So my previous statements about Platinum & Palladium popping up don't count if the rules get changed midgame.

more on the margin requirements changes that will cool the markets a bit.

http://tinyurl.com/ysatgj

Who's hopping into HGD today?

Hi,

European public gradually awakens: today I got a call from a not very discerning Client, who explained to me how he felt that the recent news he read from "problems" in US bond auctions were making him think twice about holding US denominated dollars.

The times, they are changing...

Correction: USD denominated assets.

:-)

Enjoy your weekend.

Moody says that between 1984 and the end of 2007 a total of 44 bond auction failures were recorded.

Yesterday 641 auctions of publicly offered bonds resulted in 395 failures, or 62 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

a few theme's im working with at this point:

bonds looking toppy but havent solidified their downtrend yet (imho), i think alot of people are jumping out or shorting too early and watching yeilds get driven back down during every minor market drop. [disclosure: no position in bonds]

gold looking good but the miner's are still playing catch up. the XAU:Gold ratio is looking like it has bottomed and moving its next leg up which is good news should gold make its push to $1000. this ratio has been a big one for me w/ respect to gold, i think that mass public participation in gold will be signaled by a Miners:Gold ratio favouring the miners again (after the past few years of underperformance)
[disclosure: long gold]

not liking financials, but it seems that news of foreign bank write downs and failures hasnt paniced North American Markets as easily as it did a month or two ago. is it a medium term bottom as the technicals seem to lean towards?

or are we one more write down away (by an american bank) from a re-test of the recent lows?
[disclosure: short financials]

Bill, I recall you mentioned some time ago that a key confirmation of recession would be a level of 320 on the CRB Index. It has been steadily climbing since that time and is now at 400 with an 14-day RSI of 76.

Given that all other evidence is that we are, in fact, in a recession -- i.e., unemployment numbers climbing, manufacturing and service activity down and housing, as we all know, in a complete meltdown -- do you have any thoughts on why commodities have been moving counter to these trends?

I_loser: See Colin Twiggs report.
Inflation/currency pumping pushes "prices" of USD denominated commodities. Demand isn't the only force being applied.

craig- if your last post was 2am, then you're probably waking up about now...to another nice overnight move on GFI, up about 2.7% from your (6th, 7th?) buy at the close...;)

rob d- reference you 1114p post last night...kirk's comments ring true if you focus on the positions that worked out over time (what about the ones that went down with the bear market)...i suppose the onyl real benchmark is how one performs compared to, say, the total market...and you need to factor in other possibilities->if you bought WGW at 2.07, holding through yesterday's 3.80 would look good...but not compared to someone who bought at 2.07, sold at 4.10, re-entered at 3.02, sold at 3.80->some traders have probably logged several hundred entries/exits...

Good morning from Amish Antarctica.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

LLTC - to Buy @ UBS

Downgrade:

ABX - to Neutral @ UBS

New Coverage:

CCJ - Market Perform @ BMO

Price Target Raised:

RIMM - $160 to $165 @ AmTech Research

-------------------------------------------------

WFMI is Zack's Bear of the Day. Report here (click on .pdf file):

http://tinyurl.com/3569np

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day and a better weekend.

2nd - true - i have to be more disciplined and decide whether my purchases are to be trades or investments...i am still trying to find my style...

wavesmash-> HGD could take off anytime...trick is to stay away until it does...the 2-hour fills and high commissions->not my favorite trade...i wouldn't call it hopping into HGD, more like hand your ticket to the valet and wait for him to bring it around...

wavesmash-> HGD could take off anytime...trick is to stay away until it does...the 2-hour fills and high commissions->not my favorite trade...i wouldn't call it hopping into HGD, more like hand your ticket to the valet and wait for him to bring it around...

Good Morning 2nd! I think that is east coast time, I went to bed about 11 pm PST...and almost didn't wake up before 5. Yawn.

I was going to make the same point, although i have some trades like rob describes. How about MOS at I think 28? I forget what rule # "no whining" is. :>)

It depends on if you walk away from the trade.
I was into WGDFF (now WGW) at 1.91 or so, sold above $4, rentered as you suggest many times up and down taking profits many times. I bought some the other day for 3.50....and sold it again.

If you compress the timeline, look at GFI.
Yesterday I was in and out like a jack in the box. Made several trips (4 or 5 I lost count)between 15.09 or so and approx. 15.30, then that trade wouldn't come to me and the range went from approx. 15.28 to 15.58. Then a pullback to 14.70's last night AH, now back to 15.30 or so. Compare all those moves to one from approx. say 14.90 up and down to this AM's approx. 15.30 , or even the low of 13.10 (I was buying there too) up to the high 14's.

However, Rob may have a point in a bull market where the trend tends to be positive with lower volatility. That isn't the market we are in now though.

HGD- put a limit out there and it filled immediately (9.14USD)...usually a sign it goes lower first, we'll see...

2nd

Can see why HGD is not your most favourite trade as the Valet has to cross the northern border and the waits there are often longer than 2hrs. :-) ...grrr!

maromatics - thanks for the post.

As foreign capital CONTINUES to leave the US, those capital flows will show up in the TIC (Treasury International Capital) report as deficits. In simple terms, the TIC measures the income and expense statement for the US dollar. With the degradation of the TIC, the USD will decline like a stock would. This leads to price inflation for imports and commodities. This is a very important report to watch, IMO.

Dollar down, gold up, pretty simple.

gwuk- LOL->forgot the border crossing...

Taking another try at DUG this morning. I'm going to be a little more liberal in my stop. But still keeping things very tight in these volatile markets.

I see Hecla is getting beaten about the face and neck this morning after reporting earning in line with expectations. Yikes ... as I'm typing the ticker just spiked up. You gotta love market makers running stops.

are they going to buy this dip, or let it drop...if i were long, just couldn't get into it today...taking QID at 51.99...

are they going to buy this dip, or let it drop...if i were long, just wouldn't be able to get into it today...taking QID at 51.99...

2nd,

My intuition tells me that they let it drop today.

IL- DUG/SMN taking off...let's hope XLE zips to that lower channel line ;)

I got into HGD yesterday near the close at ~$9.20. Got into DUG yesterday also at ~$39. I have the same feeling as many here - Gold and oil looks toppy....

maromatics- hope you're right...we need to get out of this trading channel either way..betting down for now...

2nd and maro, I agree that it doesn't look like a good day to be buying dips. But I'm an excellent countra indicator, so we could see a rally of epic proportions. ;0

But Bloomberg is playing up the collapse of the financials, downgrade of Fannie and failure of municipal bond auctions. Then there is the monoline insurers and the ultimatum from regulator Eric Dinallo. That shoe hasn't dropped just yet.

I'm a loser because I sold my SKF on Tuesday morning when I had planned for, and should have been, buying.

"SHadowtats" estimate of US economic numbers as compared to the government's
published statistics:

http://tinyurl.com/3bhh8b

...Nothing new or undebated here, just a couple of quick reference charts.

IL- it's not so much that i'm thinking 'bear' this morning, more a sense that bulls lack motivation->every dip they've bought has collapsed back on them...so i think they're sidelined for a bigger dip...

GLD - No shares available to short.

MtnGntx - M3 at 15%.

I have almost zero trust in government officials and 99% of the talking heads on financial TV.

Gee, I wonder why?

2nd, agreed. Easier to stand aside here.
Sold GFI/INTC/MSFT this AM for slight gains.
Missed my chance at SKF for 112. Heck and dang.

Waiting with cash is good.

Only slight positive today? Cara 100 SBUX.
Bill's magic...

2nd ... I agree. But let's see if we get another Friday afternoon rally. I rather think history will not repeat.

continued -

Yesterday, I heard Larry Kudlow call the stagflation story a "canard". A canard in this context is to tell a deliberately false statement in order to cheat investors out of money.

Who the hell does he think he's fooling? This is why gold has done what it's done and it was easy to see many months ago. He is a living canard (that I also think is a duck).

Investors get better information from MTV than his show.

Larry Kudlow, YOU are a Canard.

Looks like 1330 might hold.

exiting eev fxp dug

In view of recent comments re RCI....today's headline:

Rogers Communications Q4 Profit Surges 44%; Revenue Up 13%

2/22/2008 10:44:37 AM Friday morning, Canada-based communications and media company Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI, RCI.A.TO, RCI.B.TO) reported a 44% surge in its profit for the fourth quarter. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share for the quarter rose 57%, while consolidated revenue climbed 13%. Wireless subscriber postpaid net additions during the quarter were 158 thousand. In addition, the company reported a 6% increase in wireless postpaid Average Revenue Per User or “ARPU”, and a decline in postpaid churn rate. The company maintained its outlook for adjusted operating profit and revenue for fiscal year 2008.

Goldcorp. had underperformed the $C gold price, but leading up to the earnings report has shifted the entire weekly chart above the overlay, except that the shares are still lagging below the $C gold price somewhat.

Stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/3xuo59

Ok, the much over discussed triangle that CNBC and the world noticed is now broke down..unless of course it closes above. Now that we're all reduced to watching the markets second by second waiting for the next room of shoes to fall what is it they will have us focus on next?

Here are a few ideas:

--Monoline countdown clock. I think CNBC needs a countdown clock for the downgrade of the monolines. An arbitrary date of next Wednesday should be work fine. Some kind of scary breaking news music to go with it would be super fantastic.

--More Dennis Kneale telling us that the market only being down 2,000 points from it's high is proof enough that things are really pretty good.

--A continous bar graph in the upper right screen that shows total right off's to date due to sub prime.

--A one hour Don Luskin show called "You're an Idiot and I am Super Smart". The show would have no guests since nobody could really prove they know more than Don. Don would end wach show by extolling you to buy stocks with both fists no matter the price levels.

Boredom can produce some really creative thinking. Feel free to play along.

Re: Shadowstats

Might be that all CPI-deflated charts found on the web require a signficant percentage re-adjustment.

Sold the AEM covered calls I bought yesterday @.90 to cover and took the 59% profit.

Looks like XLE and PMs turning back up, but how far?

g034,

One of favorite LK lines is, "gold is doing well because the economy is doing well".

I think you got Larry all wrong. He's a real freaking genius. :^)

Regards

Interesting....
Top nasdaq performers today...Lululemon, Red Robin burgers, Volcom, The9 ltd, Amazon.

Re: drawing trendlines
Do most traders draw trendlines based on candlestick charts or line charts? If they use candlestick charts, do they draw trendlines from the bottom of the tail or the bottom of the bar? On the S&P chart since the January low I get 3 different trendlines using these 3 different methods.

Thanks for any help!
Donna

g034, yesterday I read an article on yahoo finance w/ no byline other than "CNBC" saying the stagflation fears "of the last few days" were giving people another opportunity to buy stocks. One economist in the article opined that we are nowhere near calling this a recession because wages and employment hadn't dropped. The rest of the article was given to encouraging people to buy stocks like Altria and Proctor and Gamble. Commodities were called "risky." No mention of stocks being risky, I might add. Would this fit the definition of a canard? Has there been much talk lately on Bubblevision about stagflation? I don't watch it myself, but I'm curious about the full frontal assault against the idea.
Denny

Donna, I have seen all methods drawing trendlines. I personally use candlesticks and draw them at the High and lows, which you call the tails. I think if you just use closing prices you are missing some important data but that's me.

Donna: Intraday on candlesticks,

Re: Trendlines

Well, you can look at the weekly charts, they're very important for establishing long term trends.

Donna, I use bar charts. One thing about this topic is you can go to several well respected TA sites like Colin Twiggssite and see how they do it. Whatever you do I think it's important to be consistent.

QID- short-term exit at 52.82...

Craig,

Any opinion on rural telecom, CNSL ?

Looking mighty cheap today with huge divy.

Regards

2nd...See what I wrote to you last night....Then look at the XLF/DJIA chart macd flattening/crossing. Karma trading? LOL!

geckojb,

The Wall Street Exminer officianadoes have had a very long standing website that deals with the credit space. They were even sued by a mortgage retailer when that company went into default, claiming damages for calling them imploded. A company official had sent the website inside company information, and they posted the info.

The libel chill didn't work, however and they created a second website:

The Mortgage Lender Implode-o-meter

http://ml-implode.com/

which led to the Hedge Fund Implode-o-meter:

http://hf-implode.com/

Donna, re Trendlines

Yes I agree with what others have said, but I would add that it also depends on the characteristics of the stock or index.

If its highly traded then usually those long tails have significant volume associated with them, check on the intraday chart to make sure.

If you're looking at a thinly traded stock then you may find no volume association and thus I would discount it as just someone who placed a market order without checking bid/ask depth and chewed very deeply into one side or the other.

In the short term you may also see long tails on a chart, which end up being a bad data tick and a few hours or even a day later will disappear from the chart. Again here intraday volume around that point will usually give the right answer.

gld finding support at old high

spy broke uptrend of triangle

close will be important for both

CNSL: Support on the multiyear chart at 12.60, record low spiked down to 11.61 (not a likely occurance) and a $1.54 div? So current price 13.70 minus 1.54 is still above support.

Seems like decent risk/reward over time. How are the fundamentals in rural telecom with slowing econ/record foreclosures? That's the fly in the ointment/unknown.

Look at a 3 year chart of IWA. May be better bet?

Speaking of trend-lines, I realized that I had been drawing them on log charts. That means the actual prices are actually curving upwards. So I would assume that a parabolic rise on a log chart is a sign to get out.

Anyone looking at GIX.V? It seems to be having trouble following the Gold price. Is there something I'm missing on this one?

Thanks, Craig.

I like both of them at these prices.

Regards

Geologix is doing an offering at $2.25 a share that should close any day now. It seems the stock price is being magnetized to the offering price until the deal closes.

INTC/MSFT small positions.

BH, giving CNSL/IWA a shot. Small bites to scale into on all.

2nd...How's the Karma? Looks like it might be going bad...

Donna - one of the difficult aspects of technical analysis is that securities behave differently. There is no perfect answer, as Bill says; it is more art than science.

For example - if you use MACD, you may use (12, 26, 9) for the S&P and (8, 18, 7) for GLD (I know, Kiamu, I know...).

Or do you use Exponential Moving Average, simple, geometric or smoothed?

