http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080227/fnm10-k.html

FNM 10K

Our financial results for 2007 were severely affected by the disruption in the mortgage and credit markets during the second half of 2007 and continued weakness in the housing markets. We recorded a net loss of $2.1 billion and a diluted loss per share of $2.63 in 2007, compared with net income and diluted earnings per share of $4.1 billion and $3.65 in 2006, and $6.3 billion and $6.01 in 2005.

Our financial results for the first half of 2007 differed markedly from our financial results for the second half of 2007. For the first half of 2007, we recorded net income of $2.9 billion and diluted earnings per share of $2.72. The second half of 2007, however, was marked by significant disruption and uncertainty in the housing, mortgage and credit markets. For the second half of 2007, we recorded a net loss of $5.0 billion, as market factors such as significant increases in serious delinquency rates and foreclosures, home price declines, widening credit spreads, shifts in interest rates and illiquidity in the capital markets had a material adverse effect on our results, more than offsetting the income we earned in the first half of the year.

The following factors had the most significant adverse effect on our 2007 financial results:

• an increase of $2.8 billion in our provision for credit losses, excluding the component of our provision attributable to fair value losses recorded in connection with our purchase of seriously delinquent loans from MBS trusts pursuant to Statement of Position No. 03-3, Accounting for Certain Loans or Debt Securities Acquired in a Transfer ("SOP 03-3"), which are referred to in this report as "SOP 03-3 fair value losses";

• an increase of $5.1 billion in market-based valuation losses, including derivatives fair value losses, losses on certain guaranty contracts, SOP 03-3 fair value losses and losses on trading securities; and

• a decrease of $2.2 billion in net interest income.

The effect of these adverse factors more than offset the favorable impact of an increase of $821 million in our guaranty fee income.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40767

a HUGE pile of short commodity ETFs coming on board...will this make them go even higher?

"Mish" rips Bill Gross:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

re the inflation scenario (from last night)-

Appreciate the input from all who weighed in on the discussion to clear up errors in my logic:

Freedom57 points out a) shorting is not equivalent to going long a short/ultrashort fund…the difference lies in who’s holding the cash, and b) whether/where the cash is invested…

SteveC correctly points out that holding an ultrashort would result in a double hit should the index rise and the dollar decline…not knowing the structure(s) of the derivatives underlying the TWM, would definitely have to assume the worst: fund managers are only obligated to match 2x the inverse of the IWM…any incidental benefit derived from a decline in the USD will undoubtedly line the pockets of fund managers->so a 10% rise in IWM coupled with a 12% drop in the USD would give you a pretty lame one-year return…

If you’re convinced, for example, that the Russell 2000 will drop 10%, the USD will decline 12%, and gold will rise 15%, then one trade would be to short IWM, and invest the proceeds in GLD/bullion…would the present value of a $10,000 short then be [(10,000) * (1.15)]/(1.12) minus [(10,000) * (0.9)/1.12] = 2232? That would be a 22% return, not bad at all…

Re. "If you’re convinced, for example, that the Russell 2000 will drop 10%, the USD will decline 12%, and gold will rise 15%, then [...] That would be a 22% return, not bad at all…"

This is only of you are a US citizen and one that never goes out of the US. Last year I did not make any money with gold because I used CAD. Brazilians did even worse.

GFI - Today's range (thus far) on JSE (values approximate after currency conversion): 14.03-14.49USD

Bill - Did you catch my note at bottom of yesterday's discourse re updated Creative Commons License?

Two interesting articles, one on water the other food.

http://tinyurl.com/2y4fd4

http://tinyurl.com/2twqom

Interesting post rob d. Those short etf's are only available to non-US investors it seems. Is that correct or is there a way to buy them through U.S. accounts?

Good morning crap shooters.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

TEF - to Buy @ UBS

Downgrade:

ABX - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

Target Price Raised:

GG - $36 to $44 @ RBC
SLW - $18 to $20 @ RBC

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day but please exercise caution. As others have noted, there seems to be a huge disconnect between prices/fundamentals going on right now.

Ok, here's your daily dose of bad news:

First up, mortgage applications remain weak:

http://tinyurl.com/2k4dck

Durable goods drop farther than expected:

http://tinyurl.com/3ytaee

And, as noted above, Fannie Mae reports a $3.5B loss:

http://tinyurl.com/2ldbh7

Bernanke speaks today, but I doubt the markets can expect a lift from his testimony. He looked like a man under a death sentence last time he appeared. And why does he spend so much time on Capitol Hill anyway?

There's also the Ambac rating saga that has yet to resolve itself. Remember, CNBC's Gasparino said we would have a deal by Tuesday. It hasn't happened, no doubt because Moody's has so far refused to guarantee the Aaa rating.

As Nouriel Roubini noted in a recent interview, the ratings agencies have lost all credibility. Maybe Moody's thinks if they hold off a bit longer that will indicate some spine. It won't.

n2son, their credibility is zero. Shorting MCO looks like a very interesting proposition. Let the lawsuits begin.

More bad news. Toll Bros (TOL) reports larger than expected losses.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080227/toll_results.html?.v=2

Toll has been cited as one of the more resilient builders, given it services the high-end of the market.

This puts yesterday's surge in the sector in some perspective, doesn't it? Ironically, the absurd "foot traffic" meme was floated last year at this time, sparking a rally that proved to be a golden shorting opportunity.

Have the builders bottomed? Don't believe it for a second.

Three weeks ago Fannie was going to save housing by upping their mortgage limits to 720,000 - does anyone remember that . The charade is wearing very thin.

not sure alan; it popped up in my RSS reader this morning and I thought fellow Caraistas would want to know...it looks like they will be listed in London, but I would bet they make their way over here soon. Even so, the commodities game will be changing.

Doesn't Buffet own Moody's? Why would he want to give them AAA if he wants their business (the good part, anyway)?

Bill, I am pounding the table on the eur/jpy cross running our markets. The Dow and the currency trade are like two kissing cousins. The bizarre credit swaps announced by lying Ben and tricky Jean this December are a conduit for laundering that money withoutdestroying the dollar vs. the Euro before summer. Simply, the Japanes won't invest in the dollar directly anymore. The Treasury auction next two days will show how little willingness there is to invest in the american peso. If it is done, it is only political maneuvering now.

FXP- opening a position at 86.35...

Bill it's not just HB&B that causes concern with the monetary system that is in place today. Their is a threat from the political clique also. Why do people like Hillary spend 85 million (so far) to be elected to an office that supposedly compensates $150,000 per year plus free room and board???? Political philanthropy maybe?

