KKR new search:

http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&ned=ca&q=kkr&btnG=Search+News

Well, today's bad news got off to a start with a steep drop in mortgage activity (no doubt caused by the sharp increase in the 10-year bond)

Then we got a hot CPI this morning and that really sent the futures reeling.

Next the housing starts numbers came in at the high end of the consensus -- ergo, builders are still adding too much inventory to an already over saturated market.

Expect another day of extreme volatility, people. And Bill, I couldn't agree more that these markets are especially difficult for anyone but active day traders. If you can't watch the tape, your best alternative is to use very tight stop orders.

Good morning all. The long bonds don't understand that the Helicpoter is just going to buzz in and do an emergency 300 point rate cut. The Treasury is going to issue special debt to cover your expense of holding dollars, thereby recapitalizing ALL banks before the third quarter of the year - when the huge recovery is going to start. Buy now, because the recovery has not been priced in yet, and all the best tradersa res setting up their clients for the second half of the year, when the recession that did not start will have been finished.

Bill,

found some more info about the Bank leak you mentioned, the main document in this link is in german....

any translators out there?

https://wikileaks.be/wiki/Bank_Julius_Baer_vs._Rudolf_Elmer_-_no_data_theft

craig- wife and i noticed for the majority of trades we have made->if we had waited "a little longer," gains would have been "twice as nice." this morning, that did not work, as i backed off from entries into QID/FXP at 52.07/89, and would probably be taking both off right now...

wary of a bear trap this morning and more inclined to buy if prices drop, but having missed the pre-market entry, going back to "waiting a little longer..."

ah found it,

entire transcript of the whistle blower in question from his Polygraph test pertaining to information leaked,

from a breif review this is much more than a simple matter of publishing bank records on a site, he is attempting to expose high level fraud and abuse at his bank,

the bank appears to be hiding behind "privacy" for its clients which may be concealing a possible crime.

https://wikileaks.be/wiki/Bank_Julius_Baer_Polygraph_test_of_Rudolf_Elmer

Wikileaks website re bank leaks, first amendment, etc.

http://88.80.13.160/

still long MSFT/CSCO/WGW and partial position in SNDK...flat o/w...looking for another entry into INTC/additions to SNDK...

Possible blow-off top in commodities reaching it's apogee. Looking into some rotation today away from commodities and into Yen and cash.

Critical level: Dow 12,100

blow-off top in commodities? DUG/SMN on the watchlist...

Will be watching TLT today to see if it breaks under and closes under 200 EMA support (thinking of TOG)

Have to unfortunately run out for awhile . . .returning later. Maybe SNDK will be put to me ;)

One small addition:

Price Target Lowered:

WFMI - $54 to $48 @ RBC

Out of FXP @ 91.5
Will probably stop out of SRS @ 116

Hi!

Re gold: what is happening is a textbook retest of the upper side of the symmetrical triangle, which by the way has already held.

This is bullish, so I expect gold to start its move up.

Inflation is a "non issue" when compared with the severity of the derivatives debacle. There is no way central banks will even think twice before pursuing hyperinflation, in their relentless attempt to achieve stagflation in substitution of the iminent depression.

Enjoy.

Cheers!

2nd: You mean like BOTH of us and FXP? That would have been a nice little profit.....

Barrel overheating again...
WMT @ 49.19
UXG 3.31
WGW @ 3.50 total luck on a market order!
Hang in there 2nd...it will go our way with patience!

still wary of a bear trap->DUG opened at 40.88, quickly hit a high 41.34...taking a shot here at 39.79...

I had a note waiting for me when I logged into Schwab this morning. Schwab customers can now received real time quotes from the Toronto exchange and execution in US$. Welcome to the 21st century.

Franc and Yen weak here....I know the TH's are negative but I bet we do alright with these two weak.

looking for a little intra-day rotation from commodities into technology...could pair QLD/DUG or SMH/DUG?

They should let their lawyer contact the regulators.....without relinquishing their fiduciary responsibility.

Unless they WANT to be an idiot. This guy may have an idiot wish.

Out of DBA and GCC. EEV and FXP have nice reversal from near lower band.

Watch the Bollinger bands; they are like paddles in a pong game.

Taking a few chips off in this "Casino élégant de Bernake".

craig- need to take it down some more and keep it there to fully load the trap...afternoon rally would be great...but mind you, this is just mindless musing...;)

If this is a trap they can trap me anytime!

Taking INTC, WGW, Dell, BRK/B off the table.
Gota shoot when they're fat and green.

craig- unless you're short right now, you're not the one getting trapped...

adding at SNDK at 24.93..

Whistleblower site reminds me of
http://www.everyonewhosanyone.com/

except he's publishing copies of cheques and banking info instead of contact information. Two wrongs don't make a right... :)

Anyone want a $150k/yr job implementing Basel in the Caymans?

http://tinyurl.com/yorfl3

Loooow volume.

Into QLD @ 69.8

I recently subscribed to the Business News Network Live Stream out of Canada [ http://www.bnn.ca/ ]. Accustomed to CNBC's "chatter" offerings I am tremendously pleased in BNN's reliably delivered consideration of business and investment considerations. BNN provides intelligent and informed adults discussing matters; in contrast, CNBC seems to be a channel of clowns and chorus girls pantomiming expertise.