To keep from getting a headache on these things, try to keep it simple at first. Over time, you will find what works for you in various stocks. For trendlines, I like bars, so I use the top and bottom of bars. Many traders that use candlesticks use the bodies, but I think if you look at enough candlestick charts, you will find that a trendline with a number of touches will have most of the "tails" as the trendline with some of the "tails" extending through the trendline with the body extremities being on the trendline. I would start with the actual highs and lows of all bars and go from there. Test different trendlines to see what is working at the time and use that as your basis.

For moving averages, you might want to try the 50 and 200 dma as simple calculation and the 90 dma as exponential as a start.

I think Bill states that he spent 48 straight hours looking at charts before he got a good feel for market movements. Brew a pot of coffee and get to work ;-) .

Hope that helps.

Ruh-Roh...

War on Terrier... My dogma getting run over by my Karma.

go34...dude...just one pot of coffee? :>)

re win, iwa and cnsl:
"a Credit Suisse analyst downgraded the telecommunications services sector to "Market Weight" from "Overweight" on economic worries." from
http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/default.aspx
While Bill has taught to look at all anal-ysts critically, this, as many calls have some merit or thought put into it. Where does rural america head in this recession? That fly in the ointment...more like a big bluebottle fly stuck in a big pile of **** in americas (financial) barnyard. Its gonna get stepped on.
I will admit all three look promising if this were not a recession
peace
Gray

EEMTRADER You're familiar with Aldila shafts. ALDA special dividend $5 to holders as of 2/25.

Expect dividend payment to drop stock after distribution. Looks like the time to buy was on 2/11 w/ a 14 handle.

Just a thought....yesterday I heard Iowa RE is more valuable than Manhattan RE.

Also Hawaii....sorry Kaimu.

So it depends on if those phones are hooked up to corn farmers or town dwellers.

Craig, hows the surf?

Remember who has the money today (other than investment bankers)?

Farmers, that's who!

Seamus: thank you ..no I am a mizuno kinda guy...and ...volume not high for me..can I buy now and get the dividend?

Looks like the mid day lull in volume may push the S&P down below it's 1330 support. We'll see what happens when everybody get's back from lunch.

EEMTRADER, Looks like it:

CNN "Aldila, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALDA) today announced that it had been advised by NASDAQ that the ex-dividend date for its previously announced $5.00 per share special cash dividend will be March 11, 2008. Shareholders of record as of February 25, 2008 desiring to receive the special dividend should therefore hold their Aldila shares through March 11, 2008."

Don't like this volume either. Still, may pick some up thinking of lower tax on div. Company has a popular product, but lots of competition and evolving technologies in the nano world.

PNP.TO - Pinetree up another 5.4% today.

Aucourant at February 22, 2008 11:26 AM

RE the log vs linear discussion,

Here's one of my old posts with a couple of examples which I put up on another board as we can't embed charts here, hopefully that will change on Bill's new site.

http://tinyurl.com/2b5tuq

craig- that's right...chips all on Banker today...

Seamus: Thanks for the tip...does the market look like its setting up for an equidistant move down from the morning..$SPX 1320, dji 12100?

Looks like it's trying to ski down the lower bollinger on SPY and DIA on the 5 minute chart.

go34: Rad! Fast and furious, hanging more than ten....up, down. Hope to catch a big golden wave!

I must be losing my mind, considering dipping a toe into XLF while it's sitting on it's support line and while S&P is sitting on it's support line.

"Remember who has the money today (other than investment bankers)?

Farmers, that's who!"

Seamus, it may depend on which side of the 49th parallel you are on. In Canada there are a few farmers with some money, but most are trying to pay off huge debts from the poor farming economics over the past number of years. Visited with one farmer who has a large volume of wheat and he said, "Sure the price is high, but try to sell some. No one is buying, so we have lots in the bins, but that isn't translating into cash in the bank." Machinery dealers are making sales not because farmers have more cash than they know what to do with, but because they haven't replaced machinery for so many years that they have to now that there is some expectation of profits.

So U.S. farmers/cattlemen have been doing incredibly well for the past number of years, to a large extent because of trade barriers.

Hi,

I wonder if a "rich" US farmland will impact the coming US election....

Hi,

I wonder if a "rich" US farmland will impact the coming US election....

bobj don't disagree with you re barriers.

I'd send that wheat out via railroad to Port Rupert and ship it overseas.

re election & politics . . farming community has strong lobbying presence . . . inside and outside of gov't . . . people don't like giving up subsidies, especially the rich ones.

Food inflation may override objections, but what if there's a poor crop or drought? Prices will escalate more and farmers will complain about the impact on them. Hasn't been one in the U.S. Midwest farmland for many years per Don Coxe.

Buy 200 Shares of SNDK
Order Number:B22NJPSX
Filled at $25.24

Buy 200 Shares of INTC
Order Number:B22NLMVW Details Filled at $19.62
Buy 200 Shares of QLD
Order Number:B22NMKBT Details Filled at $68.50

losing a little downside momentum- taking another tranche of QID off at 53.07...

ALOHA !!

Found this on ETrade Global, but I have similar "warnings" at other sites.

Investing outside the United States involves additional risks related to currency fluctuations, economic and political differences and differences in accounting standards.

Where's the warning for investing in the United States? The same risks apply here and MORE !!!

hedging a bit with INTC at 19.65...

and last one for a tadying guy who always
gives me a option to buy but I do not
but this time I did. which is
OEYCC-CALL (OEY) S & P 100 INDEX MAR 615 (100 SHS)
Status Filled at $15.20 only one contract

vinod- i see you like catching the lows and riding them up...and a lot of traders do well trading only one direction...now that they've made it easy to trade short by going 'long' the inverse ETFs, may want to try it out...

SSO - 68.00

Trap door risk in the market: bond insurer downgrades are imminent:

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080222/23291851.html?.v=1

Chart posting and linking 101

MY updated version is still at the same URL link below.

Changes include how to properly link and embed Stockcharts charts in accordance with their TOS requirements. Following these rules will avoid users following a link to an error message "Visit Stockcharts to view this chart"

http://tinyurl.com/29fv5t

SSO - Added @ 67.63

The narrowing DOW triangle is still intact. 12,100 is a marginal violation and 12,000 would be definitive.

Had to rescue a friend with broken truck and am starting the trading day at 1:30 Eastern. Bought some calls on the DIA at 123.

NASDAQ is in a different pattern and is more bleak.

QID- taking chips off at 53.34...
DUG/SMN->1/2 off here...
adding SNDK at 25.02...

ALOHA !!

I have written here many times about the GLD and SLV ETFs and the conflict of interest. The main problem I have spoken of is "accountability". In other words, I already know the POG and POS are manipulated so it is not a radical assumption to believe that the same HB&B that shorts gold and silver is the same custodian of the GLD and SLV ETFs and the associated inventory. It all boils down to a matter of not knowing where your money is. I have also pointed out the same situation exists in the Ultra Short ETFs. As US and global banks melt down they will become more and more desperate. Now more than any other time in history it is most important to know where your money is ... or in this case where your GOLD is!

Another point I have made about GLD and SLV is "supply". Is it not sensible that if there are short supplies of the monetary metals that GLD and SLV would NOT be able to meet their business model of buying and holding gold and silver? I have said many times the best entities for holding physical gold are mints or bullion vaults like GoldMoney that allow for "allocated" bullion. I believe mints are first in line for mine supply. Then comes companies like Johnson-Matthey. As yet I know of no gold or silver mines that refine and sell their own gold and silver bars in mass. They used to and perhaps they will again someday. One such mine that did was the Sunshine Mine in Idaho.

I look for signs and so far I have seen two instances where GLD inventories have been stagnate over the past month. When supply does not increase with the rise in the POG then that tells me GLD and SLV are in trouble. Only one of two things is going on ... Either GLD has no supply to purchase or they are off loading to the futures markets.

Here is yet another sign ... BUYER BEWARE!!

From Jim Sinclair site and Dan Noricini ...

READ ON:
Author: Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,

Something smells mighty fishy to me about what is going on in this ETF of late. Some of us have long believed that the inherent flaw in this ETF is in its auditing process which is less than transparent. If the bad guys who comprise COT and are the price managers on behalf of the US monetary authorities needed another source of gold for the supply that they feed into the market to suppress the price, the ETF is a perfect vehicle for this. I find it a huge stretch of the imagination to see gold soaring into all time highs and the one major indicator of investment demand for that same metal sitting there unchanged when it comes to reported holdings for nearly two weeks! I just read this AM that platinum and palladium holdings in the London ETFs for those metals are soaring because of investment demand. Why then is the gold ETF not reporting a sharp increase in its holdings? To believe that nothing has changed in there is to believe that the sun rises in the West.END

OG->nice timing on the SSO trade...

Hehehe...interesting thinking...
UYG at 33.12 (XLF support @ 26.18) Out if XLF breaks support.

SNDK: what 2nd said only .03 more....:>)

2nd

I wish I know all the streak of trading
Most of my trade is base on advice from 2nd
And also advise from a guy of stock trading room
Also a guy at derivative trading room tells me once a while which oex option to buy
He said never to sell put
Write a cover call, buy necked put or call
So, I am having one on one half an hour of trading from him time permit

Also yester I was fixing Blackberry problem of a mutual fund manager and I asked him why every one are telling us to be a long term investor while turnover ratio of any mutual fund is over 100%
He laugh did not say any thing
Also I show this site to few people in trading room, they do not know Bill Cara
They did Google search and said this site is more toward gold, metal and Canadian stock
This week was very good for me

Any thoughts on PineTree as a way to get exposure to a bunch of juniors? Pros, cons?

Any thoughts appreciated.

Stv

2nd - Thanks, but compliment may be undeserved. We now have a double bottom is SSO at 67.50. "A'int no such thing as a triple bottom"...or so it is said. Seems like it either lifts from here, or the bottom falls out.

"It is therefore at the very inception of the movement that a man needs to know whether to buy or to sell."
--Jesse Livermore

so INTC and SNDK are worth 3% less today than yesterday...or vice versa...? to quote bill, it's not rocket science->find the market's rhythm, buy on weakness, sell on strength...

...as I commented in here on Saturday, looks like we are getting downside resolution for the weddge/s, maybe the lower bollinger bands will hold...

good trading,
ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

Almost time for the 3'oclock rush hour. Anybody else on pins and needles waiting to see which way it heads?

Another story on How Hedge Funds Manipulate Markets....

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/205

This vinod character is for real the accent and all?

He says his investment selections are based on a forum poster he just started following (no offense to you 2nd :) and a few traders that toss him a bone when he fixes they computer and buys an option no less!

You can usually start counting the days until an inexperienced investor like this takes on massive losses then wonders where they went wrong. Oh well I guess we all have been there before.

Good luck vinod.

SSO - Boll bands very tight; something's gotta give.

Too much downside risk for me to go long here. Holding my shorts.

That, and I only have one day trade left before I'm labeled a "pattern day trader." As if that's a bad thing... Hehe.

remainder of DUG/SMN off here...with the exception of HGD, planning to stay long over the weekend...

AAPL down to 117...wow! What a ride down for Apple.

MON @ 114.75

SSO - Liftoff!

That's an entry position in MON

Geologix up solidly today. Perhaps the offering has closed.

PNP.TO now up 7.8%

MBI and ABK are down 6.5% and 10.5% respectively. Looks like the downgrades are in the mail.

Ok, I'm about to give up. I have no idea what it's going to do. After it looked like support was going to hold I considered a short term XLF play. Then when it just kept trading sideways I figured I'd just wait till the last hour to see if it would maybe rally back up and give me a good re-entry for SKF. Now I'm considering just jumping back into some SKF before the bell just in case panic sets in before Monday.

I'm glad it's Friday. Another day of this and I'd have a break down. lol

SKF jumped up on nice volume. MBI down almost another half percent, -7.2

STO - Seems to be a problem with second-stage booster ignition. Gauges (MACD, RSI, STO) all reading normal and all systems "go!", but escape velocity not achieved. Time to push the "Destruct" button?

OK, here comes the volume to the down side...look out below!

AHAHA Wagner's "ride of the valkries" just started playing on my playlist!! Right as the big push downward started...

STO - Triple bottom broken to downside.

Down we go to test DOW 12,000!

Back into SKF. Gonna ride the sled down the hill.

low volume on upticks, big volume on down ticks...

and stopped out. this is crazy.

OG-> NOW we have lift off...;)

Ouch.

News driven market all about the monolines. Market hangs on every breath of CNBC. Wild.

Houston - We no longer have a problem! (That was close; had finger on "Eject!")

who's doing the buying? PPT?

this monster is going to close positive. Never would have guessed it. Although, now I'm wishing I'd gone with my initial feeling and bought some XLF while it was sitting on support.

PPT right on time at 3:30.

You know, it would be polite if the PPT called ahead first so I could make sure to put away my ultrashorts...

If I hadn't had a tight stop set, that would have stung having to eat a 4 dollar drop in about 60 seconds.

Hearing on Bloomberg radio that there may be asettlement for the insurers ABK, MBI.

Not the PPT. It's a direct reaction to Gasparino saying a deal for one of the monolines is close with a consotrtium of banks. This market has been waiting for a resolution to the monolines and will move on every bit of news. Who knows if the deal actually goes through.

QLD out @70
OEYCC @18.00

I wonder how many days worth of a rally that will be good for? Think it'll hold them over till Monday before reality sets in again?

vinod- ! ;)
INTC/SNDK off here...

Heh, so history does repeat. Same Friday rally happened last week. No one wants to be short or long going into weekend. That's my guess.

But I also think the monolines blow up sooner rather than later.

Sick of losing money from continuing Govt bailouts and Fed tinkering. This is getting rediculous. I might just go trade currencies and work on studying the ToG.

Yes we have launch, now will it hold till close.

I was watching the slide slow down on most index's early afternoon and all getting a MACD cross around 1-2 PM, also positive moves on the MACD histograms.

3 day, 15 min charts that I often follow
http://tinyurl.com/23mq2g

A CNBC commentator noted that a bailout plan for bond insurer Ambac (ABK 10.01, +0.78) could be announced as early as Monday or Tuesday next week.

nice to see them closing it back inside the wedge, bigs sucked in some shorts to scald? or sucking in longs now to scald? guess we have to wait until next week to know ... rest easy LOL

On the plus side SKF bounced back up off support at 110.42. On the bad side my stink bid was at 110 even and didn't fill.

out all
sndk/intc/dell/qcom

MON out at 117.03 on trailing stop

Hi,

This close is absurd.

There it goes. Stink bid on SKF filled at 109.72. Now I'll just have to see if support holds at 110 come Monday morning.