NY Times article

Ashcroft to Testify in Congress on No-Bid Contract for His Firm

By PHILIP SHENON
Published: February 27, 2008
WASHINGTON — Former Attorney General John Ashcroft has agreed to testify to Congress about a multimillion-dollar no-bid contract steered to his consulting firm by the Justice Department under an out-of-court settlement between federal prosecutors and a medical-supply company, Congressional officials said Tuesday.
Mr. Ashcroft agreed to testify before the House Judiciary Committee in the face of the committee’s threat to issue a subpoena to compel his testimony. Congressional officials said the committee hoped to schedule the hearing for next month.
Mr. Ashcroft, who left the Justice Department three years ago, had initially declined the committee’s invitation to testify this month about his monitoring contract with the medical-supply company in Indiana, Zimmer Holdings, which agreed to hire an outside monitor in settling accusations that it paid kickbacks to doctors who agreed to use its equipment.
The 18-month monitoring contract, worth $28 million to $52 million, was directed to Mr. Ashcroft’s firm, the Ashcroft Group, by the United States attorney in New Jersey, Christopher J. Christie, without any bidding process.
The disclosure of Mr. Ashcroft’s consulting agreement drew protests from Congressional Democrats, who said it suggested favoritism in the Justice Department, already under scrutiny because of a series of disclosures about the influence of politics in the hiring and firing of federal prosecutors.
During the Bush administration, the department has increasingly made use of similar monitoring agreements to settle criminal charges against corporations that might in the past have resulted in indictments and trials.

maromatics makes the right call on gold again...

number2son,

"Moody's has so far refused to guarantee the Aaa rating."

Moodys confirmed yesterday.

http://tinyurl.com/36ejl8

Anyone that is interested in getting into a top quality infrastructure stock may want to look at FWLT. Sitting right at a low risk entry point.

Out of my nibble of SKF at 108.07. Up 3 dollars and change from my entry. I'll take it. Now I just hope they manage to rally this thing one more time so I can pull up a chair to the SKF buffet. lol

Alexa only counts the traffic from users who have the Alexa 'spyware' installed. I would advise you use 'google analytics' to track website traffic. The difference is that Alexa tracks a limited pool of users, and google tracks anyone who goes to your site.

You'll be amazed at the data google analytics will give you.

Bill, you might want to switch to using Google analytics instead of Alexa. I've tinkered with it some and it seems to be pretty slick.

JIM

the aritcle you posted states that
Moody's has confirmed AAA rating for MBIA
there is no mentioned at all of a downgrade to
Aaa.

even the title in the aritcle is opposite of what you posted, and the comment you placed in quotes isnt taken from the article itself.

was it a wrong article you linked to?

Good morning

I have just updated one of my studies on long-term returns. Based on a multi-year comparison of the PE ratios of the S&P 500 Index and the forward real returns, the stock market certainly doesn't look cheap, arguing for luke-warm long-term returns. As a matter of fact, there is a distinct possibility of some negative returns.

The URL is:http://tinyurl.com/2k5jst

dr. cosa,number2son,

My mistake. Got my bond insurers mixed up.

Any chance to get FXP below 80s this week? Below $83.70 right now, I am holding off.

The link didn't work as suposed to in the previous comment. Here it is again:

I have just updated one of my studies on long-term returns. Based on a multi-year comparison of the PE ratios of the S&P 500 Index and the forward real returns, the stock market certainly doesn't look cheap, arguing for luke-warm long-term returns. As a matter of fact, there is a distinct possibility of some negative returns.

The URL is: http://tinyurl.com/2k5jst

HGD back on the watchlist...

FXP- adding at 83...

Hello - Euro / Dollar broke 1.51 this morning which surprised me. Anyone saw news explaining this move?

I see Bernake doesn't understand he has to turn "OFF" the cell phone or the microphone will buzz. Add to clueless list. What a dynamic speaker... hehe.

Here is an interesting article on the Brazilean Real and a Cara 100 stock ABV

http://seekingalpha.com/article/66293-run-with-the-real-on-these-brazilian-stocks-abv-and-cpl?source=feed

(Found on newsflashr at seekingalpha)

shorts being walked out to the parking lot (yes, that includes me)...

...and handed a shovel and told to start digging.

Cooltrader, here is on person’s take on the dollar tanking from Gartman (not one of Bill’s favorite oracles). Basically, it’s a weakening economy and rising inflation.

Dr. Kohn
knew precisely what he was saying, and he knew that his
comments would be on centre stage immediately. He
said, simply that a weak and weakening US economy
was, and is, a far greater concern than is the concern of
higher inflation. In the process, the stock market rose
swiftly, believing that lower rates lie ahead while the dollar
broke as the central bank appears ready and willing to do
what it can to battle "difficult [economic] times."
The crux of Dr. Kohn's comments can be found in final
two paragraphs, reported below:
These have been difficult times for the U.S.
economy. The correction of excesses in sectors
of the economy and financial markets has spilled
over more broadly. Growth has slowed, and
unemployment has increased; both borrowers
and lenders are facing problems, and the
functioning of the financial markets has been
disrupted. At the same time, inflation has risen. I
believe we will see a return to stronger growth,
lower unemployment, lower inflation and
improved flows in financial markets, but it
probably will take a little while. And adverse risks
to this most likely scenario abound: Uncertainty
could trigger an even greater withdrawal from
risk-taking by households, businesses, and
investors, resulting in more pronounced and
prolonged economic weakness; events beyond
our borders could continue to put upward
pressure on inflation rates [Ed. Note: Emphasis
ours.].
But we should not lose sight of some
fundamental strengths of our economy. Our
markets have proven to be flexible and resilient,
able to absorb shocks, and quick to adapt to
changing circumstances. Those markets reward
entrepreneurship and risk-taking, and many
people are looking for opportunities to buy
distressed assets and restructure and strengthen
businesses to take advantage of the economic
rebound that will occur. Monetary policy has
proven itself, under a wide variety of
circumstances, very effective in recent decades
in damping inflation when needed and in
stimulating demand and activity when that has
been appropriate. Our job at the Federal Reserve
is to put in place those policies that will promote
both price stability and growth over time. We
have the tools. As Chairman Bernanke often
emphasizes: We will do what is needed [Ed.
Note: Once again, emphasis ours.].

The news that spiked the market seems to be that Fannie and Freddie portfolio caps will be lifted March 1st.

