The door to Iraq's oil opens wide

Big Oil deals in Iraq form the core of Bush's strategy of creating a legacy for the US in the Middle East that may run for decades. Big Oil needs the assurance of a near-permanent US military presence in Iraq. And Bush is determined to provide that assurance. He is convinced that no serious American politician would defy the wishes of Big Oil. By logic, therefore, Bush is creating a historical legacy of an Iraq that will remain under American control for decades to come.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JB16Ak08.html

US's Iraq oil grab is a done deal

"By 2010 we will need [a further] 50 million barrels a day. The Middle East, with two-thirds of the oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize lies." - US Vice President Dick Cheney, then Halliburton chief executive officer, London, autumn 1999

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IB28Ak01.html

ToG ideas...

http://tinyurl.com/2crz4c
https://www.quickbase.com/db/8xxcx953?a=q&qid=25
https://www.quickbase.com/db/8xxcx953?a=q&qid=24
http://tinyurl.com/yw2e28

jk484, no surprise at all. And so more young men and women will be deceived into thinking they are fighting there to "keep America safe."

The immensity of the crimes of Bush/Cheney is outrageous. And not a single candidate for President, save Kucinich, spoke to the necessity of bringing these evil men to justice.

That's why, even with all the excitement over Obama's "refreshing appeal", I can't help feeling it will be business as usual after January 20th.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, February 15, 2008

8:30 AM ET.
Jan Import Prices (expected +0.5%; previous 0%)

8:30 AM ET.
Feb NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (expected 6.5; previous 9.03)

9:00 AM ET.
Dec Treasury Intl Capital Flows, in dollars
Net Foreign Buys of long-term US Securities (previous -79.7B)

9:15 AM ET.
Jan Industrial Production
Industrial Production (expected +0.1%; previous 0%)
Capacity Utilization (expected 81.4; previous 81.4)

10:00 AM ET.
Feb Reuters/Univ. Of Michigan Index, prelim
Sentiment Index End month (previous 78.4)
Sentiment Index Mid Month (expected 75; previous 80.5)

1400/1900
Bond markets close early ahead of Presidents Day holiday

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York just announced that its Empire State Manufacturing Index showed business conditions deteriorated considerably in February. The index fell to -11.7, its first reading below zero in almost three years. The expected number was 6.5 and the previous number was 9.03.

Empire State survey falls below 0 for first time since '05:

http://tinyurl.com/2638ua

Per Econoday, the expected range was .87-11.00, with the consensus at 5.75.

Will more evidence of a weakening economy increase likelihood of faster and steeper drop in Fed rates?

Shorting TLT may or may not be possible, I haven't checked to see, but for newbies to shorting, one needs to be aware that the shorter is responsible for paying any dividends that are declared on the borrowed stock.

TLT is currently paying 4.26% annualized and makes distributions usually at the beginning of each month. There is also interest to be paid by the shorter to the broker on the margin used.

As Norm used to say, always put your safety glasses on and know your tools. Good luck!

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Downgrade:

WFMI - to Underweight @ Lehman Bros.

Target Price Raised:

ECA - $71 to $73 @ Lehman Bros.
WMT - $54 to $55 @ Lehman Bros.

_________________________________________________

Have a great weekend.

U.S. Jan. import prices rise 1.7% on petroleum

http://tinyurl.com/22d2sc

Again, using Econoday estimates, the range was 0-.9% and the consensus was .5%.

So there we have it, folks. News that reminds that inflation is still a serious problem and the economy is heading for (or already in) a recession.

Watching the Senate Committees yesterday got me thinking.....what if Obama tapped Spitzer as VP?
Just an off the cuff question for the financially savvy. I couldn't help but think that would shake up business as usual.

On Bond insurers: NY Insurance Commissioner Dinallo is pushing for splitting the muni biz from mortgages, which appears to have some momentum as it would tend to raise the muni portion slighty from the mud backed by deep pockets like Warren Buffett and Wilbur Ross.

Do you get the feeling they are cutting the mortgage insurance lifeboat from the raft to drift and die while they save the municipals as the last resort? It feels to me like a retreat to save what can be saved.

spot -

Good points, however you can by the opportunity and not the obligation of TLT shares.

Good afternoon!

It appears that POG has broken out of 910 spot.

A retest of 910 in early NY trading may still come, as usualy the POG falls in the US morning trading session.

Traders will now look for a close above 920 spot, which projects POG for a test of the recent highs on its way to 950, 970, 1.000.

FYI I remain long gold, and at this point I see no reason to take profits before we see where the breakout will take us.

Have a good one.

Good morning from Cape Town

When is the right time to buy stocks? Unfortunately there is no straightforward answer, irrespective of the amount of analysis thrown at the question. This blog post steps aside from the timing issue by simply considering what the chances would be of losing/making money on the stock market over different holding periods. The results make for interesting reading.

The link to the post is: http://tinyurl.com/2ftgr2

craig- QID/FXP disconnect? not sure, but picked up some FXP at 91.05 pre-market...

I have problem signing in to Q-chart. Is there other Q-chart user out there that has the same
problem. Please let me know.

spot - TLT very shortable, as least through IB. Other short candidates, listed here by others several days ago, are CXE and VGM.

Re. FXP premarket, many China equities up premarket, many NASDAQ down. Who knows?

looking at UYG/MSFT for trades..

Thanks 2nd. I held the FXP overnight but was so small as to not matter much, looking to add. Made up with QID and SKF....and hopefully GSK will get the Buffett lift. :>)

I see SNDK coming back to mid-upper 25's PM.

Closed end municipal bond funds EIM, BKK and PZC might also be considered for shorts; read ToG links by aces at 8:22, especially http://tinyurl.com/2crz4c

jiggs- exactly...not sure if i'm missing news out of china, but i don't see any...

Bill,
E-Book what a brilliant idea! To me this is what your blog is already. With e-book the possibilites are endless and you could update and expand additional material at your leisure.
"Bill Cara updates are ready for your computer!"
Cheers

Hey...Bill;

Does the book delay mean we will get a big fat rebate on our lay away pre-payment plan or should we just be happy with the profits from WGI and CSCO just to mention a scant few of your little tid-bits............> ;=)

Hey thanx again for the little world you've created here ...Your sage advice is much welcomed in a vast sea of talking heads.........

We lurkers are paying attention
to the Carista's musings..

Cheers....DB

More snow in the Driveway this AM.....

craig- you must have been at COST fighting the war on terrier when i posted the AH sale on FXP...;)

Spot, this newbie who has never shorted thanks you for the details re: dividends owed on shorted stock.

looking to reopen those 'LT' positions in CSCO/SNDK/INTC if a steep sell-off ensues...

speaking of paying dividends when shorting TLT, i can recall taking monthly hits on RRPIX for that very reason when playing the rising rates trade a few years back...

Yeah, I was not at my screen and read it after AH closed....that's the breaks. You win some...

Gemmastar,

All short trades are inherently more risky because, in principle, in the long run the market tends to revert to an ascending mean, and therefore, in theory, losses in short positions can be virtually unlimited.

Therefore, short trades are inherently more suitable to narrower timeframes, and aim to benefit from certain downswings in prices.

This implies that a short position, if used as a speculative tool, is inherently more instable than a long position.

Nevertheless, it is a valuable tool to have in your trading toolbox.

Traders in general prefer to short for speculative reasons when they already feel more comfortable trading in general, and have developed a good sense for entry / exit points.

A good way to start to "get the feel" for it is to do some paper trades, or to just start shorting small ammounts.

Another way to develop that feeling is by being a regular member of this community, where you will find that some of the members are true masters in short trades, like for example 2nd Ave, who masters the art of shorting the Qs.