Zenob, you probably got your fill by now.

I can't wait to hear the details of the bond insurer bail out.

It seems that every day we have new reason to swear off these markets as nothing more than an elaborate con game. Every day it swings wildly one way and then another.

How can anyone build real wealth in a climate like this?

I'm going to study muni-bonds this weekend. Equities have become a joke.

MAcromatics: Absurd is right..but trade the market the way it wants to be irrational eh? I need a postcard to thank someone ..$4K in 30 minutes...anyday..anytime..anyway it comes.!!

SSO - Over and OUT!

wow. that was incredible.

EEM,

:-)

Congratulations mate, enjoy your weekend!

Macromatics: ..times like these..gotta have reflexes like a fighter pilot, luck of the devil and bags of alpha stocks ...ZERO MENTAL BIAS..you have a great weekend too...!!

Quasi - Have you got a link you could post that generates those stockcharts in real time in your format?

It isn't free markets anymore when your forced to macro day trade. No one in their right mind holds long term anymore. In fact the only long term holding is the working peoples retirement dollars entrusted to institutions. When all the black boxes get done scalping those retirement dollars then we'll get the truth from the banks about all the sub prime smoke and mirrors.
You can bet the so called bail out for the insurers is another way to keep people from knowing just how much fraud has gone on in those banks for years.

Geckojb,
RE:Vinod
I'm afraid THE Vinod is just another Poser. Posting about trades well after they've moved in his direction is one indication. Declaring perfect exits without first declaring entries in advance is another. His claim to have purchased 200 QCOM at $42 the other day seems unlikely to me as QCOM traded 18,768,763 shares that day. 8770 of which went through at $42
Q 2008-02-20 09:28:25 42.00 0.05 1,000
Q 2008-02-20 09:28:25 42.00 0.05 724
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:00 42.00 0.05 200
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:13 42.00 0.05 100
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:44 42.00 0.05 1,887
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:44 42.00 0.05 2,583
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:46 42.00 0.05 1,383
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:46 42.00 0.05 493
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:46 42.00 0.05 100
Q 2008-02-20 09:30:46 42.00 0.05 300
Wannabe in my books.

Yikes...your market on crack!

Anyone following Seamus? Not bad for a few seconds adrenaline. 114.59 to 116.67. I didn't know he was going to trade it so I held.
Get a load of CHSCP. Unbelievable.
Thank you for the heads up Seamus.

Earlier I was buying GFI at $14.59 while stressing some. That's gone....the stress that is.

My server puked out or UYG would have been much more fun and less stressful. I did fill an SKF order in the fray. AMBAC *rumor*....we'll see.
took the UYG off the table at the close.
AMBAC isn't going to help the broker dealers or fix the bank's bottom lines.

BH, how's that CNSL? LOL! IWA too.

How'd you do 2nd? The final minutes had to help.
Gunslingers shot up the joint.
I'm ordering that NEW book, "Come into my Casino".

OldGoat, re chart gallery

If you are a Stockcharts member you can get them under the "candleglance" view mode. I use it quick often to get a quick look at my different favorite lists. They are not streaming, but will be up to date whenever you refresh, for the indexes there's no delay but on individual stocks there is a delay unless you subscribe to "real time" again its not streaming. But for the money well worth it.

Now if you are not a member its a bit more restrictive, you can only get daily charts. Here's a link to the free "candleglance" page.

http://tinyurl.com/2zmmdq

YYZTrader - something didn't seem right. I suspected he was tying to play us. The whole Borat accent and his persona didn't seem right. I leave open the possibilty that he is real but my opinion of his amateurish trading stands.

YYZTrader

FWIW, thought that vinod qcom trade was a GTC (good to cancel). Also, his $OEX option was under water after he posted only to turn green with the rocket close. Don't know about the other actions as I have my hands full but may be early to reach judgement IMO.

YZT TRader....maybe you will make more money focusing on your equity curve and alerts then worrying about someone else?

STOCKTICKR has an online tracking system.

Did you see that GS rocket move $6 in 30 mins...DANG...LONG LIVE GS !!

VINOD...you go son..make as much money as you can whenever you can, however you can...and when you can do it consistently..write a book about it..I'll buy it.

The closer we get to the armageddon the more shameless are market players become trying to milk the last drops before running away from this country with their capital. Being more or less market neutral I did not loose in this particular move but somehow it left me in a deeply depressed state. Hypocrisy is the dominating rule of life for this generation.

Re Vinod. Let's not rush to judgement, not that it should matter to any of us except maybe Bill.
Bill has the tools and personel to do more checking.

Some of Vinod's announced buys today included order numbers and were close to mine, entirely possible. Some he posted were above my buys. He also told us he is putting in auto orders which could easily fill at his price. I've been doing that and discussed this privately with 2nd as a viable strategy in this gunslinger's market.

It's perfectly acceptable to be suspicious but let's be careful we don't hang out someone that may be innocent until we have something more than numerical possibilities. Still a decent shadow of doubt left IMO.

Regardless, I owe many here a BIG Thank you for calling out some nice selections today.

As many have said The end of day rally means nothing when you look at the big picture...

Just gives us more time to line up our shorts at better prices and sell some of ur remaining holdings to the highest bidder...

Don't think anyone has the money to bailout the monolines..Just more talk and nervous bears

BTW....I caught myself in one of those language misunderstandings and I was wrong as some of you may recall. Just to mention the possibility.

ALOHA !!

MOLYCOR-MOR.V/MLYFF(US)
Just hit the Mother Lode on Manganese grades in Nevada or maybe it was the earthquake! Up 26% on 2.6mil share volume. One of the LR Group incubator I have posted about in the past. This should draw some interest coming into PDAC ...

READ ON:
Molycor Gold Corp.: High Grade Manganese Discovery in Nevada
Friday February 22, 1:31 pm ET

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Feb 22, 2008 -- Molycor Gold Corp. (the "Company") (CDNX:MOR.V - News)(Other OTC:MLYFF.PK - News)(Frankfurt:M1V.F - News) is pleased to announce the discovery of high grade manganese grading 35.2% Mn over 15 feet (4.60 meters)in hole # TM-07-003 during the Phase I drilling program carried out on the Tami-Mosi Gold property located 6.5 miles south of Ely, Nevada.
Drilling is complete and all assays have been received for the program which consisted of 14 reverse circulation holes totaling 8,420 feet (2,567 meters) being drilled into the four identified gold bearing areas located out on the pediment under the alluvial cover as identified by biogeochemical and geophysical surveys.

Assays were performed by ALS Chemex Laboratories, located in Vancouver, B.C.

Significant manganese assays are as follows:

-------------------------------------------------------
Hole # Feet Mn% CU%
-------------------------------------------------------
TM-07-003 130 - 135 34.1 NSA
-------------------------------------------------------
135 - 140 40.4 NSA
-------------------------------------------------------
140 - 145 31.1 NSA
-------------------------------------------------------
145 - 150 1.7 2.27
-------------------------------------------------------
ADVERTISEMENT


Samples from 105 - 125 feet in hole # TM-07-003 are being tested in 5 foot intervals for manganese and barium over limits are being re-assayed.

Hole # TM-07-003 is located 250 meters southeast from hole # TM-07-009 and has an untested zone with a strike length of over 1,200 meters, the next closest hole being hole # TM-07-011.

The old workings of a small scale past producing high grade manganese mine is located approximately 600 meters southeast from hole # TM 07-011 and the mine operated in the early 1900's and the manganese was used for steel production during the war effort. Production figures for this operation are not known or available from the US Geological Servey.

Manganese is one of the primary ingredients for the production of steel and there is currently little to no commercial production in the US.

The exploration program was originally initiated to test for gold in the four areas to target the silicified zones contained within the Joanna Limestone and Chainman Shale, rock types similar to rocks that host other disseminated gold/silver deposits of northeast Nevada.

The drilling program intersected gold values within the silicified zones of Joanna Limestone and Chainman Shale contacts and assays are as follows:

------------------------------------------
Hole # Feet Au grams
------------------------------------------
TM-07-002 240 - 245 1.02
------------------------------------------
TM-07-004 380 - 400 0.17
------------------------------------------
TM-07-007 50 - 70 0.12
------------------------------------------
70 - 90 0.22
------------------------------------------
90 - 110 0.25
------------------------------------------
110 - 130 0.10
------------------------------------------
130 - 150 0.11
------------------------------------------
In light of the new discovery, the Company is examining the data from the 2006 - 2007 field work as well as the completed drill program to design an extensive drill program to delineate the manganese zone and further test the gold/copper potential.

This news release was reviewed by Dick Addison, P. Eng., a qualified person recognized under the guidelines of NI 43-101.END

craig- yes...snatched my chips off Banker just in time LOL ->wife didn't do that well, though->scaled back into QID around 52.77, then a market sell filled at 52.07...guess it's better than having walked away and coming back to 51.34 ;)

Glad it worked out for you too Craig . . . felt like all of a sudden I was thrown back in the chair and fighting 5 Gs . . . . all while monitoring 3 computers in virtual waiting rooms for tickets I was ordering (too much to explain here)

Well, as you say in your business, every dog has his day.

Craig, fair point. I'll reserve judgement on the persona part of Vinod.

Forgot to mention with all the fireworks at the end of the day:

BMO financial is holding a mining conference this weekend in Hollywood, FL. Don Coxe (BMO) will be there. Anyone out there attending?

AMBAC announces they are not being "bailed out". It's all about saving their AAA rating... not being bailed out. We'll have a couple days to sort out the news behind this rumor.

Still a good op to pick up some SKF.
Wish I had my wits about me, I would have shorted IAI. The action shocked me enough (and was so in my favor) that I didn't even reach for my gun. Go figure.

Bill,

Tweaking the logo has paid off in a much more refined distribution of positive/negative space that compacts and clarifies its initial visual impact. Attributes and associations of the previous version still work, now with improved relative scaling of all elements making up the design--i.e. nothing stands out as being too large or too small in relation to the other parts.

One salient indication of these improvements is that one can easily read and recall the logo in just a quick glimpse--very important for billboards as traffic whizzes by, busy people glancing at video screens or magazine ads . . . .

And in answer to your comment about my being a graphic designer, yes, I've worked as graphic artist, designer and consultant for more than forty years.

LOL...yep Seamus, the dog caught the car in the final minutes.

Glad you got your chips 2nd. That's cool you and Mrs. 2nd have that family trading thing going. I bet she'll get a chance to get right next week.

My wife thinks I'm obesessed as usual. She's probably right. As my auto parts guy said the other day, "My wife is always right and she's a perfect angel. Always up in the air and harping." Uh oh...gotta go...the angel is calling...:>) I'll be back later....

Kaimu,

Thats great about MLYFF. I was gonna buy some more of it though, darnit. It was well below my cost basis but I didn't act quick enough. Oh well. Thanks for telling me about it.

Bill,

The changes to the logo are brilliant! Love it!
Cheers

quite a rocket ride in finish.

waiting for breakout upward.

This is casino, like this week; -- short term.
But long term -- make most money by sitting, not thinking.

Ditto yaba's words: "The changes to the logo are brilliant!"

craig- her market order was placed when the bid/ask for QID was at 52.61...filled at 52.06-that's how fast the market spiked...

OldGoat- watched you take a positions in SSO at 68/67.63 around 130p, second-guess yourself around 230p, false lift-off at 256p, momentarily spike down at 256p, lift-off and launch at 330p, out at 70+...beautiful...bought on weakness and hung in there->cheers (home early and uncorking a bottle ;)...

re vinod- i sense nothing amiss in his posts, and would further wager that he will be calling trades ahead of us within a few months...this is a global platform, right..

Anyone buy Microsoft? 25/23/17 RSI today. MACD looks to be flipping over.

Plus they launch SQL 2008/Visual Studio 2008/Windows 2008 starting next week.

Glad I didn't pick it up yet.

A couple of pension funds are suing Yahoo over the deal rejection.

http://tinyurl.com/2ftoyx

for anyone caught on the wrong side of today's spike (and this would include my better half)- try to not miss the flip side of the situation->buying opportunities abound AH->you may wish, just for the hell of it, to pick up a few battered shares of your favorite ultra-shorts->my perspective would be a) you avoided selling into the panic (congrats), b) if it's never smart to sell into a panic, then buying/adding right now is not the worst move you could make, and c) it allows you to deflect frustration in a positive way...you don't need to pick up a lot (aware that the rally could continue on monday)...JMO...

Hey 2nd, how about this: bought 2 puts on MBI at 3:31PM. I deserve the Darwinian award of the day.

On the plus side, sold SKF at 116.39 at 3:15PM.

Bottom line: probably $zero.

Does anyone actually believe that the market goes up like a rocket because a clown type says something on TV? Give us a break. Somebody ought to investigate this. I know, not going to happen.

"""
Bloomberg tracks the consensus price forecasts of commodity analysts . . . .
While only two commodities are down over the past year, only two are expected to be higher than they are now by the end of 2008. The two commodities that are up the most over the past year are expected to go down the most going forward. Oil is expected to decline 19% to $80/barrel, and Gold is expected to decline 15% to $807/ounce.
"""

http://tinyurl.com/2u2y4w

From a contrarian perspective, who dominates, the gold bugs or the commodity analyst consensus?

SiO2- in that case, second glass of bordeaux in your honor ;)

Genentech up 10% AH on FDA approval of Avastin for breast cancer (in addition to existing uses for lung and colon cancer)...

http://tinyurl.com/3c2rj8

I have no interest to post
I did not new that my posting will have effect on other people’s decision
I did post when I get time not at the time trade was done
I am not a day trader and I have full time job
Whenever I get time on my job I read this site and my watch list
I do have about 10 open orders to buy stock at particular pries and good still cancel
I do adjust price on them
I enjoy reading and studying this site and having fun
You will not see any post from me again

Thanks

come on, vinod-

Buy 200 Shares of QLD
Order Number:B22NMKBT Details Filled at $68.50

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 22, 2008 12:56 PM

OEYCC-CALL (OEY) S & P 100 INDEX MAR 615 (100 SHS)
Status Filled at $15.20 only one contract

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 22, 2008 1:00 PM

QLD out @70
OEYCC @18.00

Posted by: vinod [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 22, 2008 3:44 PM

IMO, that says it all...hope you change your mind...