Freddie and Fannie up 20% on news of their impending bankruptcy. Loan limit raised, and reserve requirement lowered. Goodbye.

GFI - High so far today 14.36

The average American currently owes $4,200 on their cars than what the cars are worth. Many of these people could walk away from their loans. Who is the largest car loan provider? Is there any company that specializes in this segment?

Goat.. that this was a bear market, I was correct. That I went short was prudent. That I was early cost me a lot of money.

I think you know to whom I am alluding.

Allon Therapeutics up 55% (NPC.to).

cal - No idea.....

btw, if anyone is interested in who is the architect of this evil.. pull up the eur/jpy cross right now.. it just ran up a pole, same time as the Dow. coincidence?? I think not. The bearded clown in front of Congress has about 50 billion dollars of reserves.. you might as well get Britney Spears up there.

Looking at some VIX calls. At 22; went to 150 in 1987. Mar 3 latest projected turn date.

Goat.. I think the year was 1903.

2nd : Watch BIDU and FXI correlation..

Anyone have a favorite large cap ETF? I am looking at DGT, NY and JKD. I think the economy is stronger than the headlines would have you believe. I am reducing my precious metal holdings and my gold stocks. Also oil related stocks. When the speculative froth is swept away I may get back in.

I love to read all of your comments. Wish I had more time to do it.

Continuations -

When the short conviction declines enough, then the short will work.

Bonds - IEF (7-10 year Treasury) ETF is finding horizontal support at just above $88. It gapped higher and found resistance at a downtrend line today. The eventual breakout of these levels bears watching, IMO, and if significant, will be important to equity and commodity prices.

Stocks - I have mentioned this before. I significant number of market participants see stocks as a way to protect against inflation at low levels. They are the new traders that have been taught that gold is evil. I know it shouldn't be this way, but there is a scenario where massive pushes of liquidity will rally the stock market in an inflationary environment. Using history as a guide, stocks and bonds should fall while gold and various commodities rally, but that may not work out this time. We could see gold AND stocks rally while bonds fall, but bonds can't fall too far or the interest rates will be too high to stimulate risk taking in stocks.

It seems to me that the trade should revolve around being long gold, long the yield curve (long short term, short long term bonds) and trading the stock market from the short side with some "special situation" long stocks sprinkled in. The toughest part of that trade is shorting stocks, there are forces against you that make this trade difficult.

Of course, all of this may turn out to be just mental diarhea because in the end, you simply watch the tape anyway. Right Vad?

get out of those shorts....looks like a bull flag forming...

GFI - 14.50

Started FXP @ $81, looking for a lower price maybe. Still holding SDS, DUG for a gain.

SLV in the $19's. Breakout yesterday. ;)

FXP is trending down nicely but SKF is wanting to go sideways. I was wanting to get my next plateful of SKF down in the 90s.

DBA all over the place in the last few minutes.

Zenob: Better short ..XLf..FXI looks like it broke out of its trading range..dont know whether its going to rock from here..its late following the SPX...so look at the charts...they will guide you...

Zenob...

Been watching SKF...I was hoping for a bounce from around 102.00...

Don't know if it will last or if we get any bounce, but I am also watching...

If we get into the 90's I would consider it a gift...Like 1000.00 GOLD

Zenob..psst watch that trendline break though on the XLF on the daily..either way..becareful in a tape that is stronger than the news,,,doesnt mean it wil last...just becareful

Any thoughts on using Treasury bill ETF BIL to stash idle brokerage cash instead of letting it sit in the broker's hands?

Wheat May contract all over the place too. Low to high of 1079 to 1349 last 1315 in fast conditions.

I thought the limit move was just raised to 60 di that change again? Last 1289 on delayed basis.

SteveC: Idle cash sitting safe is not what you have; you have a 100% allocation to one of the worst investments, the US Dollar. I use GLD or FXF.

DBA....watch DBC. Jumped $1.00 in seconds, perhaps a fat finger? Worked to my advantage....

I see they are both back again. Reloaded DBC.

I already took my gains off my SKF I picked up yesterday. Still holding my nibble of FXP, I'll add more to it later. I still think I'm holding out on a 90s handle on SKF though before I jump back in.

GFI - Out @ 14.62; no doubt I've exited too soon.

Depending on how good my charting skills are, it looks like FXP has dropped below it's lower trendline. If this is the case it doesn't really have any support till it hits around 75...

LOL, this is the greatest Onion piece ever.
http://tinyurl.com/3797sh

Zenob: Look at FXI when doing an analysis..it has more volume...does FXI look bullish to you? Is it trying to turn the corner? Is it trying to break out of its trading range? whether it succeeds with teh break out ..tells you whether FXP is a good buy not the price level alone...

Gary Aguirre, the former SEC Attorney fired for investigating John Mack and central figure in a minimum of two GAO Investigations into the Securities and Exchange Commission, has drafted a memo to Senators Dodd and Shelby of the Senate Banking Committee. The letter again details the conflicts at the SEC and raises questions about how long the SEC has been aware of banks inappropriate accounting of their subprime liabilities.

Read the entire memo here;

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/211

Ron Paul is giving Bernake hell!

Aurator, yes he is. :)

I spoke too soon last time. This time Minneapolis hard red spring wheat is down 10%. http://tinyurl.com/35gdfj Is the party finally over?

My FXI chart is showing that it's right at it's upper trend line but hasn't broken(about 155). RSI looks a little warm but the MACD hasn't turned ugly yet.

And again, this depends on me having my charts setup right and reading them correctly. :-)

Ron Paul is currently doing an excellent presentation (as usual) on CNBC, and hectoring Ben Bernanke on how he (Bernanke) can focus on prices, without taking into account the value of the US dollar. Paul points out that all fiat currencies eventually end in failure. Perhaps through repetition his message will eventually reach the public. The comments were short, about 5 minutes, and probably will be available on video later.

Regarding FDIC insurance - good post from Mish

http://tinyurl.com/2l4vjq

Bernanke dodge the question by saying he is mandated by "price stability" criteria. However, Ben did say that if the price of oil is not contained and goes higher that inflation would rise also.

Let's face it his head (Ben's)is in a vise that's squeezing. He just trying to deal with the problems Greenspan and congress created.

Let's bring back Paul Volcker.

You know on second thought, I vote for Ron Paul for Federal Reserve Chairman.

Bill Cara said: Does anybody see any of the leading Republican or Democrat candidates for President speaking like this on our behalf?

Why not? Think about it.

