Re ETNs, I posted a couple weeks back that I thought these much more risky than ETFs since ETFs are backed by something tangible and ETNs are backed only by the good faith of its underwriter. Barclays is a big seller of these if I remember. I think this is just an invitation to be fleeced by your banker. But I could be wrong. I bet the market would nose dive at 3pm on Fri ..

Here's an alternative site for the G. C. Selden book, Psychology of the Stock Market (the subtitle is: Human impulses lead to speculative disasters," http://books.google.com/books?id=5d5HAAAAIAAJ&hl=en

Logo---It currently shows up at the bottom of the right hand column. Why not consider putting it first or in the header?

Three things. Our economy is driven by the price of oil. It’s an election year. Politicians need things to be very rosy by mid year.

You can say all you want about Palladium, Platinum, gold etc. but the truth is that oil prices (or the perception of higher/lower prices) is what drives the economy.

We need oil to get back to the $60 level.

The administration knows this.
Politicians know this.
HB&B knows this.

So… plans are being made to make this happen.

This is a scenario that could unfold over the next few months.

An announcement will be made that the strategic petroleum reserve will be tapped to “moderate” domestic supply demand imbalances.

Then, the politicians will change their posture on opening ANWR for exploration/production. ANWR will become the new strategic reserve.

Just the perception of lower oil will drive the market higher. Lower oil means a strong economy. Once again, the economy will follow the market higher.

Odds of this happening? Not high, but if it does happen we will see new highs almost immediately. The biggest bear trap in history!

Any thoughts?

Logo... lookin' good.

Aren't ETNs just another marketing term for a closed fund? Are there any liquidity risks?

"The difference in an ETN and an ETF is the structure. ETNs are issued as a senior bank note and ETFs represent a stake in an underlying commodity. The bigger difference comes down to tax treatment and credit risk. Investors should treat ETNs as prepaid contracts and any difference between the sale and purchase is classified as capital gains. ETNs possess credit risk ,however, they do not have a tracking risk, unlike ETFs where there is possibility the returns will differ from the underlying index."

Anyone see any patterns between BCE & CNR?

http://tinyurl.com/2mumn4

Lower lows for BCE & higher highs for CNR maybe? Or am I seeing backwards?

Bill Harris had an important comment on mine financing and perhaps a reason why junior mining stocks are chronically underperforming:

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?vid=30755

These comments had some mention last week, but I presume many of the smaller companies not requiring hundreds of millions or billions of capital investment & years of construction effort will be favoured, as they can rely on capital entities willing to provide enough capital for production startup.

That being said, there was a story in the Globe and Mail about rumours that Sprott Asset Mangement will be having an IPO. Sprott will be another player on the scene who provide investment capital to the junior mining sector.

Globe

http://tinyurl.com/ys7rx8

No use trying to explain the moves in Platinum, except that it overran its seasonal dip, so there is a possibility that both silver and gold will do the saem.

Platinum

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/2288495482/

Silver

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/2287705929/

Gold

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/2288495202/

We are now very close to seeing a moving average crossover in the Silver/Gold chart. Once the 13-week EMA crosses over the 34-week EMA and the 89-week EMA, this will probably be a green light for junior PM shares. A sign that speculative money is coming back into the precious metals sector. Platinum has already lead the charge. Silver should advance against gold for a time, as gold is going into a seasonal correction period. We haven't seen a modest correction in the gold just yet. Mind you, this chart is the inverse of a derivative chart, the gold/silver ratio which can turn on a dime, but all of the technical indicators are favouring an advance of Silver against gold.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/2287705447/sizes/o/

Precious metal juniors continue to underperform the Canadian dollar gold price, which went to ~$970 this week.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/2287705653/sizes/o/

What Sprott Bought

On February 8, an alternative monthly report under part 4 of national instrument 62-103 was posted on SEDAR.com about Sprott Asset Management topping up on shares in GBN.V. So I wondered just which other companies Sprott was buying under the same filing. There is a short list of companies which Sprott has been buying into in the junior precious metals in the last six months. Most of them were on February 8, the same day as GBN.V, but others were added previously.

African Gold Group AGG.V
Boxxer Gold Corp. BXX.V
Dynasty Metals And Minerals DMM.TO
Golden Band Resources GBN.V
J-Pacific Gold JPN.V
Pelangio Mines PLG.TO
Reunion Gold RGD.V
Stroud Resources SDR.V

F6

My junior watchlist has been amended to include the preceding stocks:

AGG.V ANI.V ARU.TO BVG.V BPM.V BXX.V CBR.V CAN.V DMM.TO GBS.TO GCX.TO ICI.TO ITH.V JPN.V KXL.V MJS.V MMM.TO NGG.V PLG.TO R.V RGD.V SDR.V SLI.V TLG.V WGW

In my brief research on ETN's I was also turned off by the fact they are backed only by the financial institution backing them.

According to Bloomberg, the financial crisis is solved. Everyone get out their rally hats:

http://tinyurl.com/yr4bdf

Here's one of my favorite quotes:

"We're making our way toward a rescue plan for Ambac," said Salah Seddik, who helps oversee $5.9 billion at Richelieu Finance in Paris. "This is reassuring and good news for financial stocks. It means that in terms of writedowns, the worst is behind us."

Indeed and truly amazing. So the markets are going to open sharply higher. Even though no plan has been announced and no one has demonstrated how an investment of $2B in one monoline is going to save the entire sector.

But never mind that for now.

Instead watch the premiums on XLF calls skyrocket at the open.