2nd Ave: Wow there...like to read your opinion..but seriously disagree with your post....and the habits traders might want to cultivate.

if a trader believes in the following rules:
1) We Trade Prices
2) Anything can happen
3) Protect your capital

Then selling into a panic or a LARGE VOLUME FAST reversal of PRICES is the SMART thing to do, that is ..IF the STOPS didnt kick in first. That is assuming stops were deployed.

Or is a trader's personal mental bias at work here? IF we were long and the market PLUNGED, is it prudent to sell and preserve capital or justify that the MARKET IS WRONG and hang on to a losing position, and THEN ADD TO IT?

Deflect frustration by buying more ULTRAShORT shares? C'mon...the bailout may not happen, or it may..that is truly GAMBLING on an outcome OUTSIDE of our control. Do you really think that is a healthy TRADING habit?

IF someone was to ACT out of alleviating frustration...by buying more beaten down shares of SKF..because they just saw a days gains wiped out in 30 minutes, and SKF has a $7 range, and a one day up one day down behavior in the last 8 days, and a RISING RSI (2).. I hope they think twice and really use stops and admit that they truly dont know what is going to happen monday morning and they are GAMBLING with their AFTER TAX SAVINGS.

OR they can wait till the bailout fails and the market may plunge anyway and they can use the SKF , as volatile as it is. I dont recall a post here where an actual stop was posted, just entry prices...that might be a useful habit, for those that want to be DISCIPLINED TRADERS.

Becareful out there when you think you are trading the markets, when you are really trading your beliefs about the market...a huge world of difference as you can tell from the posts today.

If you are a day trader, beware when you stubbornly refuse to act based on what you see, based on live market data..that is the REALITY. You beliefs , though true, are not relevant IN THE MOMENT when TRADING PRICES.

Especially on large volume and price movements across all sectors, stocks and indices.

Having said all that, :) I do believe the financial markets are not structurally sound, and issues abound...but neither gambling with overnight holdings nor looking at weekly charts helps me protect and grow capital, in this environment.

I think folks will be interested in this quote I ran across about the Plunge Protection Team [from Wall Street Examiner, http://tinyurl.com/37925d ]:
"""
George Stephanopoulos (top advisor to President Clinton) as saying the following on ABC’s “Good Morning America” on September 17, 2001:
" Well, what I just want to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets. You reported just a while ago that the Fed has lowered the overnight interest rates, will put about $80 billion into the market. In addition, the SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has relaxed the rules for companies on whether or not they can buy back their stock in case they start to fall.

"And dozens of companies, including big companies like Intel and Cisco have announced that they would buy back their stock if necessary. Third, there will be some trading curbs in effect today. If the market drops by about 1,100 points, they will probably suspend trading for a while. And perhaps most important, there’s been – the Fed in 1989 created what is called a plunge protection team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges, and there – they have been meeting informally so far, and they have kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem."

Source: Transcript of ABC News “Good Morning America”. “Newscast: SEC relaxing rules to help stock exchanges; Banks agreeing to help if market gets in trouble.” September 17, 2001.
"""

Over the past couple weeks I've had good success in this very volatile market of adjusting my indicators to short term trading (ie: RSI3,RSI5,RSI7 & MAM3, MAM7 & MAM11) and going long/short holding till the indicators go from 30 to 70 (or vice versa). Today I couldn't watch the market as much as I'd like, and closed out my shorts, one of them before it triggered a close. That one stock turned out to be DNA (Genentech), that as 2nd_ave mentioned, rocketed up 10% after it started trading after the halt. Definitely in the category of "better to be lucky than smart"!

Good post EEMTrader. Trade what you see, not what you think. Price action overrides everything else. Market is an ocean, don't swim against the current. Find the current you can read, jump in; see if it goes in your direction, let it carry you if it does; get out if it doesn't before it carries you too far away from your target destination. To get stubborn with ocean is sure way to drown.

EEMTRADER- touche..(and in fact, i believe my wife did the right thing immediately cutting her losses on QID, but her move was not a panic sell, rather a very deliberate response to a position she had just entered->the market was so fast, it filled way below what would [under ordinary circumstances] have been a very small drop...to put things in perspective, should add that position size is paramount...but with that in mind, simply stating what i would actually be doing in this situation->i was holding QID at a basis on 52.06->if i had not sold earlier, would have stayed put the last 30 minutes, and be adding AHl, not so much because i believe the market is destined to fall, but because i believe that buying when others are selling in that manner normally works to my advantage...will the market gap up further on monday? certainly a possibility...but i am just as 'certain' it will eventually return to my basis->admittedly a gamble, but so is every other move i make...and hopefully keeping position size(s) in line with my risk tolerance keeps me in play regardless...different styles work at different times for each person->and sometimes they don't, so i try to relegate any 'confidence' i have to its proper place via restrictions on capital allocation...btw, congrats on your entries and exits today...

rom: "Bill Cara"

Hello Vinod,

for its state sponsored terrorism again
I trust you are a real person. As you know there are members of the Cara community asking if I would track you down to see what the story is. I figure that's personal, so I intend to maintain privacy.

However, I do want to know how come you can write about foreign events, as follows with your entry to BBC News, without a hint of difficulty with the English language, something however you try to make apparent in my blog or whatever reason.

"The Commonwealth is very important to maintain peace and democracy among member countries. They should take action against Pakistan st India."

Call me curious.

Best regards,

/Bill
I am surprise, I do not know what is this
If anyone know please let me know

..."but i am just as 'certain' it will eventually return to my basis"...

Hey, last time I heard that was from a guy who bought QCOM at 700!

Just pulling your chain, 2nd_ave, I believe you are correct, and even if not - stop loss will take care of that. All is well while one trades at what Jesse (I think) called "sleep well level" and controls risk

Vadym- the problem with the QCOM buyer was he wasn't buying into the selling frenzies...if he had, would undoubtedly have sold at a profit, then continued to stair-step down->(selling) one-step up and (buying) two steps down- now i sound like springsteen...well, we all have different styles- i know where EEMTRADER's coming from, and he probably knows where i'm coming from- he's just looking out for everyone (which really is the right thing to do)...

I left the office at 3:15 today LOL! Missed the excitement, which is all for the better as I don't like rollercoasters.

What sticks out to me is that the IWM/Russel 2000 still closed down. That index is probably the hardest to manipulate. I am leaning more towards trading only the IWM, as the support and resistance are so clear and reliable.

MFN has worked out for me - up 8.5% in two days. Buying oversold stocks on strong support in a confirmed uptrend is pretty good bet.

re: QCOM buyer. Sure.. he was buying into BUYING frenzy :) Then "it's not a loss untill you sell" mentality kicked in... you know the rest of the story

Vadym- LOL...'it's not cancer until you see a doctor,' 'it's not a summons until you open the envelope,' 'it's not your kid doing drugs until you see him lighting up'...denial is entirely predictable...as is crowd behavior and market psychology...which is exactly how/why the same patterns crop up, how/why the market is manipulated, why we study charts, and why i can't tell the difference between trading and table games (well, not quite)...

it's official- '07 really was a great year for film:

http://tinyurl.com/2m7tkn

i don't think anyone would be disappointed with any of the titles listed...

Wavesmash RE: MSFT.

I bought 100 shares at 27.66 but my daily was showing a high 30's daily RSI and 1 wk/1 mo in the 50's. I should probably point out that I already am up on MSFT so I felt a degree of safety and would have bought another 100 if it would have gone to 27.20 again.

Regarding SKF at the close: I was trading UYG in the final 15 mins of the session and then flipped my trade at the close, selling UYG and buying SKF which continued down below my buy point. I know many here wouldn't attempt this but I see nothing wrong with taking a small position counter to extreme emotional moves based on TV rumors. I still believe Meredith Whitney is correct about the financials and that C will have to cut their dividend again, and that the downgrade of the Broker Dealers today is based on a correct analysis of their earnings and financial predicament. Whitney's previous call was correct and she says there is 10-15% more downside so the trade is not based on an unknown.

I agree that price action is reality, but in this case the price action was UP which would mean the correct thing to do is to sell longs into the extreme strength, which is also a short signal to those so inclined. So I sold UYG into strength and took a short position (SKF).
I also put in an AH stink bid on SKF that didn't fill.
I don't think that is trading on an unknown or against reality. Clearly the extreme move was unreal and caught everyone by surprise...except those that precipitated it.

As such I agree with 2nd's idea of adding to the short position, but I might not have used the word frustration but perhaps sentiment instead.
I think Mrs. 2nd's only error was being a bit early. If her position was small enough she could do a number of things....sell a position turning against her or, seeing the up move was unreal, add to her position at a lower basis AH or Premkt on Monday AM. Since I'm not privy to the position I'm also not in a position to...UH, 2nd guess...:>) lol.

Bill RE: Vinod. I was not so much asking for anything on your part but knew if this concerned you that you had the option and ability to take any darned action you wanted to.

You have my total and complete support in whatever you decide. While I read every post here it doesn't mean I have act on them. That is my responsibility. If Vinod is genuine he will not be offended and will continue to post and participate in the community.
I hope that is the case.

craig- 2nd-guessing 2nd..yeah, i do it myself..;)

my point about deflecting frustration was basically a psychological counter-move, if you will...trading for me is all psychology->counter arguments (you need to seriously consider all sides), counter-trend moves, counter-intuitive positioning...and if i were to take an (unexpected) hit, i just think taking the opposite stance (even if momentarily and with a small position)->ie, by treating the drop advantageously as a buying opportunity (no denial at work here, as it in fact is a buying opportunity IMO) would greatly improve my mental edge through the weekend and into monday's open...the edge may be subtle, but i can guarantee that for me at least, it would be a very real edge...

2nd, You know I agree my friend. We might use different semantics, but the idea is the same.
I don't see any difference between the QID position in question and my SKF buy. They are both shorting into extreme strength which I'm sure we would both attempt.

Does anyone believe the bear is dead on the AMBAC news? If not then it is only a matter of time before it comes to us.

let me put it this way...if you bluff your way to a winning hand, does that lessen or negate the win in any way...i apologize if this is getting a little too 'deep,' as we used to say in college (and into our 2nd bottle, maybe that's all it is), but if trading is a mental game, then 'bluffing' yourself into a winning attitude can make all the difference on monday...trading is not just about making the right moves, it's also being able to make them, and make them with the right attitude...the right 'tude can translate into some split second decisions that can spell +/-, not unlike taking that turn at high speed->any doubt and the game's over...

(maybe a) better example- steelers unfairly penalized 10 yards with 5 yards to goal (sometime in the 70s, i can still see the play in my mind)...franco harris asks for the ball on 4th down and takes it in for a TD...would they have made a TD without the 10 yard penalty? maybe/maybe not...point is they turned the loss (and an unfair one at that, not unlike any losses at today's close) into better odds of a win...

make that a 'temporary' loss/setback into better odds of a win...

LOL! We all use whatever edge or attitude to maintain a winning psychology. Whether it's bluff or based on information which contributes to what one might call bluff or edge, the result is the same. I like to combine this attitude with information that strengthens and increases the odds of my winning....ie, gives me the edge.

As a competitor I have developed a degree of killer instinct, mental focus...edge if you will, that put me at the top of my game in other aspects of my life like cattle and sheepdog trialing. If you walk to the post in doubt or ill prepared you may as well call it a day. I use the same attitude and focus to win in this game as well. I'm not reading sheep and using my mental connection with a top dog, but I'm reading the market all the same and using it to my advantage.

maromatics et al

thanks for the lucid and accurate reads on gold- and to bill for the RSI method to help on gold stocks (GFI). keep the comments active please!

as i trade in uk also, you might be interested in one gold stock which is exempt from 0.5% stamp duty. none other than randgold resources - RRS in london and GOLD on nyse. the bid/offer is larger than normal but better than paying 11p on a 2250p stock
the stamp tax is a pain for traders and hence the rise of CFDs which are however a form of derivative which may not have been stress- tested to the extreme levels we may see ahead.

if anyone knows of other SDRT (stamp tax) exempt stocks on the london market and of interest to caraistas, please let me know.

bill
you mentioned cara 100 international stocks from the far east.
one candidate would be PLDT (trading on nyse as PHI and TEL in manila. monopoly fixed line turned into aggressive wireless carrier (smart is the brand name )competing head on with globe.

good management, good dislcosure and good proxy for the philippine market which is small but now has a more respectable looking currency.
the economy has always been the sick tiger cub compared to its neighbours but its time will come.
as someone said, 500 years in a convent plus 50 years in hollywood is a heady mixture for any society !

BTW, I just watched househunters about a guy buying a place in the Bahamas.

I better develop the killer instinct and win a lot if I'm going to make it to a tropical Island instead of the temperate rainforest Island I'm on now.

Just wanted to say I'm new here, but a genuine investor trying to make good. 3 years 3/4 time investor.

Long career (30 yrs) in tech decimated by losses to China. Decimated in the Midwest and fled to the last of the prosperous South, USA. Looking to bail to Asia in the long haul. US is toast for the rest of my lifetime. IMHO.

Lived many years in FL and know the Bahamas well. Have many nice hand made baskets as we bought to provide food. Anything that moved on that island chain was eaten. Snorkled off Andros whilst watching military tests. Base was KSC.

Point is give the new guy a shot, until it is obvious the facts don't make sense.

In the game for the serious gain as I develop my energy ideas that need patent apps; very expensive. I gotta get the cash somewhere. I'm not here to make 5% above inflation, but to kick the market's arse. (Whatever you think "inflation" is.)

I will be very interested in obtaining a safe way to hold personal bars and allocated storage in a private bank in Switzerland.

I understand there is a free trade zone accessible from the airports. Would like more info. That zone vs std banks?

I also understand the Perth Mint in Australia, but the sales pitch is for unallocated (pooled) funds. Both allocated an un.

I want allocated assets offshore, and a box to put my own metal in that the USG cannot attach.
And cannot report.

It seems the IRS has no clue when it comes to
metals exchange. Yet.

Kaimu/Bill/All:

I've never heard this mentioned on this blog:
Central Fund of Canada (CEF)

On initial inspection it seems to me that CEF is more transparent and their prospectus is far less confusing then GLD and SLV. I know the safest bet is physical gold, but my question is this safer than GLD, SLV? I'd love to hear anyone's take on this...