Why not is because those running for President will be the new leaders who will perpetuate the current machinery that would rape your mother and rape your children of their future.

Bill, I think about it plenty. Ron Paul took it easy on the bearded clown today. I would like to see him tell the lying thief how it really is.

Don't you just hate the fact that Ron Paul is one of the few true defenders of the free market -- and yet has a snowballs chance in you no where. But heck, I voted for Ross Perot when he described NAFTA as a "giant sucking sound."

On another note, I am itching to short DBA and MOO as it looks like capitulation. Someone talk me out of it...

I would like to see Paul ask why the foreign central banks of Japan and China are setting our economic policy.

Interesting chart that shows which banks had the highest incidents of ID theft.
http://tinyurl.com/3a4a66

Bill,
Who's doing these Senators' jobs during the two years they are stumping for President? IMO the only job of a politician seems to be to get elected. To achieve this he/she needs to market and sell a product that the majority of voters want and can understand. "What's in it for me!" I agree that Ron Paul's message is on the mark but, it didn't get him any votes.

Hi 2nd!

Thank you for your kind comment.

Re PoG: no reason to sell now. Let the cash roll in...

Here is what I am listening to as I count the cash rolling into my futures account:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDTV1ZeRBJw

ELEVATION!!!!!!!!

:-)

Keep cool...

While I appreciate the Good Doctor grilling a quick Bernanke Burger for lunch, IMHO, he let Ben off the hook too easily.

He got his sound bite, but Dr. Paul missed a golden opportunity to expose the Fed for what it really is, with what could have been a several hours long Texas Barbeque, with the whole world watching.

Just my 2 cents.

Watching Bernanke on CNBC on my other monitor.

I don't usually watch CNBC, boy do I wish they would turn off all the noise.

I don't need to see 100's of a second on the charts, don't need oscillating charts / graphs and don't need all the audio alerts every time something flashes or changes on the screen.

BBD and ITU have just been on a tear the last few weeks.

I think Bernanke views himself as some kind of financial engineer making the pressure by the administration to keep the machine running non-distasteful to him. I have this opinion by reading his past papers on the Great Depression.

On the other hand, I think Paulsen views himself as a "Master of the Universe" in the ultimate position to run the world while enriching his friends and "former" industry. He may not be too happy right now, btw. This opinion comes from 20 years experience in the markets.

Both men probably think that they can navigate the current storm successfully but of course I have not spoken to either, so these are just my opinions.

Both parties are in debt to their supporters who are NOT the general public. Ron Pauls supporters are those that want the truth to come out.

Bloomberg has the entire Bernanke testimony. I'm not sure why people want to watch it on CNBC, unless you don't have access to bloomberg. If that is the case then open the following link in what ever media player you have on your computer.

mms://media2.bloomberg.com/btv_US200_n.asf

Here's one You Tube video of the Ron Paul commentary:

http://tinyurl.com/2dm2o8

Bill
Ron Paul pod cast was just posted on cnbc.
He was still drilling Bernanke about the devaluation of the dollar. Bernanke didn't answer like he did last time, "I just don't know." I guess it's easier to just ignore the falling dollar for Bernanke, by quoting "price stability."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=666233060&play=1

Quasi,

You can watch it on CSPAN on the internet:

http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/schedule.csp

Click on Senate Live then click "Watch"

gdx on a tear

Hi,

Just watched Ron Paul questioning Ben.

You guys should elect Ron Paul as your President.

maromatics- it's easier to stay cool at the higher elevations, my man...

as mentioned yesterday, friday will be end-of-month...may eject soon if things don't cool down..

DBA/MOO: How can you short commodities with a shrinking USD and shortages of grains and increased animal protein demand?

It takes more grain to produce animal protein than it yields. Then add fuel production from grains in this country.

I would be interested to hear a counter view.

go34: Last night you mentioned you put cash in T-Bills. Can I ask what term?

The grain situation is why I see ethanol based alternative fuels as nothing more then a boondogle. We couldn't meet our energy demands if we converted ALL of our grain into ethanol plus every bushel of grain we take to make ethanol is one less bushel available for food stock/live stock which just drives up the cost of both. I don't see any kind of upside to it.

Craig: Crowded trade. Value of stocks will plummet when hedgies pull the plug. DBA is futures and should be safer than commodity related stocks. I bailed based on parabolic blow off top on CRB index.

http://tinyurl.com/22p8fj

Craig - whatever your personal timeframe is. Yields stink, but buyers care about safety and not getting caught in an FDIC issue if their bank fails to support the $1 mmkt price - or worse.

Maromatics, Ron Paul has no chance for being elected President, sorry to say.

During the last Republican presidential debate I watched, the candidates were Rommney, McCain, Paul, and Huckabee. It was basically a debate between McCain and Rommney. The media acted like Paul and Huckabee were ghost's that did not exist. Thus my conclusion that he is unelectable just as Ross Perot (whom I voted for) was unelectable.

Wasn't Ross Perot leading the race in 1992 before he mysteriously withdrew ?

If you missed it, on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, Rick Santelli mentioned that traders were vocally cheering Ron Paul's testimony (there is a jumbo tron in one corner of the trading room). This type of sentiment existed over the 10 years that I was there and exists here as well.

Are traders smarter than the average public? No, their lives simply focus on matters different than the general public. It takes a calamity for the public to focus on an issue and that is why Europeans are more knowledgable on money supply. They have personally experienced the ramifications of rapid inflation.

Traders learn their craft through experience and research. The public's lack of knowledge on the workings of the markets is due to the failings of the educational system in the US and HB&B perpetuating the story that the public needs them. The public really needs discourse and proper guidance like this blog.

I'm pretty sure Ross Perot never withdrew in 1992 and didn't win any states in the general election.

There are a huge number of lucky sellers passing their FNM and FRE batons today. If they weren't toxic before they went radioactive today.

Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote -- and no electoral college votes.

Regarding agricultural commodities, I am looking at a chart that is saying that it is closer to the end than the beginning of its run.

I wonder how the mention on the credit card issues in Bernanke's testimony today will effect the Visa IPO.

zenob
We're using ethanol-by product to feed cattle. Still, eff. is an issue. Ethanol is just a small start in solving the big problem. Rich

Perot pulled out in June 1992 and then got back in the race in October. Check wikipedia. He claims that GOP operatives were going to release compromising pictures of his daughter right before her wedding.

Quentusrex - I didn't hear what Bernanke had to say about CC but Visa isn't holding the bag on any cc debt they simply just process the transactions.

