divergences this morning-

QID/DXD/SDS are down pre-market...but DUG/SMN/FXP bidding up...

craig/OldGoat- GFI-> i can hear you guys from here, man...

Strange markets
They just cant go up without letting the cat out of the bag [oil gold popping - inflation]
It reminds me of the scene in a movie
where a man tries to walk in new shoes
he bought, but everytime he moves,
the squeak

Logo is much better, good one.
I was thinking for a second you took the
Kalik style and just added Cara :-))))

The leap up amongst the Wall streeters, leh, ms, gs, bsc was unexpected, and mysterious yesterday. Seemed like someone was gaming the fed notes from the bell, but with three and four percent moves, like they were absolutely sure what as inside. Could not be, could it?

$TNX is the yield chart for the Ten Year Treasury Bond. Since Aug, 2007 the $TNX has been "stair-stepping" down in an orderly manner and with a reversal here it might continue to do so, but we have an interesting kind of triange here with $TNX sitting on support of the H_ and under resistance of the T_ . If Bonds are to continue to move down in the ToG, then yield will have to break out above resistance. (See chart at link below.)

http://tinyurl.com/2mspdy

***************
OT - My smiling half just announced that with the prices of milk, cereals, eggs, oatmeal, grits, etc, etc, now costing about what steak used to cost, my breakfast serving will now consist of a baked potato 8^).

Logo looks fine Bill. Like the colors.

I read yaba's view and understand his point about the darker color pointing up. That works for me too!

Well done!

Bill:
LOGO colors:

They don’t seem to have the strength and brightness you associate with dynamic financial endeavors.
Your selection has more of an association with a dysfunctional drug many of us old folks have taken an interest in.

I just saw a Jim Rogers interview where he chose buying the Renminbi as the best investment for the next few quarters.

Short of opening an account with a Chinese bank that operates in the US, does anyone know how this can be accomplished? I cannot find any ETF and Everbank offers currency CDs (including Indian Rupee) but no Renminbi.

2nd, OG:
I held my nose and waited for the best price I could get yesterday in GFI *after* cussing a blue streak....500 shares.

Was underwater going into the close and woke up this morning up $500. Sold them at 15.30 and reloaded same at 15.11.

Also have a stink bid in just in case...

Also this AM:
QID @49.75
INTC 200 @ 20.38
MSFT 200 @ 28.25

Logo: I liked the first one with the aqua background and the red hued arrows.
I understand the pastels are in vogue these days, just look at ties. Same colors as the logo.

The old colors would have made really nice shirts.....:>)

craig- GFI->that's great...so it's just OG i'm hearing this morning ;)...you must have mastered the art of extended hours trading, nice entries on INTC/MSFT...

still on the wrong side of the market myself->DUG/SMN/FXP...nice basis(bases) on all, so i'm OK for now...

I like the the logo a lot, Bill. Very sharp.

Weekly jobless claims came in just a touch higher than expected, but below last week's number by 9K. However, the 4-week average is going higher and higher.

http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/reports/US/EN/New_York/jobless_claims/year/2008/weekly/08/index.html

Check out the chart and be sure to discount the spike in '05 as it was related to the aftermath of hurricane Katrina.

Anyone still think yesterday's rally has any basis in reality or that we are NOT in a recession?

2nd: I sent you an e-mail last night regarding this exact thing. Probably your work addy...so you haven't seen it yet.

The long and short of it is Bill's comments last night about prices being where the gunslingers want them. If they are ranging all over why not put in some auto bids at best wish price or within the low of the range and then use autos to sell them for the profit we want to make?

Example would have been our lovely FXP trades a few days ago...:>)

jragusa

Everbank offers a World Access Deposit account in Chinese renminbi with no interest. You would be playing your anticipated appreciation in the currency.

There are vehicles out there, you just have to dig. There not always easy to find and you have to read the prospectus.

For example, I've liked the Asian currencies the last two years vs. the USD and have benefited from CAQ (Amex) with cost basis at a low 9 handle. It matures in March, providing capital gain as well as interest, and was significantly better than a bond or money market. Not recommended at this time as that train left the station a l-o-n-g time ago.

FWIW, Buffett is supposedly in Brazilian reals.

Good luck!

2nd/Craig - Repeat after me this phrase, or as my Russian language professor taught me years ago (spelling approximate using English alphabet) Paftaritie zam noy etu frazu:

"There is no such thing as a quadruple top!"

I wish there was a way to get intra-day point-and-figure charts; would've shown the strength building. Anyway, what's done is done! Live and learn, and move on to the next trade.

jobless data could be low due to Calif. not reporting for 1 day last wk

UXG reporting some nice grades at their Mexican property. Added some @3.52.

Chinese currency q: what is renmimbi vs yuan ?

jrPAULEY: Same.dollar vs buck.

In UUU.to at the low 5's. Counting on knee jerk reaction.

re: logo

Has an island feel to it. A bit washed out. Yellow bar should be on right too in order to even out. Font is a bit small for trading advisors. Bars and large C seem to convey motion.

Here's a neat comparison on some historical and current logos for tech companies.

http://tinyurl.com/2jsrq5

Here's a link to some financial logo tips.
http://tinyurl.com/ythsgw

If we're reviewing a logo, we should look at multiple sizes & black and white along with color, to see how the logo scales on different media.

Bill, picking up on your hockey analogy, this market feels like I'm crowded in front of my goalies net with 100 mph slapshot coming at me from unexpected directions.

I think I've already taken a few pucks in the mouth and lost some teeth. ;)

"Hey Smitthee! Pass me da' puckin' puck!"

Tight stops. Tight stops. Tight stops.

Aside from the big boys, one of my favorite miners, Hecla (HL) reports results today after the close. Per usual, it's been run up a bit in anticipation.

Buying RMB or Yuan...

Looked into it locally and can get currency at travel agent. Problem is the largest common bill is 100, so a huge volume is needed. Using cash in a SD Box one method, and not likely taxed. However I decided to use Gold and Silver as the percentage gain is expected to be much greater than can be obtained using RMB.
All fiat currencies are being debased.

SDS - 10-minute MACD crossover @ 61.75 (typed this 3 minutes ago and went to make coffee while IB trader workstaiton reloaded after update; now 62.04

I'm also taking the opportunity to sell some calls on my long-term holdings. When the market hands you a gift, says I-Loser, take it.

I agree with what wavemash said about the logo.

In addition, I find there are too many colours in the logo and that the way the first A in "ARA" is squished in between the two diagonal rectangles on the right of the C is somewhat awkward. I'm not sure the blue gradient for the rectangles (from the top right over the C to the bottom right under the C) works for me.

The theme is nice, but I think the designer can tweak it to make it GREAT!

OldGoat,

Live and learn!! I was stopped out yesterday on my FCX..

moving on.

Thanks everyone.

I picked up some TWM when the R2K bounced off it's downtrend resistance on the hourly chart (@719). So far, so good. But there's no way I'm giving back more than a few cents of my gains so far.

This could easily be a minor pullback before the markets head northward again.

And the surge in the home builders is just plain absurd. As it was the last time this happened.