More bank fraud:

Story On Credit Suisse

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/business/7252162.stm

Argus latest economic note:

U.S. industrial production increased 0.1% in January, following an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in December. Over the past 12 months, output at all of the nation’s plants and factories increased 2.3%. Economists frequently use this
monthly gauge as a proxy for overall economic activity because of the rich and close relationship it shares with movements in the quarterly GDP report. The production of consumer goods increased a vibrant 0.3% last month, while
business equipment production rose 0.4%. The big drags in the January report were mining (-1.8%) and construction (-1.1%). Nevertheless, we interpret this report as extremely positive since it is one of the five indicators that the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses in the determination of business cycle movements — and there is no sign that the economy is in recession with this latest reading.

Unless my eyes are playing tricks on me, it looks like 26.50 has gone from support to resistance for XLF. :-)

They must be cranking up production of widgets and $49 ipods for the coming big boom of consumerism from that whopping borrowed $600 "incentive".

This is a slow bleeding death from a paper cut that can't be stopped.

Anyone notice that apple price cut on nano's?
What's that about? LOL

Zenob, yesterday at February 19, 2008 11:20 PM

Interesting gold article.
http://tinyurl.com/2omv75

---------------
Yes interesting article by Prof Krassimir Petrov, have you every watched any of his lectures? I find them quite interesting, his latest is on structured finance, I've skimmed thru, about an hour, I plan to go back and review it in detail as time permits. Other video series on macroeconomics, business cycles and investment analysis.

I would recommend all the ones I've seen, most about an hour so watch em after hours or on the weekend.

http://tinyurl.com/2azf4a

Bill,

When you have the time, and considering that we seem to have several new Members to our community, I wonder if you could write a few lines about the merits of looking at price action across different timeframes, as a mechanism to offer traders a more "mature" view of the forest and the trees.

Thank you for your patience.

Cheers!

"Possible blow-off top in commodities reaching it's apogee. Looking into some rotation today away from commodities and into Yen and cash."

Aurator, sorry I just don't see it. If you look at the chart of XLE where do you see a blow-off top?

http://tinyurl.com/3c5vtb

Re: Whistle blowing

Lets say you have a full awareness of illegal activity at the bank which you work and you have a position of responsiblity regarding these activities.

Moreover, there are increasing problems with the off balance sheet commercial paper in which the bank deals and the blatant money laundering going on in order to salvage the situation.

The whole thing can collapse and people carrying these responsibilities will be charged with wrongdoing, even though they may have been attempting to point out the folly. This is no different than say, the trader at the SDC with fiduciary responsiblity who is being hanged with irregular trading activity.

Its probably a last recourse to whistleblow if there is jail time involved. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

Yes it is different.

The responsibility is of confidentiality.
Losses are not their responsibility unless fraud is involoved, and even they they cannot simply disregard the rights of their clients the laws are there to protect.

Denny: Long Term CRB Index

http://tinyurl.com/ytgmk3

Credit to Frank Barbera

BTW, when you reveal client losses, gains, buys, sells it insider trading and if you participate, you are about to visit Martha.

Minyanville article I suspect will play well here.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=15979

If you watch the market close enough, tick by tick everyday, you notice things. They start to add up and you can’t avoid the feeling that the markets are tainted, manipulated. If not, they have gotten really, really stupid.

I mention these things from time to time, the most interesting being that every rally is futures led. Buyers are not buying stocks because they like the fundamentals, buyers are just buying futures because they want in the market. Or do they even know what they want?

Another was yesterday. The Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, is closed through a transparent auction process. Nearly everyday this auction process is to buy in a large way. Sellers do fill, but the buying normally outweighs the selling. Yesterday was especially interesting: a buy order for a million shares of IWM popped into the auction cue very early, around an hour before the close. Not too many noticed, however, and by the time the auction completed the closing rotation, the IWM popped to a closing price of 70.73, a huge $0.50 higher than where you could buy it one second before and where you could buy it one second after.

I ask you, why would any fiduciary enter an order like this other than to signal to the market that it is going up? Why would any fiduciary want to pay an artificially high price for his investors? Logic dictates that this is either manipulation by a non-economic entity (infinite capital) or someone really, really stupid.

I can’t rule out the latter, but after a while you would think fiduciaries like this would be out of a job. Regardless. It tells us one thing: there is very little information in the market right now… there is only volatility. That volatility is a function of the ever decreasing liquidity from deflationary pressures (the lower the liquidity, the higher the volatility) and the fact that this market has now become a “news” market. There is so much happening, mainly from the stain of imbalances and too much debt, market participants change their minds with every new piece of news and every rumor.

From the Hank Paulson show on TV every morning explaining to investors that “all is contained” and “improving” and that this is “just a liquidity issue” (completely wrong, it is a solvency issue) to government bailouts and cajoling, markets are being influenced more and more in the short run by government. This only serves to exacerbate the unwinding when markets uncoil.

A really great interactive map from the "Resource Stock Guide"

http://www.resourcestockguide.com/home_page.php?drc=0&dlc=0&hpc=38

Hi,

Regarding moral issues:

Your job is worth nothing when compared to your conscious, your self esteem, and your freedom.

These are just different value categories.

So, there is no question: all the problems you become acquanted with in your work should be immediately communicated to the propper entities, in the propper form, with full disclosure?

Is there a doubt?

Cash: worthless. You can always make more.

A good night sleep: priceless. You will never live that night again.