Wabrew: I don't believe that the price of oil drives our economy. The availability of credit drives the economy--it is the lubricant that keeps the economic machine running. When liquidity get pinched, then there is less liquidity and the gears start to grind.

Having said that, the price of oil and in turn its effect on prices that consumers pay influences consumer liquidity. The more that consumers have to pay on gas, food, heating/cooling costs, the less discretionary income they have to pay for stuff. Also, oil price affects cost of mfg. inputs.

But to say that the economy depends on the price of oil overstates the case.

Good morning from a sunny Cape Town

Investors had to stomach another roller-coaster ride last week as mounting concerns about a recessionary US economy and the implications for global growth and corporate earnings continued to weigh on sentiment.

Read all about this in a bumper edition of my regular weekly blog post, highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

Here is the link to the "Words from the Wise": http://tinyurl.com/25gau8

Happy trading.

Bill
I thought you'd be interested on the relationship
of PPI/CPI and inflation.(I commented on the week end but I am not sure it appeared in the right place)
Basically we should expect a P/E contraction of 2/3 from the bubble peak in the year 2000.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes, all involving (DNA):

Upgraded to Market Outperform @ Rodman & Renshaw

Target Price Raised:

$82 to $91 @ Caris & Co.
$67 to $78 @ Jefferies & Co.
$67 to $76 @ Friedman Billings

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and watch out for card cheats at the close. :^)

See an overnight interview on Bloomberg with the ? Parker, a vice chairman of Credit Suisse. Another one going on record to say the "rescue" of Ambac will turn sector around. He also claims the banks, in particular, have already reported the worst of their losses.

An incredible exchange occurs moments later:

Parker: "The key question, however, is are there bad positions elsewhere, whether it be the pension fund industry, insurance, the mutual funds, other investors. I'm sure there are other 'stale' positions, but I don't think it's going to have the impact that the bad debts have had in the banking system."

Interviewer: "A million *small* writeoffs as opposed ..."

Parker: "Yes, small pockets everywhere."

Interviewer: "Um, which, uh, points to the fact that the banks managed to offload a lot of their subprime debt and sell it .. uh, sell it in various forms."

Yes, indeed. Small pockets. Classic.

craig- are you taking SKF off pre-market...we're taking off what little QID we have off...leaves us holding basically just HGD + cash...

looking to re-enter DUG/SMN if the opportunities arise...

btw- re my 'dater beware' comment yesterday->always enjoy your ripostes, but i was referring (more) to men, as we are generally clueless reading people when compared to women LOL...

The AMBAC bailout plan seems to be all smoke and mirrors. And the muni bonds don't sound that healthy either:
http://tinyurl.com/2t9w6p

I should wait till 30 minutes to the close then post that link into the yahoo finance forums and see what the lemmings do.

Leisa - insightful comments. I agree. Credit is the lubricant for the economy. However, a sharp drop in oil prices will probably be accompanied by a rally in the dollar, which should have a positive effect on liquidity. Part of the reason for our liquidity crunch is the unwillingness of sovereigns to hold dollar denominated assets for fear of negative returns after currency exchange losses.

Here's a funny one that my google news searches picked up. This guy is trying to make the case that the dollar hasn't really fallen in value while at the same time trying to make the case that a lower dollar is a good thing. He has zero understanding of inflation. I wonder if he get's paid to right this nonsense.

http://tinyurl.com/253mdq

Zenob- you (inadvertently) made an astute comment-> wouldn't pay someone to write nonsense, but we would pay someone to 'right' nonsense..;)

Lol

It sounds better that way but the spelling was in error. I'm the result of too many years of having access to spell checking software. :-)

SNDK- taking a minor position ahead of the analysts' meeting...

2nd: Yes, took off SKF with a tidy little profit.
Basically selling into any strength.

My bias...I have a daughter. I'm the eldest of three brothers so we were taught the other side...be responsible.

wabrew, it kind of begs the question of why there would be a drop in oil prices? I can see fluctuations, yeh, but wouldn't there have to be a pretty sustained drop to get some traction in the thinking of the beleaguered masses? I haven't seen a good case made for much lower prices based on supply/demand as it stands.

Bill, Love the new logo, and love that it shows up in the URL address bar now. However, I'm seeing it in grey tones today, whereas yesterday, it was in color. Is that a browser error on my end, or did I miss the decision to use it in black and white?

Denny - see my earlier speculative post - top of this page.

gold just took a mini-plunge,
USD index down a bit too....

Dr. Cosa: Bloomberg reports US backs IMF gold sale. I bought a little more on the weakness.

GFI: Took small loss on longer term power problems.

HGD spiking up to 9.74CDN (9.62USD)...

wabrew, well I guess if people buy that tapping the petroleum reserve or declaring ANWR a strategic reserve is the magic road to lower prices, then I guess it could happen, since anything can happen in the short term. I hope that doesn't lull people into a false security about the energy situation, though.

Ok this is annoying. I had a stink bid in on SKF that filled at 109.72. I log in today to check and see if I want to sell it before the AMBAC news hits and drives it down and I see my little 50 shares sitting there with a purchase price of *127.54*!! WTF?

I called Fidelity and found out that their software for whatever reason does some bizarre tax loss calculation on your previous trades for the year and tacks that on to the position(basically it adds your total loss to it to "warn you" I guess in case you want to not make any more trades to keep from having a wash sale.

Freaked me the hell out when I saw that. Not to mention I think it's adding it up wrong. I took a haircut of about 250 in that headfake Friday and took another small haircut before the first during another sudden move. Both of those together would be about right as far as the difference in price is concerned, but one of those losses was for the last tax year and wouldn't apply this time.