Cheers,

FXP- adding at 90.06

There is a discussion of substitute payments in lieu of dividends on shorted stocks here:

http://www.traderstatus.com/shortsale.htm

Note in particular the IRS tax implications depending on length short position was open, etc., and whether you are the person shorting the stock or the person whose stock was sold short by someone else. For example, payments received in lieu of dividends are not eligible for the special lower tax rate applicable to dividend income.

entering FXP..

FXP- adding at 89.73...

GFI at 13.32...

Great posts on shorting TLT - I'm learning too especially about the tax provisions.

One item not discussed so far is the fact that we are at Options Expiry for more than just stocks. My guess is that TLT is up this morning because with Monday being a Holiday, new Puts on Interest Rates are being bought bets are being made that Bonds will rise accordingly.

Gold bets on "going up" are probably being rolled forward.

I say "guess" because I don't know anything for sure since I passed the age of 17.

"I say "guess" because I don't know anything for sure since I passed the age of 17."

spot- every time i talk to my 16 year old daughter i need to remind myself of that...

..and then we all go on to graduate school, where we learn more and more about less and less until we know everything about nothing...LOL

Does anyone here have a short list of top quality junior golds I can start tracking? This is one area I have ignored and usually read over when posted in here but would like to start tracking 5 or so names.

TIA.

2nd;
I often tell my teens that they have the advantage on me:
"I'm not young enough anymore to know everything."
Quizzical looks, because they're not old enough to understand what I mean.

SNDK at 25.89..

jaketh- it's difficult biting my tongue sometimes knowing how much time/effort i could save them if they were to 'listen,' but i guess we to go back to that time in our own lives to realize they need to learn things on their own...

Dear Africa,
We're sending the Great White Hunter for a visit.
Make him comfortable....keep him for a while....well, forever if you please.

Prieur!

I thought you were supposed to be in Buenos Aires
today?

And it's Good Afternoon from Knysna!

"in the long run the market tends to revert to an ascending mean," if one wishes to explore a paper that questions this popular belief, I think members here would greatly benefit from reading "Irrational Optimism". You can download the paper here: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=476981

What is particularly interesting about the article is what happened in the Japanese market which was hit with massive devaluation of their real estate--a specter that we may face. Anyway, it's worth reading and opening one's mind to an alternative perspective. As we know a balanced perspective helps keep us attuned to risks.

Leisa, in the past you have posted links to Coxe's Friday calls. You have today's by chance?

Thanks.

Mr. Coxe's conference call will probably be up soon:

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp

shorting TLT: go long RRPIX, no load, no fee, no holding period minimum, but its not an ETF you can only buy and sell at the end of the day, but since TLT trades all day you know what price you will get by watching TLT.

2nd, They regain sanity around 28. Good luck!

the Grandich bounce !

His free newsletter is released at 7:15AM today recommending TEM.V - Target, a uranium explorer.

Now, 10:50AM, it's up 40%.

For all you know, he's out of it, or half out by now; but those who just bought in are less likely to exit smiling !

WGI
Western goldfield fans, ceo on BNN at 11:30 today.

So much for my big GSK deal. Falling like a rock and stopped out with a small gain. Now below my initial buy point.

WB doesn't turn everything to gold.

I'm thinking of starting "Craig's kick in the huevos list". (A new type of Craig's list) Top of the list?
Roger Rhiney of Scottrade where I still hold one acct. I'd add the FedEx CEO Smith for Bill. And the guy that did typekey. Jaketh...it's a guy, a woman would have made a decent platform, so you can't accuse me of sexism. :>)

Example of RSI bearish divergence at resistance:

FXI@$148, 10/30/60 timeframes

Great Article from the AAtimes. To this end, any suggestions for how someone could invest in Turkey to take advantage of the coming energy boom that should help their economy grow?

lakeaustin: TKF or TKC

Stopped out of the March 30 yr bond contract with a small gain. Looking for a re-entry.

Sold PNRA March 40 calls.

thanks, I am new to posting and just officially signed in, been lurking for 6 months or so. This is by far the best site for learning. I owe everyone who contributes a great deal. Thanks.

re-entered smaller shot at GSK @43.60

Bob Hoye in a weekly audio comment:

http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php/mediaplayer/778

jk484 - amazing article on cheney and iraq oil law!

I searched NY Times and googlenews for recent coverage of this - NADA ! -

If this guy is right, Cheney's achieved his objective in Iraq HIS way - in the shadows! - Mission accomplished!

That is the nature of the VP. The headpeice distracts while the VP moves in his shadow.

Shall I add him my list? Me thinks so. That guy cussing at him in New Orleans had it right.

Back from an early morning task . . .

Craig . . . GSK hurt by morning report of pneumonia deaths
http://tinyurl.com/2v3lbn

WGW FWIW, mutuals buying WGW. Institutional ownership up to 17.8% from 1% last time I checked.
http://tinyurl.com/ytpv23
(disclosure--long)

RRPIX gross expense ratio 1.46%

RYJUX gross expense ratio 4.97%

CFC seems to defy investing logic.
Why would a company so tangled in the subprime lies come back from their sub $4.50 equity price a month ago to trade up again today near $7.00?
The people in power just make me shake my head sometimes.
Holding etfc again, but I could sell anytime. If nothing else I've learned in the last few years...don't create any attachment to any equity, period.
Might place a bid on ABK for a dead cat bounce if they continue down into this afternoon.

8:52 AM ET) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Struggling lender Countrywide Financial Corp.said Friday it had mortgage loan funding of $22 billion in January, down 6% from a month prior and 41% a year earlier. The lender's operational results for January showed daily loan applications rose $1.1 billion to $2.6 billion for the month, but were still down 6.4% from January 2007. Delinquencies and foreclosures also continued to rise, with delinquencies up to 7.47% from 7.27% and foreclosures growing to 1.48% from 1.44% a month earlier.

Bigwad,
Sorry it took me so long to get back to you but we had a late Valentine's night last night. I got the tickets directly through Airtran back in September. Airtran always has cheap fares out of Rochester if you buy them far enough in advance.

When I don't fly Airtran I use orbitz to find flights. They usually seem to have the best price since they're owned by three or four airlines.

Hope this helps.

Rob.

Adding GFI and SNDK 13.16/25.50

Western Goldfields
Oliphant says>> 2.8 million ounces at mesquite
cash costs 350-375, generate 60 million in free cash flow per year, strategy focus on North ASmerican growth, all costs US..profit goes to bottom line. Gold hedged to pay for mine, 400,000 at 800 an once, He says 6 analyst average price target 4.75-6.00..He says if the right thing to do is sell the compnay he will..but goal is not to sell but to be a consolidator in the small gold sector.

closing FXP EEV

Seamus - FYI...there's more to the expense story on RYJUX. It's actually much lower:

Total expense ratio is as of fiscal year ended 3/31/07. Total expense ratio figure includes estimated short interest as an expense of 3.61% for Investor-shares, 3.61% for Advisor Class, 3.61% for A-shares and 3.61% for C-shares. If these costs had been treated as transaction
costs or capital items rather than as expenses, the expense ratio would have equaled 1.36% for Investor, 1.61% for A-shares, 2.36% for C-Class and 1.86% for Advisor.

Hoofa!

Since some of the old chart posting sites like Mycharts are dead, it took me a while to figure out where to put this.

This is in regards to a question yesterday on who uses OBV as a part of the signals they watch.

As a purely Futures trader (after years of watching huge numbers of stocks on four monitors and getting wiggy from it - I only trade the S&P futures now).

I use horizontal support/resistance and trendlines on the OBV to verify potential trades. Often I will get a signal from RSI/Stoch/Demand-Index that is not confirmed by OBV....and since this whole trading bidness is about risk/reward - I may or may not require OBV to confirm.

If one is playing an extreme oversold/overbought, then OBV may not confirm until the trend changes, but often I'll find that it is marking a divergence with price movement....if I get that same divergence on RSI and Stoch, I'll enter with a partial number of contracts.