Wish list -

I'd like to have a list of US based Cara 100 stocks populated by the amount of revenue derived through business offshore. This list would be sorted by the percentage of revenue that would benefit by the repatriation of dollars back to the US.

So; all else being equal between the companies, the top company would have the highest percentage of internationally based revenue and profits would benefit the most by a falling dollar.

Does that make sense?

I wish I had the time to do the calcualtions.

alan, you want to short Ag cause it's having a bad day? Why fight the trend and try to outhink this thing? Maybe the Ag story is done and maybe it isn't. If it is over there will be plenty of spots for entry why do it here still near all time highs?

follow up on CCJ buy -

If you recall: RSI 7, but not 14 or 21 (were close) fell below 30. Then RSI 7 rose above 30 and on 2/12/08, CCJ broke above downtrend line signalling a buy. Now, among other things, watching the uptrend line for a break for possible sell signal - could be a high teens percentage gainer...waiting.

INTC (Intel) consolidating on daily within a triangle (not textbook), could lead to big move either way - possible straddle in future. waiting.

Hmm, bear trap shaping up? Dip a little then light a rocket under it at 3?

Where was the bull trap? :) I was hungry for beef.

forgot to mention - CCJ may be forming a two bar reversal on daily. You really want the bars to be climactic with wide trading range. Not perfect but it's there. waiting.

Axis analytics was saying that institutional asks were stacked above 1380 area. Looks like the sellers won for the time being. The bullish percent indexes across all indexes are back in rally mode however.

Very difficult market to trade, particularly with the surprise news being sprung at an opportune time lately.

moab: Where are the bids stacked up at ? :)

They say minor swing support is around 1333 and major support at around 1314.

thank you...Moab..dang..did they say whether we will get there today? :)

Eric Bolling live on Fox Business reports he's shorting oil, wheat, commodities due to over bought conditions. Looking for 5 - 10% pull back.

FXP/DUG+SMN/TWM-> taking advantage of the minor strength in shorts and getting out at 82.33/around 37/79.09...taking hits on all...not necessarily recommending anyone else sell, as 'capitulations' on my part have often been associated with bottoms ;)

After the solid short squeeze activity over the last couple days I think we will see a lot of distribution in the last hour(post 3pm ET).

HBB wants to keep the squeeze on as much as possible until the last hour of trading when margin calls kick in and then distribute into the chaos. I am looking for a weak finish for the markets today.

Zenob has the edge here, calling for a bear trap, as that would have to be the move punishes the greatest number of traders right now...

4 days up and the odds of a 5th day up is I think less than 15%....of course it could happen...they punched the shorts today ..and then kicked them and then waterboarded them..

EEM- it got a little rough in the parking lot, but i was able to get into my car and drive off...back thursday or friday with better entries...

no worries...we make up in the gentlemens club I know someone perfect for moments like this...LAS VEGAS..ACTIVE TRADERS CONFERENCE in MAY..be there..bring cash and imagination...and ..er.. a notebook for the conference

vegas- TA conference in the land of T&A...

2nd - you can make a pretty good argument that the bear trap was set over the last couple weeks when we were flirting with S&P 1330 area and it looked like a potential brink of testing the Jan. lows.

Today the market has got shorts down for the count - forcing them to take losses or stomach another night in anticipation of racking further losses right now. I think the thing that will hurt the most now would be to force shorts to cover into strength only to see where the could have covered tomorrow. We shall see.

2nd:si.. I jumped on a plane yesterday..just reading yesterdays posts...this shorting thing...dangerous ...no waterfall cascading paterns ..just pullbacks hard to short..

but then again..next week is a new week...tough to keep going up at that angle of the last 3 days...beware your bearish bias and thoughts of hyperinflation from the previous night effecting your judgement in the morning...

Told you 'they' read the posts here and do the exact opposite..so more people can talk about it and become a self fulfilling prohecy...they may even use the blog as a contrarian gauge...you never know who lurks out there..:)

Bear market rallies tend to be swift and the higher they climb the harder they fall...

I would not be surprised to see this rally get back to a 50% retrace of the fall off...

I think that number is around 1420 on the S&P...

Save some ammo for that day...

Lurkers have no "stones".

BG: You coming to WEGAS? There is a HQQTERS casino out there you can get some wings..

Catching up after a few stops this a.m.

Was out yesterday at a Midwest Community Bank Conference . . . banks from upstate NY to New Mexico and places in between . . kept hearing the word “hope” interspersed with the future . . . for the most part, they’ll survive, better off than the Countrywides of the world . . . interesting to see a number selling for less than book, up to @ 30% below book. . .

Ater listening to different areas of non-performing loans (NPL), 90 days, of which construction and land development is the big leader, asked a bank CEO how many NPLs were in farmland and agriculture? Answer: None, nada, zip!

Not really a bottom fisher, but took some notes and some are in decent shape compared to peers all things considered. . . there will be a day . . . will revisit when more time.

Wow! Is the dollar really at 74.20? Looks like it may be time to sell some covered calls on AEM. Nice move by the gold tell.

sundance- you could be right...i was actually on the right side of both bear and bull traps a few times the past two weeks, but made a wrong turn monday...the thing about wrong turns is to turn back before you're too far down the road->you can make a "U" a few miles in, but once you've driven 50-60 miles at high speed, you're pretty much committed and you're stuck...

g034: Agree..no stones but they may have money. Always like the enemy I know vs the enemy I dont...

EEM...Thinking...

Wondering how I can pass that off as a business metting to the wife...

I just got back from FLA..Was there for the Daytona 500...

If you could come up with a GREAT EXCUSE..I am in...

And I mean GREAT...

BG: You are building a fortune for her based on what you learn and who you meet...heck its only an 1.5 hours fro the Bay Area, be ther efor 1 day...memories for a lifetime

Seamus...

Any luck on Cubs Tix?

Saw you had a few waiting rooms open :^)

S&P500

This rally is 5 weeks old and very overbought short term RSI(3) > 90 and has run up against the 50 DMA. If the market closes up then I will take an initial short position and add on tomorrow highs...

Really liked Bill's recommendation for CSCO; am kicking self for waiting for the Big Drop to pick it off a 20 or so. Breathe, focus, attend.

2nd Ave: IF its any comfort...FXP saw 1.5X its 20 day volume today..could be people loading up...could be people dumping and fleeing..dont know..but I got slapped in the early hours...amazing strength..and dont ask why..it just is..all that energy waiting to break out of that range...