I heard on SEE and BE SOLD TV that
Japan raised margin minimums on PLAT
Is it true?
Maybe gold, etc in coming weeks ?
"Free markets"

Re: Margin requirements

Margin requirements are so restrictive in the precious metals sector, you can either go in with no margin at all and strict cash, or take on futures contracts, where you are facing commercial banks which are overwhelmingly short on the whole sector.

Maromatics nails it.
It takes a lifetime to build a reputation and literally seconds to destroy it.

This guy had a feduciary responsibility.
That is, he had a responsibility to BOTH sides of this equation, both his employer and the client.

If I'm the client I would be rendering a fine education in why this is not acceptable, and maybe retire off the proceeds.

Sleep is difficult surrounded by inhabitants of the "Group W bench" in one of our fine penitentiaries. See Arlo's "Thanksgiving Day Massacre".

Further to the discussion on margin requirements in the precious metals, the overwhelming majority of buyers are therefore investor acquistions, (not jewellery buyers as the disinfo would have you believe) set in against commercial banks with absolutely no reserves, using other people's money to short precious metals indefinitely.

imo, trouble in the futures market is brewing and there is virtually zero coverage in the media or the press or any blogs anywhere.

Perhaps the 'lynch pin' of the whole off balance sheet derivative markets and money laudering is based on shorting the precious metals.

Aurator, okay. Let's hope it's a blow-off, lol. Otherwise there's going to be some hurtin' going on in the supermarket. I guess you'd have to separate that out from the energy complex, which, who knows, could do well going forward, if supply constraints like the recent ones impinge at all. At any rate, it doesn't look to me like a blow-off top there, though I have to give it to you on the CRB chart.

Looks like someone is trying to save the XLF. A lot of buying just kicked in to shove it back up over the line.

Denny: I think Oil will be higher by year end, and my data sources seem to be "agreeing" on $130 WTIC. However the recent price does not seem to be driven by supply/demand but rather speculative money. When the hedgies decide to pull the plug, they all turn like a school of fish and the price plummets. I'm trying to be on the correct side of that with some DUG. Also looks like a chance to buy puts on UNG is not too far off.

I am a believer in peak oil theory and follow Matt Simmons whever possible. When (if) there is a correction, I will be loading up on selected oil infrastructure and exploration plays.

Since I think a big turn down is only 1 - 2 weeks (max) away, I'm taking a defensive posture.

I'm reminded of a discussion I had with my auto mechanic who I've known since I was 11 years old.

We were talking money (what else?) and he jokingly told me he would do anything for money.
I told him I thought he probably had limits and told him about my wife channel surfing and coming across a show about X-rated movies where she paused to hear how gay porn stars (some of whom were straight) make 10X what the straight "stars" make. She asked if I would do that for that kind of money, to which of course I said, "No honey, I don't think so."

I relayed this limitation to my friend who replied (paraphrased here as it's a family blog),
"No that's definitely my limit. Once you are known as an oc blucker there is no going back. You will always be known as one." (Not that there's anything wrong with that for our gay readers...you aren't in the movies are you?)

But....
This leaker will always be one. Bummer for him there's no going back.

Hi,

NOW, FRANSIX nailed it right on.

The incredible spikes we are seeing in metals originate in short covering, which in turn is generated by the fact that the institutions which are short these PMs are the SAME institutions which have NEGATIVE reserves.

The only metal which is yet to blow off in a short cover spiral is gold.

By the way: today's move on gold confirmed the breakout of the symmetrical triangle, and therefore I expect a test and probable breakout of the highs (947 I think) in the next few days.

Cheers mates!

macromatics,

Give a little leeway for seasonality. I believe this should be borne out in the next couple of weeks. Silver is the seasonally strong metal here (same with platinum) so it continues to make gains on gold.

Fransix,

True, we are "late in the season", but I still expect a last up spike ot of pure speculative / technical / short covering issues, before we recess for spring.

m,

I am of the same opinion.

:-)

Nice.

Hope Mr. Market agrees with us.

Of all the food commodities it looks to me that sugar is vastly under prices....does anyone have an idea on how to take advantage of this situation? Seems to me every market in food, metals and energy takes "its turn". I think it might be time for sugar to sweeten up.....any suggested plays?

Sugar: IPSU is down after a factory explosion. No clear direction IMHO.

XLF seems to be making a case for breaking out from a base

MACD is about to turn...

anythoughts on this?

Dr Cosa: I'm in uyg at the breakout...waited until 26.60.

2nd: if we get a run up in financials and broker dealers I'm thinking of shorting IAI.

Looks like a gold short squeeze might be in play as discussed here as well.

ALOHA !!

The BABY does not lie ... This is reality. This is where "real wealth" resides. Always has ... always will!

Link: http://www.mii.org/images/baby.pdf

Craig - Do you believe there's such a thing as a quadruple top? Or does GFI go higher from here?

RUMOR

European CB cuts rates.?

they're springing the bear trap->taking partial profits on SNDK at 25.49...

craig,

this chart is tough to decipher when you take into account the almost daily news that is negative for financials.

with bonds coming off you have to wonder if that cash will be deployed at least in part back into financials as so many people still seem to believe these are great "safe" dividend paying stocks.

And just when I was celebrating XLF falling below it's support. Oh well, we'll see who has the last laugh on these banks. :-)

I took profits OG.

Hard to tell from a chart but this is where it's been stalling out lately so I'm out for now.