Here is a marked up Screen of what I'm talking about (note the red vertical lines indicating signals for long/short)

[URL=http://img406.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trendlineszj2.jpg][IMG]http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/1104/trendlineszj2.th.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

Well ok.....ahem.

That linky didn't work.
Trying something new.

Opened positions in SMN, FXP, EEV based on the chart patterns of the individual shares plus those of the indicies. Ready to pull trigger on DXD. Looked at calls on SDS. Long Yen, short Euro.

OK - figured it out:

OBV trendlines:
http://img406.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trendlineszj2.jpg

FGIC *wants* t be split. Doesn't this mean that the rest of the company (actually, what is known as FGIC) is dead then? I have a hard time understanding these deals. How can a company walk away from debt like that? Who is left holding the bag (the non muni junk that they insure)?

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- FGIC Corp., the bond insurer stripped of its Aaa rating by Moody's Investors Service, asked to be split in two to protect the municipal bonds it covers, according to the New York Insurance Department.

It's as I suspected...they are retreating to a defensible position and cutting the losers adrift to die.

When insolvent what do you do? You file bankruptcy and go to court where they save what can be saved.

The writing is on the wall.

TLT seems to be the bond ETF with the most open interest and trading volume in it's options.

For Feb, March, and June there are way more puts selling than calls.

I don't know if all that volume is the smart money, protection, or going to expire worthless.

But if you do want to short bonds but don't want to be on the hook for the interest TLT puts look good.

Rob.

Rob,
Thanks for your air tickets info. I passed it on to the wife in hopes she can cut the airfare down a little. Don't need them until April but she is getting itchy to get them bought this week if possible.
Thanks again. And have a safe vacation.

If FGIC gets it's wish and the same thing happens with the other bond insurers then everyone holding the junk instruments they insure will have to mark them at their true value instead of their insured value.

That should provide the necessary shock to get the TOTG going if it really happens.

Rob.

Re: non-muni junk paper

Municipal and state pension funds own a lot of it.

Thanks Bigwad, you do the same!

Rob.

SNCR:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SNCR

Just wondering if anyone follow /has an opinion on this stock.

RE: jk484 posting yesterday of the Department of Commerce's decision to discontinue the Economic Indicators website:

Since I'm not much of a poster (or a trader, for that matter) here (more of a lurker and learner) I decided to do a little compiling.

Below are all of the links on the Economic Indicators website. My own small contribution for the greater good of this blog.....


http://www.usa.gov/

Freedom Of Information Act:
https://www.esa.doc.gov/foia.cfm

U.S. Office of Budget:
http://tinyurl.com/2y2cph

Economic and Statistics Administration:
https://www.esa.doc.gov/

U.S. Department Of Commerce:
http://www.commerce.gov/

U.S. Dept Of Commerce/Bureau of Economic Analysis:
http://www.bea.gov/

****************************************************************

2008 Economic Release Calendar (pdf file on the site)
http://www.economicindicators.gov/

advance monthly sales retail trade & food:
http://tinyurl.com/2q8vrt

advance report on durable goods:
http://tinyurl.com/2a84cf

construction spending:
http://tinyurl.com/2b9p2a

gross domestic product:
http://tinyurl.com/2d5zdv

manufacturers shipments, inventories and orders M3:
http://tinyurl.com/2a84cf

manufacturing and trade - inventories and sales:
http://tinyurl.com/2tos62

monthly and annual wholesale trade:
http://tinyurl.com/3xgsdv

new resedential contruction:
http://tinyurl.com/yy3jzu

new resedential sales:
http://tinyurl.com/bp7jt

personal income and outlays:
http://tinyurl.com/29zpvm

quarterly financial report (u.s. mfg, mining and trade)
http://tinyurl.com/2ea4tx

quarterly services survey:
http://tinyurl.com/37k6z5

quarterly retail e-commerce sales:
http://tinyurl.com/ywgdl8

u.s. international trade in goods and services:
http://tinyurl.com/yq8ubl

u.s. international transactions:
http://tinyurl.com/27kg3b

ALOHA !!

Back last year I posted here about the IMF losing money bleeding red ink! If you look at some of the EU members they have been selling their gold to prop up their bottom lines that are also bleeding red ink. I love here now a Morgan Stanley analysts finally puts 1+1 together and the real truth comes out about the IMF and the rest of the Western world. If you export your real wealth manufacturing to the Emerging BRIC countries then you accept handing over control of monetary and economic engines. China and all of Asia know that fiat currencies eventually fail. What better revenge than trading worthless US Dollars for real wealth "gold and silver"? Thanks to the artifical suppression of the POG by Western central banks, expecially the US FED, we are dishoarding our gold supplies to China and the BRICs for record low prices. Yes, you heard me right ... RECORD LOW PRICES ... If you adjust for inflation the POG should be at $2300USD to equal the 1980 highs. Based on that measure $900USD is cheap!

What is happening here is that the Western central banks and their IMF are showing just how useless they really are! If they are not careful, which they are not ... they will lose all CONFIDENCE! I have posted here before what happens to fiat currencies when CONFIDENCE is gone. At that point the "R" word turns into an eevn bigger crisis ... a monetary crisis!

READ ON:
Fading the IMF
By Adrian Ash
The Rude Awakening

February 14, 2008

The gold price now hovers near all-time record highs. Whereas the International Monetary Fund (IMF) finds itself short of $400 million per year. Can you guess what comes next?

That's right -- the IMF unloads some of its gold.

Will these sales weigh on the gold market? We think not. In fact, whenever the IMF or the major central banks in the West start selling gold, individual investors should be buying it. At least that's the lesson of history.

"The IMF is rich if it wants to be," says Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley, recommending IMF gold sales just before the idea was agreed by leaders of the world's top seven economies on Feb. 9. IMF gold -- the third-largest hoard
after the American and German government gold reserves -- is now worth around $92 billion, tripling in value since the start of this decade. And if you were spending $1 billion a year but only bringing in $600 million, as the IMF is today, wouldn't you want to sell a little of your 3,217 tonnes of gold bullion?

"The current gold price means a flow of income can be ensured," said the head of the IMF's steering committee, Italian finance minister Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa. It's the simple solution, agreed leaders of the G7 wealthy nations in Tokyo. But will IMF gold sales happen? And would it matter to the gold market anyway?

Kaimu writes: "I have posted here before what happens to fiat currencies when CONFIDENCE is gone. At that point the "R" word turns into an even bigger crisis."

Yeah, the R looses it's legs and becomes a D.

The market's internals have again started to deteriorate--the number of strong stocks has collapsed and the number of weak stocks is expanding--so price risk is very high.

The scenario we are watching for: if the market's internals continue to weaken, then we believe it will only take another week or two before the averages break below their previous lows. Another big push down could then finally turn our sentiment and price-based indicators positive and we would turn bullish--probably at month-end into early March at the earliest.

Kaimu -

I have read that first the IMF gold sales must be approved by the US Congress, which has an effective veto.

2nd, if the sales happpen they would be direct to central banks - outside the public markets.

SO, seemingly no direct downward pressure on gold prices - but one HELL of an indication that the countries now accumulating wealth in the world at a breakneck pace would rather hold gold than US treasuries!

That sounds like rather a BUY signal to me !

Seamus said, “RYJUX gross expense ratio 4.97%.”

FYI, this number includes the interest payout for the US Long Bond that the fund must pay. Rydex web sites states total expense ratio of .96% the phone rep states 1.36% with respect to H-shares class.

SNCR, this stock is interesting here, but the tech tape is really weak.

Long SNCR

Our 11 o'clock correction has kicked in for Friday in the precious metals, so we'll probably see a lower close today.

Next week will not be so great for gold or silver, but that being said, silver will continue to make some gains.

The conclusion I would draw against a hot silver market is that the paradigm of the gold/silver ratio only declining as the credit bubble expands is probably based on an inference drawn out of the advance of silver during 1998, prior to the nasdaq bust.