Here's the info on Yahoo:

Central Fund of Canada Limited, an investment holding company, invests in gold and silver bullion primarily in bar form. As of October 31, 2005, the company's gold holdings were 614,242 fine oz. of physical bullion and 5,349 fine oz. of gold bullion certificates; and silver holdings were 30,728,142 oz. of physical bullion and 245,572 oz. of silver bullion certificates. Central Fund of Canada was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

This market will take any glimmer of positive news and run with it. I got out of SKF and into SSO unfortunately a little late, and lost a good chunk of change but began to mitigate it.

I expect, barring any other news, and with oil probably coming back down, Monday will be a big up day.

Then flag upside breakout, then, unless there are more writedowns next week or the plan to save the monolines comes out flawed, (admittedly big assumptions) we head back up to 12,800 or 13,100. I think (correct me if I'm wrong) there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to buy.

Reminiscent, (though without the capitulation aspect of) last August's whispers of an emergency rate cut @ 3:30 PM. Coincidentally, the same thing happened, I got burned going short. It's just that last time I had just started actively trading and I stayed short for too long over the coming days.

"Gotta be ready every day to bite the ass off a bear..." And lighting reflexes help, as EEMTrader suggested. Mine aren't fast enough. Yet...

Happy Saturday from a beatiful Pacific Nothwest Morning. Sun's up, birds singing, coffee's on...

Colin Twiggs Saturday report:
"The market rallied late Friday on rumor that a consortium of banks, including Citigroup and UBS, are close to announcing a bailout of Ambac —in order to save its AAA credit rating. The estimated $3 billion investment is unlikely to save the bond insurer from losses on $566 billion of debt, but will postpone the inevitable write-downs that the banks face." (Bloomberg)

Dow Jones Industrial Average
"The Dow continues in a triangle formation between 12000 and 12800. Expect a continuation of the down-trend with a medium-term target of 12000-(12800-12000)=11200. Twiggs Money Flow signals short-term accumulation but long-term selling pressure."

Bill,
I thought you would be interested in some historical perspective of relative inflation.

I have shown charts of the PPI relative to CPI and how a typical contraction of 2/3 occurs in the overall Stock Market P/E.

Also the earnings yield-to-Bond yield ratio climbs, favoring bonds to equities.
See "Honey I(nflation) shrunk the P/E"

Bill,
Thank you for the Saturday report.

I'm happy to read you are taking time to really enjoy yourself today.

Enjoy!

Hi Bill, re logo

Yes the latest from Friday is more balanced and symmetrical. I like the the larger text size for "Trading Advisors" and with the tighter white background box I don't get the round peg / square hole thing coming to mind. However I think the weight of the "C" needs to be a little heavier, or the weight of the "ARA" a little lighter. At first glance I see ARA , then in the secondary I see the whole "Cara Trading Advisors" coming together. My overall impression is balanced, stable/static and moderately bold.

Now the original multicoloured one, would be the best on a "T shirt" as Craig said, I found it boldest and most aggressive,

Now I also liked the previous one with dark blue green, up thru light blue, but would change the text as per the last one. It was pleasant, not too aggressive, kind of pastel laid back, balanced and stable with the dense bold on the bottom, light on top. I also found it had rotational movement, (the others are static), the mind is drawn clockwise from the deep blue green sea, into the lighter shore, then sunrise, then lightening skies. A bit like a journey with a successful end, not unlike trading / investing.

As far as "Trading" I have mixed feelings, but I also think "Investment" is outdated and implies the old by and hold. I would stick with trading as long as it doesn't come across as aggressive daytrading.

At this point you brainstorm, everyone will have different ideas and impressions, just collect them all and go with what you feel comfortable with. You can always modify it later as every company does over time. In the end I believe the business will be overflowing from your personal reputation and word of mouth, not from a catchy logo. Note these comments are only my first impressions / opinions and subject to change without notice.

Thanks for the Sat wrap up, looking forward to the WIR as usual.

Friday action;
Agree its just getting crazy what these TV & internet news services can get away with, they seem to have no liability. They get the ball rolling, a few daytraders push it a bit more, then I gotta believe the big volume is coming in when the algo programs pick it up and then the avalanche really gets going. In the past I've written to the WSJ, Barrons etc etc about misleading internet press releases, very occasionally I'll get a response, usually the article just disappears from the net, but the change it had on that stock doesn't disappear !! I guess we need to start copying the regulators on all of these complaints in the US and Canada.

onelineaces

Go to the archives and search CEF you will find many comments.

Here's one I posted last August. CEF closed Friday at $13.28.

FYI

Anyone owning Central Fund of Canada CEF....
currently trading at $9.07, a premium of slightly under 5% which is below average of
8-10%.

This fund is a convenient way to own a 50/50 mix of gold and silver bullion.

Chart of the Day... Dow dividide by Gold 1998-2008
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20080222.htm?T

Chart of the Day... Dow divided by Gold 1998-2008
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20080222.htm?T

PNP and log charts -

Isn't PNP like an over-diversified mutual fund, guaranteeing performance no better than the sector average? (actually, i think they change over time, unlike the PM junior sector: more or less uranium, energy, etc.)

A trader friend NEVER uses log charts, saying "that's not how I get paid." He wants to see risk and reward dollar for dollar !

To all,
Can anyone please do a walk through on how to report options transactions in Turbo Tax(TT) 2007 or point me to some online resources that address that? Last year I started to trade options through Scottrade. However the options transaction were not listed on my 1099-B. I flick through TT help file but couldn't reach a decisive conclusion on how and where to report them(Schedule D as Capital Asset Gain/Loss?). But I'm pretty sure IRS won't give me a free ride, least to say!

TIA

8heir

Bill- re the logo: for me, the decision was instantaneous-> the new one wins, hands down...whereas deciding between the different versions of the old one was a struggle, as none of them really appealed to me...JMO...

bill- you asked for rationale

the new logo evokes associations with (fluid) motion, yin/yang, symmetry, a calm and orderly kineticism...projects a (pleasant) image of being one with the markets...it's you, man ;)

the older design->cannot get away from thinking of the spokes of a wagon, definitely not the way to traverse today's fast global markets...

again, JMO...

Bill re LOGO version 4

OK you asked, but when my wife asks I never know when she really wants an answer and when she doesn't.

This is my first impression in the order that they hit me, BOLD, soft / flowing and analytical.

The CARA is bold, maybe a little overpowering, I would try slightly smaller and maybe in medium blue. I also like "Trading Advisors" in the lighter grey as version 3 above.

The soft pastel brush strokes show movement flexibility and symmetry. They form an inner square and the points of an outer flexible square slightly offset in rotation, I like it. Although one question on the interweave symmetry, clockwise green tail under blue, then blue tail under gold, then gold tail under yellow, but then yellow tail is over, not under green. Something just looked funny and took me a couple of minutes to figure out what it was, not sure if that was planned.

The gridpaper watermark in the background shows analysis.

Overall I think this one has alot of possibilities, you're getting there. But it also has challenges mostly with the watermark, it works well on a business card which has boundaries, but say on stationary with the logo at the top, where does the gridpaper stop?

These are difficult decisions with added pressure of PDAC and getting to the printers, good thing is they don't have to be permanent.

Ah, 2nd

You beat me to it, but seems we're seeing it in a similar way.

re quasi's point about boundaries, you could use either a dark background, or enclose the entire logo inside a rectangular border...

quasi- it's good to have two simultaneous (and thus unbiased) opinions...

Bill re logo version 4

Thinking a little more and maybe that symmetry problem was planned, as thats what we're always looking for, the piece of the puzzle that doesn't fit, the piece that others miss.

IMHO

Dear Bill,

My fiance and I both prefer the new logo, with the fluid brushstrokes. Is there an Asian influence from the designer's part? Maybe a friend of your friend Michael Wong? Just free associating... may be forward thinking incorporating Eastern aesthetics with current trends.

My fiance suggests possibly making the font colour of "Cara" in dark green instead of black ("the colour of money" according to her, and better match with the other colours).

Blessings.

Bill,
I still like the previous one the best. I like the gold bar on the end and the spokes getting darker as it moves toward the right. The center has a lot of space within and around the C which is much like the space you create within your inner circle for others to enter. The smaller "ara" gives a strong direction forward.
In conclusion with physical gold as the backbone whether light trading or dark (more frequent trading) in an up market or in a down market the trading system works! I still think it is the most brilliant. Cheers

Logo, I prefer the new one. It connotes movement. The images it evokes are the atom, sails and finally spinner dolphins. Since your methodology is based on price movement in relation to RSI, it fits.

The first logo is much more mechanical in its look and feel you are an artist in the field of finance which the second most translates.

Simply stated, it’s dynamic.

Addendum and revision:

Simply stated, it’s dynamic like you are Bill.

To all,
Last night I was watching a PBS special with Bill Moyers on Congressional/Seante earmarks.

It made me so mad...I couldn't believe what I was seeing. 535 (or close) members of Congress and only 13, you read that right THIRTEEN didin't use earmarks or take campaign contributions from those the earmarks benefit. In Oregon there were earmarks for a T-shirt company to sell polyester (read flammable) T-shirts to the Army and Marines, who didn't even want them as they were and are flammable. They got around that by calling them fleeces or "undergarments...which ended up killing a marine. In my state we had Senator Patty Murray, who apparently I was duped into voting for, getting campaign contributions from a Redmond WA company for electronic displays for military helmets that failed military tests and STILL were purchased because of Senator Murray's earmarks. One of the bigger earmark gainers was also from my state, Rep. Norm Dicks.
One of the Murray earmarks was from a boat company in Edmonds Washington that contributed to her campaign which netted them a Navy contract for a "Homeland Security" boat for the coast Guard they didn't want. Yuo are reading it right. The Navy never took delivery of the boat, they donated it to the University of Washington who ended up selling it to a San Francisco Sherriff Dept for $1.00.

Since there are only 13 that didn't take earmarks or campaign contributions from companies in exchange for earmarks, Americans here may want to find out if your congress person or Senators are on the take and giving their tax dollars to companies to get elected, sometimes for products the intended governmental recipient doesn't want or can't use. While it further enslaves their children in more and more debt....

The Seattle Times wanted to find out about these practices and because these theives are very good at hiding their crimes, it took thousands of hours to compile a database linking earmarks, contracts and campaign contributions. The bills themselves containing the earmarks were in regular size type but the earmarks had to be read with a magnifying glass (seriously) then they had to be interpreted as they were in governmental code. So they hired a Senatorial staffer who was an expert on passing earmarks to interpret what they were. Then they tied it all together with the campaign contributions from all these companies to each congressional or senatorial campaign.

Want to find out if your representatives are on the take? Chances are overwhelming that they are unless you are represented by Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona who wanted a seat on the appropriations committee but was rejected by the GOP because he wants to end earmarks. Remember, I'm a (wait, WAS) a lifelong Democrat, so I have no axe to grind. Check out your local crook here: http://tinyurl.com/2ul8gq

You will note, Hillary Clinton is on the top ten list, although personal earmarks she is pathetic, but together with other Senators she is a top ten pig at the trough.

I will note that McCain is in bed with lobbyists, figuratively of course) and Obama employs no lobbyists and is running to remove them. I haven't looked to see if he took contributions for earmarks, but you can find out in the database at the site above.

Once again, Kaimu is right. Don't you hate that? LOL! Thanks Kaimu.

Bill,
I like the new 'sails', agree with Telestars comments...
TimG

Bill,
I like the new one. More fluid, forming a globe in motion (International) with the muted earthy colors supporting it. They also feel rich, gold, green, blue represent wealth and the source of wealth, earth, water, sun, sky.

The grid isn't necessary and as others mentioned may be limiting on letterhead, cards, shirts, etc.

On first glance it is balanced and dynamic. My eye isn't distracted or drawn by any element over another, but then the movement comes through which is pleasing.

Very nice.

My wife says the second one "dances".

also weighing in with cara 'trading advisors'/'trading advisory'/'trading partners'/'trading group'/'trading fund'/ vs 'the cara group'/'the cara fund' vs 'cara'...

craig- 'studio cara'...

2nd

Is that like in "Cara dancing with prices studio"

dancing with the wolves LOL

ALOHA !!

Bill ... My wife and I like the second logo best. The first one is one dimensional and kind of flat while the second is multi-dimensional with depth, like the global markets are.

Craig ... The corruption is just amazing. It used to be that we laughed at the corruption in these banana republics ... Washington DC is 100% CHIQUITA!!! Somehow we have bought into the idea that debt is wealth!

Another vote for the second logo, minus the grid. However I think the font/style of "CARA" is harsh/incompatible compared to the logo, so I suggest using an italics style, "Cara" and also for "Trading Advisors"

bill: 2nd Logo..Energy + Fxeibility( ( Atom symbol?) , strength/credibility ( Solid colors & Letters)

Fatty Arbuckle: re: your morning post...and reflexes. Sometimes it pays to watch intermarket relationships..check out when the Ten year yield broke out of its tradig range on Friday, while stocks didnt..then the move up together after the announcement. Even big banks have to raise cash somehow....I learned that here 2 years ago when bill gave commentary on the markets during the day. So just sharing what may be old information...still got to wait for the markets to jump before you press the button though.

Treasuries act funky around bank settlement dates..I pay attention when the $SPX is about to plunge into the abyss or up against a ceiling..yields provide one piece of information.

Good luck to you..easy on those leveraged shorts..or longs..:)

The logo looks good and all, but I still like the name "Cara Heavy Industries" That's just me.

I just got done with a heavy fondling session in my sock drawer. All that 11, 12, $13 dollar silver sure is nice to play with. Nothing like a kilo sized slab of pristine Perth Mint silvery lunar bunny to warm you up. I heartily endorse putting aside real, actual metal to everyone. Some guys I know have platinum bullion. THAT would feel nice to throw around these days, even behind a mm of plastic.

ALOHA !!

MikeNYC ... Sorry to disturb your metallic romance in the sock drawer! Keep goin'!!! What about those shiny and slippery smooth Perth Mint kilo gold bars? Gleaming in your eyes and whispering in your ear ... "I'll satisfy you forever!" OH YEAH-H-H-H ... Who's you Daddy? HA !!!

What do the guys that own GLD and SLV get to fondle? A mouse? HA !!! Won't be too long and it'll be an IOU from a bankrupt COMEX!

Bill: I much prefer your second logo. It appears much less "harsh" than the first. But you must realize I failed art appreciation at every stage of my life.

Free associations: first -- invokes thoughts of internationalism, perhaps a Chinese character inviting "good trading"; second -- dolphins recreating; third -- Nike "swooshes" procreating.

Time to associate myself with bed.