UUU is a day trader's dream today.

I_Loser: Careful shorting RUT; I have puts. The chart pattern has a flag that could bust northward with a long way to run, assuming the flag flies at half mast.

bill- re the logo, agree with comments by wavesmash/fazeli->a design/font/print with more definition and possibly a more 'kinetic' design->i equate trading to games/volatility/motion, as opposed to the more sedate image of investing...JMO...

Aurator: You still hodling your CCJ puts and EEV..? both are up since yesterday...that daily MACD looks strong and trending...what time frame do you look at , ere=...when you 'trade'?

SDS - 62.01

FXP- out at 89 and change...
DUG->gaining momentum...
SMN- almost touched the 52-wk low again...

Aurator. Caution well taken. I just got stopped out of my position after a decent gain. I walked that stop up as the RUT moved down to 713. So now it has reversed and will likely make another stab at 719. If it fails again, and I'm paying attention, I'll repeat the trade.

Again. Tight stops are the rule of the day.

You have to take what the market gives you these days.

2nd ave: nice call on both DUG and FXP..Boone Pickens is with you. Watch the MSFT announcement..

I'm not a visual person, according to my wife (but I chose you, I replied), but here's my 0.4 wooden nickel's worth:
The dark bar in the bottom right is the dominant line, which says "short me" or "my portfolio's not looking good".
I'd like the "Trading Advisors (Bahamas) Ltd" in the same yellow (its really gold, isn't it) as the horizontal bar. I tend to like symmetry (and gold).

EEMTrader: Yes still have CCJ puts and EEV. CCJ hugging the band going against me. Will hold a bit longer. EEV will be a core holding through the next down cycle even if there is pain along teh way. Add EEV as it is on the lower band. I have no doubt EEV will be much higher if the scenario I expect unfolds. (If not, there are plenty of issues with my picks.)

INTC out at 20.82 Let some get away, was up 2.15%
MSFT out at 28.83
SKF in at 108.10 out at 109.15
GFI 15.11 buy out at 15.30
WGW in at 3.63

Aurator...market acts like it wants to go up..they keep trying to pop out of that triangle..oil going down should help EEV, EEM at $143 is when I am going to add EEV...crazy market...

Aurator: That's a bear flag on the daily for the RUT. I see it has repeated twice since last July. That last time the pattern resolved was in late December when prices broke downward from a double-top in the flag channel.

Don't you see the same thing forming again? I do. If so, the place to look for going aggressive short would be a run up to 730.

Oh, and I forgot to add: "history never repeats, but it often rhymes."

SNDK out of 1/2 at 25.98

RUT pennant looks bullish with pole stuck in ground Jan 24. Target would be over 750.

FXF/FXY strong. We won't rally into this.

EEMTRADER- that's great news->T. Boone is the kind of guy you want to bet with, not against...

2nd ave;i doont know whether you believe in channel lines..but if xle drops below 74.85..it will drop below the middle channel line and nice move down from there...

EEM, thx for the yuan info. Re your 'no rally into FXY', what is the thinking behind this? Just curious

Oops, FXY comment addressed to wrong trader

GOOG and BIDU opened solidly up and have been sold ever since.

Todd Harrison has a note today that he sees the risk as tremendous to both sides. If debt markets recover we could see a monster rally and if they don't we could lose 1,000 points on the DOW in a hurry.

SDS- Taking some off @ 62.33

JRPAULEY: I think Craig mentioned the yen rallying (FXY)..he may be referring to the carry trade...ask craig.

Cara 100 Update:

RIMM upgraded to Above Average @ Caris & Co.

Target Price Lowered on GRMN from $140 to $117 @ JMP Securities.

ALOHA !!

ECU SILVER-ECU.V/ECUXF(US) Up today on the announcement that they will resume mining and have all funds required to complete drilling for the entire 2008 exploration calendar year. Meaning they do not intend to dilute shares further.

I have been waiting for this info and I expect this to make the ECU share price move and make up for lost time from the lack luster response to their last 43-101 report, which was a totally unwarranted and inane selloff!

Here you have a company that was mining and actually had a profit at 2007 2nd qtr., announced a temporary stop to adjust their metallurgy and drilling strategies then they more than double their resources and then go on to move their probables to 400mil Ag and even mention 800mil Ag(1300% increase). Remember ECU has an operating mine and needs no extra $500mil to build or update. Of course all that in the minds of momentum dolts is a screaming sell! YEAH RIGHT!! The AZ for ECU just ticked up on Monday so I bought more. Anything under $2.00 is a steal and anything under $3 is fantastic because they will return to profit and double the deposit again at the same time. Of course DOW market downturns and POS will drive the price in the short term, but the long term fundamentals are still solid.

Phht. So much for Mr. Softies big announcement.

FXF/FXY: Watch the tape daily. Strong Franc and Yen, weak US markets. It's just the way it is.

We rally nicely if they are just holding or weak.

SDS - Nice liftoff; still holding 2/3 position.

What a valuable indicator the 10-minute MACD(24,48,9) is!

Riding AEM since Jan. 29 . . . RSI D-W-M now all over 70 . . . price above upper bollinger band on daily.

Selling Mar 70 calls here @2.20 on position

Craig had a decent discount coupon and picked up Come into my Trading Room by Elder . . . reading a little at a time to absorb . . . well worth it IMO.

SKF: piling back in.

ECUFX no good at Fidelity. Not valid symbol.

Try ECUFX.U

ECU:
Its ECUXF

Aurator inverted X & F---- ECUXF @ 1.94

FETV just aired a market genius opining that a big market move is in the cards. He admitted that he didn't have any idea which direction the move would take, only that a major market move is coming soon.

Thanks a lot.

Does FETV drag their guests off of barstools?

Thanks for reminding me Seamus...have to check the mail box....

ECUXF is the symbol.

Try ECU.TO

ECU.TO for charting; when you click Trade, it will switch automatically to ECUXF.

DOW narrowing symmetrical triangle: Today the center is about 12,350, upper bound is 12,470, lower bound is 12,220. If it drops out the bottom, we go to hades without passing go or collecting 200 Yuan. Out the top and the retracement could reach 13,100.

Seamus:
I am re-reading that book right now. I suspect this won't be the last time. It's excellent.

One of my favorite passages:
"The market includes some of the most brilliant minds and some of the deepest pockets on Earth. Arguing with this group is dangerous business, and it has to be done very cautiously." (p. 45)

That's something I try to keep in mind.

GFI reloaded 15.09 out at 15.30
Let's do it again! That's 4 round trips today.

SDS - Out @ 62.56

Wow - - AEM w/68 handle . . will be interesting to see if WGW can clear 3.75 where lots of sell orders listed by MM.

Mentioned before the weak SA rand . . someone else also mentioned it and cited the lower expenses in rand for GFI, while all their gold sales in USD. Still have infrastructure, geo-political challenges. If it can stay above 50 EMA, resistance will probably be at 200 EMA around 16.40 if gold rally continues.

MikeNYC recall the quote. Thanks to you and Jock (and others) for mentioning this book in the past.