It's too early for this shit.

thx craig but i cant find the headline on bloomberg.

IMF gold sales were mentioned a few weeks back,
i wonder if this will have a medium term effect on gold bringing us back below $900 or just a short quick drop that see's folks on the sidelines jump back in.

Oil: Did you guys read the WIR on oil co's replacing reserves? Do you really think the SOR would make any difference? It's a drop in an ocean.

And in an election year ANWR drilling is opposed by all candidates. I see that as a zero possibility.

I would be looking at those co's replacing reserves...and those would be in Canada, China.

Took SKF off at 112.50. I'll take the 3% gain while I wait for the market to overreact to the AMBAC bailout. Hopefully they'll hand me a better entry.

Bloomberg TV headline.

SNDK- catching a bid..

Re Log vs Linear chart discussion

The link I posted a couple of days ago seems to work OK for FireFox but in IE does not bring up the charts, I've resent the image codes and it seems to work now, for those interested.

I like linear for short term and log for the longer multi year charts in the weekly or monthly time frames.

http://tinyurl.com/ynq498

JMHO

Re. Fidelity Active Trader Pro: Looking for a basic handbook and/or users guide. Nothing listed at Amazon. Anyone know of a privately published work? Thanks!

Presume you've looked and the online ATP User's Guide under "Help" and found it unsuitable to your purposes....

PNP.TO - up another 4.16% thus far today. Quite a run over past several days.

Craig, yes, the WIR had an excellent part about energy. I'll bet there are very few people aware of the facts as they relate to the replacement of reserves by oil co's. If you factor in declines in production among most of the producing countries, Houston, we have a problem.

Maybe we need to be looking at wind/solar co's as well?

Dr. cosa...more on IMF sales on Bloomberg.
Analyst (Leonard Kaplan) cites SA production cuts pointing to ever higher prices in spite of IMF sales.

liking the action in SNDK->adding a long(er)-term position as well...

SNDK just rallying up to understand resistance of wedge. Nothing to get excited about until it breaks through it...for trend traders I suppose.

If you do want to check out a group of stocks who's charts seem intriguing check out the refiners. Support has held and most are now breaking out. HOC, HP, HES, TSO. I like low risk propositions where my risk is defined.

SKF has a tiny bit of support at 104-105. If it falls through that it doesn't have support again until about 95.

I'm learning. This time I swear I'll get a better entry. lol

Re: IMF Gold Sales

http://tinyurl.com/2qr6gq

The IMF doesn't have any silver.

HGD- out for now at 9.70USD...

Jim Sinclair believes any gold sales by the IMF will result in gold moving quickly above $1000 and towards $1650.

any thoughts on this?

OldGoat,
Even printed out 7.1 Users Guide. No trouble trading stocks, although limited to stocks I list in the Market Monitor Layout (and I know this isn’t the right way to go about it, but it works). It’s buying/writing options I can’t fathom. Nearest Fidelity office a couple of hours away, but guess that’s my best bet. Thanks for your feedback.

re Juniors, wondering what the collective opinion of TRE is?

When AP says something like, "Wall Street Moves Higher As Investors Hope Housing Slump Might Be Nearing Bottom," what strike me is the words "hope" "might be," and nearing. Sometimes it seems like they just make this stuff up out of thin air. And then when I read on and see that everything is hanging on Ambac, gosh, I just don't feel confident at all, not even hopeful.

ZENOB: The real news about the bail out isnt out yet..when it does come out, as oppose to Gasparinos rumors, that might be a better time and entry point for SKF you think?

Lots of room to go down for all the indices and sectors....let it come to you....just salivate for now.:)

RE Energy

Been long this sector for many years. Yes Houston we have a problem, reserves not being replaced. All the big oil / gas fields close to the surface, close to the pipeline and close to the customer have already been found and sucked dry. Current demand is being met by sticking more straws into the same pool to maintain the output, however this accelerates the reserve life decline.

Oil will get more expensive with major spikes due to world politics. Nat gas is more concerning to me as it has to be domestic, demand increasing, supply not, LNG in short term will not have much impact. We've seen electricity brown outs in the past, I think we will see rotating "Heat Outs" in the not to distant future. However these will also be a logistical problem, as if you loose gas the local utility can't just re-pressurize the lines and you're back in business, (like with electricity). There is a safety problem in the uncontrolled relighting of gas equipment.

Yes I would luv to have a few separate forums on Bill's new site to discuss, energy, alt energy, food, water etc, in detail.

Another area I think has promise is uranium, right now I don't see any producers on my list which interest me at this point, still watching for entry. However Usec "USU" enrichment processing popped up on my screen, been beaten down over their centrifuge project but starting to look very interesting. Divergences on the weekly and daily, MA compression and crossovers. see chart link

http://tinyurl.com/2v9hsg

GFI - Intraday double bottom at 14 forming?

EEMTRADER,

That's my thinking. I MIGHT put in some small limit orders at support levels, but I won't actively buy until some news breaks. No telling how far it could run.

Stopped out of SSO @ 70.65, might've been too tight of a trailing stop, but I wanted to lock in profits as I climb my way back up.

Everything on hold for now...

Zenob: big plunge in mar...first week..according to my astrologer with a plunging neckline...I am getting all worked up for that...

GFI - Summary of today's teleconference re electricity problems and resultant proposed shaft closures and layoffs.

http://africa.reuters.com/instrument/gan.php?i=36122539

edging back into DUG/SMN...anyone else get the sense that the next drop may (relatively speaking) 'spare' technology while battering commodities?