Silver probably advanced on the heels of a collapsing gold market due to the Bre-X scandal, as that market could go unaffected and continue to advance, not necessarily because the yield curve is steepening, or as an indicator of credit markets.(note that a rumoured discovery in Columbia last November is gaining traction even in this blog. The immediate facts are missing, I suppose you'll have Barrick in the mix 'inspecting' the cores. People seem to want large discoveries in hot climates, much as they would prefer to retire in temperate zones.)

The gold/silver ratio itself has many technical indicators breaking down, so it will serve as our reference point, and as a departure point for analyzing the silver/gold ratio, its inversion.

My conclusion is that silver will continue to advance against gold, much as it did in Q1, 2006. It would all depend on the futures market in the precious metals sector, that money can no longer be made in the grains and the base metals will set up an advance in the silver and gold.

Another technical indicator which is more reliable is Jim Sinclair insisting that retail investors hang on to their shares through thick and thin, because 'promised' returns 'just like 1979' because 'he was there' is the best indicator that we are nearing a fairly serious runup.

Geckojb, sorry see you already covered the RYJUX story.

gecko & telestar3d correct, it included the interest payout. Thx for clarification.

Thanks to Fingerlakes for the Coxe link.

basic rundown in two sentences...

Global food crisis happening/coming. Negative for stock markets of industrialized world.

He said the commodity stocks need to replace your high quality stocks as your core.

SNDK: A bit more at 25.26

Selling SNDK March 25 puts here

BSC - anyone know why this stock is up rel to a probe and a down tape?

Eemtrader, BSC may be in play.

MGM:
Q1: Why is MGM trading at 66 when MGM and Dubai World offer to buy apr 15 million shares at $80

Q2: Why is MGM buying their shares at $80 when they can buy from the market much cheaper.

Added a small position at 66.26

Telestar3d: Ah ....oki

BSC:
Bloomberg radio reported earler today about BSC being up on buyout rumor.

EEMTRADER,

hope it helps:

02/15/08

10:03am [BSC] Bear Stearns Companies Inc Ticks higher on takeover rumor
- Heavy call buying noted, Feb 85 calls are trading at $0.20, which expire today.

01:11pm [BSC] Bear Stearns Companies Inc CNBC's Gasparino discusses the rumors on Bear Stearns today
- says chatter he has heard is Citic may seek to take a majority stake

Okay, Seamus, I'm not savvy in options....

Are you betting SNDK goes below 25 or taking profits because it's close to your put price?
Could you splain to this simpleton?

I'd like to thank whomever notched Gold and Silver lower at about noon. That was the impetus I needed to take another big bite.

Craig

Sold 10 SNDK Mar 25 puts @ 1.60 (SWQQE)

I receive $1600 now.

If puts "put" to me @ 25, my actual cost is 25 minus $1.60 or an actual cost basis of $23.40.

If not in 35 days (expiration), I pocket the $1600 minus transaction cost.

I'm confortable with it either way. Owning @ 23.60 cost basis I like L/T.

May look to sell some more puts later depending on prices.

Hope this helps.

How about these failed Muni Auctions?

From Bloomberg

http://tinyurl.com/33bw9y

"Auctions began stumbling three weeks ago when banks couldn't drum up enough demand for auction rate bonds sold by borrowers, including Georgetown University and Nevada Power. Since then, auctions have failed for frequent and well-known borrowers, such as Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and New York state's Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

``We're hearing it's a general reaction to the auction market,'' said Marlene Zurack, senior vice president for New York City's Health and Hospitals Corp., whose auction yesterday of $64.9 million of bonds failed. ``The truth is our credit is good, our ratings are good, our bond insurer is unscathed, and it still happened.''

The waning strength of some bond insurers has caused investors to trim holdings of debt backed by companies such as Ambac Financial Group Inc.'s Ambac Assurance Corp., concerned that it may be difficult to sell such debt should insurers' problems worsen. That has hurt borrowers such as the Port Authority, whose auction debt soared to 20 percent on Feb. 12 from 4.3 percent a week ago even though there is little risk of default.

Local governments are obliged to pay the high rates until either the auctions start attracting more buyers or they modify the bonds to some other kind of variable-rate debt or a fixed interest rate."

So, now even "super-safe" investments aren't so super safe anymore. I wonder how people feel that are holding large amounts of Muni bonds. I would think people would start dumping them and holding cash to get another 20% deal like the Port Authority of New York had to issue.

Either way it looks like services will have to be cut or maybe retirement packages will have to be cut because municipalities, at least in the Northeast, will have a very hard time raising taxes to make up the shortfall.

Rob.

Craig Of course, I could also cover "buy to close" if I wanted at a later time prior to expiration, but that isn't my plan.

Puts on IYT are looking good, as the price breaks the 9dEMA, confirmed by the MACD and RSI patterns. I have a small position.

Added test baloon puts on CCJ and bought some DUG.

About ready to sit back for a long weekend.
Best wishes to all!!

Craig--typo correction--symbol is SWQOE

Seamus,
Selling puts on SNDK seems like a great idea. I'm going for the less risky ones though, the march 22.50's. I'll sell three for 2.10 minus trading costs and if they get put to me my basis will be around 21.80.

Rob.

Bullhunter: condolances on the death of your friend and the circumstances of it.

Mr. Cara: I have no problem waiting longer for a hard cover book. In this case I prefer it to an ebook version. Ebook retention is much more fleeting and can be destroyed with a hard drive crash etc. A hard cover I can pass on to my children to read.

Still holding SKF and SRS I picked up on Jan 30. Was underwater early but ahead almost 10% now.

Aurator:

RE: Gold entry..what trading rules..investing guidelines were you using? Just trying to learn from the wise and experienced here...from yesterdays post...

Rather than try and estimate correct support and resistance levels I often just use the "turn at the Bollinger bands" as my buy or sell signals. To buy the MACD and RSI trends need to confirm. Standard two sigma Bollinger bands mean the price will remain between the bands 95% of the time. Price will often "hug the band" for a while before releasing, and if it punches through, it usually is a significant event

Not seeing a turn of the BB and MACD and RSI pointing down?

Thank You Seamus. I'm taking this long weekend to figure this out.

Do you (or any community member) know a good book on this topic? I feel kinda stupid here....

I can see I need this strategy.

With respect to RYJUX here is how Rydex responds.

Per our conversation, below is some language we use in talking about the “expense ratio” for Inverse Government Long Bond.

It is an accounting rule/law that we have to state our short interest as an expense. The actual expense ratios for the fund vary by share class (see below). The client does not pay the short interest. It is built into the price of the NAV along with the interest we are earning from the repos we are invested in.

I have also attached some language that is on our website in regards to the stated expense of Inverse Government Long Bond.

Expense ratios are for the fiscal year ended 3/31/2007. Total expense ratio includes estimated short interest as an expense of 3.61%. If costs had been treated as a transaction rather than as an expense, the expense ratio would have been 1.36% for investor class, 1.61% for A-class, 1.86% for Advisor class shares and 2.36% for C-class shares. Total annual operating expenses vary by share class. See the prospectus for information on the fees and expenses that apply to each share class. Performance shown reflects maximum sales charges or contingent deferred sales charges (CDSC) as applicable. Class A-shares have a maximum sales charge of 4.75%. Class C-shares have a maximum CDSC of 1% for shares redeemed within 12 months of purchase.

Sorry for the redundancy, but it is important.

Rob

Whatever works for you. Good luck! Bill has suggested this kind of opportunity for well run companies you'd like to own at a cheaper price.

Craig may be worth checking the Cara archives as Bill has written about this in the past. Maybe it will be in the new book -- March delivery?

Yes, I agree with that logic. And if I get it for that price, it will be the lowest buy since Jan of 2005. I'm pretty comfortable with that at least until March.

You know the best would be if it dips down and gets put to us and then rises up over our buy in price. That would be a double in my book.

Rob.