This Marketwatch note on CSCO reads like Bills post of a week or so ago, only re-worded into analyst-speak. The CSCO Jan 20 puts I wrote that day are still working for me ("Bill's Puts") I really don't expect to ever see those shares. Perfect. Thanks, Bill.

THE RATINGS GAME
Cisco shares rise on Citigroup upgrade
By Benjamin Pimentel, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Shares of Cisco Systems Inc. were up about 3% Thursday morning after Citigroup upgraded the tech giant's shares to a "buy."
Analyst Paul Mansky of Citigroup said Cisco stock is "attractive to long-term investors"

{blah blah blah snipped}

G/S: 950/18

SKF took profits...watch macd, starting to flatten- ready to cross? RSI/stoch/W%R turning up.

"RUT pennant looks bullish with pole stuck in ground Jan 24. Target would be over 750"

Ah, I see it now, Aurator. Thanks. But I also see a longer-term bearish flag with the pole beginning @799 in late December.

Either way, that symmetrical triangle will squeeze out one way or another.

BTW, I should have been more liberal with my stop earlier on TWM. Oh, well ... that's why I have this name.

WGW broke it . . now @ 3.80

Like the logo! I had one suggestion, take it or leave it..

Possibly a larger inner diameter of the spoked wheel so the first "A" in Cara doesn't come in contact with only the upper spoke, as it appears to.

Perhaps it should be aligned such that the inferred / suggested vertical line that makes up the right side of the inner octagon should match up with the vertical symmetry line of the A? Right now the vertical symmetry line is kicked just to the right of the inner octagon's right edge. The big thing for me is that the A comes really close to touching the upper bar and not as close to the lower bar.

Also the yellow "blends" with the white a lot, (i'm sure blend is the wrong word, perhaps this is what wavesmash referred to as "washed out") Perhaps a slightly darker yellow is req'd to make it stand out a little more? I don't know.

But this is all nitpicking, and probably subjective. Looks great overall!

EEMTRADER- wouldn't know the difference between a middle channel line and a cruise line to the channel islands...but if you're saying XLE should be heading south at full bore once it crosses that line, i'll see if i can find it on a chart after work..

Next leg up in the miners started today. The most oversold are up the most: GFI, MFN, GRS, NAK.

Just wish Geologix would get up off the mat. I suppose it will after the offering is closed.

Thank you all. Your posts challenge me to look deeper at what I'm holding as you post your trades. I got out of GFI - in @ 13.97 a little too early today after a modest gain. As I was setting up charts to watch SNDK and experimenting with IB's charting possibilities, my position in WGW came up for air so am going to let it run a little Sold 1/2 of MFN -in at $10.03,also a little too early. I learn by hearing your successes and mistakes.
Thanks Bill for shouting over and over that its about the price and to not fight the tape.

Bill, I like the logo. I like the colors as it reminds me of the tropical paradise you live in. My vote is just one. Does it really matter? Are you shopping for the multitude with the logo as bait? I don't think you are. JMHO

peace to all from a gorgeous day in north Puget Sound

HDNG -25% today, bought some at 12.35

RBY nice run up :)

comments on HDNG anyone?

Re. HDNG decline caused by this of course:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080221/earns_hardinge.html?.v=1

look at the NAZ charging downhill...43.50 on the Qs?

another QID/FXP divergence?

Bill reference your hockey comment, think of Gretzky who said something like he "didn't watch where the puck was, but where the puck was going."

Definitely applies to markets.

Think 2nd mentioned something similar from his soccer days.

Let PAL slip off my radar, but look at that move since 2/5! Think the shark followed this one.

HDNG has about 2% insider holdings and has had sales this quarter

INTC - bollinger bands plus formation on daily pointing towards future price volatility.

PAL, speaking of PAL, I sold this on 2/12 up 64% not wanting to be a pig. Since then it's up 77%.

Really like the quote by Elder, "The market includes some of the most brilliant minds and some of the deepest pockets on Earth. Arguing with this group is dangerous business, and it has to be done very cautiously."

Seamus, MikeNYC, others -

I'm in the middle of reading "Come Into My Trading Room" myself after the recommendations by some on this board.

I'd like to echo what an impact it has already made in the way I perceive the ins-and-outs of the markets and thank those that mentioned it.

On a side note, what camp is everyone in for the near-to-longer term (1-2 years)? I have great respect for both Mish and Peter Schiff and read them religiously (as well as Bill) but they are at odds with each other with respect to deflation-hyperinflation viewpoints.

The only way I can reconcile their analysis is to believe we are and will be seeing significant deflation over the next couple of years (such as the SOMA being drastically reduced and replaced with the TAF which has actually reduced liquidity), with a high possibility of hyperinflation kicking in once the lag from failed reflationary policies is realized and the move away from the dollar by foreign countries is more pronounced.

Mish had a post a couple of days ago - that was quite controversial based on the comments - that got me wondering about the debate. Gold should be great for either scenario, but for everything else, it is crucial to be on the right side.

Leavitt Brothers latest video:

http://tinyurl.com/2jx8ak

Obviously goes well with the content on this blog. I'm listening! Listening!

TLT - rise stalling at current level. 10-min MACD(24,48,9) about to cross down.

Inflation/Deflation: Still digesting all this but am thinking we have a massive increase in money supply and credit by the Fed, and at the same time vanishing credit and wealth as the derivitive markets unwind. Expect massive drop in equity markets IMHO, plus we have a huge loss of wealth in real estate.

If you wonder which force is winning out, look no further than the price of Gold.

Talking bobble heads on TV today making me cringe as they talk about "commodity prices causing inflation", whereas it's the falling dollar that is the cause and the prices are the result.

It is clear the Fed and the other G-men are acting according to some agenda and not what is best for the US Economy, average investors, and middle class.

exiting DUG

Is it my imagination or is a wedge forming in SKF?

Telestar3d, I am/was in that same boat on PAL

On one hand, how can you argue with 65% in a few days? On the other hand, I considered selling 1/2 and keeping 1/2. That would have been the way to play it, as we both underestimated the power of a parabolic rise.

I sold PAL after reading Jack Lifton's Resource Investor article on the large inventories of Palladium he thinks have been accumulating for years.

I do think this will be short lived, and am considering a short on PAL instead.

exiting FXP & QID

Greetings Caraistas:

I've been kind of a lurker here for some time and am wondering if I could get some advice from folks. I have been long gold and silver since mid 2005 and am wondering how to position myself through this year, particularly since part of my portfolio was purchased via a loan on which I'm paying interest. Based on the "trade of the century" I'm looking to stay long. I would sum up my impressions based on a post from FranSix yesterday when he linked to these charts: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40616. Most of the analysis I read seems to support this, however one analyst, Enrico Orlandini, talks about a deflationary scenario that would see the price of gold decline.

This is his analysis from three weeks ago:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/orlandini012908.html

Finally I would like to talk a little bit about the ramifications regarding a significant decline in the Dow. As of late it seems that gold is somewhat tied to the ups and downs of the Dow and it would not surprise me to see gold top out shortly after the Dow reaches the 12,811 mark. This implies a top in gold somewhere around the 968 mark. Once the Dow begins to head down to my 10,795 area, I would expect to see gold specifically, and commodities in general, deflate. Once gold tops, I am convinced we'll see a 20% correction.