Bill, Kaimu, Online Aces

Online Aces brought up the CEF gold and silver bullion fund (which is, thankfully, not leveraged). I trade CEF occasionally, but there is another bullion fund that is specific to gold that I trade more frequently. The ticker symbol is GTU.

There is often a small a lag between $GOLD (or GLD) and GTU. GTU is sometimes slow to respond to the day to day ups and downs of gold. This is bad if you are salivating for instant gratification, but it is a blessing if you have some patience.

Since GTU often lags, one can usually get a small discount relative to the spot market. Additionally, it is a bit less volatile than GLD and $GOLD.

I think the last note I read about GTU is that it was holding some 95% of assets in real gold bullion. GLD has less than 10% of assets in real metal.

Online Aces

Your question was, is CEF a better vehicle for trading gold than GLD? Yes, it is better, by far ... but, it's not as good as having gold coins and bars stored safely and securely within arm's reach. If you don't live in Canada, it would be a long trip to go and get your gold. However, you can bet your bullion is there in the vault with CEF and GTU. They aren't going to mail it to you, that is for sure. However, you can certainly go and claim it and carry it home. It's been counted and audited and it's got your name on it.

It appears some of us are up late having a good time. Me too!

I'm killing off the last of a bottle of Cruzan estate bottled Rum with some slightly flat coke listening to my favorite musician...who happens to be a Canadian from Toronto, Bruce Cockburn.
Some of the Canadians may know his work...he fits the blog like a glove.

Kaimu, I can't help but share what I just heard with you and the list...a live recording written in 1985 but as timely as ever, as the truth always is.

For my Canadian friends I'll list the song as you might see it at home but the words in English so we all can understand. The brutal truth from a Juno award winner.
This used to be what we/they did to other nations, now they are doing it to US.

Appelon Ca La Democratie
Call it Democracy
by Bruce Cockburn, written Nov. 1985

Padded with power here they come
international loan sharks backed by the guns
of market hungry military profiteers
whose word is a swamp and whose brow is smeared
with the blood of the poor

Who rob life of its quality
who render rage a necessity
by turning countries into labour camps
modern slavers in drag as champions of freedom

Sinister cynical instrument
who makes the gun into a sacrament --
the only response to the deification
of tyranny by so-called "developed" nations'
idolatry of ideology

North south east west
kill the best and buy the rest
it's just spend a buck to make a buck
you don't really give a flying fuck
about the people in misery

IMF dirty MF
takes away everything it can get
always making certain that there's one thing left
keep them on the hook with insupportable debt

See the paid-off local bottom feeders
passing themselves off as leaders
kiss the ladies shake hands with the fellows
open for business like a cheap bordello

And they call it democracy
and they call it democracy
and they call it democracy
and they call it democracy

See the loaded eyes of the children too
trying to make the best of it the way kids do
one day you're going to rise from your habitual feast
to find yourself staring down the throat of the beast
they call the revolution

IMF dirty MF
takes away everything it can get
always making certain that there's one thing left
keep them on the hook with insupportable debt.

Sound familiar?

Patty Murray...are you listening? You sell out...
Nevermind, I'm going to check out my sock drawer...full of $13 silver and $680 gold....
Have fun everyone!

Morning all.

Craig, I just tuned www.last.fm to Bruce Cockburn. I like what I hear so far.

I just finished watching a program from the BBC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/broadband/tx/decisions/tips/
It talks about how people make decisions. It describes very accurately what just happened to me a week or so ago. Emotionally if you feel like you've lost something you are more likely to act risky to try to gain it back. This is compared to if you don't feel a loss, but only look at the potential gain. The experiment works like this: You're given $20 and asked if you want to walk away and keep your $20, or risk it on a 50/50 gamble for $50. The other situation is that you are given $50, but a moment later $30 is taken back from you and you are told you could win it back on the 50/50 gamble. Many more people gambled rather than walked away on the second situation compared to the first.

I think it's AA's 5th step to tell those close to you exactly what happened so that you never repeat it. In the current volatility most would say it could be foolish(in the short term) to be fully invested, and walk away for a few days. Well, I was almost fully invested in options that were to expire in 2 weeks, and I had work come up that took me totally away from the markets for 4 trading days. I had a straddle on the dow that would profit if the dow moved below 11700 or above 13000. That was about $7000 of the $10000 in my portfolio. My reasoning was that we had a drop from December to Jan, and looking at the past 6 months the bounces only lasted 1-2.5 weeks. Our bounce had lasted 2 weeks, and I had 2 weeks to go. Well, it failed. I got back after the work project was done and saw my account at $5000. I panicked. I sold everything, and moved it to the next month, mostly puts but with some calls. The market moved up, I sold the puts bought calls, the dow moved down, I sold the calls bought puts. Then I sold everything and walked away with only $1500 left in the account. I've taken a week off to clear my head and calm my emotions.

The scariest part for me is what if that wasn't my education account. What if this was 20-40 years from now and that was part of my retirement? I have much more to learn, and more discipline to drill.

-Quentusrex

Bill,

I like the second logo. The one that looks atomic. It seems more calming, but educated and technical. I'd be interested to see a few variations of that one.

Everyone,

I know I asked before, but I didn't see any responses. Does anyone else here hunt?

Due to some of the Texan redistricting games some students got creative.

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=718

"Texas Republicans have worked overtime to make it harder for key Democratic voting groups to vote and be represented fairly. The redistricting games they’ve played are infamous. And for the Prairie View A&M University precincts, they put the early-polling place more than seven miles from the school.

So what did the students in this video do? They shut down the highway as they marched seven miles to cast their votes on the first day of early voting."

I was listening to Tim Wood and and Frank Barbera on FSO yesterday. Tim said something that really resonated with me, and I wanted to share:

# 2008 a critical, critical juncture for determining if the upcoming cycle will be inflationary or deflationary (Wood):

* USD is moving into an opportunity to put in an important low.
* Commodities putting into an opportunity for an important top
* Depending how resolved will depend on whether we go into an inflationary vs. deflationary.

----------------------------

I'd encourage you to listen to the broadcast, which you can find here: http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

I lifted a few things from it and posted here: http://tinyurl.com/32j4qh
----------------------------
Finally, I completed a project that some of you Caraistas may find interesting--particularly those who are interested in sector strength and rotation--you can see all the tickers handily. I have all of the US-listed (sorry Canadians) ticker symbols listed by industry. It includes preferred stock.

It's in an Excel spreadsheet. If you don't have Excel, you can look on line and find an Excel browser or preview it on line: http://www.box.net/shared/39fc5izk0c

I also have a graphic on the first tab that shows the breakdowns of all of the DJ industry classifications. Anyway, I hope that you find it helpful for those of you who do your own research.

Quentusrex: It took alot of courage to post your option situation. My retirement account is mostly cash; and I have been buying selective options--both short and long to give my account some exposure to the market. YTD, I'm up 4.5%. Given the directional volatility in the market, I've been taken my option gains early. Leaving money on the table, but I'd rather not someone else sweep the money from under the table! I've had a few losses, but I've kept them minimal.

I read Bill's blog everyday, but I don't always make it through the comments section. I'm not sure why you asked if folks hunt. I don't hunt, but I know folks who do and are generous with their bounty. I enjoy cooking wild game, but if I had to shoot and kill my own food, I'd likely only eat chicken and fish. I think that I could kill a chicken, but would not make it further up the food chain!

Leisa,

I'll explain the hunting question. Kaimu and others keep mentioning buying farm land, but I live in Seattle and I don't have that kind of cash yet. Plus both of my parents were(one still is) Army Officers, so proper training around guns was a part of life. Some of my most vivid memories of my preteen years was going deer hunting with my dad at O'dark 30 in the freezing cold mornings. I still hunt and use hunting as a source for food rather than farm land. Besides hunting is a fun way to get away from computers(since I run a computer and networking business).

Hunters being generous with their bounty is a great way to demonstrate that not all guns should be targets of gun control. I've had a few very liberal Seattleites tell me that I can keep mine if I keep sharing the Moose, Elk and Deer meat with them.

I'm trying to spur a little off topic conversation as well. :)

http://books.google.com/books?id=5d5HAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA1&dq=g.+c.+selden#PPA119,M1

I've mentioned G. C. Selden's Psychology of the Stock Market. I believe that it is a must have for all investors. It is available on line through Google's digitized books. I would encourage you to take a look. You will read this 1912 book and think that it was written yesterday.

My son enjoys hunting. While my husband does not hunt, my neighbor took him hunting. He killed his first deer at age 12. We live in a deer-rich county where hunting is a necessity to keep the population in check.

My counsel to my son was that whatever he killed he would have to clean AND eat. I think of cooking as a wonderful and ancient art of honoring the lives of animals by whose death we are nourished. Conversely, killing for the sake of killing, to me, is dishonorable and wasteful.

While not everyone as the option of buying farmland, one can cultivate some of their own produce. WE always have a garden. This year, I'm going to be more mindful of stashing more in the freezer given how expensive food is.

Re: log charts

A good example is the Platinum weekly chart in Bill's Friday wrap-up. It is a log chart that shows prices arcing up parabolically. If you change over to linear, this rise becomes a straight line upwards. It is too parabolic to see any curvature at all. I for one would not be buying platinum now.

Re: log charts

A good example is the Platinum weekly chart in Bill's Friday wrap-up. It is a log chart that shows prices arcing up parabolically. If you change over to linear, this rise becomes a straight line upwards. It is too parabolic to see any curvature at all. I for one would not be buying platinum now.

Leisa, I fully agree with the philosophy of clean and eat what you kill. My wife has come up with some amazing ways to cook the different catches I bring home, from flounder in the Puget sound(spear fishing on Scuba) or deer and such.

One thing I think some people don't realize, and that surprised me after I started paying for my own food: The average male Elk is about 700 pounds. Of that you can safely say atleast 400 pounds of that is edible and recoverable meat. Elk is leaner and has higher protein content than beef. Ground beef in Seattle is around $3 a pound, and a cheap steak is about $5 a pound(these are from the local grocery store). That's about $1200 of food per Elk, which includes the meat that donate to my local butcher to process it.

EEM, (and indirectly Bill) thanks for the add'l bond market intraday indicator suggestion @ equity support / resistance levels, it's much appreciated.

Also, thanks for your Friday 7:54PM post.

Sorry for the double post--typekey was slow and I instinctively hit the post key again.

On a different note, I've been re-reading Richard Duncan's "The Dollar Crisis." It was revised and updated in early 2005. It is an amazing book, although, like most pessimists, he was too early in his predictions. (I wonder what Freud would say about pessimism and being too early.)

He is actually more on point now than he was at the time. Among things I picked up today:

One should look at MG, total international reserves, and not national statistics such as M3.

The combination of fractional reserve banking and fiat currencies is the key to understanding the current crisis. Instead of gold backed reserves, we are dependent on foreigners buying our debt. Countries with surplus current accounts are forced to print their own currency to buy up excess $ that come in via trade. This causes an expansion of credit and inflation in their own currencies, which leads to asset bubbles, and, later on, collapsing bubbles in various asset classes and then, deflation. The only way out of this scenario for China, for example, is to raise wages. Otherwise China will go the way of Japan in the 90s.

"By flooding the world with dollar liquidity, this system has facilitated an extraordinary surge in credit creation around the world, which has permitted over-investment and a tragic misallocation of capital...Deflation has once again become a serious threat to global prosperity for the first time since the 1930's."

Perhaps the most important and timely point he makes is that monetary easing is powerless against collapsing asset bubbles. It is like pushing on a string and never works. He cites the example of Japan who followed Paul Krugman's advice to print money like there's no tomorrow. The experiment was a failure.

If you are like me, you are at least partially depending on Social Security and private pensions for retirement. Both of these are denominated in dollars. This is a disaster. The only way to have real security is to buy gold, farmland, and make money in financial markets. Realistically, all I can hope to do is stem the losses from dollar devaluation in dollar denominated accounts. I'm tempted to quit my job and pull everything out of my teacher's retirement account to buy gold. I'd probably make out better than continuing to work!

Re: gambling
I was a student in New York city in the summer of 1977. I had friends who worked on the commodities trading floor. For entertainment I used to enjoy going to Wall street and witnessing some young hustlers playing "one eyed jack" on the sidewalk.
I was always amazed to see how seemingly "intelligent" "well educated" stockbrokers and such in their power suits could lose up to $400 within 10 minutes. All because they would win so easily that first $20 and then chase it by making bigger and bigger bets.

Bill,

I like the second logo below best because if gives me a feel for a worldwide trading network, where there is no centre, as opposed to the other logo, where there is a centre.

However, the letters on this second logo below would benefit if the font was smaller, and not a "standard font" but rather a designed one which would be your trademark.

As far as image goes, it pays to have your own font, as later on your documents gain a completely new, more sophisticated, feel to them, and that sells.

Have a good one, looking forward for the WIR.

Cheers!

yaba-

Re the 'gambling' mentality: think it helps for us to acknowledge that we all engage in it to some degree, and to realize that in order to manage your money effectively, you need to make decisions (even if it's to leave things alone) and stay on top of developments on a daily basis...

is it gambling to place 'bets' on market movement each day? is it gambling to stay in cash? is buy-and-hold gambling? what about market timing? is buying on weakness/selling on strength gambling? i think the answer is yes to all...(even if you put everything you make into laddered CDs/TIPS/treasuries, you're still gambling, right-> and i think you would lose in the sense that your LT returns will seriously under-perform)...

once you acknowledge you're making bets (and surely your bets are well-informed with an array of statistical data, financial news, indicators, and chutzpah), then the real question becomes what constitutes responsible gambling (aka investing or trading), and where do you draw the line?

i joke about comparing the capital markets to casino table games, but many of the same principles apply...moderation, restraint, maturity, judgment-> that's all that stands between responsible and irresponsible behavior in any activity/endeavor, right?...gambling is 'bad,' but investing is not...'drinking' is bad, but not in moderation...i love to drive fast, but only when it's 'safe,'...a grilled rib-eye tastes great, but not every day...you get the picture...i just think we should own up to the fact that we all 'gamble' in the markets, albeit responsibly...

(as an aside, in my college days i met two highly intelligent classmates who were definitely 'into' gambling-> both, surprisingly [or not] were taking summer classes with me in intensive beginning or advanced chinese [not a language known for easy grades, and neither of them were chinese]...they claimed to be financing their education with trips to vegas or atlantic city, and i had no reason to doubt them...so what separates 'successful' gamblers from the rest of us? i don't know...]