Personally, I prefer hard cover books for non-fiction. I won't lend out my trading books because they are mucked up with my highlights, notes, arrows, carrot tops, circles, etc. I USED them. Some of my old textbooks are in better condition...whoops.

JoyP, Vadym : thank you for your prompt response...better than my news service !! Have a great weekend.

I was thinking Options for Dummies....

ALOHA !!

Jock ... It's all about power! Fiat is based on the human condition of greed and power and all these World political and banking leaders that meet at the G7 do not spend a lifetime putting themselves into positions of power if they do not intend to use that power!

The American public have been groomed through fiat based socialist government and education(in statist run schools)to accept that paper is more powerful than real money(gold) ... That debt is how you obtain the AMERICAN DREAM! The AMERICAN DREAM is run on DEBT! The entire AMERICAN DREAM speaks volumes as to the corrupt lack of ethics that is an inherent trait of fiat. Nobody owns any property in the USA ... government and banks do! If you do not believe me then skip paying your mortgage or property tax one year and you'll see exactly what you own!! Here's a clue ... it starts with a "N"! It follows that the American public places no value on gold as money so for Congress to get approval to sell off US gold reserves or whats left of the reserves that have not already been swapped, leased and loaned, in my mind, would be "easy peasy"!! Can you count DEEP STORAGE? Americans would now rather have a free ride than face the cold hard truth. Selling US gold reserves will not be a hard sell when the other option is high taxes or no Social Security! The US government will trash the US Treasury to the point of no return and say "Hey, look, Canada and England and other countries have sold off their gold ... So whats the BIG DEAL?" The question still remains about US gold ... WHATS LEFT? I guarantee you it isn't enough to make the slightest dent in the US deficit!!! Are we as Americans really that stupid? Based on how bad things have gotten ... YES-S-S!

Keep voting in the two party aristocracy ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

For those interested in SNCR, goto:

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:SNCR

scroll down to events, today 15 Feb has a webcast from DB

ALOHA !!

I spoke with my Father-In-Law today who is the pool loan biz in San Diego. He used to have about seven lenders he worked with but then a few months ago five lenders decided not to loan money for pools and pulled out. One of the two left just isn't writing any more loans and the other is repackaging the loans to disguise them as home improvement loans. In the past lenders paid a progress payment based on the stage of pool construction. Now in order to disguise the pool loan they disburse only one payment. The tricks of the trade!!!

I wonder if the shorts will hold over the weekend or buy to cover at the close. If they hold it could be interesting.

Any real time price on NOT:v or in (U.S.) NOSOF?

For those who use TD Ameritrade, I have been experimenting with their Strategy Desk software. It is a separate installable desktop application and seems to be more stable than their streamer suite, which is Java based. Best of all, it's free to TD AMERITRADE clients.
http://www.tdameritrade.com/tradingtools/strategydesk.html

I have been able to set up quote sheets (they call them Level I windows) and create custom columns for RSI-7 D,W,M and all RSI's these update in Real-time, something I had been looking for. I was also able to color them so they are Red when RSI70 (maybe I should have them the other way!).

Strategy Desk lets you create complex column formulas and alerts and it will even let you trigger trades based on your custom conditions, something I won't do.

There are some deficiencies I have found so far: You can only have about 1500 symbols in a quote sheet and there is no way to total up a custom column.

For example, I attempted to re-create Worden's T2108 indicator, when is generally the number of NYSE stocks that are trading above their 40-D SMA (an over-bought, over-sold indicator). It was easy to create the formula to produce a 1 or 0 signal for each stock in a quote sheet: (MovingAverage[MA,Close,40,0,D] < Bar[Close,10]), But the Total function only works on certain column types (positions in your portfolio).

So far I can say that I really like this application... I can manually enter trades from the software, and can have multiple quote sheets open (my watch list, the Cara 100, the ND100, etc). Not sure how many are using TD, but if there is any interest, I will can post future discoveries about this tool...

Banks are coming out of the red on a down day.
GS JPM BAC MER
C and UBS having trouble pulling the rabbit out of the hat.
CFC has the rabbit by the ears...so far the bunny doesn't want to see his shadow.
Free Markets???????

Ugh... the blog ate some of the post since I used Greater than, Less than symbols...

I was also able to color them so they are Red when (RSI LT 30) and Green when (RSI GT 70)

not.v
$4.92

Telestar3d - Thanks for posting the SNCR webcast link.
After listening to the webcast I have decided to hold on to my 600 shares even though all technical indicators are bearish.

joey thank you

reference financials, Canadian banks in red despite UBS invcestment research posted on Barron's online with buy ratings on TD and BNS.

EEMTrader: When it comes to Gold I'm not using short term trading rules (like I do with miners).

Just looking at the bigger picture and scaling into a large position.

The rule is: If you make a mistake in a bull market, the market will rescue you.

Gold on an inflation adjusted basis should be climbing towards $2000 now, and it's half. Of all the investments I own, I sleep the soundest with PMs in the account, knowing with Bernake at the helm of the Hindenberg, it's only a matter of time.

I do use the Bollinger bands quite a lot like my CCJ puts today. Hope the chart setup is clear on that one. It's not perfect but it's been working for me.

OT - aurator, thanks for the post on your computer specs yesterday...

Aurator..ok got it..personally I like to buy when the RSI is curling up from below ..investment or trading..but hey..I am an amateur..always something to learn on this site..what to do or not to do..sleep well this weekend. GOLD TO $2000 !!

JogyP, definitely not a lot to like in the chart of SNCR as it’s been beat to a pulp. One has to like the story and believe that they can make progress with their business in Europe. My position is small and looking for a reason to increase, but with this tape patience is the key and waiting is the game. Good luck to us both.

TimG,
Thanks for the Ameritrade Strategy Desk info. I have an account with them, so would like to hear of any other discoveries you make.

ALOHA !!

I think we can safely say that during the Civil War ther was inflation, like all wars. Here is the POG during and after the Civil War over a 20 year period. Look how much gold went up in value. Listed below is the HIGH and LOW for each year at the close on Dec 31st.

All amounts are in USD ...

DATE HIGH LOW CLOSE
12/31/1860 20.671 20.671 20.671
12/31/1861 20.671 20.671 20.671
12/31/1862 27.542 20.774 27.542
12/31/1863 35.448 25.244 31.394
12/31/1864 57.052 31.313 46.356
12/31/1865 48.014 26.585 29.896
12/31/1866 32.191 25.838 27.49
12/31/1867 30.1 27.284 27.593
12/31/1868 30.695 27.309 27.827
12/31/1869 29.298 24.701 24.728
12/31/1870 25.217 22.737 22.893
12/31/1871 23.718 22.402 22.531
12/31/1872 23.849 22.426 23.149
12/31/1873 24.493 21.936 22.789
12/31/1874 23.537 22.531 23.123
12/31/1875 24.235 23.098 23.332
12/31/1876 23.693 22.116 22.116
12/31/1877 22.142 21.187 21.239
12/31/1878 21.239 20.67 20.67
12/31/1879 20.67 20.67 20.67
12/31/1880 20.67 20.67 20.67

In 1860 the POG was at $20.67USD and at the highest during the Civil War in 1864 the POG was at $57.05USD, roughly a 280% gain.

What I am not showing you is that the POG from 1800 to 1861 was exactly $20.67USD every year. After the Civil War period from 1879 to 1933, for 54 years, the POG was at $20.67USD, then in 1933 it went up to $35USD. Its never been the same since and never will be.

How easy would it be to plan for retirement when you have a stable currency where protection of your accumulated wealth was not dependant on politicians operating through a central bank controlled by the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan? The issuing of money is the source of power for the elite private bankers. It all goes back to my original posting of the FIAT KING ... Amel Baer Rothschild, the founder of Rothschild banking empire, who said over 230 years ago "Give me control of a Nation's money and I care not who makes its laws ..."