I can always wait for another entry.
currently RSI in the 40's, W%R in the 40's.
Likely it follows the general market and it looks like DJIA is slowing/running out.

But then I'm the first to admit I get out too soon much of the time. I think it's worse for me to wait until my profits disappear!

GFI - Out @ 14.11. Probably way too soon.....again. Thanks 2nd for the "heads up" last Friday.

UNG parabolic climb with rapidly declining volume. Recipe for a short/put.

Dr. Cosa, OG, 2nd: I took profits on UYG, GLD, WGW. A very good day.

IMO no point in holding for a reversal.

Agree, chart is so-so.

GFI now 14.23; should've followed 2nd's new "two minutes" rule.

I see GFI runs on...

Think about it, how many times does this happen and we get a premarket entry back in the 13's?

More than I can count. This AM it was 13.77

Hard to complain.

Gold popping now, good call maromatics.

I was "hoping" for a tightening of bollinger bands in both SPX and Gold, leading to a big move in gold mining shares when bands expand. That setup may not occur.

Disclosure: Still holding UXG.

Re: Gold, Bollinger Bands

"That setup may not occur."

imo, when silver advances against gold, then this is an indicator of speculative cash moving back into the precious metals sector, not some kind of predisposal to credit markets.

Note that the IMF and central banks around the world don't have any silver or platinum in storage.

Gold tapping the Nitrous button... $934.

Buying Minefinders MFN here as it is oversold on daily/weekly timeframes and resting on long-term trendline.

Bill Ackman is mucking around in the bond insurers and he is short gold according to Bloomberg, hence the financials up, gold stalling.

That's the noise/rumor.

S&P UPGRADES GARMIN SHARES TO STRONG BUY FROM BUY, ON VALUATION

GRMN down 8.73% smooth move S&P

Shorting gold would be a hedge for Ackman's other positions.

don't know if we've seen the best the bulls can pull off for today, but taking all longs off the table now...
still holding DUG...thinking about adding QID/FXP/SMN

FED'S POOLE: US ECONOMY WILL SKIRT RECESSION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS GENERALLY STABLE, FED POLICY SHOULDN'T FOCUS ON JUST ONE ISSUE
- Food, energy may be setting inflation expectations.
- Excessive stimulus may be counter-productive.
- Inflation harder to reverse than unemployment.
- Must be careful not to accomodate increased inflation.
- A substantial increase in inflation would promise a larger recession later.

SMN at 38.85...
adding DUG at 39.30...
all longs off...

ECU.to and GOG.v

Update drilling results at San Diego, Mexico property. Sounds good but not much affect on the SP at present, initial results from 2 of 15 holes.

http://tinyurl.com/3cdn62

go34: Apparently he came up with a plan to split the bond insurers and submitted it to the pertinent authorities, circulated the plan publically. I'm sure he has no plan to profit from it......LOL!

shoulda waited another 2 minutes myself...

GFI -

The South African rand has been dropping like a stone lately. This reduces GFI's costs while its revenues are growing in dollars per ounce. Margin expansion. Looks very cheap both fundamentally and technically.

tough call here on FXP-> but scaling in at 87.15...

just think it's safer shorting commodities right now than technology or shanghai...

JAN 30 FOMC MINUTES: SAW NEED FOR RELATIVELY LOW INTEREST FOR A TIME
- Raises 2008 jobless forecast to 5.2-5.3% v 4.89% previous,
- GDP growth at 1.3-2%
- Fed official ssee growth risk to the downside
- Expects core inflation to moderate over the next 2 years

*JAN 30 FOMC MINUTES:

- recent inflation data 'disappointing'
- Saw chance of big rate cuts on Jan meeting conference call, but no taken action, Jan 22 rate cut spurred by weak economy, market strains

2nd
Becareful on shorting oil [DUG].. Because of the the death of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus earlier this month the war drums are beating loud in the Middle East. President Ahmadinejad's recent speeches are seen as an orchestrated campaign to raise Middle East temperatures up to the climax of an Iranian attack on Israel.

Note this interesting statement...

"His lastest speech was delivered on the last day of the Islamic month of Muharem, during which Muslims are prohibited from embarking on attacks. The month of Safar when it is permitted to strike enemies of Islam begins Thursday, Feb. 21. "

out of FXP at 87.67...

Go34,

Thanks for your kind comment.

Cheers mate,

FXP- gun shy...

That's about as reliable as basing the future on the Mayan calendar. Noise spread by speculators to push prices. Total hogwash.

Notice it's always about Islam, of which the average investor/american is more than ignorant.
Never about something verifiable with common sense....

Think we go down from here...look at the MOMO names..BIDU..GOOG..POT..since FOMc

Doubled EEV based on Bollinger band technique with RSI turn and MACD histogram reversal.

Hi,

Ok, so POG skyrockets.

Houston, we have a go.

I don't know where they are getting their info, but my fidelity news screen is saying that the sudden bump in the markets was automated buying that kicked in.

What would have been the technical issue that a computer could isolate to automatically buy?

I would think it would need to be something we all could see if in fact, it was automated buying.

isaiah- thanks for the heads up...also think as commodity prices go up, oil/gas producers end up with lower profits...

And it happens after the Fed releases minutes.....

There is no shortage of noise.

Dammit, I was just trying to catch a few winks here....now I have to pay attention.

SKF/QID small bite. XLF macd histo sloping down, RSI/W%R (50's)/Stoch along for the ride. I'm hanging with the macd histo continuing south.