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/02/cara-rsi-7-7-7-beaten-down-stocks.html

Shedlock's Take:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/bank-of-america-asks-congress-for-739.html

Is buying Gold for the long haul, now, really the answer to most needs? Just for purposes of discussion, and I am NOT short Gold, nor am I recommending any trade, I was looking at a chart of Gold vs Houses Priced in Gold.. The blue line on the chart is Houses priced in Gold, and if looks closely, one sees that prices have already fallen about 50% of the range from 100 to 800 and Prices are now at about possible chart support of the peaks at 1976 and 1992.
http://tinyurl.com/2ybrdh

Does any of this mean anything other than a topic for academic mumblespeak? I’m not sure, but one might consider that although for now Gold is still rising and House Prices are still falling, the first “truthful” data that comes out that House Prices are bottoming might be an excellent leading indicator that Gold Prices have crested. No causal relationship is suggested; just a coincidence relationship.

Buying Gold here for the long haul might be a good idea only so long as the “Long Haul” ends with the bottom of House Prices, and we might already be more than half way there. Just thinking in print and open to discussion.

This is the link from which the chart was obtained:
http://tinyurl.com/2a9qh7

I like the second logo better. It gives the appearance of a 3D look. The first logo is very flat and block-like old not retro.

Quentusrex:
That is a bold confession. I'd add that I have lost more and almost always reacting in just the way you describe...letting my emotions swing me the opposite way I should have reacted. Now I *try* to maintain my discipline and small position size and determine ahead of time how much I'm willing to lose before exiting a position. That point is a lot less than it used to be. And the stupid thing is most of those losses, with few exceptions, would have come back to me. Options is another thing altogether.

I'm not a hunter but do have a few firearms. Regarding gun control, I'm not opposed to registering and extensive background checks. Beyond that I think there is zero chance the Constitution would be altered or that anyone is going to have their guns seized anymore than I intend to give up my gold. There is probably a greater chance of gold seizure. I have friends that worry about this issue almost exclusively and who have no idea they are losing far more while they are preoccupied with a purposely divisive and *unsolveable* issue dreampt up by politicians to split the citizenry so they can continue perpetrating their fraud. The other dream issue is abortion. We aren't going to stop abortion and we aren't going to change the second amendment of the Constitution. The danger is in losing sight that it is the Constitution we need to defend. Hence the oath our military, politicians and President take to defend that document from all enemies, foreign and domestic. THAT is THE issue.

And here's something to consider...some of my more liberal friends think they may need guns to defend that document and their rights. Are we coming full circle?

I raise livestock and have to admit I'm not the best at slaughtering. I call a guy out who does a fine job but I do participate and the dogs move the stock to pens where it can be done quickly, without undue cruelty and stress. I do worry that wild stock comes under a lot of poaching pressure in tough times. Not long ago I was sitting in my living room very late at night and heard a shot. I went outside to see two men loading a deer into the trunk of their car. Valuing my life and the safety of my family I didn't reveal myself or confront them, but I know this happens all over Western Washington. The trouble is the time it would take for the authorities to show up. When you're in a rural area you are on your own. The further out you live the worse the problem is. At least they did it with one shot which is more than I can say for the licensed hunter that wounded the buck that ran onto/through my farm.
My wife and I are going to have a larger garden this year and like Leisa we're planning on canning and freezing more.

It's a crazy world. Sometimes I am surprised by the range of behavior humans are capable of both for the better and the worst.

That last hour Friday was priceless. I always ask the question “how can the bigs screw as many people as possible?” and whatever scenario I come up with often is played out before my very eyes. Nice job burning the shorts on Friday (at least the ones who covered) … but now will the new longs get burned next week? I have no idea but if you put a gun to my head I’d have to say “yes” … Breadth overall was about as close to breakeven as I’ve seen it in a while – the consolidation in the wedge is massive, an explosion up or down certainly feels imminent

Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

2nd,
I suspect the casinos are as afraid of the pros as the street is. The trick is in stacking the odds in our favor and cutting losses short.
They don't chase or panic. They get up from the table and live to play another day.

That seems to be the discipline successful gamblers and traders have in common.

It costs about $40 to enter a sheep dog trial and a person can win a few thousand dollars at some of the bigger events. If I think of the money I will almost certainly not be fully concentrating on my stock and my dog, and more importantly, my own self control and emotions.
Those are the days I'm donating my entry fee to someone else's purse.

craig- money management is key...if you can exercise the instincts, restraint, and judgment needed, you will win...end of story...

caution is of course called for, but i don't know that we need to preface every remark with some type of disclaimer (play responsibly, past performance does not guarantee future returns, whatever)->might as well try to have an every day conversation with footnotes...

somewhat ironic that brokerages/media intent on educating us to be 'investors, not gamblers' (read: we want a stream of deposits with no withdrawals) also regularly play up icons like soros and buffet who (at least IMO) have placed some of the biggest bets (and lost a few)...

craig- the difference, as usual, is winning->when julian robertson was betting the right way on commodities/sectors/currencies, tiger management was a hot fund and he was a widely-admired 'investor.' buffet and soros are still 'investors,' and losing bets such as buffet's early short on the Naz are generally overlooked...why are these guys where they are now? concentrated bets (aka gambling), not diversified investments...JMO...

Bill re Logo ver 4

Thinking more on one of my comments from yesterday on the interweave of the brush strokes. I played around a little to see what it would look like, see link below.

The original is a progression of spiral brush strokes from green thru to yellow, so of course the last stroke is on top of everything. There is a known beginning, a known end.and they are different.

The interweaved version is the same spiral but links the end back to the beginning, thus interweaving a complete circle. With this pattern there is no known beginning or end, where ever you start you always end up back at the same point.

I like your original, a journey from the known to the unknown.

Original version 4 and interweaved.
http://tinyurl.com/2pltag

2nd, re concentrated bets (aka gambling)

Didn't Buffet say one time "...its OK to put all your eggs in one basket, as long as you watch that basket very very closely..."

further...all in one basket...

Now that would be too risky for me, I don't have access to the knowledge and research that Buffet has, no do I have the experience and tools to hedge and protect that position against all the unknowns.

Best to trade / invest within your own toolbox and comfort zone, I gotta be able to sleep sometime.

Quasi- that's right...another observation (not often one promoted), is that amassing wealth (early) requires concentrating your bets, whereas preserving it requires diversification...

Luckily Bill has taken pains to point out the difference between traders of securities and investors. Those guys buy entire companies or substantial portions of companies at bargain basement prices providing them the margin of error...the edge, that allows them to sleep at night. Bill uses something similar to give himself (and us) an edge, to determine that point.
A look at the buy alerts and when Buffett increased his holdings in GSK is proof of this concept.

I seem to remember Buffet taking some rather large losses a couple years back on "betting" against the USD. He's making that up now but at the time the street was calling it a gamble.
Which is it? LOL!

What is the textile output of Berkshire Hathaway these days?

BTW, love the disclosure comment...conversations with footnotes...like used car salesmen telling you they can be trusted.

2nd, Quentusrex:
I wrote the above before I sent my post....
Interesting confluence of the same thinking.

Great minds? :>)

whatever we do, it's the person with the greater ability to 'read' the situation (usually the one with more experience, maturity, or just plain common sense) who does best, right...

in your example above (used car salesman), it's buyer beware...there is also courtship (dater beware), office politics, politics, etc...i think it's actually safer walking into a casino, where you pretty much know the odds are stacked against you, than into your local brokerage branch, where even the customer service people have no clue what they're running...

Yes, true, but there is a discipline to each of these as well, perhaps less known, and which requires some preparation.

Used cars: Know the actual value of what you are buying, show up with cash or pre-approved financing. Be prepared to walk away. Similar to gambling...calling a bluff.

Dates: Women...watch what men do, ignore what they say. Wait for what he does to verify character before investing...read sleeping with... Men: Take responsibility for birth control and your wallet.

Office politics: Simple. Keep your mouth shut unless you are interested in looking for another job.

Politics: Would now say it's the same as dating.
Ignore what they say, watch what they do.
Watch your wallet.

True..in the casino or brokers you know you have to be self directed, disciplined, at least as much as where there is someone actively gaming you.

For those who fail this...P.T. Barnum issued his warning some time ago: "There's a sucker born every minute".

Quentusrex: RE: Hunting:

I belong to a Field and Stream team through my church. I enjoy all types of fishing especially salmon fishing, ice fishing and fishing for walleye.

I also enjoy deer bow and arrow hunting. In fact yesterday I decided to go grab my tree stand out of the woods. It's been there for the past few months since the end of bow n arrow season. One of the hardest things I have ever to do I tell ya. I treked close to a half mile back into the woods trudging through a foot and a half of snow. I then loaded a 60 pound 5 foot tree stand on my back and walked it out. I was scared I would die of a heart attack in the woods and never be found. Next year I am buying a 4 wheel quad runner. Oh I also got my Yukon stuck in a snow drift and if it wasn't for a calvary of snow mobilers I probably might still be out there :)

I intend on learning how to turkey hunt this spring.

P.S. I believe that in Boston the police were going door to door searching for guns. This was inner city and where they thought guns were. Slipper Slope fears now.

ALOHA !!

spot ... I noticed that the chart you posted is not inflation adjusted. I believe the story would be vastly different if you adjusted the price points to include monetary inflation.

For instance here is the POG inflation adjusted:
Link: http://tinyurl.com/3xuucs

Here is the POS inflation adjusted:
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2pgbtk

Here is the DOW inflation adjusted:
Link: http://tinyurl.com/392ete

Here are historical home values from 1890 compared to 2006 with regards to inflation current home values have a long way to fall yet.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2ylzwt

Would anybody here be buying the DOW if CNBC aired the inflation adjusted chart? Imagine if the DOW inflation adjusted chart was hanging on your brokers wall! Would he in all honesty try to tell you what a great investment stocks have been over the past decade??

The more money supply(M3)grows the greater inflation widens historical gaps. I would not consider using MG until the US Dollar is no longer used to denominate commodity prices. As long as the US Dollar is still the World reserve currency M3B is my choice(not MG or M3). The following chart shows you why inflation is growing. It is because government is growing. Check out the real CPI components and tell me who is taking the biggest bite out of your standard of living?

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2ug9ex

Historically the way fiat regimes in the past have operated is that highly inflationary cycles get ever higher until they end in a depression(deflation). Yet only gold and silver holds its value through both inflation and deflation. This would be seen easily if it were not for the manipulation of gold and silver pricing by central banks via futures and physical selling. Both vehicles of manipulation depend on confidence and supply. Those are two commodities that are fast becoming ever more scarce.

Here is a quote from one of FDRs closest advisors Harry Hopkins. He was the guy who designed the New Deal and the WPA and the cheif architect of FDRs Lend Lease which was a program set up to fund the UK during the early years of WW2 even when Congress and the American people voted not to get involved in the War.

"We shall tax and tax, and spend and spend, because the people are too damn dumb"
......Harry Hopkins, chief advisor to FDR

There is the source of all our monetary and economic ills of today. Has government shrunk since FDR? Then who is to blame but us voters who keep putting the same two party aristocracy into power.

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

ALOHA !!

Craig and 2nd ... Short and simple we are being forced to gamble by a corrupt fiat monetary regime!

That little head fake/bear trap Friday got me to thinking of ways I could keep a better watch on the lemmings, I mean, the market. I decided to setup a google news page to keep tabs on things. This is very easy to do if anyone else wants to do the same thing. Go to news.google.com(you will probably have to setup a google account). Once you have your account and are at that page, click "edit this personalized page" over on the right hand side. I deleted all of the standard pages that were already setup and made a few of my own.

I created one tab called "bond insurers" and used the search string (FGIC OR MBIA OR AMBAC)without the parenthesis. I created a second tab called "the fed" and used the search string ("Federal Reserve" OR "Ben Bernake" OR FOMC). I have one final tab labeled "banks" that I setup with the search string ("write down" OR FDIC).

While this won't give me up to the second updates when they come out(it refreshes on it's own only about once every 15 minutes) I can pop that page and refresh it manually any time I'm feeling anxious about market direction and see if any "noise" is coming out that might spook the lemmings one way or another. The only thing that bothers me is that it still lists a few "top stories" at the top and I haven't been able to strip them out. This adds "noise" to the RSS feed which I don't like being as how I use google reader to keep tabs on it.

Just tossing out it out there in case anyone else would like to do something similar. :-)

I don't know if this will work if you don't already have a google account, but here is a link to my personalized news searches
http://tinyurl.com/2auklk

Oh, also I should point out that you can also configure google alerts(email alerts) with any search string you like as well. So if you wanted to say watch for emergency FOMC meetings, you could setup an alert with "emergency FOMC" in the search field and receive an email alert if it gets any hits.

QUENTUSREX: You are a wise person for deciding not to trade. You did get an education didnt you? :) If nothing else, you know what you dont know, and you acted decisively. Congratulations.

There is a world of difference between gambling and trading. One of which is the size of the profits and lossess.

Recreational trading is more dangerous than recreational gambling, and way less fun.

Recreational trading is more socially acceptable than recreational gambling. That in intself makes it dangerous.

Gamblers can have their judgment clouded by being treated as a 'whale', given comps, and served unlimited amounts of alcohol by curvy waitresses in plunging necklines.

Recreational traders have to face the reality of their plunging equity curves , clouded by the delusion of their need to be right in the face of being on the wrong side of the market, and then blame the market.

Or ...they can go thru rigorous self-examination so they know themselves well, while confronting a dynamic market that they dont know well and can change anytime. I dont know any recreational gambler that goes thru rigorous self-examination till its too late, do you?

Gamblers dont need a systematic way to assess a healthy/profitable market environment. ITs a yes/no decision, and most of them go by gut..whether the winds are blowing thier way.

Recreational gamblers dont have to decide direction, distance, velocity, probabiliy, how much and.... when they are wrong, they dont even have to move the chips across the table, someone else does it for them.

Lord..I'll rather be a recreational gambler anyday. :)

GAMBLING, to me, is having a recreational trader's mindset in a market where volume is dominated by professionals.

GAMBLING, to me, is refusing to learn from past mistakes and hoping that the market's ebb and flow corrects ill chosen trades.

GAMBLING, to me, is blaming the market rather than the trader who chose the conditions to trade.