Most gold bugs are now so caught up in the euphoria of the rally that they can't see the windshield coming toward them at 100 mph. The only word that comes to mind is "splat"! Once gold and the commodities begin to correct, you'll have your first indication of what a full blown deflation would look like. Gold, commodities, stocks, and the US dollar all headed south at the same time. I will of course hang on to my gold but I will sell short the grains, oil, and copper as they fall from grace. Similarly, once the Dow tops at 12811 I would expect to see a significant rally in bonds that take the March bond up to 124 at the very least. That's why I will buy the bonds once the reaction in stocks comes to an end. As far as selling commodities short, I see the grains as offering the best opportunity to make money on the down side.

exiting eev

In the short term, many times it feels like gold trades with stocks, but stocks topped in October yet gold is up over 20% since then.

IMO,the future volatility in gold will blow your hair back. It may start when gold gets close to $1000 and Bill's possible scenario of margins being raised comes to pass leading to huge declines, to be bought of course.

Gold will be sold when the broad averages tumble due to hedge fund liquidations. Baby and bathwater. Looking for DOW down to 12250, up to 13100, then way down. Turn down March 1 +-.

Both livestock, people and fuel eat grains.
I wouldn't bet on them going down with three types of demand and countries limiting exportsdue to shortages.

Scarcity = higher prices.

PNP.TO - Nobody's mentioned Pinetree being up 9% this morning...or did I miss it?

Wpeyton, I think I underestimated and failed to appreciate that Eskom’s problems are real and long-term in nature.

How vulnerable are the car companies going forward with respect to being able to secure an adequate supply of palladium for catalytic converters?

The great thing about trading and the markets is that they usually always give you a second chance. You just have to be quick and recognize that the market is presenting that opportunity. That’s the hard part, case in point on 2/13 PAL dropped to a low of 5.46, and obviously that was an area of opportunity.

I like the logo. It's tasteful and conservative, yet the colors
give it 'an island' feel. The yellow draws the eyes to the design.

Sarah-Hadassah

wow - make that 3 of us on the PAL trade...and yes I was shaken out by that article too...

Grains MAY have a slight pullback when hedgies get squeezed and dump everything, but that would be a great buying opportunity. Wouldn't bet on grains going down. There are inbalances out there with global demand exceeding global supply.

Think back to the numerous postings here and elsewhere of incident after incident of shortages, food export controls, rising prices, etc. etc. These things do not disappear overnight.

Once again, I'll mention that I am surprised that the gold triangle trade has been easy so far. It has worked out for me (long gold), but it was TOO obvious (nothing against maromatics,of course, he made a great call).

Don't be surprised to find a whole lot of traders long of gold wringing their hands here over their losses, that will be time to fleece the sheeple, just don't know when the will be.

Also, Bill's main goal with this site is to keep Caraistas from being sheeple...gold is a pretty simple trade, buy weakness, sell strength, momentum traders have gotten caught enough times over the last 5 years to have learned that lesson, yet they haven't yet.

Don't be a sheeple, be a Caraista.

Make it 4 on PAL. I sold 1/3 position yesterday :-(
Still, nice profit, so really :-)

Bah? Caraistas are a Caribbean/tropical hair sheep. (St. Croix and Barabado Blackbelly)
We purposely don't have fleece.
And we're a little spooky, change direction on a dime and smokin' fast.

Stay in the flock and keep your skin.....:>)

Does anyone have a good suggestion for free charts?

The cool beta stock charts at Yahoo have not been available lately - which are my favorite. I guess Yahoo decided they were way too useful/functional to be a part of Yahoo. And why can't they open up msg boards for foreign stocks? the link is right there, I see it. Hopefully MSFT will make Yahoo less dysfunctional!

Hmmm. SLW looks to be giving it back, beware.
Franc and Yen still strong, at intraday highs.

Hard to run a sack race against these two tied to a lazy USD.

Billysundance..MSN money..on msn site

AlanM, it's important to recognize that there exists different viewpoints on where we are and are headed amongst the best minds as you have noted.

This is a clue that there is no one out there smart enough to predict the future in an accurate manner as to what is going to happen. All any of us know at this point is we are at some inflection point in history. We draw upon our past and our experiences to try to make sense of the future. THe problem is there is really no past that lines up exactly with today.

I was obsessed with having to know whether we were headed for deflation, stagflation, inflation whatever. It doesn't matter. I feel very good about my strategy of watching price trends and playing them. I'll be well prepared for any market.

We can help each other focus on the bigger picture.

The free MSN Money Deluxe Screener is pretty nice, too, for a free tool.

Out of DUG @ $40.20 (from $38.80 yesterday)

Oil going back to $100 before it falls?

What's up with Breakwater? (BWR)
Vol at 18 million and counting.

Billysundance, the beta charts are still there, i think. they call them now Interactive and do not show them by default. check under Charts

Eric Bolling on FOX says he has changed his mind and agrees with T Boone Pickens. Pickens is short oil.

I see the decline in oil is pulling UNG over the waterfall with it and possibly CCJ.

Holding DUG over night at least.

Bill,

I like the logo:
- compact stable configuration centered in initial letter "C"
- color associations are positive for financial community (gold, azure sings "wealth, blue skies, soaring")
- eight-axis figure with hue gradient evokes familar compass, direction-finding and navigational skill through changing conditions
- visual components stripped to essentials connote straightforward reliability, much as the form of a good tool is reduced to functional essentials
- fortunate associations of "Cara" (Gaelic for "friend" and Italian for "dear" http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=cara ) are highlighted by design
- color scheme is direct, but not overwhelming, is suitable for diverse visual contexts (stationery, signs, etc.)
-horizontal axis dominates and asserts secure and solid base

I know the gold futures are at a record but POG sure feels like it has run out of mo-mo.
I'm taking go34's warning to heart.

Right now I'm flat except a few shares of UXG.
This has been one of my best days on gold and miners. Of course I would like it to continue but it just feels toppy today.

Taking my gold marbles home and keeping my skin for another day.

Sold SKF early again. Second time in a row I've done that. Oh well, I'm getting better anyways. This time I'll try and get a much better entry point.

DUG/SMN-> have to agree with aurator- risk is to XLE/XLB holders right now...Banker is the right play...

I think the new logo is excellent. Though I must admit that I miss the original profile picture as you gazing into your crystal ball to this day. I have appreciated your hard work and thoughtful insights over the years very much, thank you.

Still not able to find those Yahoo beta charts. If anyone can confirm they are still there, a brief description as to how to navigate to them is appreciated.

AEM bellcow had a big reversal today, same as SLW. Maybe the breakout is a trap!?

GOOG and BIDU keep getting sold relentlessly.

Bill,

This logo is better.

Cheers,

BillySundance, try this
http://tinyurl.com/26mga3

[bill cara note: pls use short urls or else put them into tinyurl. Otherwise certain browsers cannot handle to links.