Same for DJIA but more gradual.

Phhht. So much for that tripe....

2nd...I was out for some berries and a picinic basket with Boo Boo and my foot got caught....

Dang...this is something else..oil over $100, lousy CPI and the tape moves up and breadth is positive.wow...

Scaling/adding to QID.

Aurator, Re: UNG

"UNG parabolic climb with rapidly declining volume. Recipe for a short/put."

What time-frame are you observing this on?

I also notice that resistance occurred at 44 in Aug-07 and again in Nov-07. If it gets through this time...

Craig

I found the info about possible war tensions in the Middle East on a non finanical web site in Israel called DEBKA.

"That's about as reliable as basing the future on the Mayan calendar. Noise spread by speculators to push prices. Total hogwash"

Not so to those who take their spiritual beliefs serious. Osama bin Laden was heavily criticized by radical arm of Isalm for not following the Koran precisely for his 911 attack.

Notice it's always about Islam, of which the average investor/american is more than ignorant.

This is part true... the average American is ignorant at the real threat which [radical] Isalm is to the western world.

Okay, I know nothing about options, but I'm trying to learn. Can anyone tell me what it means when suddenly, people start piling into a call this far from expiration? The stock is going straight up. COuld they be buying the lower call option, then turning around and selling it higher? But there would have to be demand, obviously. Could it be some kind of offset or protection, or a close of a short trade? Really mystifying on no news.

Bad news on top of more bad news and the market rallies. I should have unloaded at the morning high on SKF and it looks like I could have jumped back in this afternoon at nearly the same basis of 107. Crazy.

FXP- let's try again at 85 and change...

Isaiah,
no more than the average Muslim underestimates the threat from Christians.

Very strange. Yesterday was a perfect setup to rally and there was no follow through. Today we have a litany of bad news and a rally. I believe the notion that the markets are being led by futures interventionists since the crowd seems to be trading reactively.

TimG: Here is one of the analysis windows I keep in a tab. This is where I observed the UNG divergence. I'm betting it won't break out higher, but if Oil and Nat Gas do, they have a long way to run. Then I'll be running for cover.

http://tinyurl.com/2ueapa

Ooops, sorry, radical Christians with a military 12 times the size of the next five western nations combined... Need to narrow that down...

I wouldn't say that "radical islam" is the real threat, the real threat is fundamentalism in general. The brand of fundamentalism isn't all that important. The important point is that once somebody's mind has been broken by too much religion and they've reached the point where they are willing to give their lives for their religion, well, they are more then likely ready to give mine or yours as well.

TimG: For some reason the chart pulls up GLD. Pilot error. Just type in UNG.

Try radical capitalism, a market that continually ignores bad news. Sounds like the little man behind the curtain to me ..

Very nice Zenob. Agreed.

The sane should always remember....this is a CHOICE.

I just checked the markets during lunch. What a crock. This is why it is impossible for anyone who doesn't watch the tape all day to have any success. Wild, volatile swings without any basis in market or economic fundamentals.

I'd wager every major organized religion has some vocal, intolerant minority prone to terrorism, except (perhaps?) Bhuddism / Taoism, and anything else where tolerance is central.

Too bad tolerance isn't a stronger theme in the more popular religions. Or human nature.

On that note, something I can be extremely prejudicial about: SKF @ 109.1

Colin Twiggs has repeatedly opined that crossing up or down through the Dow 12400 shifted momentum (my words, not his) in the direction of the cross. Now that the 12400 level has been breached so many times, does it still have significance?

The psychology of mobs....any group that thinks it's view is the right is self supporting.

Religious warring . . .only one I can think of that has no history with that are Tibetan Bhuddists.

DEBKA has been implicated in the recent past as a channel for the release of baseless propaganda... a conduit for the promotion of covert agendas as promulgated by the Israeli state....

Of course you could say the same about the relationship between the White HOuse and most major US news sources too...hehe..

ANyway, be wary of hidden agendas.

adding to DUG at 38.64...

DJIA is also contending with downtrend line.

New closing highs in gold will bring in fresh mo mos

IL- i agree completely with your opinion of the market...best we can do in this environment is to try trading the swings->i just try to buy positions on my watchlist when they get sold, and sell them when they get bought...note that you need not catch the bottom (i rarely do)...

Dow 12,400 is the centerline of a symetrical triangle that will be resolved very soon. Trend going in is up. If it breaks out higher, that an EW b-c ending correction, and afterwards we have the big slide: 3,iii,c,2. (3rd of a 3rd, according to McHugh) That triggers nested H&S and we head for 9700.

Re: Fanaticism

The people who poisoned that Japanese subway with gas were Bhuddists and Shintoists, I believe.

Re: Gold and deflated CPI charts

My apologies for posting so much about the precious metals sector, I feel its a little too much. But the fundamentals are of such importance to the sector here, that they can't be ignored. I am also a big fan of CPI-deflated charts, and found this one today:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40616

vinod- betting you added to SNDK below 25 and/or exited near 25.72...

I'm glad none of us is afflicted with any of these issues.....:>)

Hi Everyone...

Took a few days off..Went down to Daytona to get some Vitamin D from the Sun..I have not seen it much here in Chicago...

Oh, also went to the Daytona 500..

Well back to work..And added some DXD to my account and SKF...Say, am I bearish?

Another mining licence issued in Mongolia- OGX-X

Looks like Khan Resources (kri-x) is starting to turn a corner - up %11 today after OGX news.