WHAT CHANGE OBAMA?

site change request - Bill, is there anyway you can make all links automatically open in a new window/tab? I like to keep a permanent window open to billcara.com, but if i click on something by accident, i lose my place on the site sometimes...thank you.

also, does anyone know a program or site where you can set up a screen for RSI-7 D-W-M? It would be a very easy way to expand beyond the Cara 100...

thanks all...

GLD - It's been difficult and not worth the time to micro-ananyze GLD. It's going higher. A pull back to 867 (50 day MA) or so would be a gift.

Gold target $1000+ and HUI to 500+ some time in 2008. I don't like holding the mining stocks when I think we will have a big sell-off in the major averages. Still holding GFI NAK SDRG URPTF but may be sorry.

rob d

If you are using IE 7.0 then just use the wheel button [located between the left and right mouse button] when you have the arrow over the link in the message. It will open up a new window with that link.

2nd...how are positioning for the long weekend?
FXP on sale....but long weekends haven't been healthy.

Tabs - I right click the hot links and choose "open in new tab", in IE7.

Telestar3d - Thanks for posting the SNCR webcast link.
After listening to the webcast and the looking at the RSI and earnings estimates I have decided to purchase 2,000 shares ($18.74) The future looks bright with the int'l exposure. The unusual amount of insider selling normally deters me (two of them have consistently sold unbelivable numbers of shares - although they have millions left) but the forth right presentation persuaded me to step in. I have never used options so I'l just have to keep a close eye on it. Hopefully the price will rise and I can place a stop loss order.

Blog suggestion... would it be possible to create a one liner 'sticky' post at the top of the blog that would open up to contain things like Quasi's imaging info, how to do a Tiny Url, Blog etiquette, any other tech info, maybe something on the basics of the RSI method?

TimG:

Thanks for the insight on TDameritrade.
I need somewhere to start with the TA learning curve.

Regards,
Stu

i do that too, but sometimes when i want to get 4 or 5 in a row, i just click them and they open in the background for me to read later. If you get thekirkreport.com, you will notice that the links in his links post automatically do that. It's not a big deal, just figured I'd ask...

geckojb,

Re: "Does anyone here have a short list of top quality junior golds I can start tracking?"

Here's a list of precious metals miners that I've gleaned from postings on this site. They are extremely varied and arranged in no particular order:

AUY CDE MNEAF.OB UXG AZK KGC RBY EGO PAAS WGW GG SLW GCC TGB EGO GIX NAK ECU SAG.TO KCR.TO WHY.TO PMV.V SGR.TO GQC.V VAL.V

Hope it helps

If you list POG VS war, then Obama voted against devaluing USD.

Granted a small change compared to say Ron Paul, but we have what we want VS what we will get.

We can get Obama and less war. Paul isn't going to be viable as sad as that is.

Cara 100 AET Aetna nice move today!

Showed two of three RSI's <30;

no position.

Safe travels to those on the move this weekend...

2nd,
Taking a chance on a few shares FXP @the close of 87.14.

Have a great weekend all.
Gotta go find a decent options book and study the blog offerings.

GSK turned out alright, a bit ahead of where I would have been had I not stopped out earlier at a profit and been given the opportunity of a lower entry.

BTW Kaimu: Obama has been endorsed by Paul Volcker and Warren Buffett, not exactly irresponsible know-nothings of the usual political stripe.

Craig,
If all of your money was invested in one multinational corporation (let's say it's GE) and you have to hire a new CEO to lead a turnaround would you hire Obama, Clinton or McCain?

Speaking of Gold (Aurating), a Kilogram bar is selling for $ 29,255 and fits nicely in the palm of your hand. I don't buy them that big, but I do go for the Silver 100's (that will ding your toes nicely).

geckojb,
of johojo's list, I think its a good time to look at MNEAF. They've just completed a financing, which typically means they've been beaten down (I don't know why/how this happens, but I suspect that some people short it knowing they can cover). I was able to lower my basis in OZN by waiting until they announced their financing was completed. I have enough MNEAF, so if I add now it will only be for a trade, but they have a few good things going:
1) 49% owner of a producing mine managed by Hochshild who are apparently long established miners in South America
2) They have another significant property in Argentina that has produced some high grade copper holes.
3) Last I heard, Rob McEwen had a big position

Juniors - Here is a site I have used to do some research on juniors. Note it has limited screening tools. Haven't played with it much, but maybe someone industrious here can extract the nuggets it holds. Don't know how up to date it is either.

http://tinyurl.com/22r7g4

2nd the Ron Paul, Obama vote. I voted for RP in '88 as a protest. This time if its Obama v. McCain I'll vote against the war machine. Assuming he beats Hillary which is not a certainty. Texas coming up will go Hillary for sure. All the hispanics I have met in construction never seem too friendly w/ blacks .. I just hope whoever gets in there gets rid of wall street influence in the Treasury and Fed. Never sure if they are trying to help the economy or just trying to help the markets

Can anyone point me in the direction of current economic / cap market research on Japan, please ? thanks, rk

Aurator:
That's approx. $832 per ounce. Attractive price for today.

craig- back from an extended meeting->still holding FXP and worried about it...enjoy the long weekend...

re: juniors

Minefinders MFN was on sale today and hit the long term trendline near 10. They are close to production with 5 million gold ounces in reserve. Sounds like a takeover target. I am waiting to add for the gold correction to run its course, which based on cycles I think will last through the end of March.

Ronbon: Gold Kilo:
1 kilogram = 32.1507466 troy ounces

$909.93 / Toz.

500 fxp @ 87.00
wish me good luck?

Bill,
Don't try to average down, cut your losses and move on. Unless you can come up with a straddle strategy!
Have a great weekend!

Amanda Lang interviews WGI.TO CEO on BNN.ca:

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?sid=205&vid=32224

rjk9

"current economic / cap market research on Japan" These two site are good: http://www.mizuho-sc.com/english/ebond_index.html
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/

Probably one of the best explanations of last week's bond auction failures, and auctions in general.

http://tinyurl.com/2k9f2b

The auctioneer was bidding to the chandelier, and nobody wanted to bid against it last week.

"The fact that the third party underwrote the debt meant its own clients did not buy it. Since they issued it without a LOC, and, no real reason to care about underwriting standards existed. They had two of their major clients, the bond insurers and the rating agencies (both of whom they were throwing tremendous amounts of business at) act natural facilatators to this. The bond insurers gave it the necessary credit rating and the ratings agencies gave it a market through their issuance of a AAA rating."

Looks like tulips are now out of fashion again.

vinod- i will wish you luck, but i have to say i'm a little concerned that FXP drifted away from its usual correlation to QID...'EEM' made a prudent move closing his position at 1142am...the volatility in this ETF (20% range in 5 days) and teh fact that you bought at the low end of the range gives you (IMO) reasonable odds you will have a nice exit, but i would keep an eye on news out of china...just being honest (and still holding myself)...

2nd
Thanks for your advice.
I am slowly learning it
Will keep you inform every month how I am doing
I work as desktop support guy at big financial firm in Boston
They have many trading room and I do there to help solve their computer problem
Each trader has abbot 4 17inch screen they are monitoring or trading
But still do not understand all chats and graph
I do talk to them and they advise me to stay away from option trading
They advise me if I am interested do stock trading but will not which one

I know many mutual fund managers here but they do not talk with me much
Except to fix their computer problem

FranSix,
Thanks for the link to the Amanada Lang interview. She likely knows a lot more about gold mining than most of us. Everytime I see her I think, wow her husband Vince Borg, (VP Communications at Barrick) is one lucky guy. Randall Oliphant presented a very professional and confident story.