Fatty - You (and I and I'm sure a great many others) could take a lesson from William Eckhardt. This quote, for example, seems apropos of our recent experiences:

"One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: you can't go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance."

Jesse Livermore said much the same thing.

Charles Kirk has recently posted a selection of Eckhardt quotes cited by Teresa Lo in her book "Profit from The Winner's Curse".

http://www.thekirkreport.com/2008/02/trading-wisdom.html

Looks like the mid day lull is starting. Think I'll go sneak in a run while I wait. Haven't managed to get out and run in two weeks. First had an ice storm, then got the flu, then had MORE snow. Apparently mother nature wants me to get fat again.

GFI: I'll let it come to me again at 13.10

MSFT: got out this AM, reloading small position 27.66

GFI - No double bottom at 14.01; lower low at 13.96.

neither side getting much traction today...

CMP unknown stock breaking out/ agri-chemical stock. MOS, POT and sector doing well.

Both QID and QLD with distorted intra-day prices.
$NDX is up about 3 points, so QID should be down about .09 (actually up .27) and QLD should be up about .09 (actually down .43). You will probably see those adjustments kick in just before the close.

A little help here...2 columns? sidebar? new logo?
I'm using firefox and don't seem to have any of these options.
Also, watching copper and other industrial metals, seem to be doing a triple top or new breakout, doesn't this indicate the rest of the world, (china) is not having the slowdown that we are. The comments on congress having bankrupted the country seem to me to be the most pertinent long term news to me. We're getting poorer. When we get down to making plastic toys for a dollar an hour, then we'll be competitive again? Bowl of rice anyone?

Sidebar is on billcara.com home page.

Currency speculation/hedging with the new ML ETNs

"On February 21, ELEMENTS rolled out five new currency ETNs that offer exposure to foreign currencies and their home-market interest rates. The new funds are:

ELEMENTS Euro (ERE)
ELEMENTS Australian Dollar (ADE)
ELEMENTS British Pound (EGB)
ELEMENTS Canadian Dollar (CUD)
ELEMENTS Swiss Franc (SZE)
Each note is linked to the performance of the named foreign currency against the U.S. dollar. If the euro rises against the dollar, for instance, the ELEMENTS Euro ETN (ERE) will rise as well. "
http://tinyurl.com/yo4yds

crystallex gold stock in venezuela---has any one been keeping tabs as to the possible permit date? alsoprices of stock reallllllly low --not too much faith as to what chavez will do. russty

Russty1,

I gave up on Crystallex at the end of December and just sold it and took the capital loss for taxes. They might have a hole with a lot of gold in it, but if they don't let them dig it out it's worthless.

Are there still people that believe in the tooth fairy and KRY? Get real.

Look elsewhere, there are 100's of other miners.

Noront halted at 13:09 hrs.

BMK up %25 thus far today.

Those long NOT...good luck on the news...

GFI - Depending on how you look at it, there may be a triple bottom forming....but then, we know there's no such a thing....

Rusty:

KRY management has no money in their own stock. Why should you?

NOT.V/PNP.TO - If news is good for Noront, it should be good for Pinetree also.

NOT/V/PNP.TO - If news is good for Noront, it should be good for Pinetree also.

Just thought I would mention that the CRB is now trading over 400. Grain's are booming today. Everyday living is getting more and more expensive. As consumers spend more to live, they will have less for consumer products, bigger houses, cars and other things.

Bill:

Oh no! You signed off with "ciao!" The last person to "ciao" me was Elaine Garzarelli, and I lost my shirt (or at least some buttons) following her newsletter. Somewhere in your back pages I've told the story. Nonetheless, anyone can be wrong, and I was too gullible. It's was just the cockiness that rankled, that's all.

Still, I'm confident of better things with you. I've not chimed in for a long while, so it seems a good time to join others in giving you thanks. I'm weathering the storm reasonably well, largely due to careful consideration of your viewpoints. I hate to think where I might be on my own. Thanks.

BTW, you have often pointed to Eliot Spitzer as one who might bring order to chaos, were he to be given that opportunity. Alas, in NY as governor, he has become quite (and I think unjustly) unpopular. This, after euphoria at his election just over one year ago today. He's made some extremely blunt remarks. Trouble is, the opposing politicians can't be tossed in jail as the crooked businesspeople can, and they fight back.

But it could still turnaround. The ball game ain't over until the fat lady....or....well, you know what I mean.

PNP.TO - 4.70 + 8.55%

Thank you OG...NOT halted, just go to PNP.TO

LOL! Just told my wife about OG's PNP link to NOT.
She says "More minds better than one?" And I misheard and said, "Yes, many mines better than one."

Spitzer is unpopular because he declared war on his political adversaries and they returned the favor. In my mind, Spitzer was just trying to get something done.

craig- great mines yield alike...or is it great mines like a yield ;_}

Old Goat: Thanks for the quote reminder. It was enough of a kick in the pants to review my PnL. I update my equity curve daily but never went back and got a cumulative success rate, or avg. wins / losses.

I've arrived at 59.8/40.2 W/L. My avg. win is about 60% of my avg. loss: therein lies the rub, and I fit the bill for the quote perfectly, unfortunately.

Since I think I have more control over loss minimization than gain maximization, I'm much more comfortable focusing on the former in the near term...

I like the idea of "be right & sit tight" but I sat tight for a year and got burned. So I'd rather get up and dance!!

To clarify:
Win rate is 59.8%
Avg. Win amount is 60% of the Avg. Loss amount.