Some insider buying for kri last week. Might be time to put this one on radar screen again.

Small position in kri...looking to add for long-term. IMO political risk for Mogolia is over done.

Sorry -that was QGX-X

Player wins the morning round...1/2 stack on Banker for the close...(note the "1/2")...

Alright OG....2nd has the 2 min rule..I'm instituting the GFI 6 hour rule.

Insert explative here.

hard to say how many trapped bears are getting shaken out here...anyone caught buying the opening gaps in QID/DUG/SMN/FXP->would guess >50% have been washed out...

basketguy..glad to see you back..thisis one wild and wooly tape...check out GS tape today...sheesh...

Oil at record close, Gold to $940, and the Dow and Home Builders strengthen. TLT is up.

Talk about dancing on the rim of the volcano.

how about a 2 day rule on FXP? LOL

New all time high for POG.

craig- believe me, there are expletives flying all over the place today...

No doubt!

never enough when it's going your way, right...who was it that noted random entries+proper money mgmt is all it takes for a winning trade? would work well in this environment...

Aurator, I posted this late last night:

I'm not Mr. TA, but are we not seeing a triangle pattern in the S&P not unlike the 2 we have seen in gold the past few weeks?

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/7526/snptrianglent0.jpg

Based on the real rate of interest continuing to go down, would that mean the POG will continue to go up?

Doesn't sound like rocket science to me.

I'm kicking myself for ditching CEF-A.

If you're a bit superstitious...

full moon + satellite shootdown + fedspeak = POG/Oil increases

There is definitely a triangle (flag) in the major averages and it is going to break one way or the other within days. These tend to break in the direction of the trend.

Hmmm. My screen telling me the last trade on GFI was 13.96? Grrrr.

Gotta give a big hand to Maromatics.
Gold at 947.+/- a new record.

Nice work!

Oh, and Fransix too!

Major pats on the back guys.

I always look forward to maro's detailed and thoughtful postings. Thanks!

Craig,

We are a team.

The Cara trading team, aka the Caraistas.

Cheers!

Thanks fatty.

:-)

Feels good to be apreciated.

Snaked a few SKF AH @ 108.21

Well teammates, you have been rocking!
Very impressive.

If anyone would like some entertainment tonight, it's Wed. so Peter Schiff will do an internet broadcast at 8PM Eastern. With a record POG it should be spirited. I always enjoy listening. (No account or affiliation.)

http://tinyurl.com/22ugds

ITB - Home Consruction ETF up 4.3% today.

Watching gold...Taking it's last dance..?

Someone wants to print that 1000.00...

Don't know if we will get there...Just know I will be selling my junior miners into strength on the way up...

I am an avid web "surfer" and enjoy reading alot of different economic news. I have to say that never have I found the news so dire. From mortgage apps being down huge, to GMAC closing 75% of their offices, to the major credit issues Mish talks about, it appears to me a major economic "adjustment" is dead ahead. I'm not sure how serious it will be, but I have a feeling is will be bad. Historically bad. I couldn't agree more with Mish when he says that the credit markets are deteriorating quickly, but that the equity markets don't know it yet....but will.

2 different banks... same blurb from a news story... spooky.

Credit Suisse -
"Another analyst at a U.S. bank in London saw the situation differently, however.

"The spooky bit is the mismarking, and the impression that the company is not on top of things," the analyst said."

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/305102

BMO:

"Part of the problem is that they're just writing this off, writing that off,"said Chyanne Fyckes, chief investment manager at Stone Asset Management.

"I think if they had any idea about how bad it was, they would just go ahead and write it off and be done with it. But they're not doing that this time because they don't know what's going on and that's what I find very disconcerting."

http://tinyurl.com/2dk7hw

With the staggering amounts of money & trading data moving around, and abnormal price fluctuations causing models to fail, why are we surprised that the banks are having troubles keeping track of valuations?

People are spooked?
http://tinyurl.com/2bgun9

Re Volatility and intra day swings

Some have been around longer than others, I started trading / investing for myself in Dec 1999 and immediately had trial by fire experience, was mostly in tech at the time.

Anyway to put things in perspective I put together a daily chart going back to 1985 for the $INDU, $SPX and $COMPQ. Now I can't plot the daily price swing range directly, so I've used the PPO oscillator (MACD in percent). Now instead of using the normal 12,26 ema price averages I change them to 1,2, ie the 1 day ema is todays price, the 2 day ema is half way between today and yesterday and the output is the percent difference, thus things are still a little smoothed but you can see the trend and history. I also added a bollinger band width overlay to the oscillator to help see the historical highs and lows.

Note I've hidden the stock price as it just clouds the issue, so without looking at the time scale see if you can pick out the 87 crash or the Tech bubble.

If you think its volatile now check out some of the eventful periods of the past, you ain't seen nothing yet, I'm sure Bill's got some stories.

http://tinyurl.com/yvcgkb

Sniper/Bill

RE: Khan Resources

Sniper, thanks for the heads up on KRI and QGX/Mongolia news. I'm glad to see that the Mongolian government is making some progress in permitting projects.

If anyone that plans to attend PDAC and join Bill to speak with Martin Quick of Khan resources, please ask about Khan's relationship with Laramide Resources.

