwed; Royally!
And clueless in the longer run, and why we are here to begin with. ;) They hate to have egg on face. They are clueless young traders thet thought they'd get rich. They are clueless in the market that now has the ability to kick their Arse , easily. And I'm proud to be part of this debacle!

We will own you and no Oil play will save your sorry arse. Just wait. Friggin' Morons.

!~

I dcoubled SKF today, and added a nice slug
of DGP.

Wednesday the wheat futures hit the skids. Now it looks like some rogue trader, or is it rouge trader, hedged 15,000 wheat contracts before MF Global's limit security software discovered it and had to unwind their positions on Wednesday. Makes you wonder how many purge hits it takes to move these market prices one direction or the other. In actuality, the plunge protection team is nothing more then a rogue trader without any limit over sight involved.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/29/business/29wheat.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

Somebody sent me a Format mb email; and I'm' screwed so far.

It's sad we can't have a blog session without expert IT carpet bombing. And espionage.

I'm still gonna waste your sorry arses with long
Gold if it's my last gasp of air. And it might be. And I ain't done.

Aurator

Mikede,

Being based in Europe I obiously cannot attend Jim Sinclair's meeting, and would be thankful if you could share with the community what was discussed.

Thank you in advance.

Cheers!

Cyderman

Yep its normal and expected that the neckline, previous support be tested and retested and then proven as now resistance. (until it isn't)

The spring is coiled, will it hold, the more tests the tighter the spring and the larger the move, either way when it lets go.

Dow / Gold, yes I saw that also, remember there were comments about whether it was inflation adjusted or not. Anyway its a chart many people don't look at, as it shows most US investments have been going down for a long time, when measured in virtually any currency outside the USD.

Gold by itself has been flat to moderately up in most other currenies, of course world Gold is priced in the currency which has lost value the most, USD (wooden nickels).

You can make these charts yourself at Stockcharts, the link below should work. Although if you're not a member you will only get a short term chart.

Stockcharts indu/gold chart
http://tinyurl.com/2yeth8

Image 1982 - 2008 indu/gold chart
http://tinyurl.com/2yh5om

Aurator

You been into the sauce tonight ??

Sorry if you think it is somebody here that's carpet bombing your email.

As for gold long term I agree, but there will be times (for a few days or weeks) where being short will be a good trade.

I'm not a daytrader so will stay long until the trend changes. As for my palladium (PDL.to) I'm very close to the reduce button, just been a little too vertical lately, then reload.

Interesting article in CNN.
"DEFCONOMY" is the keyword.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/02/28/beck.commentary/index.html

"Let's compare the financials of two stocks: MBIA (MBI) which has Moody's top rating of Aaa and Pfizer (PFE) recently downgraded by Moody's to Aa1 and by Fitch to AA-Plus from AAA. Here are two recent downgrades of Pfizer."

http://preview.tinyurl.com/2waftf

gdiman -

There is nothing wrong with cash. You are probably making 4% in money market. No reason to not stay that way till you get some positive feelings.

Market has a way of finding new levels quickly...so...you may not have to wait too long.

Early this morning CNBC's Gasparino "reported" a significant snag in the Ambac rescue negotiations. This "news" sent the futures into a tailspin.

Recall that a week ago to the day, Gasparino's reckless reporting that Ambac was close to finalizing the deal caused the markets to soar.

So now, as many of us fully expected, the deal is still under negotiation and may not happen at all.

Something is fundamentally wrong here.

I don't know what to make of this, but this is from Bloomberg this morning:

Crystallex, Royal Bank, Superior Plus: Canada Equity Preview
By John Kipphoff

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose shares may have unusual price changes in Canada. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names, and prices are from yesterday's close in Toronto.

The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index gained 95.51, or 0.7 percent, to 13,873.89.

Crystallex International Corp. (KRY CN): The gold miner received an environmental permit for its Las Cristinas mine in Venezuela, Correo del Caroni reported. Neither Crystallex nor Venezuela's Ministry of the Environment have announced that the permit was issued, the Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela-based newspaper said yesterday. Calls to Toronto-based Crystallex after business hours weren't returned. The shares gained 18 percent to C$2.12.

Is that just more of the same non-denial denial?

Money in MM....how can it make 4% if the USD fell 3% in the last week?

Do you pay taxes on the 4%?

BMO Investorline bid on KRY is set to open at 2.47. Of course that could change!

KRY opened at 2.22, falling back now.