I'm hoping both apply 2nd..:>)

14:25 S&P AAA FINANICAL STRENGHT RATING TAKEN OFF WATCH; AFFIRMS ABK RATING

Um, wow.

Jeffrey Saut - in his latest missive is bullish and says:

--Gold to 1,100

--Bullish on equities..

"Since all government-sponsored economic stimulus packages since 1948 have worked, my firm is inclined to give this one the benefit of the doubt! I continue to invest accordingly".

Provides more context than just the small quote I provide so the full article is worth the read.

Points out the contrarian point of view is to now be bullish. Magazine covers everywhere are calling for calamities.

14:25 MBI, S&P AAA FINANICAL STRENGHT RATING TAKEN OFF WATCH; AFFIRMS ABK RATING

Long Live GS !!

If that SKF chart had dropped much lower it would have cracked my screen. :-)

market's ramping...

market's ramping...

Man, posting to the blog is painfully slow today.
Don't know what it is as reloading is pretty quick.

I added to DBC and DBA today.

FGIC downgraded to A from AA

AMBAC AAA confirmed STILL on negative watch...the News behind the RUMOR.
MBIA off negative watch list.
XL cut to A-.

And we rally?

Sorrty for double, missed MBI symbol in first post

Wow. I guess all those bailout/breakup talks weren't necessary? Yeah right.

If that SKF chart had dropped much lower it would have cracked my screen. :-)

I've GOT to get better updates. That little newsbite still hasn't filtered into any of my sources yet.

market's ramping...adding one chip each to DUG/SMN, staying with chips on SNDK...

market's ramping...adding one chip each to DUG/SMN, staying with chips on SNDK...

SRS @ 106.66

FATTYARBUCKLE: Did you catch the breakout in the $TNX before the XLF followed at 11:00AM PST?

sorry for the quadruple post->took so long to go through i had time to edit...

IWM is weakening...look out for bull traps here folks.

Large position on TWM @ 80.53

GOOG and MSFT are dead crossing on the 50 day EMA crossing lower over the 200 day their EMA....

DJIA 12,500 is a tough zone to play...think onlineaces is doing the right thing sticking to small caps...

Tradestation?

Anybody use Tradstation and having problems with it in the last 30 minutes? Mine keeps dropping quotes and tries to reload. Called Tradstation and they said everything is working fine.

TIA

EEM, I kept a close eye on the $TNX throughout the morning, although I was comparing it to the SPX, not the XLF. Regardless, $TNX was consistently stronger, which kept me optimistic. I didn't get a chance to track it in the afternoon, (mtg @ day job).

Upon reviewing the charts now, I probably wouldn't have had the foresight to consider the 11 PST move a "breakout," but just noticable strength, which would've kept me optimistic if I was holding longs...

Looking for this rally to carry higher maybe all the way to 12700...I am staying out of the shorts for now...

FattyArBuckle..only good for a trade man...credit markets rule...tough to hold...oh well...that may have been the quick surge for the day up...FAST MONEY !

BG.you smart, wise...AND Good looking too? :)

Haha...

Clarification:
It would've kept me optimistic if I was holding longs until EOD.

Thanks EEM...

If I was only 4 Inches Taller..I could have been someone...All that smoking my parents did...Damn Them...

Well..They did not know better...

BG: Brains over height..anyday ...make $$$$ with brains buy shoes with heels...

ask any woman you hardly know...and those you dont want to know..same answer SHOES..Manolo Blahniks...Dang that Carrie gurl from Sex in the City..

Since my google news searches are coming up too slow, what do you guys monitor for market news? I know some of you guys are getting next to real time with some of these alerts. Are you using alert services with your brokerages or some kind of subscription or what?

I'm out of TWM...bulls coming in...

Zenob...watch that XLF range break if it happens...

Shoes...My wife is a chef...I have never seen a woman happier with a new set of knives..I guess it's all how you look at life...

Now give me back my 68 Camaro and my wife would never see me again...My first girlfriend used to say I was married to that car...I did like the movie CHRISTINE...

Oh how priorities have changed

TORONTO, ONTARIO - (Feb. 25, 2008) - Noront Resources Ltd. ("Noront") (TSX VENTURE:NOT) is pleased to announce the discovery of a second massive sulphide occurrence located 2 kilometers to the southwest of its Eagle One magmatic massive sulphide occurrence within Noront's 100% owned Double Eagle Project in the McFauld's Lake Area of northeastern Ontario. "We are pleased to announce that semi-massive to massive sulphide mineralization has been encountered about 2 kilometers to the southwest of Eagle One, in what is believed to be a peridotite filled conduit of the Eagle One magmatic massive sulphide occurrence. Our new drill objectives are to focus on this new occurrence and also to complete drill testing several other high-priority geophysical targets within the Double Eagle project area," states Richard Nemis, President and CEO of Noront.

HIGHLIGHTS

- Nickel-copper massive sulphides in a sheared deformation zone hosted by peridotite have been encountered in four holes, located 2 kilometers to the southwest of Eagle One while testing airborne and ground confirmed geophysical anomalies.

EAGLE TWO

This new massive sulphide discovery occurs at the Aerotem Anomaly #2, located approximately 2 kilometers to the southwest of the Eagle One magmatic massive sulphide occurrence. Four holes have intersected massive to semi-massive sulphide mineralization. The rock units encountered at Eagle Two consist of strongly altered peridotite hosting a multi-phased deformation zone containing veins of sulphides ranging from a few centimeters wide to over 3 meters wide. The deformation zone varies in length from 3 meters to 26 meters in the holes drilled to date. The sulphide veins encountered in each hole are composed of pyrrhotite, magnetite, chalcopyrite and pentlandite with variable amounts of talc. Large crystals of pentlandite up to a few millimeters in size are evident in the most recent drill hole (NOT-08-1G8). A detailed account of this new discovery will be press released shortly.