GAMBLING, to me, is not having a way to evaluate, document and correct trade decisions and trades impulsively in search of closing the last mile.( Yes YABA I believe those guys were gambling)

TRADERS are as honest as their equity curves.

Now..who is going to be gambling tommorow vs trading?

EEM- great post

why is it that 'gambling' has a negative connotation, whereas 'trading' does not? gamblers are as capable of (rigorous) self-examination, systematic assessment of risk, and responsible money management as traders (and the good ones prefer removing their own chips from the table ;)...and traders are as capable of impulsive behavior, refusing to learn from mistakes, and having their judgment clouded by unlimited amounts of alcohol as gamblers (not to mention having their chips taken off the table for them by the always helpful margin folks)...

i think it's possible to be successful at either pursuit...there are some highly astute professional gamblers, and some highly astute professional traders...

Isn't the idea to use the disciplined systems of the professionals?

Professional gamblers have systems to overcome the weaknesses of recreational gamblers, which is what makes them pros.

They refuse liquor, women, etc. and count cards, use money management, and stack the odds in their favor. They know the house has the advantage (like we know HB&B does) and they act accordingly. In some cases the house knows they are pros and won't allow them to play. Why is that? Because they have systems to overcome the house advantage. They also set limits and never play on margin. Recreational gamblers in most cases don't know these things even exist, anymore than recreational "investors" do.

We have a system here were we trade good quality securities using RSI and current market trends and we tune out the noise. In the gambler's case this could be liquor, women and comps, in our case it could be a rumor about a bond insurer countering $560+ Billion in *current* liabilities of the financial center banks with a $3.3 billion capital infusion by those same FCB's to save the AAA rating of their insurer. They may as well have been passed out drunk in a comped room with a Las Vegas hooker Friday at 3:30.

If my auto/home insurer calls me for a capital infusion or I have to loan them money to stay solvent, it isn't a good sign.

I don't think I need any special tools to know that, just the smarts to not chase it.

BTW, I've had the comped suite in Reno with the sunken hot tub and the windows to the world judging the Collie National and I set my limit at the one armed bandits to $50. I'm disappointed I never saw a free drink served by curvy "waitresses". Proof they can tell a hayseed from a whale. LOL.

Zenob, re watching the lemmings

How about just getting Cable and having the CNBC noise in the background? Or on XMSR-SIRI radio or whatever if no television on hand?. Or just watch the ticks of the market to know something is up?.

All these will get you a better read, especially the ticks. You may see a headline to 'insurers', but you won't know how to react in most cases until you see the 'tick' of the market. It's all about reaction.

Zenob- if you have access to Skype during market hours, you'd probably start hearing some pings when something is up...

Hi,
Any caraistas planning to attend Jim Sinclair's meeting?
Details at www.jsmineset.com (scroll down to Sat 5:15pm entry).
It'll be on Fri Feb 29, 1230pm, in downtown Toronto (le meridien hotel).
Believe it's free but you have to email his corp asst to secure a seat.
Would love to hear about his latest views on commodities, miners, otc derivatives fiasco, etc.

I have to have some kind of web based info rather then tv/skype. I do most of my trading at my day job. lol

In terms of sector breadth last week – I’m seeing the broadest buying went into Energy sectors once again, with Metals and Mining, Semiconductors, Homebuilders, Building Materials and Financials also very strong. The broadest selling was in Telecom, Biotech, Utilities and Software this week.

Good Trading All!
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

If you can't be around for shuttle launches like Friday I know Scottrade will send e-mail alerts on news related to securities you choose as well as streaing general news related to the markets.

Most of the time these releases beat the TV outlets...like Fed rate cut announcements, etc.

I don't think the Friday's closing rally will turn into a trend. Two weeks ago I was reading in the news that the bailout of monolines can happen any day now and that AMBAC is the first one to receive funding. So the fact that the same "old news" was repeated on Friday scared only the most emotional traders. The serious investors who control large sums of money are looking at the fundamental picture, which is best described, I think, by the ABX indices (I wrote about them a few days ago). On Friday they all broke below their long-term support levels. Even if they stay at the current levels, banks will have to write down more losses for the quarter, as their assets have diminished to the extent indicated by the ABX indices. However, I think the indices will keep going down (since a long-term support was just broken), which will greatly magnify the extent of banks' losses. There are trillions of CDOs and CDSs outstanding, and they are designed to withstand only a small amount of value loss of the underlying portfolio. However, if the value loss exceeds it, the losses will start multiplying exponentially. We don't need the ABX indices to go down to 0 in order for the trillions of CDOs and CDSs become worthless.

Having said that, I am reasonably well hedged now, keeping SRS and SKF as well as long commodity stocks. My portfolio change on Friday was a record 0.02%! :) If the market rallies for some time, I will be selling my long positions into strength (making sure to sell each bunch of shares with at least 3% profit), and if it goes down, I will be selling SKF/SRS with profit. So I'll gladly take any market move...

Re: gambling
Some clarification of my 10:04am post
The entertaining part of that story was not the gambling; this was not gambling. It was a classic hustle. What made an impression to me was that someone with hundreds of dollars in their pocket would want to make another $20 from a kid with a cardboard box and 3 cards. They actually felt so good about taking a kid's money that they would want to make another $40. The fact they could not see that the game was fixed or they thought they were smarter and seeing them lose large amounts was the entertaining part. This experience for me encaptulates the negative aspects of human nature that is rampant in the financial markets. This type behaviour in the financial markets can be contained somewhat by regulatory oversight but can never be eliminated; it is part of our human(inhuman) nature. What the young hustlers were doing on the street is what the big boys are doing to all of us everyday. They want us to think we know where the one eyed jack is. They actually tell us where it is then swiftly move it somewhere else. What happened Friday afternoon is a prime example.
There are many traders here that understand this hustle and they know how to take the first $20 and walk away. It is what I am learning. Thanks again Bill, cheers

On the subject of gambling/trading, recall posting from last summer:

The psychology of it all.

Looking at human behavior, one can see the power of intermittent reinforcement.

The gaming industry knows this well and uses it to its advantage with various slots, crap tables, and card games. People continue to play and the power makes them return again and again.

It applies to many things in life, even something like golf. There are rock stars (Alice Cooper), sports figures (Lawrence Taylor (football)) who left alcohol, and drug addiction and traded it for golf addiction, again the power of intermittent reinforcement.

Looking at the markets today, I would say there are a lot of traders, who succumb to the power of intermittent reinforcement. The challenge is to be successful.
Posted by: Seamus at August 30, 2007 10:29 AM

Chaina is diverging once more->Japan and Taiwan up >2%, Shanghai down 2.75%:

http://tinyurl.com/3belnq

Bill Donoghue comments on David Walker's resignation (and his new job heading "the newly formed Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Peterson, senior chairman of The Blackstone Group and Commerce secretary in the Nixon administration, has pledged an astounding startup budget for the foundation of $1 billion."):

http://tinyurl.com/256ypx

excerpt:

"That money will attack what the foundation considers "the most substantial economic, fiscal and other sustainability challenges of our current age" -- including federal entitlement programs, health care, unprecedented trade and budget deficits, low savings rates, mounting foreign debt, soaring energy consumption, an uncompetitive educational system, and the proliferation of nuclear warfare materials. Maybe Congress will listen this time."

I am a reasonably conservative investor with a buy-and-hold philosophy, having most invested assets in mutuals ( presently 30% MMF ), followed by rental property and a large private mortgage. I don't think I have ever held more than 20% of everything in individual securites. According to my BMO stats my trading returns were 19.16% average annual compounding for 2007 and they show -4.90% for January '08. It is extremely hard for me to take a long term position in what I consider quality stocks despite what looks to be "On Sale" prices. I have taken so much away from this blog that I feel it is necessary to share an opportunity on an item I have posted on before....... Bombardier , despite knowing how hard it is to make money on aviation stocks representing an industry that seems to rarely make money itself. Do your own DD but here are the simple facts: record sized Order Book, financial restructuring that is working, diversified global income that has nowhere to go but up, etc. A pending Jan 31st year-end announcement could be an all-time record year for revenue and profit. Recent news that Bombardier is about to announce the go-ahead of the new C class regional jet and the possibility of building it in the USA says volumes to those who have traded the BBD.B for years, as I have. This is a clarion call to the Canadian government that they and the province of Quebec better ante up another billion or so, or they are flying south. Such a move would also set the stage for speculation that BBD might soon find itself under the wing of Boeing . I have long held the view that this will happen and the Transportation Division that remains will relocate to Berlin where it can more effectively conduct global business. So there you have it...... a global brand flying under the radar with a stock price that should be in the $7 - 10 range, or higher, in the next 12 months. Very limited risk that the price will collapse with a falling market.

Kaimu - Thanks for the comments.

I agree with so much that you say in your posts that you really had me going for a couple of minutes. Not so, however, in this case.

Please go back to the chart that I posted. The “blue line” is for the average price of a house AS MEASURED IN OUNCES OF GOLD. The “gold line” is the actual price of gold. Thus, for any point of time, “inflation” as measured in the POG is equally factored into both lines, and all that remains for comparison purposes is the relativity of the rises and falls in both lines and the juxtaposition of peaks.

Here is that link that I posted and thanks for making me think through my earler thought:
http://tinyurl.com/2ybrdh

Nikkei225 broke out of its range/resistance tonight on ascending triangle formation - been watching this set-up for a while now - let's see if the price can hold up...13920/13925 - JNMH8 - long N225 - up over 3% tonight

JNMH8 next target - overhead resistance @ 14190-14250 area...

ALOHA !!

spot ... you miss my point or perhaps I miscommunicated. I am not disputing the chart you posted because I have posted the same chart here over a year ago!

You stated:"...the first “truthful” data that comes out that House Prices are bottoming might be an excellent leading indicator that Gold Prices have crested." Then you follow up by saying this: "Buying Gold here for the long haul might be a good idea only so long as the “Long Haul” ends with the bottom of House Prices, and we might already be more than half way there."

My point I tried to make with the "inflation adjusted" charts I posted was that housing could bottom while gold prices could continue to rise. I believe housing will revert to a mean based more on wages (affordability)than the value of gold. Gold is money houses are not! Thats the big difference and the main point I am explaining that could make past price points on your chart irrevelant. Will there be an instance where average house prices rise along with gold? In a hyperinflationary enviroment it could happen because wages would also be rising rapidly. Housing is more supply and demand. There is an over supply that was made possible by cheap credit and lax loan requirements and specualtors bid up prices higher than the rate of inflation, especially in the hotter markets like Florida and Las Vegas and California. If banks had maintained the 10% down requirements of the past we would not have sub-prime problems or tricky ARM loans. These tactics were done to compensate for the lack of rising wages so that the real estate bubbles could be sustained longer along with HB&B profits. The inventories will take a very long time to work down unless something changes such as wages suddenly rising faster. That could happen if China and other countries decide to unpeg their currencies or use substitute currencies instead of the US Dollar. The US Dollar welfare would end in a tsunami of inflation!

Should this be happening in 2008? This country is becoming bankrupt in more ways than one.
"Woman dies during flight after being refused help"
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2l384y

Seems to be another problem:

"Judges in at least five states have stopped foreclosure proceedings because the banks that pool mortgages into securities and the companies that collect monthly payments haven't been able to prove they own the mortgages."

via Bloomberg: http://tinyurl.com/2h5pbb

Here's a link where you can d/l a scan of Selden's book, "Psychology of the Stock Market",
as recommended by Leisa. (I wasn't in the mood to set up a google acct.)
http://tinyurl.com/3dwcud

Kaimu - Unfortunately for me, the underlying support for my theory is thin. I don’t have anything more than my posted chart to use; so, I concede the field.

Although I won’t press my points, I do think that some further consideration should be given to yours. Why should “CPI adjusted” data should be used for anything other than to support Gov claims? It has neither a constant formula nor a valid interpretation for what it claims to be. Thus, it should be hard to accept that data as a meaningful way to “adjust” anything.

Secondly, you mention the effects of “speculation” as being separate from the effects of inflation and wage spiraling. I agree with that. I would go further, though, and define “speculation” as being attributable in degree to the prevailing strength of greed and fear. That factor of greed and/or fear is what determines the peaks and nadirs of bubbles, and despairs, while inflation/deflation usually determine the overall direction. Thus, while it IS possible for the POG and POH to move in the same direction; it is also possible for increasing bubbles of greed, or despairing levels of fear, to overshadow and go counter to another assets direction.

Feel free to disagree, but I am not smart enough to add anything more. As Peter Townsend would put it: I have reached my “level of incompetence” on the issue. Even so, I have enjoyed the discussion and again, thanks for the comments.

ALOHA !!

My main theory is based on a monetary crisis. The USA has never really experienced such a crisis under the current conditions where derivatives make up 75% of global liquidity and 800%+ of global GDP. Many economies are at risk but the USA is tops on that list. The USA has never experienced a monetary crisis under the current conditions of extreme debt and extreme lack of savings. There is no brake on debt in the World simply because there is no gold standard. If the FED can click a mouse they can create debt!

Naturally I believe that CPI adjusted(inflation)is needed because the US Dollar does not buy what it did in 1980 or 1900! Just measuring historical price points for "values" is not enough. That would work if I could still buy a new house for $30,000 like I could back in the 1970s! I am the last to believe that CPI is accurate and if anything it is vastly understated but you have to use something. Sadly you have touched on the main reason a fiat monetary system robs us of our future. Without a stable measure or standard of measure how can business accurately plan for the future and more importantly how can you and I reasonably plan for retirement?

I agree that speculation based on greed and deflation based on fear drives prices to irrational levels. So far such irrational levels have only been seen here in the USA during periods of relative USDX stability. What about inflation based on fear? Thats what you get when in a monetary crisis. In an effort to calm the fear of the masses the government keeps printing money.

How bad could it get if the USA had a monetary crisis that resulted in hyperinflation? Here are some recent examples going back to 1985 ...

1982 thru1988 - Mexico - 1000%
1985 - Bolivia - 12,000%
1989 - Argentina - 3,000%
1990 - Peru - 7,500%
1991thru 1997 - Russia - 700%
1993 - Brazil - 2,100%
1993 - Ukraine - 5,000%
1994 - Yugoslavia - 5,000,000,000+%
1999 - Ecuador - 70%
2002 - Argentina - 400%
2004thru Now - Zimbabwe - 2330%

Under a monetary crisis price points on old charts are out the window. Thats my point. I believe we are in a monetary crisis in the USA only nobody wants to admit it yet!