Thanks]

A quick note to thank everyone who is commenting on the new logo draft, which after all is but a development of Bill's very sound original concept. All your input, pro and con, will be considered in producing the final logo.

And, yes indeed johojo, a very astute analysis.

Cheers, All

Re: Yahoo Beta Charts

Yahoo looks like it had been playing around with the beta chart formula, which is probably going to replace the old style.

imo, the old style should be kept and the beta style originally decided upon seems to work best with the quotes.

In the new development with the beta charts, you get a really thick line chart when OHLC worked really well with the thin lines. But to obtain the beta, you have to have a link directly to a beta style chart.

I think they're trying to compete with Google style charts, as they seem very similar.

Damink,

Your link is too long, try tinyurl.com next time.

Re: Cara Logo

Pastel colours work very well here. Just a small suggestion that if the logo is to be round in shape, then the "petals" should be rounded as well.

MOAB: aapl and goog catching bids again while the inidces go down....

German state owned banks:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,536635,00.html

Yahoo Interactive chart.

PS. Sorry for the long link above.

re: yahoo charts

I mentioned this when they first changed the charts on us about 2 weeks ago and haven't been able to find the old charts anywhere.

I don't get it, they have a great chart in 'beta' for a year, then when they take it to production, it's vastly different and crappier, with no option to go back. Why didn't they beta the new version? It feels like it's still in development. Not just fat lines, but overlapping text and clunky responsiveness.

At the same time I got bumped to the new My Yahoo page (maybe cause I got a new PC and lost cookies), and while i like the quick popup of daily chart, i like a * next to new news items more. At least here they let me go back, though now I suffer a 1" banner trying to coax me to new format.

As for microsoft making it better, does anyone use Hotmail? I used to exclusively, but since switching to gmail, Hotmail is positively painful to use.

Sorry for the ramblings. I write software and am a bit sensitive to stoopidity coming out of these multi-billion $ companies...

Yahoo Interactive chart tiny url http://tinyurl.com/ynsxof

EEMTRADER -

I call it the rope-a-dope market. Maybe they will take it up again tomorrow off of support? In the absence of news everyone's trading reactive and the big boys are using the futures to rope everyone.

In relation to GOOG and BIDU I was talking about a longer timeframe. They have been sold relentlessly for the last two months. Both are not far from their January lows. This seems to be signaling where the market is headed.

proudpapa,

You only have to click on the talking balloon for a quickie quote.

Really looks like they're trying to compete with Google's style. You know as they say, nothing original ever happens in business.

Bill wrote: "btw, one of my auto mechanics is a master mechanic who owns the shop. In the front office at the cash register, he has a trading station, where he trades securities all day. Periodically he checks the work of his mechanics. The point being you can specialize at more than one career/business in life. Whatever pays the bills and makes you happy... works."

My auto mechanic friend Gary is also a master mechanic that owns his own shop. I tried to tell him he could do the same as he has the full compliment of computers all over the shop, in the office and front desk. His wife is there too as an accountant. When I was there she was playing solitaire. I told her my video game makes some pretty good money LOL! I tell everyone actually :>) That doesn't mean they will listen to me! He needs it too, he just incorporated and has everything tied up in the business and really needs to think about what he's going to do when he doesn't want to run the shop anymore.

I've known him since we were both in Boy Scouts so I'll give it my best. He's a gun collector. I told him to trade lead for gold....

Cara 100 yhoo most likely will not hold out against the cash rich msft take over bid. Sooner or later the 31.00 offer by msft will be accepted or the 41.00 yahoo guesstimate will be negotiated down to a final compromise offer.
Either way the offer has a good chance of being higher then todays close of 28.44.
Just my opinion, bought yhoo just before the close.
I also believe the msft news release today to open up their code is so msft can integrate yhoo search into msft code a lot easier.
One things for certain, yhoo is playing hard to get!

Cara 100 ntes up +18.51 since 2/15/08
rimm up +12.30 since 2/15/08
gfi up + 14.60 since 2/15/08
vcp up + 10.31 since 2/15/08

MOAB: yes I see your point good observation. closed my trades out and went to the range, came back and cried over the profits I could have made in the afternoon session.

Other than the rescue package of the monolines..dont see what other good is in the market. No data this week was positive. Think the equity markets will play catch up to the credit markets..silly as it seems that it keeps going up to the declining tops line in the face of bad news.

Goofy...hope you are banking lotsa change...

Just got done watching Meredith Whitney on CNBC. The lady know's her stuff and doesn't mince words.

I will say that her appearance alone and with what she said may be the catalyst for a market sell off tomorrow. I have no doubt that if her interview was pre-market instead of post the market would of reacted.

To sum up: Financials are in real trouble and a real mess still. Only 40% of the way thru this. Citi, UBS and Merrill in bad shape. 70 billion exposure to Monolines in US banks. Citi is very capital impaired will have to cut divy again, will need to go begging for money again.

...And then she says...A further 15% to 50% drop in the financials is waiting with -15% the best outcome.

If I find the video later tonight I'll post it.

RE: Yahoo Charts

What baffles me even more is that the beta charts offered Yahoo a nice panel for brokerage advertising vs. this new interactive chart.

I sure hope that this is not the finished product and that the real tool is being finished. What kills me is that even though the thing said BETA for the last year, it seemed to work just fine whenever I used it. Yahoo Finance seems (seemed?) to me to be one of the only areas where Yahoo is superior to Google - Jerry Yang should hire some Caraista consultants to help generate more ad dollars from there finance page!

PAL Traders -

Palladium is the key element for the "Hydrogen economy", which is a ways off. Platinum is the more valuable mineral for the auto industry, especially since it is more efficient than Palladium, especially when acting as a catalyst for diesel fuels.

In this instance, Palladium, which is NOT in short supply. is along for the ride with the Platinum shortage, which is more real.

Turns out that Platinum mining in SA does not produce a lot of Palladium. See Jack Lifton at http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40500&phrase=

(His recent thoughts on Platinum are here: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40638)

In spite of all of this, there was and probably still is big money to be made trading the stocks, which illustrates that trading calls for a different set of skills than market and economic analysis.

proudPapa, I am on Rogers and they changed me to the new my.Yahoo format, which made my browser terribly slow. There was no way back, Rogers would not allow it. So, I lost my old yahoo account settings and had to recreate a new one with Yahoo, unlinked to Rogers, this one with the old (but fast) charts. Rogers gets another -- for that. They could not care less.

Now when I need to access webmail go straight to mail.yahoo.com and bypass all the Rogers Yahoo junk.

Meridith Whitney video referred to by geckojb @ 4:34
http://tinyurl.com/32dl6e

If this link doesn't work, just do a Google search for "cnbc video" and then search for "Whitney" on their on-site search engine.

Here's a public interest story.

A town council in the UK tore down a barn conversion because they didn't like it:

http://tinyurl.com/2rfvc4

One suggestion for the blog... automatically convert http:// links to tinyurl, or adjust layout to accomodate large links.

With all the cat converters getting stolen and costs rising, substitutes for platinum are probably going to be a driver for lower platinum prices in the future.