Hole NOT-08-1G2 was drilled at local grid coordinates 32+17E, 5+73N with an azimuth of 155 degrees and initial dip of -50 degrees. After 10.9 meters of overburden and limestone the hole entered a strongly altered peridotite. A mineralized deformation zone was encountered over a length of 29 meters between 39 and 68 meters downhole, comprising a 3 meter section of massive sulphide-magnetite breccia and units of sulphide breccia with widths ranging from a few centimeters to a maximum of 1 meter in length throughout the entire zone. The hole was terminated at 239 meters in an altered peridotite.

Hole NOT-08-1G3 was drilled from the same set-up as 1G2 and the same azimuth but drilled at -65 degrees. After 11 meters of overburden and limestone the hole entered a strongly altered peridotite. The deformation zone was encountered between 43.3 and 46.7 meters (3.4 meters of core length) containing massive pyrrhotite-magnetite with chalcopyrite. Below the massive sulfide intersection, hole 1G3 contained two massive chromitite layers, the upper one being 5 meters thick starting at 123 meters to 128 meters, the lower one being three meters thick, terminating at about 143.7 meters core length.

Hole NOT-08-1G6 was drilled at local coordinates 32+50E, 7+10N at an initial azimuth of 155 degrees and an initial dip of -50 degrees. After 12.1 meters of overburden, the hole entered granodiorite until a depth of 81.5 meters. Following granodiorite, the hole entered strongly altered peridotite until encountering a deformation zone between 113.2 and 131 meters (17.8 meters of core length). Similar mineralization as in holes 1G2 and 1G3 was encountered, composed of sulphide breccia over intervals of a few centimeters up to 0.8 meters. These veins host semi-massive pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite and magnetite, and also showed a positive reaction to the DMG nickel test as in the previous holes. Chromitite seams and chromitite domains were encountered in this hole between 248 and 257 meters (9 meters of core length). A thin shear hosted sulphide zone was intersected from 257.5 to 258.2 meters downhole. This hole continued through a series of altered peridotite, non-altered peridotite and serpentinized dunite until its end at 348 meters.

Hole NOT-08-1G8 is being drilled at the same collar location as hole 1G6, with the same azimuth, however the initial dip was increased to -65 degrees. This hole is still underway, and has encountered massive sulphide mineralization between 123 and 130 meters downhole (7 meters of core length) The tenor of mineralization is much stronger in this intersection, this hole continues to test for a down dip extension of the aforementioned chromitite and sulphide zones encountered in holes 1G6 and 1G3. The drill result intersections presented above are not true width. True width determination will be referred to once the resource estimate is completed.

http://www.agoracom.com/ir/Noront/messages/739533

On my chart I have resistance at 27.25 which has already broke. Not really seeing any other resistance lines till about 30. Might just get a sub 100 entry back into SKF. It's already lower then my last entry(107). :-)

Out of Fancamp (FNC.V) at 2.06.

zenob: There is a bearish divergence on the RSI...on 60 min on XLF...lets see where it closes..breaking that range..not good for 2X inverse holders..but the $VIX is low....getting brains bashed out..

FXP is approaching it's support level as well. If the chinese market follows the US market up, this could be a good trade too.

no overnight holds for me..no cajones like the guy who bought a LARGE position of TWM and is now unwinding it..I wonder if he meant 10,000 shares or just 1000?

Correction, IF support holds it could be a good trade. If support breaks there's a LOT of air under it. lol

Don't think I'm going to jump in on anything either. I get the feeling they are going to try and run with this one. Which means lower entries still to come on my ultra shorts. lol

for the first time in a while i can confirm that 2 jr's i have been following for a few years
Miranda gold and Valgold moved up today with some volume while the miners took it on the chin.

im either having a stroke or the Venture exchange is starting to move, meaning the JR's mabey, just mabey are starting the long road to recovry...

its too early to tell, but a boy can dream non?

Google getting killed on high volume at the close. Still seems like this market is hanging by a thread. We will see how long this rally lasts.

There have been signs on life in the juniors for the past week. VAL.V CUU.V WHY.V up big today on no news. Volume is average though. Geologix is down for some reason.

Re: IMF sales

I don't know if anyone has come across the idea that the IMF is insolvent, but as a lender of last resort going out of business and selling its some of its assets makes one wonder. The IMF probably played a larger role in the spread of commercial paper and junk bonds than is really being admitted.

Quote:

" The gold sale proceeds would be used to create an endowment from which the income would be used to finance the IMF operations. The Treasury has had 'quiet discussions' with Congress and the industry, according to McCormick, and has some confidence that the plan could get the required congressional approval with industry support.

In response to questions today, McCormick said the administration has done a 'fair amount of work' in getting congressional support for the change, but again stressed that Congress and the administration will want to see the IMF's plans for reform before the sales are approved. He also said he hopes this could be achieved while the Bush administration is still in office.

McCormick put stronger exchange rate policy surveillance 'first and foremost' in the US's reform agenda. 'We see many countries rigidly managing their exchange rates resulting in some cases in trade distortions and excess reserve accumulation,' he said.

Last summer, the IMF's made some policy changes defining 'manipulation' and 'fundamental misalignment' of currencies and clarifying potential triggers for IMF examination.