Laramide did a cash/share swap with Khan back in September '07 that left Laramide with 12% ownership of Khan Resources. Laramide also said at that time that it would consider buying of more KRI if prices remained attractive. I am wondering where Khan sees this relationship going in the future.

gold will eventually double today's price.

When? Who knows...

Re: Marking To Market

They are attempting to unwind the unwind-able, while keeping the futures market wide open.

You can't get margin for shorting a stock unless you put up a 150% margin. At least, that was a while ago, I don't know if things have changed. At the very least, its very discouraging to obtain margin through your retail broker.

Its the same for precious metals, where you can't obtain a margin account unless you put up more margin than the amount you are borrowing.

So either you are playing with hard earned cash and going into precious metals contracts or a bet on shorting with real money, or you are heading into the futures market for short term leveraged returns. Forex is the same.

DR Horton up 8.1%, ITB Home Consruction ETF up 4.3% today - a trend?

Platinum + Palladium stocks?

Just wondering if opportunity exists here ....
Anyone familiar with Beartooth Platinum (BTP-V)?

Bill,

I have been doing some ongoing research in LAM.TO, which I will continue to do. They are planning to spin-off there substantial gold holdings into a separate entity which I believe may help unlock some value here. Amongst their equity holdings are substantial positions in AQI.TO, SIM.TO, and KRI.TO.

Seems to me a gold spin-off would leave Laramide as a smaller/leaner uranium focused development company. I like that both Khan and Laramide have large, later-stage uranium projects. A JV or some other arrangement with Khan would seem a natural combination and help to diversify political risk for both entities involved - we shall see.

Eagerly awaiting Jock's thunder!

Stanford eliminates tuition for students whose families earn less than $100,000 a year, and waives room and board fees for students whose families earn less than $60,000 a year...

http://tinyurl.com/2ycr2f

added qcom 200 @42.00
and sndk 200 @ 25.00
during the day

Here is something I learn today

Trading room has bet 5 to 10 people
And why there are so many trading rooms?

I learn that there are trading room for Bond, stock, different type of bond,
Some are dedicated to particular mutual fund manager etc

I can not go there and chit-chat with people there
I can go there if I have call to fix hardware or software problem
Also there is a log outside to sign when someone enter and exit

One of my friends told me today that we will go under 12000 under soon

vinod- thought so...you're a natural...

GRMN swung almost 4 standard deviations today! Did Cramer fall onto his panel and hit the "broker out window" and "buy buy buy" buttons at the same time? I don't know the term for a reversal like that, at least that could be published here.

Pimco's Bill Gross and company sued by a hedge fund that claims that the giant bond fund management company squeezed them out of millions in June 2005 in the Chicago futures trading pits. The claim is that Pimco held an oversized position in the June contracts and would not roll over into the September contract thereby causing short traders to cover to the higher priced September contract. Gross claims that he did not roll to September because he would have been penelized due to the lack of September contracts available. Personally, I like to hear of shorts getting it put to them. Although Pimco claims that the allegations have no merit, the presiding judge has allowed the case to go forward as a class action lawsuit with a high powered attorney known to handle these high profile cases.

Notice Cara's "care " Bears had little luck turning the dial and hitting a long trade today.

Gave a couple very early yesterday like FDG, try on FLS tomorrow or on any future dip.

The time to change teams for the next little probably happened today.

Good luck all.

Bill that logo look is great. Very impressed and much better than some of the original brighter mockups.

shanghai appears to be breaking away from the pack and headed down...although i've seen many second half reversals in this index..

Bill,

IMHO, it could use a palm tree somewhere but it does look great.

Vinod,
You bought them at exactly $42? Wow that's pretty much the low for the day! Was that in the premarket or during the regular session?
Well done!
YYZ

Volatility and churn

Yes Bill I agree much of the high daily swings are due to short term algo program daytrading with huge amounts of buying and selling power.

The chart below is a 23 yr $INDU chart showing the change in daily volume over the years, buy and hold is gone, churn is in. Makes it much harder for us little guys.

http://tinyurl.com/343mz9

Bill the new logo looks great.

Also glad to see it now looks the same in both FireFox and IE.

MichaelD- takes me a couple of days to key in on new posters/ideas->i can see FDG and VLNC both worked out well...not to mention your long-side counterpoint last weekend...thank you...

yes, switch hitting can be tough if you're long/short at the same time...i can sometimes spot a bear trap and hopefully side-step it, but my medium-term bias is still down, which makes it hard to hang on to longs for the entire (counter-trend) move up...

will be paying more attention to your future posts ;)

No one has replied to my post yesterday regarding the possibility of evaluating the "truthfulness" of XLF moves by observing the ABX indices. Is it really so unimportant? The ABX indices get updated daily, and they went down yesterday and today, some of them breaking their long-term support level. So I increased my short position in XLF today, making a bet that bad news will result from ABX indices going down, especially given the fact that XLF has increased today and gave me a better entry. Let's see how this concept plays out...

David- i recall reading your comments yesterday, but for some reason i had the impression the ABX (asset-backed securities) indexes were updated weekly rather than daily...in any case, glad to hear they update daily, and reposting the link for SKF/UYG players here:

http://www.markit.com/information/products/abx.html

Anyone know where i can find relatively recent sector weighting data for the s&p?

vinod

Nice size positioning as well as timely selections. Good luck!

Thinking of T-O-G Monitoring TLT . . .200 day EMA support held up today and TLT bounced back up. Will have to see where it goes from here before shorting and making possible other entries in funds previously mentioned here.