Peter - you could have simply sold CSCO 20 puts.

bg yes I did score. Planned for 5 games and that's what I received. BTW, if my broker provides a couple of rooftops (and the better half doesn't want to go) I was thinking of you.

Reference excuses--say it's a Carista Conference.

Why didn't Bernanke just tell the truth about the falling dollar - allowing the US to payoff it's future maturing bonds with a lower valued dollar? Or how about; if the dollar falls, our manufacturing base (exports) will benefit. Isn't this obvious?

Seamus - I'm in for the Cubs/Sox game ;-)

bg- tell her the truth->playing craps and baccarat will make you a better trader...

g034 great trade on the tix.

You still have your munis? I'm sitting on a boatload, various issues, practically all will expire this year

peter grant, you could have written 20 strike puts. That's what I did. No waiting required. I'm pretty sure I won't see the shares, and the premium gets pocketed. I only wish I could have written more. The downside of a small account.

Yeah 2nd..Imagine cold snowy chicago..verus sunny warm vegas..bathing suits and g strings..smiles and drinks..topless pool on sunday at the mandalay bay...buffalo wings at HQQTERS..wisdom from 2nd...drive around in a limo..shoes polished...massages at night...a little red bull...a few bear hugs...some double tops and bottoms..a little for the bull and bear in all of us.

Just dont tell the women I know you know people that fondle gold bars hidden in sock drawers with the Xfiles playing in the background ok?

Seamus...Sounds Great..I have been a losing Cubs fan my whole life..I scored some tix to a game in AUG That was it...

By the way...When my buddy is working the rooftop we are in my friend...The only problem..It is short notice...I think he finds out a week ahead of time...If you are in let me know..

I have been writing down the Vegas excuses..So far I think the wife will castrate me with any of the above suggestions...

This is funny:

MBIA CEO sees Moody's, S&P done for 12-18 mos
February 27, 2008 3:11 PM ET advertisement

NEW YORK (Reuters) - MBIA Inc Chief Executive Jay Brown on Wednesday said he does not expect rating agencies Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's to take any action on the company's ratings for up to 18 months.

"I think what you heard from Moody's and S&P this week is a very clear picture that they are done for 12 and 18 months with us," he told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Please! Their debt is trading 14 levels below AAA.

On the other hand, it is nice to see someone showing a little common sense. In an article on Fannie Mae:

Ofheo said it won't remove the capital requirements, which demand Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold 30 percent more capital than normal, unless it is satisfied with the companies' finances.

Saw a nice pop in my LMC today after CRAMER left it for dead aroud 8.00...Well thank you cramer played the Cramer contrarian and DOUBLED DOWN ON LMC after he said sell sell sell..

Nice 10% pop today took off 1/2 Insiders buying and earnings tomorrow...

Lets see what happens

EEM - what Vegas conference? Website?

EEM- i'm only going to tell the women we hardly know about fondling gold bars in sock drawers, and they won't be thinking we're weird at all, man...

similarly, I wrote a pantload of RIO June 25 puts when RIO was about 30 or so.

My reasons were that this is a huge company selling _things_. Each dollar drop is millions and millions of market cap. That's just not going away easily for a company like RIO. So that 5 dollar gap between strike and price is actually larger than it looks. Also, at 1.40 premium, I'll take RIO at 25 with a cost basis of 23.60, should the shares get put to me.

This trade has worked out very well in a very short period of time.

writersblock..I think its called active traders conference or call your broker...I have to look it up..its an annual event..google vegas investors conference

Thanks

writers block..sorry was clearing my trades..here it is

http://www.moneyshow.com/msc/lvms/main.asp

BG Sometimes I'm out of town, otherwise I can definitely be there. Just let me know. Thank you!

2nd Ave: Seamus, BG : Serious...the money show is good...good seminars...gold bug speakers, technical speakers..Eden sisters..people from all over the world..all want to strike it rich day trading for 1% a day...in vegas...its perfect..fantasy + Illusion = Good Time for all

EEM, don't tell the chicks my dirty secrets.

But to tell you the truth, I think once they hear the "gold bars" part, they kinda overlook the "fondling" and "sock drawer" part. Or maybe I need to get away from these gold-digging NYC women.

And no, no X-Files in the background. Mythbusters, yeah, sure. X-Files? What do think I am? A geek?

MikeNYC: LOL..sorry couldnt help thinking that whe I read your post the other day..the women..they hear bars..they happy..chocolate or otherwise...anything solid ..character counts too...they are looking for a better life..away from subprime mortgages and underwater home values...

Really nice women..they just are not exposed to life outside of vegas..becomes a bit of a bubble for them..work..eat..sleep..dying to meet men they would like to know more...:)

MikeNYC...2nd_Ave..EEM..Seamus..

I have this picture in my head..All of us in Vegas..Gambling, Drinking, Having fun...

I see no work getting done...NONE NADA ZIP...

Between the pools we have to visit, shows at the Can-Can, The Cheetah Club, Minxx and the like plus gambling..How would we have time to make it to some $$$ SHOW...

Seamus - yes, I still have most of the munis, all short term. Their prices haven't moved much, so I have kept them. My gut tells me that they are riskier than the price is forecasting, but the market thinks I'm wrong to worry. We'll see.

BG: We spend $19.99 for those cheesy videos that the speakers sell..play it on the plane home and then you can have fresh knowledge to share with your wife.

Cheetahs and Can Cans..Dang son..how old are you ? Where have you been? Listening to rock n roll and bad mouthing your country?

Palms and OG and the Horse and SG..playboy casino..

The $$$ show is when we wake up at lunch.. they schedule the best speakers in the evenings...right before happy hour...and its in the middle of the month ..get good service in vegas..they start thinking of meeting rent money and aims to pleaze...

I'm planning on being at the Las Vegas money show in May. This would make my third LV show. TG it's at Mandalay Bay and not Paris anymore.

Then on to Orange Co., CA for a family visit. Don't get out to CA enough.

Perhaps there could be a "Cara clan" in LV.

Craig or anyone who might know: what's driving IWA today. Bought this last week when you mentioned this as a dividend play but was pleasantly surprised that it is rallying and it's up almost 7% today.

EEM..

Not old..Only 36...Just don't get out much...

Was in Vegas about 5 years ago with a Cop friend of mine from Chicago...The great thing..All the Chicago Cops retire out in Vegas and work security at all the hot clubs..So it was NO WAITING and NO COVER at all the hot spots..

I am sure it would be the same way with you EEM...I know they know your name at the door and have a table waiting...I am jealous...