Many US companies had hoped that this would make it easier for the IMF to put more pressure on China to let its currency appreciate. US auto companies, in contrast, have pressed the US to get Japan to allow the yen to appreciate in value. But the IMF so far has not taken any additional steps to press China on this issue, and has agreed with the Bush administration that Japan's currency is fairly traded."

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/02/25/afx4693165.html

Basically, this means the IMF will no longer be used to indebt impoverished nations, it will be the process by which disintermediation will occur.

I was thinking that the action in the big banks was not particularly good today and Todd Harrison has confirmed that he feels that way too. GS and C closed down.

I see Google got killed on the Pakistani YouTube fiasco. Why people would sell GOOG down $10 on a 2 hour YouTube outage is beyond me. Google is below the January lows now.

Hi!

Today I walked into an apple retailer to buy my first Mac.

I was lured in by the fantastic marketing around MacBook Air.

After one hour of serious talk with the sales agent, I came out with a MacBook Pro.

You are watchig my first post with this new machine.

So far so good.

At this point I am only unhappy with the small fonts on the screen.

Cheers!

maromatics
congrats! & welcome!

Maromatics, welcome to the light! Seriously, I'm looking for a new Mac, too. I have an older powerbook, and would like more screen real estate. Did you consider the desktop Mac pros? If not, why not, if I may ask?

Writersblock,

Because I am pretty mobile, and like to carry a laptop everywhere.

That is part of the reason why I was lured into the store by MacBiik Air, but I realised that I need a "real" machine, and not just a cool gadget...

Overall, I sense that this is a much better machine, but it is yet soon to tell, as I am trying to get used to it.

:-)

Hi again,

These cool backlit keys are larger than my previous keyboard, which makes me do more typos and write slower, but I like the smooth feel to it, so I guess I will be used to it...

Apple support, via Apple Care and their Genius Bars, are what really make Macs worth the extra $, in my opinion. Not that you'll need it, of course, but if you do, they're great. I've been having issues with my 5 year old powerbook (which I've also dropped!), but instead of trying to sell me a new one (when I'm clearly itching to buy), they have been helping me to keep this one going a little longer. Way to keep my loyalty forever. Hope you enjoy it!

Is everyone looking forward to the free realtime TSX quotes Vantage IR (www.vantagewire.com) is launching at PDAC? I know the management there, a very entrepreneurial bunch in my opinion. I can imagine Stockhouse and Stockwatch aren't so happy though, as they charge for RT quotes.

Hello Bill ,I have read about Visa's I.P.O. One comment was that Visa had a moat around it,as Warren Buffet has written about with Coke and others. What do you think about it Visa plans record $18bn IPO
By Emma Thelwell
Last Updated: 5:14pm GMT 25/02/2008

Visa, the world's biggest credit card network, plans to raise up to more than $18bn (£9bn) through its stock market floatation, in what could be Wall Street's largest ever listing.

Barclaycard - the biggest Visa card in Europe
The San Francisco-based group said it plans to sell 406m Class A shares at between $37 and $42 a share at its initial public offering (IPO). It said it may sell a further 40.6m shares if the demand is there, which would boost the potential size of the IPO to $18.8bn.

The fundraising target was revealed today in documents lodged with the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), which provided an update on the long-anticipated floatation.

Visa, which processed $3.3bn worth of transactions on 1.4bn cards as of March 2007, is controlled by around 13,300 banks and financial groups.

Barclays is expected to receive a significant windfall from the deal, thanks to Barclaycard - the biggest Visa card in Europe.

advertisement

A successful floatation would trounce AT&T's as the largest in US history. The telecoms group raised $10.6bn in 2000.

Visa's planned floatation follows the listing of rival Mastercard, which came to market in May 2006. Mastercard's shares have increased by more than five times during that period.

Despite concerns that the credit crunch could affect consumer card volumes, in last year's fourth quarter Visa reported profits of $424m on revenues of $1.49bn, according the SEC filing. Red Gillen, an analyst at Boston-based financial research group Celent, said: "Like Mastercard, Visa has room for growth, even in today's turbulent economy.

"Consumers on a diversified, international basis are increasingly swapping out paper cash and checks in favour of plastic cards. Each time they do so, Visa takes a little of the transaction amount for itself.

"Visa, like MasterCard, does not extend credit - rather, it serves as a ‘switch’ between merchants and cardholders’ banks. As such, Visa is largely immune from the current crisis facing credit-issuing banks in the U.S."

Hello Bill ,I have read about Visa's I.P.O. One comment was that Visa had a moat around it,as Warren Buffet has written about with Coke and others. What do you think about it Visa plans record $18bn IPO
By Emma Thelwell
Last Updated: 5:14pm GMT 25/02/2008

Visa, the world's biggest credit card network, plans to raise up to more than $18bn (£9bn) through its stock market floatation, in what could be Wall Street's largest ever listing.

Barclaycard - the biggest Visa card in Europe
The San Francisco-based group said it plans to sell 406m Class A shares at between $37 and $42 a share at its initial public offering (IPO). It said it may sell a further 40.6m shares if the demand is there, which would boost the potential size of the IPO to $18.8bn.

The fundraising target was revealed today in documents lodged with the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), which provided an update on the long-anticipated floatation.

Visa, which processed $3.3bn worth of transactions on 1.4bn cards as of March 2007, is controlled by around 13,300 banks and financial groups.

Barclays is expected to receive a significant windfall from the deal, thanks to Barclaycard - the biggest Visa card in Europe.

advertisement

A successful floatation would trounce AT&T's as the largest in US history. The telecoms group raised $10.6bn in 2000.