Amanda

I was thinking about FXP with the recent price decline, but I will wait until Tuesday to maybe jump aboard. I am hoping HPQ goes up on Tuesday before earnings because I am wanting to short this one. Two day shorts(puts) worked good on me for NVDA and INTC after earnings.

vinod- thanks for the glimpse into your background...i was born in boston (beautiful city), although we moved away before i was a year old...must be tantalizing when you're in the trading rooms...

craig- re SNDK options: i know seamus has already given you an explanation, just going to weigh in with a different slant:

my take on selling puts-> when SNDK hits the AZ, you naturally think about opening a position...instead of buying 1000 shares of SNDK at 25.50 today, you could opt to sell 10 March 25 put contracts (each contract is for 100 shares of the underlying stock) at 1.60->your brokerage deposits $1560 into your trading account ($1600 less a $40 commission)...in return, the person you sold the puts to (in reality, of course, there is no specific matching of buyer and seller) has (until the 3rd Friday in March, when the options expire) the right to sell you 1000 shares of SNDK at the strike price of 25...this will happen only if SNDK trades below 25, of course...let's say the stock drops to 22 within that time period, and the buyer exercises his option->your broker will debit your account for $25,000+commission, while simultaneously transferring 1000 shares of SNDK into the account...being obligated to pay 25/share on a day the stock is trading at 22/share is made easier by the fact that your basis is actually 23.40/share since your basis is actually you are now the proud owner of 1000 shares of SNDK at an effective price of 23.40...if SNDK never trades low enough for the buyer to exercise his option, then you get to keep the $1560 (the premium is yours free and clear)...

mangled the next-to-last sentence above, but you get the idea...

Vinod:

I second 2nd Ave, you are one lucky and smart buyer of FXP!! :)

You bought it right when the FXI hit the top of its rising trendline of the last 6 days

You bought FXP when FXI is about $1.25 from prior strong resistance on a 20day 30 minute chart, and a big gap of air that could act as resistance above that.

You bought FXP when FXI's TICK chart in the last two minutes was actually coming down as people were bailing, thought the volume and price bar showed green

You bought FXP when FXI is less than $3 from its 200dma which could act as resistance, and multiweek resistance at $150.90.

AND at a price within the maximum pain price range if someone was to pin it during options expirations.

I think you are doing GREAT...Fidelity should hire you !!

Just think thru what you will do if FXI gaps up beyond $153.50 on tuesday morning. Its a jumper that one..in either direction.!!

Disclosure: I bought FXP again at the close..didnt get the price that you did. BTW I respect the size of your cajones to put in 50% of your portfoio on a jumper like FXI/FXP.

Sure the guys at those desks didnt give you a tip? :) Sleep well you done good!!

IF FXP gaps up HUGE on Tuesday...oh well...price to pay for the life we chose. ( Godfather III)

2nd - thanks to you (and Seamus earlier) for the "easy to understand" explanations on selling puts. Just curious why you don't use this tool or do you? Is it because you are so bullish on SNDK at the price you buy that you don't want to chance the stock not getting put to you? Thanks in advance

vinod- i guess the 1003pm post says it all, my friend...;)

AdamG- i probably should use it more often...one reason i prefer trading ETFs and stocks is the speed with which i'm able to open/close positions->with options the spreads can be fairly wide, and sometimes the volume isn't there...can only imagine the payoff from selling 100-200 CSCO Feb or Mar 22.50 contracts the morning after earnings...

Vinod

Sincerely wish you the best on your trade.

I would encourage you to risk less in one trade as I recall your total portfolio amount from a posting about a week ago. Estimate you are risking about 43% (EEM trader estimates 50%)of your total portfolio on the FXP trade. You may be young and willing to place such bets at the casino or racetrack, but you can build with your friends here and manage risk better.

A little diversification will help instead of betting latrge amounts percntage wise on one trade. Perhaps you have a tight stop. I hope it works for you.

Reference options, I agree at this time you stay away from them. 90% of all options expire worthless.

We still have a condo in Boston in the North End and enjoy visiting. Have a good weekend.

Bill,

Don't get too upset with Fedex just yet. I myself worked for a trader for many years (and still do to some degree) that has a grand place in the Virgin Islands. It has always been a nightmare to ship anything to him there overnight though. He has a pretty large project going on there and spends a lot of time working on it. But I (actually we) noticed that the people in the islands don't really understand the concept of a New York minute. In fact, we call their time "Island Time". Workers want to come late and leave early (2 O'clock...are they serious?)

One of his trusted employees once told me that "yeah, this is a sunny place for shady people." And I understood completely.

Fedex almost always got my package there on time, but when they couldn't I realized that I could count on the fact that the local customs people had found some sorry excuse to delay my package and it usually involved some percieved minor mistake I made on the documentation.

Sorry, typo correction

should be betting "large" amounts in prior post.

Craig

Responded quickly and simply to your option question during market hours while watching monitors. Appreciate 2nd taking the time after market hours to add more detail for you.

Hit the winter road at market close for a few hours to travel to weekend home in the snow. Warming up after some wine.

Have used complex option trades, but prefer to keep things simple when the odds are on our side. Good luck.

Regarding position size: Isn't it also a function of where he places his stop?

Let's assume a 10K account. 43% is $4300 worth of stock. If he places his stop 10% away from his entry and it gets hit, that's a loss of 430. 5% at risk on a given trade is high for some, but is also the number given by some well-regarded trading coaches as the acceptable max. For a 10K account, 5% is 500. So even accounting for commissions and slippage, he's coming in at under 5% at total capital at risk with a 10% stop (I have no idea where he set it, really, just using that number as an example.)

That assumes that he DOES put a stop in and doesn't do anything stupid like move the stop down to avoid getting hit.

I would also think a 10% stop on a trade like that is a little too wide, but I don't trade that name, so you guys tell me. So he may have less than 5% at risk.

A last caveat: if it is a jumper, as eemtrader says, it may jump right over his stop and he could find himself at a greater than 5% loss on the trade.

It sounds like he wants a little risk, and took it. That's not automatically wrong in my book. But he's getting close....

Good luck vinod. Keep your stops tight and realize you are trading right at the edge of safety.

You guys are great! I appreciate all you do for me and anyone that asks. Seamus, no worries, you explained what you could at the time. I needed the motivation which you provided. I've been meaning to educate myself about using options as Bill suggests to lower my basis and to get my price on the upper end but needed a basic explanation which I found here and the link Bill provided to Yahoo finance which I read, re-read, and read again. Then I concentrated on what I was specifically interested in, which was selling puts.

Made a little dinner of Mexican shrimp from Costco, came back here and My Dear 2nd laid it all out for me. Seriously, words are inadequate to express my appreciation 2nd. I'm not without words often as I'm sure everyone here knows by now. :>) I owe you more than you know.
FXP: I didn't take too big a bite and could have done alright AH but my basis is pretty good so I'll have a relatively relaxing weekend, but it will tough to "get a life" on Monday. Don't feel alone Bill.

Fred: Excellent question framed perfectly. I had a big ol' long answer here based on a bunch of political BS and got rid of all of it to answer specifically. It boils down to who can make this gigantic multinational work all together toward the necessary goals. The old managers are not too dissimilar and are used to the old failing management system that got us in this mess. One manager wants to continue exactly as we have been and ignore the factory infrastructure in order to support using a very expensive energy source the company is essentially stealing from another company using undefendable supply lines which is killing quite a few employees and customers. The other failed miserably at spotting a massive defect in the Iraq energy contract with the GW Bush Company leading the company to the brink of bankruptcy and causing some of those supply line issues for our company and those of our hapless competitors which is leading to a severe customer backlash.

The company needs to hire a progressive manager with the ability to bring this huge multinational together and merge the supply side of the company with the demand side, rebuild the production facilities and inspire the employees to work together to make both them and our customers happy. This manager will need to have the best advice and surround himself with the finest proven and experienced advisors in large enterprises. The old management cannot do these things so this really leaves us only one choice.

Enjoy your weekend. I'll be checking in periodically as, like our fearless leader, I don't seem to have much of a life beyond the capital markets and social equity that has enthralled us all.