BG: Yes that makes sense...a lot of them have a better life out there...well used to be..those forclosures are wild...

When I livd there..I didnt think food or entertainment was decently priced at all..worse than the bay area..only housing was more decent..just like a casino..they get you on common sense..and make the market up on the human vices..

Did your cop friends ever go to the sunday pool parties at the casino for 'people in the industry'...? That opened more than my eyes...

Gotta runs guys...

My son called and wants to build a fort before all the snow melts...Priorities...

Always great to talk to all of you...

My Mother in law lives in Vegas and the wife's best friend since earliest childhood is married to one of the musicians in Elton John's band....missed the last trip, but could have seen the Red Piano show from the mixing board, best seat in the house. Unfortunately they don't just give those Red Piano seats away, but have been to many concerts in Seattle. Last time my wife, daughter and her friend rode in the tour bus to the show from Elton's hotel. 6 degrees of seperation in action.
Vegas would be a good trip, wife see's Mom, I go to the "investors" ahem...show.

The money show sounds like a lot of fun. I wish I had the time/budget for something like that right now. Its been a couple years since my last Vegas bash but I was there in May '06 and stayed at Mandalay Bay and had a great time. It was around May 15th and the weather was perfect for chilling poolside. Mandalay has the best outdoor pool in Vegas.

IWA: No news except announcing participating in the Raymond James insitutional investor show in Orlando. Nice capital gain to go with a nice Div....:>)

Bovespa closes up 0.48% to 65,494. All-time record is 65,790. Nose bleed territory.

Craig: You have the perfect situation...now convince 2@nd Ave and BG....creates a focus around day trading..make the change and more for the trip...no playing around...

2 months=$20K something like that..a stretch goal..really rip the trades out...no social trading..trade for what really patters...consistent profits...

WOW. Just watched Robert Prechter from Elliot Wave International on Bloomberg.
In gold (real money) we have been in a bear market since 1999.
His charts and presentation make Kaimu look absolutely optimistic....confirms all our favorite Hawaiian has been telling us for some time now. Very impressive.
Those with the ability to see it online should do so. He says priced in gold the DJIA is really in the 3000 area and that sooner or later the indices will reflect that reality.

You should see his chart on the bond insurers.
What a cruel joke.

Move over Kaimu and MikeNYC, I'm putting most of my fake cash into real money.

Speaking of trips, who will be at PDAC in Toronto with Bill and Jock among others? g034? Si02? That conference is a fount of information.

Won't be able to make it as I'm traveling to Massachusetts Saturday and have some business in the North End of Boston on Monday, Tuesday.

Who knows? Maybe I'll bump into vinod in the financial district!

Craig,
The DOW priced in Euros is a real eye opener (I keep the chart of that over my desk.)

Priced in gold, it's a tear jerker.

Craig, I get your point on the Dow:Gold.

Sidenote: Prechter has been a gold bear forever. That tells me a lot. He has blinders on and thinks that he is right and the market is wrong. That's not professional.

LOL...i'm going to be flying home from hawaii may 11, so the week of may 12 is not going to work...if it's more a meeting of caraistas, we can really do that anytime, and i think vegas is the perfect location...at some point it should work out for me...

nice surprise after work->turns out my wife faded the open and went long...so we pretty much ended up flat for the day...an important psychological distinction going into thursday's open...

Seamus

Will be glad to treat you for lunch at legal seafood near downtown
Let me know and I will give you my cell no

The ABX indices have continued their nose-dive today. This can't be good for XLF. Neither the high PPI number and the collapsing home prices and sales. I have increased my position in SRS and my short on XLF today, and opened a short on XHB.

David V.

Vinod,

Thanks for the generous offer. That would be great, but you don't have to buy.

I will meet you at the Legal Seafood near the Acquarium. Is 1:00 p.m. a convenient time for you?

I would not recommend you post your telephone number here. Do not list it on the blog.

I can meet you at the aforementioned time on Monday, March 3, 2008. If for unforeseen reason, I am delayed I will telephone the restaurant host/hostess and have you paged. I'll find you.

Vinod

Typo correction: Aquarium

Seamus

o.k

2nd : Glad to hear things turned out well..talk about pairs trading!!

Ron Paul has courage. It's such a shame that the American public cannot see the opportunity they have in him.

"One of the reasons that most economists of the 1920s did not recognize the existence of an inflationary problem was the widespread adoption of a stable price level as the goal and criterion for monetary policy."

-introductory sentence to ch. 6 of Murray Rothbard's 'America's Great Depression'.

aye yay yay.

For the Khan Res. (Kri) watchers...fyi

News release today for conf. call this Fri. 9:30am.

JMO - will be bringing some type of good news to the table. Lots of insider buying this month.

I'm speculating and increased position today @ 1.54.

I'm thinking of taking my profit in NOSOF. I'm up alot but nothing like WGW yet. Since I'm unable to see the price during the day and it doesn't track silver I'm somewhat flying blind it feels. Has anybody else trimmed or cashed out of it yet?

telenetworxx - You can follow NOT.V intraday via yahoo or reuters or another source.

Still long NOT.V; no plan to sell anytime soon (not advice).

I missed the last half hour of trading today and came back to find that Noront (NOT.V), Fancamp (FNC.V) and McDonald Mines (BMK.V) all popped very big right at the end on significant volume. There was no news today and trading was mainly sideways up until then. The open should be very interesting. Currently long BMK.V.

What's good for NOT.V should be good for PNP.TO as well. PNP did not have an end-of-day pop; perhaps will play catch-up tomorrow? Long NOT.V, PNP.TO.

I'm seeing significant bearish divergences on the major indexes. Let's see if the market gets yet another bogus boost to stave off the inevitable crash.

The market can trade on "technicals" for only so long, after all, before those selfsame technicals realign themselves with fundamentals.

what if we go up from here? what if we've seen the lows for the year, and it's time to set sights on japan->20,000, china->7000...s&p->1600, djia->15,000...we've benn climbing on bad news for a few weeks now, and the negativity is keeping a floor on the market...djia did hit 11,500 at one point, not quite 10,000 but a 20% drop from the high...financials/homebuilders have already been decimated->who's to say there needs to be more? let's say obama gets elected, cooler heads prevail, the war winds down and money gets redirected, little by little, into the right programs....personal tragedies have been averted via small decisions and attitude changes, right->things have a way of working themselves out under the right leadership...optimism gradually replaces pessimism, the glass looks half full again, and it turns out the american people have the 'right stuff' after all...it's really not that far-fetched...if the market looks ahead 6-9 months, maybe it's starting to price all this in...after all, what's the alternative?