Here's an article from 1988 that drove the price of platinum down... even though the product wasn't available, and ford still uses platinum in their converters.

http://tinyurl.com/2edlqf

And this one from 1917!

http://tinyurl.com/25stwr

I would think that there is a lot more speculation in the platinum markets than in the gold market, and there's a lot of speculation in the gold markets right now...

Kitco has a good article on this and what the drivers are for demand. Monitoring the political situation with Russia and China could help capture price moves.

http://tinyurl.com/yr4rq6

With Belgrade's embassy on fire, I would think there would be further moves up in Platinum/Palladium tomorrow.

http://tinyurl.com/27mktb

http://tinyurl.com/yu8svp

Speaking of the Skydome (ahem, "Rogers Centre")

Cost: Approximately $600 million (Canadian; 1989) (taxpayer dollars + private developers)

went bankrupt. sold for $85 million (Canadian; 1998)

sold to the Blue Jays (Ted Rogers) for $25 million (Canadian; 2005)

Not a bad deal eh? Plus Ted's got the 4 corners (Dundas & Bay) wrapped up with his new student centre. Not bad for $15 million advertising donation... that's about 6 Superbowl commercials.

I have been on Rogers 'Wave' (hence the name) since it was $125/month. Service is great, as long as you don't have to deal with service. I went with Primus for my phone. Same thing... great service as long as you don't talk to them. Ditto Bell. Ditto Telus.

The new Yahoo Mail looks pretty good though, though the charts suck. The old mail blew up my browser too.

At least they didn't drill a hole in my house's foundation and flood our basement full of mud gel like a certain gas company. And then drill to run a gas line and fry my computer because of the dust.

I don't think poor customer service is limited to Ted's company...

Anyone looking at RCI.TO? Would this be a good Blackberry/RIMM play?

BCE still looks the strongest. How about that buyout?

http://tinyurl.com/ypb7lq

sold all this morning
SNDK,QCOM,GLW

I have open order to buy
SNDK,QCOM,GLW,INTC,DELL
If it hits my target it will be filled
also I was advise to buy OEYOD OEX option at $13 this morning
but I did not

PNP.TO up 10% today due to a 23% rise in Mega Uranium, one of their largest holdings.

Speaking of powerful Canadians (and apropos of nothing, I guess) Frank Giustra seems to be all over the press in ways I'd guess he'd rather not.

Oh, and I want to thank Meredith. Or rather, my modestly green, hopefully soon to be deep forest green, BSC Mar 90 calls I sold are thanking her. I'd just as soon close those out, what with the buyout rumours floating around and all. I think it's a good trade and the banks are so much weaker than they are letting on, but why take that kind of risk?

And lastly, after taking a quick look at the Marketwatch headlines every morning for months before catching the train, I have to say:

Is it time to just start fading the damn futures every morning at the open?

Besides the fact that the pre-open futures are obviously used to try to influence the market open (hey, PPT? that trade stopped working for you, OK?) they seem to be, more often than not, flat wrong.

Am I misreading? Does anyone with a dataset and programming platform care to try it out? Say, fade the opening futures trend at about 10 AM. Or even right at the open.

I wonder how that would look over the past three months?

I think you're right Mike. The bulk of my trades and profits are in the premkt and in the first approx. half hour of the open.

See Bill's gunslinger comment from yesterday.
Prices are where they want them.
Futures? When they were up before the open you know where it went. When they were at a record for gold today guess what happened?

It's kinda like the Cramer contrarian play.

craig- funny how 'standard' advice is to avoid trading the first thirty minutes, and never pre- and post...well-intentioned and probably valuable advice most of the time..but you're right->i've found some very nice entries/exits before the open the past year...

vinod- nice one-day gains...sometimes less (trading) is more...

seamus- thanks for the info re CAQ...in the process of looking into it, found a link to GBO:

"Citigroup Global Markets Group of Asian Currencies (CAQ: 10.75, -0.19, -1.73%) is a principal-protected note whose return is based on the performance of the South Korean won, Thai baht, Indian rupee, Taiwanese dollar and the Australian dollar. As these currencies rise (or fall) against the dollar, so does the price of CAQ. The major benefit of using the structured product over simply trading the currencies in the spot market is that at maturity, the note, now trading at $10.72, is protected to pay out at least $10 per share. So your downside is limited. One caveat is that the note comes due on April 28, 2008, meaning this particular security only has a few more months left before it matures. The full prospectus can be found here.

Merrill Lynch offers a similar security in the Principal Protected Global Currency Basket (GBO: 10.53, -0.05, -0.47%), which is based on a currency basket in which the Korean won, the Russian ruble, the Singapore dollar and the Chinese yuan each constitute 25%. This note too is principal-protected at $10 per share, meaning that even if the currencies plummet you'll be assured no less than $10 at expiration, which is Feb. 9, 2009. Interested investors should delve into the product's prospectus for more details."

The 2/2009 expiration extends the play time remaining on CAQ...

2nd, Seamus, As a heads up I would be careful with anything called a structured note and do lots of DD before you invest. If in fact this one works like the others I have ever seen, and I don't know if it does, I would take a pass.

Typically the majority of your investment is invested in a zero coupon bond backed by a bank, could be everbank or citi or who knows. Then a smaller piece is invested in derivatives that mimic the underlysing basket you are investing in. These are so complex I am not sure if anyone knows who is on the other side of the hedge.

Anyway, I could be wrong about this one but probably not.

geckojb- thanks for weighing in...

EEMTRADER- if by channel lines you're referring to a linear regression trendline with parallel "channel" lines at 2 standard deviations above and below, then i sorta get the idea...i can plot the trendline on Fidelity's ActivePro, but can't figure out how to draw in the upper/lower channel lines...

Hillary just blew Barack away....if it was a basketball game---75-40

Jaketh,
I thought so too but, CNN is calling it a draw. I'm a Canadian so my opinion isn't that important. I think the big difference is that Hilary has international experience with some 80 countries and she is committed to universal healthcare. I don't think that Obama has any international experience and his healthcare position has been politically positioned to not upset people. I could be wrong.

I find that days like today - where volatility picks up - the algos are in full force. They especially take advantage of the deep, liquidity rich, dark pools. Moab made a good point about the futures, as many do use it as a leading indicator...nevertheless I do enjoy trading the volatility, short term - it makes up for the slow boring days - and if you're quick and nimble money can be made. Do remember to cut your losses quickly as the market will not be so kind at times!!!

I think that the fear of the unknown is going to hurt the markets early in 2009 regardless who the new President is.

Fred,
Hillary, like her or not, knows the ground.
Barack aspires to know it.

Fred...
The broader question is, of course, can Hillary turn it around. I think the Kingmakers believe Barack can become a movement and Hillary cannot. Probably this intensifies interest in the next three states (good for the Dems) and places McCain in deep background. There is a huge audience for Barack's message (Toyota Dynasty)
"You asked for it, you got it."

2nd, geckojb

Thanks for the information, feedback and discussion

Yes, CAQ matures in April (mistakenly wrote March earlier) and I've been pleased with it as hedge. There is another very similar Citigroup Asian currency traded note CZJ (Amex), which matures on June 30, 2008. I believe (other than the maturity date) the only difference for CZJ is the Singapore dollar is substituted for the Australian dollar.