I'm interested in getting your thoughts on Sprint-Nextel (S) as a possible long-term buy, It's certainly beaten down, new ceo, new activist board member, new announcement of joint venture with Intel. Upcoming earnings Feb 28th.

HSBC just upgraded to "hold" or something similar.

What does the group think?

tia, Dave

BTW, my interest in Sprint is really more an interest in WCPIX - Profund Mobile Telecom. Tracks 150% of DJ US Mobile Telecom Index, which is highly correlated to Sprint Nextel.

Dave

ALOHA !!

Craig ... I do not consider Paul Volker and Warren Buffet exactly "neutral" when it comes to the Ron Paul issues of large government and intervention. I wrote an article over a year ago entitled "Repeating 1978" where I included the meeting minutes from the Oct 1978 FOMC meeting where Volker sat in with then Chairman Burns discussing how best to manipulate the currency markets on behalf of the USD. As for Buffet ... he would sell his mother to avoid an SEC investigation of General RE and in fact he did hand over his 130mil silver ounces! Now he carpetbags the munis at the US Taxpayers expense. With OBAMA the US Taxpayers are last in line ... With RON PAUL we are first in line! Check the CFR membership list ...

You cannot have meaningful change in the USA until we change who controls our money! Changing which party is spending it does not equal CHANGE to me!

ALOHA !!

I find this very troubling ... To me this is the equivalent of Skilling leaving Enron! We know what happened to Enron not too long after that!

This is very positive for GOLD and SILVER ... the monetary metals. Yet on the same hand this is what is WRONG with America ... This is why OBAMA and any other future President other than RON PAUL is a LAME DUCK!!

READ ON:
Cassandra of U.S. fiscal issues, Walker leaving Government Accountability Office

Government Accountability Chief Resigns

By Elizabeth Williamson
Washington Post

Saturday, February 16, 2008

One of government's chief internal watchdogs resigned yesterday as Comptroller General David M. Walker, an outspoken gadfly and frequent witness on Capitol Hill, announced his plans to lead a new foundation focused on U.S. fiscal responsibility.

Walker has led the Government Accountability Office, Congress's investigative agency, for a decade.

Walker was an outspoken critic of the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare spending -- issues on which the Democratic-led Congress, and Republicans before it, have had trouble building consensus.

In September the administration and the military took issue with a bleak GAO assessment of progress in Iraq; the top military command in Baghdad described the assessment as flawed and "factually incorrect." Despite last-minute changes to address the criticism, the final report cast serious doubt on U.S. efforts to build a functioning democracy in Iraq.

At the time, Walker told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: "Given the fact that significant progress has not been made in improving the living conditions of the Iraqis on a day-to-day basis with regard to things that all citizens care about -- safe streets, clean water, reliable electricity, a variety of other basic things ... I think you'd have to say it's dysfunctional -- the government is dysfunctional."

Most of Walker's tenure was spent with Republicans in control of both the White House and Congress, and he has frequently irritated both bodies with his dire warnings on reining in spending.

During that time, "I would give Walker high marks for trying to stand up for GAO priorities even though he had a Congress that was trying to block him and that didn't want to know what the White House was up to," said Scott Lilly, senior fellow at the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress.

"He handled it as forcefully as he could, given that the Congress that was funding him was discouraging him."

The Walker-era GAO filed, but then declined to appeal, legal action to force Vice President Cheney to provide notes and information about meetings he held with energy companies while developing U.S. energy policy. A related suit wound up before the Supreme Court, which upheld the vice president's refusal to make the information public.

Walker's resignation takes effect March 12. He will lead the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a new think tank whose mission, according to its Web site, is "to enhance public understanding of the nature and urgency of selected key sustainability challenges that threaten America's future," including "unsustainable" growth in entitlement spending, and energy consumption.

The GAO's chief operating officer, Gene Dodaro, will serve as acting comptroller general until a successor for Walker is found.

"The one thing that bothers me the most, given this president's record on nominations: It's not likely we're going to get a new comptroller before next year," Lilly said.

"That's a very sad thing, given how much institutional leadership means toward improving oversight over government."END

Goodbye US Dollar ...

To all my friend

I started to work here 18 month ago
And first time I read wall street journal (I have heard about it before)
And I got interested about market
I decided that I have not fail in life so far, by working hard and pointing to aim like a laser beam

I did paper trade for one year also spends some money subscribing Cramer’s auction alert and few other site. By the way in auction Cramer was down but I was up in my paper trade in three-month I subscribe

I will follow advice to limit my size next time

I found this Bill Cara’s web site about six-month ago, and I will say
As far as I am concern this is the best site to me so far

I do know that I am against all those Harvard educated type people with Billons of dollars worth supplicated computer system

There is interested story about how I got my money

Before that I was working at Computer Company

ALOHA !!

ON DON COXE
Has anybody heard of ALGAE bio-fuel? Bush wants "grass" ... well he's close ... Hey MELLO YELLO ... try going back to your ol' POTHEAD days and use HEMP! HA!!!

Last year I posted a chart showing grain supplies down to NINE WEEKS ... DUH !!! What's everyone waiting for a FIVE WEEK supply?

All this reinforces my plan from 1996 to buy and live on food producing land. I consider that a put option on SAFEWAY and a call option on HUNGER! Start a garden people or buy Hawaii property and a tent! Oprah knows best!!!

Commodities are REAL WEALTH ... Thats what I have been saying for a long time and I am glad Don Coxe thinks "real wealth" has a future! GO BACK TO BASICS ... That's where the BIG MONEY is going if they can unwind their GM and FNM positions! These are long multi-decade cycles that the two party aristocracy and the idiots at the EU have foolishly made even longer with their lame-brain policies of wealth export! Look at the troubles in Germany now and think goodbye EURO! Like GM ... AS GOES GERMANY SO GOES THE EURO!

Back to my usual motto ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Some day I might end up in a USSA gulag for my unpatriotic anti-fadderland writings here! Do I get a FEDERAL ID CARD in May Dick?

Vinod...you probably saved and multiplied all that money trading and investing. :)

Hey..I am with you..I would like to see FXI gap down and FXP gap Up come tuesday morning...

If you dont mind sharing...and a lot here dont share their rationale for entering trades and exiting them for proprietary reasons or for whatever reason ..

What prompted you to take the FXP trade at that great price?

I need to learn from you, instead of being worried for you.I only posted becuase I had the same trade.

:) Eric

ALOHA !!

The signs of an impending HAWAII real estate boom are all around me! It'll be more than just JAPAN this time!

Food producing land is better than GOLD! I suspect a lot of people in the World will find that out the hard way in the coming years. Only three of the dozens of analysts I read have mentioned that so far. One is Marc Faber and the others are Doug Casey and Richard Maybury.

YOU HEARD IT FIRST HERE ...

Kaimu - you on Maui? I'm heading there for 2 weeks on Mon. Would be interested in seeing what you're doing..

Dave

My wife used to work for company called Lasertron in MA
My father in law used to work for corning in New York
Corning brought Lasertron
My wife had 35k in her 401k
Now this 401k is manage by corning and on of option was, you can buy corning stock in your 401k
While my wife working there at corning stock
Went from 25 to 100 to around 300
And split to 100
All the worker at corning were saying it will go to 300 again
My father in law advise my wife to move all her 401k to corning stock
I oppose the move but I love her and always go along h with her decision
She transfer her 35k in corning stock
Stock went down to $1
And her 401k is worth now around 350
My father in low felt bad, I nervier blame any one and stood by my wife. Life goes on
We are young and if god wants we will make money
But on Christmas time my well to do father in low brought 7000 corning stock for around #1 and gave certification to my wife as a gift
Year and half ago we sold this @ 24
During this time she was still buying corning stock through payroll deduction
So, she got lots of stock at $1
Because of this her 401k has triple
Here is my story

ALOHA !!

DaveB ... I am on the Big Island ... Hawaii! Maui is a nice place to R&R though!! Give my regards to Willie!