Quasi, nice chart. Says it all.

David: RE:ABX indices

I have not responded to your post as you are testing a concept with your money. Are you testing a trading system or proving a concept to yourself?

I see interesting rationalizations for trading here, and some with no rationale, and some use fundamentals to rationalize a volatile trading environment. Since these are really self directed portofios....and no life posting of results and posting of strategies...others' opinion is somewhat irrelevant.

RE: your concept..intermediate bonds from lehman has a -0.93 correlation, and CFC has a 0.95 correlation for the past 6 months with XLF..you can test with live data, though how you determine entry , exit, stop, and profit taking is unclear.

So if you are using your after tax money to prove a point..BRAVO..just remmber you are proving a point to yourself, not necessary raking in a profit. If whatever money you toss out is R&D money bravo for you..

Some of us buy boats, some of us trade, others test concepts...its our money..so I wish you well..and may shorting XLF as a directinal correlation to the credit swap indices based on multiple bonds bring you much fortune and good health.

Is this a Kaimu-ism?

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. ... This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.(1967)...Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world....(May, 1999) " Alan Greenspan

Progress report of the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of Société Générale - http://tinyurl.com/2ulcce

Chart of the Day: Jerome Kerviel's P&L - http://tinyurl.com/2t3ab4

Hi Bill,

Regarding the logo is there a reason why the horizontal bar is yellow? I googeled "yellow" and it does say that yellow and blue are complements. I was thinking that maybe the "C" would be better yellow.
Also a comment about the remaining blue bars. Do you think it would be better to have them symmetrical color wise? For example, the bars above and below the first "A" to be a light blue and then get progressively darker until the horizontal bar which will be a dark blue.
I hope I do not sound critical. Just my opinion.
Thank you

ALOHA !!

Telestar3d ... No its an Alanism! I dare Alan Greenspan to come onto this blog and tell us he has no gold and would never buy gold!

Alan if you are out there COME IN FROM THE COLD ... man!!! Step into the warmth of your true passion once again ... Come back to your past and revel in those "golden" words you once spoke so eloquently!

ALOHA !!

This is a private company based in Ghana, West Africa by the name of Goknet Mining. Here is a link to my article they published entitled, "MICRO MINING-A Review Of The Junior Exploration Profit Model". This article was also published by GATA at their subscriber website the LeMetropole Cafe. The two featured companies in my article was PMI GOLD(PMV.V) and GOLDER ASSOCIATES(a private engineering company founded in Toronto). PMI GOLD is now within weeks of a pre-feasability study to go into production at their Kobi project.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/ys68fy

ABOUT GOKNET PROJECTS
Ashanti II Deep Gold Project

Our current project covers a 50 km length of the Asankrangwa Gold Belt in southwest Ghana - equivalent to the strike length of the Carlin Gold Belt in Nevada. The properties are well positioned between the producing Ashanti and Sefwi (Bibiani) Gold Belts. Within a 120 km radius of the project, other companies have developed some 65 million ounces of gold reserves, with over 50 million ounces of gold produced to date. The project area lies at the intersection of major, deep seated structures
There are areas with significant current and historical artisanal mining.

Mr. Market speaks to "Ben"

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/02/no-tree-grows-to-sky-benocchio.html

To all my friend
First thanks for your advice

I brought QCOM at 42 and since I do not have luxury to be online all the time during trading
I put order at fix price good still cancel
And I do adjust when I have time and base on price when I check on market
I have open contract on following

Buy 200 GLW @ 22.00
Buy 200 INTC @ 19.00
Buy SNDK @ 24.50

I do not short sell and made some money in

ZQN APR 90 PUT (ZQN) AMAZON.COM INC APR 90 (100 SHS) 04/04/2008 6.0000 $10.55 $6,317.40 $5,147.50 $1169.90
Cash
02/14/2008 3.0000 $15.75 $4,714.69 $4,405.25 $309.44
Cash
Subtotal: $11032.09 $9552.75 $1479.34


Listed is one of my trades in AMZONE
I have made much trade in this, when Am zone goes high I buy the ZQNPR
It has made me over 5k
Beside this I do not do option unless first hare give me suggestion

vinod

Next time I will use Ms Word and correct my spelling before post
I am still trying to get better at language

Bill,
In regards to the logo, I see on my screen the darkest spoke is pointing in a downward direction diagonally and to the right of the C. This is emphasized more to my eye due to the lightness of the yellow bar on the left side. So at first glance it gives me the impression of a downward movement.
If the darkest spoke was on the other side it would give me an impression of an upward movement as in a graph. Otherwise it looks great.
Cheers

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

CSCO - to Buy @ Citigroup
GFI - to Buy @ UBS
GRMN - to Outperform @ Robert W. Baird

Downgrade:

TGT - to Sell @ Citigroup

Target Price Lowered:

GRMN - $115 to $89 @ Lehman Bros.

Target Price Raised:

WMT - $53 to $57 @ Citigroup

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great day.

vinod- all good trades...might consider selling your longs into this morning's strength...

GRMN is buying back 5m shares... which is around 20% of yesterday's market cap according to Yahoo.

Is this in the best interest of investors and what should this do to the price of GRMN?

My guess is an interim oversold rebound. Not sure afterwards... but if GPS becomes a commodity instead of a tech gadget and prices continue to drop...

What happens to brand names in commodity markets?

P/E looks resonable for its industry right now.