...keeping a floor 'under' the market...

thanks OG. i always like to hear what others are doing with stocks i own. agora is good for news but
boy do they love them some Noront in the forum. not sure it's fair and balanced.

2nd Ave BROHTER: You gotta have your own 'method' of gauging 'reality'. Otherwise...the armageddon types or the DOW 50,000 by DEc1,2008 types will toss you around like Tom Hanks on a raft with no volleyball.

AND based on the latest midnight post that you read..it will shape your mindset and you trade what is the freshes maybe the next morning?

IF the STOCKMARKET is your customer, thats how you get paid..for assessing reward/risk...would you argue with your customer in a real business? Would you spend tons of time disputing your customer, and have a healthy business? would you lay awake all night wondering about the CEOof your customer whether he is moral or immoral, or he kicks his dog, if he is a customer that paid on time and you made fat margins on it?

Pick the fights...tough to trade this market on fundamentals, and eventually everyone gets what they want..those that predict recessions and bottoms...but has our equity curve grown?

If you just traded FXI..and stuck to it..the last 3 days..going long would have made you..about $1200 just buying 200 shares...FOCUS..tune out the naysayers and the news...hell..never heard of CDO and SIVs..but shorting the XLF..still makes money...

:)

I don't want it to sound like I'm looking forward to the carnage that is fast approaching, but I'm preparing my mp3 play list for next week. So far I've got Wagner's Ride of the Valkries, Trans-Siberian Orchestra's Beethoven's 5th, Rolling Stones Sympathy for the Devil, Sarah Brightman Who Wants to Live Forever, Beethoven Moonlight Sonata, and I'm thinking of tossing in the Imperial March from Star Wars. ;-)

Bill,

Video of today's exchange between Ron Paul and Ben Bernanke has been posted onto his campaign web site: http://tinyurl.com/yu3ves

Alright Wilson...I mean 2nd, are you drinking again? :>) Too much salt water? Too many Hillary speeches? Oh wait...it was Starbucks closing last night, isn't it???

You want longs? Stick with miners, precious metals, basic materials, steel, deep water oil drillers, dry shippers, food producers, agricultural commodities. and SBUX. Go ahead, defy reality. We all do.

I have a couple picks but I hear it's not fashionable to list them when HB&B are reading. I'll list them in the morning and will give you plenty of time. After my coffee.

BTW, SDS/QID support still holding. I buy it down there and sell it up over there, a couple times a day. I am America and so can you! Oh wait, that is plagerism....

They're just tightening the range while they prepare to lull you to sleep (no coffee?) and then they send Grizzly Adams to take your volleyball friend.

Who cares where the market goes? You're in the Bay area, just walk across the street to Pete's.

So, what do the Fund managers use for window dressing at month end when the leaders have been smashed? Gold, commodities?

Reviewed the technicals and the Dollar idx looks headed for high 60's after breaking out the bottom of a triangle.

Trend indicators point to some more upside in the Dow and S&P. Retrace targets: 0.618 and 20 week EMA = 12,960; 0.786 = 13,321. If it fails at the 50wma, done.

NAS is in a triangle that needs 1820 to break north.

HUI has broken a triangle and is 3,iii,5,(3). "3 of 3 up" target over 500. IMHO it will rise "sky's the limit" as the Dollar is destroyed, until the hedgies have margin calls and sell the miners and gold heavily to save their smoldering carcasses.

As usual, doing research until exhaustion.

Found this quite interesting:

"The next bubble must be large enough to recover the losses from the housing bubble collapse."...

http://tinyurl.com/2w85dv

Pink sheets vs direct Canadian exchange

Let's say I only have access to US pink sheets for stocks on the Canadian exchange. If I use the Canadian stock ask and convert that to USD, should I expect the pink sheet buy order to fill?

go34: I like the straddle idea you mentioned on INTC - I've been watching this one closely - any particular signal you would consider to take the trade? how far out to expiration were you considering? This coil is getting extremely wound up tightly and looks ready to pop.

ALOHA !!

Has anybody here ever heard of the AMERICAN DREAM DOWN PAYMENT INITIATIVE?

This is a line item in the Bush FY2009 Budget under the HUD(Housing and Urban Development)Department. They plan to increase that line item by 100% to $50million USD by next year.

So we have a housing crisis where foreclosures are rising at record levels and the US government wants to help fund down payments! Is it not common sense that if you cannot afford a down payment then you have no business buying a house? Or do I live in Fantasy Land?

The AMERICAN DREAM is nothing more than a con game to make the Middle Class debt slaves to banks for eternity!

Looking for equities to move lower today.

Crude and Gold to rally and the Dollar to go down.

Quote from our interview yesterday in Marketwatch http://tinyurl.com/2pffex

"We are in a new phase in the dollar/euro relationship, as demand for euros powered the market through the psychological $1.50 ceiling. Our model shows that the market can now realistically look at the $1.55 zone as the next major target area for the dollar,"

Not much press on this for some reason...its only the USS America striking an iceberg....

Written Testimony for the House of Representatives’ Financial Services Committee Hearing on February 26th, 2008

"The only hard estimate that I have found so far is one by Calculated Risk. The way he puts it: “Assuming a 15% total price decline, and a 50% average loss per mortgage, the losses for lenders and investors would be about $1 trillion. Assuming a 30% price decline, the losses would be over $2 trillion. Not every upside down homeowner will use jingle mail, but if prices drop 30%, the losses for the lenders and investors might well be over $1 trillion (far in excess of the $70 to $80 billion in losses reported so far).”

http://tinyurl.com/yrp756

If you are long SEED, my sympathies. That stock is down over 33% in premarket. WoW...Anyone have puts on this?

2nd: GFI @14.06
MT@ 79.08
WFT@ 69.70

Gotta go get coffee....

2nd: MT not one of my better buys. Following my roolz...very small start....now 78.68/78.81.

SDS: Selling 1/4 position at 61.22

GFI - Today's range (thus far) on JSE in South Africa (approx after currency translation): 13.77-14.30

Here is what Bernane said today:

"I do expect inflation to come down," he added. "If it doesn't, we will have to react to it."

What kind of a statement is that? Looks like he is just making a gamble by lowering interest rates. I thought he actually KNOWS that inflation will come down, but apparently he doesn't. This is not a good climate for the interest rate sensitive financials...

David V