Both these notes were issued at par $10. I came across them trading below 10 about 2 years ago. Liked the idea hedging vs the USD. I chose CAQ because I liked the commodity based economy of Australia, CAQ had a more attractive price and if it mattered, preferred the shorter time frame. Checked some figures over this New Year’s and discovered the Indian rupee was the big winner of the basket, although recall all were pretty good.

Currencies can be very volatile and aren’t for everyone. They march to their own music and all kinds of geo-political events come into play. Before I picked up any shares, I obtained a prospectus (dated 11/1/2004). It took some digging and more than a few phone transfers to locate and obtain a copy.

Surprisingly, Citigroup prospectus was very good, laying out in simple language hypothetical examples if currencies gained, were flat or lost. One thing that caught my eye was a clear statement Citigroup hedging activity could result in a conflict of interest. They could bet against you. There’s more, but in the end, felt comfortable with the risk and the trade especially at a price around 9.30 (if memory serves me right) when I knew the principal protected amount and worst case payback was $10 with no interest. Luckily that doesn’t appear to be the case with two months remaining on the notes.

2nd, I’ll be looking at GBO realizing the USD is presently near its all time low and a lot of gain has already occurred. Have to figure how much more there will be in a year. I’d recommend a prospectus before entry because with these financial companies you can’t assume anything. Like the strong commodity base of the ruble . . . Putin steps down in March (working behind the scenes with his people in control) . . . will the dollar strengthened? . . . .Do like stability of Singapore . . . and then there’s China! Overall, think there’s more risk less reward in GBO today than CAQ 2 years ago, but worth keeping an eye on if any pullbacks.

This blog has an interesting take on Alliance-Atlantis, the Goldman Sachs/CanWest takeover deal, and public companies in Canada from someone in the film industry.

http://the-legion-of-decency.blogspot.com/

CanWest recently got CRTC approval for the takeover.

"Perhaps with the library now in the control of (depending how much you trust the diligence of the CRTC) CanWest or Goldman-Sachs, the next financial report on these titles will finally clarify many of my questions.

But I'm not confident in that.

You see, I wrote and produced another series that was in profit from Day One, and returned buckets of royalties to its writers for many years -- until CanWest started running it EIGHT TIMES A WEEK for THREE SOLID SEASONS.

And oddly enough, since that started, it hasn't earned another dime!

Not possible, I know, but this is Canada."

He also talks about the interview with Mr. Rogers.

Interesting take on Canadian culture...

Jaketh,
Let's forget the politics. Congratulations, you've just been hired to lead my country! Your deliverables include, get us out of a recession; eliminate a $400 billion deficit and achieve a balanced budget; end a war; increase government spending on social services, education and health care; don't increase taxes; chip away at a $9 trillion debt; rebuild international relationships; improve national security; change the culture of government and politics; fix the issue of illegal immigration; globally fight "radical islamic terrorism" and other duties as assigned. Oh, by the way ... could you get all that done in two and a half years because you'll need to go on the road and campaign to keep your job after that!!

I'm a lifelong Democrat and I won't vote for Hillary Clinton no matter who thinks what of a debate. Debates aren't a testing ground for Presidents anymore than the no child left behind tests are indicative of ability or a quality education.

I'm done with divisive politics and the only person more divisive in American politics than George Bush is Hillary Clinton.

I hope to disappoint Rush and deny him his divisive wish candidate. The only thing more consolidating to ultra-conservatives than the NY Times is Hillary Clinton.

If she were ready "Day One" (a plagerized statement I might add) then why don't we have universal healthcare? Her day one was a long time ago.

That and there is little difference between McCain and Clinton. They are both puppets on the same string, we just can't accuse her of schtupping a female lobbyist. They *both* let lobbyists screw US and they both voted for the war.

If your lawyer thoroughly vetted a contract that ended up giving an opponent of yours authority to spend you into bankruptcy and then denied it, would you return for more or would you give her (or him) the broom?

I would FIRE that attorney immediately and then seek reparation. She deserves the best the Fuller Brush Company can muster.

Craig:
I agree. Now, my friend, we have looked up the path and down the path: now, who shall lead?

Heh Craig,
Varadero is a lovely beach and the all inclusives are still quite reasonably priced. I just hope that the next President is one who refuses to talk to Cuba. (LOL)

Hmmm. From Colin Twiggs report tonight:
"I have never seen more senators express discontent with their jobs.... I think the major cause is that, deep down in our hearts, we have been accomplices to doing something terrible and unforgivable to this wonderful country. Deep down in our hearts, we know that we have bankrupted America and that we have given our children a legacy of bankruptcy... We have defrauded our country to get ourselves elected."

~ John Danforth, Republican senator from Missouri (1992).

Craig,
As a Missourian, I stand ready to make note of John Danforth's confessions of his many shortcomings. Like most folks, his attentions have become concentrated on his mistakes as he nears his end.
Regards,

So Fred, Canadians who can legally travel to Cuban resort beaches are hoping for status quo? :>) At least you get something for it!

Okay, back to our real mission.....LOL.

From CT:
"The Fed has cut the fed funds rate by two and a quarter percent since September 2007 and futures markets are anticipating a further half percent rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, on March 18. Financial markets are also being flooded with liquidity via the Fed's new term auction facility, in order to avert a decline in bank credit growth — which would plunge the economy into a recession."

"Unfortunately, one plus one always equals two. For every action taken, expect an equal and opposite reaction in the future. January consumer price figures already show an up-tick in measured inflation, with annual headline CPI growth of 4.3% and core CPI up 2.5%. The Fed is likely to face pressure later this year to raise rates in order to head off inflation. Financial markets may not be stable enough to absorb this — risking high inflation and low growth (commonly referred to as stagflation) last faced in the 1970s."

For the political junkies, don't forget about Edwards. Even though he is out, he can still throw his support behind one candidate or the other and play kingmaker. As much momentum as Obama has right now I would say that getting a nod from Edwards would seal the deal.

Zenob;
Edwards is top 3 clout. Romney is top 3 clout. Beware those who go peacefully with "suspended candidacies."

Via Kirk:

"One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: you can't go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance." - William Eckhardt

after numerous small gains that should have been large ones (RIG at 70, WGW at 2.07, PAL at 4.20, GLD at 62, NAK at 8.70, and more!), this really resonated with me.

Please do not do what I have done for the past year. Instead - LET YOUR WINNERS RIDE!

Good luck everyone...

the prices I listed above were buys...what would I have if I didn't sell to "take profits".

Jaketh, It appears to be part of the human condition, doesn't it?

Now that he isn't running for anything is when we can trust what he says I suppose, being a man of the cloth and all. But, he is a man and is imperfect as are we all. Some are just more imperfect than others. LOL!

My idea of leadership is brutal honesty and the chance to help those we hope to lead to understand why we represent their best interests.

Roosevelt's fireside chats are an excellent example. It's first knowing where to go and what to do when the bell rings and then educating everyone why we should all work together toward that goal.