Visa's planned floatation follows the listing of rival Mastercard, which came to market in May 2006. Mastercard's shares have increased by more than five times during that period.

Despite concerns that the credit crunch could affect consumer card volumes, in last year's fourth quarter Visa reported profits of $424m on revenues of $1.49bn, according the SEC filing. Red Gillen, an analyst at Boston-based financial research group Celent, said: "Like Mastercard, Visa has room for growth, even in today's turbulent economy.

"Consumers on a diversified, international basis are increasingly swapping out paper cash and checks in favour of plastic cards. Each time they do so, Visa takes a little of the transaction amount for itself.

"Visa, like MasterCard, does not extend credit - rather, it serves as a ‘switch’ between merchants and cardholders’ banks. As such, Visa is largely immune from the current crisis facing credit-issuing banks in the U.S."

With these comments from the CEO this company has got to be toast.

"Chief Executive Officer Jay Brown also said he has ``questions'' about the company's 2007 preliminary results released last month and hasn't yet signed off on the statements, according to a letter to shareholders today.

``Everything we are working towards right now is centered on regaining stability,'' Brown said in the letter. ``We can expect a bumpy ride over the coming months and possibly longer.''

SMN hits a new 52-wk low->holding 40% positions in both SMN/DUG overnight, along with 1/2 position in SNDK...

FXP- may well jump to lower eighies/upper seventies tomorrow->good entry point...

"Points out the contrarian point of view is to now be bullish. Magazine covers everywhere are calling for calamities."

Posted by: geckojb [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 25, 2008 2:27 PM

geckojb- i've been thinking the same thing...how can we go down with so many negative stories? still think commodities more likely to lead the next wave down...or maybe we find contrarian resolution with rallies in financials/technology while commodities fall (which fits with a rising USD/gold correction scenario)...

N225 back above 14,000...

MBIA reports:"MBIA Inc., seeking to stave off a crippling credit rating downgrade, will stop writing guarantees on asset-backed securities for six months and will separate that business from its municipal unit within five years." --Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQj.AxjCbnpo&refer=home

Doomsday vault in Svalbard designed to protect and preserve samples of valuable seeds.

“Giant fans suck out all the available moisture and it's a steady -20C.”

“ . . more than 40 countries have had some or all of their seed banks destroyed in recent years”

Here's a job for someone: May be the middle of nowhere but “An armed guard stands outside - to fend off polar bears, apparently.”

http://tinyurl.com/yu253u

GBO- i've only been following this for two days->amazing price swings for a currency basket...

Midas Munk has a real heart of gold
Last Updated: 1:16am GMT 26/02/2008

Billionaire miner is happier giving to charity than to his own children, writes Andrew Cave

Is it more enjoyable to make money or to give it away? Peter Munk isn't sure. "Both are superb," says the 80-year-old billionaire, who has built Canada's Barrick Gold into the world's largest gold miner over the past 25 years and is now busy distributing his wealth.

“I feel sorry for those who don't give it away because they only get half the pleasure," he says. "Being able to give it away is a big motivating factor for me."

Not that Munk ever seems to have had a problem with motivation. The Hungarian-born Jewish dealmaker came to Canada after escaping from the Nazis in the early 1940s and, after a string of successes and failures in industries ranging from hi-fi equipment to tourism, moved into the gold industry.

Barrick was originally an oil and gas vehicle called Barrick Resources but, after 23 separate acquisitions, some involving companies 50 years older than itself, it now ranks number one in gold.

The company, listed in both Toronto and New York, is still expanding, helped by a soaring gold price, and Munk also made rather a lot of money in 2006 when he sold Trizec Properties, the North American real estate trust, for $4.8bn (£2.44bn), tripling his investment.

http://tinyurl.com/2krv6h

And now you know how Bill feels.
Priceless.
Giving is indeed better than receiving.

Up 3K on my PNP.TO thanks to NOT.V.

Zenob/others - Free RTT DeskAlert realtime news feed:

http://www.rttnews.com/apps/deskalert.asp

Paul Farrell's latest column ends up being a pretty good laundry list of our problems:

http://tinyurl.com/37bh2v

Can anyone shed some insight on the suspension of trading of NOT.v. There is very little news other than the news release.
disclosure long NOT
TIA
Gray

Oldgoat,

Thanks for that link! :-)

Looks like the FDIC is gearing up to become a real estate agency:
http://tinyurl.com/2hgh8b

N225 - The breakout of resistance I mentioned last night has become solid support, bounced off it twice tonight - we may get a rally before we continue the down trend...looking for short-term longs to set-up for long-term short...stops under new support..

Tuesday’s WSJ Heard on the Street

Citigroup Inc. disclosed that traders in its investment bank piled up daily losses of more than $100 million on 15 separate occasions last year.

Those 15 financially disastrous days, which Citigroup disclosed in its annual report filed late Friday but declined yesterday to describe in detail, added to worries the New York bank's problems are deeper than those that led to about $20 billion in mortgage-related write-downs last year, the ouster of its chief executive and a sinking stock price.

http://tinyurl.com/yrmjek
(May need subscription)

Bill: nice favicon (the icon that shows up on the browser tab). Oddly, I was just thinking to write requesting one (they are actually useful for archiving stories), when it appeared. Magic!

Photogray: See this group.

http://www.agoracom.com/ir/Noront/messages

Yesterday, The buzz reached a feverish pitch.

Good morning.

One downgrade to report today:

PAYX - to Neutral @ Banc of America Sec.

_________________________________________________

Have a great day.