What would have become of the U.S. without Roosevelt convincing our Grandparents that the draft was necessary? The vote for the draft instituted six months *before* Pearl Harbor passed by a single vote.

I looked up the average mortgage interest rates in Canada to see what happened after the the oil crisis in 1973 (stagflation). Rates increased every year from 9% in 1973 to 19% in 1982. Imagine today's mortgage interest rates doubling over the next ten years. That's a lot of foreclosures.

Flashback to 2000: Dick Cheney was in charge of the VP executive search for Bush. Danforth was one of the finalists. Cheney had publicly reclused himself from consideration.

One night, candidate Bush called him up to his hotel room. Danforth thought this was it, George W. Bush was going to offer him the VP position on the ticket. Afterall, he was the only one of the finalists left by this time. Cheney was there. No, he wasn't going get the VP nod. He left disappointed.

Bush soon announced Cheney as his VP choice.

Can't help but think if Danforth was VP some things would be different today, and if I had to guess, better.

Seamus: Danforth, however decorus, has always been inert.
From Missouri,

Bill,

Got rid of my Rogers cellphone. Got rid of my long distance plan. Got Skype ( free download ) and now calls with video are free anywhere in N.A. and a penny a minute anywhere on the planet with a connection. My wireless laptop is now my smartphone and I can make video calls from any hotspot, so why do I need the phone since I can call any land-line as well as computer? Goodbye Ted, the writing is on the wall for you and the telecos.

Craig,

Re: your posting above at 10:52 pm re John Danforth's "confession" of the fraudulent US governmental legacy of bankruptcy

Henry Liu renders a thoughtful and penetrating analysis its sources and implications:
"""
. . . There was a time in the past under industrial capitalism when in a class war between capitalists and workers, moderate inflation could help workers keep their jobs by keeping the economy expanding and make it easier for them to pay off their debts to capitalists. But nowadays, under finance capitalism, when capital comes mostly not from capitalists but from enforced savings held by worker pension funds, inflation robs workers of their retirement resources while stagflation lays them off from their current jobs.

Capital has been manipulated as a notional value on which derivative transactions are calculated and profit and loss are realized. Finance capitalism, through income disparity condoned by a supply-side ideology of keeping profit for the rich in the name of capital formation and letting the working poor be taken care of through trickling down from the rich, has constructed a financial infrastructure that channels profits to a few and assigns losses to the many. The inequity is mind-boggling. At least the capitalists of industrial capitalism used their own money. In finance capitalism, the retirement funds of workers are manipulated by financiers to exploit workers.

. . . The net result of the injurious effects of dollar hegemony is the emergence of anti-trade protectionism even within the US, the supposedly lead beneficiary of the Bretton Woods II regime, particularly the segment of the US population that has unevenly borne the pain of free trade. For the exporting economies, there are growing signs that political leaders are beginning to realize that export-led growth is not the panacea that neoliberal market fundamentalism has made it out to be. Exporting for dollars that cannot be invested at home has left all exporting economies starved for capital for domestic development, with serious disparity of income and wealth, and political instability resulting from unbalance development. While much of domestic politics in the exporting countries is distorted by uneven power held by special interests of the export sector, a collapse in global trade will shift the balance of political power back towards the domestic sector.

. . . The current crisis presents an opportunity for a catharsis to reform the greed-infected global economy away from senseless and wasteful competition, toward cooperative enterprise to rebuild a new world community based on human values, to achieve equality without conformity, with compassion for the less fortunate and respect for diversity. The wind of change is sweeping the world.
"""
--THE ROAD TO HYPERINFLATION: Inflation Targeting, Henry C. K. Liu, http://tinyurl.com/2gbhgt

2nd AVE: RE Fid ATP and channels..ATP is limited in the number of intrady data I think 10 days, and you are right it doesnt allow you to draw a parallel line with the LR, ..if you use another trading platform, and can use 40-60 days worth of 60 min intraday data....draw parallel line thru the pivot highs and lows and find a middle line..you can see price strength as it travels thru the upper and lower channels and impending trend change.

my schwab platform is not working right now for some reason or i ll give you an example with XLE.

Will double bottom in 10 year TB yield hold? Approaching 100d avg. Or trading range bound 3.5 to 4ish?

http://tinyurl.com/2xlbur

Referencing above URL: Note decline in 10 year yield is a perfect EW count down, 12345, meaning primary trend down. The latest uptrend must be an abc counter trend rally. TLT jumped today.

I would expect the secular trend reversal to happen after the Fed cuts to 2.0%, being effectively out of ammo, with a negative 2% real rate by their measure and a negative 10% by mine.

Any thoughts on shorting the 30yrs compared to the 10's? Or both?

Johojo:
How they do it. My brother works for a large well known NY based retailer.

Last year I was able to help him make selections for his 401K which returned 20% for him.
He has five choices for investing for his retirement in one of the broker dealers we all know well with the initials ML. :>)

A "stable" bond fund run by three bond brokers including PIMCO, the S&P 500, A small cap fund, an international fund, and the company stock.

No MM acct, no way to transfer funds to a traditional IRA, no way to allocate to commodities, ETF's, mutual funds, etc. No way to avoid losing money or to avoid being fully invested in "buy and hold".

How many Americans have "retirement accounts" with these idiotic limitations that prevent them from protecting themselves from ML or market downturns that essentially assure they will lose their retirement money? Probably millions.

I told him about the best he can do is to put it in the bond fund actively managed by PIMCO (hoping the "managers" keep it in short term bonds and treasuries) and to stop taking the Co. match (which he is losing anyway) and to establish a ROTH IRA with what he was putting into his "retirement" where he can invest in assets that will outperform or at least keep pace with inflation until we find something resembling a bottom and he can reallocate what is left when appropriate.

"Say you want a revolution? Well you know, we all want to change the world".

Morning Alert….Alert….Alert

Just last week Bill said this would happen:

Nymex raises margins as commodity prices surge

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Traders in the most high-flying commodities must now set aside more cash to cover potential losses, giving exchanges and brokers more cover if traders take big hits, but also possibly dampening those commodities' gains.
The New York Mercantile Exchange, the major U.S. market for metals and energy commodities, on Thursday raised margins for six key energy and metals futures, including copper, coal, gasoline and heating oil. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange took a similar action on platinum futures, which hit a record in New York Thursday.

http://tinyurl.com/yoz2ug

Hi,

Money management: closed my gold futures longs early this morning, thereby selling my greed to the market, at a comfortable 17% profit.

At this point I am expecting a retest of the top of the symmetrical triangle. If it holds, as expected, it will be a decent buy.

This does not change my faith that POG will still move higher before Spring seasonality kicks in.

Enjoy yor weekend.

Cheers,

re: GLD at 62, etc.

That's what metal is for. If you are going to buy GLD at 62 and hold it, buy bullion instead. Because it's not as easy as clicking Sell, you'll be less tempted to trade it. Face it: Gold may drop big, but you know down the road 950 will seem cheap. Buy metal to hold.

I still can't believe I have a sock drawer full of <13 silver. It seemed expensive back then.